Limacina helicina shell dissolution as an indicator of declining habitat suitability owing to ocean acidification in the California Current Ecosystem - Bednaršek, N.; Feely, R. A.; Reum, J. C. P.; Peterson, B.; Menkel, J.; Alin, S. R.; Hales, B. (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2014)

Exposure history determines pteropod vulnerability to ocean acidification along the US West Coast - Bednaršek, N.; Feely, R. A.; Tolimieri, N.; Hermann, A. J.; Siedlecki, S. A.; Waldbusser, G. G.; McElhany, P.; Alin, S. R.; Klinger, T.; Moore-Maley, B.; Pörtner, H. O. (Scientific Reports, 2017)

Pteropods on the edge: Cumulative effects of ocean acidification, warming, and deoxygenation - Bednaršek, Nina; Harvey, Chris J.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Feely, Richard A.; Možina, Jasna (Progress in Oceanography, 2016)

New ocean, new needs: Application of pteropod shell dissolution as a biological indicator for marine resource management - Bednaršek, N.; Klinger, T.; Harvey, C. J.; Weisberg, S.; McCabe, R. M.; Feely, R. A.; Newton, J.; Tolimieri, N. (Ecological Indicators, 2017)
Keywords: Ocean acidification Water quality assessment Pteropod Indicator Sentinel species Ocean acidification management

Fitness, obesity and risk of heat illness among army trainees - Bedno, S. A.; Urban, N.; Boivin, M. R.; Cowan, D. N. (Occupational Medicine, 2014)
BackgroundExertional heat illness (EHI) affects military personnel, athletes and occupational groups such as agricultural workers, despite knowledge of preventive measures.AimsTo evaluate EHI diagnoses during US Army basic training and its associations with fitness and body fat on entering military service.MethodsFrom February 2005 to September 2006, US Army recruits at six different military entrance stations took a pre-accession fitness test, including a 5-min step test scored as pass or fail. Subsequent EHI incidence and incidence rate ratios were analysed with reference to subjects’ fitness (step test performance) and whether they met (weight qualified [WQ]) or exceeded body fat (EBF) standards.ResultsAmong the 8621 WQ and 834 EBF male subjects, there were 67 incidents of EHI within 180 days of entering military service. Among WQ subjects, step test failure was significantly associated with EHI (odds ratio [OR] 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13, 3.53). For those passing the step test, the risk of EHI was significantly higher in EBF than in WQ subjects (OR 3.98, 95% CI 2.17, 7.29). Expected ORs for the joint effects of step test failure and EBF classification under additive and multiplicative models were 4.98 and 7.96, respectively. There were too few women to evaluate their data in detail.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that fitness and body fat are independently associated with incident EHI, and the effect of both was substantially higher. Those with low fitness levels and/or obesity should be evaluated further before engaging in intense physical activity, especially in warmer months.
10.1093/occmed/kqu062

Restoring salmon habitat for a changing climate - Beechie, T.; Imaki, H.; Greene, J.; Wade, A.; Wu, H.; Pess, G.; Roni, P.; Kimball, J.; Stanford, J.; Kiffney, P.; Mantua, N. (River Research and Applications, 2013)
An important question for salmon restoration efforts in the western USA is ‘How should habitat restoration plans be altered to accommodate climate change effects on stream flow and temperature?’ We developed a decision support process for adapting salmon recovery plans that incorporates (1) local habitat factors limiting salmon recovery, (2) scenarios of climate change effects on stream flow and temperature, (3) the ability of restoration actions to ameliorate climate change effects, and (4) the ability of restoration actions to increase habitat diversity and salmon population resilience. To facilitate the use of this decision support framework, we mapped scenarios of future stream flow and temperature in the Pacific Northwest region and reviewed literature on habitat restoration actions to determine whether they ameliorate a climate change effect or increase life history diversity and salmon resilience. Under the climate change scenarios considered here, summer low flows decrease by 35–75% west of the Cascade Mountains, maximum monthly flows increase by 10–60% across most of the region, and stream temperatures increase between 2 and 6°C by 2070–2099. On the basis of our literature review, we found that restoring floodplain connectivity, restoring stream flow regimes, and re‐aggrading incised channels are most likely to ameliorate stream flow and temperature changes and increase habitat diversity and population resilience. By contrast, most restoration actions focused on in‐stream rehabilitation are unlikely to ameliorate climate change effects. Finally, we illustrate how the decision support process can be used to evaluate whether climate change should alter the types or priority of restoration actions in a salmon habitat restoration plan. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change - Beever, Erik A; Hall, L Embere; Varner, Johanna; Loosen, Anne E; Dunham, Jason B; Gahl, Megan K; Smith, Felisa A; Lawler, Joshua J (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2017)
Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. However, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the limits or constraints on behavioral responses to changing conditions. Here, we characterize the contexts in which organisms respond to climate variability through behavior. First, we quantify patterns in behavioral responses across taxa with respect to timescales, climatic stimuli, life‐history traits, and ecology. Next, we identify existing knowledge gaps, research biases, and other challenges. Finally, we discuss how conservation practitioners and resource managers can incorporate an improved understanding of behavioral flexibility into natural resource management and policy decisions.

Improving conservation outcomes with a new paradigm for understanding species’ fundamental and realized adaptive capacity - Beever, Erik A.; O'Leary, John; Mengelt, Claudia; West, Jordan M.; Julius, Susan; Green, Nancy; Magness, Dawn; Petes, Laura; Stein, Bruce; Nicotra, Adrienne B.; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Robertson, Amanda L.; et al. (Conservation Letters, 2016)
Keywords: Climate adaptation climate change conservation management fundamental adaptive capacity policy-relevant research questions realized adaptive capacity vulnerability assessment

Pika (Ochotona princeps) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region - Beever, Erik A.; Perrine, John D.; Rickman, Tom; Flores, Mary; Clark, John P.; Waters, Cassie; Weber, Shana S.; Yardley, Braden; Thoma, David; Chesley-Preston, Tara; Goehring, Kenneth E.; Magnuson, Michael; et al. (Journal of Mammalogy, 2016)
Although biotic responses to contemporary climate change are spatially pervasive and often reflect synergies between climate and other ecological disturbances, the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat extent for species persistence remains poorly understood. To address this shortcoming, we performed surveys for American pikas (Ochotona princeps) at > 910 locations in 3 geographic regions of western North America during 2014 and 2015, complementing earlier modern (1994–2013) and historical (1898–1990) surveys. We sought to compare extirpation rates and the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat area for pikas in a mainland-versus-islands framework. In each region, we found widespread evidence of distributional loss—local extirpations, upslope retractions, and encounter of only old sign. Locally comprehensive surveys suggest extirpation of O. princeps from 5 of 9 new sites from the hydrographic Great Basin and from 11 of 29 sites in northeastern California. Although American pikas were recorded as recently as 2011 in Zion National Park and in 2012 from Cedar Breaks National Monument in Utah, O. princeps now appears extirpated from all reported localities in both park units. Multiple logistic regressions for each region suggested that both temperature-related and water-balance-related variables estimated from DAYMET strongly explained pika persistence at sites in the Great Basin and in Utah but not in the Sierra-Cascade “mainland” portion of northeastern California. Conversely, talus-habitat area did not predict American pika persistence in the Great Basin or Utah but strongly predicted persistence in the Sierra-Cascade mainland. These results not only add new areas to our understanding of long-term trend of the American pika’s distribution, but also can inform decisions regarding allocation of conservation effort and management actions. Burgeoning research on species such as O. princeps has collectively demonstrated the heterogeneity and nuance with which climate can act on the distribution of mountain-dwelling mammals.Aunque las respuestas bióticas al cambio climático contemporáneo son espacialmente generalizadas y frecuentemente reflejan sinergias entre el clima y otros disturbios ecológicos, la importancia relativa de factores climáticos frente al área de hábitat para el mantenimiento de especies sigue siendo poco conocida. Para subsanar esta deficiencia, realizamos muestreos de la pika Americana (Ochotona princeps) en más de 910 sitios en 3 regiones geográficas del oeste de Norteamérica durante 2014 y 2015, complementando muestreos realizados en tiempos recientes (1994–2013) e históricos (1898–1990). Comparamos las tasas de extirpación para dilucidar la importancia relativa de los factores climáticos con respeto al área del hábitat disponible de las pikas bajo un marco conceptual de áreas continentales frente a zonas aisladas. En cada región, encontramos amplia evidencia en la pérdida de área de distribución - extinciones locales, desapariciones de las zonas bajas, y encuentro sólo de evidencia de ocupación pasada. Estudios localmente exhaustivos sugieren la extirpación de O. princeps en 5 de las 9 localidades nuevas muestreadas de la Gran Cuenca Hidrográfica (Great Basin), y en 11 de las 29 localidades en el noreste de California. Aunque las pikas todavía se encontraban en fechas recientes como en 2011 en el Parque Nacional Zion y en el Monumento Nacional Cedar Breaks en Utah en 2012, O. princeps ahora parece extirpada de todas las localidades donde fue encontrada anteriormente en ambos parques. Regresiones logísticas múltiples para cada región basados en factores ambientales como la temperatura y los factores relacionados con el balance del agua (ambos estimados por el DAYMET) explicaron claramente el patrón de persistencia de la pika en localidades de la Gran Cuenca y en Utah, pero no en el noreste de California, en el área “continental” de la montañas de Sierra Nevada y Cascades. Por el contrario, el hábitat de talud no p edijo la persistencia de la pika en los sitios aislados en la Gran Cuenca y en Utah, pero lo predijo significativamente en el área continental (i.e., en las montañas de Sierra Nevada y Cascades). Estos resultados incrementan el conocimiento sobre la distribución histórica y la tendencia a largo plazo de la pika Americana. Este conocimiento también puede ayudar en la toma de decisiones sobre las prioridades en las acciones en conservación y manejo. El avance en conjunto en investigaciones de especies como O. princeps ha demostrado la heterogeneidad y la forma con que el clima actúa de diferente manera sobre la distribución de los mamíferos de montaña.
10.1093/jmammal/gyw128

The magnitude and origin of groundwater discharge to eastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico coastal waters - Befus, Kevin M.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Smith, Christopher G.; Swarzenski, Peter W. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Fresh groundwater discharge to coastal environments contributes to the physical and chemical conditions of coastal waters, but the role of coastal groundwater at regional to continental scales remains poorly defined due to diverse hydrologic conditions and the difficulty of tracking coastal groundwater flow paths through heterogeneous subsurface materials. We use three‐dimensional groundwater flow models for the first time to calculate the magnitude and source areas of groundwater discharge from unconfined aquifers to coastal waterbodies along the entire eastern U.S. We find that 27.1 km3/yr (22.8–30.5 km3/yr) of groundwater directly enters eastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico coastal waters. The contributing recharge areas comprised ~175,000 km2 of U.S. land area, extending several kilometers inland. This result provides new information on the land area that can supply natural and anthropogenic constituents to coastal waters via groundwater discharge, thereby defining the subterranean domain potentially affecting coastal chemical budgets and ecosystem processes.

Impacts of climate change on aeroallergens: Past and future - Beggs, P. J. (Clinical & Experimental Allergy, 2004)
Ch3,6,7

Impacts of Climate Change on Allergens and Allergic Diseases - Beggs, Paul J. (Cambridge University Press, 2016)
Climate change has been identified as the biggest global health threat of the twenty-first century. Hundreds of millions of people around the world currently suffer from allergic diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis (hay fever), and the prevalence of these diseases is increasing. This book is the first authoritative and comprehensive assessment of the many impacts of climate change on allergens, such as pollen and mould spores, and allergic diseases. The international authorship team of leaders in this field explore the topic to a breadth and depth far beyond any previous work. This book will be of value to anyone with an interest in climate change, environmental allergens, and related allergic diseases. It is written at a level that is accessible for those working in related physical, biological, and health and medical sciences, including researchers, academics, clinicians, and advanced students.

Building resiliency in response to sea level rise and recurrent flooding: Comprehensive planning in Hampton Roads - Behr, Joshua G.; Diaz, Rafael; Mitchell, Molly (The Virginia News Letter, 2016)

Role of polar amplification in long-term surface air temperature variations and modern Arctic warming - Bekryaev, Roman V.; Polyakov, Igor V.; Alexeev, Vladimir A. (Journal of Climate, 2010)
This study uses an extensive dataset of monthly surface air temperature (SAT) records (including previously unutilized) from high-latitude (>60°N) meteorological land stations. Most records have been updated by very recent observations (up to December 2008). Using these data, a high-latitude warming rate of 1.36°C century−1 is documented for 1875–2008—the trend is almost 2 times stronger than the Northern Hemisphere trend (0.79°C century−1), with an accelerated warming rate in the most recent decade (1.35°C decade−1). Stronger warming in high-latitude regions is a manifestation of polar amplification (PA). Changes in SAT suggest two spatial scales of PA—hemispheric and local. A new stable statistical measure of PA linking high-latitude and hemispheric temperature anomalies via a regression relationship is proposed. For 1875–2008, this measure yields PA of ∼1.62. Local PA related to the ice–albedo feedback mechanisms is autumnal and coastal, extending several hundred kilometers inland. Heat budget estimates suggest that a recent reduction of arctic ice and anomalously high SATs cannot be explained by ice–albedo feedback mechanisms alone, and the role of large-scale mechanisms of PA of global warming should not be overlooked.
Keywords: Arctic,Temperature,Albedo,Sea ice,Radiative forcing

Chapter 5.2: Sea surface temperature trends in large marine ecosystems - Belkin, Igor (Large Marine Ecosystems: Status and Trends, 2016)

Opportunities for improved promotion of ecosystem services in agriculture under the Water-Energy-Food Nexus - Bell, Andrew; Matthews, Nathanial; Zhang, Wei (Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 2016)
In this study, we focus on water quality as a vehicle to illustrate the role that the water, energy, and food (WEF) Nexus perspective may have in promoting ecosystem services in agriculture. The mediation of water quality by terrestrial systems is a key ecosystem service for a range of actors (municipalities, fishers, industries, and energy providers) and is reshaped radically by agricultural activity. To address these impacts, many programs exist to promote improved land-use practices in agriculture; however, where these practices incur a cost or other burden to the farmer, adoption can be low unless some form of incentive is provided (as in a payment for ecosystem services (PES) program). Provision of such incentives can be a challenge to sustain in the long term, if there is not a clear beneficiary or other actor willing to provide them. Successfully closing the loop between impacts and incentives often requires identifying a measurable and valuable service with a clear central beneficiary that is impacted by the summative effects of the diffuse agricultural practices across the landscape. Drawing on cases from our own research, we demonstrate how the WEF Nexus perspective—by integrating non-point-source agricultural problems under well-defined energy issues—can highlight central beneficiaries of improved agricultural practice, where none may have existed otherwise.

