696
FXUS62 KMLB 121114
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
714 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 714 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Confidence in shower and storm development has diminished slightly
due to drier air aloft and increased cloud coverage potentially
limiting development. Decided to hold of on adding TEMPOs due to
this uncertainty, but kept in mention of VCTS after 20Z. Winds
will remain out of the southwest across the interior and become
southeasterly along the coast due to the development and inland
push of the east coast sea breeze. A sea breeze collision is
anticipated to occur closer to the east coast of Florida today,
which would be the driver behind any shower and storm development
today. If activity is able to get going and overcome the limiting
factors, it should clear out by 03Z, with winds becoming light
out of the southwest overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 510 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Key Messages:

- Highest daily afternoon rain and storm chances begin to focus
  west of I-95 this weekend into next week

- Heat ramps up this weekend, especially Sunday, with heat indices
  of 105 to 107 degrees continuing into next week

Current... Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are
ongoing early this morning, mainly across the Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee counties. This activity is generally moving southward,
around 10 to 15 mph. Surface observations show low and high level
clouds streaming across the local area, with higher coverage of
clouds across the south.

Today-Tonight... Upper level low over the FL peninsula will slowly
shift north and westward through the day. A surface low off the
coast of northern FL/Georgia/S. Carolina will slowly shift westward
across the Deep south through tonight, as high pressure axis in the
western Atlantic builds westwards towards the eastern US coastline
and the Florida peninsula. Locally, winds will become SSW today
around 10 mph or less with the east coast sea breeze trying to
develop in the afternoon, but will remain pinned along the coast.
The 23Z XMR sounding shows a substantial dry layer in the mid
levels, with a smaller, but still adequate dry layer in the upper
layers. Forecast soundings also show this dry layer in the mid
levels, with PW values decreasing to around 1.7-2.0" with the higher
PW values occurring across the south. This drier air across the
north could limit rain and storm chances across that area today.
Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will continue to be
possible across the south, mainly across the Okeechobee and Treasure
Coast counties through the morning. Scattered showers and storms
will once again be possible in the afternoon with sufficient daytime
heating. Forecast soundings continue to show rather weak mid level
lapse rates, weak flow aloft, and decent DCAPE. Thus, storm motion
will be slow, which could lead to localized flooding if a storm
remains over an area for a longer period of time with heavy
rainfall. Storms today will be capable of producing frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph, and locally heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will begin a warming trend today, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will be in the
low to mid 70s with light S/SSW winds.

Saturday-Sunday... High pressure across the western Atlantic will
build westward across Florida and the Deep south through the
weekend. Locally, winds will become south to southeast on Saturday,
persisting through the weekend with speeds generally around 10 mph
or less. This will bring a more notable development of the east
coast sea breeze each afternoon. Scattered shower and lightning
storms are forecast each afternoon. The highest coverage (PoP 50-60
percent) focusing along and west of I-95 on Saturday, and from a
line extending from Lake Okeechobee up to Titusville and Daytona
westward, as the sea breeze moves westward and interacts with
outflows and the west coast sea breeze during the afternoon and
early evening.

Warming trend will continue into the weekend, so be sure to plan
ahead and stay cool and hydrated!  Afternoon highs will be in the
low to mid 90s, under partly sunny skies. These warm temperatures
coupled with higher dew points will result in peak heat indices
ranging between 105-107 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 70s.

Monday-Thursday... High pressure across the western Atlantic will
continue to build westward into the GOMEX and across the Deep south
into mid-week. Locally, southeasterly flow will persist, with speeds
around 10 mph or less. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form
each afternoon, backing the winds onshore east to southeast and
increasing the winds to 10-15 mph. Scattered showers and lightning
storms expected each afternoon and early evening. The highest
coverage of showers and storms through mid-week will focus across
the interior, as well as along and north of the I-4 corridor, where
boundary collisions between sea breezes and outflows are expected.

Temperatures will continue the warming trend into mid-week, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. These warm temperatures
coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat indices between
105-108 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 510 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Today-Tonight...Low pressure over the Florida peninsula today is
forecast to shift north and westward through tonight. Another early
start to convection today, with scattered showers and isolated
lightning storms ongoing this morning. This activity is generally
moving southward around 10-15 KT. Additional showers and storms are
forecast to redevelop into the afternoon and early evening, with the
greatest coverage of showers and storms occurring from Cape
Canaveral southward. Winds will become south-southwest today, with
speeds 10-15 KT. A few storms could produce wind guests in excess of
34 KT and locally higher seas. Seas will be 2-3ft.

Saturday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions outside of
convection expected through early week. South to southeast winds
will develop on Saturday and continue through early week, with
speeds generally around 10 KT. The east coast sea breeze is forecast
to form each afternoon starting this weekend and continuing through
early week, which will back the winds more east-southeast and
increase the winds to 10-15 KT. Seas 2-3ft, building to 2-4ft on
Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and lightning storms will be
possible each afternoon and into early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  76  94  77 /  40  20  40  20
MCO  94  76  94  77 /  60  20  60  20
MLB  91  76  91  77 /  60  30  40  30
VRB  91  74  92  77 /  60  30  40  30
LEE  95  79  94  79 /  40  10  60  20
SFB  95  77  94  77 /  50  20  60  20
ORL  94  78  94  78 /  50  20  60  20
FPR  91  74  92  77 /  60  20  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen