383
FXUS62 KMLB 181127
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
727 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 636 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Will monitor Treasure Coast early this morning for some ISOLD
shower activity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to
develop this afternoon, initially along the Treasure Coast, where
VCTS begins at 16Z. Will see VCTS spread inland through 20Z, with
TEMPOs included for CIG/VIS reductions. Confidence in seeing
showers or storms directly over DAB, LEE, TIX, or MLB is lower, so
have not included TEMPOs at this time, but will need to monitor
in future updates. Southeasterly winds behind the sea breeze today
becoming up to 10kts. Then, convection and wind speeds are
forecast to diminish this evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Key Messages:

 - Better chance for showers/storms near the Space/Treasure coasts
   today as east coast sea breeze should be more active as it
   develops in the early afternoon, then shifting inland.

 - Peak heat indices 103 to 106 today may increase up to 109
   Friday and the weekend producing Major HeatRisk with pockets of
   Extreme HeatRisk. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of
   the area.

Today...Atlc high pressure ridge axis will remain draped across
central FL with a light south wind component, increasing out of
the E/SE behind the sea breeze this afternoon 10-15 mph with some
higher gusts near the coast. A narrowing ribbon of drier air can
be seen on GOES-16 Precip water product across central FL. But
higher moisture still exists across the far north (Lake/Volusia)
and an increase in moisture is occurring over southern sections.
This should allow the east coast sea breeze to become active with
scattered showers/storms along/just inland from the coast south
of the Cape by early afternoon. Focus for storms will shift inland
for the late aftn/eve. Max temps look very similar to yesterday
with lower 90s coast and mid 90s interior. Dewpoints/humidity will
be a bit higher so it should feel a little more oppressive with
peak heat indices back to 102 to 106 with Moderate to Major
HeatRisk for the area.

Fri-Wed...The ridge axis will remain nearly stationary across the
area Friday then lift slowly northward this weekend. The ribbon
of drier air will get mixed out and higher PWATs of 1.8 to 2"
return. Weaker flow aloft will continue to allow the development
and progression inland of the east coast sea breeze, with showers
and storms developing along it. The eventual sea breeze and
additional outflow boundary collisions across the interior will
lead to increasing coverage of showers and storms in the
afternoon. Model guidance indicates approach of deeper moisture
from the SE around the southern periphery of the Atlc ridge,
possibly assocd with a weak tropical wave. Such an influx of
tropical moisture should increase rain chances and potential for
heavy rain Mon-Tue. Have capped rain chances at 70%.

Slightly above normal temperatures are forecast to continue
across east central Florida, with afternoon highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. With some
increase in humidity Fri-Sun, peak heat indices will have a
better chance to reach 108 to 109 in some spots which would
trigger a Heat Advisory. At a minimum, Moderate to Major HeatRisk
will continue each day with pockets of Extreme HeatRisk possible.
As clouds and rain chances increase early next week, the heat
risk will subside.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 450 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist
through at least Sunday as an area of high pressure remains in
place across the local Atlantic waters. South winds will turn
onshore and freshen near the coast each afternoon behind the sea
breeze. Seas 2 to 3 feet, reaching up to 4 feet Monday offshore.
There is a better chance for scattered showers and storms to
develop by early afternoon near the coast south of the Cape along
the sea breeze before pushing inland. Increasing moisture early
next week - as soon as Sunday - will increase coverage of
rain/storms over the Atlc.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  93  77 /  40  20  50  10
MCO  96  77  95  77 /  50  30  60  10
MLB  91  77  91  78 /  50  10  50  20
VRB  92  76  93  77 /  50  10  40  10
LEE  95  78  95  78 /  50  40  60  20
SFB  95  77  95  77 /  50  20  60  20
ORL  96  78  95  78 /  50  30  60  20
FPR  91  76  93  77 /  50  10  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Leahy