Mountain landscapes offer few opportunities for high-elevation tree species migration - Bell, David M.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K. (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Keywords: climate change demography dominance forest inventory and analysis productivity suitability tree species upslope migration

Building Climate-Resilient Food Systems for Pacific Islands - Bell, Johann; Taylor, Mary (WorldFish, 2015)
Keywords: Adaptation policy marine ecosystems terrestrial ecosystems impact fisheries agriculture

Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change - Bell, Johann D.; Ganachaud, Alexandre; Gehrke, Peter C.; Griffiths, Shane P.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Johnson, Johanna E.; Le Borgne, Robert; Lehodey, Patrick; Lough, Janice M.; Matear, Richard J.; Pickering, Timothy D.; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)
Pacific Island countries have an extraordinary dependence on fisheries and aquaculture. Maintaining the benefits from the sector is a difficult task, now made more complex by climate change. Here we report how changes to the atmosphere–ocean are likely to affect the food webs, habitats and stocks underpinning fisheries and aquaculture across the region. We found winners and losers—tuna are expected to be more abundant in the east and freshwater aquaculture and fisheries are likely to be more productive. Conversely, coral reef fisheries could decrease by 20% by 2050 and coastal aquaculture may be less efficient. We demonstrate how the economic and social implications can be addressed within the sector—tuna and freshwater aquaculture can help support growing populations as coral reefs, coastal fisheries and mariculture decline.
Keywords: Ecosystems coral reefs Adaptation marine ecosystems fisheries Resilience freshwater ecosystems ocean and marine resources Freshwater ecology

Ch. 4: Impacts of extreme events on human health - Bell, Jesse E.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Adrianopoli, Carl; Benedict, Kaitlin; Conlon, Kathryn; Escobar, Vanessa; Hess, Jeremy; Luvall, Jeffrey; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; Quattrochi, Dale; Runkle, Jennifer; et al. (The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, 2016)

Effect modification by community characteristics on the short-term effects of ozone exposure and mortality in 98 US communities - Bell, Michelle L.; Dominici, Francesca (American Journal of Epidemiology, 2008)
Previous research provided evidence of an association between short-term exposure to ozone and mortality risk and of heterogeneity in the risk across communities. The authors investigated whether this heterogeneity can be explained by community-specific characteristics: race, income, education, urbanization, transportation use, particulate matter and ozone levels, number of ozone monitors, weather, and use of air conditioning. Their study included data on 98 US urban communities for 1987 to 2000 from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study; US Census; and American Housing Survey. On average across the communities, a 10-ppb increase in the previous week's ozone level was associated with a 0.52% (95% posterior interval: 0.28, 0.77) increase in mortality. The authors found that community-level characteristics modify the relation between ozone and mortality. Higher effect estimates were associated with higher unemployment, fraction of the Black/African-American population, and public transportation use and with lower temperatures or prevalence of central air conditioning. These differences may relate to underlying health status, differences in exposure, or other factors. Results show that some segments of the population may face higher health burdens of ozone pollution.
10.1093/aje/kwm396

Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities - Bell, M.L.; Goldberg, R.; Hogrefe, C.; Kinney, P.L.; Knowlton, K.; Lynn, B.; Rosenthal, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Patz, J.A. (Climatic Change, 2007)

Ozone and short-term mortality in 95 US urban communities, 1987-2000 - Bell, Michelle L.; McDermott, Aidan; Zeger, Scott L.; Samet, Jonathan M.; Dominici, Francesca (JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association, 2004)
Context  Ozone has been associated with various adverse health effects, including increased rates of hospital admissions and exacerbation of respiratory illnesses. Although numerous time-series studies have estimated associations between day-to-day variation in ozone levels and mortality counts, results have been inconclusive.Objective  To investigate whether short-term (daily and weekly) exposure to ambient ozone is associated with mortality in the United States.Design and Setting  Using analytical methods and databases developed for the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study, we estimated a national average relative rate of mortality associated with short-term exposure to ambient ozone for 95 large US urban communities from 1987-2000. We used distributed-lag models for estimating community-specific relative rates of mortality adjusted for time-varying confounders (particulate matter, weather, seasonality, and long-term trends) and hierarchical models for combining relative rates across communities to estimate a national average relative rate, taking into account spatial heterogeneity.Main Outcome Measure  Daily counts of total non–injury-related mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in 95 large US communities during a 14-year period.Results  A 10-ppb increase in the previous week’s ozone was associated with a 0.52% increase in daily mortality (95% posterior interval [PI], 0.27%-0.77%) and a 0.64% increase in cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (95% PI, 0.31%-0.98%). Effect estimates for aggregate ozone during the previous week were larger than for models considering only a single day’s exposure. Results were robust to adjustment for particulate matter, weather, seasonality, and long-term trends.Conclusions  These results indicate a statistically significant association between short-term changes in ozone and mortality on average for 95 large US urban communities, which include about 40% of the total US population. The findings indicate that this widespread pollutant adversely affects public health.

Externally driven changes in the abundance of summer and winter flounder - Bell, Richard J.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Manderson, John P.; Richardson, David E. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2014)
Marine organisms that utilize nearshore environments for major components of their life histories are subject to both local-scale forcing such as water quality and estuarine degradation as well as large-scale forcing such as fishing and decadal-scale climate variability. Large-scale forcing has the potential to synchronize the dynamics of subpopulations, while local-level forcing can produce asynchronous subpopulation trends. Summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) are important commercial and recreational flatfish along the east coast of North America which spend their first year of life in coastal habitats. We found that the two exhibited significant within-species coherence in commercial landings and fisheries-independent surveys across the northeast shelf of the United States, suggesting large-scale external drivers. In laboratory studies, temperature has been found to be an important factor regulating survival during the egg, larva and settlement phases of both species. We reconstructed a 40-year time-series of coastal water temperature for the major spawning and nursery areas to examine changes in the thermally available habitat. Estimates of winter flounder abundance were negatively correlated with the winter water temperature, but not with fishing mortality. Summer flounder abundance, by contrast, was negatively correlated with fishing mortality, but exhibited no link with temperature. In addition, time-varying stock–recruitment relationships indicated that stock productivity declined for winter flounder over time, while summer flounder productivity has varied without a trend. While both species declined in the 1980s and early 1990s due to heavy fishing pressure, the reduction in fishing over the last two decades has led to rebuilding of the summer flounder stock and an expansion of its age structure. Declining productivity due to warming estuarine conditions has kept the winter flounder stock at low levels despite low fishing pressure. The two stocks illustrate the importance of controlling fishing mortality in the management of natural marine resources while also accounting for changes in productivity due to climate variability and change.
10.1093/icesjms/fsu069

Disentangling the effects of climate, abundance, and size on the distribution of marine fish: An example based on four stocks from the Northeast US shelf - Bell, Richard J.; Richardson, David E.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Lynch, Patrick D.; Fratantoni, Paula S. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2015)
Climate change and fishing can have major impacts on the distribution of natural marine resources. Climate change alters the distribution of suitable habitat, forcing organisms to shift their range or attempt to survive under suboptimal conditions. Fishing reduces the abundance of marine populations and truncates their age structure leading to range contractions or shifts. Along the east coast of the United States, there have been major changes in fish populations due to the impacts of fishing and subsequent regulations, as well as changes in the climate. Black sea bass, scup, summer flounder, and winter flounder are important commercial and recreational species, which utilize inshore and offshore waters on the northeast shelf. We examined the distributions of the four species with the Northeast Fisheries Science Center trawl surveys to determine if the along-shelf centres of biomass had changed over time and if the changes were attributed to changes in temperature or fishing pressure through changes in abundance and length structure. Black sea bass, scup, and summer flounder exhibited significant poleward shifts in distributions in at least one season while the Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Bight stock of winter flounder did not shift. Generalized additive modelling indicated that the changes in the centres of biomass for black sea bass and scup in spring were related to climate, while the change in the distribution of summer flounder was largely attributed to a decrease in fishing pressure and an expansion of the length–age structure. While the changes in ocean temperatures will have major impacts on the distribution of marine taxa, the effects of fishing can be of equivalent magnitude and on a more immediate time scale. It is important for management to take all factors into consideration when developing regulations for natural marine resources.
10.1093/icesjms/fsu217

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity - Bellard, Céline; Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck (Ecology Letters, 2012)
Keywords: Biodiversity climate change species extinctions

Carbon sequestration: Managing forests in uncertain times - Bellassen, Valentin; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan (Nature, 2014)

Multi-century evaluation of Sierra Nevada snowpack - Belmecheri, Soumaya; Babst, Flurin; Wahl, Eugene R.; Stahle, David W.; Trouet, Valerie (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Impacts of increasing temperature on the future incidence of West Nile neuroinvasive disease in the United States - Belova, Anna; Mills, David; Hall, Ronald; Juliana, Alexis St.; Crimmins, Allison; Barker, Chris; Jones, Russell (American Journal of Climate Change, 2017)

Tribes in New England stand their ground - Benally, Suzanne (Cultural Survival Quarterly, 2014)

Effects of global warming on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea–North Sea transition zone - Bendtsen, Jørgen; Hansen, Jørgen L. S. (Ecological Modelling, 2013)
Keywords: Hypoxia Climate change Baltic Sea Respiration

Larger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide - Bennett, Amy C.; McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J. (Nature Plants, 2015)

Historical trends and extremes in boreal Alaska river basins - Bennett, K. E.; Cannon, A. J.; Hinzman, L. (Journal of Hydrology, 2015)
Keywords: Extreme events Streamflow Trends GEV Boreal Alaska

Ch. 12: Indigenous peoples, lands, and resources - Bennett, T.M. Bull; Maynard, Nancy G.; Cochran, Patricia; Gough, Robert; Lynn, Kathy; Maldonado, Julie; Voggesser, Garrit; Wotkyns, Susan; Cozzetto, Karen (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Melting ice, growing trade? - Bensassi, Sami; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada; Barrett, Andrew P. (Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2016)

Bark Beetle Outbreaks in Western North America: Causes and Consequences - Bentz, Barbara; Logan, Jesse; MacMahon, Jim; Allen, Craig D.; Ayres, Matt; Berg, Ed; Carroll, Allan; Hansen, Matt; Hicke, Jeff; Joyce, Linda; Macfarlane, Wallace; Munson, Steve; et al. (University of Utah Press (for USFS), 2009)

Chapter 13: Modeling bark beetle responses to climate change - Bentz, Barbara J.; Jönsson, Anna Maria (Bark Beetles: Biology and Ecology of Native and Invasive Species, 2015)
Keywords: bark beetles climate change Dendroctonus development time global warming Hylobius Hypothenemus Ips model temperature

Climate change and bark beetles of the Western United States and Canada: Direct and indirect effects - Bentz, B. J.; Régnière, J.; Fettig, C. J.; Hansen, E. M.; Hayes, J. L.; Hicke, J. A.; Kelsey, R. G.; Negrón, J. F.; Seybold, S. J. (BioScience, 2010)
Keywords: cold tolerance; mountain pine beetle; seasonality; spruce beetle; temperature; mountain pine-beetle; spruce beetles; dendroctonus-ponderosae; intermountain west; forest ecosystems; cold-hardiness; north-america; coleoptera; temperature; scolytidae

Climate change vulnerability in the food, energy, and water nexus: Concerns for agricultural production in Arizona and its urban export supply - Berardy, Andrew; Chester, Mikhail V. (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
Interdependent systems providing water and energy services are necessary for agriculture. Climate change and increased resource demands are expected to cause frequent and severe strains on these systems. Arizona is especially vulnerable to such strains due to its hot and arid climate. However, its climate enables year-round agricultural production, allowing Arizona to supply most of the country’s winter lettuce and vegetables. In addition to Phoenix and Tucson, cities including El Paso, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and San Diego rely on Arizona for several types of agricultural products such as animal feed and livestock, meaning that disruptions to Arizona’s agriculture also disrupt food supply chains to at least six major cities. Arizona’s predominately irrigated agriculture relies on water imported through an energy intensive process from water-stressed regions. Most irrigation in Arizona is electricity powered, so failures in energy or water systems can cascade to the food system, creating a food-energy-water (FEW) nexus of vulnerability. We construct a dynamic simulation model of the FEW nexus in Arizona to assess the potential impacts of increasing temperatures and disruptions to energy and water supplies on crop irrigation requirements, on-farm energy use, and yield. We use this model to identify critical points of intersection between energy, water, and agricultural systems and quantify expected increases in resource use and yield loss. Our model is based on threshold temperatures of crops, USDA and US Geological Survey data, Arizona crop budgets, and region-specific literature. We predict that temperature increase above the baseline could decrease yields by up to 12.2% per 1 °C for major Arizona crops and require increased irrigation of about 2.6% per 1 °C. Response to drought varies widely based on crop and phenophase, so we estimate irrigation interruption effects through scenario analysis. We provide an overview of potential adaptation measures farmers can take, and barriers to implementation.

