2017 Western Australian state election
![]() | This article documents a current election. Information may change rapidly as the election progresses until official results have been published. Initial news reports may be unreliable, and the last updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. |
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All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly and all 36 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council 30 Assembly seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2017 Western Australian state election was held on Saturday 11 March 2017 to elect members to the Parliament of Western Australia, including all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 36 seats in the Legislative Council. The eight and a half year incumbent Liberal–WA National government, led by Premier Colin Barnett, was defeated by the Labor opposition, led by Opposition Leader Mark McGowan.
The four main media networks covering the election, the ABC, Sky News, Seven News and Nine News, all called the election for Labor within two hours after polls closed. McGowan will succeed Barnett, and become the 30th Premier of Western Australia.[1]
It is currently predicted that Labor will hold 41 of the 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly which would be the largest held by a governing party or coalition in Western Australian history and represents the best ever election result achieved for the WA Labor Party.[2] The Legislative Council votes are yet to be counted.
Results
Legislative Assembly
Western Australian state election, 11 March 2017 (counting still continuing)[3][4] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Enrolled voters | 1,593,222 | |||||
Votes cast | Turnout | |||||
Informal votes | Informal | 4.4 | −1.6 | |||
Summary of votes by party | ||||||
Party | Primary votes | % | Swing | Seats | Ändern Sie | |
Labor | 42.4 | +9.2 | 41 | +20 | ||
Liberal | 31.4 | –15.7 | 12 | –19 | ||
Greens | 8.7 | +0.3 | 0 | ±0 | ||
National | 5.4 | –0.7 | 5 | –2 | ||
One Nation | 4.9 | +4.9 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Christians | 2.1 | +0.3 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | 1.3 | +1.3 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Micro Business | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Matheson for WA | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Animal Justice | 0.2 | +0.2 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Flux the System! | 0.2 | +0.2 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Family First | 0.1 | –0.5 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Socialist Alliance | 0.1 | +0.1 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Liberal Democrats | 0.0 | +0.0 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Independent | 1.9 | –1.0 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Seats in doubt | 1 | K.A. | ||||
Total | 59 |
By the morning of 12 March, two thirds of votes had been counted and seven lower house seats were in doubt, showing that the Labor Party had won at least 36 seats, well above the 30 required for a majority, which the ABC predicted to increase to 41. Meanwhile, the Liberals and WA Nationals had won only 10 and five seats respectively, with a further three expected to be retained by the Liberal Party. The Australian Greens and Pauline Hanson's One Nation failed to win any seats, despite the popularity of the latter in earlier opinion polls, receiving at least 86,000 and 48,000 votes respectively.[5]
The swing against the government affected traditionally safe seats. Consequently, six government ministers lost their seats in the Legislative Assembly while one lost his seat in the Legislative Council.[6]
Seats changing parties
Seat | Pre-2017 | Swing | Post-2017 | ||||||
Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Member | Party | ||||
Balcatta | Liberal | Chris Hatton | 7.1 | 12.7 | 5.6 | David Michael | Labor | ||
Belmont | Liberal | Glenys Godfrey | 1.0 | 12.7 | 11.6 | Cassie Rowe | Labor | ||
Bicton | Liberal | Matt Taylor1 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 1.8 | Lisa O'Malley | Labor | ||
Bunbury | Liberal | John Castrilli | 12.2 | 23.3 | 11.1 | Don Punch | Labor | ||
Burns Beach | Liberal | Albert Jacob2 | 11.3 | 13.9 | 2.5 | Mark Folkard | Labor | ||
Darling Range | Liberal | Tony Simpson | 13.1 | 18.9 | 5.8 | Barry Urban | Labor | ||
Forrestfield | Liberal | Nathan Morton | 2.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | Stephen Price | Labor | ||
Jandakot | Liberal | Joe Francis | 18.3 | 19.3 | 1.0 | Yaz Mubarakai | Labor | ||
Joondalup | Liberal | Jan Norberger | 10.4 | 11.0 | 0.6 | Emily Hamilton | Labor | ||
Kalamunda | Liberal | John Day | 10.3 | 13.0 | 2.8 | Matthew Hughes | Labor | ||
Kingsley | Liberal | Andrea Mitchell | 14.0 | 14.7 | 0.7 | Jessica Stojkovski | Labor | ||
Morley | Liberal | Ian Britza | 4.7 | 16.4 | 11.7 | Amber-Jade Sanderson | Labor | ||
Mount Lawley | Liberal | Michael Sutherland | 8.9 | 12.2 | 3.3 | Simon Millman | Labor | ||
Murray-Wellington | Liberal | Murray Cowper | 12.0 | 12.9 | 1.0 | Robyn Clarke | Labor | ||
Perth | Liberal | Eleni Evangel | 2.8 | 14.6 | 11.8 | John Carey | Labor | ||
Pilbara | National | Brendon Grylls | 11.5 | 13.7 | 2.3 | Kevin Michel | Labor | ||
Southern River | Liberal | Peter Abetz | 10.9 | 19.0 | 8.1 | Terry Healy | Labor | ||
Swan Hills | Liberal | Frank Alban | 3.7 | 17.9 | 14.1 | Jessica Shaw | Labor | ||
Wanneroo | Liberal | Paul Miles | 11.0 | 18.6 | 7.7 | Sabine Winton | Labor |
- 1 Matt Taylor was the member for the seat of Bateman, but contested Bicton after losing preselection to Dean Nalder, the member for the abolished seat of Alfred Cove.
