The role of natural variability in projections of climate change impacts on U.S. ozone pollution - Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: ozone air pollution climate change impacts natural variability model projections 0345 Pollution: urban and regional 1616 Climate variability 1807 Climate impacts 3305 Climate change and variability

U.S. air quality and health benefits from avoided climate change under greenhouse gas mitigation - Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Saari, Rebecca K.; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2015)

Quercus pollen season dynamics in the Iberian peninsula: Response to meteorological parameters and possible consequences of climate change - Garcia-Mozo, H.; Galán, C.; Jato, V.; Belmonte, J.; de la Guardia, C.D.; Fernández, D.; Gutiérrez, M.; Aira, M.J.; Roure, J.M.; Ruiz, L.; Trigo, M.M.; Domínguez-Vilches, E. (Annals of Agricultural and Environmental Medicine, 2006)
The main characteristics of the Quercus pollination season were studied in 14 different localities of the Iberian Peninsula from 1992-2004. Results show that Quercus flowering season has tended to start earlier in recent years, probably due to the increased temperatures in the pre-flowering period, detected at study sites over the second half of the 20th century. A Growing Degree Days forecasting model was used, together with future meteorological data forecast using the Regional Climate Model developed by the Hadley Meteorological Centre, in order to determine the expected advance in the start of Quercus pollination in future years. At each study site, airborne pollen curves presented a similar pattern in all study years, with different peaks over the season attributable in many cases to the presence of several species. High pollen concentrations were recorded, particularly at Mediterranean sites. This study also proposes forecasting models to predict both daily pollen values and annual pollen emission. All models were externally validated using data for 2001 and 2004, with acceptable results. Finally, the impact of the highly-likely climate change on Iberian Quercus pollen concentration values was studied by applying RCM meteorological data for different future years, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2099. Results indicate that under a doubled CO(2) scenario at the end of the 21st century Quercus pollination season could start on average one month earlier and airborne pollen concentrations will increase by 50 % with respect to current levels, with higher values in Mediterranean inland areas.
Garcia-Mozo, Herminia Galan, Carmen Jato, Victoria Belmonte, Jordina de la Guardia, Consuelo Fernandez, Delia Gutierrez, Montserrat Aira, M Roure, Joan Ruiz, Luis Trigo, Mar Dominguez-Vilches, Eugenio Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Poland Ann Agric Environ Med. 2006;13(2):209-24.
Keywords: Air Pollutants/*analysis Air Pollution/*analysis Allergens/*analysis Climate Environmental Monitoring/*methods Forecasting Humans Hypersensitivity/prevention & control *Pollen *Quercus Retrospective Studies Seasons Spain

Ch. 20: Southwest - Garfin, Gregg; Franco, Guido; Blanco, Hilda; Comrie, Andrew; Gonzalez, Patrick; Piechota, Thomas; Smyth, Rebecca; Waskom, Reagan (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment - Garfin, Gregg; Jardine, A.; Merideth, R.; Black, Mary; LeRoy, Sarah (Island Press, 2013)

Rio Grande/Bravo: Climate Impacts and Outlook - Garfin, Gregg; LeRoy, Sarah; Shafer, Mark; Muth, Meredith; Murphy, Victor; Palomo, Isaac; Ibarra, Martin; Ledesma, Idalia; Chable, Alberto; Pascual, Reynaldo; Lopez, Minerva; Martinez, Julio.; et al. (CLIMAS, 2018)

Rio Grande/Bravo Impactos Climáticos y Perspectivas - Garfin, Gregg; LeRoy, Sarah; Shafer, Mark; Muth, Meredith; Murphy, Victor; Palomo, Isaac; Ibarra, Martin; Ledesma, Idalia; Chable, Alberto; Pascual, Reynaldo; Lopez, Minerva; Martinez, Julio.; et al. (CLIMAS, 2018)

Developing an Integrated Heat Health Information System for Long-Term Resilience to Climate and Weather Extremes in the El Paso-Juárez-Las Cruces Region - Garfin, Gregg M.; LeRoy, Sarah; Jones, Hunter (Institute of the Environment, 2017)

