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== Definition ==
== Definition ==
As of 2018 the terms "climate engineering" and "geoengineering" are not used by the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Glossary|2018|p=549}}</ref> According to climate economist Gernot Wagner the term "geoengineering" is "largely an artefact and a result of the terms frequent use in popular discourse" and "so vague and all-encompassing as to have lost much meaning".<ref name=":04" />{{Rp|page=14}}
As of 2018 the terms "climate engineering" and "geoengineering" are not used by the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC).<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Glossary|2018|p=549}}</ref> Climate engineering (or geoengineering) is used in the literature as a term for both CDR ([[carbon dioxide removal]]) or SRM (Solar radiation management or [[solar geoengineering]]) when applied at a planetary scale.<ref name="AR6 WGIII Ch 1" />{{rp|6-11}} However, they have very different geophysical characteristic which is why the IPCC no longer uses this term.<ref name="AR6 WGIII Ch 1" />{{rp|6-11}}<ref name="IPCC AR6 WGI Glossary" />


==Solar geoengineering==
==Solar geoengineering==
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==Issues==
==Issues==
According to climate economist Gernot Wagner the term "geoengineering" is "largely an artefact and a result of the terms frequent use in popular discourse" and "so vague and all-encompassing as to have lost much meaning".<ref name=":04" />{{Rp|page=14}}

