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=== Adaptation approaches ===
=== Adaptation approaches ===
[[File:Juncture_of_three_main_rivers_in_Ningbo_China.jpg|alt=alt text|right|thumb|Pictured here is the conversion of three large rivers in Ningbo, China. The country is taking substantial measures to combat the flash floods predicted to intensify in the future.]]
China has experienced a seven-fold increase in the frequency of floods since the 1950s, rising every decade. The frequency of extreme rainfall has increased and is predicted to continue to increase in the western and southern parts of China. The country is currently undertaking efforts to reduce the threat of these floods (which have the potential effect of completely destroying vulnerable communities), largely focusing on improving the infrastructure responsible for tracking and maintaining adequate water levels. That being said, the country is promoting the extension of technologies for water allocation and water-saving mechanisms. In the country's National Climate Change Policy Program, one of the goals specifically set out is to enhance the ability to bear the impacts of climate change, as well as to raise the public awareness on climate change. China's National Climate Change Policy states that it will integrate climate change policies into the national development strategy. In China, this national policy comes in the form of its "Five Year Plans for Economic and Social Development". China's Five Year Plans serve as the strategic road maps for the country's development. The goals spelled out in the Five Year Plans are mandatory as government officials are held responsible for meeting the targets.<ref name="Smith">King et al. 2012. [http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research/library/The%20Response%20of%20China%20India%20and%20Brazil%20to%20Climate%20Change_%20A%20perspective%20for%20South%20Africa.pdf "The Response of China, India, and Brazil to Climate Change."] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140509001158/http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research/library/The%20Response%20of%20China%20India%20and%20Brazil%20to%20Climate%20Change_%20A%20perspective%20for%20South%20Africa.pdf|date=2014-05-09}} Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. University of Oxford.</ref>
China has experienced a seven-fold increase in the frequency of floods since the 1950s, rising every decade. The frequency of extreme rainfall has increased and is predicted to continue to increase in the western and southern parts of China. The country is currently undertaking efforts to reduce the threat of these floods (which have the potential effect of completely destroying vulnerable communities), largely focusing on improving the infrastructure responsible for tracking and maintaining adequate water levels. That being said, the country is promoting the extension of technologies for water allocation and water-saving mechanisms. In the country's National Climate Change Policy Program, one of the goals specifically set out is to enhance the ability to bear the impacts of climate change, as well as to raise the public awareness on climate change. China's National Climate Change Policy states that it will integrate climate change policies into the national development strategy. In China, this national policy comes in the form of its "Five Year Plans for Economic and Social Development". China's Five Year Plans serve as the strategic road maps for the country's development. The goals spelled out in the Five Year Plans are mandatory as government officials are held responsible for meeting the targets.<ref name="Smith">King et al. 2012. [http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research/library/The%20Response%20of%20China%20India%20and%20Brazil%20to%20Climate%20Change_%20A%20perspective%20for%20South%20Africa.pdf "The Response of China, India, and Brazil to Climate Change."] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140509001158/http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research/library/The%20Response%20of%20China%20India%20and%20Brazil%20to%20Climate%20Change_%20A%20perspective%20for%20South%20Africa.pdf|date=2014-05-09}} Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. University of Oxford.</ref>


Revision as of 13:31, 24 March 2021

China Greenhouse emission of gas from 1990 - 2016

Climate change in China is having major effects on the economy, society and the environment.[1] China is the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions, through an energy infrastructure heavily focused on fossil fuels and coal. Also, other industries, such as a burgeoning construction industry and industrial manufacturing contribute heavily to carbon emissions. However, like other developing countries, on a per-capita basis, China's carbon emissions were considerably less than countries like the United States: as of 2016, they were the 51st most per capita emitter.[2]

China is suffering from negative effects of global warming in agriculture, forestry and water resources, and is expected to continue to see increased impacts. China's government is taking some measures to increase renewable energy, and other decarbonization efforts, vowing to be carbon neutral by 2060 by adopting “more vigorous policies and measures.”[3]

Greenhouse gas emissions

This section is an excerpt from Greenhouse gas emissions by China.[edit]
China has the most total annual emissions (area of rectangle) of any nation, and has higher than average per capita emissions.[4]
Cumulatively over time, China is the second-largest contributor nation to global economic damage from emissions, following the U.S.[5]
China's greenhouse gas emissions are the largest of any country in the world both in production and consumption terms, and stem mainly from coal burning, including coal power, coal mining,[6] and blast furnaces producing iron and steel.[7] When measuring production-based emissions, China emitted over 14 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases in 2019,[8] 27% of the world total.[9][10] When measuring in consumption-based terms, which adds emissions associated with imported goods and extracts those associated with exported goods, China accounted for 13 gigatonnes (Gt) or 25% of global emissions in 2019.[11] According to the Carbon Majors Database, Chinese state coal production alone accounts for 14% of historic global emissions.[12]

Impacts on the natural environment

China has and will suffer some of the effects of global warming, including sea level rise, glacier retreat and air pollution.

