Weekend wagers: Seven bets on seven different sports

Betting on the UEFA European Championships has accounted for a little more than 1% of Weekend Wagers’ all-time profit.

That’s well above expectation considering pre-pandemic, I couldn’t have told you the difference between Zinedine Zidane and Cristiano Ronaldo. But one of the most rewarding things about this column over the years is the way it’s forced me out of my comfort zone and into learning about and trying to handicap on other sports.

Euro 2020 might as well be Exhibit A. I ended up turning about a $400 profit in the column off 15 wagers, capping with a victory on Italy in the championship game.

Maybe it was all blind luck but I’m ready to tempt fate again.

Euro 2024 will be a staple in the column over the next month, as the top continental soccer competition plays out in Germany. And what better way to start it off than with a future to win it all?

I’ll take Portugal at +750 (risking $200 to win $1,500) at STN Sports to win Euro 2024. Ronaldo won the Golden Boot in 2020, led his country to its first Euro title in 2016 and now hopefully can still be beneficial in more of a leadership role as part of a young team poised for more success in 2024.

The Portuguese may not be one of the elite sides — they’re probably behind France, England and Spain in that respect — but they got a top-tier draw. They should win Group F with ease — as around a -250 favorite — and then be set up on the opposite side of France and England in the knockout stage.

Soccer certainly isn’t among the sports I feel most comfortable betting, but the unfamiliarity didn’t hold me back in the last Euros. It’s time to keep it going as a way to keep up with one of the biggest sporting events of the summer.

Read below for bets on six more sports. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Golf (4-4, $640): Jordan Spieth head-to-head in third round of the U.S. Open vs. Martin Kaymer at -185 (STN Sports)

$370 to win $200

The number on Spieth in this same matchup is as high as -225 elsewhere — more in line with where I make it. Kaymer won the last U.S. Open at Pinehurst 2, but 10 years have passed since then. The current LIV golfer is not the same player. Spieth is much worse than he was in his 2015 U.S. Open-winning heyday too but his game seems to be trending up. The three-time major champion sits fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. He's been a bottom 10 putter by strokes gained, which is the only reason he's tied with Kaymer at 3-over par through 36 holes. Kaymer should be happy just to make the cut, while Spieth can make some noise over the weekend — at least in the form of threatening for a top 20 or even top 10. Spieth is priced as a clear favorite in this matchup of former U.S. Open champions, but is really an even clearer favorite. 

College Baseball (0-0, $0): Texas A&M -140 vs. Florida (Circa Sports)

$280 to win $200

I promised a few weeks ago that some college baseball bets would be possible to include here at some point. Here we go. This line crashed all the way from around Texas A&M -200 when it was revealed Justin Lamkin, not Ryan Prager, would be starting for the Aggies in the final game of the first round of the College World Series. That’s too much movement for me. Prager is the Aggies’ Ace, and Lamkin has struggled lately, but the Aggies are still a lot better team than the pseudo-Cinderella Gators. Florida has reached Omaha despite getting a No. 3 regional seed as one of the last sides included in the 64-team field. The Gators are highly talented but their season-long struggles must carry some weight. The Aggies may no longer look like the best team in the nation as I coined them when placing a futures bet a few weeks ago after losing superstar outfielder Braden Montgomery to injury but they’re still awfully tough. I don’t see them falling into the loser’s bracket of the double-elimination final tournament this quickly.     

NHL (7-5, $550): Edmonton Oilers -115 vs. Florida Panthers in Game 4 of Stanley Cup Final (South Point)

$230 to win $200

Call me stubborn, as my Oilers in five games bet might go down as one of the worst in column history, but the Panthers have no business being up 3-0 in this series. The expected goals are nearly dead-even — Florida holds a .2-goal advantage per Natural Stat Trick — but the Panthers have gotten every break and now could clinch the series tonight. But Edmonton closed as high as a -150 favorite in Game 3. The only reason the line would be justified moving this far would be if Edmonton has totally quick. Maybe I’m naïve but I don’t think a team captained by Connor McDavid, not to mention saying all the right things, is going to go down that easily. Edmonton’s got at least one trip back to Florida in them. The series may very well end in five — just not for the team I called for.  

UFC (4-7, -$586): Nate Maness to win in Round 1 vs. Jimmie Flick at UFC Fight Night at +120 (STN Sports)

$200 to win $240

Flick is a skilled fighter and submission artist, but has shown to have one of the softest chins in the UFC. Each of Maness’ last two wins have come by knockout. That’s not a good setup. Perhaps taking Maness by knockout would seem like the wiser choice, but that prop is hovering around -200. There’s more value in taking a shot on a strike that rocks Flick arriving early, and Maness capitalizing on it. Maness is a -500 favorite in this fight with the under 1.5 rounds juiced at -200. Those lines alone imply that Maness getting a stoppage in the first five minutes shouldn’t be available at plus-money.

MLB (2-5, -$704): Los Angeles Dodgers -195 vs. Kansas City Royals (Caesars/William Hill)

$390 to win $200

Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto had a somewhat rocky start to the season and has been undervalued ever since. He’s quietly lived up to the hype since coming to America from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball lately, and will surely end the year considered one of the best pitchers in the league. I’m looking for every opportunity to bet on him including, yes, even when the number is this high. He should give Los Angeles a huge edge against Kansas City starter Seth Lugo, who’s trended in the other direction lately. I made this number Dodgers -225.

NASCAR (4-10, $100): Chris Buescher to finish the Top 10 of Iowa Corn 350 at +110 (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $220

Backing Buescher worked last week, as the Ford driver finished second to cash Weekend Wagers’ top-five prop bet at +200. There’s no reason not to run it back, albeit a little more conservatively. This is the first Cup series race ever at Iowa Speedway, so it’s hard to say the track sets up for Buescher to have success like Sonoma last week. But he remains on some of the best form in the whole series and getting him at this big of a price to finish in the top 10 doesn’t reflect his recent success accurately enough.

2024 Weekend betting column: 56-56, $5,939.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 714-763-11, $37,220.87

Previous pending wagers: Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); Florida Panthers to win Stanley Cup at 10-to-1 ($250 to win $2,500); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Wake Forest to win the College World Series at 25-to-1 ($100 to win $2,500); Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP at +260 ($500 to win $1,300); Texas A&M to win the College World Series at 6-to-1 ($350 to win $2,100); Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics -1.5 games vs. Dallas Mavericks in NBA Finals at Even money ($300 to win $300); Scottie Scheffler to win the U.S. Open at +450 ($400 to win $1,800)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or