=== Moral hazard ===
=== Moral hazard ===
CE may reduce the urgency of reducing carbon emissions,<ref name="Extreme action guardian2">{{cite news |last=Adam |first=David |date=1 September 2008 |title=Extreme and risky action the only way to tackle global warming, say scientists |work=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/sep/01/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange2 |url-status=live |access-date=2009-05-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190806230902/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/sep/01/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange2 |archive-date=2019-08-06}}</ref> a form of [[moral hazard]]. This concern causes many environmental groups and campaigners to oppose any research for fear of reducing the urgency of cutting [[greenhouse gas emissions]].<ref name="Moral hazard2">{{cite web |date=14 November 2007 |title=Geo-Engineering{{Snd}} a Moral Hazard |url=http://www.celsias.com/article/geo-engineering-a-moral-hazard/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110114085045/http://www.celsias.com/article/geo-engineering-a-moral-hazard/ |archive-date=14 January 2011 |access-date=9 September 2010 |publisher=celsias.com |df=dmy-all}}</ref> However, several public opinion surveys and focus groups reported either desire to increase emission cuts in the presence of climate engineering, or of no effect.<ref name="Royal Society Policy Document2" /><ref>{{cite report |url=https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/publication/1970-01/sri_experiment-earth-report-on-a--public-dialogue-on-geoengineering_sept2010.pdf |title=Experiment Earth? Report on a Public Dialogue on Geoengineering |author=[[Ipsos MORI]] |date=August 2010 |access-date=2019-02-14 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190215050427/https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/publication/1970-01/sri_experiment-earth-report-on-a--public-dialogue-on-geoengineering_sept2010.pdf |archive-date=2019-02-15 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Mercer |first1=A M |last2=Keith |first2=D W |last3=Sharp |first3=J D |date=2011-12-01 |title=Public understanding of solar radiation management{{Snd}} IOPscience |url=https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/12763597/53098873.pdf?sequence=1 |url-status=live |journal=Environmental Research Letters |volume=6 |issue=4 |pages=044006 |bibcode=2011ERL.....6d4006M |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044006 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190331144301/https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/12763597/53098873.pdf?sequence=1 |archive-date=2019-03-31 |access-date=2019-09-04 |doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Kahan |first1=Dan M. |last2=Jenkins-Smith |first2=Hank |last3=Tarantola |first3=Tor |last4=Silva |first4=Carol L. |last5=Braman |first5=Donald |date=2015-03-01 |title=Geoengineering and Climate Change Polarization Testing a Two-Channel Model of Science Communication |journal=The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science |volume=658 |issue=1 |pages=192–222 |doi=10.1177/0002716214559002 |issn=0002-7162 |s2cid=149147565}}</ref><ref>{{Cite report |url=http://iagp.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Views%20about%20geoengineering%20IAGP.pdf |title=Views about geoengineering: Key findings from public discussion groups |date=2014-07-31 |publisher=Integrated Assessment of Geoengineering Proposals |access-date=2018-08-20 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161223100051/http://iagp.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Views%20about%20geoengineering%20IAGP.pdf |archive-date=2016-12-23 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Wibeck |first1=Victoria |last2=Hansson |first2=Anders |last3=Anshelm |first3=Jonas |date=2015-05-01 |title=Questioning the technological fix to climate change{{Snd}} Lay sense-making of geoengineering in Sweden |url=http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-119732 |journal=Energy Research & Social Science |volume=7 |pages=23–30 |doi=10.1016/j.erss.2015.03.001}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Merk |first1=Christine |last2=Pönitzsch |first2=Gert |last3=Kniebes |first3=Carola |last4=Rehdanz |first4=Katrin |last5=Schmidt |first5=Ulrich |date=2015-02-10 |title=Exploring public perceptions of stratospheric sulfate injection |journal=Climatic Change |volume=130 |issue=2 |pages=299–312 |bibcode=2015ClCh..130..299M |doi=10.1007/s10584-014-1317-7 |issn=0165-0009 |s2cid=154196324}}</ref> Other modelling work suggests that the prospect of climate engineering may in fact increase the likelihood of emissions reduction.<ref name="doi10.1007/s10584-011-0102-02">{{Cite journal |last1=Millard-Ball |first1=A. |year=2011 |title=The Tuvalu Syndrome |journal=Climatic Change |volume=110 |issue=3–4 |pages=1047–1066 |doi=10.1007/s10584-011-0102-0 |s2cid=153990911}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Urpelainen |first=Johannes |date=2012-02-10 |title=Geoengineering and global warming: a strategic perspective |journal=International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics |volume=12 |issue=4 |pages=375–389 |doi=10.1007/s10784-012-9167-0 |issn=1567-9764 |s2cid=154422202}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Goeschl |first1=Timo |last2=Heyen |first2=Daniel |last3=Moreno-Cruz |first3=Juan |date=2013-03-20 |title=The Intergenerational Transfer of Solar Radiation Management Capabilities and Atmospheric Carbon Stocks |url=http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/14373/1/goeschl_heyen_moreno_cruz__2013_dp540.pdf |url-status=live |journal=Environmental and Resource Economics |volume=56 |issue=1 |pages=85–104 |doi=10.1007/s10640-013-9647-x |issn=0924-6460 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201204163528/http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/14373/1/goeschl_heyen_moreno_cruz__2013_dp540.pdf |archive-date=2020-12-04 |access-date=2019-08-16 |hdl=10419/127358 |s2cid=52213135}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Moreno-Cruz |first=Juan B. |date=2015-08-01 |title=Mitigation and the geoengineering threat |journal=Resource and Energy Economics |volume=41 |pages=248–263 |doi=10.1016/j.reseneeco.2015.06.001|hdl=1853/44254 }}</ref>
