Weekend wagers: Eight bets to make on eight sports

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, July 6, 2024 | 2 a.m.

It’s a transitional time for Weekend Wagers.

Now that the calendar has struck July, football preparation has started to dominate much of my handicapping brainpower. We’re still a couple months away from this column shifting into the Sunday Sweats setup, but also past the time where ignoring football is acceptable.

From now through the end of the season, at least one football bet will be included in every Weekend Wagers entry. To kick off the return of the country’s most popular sport to bet on, I’ll include a college football and NFL future as part of this week’s betting card.

I’ll also bid farewell, for now, to the two lifebloods of Weekend Wagers this year with a pair of ultraearly plays on next year’s NHL and NBA seasons to sign off.

It’s feeling like a lot of football season overall. Get excited. Place some bets.

Read below for those four futures plays, along with four other bets going down this weekend. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Euros 2024 (1-2, -$170): Netherlands -0.5 -160 vs. Turkey (Caesars/William Hill)

$320 to win $200

It was a miracle that Turkey got past Austria in the opening round of the Knockout Stage, requiring one of the most clutch saves in Euros’ history. Netherlands is a whole heck of a lot better than Austria. Relatively undistinguished Turkey goaltender Mert Gunok may need to make three or four saves the caliber of the one at the end of the last match to give his team a chance against a global power like the Dutch. Netherlands has Turkey outgunned everywhere and should be able to advance pretty comfortably within 90 minutes.

WNBA (3-1, $270): New York Liberty -8.5 vs. Indiana Fever (Boyd Sports)

$220 to win $200

The Fever are playing significantly better lately, but this is a really tough spot coming off an extended West Coast road trip against what might be the best team in the WNBA. Yes, the Liberty are still right there with the Las Vegas Aces despite the latter finally getting their act together. In fact, I rate New York and Las Vegas evenly. The Aces just beat the Fever by 19 points four days ago at T-Mobile Arena. This one shouldn’t go much differently. New York is now almost fully healthy, and when the Liberty employs their full complement of players with proper motivation, they can blow out most teams in the league — definitely the Fever.

MLB (3-7, -$1,146): Atlanta Braves -105 vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Caesars/William Hill)

$210 to win $200

Yes, this is perhaps the starting pitcher who’s been the best in the league (Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez) against a struggling rookie (Atlanta’s Spencer Schwellenbach) but that doesn’t bother me. Schwellenbach actually might be a candidate for some positive regression as he’s got better stuff than his 5.68 ERA implies. And this is actually not all that tough of a matchup with the current state of the Phillies’ roster. Philadelphia is still more than capable, but it doesn’t strike the same fear into opponents with both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber on the injured list. Playing in Atlanta in a series the Braves are placing a huge emphasis on, they should be a larger favorite.   

NASCAR (5-13, -$100): Tyler Reddick to win Grant Park 165 at +625 (BetMGM)

$200 to win $1,250

This was 7-to-1 at a couple sports books earlier in the week, so it’s clearly on the move in the rightful direction. Jump on the price now before it’s too late on race day Sunday. I would play Reddick down to 6-to-1 for the Chicago street race. The reason is pretty simple — He’s been NASCAR’s best road-racer since the introduction of the next-gen car in 2022. Reddick has three wins on road courses in the span, but should probably have one or two more if it wasn’t for bad luck. Books seemingly can’t decide on a favorite between Reddick, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Shane van Gisbergen this week with all their prices bunched together. But I’d have them in the aforementioned order, with Reddick slightly more likely than Larson to prevail.   

College football (0-0, $0): Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy at 14-to-1 (SuperBook at Westgate La Vegas)

$200 to win $2,800

Oregon coach Dan Lanning and offensive coordinator Will Stein got Bo Nix to odds-on favorite status to win the Heisman going into conference championship weekend last year. Why can’t they do the same with Gabriel? The former Oklahoma and UCF passer arrives in Eugene, Ore., with a better statistical profile than Nix did when he transferred from Auburn. Gabriel's got an embarrassment of riches at his disposal at the skill positions, led by likely All-American receiver Tez Johnson, and a senior-laden offensive line. Oregon is going to be a big favorite in every game except against Ohio State — and it gets that one at home. Gabriel might not be the best quarterback in the country, but he’s set up to post the best numbers and that’s what wins the Heisman nowadays.   

NFL (0-0, $0): Dave Canales to win Coach of the Year at 20-to-1 (BetMGM)

$100 to win $2,000

The Carolina Panthers are 6-to-1 to make the playoffs and 11-to-1 to win the NFC South. There’s no reason the price on their new head coach winning this award should be so much higher. If Carolina earns a home playoff game one season removed from a 2-15 season, Canales almost certainly wins this award. He might even do it just for bringing a talent-deficient Panthers’ team to the playoffs. The latter scenario especially isn’t all that outlandish to me. There’s a reason why embattled second-year quarterback Bryce Young was the near-consensus top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Canales is known as a quarterback maestro. If anyone can get something out of Young, it’s Canales. And their schedule is manageable enough to make a finish around .500 seem like the most likely result of the season. Maybe they get a couple breaks, get to the playoffs and Canales gets awarded.   

NHL (9-6, $3,000): Carolina Hurricanes to win President’s Trophy at 15-to-1 (BetMGM)

$150 to win $2,250

Carolina has finished in the top three of the President’s Trophy race without ultimately winning in four straight seasons. At some point, the Hurricanes are bound to get the job done. There’s a perception that they’ve gotten weaker this offseason after losing Teuvo Teräväinen (to the Blackhawks) and Jake Guentzel (to the Lightning). but they haven’t fallen off nearly as much as their future odds suggest. While it’s top-six won’t be as strong next season, there’s a case to be made Carolina got deeper with underrated down-the-lineup additions including “Original Misfit” William Carrier. The Hurricanes nearly posted the best regular-season record this year despite going months with a disastrous goalie situation after Frederik Andersen had to go on long-term injured reserve with a blood-clotting issue. New faces in the lineup and stability in net should put them right back at the top of the standings.

NBA (7-4, $2,030): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP at 6-to-1 (BetMGM)

$300 to win $1,800

Anyone who suggests the Western Conference will be wide open next year is probably mistaken. It looks like the Thunder’s to lose in my opinion. Oklahoma City was the best team this regular season, and has only strengthened with the additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein over the last couple weeks. The futures market shifted somewhat accordingly, with Oklahoma City going from as high as +460 to win the West next season to now more in the +350 range. But Gilgeous-Alexander only trimmed from +650 to 6-to-1 to win MVP. That’s not enough considering some advanced statistics this season rated him every bit as valuable as the man who eventually beat him out, Denver’s Nikola Jokić. If the Thunder can put more distance in the standings between themselves and teams like the Nuggets and Mavericks (Luka Dončić sits behind Jokic as the second-favorite in this market) next year, Gilgeous-Alexander will have another advantage in his direction. That’s what I think is going to happen.     

2024 Weekend betting column: 68-69, $7,027.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 726-776-11, $38,308.87 

Previous pending wagers: Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Portugal to win Euro 2024 at +750 ($200 to win $1,500); Xander Schauffele to win The Open Championship at 16-to-1 ($180 to win $2,880); Collin Morikawa to win The Open Championship at 24-to-1 ($120 to win $2,880); New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or