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2017 Western Australian state election

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Western Australian state election, 2017
← 2013 11 March 2017
All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly
and all 36 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council
30 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Mark McGowan Colin Barnett Brendon Grylls
Party Labor Liberal National
Leader since 23 January 2012 (2012-01-23) 6 August 2008 (2008-08-06) 9 August 2016 (2016-08-09)
Leader's seat Rockingham Cottesloe Pilbara (lost seat)
Last election 21 seats 31 seats 7 seats
Seats before 21 seats 30 seats 7 seats
Seats won 41 seats 13 seats 5 seats
Seat change Increase20 Decrease17 Decrease2
Premier before election

Colin Barnett
Liberal

Elected Premier

Mark McGowan
Labor

The 2017 Western Australian state election was held on Saturday 11 March 2017 to elect members to the Parliament of Western Australia, including all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 36 seats in the Legislative Council. The eight and a half year incumbent Liberal–WA National government, led by Premier Colin Barnett, was defeated by the Labor opposition, led by Opposition Leader Mark McGowan.

The four main media networks covering the election, the ABC, Sky News, Seven News and Nine News, all called the election for Labor within two hours after polls closed. McGowan will succeed Barnett, and become the 30th Premier of Western Australia.[1]

It is currently predicted that Labor will hold 41 of the 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly which would be the largest held by a governing party or coalition in Western Australian history and represents the best ever election result achieved for the WA Labor Party.[2] The Legislative Council votes are yet to be counted.

Results

Legislative Assembly

Western Australian state election, 11 March 2017 (counting still continuing)[3][4]
Legislative Assembly
<< 2013–2021 >>

Enrolled voters 1,593,222
Votes cast Turnout
Informal votes Informal 4.4 −1.6
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes % Swing Seats Ändern Sie
  Labor 42.4 +9.2 41 +20
  Liberal 31.4 –15.7 12 –19
  Greens 8.7 +0.3 0 ±0
  National 5.4 –0.7 5 –2
  One Nation 4.9 +4.9 0 ±0
  Christians 2.1 +0.3 0 ±0
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 1.3 +1.3 0 ±0
  Micro Business 1.0 +1.0 0 ±0
  Matheson for WA 0.5 +0.5 0 ±0
  Animal Justice 0.2 +0.2 0 ±0
  Flux the System! 0.2 +0.2 0 ±0
  Family First 0.1 –0.5 0 ±0
  Socialist Alliance 0.1 +0.1 0 ±0
  Liberal Democrats 0.0 +0.0 0 ±0
  Independent 1.9 –1.0 0 ±0
  Seats in doubt 1 K.A.
Total     59  

By the morning of 12 March, two thirds of votes had been counted and seven lower house seats were in doubt, showing that the Labor Party had won at least 36 seats, well above the 30 required for a majority, which the ABC predicted to increase to 41. Meanwhile, the Liberals and WA Nationals had won only 10 and five seats respectively, with a further three expected to be retained by the Liberal Party. The Australian Greens and Pauline Hanson's One Nation failed to win any seats, despite the popularity of the latter in earlier opinion polls, receiving at least 86,000 and 48,000 votes respectively.[5]

The swing against the government affected traditionally safe seats. Consequently, six government ministers lost their seats in the Legislative Assembly while one lost his seat in the Legislative Council.[6]

Seats changing parties

Seat Pre-2017 Swing Post-2017
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Balcatta   Liberal Chris Hatton 7.1 12.7 5.6 David Michael Labor  
Belmont   Liberal Glenys Godfrey 1.0 12.7 11.6 Cassie Rowe Labor  
Bicton   Liberal Matt Taylor1 10.0 11.8 1.8 Lisa O'Malley Labor  
Bunbury   Liberal John Castrilli 12.2 23.3 11.1 Don Punch Labor  
Burns Beach   Liberal Albert Jacob2 11.3 13.9 2.5 Mark Folkard Labor  
Darling Range   Liberal Tony Simpson 13.1 18.9 5.8 Barry Urban Labor  
Forrestfield   Liberal Nathan Morton 2.2 11.7 9.5 Stephen Price Labor  
Jandakot Liberal Joe Francis 18.3 19.3 1.0 Yaz Mubarakai Labor
Joondalup Liberal Jan Norberger 10.4 11.0 0.6 Emily Hamilton Labor
Kalamunda   Liberal John Day 10.3 13.0 2.8 Matthew Hughes Labor  
Kingsley Liberal Andrea Mitchell 14.0 14.7 0.7 Jessica Stojkovski Labor
Morley   Liberal Ian Britza 4.7 16.4 11.7 Amber-Jade Sanderson Labor  
Mount Lawley   Liberal Michael Sutherland 8.9 12.2 3.3 Simon Millman Labor  
Murray-Wellington Liberal Murray Cowper 12.0 12.9 1.0 Robyn Clarke Labor
Perth   Liberal Eleni Evangel 2.8 14.6 11.8 John Carey Labor  
Pilbara National Brendon Grylls 11.5 13.7 2.3 Kevin Michel Labor  
Southern River   Liberal Peter Abetz 10.9 19.0 8.1 Terry Healy Labor  
Swan Hills   Liberal Frank Alban 3.7 17.9 14.1 Jessica Shaw Labor  
Wanneroo   Liberal Paul Miles 11.0 18.6 7.7 Sabine Winton Labor  
1 Matt Taylor was the member for the seat of Bateman, but contested Bicton after losing preselection to Dean Nalder, the member for the abolished seat of Alfred Cove.
2 Albert Jacob was the member for the abolished seat of Ocean Reef, but instead contested Burns Beach, a seat containing much of the same territory.