Multiyear drought-induced morbidity preceding tree death in southeastern U.S. forests - Berdanier, Aaron B.; Clark, James S. (Ecological Applications, 2016)
Keywords: adaptive management drought forest long-term data morbidity mortality Piedmont Plateau, North Carolina, USA southern Appalachian Mountains, North Carolina, USA tree

Adapt or disperse: Understanding species persistence in a changing world - Berg, Matty P.; Kiers, E. Toby; Driessen, Gerard; Van Der Heijden, Marcel; Kooi, Bob W.; Kuenen, Frans; Liefting, Maartje; Verhoef, Herman A.; Ellers, Jacintha (Global Change Biology, 2010)
Keywords: adaptation climate change dispersal interaction network phenotypic plasticity species interaction temperature thermal reaction norm warming

Increased interannual precipitation extremes over California under climate change - Berg, Neil; Hall, Alex (Journal of Climate, 2015)
Changes to mean and extreme wet season precipitation over California on interannual time scales are analyzed using twenty-first-century precipitation data from 34 global climate models. Models disagree on the sign of projected changes in mean precipitation, although in most models the change is very small compared to historical and simulated levels of interannual variability. For the 2020/21–2059/60 period, there is no projected increase in the frequency of extremely dry wet seasons in the ensemble mean. Wet extremes are found to increase to around 2 times the historical frequency, which is statistically significant at the 95% level. Stronger signals emerge in the 2060/61–2099/2100 period. Across all models, extremely dry wet seasons are roughly 1.5 to 2 times more common, and wet extremes generally triple in their historical frequency (statistically significant). Large increases in precipitation variability in most models account for the modest increases to dry extremes. Increases in the frequency of wet extremes can be ascribed to equal contributions from increased variability and increases to the mean. These increases in the frequency of interannual precipitation extremes will create severe water management problems in a region where coping with large interannual variability in precipitation is already a challenge. Evidence from models and observations is examined to understand the causes of the low precipitation associated with the 2013/14 drought in California. These lines of evidence all strongly indicate that the low 2013/14 wet season precipitation total can be very likely attributed to natural variability, in spite of the projected future changes in extremes.

Anthropogenic warming impacts on California snowpack during drought - Berg, Neil; Hall, Alex (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: drought snowpack warming water resources Sierra Nevada 1637 Regional climate change

Status of the Pacific Hake (whiting) stock in U.S. and Canadian waters in 2017 - Berger, Aaron M.; Grandin, Chris J.; Taylor, Ian G.; Edwards, Aandrew M.; Cox, Sean (National Marine Fisheries Service and Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 2017)

Dominant flood generating mechanisms across the United States - Berghuijs, Wouter R.; Woods, Ross A.; Hutton, Christopher J.; Sivapalan, M. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: flood hydroclimatology precipitation soil moisture seasonality snow 1821 Floods 1817 Extreme events 1833 Hydroclimatology 1804 Catchment 1854 Precipitation

Assessing adaptation strategies for extreme heat: A public health evaluation of cooling centers in Maricopa County, Arizona - Berisha, Vjollca; Hondula, David; Roach, Matthew; White, Jessica R.; McKinney, Benita; Bentz, Darcie; Mohamed, Ahmed; Uebelherr, Joshua; Goodin, Kate (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2017)
Preventing heat-associated morbidity and mortality is a public health priority in Maricopa County, Arizona (United States). The objective of this project was to evaluate Maricopa County cooling centers and gain insight into their capacity to provide relief for the public during extreme heat events. During the summer of 2014, 53 cooling centers were evaluated to assess facility and visitor characteristics. Maricopa County staff collected data by directly observing daily operations and by surveying managers and visitors. The cooling centers in Maricopa County were often housed within community, senior, or religious centers, which offered various services for at least 1500 individuals daily. Many visitors were unemployed and/or homeless. Many learned about a cooling center by word of mouth or by having seen the cooling center’s location. The cooling centers provide a valuable service and reach some of the region’s most vulnerable populations. This project is among the first to systematically evaluate cooling centers from a public health perspective and provides helpful insight to community leaders who are implementing or improving their own network of cooling centers.
Keywords: Climate change,Emergency preparedness,Societal impacts

State of Oregon: Public Health Modernization Assessment Report - Berk Consulting (Berk Consulting, 2016)

Public risks and the challenges to climate-change adaptation: A proposed framework for planning in the age of uncertainty - Berke, Philip; Lyles, Ward (Cityscape, 2013)

Planning for resiliency: Evaluation of state hazard mitigation plans under the disaster mitigation act - Berke, Philip; Smith, Gavin; Lyles, Ward (Natural Hazards Review, 2012)
State mitigation plans play a critical role in supporting disaster loss reduction and long-term resiliency of human communities. The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 requires all states to prepare mitigation plans. Based on six principles of plan quality, we content analyzed a sample of 30 coastal state plans to determine how well they support mitigation. Findings indicate that although plans scored moderate to low for all plan quality principles, plan quality has modestly improved over the past decade. In addition, some states scored low for one principle, which can undermine implementation of otherwise high-scoring plans for the remaining principles. Recommendations are offered on how plan quality evaluation can be used to guide and monitor state development of hazard mitigation plans.

Indigenous ways of knowing and the study of environmental change - Berkes, Fikret (Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 2009)

Drought and the risk of hospital admissions and mortality in older adults in western USA from 2000 to 2013: A retrospective study - Berman, Jesse D.; Ebisu, Keita; Peng, Roger D.; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L. (The Lancet Planetary Health, 2017)

Long-term conditioning to elevated pCO2 and warming influences the fatty and amino acid composition of the diatom Cylindrotheca fusiformis - Bermúdez, Rafael; Feng, Yuanyuan; Roleda, Michael Y.; Tatters, Avery O.; Hutchins, David A.; Larsen, Thomas; Boyd, Philip W.; Hurd, Catriona L.; Riebesell, Ulf; Winder, Monika (PLOS ONE, 2015)
The unabated rise in anthropogenic CO₂ emissions is predicted to strongly influence the ocean’s environment, increasing the mean sea-surface temperature by 4°C and causing a pH decline of 0.3 units by the year 2100. These changes are likely to affect the nutritional value of marine food sources since temperature and CO₂ can influence the fatty (FA) and amino acid (AA) composition of marine primary producers. Here, essential amino (EA) and polyunsaturated fatty (PUFA) acids are of particular importance due to their nutritional value to higher trophic levels. In order to determine the interactive effects of CO₂ and temperature on the nutritional quality of a primary producer, we analyzed the relative PUFA and EA composition of the diatom Cylindrotheca fusiformis cultured under a factorial matrix of 2 temperatures (14 and 19°C) and 3 partial pressures of CO₂ (180, 380, 750 μatm) for >250 generations. Our results show a decay of ~3% and ~6% in PUFA and EA content in algae kept at a pCO₂ of 750 μatm (high) compared to the 380 μatm (intermediate) CO₂ treatments at 14°C. Cultures kept at 19°C displayed a ~3% lower PUFA content under high compared to intermediate pCO₂, while EA did not show differences between treatments. Algae grown at a pCO₂ of 180 μatm (low) had a lower PUFA and AA content in relation to those at intermediate and high CO₂ levels at 14°C, but there were no differences in EA at 19°C for any CO₂ treatment. This study is the first to report adverse effects of warming and acidification on the EA of a primary producer, and corroborates previous observations of negative effects of these stressors on PUFA. Considering that only ~20% of essential biomolecules such as PUFA (and possibly EA) are incorporated into new biomass at the next trophic level, the potential impacts of adverse effects of ocean warming and acidification at the base of the food web may be amplified towards higher trophic levels, which rely on them as source of essential biomolecules.

Cooler temperatures favour growth of wild leek (Allium tricoccum), a deciduous forest spring ephemeral - Bernatchez, Antoine; Lapointe, Line (Botany, 2012)

Tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest during a hot and dry decade in the western United States (2003–2012) - Berner, Logan T.; Law, Beverly E.; Meddens, Arjan J. H.; Hicke, Jeffrey A. (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
High temperatures and severe drought contributed to extensive tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during the 2000s in parts of the western continental United States. Several states in this region have greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets and would benefit from information on the amount of carbon stored in tree biomass killed by disturbance. We quantified mean annual tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest from 2003–2012 for each state in this region. We estimated tree mortality from fires and beetles using tree aboveground carbon (AGC) stock and disturbance data sets derived largely from remote sensing. We quantified tree mortality from harvest using data from US Forest Service reports. In both cases, we used Monte Carlo analyses to track uncertainty associated with parameter error and temporal variability. Regional tree mortality from harvest, beetles, and fires (MORT H+B+F ) together averaged 45.8 ± 16.0 Tg AGC yr −1 (±95% confidence interval), indicating a mortality rate of 1.10 ± 0.38% yr −1 . Harvest accounted for the largest percentage of MORT H+B+F (∼50%), followed by beetles (∼32%), and fires (∼18%). Tree mortality from harvest was concentrated in Washington and Oregon, where harvest accounted for ∼80% of MORT H+B+F in each state. Tree mortality from beetles occurred widely at low levels across the region, yet beetles had pronounced impacts in Colorado and Montana, where they accounted for ∼80% of MORT H+B+F . Tree mortality from fires was highest in California, though fires accounted for the largest percentage of MORT H+B+F in Arizona and New Mexico (∼50%). Drought and human activities shaped regional variation in tree mortality, highlighting opportunities and challenges to managing GHG emissions from forests. Rising temperatures and greater risk of drought will likely increase tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during coming decades in this region. Thus, sustained monitoring and mapping of tree mortality is necessary to inform forest and GHG management.

Systematic review approaches for climate change adaptation research - Berrang-Ford, Lea; Pearce, Tristan; Ford, James D. (Regional Environmental Change, 2015)
Recent controversy has led to calls for increased standardization and transparency in the methods used to synthesize climate change research. Though these debates have focused largely on the biophysical dimensions of climate change, human dimensions research is equally in need of improved methodological approaches for research synthesis. Systematic review approaches, and more recently realist review methods, have been used within the health sciences for decades to guide research synthesis. Despite this, penetration of these approaches into the social and environmental sciences has been limited. Here, we present an analysis of approaches for systematic review and research synthesis and examine their applicability in an adaptation context. Customized review frameworks informed by systematic approaches to research synthesis provide a conceptually appropriate and practical opportunity for increasing methodological transparency and rigor in synthesizing and tracking adaptation research. This review highlights innovative applications of systematic approaches, with a focus on the unique challenges of integrating multiple data sources and formats in reviewing climate change adaptation policy and practice. We present guidelines, key considerations, and recommendations for systematic review in the social sciences in general and adaptation research in particular. We conclude by calling for increased conceptual and methodological development of systematic review approaches to address the methodological challenges of synthesizing and tracking adaptation to climate change.

Contribution of Alaskan glaciers to sea-level rise derived from satellite imagery - Berthier, E.; Schiefer, E.; Clarke, G.K.C.; Menounos, B.; Rémy, F. (Nature Geoscience, 2010)
Over the past 50 years, retreating glaciers and ice caps contributed 0:5mmyr⬚⬚1 to sea-level rise1, and one third of this contribution is believed to come from ice masses bordering the Gulf of Alaska2,3. However, these estimates of ice loss in Alaska are based on measurements of a limited number of glaciers that are extrapolated to constrain ice wastage in the many thousands of others. Uncertainties in these estimates arise, for example, from the complex pattern of decadal elevation changes at the scale of individual glaciers and mountain ranges4–7. Here we combine a comprehensive glacier inventory with elevation changes derived from sequential digital elevation models. We find that between 1962 and 2006, Alaskan glaciers lost 41:9⬚8:6 km3 yr⬚⬚1 of water, and contributed 0:12 ⬚ 0:02mmyr⬚⬚1 to sea-level rise, 34% less than estimated earlier2,3. Reasons for our lower values include the higher spatial resolution of our glacier inventory as well as the reduction of ice thinning underneath debris and at the glacier margins, which were not resolved in earlier work. We suggest that estimates of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps in other mountain regions could be subject to similar revisions.
Keywords: Climate Data; climate science; cryosphere; glaciers

Rain-Related Impacts on Selected Transportation Activities and Utility Services in the Chicago Area - Bertness, Jan (Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1980)
An intensive meteorological study of summer precipitation in the Chicago area during 1976–78 furnished detailed data needed to perform a study of the impacts of rain on selected transportation-related activities and on certain utility services. Degree of effect on these activities was studied on a rain day versus non-rain day basis and further on a land use basis to help infer changes in impacts due to urban-influenced increases in rain occurrences, rainfall amounts and storm activity. Added rain resulted in over 100% more vehicle accidents, particularly in the urban area, but the accident severity associated with rain was greater in the rural areas. Rainfall decreased ridership of mass transit systems by 3–5% and apparently this was disproportionately due to midday discretionary riders such as shoppers. Little relationship of rain to pleasure boat emergencies was found but more rain decreased usage of pleasure boats. The number of delays in flight departures from O'Hare Airport was highly related to rain, increasing from only 0.3% of all flights delayed on non-rain days to 18.2&percnt delayed on heavy (≥1.3 cm) rain days. The percentage of the total electrical power outage time which was due to storms varied greatly by power district, ranging from 33% to over 80%. In general, downtown Chicago experienced less time without power due to storms, than did suburban areas. Telephone service was unaffected by rain conditions in Chicago but usage was increased. The results of these selected impacts indicate that an urban-related increase in summer rainfall will lead to certain undesirable impacts on those traveling, particularly by auto or air.

Human health: Impacts and adaptation - Bethel, Jeffrey; Ranzoni, Steven; Capalbo, Susan M. (Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, And Communities, 2013)

Heat-related illness among Oregon farmworkers - Bethel, Jeffrey W.; Harger, Renee (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2014)

Hydration and cooling practices among farmworkers in Oregon and Washington - Bethel, Jeffrey W.; Spector, June T.; Krenz, Jennifer (Journal of Agromedicine, 2017)

Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways - Betts, R. A.; Golding, N.; Gonzalez, P.; Gornall, J.; Kahana, R.; Kay, G.; Mitchell, L.; Wiltshire, A. (Biogeosciences, 2015)
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Genomic innovation for crop improvement - Bevan, Michael W.; Uauy, Cristobal; Wulff, Brande B. H.; Zhou, Ji; Krasileva, Ksenia; Clark, Matthew D. (Nature, 2017)

How resource phenology affects consumer population dynamics - Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R. Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F. (The American Naturalist, 2016)
Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.
Keywords: phenology mismatch,consumer-resource dynamics,recursion relationship,nonautonomous ordinary differential equation,Zonneveld equation,chaos

Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model - Bhardwaj, Amit; Misra, Vasubandhu; Mishra, Akhilesh; Wootten, Adrienne; Boyles, Ryan; Bowden, J. H.; Terando, Adam J. (Climatic Change, 2018)
We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). At this resolution, the climate change experiment allows for deep convection in model integrations, which is an important consideration for sub-tropical regions in general, and on islands with steep precipitation gradients in particular that strongly influence local ecological processes and the provision of ecosystem services. Projected precipitation change for this region of the Caribbean is simulated for the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 climate-forcing scenario relative to the late twentieth century (1986–2005). The results show that by the mid-twenty-first century, there is an overall rainfall reduction over the island for all seasons compared to the recent climate but with diminished mid-summer drought (MSD) in the northwestern parts of the island. Importantly, extreme rainfall events on sub-daily and daily time scales also become slightly less frequent in the projected mid-twenty-first-century climate over most regions of the island.

Historical reconstruction of mangrove expansion in the Gulf of Mexico: Linking climate change with carbon sequestration in coastal wetlands - Bianchi, Thomas S.; Allison, Mead A.; Zhao, Jun; Li, Xinxin; Comeaux, Rebecca S.; Feagin, Rusty A.; Kulawardhana, R. Wasantha (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2013)
Keywords: coastal wetlands climate change carbon sequestration biomarkers Gulf of Mexico

The science of hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: A review - Bianchi, T. S.; DiMarco, S. F.; Cowan, J. H.; Hetland, R. D.; Chapman, P.; Day, J. W.; Allison, M. A. (Science of the Total Environment, 2010)
Keywords: Hypoxia Gulf of Mexico Management policy

Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf Coast and Caribbean - Biasutti, Michela; Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Creyts, Timothy T. (Climatic Change, 2012)
As the global climate warms due to increasing greenhouse gases, the regional climate of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean region will also change. This study presents the latest estimates of the expected changes in temperature, precipitation, tropical cyclone activity, and sea level. Changes in temperature and precipitation are derived from climate model simulations produced for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), by comparing projections for the mid- and late-21st century to the late 20th century and assuming a “middle-of-the-road” scenario for future greenhouse gas emissions. Regional simulations from the North America Regional Climate Change Program (NARCCAP) are used to corroborate the IPCC AR4 rainfall projections over the US portion of the domain. Changes in tropical cyclones and sea level are more uncertain, and our understanding of these variables has changed more since IPCC AR4 than in the case of temperature and precipitation. For these quantities, the current state of knowledge is described based on the recent peer-reviewed literature.

A holistic framework for identifying human wellbeing indicators for marine policy - Biedenweg, Kelly; Stiles, Kari; Wellman, Katharine (Marine Policy, 2016)
Keywords: Human wellbeing Ecosystem-based management Social indicators

Innovative Tools, Methods, and Analysis: Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change, Part 3 - Biehl, Peter F.; Crate, Susan; Gardezi, Maaz; Hamilton, Lawrence; Harlan, Sharon L.; Hritz, Carrie; Hubbell, Bryan; Kohler, Timothy A.; Peterson, Nicole; Silva, Julie (USGCRP, 2018)

Climate change and allergic disease - Bielory, L.; Lyons, K.; Goldberg, R. (Current Allergy and Asthma Reports, 2012)
Allergies are prevalent throughout the United States and impose a substantial quality of life and economic burden. The potential effect of climate change has an impact on allergic disorders through variability of aeroallergens, food allergens and insect-based allergic venoms. Data suggest allergies (ocular and nasal allergies, allergic asthma and sinusitis) have increased in the United States and that there are changes in allergies to stinging insect populations (vespids, apids and fire ants). The cause of this upward trend is unknown, but any climate change may induce augmentation of this trend; the subspecialty of allergy and immunology needs to be keenly aware of potential issues that are projected for the near and not so distant future.
Bielory, Leonard Lyons, Kevin Goldberg, Robert Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Review United States Curr Allergy Asthma Rep. 2012 Dec;12(6):485-94. doi: 10.1007/s11882-012-0314-z.
Keywords: Bayes Theorem Causality Climate Change/economics/ statistics & numerical data Conjunctivitis/epidemiology/immunology Humans Hypersensitivity/economics/ epidemiology/immunology Pollen/adverse effects Prevalence United States

Using climate divisions to analyze variations and trends in Alaska temperature and precipitation - Bieniek, Peter A.; Walsh, John E.; Thoman, Richard L.; Bhatt, Uma S. (Journal of Climate, 2014)

Ch. 28: Adaptation - Bierbaum, Rosina; Lee, Arthur; Smith, Joel; Blair, Maria; Carter, Lynne M.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Fleming, Paul; Ruffo, Susan; McNeeley, Shannon; Stults, Missy; Verduzco, Laura; Seyller, Emily (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: More than before, but less than needed - Bierbaum, Rosina; Smith, Joel B.; Lee, Arthur; Blair, Maria; Carter, Lynne; Chapin, F. Stuart; Fleming, Paul; Ruffo, Susan; Stults, Missy; McNeeley, Shannon; Wasley, Emily; Verduzco, Laura (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2013)
We reviewed existing and planned adaptation activities of federal, tribal, state, and local governments and the private sector in the United States (U.S.) to understand what types of adaptation activities are underway across different sectors and scales throughout the country. Primary sources of review included material officially submitted for consideration in the upcoming 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment and supplemental peer-reviewed and grey literature. Although substantial adaptation planning is occurring in various sectors, levels of government, and the private sector, few measures have been implemented and even fewer have been evaluated. Most adaptation actions to date appear to be incremental changes, not the transformational changes that may be needed in certain cases to adapt to significant changes in climate. While there appear to be no one-size-fits-all adaptations, there are similarities in approaches across scales and sectors, including mainstreaming climate considerations into existing policies and plans, and pursuing no- and low-regrets strategies. Despite the positive momentum in recent years, barriers to implementation still impede action in all sectors and across scales. The most significant barriers include lack of funding, policy and institutional constraints, and difficulty in anticipating climate change given the current state of information on change. However, the practice of adaptation can advance through learning by doing, stakeholder engagements (including “listening sessions”), and sharing of best practices. Efforts to advance adaptation across the U.S. and globally will necessitate the reduction or elimination of barriers, the enhancement of information and best practice sharing mechanisms, and the creation of comprehensive adaptation evaluation metrics.

US power plant sites at risk of future sea-level rise - Bierkandt, R.; Auffhammer, M.; Levermann, A. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by about 1 meter during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. We compute the power capacity that is currently out-of-reach of a 100-year coastal flooding but will be exposed to such a flood by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additional exposed capacity varies strongly among states. For Delaware it is 80% of the mean generated power load. For New York this number is 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: proposed and planned power plants are less exposed than those which are currently operating. However, power plants that have been retired or canceled were less exposed than those operating at present. If sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise may be costly but possible.

National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments - Bierwagen, B. G.; Theobald, D. M.; Pyke, C. R.; Choate, A.; Groth, P.; Thomas, J. V.; Morefield, P. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2010)
Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available.
Bierwagen, Britta G Theobald, David M Pyke, Christopher R Choate, Anne Groth, Philip Thomas, John V Morefield, Philip Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. United States Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Dec 7;107(49):20887-92. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1002096107. Epub 2010 Nov 15.
Keywords: Air Climate Change Ecosystem Environmental Remediation/legislation & jurisprudence/trends Forecasting Fresh Water Greenhouse Effect/legislation & jurisprudence Humans Models, Theoretical Ownership/ trends Population Density Public Policy/legislation & jurisprudence United States Vehicle Emissions

Europe adapts to climate change: Comparing national adaptation strategies - Biesbroek, G. Robbert; Swart, Rob J.; Carter, Timothy R.; Cowan, Caroline; Henrichs, Thomas; Mela, Hanna; Morecroft, Michael D.; Rey, Daniela (Global Environmental Change, 2010)
Keywords: Climate Change Adaptation National Adaptation Strategies Europe Governance

The mitigation–adaptation dichotomy and the role of spatial planning - Biesbroek, G. Robbert; Swart, Rob J.; van der Knaap, Wim G. M. (Habitat International, 2009)
Keywords: Climate change Spatial planning River basin approach Adaptation Mitigation Sustainable development

Drought induces lagged tree mortality in a subalpine forest in the Rocky Mountains - Bigler, Christof; Gavin, Daniel G.; Gunning, Charles; Veblen, Thomas T. (Oikos, 2007)

Flood damage prevention: Specific standards - Biloxi Mississippi Code of Ordinances (2017)

Water tables constrain height recovery of willow on Yellowstone's northern range - Bilyeu, Danielle M.; Cooper, David J.; Hobbs, N. Thompson (Ecological Applications, 2008)
Excessive levels of herbivory may disturb ecosystems in ways that persist even when herbivory is moderated. These persistent changes may complicate efforts to restore ecosystems affected by herbivores. Willow (Salix spp.) communities within the northern range in Yellowstone National Park have been eliminated or degraded in many riparian areas by excessive elk (Cervus elaphus L.) browsing. Elk browsing of riparian willows appears to have diminished following the reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupis L.), but it remains uncertain whether reduced herbivory will restore willow communities. The direct effects of elk browsing on willows have been accompanied by indirect effects from the loss of beaver (Castor canadensis Kuhl) activity, including incision of stream channels, erosion of fine sediments, and lower water tables near streams historically dammed by beaver. In areas where these changes have occurred, lowered water tables may suppress willow height even in the absence of elk browsing. We conducted a factorial field experiment to understand willow responses to browsing and to height of water tables. After four years of protection from elk browsing, willows with ambient water tables averaged only 106 cm in height, with negligible height gain in two of three study species during the last year of the experiment. Willows that were protected from browsing and had artificially elevated water tables averaged 147 cm in height and gained 19 cm in the last year of the experiment. In browsed plots, elevated water tables doubled height gain during a period of slightly reduced browsing pressure. We conclude that water availability mediates the rate of willow height gain and may determine whether willows grow tall enough to escape the browse zone of elk and gain resistance to future elk browsing. Consequently, in areas where long‐term beaver absence has resulted in incised stream channels and low water tables, a reduction in elk browsing alone may not be sufficient for recovery of tall willow stands. Because tall willow stems are important elements of habitat for beaver, mitigating water table decline may be necessary in these areas to promote recovery of historical willow–beaver mutualisms.

Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional - Bindoff, N.L.; Stott, P.A.; AchutaRao, K.M.; Allen, M.R.; Gillett, N.; Gutzler, D.; Hansingo, K.; Hegerl, G.; Hu, Y.; Jain, S.; Mokhov, I.I.; Overland, J.; et al. (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia - Binita, K-C; Shepherd, J. Marshall; Gaither, Cassandra Johnson (Applied Geography, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change Biophysical and social vulnerabilities Climate extremes Georgia

BioMap Alaska: Citizen Science for Alaska's Oceans [web site] - BioMap Alaska (Alaska Center for Climate Assessment & Policy, 2012)

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the coastal and marine environments of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) - Birchenough, Silvana N. R. (CME Caribbean Marine Climate Change Report Card 2017: Science Review 2017, 2017)

National assessment of nor’easter-induced coastal erosion hazards: Mid- and northeast Atlantic coast - Birchler, Justin J.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2015)

National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards: Northeast Atlantic Coast - Birchler, Justin J.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Thompson, David M. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2014)

Forest carbon management in the United States: 1600–2100 - Birdsey, Richard; Pregitzer, Kurt; Lucier, Alan (Journal of Environmental Quality, 2006)

Past and prospective carbon storage in United States forests - Birdsey, Richard A.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heath, Linda S. (Forest Ecology and Management, 1993)

The changing width of Earth’s tropical belt - Birner, Thomas; Davis, Sean M.; Seidel, Dian J. (Physcis Today, 2014)

Plant tolerance to high temperature in a changing environment: Scientific fundamentals and production of heat stress-tolerant crops - Bita, Craita; Gerats, Tom (Frontiers in Plant Science, 2013)
Global warming is predicted to have a general negative effect on plant growth due to the negative effect of high temperatures on plant development. The increasing threat of climatological extremes, including very high temperatures might lead to catastrophic loss of crop productivity and result in wide spread famine. In this review we assess the impact of global climate change on the production of agricultural crop production. There is a differential effect of climate change both in terms of geographic location and the crops that have will be likely to show the most extreme reductions in yield as a result of warming in general and the expected fluctuations in temperature. High temperature stress has a wide range of effects on plants both in terms of physiology, biochemistry and gene regulation pathways. In this review we present the recent advances of research on all these level of investigation focusing on potential leads that may help to understand more fully the mechanisms that make plants tolerant or susceptible to heat stress. Finally we review possible mechanisms and methods which can lead to the generation of new varieties that will allow sustainable yield production in a world likely to be challenged both by increasing population, higher average temperatures and larger temperature fluctuations.
Keywords: Global Warming,Food security,heat tolerance,crop productivity,Abiotic stress tolerance,Reproductive development

Social vulnerability index for coastal communities at risk to hurricane hazard and a changing climate - Bjarnadottir, Sigridur; Li, Yue; Stewart, Mark G. (Natural Hazards, 2011)
This paper presents the development of the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) in order to quantify the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone areas under various scenarios of climate change. The 2004–2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons is estimated to have caused $150 billion dollars in damages, and in recent years, the annual hurricane damage in the United States is estimated at around $6 billion. Hurricane intensity or/and frequency may change due to the increase in sea surface temperature as a result of climate change. Climate change is also predicted to cause a rise in sea levels, potentially resulting in higher storm surges. The CCSVI combines the intensity of hurricanes and hurricane-induced surge to create a comprehensive index that considers the effects of a changing climate. The main contributing factors of social vulnerability (such as race, age, gender, and socioeconomic status) in hurricane-prone areas are identified through a principal components analysis. The impact of social characteristics on the potential hurricane damage under various scenarios of climate change are evaluated using Miami-Dade County, Florida, as a case study location. This study finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the CCSVI.

Preliminary Investigation of the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Levels in New Haven, Connecticut. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012-1025 - Bjerklie, D.M.; Mullaney, J.R.; Stone, J.R.; Skinner, B.J.; Ramlow, M.A. (U.S. Department of the Interior and U.S. Geological Survey, 2012)

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic - Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A. G.; Santos, Armando J. B.; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: Caretta caretta Chelonia mydas ecological regime shifts Eretmochelys imbricata multivariate ENSO index sea surface temperature seagrass somatic growth rates

Unnatural disaster: Human factors in the Mississippi floods - Black, H. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2008)

Tribal Leaders Summit on Climate Change: A Focus on Climate Adaptation Planning and Implementation - Black, Mary; Chief, Karletta; Jacobs, Katharine; Chew, Schuyler; Rae, Lynn (Native Nations Climate Adaptation Program, 2015)

Migration and climate change: Toward an integrated assessment of sensitivity - Black, Richard; Kniveton, Dominic; Schmidt-Verkerk, Kerstin (Disentangling Migration and Climate Change: Methodologies, Political Discourses and Human Rights, 2013)
This chapter sets out a new approach to understanding the relationship between migration and climate change. Based on the understanding that migration is a significant, growing, but also complex phenomenon, this approach seeks to address the sensitivity of existing migration drivers in specific contexts to climate change. In contrast to existing approaches which have sought to generate global-level estimates of the numbers of ‘climate migrants’, this integrated assessment approach seeks instead to understand how and why existing flows from and to specific locations may change in the future, and provide a practical tool for climate adaptation planning. Examples of the application of this approach are provided for Ghana and Bangladesh.

