676
FXUS62 KMLB 161256
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
856 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Persistent low-level ridging continues across the central FL
peninsula. The ECSB will develop and push inland this afternoon
and combined with deep moisture, surface heating, and boundary
collisions - expect SCT-NMRS showers and lightning storms
reaching peak coverage and intensity in the late afternoon and
early evening. Greatest chances will be west of I-95 and Cape
northward. Primary storm threats include frequent lightning
strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph locally, and heavy downpours.
The slow/erratic movement of storms could lead to a quick 1 to 3
inch rainfall total in spots. Minor/nuisance flooding may result
in these areas or any locations that have recently seen abundant
rainfall. Activity is forecast to diminish thru mid to late
evening with clouds thinning overnight.

The heat continues to be a primary concern with forecast highs
continuing in the L-M90s and peak heat indices reaching 102-107F.
HeatRisk, a forecast that evaluates whether there is an elevated
risk of heat-related impacts, is Moderate to Major across east
central Florida. Everyone should continue to take action to
prevent heat-related illness, including taking frequent breaks in
the shade or in an air conditioned building if spending extended
periods of time outdoors as well as remaining well-hydrated. Warm
and muggy conditions will persist into the overnight hours, with
lows only dropping into the M-U70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Isold SHRA lifting north this morning may affect KSUA-KVRB. Then
Isolated SHRA/TSRA may develop near KTIX-KDAB as east coast sea
breeze forms in the early afternoon, while greatest convective
coverage will be across inland TAF sites, around 19-00Z, as sea
breeze moves inland and where boundary interactions are more
likely. Maintained VCTS at MLB and added TEMPO groups for MVFR
conds in TSRA at DAB/TIX/MCO/SFB/LEE from 20Z-23Z. Winds becoming
S to SE 5-6 knots after sunrise backing E/SE around 10 knots
behind the sea breeze aft 16Z at coastal terminals. Diurnal
convection should diminish by 02-03Z followed by a quiet/VFR
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist
across the local Atlantic waters as an area of high pressure
remains in place across the western Atlantic. Winds will remain
between 5 to 10 knots out of the south, becoming slightly
stronger at 10 to 15 knots out of the southeast as the sea breeze
develops. Seas are forecast to remain between 2 to 3 feet.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across
the local waters through the period, primarily during the late
evening and overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  93  76 /  60  30  40  10
MCO  94  76  95  77 /  70  30  40  10
MLB  90  76  91  78 /  40  20  20  10
VRB  92  75  92  76 /  30  10  20  10
LEE  94  77  94  78 /  70  30  60  10
SFB  94  76  95  77 /  70  30  40  10
ORL  94  77  95  78 /  70  30  40  10
FPR  92  74  92  76 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly