The North Atlantic spring-bloom system—Where the changing climate meets the winter dark - Sundby, Svein; Drinkwater, Kenneth F.; Kjesbu, Olav S. (Frontiers in Marine Science, 2016)
The North Atlantic with its spring-bloom ecosystem has its particular responses to climate change, many of them different from the other parts of the world’s oceans. The system is strongly influenced by anthropogenic climate change as well as to strong decadal to multidecadal natural climate variability. In particular, the northernmost part of the system and the Arctic is exposed to higher increase in temperature than any other ocean region. The most pronounced examples of poleward migration of marine species are found in the North Atlantic, and comprise the recent warming phase after the 1970s. The latitudinal asymmetric position of the Arctic Front and its nature of change result in a considerably larger migration distance and migration speed of species in the Northeast Atlantic part of the system. However, we here hypothesize that there is a limit to the future extent of poleward migration of species constrained by the latitudinal region adjacent the Polar Circle. We define this region the critical latitudes. This is because the seasonal light cycle at high latitudes sets particular demands on the life cycle of planktivore species. Presently, boreal planktivore species at high latitudes deposit lipids during the short spring bloom period and overwinter when phytoplankton production is insufficient for feeding. Unless invading temperate species from farther south are able to adapt by developing a similar life cycle future poleward migration of such species will be unlikely.
Keywords: future climate change impacts,Multidecadal climate variability,seasonal light cycle,boreal species,Temperate species,Lipid accumulation,climate-induced migration,critical latitudes,overwintering

Trophodynamic effects of climate change-induced alterations to primary production along the western Antarctic Peninsula - Suprenand, Paul Mark; Ainsworth, Cameron H. (Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2017)
Under climate change, alterations in primary production and concomitant changes in community dynamics are expected in many marine ecosystems. We used an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) marine ecosystem model of the western Antarctic Peninsula to simulate effects on the food web based on proposed changes in the primary production regime expected as a result of climate change. Scenarios for trophic modeling are based on published results from coupled high-resolution regional ocean sea-ice and ice-shelf models, which consider alterations in water circulation from westerly wind intensification, increases in circumpolar deep water upwelling, iron upwelling, and decreases in sea-ice extent. Modeling scenarios included 6, 15, and 41% increases in phytoplankton production with equivalent percentage decreases in ice algal production, and 1 scenario with 15% increase for phytoplankton with no change for ice algae. These scenarios were achieved through linear forcing functions within the EwE software. We framed ecosystem changes in terms of biomass, species diversity, mean trophic level, trophodynamics, and network metrics. Simulations revealed that in each scenario, mean trophic level increased, species diversity generally decreased, and energetic pathways were reorganized. Modeled changes in the planktonic invertebrate assemblage include changes in 2 key competitors, krill and salps. For example, model results predict declines in krill biomass with concomitant increases in salp biomass. In all scenarios that assumed a negative change in ice-algae production rates due to sea-ice habitat loss, whale, seal, and penguin populations were negatively affected. Changes in ecosystem structure in this sensitive region may serve as an indicator of changes expected in the Southern Ocean.
10.3354/meps12100

Integrating climate change into scenario planning - Sussman, Aaron; Rasmussen, Benjamin; Siddiqui, Chowdhury (Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2016)
The Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project integrated climate change analysis into a land use and transportation scenario planning process in the Albuquerque Metropolitan Planning Area. In addition to traditional transportation and accessibility indicators, the Mid-Region Council of Governments and federal and local project partners used spatial analysis to test the benefits of a preferred scenario against climate change–related performance measures. The project found that in central New Mexico, emphasizing growth in priority development areas, such as activity centers and transit nodes, not only reduced vehicle miles traveled and greenhouse gas emissions but also proved to be more sustainable by attracting development to desired locations and reducing the amount of growth in areas subject to the risk of climate change impacts such as wildfires and flooding.

Climate change adaptation cost in the US: What do we know? - Sussman, Fran; Krishnan, Nisha; Maher, Kathryn; Miller, Rawlings; Mack, Charlotte; Stewart, Paul; Shouse, Kate; Perkins, Bill (Climate Policy, 2014)

2016 Progress Report - Sustain Louisville (Office of Sustainability, 2017)

SASB Conceptual Framework - Sustainable Accounting Standards Board (SASB) (2017)
Keywords: added by ERG

Natural variability and anthropogenic change in equatorial Pacific surface ocean pCO2 and pH - Sutton, Adrienne J.; Feely, Richard A.; Sabine, Christopher L.; McPhaden, Michael J.; Takahashi, Taro; Chavez, Francisco P.; Friederich, Gernot E.; Mathis, Jeremy T. (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2014)
Keywords: ENSO El Niño climate change CO2 ocean acidification 0428 Carbon cycling 4231 Equatorial oceanography 4215 Climate and interannual variability 4522 ENSO

Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside preindustrial bounds - Sutton, A. J.; Sabine, C. L.; Feely, R. A.; Cai, W. J.; Cronin, M. F.; McPhaden, M. J.; Morell, J. M.; Newton, J. A.; Noh, J. H.; Ólafsdóttir, S. R.; Salisbury, J. E.; Send, U.; et al. (Biogeosciences, 2016)

An El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Based Precipitation Climatology for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) Using the PERSIANN Climate Data Record (CDR) - Sutton, Jessica; Luchetti, Nicholas; Wright, Ethan; Kruk, Michael C.; Marra, John J. (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2015)

Leveraging carbon services of coastal ecosystems for habitat protection and restoration - Sutton-Grier, Ariana E.; Moore, Amber (Coastal Management, 2016)

Future of our coasts: The potential for natural and hybrid infrastructure to enhance the resilience of our coastal communities, economies and ecosystems - Sutton-Grier, Ariana E.; Wowk, Kateryna; Bamford, Holly (Environmental Science & Policy, 2015)
Keywords: Ecosystem services Storm protection Coastal flooding Storm surge Community resilience

CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America - Swain, Sharmistha; Hayhoe, Katharine (Climate Dynamics, 2015)
Climate change is expected to alter the mean and variability of future spring and summer drought and wet conditions during the twenty-first century across North America, as characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, statistically significant increases are projected in mean spring SPI over the northern part of the continent, and drier conditions across the southwest. Dry conditions in summer also increase, particularly throughout the central Great Plains. By end of century, greater changes are projected under a higher radiative forcing scenario (RCP 8.5) as compared to moderate (RCP 6.0) and lower (RCP 4.5). Analysis of projected changes standardized to a range of global warming thresholds from +1 to +4 °C reveals a consistent spatial pattern of wetter conditions in the northern and drier conditions in the southwestern part of the continent in spring that intensifies under increased warming, suggesting that the magnitude of projected changes in wetness and drought may scale with global temperature. For many regions, SPI interannual variability is also projected to increase (even for regions that are projected to become drier), indicating that climate may become more extreme under greater warming, with increased frequency of both extreme dry and wet seasons. Quantifying the direction and magnitude of projected future trends from global warming is key to informing strategies to mitigate human influence on climate and help natural and managed resources adapt.

Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity - Swann, Abigail L. S.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Randerson, James T. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.

Environmental limits of tall shrubs in Alaska’s Arctic national parks - Swanson, David K. (PLOS ONE, 2015)
We sampled shrub canopy volume (height times area) and environmental factors (soil wetness, soil depth of thaw, soil pH, mean July air temperature, and typical date of spring snow loss) on 471 plots across five National Park Service units in northern Alaska. Our goal was to determine the environments where tall shrubs thrive and use this information to predict the location of future shrub expansion. The study area covers over 80,000 km2 and has mostly tundra vegetation. Large canopy volumes were uncommon, with volumes over 0.5 m3/m2 present on just 8% of plots. Shrub canopy volumes were highest where mean July temperatures were above 10.5°C and on weakly acid to neutral soils (pH of 6 to 7) with deep summer thaw (>80 cm) and good drainage. On many sites, flooding helped maintain favorable soil conditions for shrub growth. Canopy volumes were highest where the typical snow loss date was near 20 May; these represent sites that are neither strongly wind-scoured in the winter nor late to melt from deep snowdrifts. Individual species varied widely in the canopy volumes they attained and their response to the environmental factors. Betula sp. shrubs were the most common and quite tolerant of soil acidity, cold July temperatures, and shallow thaw depths, but they did not form high-volume canopies under these conditions. Alnus viridis formed the largest canopies and was tolerant of soil acidity down to about pH 5, but required more summer warmth (over 12°C) than the other species. The Salix species varied widely from S. pulchra, tolerant of wet and moderately acid soils, to S. alaxensis, requiring well-drained soils with near neutral pH. Nearly half of the land area in ARCN has mean July temperatures of 10.5 to 12.5°C, where 2°C of warming would bring temperatures into the range needed for all of the potential tall shrub species to form large canopies. However, limitations in the other environmental factors would probably prevent the formation of large shrub canopies on at least half of the land area with newly favorable temperatures after 2°C of warming.

The forgotten stage of forest succession: Early-successional ecosystems on forest sites - Swanson, Mark E.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Beschta, Robert L.; Crisafulli, Charles M.; DellaSala, Dominick A.; Hutto, Richard L.; Lindenmayer, David B.; Swanson, Frederick J. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2011)

Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change - Swanston, Chris; Brandt, Leslie A.; Janowiak, Maria K.; Handler, Stephen D.; Butler-Leopold, Patricia; Iverson, Louis; Thompson III, Frank R.; Ontl, Todd A.; Shannon, P. Danielle (Climatic Change, 2018)
Forests of the Midwest and Northeast significantly define the character, culture, and economy of this large region but face an uncertain future as the climate continues to change. Forests vary widely across the region, and vulnerabilities are strongly influenced by regional differences in climate impacts and adaptive capacity. Not all forests are vulnerable; longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures will increase suitable habitat and biomass for many temperate species. Upland systems dominated by oak species generally have low vulnerability due to greater tolerance of hot and dry conditions, and some oak, hickory, and pine species are expected to become more competitive under hotter and physiologically drier conditions. However, changes in precipitation patterns, disturbance regimes, soil moisture, pest and disease outbreaks, and nonnative invasive species are expected to contribute forest vulnerability across the region. Northern, boreal, and montane forests have the greatest assessed vulnerability as many of their dominant tree species are projected to decline under warmer conditions. Coastal forests have high vulnerability, as sea level rise along the Atlantic coast increases damage from inundation, greater coastal erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion. Considering these potential forest vulnerabilities and opportunities is a critical step in making climate-informed decisions in long-term conservation planning.

Forest Adaptation Resources: Climate Change Tools and Approaches for Land Managers. General Technical Report NRS-87 - Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 2012)

Forest Adaptation Resources: Climate Change Tools and Approaches for Land Managers, 2nd ed - Swanston, Chris; Janowiak, Maria; Brandt, Leslie; Butler, Patricia; Handler, Stephen D.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Derby Lewis, Abigail; Hall, Kimbery; Fahey, Robert T.; Scott, Lydia; Kerber, Angela; Miesbauer, Jason W.; et al. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 2016)

Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in Northern Wisconsin - Swanston, Chris; Janowiak, Maria; Iverson, Louis; Parker, Linda; Mladenoff, David; Brandt, Leslie; Butler, Patricia; St. Pierre, Matt; Prasad, Anantha; Matthews, Stephen; Peters, Matthew; Higgins, Dale; et al. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 2011)

Quantifying forest carbon dynamics as a function of tree species composition and management under projected climate - Swanteson-Franz, Rachel J.; Krofcheck, Daniel J.; Hurteau, Matthew D. (Ecosphere, 2018)
Uncertainty remains about whether current rates of forest carbon uptake will be maintained with on-going climate change and increasing rates of disturbance. The potential exists for climate and disturbance to exceed the physiological tolerances of certain tree species and push forest ecosystems to a point where they become C sources. Thus, a diversity of tree species with a range of physiological tolerances could provide adaptive capacity and potentially sustain a C sink despite adverse abiotic influences. The fire-prone pine forests of the southeastern USA have been impacted by a combination of land use and fire exclusion, which has altered the demographics and composition of these historically diverse forests. We sought to quantify how prescribed fire and planting of climate-resilient tree species would alter forest carbon dynamics under projected climate change at Fort Benning, Georgia. This landscape is comprised of a diversity of forest types with a range of land-use histories and is heavily managed to meet military training objectives and federally listed species habitat requirements. We used a simulation approach to determine species-specific growth responses to projected climate and develop two management scenarios: no-management and prescribed fire coupled with planting. We ran landscape simulations of these two management scenarios under climate projections from ten global climate models to quantify how active management would alter forest carbon dynamics as a function of changing climate and wildfire. We found that the prescribed fire and plant scenario increased total ecosystem carbon (TEC) over our no-management scenario by over 20 Mg C/m2 by late century. Despite the differences in TEC, differences in net ecosystem exchange were not realized over the entire simulation. The primary drivers of TEC differences were sustained carbon uptake and lower carbon loss to wildfire in the prescribed fire and plant scenario. Our results demonstrate that under projected climate, managing to reduce the impacts of fire and planting climate-adapted species can increase the mitigation potential of these forests.

Patterns and Projections of High Tide Flooding Along the U.S. Coastline Using a Common Impact Threshold - Sweet, William; Dusek, Greg; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Marra, John J. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, 2018)

Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency Changes Around the United States - Sweet, William; Park, Joseph; Marra, John; Zervas, Chris; Gill, Stephen (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, 2014)

Sea level rise - Sweet, W.V.; Horton, R.; Kopp, R.E.; LeGrande, A.N.; Romanou, A. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States - Sweet, W.V.; Kopp, R.E.; Weaver, C.P.; Obeysekera, J.; Horton, R.M.; Thieler, E.R.; Zervas, C. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, 2017)

2015 State of U.S. Nuisance Tidal Flooding. Supplement to State of the Climate: National Overview for May 2016 - Sweet, William V.; Marra, John J. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, 2016)

2016 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding and a 2017 Outlook. Supplement to State of the Climate: National Overview for June 2017 - Sweet, William V.; Marra, John J.; Gregory Dusek (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017)

From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise - Sweet, William V.; Park, Joseph (Earth’s Future, 2014)
Keywords: sea level rise coastal inundation nuisance flooding 1641 Sea level change 1630 Impacts of global change

New ways to measure waves and their effects at NOAA tide gauges: A Hawaiian-network perspective - Sweet, William V.; Park, Joseph; Gill, Stephen; Marra, John (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: tide gauge water levels waves 4594 Instruments and techniques 4556 Sea level: variations and mean 4560 Surface waves and tides

Hurricane Sandy inundation probabilities of today and tomorrow [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”] - Sweet, W.V.; Zervas, C.; Gill, S.; Park, J. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2013)

Effects of high pCO2 on Tanner crab reproduction and early life history—Part I: Long-term exposure reduces hatching success and female calcification, and alters embryonic development - Swiney, Katherine M.; Long, William Christopher; Foy, Robert J. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2016)

Natural Catastrophes and Man-Made Disasters in 2012: A Year of Extreme Weather Events in the US - Swiss Re (Swiss Re, 2013)

Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains Through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative–Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops - Symstad, Amy; Miller, Brian; Fisichelli, Nicholas; Schuurman, Gregor; Koslow, Melinda; Ray, Andrea; Friedman, Jonathan; Rowland, Erika (USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, 2015)

Sinking deltas due to human activities - Syvitski, James P. M.; Kettner, Albert J.; Overeem, Irina; Hutton, Eric W. H.; Hannon, Mark T.; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Day, John; Vörösmarty, Charles; Saito, Yoshiki; Giosan, Liviu; Nicholls, Robert J. (Nature Geoscience, 2009)

Biodiversity in the urban landscape - Szlavecz, K; Warren, P.S.; Pickett, S.T.A. (The Human Population: Its Influence on Biological Diversity, 2011)
Keywords: urban urban ecosystem ecosystem services

Fisheries allocations for socioeconomic development: Lessons learned from the Western Alaska Community Development Quota (CDQ) program - Szymkowiak, Marysia; Himes-Cornell, Amber (Ocean & Coastal Management, 2018)

Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields - Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985–2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September−May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.

Correlations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological variables in the United States: Implications for the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change - Tai, Amos P. K.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Jacob, Daniel J. (Atmospheric Environment, 2010)
Keywords: PM Climate change Meteorology Multiple linear regression Stagnation

Impact of 2000–2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality inferred from a multi-model analysis of meteorological modes - Tai, A. P. K.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2012)

Climate change effects on the worst-case storm surge: A case study of Typhoon Haiyan - Takayabu, Izuru; Hibino, Kenshi; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Shiogama, Hideo; Mori, Nobuhito; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
Effects of climate change on the worst case scenario of a storm surge induced by a super typhoon in the present climate are investigated through the case study of Typhoon Haiyan. We present the results of our investigation on super-typhoon Haiyan by using a super high resolution (1 km grid) regional model that explicitly handles cloud microphysical processes. As the parent model, we adopted the operational weekly ensemble experiments (60 km grid) of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and compared experiments using sea surface temperatures and atmospheric environmental parameters from before the beginning of anthropogenic climate change (150 years ago) with those using observed values throughout the typhoon. We were able not only to represent the typhoon’s intensity but also to evaluate the influences of climate change on worst case storm surges in the Gulf of Leyte due to a typhoon with high robustness. In 15 of 16 ensemble experiments, the intensity of the simulated worst case storm in the actual conditions was stronger than that in a hypothetical natural condition without historical anthropogenic forcing during the past 150 years. The intensity of the typhoon is translated to a disaster metric by simulating the storm surge height by using a shallow-water long-wave model. The result indicates that the worst case scenario of a storm surge in the Gulf of Leyte may be worse by 20%, though changes in frequency of such events are not accounted for here.

Upper Mississippi River Basin Modeling Systems Part 4: Climate change impacts on flow and water quality - Takle, Eugene S.; Anderson, Chris; Jha, Manoj; Gassman, Philip W. (Coastal Hydrology and Processes, 2006)

US food security and climate change: Agricultural futures - Takle, Eugene S. Takle; Gustafson, David; Beachy, Roger; Nelson, Gerald C.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Palazzo, Amanda (Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2013)

Consumptive water use from electricity generation in the Southwest under alternative climate, technology, and policy futures - Talati, Shuchi; Zhai, Haibo; Kyle, G. Page; Morgan, M. Granger; Patel, Pralit; Liu, Lu (Environmental Science & Technology, 2016)

Hydrographic Atlas of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). Volume 2: Pacific Ocean - Talley, Lynne D. (International WOCE Project Office, 2007)

Hinterland transport chains: Determinant effects on chain choice - Talley, Wayne K.; Ng, ManWo (International Journal of Production Economics, 2017)
Keywords: Hinterland transport Seaport Dry port Inland port Intermodal Supply chain

Precipitation effects on motor vehicle crashes vary by space, time, and environmental conditions - Tamerius, J. D.; Zhou, X.; Mantilla, R.; Greenfield-Huitt, T. (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2016)
Numerous studies have shown that precipitation has a significant impact on motor vehicle crashes. Hourly weather radar data with a 4-km resolution and over 600 000 crashes from 2002 to 2012 in Iowa are used to assess the effects of precipitation on motor vehicle crashes. Using a matched pairs analysis, this study finds that the relative accident risk (RAR) across the state during the study period was 1.69 [1.66, 1.71]. However, RAR increased to as high as 3.7 [3.6, 4.0] and as low as 1.1 [1.0, 1.2] for frozen and liquid precipitation types, respectively. RAR also varied significantly by hour of the day, with RAR near 2 in the late afternoon and 1.3 during the early morning hours, suggesting an interaction effect between precipitation and traffic volume and/or density on crash risk. The study also shows that interstates and major highways tend to have higher RAR than smaller roads, and it was able to identify locations that are particularly sensitive to precipitation with regard to crashes. This study can be used to inform future studies on the effects of weather and climate change on crashes.
Keywords: Geographic location/entity,North America,Observational techniques and algorithms,Radars/Radar observations,Applications,Geographic information systems (GIS),Local effects,Societal impacts,Transportation meteorology

Trade and Climate Change. WTO-UNEP Report - Tamiotti, Ludivine; Teh, Robert; Kulaçoğlu, Vesile; Olhoff, Anne; Simmons, Benjamin; Abaza, Hussein (World Trade Organization Secretariat, 2009)
WTO ISBN: 978-92-870-3522-6

[web site] - Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council (Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, 2017)

Tampa Bay Water Hosts Florida Water and Climate Alliance Workshop - Tampa Bay Water (2014)

Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere - Tang, Qiuhong; Zhang, Xuejun; Francis, Jennifer A. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Annual Mean Growth Rate of CO2 at Mauna Loa. - Tans, P.; Keeling, R. (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 2017)

Novel wildlife in the Arctic: The influence of changing riparian ecosystems and shrub habitat expansion on snowshoe hares - Tape, Ken D.; Christie, Katie; Carroll, Geoff; O'Donnell, Jonathan A. (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Keywords: herbivores Lepus americanus moose riparian shrub expansion streamflow tundra warming

Range expansion of moose in Arctic Alaska linked to warming and increased shrub habitat - Tape, Ken D.; Gustine, David D.; Ruess, Roger W.; Adams, Layne G.; Clark, Jason A. (PLOS ONE, 2016)

The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic - Tape, K. E. N.; Sturm, Matthew; Racine, Charles (Global Change Biology, 2006)
Keywords: arctic climate change greening shrubs tundra

Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region - Tarnocai, C.; Canadell, J. G.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Kuhry, P.; Mazhitova, G.; Zimov, S. (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2009)
Keywords: carbon content carbon-climate feedback carbon pools climate change peatlands permafrost soils 0486 Soils/pedology 0702 Permafrost 0712 Cryosol 1621 Cryospheric change 9315 Arctic region

Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower generation and implications on electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and operation - Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Samuelsen, Scott (Energy, 2016)
Keywords: Hydropower Hydroelectricity Climate change Greenhouse gas emissions Electric grid

Evaluating options for balancing the water-electricity nexus in California: Part 1—Securing water availability - Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sobhani, Reza; Feldman, David; Jiang, Sunny; Samuelsen, Scott (Science of the Total Environment, 2014)
Keywords: Water-energy nexus Climate change Securing water resources Conservation Water reuse Desalination

Evaluating options for balancing the water–electricity nexus in California: Part 2—Greenhouse gas and renewable energy utilization impacts - Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sobhani, Reza; Feldman, David; Jiang, Sunny; Samuelsen, Scott (Science of the Total Environment, 2014)
Keywords: Water–energy nexus Climate change Renewable energy Greenhouse gas Securing water resources California

Implementing the Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures - Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (Financial Stability Board, 2016)

Report to the Governor and the Maryland General Assembly - Task Force to Study the Impact of Ocean Acidification on State Waters (The Task Force, 2015)

Effects of rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide on plants - Taub, Daniel R. (Nature Education Knowledge, 2010)

Epidemic cholera in Mali: High mortality and multiple routes of transmission in a famine area - Tauxe, Robert V.; Holmberg, Scott D.; Dodin, Andre; Wells, Joy V.; Blake, Paul A. (Epidemiology and Infection, 2009)
During the 1984 cholera epidemic in Mali, 1793 cases and 406 deaths were reported, a death-to-case ratio of 23%. In four affected villages, the mean clinical attack rate was 17·5 and 29% of affected persons died. In 66% of cases the illness began more than 48 h after the village outbreak began, when supplies from outside the village were potentially available. Deaths occurred because patients failed to seek care or received only limited rehydration therapy when they did. Case-control studies identified two routes of transmission: drinking water from one well in a village outside the drought area, and eating left-over millet gruel in a droughtaffected village. Drought-related scarcity of curdled milk may permit millet gruel to be a vehicle for cholera. Cholera mortality in the Sahel could be greatly reduced by rapid intervention in affected villages, wide distribution of effective rehydration materials, and educating the population to seek treatment quickly.

Performance and cost-based comparison of green and gray infrastructure to control combined sewer overflows - Tavakol-Davani, Hassan; Burian, Steven J.; Devkota, Jay; Apul, Defne (Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment, 2016)

How does climate change affect combined sewer overflow in a system benefiting from rainwater harvesting systems? - Tavakol-Davani, Hessam; Goharian, Erfan; Hansen, Carly H.; Tavakol-Davani, Hassan; Apul, Defne; Burian, Steven J. (Sustainable Cities and Society, 2016)
Keywords: Change factor Climate change Combined sewer overflow Hydrologic-hydraulic modeling Rainwater harvesting

Water stress projections for the northeastern and midwestern United States in 2060: Anthropogenic and ecological consequences - Tavernia, Brian G.; Nelson, Mark D.; Caldwell, Peter; Sun, Ge (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2013)
Keywords: fish climate variability/change surface water hydrology land-use/land-cover change planning water supply water use water stress GIS

Swedish birds are tracking temperature but not rainfall: Evidence from a decade of abundance changes - Tayleur, Catherine; Caplat, Paul; Massimino, Dario; Johnston, Alison; Jonzén, Niclas; Smith, Henrik G.; Lindström, Åke (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change climate tracking niche modelling range margins species distributions

Status and Trends of Land Change in the Great Plains of the United States—1973 to 2000 - Taylor, Janis L.; Acevedo, William; Auch, Roger F.; Drummond, Mark A. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2015)
ISBN: 978-1-4113-3934-7

An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design - Taylor, K.E.; Stouffer, R.J.; Meehl, G.A. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2012)

Creating better cities: How biodiversity and ecosystem functioning enhance urban residents’ wellbeing - Taylor, Lucy; Hochuli, Dieter F. (Urban Ecosystems, 2015)
Cities concentrate risks and the adverse effects of dense populations, such as outdoor air pollution, chronic disease and the impact of extreme weather events. Governments and planning bodies struggle to heed and apply the abundance of unintegrated research that links aspects of the urban environment with urban residents’ wellbeing. In order to promote human wellbeing in cities, a number of key features of the urban environment should be promoted. The medical science, urban ecology and urban design research already recognises the importance of some aspects, including providing walkable spaces, community space and greenspace. We argue that in practice, the provision of these three features is insufficient for human wellbeing. Emerging research demonstrates the importance of biodiversity and ecosystem functions to wellbeing. This paper outlines the concept of wellbeing and provides a of the three established features of urban environments that enhance residents’ lives: the provision of walkable, community and greenspace. We then outline the importance of two vital but often overlooked links in the discussion of how urban planning contributes to wellbeing: biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Until governments and policies recognise the importance of these two elements, urban design and management for wellbeing is at best simplistic. It is important for biodiversity and ecosystem function to be considered during the design decision process. Urban designers and ecologists should recognise that their work has the potential to contribute to human wellbeing by integrating biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in their research.
Keywords: urban urban ecosystem ecosystem services health

Enhanced weathering strategies for stabilizing climate and averting ocean acidification - Taylor, Lyla L.; Quirk, Joe; Thorley, Rachel M. S.; Kharecha, Pushker A.; Hansen, James; Ridgwell, Andy; Lomas, Mark R.; Banwart, Steve A.; Beerling, David J. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Vulnerability of Pacific Island Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Change - Taylor, Mary; McGregor, Andrew; Dawson, Brain (Pacific Community (SPC), 2016)

Future Caribbean climates in a world of rising temperatures: The 1.5 vs 2.0 dilemma - Taylor, Michael A.; Clarke, Leonardo A.; Centella, Abel; Bezanilla, Arnoldo; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Jones, Jhordanne J.; Campbell, Jayaka D.; Vichot, Alejandro; Charlery, John (Journal of Climate, 2018)
A 10-member ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is used to analyze the Caribbean’s future climate when mean global surface air temperatures are 1.5°, 2.0°, and 2.5°C above preindustrial (1861–1900) values. The global warming targets are attained by the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s respectively for RCP4.5. The Caribbean on average exhibits smaller mean surface air temperature increases than the globe, although there are parts of the region that are always warmer than the global warming targets. In comparison to the present (using a 1971–2000 baseline), the Caribbean domain is 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer at the 1.5°C target, 5%–10% wetter except for the northeast and southeast Caribbean, which are drier, and experiences increases in annual warm spells of more than 100 days. At the 2.0°C target, there is additional warming by 0.2°–1.0°C, a further extension of warm spells by up to 70 days, a shift to a predominantly drier region (5%–15% less than present day), and a greater occurrence of droughts. The climate patterns at 2.5°C indicate an intensification of the changes seen at 2.0°C. The shift in the rainfall pattern between 1.5°C (wet) and 2.0°C (dry) for parts of the domain has implications for regional adaptation pursuits. The results provide some justification for the lobby by the Caribbean Community and Small Island Developing States to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, as embodied in the slogan “1.5 to Stay Alive.”
Keywords: Climate variability

Climate change and Caribbean: Review and response - Taylor, Michael A.; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Chen, A. Anthony; Stephenson, Kimberly A. (Caribbean Studies, 2012)

A decomposition of feedback contributions to polar warming amplification - Taylor, Patrick C.; Cai, Ming; Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Jerry; Washington, Warren; Zhang, Guang J. (Journal of Climate, 2013)
Polar surface temperatures are expected to warm 2–3 times faster than the global-mean surface temperature: a phenomenon referred to as polar warming amplification. Therefore, understanding the individual process contributions to the polar warming is critical to understanding global climate sensitivity. The Coupled Feedback Response Analysis Method (CFRAM) is applied to decompose the annual- and zonal-mean vertical temperature response within a transient 1% yr−1 CO2 increase simulation of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), into individual radiative and nonradiative climate feedback process contributions. The total transient annual-mean polar warming amplification (amplification factor) at the time of CO2 doubling is +2.12 (2.3) and +0.94 K (1.6) in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, respectively. Surface albedo feedback is the largest contributor to the annual-mean polar warming amplification accounting for +1.82 and +1.04 K in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, respectively. Net cloud feedback is found to be the second largest contributor to polar warming amplification (about +0.38 K in both hemispheres) and is driven by the enhanced downward longwave radiation to the surface resulting from increases in low polar water cloud. The external forcing and atmospheric dynamic transport also contribute positively to polar warming amplification: +0.29 and +0.32 K, respectively. Water vapor feedback contributes negatively to polar warming amplification because its induced surface warming is stronger in low latitudes. Ocean heat transport storage and surface turbulent flux feedbacks also contribute negatively to polar warming amplification. Ocean heat transport and storage terms play an important role in reducing the warming over the Southern Ocean and Northern Atlantic Ocean.
Keywords: Climate change,Climate sensitivity,Feedback,Forcing

Arctic changes and their effects on Alaska and the rest of the United States - Taylor, P.C.; Maslowski, W.; Perlwitz, J.; Wuebbles, D.J. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

Ground water and climate change - Taylor, R.G.; Scanlon, B.; Döll, P.; Rodell, M.; van Beek, R.; Wada, Y.; Longuevergne, L.; Leblanc, M.; Famiglietti, J.S.; Edmunds, M.; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974–2006 - Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S. (Marine Mammal Science, 2015)
Keywords: Pacific Walrus Odobenus rosmarus divergens Bayesian hidden process model integrated population model survival reproduction population growth rate demography density dependence

Tribal Climate Change Profile. Santa Ynez Band of Chumash Indians: Climate Change and Environmental Management Programs - TCCP (Tribal Climate Change Profile (TCCP) Project, University of Oregon, 2013)

Draft Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures - TCFD (Financial Stability Board, Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), 2016)

Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures - TCFD (Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), 2017)

Estimated impacts of emission reductions on wheat and maize crops - Tebaldi, Claudia; Lobell, David (Climatic Change, 2015)
We assess the benefits of climate change mitigation for global maize and wheat production over the 21st century by comparing outcomes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 as simulated by two large initial condition ensembles from NCAR’s Community Earth System Model. We use models of the relation between climate variables, CO2 concentrations, and yields built on observations and then project this relation on the basis of simulated future temperature and precipitation and CO2 trajectories under the two scenarios, for short (2021–2040), medium (2041–2060) and long (2061–2080) time horizons. We focus on projected mean yield impacts, chances of significant slowdowns in yield, and exposure to damaging heat during critical periods of the growing seasons, the last of which is not explicitly considered in yield impacts by most models, including ours. We find that substantial benefits from mitigation would be achieved throughout the 21st century for maize, in terms of reducing (1) the size of average yield impacts, with mean losses for maize under RCP8.5 reduced under RCP4.5 by about 25 %, 40 % and 50 % as the time horizon lengthens over the 21st century; (2) the risk of major slowdowns over a 10 or 20 year period, with maize chances under RCP4.5 being reduced up to ~75 % by the end of the century compared to those estimated under RCP8.5; and (3) exposure to critical or “lethal” heat extremes, with the number of extremely hot days under RCP8.5 roughly triple current levels by end of century, compared to a doubling for RCP4.5. For wheat, we project small or occasionally negative effects of mitigation for projected yields, because of stronger CO2 fertilization effects than in maize, but substantial benefits of mitigation remain in terms of exposure to extremely high temperatures.

Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts - Tebaldi, C.; Strauss, B.H.; Zervas, C.E. (Environmental Research Letters, 2012)

Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5 - Tebaldi, Claudia; Wehner, Michael F. (Climatic Change, 2016)
Using ensembles from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) under a high and a lower emission scenarios, we investigate changes in statistics of extreme daily temperature. The ensembles provide large samples for a robust application of extreme value theory. We estimate return values and return periods for annual maxima of the daily high and low temperatures as well as the 3-day averages of the same variables in current and future climate. Results indicate statistically significant increases (compared to the reference period of 1996–2005) in extreme temperatures over all land areas as early as 2025 under both scenarios, with statistically significant differences between them becoming pervasive over the globe by 2050. The substantially smaller changes, for all indices, produced under the lower emission case translate into sizeable benefits from emission mitigation: By 2075, in terms of reduced changes in 1-day heat extremes, about 95 % of land regions would see benefits of 1 °C or more under the lower emissions scenario, and 50 % or more of the land areas would benefit by at least 2 °C. 6 % of the land area would benefit by 3 °C or more in projected extreme minimum temperatures and 13 % would benefit by this amount for extreme maximum temperature. Benefits for 3-day metrics are similar. The future frequency of current extremes is also greatly reduced by mitigation: by the end of the century, under RCP8.5 more than half the land area experiences the current 20-year events every year while only between about 10 and 25 % of the area is affected by such severe changes under RCP4.5.

The darkening of the Greenland ice sheet: Trends, drivers, and projections (1981–2100) - Tedesco, M.; Doherty, S.; Fettweis, X.; Alexander, P.; Jeyaratnam, J.; Stroeve, J. (The Cryosphere, 2016)

Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change - Temmerman, Stijn; Meire, Patrick; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Herman, Peter M. J.; Ysebaert, Tom; De Vriend, Huib J. (Nature, 2013)

Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA - Terando, Adam J.; Reich, Brian; Pacifici, Krishna; Costanza, Jennifer; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A. (Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, 2016)
Human‐caused climate change is predicted to affect the frequency of hazard‐linked extremes. Unusually large wildfires are a type of extreme event that is constrained by climate and can be a hazard to society but also an important ecological disturbance. This chapter focuses on changes in the frequency of extreme monthly area burned by wildfires for the end of the 21st century for a wildfire‐prone region in the southeast United States. Predicting changes in area burned is complicated by the large and varied uncertainties in how the climate will change and in the models used to predict those changes. The chapter characterizes and quantifies multiple sources of uncertainty and propagate the expanded prediction intervals of future area burned. It illustrates that while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in global change science problems is a difficult task, it will be necessary in order to properly assess the risk of increased exposure to these society‐relevant events.

Storm-surge flooding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim delta, Alaska - Terenzi, John; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Ely, Craig R.; Giguére, Nicole (Arctic, 2014)

Responses of atoll freshwater lenses to storm-surge overwash in the Northern Cook Islands - Terry, James P.; Falkland, Anthony C. (Hydrogeology Journal, 2010)
A category 5 tropical cyclone swept a storm surge across remote Pukapuka Atoll in the Northern Cook Islands (South Pacific Ocean) in late February 2005. Groundwater salinity (specific conductance) observations are reported for the 2-year post-storm period, with the aim of investigating the effects of saltwater intrusion on thin freshwater lenses within the atoll islets. This is the first article to present field observations of such an event. Specific conductance at shallow depths increased dramatically from potable conditions (approximately 1,000 μS/cm) to brackish levels unsuitable for drinking (up to 10,000 μS/cm) shortly after the cyclone. Subsequently, the freshwater lenses required 11 months to recover. Within the thickest aquifer, a well-defined saline plume formed at 6 m depth, sandwiching a freshwater layer beneath it and the base of the lens. Plume dispersal proceeded only gradually, owing to its formation at the start of the SW Pacific regional dry season and the low tidal range on Pukapuka. Consequently, the remnant of the plume was still present 26 months after the saltwater incursion. An important finding was that the freshwater horizon preserved at depth maintained salinity levels below 1,800 μS/cm (i.e. within usable limits) for at least 5 months after surface overwash.

Quantifying the effects of nutrient loading on dissolved O2 cycling and hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay using a coupled hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model - Testa, Jeremy M.; Li, Yun; Lee, Younjoo J.; Li, Ming; Brady, Damian C.; Di Toro, Dominic M.; Kemp, W. Michael; Fitzpatrick, James J. (Journal of Marine Systems, 2014)
Keywords: Oxygen Modeling ROMS Chesapeake Bay Nitrogen Phosphorus Carbon

Texas A&M Forest Service survey shows 301 million trees killed by drought - Texas A&M Forest Service (Newsroom, 2012)

Diabetes Data: Surveillance and Evaluation [web site] - Texas Department of State Health Services (Texas Department of State Health Services, 2018)

Texas Rice County Estimates - Texas Field Office (USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2018)

Texas Coastal Resiliency Master Plan - Texas General Land Office (2017)

Recovery: Disasters: Floods [web page] - Texas General Land Office (Texas General Land Office, 2018)

News Release: Texas Fish Hatcheries Serve as Refuges for Imperiled Species - Texas Parks & Wildlife (2012)

Texas State Water Plan - Texas Water Development Board (State of Texas, 2012)

Desalination: Brackish Groundwater [online fact sheet] - Texas Water Development Board (2016)

2017 State Water Plan: Water for Texas - Texas Water Development Board (2017)

Public Water Supply Desalination Plant Capacities [infographic] - Texas Water Development Board (2017)

Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution 2010 Part A: Ozone and Particulate Matter - TFHTAP (United Nations, Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TFHTAP), 2010)

Texas Hospital Association Hurricane Harvey Analysis: Texas Hospitals’ Preparation Strategies and Priorities for Future Disaster Response - THA (Texas Hospital Association (THA), 2018)

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels - Thackeray, Stephen J.; Henrys, Peter A.; Hemming, Deborah; Bell, James R.; Botham, Marc S.; Burthe, Sarah; Helaouet, Pierre; Johns, David G.; Jones, Ian D.; Leech, David I.; Mackay, Eleanor B.; Massimino, Dario; et al. (Nature, 2016)

Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments - Thackeray, Stephen J.; Sparks, Timothy H.; Frederiksen, Morten; Burthe, Sarah; Bacon, Philip J.; Bell, James R.; Botham, Marc S.; Brereton, Tom M.; Bright, Paul W.; Carvalho, Laurence; Clutton-Brock, T. I. M.; Dawson, Alistair; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2010)
Keywords: climate linear mixed effects models meta-analysis phenology traits trophic mismatch

Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast - Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A. (Journal of Coastal Research, 2013)
Keywords: Relative sea-level rise,coastal vulnerability index,economic value,coastal infrastructure,Gulf of Mexico

Taking Stock of Adaptation Programs in the Arctic - The Arctic Council (Arctic Council Secretariat, 2013)

The National Strategy: The Final Phase in the Development of the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy - The National Strategy (U.S. Departments of the Interior and Agriculture, 2014)

Coral Reef Module: Overfishing and destructive fishing threats - The Nature Conservancy (The Nature Conservancy, Reef Resilience, 2017)

Carbon Pricing Dashboard [web tool] - The World Bank (The World Bank, 2018)

Climate wars? Assessing the claim that drought breeds conflict - Theisen, Ole Magnus; Holtermann, Helge; Buhaug, Halvard (International Security, 2011)

Development and applications of a comprehensive land use classification and map for the US - Theobald, David M (PLOS ONE, 2014)

Expansion of the US wildland-urban interface - Theobald, D.M.; Romme, W.H. (Landscape and Urban Planning, 2007)

Ch. 3: The changing southwest - Theobald, D.M.; Travis, W.R.; Drummond, M.A.; Gordon, E.S. (Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, 2013)

Sea level anomalies exacerbate beach erosion - Theuerkauf, Ethan J.; Rodriguez, Antonio B.; Fegley, Stephen R.; Luettich, Richard A. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Keywords: sea level anomaly beach erosion barrier island coastal management climate change sea level rise 4217 Coastal processes 4556 Sea level: variations and mean

Changing climate extremes in the Northeast United States: Observations and projections from CMIP5 - Thibeault, Jeanne M.; Seth, Anji (Climatic Change, 2014)
Climate extremes indices are evaluated for the northeast United States and adjacent Canada (Northeast) using gridded observations and twenty-three CMIP5 coupled models. Previous results have demonstrated observed increases in warm and wet extremes and decreases in cold extremes, consistent with changes expected in a warming world. Here, a significant shift is found in the distribution of observed total annual precipitation over 1981-2010. In addition, significant positive trends are seen in all observed wet precipitation indices over 1951-2010. For the Northeast region, CMIP5 models project significant shifts in the distributions of most temperature and precipitation indices by 2041-2070. By the late century, the coldest (driest) future extremes are projected to be warmer (wetter) than the warmest (wettest) extremes at present. The multimodel interquartile range compares well with observations, providing a measure of confidence in the projections in this region. Spatial analysis suggests that the largest increases in heavy precipitation extremes are projected for northern, coastal, and mountainous areas. Results suggest that the projected increase in total annual precipitation is strongly influenced by increases in winter wet extremes. The largest decreases in cold extremes are projected for northern and interior portions of the Northeast, while the largest increases in summer warm extremes are projected for densely populated southern, central, and coastal areas. This study provides a regional analysis and verification of the latest generation of CMIP global models specifically for the Northeast, useful to stakeholders focused on understanding and adapting to climate change and its impacts in the region.