Seats in doubt

Seat Incumbent Swing Challenger
Party Member Margin Margin Candidate Party
Kalgoorlie National Wendy Duncan 3.2 v LIB n/a Awaiting preference count
  • Members in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
  • Labor also retained two seats—Collie-Preston and West Swan—which were notionally Liberal-held after the redistribution. The Liberal Party retained Hillarys, which was being contested by the incumbent MLA Rob Johnson as an independent.

Legislative Council

Western Australian state election, 11 March 2017 (counting still continuing)[7][8]
Legislative Council
<< 2013–2021 >>

Enrolled voters 1,593,222
Votes cast Turnout
Informal votes Informal 3.1 +0.2
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes % Swing Seats Ändern Sie
  Labor 41.4 +8.9  
  Liberal 27.5 −20.1  
  One Nation 8.0 +8.0  
  Greens 7.7 −0.5  
  National 4.4 −0.5  
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 2.2 +0.5  
  Christians 1.9 −0.1  
  Liberal Democrats 1.8 +1.8  
  Animal Justice 1.0 +1.0  
  Family First 0.8 −0.6  
  Daylight Saving 0.6 +0.6  
  Micro Business 0.5 +0.5  
  Matheson for WA 0.4 +0.4  
  Flux the System! 0.4 +0.4  
  Fluoride Free WA 0.3 +0.3  
  Socialist Alliance 0.1 +0.1  
  Independent 1.0 −0.7  
Total     36  

Legislative Council results to date suggest that the incoming government will have 16 of the 36 seats and will need to rely upon either cross-bench or opposition support to pass legislation.[9]

Date of election

Barnaby C, protecting the Carnaby's black cockatoo habitat and an Anti Roe 8 supporter appeared at a number of media events during the election campaign

On 3 November 2011, the Government of Western Australia introduced fixed four-year terms for the Legislative Assembly, with the elections to be held on the second Saturday in March.[10][11] The first election under the new law was the 2013 election. Previously, under electoral reforms of the Burke Government in 1987, four-year maximum terms were adopted for the Legislative Assembly, and fixed four-year terms for the Legislative Council.[12]

Seats held

Lower house

At the 2013 election, Labor won 21 seats, the Liberals won 31 seats and the Nationals won 7 seats. No seats were won by independents.

Upper house

At the 2013 election, the Liberals won 17 seats, Labor won 11 seats, the Nationals won five seats, the Greens won two seats and the Shooters and Fishers won one seat.

Western Australia's Legislative Council is divided into six regions. Three are based in Perth, while three are rural. Each region elects six members to the Legislative Council. These areas are not of similar population sizes, with rural areas receiving from one and a half to about six times the effective membership of the metropolitan regions.

The Western Australian rural population dropped from about 12.1% to 10.7% of the state's enrolled electors after the 2008 election. Election analyst Antony Green predicted this would make it more difficult for the Liberal or Labor parties (who typically perform better in Perth than rural areas) to increase their presence within the Legislative Council.[13]

Redistribution

A redistribution of electoral boundaries for the lower house was completed on 27 November 2015. This resulted in a net gain of one seat for the Liberal Party from Labor. The Liberal seats of Alfred Cove, Eyre and Ocean Reef, the Labor seat of Gosnells and the National seat of Wagin were abolished. Five new seats were created (or re-created): the notionally Liberal seats of Bicton (mostly replacing Alfred Cove) and Burns Beach (mostly replacing Ocean Reef), the notionally Labor seats of Baldivis (created from parts of Kwinana and Warnbro) and Thornlie (replacing Gosnells), and the notionally National seat of Roe (merging Wagin and Eyre). The Labor seats of Collie-Preston and West Swan became notionally Liberal.[14]

Retiring MPs

Members who have announced they will not re-nominate at the 2017 election:

Liberal

National

Pendulum

The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin post-election on a two-candidate-preferred basis,[21] grouped as marginal, safe etc as defined by the Australian Electoral Commission.[22] This pendulum takes the redistribution into account. One sitting member, retiring Wagin Nationals MP Terry Waldron, does not appear in this pendulum: his seat was combined with Eyre to form Roe, a seat with a National margin that will also be contested by Eyre Liberal MP Graham Jacobs, who is listed as the defending member below. Two Liberal members, Dean Nalder (Alfred Cove, now re-named Bicton) and Matt Taylor (Bateman), are contesting each other's seats; this is reflected below. Retiring members are listed in italics.

Liberal/National seats
Marginal
West Swan Rita Saffioti LIB 0.9 ppt
Belmont Glenys Godfrey LIB 1.0 ppt
Forrestfield Nathan Morton LIB 2.2 ppt
Perth Eleni Evangel LIB 2.8 ppt
Collie-Preston Mick Murray LIB 2.9 ppt
Kalgoorlie Wendy Duncan NAT 3.2 ppt v LIB
Swan Hills Frank Alban LIB 3.7 ppt
Morley Ian Britza LIB 4.7 ppt
Moore Shane Love NAT 5.9 ppt v LIB
Fairly safe
Balcatta Chris Hatton LIB 7.1 ppt
Warren-Blackwood Terry Redman NAT 7.2 ppt v LIB
Central Wheatbelt Mia Davies NAT 8.9 ppt v LIB
Mount Lawley Michael Sutherland LIB 8.9 ppt
Safe
Bicton Matt Taylor LIB 10.0 ppt
Kalamunda John Day LIB 10.3 ppt
Joondalup Jan Norberger LIB 10.4 ppt
North West Central Vince Catania NAT 10.5 ppt v LIB
Geraldton Ian Blayney LIB 10.9 ppt v NAT
Southern River Peter Abetz LIB 10.9 ppt
Wanneroo Paul Miles LIB 11.0 ppt
Burns Beach Albert Jacob LIB 11.3 ppt
Pilbara Brendon Grylls NAT 11.5 ppt
Murray-Wellington Murray Cowper LIB 12.0 ppt
Bunbury John Castrilli LIB 12.2 ppt
Riverton Mike Nahan LIB 12.7 ppt
Dawesville Kim Hames LIB 12.7 ppt
Darling Range Tony Simpson LIB 13.1 ppt
Kingsley Andrea Mitchell LIB 14.0 ppt
Hillarys Rob Johnson LIB 16.0 ppt
Roe Graham Jacobs NAT 16.7 ppt v LIB
Scarborough Liza Harvey LIB 17.3 ppt
Jandakot Joe Francis LIB 18.3 ppt
Carine Tony Krsticevic LIB 18.3 ppt
Nedlands Bill Marmion LIB 19.1 ppt
Very safe
Churchlands Sean L'Estrange LIB 20.0 ppt
South Perth John McGrath LIB 20.0 ppt
Cottesloe Colin Barnett LIB 21.1 ppt
Vasse Libby Mettam LIB 21.2 ppt
Bateman Dean Nalder LIB 23.1 ppt
Labor seats
Marginal
Midland Michelle Roberts ALP 0.5 ppt
Butler John Quigley ALP 1.0 ppt
Albany Peter Watson ALP 1.0 ppt
Thornlie Chris Tallentire ALP 1.8 ppt
Cannington Bill Johnston ALP 2.1 ppt
Willagee Peter Tinley ALP 2.5 ppt
Maylands Lisa Baker ALP 2.7 ppt
Girrawheen Margaret Quirk ALP 2.8 ppt
Victoria Park Ben Wyatt ALP 4.0 ppt
Kwinana Roger Cook ALP 4.3 ppt
Cockburn Fran Logan ALP 4.6 ppt
Mirrabooka Janine Freeman ALP 4.6 ppt
Bassendean Dave Kelly ALP 5.1 ppt
Kimberley Josie Farrer ALP 5.1 ppt
Fairly safe
Baldivis new seat ALP 6.4 ppt
Mandurah David Templeman ALP 7.7 ppt
Armadale Tony Buti ALP 9.6 ppt
Safe
Warnbro Paul Papalia ALP 10.6 ppt
Rockingham Mark McGowan ALP 13.2 ppt
Fremantle Simone McGurk ALP 15.4 ppt

Opinion polling

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
LIB NAT ALP GRN OTH LIB ALP
9 March 2017 ReachTEL[23] 33.9% 6.0% 41.8% 6.5% 11.8% 46% 54%
6–9 March 2017 Newspoll[23] 32% 5% 41% 7% 15% 46% 54%
1–3 March 2017 Galaxy[24] 31% 5% 40% 8% 16% 46% 54%
27 February 2017 ReachTEL[25] 34.6% 6.8% 35.2% 10.7% 12.7% 48% 52%
February 2017 ReachTEL[26] 35.4% 8.4% 35% 6% 15.1% 50% 50%
January 2017 Newspoll[27] 30% 5% 38% 9% 18% 46% 54%
November 2016 Newspoll[28] 34% 6% 41% 9% 10% 48% 52%
October 2016 ReachTEL[29] 35.9% 6.1% 36.7% 7.7% 13.6% 48% 52%
October 2016 Roy Morgan[30] 34% 5% 36.5% 12.5% 12% 47.5% 52.5%
August 2016 Roy Morgan[31] 34.5% 6.5% 35.5% 12.5% 11% 49% 51%
May 2016 Roy Morgan[32] 36.5% 7% 34% 12.5% 10% 51% 49%
Mar–May 2016 Newspoll[33] 40% 42% 11% 7% 46% 54%
March 2016 Roy Morgan[34] 33.5% 8% 37% 14.5% 7% 48% 52%
Mar 2016 ReachTEL[35] 37% 5% 39% 13% 5% 44% 56%
Oct–Dec 2015 Newspoll[36] 37% 5% 42% 10% 6% 47% 53%
9–15 Oct 2015 Morgan[37] 37.5% 4.5% 32% 13% 13% 51.5% 48.5%
28–31 Aug 2015 Morgan 35% 7% 34% 15% 9% 50% 50%
Apr–Jun 2015 Newspoll 33% 7% 33% 14% 13% 48% 52%
Jan–Mar 2015 Newspoll 34% 6% 35% 14% 11% 48% 52%
Oct–Dec 2014 Newspoll 34% 8% 33% 15% 10% 50% 50%
Jul–Sep 2014 Newspoll 35% 6% 31% 15% 13% 50% 50%
Apr–Jun 2014 Newspoll 34% 6% 27% 17% 16% 50% 50%
Oct–Dec 2013 Newspoll 36% 8% 33% 13% 10% 51% 49%
2013 election 47.1% 6.1% 33.1% 8.4% 5.3% 57.3% 42.7%
4–7 Mar 2013 Newspoll 48% 6% 32% 8% 6% 59.5% 40.5%
Better premier polling^
Liberal
Barnett 		Labor
McGowan
6–9 Mar 2017[23] 37% 45%
Oct 2016[28] 29% 47%
Oct 2016[30] 41% 59%
Sep 2016 (RM)[31] 43% 57%
Mar–May 2016[33] 32% 46%
Mar 2016 (RT)[35] 39% 61%
Oct–Dec 2015[36] 36% 41%
Apr–Jun 2015 37% 43%
Jan–Mar 2015 38% 44%
Oct–Dec 2014 39% 40%
Jul–Sep 2014 38% 41%
Apr–Jun 2014 36% 43%
Oct–Dec 2013 37% 43%
2013 election - -
4–7 Mar 2013 52% 31%
Polling conducted by Roy Morgan Research (RM), ReachTEL (RT),
or Newspoll (all others).
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
Satisfaction polling^
Barnett McGowan
Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
6–9 Mar 2017[23] 34% 57% 45% 40%
Nov 2016[28] 28% 61% 46% 33%
Mar–May 2016[33] 31% 58% 51% 28%
Oct–Dec 2015[36] 33% 54% 47% 32%
Apr–Jun 2015 36% 57% 49% 33%
Jan–Mar 2015 38% 53% 53% 28%
Oct–Dec 2014 37% 49% 48% 27%
Jul–Sep 2014 32% 56% 47% 29%
Apr–Jun 2014 34% 56% 49% 31%
Oct–Dec 2013 34% 54% 51% 22%
2013 election - - - -
4–7 Mar 2013 51% 36% 49% 29%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

Newspaper endorsements

Newspaper Endorsement
The Australian

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0047AB;" data-sort-value="Liberal Party of Australia" |

Liberal[38]
The Australian Financial Review
The Sunday Times

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #DE3533;" data-sort-value="Australian Labor Party" |

