United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) - Federal Register Notice (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2017)

Chemical and biological impacts of ocean acidification along the west coast of North America - Feely, Richard A.; Alin, Simone R.; Carter, Brendan; Bednaršek, Nina; Hales, Burke; Chan, Francis; Hill, Tessa M.; Gaylord, Brian; Sanford, Eric; Byrne, Robert H.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Greeley, Dana; et al. (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2016)
Keywords: California current large marine ecosystem Ocean acidification Anthropogenic CO2 Upwelling Pteropod dissolution

Ocean acidification: Present conditions and future changes in a high-CO2 world - Feely, R. A.; Doney, S. C.; Cooley, S. R. (Oceanography, 2009)

Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the CaCO3 system in the oceans - Feely, Richard A.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Lee, Kitack; Berelson, Will; Kleypas, Joanie; Fabry, Victoria J.; Millero, Frank J. (Science, 2004)
Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations over the past two centuries have led to greater CO2 uptake by the oceans. This acidification process has changed the saturation state ofthe oceans with respect to calcium carbonate (CaCO3) particles. Here we estimate the in situ CaCO3 dissolution rates for the global oceans from total alkalinity and chlorofluorocarbon data, and we also discuss the future impacts of anthropogenic CO2 on CaCO3 shell–forming species. CaCO3 dissolution rates, ranging from 0.003 to 1.2 micromoles per kilogram per year, are observed beginning near the aragonite saturation horizon. The total water column CaCO3 dissolution rate for the global oceans is approximately 0.5 ± 0.2 petagrams of CaCO3-C per year, which is approximately 45 to 65% of the export production of CaCO3.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/305/5682/362.full.pdf

Divergence of species responses to climate change - Fei, Songlin; Desprez, Johanna M.; Potter, Kevin M.; Jo, Insu; Knott, Jonathan A.; Oswalt, Christopher M. (Science Advances, 2017)
Climate change can have profound impacts on biodiversity and the sustainability of many ecosystems. Various studies have investigated the impacts of climate change, but large-scale, trait-specific impacts are less understood. We analyze abundance data over time for 86 tree species/groups across the eastern United States spanning the last three decades. We show that more tree species have experienced a westward shift (73%) than a poleward shift (62%) in their abundance, a trend that is stronger for saplings than adult trees. The observed shifts are primarily due to the changes of subpopulation abundances in the leading edges and are significantly associated with changes in moisture availability and successional processes. These spatial shifts are associated with species that have similar traits (drought tolerance, wood density, and seed weight) and evolutionary histories (most angiosperms shifted westward and most gymnosperms shifted poleward). Our results indicate that changes in moisture availability have stronger near-term impacts on vegetation dynamics than changes in temperature. The divergent responses to climate change by trait- and phylogenetic-specific groups could lead to changes in composition of forest ecosystems, putting the resilience and sustainability of various forest ecosystems in question.

A main driver or an intermediate variable? Climate change, water and security in the Middle East - Feitelson, Eran; Tubi, Amit (Global Environmental Change, 2017)
Keywords: Climate change Drought Conflict Middle East Euphrates River Jordan River

Multiple adaptation types with mitigation: A framework for policy analysis - Felgenhauer, Tyler; Webster, Mort (Global Environmental Change, 2013)
Keywords: Climate change policy Adaptation constructs Mitigation and adaptation portfolio Decision making under uncertainty

The California Fires Coordination Group. A Report to the Secretary of Homeland Security - FEMA (Department of Homeland Security, Emergence Preparedness and Response, 2004)

Identifying High Hazard Dam Risk in the United States [map] - FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2011)

Guidance for Flood Risk Analysis and Mapping: Combined Coastal and Riverine Floodplain - FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2015)

Community Rating System (CRS) Communities and Their Classes - FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Flood Insurance Program, 2016)

South Carolina Dam Failure Assessment and Advisement - FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2016)

Mayor De Blasio and FEMA announce plan to revise NYC’s flood maps. Release Number: NR-007 - FEMA (2016)

Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act - FEMA (U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2017)

Flood Insurance Reform—The Law - FEMA (U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2017)

Initial Hazus Wind Loss Estimates for Hurricane Maria Using the ARA Wind Field - FEMA (FEMA HAZUS Program, 2017)

Historic Disaster Response to Hurricane Harvey in Texas (HQ-17-133) - FEMA (FEMA, 2017)

Impacts of ethanol on planted acreage in market equilibrium - Feng, Hongli; Babcock, Bruce A. (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2010)
The magnitude of land conversion caused by biofuels expansion largely determines whether biofuels reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. To examine this issue, we model how equilibrium changes in input use and land allocation decisions respond to market- and policy-induced increases in corn ethanol demand. We demonstrate why total cropland area unambiguously increases with increased ethanol demand. The impact of ethanol price subsidies and consumption mandates are examined in the context of technical change. If ethanol demand is elastic enough, an exogenous increase in corn yields leads to cropland expansion with price subsidies. Yield increases under consumption mandates reduce land use.
10.1093/ajae/aaq023

Correspondence: Reply to "Reassessing the contribution of natural gas to US CO2 emission reductions since 2007" - Feng, Kuishuang; Davis, Steven J.; Sun, Laixiang; Hubacek, Klaus (Nature Communications, 2016)

Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate - Feng, S.; Fu, Q. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2013)

Changes in winter snowfall/precipitation ratio in the contiguous United States - Feng, Song; Hu, Qi (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2007)
Keywords: snow/rain ratio change surface temperature contiguous U.S. 1630 Impacts of global change 1655 Water cycles 1821 Floods 1812 Drought

More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall - Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson; Houze, Robert A.; Burleyson, Casey D.; Balaguru, Karthik (Nature Communications, 2016)

Coastal ocean and continental shelves - Fennel, Katja; Alin, S.; Barbero, L.; Evans, W.; Bourgeois, T.; Cooley, S.; Dunne, J.; Feely, R.A.; Hernandez-Ayon, J.M.; Hu, C.; Hu, X.; Lohrenz, S.; et al. (Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report, 2018)

Energy Primer: A Handkbook of Energy Market Basics - FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), 2015)

Drought Preparedness for Tribes in the Four Corners Region. Report from April 2010 Workshop. Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest. - Ferguson, D.B.; Alvord, C.; Crimmins, M.; Hiza Redsteer, M.; Hayes, M.; McNutt, C.; Pulwarty, R.; Svoboda, M. (The Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), The Institute of the Environment, The University of Arizona, 2011)

Evaluation to advance science policy: Lessons from Pacific RISA and CLIMAS - Ferguson, Daniel B.; Finucane, Melissa L.; Keener, Victoria W.; Owen, Gigi (Climate In Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation, 2016)

Rain gauges to range conditions: Collaborative development of a drought information system to support local decision-making - Ferguson, Daniel B.; Masayesva, Anna; Meadow, Alison M.; Crimmins, Michael A. (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2016)
Drought monitoring and drought planning are complex endeavors. Measures of precipitation or streamflow provide little context for understanding how social and environmental systems impacted by drought are responding. Here the authors report on collaborative work with the Hopi Tribe—a Native American community in the U.S. Southwest—to develop a drought information system that is responsive to local needs. A strategy is presented for developing a system that is based on an assessment of how drought is experienced by Hopi citizens and resource managers, that can incorporate local observations of drought impacts as well as conventional indicators, and that brings together local expertise with conventional science-based observations. The system described here is meant to harness as much available information as possible to inform tribal resource managers, political leaders, and citizens about drought conditions and to also engage these local drought stakeholders in observing, thinking about, and helping to guide planning for drought.
Keywords: Geographic location/entity,North America,Applications,Local effects,Planning,Policy,Societal impacts

Vulnerability of coastal aquifers to groundwater use and climate change - Ferguson, Grant; Gleeson, Tom (Nature Climate Change, 2012)

U.S.-Mexico teamwork where the Rio Grande is but a ribbon - Fernandez, Manny (New York Times, 2016)

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation - Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura (Nature Communications, 2014)

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation - Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura (Nature Communications, 2014)

Biological soil crusts: Diminutive communities of potential global importance - Ferrenberg, Scott; Tucker, Colin L.; Reed, Sasha C. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2017)

Brazilian Pepper Management Plan for Florida - Ferriter, Amy (Florida Exotic Pest Plant Council, 1997)

Sea Ice Index, Version 2 - Fetterer, F., K. Knowles, W. Meier, and M. Savoie (National Snow and Ice Data Center, 2016)

The effectiveness of vegetation management practices for prevention and control of bark beetle infestations in coniferous forests of the western and southern United States - Fettig, Christopher J.; Klepzig, Kier D.; Billings, Ronald F.; Munson, A. Steven; Nebeker, T. Evan; Negrón, Jose F.; Nowak, John T. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2007)
Keywords: Stand density Thinning Prescribed fire Slash management Scolytinae