Smartphone-based distributed data collection enables rapid assessment of shorebird habitat suitability - Thieler, E. Robert; Zeigler, Sara L.; Winslow, Luke A.; Hines, Megan K.; Read, Jordan S.; Walker, Jordan I. (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Understanding and managing dynamic coastal landscapes for beach-dependent species requires biological and geological data across the range of relevant environments and habitats. It is difficult to acquire such information; data often have limited focus due to resource constraints, are collected by non-specialists, or lack observational uniformity. We developed an open-source smartphone application called iPlover that addresses these difficulties in collecting biogeomorphic information at piping plover (Charadrius melodus) nest sites on coastal beaches. This paper describes iPlover development and evaluates data quality and utility following two years of collection (n = 1799 data points over 1500 km of coast between Maine and North Carolina, USA). We found strong agreement between field user and expert assessments and high model skill when data were used for habitat suitability prediction. Methods used here to develop and deploy a distributed data collection system have broad applicability to interdisciplinary environmental monitoring and modeling.

Restoring monarch butterfly habitat in the Midwestern US: "All hands on deck" - Thogmartin, Wayne E.; López-Hoffman, Laura; Rohweder, Jason; Diffendorfer, Jay; Drum, Ryan; Semmens, Darius; Black, Scott; Caldwell, Iris; Cotter, Donita; Drobney, Pauline; Jackson, Laura L.; Gale, Michael; et al. (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus plexippus ) has declined by >80% within the last two decades. One possible cause of this decline is the loss of ≥1.3 billion stems of milkweed ( Asclepias spp.), which monarchs require for reproduction. In an effort to restore monarchs to a population goal established by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and adopted by Mexico, Canada, and the US, we developed scenarios for amending the Midwestern US landscape with milkweed. Scenarios for milkweed restoration were developed for protected area grasslands, Conservation Reserve Program land, powerline, rail and roadside rights of way, urban/suburban lands, and land in agricultural production. Agricultural land was further divided into productive and marginal cropland. We elicited expert opinion as to the biological potential (in stems per acre) for lands in these individual sectors to support milkweed restoration and the likely adoption (probability) of management practices necessary for affecting restoration. Sixteen of 218 scenarios we developed for restoring milkweed to the Midwestern US were at levels (>1.3 billion new stems) necessary to reach the monarch population goal. One of these scenarios would convert all marginal agriculture to conserved status. The other 15 scenarios converted half of marginal agriculture (730 million stems), with remaining stems contributed by other societal sectors. Scenarios without substantive agricultural participation were insufficient for attaining the population goal. Agricultural lands are essential to reaching restoration targets because they occupy 77% of all potential monarch habitat. Barring fundamental changes to policy, innovative application of economic tools such as habitat exchanges may provide sufficient resources to tip the balance of the agro-ecological landscape toward a setting conducive to both robust agricultural production and reduced imperilment of the migratory monarch butterfly.

Hot Alaska: As the climate warms, Alaska experiences record high temperatures - Thoman, Richard; Brettschneider, Brian (Weatherwise, 2016)

Seasonal trends and phenology shifts in sea surface temperature on the North American northeastern continental shelf - Thomas, Andrew C.; Pershing, Andrew J.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Nye, Janet A.; Mills, Katherine E.; Alexander, Michael A.; Record, Nicholas R.; Weatherbee, Ryan; Henderson, M. Elisabeth (Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2017)

Reemergence of Dengue in Southern Texas, 2013 - Thomas, Dana; Santiago, Gilberto A.; Abeyta, Roman; Hinojosa, Steven; Torres-Velasquez, Brenda; Adam, Jessica K.; Evert, Nicole; Caraballo, Elba; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L.; Smith, Brian; Banicki, Alison; et al. (Emerging Infectious Disease Journal, 2016)
During a dengue epidemic in northern Mexico, enhanced surveillance identified 53 laboratory-positive cases in southern Texas; 26 (49%) patients acquired the infection locally, and 29 (55%) were hospitalized. Of 83 patient specimens that were initially IgM negative according to ELISA performed at a commercial laboratory, 14 (17%) were dengue virus positive by real-time reverse transcription PCR performed at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Dengue virus types 1 and 3 were identified, and molecular phylogenetic analysis demonstrated close identity with viruses that had recently circulated in Mexico and Central America. Of 51 household members of 22 dengue case-patients who participated in household investigations, 6 (12%) had been recently infected with a dengue virus and reported no recent travel, suggesting intrahousehold transmission. One household member reported having a recent illness consistent with dengue. This outbreak reinforces emergence of dengue in southern Texas, particularly when incidence is high in northern Mexico.
Keywords: Dengue dengue virus outbreak reemergence Texas United States vector-borne infections viruses

Washeteria closures, infectious disease and community health in rural Alaska: A review of clinical data in Kivalina, Alaska - Thomas, Timothy K.; Bell, Jake; Bruden, Dana; Hawley, Millie; Brubaker, Michael (International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 2013)
Keywords: Adolescent Adult Age Factors Aged Alaska/epidemiology Child Child, Preschool Communicable Diseases/*epidemiology Gastrointestinal Diseases/epidemiology Housing/standards Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Islands/epidemiology Middle Aged Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiology Rural Population/*statistics & numerical data Sanitation/standards Skin Diseases, Bacterial/epidemiology *Waste Disposal Facilities Water Supply Young Adult infectious diseases water water access

Summarizing Components of U.S. Department of the Interior Vulnerability Assessments to Focus Climate Adaptation Planning - Thompson, Laura M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L. (U. S. Geological Survey, 2015)

Western North America: Vegetation dynamics in the western United States: Modes of response to climatic fluctuations - Thompson, Robert S. (Vegetation History, 1988)

Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America—Modern Data for Climatic Estimation from Vegetation Inventories - Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Strickland, Laura E.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2012)

A systems approach to evaluating the air quality co-benefits of US carbon policies - Thompson, Tammy M.; Rausch, Sebastian; Saari, Rebecca K.; Selin, Noelle E. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

Naturally acidified habitat selects for ocean acidification–tolerant mussels - Thomsen, Jörn; Stapp, Laura S.; Haynert, Kristin; Schade, Hanna; Danelli, Maria; Lannig, Gisela; Wegner, K. Mathias; Melzner, Frank (Science Advances, 2017)
Ocean acidification severely affects bivalves, especially their larval stages. Consequently, the fate of this ecologically and economically important group depends on the capacity and rate of evolutionary adaptation to altered ocean carbonate chemistry. We document successful settlement of wild mussel larvae (Mytilus edulis) in a periodically CO2-enriched habitat. The larval fitness of the population originating from the CO2-enriched habitat was compared to the response of a population from a nonenriched habitat in a common garden experiment. The high CO2–adapted population showed higher fitness under elevated Pco2 (partial pressure of CO2) than the non-adapted cohort, demonstrating, for the first time, an evolutionary response of a natural mussel population to ocean acidification. To assess the rate of adaptation, we performed a selection experiment over three generations. CO2 tolerance differed substantially between the families within the F1 generation, and survival was drastically decreased in the highest, yet realistic, Pco2 treatment. Selection of CO2-tolerant F1 animals resulted in higher calcification performance of F2 larvae during early shell formation but did not improve overall survival. Our results thus reveal significant short-term selective responses of traits directly affected by ocean acidification and long-term adaptation potential in a key bivalve species. Because immediate response to selection did not directly translate into increased fitness, multigenerational studies need to take into consideration the multivariate nature of selection acting in natural habitats. Combinations of short-term selection with long-term adaptation in populations from CO2-enriched versus nonenriched natural habitats represent promising approaches for estimating adaptive potential of organisms facing global change.

RCP4.5: A pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100 - Thomson, A.M.; Calvin, K.V.; Smith, S.J.; Kyle, G.P.; Volke, A.; Patel, P.; Delgado-Arias, S.; Bond-Lamberty, B.; Wise, M.A.; Clarke, L.E. (Climatic Change, 2011)

Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years - Thornalley, David J. R.; Oppo, Delia W.; Ortega, Pablo; Robson, Jon I.; Brierley, Chris M.; Davis, Renee; Hall, Ian R.; Moffa-Sanchez, Paola; Rose, Neil L.; Spooner, Peter T.; Yashayaev, Igor; Keigwin, Lloyd D. (Nature, 2018)
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that has an essential role in Earth’s climate, redistributing heat and influencing the carbon cycle1, 2. The AMOC has been shown to be weakening in recent years 1 ; this decline may reflect decadal-scale variability in convection in the Labrador Sea, but short observational datasets preclude a longer-term perspective on the modern state and variability of Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC1, 3–5. Here we provide several lines of palaeo-oceanographic evidence that Labrador Sea deep convection and the AMOC have been anomalously weak over the past 150 years or so (since the end of the Little Ice Age, LIA, approximately ad 1850) compared with the preceding 1,500 years. Our palaeoclimate reconstructions indicate that the transition occurred either as a predominantly abrupt shift towards the end of the LIA, or as a more gradual, continued decline over the past 150 years; this ambiguity probably arises from non-AMOC influences on the various proxies or from the different sensitivities of these proxies to individual components of the AMOC. We suggest that enhanced freshwater fluxes from the Arctic and Nordic seas towards the end of the LIA—sourced from melting glaciers and thickened sea ice that developed earlier in the LIA—weakened Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC. The lack of a subsequent recovery may have resulted from hysteresis or from twentieth-century melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet 6 . Our results suggest that recent decadal variability in Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC has occurred during an atypical, weak background state. Future work should aim to constrain the roles of internal climate variability and early anthropogenic forcing in the AMOC weakening described here.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems - Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Livestock production: Recent trends, future prospects - Thornton, P.K. (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2010)

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: A review - Thornton, Philip K.; Ericksen, Polly J.; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J. (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Keywords: agriculture climate variability development food system poverty uncertainty vulnerability

Cultivation of salmon and other marine resources on the northwest coast of North America - Thornton, Thomas; Deur, Douglas; Kitka, Herman (Human Ecology, 2015)
We present evidence for cultivation of marine resources among aboriginal peoples of the Northwest Coast of North America. While such evidence has been marshalled for plant cultivation, we argue that similar cultivation techniques developed around salmon and other critical marine resources of which they had intimate knowledge, and that such interventions helped regularize supplies, ameliorate disruptions, accommodate shifts, and even reverse declines in species populations by recreating or strengthening conditions for sustaining species in dynamic ecological systems. The plants, fish, and wildlife of the region were resilient, and often pre-adapted to cyclic or stochastic disturbance regimes, but, like the aboriginal populations themselves, also vulnerable to environmental shocks and scarcities. We suggest that Northwest Coast indigenous people observed the effects of both gradual and rapid environmental change on key species over generations, and adjusted their behavior accordingly. The effects of human enhancement, human over-exploitation, or natural perturbations were often rapidly apprehended, allowing for feedback mechanisms that became integral to the technologies and social mechanisms for resource management. These practices are best conceptualized as cultivation techniques rather than restrictive conservation practices, designed to optimise resource supplies and harvest conditions, thus reducing risk and vulnerability and increasing social-ecological resilience.

Being and Place Among the Tlingit - Thornton, Thomas F. (University of Washington Press, 2008)

Haa Leelk'w Has Aani Saax'u / Our Grandparents' Names on the Land - Thornton, Thomas F. (Sealaska Heritage Institute; University of Washington Press, 2010)

Climate Change Risks and Supply Chain Responsibility - Thorpe, Jodie; Fennell, Shelly (Oxfam International, 2012)

Alaska Arctic Marine Fish Ecology Catalog - Thorsteinson, Lyman K.; Love, Milton S. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2016)

Measures of fishing fleet diversity in the New England groundfish fishery - Thunberg, Eric M.; Correia, Steven J. (Marine Policy, 2015)
Keywords: New England groundfish Fleet diversity Shannon index Evenness index Performance indicators

Air quality impacts from prescribed forest fires under different management practices - Tian, Di; Wang, Yuhang; Bergin, Michelle; Hu, Yongtao; Liu, Yongqiang; Russell, Armistead G. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2008)

Water supply as a constraint on transmission expansion planning in the Western interconnection - Tidwell, Vincent C.; Bailey, Michael; Zemlick, Katie M.; Moreland, Barbara D. (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
Consideration of water supply in transmission expansion planning (TEP) provides a valuable means of managing impacts of thermoelectric generation on limited water resources. Toward this opportunity, thermoelectric water intensity factors and water supply availability (fresh and non-fresh sources) were incorporated into a recent TEP exercise conducted for the electric interconnection in the Western United States. The goal was to inform the placement of new thermoelectric generation so as to minimize issues related to water availability. Although freshwater availability is limited in the West, few instances across five TEP planning scenarios were encountered where water availability impacted the development of new generation. This unexpected result was related to planning decisions that favored the development of low water use generation that was geographically dispersed across the West. These planning decisions were not made because of their favorable influence on thermoelectric water demand; rather, on the basis of assumed future fuel and technology costs, policy drivers and the topology of electricity demand. Results also projected that interconnection-wide thermoelectric water consumption would increase by 31% under the business-as-usual case, while consumption would decrease by 42% under a scenario assuming a low-carbon future. Except in a few instances, new thermoelectric water consumption could be accommodated with less than 10% of the local available water supply; however, limited freshwater supplies and state-level policies could increase use of non-fresh water sources for new thermoelectric generation. Results could have been considerably different if scenarios favoring higher-intensity water use generation technology or potential impacts of climate change had been explored. Conduct of this exercise highlighted the importance of integrating water into all phases of TEP, particularly joint management of decisions that are both directly (e.g., water availability constraint) and indirectly (technology or policy constraints) related to future thermoelectric water demand, as well as, the careful selection of scenarios that adequately bound the potential dimensions of water impact.

Geographic footprint of electricity use for water services in the western U.S - Tidwell, Vincent C.; Moreland, Barbie; Zemlick, Katie (Environmental Science & Technology, 2014)

Global environmental impacts of agricultural expansion: The need for sustainable and efficient practices - Tilman, David (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 1999)
The recent intensification of agriculture, and the prospects of future intensification, will have major detrimental impacts on the nonagricultural terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of the world. The doubling of agricultural food production during the past 35 years was associated with a 6.87-fold increase in nitrogen fertilization, a 3.48-fold increase in phosphorus fertilization, a 1.68-fold increase in the amount of irrigated cropland, and a 1.1-fold increase in land in cultivation. Based on a simple linear extension of past trends, the anticipated next doubling of global food production would be associated with approximately 3-fold increases in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization rates, a doubling of the irrigated land area, and an 18% increase in cropland. These projected changes would have dramatic impacts on the diversity, composition, and functioning of the remaining natural ecosystems of the world, and on their ability to provide society with a variety of essential ecosystem services. The largest impacts would be on freshwater and marine ecosystems, which would be greatly eutrophied by high rates of nitrogen and phosphorus release from agricultural fields. Aquatic nutrient eutrophication can lead to loss of biodiversity, outbreaks of nuisance species, shifts in the structure of food chains, and impairment of fisheries. Because of aerial redistribution of various forms of nitrogen, agricultural intensification also would eutrophy many natural terrestrial ecosystems and contribute to atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases. These detrimental environmental impacts of agriculture can be minimized only if there is much more efficient use and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus in agroecosystems.

The Journal of Southern Timber Prices - Timber Mart-South (Norris Foundation, 2018)

Situational awareness and information collection from critical infrastructure - Timonen, J.; Lääperi, L.; Rummukainen, L.; Puuska, S.; Vankka, J. (2014 6th International Conference On Cyber Conflict (CyCon 2014), 2014)

A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration - Timpane-Padgham, Britta L.; Beechie, Tim; Klinger, Terrie (PLOS ONE, 2017)
Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9), population- (6), community- (7), ecosystem- (7), or process-level attributes (16). Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1) including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2) considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3) certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to confer resilience because they apply to a wide variety of species and ecosystems. We propose that identifying sources of ecological resilience is a critical step in restoring ecosystems in a changing climate.

The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges - Tingley, Morgan W.; Koo, Michelle S.; Moritz, Craig; Rush, Andrew C.; Beissinger, Steven R. (Global Change Biology, 2012)
Keywords: birds California climate change elevational range shift occupancy models precipitation Sierra Nevada

Extinction of an introduced warm-climate alien species, Xenopus laevis, by extreme weather events - Tinsley, Richard C.; Stott, Lucy C.; Viney, Mark E.; Mable, Barbara K.; Tinsley, Matthew C. (Biological Invasions, 2015)
Invasive, non-native species represent a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. The African amphibian Xenopus laevis is widely regarded as an invasive species and a threat to local faunas. Populations originating at the Western Cape, South Africa, have been introduced on four continents, mostly in areas with a similar Mediterranean climate. Some introduced populations are also established in cooler environments where persistence for many decades suggests a capacity for long-term adaptation. In these cases, recent climate warming might enhance invasion ability, favouring range expansion, population growth and negative effects on native faunas. In the cool temperate UK, populations have been established for about 50 years in Wales and for an unknown period, probably >20 years, in England (Lincolnshire). Our field studies over 30 and 10 years, respectively, show that in favourable conditions there may be good recruitment, fast individual growth rates and large body size; maximum longevity exceeds 23 years. Nevertheless, areas of distribution remained limited, with numbers <500 in each population. In 2010, only a single individual was captured at each locality and further searching failed to record any others in repeated sampling up to 2014. We conclude that both populations are now extinct. The winters of 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 experienced extreme cold and drought (December 2010 was the coldest in 120 years and the third driest in 100 years). The extinction of X. laevis in these areas indicates that even relatively long-established alien species remain vulnerable to rare extreme weather conditions.

Changing volatility of U.S. annual tornado reports - Tippett, Michael K. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Keywords: tornadoes 1872 Time series analysis 3270 Time series analysis 3309 Climatology 4301 Atmospheric

Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century - Tjaden, Nils B.; Suk, Jonathan E.; Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M.; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C. (Scientific Reports, 2017)
The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.

Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species - Tobin, Patrick C.; Nagarkatti, Sudha; Loeb, Greg; Saunders, Michael C. (Global Change Biology, 2008)
Keywords: climate change diapause insect population dynamics phenology photoperiod seasonality voltinism

Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century - Todd-Brown, K. E. O.; Randerson, J. T.; Hopkins, F.; Arora, V.; Hajima, T.; Jones, C.; Shevliakova, E.; Tjiputra, J.; Volodin, E.; Wu, T.; Zhang, Q.; Allison, S. D. (Biogeosciences, 2014)
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Impacts of 21st-century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America - Tohver, Ingrid M.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2014)
Climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America include warmer temperatures (T), reduced precipitation (P) in summer months, and increased P during all other seasons. Using a physically based hydrologic model and an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate model scenarios produced by the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, we examine the nature of changing hydrologic extremes (floods and low flows) under natural conditions for about 300 river locations in the PNW. The combination of warming, and shifts in seasonal P regimes, results in increased flooding and more intense low flows for most of the basins in the PNW. Flood responses depend on average midwinter T and basin type. Mixed rain and snow basins, with average winter temperatures near freezing, typically show the largest increases in flood risk because of the combined effects of warming (increasing contributing basin area) and more winter P. Decreases in low flows are driven by loss of snowpack, drier summers, and increasing evapotranspiration in the simulations. Energy-limited basins on the west side of the Cascades show the strongest declines in low flows, whereas more arid, water-limited basins on the east side of the Cascades show smaller reductions in low flows. A fine-scale analysis of hydrologic extremes over the Olympic Peninsula echoes the results for the larger rivers discussed above, but provides additional detail about topographic gradients.

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability - Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)

Estimates of the damage costs of climate change, Part II. Dynamic estimates - Tol, Richard S.J. (Environmental and Resource Economics, 2002)
Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts areexpressed as functions of climate change and `vulnerability'. Vulnerabilityis measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, populationabove 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine worldregions, for the period 2000–2200, for agriculture, forestry, waterresources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector-borne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders.Uncertainties are large, often including sign switches. In the short term,the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be thecrucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of thesector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts can be negativeor positive, depending on the time, region, and sector one is looking at.Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorerregions.

The economic impacts of climate change - Tol, Richard S. J. (Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2018)
This article reviews the economic impacts of climate change and the policy implications of the results. Current estimates indicate that climate change will likely have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the twenty-first century. In fact, the initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. However, in the long run the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Although climate change may affect the growth rate of the global economy and may trap more people in poverty, quantification of these impacts remains difficult. The optimal carbon tax in the near term is somewhere between a few tens and a few hundreds of dollars per ton of carbon.

Biological response to changes in climate patterns: Population increases of gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) in Texas bays and estuaries - Tolan, James M.; Fisher, Mark (Fishery Bulletin, 2009)

Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios - Toloo, Ghasem; Hu, Wenbiao; FitzGerald, Gerry; Aitken, Peter; Tong, Shilu (Scientific Reports, 2015)

The Need for Multiple Types of Information to Inform Climate Change Assessment - Toman, Michael (World Bank Group, 2014)
License: CC BY 3.0 IGO

Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems - Tomasek, Bradley J.; Williams, Martin M., II; Davis, Adam S. (PLOS ONE, 2017)
As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology - Tomer, Mark D.; Schilling, Keith E. (Journal of Hydrology, 2009)
Keywords: Ecohydrology Climate change Land use change Gulf of Mexico hypoxia Watershed analysis US Midwest

Including the urban heat island in spatial heat health risk assessment strategies: A case study for Birmingham, UK - Tomlinson, Charlie J.; Chapman, Lee; Thornes, John E.; Baker, Christopher J. (International Journal of Health Geographics, 2011)
Heatwaves present a significant health risk and the hazard is likely to escalate with the increased future temperatures presently predicted by climate change models. The impact of heatwaves is often felt strongest in towns and cities where populations are concentrated and where the climate is often unintentionally modified to produce an urban heat island effect; where urban areas can be significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas. The purpose of this interdisciplinary study is to integrate remotely sensed urban heat island data alongside commercial social segmentation data via a spatial risk assessment methodology in order to highlight potential heat health risk areas and build the foundations for a climate change risk assessment. This paper uses the city of Birmingham, UK as a case study area.

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts - Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; et al. (Progress in Oceanography, 2017)

Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society - Tompkins, Emma L.; Adger, W. Neil; Boyd, Emily; Nicholson-Cole, Sophie; Weatherhead, Keith; Arnell, Nigel (Global Environmental Change, 2010)
Keywords: Transition Adaptation Climate change Adaptive capacity Institutions

Intensified dust storm activity and Valley fever infection in the southwestern United States - Tong, Daniel Q.; Wang, Julian X. L.; Gill, Thomas E.; Lei, Hang; Wang, Binyu (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: dust Valley fever climate air quality aerosol health 0305 Aerosols and particles 0360 Radiation: transmission and scattering 1616 Climate variability 1630 Impacts of global change

Habitat restoration benefits wild bees: A meta-analysis - Tonietto, Rebecca K.; Larkin, Daniel J. (Journal of Applied Ecology, 2018)
Pollinator conservation is of increasing interest in the light of managed honeybee (Apis mellifera) declines, and declines in some species of wild bees. Much work has gone into understanding the effects of habitat enhancements in agricultural systems on wild bee abundance, richness and pollination services. However, the effects of ecological restoration targeting “natural” ecological endpoints (e.g. restoring former agricultural fields to historic vegetation types or improving degraded natural lands) on wild bees have received relatively little attention, despite their potential importance for countering habitat loss. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of ecological restoration on wild bee abundance and richness, focusing on unmanaged bee communities in lands restored and managed to increase habitat availability and quality. Specifically, we assessed bee abundance and/or richness across studies comparing restored vs. unrestored treatments and studies investigating effects of specific habitat restoration techniques, such as burning, grazing, invasive plant removal and seeding. We analysed 28 studies that met our selection criteria: these represented 11 habitat types and 7 restoration techniques. Nearly all restorations associated with these studies were performed without explicit consideration of habitat needs for bees or other pollinators. The majority of restorations targeted plant community goals, which could potentially have ancillary benefits for bees. Restoration had overall positive effects on wild bee abundance and richness across multiple habitat types. Specific restoration actions, tested independently, also tended to have positive effects on wild bee richness and abundance. Synthesis and applications. We found strong evidence that ecological restoration advances wild bee conservation. This is important given that habitat loss is recognized as a leading factor in pollinator decline. Pollinator responses to land management are rarely evaluated in non-agricultural settings and so support for wild bees may be an underappreciated benefit of botanically focused management. Future restoration projects that explicitly consider the needs of wild bees could be more effective at providing nesting, foraging and other habitat resources. We encourage land managers to design and evaluate restoration projects with the habitat needs of wild bee species in mind.

Flow regime alteration degrades ecological networks in riparian ecosystems - Tonkin, Jonathan D.; Merritt, David M.; Olden, Julian D.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Lytle, David A. (Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2018)
Riverine ecosystems are governed by patterns of temporal variation in river flows. This dynamism will change due to climate change and the near-ubiquitous human control of river flows globally, which may have severe effects on species distributions and interactions. We employed a combination of population modelling and network theory to explore the consequences of possible flow regime futures on riparian plant communities, including scenarios of increased drought, flooding and flow homogenization (removal of flow variability). We found that even slight modifications to the historic natural flow regime had significant consequences for the structure of riparian plant networks. Networks of emergent interactions between plant guilds were most connected at the natural flow regime and became simplified with increasing flow alteration. The most influential component of flow alteration was flood reduction, with drought and flow homogenization both having greater simplifying community-wide consequences than increased flooding. These findings suggest that maintaining floods under future climates will be needed to overcome the negative long-term consequences of flow modification on riverine ecosystems.

Multidecadal increases in the Yukon River Basin of chemical fluxes as indicators of changing flowpaths, groundwater, and permafrost - Toohey, R. C.; Herman‐Mercer, N. M.; Schuster, P. F.; Mutter, E. A.; Koch, J. C. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: Yukon River surface water biogeochemistry permafrost time series analysis groundwater boreal

Temperature-driven proliferation of Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae in bryozoan hosts portends salmonid declines - Tops, S.; Lockwood, W.; Okamura, B. (Diseases of Aquatic Organisms, 2006)
Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is an emerging disease of salmonid fishes. It is provoked by temperature and caused by infective spores of the myxozoan parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which develops in freshwater bryozoans. We investigated the link between PKD and temperature by determining whether temperature influences the proliferation of T. bryosalmonae in the bryozoan host Fredericella sultana. Herein we show that increased temperatures drive the proliferation of T. bryosalmonae in bryozoans by provoking, accelerating and prolonging the production of infective spores from cryptic stages. Based on these results we predict that PKD outbreaks will increase further in magnitude and severity in wild and farmed salmonids as a result of climate-driven enhanced proliferation in invertebrate hosts, and urge for early implementation of management strategies to reduce future salmonid declines.
10.3354/dao070227

Precipitation and primary health care visits for gastrointestinal illness in Gothenburg, Sweden - Tornevi, Andreas; Barregård, Lars; Forsberg, Bertil (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Background The river Göta Älv is a source of freshwater for the City of Gothenburg, Sweden, and we recently identified a clear influence of upstream precipitation on concentrations of indicator bacteria in the river water, as well as an association with the daily number of phone calls to the nurse advice line related to acute gastrointestinal illnesses (AGI calls). This study aimed to examine visits to primary health-care centers owing to similar symptoms (AGI visits) in the same area, to explore associations with precipitation, and to compare variability in AGI visits and AGI calls. Methods We obtained data covering six years (2007–2012) of daily AGI visits and studied their association with prior precipitation (0–28 days) using a distributed lag nonlinear Poisson regression model, adjusting for seasonal patterns and covariates. In addition, we studied the effects of prolonged wet and dry weather on AGI visits. We analyzed lagged short-term relations between AGI visits and AGI calls, and we studied differences in their seasonal patterns using a binomial regression model. Results The study period saw a total of 17,030 AGI visits, and the number of daily visits decreased on days when precipitation occurred. However, prolonged wet weather was associated with an elevated number of AGI visits. Differences in seasonality patterns were observed between AGI visits and AGI calls, as visits were relatively less frequent during winter and relatively more frequent in August, and only weak short-term relations were found. Conclusion AGI visits and AGI calls seems to partly reflect different types of AGI illnesses, and the patients’ choice of medical contact (in-person visits versus phone calls) appears to depend on current weather conditions. An association between prolonged wet weather and increased AGI visits supports the hypothesis that the drinking water is related to an increased risk of AGI illnesses.

GOES-derived fog and low cloud indices for coastal north and central California ecological analyses - Torregrosa, Alicia; Combs, Cindy; Peters, Jeff (Earth and Space Science, 2016)
Fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) strongly influences the water, energy, and nutrient flux of coastal ecosystems. Easy-to-use FLCC data are needed to quantify the impacts of FLCC on ecosystem dynamics especially during hot and dry Mediterranean climate summers. Monthly, annual, and decadal FLCC digital maps (indices) were derived for June–September 1999–2009 for coastal California, latitude 34.50°N (south of Monterey Bay) to latitude 41.95°N (north of Crescent City) from 26,000 hourly night and day Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) images. Monthly average FLCC ranges from <2 to 18 hours per day (h/d). Average FLCC over the ocean increases from north (9 h/d) to south (14 h/d), whereas on land, FLCC is highest where land juts into the prevailing NW winds and is lowest in the lee of major capes. FLCC advects farthest inland through low-lying NW ocean-facing valleys. At night, average total hours of FLCC are higher more frequently on land than over the ocean. The interannual FLCC coefficient of variation shows long-term geographic stability that is strongly associated with landform position. FLCC hours per day mapped contours, derived from decadal average FLCC, delineate the commonly used term “fog belt” into FLCC zones with increased locational precision. FLCC indices are available for download from the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Climate Commons website (http://climate.calcommons.org/datasets/summertime-fog). FLCC indices can improve analyses of biogeographic and bioclimatic species distribution models; understanding meteorological mechanisms driving FLCC patterns; solar energy feasibility studies; investigations of ecohydrology, evapotranspiration, and agricultural irrigation demand; and viticulture ripening models.

Information and Communication Technologies for Climate Change Adaptation in Cities - Torres, Daniela; Maletjane, Motsomi (International Telecommunication Union (ITU), Focus Group on Smart Sustainable Cities – Working Group 2, 2015)

The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Pacific Ocean Atolls That House Department of Defense Installations - Torresan, Laura Zink; Storlazzi, Curt D. (US Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, 2014)

Hydrologic Conditions in the South Coast Aquifer, Puerto Rico, 2010–15 - Torres-Gonzalez, Sigfredo; Rodriguez, Jose M. (U. S. Geological Survey, 2016)

Resilient food systems: A qualitative tool for measuring food resilience - Toth, Attila; Rendall, Stacy; Reitsma, Femke (Urban Ecosystems, 2016)
This paper is dedicated to the topic of food resilience in the context of urban environments and aims at developing a qualitative tool for measuring it. The emphasis is laid on urban food security with a significant global relevance due to the interconnectedness of our urban and global food systems. We argue that food and agriculture have to be understood as integral components of contemporary urban and peri-urban landscapes as urban agriculture supports in many cases also ecosystems, biodiversity, urban ecology and urban landscape architecture. The topic is introduced through contemporary urban food system models and definitions followed by characteristics of a resilient urban food system, including consumer, producer, food processing, distribution and market resilience. Based on the review of food system models and assessment tools, a new food system model for resilience analysis has been developed. This is then applied to worked examples and further developed on the Christchurch case study, where the tool is applied to existing intra-urban and peri-urban landscape components of Christchurch, New Zealand.
Keywords: urban climate change cultural health resilience

S.C. Governor declares state of emergency as Hurricane Irma’s forecast path shifts - Townsend, Elizabeth; Tomasic, Megan (The Sun News, 2017)

Proton pumping accompanies calcification in foraminifera - Toyofuku, Takashi; Matsuo, Miki Y.; de Nooijer, Lennart Jan; Nagai, Yukiko; Kawada, Sachiko; Fujita, Kazuhiko; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Nomaki, Hidetaka; Tsuchiya, Masashi; Sakaguchi, Hide; Kitazato, Hiroshi (Nature Communications, 2017)

Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States - Trail, Marcus A.; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P.; Liu, Peng; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Hu, Yongtao; Rudokas, Jason R.; Miller, Paul J.; Nenes, Athanasios; Russell, Armistead G. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2015)

A widespread harmful algal bloom in the northeast Pacific [in "State of the Climate in 2015"] - Trainer, V.; Dortch, Quay; Adams, Nicolaus G.; Bill, Brian D.; Doucette, Greg; Kudela, Raphael (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016)

Energy sprawl is the largest driver of land use change in United States - Trainor, A. M.; McDonald, R. I.; Fargione, J. (PLOS ONE, 2016)

Adaptation - Trainor, Sarah F.; Abruitina, Larisa; Chapin III, F. Stuart; Chaschin, Valery; Cunsolo, Ashlee; Driscoll, David; Ford, James; Harper, Sherilee; Hartig, Lawrence; Kettle, Nathan; Klepikov, Alexander; Kofinas, Gary; et al. (Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Region, 2017)

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska - Trainor, Sarah F.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; McGuire, A. David; Calef, Monika; Fresco, Nancy; Kwart, Mary; Duffy, Paul; Lovecraft, Amy Lauren; Rupp, T. Scott; DeWilde, La’Ona; Huntington, Orville; Natcher, David C. (Polar Research, 2009)
This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We take a case study approach, and draw conclusions from the application of a variety of social science methods including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops, and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedbacks and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire, and human components of the boreal forest social ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that while urban and rural communities in Interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire due to climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate induced changes. In particular, reliance on wildfoods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by policy, economic or other pressures, can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this inadvertent response alone will not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses will be required given the magnitude of expected climate change and the likely intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.

Arctic climate impacts: Environmental injustice in Canada and the United States - Trainor, Sarah F.; Chapin III, F. Stuart; Huntington, Henry P.; Natcher, David C.; Kofinas, Gary (Local Environment: International Journal of Justice and Sustainability, 2007)

Not another webinar! Regional webinars as a platform for climate knowledge-to-action networking in Alaska - Trainor, Sarah F.; Kettle, Nathan P.; Gamble, J. Brook (Climate In Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation, 2016)

Human Adaptation to Climate Change in Alaska: Overview and Recommendations for Future Research and Assessment - Trainor, Sarah F.; Walsh, John E.; Gamble, J. Brook (Arctic, 2017)

Airport Climate Adaptation and Resilience - Transportation Research Board; National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (The National Academies Press, 2012)
TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Synthesis 33: Airport Climate Adaptation and Resilience reviews the range of risks to airports from projected climate change and the emerging approaches for handling them.
Keywords: Transportation and Infrastructure

Response to Extreme Weather Impacts on Transportation Systems - Transportation Research Board; National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (The National Academies Press, 2014)
TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Synthesis 454: Response to Extreme Weather Impacts on Transportation Systems examines eight recent cases of extreme weather in the United States from the perspectives of transportation operations, maintenance, design, construction, planning, communications, interagency coordination, and data and knowledge management.Appendices C-H are only available in the PDF version of the report.
Keywords: Transportation and Infrastructure

Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports - Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (The National Academies Press, 2015)
TRB's Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Report 147: Climate Change Adaptation Planning: Risk Assessment for Airports provides guidance for practitioners to understand the specific impacts climate change may have on their airports. The guidebook may help practitioners develop adaptation actions and incorporate those actions into the airport’s planning processes.Accompanying the guidebook, an electronic assessment tool called Airport Climate Risk Operational Screening (ACROS) is enclosed as a CD-ROM. The tool uses a formula to compute an estimated level of risk for assets and operations at the airport. These airport-specific risks are then ranked to provide an enterprise-level estimate of the relative risk posed by each asset and operation.The CD-ROM is also available for download from TRB’s website as an ISO image. Links to the ISO image and instructions for burning a CD-ROM from an ISO image are provided below.Help on Burning an .ISO CD-ROM ImageDownload the .ISO CD-ROM Image(Warning: This is a large file and may take some time to download using a high-speed connection.)CD-ROM Disclaimer - This software is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences or the Transportation Research Board (collectively "TRB") be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operation of this product. TRB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.
Keywords: Transportation and Infrastructure

Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing - Trapp, R.J.; Diffenbaugh, N.S.; Brooks, H.E.; Baldwin, M.E.; Robinson, E.D.; Pal, J.S. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007)
Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the United States might change because of enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or “environmental”) meteorological conditions that foster severe thunderstorm formation. Across this model suite, we find a net increase during the late 21st century in the number of days in which these severe thunderstorm environmental conditions (NDSEV) occur. Attributed primarily to increases in atmospheric water vapor within the planetary boundary layer, the largest increases in NDSEV are shown during the summer season, in proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal regions. For example, this analysis suggests a future increase in NDSEV of 100% or more in locations such as Atlanta, GA, and New York, NY. Any direct application of these results to the frequency of actual storms also must consider the storm initiation.
Keywords: climate change; United States; convective storm

Dam safety in South Carolina - Traynham, Michael S. (2017 South Carolina Bar Convention: Environment & Natural Resources Section/Administrative & Regulatory Law Committee Seminar, 2017)

A pan-Arctic synthesis of CH4 and CO2 production from anoxic soil incubations - Treat, Claire C.; Natali, Susan M.; Ernakovich, Jessica; Iversen, Colleen M.; Lupascu, Massimo; McGuire, Anthony David; Norby, Richard J.; Roy Chowdhury, Taniya; Richter, Andreas; Šantrůčková, Hana; Schädel, Christina; Schuur, Edward A. G.; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2015)
Keywords: anaerobic incubation arctic boreal carbon dioxide climate change methane permafrost

Geographic, anthropogenic, and habitat influences on Great Lakes coastal wetland fish assemblages - Trebitz, Anett S.; Brazner, John C.; Danz, Nicholas P.; Pearson, Mark S.; Peterson, Gregory S.; Tanner, Danny K.; Taylor, Debra L.; West, Corlis W.; Hollenhorst, Thomas P. (Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2009)

Coastal wetland support of Great Lakes fisheries: Progress from concept to quantification - Trebitz, Anett S.; Hoffman, Joel C. (Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 2015)

Has there been a hiatus? - Trenberth, Kevin E. (Science, 2015)

Review of July 2006 heat wave related fatalities in California - Trent, R. B. (California Department of Public Health, 2007)

Language ideology and policy in an American “Hot Spot”: Perspectives on Native American language education - Tribble, J. Taylor (Indigenous Concepts of Education: Toward Elevating Humanity for All Learners, 2014)

Daylighting Streams: Breathing Life into Urban Streams and Communities - Trice, Amy (American Rivers, 2016)

Rural Connections: Challenges and Opportunities in America's Heartland - TRIP (TRIP, 2015)

Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk - Troccoli, Alberto; Harrison, Mike; Anderson, David L. T.; Mason, Simon J. (Springer Netherlands, 2008)

Climate change and mental health - Trombley, Janna; Chalupka, Stephanie; Anderko, Laura (AJN The American Journal of Nursing, 2017)
Climate change is an enormous challenge for our communities, our country, and our world. Recently much attention has been paid to the physical impacts of climate change, including extreme heat events, droughts, extreme storms, and rising sea levels. However, much less attention has been paid to the psychological impacts. This article examines the likely psychological impacts of climate change, including anxiety, stress, and depression; increases in violence and aggression; and loss of community identity. Nurses can play a vital role in local and regional climate strategies by preparing their patients, health care facilities, and communities to effectively address the anticipated mental health impacts of climate change.
Keywords: climate change disasters extreme weather mental health preparedness psychological distress resilience

Why Have Food Commodity Prices Risen Again? - Trostle, R.; Marti, D.; Rosen, S.; Westcott, P. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 2011)

Drought risk management in the Caribbean community: Early warning information and other risk reduction considerations - Trotman, Adrian; Joyette, Antonio; Van Meerbeeck, Cedric; Mahon, Roche; Cox, Shelly-Ann; Cave, Neisha; Farrell, David (Drought and Water Crises: Integrating Science, Management, and Policy, 2017)

A 1500-year reconstruction of annual mean temperature for temperate North America on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales - Trouet, V.; Diaz, H. F.; Wahl, E. R.; Viau, A. E.; Graham, R.; Graham, N.; Cook, E. R. (Environmental Research Letters, 2013)
We present two reconstructions of annual average temperature over temperate North America: a tree-ring based reconstruction at decadal resolution (1200–1980 CE) and a pollen-based reconstruction at 30 year resolution that extends back to 480 CE. We maximized reconstruction length by using long but low-resolution pollen records and applied a three-tier calibration scheme for this purpose. The tree-ring-based reconstruction was calibrated against instrumental annual average temperatures on annual and decadal scale, it was then reduced to a lower resolution, and was used as a calibration target for the pollen-based reconstruction. Before the late-19th to the early-21st century, there are three prominent low-frequency periods in our extended reconstruction starting at 480 CE, notably the Dark Ages cool period (about 500–700 CE) and Little Ice Age (about 1200–1900 CE), and the warmer medieval climate anomaly (MCA; about 750–1100 CE). The 9th and the 11th century are the warmest centuries and they constitute the core of the MCA in our reconstruction, a period characterized by centennial-scale aridity in the North American West. These two warm peaks are slightly warmer than the baseline period (1904–1980), but nevertheless much cooler than temperate North American temperatures during the early-21st century.

Water productivity of maize in the US high plains - Trout, Thomas J.; DeJonge, Kendall C. (Irrigation Science, 2017)
Maize water production functions measured in a 4-year field trial in the US central high plains were curvilinear with 2.0 kg m−3 water productivity at full irrigation that resulted from 12.5 Mg ha−1 grain yields with 630 mm of crop evapotranspiration, ETc. The curvilinear functions show decreasing yield but relatively constant water productivity up to 25% ETc reduction. Water productivity declined rapidly with ETc reductions greater than 25% and was zero at about 40% of full ETc because about 270 mm of ETc was required to produce the first unit of grain yield. These results corroborate those of previous studies that show reduction in irrigated area rather than deficit irrigation will usually provide higher net returns if water consumption (ETc) is limited. Water balance techniques adequately estimated ETc when precision irrigation was carefully scheduled and seasonal precipitation was low. Water productivity relationships based on ETc are more transferable than those based on irrigation water applied.