CE may reduce the urgency of reducing carbon emissions,<ref name="Extreme action guardian2">{{cite news |last=Adam |first=David |date=1 September 2008 |title=Extreme and risky action the only way to tackle global warming, say scientists |work=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/sep/01/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange2 |url-status=live |access-date=2009-05-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190806230902/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/sep/01/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange2 |archive-date=2019-08-06}}</ref> a form of [[moral hazard]]. This concern causes many environmental groups and campaigners to oppose any research for fear of reducing the urgency of cutting [[greenhouse gas emissions]].<ref name="Moral hazard2">{{cite web |date=14 November 2007 |title=Geo-Engineering{{Snd}} a Moral Hazard |url=http://www.celsias.com/article/geo-engineering-a-moral-hazard/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110114085045/http://www.celsias.com/article/geo-engineering-a-moral-hazard/ |archive-date=14 January 2011 |access-date=9 September 2010 |publisher=celsias.com |df=dmy-all}}</ref> However, several public opinion surveys and focus groups reported either desire to increase emission cuts in the presence of climate engineering, or of no effect.<ref name="Royal Society Policy Document2" /><ref>{{cite report |url=https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/publication/1970-01/sri_experiment-earth-report-on-a--public-dialogue-on-geoengineering_sept2010.pdf |title=Experiment Earth? Report on a Public Dialogue on Geoengineering |author=[[Ipsos MORI]] |date=August 2010 |access-date=2019-02-14 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190215050427/https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/publication/1970-01/sri_experiment-earth-report-on-a--public-dialogue-on-geoengineering_sept2010.pdf |archive-date=2019-02-15 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Mercer |first1=A M |last2=Keith |first2=D W |last3=Sharp |first3=J D |date=2011-12-01 |title=Public understanding of solar radiation management{{Snd}} IOPscience |url=https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/12763597/53098873.pdf?sequence=1 |url-status=live |journal=Environmental Research Letters |volume=6 |issue=4 |pages=044006 |bibcode=2011ERL.....6d4006M |doi=10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044006 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190331144301/https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/12763597/53098873.pdf?sequence=1 |archive-date=2019-03-31 |access-date=2019-09-04 |doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Kahan |first1=Dan M. |last2=Jenkins-Smith |first2=Hank |last3=Tarantola |first3=Tor |last4=Silva |first4=Carol L. |last5=Braman |first5=Donald |date=2015-03-01 |title=Geoengineering and Climate Change Polarization Testing a Two-Channel Model of Science Communication |journal=The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science |volume=658 |issue=1 |pages=192–222 |doi=10.1177/0002716214559002 |issn=0002-7162 |s2cid=149147565}}</ref><ref>{{Cite report |url=http://iagp.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Views%20about%20geoengineering%20IAGP.pdf |title=Views about geoengineering: Key findings from public discussion groups |date=2014-07-31 |publisher=Integrated Assessment of Geoengineering Proposals |access-date=2018-08-20 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161223100051/http://iagp.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Views%20about%20geoengineering%20IAGP.pdf |archive-date=2016-12-23 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Wibeck |first1=Victoria |last2=Hansson |first2=Anders |last3=Anshelm |first3=Jonas |date=2015-05-01 |title=Questioning the technological fix to climate change{{Snd}} Lay sense-making of geoengineering in Sweden |url=http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-119732 |journal=Energy Research & Social Science |volume=7 |pages=23–30 |doi=10.1016/j.erss.2015.03.001}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Merk |first1=Christine |last2=Pönitzsch |first2=Gert |last3=Kniebes |first3=Carola |last4=Rehdanz |first4=Katrin |last5=Schmidt |first5=Ulrich |date=2015-02-10 |title=Exploring public perceptions of stratospheric sulfate injection |journal=Climatic Change |volume=130 |issue=2 |pages=299–312 |bibcode=2015ClCh..130..299M |doi=10.1007/s10584-014-1317-7 |issn=0165-0009 |s2cid=154196324}}</ref> Other modelling work suggests that the prospect of climate engineering may in fact increase the likelihood of emissions reduction.<ref name="doi10.1007/s10584-011-0102-02">{{Cite journal |last1=Millard-Ball |first1=A. |year=2011 |title=The Tuvalu Syndrome |journal=Climatic Change |volume=110 |issue=3–4 |pages=1047–1066 |doi=10.1007/s10584-011-0102-0 |s2cid=153990911}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Urpelainen |first=Johannes |date=2012-02-10 |title=Geoengineering and global warming: a strategic perspective |journal=International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics |volume=12 |issue=4 |pages=375–389 |doi=10.1007/s10784-012-9167-0 |issn=1567-9764 |s2cid=154422202}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Goeschl |first1=Timo |last2=Heyen |first2=Daniel |last3=Moreno-Cruz |first3=Juan |date=2013-03-20 |title=The Intergenerational Transfer of Solar Radiation Management Capabilities and Atmospheric Carbon Stocks |url=http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/14373/1/goeschl_heyen_moreno_cruz__2013_dp540.pdf |url-status=live |journal=Environmental and Resource Economics |volume=56 |issue=1 |pages=85–104 |doi=10.1007/s10640-013-9647-x |issn=0924-6460 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201204163528/http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/14373/1/goeschl_heyen_moreno_cruz__2013_dp540.pdf |archive-date=2020-12-04 |access-date=2019-08-16 |hdl=10419/127358 |s2cid=52213135}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Moreno-Cruz |first=Juan B. |date=2015-08-01 |title=Mitigation and the geoengineering threat |journal=Resource and Energy Economics |volume=41 |pages=248–263 |doi=10.1016/j.reseneeco.2015.06.001|hdl=1853/44254 }}</ref>