Changing climates, changing forests: A western North American perspective - Fettig, Christopher J.; Reid, Mary L.; Bentz, Barbara J.; Sevanto, Sanna; Spittlehouse, David L.; Wang, Tongli (Journal of Forestry, 2013)
The Earth's mean surface air temperature has warmed by <inline-graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="sim.tif"/>1° C over the last 100 years and is projected to increase at a faster rate in the future, accompanied by changes in precipitation patterns and increases in the occurrence of extreme weather events. In western North America, projected increases in mean annual temperatures range from <inline-graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="sim.tif"/>1 to 3.5° C by the 2050s, and although projected changes in precipitation patterns are more complex to model, more frequent and severe droughts are expected in many areas. For long-lived tree species, because of their relatively slow rates of migration, climate change will likely result in a mismatch between the climate that trees are currently adapted to and the climate that trees will experience in the future. Individual trees or populations exposed to climate conditions outside their climatic niches may be maladapted, resulting in compromised productivity and increased vulnerability to disturbance, specifically insects and pathogens. In western North America, as elsewhere, several recent assessments have concluded that forests are being affected by climate change and will become increasingly vulnerable to mortality as a result of the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Droughts associated with higher temperatures may accelerate levels of tree mortality, for example, because elevated temperatures increase metabolic rates without increasing photosynthesis rates, thus compromising a tree's ability to create defenses against insects and pathogens. Distributions of the climatic niches of some tree species in western North America are predicted to change by up to 200% during this century based on bioclimate envelope modeling. We discuss the science of climate change, the implications of projected climatic changes to forest ecosystems in western North America, and the essential roles of forest managers, policymakers, and scientists in addressing climate change.
Keywords: bioclimatic envelopes climate change disturbance ecology forest ecology tree physiology

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) web site - FEWS NET (USAID, FEWS NET, 2017)

Large Assistance Needs and Famine Risk Continue in 2018 [Infographic] - FEWS NET (Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) and U.S. Agency for International Development, 2018)

[Highway Statistics] Functional System Length—2016: Miles by Ownership—Rural - FHA (Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Policy Information, 2016)

Highways in the Coastal Environment, Second Edition - FHWA (Federal Highway Administration. Department of Civil Engineering, University of South Alabama, 2008)

Order 5520: Transportation System Preparedness and Resilience to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events - FHWA (Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), 2014)

Barrier Island Roadway Overwashing From Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge: US 98 on Okaloosa Island, Florida (TEACR Engineering Assessment) - FHWA (Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), 2016)

Living Shoreline Along Coastal Roadways Exposed to Sea Level Rise: Shore Road in Brookhaven, New York (TEACR Engineering Assessment) - FHWA (Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), 2016)

FHWA Climate Resilience Pilot Program: Tennessee Department of Transportation - FHWA (Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA), Climate Resilience Pilot Program, 2017)

Wildfire and Precipitation Impacts to a Culvert: US 34 at Canyon Cove Lane, Colorado (TEACR Engineering Assessment) - FHWA (Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), 2017)

FHWA Sustainability: Resilience [web site] - FHWA (Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), 2018)

Transportation Engineering Approaches to Climate Resiliency (TEACR) Study [web site] - FHWA (U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 2018)

Gulf Coast Study [web site] - FHWA (U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 2018)

Climate change sensitivity assessment of streamflow and agricultural pollutant transport in California's Central Valley using Latin hypercube sampling - Ficklin, Darren L.; Luo, Yuzhou; Zhang, Minghua (Hydrological Processes, 2013)
Keywords: SWAT climate change agricultural pollution streamflow sediment nitrate

Walrus harvest locations reflect adaptation: A contribution from a community-based observation network in the Bering Sea - Fidel, Maryann; Kliskey, Andrew; Alessa, Lilian; Sutton, Olga P. (Polar Geography, 2014)
(Olia)

The role of environmental controls in determining sardine and anchovy population cycles in the California Current: Analysis of an end-to-end model - Fiechter, Jerome; Rose, Kenneth A.; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Hedstrom, Katherine S. (Progress in Oceanography, 2015)

Technical summary - Field, C.B.; Barros, V.R.; Mach, K.J.; Mastrandrea, M.D.; Aalst, M. van; Adger, W.N.; Arent, D.J.; Barnett, J.; Betts, R.; Bilir, T.E.; Birkmann, J.; Carmin, J.; et al. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change., 2014)

Forest resistance to sea-level rise prevents landward migration of tidal marsh - Field, Christopher R.; Gjerdrum, Carina; Elphick, Chris S. (Biological Conservation, 2016)
Keywords: Coastal forest Ecosystem resilience Marsh migration Sea-level rise Tidal salt marsh Vegetation change

Coastal Wetlands of the United States: An Accounting of a Valuable National Resource - Field, Donald W.; Reyer, Anthony J.; Genovese, Paul V.; Shearer, Beth D. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1991)

Ecosystem model parameterization and adaptation for sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design - Field, John L.; Marx, Ernie; Easter, Mark; Adler, Paul R.; Paustian, Keith (GCB Bioenergy, 2016)
Renewable fuel standards in the US and elsewhere mandate the production of large quantities of cellulosic biofuels with low greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints, a requirement which will likely entail extensive cultivation of dedicated bioenergy feedstock crops on marginal agricultural lands. Performance data for such systems is sparse, and non‐linear interactions between the feedstock species, agronomic management intensity, and underlying soil and land characteristics complicate the development of sustainable landscape design strategies for low‐impact commercial‐scale feedstock production. Process‐based ecosystem models are valuable for extrapolating field trial results and making predictions of productivity and associated environmental impacts that integrate the effects of spatially variable environmental factors across diverse production landscapes. However, there are few examples of ecosystem model parameterization against field trials on both prime and marginal lands or of conducting landscape‐scale analyses at sufficient resolution to capture interactions between soil type, land use, and management intensity. In this work we used a data‐diverse, multi‐criteria approach to parameterize and validate the DayCent biogeochemistry model for upland and lowland switchgrass using data on yields, soil carbon changes, and soil nitrous oxide emissions from US field trials spanning a range of climates, soil types, and management conditions. We then conducted a high‐resolution case study analysis of a real‐world cellulosic biofuel landscape in Kansas in order to estimate feedstock production potential and associated direct biogenic GHG emissions footprint. Our results suggest that switchgrass yields and emissions balance can vary greatly across a landscape large enough to supply a biorefinery in response to variations in soil type and land‐use history, but that within a given land base both of these performance factors can be widely modulated by changing management intensity. This in turn implies a large sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design space within which a system can be optimized to meet economic or environmental objectives.

The Coral Reef of South Moloka`i, Hawai`i; Portrait of a Sediment-Threatened Fringing Reef - Field, Michael E.; Cochran, Susan A.; Logan, Joshua B.; Storlazzi, Curt D. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2008)

A modeling framework for the resilience analysis of networked systems-of-systems based on functional dependencies - Filippini, Roberto; Silva, Andrés (Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2014)
Keywords: System analysis Resilience Critical infrastructures Systems-of-systems

Development of a strategic plan for food security and safety in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Canada - Fillion, Myriam; Laird, Brian; Douglas, Vasiliki; Van Pelt, Linda; Archie, Diane; Chan, Hing Man (International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 2014)

Houston’s hospitals treat storm victims and become victims themselves - Fink, Sheri; Blinder, Alan (New York Times, 2017)

Rising to the Challenge: Results of the 2011 Coastal California Adaptation Needs Assessment. USCSG-TR-01-2012 - Finzi Hart, J.A.; Grifman, P.M.; Moser, S.C.; Abeles, A.; Myers, M.R.; Schlosser, S.C.; Ekstrom, J.A. (University of Southern California Sea Grant, 2012)

Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution - Fiore, A. M.; Dentener, F. J.; Wild, O.; Cuvelier, C.; Schultz, M. G.; Hess, P.; Textor, C.; Schulz, M.; Doherty, R. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Sanderson, M. G.; et al. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2009)
Understanding the surface O3 response over a “receptor” region to emission changes over a foreign “source” region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O3) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O3 response over east Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA), and south Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O3 precursors, NOx, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O3 concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern United States and Japan. The sum of the O3 responses to NOx, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale “import sensitivity” as the ratio of the O3 response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus “domestic” (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the three foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O3 response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7–0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the three foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8–1.6 ppb). High O3 values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O3 levels are typically highest and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8-h average O3 above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region (<10–20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O3 of about 0.1 ppb a−1, at the low end of the 0.1–0.5 ppb a−1 derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O3 response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NOx, NMVOC, and CO emissions from the foreign source region.

Air quality and climate connections - Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Leibensperger, Eric M. (Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 2015)

Robust Stormwater Management in the Pittsburgh Region: A Pilot Study - Fischbach, Jordan R.; Siler-Evans, Kyle; Tierney, Devin; Wilson, Michael T.; Cook, Lauren M.; May, Linnea Warren (RAND Corporation, 2017)
ISBN: 9780833097958

Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models - Fischer, E. M.; Knutti, R. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)
Environmental phenomena are often observed first, and then explained quantitatively. The complexity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes manifest themselves to first order in simple ways: heavy precipitation intensification is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and model predictions made decades ago. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts.

Biodiversity, ecosystem function, and resilience: Ten guiding principles for commodity production landscapes - Fischer, Joern; Lindenmayer, David B.; Manning, Adrian D. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2006)

Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan arctic - Fisher, J. B.; Sikka, M.; Oechel, W. C.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Melton, J. R.; Koven, C. D.; Ahlström, A.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Chen, J. M.; Ciais, P.; Davidson, C.; et al. (Biogeosciences, 2014)

Modeling climate change feedbacks and adaptation responses: Recent approaches and shortcomings - Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Sue Wing, Ian; Lanzi, Elisa; Popp, David (Climatic Change, 2013)
This paper offers a critical review of modeling practice in the field of integrated assessment of climate change and ways forward. Past efforts in integrated assessment have concentrated on developing baseline trajectories of emissions and mitigation scenario analyses. A key missing component in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is the representation of climate impacts and adaptation responses. In this paper, we identify key biases that are introduced when climate impacts and adaptation responses are omitted from the analysis and review the state of modeling studies that attempt to capture these feedbacks. A common problem in these IAM studies is the lack of connection with empirical studies. We therefore also review the state of the empirical work on climate impacts and identify ways that this connection could be improved.

