Weekend Wagers: 11 bets to place on 11 different sports including Preakness

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, May 18, 2024 | 2 a.m.

The two weeks that have passed since the last Weekend Wagers have been highly fruitful.

Not only did plays in the last column yield a near $1,500 profit, but a pair of NBA awards futures cashed for a $2,000 bonus on top of it. Here’s a toast to Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama.

I wish I could celebrate by placing a wager on Game 7. The former will be a part of this weekend when his Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. Alas, the Nuggets -4.5 line falls right in line with my numbers.

I’ll have to go elsewhere in the NBA.

It’s a busy sports weekend, and I’m wanting to take full advantage. So, as an encore to one of the better stretches in the history of the column, let’s bet more than ever before with 11 bets on 11 sports.

Read on for all the plays. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Golf (3-4, $90): Xander Schauffele to win the PGA Championship at +275 (BetMGM)

$200 to win $550

The betting market is disrespecting the second-best golfer in the world. Yes, that’s pretty clearly what Schauffele has been this entire calendar year. But no wants to bet him to win a tournament because, well, he hasn’t won any tournaments and has found ways to slip into second place at the biggest events. But that’s not predictive going forward. Golf, and sports, history is littered with examples of players who aren’t “clutch” or “can’t get it done” until eventually they can. Schauffelle is going to win a major soon, and with the 36-hole lead including a three-shot advantage over world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, it might just be at Valhalla this weekend. If bettors could separate themselves enough to cover up the name, ignore the history and just analyze the statistical profile, there would be no way Schauffele would be as high as +275 right now. The price is undeniable value.  

UFL (3-0, $600): Michigan Panthers -8.5 vs. Memphis Showboats (BetMGM)

$220 to win $200

Yes, I’m aware no one seems to be paying attention to this league anymore. I thought about abandoning it in Weekend Wagers, too, but how could I do that with an undefeated record? Maybe the lack of visibility is a benefit to gamblers. It sure feels like it’s contributed to few realizing just how horrendous the Showboats have been. Memphis is getting outgained by nearly 2.5 yards per play and has lost five straight games by double digits. There’s a case to be made that they should be a double-digit underdog to any team in the league. That should certainly hold true against one of the better teams, and only Birmingham and St. Louis are better than Michigan to this point. The Panthers beat the Showboats 35-18 on the road three weeks ago, and there’s no reason to think the rematch will go much differently.

Horse Racing (0-2, -$370): Mystik Dan to NOT finish in top two of the Preakness Stakes at -120 (Circa Sports)

$240 to win $200

Oh, what pain will horse racing bring this week? Wait — it’s already happened. I bought Muth at an above-market price, and then he was subsequently scratched about 12 hours later with a fever. Sigh. The favored Bob Baffert horse’s absence makes it more likely that Mystik Dan can go two-for-two to threaten the Triple Crown, but I’m still not fully buying it. He caught all the breaks in the Kentucky Derby. It’s difficult to get that lucky two races in a row. The Preakness is a much smaller field, but there are a few horses I prefer to Mystik Dan, including Baffert’s Imagination and Chad Brown’s Tuscan Gold — both available at as high as 6-to-1 in fixed-odds pools around town. Instead of going for a big swing, however, I’ll just fade Mystik Dan for a shorter payout with this unique prop offering.

NHL (5-2, $550): Edmonton Oilers -184 vs. Vancouver Canucks in Game 6 (Circa)

$368 to win $200

The Oilers are a consummate playoff disappointment, but how do they not at least push the series with the Canucks to seven games? They’ve been the better team in the series despite trailing 3-2 but have been completely baffled by goalie Arturs Silovs. Maybe I should be buying on the 23-year-old AHL goalie by now, but I still can’t shake the suspicion that he’s going to regress at some point. Edmonton closed at higher than a -200 favorite in each of its previous two home games in this series. What makes Game 6 so different? I’ll stop short of saying the Oilers win the series given how much Silovs has owned them, but Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can’t possibly flame out 4-2 in another conference semifinal. Right?  

NBA (5-2, $2,400): Oklahoma City Thunder +4 at Dallas Mavericks in Game 6 (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

I hope this bet loses. I’ve got a Dallas series price that would be nice to cash today, not to mention the chance to keep alive a smaller Western Conference future position. But I still can’t shake the feeling that this spread is inflated. Dallas has closed a 1.5-point favorite in its two previous home games against Oklahoma City. Should the Thunder really be getting 2.5 extra points simply because they’re facing elimination? Oklahoma City has actually outscored Dallas by a point in the series and has often looked like the better team. That wasn’t the case in Game 5 when the Mavericks cruised to a 104-92 win as a 4.5-point road underdog, but that doesn’t mean they’re just going to pick up right where they left off. There are some adjustments to be made from Thunder coach Mark Daigneault, who may just help push a second Western Conference semifinal series to seven games.