Revision as of 15:31, 15 November 2022

Climate engineering, (geoengineering) is used in the literature as a term for both CDR (carbon dioxide removal) or SRM (Solar radiation management or solar geoengineering) when applied at a planetary scale.[1]: 6–11  However, they have very different geophysical characteristic which is why the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) no longer uses this term.[1]: 6–11 [2] Solar geoengineering involves reflecting some sunlight (solar radiation) back to space.[3] An alternative approach to geoengineering is to increase the Earth's thermal emittance through passive radiative cooling.[4][5][6] Carbon dioxide removal approaches are part of climate change mitigation. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is defined as "Anthropogenic activities removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and durably storing it in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products. It includes existing and potential anthropogenic enhancement of biological or geochemical CO2 sinks and direct air carbon dioxide capture and storage (DACCS), but excludes natural CO2 uptake not directly caused by human activities."[2]

Climate engineering is highly controversial,[7] limiting the amount of research into its potential. Large uncertainties afflict the understanding of its effectiveness, side effects and unforeseen consequences. The risks of such interventions must be seen in the context of the trajectory of climate change without them.[8][9] Interventions at large scale run a greater risk of unintended disruptions of natural systems, resulting in a dilemma that they such disruptions might be more damaging than the climate damage that they offset.[8] Opponents offer several objections:[10] Climate engineering could reduce pressure for emissions reductions, which could exacerbate overall climate risks. Also, most efforts have only temporary effects, requiring ever-increasing interventions which imply rapid rebound if they are not sustained. Others assert that the threat of climate engineering could spur emissions cuts.[10][11][12]

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR), the practice of deliberately reducing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, is often classified as a form of climate engineering,[13] although it directly reduces humanity's disturbance of climate instead of merely offsetting its impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) no longer refers to CDR as a subgroup of climate engineering.[14]

Definition

As of 2018 the terms "climate engineering" and "geoengineering" are not used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).[15] Climate engineering (or geoengineering) is used in the literature as a term for both CDR (carbon dioxide removal) or SRM (Solar radiation management or solar geoengineering) when applied at a planetary scale.[1]: 6–11  However, they have very different geophysical characteristic which is why the IPCC no longer uses this term.[1]: 6–11 [2]

Solar geoengineering

Solar radiation modification (SRM), also known as solar radiation management, or solar geoengineering, refers to a range of approaches to limit global warming by increasing the amount of sunlight (solar radiation) that the atmosphere reflects back to space or by reducing the trapping of outgoing thermal radiation. Among the multiple potential approaches, stratospheric aerosol injection is the most-studied, followed by marine cloud brightening. SRM could be a temporary measure to limit climate-change impacts while greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and carbon dioxide is removed,[16] but would not be a substitute for reducing emissions. SRM is a form of climate engineering.

Multiple authoritative international scientific assessments, based on evidence from climate models and natural analogues, have generally shown that some forms of SRM could reduce global warming and many adverse effects of climate change.[17][18][19] Specifically, controlled stratospheric aerosol injection appears able to greatly moderate most environmental impacts—especially warming—and consequently most ecological, economic, and other impacts of climate change across most regions. However, because warming from greenhouse gases and cooling from SRM would operate differently across latitudes and seasons, a world where global warming would be offset by SRM would have a different climate from one where this warming did not occur in the first place. Furthermore, confidence in the current projections of how SRM would affect regional climate and ecosystems is low.[16]

SRM would pose environmental risks. In addition to its imperfect reduction of climate-change impacts, stratospheric aerosol injection could, for example, slow the recovery of stratospheric ozone. If a significant SRM intervention were to suddenly stop and not be resumed, the cooling would end relatively rapidly, posing serious environmental risks. Some environmental risks remain unknown.
refer to caption and image description
Proposed solar geoengineering using a tethered balloon to inject sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere.

Radiative cooling

Passive daytime radiative cooling (PDRC) is another way to reduce the temperature effects of carbon emission.[4][5] It involves the use of sky-facing thermally-emissive surfaces (e.g., ultra-white paint) to radiate heat back into space.[6][20] A variation is to use materials that convert visible light into infrared which can pass back through Earth's infrared window.[21] It is claimed to be "less intrusive" and more predictable than other SG methods. It does not reduce carbon emissions, and so inherits the other SG criticisms.[4]

Jeremy Munday writes that although "unexpected effects will likely occur" with global PDRC implementation, that "these structures can be removed immediately if needed, unlike methods that involve dispersing particulate matter into the atmosphere, which can last for decades."[22] Wang et al. state that stratospheric aerosol injection "might cause potentially dangerous threats to the Earth’s basic climate operations" that may not be reversible, preferring PDRC.[21] Zevenhoven et al. state that "instead of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), cloud brightening or a large number of mirrors in the sky (“sunshade geoengineering”) to block out or reflect incoming (short-wave, SW) solar irradiation, long-wavelength (LW) thermal radiation can be selectively emitted and transferred through the atmosphere into space".[4]