- 2 Albert Jacob was the member for the abolished seat of Ocean Reef, but instead contested Burns Beach, a seat containing much of the same territory.
Seats in doubt
Seat | Incumbent | Swing | Challenger | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Candidate | Party | ||||
Kalgoorlie | National | Wendy Duncan | 3.2 v LIB | n/a | Awaiting preference count |
- Members in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
- Labor also retained two seats—Collie-Preston and West Swan—which were notionally Liberal-held after the redistribution. The Liberal Party retained Hillarys, which was being contested by the incumbent MLA Rob Johnson as an independent.
Legislative Council
Western Australian state election, 11 March 2017 (counting still continuing)[7][8] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Enrolled voters | 1,593,222 | |||||
Votes cast | Turnout | |||||
Informal votes | Informal | 3.1 | +0.2 | |||
Summary of votes by party | ||||||
Party | Primary votes | % | Swing | Seats | Ändern Sie | |
Labor | 41.4 | +8.9 | ||||
Liberal | 27.5 | −20.1 | ||||
One Nation | 8.0 | +8.0 | ||||
Greens | 7.7 | −0.5 | ||||
National | 4.4 | −0.5 | ||||
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | 2.2 | +0.5 | ||||
Christians | 1.9 | −0.1 | ||||
Liberal Democrats | 1.8 | +1.8 | ||||
Animal Justice | 1.0 | +1.0 | ||||
Family First | 0.8 | −0.6 | ||||
Daylight Saving | 0.6 | +0.6 | ||||
Micro Business | 0.5 | +0.5 | ||||
Matheson for WA | 0.4 | +0.4 | ||||
Flux the System! | 0.4 | +0.4 | ||||
Fluoride Free WA | 0.3 | +0.3 | ||||
Socialist Alliance | 0.1 | +0.1 | ||||
Independent | 1.0 | −0.7 | ||||
Total | 36 |
Legislative Council results to date suggest that the incoming government will have 16 of the 36 seats and will need to rely upon either cross-bench or opposition support to pass legislation.[9]
Date of election
On 3 November 2011, the Government of Western Australia introduced fixed four-year terms for the Legislative Assembly, with the elections to be held on the second Saturday in March.[10][11] The first election under the new law was the 2013 election. Previously, under electoral reforms of the Burke Government in 1987, four-year maximum terms were adopted for the Legislative Assembly, and fixed four-year terms for the Legislative Council.[12]
Seats held
Lower house
At the 2013 election, Labor won 21 seats, the Liberals won 31 seats and the Nationals won 7 seats. No seats were won by independents.
Upper house
At the 2013 election, the Liberals won 17 seats, Labor won 11 seats, the Nationals won five seats, the Greens won two seats and the Shooters and Fishers won one seat.
Western Australia's Legislative Council is divided into six regions. Three are based in Perth, while three are rural. Each region elects six members to the Legislative Council. These areas are not of similar population sizes, with rural areas receiving from one and a half to about six times the effective membership of the metropolitan regions.
The Western Australian rural population dropped from about 12.1% to 10.7% of the state's enrolled electors after the 2008 election. Election analyst Antony Green predicted this would make it more difficult for the Liberal or Labor parties (who typically perform better in Perth than rural areas) to increase their presence within the Legislative Council.[13]
Redistribution
A redistribution of electoral boundaries for the lower house was completed on 27 November 2015. This resulted in a net gain of one seat for the Liberal Party from Labor. The Liberal seats of Alfred Cove, Eyre and Ocean Reef, the Labor seat of Gosnells and the National seat of Wagin were abolished. Five new seats were created (or re-created): the notionally Liberal seats of Bicton (mostly replacing Alfred Cove) and Burns Beach (mostly replacing Ocean Reef), the notionally Labor seats of Baldivis (created from parts of Kwinana and Warnbro) and Thornlie (replacing Gosnells), and the notionally National seat of Roe (merging Wagin and Eyre). The Labor seats of Collie-Preston and West Swan became notionally Liberal.[14]
Retiring MPs
Members who have announced they will not re-nominate at the 2017 election:
Liberal
- John Castrilli MLA (Bunbury) – announced 14 March 2016[15]
- Kim Hames MLA (Dawesville) – announced 2 August 2014[16]
- Liz Behjat MLC (North Metropolitan) – lost preselection[17]
- Barry House MLC (South West) – announced 27 October 2015[18]
National
- Wendy Duncan MLA (Kalgoorlie) – announced 4 December 2015[19]
- Terry Waldron MLA (Wagin) – announced 25 November 2014[20]
Pendulum
The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin post-election on a two-candidate-preferred basis,[21] grouped as marginal, safe etc as defined by the Australian Electoral Commission.[22] This pendulum takes the redistribution into account. One sitting member, retiring Wagin Nationals MP Terry Waldron, does not appear in this pendulum: his seat was combined with Eyre to form Roe, a seat with a National margin that will also be contested by Eyre Liberal MP Graham Jacobs, who is listed as the defending member below. Two Liberal members, Dean Nalder (Alfred Cove, now re-named Bicton) and Matt Taylor (Bateman), are contesting each other's seats; this is reflected below. Retiring members are listed in italics.
Labor seats | |||
Marginal | |||
Midland | Michelle Roberts | ALP | 0.5 ppt |
Butler | John Quigley | ALP | 1.0 ppt |
Albany | Peter Watson | ALP | 1.0 ppt |
Thornlie | Chris Tallentire | ALP | 1.8 ppt |
Cannington | Bill Johnston | ALP | 2.1 ppt |
Willagee | Peter Tinley | ALP | 2.5 ppt |
Maylands | Lisa Baker | ALP | 2.7 ppt |
Girrawheen | Margaret Quirk | ALP | 2.8 ppt |
Victoria Park | Ben Wyatt | ALP | 4.0 ppt |
Kwinana | Roger Cook | ALP | 4.3 ppt |
Cockburn | Fran Logan | ALP | 4.6 ppt |
Mirrabooka | Janine Freeman | ALP | 4.6 ppt |
Bassendean | Dave Kelly | ALP | 5.1 ppt |
Kimberley | Josie Farrer | ALP | 5.1 ppt |
Fairly safe | |||
Baldivis | new seat | ALP | 6.4 ppt |
Mandurah | David Templeman | ALP | 7.7 ppt |
Armadale | Tony Buti | ALP | 9.6 ppt |
Safe | |||
Warnbro | Paul Papalia | ALP | 10.6 ppt |
Rockingham | Mark McGowan | ALP | 13.2 ppt |
Fremantle | Simone McGurk | ALP | 15.4 ppt |
Opinion polling
Date | Firm | Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | NAT | ALP | GRN | OTH | LIB | ALP | ||
9 March 2017 | ReachTEL[23] | 33.9% | 6.0% | 41.8% | 6.5% | 11.8% | 46% | 54% |
6–9 March 2017 | Newspoll[23] | 32% | 5% | 41% | 7% | 15% | 46% | 54% |
1–3 March 2017 | Galaxy[24] | 31% | 5% | 40% | 8% | 16% | 46% | 54% |
27 February 2017 | ReachTEL[25] | 34.6% | 6.8% | 35.2% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 48% | 52% |