Meeting institutional criteria for social resilience: A nested risk system model - Blair, Berill; Lovecraft, Amy L.; Kofinas, Gary P. (Ecology and Society, 2014)
Keywords: decision making indigenous knowledge social-ecological systems resilience risk adaptive systems

Urban climate: Processes, trends, and projections - Blake, R; Grimm, A; Ichinose, T; Horton, R; Gaffin, S; Jiong, S; Bader, D; Cecil, LD (Climate Change and Cities: First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network, 2011)

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields - Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan (Earth's Future, 2017)
Keywords: Crop yields irrigation climate change Mitigation policy 0402 Agricultural systems 1627 Coupled models of the climate system 1630 Impacts of global change 1842 Irrigation

Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change - Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John (Earth's Future, 2014)
Keywords: water requirements climate change water stress water resources United States integrated assessment 1655 Water cycles 1807 Climate impacts 1847 Modeling 1880 Water management 1857 Reservoirs (surface)

Perennial warm‐season grasses for producing biofuel and enhancing soil properties: An alternative to corn residue removal - Blanco‐Canqui, Humberto; Mitchell, Robert B.; Jin, Virginia L.; Schmer, Marty R.; Eskridge, Kent M. (GCB Bioenergy, 2017)
Removal of corn (Zea mays L.) residues at high rates for biofuel and other off‐farm uses may negatively impact soil and the environment in the long term. Biomass removal from perennial warm‐season grasses (WSGs) grown in marginally productive lands could be an alternative to corn residue removal as biofuel feedstocks while controlling water and wind erosion, sequestering carbon (C), cycling water and nutrients, and enhancing other soil ecosystem services. We compared wind and water erosion potential, soil compaction, soil hydraulic properties, soil organic C (SOC), and soil fertility between biomass removal from WSGs and corn residue removal from rainfed no‐till continuous corn on a marginally productive site on a silty clay loam in eastern Nebraska after 2 and 3 years of management. The field‐scale treatments were as follows: (i) switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), (ii) big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii Vitman), and (iii) low‐diversity grass mixture [big bluestem, indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans (L.) Nash), and sideoats grama (Bouteloua curtipendula (Michx.) Torr.)], and (iv) 50% corn residue removal with three replications. Across years, corn residue removal increased wind‐erodible fraction from 41% to 86% and reduced wet aggregate stability from 1.70 to 1.15 mm compared with WSGs in the upper 7.5 cm soil depth. Corn residue removal also reduced water retention by 15% between −33 and −300 kPa potentials and plant‐available water by 25% in the upper 7.5 cm soil depth. However, corn residue removal did not affect final water infiltration, SOC concentration, soil fertility, and other properties. Overall, corn residue removal increases erosion potential and reduces water retention shortly after removal, suggesting that biomass removal from perennial WSGs is a desirable alternative to corn residue removal for biofuel production and maintenance of soil ecosystem services.

Cover crops and ecosystem services: Insights from studies in temperate soils - Blanco-Canqui, Humberto; Shaver, Tim M.; Lindquist, John L.; Shapiro, Charles A.; Elmore, Roger W.; Francis, Charles A.; Hergert, Gary W. (Agronomy Journal, 2015)

Anthropogenic climate change and allergic diseases - Blando, James; Bielory, Leonard; Nguyen, Viann; Diaz, Rafael; Jeng, Hueiwang Anna (Atmosphere, 2012)
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Alpine Satellite Development Plan: Final Environmental Impact Statement. - BLM (U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM), 2004)

Identifying FDOT's physical transportation infrastructure vulnerable to sea level rise - Bloetscher, Frederick; Berry, Leonard; Rodriguez-Seda, Jarice; Hammer, Nicole Hernandez; Romah, Thomas; Jolovic, Dusan; Heimlich, Barry; Cahill, Maria Abadal (Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2014)
The objective of this research was to integrate current data sources to develop a methodology for assessing and mitigating the potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on Florida’s transportation infrastructure to assist transportation planning. The proposed approach integrates the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) information system with existing topographical and geological data to facilitate (1) the evaluation of current and projected SLR impacts on Florida’s coastline and low-lying terrain areas, and (2) the identification of the physical transportation infrastructure that is most likely to be affected by frequent to continuous flooding because of SLR so that solutions could be sought. The projection of SLR, and the timing for the same, was outlined using a benchmark approach that brackets time intervals as opposed to specific timing for improvements. Further research to evaluate the impact of sea level rise on ponding and storm surge is a future, more difficult area of investigation.

Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions - Blois, Jessica L.; Zarnetske, Phoebe L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Finnegan, Seth (Science, 2013)
Biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. The direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change. Understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. We highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species’ relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. These patterns emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar underlying processes. Based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/341/6145/499.full.pdf

Contingency plans for air traffic management - Blomdahl, Karl Sundequist; Flener, Pierre; Pearson, Justin (Principles and Practice of Constraint Programming—CP 2010 (16th International Conference, St. Andrews, Scotland, 6-10 Sep 2010), 2010)

Climate Change Fuelling Resource-Based Conflicts in the Asia-Pacific - Blondel, Alice (United Nations Development Program, 2012)

Observed relationships of ozone air pollution with temperature and emissions - Bloomer, Bryan J.; Stehr, Jeffrey W.; Piety, Charles A.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Dickerson, Russell R. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2009)
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Impacts of climate change on the fate and behaviour of pesticides in surface and groundwater—a UK perspective - Bloomfield, J. P.; Williams, R. J.; Gooddy, D. C.; Cape, J. N.; Guha, P. (Science of the Total Environment, 2006)
Keywords: Pesticides Climate change Groundwater Surface water Source–pathway–receptor

Evaluating Urban Resilience to Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Approach - Blue, Julie; Hiremath, Nupur; Gillette, Carolyn; Julius, Susan (U.S. EPA, National Center for Environmental Assessment, 2017)
Keywords: added by ERG

Drought Management in a Changing Climate: Using Cost-Benefit Analyses to Assist Drinking Water Utilities - Blue, Julie; Krop, Richard A.; Hiremath, Nupur; Gillette, Carolyn; Rooke, Jaime; Knutson, Cody L.; Smith, Kelly (Water Research Foundation, 2015)

Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment supply and global sea-level rise - Blum, Michael D.; Roberts, Harry H. (Nature Geoscience, 2009)

Cheatgrass is favored by warming but not CO2 enrichment in a semi-arid grassland - Blumenthal, Dana M.; Kray, Julie A.; Ortmans, William; Ziska, Lewis H.; Pendall, Elise (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Keywords: climate change global warming Great Plains grasslands growing season length nitrogen limitation plant invasion plant phenology rangeland ecosystems

Invasive forb benefits from water savings by native plants and carbon fertilization under elevated CO2 and warming - Blumenthal, Dana M.; Resco, Víctor; Morgan, Jack A.; Williams, David G.; LeCain, Daniel R.; Hardy, Erik M.; Pendall, Elise; Bladyka, Emma (New Phytologist, 2013)
Keywords: climate change elevated carbon dioxide global change invasive plant photosynthesis stomatal conductance warming water use efficiency (WUE)

State of the climate in 2015 - Blunden, Jessica; Arndt, Derek S. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016)
Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2016 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.

Genetically Engineered Crops: Experiences and Prospects - Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources (BANR) (The National Academies Press, 2016)
Genetically engineered (GE) crops were first introduced commercially in the 1990s. After two decades of production, some groups and individuals remain critical of the technology based on their concerns about possible adverse effects on human health, the environment, and ethical considerations. At the same time, others are concerned that the technology is not reaching its potential to improve human health and the environment because of stringent regulations and reduced public funding to develop products offering more benefits to society. While the debate about these and other questions related to the genetic engineering techniques of the first 20 years goes on, emerging genetic-engineering technologies are adding new complexities to the conversation. Genetically Engineered Crops builds on previous related Academies reports published between 1987 and 2010 by undertaking a retrospective examination of the purported positive and adverse effects of GE crops and to anticipate what emerging genetic-engineering technologies hold for the future. This report indicates where there are uncertainties about the economic, agronomic, health, safety, or other impacts of GE crops and food, and makes recommendations to fill gaps in safety assessments, increase regulatory clarity, and improve innovations in and access to GE technology.
Keywords: Biology and Life Sciences Agriculture

Time-course of cause-specific hospital admissions during snowstorms: An analysis of electronic medical records from major hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts - Bobb, Jennifer F.; Ho, Kalon K. L.; Yeh, Robert W.; Harrington, Lori; Zai, Adrian; Liao, Katherine P.; Dominici, Francesca (American Journal of Epidemiology, 2017)
With global climate change, more frequent severe snowstorms are expected; however, evidence regarding their health effects is very limited. We gathered detailed medical records on hospital admissions (n = 433,037 admissions) from the 4 largest hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts, during the winters of 2010–2015. We estimated the percentage increase in hospitalizations for cardiovascular and cold-related diseases, falls, and injuries on the day of and for 6 days after a day with low (0.05–5.0 inches), moderate (5.1–10.0 inches), or high (>10.0 inches) snowfall using distributed lag regression models. We found that cardiovascular disease admissions decreased by 32% on high snowfall days (relative risk (RR) = 0.68, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.54, 0.85) but increased by 23% 2 days after (RR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.49); cold-related admissions increased by 3.7% on high snowfall days (RR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.6, 8.6) and remained high for 5 days after; and admissions for falls increased by 18% on average in the 6 days after a moderate snowfall day (RR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.27). We did not find a higher risk of hospitalizations for injuries. To our knowledge, this is the first study in which the time course of hospitalizations during and immediately after snowfall days has been examined. These findings can be translated into interventions that prevent hospitalizations and protect public health during harsh winter conditions.
10.1093/aje/kww219

Cause-specific risk of hospital admission related to extreme heat in older adults - Bobb, J. F.; Obermeyer, Z.; Wang, Y.; Dominici, F. (JAMA, 2014)
Importance  Heat exposure is known to have a complex set of physiological effects on multiple organ systems, but current understanding of the health effects is mostly based on studies investigating a small number of prespecified health outcomes such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.Objectives  To identify possible causes of hospital admissions during extreme heat events and to estimate their risks using historical data.Design, Setting, and Population  Matched analysis of time series data describing daily hospital admissions of Medicare enrollees (23.7 million fee-for-service beneficiaries [aged ≥65 years] per year; 85% of all Medicare enrollees) for the period 1999 to 2010 in 1943 counties in the United States with at least 5 summers of near-complete (>95%) daily temperature data.Exposures  Heat wave periods, defined as 2 or more consecutive days with temperatures exceeding the 99th percentile of county-specific daily temperatures, matched to non–heat wave periods by county and week.Main Outcomes and Measures  Daily cause-specific hospitalization rates by principal discharge diagnosis codes, grouped into 283 disease categories using a validated approach.Results  Risks of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders, renal failure, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and heat stroke were statistically significantly higher on heat wave days relative to matched non–heat wave days, but risk of hospitalization for congestive heart failure was lower (P < .05). Relative risks for these disease groups were 1.18 (95% CI, 1.12-1.25) for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.06-1.23) for renal failure, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.04-1.16) for urinary tract infections, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.00-1.11) for septicemia, and 2.54 (95% CI, 2.14-3.01) for heat stroke. Absolute risk differences were 0.34 (95% CI, 0.22-0.46) excess admissions per 100 000 individuals at risk for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.12-0.39) for renal failure, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.09-0.39) for urinary tract infections, 0.21 (95% CI, 0.01-0.41) for septicemia, and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.10-0.22) for heat stroke. For fluid and electrolyte disorders and heat stroke, the risk of hospitalization increased during more intense and longer-lasting heat wave periods (P < .05). Risks were generally highest on the heat wave day but remained elevated for up to 5 subsequent days.Conclusions and Relevance  Among older adults, periods of extreme heat were associated with increased risk of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders, renal failure, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and heat stroke. However, the absolute risk increase was small and of uncertain clinical importance.
10.1001/jama.2014.15715

Heat-related mortality and adaptation to heat in the United States - Bobb, Jennifer F.; Peng, Roger D.; Bell, Michelle L.; Dominici, Francesca (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2014)

Anticipating the international spread of Zika virus from Brazil - Bogoch, Isaac I.; Brady, Oliver J.; Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; German, Matthew; Creatore, Marisa I.; Kulkarni, Manisha A.; Brownstein, John S.; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Hay, Simon I.; Groot, Emily; Watts, Alexander; Khan, Kamran (The Lancet, 2016)

Changes in source waters to the Southern California Bight - Bograd, Steven J.; Buil, Mercedes Pozo; Lorenzo, Emanuele Di; Castro, Carmen G.; Schroeder, Isaac D.; Goericke, Ralf; Anderson, Clarissa R.; Benitez-Nelson, Claudia; Whitney, Frank A. (Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2015)
Keywords: California Current System California Undercurrent CalCOFI Dissolved oxygen Inorganic nutrients Water masses Upwelling

Demand, supply, and restraint: Determinants of domestic water conflict and cooperation - Böhmelt, Tobias; Bernauer, Thomas; Buhaug, Halvard; Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Tribaldos, Theresa; Wischnath, Gerdis (Global Environmental Change, 2014)
Keywords: Climate variability Demand Restraint Supply Water conflict Water cooperation

Preparing for critical infrastructure breakdowns: The limits of crisis management and the need for resilience - Boin, Arjen; McConnell, Allan (Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 2007)

Managed wildfire effects on forest resilience and water in the Sierra Nevada - Boisramé, Gabrielle; Thompson, Sally; Collins, Brandon; Stephens, Scott (Ecosystems, 2017)
Fire suppression in many dry forest types has left a legacy of dense, homogeneous forests. Such landscapes have high water demands and fuel loads, and when burned can result in catastrophically large fires. These characteristics are undesirable in the face of projected warming and drying in the western US. Alternative forest and fire treatments based on managed wildfire—a regime in which fires are allowed to burn naturally and only suppressed under defined management conditions—offer a potential strategy to ameliorate the effects of fire suppression. Understanding the long-term effects of this strategy on vegetation, water, and forest resilience is increasingly important as the use of managed wildfire becomes more widely accepted. The Illilouette Creek Basin in Yosemite National Park has experienced 40 years of managed wildfire, reducing forest cover by 22%, and increasing meadow areas by 200% and shrublands by 24%. Statistical upscaling of 3300 soil moisture observations made since 2013 suggests that large increases in wetness occurred in sites where fire caused transitions from forests to dense meadows. The runoff ratio (ratio of annual runoff to precipitation) from the basin appears to be increasing or stable since 1973, compared to declines in runoff ratio for nearby, unburned watersheds. Managed wildfire appears to increase landscape heterogeneity, and likely improves resilience to disturbances, such as fire and drought, although more detailed analysis of fire effects on basin-scale hydrology is needed.

Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity – evidence since the middle of the 20th century - Boisvenue, Céline; Running, Steven W. (Global Change Biology, 2006)
Keywords: climate change climate change impacts forest growth forest productivity forest vegetation review of changes in forests

On the exchange of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and the sea - Bolin, Bert (Tellus, 1960)
The physical and chemical processes responsible for exchange of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and the sea are analyzed. It is shown that the rate of transfer is considerably decreased due to the finite rate of hydration of CO2 in water. This is the case both for a smooth water surface where molecular diffusion plays a rôle in the first few hundredths of a millimeter as well as for a rough sea where turbulence extends all the way to the surface. A general agreement is found between the transfer rate deduced in this way and the rate of exchange estimated on the basis of the C14/C12 ratio in the atmosphere and the sea.

Utility-Scale Solar 2015: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States - Bolinger, Mark; Seel, Joachim (Berkeley Lab, 2016)
The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. This report—the fourth edition in an ongoing annual series—provides data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. We analyze not just installed project costs or prices, but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement ("PPA") prices from a large sample of utility-scale solar PV and CSP projects throughout the United States. Some of the more-notable findings from this year's edition include the following: * Installation Trends: The use of solar tracking devices continued to expand in 2015. In a reflection of the ongoing geographic expansion of the market beyond the high-insolation Southwest, the average long-term insolation level across newly built project sites declined for the first time in 2015. Meanwhile, the average inverter loading ratio has increased among more recent project vintages, to 1.31. * Installed Prices: Median installed PV project prices within a sizable sample have steadily fallen by nearly 60% since the 2007-2009 period, to $2.7/WAC (or $2.1/WDC) for projects completed in 2015. The lowest 20th percentile of projects within our 2015 sample were priced at or below $2.2/WAC, with the lowest-priced projects around $1.7/WAC. * Operation and Maintenance ("O&M") Costs: PV O&M costs (from a very small sample of projects) were in the neighborhood of $15/kWAC-year, or $7/MWh, in 2015. These numbers include only those costs incurred to directly operate and maintain the generating plant, but exclude property taxes, insurance, land royalties, performance bonds, various administrative and other fees, and overhead. * Capacity Factors: Project-level AC capacity factors range widely, from 15.1% to 35.7%, with a sample median of 26.4%. This variation is based on the strength of the solar resource at each project site, whether the array is mounted at a fixed tilt or on a tracking mechanism, the inverter loading ratio, and likely degradation. Improvements in these factors have driven mean capacity factors higher over the last four years, to nearly 27% among 2014-vintage projects. * PPA Prices: Driven by lower installed project prices and improving capacity factors, levelized PPA prices for utility-scale PV have fallen dramatically over time. Most PPAs in the 2015 sample are priced at or below $50/MWh levelized, with a few priced as aggressively as ~$30/MWh. Even at these low price levels, PV may still find it difficult to compete with existing gas-fired generation, given how low natural gas prices have fallen over the past year. When stacked up against new gas-fired generation, PV looks more attractive—and in either case can also provide a hedge against possible future increases in fossil fuel costs. At the end of 2015, there were at least 56.8 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity in interconnection queues across the nation. The growth within these queues has come primarily from Texas and the Southeast, Central, and Northeast regions, which is a clear sign that the utility-scale market is maturing and expanding outside of its traditional high-insolation comfort zones of California and the Southwest.

High ground is becoming hot property as sea level rises - Bolstad, Erika (Climatewire, 2017)

Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models - Bonan, Gordon B.; Doney, Scott C. (Science, 2018)
High-quality climate predictions are crucial for understanding the impacts of different greenhouse gas emission scenarios and for mitigating and adapting to the resulting climatic changes. Bonan and Doney review advances in Earth system models that include the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Such models capture interactions between physical and biological aspects of the Earth system. This provides insight into climate impacts of societal importance, such as altered crop yields, wildfire risk, and water availability. Further research is needed to better understand model uncertainties, some of which may be unavoidable, and to better translate observations into model representations.Science, this issue p. eaam8328BACKGROUNDEarth system models (ESMs) simulate physical, chemical, and biological processes that underlie climate and are the most complex in a hierarchy of models of Earth’s interacting atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system. As terrestrial and marine ecosystems have been added to ESMs, the distinction between the physical basis for climate change, mitigation, and vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation (VIA) no longer necessarily holds. The same global change stresses that affect terrestrial and marine ecosystems are critical processes that determine the magnitude and trajectory of climate change, and many of the interventions that might lessen anthropogenic climate change pertain to the biosphere. Here we describe environmental changes that are stressing terrestrial and marine ecosystems. We discuss how these stressors are being included in ESMs, initially with an emphasis on climate processes, but also show their emerging utility for VIA analyses and examine them in the context of Earth system prediction.ADVANCESTerrestrial ecosystems face stresses from changing climate and atmospheric composition that alter phenology, growing season length, and community composition; these stresses enhance productivity and water-use efficiency in some regions, but also lead to mortality and increased disturbances from wildfires, insects, and extreme events in other regions. The addition of reactive nitrogen, elevated levels of tropospheric O3, and anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change stress ecosystems as well. The terrestrial biosphere models included in ESMs simulate the ecological impacts of these stresses and their effects on Earth system functioning. Ocean ecosystems and living marine resources face threats from ocean warming, changing large-scale circulation, increased vertical stratification, declining oxygen, and acidification, which alter nutrient supply, the light environment, and phytoplankton productivity; result in coral bleaching; and produce novel marine communities. Three-dimensional ocean models simulate the carbon cycle and associated biogeochemistry. Plankton ecosystem models both drive biogeochemistry models and characterize marine ecological dynamics.OUTLOOKThe untapped potential of ESMs is to bring dispersed terrestrial and marine ecosystem research related to climate processes, VIA, and mitigation into a common framework. ESMs offer an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as habitat loss, water availability, wildfire risk, air quality, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To do so, the science of climate prediction has to be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction, including the biosphere and its resources. ESMs provide the means not just to assess the potential for future global change stresses, but also to determine the outcome of those stresses on the biosphere. Such Earth system prediction is necessary to inform sound policy that maintains a healthy biosphere and provides the food, energy, and fresh water needed for a growing global population without further exacerbating climate change. Substantial impediments that must be overcome include advancing our knowledge of biosphere-related climate processes; reducing model uncertainty; and effectively communicating among, rather th n across, the disparate science communities of climate prediction, global biosphere modeling, VIA analyses, and climate change mitigation.The various models used for climate projections and mitigation and VIA analyses overlap in scope and would benefit from a broad perspective of Earth system prediction.Shown are the domains of ESMs, mitigation models, and VIA models along axes from VIA to climate processes (horizontal) and from primarily serving the research community to informing societal needs (vertical). Panels show forests and agriculture (left) and marine ecosystems (right) as represented across modeling domains.Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources.

Resilience Dividend Valuation Model: Framework Development and Initial Case Studies - Bond, Craig A.; Strong, Aaron; Burger, Nicholas; Weilant, Sarah; Saya, Uzaib; Chandra, Anita (RAND Corporation, 2017)

Causes and impacts of the 2014 warm anomaly in the NE Pacific - Bond, Nicholas A.; Cronin, Meghan F.; Freeland, Howard; Mantua, Nathan (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: SLP anomalies warm SST seasonal heating mechanisms regional and downwind impacts northeast Pacific Ocean 4572 Upper ocean and mixed layer processes 4504 Air/sea interactions

Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States - Bonfils, C.; Santer, B.D.; Pierce, D.W.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Bala, G.; Das, T.; Barnett, T.P.; Cayan, D.R.; Doutriaux, C.; Wood, A.W.; Mirin, A.; Nozawa, T. (Journal of Climate, 2008)
Large changes in the hydrology of the western United States have been observed since the mid-twentieth century. These include a reduction in the amount of precipitation arriving as snow, a decline in snowpack at low and midelevations, and a shift toward earlier arrival of both snowmelt and the centroid (center of mass) of streamflows. To project future water supply reliability, it is crucial to obtain a better understanding of the underlying cause or causes for these changes. A regional warming is often posited as the cause of these changes without formal testing of different competitive explanations for the warming. In this study, a rigorous detection and attribution analysis is performed to determine the causes of the late winter/early spring changes in hydrologically relevant temperature variables over mountain ranges of the western United States. Natural internal climate variability, as estimated from two long control climate model simulations, is insufficient to explain the rapid increase in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, the sharp decline in frost days, and the rise in degree-days above 0°C (a simple proxy for temperature-driven snowmelt). These observed changes are also inconsistent with the model-predicted responses to variability in solar irradiance and volcanic activity. The observations are consistent with climate simulations that include the combined effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. It is found that, for each temperature variable considered, an anthropogenic signal is identifiable in observational fields. The results are robust to uncertainties in model-estimated fingerprints and natural variability noise, to the choice of statistical downscaling method, and to various processing options in the detection and attribution method.
Keywords: Climate models,; ENSO,; Pacific decadal oscillation,; Orographic effects,; Climate variability

Trends in rainfall exceedances in the observed record in selected areas of the United States - Bonnin, Geoffrey M.; Maitaria, Kazungu; Yekta, Michael (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2011)
Keywords: precipitation climate variability/change statistics time series analysis rainfall frequency rainfall intensity stationarity

Evidence of sea level acceleration at U.S. and Canadian tide stations, Atlantic Coast, North America - Boon, John D. (Journal of Coastal Research, 2012)

Natural intrusions of hypoxic, low pH water into nearshore marine environments on the California coast - Booth, J. Ashley T.; McPhee-Shaw, Erika E.; Chua, Paul; Kingsley, Eric; Denny, Mark; Phillips, Roger; Bograd, Steven J.; Zeidberg, Louis D.; Gilly, William F. (Continental Shelf Research, 2012)
Keywords: Hypoxia Oxygen pH Internal tides Coastal ecosystems Upwelling

Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: Projections with CMIP5 models - Bopp, L.; Resplandy, L.; Orr, J. C.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J. P.; Gehlen, M.; Halloran, P.; Heinze, C.; Ilyina, T.; Séférian, R.; Tjiputra, J.; Vichi, M. (Biogeosciences, 2013)

Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: Projections with CMIP5 models - Bopp, L.; Resplandy, L.; Orr, J. C.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J. P.; Gehlen, M.; Halloran, P.; Heinze, C.; Ilyina, T.; Séférian, R.; Tjiputra, J.; Vichi, M. (Biogeosciences, 2013)

Carbonate chemistry in the coastal zone responds more strongly to eutrophication than ocean acidification - Borges, Alberto V.; Gypens, Nathalie (Limnology and Oceanography, 2010)

Adaptation can help mitigation: An integrated approach to post-2012 climate policy - Bosello, Francesco; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica (Environment and Development Economics, 2013)
This paper analyzes the optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation expenditures in a cost-effective setting, in which countries cooperate to achieve a long-term stabilization target (550 CO2-eq). It uses an Integrated Assessment Model (AD-WITCH) that describes the relationships between different adaptation modes (reactive and anticipatory), mitigation and capacity building to analyze the optimal portfolio of adaptation measures. Results show that the optimal intertemporal distribution of climate policy measures is characterized by early investments in mitigation followed by large adaptation expenditures a few decades later. Hence, the possibility of adapting does not justify postponing mitigation. Moreover, a climate change policy combining mitigation and adaptation is less costly than mitigation alone. In this sense mitigation and adaptation are shown to be strategic complements rather than mutually exclusive.

Vast stretches of Minnesota are flooded as swollen rivers overflow - Bosman, Julie (New York Times, 2014)

Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats - Both, Christiaan; Van Turnhout, Chris A. M.; Bijlsma, Rob G.; Siepel, Henk; Van Strien, Arco J.; Foppen, Ruud P. B. (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2010)
One consequence of climate change is an increasing mismatch between timing of food requirements and food availability. Such a mismatch is primarily expected in avian long-distance migrants because of their complex annual cycle, and in habitats with a seasonal food peak. Here we show that insectivorous long-distance migrant species in The Netherlands declined strongly (1984–2004) in forests, a habitat characterized by a short spring food peak, but that they did not decline in less seasonal marshes. Also, within generalist long-distance migrant species, populations declined more strongly in forests than in marshes. Forest-inhabiting migrant species arriving latest in spring declined most sharply, probably because their mismatch with the peak in food supply is greatest. Residents and short-distance migrants had non-declining populations in both habitats, suggesting that habitat quality did not deteriorate. Habitat-related differences in trends were most probably caused by climate change because at a European scale, long-distance migrants in forests declined more severely in western Europe, where springs have become considerably warmer, when compared with northern Europe, where temperatures during spring arrival and breeding have increased less. Our results suggest that trophic mismatches may have become a major cause for population declines in long-distance migrants in highly seasonal habitats.%U http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royprsb/277/1685/1259.full.pdf

Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought - Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Palik, Brian J.; Bradford, John B.; Fraver, Shawn; Battaglia, Mike A.; Asherin, Lance A. (Journal of Applied Ecology, 2017)
Keywords: climate change adaptation drought impacts ecosystem services Pinus ponderosa Pinus resinosa semi-arid forests temperate forests thinning tree population density

A review of subtropical community resistance and resilience to extreme cold spells - Boucek, R. E.; Gaiser, E. E.; Liu, H.; Rehage, J. S. (Ecosphere, 2016)
Keywords: climate change community ecology extreme climate event Special Feature: Extreme Cold Spells subtropics

Climate extremes drive changes in functional community structure - Boucek, Ross E.; Rehage, Jennifer S. (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Keywords: climate extremes cold fronts community ecology disturbance droughts estuaries functional trait structure

Prognostic factors in heat wave-related deaths: A meta-analysis - Bouchama, A.; Dehbi, M.; Mohamed, G.; Matthies, F.; Shoukri, M.; Menne, B. (Archives of Internal Medicine, 2007)

The cost of living: Measuring it for Alaska - Boucher, John (Alaska Economic Trends, 1998)

Atlantic Acropora Status Review Document. Report to National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Regional Office - Boulon, Rafe; The Acropora Biological Review Team (2005)

Impact of urbanization on US surface climate - Bounoua, Lahouari; Zhang, Ping; Mostovoy, Georgy; Thome, Kurtis; Masek, Jeffrey; Imhoff, Marc; Shepherd, Marshall; Quattrochi, Dale; Santanello, Joseph; Silva, Julie; Wolfe, Robert; Toure, Ally Mounirou (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
We combine Landsat and MODIS data in a land model to assess the impact of urbanization on US surface climate. For cities built within forests, daytime urban land surface temperature (LST) is much higher than that of vegetated lands. For example, in Washington DC and Atlanta, daytime mean temperature differences between impervious and vegetated lands reach 3.3 and 2.0 °C, respectively. Conversely, for cities built within arid lands, such as Phoenix, urban areas are 2.2 °C cooler than surrounding shrubs. We find that the choice and amount of tree species in urban settings play a commanding role in modulating cities’ LST. At continental and monthly scales, impervious surfaces are 1.9 °C ± 0.6 °C warmer than surroundings during summer and expel 12% of incoming precipitation as surface runoff compared to 3.2% over vegetation. We also show that the carbon lost to urbanization represents 1.8% of the continental total, a striking number considering urbanization occupies only 1.1% of the US land. With a small areal extent, urbanization has significant effects on surface energy, water and carbon budgets and reveals an uneven impact on surface climate that should inform upon policy options for improving urban growth including heat mitigation and carbon sequestration.