Enhancing the thermal emissivity of Earth through PDRC has been proposed as an alternative or "third approach" to geoengineering[23][24] that is "less intrusive" and more predictable or reversible than stratospheric aerosol injection.[25] Like other forms of geoengineering, PDRC is not proposed as a standalone solution to climate change, but to be coupled with a global reduction in CO2 emissions and transition off of fossil fuel energy.[26]

Issues

According to climate economist Gernot Wagner the term "geoengineering" is "largely an artefact and a result of the terms frequent use in popular discourse" and "so vague and all-encompassing as to have lost much meaning".[7]: 14 

Moral hazard

CE may reduce the urgency of reducing carbon emissions,[27] a form of moral hazard. This concern causes many environmental groups and campaigners to oppose any research for fear of reducing the urgency of cutting greenhouse gas emissions.[28] However, several public opinion surveys and focus groups reported either desire to increase emission cuts in the presence of climate engineering, or of no effect.[29][30][31][32][33][34][35] Other modelling work suggests that the prospect of climate engineering may in fact increase the likelihood of emissions reduction.[36][37][38][39]

Politics

Some environmental organizations (such as Friends of the Earth[27] and Greenpeace[40]) have been reluctant to endorse or oppose solar geoengineering, but are often more supportive of nature-based carbon dioxide removal projects, such as afforestation and peatland restoration. Some commentators appear fundamentally opposed. The ETC Group called for a moratorium on climate engineering techniques.[41]

Appel claims that independent of the economic, scientific, and technical aspects, the difficulty of achieving concerted climate action requires other approaches.[42] Adam claims that such difficulties,[43] represented by the failure of the Kyoto Protocol, leave little choice.[27] However, Steffen notes that CE is supported by think tanks with a history of opposition to emissions reductions showing that CE proposals are merely a means of stalling such reductions.[44]

Ethics and responsibility

Climate engineering implies a large-scale, intentional effort to modify the climate. It differs from burning fossil fuels, which changes the climate inadvertently in pursuit of other benefits.[45][better source needed] It questions whether humans have the right to deliberately change the climate, and under what conditions. For example, using climate engineering to stablize temperatures is not the same as doing so to optimize the climate for some other purpose. Some religious traditions express views on the relationship between humans and their surroundings that encourage (to conduct responsible stewardship) or discourage (to avoid hubris) explicit actions to affect climate.[46][47] Because climate affects all parts of Earth, the views of all nations should reasonably be considered in making decisions about climate.[48][better source needed]

CE can play a role in global inequality (environmental justice). Emissions are concentrated in a small number of countries.[49] The largest emitters benefit directly from their emissions, while the climate impacts affect all countries. Wealthier nations have far greater per capita and cumulative emissions than their poorer counterparts. Poorer nations lack the resources to protect their people from climate change's negative impacts or to manage their own carbon footprints.[50]

Governance

Governance issues relating to carbon dioxide removal are distinct from those surrounding CE. The key governance problem for carbon dioxide removal (as with emissions reductions) is making sure actors do enough of it (minimizing "free riders"), whereas the key governance issue for CE is making sure actors do not do it too much (managing "free drivers").[51]

No universally agreed framework for the regulation of CE activity or research has been established. Scholars at the Oxford Martin School at Oxford University proposed a set of principles to guide climate engineering research and use. The short version is:[52]

  • Regulate as a public good.
  • Public participation in decision-making
  • Disclose research and open publication of results
  • Independent assessment of impacts
  • Governance before deployment

These principles were endorsed by the House of Commons of the United Kingdom Science and Technology Select Committee on "The Regulation of Geoengineering".[53][54]

The Asilomar International Conference on Climate Intervention Technologies was convened to identify and develop risk reduction guidelines for climate intervention experimentation.[55]

The Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity made three decisions on what they termed "climate-related geo-engineering." A decision in 2010 called on countries to refrain from "climate-related geo-engineering activities that may affect biodiversity" until they are governed, are scientifically justified, and associated risks have been considered.[56] Some critics describe this as a "de facto moratorium,"[57] but the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity calls it a “non-binding normative framework.”[58] Legal scholars Scott and Reynolds separately reject this characterization.[59][60] The 2016 decision called for "more transdisciplinary research and sharing of knowledge among appropriate institutions is needed in order to better understand the impacts."[61]

Public perception

A large 2018 study used an online survey to investigate public perceptions of six climate engineering methods in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand.[62] Compared to a similar 2012 survey in Australia and New Zealand[63] public awareness of climate engineering was low; less than a fifth of respondents reported prior knowledge. Perceptions of the six CE methods were largely negative and frequently associated with attributes like 'risky', 'artificial' and 'unknown effects'. Carbon dioxide removal methods were preferred over solar geoengineering. Public perceptions were remarkably stable with only minor differences between the different countries in the surveys.[62][63]

In a 2017 focus group study conducted by the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) in the United States, Japan, New Zealand, and Sweden, participants were asked about carbon sequestration options, reflection proposals such as with space mirrors, or brightening of clouds. Their majority responses could be summed up as follows:

  • What happens if the technologies backfire?
  • Are these solutions treating the symptoms of climate change rather than the cause?
  • Shouldn't we change our lifestyle and consumption patterns to fight climate change, making climate engineering the last resort?
  • Isn't there a greater need to address political solutions to reduce our emissions?

Moderators floated the idea of a future "climate emergency" such as rapid environmental change. The participants felt that mitigation and adaptation were strongly preferred options, while CE was seen as a last resort.[64]

Evaluations

Most of what is known about the suggested techniques are based on laboratory experiments, observations of natural phenomena, and computer modeling techniques. Some proposed climate engineering methods employ methods that have analogs in natural phenomena such as stratospheric sulfur aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei. As such, studies about the efficacy of these methods can draw on information already available from other research, such as that following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. However, comparative evaluation of the relative merits of each technology is complicated, especially given modeling uncertainties and the early stage of engineering development of many proposed climate engineering methods.[65]

Several organizations have investigated climate engineering with a view to evaluating its potential, including the US Congress,[66] the US National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,[67] the Royal Society,[68] the UK Parliament,[69] the Institution of Mechanical Engineers,[70] and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IMechE report examined a small subset of proposed methods (air capture, urban albedo and algal-based CO2 capture techniques), and its main conclusions were that climate engineering should be researched and trialed at the small scale alongside a wider decarbonization of the economy.[70]

The Royal Society review examined a wide range of proposed climate engineering methods and evaluated them in terms of effectiveness, affordability, timeliness, and safety (assigning qualitative estimates in each assessment). The key recommendations reports were that "Parties to the UNFCCC should make increased efforts towards mitigating and adapting to climate change, and in particular to agreeing to global emissions reductions", and that "[nothing] now known about geoengineering options gives any reason to diminish these efforts".[29] Nonetheless, the report also recommended that "research and development of climate engineering options should be undertaken to investigate whether low-risk methods can be made available if it becomes necessary to reduce the rate of warming this century".[29]

In a 2009 review study, Lenton and Vaughan evaluated a range of proposed climate engineering techniques.[71] In order to permit a comparison of disparate techniques, they used a common evaluation for each technique based on its effect on net radiative forcing. As such, the review examined the scientific plausibility of proposed methods rather than the practical considerations such as engineering feasibility or economic cost. Lenton and Vaughan found that "[air] capture and storage shows the greatest potential, combined with afforestation, reforestation and bio-char production", and noted that "other suggestions that have received considerable media attention, in particular, "ocean pipes" appear to be ineffective".[71] They concluded that "[climate] geoengineering is best considered as a potential complement to the mitigation of CO2 emissions, rather than as an alternative to it".[71]

In October 2011, a Bipartisan Policy Center panel issued a report urging immediate researching and testing in case "the climate system reaches a 'tipping point' and swift remedial action is required."[72]

The US National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conducted a 21-month project to study the potential impacts, benefits, and costs of climate engineering. The differences between these two classes of climate engineering "led the committee to evaluate the two types of approaches separately in companion reports, a distinction it hopes carries over to future scientific and policy discussions."[73][74][75] The resulting study titled Climate Intervention was released in February 2015 and consists of two volumes: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth[76] and Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration.[77] According to their brief about the study:[78][76]

Climate intervention is no substitute for reductions in carbon dioxide emissions and adaptation efforts aimed at reducing the negative consequences of climate change. However, as our planet enters a period of changing climate never before experienced in recorded human history, interest is growing in the potential for deliberate intervention in the climate system to counter climate change... Carbon dioxide removal strategies address a key driver of climate change, but research is needed to fully assess if any of these technologies could be appropriate for large-scale deployment. Albedo modification strategies could rapidly cool the planet's surface but pose environmental and other risks that are not well understood and therefore should not be deployed at climate-altering scales; more research is needed to determine if albedo modification approaches could be viable in the future.

See also

References

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Books and reports

Further reading