369
FXUS62 KMLB 150555
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
155 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Some drier air is moving in from the east across the Treasure
Coast region. Earlier onset of the sea breeze from KVRB-KSUA and
the drier air should limit any shower/storm development at these
terminals through the TAF period. However, scattered to numerous
SHRA/TSRA should develop along the inland moving sea breeze
boundaries and any collisions across the interior through the
afternoon/early evening hours. CAMs show convective initiation
just inland from the Cape in the early afternoon so have added
TEMPO groups for MVFR conds in TSRA starting off at TIX at
18Z-21Z, DAB 19Z-22Z...then 20Z-23Z SFB/MCO and 21Z-24Z LEE. May
need to add a convective wind gust to some of these TEMPOs.
Maintained VCTS at MLB. Lingering VCSH across interior and
northern terminals 00Z-02Z or so then a quiet/VFR overnight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Light debris cloud rainfall near to west of Orlando will gradually
diminish through midnight. Radar was showing a weak outflow
boundary still pushing southeast through Okeechobee County, which
may be able to lead to a brief shower or two across this region
over the next couple hours. Otherwise, no additional showers or
storms are expected overnight over land, with only isolated
showers possible over the coastal waters tonight. However, GOES-16
TPW imagery shows drier air already pushing in from the east
across the Treasure Coast waters, so this should help limit any
shower redevelopment over the waters through late tonight.

Temperatures have already fallen to the mid to upper 70s across
the interior where greater coverage of showers and storms
occurred. Temps will remain fairly stationary for the remainder of
the night across this region, while temps along the coast,
currently in the low to mid 80s will also see lows in the mid to
upper 70s later tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Rather tranquil marine weather persists as a ridge of surface high
pressure extends westward into the local Atlantic through this week.
Isolated showers and storms are forecast, but long stretches dry
weather are likely. Southeast winds 5-12 KT through at least mid-
week, except ESE 10-15 KT nearshore in the afternoon as the sea
breeze forms. Seas 2-3 FT, except up to 4 FT well offshore north of
Sebastian Inlet through early Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  93  76 /  60  50  60  20
MCO  94  77  95  76 /  60  50  60  10
MLB  91  77  90  76 /  40  20  40  10
VRB  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
LEE  93  78  94  78 /  70  60  70  20
SFB  94  77  95  76 /  60  50  60  20
ORL  95  78  95  77 /  60  50  60  20
FPR  91  75  92  75 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Kelly