Recent Hadley cell expansion: The role of internal atmospheric variability in reconciling modeled and observed trends - Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Polvani, Lorenzo M. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: Hadley Cell chemistry-climate interactions climate change 1610 Atmosphere 1620 Climate dynamics 1626 Global climate models 3305 Climate change and variability 3362 Stratosphere/troposphere interactions

Status Review of the Pacific Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) - Garlich-Miller, Joel; MacCracken, James G.; Snyder, Jonathan; Meehan, Rosa; Myers, Marilyn; Wilder, James M.; Lance, Ellen; Matz, Angela (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2011)

Genomic selection improves heat tolerance in dairy cattle - Garner, J. B.; Douglas, M. L.; Williams, S. R. O.; Wales, W. J.; Marett, L. C.; Nguyen, T. T. T.; Reich, C. M.; Hayes, B. J. (Scientific Reports, 2016)

Shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on land surface phenology - Garonna, Irene; de Jong, Rogier; Stöckli, Reto; Schmid, Bernhard; Schenkel, David; Schimel, David; Schaepman, Michael E. (Environmental Research Letters, 2018)
Land surface phenology (LSP), the study of seasonal dynamics of vegetated land surfaces from remote sensing, is a key indicator of global change, that both responds to and influences weather and climate. The effects of climatic changes on LSP depend on the relative importance of climatic constraints in specific regions—which are not well understood at global scale. Understanding the climatic constraints that underlie LSP is crucial for explaining climate change effects on global vegetation phenology. We used a combination of modelled and remotely-sensed vegetation activity records to quantify the interplay of three climatic constraints on land surface phenology (namely minimum temperature, moisture availability, and photoperiod), as well as the dynamic nature of these constraints. Our study examined trends and the relative importance of the three constrains at the start and the end of the growing season over eight global environmental zones, for the past three decades. Our analysis revealed widespread shifts in the relative importance of climatic constraints in the temperate and boreal biomes during the 1982–2011 period. These changes in the relative importance of the three climatic constraints, which ranged up to 8% since 1982 levels, varied with latitude and between start and end of the growing season. We found a reduced influence of minimum temperature on start and end of season in all environmental zones considered, with a biome-dependent effect on moisture and photoperiod constraints. For the end of season, we report that the influence of moisture has on average increased for both the temperate and boreal biomes over 8.99 million km 2 . A shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on LSP has implications both for understanding changes and for improving how they may be modelled at large scales.

The dry farming collaborative: Co-creating the future of how we manage water on our farms - Garrett, Amy (Rural Connections, 2017)

Governing an international transboundary river: Opportunism, safeguards, and drought adaptation in the Rio Grande - Garrick, Dustin Evan; Schlager, Edella; Villamayor-Tomas, Sergio (Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 2016)
We extend Bednar’s theory of a robust federation to examine the factors and institutions influencing the effectiveness of transboundary water governance in an international river basin. We examine the evolution and performance of drought adaptation in the Rio Grande/Bravo river basin of the United States and Mexico—two federal countries. Droughts and water shortages since 1990 have triggered opportunistic behavior by resource users and their governments. Analysis of case studies in three nested geographic contexts (internationally, interstate United States and interstate Mexico) generates evidence of opportunistic behavior and either limited or disputed compliance both internationally and within each country. Structural safeguards have stipulated powers and functions for water allocation and conflict resolution in all three settings, but roles and responsibilities are not clear during droughts. The limitations of structural, popular, and judicial safeguards have elevated the importance of joint monitoring, which we identify as a vital new form of safeguard.
10.1093/publius/pjw002

Forecasting climate change impacts on the distribution of wetland habitat in the Midwestern United states - Garris, Heath W.; Mitchell, Randall J.; Fraser, Lauchlan H.; Barrett, Linda R. (Global Change Biology, 2015)
Keywords: artificial neural network climate projections isothermality midwest modeling wetlands WorldClim

Urban surface effects on current and future climate - Garuma, Gemechu Fanta; Blanchet, Jean-Pierre; Girard, Éric; Leduc, Martin (Urban Climate, 2018)
Keywords: Urban climate Urban heat island Sensible heat Latent heat Surface albedo Urban fraction Rural fraction

Changes of the prevailing trade winds over the islands of Hawaii and the North Pacific - Garza, Jessica A.; Chu, Pao-Shin; Norton, Chase W.; Schroeder, Thomas A. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012)
Changes in the frequency and intensity of the prevailing northeast and east trade winds from 1973-2009 are analyzed from four land stations in the Hawaiian Islands. A nonparametric robust trend analysis indicates a downward trend in northeast trade wind frequency since 1973. At the Honolulu International Airport, northeast trade wind days usually occurred 291 days per year 37 years ago are observed to occur only 210 days per year in 2009. In contrast, the frequency of the east trade winds has increased over the past 37 years. Comparison of observations from four ocean buoys with land stations for the last 26 years (1984–2009) is presented. The northeast trade frequency is found to decrease for all eight stations while the east trade winds are found to increase in frequency. These results are similar to the longer (1973–2009) data set. Most buoys revealed an increase in trade wind speeds since 1984. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis II data are used to analyze surface winds and sea level pressure (SLP) over the north Pacific. A northeast to east shifting of winds and an increase in SLP is found to occur from the 1980s to the 2000s epoch. Linear trends in reanalysis II from 1980 to 2009 indicated a strengthening of northeast trade winds over the Hawaiian Islands and in the subtropical eastern North Pacific with an extension of increased northerlies off the California coast. Meanwhile, southeast trades in the eastern North Pacific reduced their strength. Changes in trades in the western Pacific are relatively small.
Keywords: Pacific Ocean Hawaii winds and waves 3309 Climatology 1704 Atmospheric sciences 1872 Time series analysis 1984 Statistical methods: Descriptive 5445 Meteorology Hawaii climate non-parametric test trade winds

Changes in susceptibility to heat during the summer: A multicountry analysis - Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Hashizume, Masahiro; Lavigne, Eric; Tobias, Aurelio; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D.; Leone, Michela; Michelozzi, Paola; Kan, Haidong; Tong, Shilu; Honda, Yasushi; et al. (American Journal of Epidemiology, 2016)
Few studies have examined the variation in mortality risk associated with heat during the summer. Here, we apply flexible statistical models to investigate the issue by using a large multicountry data set. We collected daily time-series data of temperature and mortality from 305 locations in 9 countries, in the period 1985–2012. We first estimated the heat-mortality relationship in each location with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models, using a bivariate spline to model the exposure-lag-response over lag 0–10. Estimates were then pooled by country through multivariate meta-analysis. Results provide strong evidence of a reduction in risk over the season. Relative risks for the 99th percentile versus the minimum mortality temperature were in the range of 1.15–2.03 in early summer. In late summer, the excess was substantially reduced or abated, with relative risks in the range of 0.97–1.41 and indications of wider comfort ranges and higher minimum mortality temperatures. The attenuation is mainly due to shorter lag periods in late summer. In conclusion, this multicountry analysis suggests a reduction of heat-related mortality risk over the summer, which can be attributed to several factors, such as true acclimatization, adaptive behaviors, or harvesting effects. These findings may have implications on public health policies and climate change health impact projections.

Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: A multicountry observational study - Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Hashizume, Masahiro; Lavigne, Eric; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Tobias, Aurelio; Tong, Shilu; Rocklöv, Joacim; Forsberg, Bertil; Leone, Michela; De Sario, Manuela; et al. (The Lancet, 2015)
Ch2

Discontinuous change in ice cover in Hudson Bay in the 1990s and some consequences for marine birds and their prey - Gaston, Anthony J.; Smith, Paul A.; Provencher, Jennifer F. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2012)
Gaston A. J., Smith, P. A., and Provencher, J. F. 2012. Discontinuous change in ice cover in Hudson Bay in the 1990s and some consequences for marine birds and their prey. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: .Arctic ice cover has changed strikingly since the mid-1990s, with the minimum ice extent in the northern hemisphere diminishing by 8.5% per decade since 1981. In the Canadian Arctic, ice cover in June and November showed a step change in the mid-1990s, with little reduction before that. There was a similar step change in northern Hudson Bay. A long-term dataset on marine birds at Coats Island, Nunavut, revealed that many changes in seabird biology also exhibited an abrupt change at, or soon after, the change in ice conditions. This applied to their diet that switched in the 1990s from one dominated by Arctic cod, Boreogadus saida, to one dominated by capelin, Mallotus villosus. Evidence from the proportion of Arctic cod in adult diets suggested that the length of the open-water season may be a good predictor of the switch between Arctic cod and capelin. Other changes, in nestling growth and population trend, may relate to the same ecosystem changes that led to the switch in diet. Abrupt changes, as in the breeding biology of murres at Coats Island, would seem to be characteristic of ecosystem alterations driven by climate change.
10.1093/icesjms/fss040

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios - Gattuso, J.-P.; Magnan, A.; Billé, R.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Howes, E. L.; Joos, F.; Allemand, D.; Bopp, L.; Cooley, S. R.; Eakin, C. M.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Kelly, R. P.; et al. (Science, 2015)
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions directly affect atmospheric chemistry but also have a strong influence on the oceans. Gattuso et al. review how the physics, chemistry, and ecology of the oceans might be affected based on two CO2 emission trajectories: one business as usual and one with aggressive reductions. Ocean warming, acidification, sea-level rise, and the expansion of oxygen minimum zones will continue to have distinct impacts on marine communities and ecosystems. The path that humanity takes regarding CO2 emissions will largely determine the severity of these phenomena.Science, this issue 10.1126/science.aac4722BACKGROUNDAlthough the ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change, this has great impacts on its fundamental physics and chemistry, with important consequences for ecosystems and people. Yet, despite the ocean’s critical role in regulating climate—and providing food security and livelihoods for millions of people—international climate negotiations have only minimally considered impacts on the ocean. Here, we evaluate changes to the ocean and its ecosystems, as well as to the goods and services they provide, under two contrasting CO2 scenarios: the current high-emissions trajectory (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP8.5) and a stringent emissions scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Copenhagen Accord of keeping mean global temperature increase below 2°C in the 21st century. To do this, we draw on the consensus science in the latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and papers published since the assessment.ADVANCESWarming and acidification of surface ocean waters will increase proportionately with cumulative CO2 emissions (see figure). Warm-water corals have already been affected, as have mid-latitude seagrass, high-latitude pteropods and krill, mid-latitude bivalves, and fin fishes. Even under the stringent emissions scenario (RCP2.6), warm-water corals and mid-latitude bivalves will be at high risk by 2100. Under our current rate of emissions, most marine organisms evaluated will have very high risk of impacts by 2100 and many by 2050. These results—derived from experiments, field observations, and modeling—are consistent with evidence from high-CO2 periods in the paleorecord.Impacts to the ocean’s ecosystem services follow a parallel trajectory. Services such as coastal protection and capture fisheries are already affected by ocean warming and acidification. The risks of impacts to these services increase with continued emissions: They are predicted to remain moderate for the next 85 years for most services under stringent emission reductions, but the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5) would put all ecosystem services we considered at high or very high risk over the same time frame. These impacts will be cumulative or synergistic with other human impacts, such as overexploitation of living resources, habitat destruction, and pollution. Fin fisheries at low latitudes, which are a key source of protein and income for millions of people, will be at high risk.OUTLOOKFour key messages emerge. First, the ocean strongly influences the climate system and provides important services to humans. Second, impacts on key marine and coastal organisms, ecosystems, and services are already detectable, and several will face high risk of impacts well before 2100, even under the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6). These impacts will occur across all latitudes, making this a global concern beyond the north/south divide. Third, immediate and substantial reduction of CO2 emissions is required to prevent the massive and mostly irreversible impacts on ocean ecosystems and their services that are projected with emissions greater than those in RCP2.6. Limiting emissions to this level is necessary to meet stated objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; a substantially different ocean would result from any less-stringent emissions scenario. Fourth, as atmospheric CO2 increases, protection, adaptation, and repair options for the ocean become fewer and less effective.The ocean provides compelling arguments for rapid reductions in CO2 emissions and eventually atmospheric CO2 drawdown. Hence, any new global climate agreement that does not minimize the impacts on the ocean will be inadequate.Changes in ocean physics and chemistry and impacts on organisms and ecosystem services according to stringent (RCP2.6) and high business-as-usual (RCP8.5) CO2 emissions scenarios.Changes in temperature (∆T) and pH (∆pH) in 2090 to 2099 are relative to preindustrial (1870 to 1899). Sea level rise (SLR) in 2100 is relative to 1901. RCP2.6 is much more favorable to the ocean, although important ecosystems, goods, and services remain vulnerable, and allows more-efficient management options. l, m, h: low, mid-, and high latitudes, respectively.The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.%U