Major League Baseball (1-2, -$354): Los Angeles Angels +120 at Texas Rangers (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $240

The pitching matchup is Patrick Sandoval versus José Ureña. Enough said. The Angels, for the umpteenth year in a row, look like a mess following an injury to Mike Trout, but they haven’t played poorly enough to adjust the line this far. Sandoval might not be a Cy Young contender, but he’s a solid pitcher whose underlying statistics indicate better days could be ahead of him. Ureña has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball for years, and that’s not changing despite jumping to his sixth team. This is much more of a coin-flip matchup than the odds indicate.

WNBA (0-0, $0): Atlanta Dream +1.5 -115 at Phoenix Mercury (Boyd)

$330 to win $300

This line makes no sense to me. Atlanta is on the up after adding former MVP Tina Charles to its roster this offseason and showed as much in a season-opening 92-81 win over the Los Angeles Sparks as 3.5-point favorites. Phoenix might be every bit as bad as Los Angeles as long as Brittney Griner remains out with an injury. Atlanta was a 7.5-point favorite the last time it played in Phoenix last season, and has a better roster now. Phoenix has improved since then, in fairness, but not by this much. Atlanta should be a decent-sized favorite in both teams’ second game of the season tonight.  

UFC (1-7, -$1,186): Lerone Murphy -140 vs. Edson Barboza (Wynn)

$280 to win $200

Barboza is an all-time great at least in terms of excitement, but his time is almost up. It’s not fair to expect the 38-year-old to consistently compete with the current prime of the lightweight division. Back-to-back wins over Billy Quarantillo and Sodiq Yusuff have fooled some into believing he’s capable, but the undefeated Murphy is another step up. Take away that last pair of upsets and Barboza would be a much bigger underdog in this matchup. This looks like a classic spot where the UFC is using a notable name from the past to help push over a rising star. The 32-year-old Murphy won’t waste the opportunity.   

NASCAR (1-8, -$340): Kyle Larson +135 vs. Chase Elliott head-to-head in All-Star Race (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$200 to win $270

Here’s part two of lines I absolutely cannot understand this week. The All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway does hold a great deal of variance considering it’s an exhibition, but if anything, that means every head-to-head line should be around a pick’em. How can the best driver of the year and defending champion of the event be available at a big plus price to a lesser teammate? Maybe there’s something I’m missing. Or maybe I’m just too attached to betting Larson what feels like each and every edition of the Weekend Wagers this year. But, hey, it finally worked in the last column when Larson won in Kansas City. Maybe he’ll come through again here today as an inexplicable underdog.  

College baseball: Texas A&M to win the College World Series at 6-to-1 (BetMGM)

$350 to win $2,100

The Aggies have gotten upset in two straight series to shoot these odds back into bettable range. Bet them now because this price won’t last long, especially if Texas A&M takes another game off Arkansas this afternoon. The Aggies might not be the hottest team in college baseball at the moment, but they’ve been the best team on the year as a whole. Any futures portfolio without them heading into the NCAA Tournament feels incomplete. It would be a shock if they didn’t at least get to Omaha as one of the final eight teams, and once there, they have the offense to do some serious damage. Despite the recent struggles, Texas A&M should be the favorite to win the College World Series at odds somewhat considerably lower than this.   

NFL (0-0, $0): Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 (Wynn)

$240 to win $200

OK, I’ll bite. Week 1 lines are a big topic of conversation at the moment after the NFL schedule release, so let’s at least get down on one of them. Let’s gobble up a key number that surely won’t be around by the time these AFC West teams kick off a little less than four months from now. A field goal line is just not enough for a starting quarterback matchup of Justin Herbert versus Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell. New Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh should have the franchise revitalized this year. Raiders coach Antonio Pierce impressed down the stretch of last year, but the Chargers also seem to have the advantage on the sideline, too. Don’t be surprised if hype takes over the Chargers wind up closer to a touchdown favorite by game time.

2024 Weekend betting column: 41-42, $4,814.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 699-749-11, $36,095.87

Previous pending wagers: Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); Florida Panthers to win Stanley Cup at 10-to-1 ($250 to win $2,500); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Wake Forest to win the College World Series at 25-to-1 ($100 to win $2,500); Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP at +260 ($500 to win $1,300)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.