-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
381
FXUS61 KOKX 021446
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1046 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure system will be moving in with its front today
and will linger across the area going through this weekend. Weak
high pressure builds into the region on Monday before another
cold front passes through the area Monday night. The front
remains in close proximity to the area through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PoPs adjusted for the rest of this morning with showers and iso
thunderstorms NW of the city. No other significant changes made
to the forecast database.

Weak low pressure system and associated frontal boundary move
within the local area today, meanwhile, a stronger low pressure
system in Great Lakes will be approaching the local region.

Clouds expected to increase this afternoon from west to east.
Besides the morning convection, NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley
will likely have convection starting mid to late afternoon.

There remains a heat advisory in effect with widespread forecast
max heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100. Coastal SE CT
and Eastern Suffolk NY still are not included as temperatures
will be relatively cooler with therefore relatively lower heat
indices - more in the lower 90s but there will be some areas
reaching at least 95.

SW Suffolk was added to the heat advisory with most heat indices in
the mid to upper 90s. Also added Orange and Putnam with heat
indices now expected to reach the mid 90s this afternoon.
However, with these areas in Orange and Putnam expected to have
more shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday and higher POPs,
these two zones have their heat advisory only until 8pm this
evening.

A MAV/MET blend used for highs with manual adjustments as needed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heat advisory continues for much of the same areas as listed in
near term for Saturday until 7pm that evening. Models show a
lull in convection for morning into early afternoon with some
weak ridging in mid levels before more convection develops and
moves through late with approach of the mid level shortwave.
Airmass will remain very humid with mid to upper 90s heat
indices forecast for many locations once again.

The stronger low pressure system continues to move into the area
tonight. The associated cold front will be moving within the region
from west to east.

The cold front appears to come to a halt within the region for the
weekend.

For tonight, the convection moves across the region from west
to east, bulk of it during the evening hours. Drying conditions
overnight gradually re-establish in the area. Moisture laden low
levels and very humid airmass along with lightening winds
expected to result in patchy fog development overnight into
early Saturday morning.

Next round of showers and thunderstorms appears to be late
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

More showers and thunderstorms develop Sunday into Sunday evening
within the forecast region.

These next rounds of showers and thunderstorms seem to be tied
to positive vorticity maxima making their way into the local
region ahead of and along a mid level trough. Main trough axis
gets to the local region by Sunday.

Bulk shear increases more for this weekend so thunderstorms
could produce strong to possibly severe wind gusts in addition
to heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure briefly builds in for Monday ahead
of a cold front approaching from the NW. The airmass looks to be
drier and more stable, thus chances of convection along the
front late in the day and at night are low.

There is a bit more uncertainty heading into midweek with the
potential for a tropical system near the Southeast coast. It is too
early to specify the interaction with the frontal boundary close the
area for the midweek period. There will be low chances for
convection at this time. The associated tropical disturbance is
being monitored by the NHC for development over the Greater
Antilles. Please refer to the latest NHC products for the monitoring
of this system.

The warmest day in the long term will be Monday with highs in the
upper 80 to lower 80s. By mid week, temperatures will remain in the
upper 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal system will slowly approach the region today.

Mainly VFR today. Showers with perhaps some embedded thunder are
continuing to impact KSWF through 16Z. Otherwise, there is a chance
of MVFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the evening, with the best chances north and west of
NYC. A stronger thunderstorm is possible with gusty winds. The
timing of TEMPO group may need to be shifted an hour or two in
subsequent forecasts.

Any light and variable wind this morning becomes southerly
everywhere and increases to 10-15kt during the afternoon.
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt are possible during the afternoon.
Winds diminish tonight, becoming light and variable at most
terminals.

Tonight, stratus and/or fog is forecast to develop across portions
of the area. IFR or lower conditions will be possible, especially in
areas that receive rainfall.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There may be a few to isolated showers and thunderstorms early this
afternoon, then a chance of thunderstorms late in the day, with
timing uncertain. A stronger thunderstorm with gusty winds is
possible. The timing of the TEMPO group may need to be adjusted by
an hour or two.

Southerly winds may become occasionally gusty at KEWR, KLGA, and
KTEB, up to 20kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday-Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through much of Saturday. Southerly
fetch builds ocean seas to near SCA levels Saturday afternoon
and at SCA levels by late afternoon for parts of the ocean. More
SCA level ocean seas forecast thereafter through the rest of the
weekend. Wind gusts could also potentially get to SCA levels for
portions of the waters especially for late Saturday afternoon,
Saturday night and into the latter half of this weekend.

Seas will gradually diminish Monday in a weakening flow and a
diminishing southerly swell.

Swells from a potential tropical system off the Southeast coast
could impact the ocean waters later next week. Please refer to
the latest NHC products for the monitoring of this system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms could lead to some
locally heavy downpours going through this weekend. WPC has a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for much of the region
today, with a slight risk west of the Hudson. Mainly minor
urban and poor drainage flood impacts potential with PWATs
exceeding 2 inches. Localized flash flooding cannot be ruled
out.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches continues
today into Saturday, due to a residual 3-ft swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ005>010.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ069>075-078-
     176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067-068.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ080.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/MW
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...