Labor
The West Australian

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #DE3533;" data-sort-value="Australian Labor Party" |

Labor[39]

See also

References

  1. ^ Sprague, Julie-anne; Ingram, Tess (11 March 2017). "WA election: Labor storms to victory". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 11 March 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  2. ^ Antony Green (16 March 2017). "The Role of One-Vote One-Value Electoral Reforms in Labor's Record WA Victory". ABC News (Australia). Retrieved 16 March 2017.
  3. ^ "2017 State General Election Results". Western Australian Electoral Commission. 11 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
  4. ^ "WA Election 2017". ABC News. 11 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
  5. ^ "WA Election 2017 - WA Results". ABC News. 12 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
  6. ^ "WA Election: Seventh minister lost in WA Liberals rout". ABC News. 15 March 2017. Retrieved 16 March 2017.
  7. ^ "2017 State General Election Results". Western Australian Electoral Commission. 11 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
  8. ^ "WA Election 2017". ABC News. 11 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
  9. ^ "Legislative Council Results". ABC News. 16 March 2017. Retrieved 16 March 2017.
  10. ^ "New laws fix state election dates". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 26 January 2012.
  11. ^ Antony Green (8 February 2011). "Future election dates". Blogs.abc.net.au. Retrieved 26 January 2012.
  12. ^ Phillips, Harry C. J. Electoral Law in the State of Western Australia: An Overview. Western Australian Electoral Commission, 2013. ISBN 9780980417340, page 113 (pdf 126). Retrieved 10 March 2017
  13. ^ Green, Antony (6 March 2017). "The growing bias against Perth and the South-West in the Legislative Council". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 7 March 2017.
  14. ^ Green, Antony. "2015 Western Australian state redistibution". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
  15. ^ "Bunbury MLA John Castrilli to retire at next State election". The West Australian. 18 August 2016. Retrieved 14 March 2016.
  16. ^ "Joe Spagnolo: Hunt for WA Liberal leader to replace Colin Barnett after deputy Kim Hames confirms he will not contest next state election". Perth Now. 2 August 2014. Retrieved 9 August 2014.
  17. ^ "Who will make the team as Libs plan for state election?".
  18. ^ "Veteran MP to retire from politics". Perth Now. 17 July 2016. Retrieved 27 October 2015.
  19. ^ "MP Wendy Duncan reflects on career as prospective candidates circle in Kalgoorlie". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
  20. ^ "Waldron to retire from politics". The West Australian. 25 November 2014. Retrieved 25 November 2014.
  21. ^ "2017 Western Australian Election - Electoral Pendulum". 3 January 2017. Retrieved 24 January 2017.
  22. ^ "Elections – Frequently Asked Questions : What is a marginal seat?". Australian Electoral Commission. 6 May 2016. Retrieved 12 February 2017.
  23. ^ a b c d "Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia".
  24. ^ "Galaxy: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia". 4 March 2017.
  25. ^ Brendan Foster (3 March 2017). "ReachTEL: 50-50 in Western Australia".
  26. ^ "WA election poll shows One Nation vote on the slide".
  27. ^ "Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia".
  28. ^ a b c "Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Western Australia".
  29. ^ "Power poll blow as voters reject power privatisation".
  30. ^ a b "Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW; Barnett in trouble in Western Australia while Andrews Government still riding high in Victoria despite CFA union dispute". Roy Morgan Research. 10 October 2016.
  31. ^ a b "Now 'too close to call' in New South Wales as Baird support slips while ALP has slight lead in Western Australia and a clear lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. 8 September 2016.
  32. ^ "L-NP in front in NSW & WA and ALP well in front in Victoria but parties dead-level in Queensland after LNP elect new Leader Tim Nicholls". Roy Morgan Research. 1 June 2016.
  33. ^ a b c Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia – The Poll Bludger 12 May 2016
  34. ^ "ALP increases support in all Australian States. Queensland electors narrowly turn down new election after Referendum on 4 year terms successful". Roy Morgan Research. 1 April 2016.
  35. ^ a b Barnett and Liberals take big hit in poll with McGowan now preferred leader: The West Australian 19 March 2016 - using undedided excluded at ReachTEL: 56-44 to Labor in WA - The Poll Bludger 19 March 2016
  36. ^ a b c Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia – The Poll Bludger 4 January 2016
  37. ^ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States are close". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  38. ^ "Too much at stake in WA" (Subscription Required). The Australian. Retrieved 11 March 2017.
  39. ^ "WA deserves the chance for a fresh start". The West Australian. The West Australian. 9 March 2017. Retrieved 11 March 2017.
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