Key Highlights:

• Industry Secrets: In Moto 1, KTM's Sexton and Vialle dominated Segments 1, 3, and 5, while Yamaha's Cooper and Deegan excelled in Segment 4 during Moto 2. This demonstrates that KTM and Yamaha have optimized their setups and line choices to suit their riders in these specific track areas.
  
  
• Chasing Glory: Over his last five motos, Sexton has exhibited sheer dominance. This week, he was on average a second per lap faster than any other rider in both motos, particularly excelling in the Sand Whoops, where he was consistently half a second quicker.
  
  
• Nature's Challenge: Rain and lightning wreaked havoc on the 250 class, but Kitchen adapted well. Haiden Deegan, however, truly thrived, passing most of the pack after a first corner pile-up and achieving an impressive LITPro consistency score of 92.5 while doing so.
  
  
• Stepping Up: With Jett Lawrence out for the season, several riders see an opportunity to reach the podium. Justin Cooper rose to the occasion this week, even closely challenging Hunter Lawrence late in Moto 2, with their average lap times differing by just 0.3 seconds.
  
  
• Cooking Up Success: Levi Kitchen found his stride this weekend, finding his Supercross speed. He dominated both motos, setting the fastest lap in Moto 1 and leading lap times in Moto 2 by nearly one second per lap.

The Spring Creek National in Millville, MN, is one of the most historic tracks on the circuit. Owned by the Martin family, this track has been hosting professional racing for over 40 years. Known for its iconic sand whoops and incredibly steep terrain, it never fails to deliver excitement. From the famous mud race in 2006 when Carmichael lapped the entire field to the 'Chadapult' in 2011, Spring Creek is a favorite for many.

450 Analysis:

Heading into Spring Creek with a ton of momentum, Chase Sexton aimed to build on his current three moto win streak, extend his points lead, and display his dominance over the 450 field. Even with some less than ideal starts, Sexton managed to convincingly take both motos. While he's undoubtedly one of the fastest riders right now, what really sets him apart is his fitness and ability to stay consistent deep into the race.

Hunter Lawrence, the only real threat to Sexton's title chances, looked absolutely exhausted following Moto 2. His consistency scores and lap times, along with his own admission, confirmed this. With his brother Jett out, new podium contenders like Anderson, Cooper, and Plessinger have stepped up, but none have managed to spoil Sexton's show. Sexton's win streak now stands at two nationals and five motos.

 

Track Breakdown:

 

It didn’t matter if it was Moto 1 or 2, Chase Sexton was a beast through the front half of the track, especially in the Sand Whoops. In Moto 1, he averaged half a second faster than any other rider, notably tripling his way through part of the section. Even though others caught on to his line in Moto 2, Sexton still averaged a tenth of a second faster just in this section. His dominance extended up Mount Martin, though he clearly struggled coming back down the steep descent all day.

As the track maps above show, Sexton was the only rider to be the fastest in a section for both motos. Not even Hunter Lawrence, who narrowly managed to secure second place in Moto 2, could claim to be the fastest on average in any section in Moto 2. Impressively, in the first three sections where Sexton was most dominant, he averaged nearly identical times in both motos, as displayed in the tables below.

Moto 1: 

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	C. Sexton	23.617	22.921	85.9
2	C. Sexton	23.857	22.898	82.2
3	C. Sexton	43.695	42.650	87.7
4	H. Lawrence	16.897	16.318	80.2
5	C. Sexton	20.769	20.245	89.1

 Moto 2:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	C. Sexton	23.726	23.118	85.9
2	C. Sexton	23.232	22.291	82.2
3	C. Sexton	43.710	42.424	87.7
4	J. Cooper	17.292	16.489	67.6
5	J. Anderson	21.152	20.394	84.8

 

 

Lap Time Breakdown:

 

The histogram above shows lap times from both motos, highlighting that the fastest times of the day (outside of qualifying) came in Moto 2. Chase Sexton clocked an impressive 2:06.655. Jason Anderson topped qualifying earlier in the day with a 2:06.566 on a better track. Despite forecasted rain showers attempting to change conditions, the downpour only came in the final laps of Moto 2, leaving the 450 class with ideal conditions for both motos.

• The 450 class has shown impressive consistency when the track conditions don’t change much between motos. The average lap time in Moto 1 was 2:19.49, and in Moto 2, it was 2:19.82. Surprisingly, consistency improved in Moto 2 despite most riders commenting on the grueling heat and humidity. LITPro 10-Lap Consistency scores were, on average, 5 points higher in Moto 2.
  
  
• By taking the best segment time of any rider in either moto, we get the ideal lap time, Lap 99, for the track, which was 2:04.076.
  