Temperature and weather changes

There has also been an increased occurrence of climate-related disasters such as drought and flood, and the amplitude is growing. These events have grave consequences for productivity when they occur, and also create serious repercussions for the natural environment and infrastructure. This threatens the lives of billions and aggravates poverty.

A study published in 2017, using continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations from 1961 to 2010, found a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China, with the total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decreasing about 50% from 1961 to 2010. The reduction in severe weather occurrences correlated strongly with the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon.[13][14]

China observed a ground average temperature increase of 0.24℃/decade from 1951 to 2017, exceeding the global rate. The average precipitation of China was 641.3  mm in 2017, 1.8% more than the average precipitation of previous years. There was an annual increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide from 1990 to 2016. The annual mean concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide at Wanliguan Station were 404.4 ppm, 1907 ppb, and 329.7 ppb separately in 2016, slightly higher than the global mean concentration in 2016.[15]

Current Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for China (1980-2016)
Predicted future Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for China (2071-2100)

Sea level rise

The sea level rise was 3.3mm/year from 1980 to 2017.[15]

China's first National Assessment of Global Climate Change, released in the 2000s by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), states that China already suffers from the environmental impacts of climate change: increase of surface and ocean temperature, rise of sea level.[16][better source needed] Temperatures in the Tibetan Plateau of China are rising four times faster than anywhere else (data from 2011).[17] Rising sea level is an alarming trend because China has a very long and densely populated coastline, with some of the most economically developed cities such as Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou situated there. Chinese research has estimated that a one-meter rise in sea level would inundate 92,000 square kilometers of China's coast, thereby displacing 67 million people.[18][better source needed]

Climate change caused an increase in sea level, threatening to impair the functions of harbors.[19][better source needed]

Rising sea levels affect China’s coastal land.  Cities along the coast such as Shanghai, only 3–5 meters above sea level leaves its 18 million residents vulnerable.  Sea levels in Victoria Harbor in Hong Kong have already risen .12 meters in the last 50 years.[20]

Ecosystems

Climate change increases forest belt limits and frequencies of pests and diseases, decreases frozen earth areas, and threatens to decrease glacial areas in northwest China. The vulnerability of ecosystems may increase due to future climate change.[19][better source needed]

Desertification Control Project, Ningxia China

China is home to 17,300 species of plants and animals: 667 vertebrates, ancient flora and fauna. Due to rising global temperatures, within the next century 20-30% of species will go extinct.[21]

More than one fourth of China is covered by desert, which is growing due to desertification.  Desertification in China destroys farmland, biodiversity, and exacerbates poverty.[22]

Water resources

Climate change decreased total water resources in North China while increasing total water resources in South China. There were more floods, drought, and extreme weather events. There may be a big impact in the spatial and temporal distribution in China's water resources, increasing extreme weather events and natural disasters.[19]

Glacier melting in the Northern Region of China causes flooding in the upper parts of the Yangtze River.  This ruins soil and arable land.  The glacial melting causes lower parts of the Yangtze River to have lower volumes of water, also disrupting farming.[20]

Furthermore, climate change will worsen the uneven distribution of water resources in China. Outstanding rises in temperature would exacerbate evapotranspiration, intensifying the risk of water shortage for agricultural production in the North. Although China's southern region has an abundance of rainfall, most of its water is lost due to flooding. As the Chinese government faces challenges managing its expanding population, an increased demand for water to support the nation's economic activity and people will burden the government. In essence, a water shortage is indeed a large concern for the country.[18][better source needed]

Overfishing and rising ocean temperatures are killing the coral reefs in the South China Sea.  This lowers biodiversity, and negatively affects the fish market economy in China.[20]

  • Yellow Sea
    Yellow Sea
  • Shanghai
    Shanghai
  • Tianjin and Yingkou
    Tianjin and Yingkou

Impacts on people

Health impacts

Lastly, climate change could endanger human health by increasing outbreaks of disease and their transmission. After floods, for example, infectious diseases such as diarrhea and cholera are all far more prevalent. These effects would exacerbate the degradation of the ecologically fragile areas in which poor communities are concentrated pushing thousands back into poverty.[23][better source needed]

Some regions in China will be exposed to a 50 percent higher malaria transmission probability rate (Béguin et al., 2011).[24][better source needed]

Economic impacts

Agriculture

The negative effects on China's agriculture caused by climate change have appeared. There was an increase in agricultural production instability, severe damages caused by high temperature and drought, and lower production and quality in the prairie. In the near future, climate change may cause negative influences, causing a reduction of output in wheat, rice, and corn, and change the agricultural distribution of production.[19][better source needed] China is also dealing with agricultural issues due global demands of products such as soybeans. This global demand is causing coupled effects that stretch across oceans which in turn is affecting other countries. Environmental factor#Socioeconomic Drivers

