Demographic threat

The phrase demographic threat, (or demographic bomb) is used in Israeli politics to describe the perceived threat the growth of its Arab citizenry and the growth of the Palestinian population in the occupied territories poses to the maintenance of its status as a Jewish state.

Origins

According to Nur Masalha, issues of demography as expressed in the use of the term "demographic threat" became an obessesion among Israeli leaders after Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip in the wake of the 1967 war. Masalha pointed to a Maariv editorial by Shmuel Schnitzer published on 29 September 1967 that suggested that Jews should be encouraged to have large families while Palestinians in the occupied territories and in Israel should be encouraged to adopt birth control measures. Schnitzer also advocated for the adoption of an open policy encouraging Palestinians to emigrate overseas.

As applied to Arab citizens

The term was famously used by Benjamin Netanyahu in 2003 when he noted that if the percentage of Arab citizens rises above its current level of about 20 percent, Israel will not be able to remain both Jewish and democratic. Netanyahu's comments were criticized as racist by Arab Knesset members and the Association for Civil Rights in Israel.

The increasing population of Arabs within Israel, and the majority status they hold in two major geographic regions - the Galilee and the Triangle - has become a growing point of open political contention in recent years. Dr. Wahid Abd Al-Magid, the editor of Al-Ahram's "Arab Strategic Report" predicts that "...The Arabs of 1948 (i.e. Israeli Arabs) may become a majority in Israel in 2035, and they will certainly be the majority in 2048." Among Arabs, Muslims have the highest birth rate, followed by Druze, and then Christians.

Some Israeli politicians advocate land-swap proposals in order to assure a continued Jewish majority within Israel. A specific proposal is that Israel transfer sovereignty of part of the Arab-populated Wadi Ara area (west of the Green Line) to a future Palestinian state, in return for formal sovereignty over the major Jewish settlement "blocks" that lie inside the West Bank east of the Green Line.)

Critics of the Wadi Ara land swap plan have argued that this measure will not be enough since "The number of Arab Israelis would drop by 116,000-148,000, or a total of 8.2-10.5 percent of the Arab population of Israel, and just 2.1 percent of the population in general," while most Israeli Arabs object to trading Israeli citizenship for Palestinian citizenship.

Israeli historian Benny Morris states:

The Israeli Arabs are a time bomb. Their slide into complete Palestinization has made them an emissary of the enemy that is among us. They are a potential fifth column. In both demographic and security terms they are liable to undermine the state. So that if Israel again finds itself in a situation of existential threat, as in 1948, it may be forced to act as it did then. If we are attacked by Egypt (after an Islamist revolution in Cairo) and by Syria, and chemical and biological missiles slam into our cities, and at the same time Israeli Palestinians attack us from behind, I can see an expulsion situation. It could happen. If the threat to Israel is existential, expulsion will be justified...

Avigdor Liberman of Yisrael Beytenu, the 4th largest faction in the 17th Knesset) is one of the foremost advocates the transfer of large Arab towns located just inside Israel near the border with the West Bank (e.g. Tayibe, Umm al-Fahm, Baqa al-Gharbiyye), to the jurisdiction of the Palestinian Authority in exchange for Israeli settlements located inside the West Bank. As the London Times notes: "Lieberman plans to strengthen Israel’s status as a Jewish state by transferring 500,000 of its minority Arab population to the West Bank, by the simple expedient of redrawing the West Bank to include several Arab Israeli towns in northern Israel. Another 500,000 would be stripped of their right to vote if they failed to pledge loyalty to Zionism."

In October of 2006, Yisrael Beytenu formally joined in the ruling government's parliamentary coalition, headed by Kadima and also made up of the Labour Party and the Pensioner's Party. After the Israeli Cabinet confirmed Avigdor Lieberman's appointment to the position of Minister for Strategic Threats, Labour Party representative and Science, Sport and Culture Minister Ophir Pines-Paz, resigned his post. In his resignation letter to Ehud Olmert, Pines-Paz wrote, "I couldn't sit in a government with a minister who preaches racism"

A January 2006 study by the American-Israel Demographic Research Group rejects the "demographic time bomb" threat based on statistical data collected since 1995 that shows that Jewish Israeli births have increased rapidly while Arab Israeli births have begun to drop. The study noted shortcomings in earlier demographic predictions (for example, in the 1960s, predictions suggested that Arabs would be the majority in 1990). The study also demonstrated that Christian Arab and Druze birth rates were actually below those of Jewish birth rates in Israel. The study used data from a Gallup poll to demonstrate that the desired family size for Arab and Jewish Israelis were the same. The study's population forecast for 2025 predicted that Arabs would comprise only 25.0% of the Israeli population.

Bibliography

• Masalha, Nur (2000). Imperial Israel And The Palestinians: The Politics of Expansion. Pluto Press. ISBN 0745316158