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→‎Conservative nature of IPCC reports: not a general criticism of IPCC, obviously the research develops all the time.
→‎Endorsements and awards: added some new summary statements with refs
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== Challenges and controversies ==
== Challenges and controversies ==
The global IPCC consensus approach has been challenged internally<ref name="ess">[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0176-8/fulltext.html#Sec7 Evaluation, characterization, and communication of uncertainty by the intergovernmental panel on climate change—an introductory essay. Climatic Change An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change, Gary Yohe and Michael Oppenheimer] 2011</ref><ref name="MO">{{cite journal |first1=Michael |last1=Oppenheimer |author1-link=Michael Oppenheimer |first2=Brian C. |last2=O'Neill |first3=Mort |last3=Webster |first4=Shardul |last4= Agrawal|year=2007 |title=Climate Change, The Limits of Consensus |journal=[[Science (magazine)|Science]] |volume=317 |issue=5844 |pages=1505–1506 |doi=10.1126/science.1144831 |pmid=17872430 |s2cid=129837694}} reprinted in {{cite book|first1= Michael |last1= Oppenheimer |author1-link= Michael Oppenheimer |first2= Brian C. |last2= O'Neill |first3= Mort |last3= Webster |first4= Shardul |last4= Agrawal |chapter=The limits of consensus|title=Science Magazine's State of the Planet 2008-2009: with a Special Section on Energy and Sustainability |editor=Donald Kennedy and the Editors of ''Science''|year=2008|isbn=978-1597264051}}</ref> and externally, for example, during the 2009 [[Climatic Research Unit email controversy]] ("Climategate") and after the publication of the [[Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] in 2007.<ref>Hulme, M. (2013) Exploring climate change through science and in society: an anthology of Mike Hulme's essays, interviews and speechesRoutledge, Abingdon, UK, 330pp</ref>
The assessment reports and special reports by IPCC have attracted criticism both from those who say they exaggerate the risks and those who argue they understate them.<ref>{{Cite web |last=DailyClimate.org |first=Glenn Scherer |title=Climate Science Predictions Prove Too Conservative |url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-science-predictions-prove-too-conservative/ |access-date=2022-10-27 |website=Scientific American |language=en}}</ref> The global IPCC consensus approach has been challenged internally<ref name="ess">[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0176-8/fulltext.html#Sec7 Evaluation, characterization, and communication of uncertainty by the intergovernmental panel on climate change—an introductory essay. Climatic Change An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change, Gary Yohe and Michael Oppenheimer] 2011</ref><ref name="MO">{{cite journal |first1=Michael |last1=Oppenheimer |author1-link=Michael Oppenheimer |first2=Brian C. |last2=O'Neill |first3=Mort |last3=Webster |first4=Shardul |last4= Agrawal|year=2007 |title=Climate Change, The Limits of Consensus |journal=[[Science (magazine)|Science]] |volume=317 |issue=5844 |pages=1505–1506 |doi=10.1126/science.1144831 |pmid=17872430 |s2cid=129837694}} reprinted in {{cite book|first1= Michael |last1= Oppenheimer |author1-link= Michael Oppenheimer |first2= Brian C. |last2= O'Neill |first3= Mort |last3= Webster |first4= Shardul |last4= Agrawal |chapter=The limits of consensus|title=Science Magazine's State of the Planet 2008-2009: with a Special Section on Energy and Sustainability |editor=Donald Kennedy and the Editors of ''Science''|year=2008|isbn=978-1597264051}}</ref> and externally, for example, during the 2009 [[Climatic Research Unit email controversy]] ("Climategate") and after the publication of the [[Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] in 2007.<ref>Hulme, M. (2013) Exploring climate change through science and in society: an anthology of Mike Hulme's essays, interviews and speechesRoutledge, Abingdon, UK, 330pp</ref>


===Conservative nature of IPCC reports===
===Conservative nature of IPCC reports===
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== Endorsements and awards ==
== Endorsements and awards ==
There is [[#Endorsements|widespread support]] for the IPCC in the [[scientific community]], which is reflected in publications by other scientific bodies and experts.<ref>* {{cite web |title=Scientists Send Letter to Congress and Federal Agencies Supporting IPCC |url=http://www.agu.org/sci_pol/events/2010-03-12_ScientistsLetter_Congress.shtml |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111024142639/http://www.agu.org/sci_pol/events/2010-03-12_ScientistsLetter_Congress.shtml |archive-date=21 October 2011 |access-date=28 March 2011 |publisher=American Geophysical Union}}
IPCC reports are the benchmark for [[Climate Science|climate science]].<ref>{{Citation |last=Paglia |first=Eric |title=The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Guardian of Climate Science |date=2021 |url=http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-030-51701-4_12 |work=Guardians of Public Value |pages=295–321 |editor-last=Boin |editor-first=Arjen |place=Cham |publisher=Springer International Publishing |language=en |doi=10.1007/978-3-030-51701-4_12 |isbn=978-3-030-51700-7 |access-date=2022-10-27 |last2=Parker |first2=Charles |editor2-last=Fahy |editor2-first=Lauren A. |editor3-last='t Hart |editor3-first=Paul}}</ref> There is [[#Endorsements|widespread support]] for the IPCC in the [[scientific community]], which is reflected in publications by other scientific bodies and experts.<ref>* {{cite web |title=Scientists Send Letter to Congress and Federal Agencies Supporting IPCC |url=http://www.agu.org/sci_pol/events/2010-03-12_ScientistsLetter_Congress.shtml |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111024142639/http://www.agu.org/sci_pol/events/2010-03-12_ScientistsLetter_Congress.shtml |archive-date=21 October 2011 |access-date=28 March 2011 |publisher=American Geophysical Union}}
* {{cite web |author=Yohe, G.W. |display-authors=etal |title=An Open Letter from Scientists in the United States on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Errors Contained in the Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 |url=http://www.openletterfromscientists.com/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100315155535/http://www.openletterfromscientists.com/ |archive-date=15 March 2010}}. Note: According to Yohe ''et al.'' (2010), more than 250 scientists have signed the statement.
* {{cite web |author=Yohe, G.W. |display-authors=etal |title=An Open Letter from Scientists in the United States on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Errors Contained in the Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 |url=http://www.openletterfromscientists.com/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100315155535/http://www.openletterfromscientists.com/ |archive-date=15 March 2010}}. Note: According to Yohe ''et al.'' (2010), more than 250 scientists have signed the statement.
</ref><ref name="2001 science academies statement">{{citation |author=Joint statement by 16 national science academies |title=The Science of Climate Change |date=17 May 2001 |url=http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2001/10029.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150419074652/https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2001/10029.pdf |location=London |publisher=Royal Society |isbn=978-0854035588 |archive-date=19 April 2015}}</ref> Various scientific bodies have issued official statements endorsing and concurring with the findings of the IPCC, for example:
</ref><ref name="2001 science academies statement">{{citation |author=Joint statement by 16 national science academies |title=The Science of Climate Change |date=17 May 2001 |url=http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2001/10029.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150419074652/https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2001/10029.pdf |location=London |publisher=Royal Society |isbn=978-0854035588 |archive-date=19 April 2015}}</ref> Various scientific bodies have issued official statements endorsing and concurring with the findings of the IPCC, for example:

Revision as of 22:07, 27 October 2022

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
AbbreviationIPCC
Formation1988; 36 years ago (1988)
TypPanel
HauptsitzGeneva, Switzerland
Chair
Hoesung Lee
Parent organization
World Meteorological Organization
United Nations Environment Program
Websitewww.ipcc.ch Edit this at Wikidata

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations responsible for advancing knowledge on human-induced climate change.[1] It was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and later endorsed by United Nations General Assembly.[2] It is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, and is composed of 195 member states.[3] The IPCC is governed by its member states, which elect a bureau of scientists to serve for the duration of an assessment cycle (usually six to seven years); the bureau selects experts nominated by governments and observer organisations to prepare IPCC reports.[4] The IPCC is supported by a secretariat and various "Technical Support Units" from specialised working groups and task forces.[4]

The IPCC provides objective and comprehensive scientific information on anthropogenic climate change, including the natural, political, and economic impacts and risks, and possible response options. It does not conduct original research nor monitor climate change, but rather undertakes a periodic, systematic review of all relevant published literature.[5] Thousands of scientists and other experts volunteer to review the data and compile key findings into "Assessment Reports" for policymakers and the general public;[6] this has been described as the biggest peer review process in the scientific community.[7]

The IPCC is an internationally accepted authority on climate change, and its work is widely agreed upon by leading climate scientists as well as governments.[8][7] Its reports play a key role in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),[9] [10] with the Fifth Assessment Report heavily informing the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015.[11] The IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore for contributions to the human understanding of climate change.[12]

