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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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336 FXUS62 KMLB 131412 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1012 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Partly cloudy skies across ECFL this morning with KMLB 88D only showing ISOLD convection over the local coastal waters and along the WCFL coast. Temperatures already in the 80s with dewpoints well into the 70s as we endure yet another hot/humid day. Surface heating and adequate moisture will combine with future boundary collisions to promote SCT-NMRS showers/lightning storms this afternoon and evening. Both sea breezes (west-east) will be active and provide strongest convection late today across the eastern/central FL peninsula. Movement is forecast slow to the north, but expect some erratic movement with larger boundary collisions. Primary storm threats continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to around 40 mph locally, and torrential downpours leading to minor and nuisance flooding. Activity will diminish thru mid-late evening with clouds thinning overnight. Winds generally light/variable, esp over the interior, but will transition to ESE/SE with sea breeze passage. Highs should top out in the L-M90s with peak Heat Indices in the 103- 107 range areawide, staying just below Heat Advisory criteria. Overnight lows mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 740 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to continue outside of convection. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop today, with some showers possible along the Treasure Coast terminals after 15Z. VCTS will be possible along the coastal terminals after 17Z along the sea breeze as it moves inland. A sea breeze collision later this afternoon will serve as the primary driver for convective development across the interior after 18Z, with TEMPOs for MVFR VIS/CIG due to TSRA added in with this package between 20-23Z. Activity is forecast to diminish after 03Z, with winds becoming light and variable to calm overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 523 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Today-Tonight... High pressure across the western Atlantic will build over the local waters today, causing the winds to become south- southeast, with speeds generally around 10 KT. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland this afternoon, increasing winds to 10-15 KT. Seas will be 2-3 ft. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast this afternoon and evening, some storms could produce wind guests in excess of 34 KT and locally higher seas. Sunday-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions outside of convection expected through mid-week. South to southeast winds will persist through the time period, with speeds generally around 10 KT. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, which will back the winds more east-southeast and increase the winds to 10- 15 KT. Seas 2-3ft, building to 2-4ft on Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible each afternoon and into early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 77 93 76 / 50 30 50 30 MCO 94 77 95 77 / 70 20 70 20 MLB 91 77 91 77 / 40 30 40 20 VRB 91 76 92 76 / 40 30 40 20 LEE 94 79 94 78 / 70 20 70 30 SFB 95 77 94 77 / 70 20 70 20 ORL 95 78 95 78 / 70 20 70 20 FPR 91 76 92 76 / 40 20 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Tollefsen