Climate, trees, pests, and weeds: Change, uncertainty, and biotic stressors in eastern U.S. national park forests - Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Abella, Scott R.; Peters, Matthew; Krist, Frank J. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2014)
Keywords: Climate change adaptation Eastern United States Forest health Nonnative species Vulnerability Assessment

Is "resilience" maladaptive? Towards an accurate lexicon for climate change adaptation - Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Hoffman, Cat Hawkins (Environmental Management, 2016)
Climate change adaptation is a rapidly evolving field in conservation biology and includes a range of strategies from resisting to actively directing change on the landscape. The term ‘climate change resilience,’ frequently used to characterize adaptation strategies, deserves closer scrutiny because it is ambiguous, often misunderstood, and difficult to apply consistently across disciplines and spatial and temporal scales to support conservation efforts. Current definitions of resilience encompass all aspects of adaptation from resisting and absorbing change to reorganizing and transforming in response to climate change. However, many stakeholders are unfamiliar with this spectrum of definitions and assume the more common meaning of returning to a previous state after a disturbance. Climate change, however, is unrelenting and intensifying, characterized by both directional shifts in baseline conditions and increasing variability in extreme events. This ongoing change means that scientific understanding and management responses must develop concurrently, iteratively, and collaboratively, in a science-management partnership. Divergent concepts of climate change resilience impede cross-jurisdictional adaptation efforts and complicate use of adaptive management frameworks. Climate change adaptation practitioners require clear terminology to articulate management strategies and the inherent tradeoffs involved in adaptation. Language that distinguishes among strategies that seek to resist change, accommodate change, and direct change (i.e., persistence, autonomous change, and directed change) is prerequisite to clear communication about climate change adaptation goals and management intentions in conservation areas.

Protected area tourism in a changing climate: Will visitation at US national parks warm up or overheat? - Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Monahan, William B.; Ziesler, Pamela S. (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979–2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041–2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67–77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8–23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13–31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation.

Review of some effects of climate change on indoor environmental quality and health and associated no-regrets mitigation measures - Fisk, William J. (Building and Environment, 2015)
Keywords: Building Climate change Health Indoor air quality Indoor environmental quality Mitigation

Drivers and Responses: Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change, Part 2 - Fiske, Shirley; Hubacek, Klaus; Jorgenson, Andrew; Li, Jia; McGovern, Tom; Rick, Torben; Schor, Juliet; Solecki, William; York, Richard; Zycherman, Ariela (USGCRP, 2018)

Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on infectious disease hospitalization risk in the United States - Fisman, David N.; Tuite, Ashleigh R.; Brown, Kevin A. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Although the global climate is changing at an unprecedented rate, links between weather and infectious disease have received little attention in high income countries. The “El Niño Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) occurs irregularly and is associated with changing temperature and precipitation patterns. We studied the impact of ENSO on infectious diseases in four census regions in the United States. We evaluated infectious diseases requiring hospitalization using the US National Hospital Discharge Survey (1970–2010) and five disease groupings that may undergo epidemiological shifts with changing climate: (i) vector-borne diseases, (ii) pneumonia and influenza, (iii) enteric disease, (iv) zoonotic bacterial disease, and (v) fungal disease. ENSO exposure was based on the Multivariate ENSO Index. Distributed lag models, with adjustment for seasonal oscillation and long-term trends, were used to evaluate the impact of ENSO on disease incidence over lags of up to 12 mo. ENSO was associated more with vector-borne disease [relative risk (RR) 2.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–8.48] and less with enteric disease (0.73, 95% CI 0.62–0.87) in the Western region; the increase in vector-borne disease was attributable to increased risk of rickettsioses and tick-borne infectious diseases. By contrast, ENSO was associated with more enteric disease in non-Western regions (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02–1.15). The periodic nature of ENSO may make it a useful natural experiment for evaluation of the impact of climatic shifts on infectious disease risk. The impact of ENSO suggests that warmer temperatures and extreme variation in precipitation events influence risks of vector-borne and enteric disease in the United States.

Coastal impacts due to sea-level rise - FitzGerald, D. M.; Fenster, M. S.; Argow, B. A.; Buynevich, I. V. (Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2008)
Keywords: barrier islands; tidal inlets; salt marsh; wetlands; inundation; estuaries; equilibrium slope; equilibrium beach profiles; mississippi delta plain; west-central; florida; wave-built terraces; salt-marsh; shoreface profile; north-carolina; united-states; sediment transport; tropical cyclones

Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest - Flannigan, Mike; Stocks, Brian; Turetsky, Merritt; Wotton, Mike (Global Change Biology, 2009)
Keywords: carbon balance circumboreal forest climate change fire management forest fires peatlands

Evaluation of climate models - Flato, G.; Marotzke, J.; Abiodun, B.; Braconnot, P.; Chou, S.C.; Collins, W.; Cox, P.; Driouech, F.; Emori, S.; Eyring, V.; Forest, C.; Gleckler, P.; et al. (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

Adapting laws for a changing world: A systemic approach to climate change adaptation - Flatt, Victor B. (Florida Law Review, 2012)

Miami Beach to begin new $100 million flood prevention project in face of sea level rise - Flechas, Joey (Miami Herald, 2017)

Water Is for Fighting Over and Other Myths about Water in the West - Fleck, John (Island Press, 2016)

The epidemiology of falling-through-the-ice in Alaska, 1990–2010 - Fleischer, N. L.; Melstrom, P.; Yard, E.; Brubaker, M.; Thomas, T. (Journal of Public Health, 2014)
Climate change has contributed to increasing temperatures, earlier snowmelts and thinning ice packs in the Arctic, where crossing frozen bodies of water is essential for transportation and subsistence living. In some Arctic communities, anecdotal reports indicate a growing belief that falling-through-the-ice (FTI) are increasing. The objective of this study was to describe the morbidity and mortality associated with unintentional FTIs in Alaska.MethodsWe searched newspaper reports to identify FTI events from 1990 to 2010. We also used data from a trauma registry, occupational health and law enforcement registries and vital statistics to supplement the newspaper reports. Morbidity and mortality rates were calculated for Alaska Native (AN) people and all Alaskans.ResultsDuring the 21-year period, we identified 307 events, affecting at least 449 people. Events ranged from no morbidity to fatalities of five people. More than half of the events involved transportation by snow machine. Mortality rates were markedly higher for AN people than that for all Alaskans.ConclusionsWe provide a numeric estimate of the importance of FTI events in Alaska. FTIs may represent an adverse health outcome related to climate changes in the Arctic, and may be particularly critical for vulnerable populations such as AN people.

Coastal Effects - Fleming, E.; Payne, J.; Sweet, W.; Craghan, M.; Haines, J.; Hart, J.F.; Stiller, H.; Sutton-Grier, A. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Minute 319: Colorado River Limitrophe and Delta Environmental Flows Monitoring. Interim Report - Flessa, Karl; Kendy, Eloise; Schlatter, Karen (University of Arizona (for the International Boundary and Water Commission), 2016)

IUCN: We need public service announcements about climate change - Fletcher, Charles H. (Honolulu Civil Beat, 2016)

Climate Change in the Federated States of Micronesia: Food and Water Security, Climate Risk Management, and Adaptive Strategies - Fletcher, Charles H.; Richmond, Bruce M. (Hawaii Sea Grant College Program, 2010)

Historical analysis of hydraulic bridge collapses in the continental United States - Flint, Madeleine M.; Fringer, Oliver; Billington, Sarah L.; Freyberg, David; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2017)

Unravelling the annual cycle in a migratory animal: Breeding-season habitat loss drives population declines of monarch butterflies - Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Pichancourt, Jean-Baptiste; Norris, D. Ryan; Martin, Tara G. (Journal of Animal Ecology, 2015)
Threats to migratory animals can occur at multiple periods of the annual cycle that are separated by thousands of kilometres and span international borders. Populations of the iconic monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) of eastern North America have declined over the last 21 years. Three hypotheses have been posed to explain the decline: habitat loss on the overwintering grounds in Mexico, habitat loss on the breeding grounds in the United States and Canada, and extreme weather events. Our objectives were to assess population viability, determine which life stage, season and geographical region are contributing the most to population dynamics and test the three hypotheses that explain the observed population decline. We developed a spatially structured, stochastic and density-dependent periodic projection matrix model that integrates patterns of migratory connectivity and demographic vital rates across the annual cycle. We used perturbation analysis to determine the sensitivity of population abundance to changes in vital rate among life stages, seasons and geographical regions. Next, we compared the singular effects of each threat to the full model where all factors operate concurrently. Finally, we generated predictions to assess the risk of host plant loss as a result of genetically modified crops on current and future monarch butterfly population size and extinction probability. Our year-round population model predicted population declines of 14% and a quasi-extinction probability (<1000 individuals) >5% within a century. Monarch abundance was more than four times more sensitive to perturbations of vital rates on the breeding grounds than on the wintering grounds. Simulations that considered only forest loss or climate change in Mexico predicted higher population sizes compared to milkweed declines on the breeding grounds. Our model predictions also suggest that mitigating the negative effects of genetically modified crops results in higher population size and lower extinction risk. Recent population declines stem from reduction in milkweed host plants in the United States that arise from increasing adoption of genetically modified crops and land-use change, not from climate change or degradation of forest habitats in Mexico. Therefore, reducing the negative effects of host plant loss on the breeding grounds is the top conservation priority to slow or halt future population declines of monarch butterflies in North America.

Present and future global distributions of the marine Cyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus - Flombaum, Pedro; Gallegos, José L.; Gordillo, Rodolfo A.; Rincón, José; Zabala, Lina L.; Jiao, Nianzhi; Karl, David M.; Li, William K. W.; Lomas, Michael W.; Veneziano, Daniele; Vera, Carolina S.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
The Cyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus account for a substantial fraction of marine primary production. Here, we present quantitative niche models for these lineages that assess present and future global abundances and distributions. These niche models are the result of neural network, nonparametric, and parametric analyses, and they rely on >35,000 discrete observations from all major ocean regions. The models assess cell abundance based on temperature and photosynthetically active radiation, but the individual responses to these environmental variables differ for each lineage. The models estimate global biogeographic patterns and seasonal variability of cell abundance, with maxima in the warm oligotrophic gyres of the Indian and the western Pacific Oceans and minima at higher latitudes. The annual mean global abundances of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus are 2.9 ± 0.1 × 1027 and 7.0 ± 0.3 × 1026 cells, respectively. Using projections of sea surface temperature as a result of increased concentration of greenhouse gases at the end of the 21st century, our niche models projected increases in cell numbers of 29% and 14% for Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, respectively. The changes are geographically uneven but include an increase in area. Thus, our global niche models suggest that oceanic microbial communities will experience complex changes as a result of projected future climate conditions. Because of the high abundances and contributions to primary production of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, these changes may have large impacts on ocean ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles.

Select Committee on Hurricane Response and Preparedness Final Report - Florida House of Representatives (2018)

Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: A systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals - Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; et al. (PLOS ONE, 2013)
Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.

Potential climate change impacts on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) off the northeastern USA - Fogarty, Michael; Incze, Lewis; Hayhoe, Katherine; Mountain, David; Manning, James (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2008)
Keywords: Climate change impacts Gulf of Maine Cod Bottom water temperatures

Solutions for a cultivated planet - Foley, Jonathan A.; Ramankutty, Navin; Brauman, Kate A.; Cassidy, Emily S.; Gerber, James S.; Johnston, Matt; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; O’Connell, Christine; Ray, Deepak K.; West, Paul C.; Balzer, Christian; Bennett, Elena M.; et al. (Nature, 2011)

Nearshore ice and climate change in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence - Forbes, Donald L.; Manson, Gavin K.; Chagnon, Richard; Solomon, Steven M.; Sanden, Joost J. van der; Lynds, Tracy L. (Ice in the Environment: Proceedings of the 16th IAHR International Symposium on Ice, 2002)

A systematic review of observed climate change adaptation in developed nations - Ford, James D.; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Paterson, Jaclyn (Climatic Change, 2011)
We develop and apply a systematic mixed-methods literature review methodology to identify and characterize how climate change adaptation is taking place in developed nations. We find limited evidence of adaptation action. Where interventions are being implemented and reported on, they are typically in sectors that are sensitive to climate impacts, are most common at the municipal level, facilitated by higher-level government interventions, with responses typically institutional in nature. There is negligible description of adaptation taking place with respect to vulnerable groups, with reporting unequal by region and sector. The methodology offers important insights for meta-analyses in climate change scholarship and can be used for monitoring progress in adaptation over time.

Climate change policy responses for Canada's Inuit population: The importance of and opportunities for adaptation - Ford, James D.; Pearce, Tristan; Duerden, Frank; Furgal, Chris; Smit, Barry (Global Environmental Change, 2010)
Keywords: Inuit Climate change Vulnerability Adaptation Canada Indigenous peoples Aboriginal peoples Climate policy

Climate change adaptation in Indian Country: Tribal regulation of reservation lands and natural resources - Ford, Jamie Kay; Giles, Erick (William Mitchell Law Review, 2015)

Local Biodiversity Outlooks: Indigenous Peoples’ and Local Communities’ Contributions to the Implementation of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020. A complement to the fourth edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook - Forest Peoples Programme; International Indigenous Forum on Biodiversity; Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (Local Biodiversity Outlooks, 2016)
(FPP)

Urban Nature for Human Health and Well-Being: A Research Summary for Communicating the Health Benefits of Urban Trees and Green Space - Forest Service (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 2018)

Record of Decision for: Amendments to Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management Planning Documents Within the Range of the Northern Spotted Owl ; and, Standards and Guidelines for Management of Habitat for Late-Successional and Old-Growth Forest Related Species Within the Range of the Northern Spotted Owl - Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management (USDA, Forest Service; U.S. Dept. of Interior, Bureau of Land Management, 1994)

Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems - Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Rödenbeck, Christian; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin; Thonicke, Kirsten; Zaehle, Sönke; Reichstein, Markus (Science, 2016)
The combined effects of climate change and vegetation dynamics at high northern latitudes have amplified the seasonal variation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the past half century. Forkel et al. combined observations and models to show that climate warming has caused the photosynthetic uptake of carbon to increase faster than its respiratory release from the terrestrial biosphere. This has increased the difference from summer to winter, as well as the latitudinal gradient. Because of the physiological limitations to carbon uptake by terrestrial vegetation, this negative feedback to warming in the boreal north and Arctic cannot continue indefinitely.Science, this issue p. 696Atmospheric monitoring of high northern latitudes (above 40°N) has shown an enhanced seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide (CO2) since the 1960s, but the underlying mechanisms are not yet fully understood. The much stronger increase in high latitudes relative to low ones suggests that northern ecosystems are experiencing large changes in vegetation and carbon cycle dynamics. We found that the latitudinal gradient of the increasing CO2 amplitude is mainly driven by positive trends in photosynthetic carbon uptake caused by recent climate change and mediated by changing vegetation cover in northern ecosystems. Our results underscore the importance of climate–vegetation–carbon cycle feedbacks at high latitudes; moreover, they indicate that in recent decades, photosynthetic carbon uptake has reacted much more strongly to warming than have carbon release processes.

Chapter 8. Bending the curve and closing the gap: Climate justice and public health - Forman, Fonna; Solomon, Gina; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Pezzoli, Keith (Collabra, 2016)

Plant–pollinator interactions and phenological change: What can we learn about climate impacts from experiments and observations? - Forrest, Jessica R. K. (Oikos, 2015)

Complex responses of insect phenology to climate change - Forrest, Jessica R. K. (Current Opinion in Insect Science, 2016)

A Landscape-Based Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for All Native Hawaiian Plants - Fortini, Lucas; Price, Jonathan; Jacobi, James; Vorsino, Adam; Burgett, Jeff; Brinck, Kevin; ‘Ohukani‘ohi‘a Gon III, Sam; Koob, Gregory; Paxton, Eben (University of Hawai‘i at Hilo, Hawai‘i Cooperative Studies Unit, 2013)
In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species to define zones across the landscape: the toleration zone; the microrefugia zone; and the migration zone. Using these response zones we calculated a diverse set of factors related to habitat area, quality, and distribution for each species, including the amount of habitat protection and fragmentation and areas projected to be lost to sea-level rise. We then calculated the probabilities of each species exhibiting these responses using a Bayesian network model and determined the overall climate change vulnerability of each species by using a vulnerability index. As a first iteration of a response-based species vulnerability assessment (VA), our landscape-based analysis effectively integrates species-distribution models into a Bayesian network-based VA that can be updated with improved models and data for more refined analyses in the future. Our results show that the species most vulnerable to climate change also tend to be species of conservation concern due to non-climatic threats (e.g., competition and predation from invasive species, land-use change). Also, many of Hawaiʽi’s taxa that are most vulnerable to climate change share characteristics with species that in the past were found to be at risk of extinction due to non-climatic threats (e.g., archipelago endemism, single-island endemism). Of particular concern are the numerous species that have no compatible-climate areas remaining by the year 2100. Species primarily associated with dry forests have higher vulnerability scores than species from any other habitat type. When examined at taxonomic levels above species, low vulnerabilities are concentrated in families and genera of generalists (e.g., ferns or sedges) and typically associated with mid-elevation wet habitats. Our results replicate findings from other regions that link higher species vulnerability with decreasing range size. This species VA is possibly the largest in scope ever conducted in the United States with over 1000 species considered, 319 of which are listed as endangered or threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, filling a critical knowledge gap for resource managers in the region. The information in this assessment can help prioritize species for special conservation actions, guide the management of conservation areas, inform the selection of research and monitoring priorities, and support adaptive management planning and implementation.
Keywords: Hawaii Vulnerability Ecosystems migration

Final Project Report for "Expanding a Dynamic Model of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change for Hawai`i and Other Pacific Island Ecosystems" - Fortini, Lucas B. (2016)

Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options - Fortini, Lucas B.; Vorsino, Adam E.; Amidon, Fred A.; Paxton, Eben H.; Jacobi, James D. (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

Work-attributed illness arising from excess heat exposure in Ontario, 2004-2010 - Fortune, Melanie K.; Mustard, Cameron A.; Etches, Jacob J.C.; Chambers, Andrea G. (Canadian Journal of Public Health, 2013)
OBJECTIVE: To describe the incidence of occupational heat illness in Ontario. METHODS: Heat illness events were identified in two population-based data sources: work-related emergency department (ED) records and lost time claims for the period 2004-2010 in Ontario, Canada. Incidence rates were calculated using denominator estimates from national labour market surveys and estimates were adjusted for workers’ compensation insurance coverage. Proportional morbidity ratios were estimated for industry, occupation and tenure of employment. RESULTS: There were 785 heat illness events identified in the ED encounter records (incidence rate 1.6 per 1,000,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) months) and 612 heat illness events identified in the lost time claim records (incidence rate 1.7 per 1,000,000 FTE months) in the seven-year observation period with peak incidence observed in the summer months. The risk of heat illness was elevated for men, young workers, manual workers and those with shorter employment tenure. A higher proportion of lost time claims attributed to heat illness were observed in the government services, agriculture and construction sectors relative to all lost time claims. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational heat illnesses are experienced in Ontario’s population and are observed in ED records and lost time claims. The variation of heat illness incidence observed with worker and industry characteristics, and over time, can inform prevention efforts by occupational health services in Ontario.
Keywords: Heat stress disorders occupational exposure epidemiology

Montane forest ecotones moved downslope in northeastern USA in spite of warming between 1984 and 2011 - Foster, Jane R.; D'Amato, Anthony W. (Global Change Biology, 2015)
Keywords: climate migration decline disturbance ecotones forest dynamics global change Picea rubens species range shifts

The potential negative impacts of global climate change on tropical montane cloud forests - Foster, Pru (Earth-Science Reviews, 2001)
Keywords: cloud forest tropical montane cloud forest climate change impacts relative humidity paleovegetation epiphytes cloud formation changes

Poverty and disasters in the United States: A review of recent sociological findings - Fothergill, Alice; Peek, Lori A. (Natural Hazards, 2004)

Practices for alleviating heat stress of dairy cows in humid continental climates: A literature review - Fournel, Sébastien; Ouellet, Véronique; Charbonneau, Édith (Animals, 2017)

Seagrass ecosystems as a globally significant carbon stock - Fourqurean, James W.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Kennedy, Hilary; Marbà, Núria; Holmer, Marianne; Mateo, Miguel Angel; Apostolaki, Eugenia T.; Kendrick, Gary A.; Krause-Jensen, Dorte; McGlathery, Karen J.; Serrano, Oscar (Nature Geoscience, 2012)

The cost of inaction: Flagstaff Watershed Protection Project cost avoidance study - Fox, Wayne R. (Arizona State Law Journal, 2016)

Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns - Francis, Jennifer; Skific, Natasa (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2015)
The effects of rapid Arctic warming and ice loss on weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is a topic of active research, lively scientific debate and high societal impact. The emergence of Arctic amplification—the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming—in only the last 10–20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations. Several recent studies have proposed and demonstrated new mechanisms by which the changing Arctic may be affecting weather patterns in mid-latitudes, and these linkages differ fundamentally from tropics/jet-stream interactions through the transfer of wave energy. In this study, new metrics and evidence are presented that suggest disproportionate Arctic warming—and resulting weakening of the poleward temperature gradient—is causing the Northern Hemisphere circulation to assume a more meridional character (i.e. wavier), although not uniformly in space or by season, and that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently. Further analysis based on self-organizing maps supports this finding. These changes in circulation are expected to lead to persistent weather patterns that are known to cause extreme weather events. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, therefore, the continued amplification of Arctic warming should favour an increased occurrence of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.%U http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/roypta/373/2045/20140170.full.pdf

Climate change and electricity demand in California - Franco, Guido; Sanstad, Alan H. (Climatic Change, 2008)

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: Concepts, processes and potential future impacts - Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2015)
Keywords: carbon cycle climate change climate extremes climate variability disturbance terrestrial ecosystems

Sensitivity of plants to changing atmospheric CO2 concentration: From the geological past to the next century - Franks, Peter J.; Adams, Mark A.; Amthor, Jeffrey S.; Barbour, Margaret M.; Berry, Joseph A.; Ellsworth, David S.; Farquhar, Graham D.; Ghannoum, Oula; Lloyd, Jon; McDowell, Nate; Norby, Richard J.; Tissue, David T.; et al. (New Phytologist, 2013)
Keywords: climate change CO2 drought fossils global climate models plant gas exchange stomatal conductance water use efficiency

Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations - Franks, Steven J.; Weber, Jennifer J.; Aitken, Sally N. (Evolutionary Applications, 2014)
Keywords: adaptive evolution ecological genetics global change phenotypic plasticity

Washington State Climate Summary - Frankson, Rebekah; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Champion, Sarah; Easterling, David; Stevens, Laura; Bumbaco, Karin; Bond, Nick; Casola, Joe; Sweet, William (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017)

Oregon State Climate Summary - Frankson, Rebekah; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Champion, Sarah; Stevens, Laura; Easterling, David; Dello, Kathie; Dalton, Meghan; Sharp, Darrin (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017)

Are climatic or land cover changes the dominant cause of runoff trends in the Upper Mississippi River Basin? - Frans, Chris; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Mishra, Vimal; Munoz-Arriola, Francisco; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2013)
Keywords: Climate Streamflow LULC 1632 Land cover change 1637 Regional climate change 1807 Climate impacts 1834 Human impacts 1833 Hydroclimatology

Water infiltration and soil structure related to organic matter and its stratification with depth - Franzluebbers, A. J. (Soil and Tillage Research, 2002)
Keywords: Bulk density Conservation tillage Macroaggregation Mean-weight diameter Soil organic carbon Soil quality

Spatial trend analysis of Hawaiian rainfall from 1920 to 2012 - Frazier, Abby G.; Giambelluca, Thomas W. (International Journal of Climatology, 2017)
Spatial patterns of rainfall in Hawai‘i are among the most diverse in the world. As the global climate warms, it is important to understand observed rainfall variations to provide context for future changes. This is especially important for isolated oceanic islands where freshwater resources are limited, and understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the supply of freshwater is critical. Utilizing a high-resolution gridded data set of monthly and annual rainfall for Hawai‘i from January 1920 to December 2012, seasonal and annual trends were calculated for every 250-m pixel across the state and mapped to produce spatially continuous trend maps. To assess the stability of these trends, a running trend analysis was performed on 34 selected stations. From 1920 to 2012, over 90% of the state experienced drying trends, with Hawai‘i Island, and in particular the western part of the island, experiencing the largest significant long-term declines in annual and dry season rainfall. The running trend analysis highlighted the multi-decadal variability present in these trends, and revealed that the only region in the state with persistent annual and dry season trends through the study period is the western part of Hawai‘i Island; for most other regions, the drying trends were not significant until the most recent part of the record was included. These results support previous studies that indicate drying across the state over recent decades, and reveal the timing of upward and downward trends as well as important spatial details for natural resource management in Hawai‘i.
Keywords: Rainfall trends Hawai‘i Mann–Kendall running trend analysis

Freddie Mac April 2016 Insight: Life's a Beach - Freddie Mac (2016)
Keywords: added by ERG

Insight: Life's a beach - Freddie Mac (Freddie Mac, 2016)

The burden of dengue and chikungunya worldwide: Implications for the southern United States and California - Fredericks, Anthony C.; Fernandez-Sesma, Ana (Annals of Global Health, 2014)
Keywords: arbovirus antiviral California chikungunya dengue flavivirus vaccine

Climate change and U.S. interests - Freeman, Jody; Guzman, Andrew (Environmental Law Review, 2011)

Environmental change, migration, and conflict in Africa: A critical examination of the interconnections - Freeman, Laura (The Journal of Environment & Development, 2017)
How should we understand the interconnections between environmental change, migration, and conflict in Africa? Should the rise of Islamic terrorism and Boko Haram in northeast Nigeria be directly linked to the drying of Lake Chad? Should cattle raiding in Kenya be seen as a result of drought across East Africa? Does the constrained migration of the pastoral Tuareg in the Sahel causally connect to desertification and their rebellion against governmental forces? Despite the compelling and often persuasive case for directly connecting environmental change to migration and conflict, there is a growing agreement in both the environment-migration and climate-conflict spheres that intervening variables determine if and how environmental change causes population movements and political violence. This article presents a case for migration as an intermediary and bidirectional causal variable. The article argues that close attention needs to be paid to local-level manifestations of conflict and (mal)adaptive forms of migration to understand the potential propensity of environmental change to lead to conflict in Africa.
Keywords: environmental change,climate change,migration,conflict,constrained migration,Africa

The seasonal nature of extreme hydrological events in the northeastern United States - Frei, Allan; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Matonse, Adao (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2015)
Recent analyses of extreme hydrological events across the United States, including those summarized in the recent U.S. Third National Climate Assessment (May 2014), show that extremely large (extreme) precipitation and streamflow events are increasing over much of the country, with particularly steep trends over the northeastern United States. The authors demonstrate that the increase in extreme hydrological events over the northeastern United States is primarily a warm season phenomenon and is caused more by an increase in frequency than magnitude. The frequency of extreme warm season events peaked during the 2000s; a secondary peak occurred during the 1970s; and the calmest decade was the 1960s. Cold season trends during the last 30–50 yr are weaker. Since extreme precipitation events in this region tend to be larger during the warm season than during the cold season, trend analyses based on annual precipitation values are influenced more by warm season than by cold season trends. In contrast, the magnitude of extreme streamflow events at stations used for climatological analyses tends to be larger during the cold season: therefore, extreme event analyses based on annual streamflow values are overwhelmingly influenced by cold season, and therefore weaker, trends. These results help to explain an apparent discrepancy in the literature, whereby increasing trends in extreme precipitation events appear to be significant and ubiquitous across the region, while trends in streamflow appear less dramatic and less spatially coherent.
Keywords: Climate variability,Hydrology,Hydrometeorology,Water budget,Multidecadal variability

Will environmental changes reinforce the impact of global warming on the prairie–forest border of central North America? - Frelich, Lee E.; Reich, Peter B. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2010)

Desalination in Pacific Island Countries. A Preliminary Overview - Freshwater, Alan; Talagi, Deveraux (South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC), 2010)

Under Water: How Sea Level Rise Threatens the Tri-State Region - Freudenberg, Robert; Montemayor, Lucrecia; Calvin, Ellis; Korman, Emily; McCoy, Sarabrent; Michaelson, Julieet; Jones, Chris; Barone, Richard; Gates, Moses; Pollack, Wendy; Oldenburg, Ben (Regional Plan Association, 2016)

Recent variability in sea ice cover, age, and thickness in the Pacific Arctic region - Frey, Karen E.; Maslanik, James A.; Kinney, Jaclyn Clement; Maslowski, Wieslaw (The Pacific Arctic Region, 2014)

Appendix A: Regional summaries: Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands - Friday, J. B.; Friday, Kathleen; Elevitch, Craig (Agroforestry: Enhancing Resiliency in U.S. Agricultural Landscapes Under Changing Conditions, 2017)

Agroforestry in the Climate of the Marshall Islands - Friday, Kathleen; Garcia, Victor, Jr.; Haws, Maria; Manner, Harley; Marra, John; Potemra, James T.; Rufus, Lajkit (2017)
Keywords: ENSO Republic of the Marshall Islands agriculture tools

A tale of two springs: Using recent climate anomalies to characterize the sensitivity of temperate forest phenology to climate change - Friedl, Mark A.; Gray, Josh M.; Melaas, Eli K.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Hufkens, Koen; Keenan, Trevor F.; Bailey, Amey; O’Keefe, John (Environmental Research Letters, 2014)
By the end of this century, mean annual temperatures in the Northeastern United States are expected to warm by 3–5 °C, which will have significant impacts on the structure and function of temperate forests in this region. To improve understanding of these impacts, we exploited two recent climate anomalies to explore how the springtime phenology of Northeastern temperate deciduous forests will respond to future climate warming. Specifically, springtime temperatures in 2010 and 2012 were the warmest on record in the Northeastern United States, with temperatures that were roughly equivalent to the lower end of warming scenarios that are projected for this region decades from now. Climate conditions in these two years therefore provide a unique empirical basis, that complements model-based studies, for improving understanding of how northeastern temperate forest phenology will change in the future. To perform our investigation, we analyzed near surface air temperatures from the United States Historical Climatology Network, time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and in situ phenological observations. Our study region encompassed the northern third of the eastern temperate forest ecoregion, extending from Pennsylvania to Canada. Springtime temperatures in 2010 and 2012 were nearly 3 °C warmer than long-term average temperatures from 1971–2000 over the region, leading to median anomalies of more than 100 growing degree days. In response, satellite and ground observations show that leaf emergence occurred up to two weeks earlier than normal, but with significant sensitivity to the specific timing of thermal forcing. These results are important for two reasons. First, they provide an empirical demonstration of the sensitivity of springtime phenology in northeastern temperate forests to future climate change that supports and complements model-based predictions. Second, our results show that subtle differences in the character of thermal forcing can substantially alter the timing of leaf emergence and canopy development. By explicitly comparing and contrasting the timing of thermal forcing and leaf phenology in 2010 and 2012, we show that even though temperatures were warmer in 2012 than in 2010, the nature and timing of thermal forcing in 2010 lead to leaf emergence that was almost a week earlier than 2012.

Spring bloom dynamics and zooplankton biomass response on the US Northeast Continental Shelf - Friedland, Kevin D.; Leaf, Robert T.; Kane, Joe; Tommasi, Desiree; Asch, Rebecca G.; Rebuck, Nathan; Ji, Rubao; Large, Scott I.; Stock, Charles; Saba, Vincent S. (Continental Shelf Research, 2015)
Keywords: Spring bloom US Northeast Shelf Zooplankton biomass Bloom timing Climate

Variation in wind and piscivorous predator fields affecting the survival of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in the Gulf of Maine - Friedland, K. D.; Manning, J. P.; Link, J. S.; Gilbert, J. R.; Gilbert, A. T.; O’Connell, A. F. (Fisheries Management and Ecology, 2012)
Keywords: climate migration post-smolt survival predation recruitment temperature

Seasonal phytoplankton blooms in the North Atlantic linked to the overwintering strategies of copepods - Friedland, Kevin D.; Record, Nicholas R.; Asch, Rebecca G.; Kristiansen, Trond; Saba, Vincent S.; Drinkwater, Kenneth F.; Henson, Stephanie; Leaf, Robert T.; Morse, Ryan E.; Johns, David G.; Large, Scott I.; Hjøllo, Solfrid S.; et al. (Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2016)

Pathways between primary production and fisheries yields of large marine ecosystems - Friedland, Kevin D.; Stock, Charles; Drinkwater, Kenneth F.; Link, Jason S.; Leaf, Robert T.; Shank, Burton V.; Rose, Julie M.; Pilskaln, Cynthia H.; Fogarty, Michael J. (PLOS ONE, 2012)
The shift in marine resource management from a compartmentalized approach of dealing with resources on a species basis to an approach based on management of spatially defined ecosystems requires an accurate accounting of energy flow. The flow of energy from primary production through the food web will ultimately limit upper trophic-level fishery yields. In this work, we examine the relationship between yield and several metrics including net primary production, chlorophyll concentration, particle-export ratio, and the ratio of secondary to primary production. We also evaluate the relationship between yield and two additional rate measures that describe the export of energy from the pelagic food web, particle export flux and mesozooplankton productivity. We found primary production is a poor predictor of global fishery yields for a sample of 52 large marine ecosystems. However, chlorophyll concentration, particle-export ratio, and the ratio of secondary to primary production were positively associated with yields. The latter two measures provide greater mechanistic insight into factors controlling fishery production than chlorophyll concentration alone. Particle export flux and mesozooplankton productivity were also significantly related to yield on a global basis. Collectively, our analyses suggest that factors related to the export of energy from pelagic food webs are critical to defining patterns of fishery yields. Such trophic patterns are associated with temperature and latitude and hence greater yields are associated with colder, high latitude ecosystems.

Application of Hawaiian traditions to community-based fishery management - Friedlander, Alan; Poepoe, K.; Helm, K.; Bartram, P.; Maragos, J.; Abbott, I. (Proceedings of the Ninth International Coral Reef Symposium, Bali, 23-27 Oct. 2000. Vol. 2, 2000)
The community in the Ho‘olehu Hawaiian Homesteads on the island of Moloka‘i is strengthening community influence and accountability for the health and long-term sustainability of their marine resources through revitalization of local traditions and resource knowledge. The traditional system in Hawai‘i emphasized social and cultural controls on fishing with acode of conduct that was strictly enforced. Local resource monitors, in conjunction with visiting scientists, are creating a predictive management tool based loosely on the Hawaiian moon calendar to guide responsible fishing practices. Community-sanctioned norms for fishing conduct are being reinforced through continual feedback based on local resource monitoring, education, and peer pressure. Hawaiian community building and proper cultural protocols are essential to understand and revitalize marine conservation traditions.

Long-term climate implications of twenty-first century options for carbon dioxide emission mitigation - Friedlingstein, P.; Solomon, S.; Plattner, G. K.; Knutti, R.; Ciais, P.; Raupach, M. R. (Nature Climate Change, 2011)

Influence of test size, water depth, and ecology on Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, δ18 O and δ13 C in nine modern species of planktic foraminifers - Friedrich, Oliver; Schiebel, Ralf; Wilson, Paul A.; Weldeab, Syee; Beer, Christopher J.; Cooper, Matthew J.; Fiebig, Jens (Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2012)
Keywords: Mg/Ca planktic foraminifera ecology dissolution core-top plankton tow

The impact of drought on the association between food security and mental health in a nationally representative Australian sample - Friel, Sharon; Berry, Helen; Dinh, Huong; O’Brien, Léan; Walls, Helen L. (BMC Public Health, 2014)
The association between food insecurity and mental health is established. Increasingly, associations between drought and mental health and drought and food insecurity have been observed in a number of countries. The impact of drought on the association between food insecurity and mental health has received little attention.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2 - Friend, Andrew D.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T.; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D.; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014)
Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

Gauging perceptions of ocean acidification in Alaska - Frisch, L. C.; Mathis, J. T.; Kettle, N. P.; Trainor, S. F. (Marine Policy, 2015)
Keywords: Ocean acidification Public understanding Risk perception Alaska fisheries

Ch. 11: Agriculture and ranching - Frisvold, G.; Jackson, L.E.; Pritchett, J.G.; Ritten, J. (Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, 2013)

The contribution of mesoscale convective weather systems to the warm-season precipitation in the United States - Fritsch, J. M.; Kane, R. J.; Chelius, C. R. (Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 1986)
The contribution of precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems to the warm-season (April–September) rainfall in the United States is evaluated. Both Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC's) and other large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems that do not quite meet Maddox's criteria for being termed an MCC are included in the evaluation. The distribution and geographical limits of the precipitation from the convective weather systems are constructed for the warm seasons of 1982, a “normal” year, and 1983, a drought year. Precipitation characteristics of the systems are compared for the 2 years to determine how large-scale drought patterns affect their precipitation production. The frequency, precipitation characteristics and hydrologic ramifications of multiple occurrences, or series, of convective weather systems are presented and discussed. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the accumulated precipitation from a series of convective complexes is investigated and compared to that of Hurricane Alicia. It is found that mesoscale convective weather systems account for approximately 30% to 70% of the warm-season (April–September) precipitation over much of the region between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River. During the June through August period, their contribution is even larger. Moreover, series of convective weather systems are very likely the most prolific precipitation producer in the United States, rivaling and even exceeding that of hurricanes. Changes in the large-scale circulation patterns affected the seasonal precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems by altering the precipitation characteristics of individual systems. In particular, for the drought period of 1983, the frequency of the convective systems remained nearly the same as in the “normal” year (1982); however, the average precipitation area and the average volumetric production significantly decreased. Nevertheless, the rainfall that was produced by mesoscale convective weather systems in the drought year accounted for most of the precipitation received during the critical crop growth period. It is concluded that mesoscale convective weather systems may be a crucial precipitation-producing deterrent to drought and an important mechanism for enhancing midsummer crop growth throughout the midwestern United States. Furthermore, because mesoscale convective weather systems account for such a large fraction of the warm-season precipitation, significant improvements in prediction of such systems would likely translate into significant improvements in quantitative precipitation forecast skill and corresponding improvements in hydrologic forecasts of runoff.

Vibrio bacteria in raw oysters: Managing risks to human health - Froelich, Brett A.; Noble, Rachel T. (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2016)
The human-pathogenic marine bacteria Vibrio vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus are strongly correlated with water temperature, with concentrations increasing as waters warm seasonally. Both of these bacteria can be concentrated in filter-feeding shellfish, especially oysters. Because oysters are often consumed raw, this exposes people to large doses of potentially harmful bacteria. Various models are used to predict the abundance of these bacteria in oysters, which guide shellfish harvest policy meant to reduce human health risk. Vibrio abundance and behaviour varies from site to site, suggesting that location-specific studies are needed to establish targeted risk reduction strategies. Moreover, virulence potential, rather than simple abundance, should be also be included in future modeling efforts.

Emerging risks from marine heat waves - Frölicher, Thomas L.; Laufkötter, Charlotte (Nature Communications, 2018)
Recent marine heat waves have caused devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Substantial progress in understanding past and future changes in marine heat waves and their risks for marine ecosystems is needed to predict how marine systems, and the goods and services they provide, will evolve in the future.

Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors - Frölicher, Thomas L.; Rodgers, Keith B.; Stock, Charles A.; Cheung, William W. L. (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2016)
Keywords: marine ecosystems climate change large ensemble internal variability Earth system modeling uncertainty 0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 1616 Climate variability 1635 Oceans 1622 Earth system modeling

Ch. 3: Marine impacts - Frumhoff, Peter C.; McCarthy, James J.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Moser, Susanne C.; Wuebbles, Donald J. (Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions. Synthesis Report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA), 2007)

Completion of the 2006 national land cover database for the conterminous United States - Fry, J.A.; Xian, G.; Jin, S.; Dewitz, J.A.; Homer, C.G.; Limin, Y.; Barnes, C.A.; Herold, N.D.; Wickham, J.D. (Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 2011)

Paternalism versus sovereignty: The long-run economic effects of the Indian Reorganization Act - Frye, Dustin; Parker, Dominic P. (Unlocking the Wealth of Indian Nations, 2016)

Leasing, Law, and Land Tenure: Understanding the Impact of the Long-Term Leasing Act of 1955 on Indian Land Holdings - Frye, Dustin D. (SSRN, 2012)

Positive but variable sensitivity of August surface ozone to large-scale warming in the southeast United States - Fu, Tzung-May; Zheng, Yiqi; Paulot, Fabien; Mao, Jingqiu; Yantosca, Robert M. (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Changing laws for the better—Recognizing tribal sovereignty - Fugate, Craig (FEMA.gov, 2013)

The persistence of populations facing climate shifts and harvest - Fuller, Emma; Brush, Eleanor; Pinsky, Malin L. (Ecosphere, 2015)
Keywords: climate change climate velocity cumulative impacts fishing integrodifference model multiple disturbances Sebastes melanops synergy

Posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, and alcohol and tobacco use in public health workers after the 2004 Florida hurricanes - Fullerton, Carol S.; McKibben, Jodi B. A.; Reissman, Dori B.; Scharf, Ted; Kowalski-Trakofler, Kathleen M.; Shultz, James M.; Ursano, Robert J. (Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 2013)
ObjectiveWe examined the relationship of probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), probable depression, and increased alcohol and/or tobacco use to disaster exposure and work demand in Florida Department of Health workers after the 2004 hurricanes.MethodsParticipants (N = 2249) completed electronic questionnaires assessing PTSD, depression, alcohol and tobacco use, hurricane exposure, and work demand.ResultsTotal mental and behavioral health burden (probable PTSD, probable depression, increased alcohol and/or tobacco use) was 11%. More than 4% had probable PTSD, and 3.8% had probable depression. Among those with probable PTSD, 29.2% had increased alcohol use, and 50% had increased tobacco use. Among those with probable depression, 34% indicated increased alcohol use and 55.6% increased tobacco use. Workers with greater exposure were more likely to have probable PTSD and probable depression (ORs = 3.3 and 3.06, respectively). After adjusting for demographics and work demand, those with high exposure were more likely to have probable PTSD and probable depression (ORs = 3.21 and 3.13). Those with high exposure had increased alcohol and tobacco use (ORs = 3.01 and 3.40), and those with high work demand indicated increased alcohol and tobacco use (ORs = 1.98 and 2.10). High exposure and work demand predicted increased alcohol and tobacco use, after adjusting for demographics, work demand, and exposure.ConclusionsWork-related disaster mental and behavioral health burden indicate the need for additional mental health interventions in the public health disaster workforce.(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2013;7:89-95)
Keywords: PTSD depression alcohol use public health workers hurricane

Effects of sea-level rise on northern elephant seal breeding habitat at Point Reyes Peninsula, California - Funayama, Kota; Hines, Ellen; Davis, Jerry; Allen, Sarah (Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 2013)
Keywords: elephant seals Mirounga angustirostris habitat management marine protected areas habitat modelling climate change sea-level rise

Research for Global Sustainability: Annual Report 2016–17 - Future Earth (Future Earth (FE) Secretariat, 2017)

Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States - Fyfe, John C.; Derksen, Chris; Mudryk, Lawrence; Flato, Gregory M.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Swart, Neil C.; Molotch, Noah P.; Zhang, Xuebin; Wan, Hui; Arora, Vivek K.; Scinocca, John; Jiao, Yanjun (Nature Communications, 2017)

Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century - Gabler, Christopher A.; Osland, Michael J.; Grace, James B.; Stagg, Camille L.; Day, Richard H.; Hartley, Stephen B.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Meagan L.; McLeod, Jennie L. (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Linkages between human health and ocean health: A participatory climate change vulnerability assessment for marine mammal harvesters - Gadamus, Lily (International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 2013)

A Bering Strait indigenous framework for resource management: Respectful seal and walrus hunting - Gadamus, Lily; Raymond-Yakoubian, J. (Arctic Anthropology, 2015)

Building an indigenous evidence-base for tribally-led habitat conservation policies - Gadamus, Lily; Raymond-Yakoubian, Julie; Ashenfelter, Roy; Ahmasuk, Austin; Metcalf, Vera; Noongwook, George (Marine Policy, 2015)
Keywords: Qualitative methods TEK Traditional ecological knowledge Environmental social science Marine mammals Climate change Habitat conservation

Increased summertime heat stress in the US - Gaffen, Dian J.; Ross, Rebecca J. (Nature, 1998)

Adapting to climate change through urban green infrastructure - Gaffin, Stuart R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Kong, Angela Y. Y. (Nature Climate Change, 2012)

Combining stock, multispecies, and ecosystem level fishery objectives within an operational management procedure: Simulations to start the conversation - Gaichas, Sarah K.; Fogarty, Michael; Fay, Gavin; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Smith, Laurel (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2017)
We explored alternative status determination criteria and reference points that could simplify fisheries management using a simulated multispecies/ecosystem-based operational management procedure. There are four components to the procedure: (i) limit total removals from the ecosystem; (ii) allocate the total removals limit among aggregate species groups; (iii) maintain individual species above minimum stock size thresholds; and (iv) optimize the species mix (within aggregates) based on bio-economic portfolio analysis. In this procedure, “overfishing” criteria are applied only to aggregates of species at the ecosystem and group level, but “overfished” criteria apply at the species/stock level. Previous work using multispecies production models identified conditions where conservation and yield objectives could be balanced: aggregations of species with similar life histories, species interactions, and responses to environmental forcing supported the highest yields while minimizing risks that individual stocks dropped below biomass thresholds. Here, we use a more complex length structured multispecies, multifleet simulation model to explore management procedure steps (i)–(iii). Different species aggregation rules were applied (single species, functional groups, and full system), and yield curves were constructed for each aggregation level by sequentially increasing effort in each of the fleets (alone and simultaneously), while recruitment for each species varied stochastically around a function based on spawning stock biomass. The performance of individual species and each aggregate type was then compared with respect to yield, biomass, and economic revenue objectives under changing environmental conditions. Our results evaluate the trade-offs between these objectives for the 10 species in the simulated system. Overall we found that there are aggregate catch limits that can both maximize yield and revenue while conserving biomass. However, community composition and revenue trade-off over a range of fishing effort. We consider this a starting point for further development with scientists, managers, fishermen, and other stakeholders in the region.
10.1093/icesjms/fsw119

Can integrated water resources management increase adaptive capacity to climate change adaptation? A critical review - Gain, Animesh K.; Rouillard, Josselin J.; Benson, David (Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 2013)

Conservation a growing focus for industrial plants as drought stirs fears - Galbraith, Kate (The Texas Tribune, 2012)

Autumn, the neglected season in climate change research - Gallinat, Amanda S.; Primack, Richard B.; Wagner, David L. (Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2015)
Keywords: phenology climate change fruit diapause leaf senescence migration

Which Baton Rouge ZIP codes were hit hardest? New data lends scope to flooding devastation - Gallo, Andrea (The Advocate, 2016)

Fish ecology and evolution in the world's oxygen minimum zones and implications of ocean deoxygenation - Gallo, N. D.; Levin, L. A. (Advances in Marine Biology, 2016)
Keywords: Oxygen-minimum zone Oxygen-limited zone Hypoxia Fish ecology Fish adaptations Fisheries Ocean deoxygenation Climate change

Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity - Gallopin, Gilberto C. (Global Environmental Change, 2006)

If stationarity is dead, what do we do now? - Galloway, Gerald E. (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2011)
Keywords: climate variability/change surface water hydrology planning water policy

Seasonal variation of acute gastro-intestinal illness by hydroclimatic regime and drinking water source: A retrospective population-based study - Galway, Lindsay P.; Allen, Diana M.; Parkes, Margot W.; Takaro, Tim K. (Journal of Water and Health, 2014)
Acute gastro-intestinal illness (AGI) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide and an important public health problem. Despite the fact that AGI is currently responsible for a huge burden of disease throughout the world, important knowledge gaps exist in terms of its epidemiology. Specifically, an understanding of seasonality and those factors driving seasonal variation remain elusive. This paper aims to assess variation in the incidence of AGI in British Columbia (BC), Canada over an 11-year study period. We assessed variation in AGI dynamics in general, and disaggregated by hydroclimatic regime and drinking water source. We used several different visual and statistical techniques to describe and characterize seasonal and annual patterns in AGI incidence over time. Our results consistently illustrate marked seasonal patterns; seasonality remains when the dataset is disaggregated by hydroclimatic regime and drinking water source; however, differences in the magnitude and timing of the peaks and troughs are noted. We conclude that systematic descriptions of infectious illness dynamics over time is a valuable tool for informing disease prevention strategies and generating hypotheses to guide future research in an era of global environmental change.

Gambell Local Economic Development Plan 2012-2017 - Gambell Planning Organizations; Kawerak Community Planning and Development (Kawerak, Inc., 2012)

Ch. 9: Populations of concern - Gamble, Janet L.; Balbus, John; Berger, Martha; Bouye, Karen; Campbell, Vince; Chief, Karletta; Conlon, Kathryn; Crimmins, Allison; Flanagan, Barry; Gonzalez-Maddux, Cristina; Hallisey, Elaine; Hutchins, Sonja; et al. (The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, 2016)

Climate change and older Americans: State of the science - Gamble, J. L.; Hurley, B. J.; Schultz, P. A.; Jaglom, W. S.; Krishnan, N.; Harris, M. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2013)
BACKGROUND: Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. METHODS: We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. DISCUSSION: A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. CONCLUSIONS: Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors.
Gamble, Janet L Hurley, Bradford J Schultz, Peter A Jaglom, Wendy S Krishnan, Nisha Harris, Melinda United States Environ Health Perspect. 2013 Jan;121(1):15-22. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1205223. Epub 2012 Oct 2.
Keywords: Aged Aged, 80 and over Climate Change Humans Risk Assessment Socioeconomic Factors United States

Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: Statistical evidence from France - Gammans, Matthew; Mérel, Pierre; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring–summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.

Changes in North American snowpacks for 1979–2007 detected from the snow water equivalent data of SMMR and SSM/I passive microwave and related climatic factors - Gan, Thian Yew; Barry, Roger G.; Gizaw, Mesgana; Gobena, Adam; Balaji, Rajagopalan (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2013)
Keywords: Kendall non-parametric test principal component analysis climate anomalies snow water equivalent SMMR and SSM/I passive microwave data North America 0736 Snow 0758 Remote sensing 1630 Impacts of global change 1863 Snow and ice 1807 Climate impacts

Direct and indirect effects of alien insect herbivores on ecological processes and interactions in forests of eastern North America - Gandhi, Kamal J. K.; Herms, Daniel A. (Biological Invasions, 2010)
Alien invasive insects such as gypsy moth, hemlock woolly adelgid, and emerald ash borer continue to disturb the mixed deciduous and hemlock forests of eastern North America by causing wide-scale defoliation, decline and/or mortality of their hosts. Some of the most devastating species are spreading in “defense free space”, causing extensive mortality of hosts that are inherently susceptible, perhaps due to their lack of coevolutionary history with the invader. These disturbances have altered the dynamics of canopy gaps, coarse woody debris, biogeochemical cycling, and ecological interactions among organisms in terrestrial and aquatic systems, with consequent effects on forest composition, structure, and function. Populations of indigenous species specialized to particular habitats and/or host trees are most likely to decrease, while some generalist and opportunistic species may increase in invaded forests, including exotic plants as their facilitation by alien insects sparks an “invasional meltdown”. Although poorly documented, alien insects may induce positive feedback effects on ecological processes and interactions. For example, effects of herbivory on foliar chemistry may indirectly alter tri-trophic interactions of indigenous herbivores on their shared hosts, slow rates of terrestrial nutrient cycling, and decrease productivity of aquatic habitats based on allochthonous inputs. Tactics used to eradicate or suppress alien insects in forests such as insecticide applications, biological control, and silvicultural prescriptions can also have ecological impacts. As alien insects continue to establish and spread in forests of eastern North America, their already pervasive effects on ecological interactions and ecosystem processes will continue to magnify.

Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes - Ganju, Neil K.; Defne, Zafer; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Fagherazzi, Sergio; D’Alpaos, Andrea; Carniello, Luca (Nature Communcations, 2017)

Physical–digital integration in city infrastructure - Gann, D. M.; Dodgson, M.; Bhardwaj, D. (IBM Journal of Research and Development, 2011)
Keywords: Buildings Investments Technological innovation Telecommunication network management Transportation Urban areas

Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception - Ganopolski, A.; Winkelmann, R.; Schellnhuber, H. J. (Nature, 2016)

Alaska Native Villages: Most Are Affected by Flooding and Erosion, but Few Qualify for Federal Assistance - GAO (U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO), 2003)

Disaster Assistance: Better Planning Needed for Housing Victims of Catastrophic Disasters - GAO (U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), 2007)

Alaska Native Villages: Limited Progress Has Been Made on Relocating Villages Threatened by Flooding and Erosion - GAO (U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2009)

FEMA: Action Needed to Improve Administration of the National Flood Insurance Program - GAO (U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2011)

Flood Insurance: Participation of Indian Tribes in Federal and Private Programs. Report to Congressional Committees - GAO (U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), 2013)

Climate Change: Energy Infrastructure Risks and Adaptation Efforts - GAO (Government Accounting Office (GAO), 2014)

Indian Irrigation Projects: Deferred Maintenance and Financial Sustainability Issues Remain Unresolved. Testimony Before the Committee on Indian Affairs, U.S. Senate, by Anne-Marie Fennell - GAO (U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), 2015)

Climate Change: Selected Governments Have Approached Adaptation Through Laws and Long-Term Plans - GAO (U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), 2016)

Climate Change: Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure - GAO (Government Accounting Office (GAO), 2017)

Public health co-benefits of greenhouse gas emissions reduction: A systematic review - Gao, Jinghong; Kovats, Sari; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Li, Jing; Gu, Shaohua; Liu, Xiaobo; Wu, Haixia; Wang, Jun; Song, Xiaoqin; Zhai, Yunkai; et al. (Science of the Total Environment, 2018)
Keywords: Air pollution Climate change Greenhouse gas emissions Health co-benefits Mitigation Uncertainty

Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America - Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby; Yang, Qing; Hagos, Samson; Qian, Yun (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: atmospheric rivers climate change thermodynamic effects dynamical effects increased moisture 1655 Water cycles 1610 Atmosphere 1817 Extreme events 3305 Climate change and variability 3337 Global climate models

Climate change impacts on soil and water conservation - Garbrecht, Jurgen D.; Steiner, Jean L.; Cox, Craig A. (Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 2007)
Keywords: 9815 Notices and announcements

The times they are changing: Soil and water conservation in the 21st century - Garbrecht, Jurgen D.; Steiner, Jean L.; Cox, Craig A. (Hydrological Processes, 2007)

A review of fleet-based life-cycle approaches focusing on energy and environmental impacts of vehicles - Garcia, Rita; Freire, Fausto (Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017)
Keywords: Electric vehicles Energy consumption Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) Life-cycle assessment (LCA) Vehicle fleets

Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity - García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S; Schoeman, David S; Brown, Christopher J; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Richardson, Anthony J; Burrows, Michael T (Nature Climate Change, 2015)