Fishing Industry

Due to overfishing, pollution, global temperature increase, and change in pH to the world's oceans, the South China Sea is suffering from a lack in biodiversity among marine life.[20] Historically, China was the world's largest capture fisheries and aquaculture producer, making the fish market a significant part of the Chinese economy.[25] Due to the environmental impacts, coral reefs in the South China Sea are dying, decreasing the amount of marine life in the South China Sea. Fisheries are not able to catch the amount of fish that was once brought to the fish market, making that part of the economy suffer. The amount of fishing in China is unsustainable, and therefore declining.[26] The fishing industry supplies a significant amount of jobs, exports, and domestic consumption, which will disappear if the fishing industry collapses.

Mitigation and adaptation

Mitigation approaches

Main article: Greenhouse gas emissions by China § Mitigation

Renewable energy

This section is an excerpt from Energy policy of China.[edit]
This paragraph is an excerpt from Renewable energy in China.[edit]
China is the world's leader in electricity production from renewable energy sources, with over triple the generation of the second-ranking country, the United States. China's renewable energy sector is growing faster than its fossil fuels and nuclear power capacity, and is expected to contribute 43% of global renewable capacity growth.[27] China's total renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000 GW in 2021, accounting for 43.5 per cent of the country's total power generation capacity, 10.2 percentage points higher than in 2015. The country aims to have 80 per cent of its total energy mix come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060, and achieve a combined 1,200 GW of solar and wind capacity by 2030.[27] In 2023, it was reported that China was on track to reach 1,371 gigawatts of wind and solar by 2025, five years ahead of target due to new renewables installations breaking records.[28] In 2024, it was reported that China would reach its target by the end of July 2024, six years ahead of target.[29]

Mitigation examples

Internally in the provinces of China, there are various projects held aiming to solve emissions reduction and energy-saving, which is a big step in tackling climate change. Beijing is developing in replacing traditional bulbs with energy-saving light bulbs. Provinces such as Rizhao and Dezhou are promoting solar energy in the building heating system. Besides, Tsinghua University launched a lead on low-carbon city development. The city is currently working with Tsinghua University to improve the urban environment by introducing renewable energy into industries and households.[30]

Adaptation approaches

alt text
Pictured here is the conversion of three large rivers in Ningbo, China. The country is taking substantial measures to combat the flash floods predicted to intensify in the future.

China has experienced a seven-fold increase in the frequency of floods since the 1950s, rising every decade. The frequency of extreme rainfall has increased and is predicted to continue to increase in the western and southern parts of China. The country is currently undertaking efforts to reduce the threat of these floods (which have the potential effect of completely destroying vulnerable communities), largely focusing on improving the infrastructure responsible for tracking and maintaining adequate water levels. That being said, the country is promoting the extension of technologies for water allocation and water-saving mechanisms. In the country's National Climate Change Policy Program, one of the goals specifically set out is to enhance the ability to bear the impacts of climate change, as well as to raise the public awareness on climate change. China's National Climate Change Policy states that it will integrate climate change policies into the national development strategy. In China, this national policy comes in the form of its "Five Year Plans for Economic and Social Development". China's Five Year Plans serve as the strategic road maps for the country's development. The goals spelled out in the Five Year Plans are mandatory as government officials are held responsible for meeting the targets.[31]

Policies and legislation

Climate change has not been a priority to China until recently (around 2008), when this issue was brought to a higher platform. Chinese state affairs operate as a central system, not a federal system. For example, the central government makes decisions and the local governments fulfill them. As a result, the local governments receive constraints and are measured by their performance from the central governments. Solving environmental issues such as climate change requires long-term investments in money, resources, and time. It is believed that these efforts will be detrimental to economic growth, which is of particular importance to the promotion of local government executives. This is why local governments have no engagement in addressing this issue.[32]

In China's first NDC submission, key areas were identified for climate change adaptation, including agriculture, water resources, and vulnerable areas. It also mentioned that an adaptation strategy should be implemented through regional strategies.[33] Flooding in cities is being tackled by collecting and recycling rainwater.[34] In 2013, China issued its National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation and set goals of reducing vulnerability, strengthening monitoring, and raising public awareness. Efforts on implementation have been put in adapting forestry, meteorological management, infrastructure, and risk planning.[35]

The development of technology and economy in China share more responsibility in tackling climate change. After facing the 2011 smog issue, China's government launched an extensive strategy, which is to improve air quality by reducing the growth of coal consumption. Nevertheless, the trade war that involved China as one of the leading participants has resulted in the loss of control of polluting industries, especially in the steel and cement during 2018. Fortunately, nearly 70 multinational and local brands implemented the monitoring data by The Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs (IPE) in China, stimulating nearly 8,000 suppliers approaching regulatory violations.[36]

