O’Connell leads but Minshew remains favorite to win Raiders QB job

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, June 11, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Antonio Pierce opened a month-long stretch of pre-training camp practices in May by declaring Aidan O’Connell had, “earned the right to go out there and take the first snap,” in the Raiders’ quarterback competition.

The Raiders’ first-year coach has lived up to his word as the team concludes this portion of the offseason with mandatory minicamp running today through Thursday at their Henderson headquarters.

O’Connell, the second-year incumbent starter, and Gardner Minshew, a free-agent acquisition, have mostly split the snaps in sessions open to media. But O’Connell may have an ever-so-slight edge in terms of total workload and is always at the front of the rotation.

“I definitely feel more comfortable,” O’Connell said last week when asked about how he’s grown since his rookie season. “It’s obviously a competition, so I’m trying to put my best foot forward every day and do the best I can.”

Neither O’Connell nor Minshew have performed all that well against a confident Las Vegas defense that’s further along than the offense in part because of scheme continuity, but if anything, the former gets a checkmark in that category too.    

O’Connell has looked the part of an NFL starting quarterback, especially with a slimmed-down frame from last season to complement his 6-foot-3 stature that seems to tower over the 6-foot-1 Minshew when they’re next to each other. O’Connell’s spirals have looked tighter than Minshew’s, and he’s got a clear chemistry edge with emergent offensive weapons like fellow second-year players Tre Tucker and Michael Mayer.

Should this all be a signal to rush out to a non-Nevada sports book — the state gaming control board doesn’t permit such wagers — and bet O’Connell at around a 2-to-1 underdog to start the Raiders’ Week 1 game at the Chargers on Sept. 8?  

Not at all.

Industry titan DraftKings has the most well-circulated line on the Raiders’ quarterback competition, and its 57% implied probability slanted towards Minshew — he’s a -200 favorite (i.e. risking $200 to win $100) with O’Connell coming back at +150 (i.e risking $100 to win $150) — might be too short.

It’s fair to be encouraged by the strides O’Connell has shown since last season ended, but Minshew is still primed to take over at some point during the Raiders’ training-camp stay in Costa Mesa, Calif., beginning on July 19.

The clues are everywhere, and none are more obvious than the two-year, $25 million contract new general manager Tom Telesco gave Minshew in one of his first orders of business at the helm of the Raiders.

Minshew would be one of the, if not the single, highest-paid backup in the NFL if he starts the season behind O’Connell on the depth chart.

The free-agency deal Minshew signed to join the Raiders from the Indianapolis Colts would immediately look like a mistake, a misallocation of precious resources that the team could have used to fill other roster holes.

Las Vegas is still perilously thin at best at cornerback while many believe they could have also done more to strengthen the offensive line and running back ranks.  

Sure, no fans want their favorite team making decisions that constitute a sunk-cost fallacy, but it’s as prevalent in the modern-day NFL as run-pass option plays and streaming services.

O’Connell vs. Minshew shouldn’t come to that anyway though. The 28-year-old Minshew has already proven to be a serviceable NFL quarterback and is only now entering his traditional prime.

Good luck finding a single statistic that indicates O’Connell was better than Minshew last season, and the gap only grows the deeper as anyone dives down the all-encompassing and advanced-statistical numbers that inform more decisions in the NFL these days.

It’s not impossible but expecting the 25-year-old O’Connell to catch Minshew in a single offseason sounds like a stretch — especially when the new system doesn’t look to be in his favor on the surface.

New offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has stayed mostly tight-lipped about his preferred quarterback profile, but one thing he’s admitted to prioritizing is “escapability” and making plays outside of the pocket.   

Minshew is far more capable of that than O’Connell.

O’Connell was an ideal fit in former coach Josh McDaniels’ more rigid offense, so much so that former general manager Dave Ziegler traded up to take him in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft.  

McDaniels didn’t value mobility out of his quarterbacks and loved the thought of O’Connell standing tall and using his accuracy to zip in passes in a manner he predetermined.

That’s now how the Raiders’ new regime thinks about offense. And even if Pierce has a special fondness for the way O’Connell improved during a 3-1 run to end last regular season, he’s going to do everything to put Getsy in a position to succeed.     

And it’s going to take a lot more than a few non-contact practices in June for O’Connell to demonstrate he’s a better option in the new offense than Minshew.

“I think as any real competitor, you don't want them to be worse, you want yourself to be better,” Minshew said of the quarterback competition. “So, the better he is, if I'm beating him out, that means I'm just raising it that much more. So, that's kind of how I've always viewed it, like if he's pushing me and he's completing every pass, I’ve got to figure out a way to do better.”

Minshew will get better as he settles in with his fourth NFL team, and as the scheme solidifies with the pads coming on during training camp.

The betting odds are right for the moment. Minshew is the likelier Week 1 starter for the Raiders despite O’Connell getting off to a faster start.  

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or