The reversibility of sea level rise - Bouttes, N.; Gregory, J. M.; Lowe, J. A. (Journal of Climate, 2013)
During the last century, global climate has been warming, and projections indicate that such a warming is likely to continue over coming decades. Most of the extra heat is stored in the ocean, resulting in thermal expansion of seawater and global mean sea level rise. Previous studies have shown that after CO2 emissions cease or CO2 concentration is stabilized, global mean surface air temperature stabilizes or decreases slowly, but sea level continues to rise. Using idealized CO2 scenario simulations with a hierarchy of models including an AOGCM and a step-response model, the authors show how the evolution of thermal expansion can be interpreted in terms of the climate energy balance and the vertical profile of ocean warming. Whereas surface temperature depends on cumulative CO2 emissions, sea level rise due to thermal expansion depends on the time profile of emissions. Sea level rise is smaller for later emissions, implying that targets to limit sea level rise would need to refer to the rate of emissions, not only to the time integral. Thermal expansion is in principle reversible, but to halt or reverse it quickly requires the radiative forcing to be reduced substantially, which is possible on centennial time scales only by geoengineering. If it could be done, the results indicate that heat would leave the ocean more readily than it entered, but even if thermal expansion were returned to zero, the geographical pattern of sea level would be altered. Therefore, despite any aggressive CO2 mitigation, regional sea level change is inevitable.
Keywords: Ocean dynamics,General circulation models

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF): Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands Dynamical Downscaled Climate Change Projections - Bowden, Jared; Wootten, Adam; Terando, A.; Boyles, R. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2018)

Two massive, rapid releases of carbon during the onset of the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum - Bowen, Gabriel J.; Maibauer, Bianca J.; Kraus, Mary J.; Rohl, Ursula; Westerhold, Thomas; Steimke, Amy; Gingerich, Philip D.; Wing, Scott L.; Clyde, William C. (Nature Geoscience, 2015)

Climate change and health in Earth's future - Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon (Earth's Future, 2014)
Ch7

Fire in the Earth system - Bowman, D.M.J.S.; Balch, J.K.; Artaxo, P.; Bond, W.J.; Carlson, J.M.; Cochrane, M.A.; D’Antonio, C.M.; DeFries, R.S.; Doyle, J.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Johnston, F.H.; Keeley, J.E.; et al. (Science, 2009)

Estimating global chlorophyll changes over the past century - Boyce, Daniel G.; Dowd, Michael; Lewis, Marlon R.; Worm, Boris (Progress in Oceanography, 2014)

Global phytoplankton decline over the past century - Boyce, Daniel G.; Lewis, Marlon R.; Worm, Boris (Nature, 2010)

Boyce et al. reply - Boyce, Daniel G.; Lewis, Marlon R.; Worm, Boris (Nature, 2011)

Anticipatory governance for social-ecological resilience - Boyd, Emily; Nykvist, Björn; Borgström, Sara; Stacewicz, Izabela A. (AMBIO, 2015)
Anticipation is increasingly central to urgent contemporary debates, from climate change to the global economic crisis. Anticipatory practices are coming to the forefront of political, organizational, and citizens’ society. Research into anticipation, however, has not kept pace with public demand for insights into anticipatory practices, their risks and uses. Where research exists, it is deeply fragmented. This paper seeks to identify how anticipation is defined and understood in the literature and to explore the role of anticipatory practice to address individual, social, and global challenges. We use a resilience lens to examine these questions. We illustrate how varying forms of anticipatory governance are enhanced by multi-scale regional networks and technologies and by the agency of individuals, drawing from an empirical case study on regional water governance of Mälaren, Sweden. Finally, we discuss how an anticipatory approach can inform adaptive institutions, decision making, strategy formation, and societal resilience.

World Ocean Database 2013 - Boyer, Timothy P.; Antonov, John I.; Baranova, Olga K.; Coleman, Carla; Garcia, Hernan E.; Grodsky, Alexandra; Johnson, Daphne R.; Locarnini, Ricardo A.; Mishonov, Alexey V.; O'Brien, Todd D.; Paver, Christopher R.; Reagan, James R.; et al. (NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center, 2013)

Trends in streamflow in the Yukon River Basin from 1944 to 2005 and the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation - Brabets, Timothy P.; Walvoord, Michelle A. (Journal of Hydrology, 2009)
Keywords: Yukon River Pacific Decadal Oscillation Streamflow trends Permafrost thaw

Climate and Health in Illinois - BRACE-Illinois (University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health, 2016)

Biochar: Examination of an Emerging Concept to Mitigate Climate Change - Bracmort, Kelsi (Congressional Research Service, 2010)

Climate Change and Energy Infrastructure Exposure to Storm Surge and Sea-Level Rise - Bradbury, James; Allen, Melissa; Dell, Rebecca (U.S. Department of Energy, 2015)

Epidemiological features of epidemic cholera (El Tor) in Zimbabwe - Bradley, M.; Shakespeare, R.; Ruwende, A.; Woolhouse, M. E. J.; Mason, E.; Munatsi, A. (Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 1996)
Epidemics of cholera have been frequent in southern Africa since the reintroduction of the disease to the continent in 1970. In late 1992, following a severe drought and an influx of refugees from Mozambique, cholera reappeared in Zimbabwe for the first time since 1985 and rapidly spread through the rural areas of the country. Data relating to symptomatic cholera infection collected during 2 large outbreaks on the eastern border of the country showed that host age and sex were important factors relating to symptomatic infection, as were population density and access to water. Epidemic profiles for the 2 study areas differed in that one of the profiles exhibited a distinct second phase epidemic. This unusual pattern was compared qualitatively with the output of a series of simple mathematical models to examine the contribution of different epidemiological processes to the pattern of disease observed. Model output suggested a complex disease process, in which the dynamics may have been influenced by spatial components. Statistical analysis of these unusual data showed that the observed pattern was independent of the effects of host age or sex, and provided compelling evidence of a marked spatial component of the second phase epidemic.
10.1016/S0035-9203(96)90512-X

Emergent anthropogenic trends in California Current upwelling - Brady, Riley X.; Alexander, Michael A.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: coastal upwelling internal variability California Current Earth System Model model ensemble 1626 Global climate models 4215 Climate and interannual variability 4279 Upwelling and convergences 4516 Eastern boundary currents

Status Review Report of 82 Candidate Coral Species Petitioned Under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS‐PIFSC‐27 - Brainard, Russell E.; Birkeland, Charles; Eakin, C. Mark; McElhany, Paul; Miller, Margaret W.; Patterson, Matt; Piniak, Gregory A. (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2011)

Ecological impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño in the central equatorial Pacific [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective] - Brainard, Russell E.; Oliver, Thomas; McPhaden, Michael J.; Cohen, Anne; Venegas, Roberto; Heenan, A.; Vargas-Angel, Bernardo; Rotjan, Randi; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Flint, Elizabeth; Hunter, Susan A. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018)

Evaluating penalized logistic regression models to predict heat-related electric grid stress days - Bramer, L. M.; Rounds, J.; Burleyson, C. D.; Fortin, D.; Hathaway, J.; Rice, J.; Kraucunas, I. (Applied Energy, 2017)
Keywords: Electrical grid Grid stress Heatwave Statistical modeling

Mitigation-driven translocation effects on temperature, condition, growth, and mortality of Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) in the face of solar energy development - Brand, L. Arriana; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Meyers, Jay; Dickson, Brett G.; Grouios, Christopher; Scheib, Amanda F.; Scherer, Rick D. (Biological Conservation, 2016)
Keywords: Utility-scale solar development Desert tortoise () Renewable energy Thermoregulation Mitigation-driven translocation Mojave Desert

Use of sacrificial embankments to minimize bridge damage from scour during extreme flow events - Brand, Matthew W.; Dewoolkar, Mandar M.; Rizzo, Donna M. (Natural Hazards, 2017)
The leading cause of bridge failure has often been identified as bridge scour, which is generally defined as the erosion or removal of streambed and/or bank material around bridge foundations due to flowing water. These scour critical bridges are particularly vulnerable during extreme flood events, and pose a major risk to human life, transportation infrastructure, and economic sustainability. Retrofitting the thousands of undersized and scour critical bridges to more rigorous standards is prohibitively expensive requiring effective yet economical countermeasures. This research tested the efficacy of using approach embankments as intentional sacrificial “fuses” to protect the bridge integrity and minimize damage during large flow events by allowing the streams to access their natural floodplain and reduce channel velocities. This countermeasure concept was evaluated using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System models. Steady flow models were developed for three specific bridges on two river reaches. Streamflow return period estimators for both river reaches were developed using Bayesian analysis and available United States Geological Survey stream gauge data to evaluate sacrificial embankments under non-stationary climatic conditions. The use of sacrificial embankments was determined to be a cost-effective scour mitigation strategy for bridges with suboptimal hydraulic capacity and unknown or shallow foundations. Additional benefits of sacrificial embankments include reductions in upstream flood stage and velocity.

Key issues and options in accounting for carbon sequestration and temporary storage in life cycle assessment and carbon footprinting - Brandão, Miguel; Levasseur, Annie; Kirschbaum, Miko U. F.; Weidema, Bo P.; Cowie, Annette L.; Jørgensen, Susanne Vedel; Hauschild, Michael Z.; Pennington, David W.; Chomkhamsri, Kirana (International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 2013)
Biological sequestration can increase the carbon stocks of non-atmospheric reservoirs (e.g. land and land-based products). Since this contained carbon is sequestered from, and retained outside, the atmosphere for a period of time, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is temporarily reduced and some radiative forcing is avoided. Carbon removal from the atmosphere and storage in the biosphere or anthroposphere, therefore, has the potential to mitigate climate change, even if the carbon storage and associated benefits might be temporary. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and carbon footprinting (CF) are increasingly popular tools for the environmental assessment of products, that take into account their entire life cycle. There have been significant efforts to develop robust methods to account for the benefits, if any, of sequestration and temporary storage and release of biogenic carbon. However, there is still no overall consensus on the most appropriate ways of considering and quantifying it.

Climate shapes the novel plant communities that form after deforestation in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands - Brandeis, Thomas J.; Helmer, Eileen H.; Marcano-Vega, Humfredo; Lugo, Ariel E. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2009)
Keywords: Species composition Tropical secondary forest Land-use history Introduced species Cluster analysis NMS ordination Caribbean

Impacts of climate change on fisheries - Brander, Keith (Journal of Marine Systems, 2010)
Keywords: Climate change Climate impact Fish populations Fisheries management Marine ecosystems

The Total Economic Value of U.S. Coral Reefs: A Review of the Literature - Brander, Luke; van Beukering, Pieter (NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program, 2013)

A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change - Brandt, Leslie; Derby Lewis, Abigail; Fahey, Robert; Scott, Lydia; Darling, Lindsay; Swanston, Chris (Environmental Science & Policy, 2016)
Keywords: Vulnerability Climate change Adaptive capacity Urban forest Inventory Chicago

Central Hardwoods Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project - Brandt, Leslie; He, Hong; Iverson, Louis; Thompson, Frank R.; Butler, Patricia; Handler, Stephen; Janowiak, Maria; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Chris; Albrecht, Matthew; Blume-Weaver, Richard; Deizman, Paul; et al. (USDA Forest Service, 2014)

Integrating science and management to assess forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change - Brandt, Leslie A.; Butler, Patricia R.; Handler, Stephen D.; Janowiak, Maria K.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Christopher W. (Journal of Forestry, 2017)
We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century using EVAA. Vulnerability and uncertainty ratings for forest community types in each assessment area were developed. The vulnerability of individual forest types to climate change varied by region due to regional differences in how climate change is expected to affect system drivers, stressors, and dominant species and the capacity of a forest community to adapt. This assessment process is a straightforward and flexible approach to addressing the key components of vulnerability in a collaborative setting and can easily be applied to a range of forest ecosystems at local to regional scales. Management and Policy Implications Forest managers can use vulnerability assessments to help understand which species and ecosystems may be at greatest risk in a changing climate. Vulnerability assessments explain what systems are the most (and least) vulnerable, and, more important, why they are vulnerable. We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) for forest managers and scientists to collaboratively assess forest ecosystem vulnerability. We applied EVAA to eight regions in the Midwest and Northeast totaling 252 million acres. Although we have applied EVAA at the ecoregional scale, it is flexible enough to be used at larger or smaller scales, depending on the needs of managers. Results from assessments using EVAA have been successfully applied to forest management decisions across the Midwest and Northeast by nongovernmental, private, and government forest managers. How this information is applied depends on the specific goals and objectives of different places and ownerships.
Keywords: adaptive capacity climate change adaptation climate change vulnerability climate impact assessment expert elicitation uncertainty

Potential impact of initialization on decadal predictions as assessed for CMIP5 models - Branstator, Grant; Teng, Haiyan (Geophysical Research Letters, 2012)
To investigate the potential for initialization to improve decadal range predictions, we quantify the initial value predictability of upper 300 m temperature in the two northern ocean basins for 12 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), and we contrast it with the forced predictability in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 climate change projections. We use a recently introduced method that produces predictability estimates from long control runs. Many initial states are considered, and we find on average 1) initialization has the potential to improve skill in the first 5 years in the North Pacific and the first 9 years in the North Atlantic, and 2) the impact from initialization becomes secondary compared to the impact of RCP4.5 forcing after 6 1/2 and 8 years in the two basins, respectively. Model‐to‐model and spatial variations in these limits are, however, substantial.