As of 2019 although China is on course to meet its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement that target is not compatible with limiting global warming to 2 °C.[37]

National carbon trading scheme

This section is an excerpt from Chinese national carbon trading scheme.[edit]

The Chinese national carbon trading scheme is an intensity-based trading system for carbon dioxide emissions by China, which started operating in 2021.[38][39] This emission trading scheme (ETS) creates a carbon market where emitters can buy and sell emission credits. The scheme will allow carbon emitters to reduce emissions or purchase emission allowances from other emitters. Through this scheme, China will limit emissions while allowing economic freedom for emitters.

China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and many major Chinese cities had severe air pollution through the 2010s,[40] with the situation improving in the 2020s.[41] The scheme is run by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment,[38] which eventually plans to limit emissions from six of China's top carbon dioxide emitting industries.[42] In 2021 it started with its power plants, and covers 40% of China's emissions, which is 15% of world emissions.[43] China was able to gain experience in drafting and implementation of an ETS plan from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where China was part of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).[40] China's national ETS is the largest of its kind,[43] and will help China achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement.[40] In July 2021, permits were being handed out for free rather than auctioned, and the market price per tonne of CO2e was around RMB 50, roughly half of the EU ETS and the UK ETS but better compared to the US, which has no formal cap-and-trade program.[43]

International cooperation

Main article: Debate over China's economic responsibilities for climate change mitigation

Attitudes of the Chinese government on climate change, specifically regarding the role of China in climate change action, have shifted notably in recent years. Historically, climate change was largely seen as a problem that has been created by and should be solved by industrialized countries; in 2015, China said it supports the "common but differentiated responsibilities" principle,[44] which holds that since China is still developing, its abilities and capacities to reduce emissions are comparatively lower than developed countries'.

In 2018, the government has urged countries to continue to support the Paris agreement, even in the wake of the United States' withdrawal in 2017.[45]

On September 22, 2020, Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced at the UN General Assembly in New York that his country will end its contribution to global heating and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 by adopting “more vigorous policies and measures.”[3]

Both internationally and within the People's Republic of China, there has been an ongoing debate over China's economic responsibilities for climate change mitigation. The argument has been made that China has a crucial role to play in keeping global warming under 2 °C, and that this cannot be accomplished unless coal use, which accounts for the majority of China's emissions,[46] falls sharply.[47][48]

The People's Republic of China is an active participant in the climate change talks and other multilateral environmental negotiations, and claims to take environmental challenges seriously but is pushing for the developed world to help developing countries to a greater extent.

However the Belt and Road Initiative is constructing coal-fired power stations (for example Emba Hunutlu power station in Turkey) thus increasing greenhouse gas emissions from other countries.[49]

China is currently a member of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Paris Agreement. As a part of this agreement it has agreed to the 2016 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), which outlines specific goals and targets for the upcoming five years to help mitigate the effects of climate change.[50] China, along with 196 countries, agreed to help reduce rising global temperatures and set a goal temperature of 1.5 degrees celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. China has agreed to its NDC goal of reducing the CO2 intensity of its gross domestic product by 60% by 2030.[50]

China is a part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, BASIC Alliance.  This alliance is an international commitment to work in partnership with Brazil, South Africa, and India.[51] BASIC’s international commitments and goals are to be carbon net-zero before 2060, and to help achieve the global goal from the UNFCCC of reducing emissions to 1.5% degrees celsius before pre-industrial levels.[51]

Society and culture

Public opinion

According to a study from 2017 conducted by the China Climate Change Communication program, 94% of interviewees supported fulfilling the Paris agreement, 96.8% of interviewees supported international cooperation on global climate change, and more than 70% of interviewees were willing to purchase environmentally friendly products. 98.7% of interviewees supported implementing climate change education at schools. Respondents were most concerned about the air pollution caused by climate change.[52] The investigation included 4025 samples.[52]

The investigation showed that Chinese citizens agreed that they were experiencing climate change, and that it was caused by human activities.[53]

Furthermore, most Chinese citizens believe individual action on climate change can help, although the government is still seen as the entity most responsible for dealing with climate change. If the government does take action, fiscal and taxation policies are seen as potentially effective.[54]

Activism

Calculations in 2021 showed that, for giving the world a 50% chance of avoiding a temperature rise of 2 degrees or more China should increase its climate commitments by 7%.[55]: Table 1  For a 95% chance it should increase the commitments by 24%. For giving a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees China should increase its commitments by 41%.[55]

Activists such as Howey Ou have done school strikes for climate.

See also

References

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