In 2015, the IPCC began its sixth assessment cycle, to be completed in 2022. In August 2021, the Physical Science working group of the IPCC published its contribution the Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6),[13] which The Guardian described as the "starkest warning yet" of "major inevitable and irreversible climate changes",[14] a theme echoed by many newspapers around the world.[15] On 28 February 2022, the IPCC released its Working Group II report on impacts and adaptation, the second of four parts (Working Groups I, II and III, along with the synthesis report) of its Sixth Assessment Report.[16] Working Group III's "Mitigation of climate change" sub-report to the Sixth Assessment was made available on 4 April 2022.[17]

During this period of the Sixth Assessment Report, the IPCC has released several special reports, including the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C in 2018, and the Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), and the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC), both in 2019. Consequently, the sixth assessment cycle has been described as the most ambitious in the IPCC's history.[18]

Origins and aims

The IPCC developed from an international scientific body, the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases[19] set up in 1986 by the International Council of Scientific Unions, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide recommendations based on current research. This small group of scientists lacked the resources to cover the increasingly complex interdisciplinary nature of climate science. The United States government sought an international convention for restrictions on greenhouse gases, and under the conservative Reagan Administration expressed concern about unrestrained influence from independent scientists or from United Nations bodies such as the UNEP and WMO. The U.S. government was the main force in shaping the IPCC as an autonomous intergovernmental body in which scientists took part both as experts and as official representatives of their governments, which would produce reports backed by all leading relevant scientists, and which then had to gain consensus agreement from every participating government. In this way, the IPCC was formed as a hybrid between a scientific body and an intergovernmental political organisation.[20]

The United Nations formally endorsed the creation of the IPCC in 1988, citing the fact that "[c]ertain human activities could change global climate patterns, threatening present and future generations with potentially severe economic and social consequences", and that "[c]ontinued growth in atmospheric concentrations of 'greenhouse' gases could produce global warming with an eventual rise in sea levels, the effects of which could be disastrous for mankind if timely steps are not taken at all levels".[21] To that end, the IPCC was tasked with reviewing peer-reviewed scientific literature and other relevant publications to provide information on the state of knowledge about climate change and its consequences and impacts.

Organization

The IPCC does not conduct original research, but produces comprehensive assessments, reports on special topics, and methodologies to help countries estimate their emissions and removals through sinks of greenhouse gases. Its assessments build on previous reports, highlighting the trajectory towards the latest knowledge; for example, the wording of the reports from the first to the sixth assessment reflects the growing evidence for a changing climate caused by human activity.

The IPCC has adopted and published "Principles Governing IPCC Work", which states that the IPCC will assess:[10]

Pursuant to its governing principles, the IPCC conducts its assessments on a "comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis" that encompasses all "scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis" of climate change. IPCC reports must be neutral with respect to policy recommendations, but may address the objective scientific, technical and socioeconomic factors relevant to enacting certain policies.[10]

The IPCC is currently chaired by Korean economist Hoesung Lee, who has served since 8 October 2015 with the election of the new IPCC Bureau,[22] along with three vice-chairs, Youba Sokona (Mali), Ko Barrett (USA) and Thelma Krug (Brazil).[23] Before this election, the IPCC was led by Vice-chair Ismail El Gizouli, who was designated acting chair after the resignation of Rajendra K. Pachauri in February 2015.[24] The previous chairs were Rajendra K. Pachauri, elected in May 2002; Robert Watson in 1997; and Bert Bolin in 1988.[25] The chair is assisted by an elected bureau including vice-chairs and working group co-chairs, and by a secretariat.

The Panel itself is composed of representatives appointed by governments. Participation of delegates with appropriate expertise is encouraged. Plenary sessions of the IPCC and IPCC Working Groups are held at the level of government representatives. Non-Governmental and Intergovernmental Organizations admitted as observer organizations may also attend.[26] Sessions of the Panel, IPCC Bureau, workshops, expert and lead authors meetings are by invitation only.[10] About 500 people from 130 countries attended the 48th Session of the Panel in Incheon, Republic of Korea, in October 2018, including 290 government officials and 60 representatives of observer organizations. The opening ceremonies of sessions of the Panel and of Lead Author Meetings are open to media, but otherwise IPCC meetings are closed.

The IPCC is structured as follows:

  • IPCC Panel: Meets in plenary session about once a year.[4] It controls the organization's structure, procedures, and work programme, and accepts and approves IPCC reports. The Panel is the IPCC corporate entity.[6]
  • Chair: Elected by the Panel.
  • Secretariat: Oversees and manages all activities. Supported by UNEP and WMO.
  • Bureau: Elected by the Panel. Chaired by the chair. Its 34 members include IPCC Vice-Chairs, Co-Chairs of Working Groups and the Task Force, and Vice-Chairs of the Working Groups.[27] It provides guidance to the Panel on the scientific and technical aspects of its work.[28]
  • Working Groups: Each has two Co-Chairs, one from the developed and one from developing world, and a technical support unit. Sessions of the Working Group approve the Summary for Policymakers of special reports and working group contributions to an assessment report. Each Working Group has a Bureau comprising its Co-Chairs and Vice-Chairs, who are also members of the IPCC Bureau.
    • Working Group I: Assesses scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. Co-Chairs: Valérie Masson-Delmotte and Panmao Zhai[27]
    • Working Group II: Assesses vulnerability of socioeconomic and natural systems to climate change, consequences, and adaptation options. Co-Chairs: Hans-Otto Pörtner and Debra Roberts[27]
    • Working Group III: Assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change. Co-Chairs: Priyadarshi R. Shukla and Jim Skea[27]
  • Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.[29] Co-Chairs: Kiyoto Tanabe and Eduardo Calvo Buendía
    • Task Force Bureau: Comprises the two Co-Chairs, who are also members of the IPCC Bureau, and 12 members.
  • Executive Committee: Comprises the chair, IPCC Vice-Chairs and the Co-Chairs of the Working Groups and Task Force. Its role includes addressing urgent issues that arise between sessions of the Panel.[30]

Finanzierung

The IPCC receives funding through a dedicated trust fund, established in 1989 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The trust fund receives annual cash contributions by the WMO, UNEP, and IPCC member governments; payments are voluntary and there is no set amount required. Administrative and operational costs, such as for the secretariat and headquarters, are provided by the WMO, which also sets the IPCC's financial regulations and rules.[31] The Panel is responsible for considering and adopting by consensus the annual budget.

List of all reports

Sr.No. Year Month Name of the Report Type of the Report
1 2023 March tbc AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2022 Synthesis Report
2 2022 April AR6 Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change Working Group Report
3 2022 February AR6 Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Working Group Report
4 2021 August AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Working Group Report
5 2020 June Methodology Report on Short-lived Climate Forcers Methodology Report
6 2019 September The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Special Report
7 2019 August Climate Change and Land Special Report
8 2019 May 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Methodology Report
9 2018 October Global Warming of 1.5 °C Special Report
10 2014 October AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report
11 2014 April AR5 Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change Working Group Report
12 2014 March AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Working Group Report
13 2013 September AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Working Group Report
14 2012 March Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Special Report
15 2011 April Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation Special Report
16 2007 September AR4 Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report Synthesis Report
17 2007 July AR4 Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Working Group Report
18 2007 June AR4 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Working Group Report
19 2007 June AR4 Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change Working Group Report
20 2006 April 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Methodology Report
21 2005 March Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System Special Report
22 2005 March Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Special Report
23 2001 October TAR Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report Synthesis Report
24 2001 July TAR Climate Change 2001: Mitigation Working Group Report
25 2001 May TAR Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Working Group Report
26 2001 January TAR Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Working Group Report
27 2000 March Methodological and Technological Issues in Technology Transfer Special Report
28 2000 March Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry Special Report
29 2000 March Emissions Scenarios Special Report
30 1999 March Aviation and the Global Atmosphere Special Report
31 1997 March The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability Special Report
32 1996 September Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Methodology Report
33 1996 October SAR Climate Change 1995: Synthesis Report Synthesis Report
34 1995 July SAR Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change Working Group Report
35 1995 July SAR Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses Working Group Report
36 1995 February SAR Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change Working Group Report
37 1994 November IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Methodology Report
38 1994 May 1994 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Methodology Report
39 1994 March Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios Special Report
40 1994 March IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Special Report
41 1992 June Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment Working Group Report
42 1992 April Climate Change: The IPCC 1990 and 1992 Assessments Working Group Report
43 1990 October FAR Climate Change: The IPCC Response Strategies Working Group Report
44 1990 July FAR Climate Change: Impacts Assessment of Climate Change Working Group Report
45 1990 June FAR Climate Change: Scientific Assessment of Climate Change Working Group Report
46 1990 March FAR Climate Change: Synthesis Synthesis Report