February 2017 | ReachTEL[26] | 35.4% | 8.4% | 35% | 6% | 15.1% | 50% | 50% |
January 2017 | Newspoll[27] | 30% | 5% | 38% | 9% | 18% | 46% | 54% |
November 2016 | Newspoll[28] | 34% | 6% | 41% | 9% | 10% | 48% | 52% |
October 2016 | ReachTEL[29] | 35.9% | 6.1% | 36.7% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 48% | 52% |
October 2016 | Roy Morgan[30] | 34% | 5% | 36.5% | 12.5% | 12% | 47.5% | 52.5% |
August 2016 | Roy Morgan[31] | 34.5% | 6.5% | 35.5% | 12.5% | 11% | 49% | 51% |
May 2016 | Roy Morgan[32] | 36.5% | 7% | 34% | 12.5% | 10% | 51% | 49% |
Mar–May 2016 | Newspoll[33] | 40% | 42% | 11% | 7% | 46% | 54% | |
March 2016 | Roy Morgan[34] | 33.5% | 8% | 37% | 14.5% | 7% | 48% | 52% |
Mar 2016 | ReachTEL[35] | 37% | 5% | 39% | 13% | 5% | 44% | 56% |
Oct–Dec 2015 | Newspoll[36] | 37% | 5% | 42% | 10% | 6% | 47% | 53% |
9–15 Oct 2015 | Morgan[37] | 37.5% | 4.5% | 32% | 13% | 13% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
28–31 Aug 2015 | Morgan | 35% | 7% | 34% | 15% | 9% | 50% | 50% |
Apr–Jun 2015 | Newspoll | 33% | 7% | 33% | 14% | 13% | 48% | 52% |
Jan–Mar 2015 | Newspoll | 34% | 6% | 35% | 14% | 11% | 48% | 52% |
Oct–Dec 2014 | Newspoll | 34% | 8% | 33% | 15% | 10% | 50% | 50% |
Jul–Sep 2014 | Newspoll | 35% | 6% | 31% | 15% | 13% | 50% | 50% |
Apr–Jun 2014 | Newspoll | 34% | 6% | 27% | 17% | 16% | 50% | 50% |
Oct–Dec 2013 | Newspoll | 36% | 8% | 33% | 13% | 10% | 51% | 49% |
2013 election | 47.1% | 6.1% | 33.1% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 57.3% | 42.7% | |
4–7 Mar 2013 | Newspoll | 48% | 6% | 32% | 8% | 6% | 59.5% | 40.5% |
Liberal Barnett |
Labor McGowan | |
---|---|---|
6–9 Mar 2017[23] | 37% | 45% |
Oct 2016[28] | 29% | 47% |
Oct 2016[30] | 41% | 59% |
Sep 2016 (RM)[31] | 43% | 57% |
Mar–May 2016[33] | 32% | 46% |
Mar 2016 (RT)[35] | 39% | 61% |
Oct–Dec 2015[36] | 36% | 41% |
Apr–Jun 2015 | 37% | 43% |
Jan–Mar 2015 | 38% | 44% |
Oct–Dec 2014 | 39% | 40% |
Jul–Sep 2014 | 38% | 41% |
Apr–Jun 2014 | 36% | 43% |
Oct–Dec 2013 | 37% | 43% |
2013 election | - | - |
4–7 Mar 2013 | 52% | 31% |
Polling conducted by Roy Morgan Research (RM), ReachTEL (RT), or Newspoll (all others). ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. |
Barnett | McGowan | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |
6–9 Mar 2017[23] | 34% | 57% | 45% | 40% |
Nov 2016[28] | 28% | 61% | 46% | 33% |
Mar–May 2016[33] | 31% | 58% | 51% | 28% |
Oct–Dec 2015[36] | 33% | 54% | 47% | 32% |
Apr–Jun 2015 | 36% | 57% | 49% | 33% |
Jan–Mar 2015 | 38% | 53% | 53% | 28% |
Oct–Dec 2014 | 37% | 49% | 48% | 27% |
Jul–Sep 2014 | 32% | 56% | 47% | 29% |
Apr–Jun 2014 | 34% | 56% | 49% | 31% |
Oct–Dec 2013 | 34% | 54% | 51% | 22% |
2013 election | - | - | - | - |
4–7 Mar 2013 | 51% | 36% | 49% | 29% |
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. |
Newspaper endorsements
Newspaper | Endorsement | |
---|---|---|
The Australian
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0047AB;" data-sort-value="Liberal Party of Australia" | |
Liberal[38] | |
The Australian Financial Review | ||
The Sunday Times
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #DE3533;" data-sort-value="Australian Labor Party" | |
Labor | |
The West Australian
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #DE3533;" data-sort-value="Australian Labor Party" | |
Labor[39] |
See also
References
- ^ Sprague, Julie-anne; Ingram, Tess (11 March 2017). "WA election: Labor storms to victory". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 11 March 2017.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Antony Green (16 March 2017). "The Role of One-Vote One-Value Electoral Reforms in Labor's Record WA Victory". ABC News (Australia). Retrieved 16 March 2017.
- ^ "2017 State General Election Results". Western Australian Electoral Commission. 11 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
- ^ "WA Election 2017". ABC News. 11 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
- ^ "WA Election 2017 - WA Results". ABC News. 12 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
- ^ "WA Election: Seventh minister lost in WA Liberals rout". ABC News. 15 March 2017. Retrieved 16 March 2017.
- ^ "2017 State General Election Results". Western Australian Electoral Commission. 11 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
- ^ "WA Election 2017". ABC News. 11 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
- ^ "Legislative Council Results". ABC News. 16 March 2017. Retrieved 16 March 2017.
- ^ "New laws fix state election dates". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 26 January 2012.
- ^ Antony Green (8 February 2011). "Future election dates". Blogs.abc.net.au. Retrieved 26 January 2012.
- ^ Phillips, Harry C. J. Electoral Law in the State of Western Australia: An Overview. Western Australian Electoral Commission, 2013. ISBN 9780980417340, page 113 (pdf 126). Retrieved 10 March 2017
- ^ Green, Antony (6 March 2017). "The growing bias against Perth and the South-West in the Legislative Council". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 7 March 2017.
- ^ Green, Antony. "2015 Western Australian state redistibution". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ^ "Bunbury MLA John Castrilli to retire at next State election". The West Australian. 18 August 2016. Retrieved 14 March 2016.
- ^ "Joe Spagnolo: Hunt for WA Liberal leader to replace Colin Barnett after deputy Kim Hames confirms he will not contest next state election". Perth Now. 2 August 2014. Retrieved 9 August 2014.
- ^ "Who will make the team as Libs plan for state election?".
- ^ "Veteran MP to retire from politics". Perth Now. 17 July 2016. Retrieved 27 October 2015.
- ^ "MP Wendy Duncan reflects on career as prospective candidates circle in Kalgoorlie". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
- ^ "Waldron to retire from politics". The West Australian. 25 November 2014. Retrieved 25 November 2014.
- ^ "2017 Western Australian Election - Electoral Pendulum". 3 January 2017. Retrieved 24 January 2017.
- ^ "Elections – Frequently Asked Questions : What is a marginal seat?". Australian Electoral Commission. 6 May 2016. Retrieved 12 February 2017.
- ^ a b c d "Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia".
- ^ "Galaxy: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia". 4 March 2017.
- ^ Brendan Foster (3 March 2017). "ReachTEL: 50-50 in Western Australia".
- ^ "WA election poll shows One Nation vote on the slide".
- ^ "Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia".
- ^ a b c "Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Western Australia".
- ^ "Power poll blow as voters reject power privatisation".
- ^ a b "Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW; Barnett in trouble in Western Australia while Andrews Government still riding high in Victoria despite CFA union dispute". Roy Morgan Research. 10 October 2016.
- ^ a b "Now 'too close to call' in New South Wales as Baird support slips while ALP has slight lead in Western Australia and a clear lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. 8 September 2016.
- ^ "L-NP in front in NSW & WA and ALP well in front in Victoria but parties dead-level in Queensland after LNP elect new Leader Tim Nicholls". Roy Morgan Research. 1 June 2016.
- ^ a b c Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia – The Poll Bludger 12 May 2016
- ^ "ALP increases support in all Australian States. Queensland electors narrowly turn down new election after Referendum on 4 year terms successful". Roy Morgan Research. 1 April 2016.
- ^ a b Barnett and Liberals take big hit in poll with McGowan now preferred leader: The West Australian 19 March 2016 - using undedided excluded at ReachTEL: 56-44 to Labor in WA - The Poll Bludger 19 March 2016
- ^ a b c Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia – The Poll Bludger 4 January 2016
- ^ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States are close". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
- ^ "Too much at stake in WA" (Subscription Required). The Australian. Retrieved 11 March 2017.
- ^ "WA deserves the chance for a fresh start". The West Australian. The West Australian. 9 March 2017. Retrieved 11 March 2017.
External links
- Early voting centres at Western Australian Electoral Commission
- Voting Systems in WA at Western Australian Electoral Commission