South West Norfolk in the 2024 United Kingdom general election

2024 United Kingdom general election
in South West Norfolk

4 July 2024
South West Norfolk
First party Second party Third party   Lab Ref Candidate Terry Jermy Liz Truss Toby McKenzie Party Labour Conservative Reform UK Popular vote 11,847 11,217 9,958 Prozentualer Anteil 26.7% 25.3% 22.4% Swing 8.6 pp 43.7 pp New
MP before election Liz Truss Conservative Elected MP Terry Jermy Labour

An election took place in the East Anglia constituency of South West Norfolk on 4 July 2024, as part of the 2024 United Kingdom general election. Liz Truss, the former UK prime minister was standing for re-election as MP and, despite her having won 70% of the vote at the previous election, there were serious expectations she might lose the seat and become the "Portillo moment" of the election.

On 2 July a national poll of voters by Portland Communications showed that Truss was the politician most people (28%) would like to see lose their seat.

Truss did go on to lose, with a 43.7% fall in the Conservative vote share, and The Spectator indeed labelled the result a "Portillo moment".

Background

Truss had been the Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) for South West Norfolk since 2010. At the 2019 general election she'd achieved a majority of 26,195 over her nearest rival, making it the 11th safest Conservative seat in the country. Serving as Prime Minister for only 49 days in 2022, Truss's tenure caused chaos in the financial markets. South West Norfolk elected a Labour MP for the first time in the landslide of 1945, like most of the seats in Norfolk. Since 1964 it has been a Conservative constituency.

Though there were a number of major Conservative politicians, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt, who were almost certain to lose their seats in 2024, Truss was the only former prime minister standing in the election and it was believed her defeat could be "the ultimate Portillo moment". South West Norfolk had been held by the Conservatives since 1964 and would need a 25% swing to the Labour Party in the 2024 election for them to lose the seat.

A Survation poll on 22 June predicted that every Conservative in the Norfolk area would lose their seat.

Candidates

Liz Truss (Conservative) had been the sitting MP for the constituency since 2010.

James Bagge (Independent) had been part of the local Conservative Party that had tried to stop Truss from being selected for the seat in 2009. A former High Sheriff of Norfolk, Bagge was unhappy with the lack of attention Truss had given to the constituency and had resigned as Deputy Lieutenant of Norfolk in January 2024 in preparation to stand against her in the forthcoming election.

Terry Jermy (Labour) was a councillor for Thetford on Breckland District Council and Norfolk County Council.

Pallavi Devulapalli (Green) was a councillor on King's Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council, a GP and her party's national spokesperson on health.

Toby McKenzie (Reform) was a former teacher.

Josie Radcliffe (Liberal Democrats) was a councillor for Downham East on King's Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council and had stood for her party in the 2019 general election.

Campaign

When the election was announced, Truss listed her local achievements in a Facebook post, including securing £20 million of regeneration funding for the town of Thetford. She went to the constituency to campaign in person and, as a former prime minister, was accompanied by close protection officers. She visited a number of towns and villages in the constituency, also attending a D-Day commemoration event in Pickenham. She avoided the one hustings event that took place.

The other candidates tried to make the election into a referendum about Truss's record. They argued that Truss had not spent much time in on constituency issues and had been a poor constituency MP. A spokesperson for Truss pointed out she held constituency surgeries, but didn't advertise them for security reasons.

Jermy received little support from the national Labour Party campaign and had to raise £15,000 for his local campaign via crowdfunding.

Bagge launched his campaign, as a "moderate" Independent candidate, on the same date in April 2024 that Truss launched her latest book Ten Years to Save the West. He received endorsements from former Conservative ministers, David Gauke and Rory Stewart. Former minister Dominic Grieve turned up in the constituency to campaign with him.

McKenzie could only campaign for Reform at the weekends because he had a full time job. He said he was realistically hoping to raise the profile of Reform in the constituency.

On 30 June, there were mixed reports about the likely result. A polling prediction by the Financial Times showed that Labour could beat the Conservatives into second place by a small 1.7% margin, with 32.1% of the vote. Many voters were unenthusiastic or undecided. Though Bagge was unlikely to win the seat as an Independent, it was felt that the traditional Conservative vote might be split, allowing the Labour candidate to win.

Results

General election 2024: South West Norfolk

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Labour	Terry Jermy	11,847	26.7
	Conservative	Liz Truss	11,217	25.3
	Reform UK	Toby McKenzie	9,958	22.4
	Independent	James Bagge	6,282	14.2
	Liberal Democrats	Josie Ratcliffe	2,618	5.9
	Green	Pallavi Devulapalli	1,838	4.1
	Monster Raving Loony	Earl Elvis of East Anglia	338	0.8
	Heritage	Gary Conway	160	0.4
	Communist	Lorraine Douglas	77	0.2
Majority			630	1.4
Turnout			44,335	59.3
	Labour win (new boundaries)

South West Norfolk was the final result to be declared in Norfolk and Truss arrived at the count on Friday morning with only seconds to spare. She lost the seat to Labour by 640 votes and did not give a concession speech.