Assessment reports

The IPCC has published five comprehensive assessment reports reviewing the latest climate science, as well as a number of special reports on particular topics.[32] These reports are prepared by teams of relevant researchers selected by the Bureau from government nominations. Expert reviewers from a wide range of governments, IPCC observer organizations and other organizations are invited at different stages to comment on various aspects of the drafts.[33]

The IPCC published its First Assessment Report (FAR) in 1990, a supplementary report in 1992, a Second Assessment Report (SAR) in 1995, a Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001, a Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007[32] and a Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The IPCC is currently preparing its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which is being released in stages and will be completed in 2023.

Each assessment report is in three volumes, corresponding to Working Groups I, II, and III. It is completed by a synthesis report that integrates the working group contributions and any special reports produced in that assessment cycle.

Scope and preparation of the reports

The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data. Lead authors of IPCC reports assess the available information about climate change based on published sources.[5][34] According to IPCC guidelines, authors should give priority to peer-reviewed sources.[5] Authors may refer to non-peer-reviewed sources (the "grey literature"), provided that they are of sufficient quality.[5] Examples of non-peer-reviewed sources include model results, reports from government agencies and non-governmental organizations, and industry journals.[5] Each subsequent IPCC report notes areas where the science has improved since the previous report and also notes areas where further research is required.

There are generally three stages in the review process:[5]

  • Expert review (6–8 weeks)
  • Government/expert review
  • Government review of:
    • Summaries for Policymakers
    • Overview Chapters
    • Synthesis Report

Review comments are in an open archive for at least five years.

There are several types of endorsement which documents receive:

  • Approval. Material has been subjected to detailed, line by line discussion and agreement.
    • Working Group Summaries for Policymakers are approved by their Working Groups.
    • Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers is approved by Panel.
  • Adoption. Endorsed section by section (and not line by line).
    • Panel adopts Overview Chapters of Methodology Reports.
    • Panel adopts IPCC Synthesis Report.
  • Acceptance. Not been subject to line by line discussion and agreement, but presents a comprehensive, objective, and balanced view of the subject matter.
    • Working Groups accept their reports.
    • Task Force Reports are accepted by the Panel.
    • Working Group Summaries for Policymakers are accepted by the Panel after group approval.

The Panel is responsible for the IPCC and its endorsement of Reports allows it to ensure they meet IPCC standards.

There have been a range of commentaries on the IPCC's procedures, examples of which are discussed later in the article (see also IPCC Summary for Policymakers). Some of these comments have been supportive,[35] while others have been critical.[36] Some commentators have suggested changes to the IPCC's procedures.[37]

Authors

Each chapter has a number of authors who are responsible for writing and editing the material. A chapter typically has two "coordinating lead authors", ten to fifteen "lead authors", and a somewhat larger number of "contributing authors". The coordinating lead authors are responsible for assembling the contributions of the other authors, ensuring that they meet stylistic and formatting requirements, and reporting to the Working Group chairs. Lead authors are responsible for writing sections of chapters. Contributing authors prepare text, graphs or data for inclusion by the lead authors.[38]

Authors for the IPCC reports are chosen from a list of researchers prepared by governments and participating organisations, and by the Working Group/Task Force Bureaux, as well as other experts known through their published work. The choice of authors aims for a range of views, expertise and geographical representation, ensuring representation of experts from developing and developed countries and countries with economies in transition.

Scientists who participate in the IPCC assessment process do so without any compensation other than the normal salaries they receive from their home institutions. The process is labor-intensive, diverting time and resources from participating scientists' research programs.[39] Concerns have been raised that the large uncompensated time commitment and disruption to their own research may discourage qualified scientists from participating.[40]

First assessment report (1990)

The First Assessment Report (FAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was completed in 1990. It served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This report had effects not only on the establishment of the UNFCCC, but also on the first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP), held in Berlin in 1995.[41] The executive summary of the WG I Summary for Policymakers report that said they were certain that emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface. They calculated with confidence that CO2 had been responsible for over half the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Second assessment report (1995)

The Second Assessment Report (SAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 1995, is an assessment of the then available scientific and socio-economic information on climate change. The report was split into four parts: a synthesis to help interpret UNFCCC article 2, The Science of Climate Change (Working Group I), Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change (WG II), Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (WG III). Each of the last three parts was completed by a separate Working Group (WG), and each has a Summary for Policymakers (SPM) that represents a consensus of national representatives.