Future species composition will affect forest water use after loss of eastern hemlock from southern Appalachian forests - Brantley, Steven; Ford, Chelcy R.; Vose, James M. (Ecological Applications, 2013)
Keywords: Adelges tsugae Betula lenta eastern hemlock evapotranspiration hemlock woolly adelgid invasive species Jarvis model Rhododendron maximum sap flux Tsuga canadensis vapor pressure deficit water use

Ogallala Aquifer Program: A catalyst for research and education to sustain the Ogallala Aquifer on the Southern High Plains (2003–2017) - Brauer, David; Devlin, Dan; Wagner, Kevin; Ballou, Mike; Hawkins, Dean; Lascano, Robert (Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 2017)
The Ogallala Aquifer Program (OAP) was created in 2003 with support from Congressmen from Kansas and Texas. The OAP is a research‐education consortium seeking solutions from problems arising from declining water availability from the Ogallala Aquifer in western Kansas and the Texas High Plains. The consortium is led by the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) laboratories in Bushland and Lubbock, TX, and the university partners are Kansas State University, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Service, Texas Tech University, and West Texas A&M University. The OAP has provided over $40 million to support research and education activities. About half of these funds were used to support permanent ARS scientists and ARS hired post‐docs. The other half were used by university scientists to supplement on‐going projects by providing support for supplies, sample analyses, temporary employees, etc. Initially, OAP activities were focused on seven priorities. In 2013, four objectives replaced the original seven priorities. A fifth priority was added in 2017. The current objectives are: 1) Develop and evaluate water management strategies and technologies that could reduce water withdrawals for irrigation by 20% in 2020 compared to 2012; 2) Develop and evaluate management strategies and technologies that would increase the productivity and profitability of dryland cropping systems; 3) Improve the understanding of hydrological and climatic factors that affect water use and agricultural profitability; 4) Determine the impacts of alternative water withdrawal/use policies on the economic viability of the agriculture industry of the Southern Ogallala Aquifer Region; and 5) Develop best management practices for production of high value and alternative crops for both dryland and irrigated systems. The objectives of the program and distribution of resources are decided by an executive committee with a member from each of the four universities, two from ARS, one from Bushland, and the other from Lubbock. Proposed projects that utilize resources from more than one participating institution, leverage existing resources, and address the stated objectives are more likely to be provided support. The impact of the OAP on research directed at agriculture on the High Plains has been recognized by three prestigious awards.

Historical trauma among indigenous peoples of the Americas: Concepts, research, and clinical considerations - Brave Heart, Maria Yellow Horse; Chase, Josephine; Elkins, Jennifer; Altschul, Deborah B. (Journal of Psychoactive Drugs, 2011)

Shifting distributions of adult Atlantic sturgeon amidst post-industrialization and future impacts in the Delaware River: A maximum entropy approach - Breece, Matthew W.; Oliver, Matthew J.; Cimino, Megan A.; Fox, Dewayne A. (PLOS ONE, 2013)
Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) experienced severe declines due to habitat destruction and overfishing beginning in the late 19th century. Subsequent to the boom and bust period of exploitation, there has been minimal fishing pressure and improving habitats. However, lack of recovery led to the 2012 listing of Atlantic sturgeon under the Endangered Species Act. Although habitats may be improving, the availability of high quality spawning habitat, essential for the survival and development of eggs and larvae may still be a limiting factor in the recovery of Atlantic sturgeon. To estimate adult Atlantic sturgeon spatial distributions during riverine occupancy in the Delaware River, we utilized a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach along with passive biotelemetry during the likely spawning season. We found that substrate composition and distance from the salt front significantly influenced the locations of adult Atlantic sturgeon in the Delaware River. To broaden the scope of this study we projected our model onto four scenarios depicting varying locations of the salt front in the Delaware River: the contemporary location of the salt front during the likely spawning season, the location of the salt front during the historic fishery in the late 19th century, an estimated shift in the salt front by the year 2100 due to climate change, and an extreme drought scenario, similar to that which occurred in the 1960’s. The movement of the salt front upstream as a result of dredging and climate change likely eliminated historic spawning habitats and currently threatens areas where Atlantic sturgeon spawning may be taking place. Identifying where suitable spawning substrate and water chemistry intersect with the likely occurrence of adult Atlantic sturgeon in the Delaware River highlights essential spawning habitats, enhancing recovery prospects for this imperiled species.

Climate-driven changes in northeastern US butterfly communities - Breed, Greg A.; Stichter, Sharon; Crone, Elizabeth E. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)
10.1038/nclimate1663

Potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on a shallow natural lake fish assemblage - Breeggemann, Jason J.; Kaemingk, Mark A.; DeBates, Timothy J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Krause, Jacob R.; Letvin, Alexander P.; Stevens, Tanner M.; Willis, David W.; Chipps, Steven R. (Ecology of Freshwater Fish, 2016)
Keywords: shallow lakes temperature climate change predation growth predator–prey dynamics bioenergetics consumption

And on top of all that… Coping with ocean acidification in the midst of many stressors - Breitburg, D.L.; Salisbury, J.; Bernhard, J.M.; Cai, W.-J.; Dupont, S.; Doney, S.C.; Kroeker, K.J.; Levin, L.A.; Long, W.C.; Milke, L.M.; Miller, S.H.; Phelan, B.; et al. (Oceanography, 2015)

Short-term effects of air temperature on mortality and effect modification by air pollution in three cities of Bavaria, Germany: A time-series analysis - Breitner, Susanne; Wolf, Kathrin; Devlin, Robert B.; Diaz-Sanchez, David; Peters, Annette; Schneider, Alexandra (Science of the Total Environment, 2014)
Keywords: Air temperature Cause-specific mortality Effect modification Age groups Air pollution

Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective - Brekke, L.D.; Kiang, J. E.; Olsen, J. R.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Raff, D. A.; Turnipseed, D. P.; Webb, R.S.; White, K. D (U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 2009)

Bringing multiple values to the table: Assessing future land-use and climate change in North Kona, Hawaiʻi - Bremer, Leah L.; Mandle, Lisa; Trauernicht, Clay; Pascua, Pua'ala; McMillen, Heather L.; Burnett, Kimberly; Wada, Christopher A.; Kurashima, Natalie; Quazi, Shimona A.; Giambelluca, Thomas; Chock, Pia; Ticktin, Tamara (Ecology and Society, 2018)
As ecosystem service assessments increasingly contribute to decisions about managing Earth’s lands and waters, there is a growing need to understand the diverse ways that people use and value landscapes. However, these assessments rarely incorporate the value of landscapes to communities with strong cultural and generational ties to place, precluding inclusion of these values—alongside others—into planning processes. We developed a process to evaluate trade-offs and synergies in ecosystem services across land-use scenarios and under climate change in North Kona, Hawaiʻi, a tropical dry ecosystem where water, fire, biodiversity, and cultural values are all critical considerations for land management decisions. Specifically, we combined participatory deliberative methods, ecosystem service models, vegetation surveys, and document analysis to evaluate how cultural services, regulating services (groundwater recharge, landscape flammability reduction), biodiversity, and revenue: (1) vary across four land-use scenarios (pasture, coffee, agroforestry, and native forest restoration) and (2) are expected to vary with climate change (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 mid-century scenario). The native forest restoration scenario provided high cultural, biodiversity, and ecosystem service value, whereas coffee's strongest benefit was monetary return. The agroforestry scenario offered the greatest potential in terms of maximizing multiple services. Pasture had relatively low ecological and economic value but, as with native forest and agroforestry, held high value in terms of local knowledge and cultural connection to place. Climate change amplified existing vulnerabilities for groundwater recharge and landscape flammability, but resulted in few shifts in the ranking of land-use scenarios. Our results demonstrate that cultural services need not be sacrificed at the expense of other management objectives if they are deliberately included in land-use planning from the start. Meaningfully representing what matters most to diverse groups of people, now and under a changing climate, requires greater integration of participatory methods into ecosystem service analyses.
Keywords: agroforestry ahupua&#699 a cultural services ecosystem services forest restoration hydrologic services islands landscape flammability land-use change watershed management

Great Lakes commercial fisheries: Historical overview and prognoses for the future - Brenden, Travis O.; Brown, Russell W.; Ebener, Mark P.; Reid, Kevin; Newcomb, Tammy J. (Great Lakes Fisheries Policy and Management: A Binational Perspective, 2013)

Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought - Breshears, D.D.; Cobb, N.S.; Rich, P.M.; Price, K.P.; Allen, C.D.; Balice, R.G.; Romme, W.H.; Kastens, J.H.; Floyd, M.L.; Belnap, J.; Anderson, J.J.; Myers, O.B.; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2005)
Future drought is projected to occur under warmer temperature conditions as climate change progresses, referred to here as global-change-type drought, yet quantitative assessments of the triggers and potential extent of drought-induced vegetation die-off remain pivotal uncertainties in assessing climate-change impacts. Of particular concern is regional-scale mortality of overstory trees, which rapidly alters ecosystem type, associated ecosystem properties, and land surface conditions for decades. Here, we quantify regional-scale vegetation die-off across southwestern North American woodlands in 2002-2003 in response to drought and associated bark beetle infestations. At an intensively studied site within the region, we quantified that after 15 months of depleted soil water content, >90% of the dominant, overstory tree species (Pinus edulis, a pinon) died. The die-off was reflected in changes in a remotely sensed index of vegetation greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation index), not only at the intensively studied site but also across the region, extending over 12,000 km(2) or more; aerial and field surveys confirmed the general extent of the die-off. Notably, the recent drought was warmer than the previous subcontinental drought of the 1950s. The limited, available observations suggest that die-off from the recent drought was more extensive than that from the previous drought, extending into wetter sites within the tree species' distribution. Our results quantify a trigger leading to rapid, drought-induced die-off of overstory woody plants at subcontinental scale and highlight the potential for such die-off to be more severe and extensive for future global-change-type drought under warmer conditions.
Keywords: tree mortality; vegetation dynamics; climate change impacts; woodlands; Pinus edulis; PINUS-EDULIS; JUNIPERUS-MONOSPERMA; SOIL-MOISTURE; CLIMATE; PRECIPITATION; DISTURBANCE; SOUTHWEST; WOODLAND; DYNAMICS; IMPACTS

Rangeland responses to predicted increases in drought extremity - Breshears, David D.; Knapp, Alan K.; Law, Darin J.; Smith, Melinda D.; Twidwell, Dirac; Wonkka, Carissa L. (Rangelands, 2016)
Keywords: drought state and transition grassland shrubland woodland savanna

Results of an Arctic Council survey on water and sanitation services in the Arctic - Bressler, Jonathan M.; Hennessy, Thomas W. (International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 2018)

Climate change and homes: Who would lose the most to a rising tide? - Bretz, Lauren (Zillow Research, 2017)

Guarding against exploitation: Protecting indigenous knowledge in the age of climate change - Brewer II, Joseph P.; Kronk Warner, Elizabeth Ann (University of Kansas School of Law, 2015)

Projected changes in western U.S. large-scale summer synoptic circulations and variability in CMIP5 models - Brewer, Matthew C.; Mass, Clifford F. (Journal of Climate, 2016)
Large-scale synoptic circulations have a profound effect on western U.S. summer weather and climate. Heat waves, water availability, the distribution of monsoonal moisture, fire-weather conditions, and other phenomena are impacted by the position and amplitude of large-scale synoptic circulations. Furthermore, regional weather is modulated by the interactions of the large-scale flow with terrain and land–water contrasts. It is therefore crucial to understand projected changes in large-scale circulations and their variability under anthropogenic global warming.Although recent research has examined changes in the jet stream, storm tracks, and synoptic disturbances over the Northern Hemisphere under global warming, most papers have focused on the cold season. In contrast, this work analyzes the projected trends in the spatial distribution and amplitude of large-scale synoptic disturbances over the western United States and eastern Pacific during July and August. It is shown that CMIP5 models project weaker mean midtropospheric gradients in geopotential height as well as attenuated temporal variability in geopotential height, temperature, vorticity, vertical motion, and sea level pressure over this region. Most models suggest reduced frequency of troughs and increased frequency of ridges over the western United States. These changes in the variability of synoptic disturbances have substantial implications for future regional weather and climate.
Keywords: Geographic location/entity,North America,Circulation/ Dynamics,Synoptic climatology,Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Climate variability,Coastal meteorology,Models and modeling,Climate models

Smoke in the city: How often and where does smoke impact summertime ozone in the United States? - Brey, Steven J.; Fischer, Emily V. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2016)

The impacts of climate change on natural areas recreation: A multi-region snapshot and agency comparison - Brice, Becky; Fullerton, Christopher; Hawkes, Kelsey L.; Mills-Novoa, Megan; O'Neill, Brian F.; Pawlowski, Wincenty M. (Natural Areas Journal, 2017)

Climate Adaptation in the Big Bend Region of the Chihuahuan Desert - Briggs, M. (World Wildlife Fund, Rio Grande–Rio Bravo Program, 2016)

Alaska and the New Maritime Arctic. Executive Summary of a Project Report to the State of Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development - Brigham, Lawson W. (University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2015)

Overcoming barriers during the co-production of climate information for decision-making - Briley, Laura; Brown, Daniel; Kalafatis, Scott E. (Climate Risk Management, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change adaptation Boundary organization Information usability Decision support