  
• Each moto had 16 timed laps, and Sexton dominated both. He had the fastest lap 10 out of 16 times in Moto 1 and 11 out of 16 times in Moto 2. Only Hunter Lawrence and Justin Cooper managed to get more than one fastest lap time in a moto, with Hunter having 5 in Moto 1 and Cooper having 3 in Moto 2.

450 Moto 1 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
C. Sexton	M1	2:09.209	2:07.154	2:05.35	94.5
H. Lawrence	M1	2:10.039	2:07.107	2:06.54	90.7
A. Plessinger	M1	2:11.063	2:07.394	2:06.47	83.6
J. Anderson	M1	2:11.756	2:08.089	2:06.59	91.1
J. Cooper	M1	2:12.325	2:09.565	2:08.62	90.7

450 Moto 2 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
C. Sexton	M2	2:09.112	2:06.655	2:05.40	93.2
H. Lawrence	M2	2:10.234	2:07.112	2:06.58	91.0
J. Cooper	M2	2:10.537	2:07.314	2:06.31	86.2
J. Anderson	M2	2:10.958	2:07.828	2:07.02	87.5
A. Plessinger	M2	2:13.068	2:07.595	2:06.10	88.4

 

Overall Performance:

• Chase Sexton's fitness is on another level right now, and no other rider is even close. In both motos, Sexton averaged around one second per lap faster than anyone else. While he didn’t set the fastest lap time in Moto 1, his ability to maintain a strong pace throughout the entire moto gives him a clear advantage.
• In Moto 2, Justin Cooper managed to regroup and improve his average lap time from Moto 1 by 1.5 seconds. Only Sexton and Cooper had faster average lap times in Moto 2 compared to Moto 1.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

• The consistency scores highlight Sexton's superior fitness. In Moto 1, he had a 10-Lap Consistency score of 94.5, and in Moto 2, it was 93.2. Sexton was not only the fastest rider but also the most consistent.
• Hunter Lawrence also continues to be incredibly consistent and remains the most consistent rider this season. Despite slowing down late in the race, he managed to score above 90 in both motos, reminding Sexton that he will always be there to contend if Chase falters.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

• Even though Sexton didn’t set the fastest lap time in Moto 1, his lines were clearly the quickest. His Lap 99 time for the moto was the only 2:05. He reinforced this in Moto 2, once again achieving the only 2:05. Furthermore, Sexton's Lap 99 times were over a second faster.
• Aaron Plessinger seemed to succumb to fatigue in Moto 2. Despite an early tip-over, Plessinger quickly got back on track and set the secondend fastest Lap 99 time but soon fell far off the pace.

Lap Time Distribution for Top 10 

 

The box-and-whisker plot above shows the top 10 riders, sorted by their fastest lap time in both motos. Generally, the smaller the box, the more consistent the rider. Here, we can clearly see Plessinger's struggles in Moto 2. Interestingly, many top riders had a faster lap in Moto 2, but their average pace was slightly slower. Curiously, Malcom Stewart was significantly slower in Moto 2 compared to Moto 1, increasing his average lap time by 1.5 seconds. After all, this is his first full season of racing outdoors in over a decade. Perhaps, his fitness is starting to take a hit. 

Power Rankings:

Putting everything together, rankings for each rider can be established. The table below showcases the key metrics used to determine the weekend's top riders and is crucial for shaping weekly power rankings.

  *Coloring from red-to-green only highlights disparity between top 10 and not representative of the entire field. All of these riders are near the top compared to the rest of the riders. 

Chase Sexton remained nearly flawless this weekend. He had 99.4 (out of 100) possible points. He was followed by Hunter (96.3) and Cooper (89.3). An updated 4 week power ranking is below. Each subsequent race has a 10% decay rate.

Cumulative Power Rankings:

Rank	Rider	Power Ranking	Change
1	Chase Sexton	96.9	NC
2	Hunter Lawrence	94.2	NC
3	Aaron Plessinger	86.9	+1
4	Justin Cooper	86.9	-1
5	Jason Anderson	82.2	NC
6	Dylan Ferrandis	78.7	NC
7	Malcom Stewart	71.3	NC
8	Christian Craig	65.7	NC
9	Harri Kullas	64.4	NR
10	Phill Nicoletti	64.4	NR

 

250 Analysis:

A wild turn of events led to two completely different races for the 250 motos. With the 450s racing first to get live airtime, the 250s suffered. Although the class enjoyed perfect track conditions in Moto 1, the downpour and lightning delay after 450 Moto 2 caused chaos for the 250s.

In Moto 1, Deegan jumped to an early lead, but a small mistake and some arm pump dropped him back to fourth. He regrouped and took third, following Vialle and Kitchen. Kitchen secured his first moto victory of the season in Moto 1.