Third assessment report (2001)

The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), Climate Change 2001, is an assessment of available scientific and socio-economic information on climate change by the IPCC. Statements of the IPCC or information from the TAR were often used as a reference showing a scientific consensus on the subject of global warming. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) was completed in 2001 and consists of four reports, three of them from its Working Groups: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis;[42] Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability;[43] Working Group III: Mitigation;[44] Synthesis Report.[45] A number of the TAR's conclusions are given quantitative estimates of how probable it is that they are correct, e.g., greater than 66% probability of being correct.[46] These are "Bayesian" probabilities, which are based on an expert assessment of all the available evidence.[47][48]

Fourth assessment report (2007)

Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was published in 2007 and is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects, and options for adaptation and mitigation.[49] The report is the largest and most detailed summary of the climate change situation ever undertaken, produced by thousands of authors, editors, and reviewers from dozens of countries, citing over 6,000 peer-reviewed scientific studies. People from over 130 countries contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which took six years to produce.[49] Contributors to AR4 included more than 2,500 scientific expert reviewers, more than 800 contributing authors, and more than 450 lead authors.[49]

Fifth assessment report (2014)

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the fifth in a series of such reports and was completed in 2014.[50] As had been the case in the past, the outline of the AR5 was developed through a scoping process which involved climate change experts from all relevant disciplines and users of IPCC reports, in particular representatives from governments. Governments and organizations involved in the Fourth Report were asked to submit comments and observations in writing with the submissions analysed by the panel.[51][52] Projections in AR5 are based on "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs).[53] The RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Projected changes in global mean surface temperature and sea level are given in the main RCP article.

Sixth assessment report (2021/2022)

The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess the available scientific information on climate change. Three Working Groups (WGI, II, and III) covered the following topics: The Physical Science Basis (WGI); Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (WGII); Mitigation of Climate Change (WGIII). Of these, the first study was published in 2021, the second report February 2022, and the third in April 2022. The final synthesis report was finished in March 2023.

Other reports

Special reports

In addition to climate assessment reports, the IPCC publishes Special Reports on specific topics. The preparation and approval process for all IPCC Special Reports follows the same procedures as for IPCC Assessment Reports. In the year 2011 two IPCC Special Report were finalized, the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) and the Special Report on Managing Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). Both Special Reports were requested by governments.[54]

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) is a report by the IPCC which was published in 2000.[55] The SRES contains "scenarios" of future changes in emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide.[56] One of the uses of the SRES scenarios is to project future changes in climate, e.g., changes in global mean temperature. The SRES scenarios were used in the IPCC's Third[57] and Fourth Assessment Reports.[58]

The SRES scenarios are "baseline" (or "reference") scenarios, which means that they do not take into account any current or future measures to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).[59] SRES emissions projections are broadly comparable in range to the baseline projections that have been developed by the scientific community.[60]

Special report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)

This report assesses existing literature on renewable energy commercialisation for the mitigation of climate change.[61] It was approved in 2011 and covers the six most important renewable energy technologies in a transition, as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It also takes into consideration the environmental and social consequences associated with these technologies, the cost and strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. More than 130 authors from all over the world contributed to the preparation of report on a voluntary basis – not to mention more than 100 scientists, who served as contributing authors.

Special Report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation (SREX)

The report was approved in 2011.[62] It assesses the effect that climate change has on the threat of natural disasters and how nations can better manage an expected change in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of severe weather patterns. It aims to become a resource for decision-makers to prepare more effectively for managing the risks of these events. A potentially important area for consideration is also the detection of trends in extreme events and the attribution of these trends to human influence. More than 80 authors, 19 review editors, and more than 100 contributing authors from all over the world contributed to this report.

Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15)

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15) was published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 8 October 2018.[63] The report, approved in Incheon, South Korea, includes over 6,000 scientific references, and was prepared by 91 authors from 40 countries.[63] In December 2015, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference called for the report.[63] The report was delivered at the United Nations' 48th session of the IPCC to "deliver the authoritative, scientific guide for governments" to deal with climate change.[63] Its key finding is that meeting a 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) target is possible but would require "deep emissions reductions"[63] and "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society".[63] Furthermore, the report finds that "limiting global warming to 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being" and that a 2 °C temperature increase would exacerbate extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, coral bleaching, and loss of ecosystems, among other impacts.[63]

Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL)

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), also known as the "Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems",[64][65] is a landmark study from 2019 by 107 experts from 52 countries.[66][67] The SRCCL provides a comprehensive overview of the entire land-climate system for the first time and decided to enlist land as a "critical resource".[68] The IPCC's 50th session (IPCC-50) formally adopted the SRCCL's Summary for policymakers (SPM) and approved the underlying report.[68][69] The SPM and the full text of Special Report on Climate Change and Land—in an unedited form—were released on 8 August 2019. The report is over 1,300 pages long and includes the work of 107 experts from 52 countries.

Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) is a report about the effects of climate change on the world's seas, sea ice, icecaps and glaciers. It was approved at the IPCC's 51st Session (IPCC-51) in September 2019 in Monaco.[70] The SROCC's approved Summary for Policymakers (SPM) was released on 25 September 2019.[71] The 1,300-page report by 104 authors and editors representing 36 countries referred to 6,981 publications.[70] The report is the third in the series of three Special Reports in the current Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) cycle, which began in 2015 and will be completed in 2022.[72][73] The first was the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C,[74] while the second was the Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), also known as the "Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems", which was released on 7 August 2019.

Methodology Reports

Within the IPCC the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme develops methodologies to estimate emissions and removals of greenhouse gases.[75] Originally undertaken by IPCC Working Group I in collaboration with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Energy Agency, the programme has been managed since 1998 by the IPCC's Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI) [76] whose Technical Support Unit is hosted by Japan's Institute for Global Environment Strategies . The objectives of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme are:

  • to develop and refine an internationally agreed methodology and software for the calculation and reporting of national greenhouse gas emissions and removals; and
  • to encourage the widespread use of this methodology by countries participating in the IPCC and by signatories of the UNFCCC.

Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

The 1996 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories provide the methodological basis for the estimation of national greenhouse gas emissions inventories.[77] Over time these guidelines have been completed with good practice reports: Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry.

The 1996 guidelines and the two good practice reports are to be used by parties to the UNFCCC and to the Kyoto Protocol in their annual submissions of national greenhouse gas inventories.

2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is the latest version of these emission estimation methodologies, including a large number of default emission factors.[clarification needed][78] Although the IPCC prepared this new version of the guidelines on request of the parties to the UNFCCC, the methods have not yet been officially accepted for use in national greenhouse gas emissions reporting under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol.[79] Further material was provided in the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.[80]

Other activities

The IPCC concentrates its activities on the tasks allotted to it by the relevant WMO Executive Council and UNEP Governing Council resolutions and decisions as well as on actions in support of the UNFCCC process.[10] While the preparation of the assessment reports is a major IPCC function, it also supports other activities, such as the Data Distribution Centre,[81] which helps manage data related to IPCC reports.

The IPCC has a Gender Policy and Implementation Plan[82] dedicated to mainstreaming gender in its work in an inclusive and respectful manner, where there is balance in participation, and all have equal opportunity.

Communications and dissemination activities

Already in the Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC had enhanced its communications activities, for instance by making the approved report and press release available to registered media under embargo before the release,[83] and expanding its outreach activities with an outreach calendar.[84] At the start of the Sixth Assessment Report cycle, the IPCC held an Expert Meeting on Communication in February 2016, bringing together members of the old and new Bureau and Technical Support Units with communications experts and practitioners. This meeting produced a series of recommendations.[85] Many of these were taken up subsequently by the IPCC, such as bringing people with communications expertise into the Working Group Technical Support Units, and considering communications questions early on in the preparation of reports.

This increasing professionalism in IPCC communications was followed by a significant increase in the media coverage of some IPCC reports such as the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC in 2018 and "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis" (the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report) in 2021, as well as public interest reflected in the youth and other movements that emerged in 2018.[86]

The importance of IPCC reports for public awareness of climate change and related policymaking has led to number of academic studies of IPCC communications. The journal "Climatic Change" published a "Topical Collection" on IPCC communications with contributions from communications scientists and IPCC insiders, launched at the annual climate conference COP26 in Glasgow.[87][88]

Archiving

Papers and electronic files of certain working groups of the IPCC, including reviews and comments on drafts of their Assessment Reports, are archived at the Environmental Science and Public Policy Archives in the Harvard Library, as well as on the IPCC website.[89]

