There was a lot of conversation during the pandemic about how school districts’ scramble to deliver content fully virtually could fundamentally change K-12 learning.
But did that become a reality?
While most public school educators were eager to return to in-person classrooms, they also found benefits in online instruction — in part because some students excelled in more independent, virtual learning environments and some districts were able to fill gaps in their course offerings or supports.
Many school districts initially promised to keep fully-virtual programs going for families who wanted that option even after buildings reopened for in-person learning.
Now, with districts having put COVID-era practices well behind them, an important question for companies working across the K-12 marketplace is what demand remains for virtual programs in school systems. And, where those online programs remain in place, what kind of entities manage them — which would affect how vendors work with them.
EdWeek Market Brief asked 163 district and 95 school leaders about the appetite among students for fully-virtual programs in a nationally representative survey, conducted by the EdWeek Research Center in March and April.
For education companies trying to adjust to changes in K-12 funding streams — particularly the drying up of federal stimulus aid — virtual programs represent an area of opportunity beyond typical brick-and-mortar school systems.
They may also give companies an opportunity to double-down on established relationships with school systems or private management companies overseeing the programs.
Around half of the district and school leaders surveyed, 53 percent, say interest among students in full-time virtual programs has fallen compared to two years ago. Of those respondents, most say interest is “much lower.”
Nearly a quarter, 24 percent, say student interest in full-time online programs has remained about the same. Just 17 percent say interest has increased.
What’s more, the administrators surveyed expect this decline in demand for virtual schools to continue over the next two years — an important consideration for vendors that are already bracing for a tighter market as federal stimulus dollars wind to a close.
More than a third of educators, 37 percent, expect interest to continue to drop, EdWeek Market Brief’s survey found. Another 37 percent expect it to stabilize.
About a quarter, 26 percent, expect to see an increase in interest in full-time online education.
These changes in attitudes likely reflect a shift from families seeking virtual options as a crisis response to settling on longer-term educational options, said John Watson, founder of the Evergreen Education Group, a digital learning consulting firm for districts and companies.
“If the shift from two years ago to now is driven in part by the receding pandemic-related issues, then it’s reasonable to think that as the pandemic gets further behind us, that interest will continue to diminish as well,” he said.
But even if the popularity of fully online programs as a replacement for traditional schooling has grown compared to before the pandemic, it’s difficult to capture, Watson said.
That’s because it continues to represent a very small percentage of the total K-12 population, he said.
Interest in virtual also varies depending on where students are in the country, EdWeek Market Brief’s survey found.
When broken down by geographical area, survey answers show a statistically significant difference in how K-12 administrators in Western states think interest will evolve.
Forty percent of respondents in the West say they expect students’ interest in full-time virtual to be higher in two years, compared to 26 percent of those in the South, a quarter of those in the Midwest and just 6 percent in the Northeast.
The majority of respondents in the Northeast expect student interest to stagnate (61 percent) or decrease (33 percent).
It depends to what extent states and districts invested in fully virtual learning, what kinds of policies were passed, and what kind of interest that fostered in communities, among other factors, Watson pointed out.
“Geographic differences are real, and they are important,” he said. “If you ran the same survey in Florida or other states, numbers would be off the charts... It really varies state by state.”
Secondary Students Dominate
The students who remain enrolled in full-time online programs today are largely at the secondary level.
When asked what student groups are enrolled, K-12 officials’ top answers are:
- High school students (74 percent)
- Students who live in the district (66 percent)
- Students who cannot attend school in-person due to health challenges (54 percent)
- Middle school students (51 percent)
A smaller number, 39 percent, say elementary school students are enrolled.
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And few K-12 officials say their district offers virtual programs to students living outside their district but in the same state (19 percent), adjudicated students (11 percent), or adult education students (2 percent).
Districts with lower poverty are statistically more likely to offer fully-online options to students outside of their district. Twenty-nine percent of school and district administrators from relatively affluent districts say they offer fully virtual programs to students from outside their systems, compared to 12 percent of those in systems with higher poverty.
That tracks with what Benjamin Cottingham, researcher and associate director of strategic partnerships for Policy Analysis for California Education (PACE), has seen among districts in his state.
If a resource-strapped district has to choose between training teachers on how to provide high-quality, full-time virtual learning or improving their in-person instructional skills, for example, they’re going to choose the latter, he said. (Cottingham co-authored a report on online instruction in 2020.)
“There are just higher-priority things for districts,” Cottingham said.
Interest In Outsourcing?
One might think that many districts would be interested in turning over management of their full-time online programs to an outside vendor.
However, most K-12 officials say their districts have kept management of their fully virtual schools in-house, the survey finds.
When asked to describe the management and structure of their full-time remote options and programs, the largest group of respondents say their district currently manages its own.
And 16 percent say their district offered a district-managed program during the pandemic, but have since stopped.
By comparison, only 10 percent of K-12 officials say their district has a vendor managing its entire virtual program. And 3 percent say they offered a vendor-managed option during the pandemic, but have since stopped.
Fourteen percent of respondents have both, with offerings managed by vendors and the district themselves.
Fifteen percent say their district has never offered any remote options, and are not in the process of creating any.
For many districts, choosing not to have an outside manager of its virtual offerings essentially means getting rid of the option entirely, Cottingham said.
There’s a “lack of understanding on how to run a virtual school that’s high quality,” he said. “A lot of districts don’t have that internally. So if the demand is low, they’re gonna shutter it instead of trying to develop something that they could utilize those resources for other higher priority areas.”
In reality, Watson said he is seeing more school districts move away from fully virtual programs to offer students a hybrid experience.
That’s where he suggests education companies in the field focus their energy moving forward.
“The growth opportunity is in blended and hybrid,” he said. “Any time you’re seeing schools and programs releasing students from time and space constraints, those schools are almost certainly using hybrid.”
Takeaways
The majority of school district administrators say interest in full-time virtual schooling has dropped over the last two years, and most expect it to either stabilize or continuing falling over the next two.
However, there’s still some strong interest in entirely online programming — especially in Western states — with around a quarter of districts expecting to see an increase in interest.
Companies that offer academic resources that can be used in both in-person and digital environments should look closely at whether the districts they are targeting manage or offer these programs. It’s an add-on they can offer in a contract.