The downpour spelled disaster for everyone except Levi Kitchen, who cooked up a masterful performance in Moto 2. Dominating the front half of the track, Levi caught up to Casey Cochran to take his second moto victory of the season and his first-ever 250 overall win. Many top contenders struggled. Hymas, Deegan, Shimoda, and Masterpool all crashed in the first corner. This racing incident sent Hymas to the medical tent, Shimoda to the pits several times eventually pulling out of the race, Masterpool slow to get up, and Deegan ended up with a twisted exhaust. Impressively, Deegan regrouped to take 4th in Moto 2, and Masterpool quietly rode back to 10th. Vialle, looking to capitalize, crashed in the sand whoops, missing his chance to turn the situation to his advantage.

 

 

The track maps above lead to an interesting observation. In 450 Moto 1, Chase Sexton had the fastest average times in Segments 1, 2, 3, and 5. His teammate also clocked the fastest times in Segments 1, 3, and 5. In 450 Moto 2, Justin Cooper recorded the fastest time in Segment 4, while his teammate Haiden Deegan did the same, even while battling through the pack. It's well known that Sexton and Kitchen are close friends, and both dominated the Sand Whoops in both motos.

This shows how much teams and riders discuss about track conditions, line choices, and bike settings. KTM and Yamaha clearly figured out the best bike settings for specific areas of the track while Kitchen closely watched Sexton through the sand.

Moving forward, it's tough to compare times between Moto 1 and Moto 2. Although the track wasn’t particularly muddy after the storm, it was slick and slimy at first, before developing deep and rough ruts. As a result, times were considerably slower in all segments for the second moto.

Moto 1:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	T. Vialle	23.832	22.983	79.6
2	L. Kitchen	24.104	23.210	79.0
3	T. Vialle	44.415	43.891	35.4
4	L. Kitchen	17.623	17.048	76.5
5	T. Vialle	21.286	20.870	80.5

 Moto 2:

SEG	Rider	Average Time	Fastest Time	Consistency Score
1	L. Kitchen	26.256	25.695	88.3
2	L. Kitchen	25.535	24.658	79.0
3	L. Kitchen	49.258	47.622	63.4
4	H. Deegan	18.182	17.754	82.0
5	C. Cochran	22.721	21.921	75.4

Lap Time Breakdown:

Clearly, the weather conditions preceding Moto 2 affected the racing. Not only were average lap times 17 seconds slower compared to Moto 1, 10-Lap consistency scores dropped by over 3 points as well. 

250 Moto 1 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
T. Vialle	M1	2:12.074	2:10.053	2:08.94	85.1
L. Kitchen	M1	2:12.113	2:08.989	2:08.41	79.7
H. Deegan	M1	2:12.546	2:09.154	2:08.98	80.5
J. Shimoda	M1	2:12.571	2:09.893	2:09.84	92.0
C. Hymas	M1	2:14.223	2:11.136	2:09.16	87.2

250 Moto 2 Top 5 Average Lap Times 

RIDER	MOTO	Average Time	Fastest Time	LAP 99	Consistency
L. Kitchen	M2	2:22.375	2:18.550	2:17.95	90.7
H. Deegan	M2	2:23.270	2:19.286	2:18.37	92.5
M. Anstie	M2	2:24.615	2:23.007	2:21.16	89.2
C. Cochran	M2	2:24.733	2:21.043	2:19.33	86.1
R. DiFrancesco	M2	2:25.939	2:23.108	2:22.09	89.7

Overall Performance:

• Despite coming up short in Moto 1, Tom Vialle managed to have the fastest average lap time over Kitchen and the rest of the 250s, even though his fastest lap was a second slower than Kitchen's.
• Kitchen was on a mission this week, relishing the muddy conditions and cruising a second per lap quicker than Deegan, who had to battle through the pack.

LITPro 10-Lap Consistency Scores:

• In Moto 2, Deegan impressively passed most of the pack to finish fourth, achieving a 92.5 consistency score. This was a sharp contrast to his Moto 1 score of 80.5, where he clearly struggled following his tip over.
• Although not one of the fastest riders this weekend, Julien Beaumer dominated in consistency across both motos. His overall consistency score was 92.4, making him the most consistent 250 rider and the only one to score above 90 in both motos.

Lap 99 Analysis:

*Lap 99 takes each riders' best segment time regardless of lap and combines them as a theoretical best lap time.

• The 250 class is highly competitive. Under ideal track conditions, the top 5 Lap 99 times were separated by only 0.22 seconds. Each rider pushed their machine to the limit, and only the most consistent found themselves at the front of the race.
• Casey Cochran has been quietly improving each weekend, but the mud brought out the best in the young rookie. His Lap 99 time was the third fastest, behind top riders like Deegan and Kitchen.

Lap Time Distribution for Top 10

Power Rankings:

*Coloring from red-to-green only highlights disparity between top 10 and not representative of the entire field. All of these riders are near the top compared to the rest of the riders. 

In his first career overall victory, Levi Kitchen scored 98.1 points, followed by Deegan (90.9) and Cochran (86.4).