Challenges and controversies

The assessment reports and special reports by IPCC have attracted criticism both from those who say they exaggerate the risks and those who argue they understate them.[90] The global IPCC consensus approach has been challenged internally[91][92] and externally, for example, during the 2009 Climatic Research Unit email controversy ("Climategate") and after the publication of the Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.[93]

Conservative nature of IPCC reports

Some critics have contended that the IPCC reports tend to be conservative by consistently underestimating the pace and impacts of global warming,[94] and report only the "lowest common denominator" findings.[95]

In reporting criticism by some scientists that IPCC's then-impending January 2007 report understates certain risks, particularly sea level rises, an AP story quoted Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of physics and oceanography at Potsdam University as saying "In a way, it is one of the strengths of the IPCC to be very conservative and cautious and not overstate any climate change risk".[96]

A potential political influence on the IPCC has been documented by the release of a memo by ExxonMobil to the Bush administration in the United States in 2002, and its effects on the IPCC's leadership. The memo led to strong Bush administration lobbying, evidently at the behest of ExxonMobil, to oust Robert Watson, a climate scientist, from the IPCC chairmanship, and to have him replaced by Rajendra Pachauri, who was seen at the time as more mild-mannered and industry-friendly.[97]

Procedures

Michael Oppenheimer, a long-time participant in the IPCC and coordinating lead author of the Fifth Assessment Report conceded in Science Magazine's State of the Planet 2008–2009 some limitations of the IPCC consensus approach and asks for concurring, smaller assessments of special problems instead of the large scale approach as in the previous IPCC assessment reports.[92] It has become more important to provide a broader exploration of uncertainties.[92] Others see as well mixed blessings of the drive for consensus within the IPCC process and ask to include dissenting or minority positions[98] or to improve statements about uncertainties.[99][100]

Outdatedness of reports

Since the IPCC does not carry out its own research, it operates on the basis of scientific papers and independently documented results from other scientific bodies, and its schedule for producing reports requires a deadline for submissions prior to the report's final release. In principle, this means that any significant new evidence or events that change our understanding of climate science between this deadline and publication of an IPCC report cannot be included. In an area of science where our scientific understanding is rapidly changing, this has been raised as a serious shortcoming in a body which is widely regarded as the ultimate authority on the science.[101] However, there has generally been a steady evolution of key findings and levels of scientific confidence from one assessment report to the next.[102]

The submission deadlines for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) differed for the reports of each Working Group. Deadlines for the Working Group I report were adjusted during the drafting and review process in order to ensure that reviewers had access to unpublished material being cited by the authors. The final deadline for cited publications was 24 July 2006.[103] The final WG I report was released on 30 April 2007 and the final AR4 Synthesis Report was released on 17 November 2007.Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC chair, admitted at the launch of this report that since the IPCC began work on it, scientists have recorded "much stronger trends in climate change", like the unforeseen dramatic melting of polar ice in the summer of 2007,[104] and added, "that means you better start with intervention much earlier".[105]

InterAcademy Council review in 2010

In March 2010, at the invitation of the United Nations secretary-general and the chair of the IPCC, the InterAcademy Council (IAC) was asked to review the IPCC's processes for developing its reports.[106] The IAC panel, chaired by Harold Tafler Shapiro, released its report on 1 September 2010.[107] The panel made seven formal recommendations for improving the IPCC's assessment process, for example that the IPCC appoint a full-time executive director. This person would "manage daily operations and communications while reporting to an independent board of directors"[107]. Another recommendation was to strengthen the IPCC's science-review process.[107]

Endorsements and awards

IPCC reports are the benchmark for climate science.[108] There is widespread support for the IPCC in the scientific community, which is reflected in publications by other scientific bodies and experts.[109][110] Various scientific bodies have issued official statements endorsing and concurring with the findings of the IPCC, for example:

Nobel Peace Prize in 2007

In December 2007, the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change". The award is shared with former U.S. Vice-president Al Gore for his work on climate change and the documentary An Inconvenient Truth.[117]

Gulbenkian Prize for Humanity in 2022

In October 2022, the IPCC and the IPBES shared the Gulbenkian Prize for Humanity, because the two intergovernmental organisations "produce scientific knowledge, alert society, and inform decision-makers to make better choices for combatting climate change and the loss of biodiversity". [118]

See also

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