Climate change in arid lands and Native American socioeconomic vulnerability: The case of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe - Gautam, Mahesh R.; Chief, Karletta; Smith, William J., Jr. (Climatic Change, 2013)

High waters: Floods of 2016 transformed Eastern Iowans' lives - Gazette Staff (The Gazette, 2017)

The Meaning of Ice: People and Sea Ice in Three Arctic Communities - Gearheard, Shari Fox; Kielsen Holm, Lene; Huntington, Henry P.; Leavitt, Joe Mello; Mahoney, Andrew R.; Oshima, Toku; Sanguya, Joelie (International Polar Institute (IPI) Press, 2013)

Tree ring evidence for limited direct CO2 fertilization of forests over the 20th century - Gedalof, Z.; Berg, Aaron A. (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2010)
The effect that rising atmospheric CO2 levels will have on forest productivity and water use efficiency remains uncertain, yet it has critical implications for future rates of carbon sequestration and forest distributions. Efforts to understand the effect that rising CO2 will have on forests are largely based on growth chamber studies of seedlings, and the relatively small number of FACE sites. Inferences from these studies are limited by their generally short durations, artificial growing conditions, unnatural step‐increases in CO2 concentrations, and poor replication. Here we analyze the global record of annual radial tree growth, derived from the International Tree ring Data Bank (ITRDB), for evidence of increasing growth rates that cannot be explained by climatic change alone, and for evidence of decreasing sensitivity to drought. We find that approximately 20 percent of sites globally exhibit increasing trends in growth that cannot be attributed to climatic causes, nitrogen deposition, elevation, or latitude, which we attribute to a direct CO2 fertilization effect. No differences were found between species in their likelihood to exhibit growth increases attributable to CO2 fertilization, although Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), the two most commonly sampled species in the ITRDB, exhibit a CO2 fertilization signal at frequencies very near their upper and lower confidence limits respectively. Overall these results suggest that CO2 fertilization of forests will not counteract emissions or slow warming in any substantial fashion, but do suggest that future forest dynamics may differ from those seen today depending on site conditions and individual species' responses to elevated CO2.

The present and future role of coastal wetland vegetation in protecting shorelines: Answering recent challenges to the paradigm - Gedan, Keryn B.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Wolanski, Eric; Barbier, Edward B.; Silliman, Brian R. (Climatic Change, 2011)
Keywords: Earth and Environmental Science

Climate–water quality relationships in Texas reservoirs - Gelca, Rodica; Hayhoe, Katharine; Scott‐Fleming, Ian; Crow, Caleb; Dawson, Dan; Patiño, Reynaldo (Hydrological Processes, 2016)
Water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and concentrations of salts in surface water bodies can be affected by the natural environment and local human activities such as surface and ground water withdrawals, land use and energy extraction, and variability and long‐term trends in atmospheric conditions including temperature and precipitation. Here, we quantify the relationship between 121 indicators of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation and 24 water quality parameters in 57 Texas reservoirs using observational data records covering the period 1960 to 2010. Over time scales ranging from 1 week to 2 years, we find that water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, chloride, sulfate, and phosphorus all show consistent correlations with atmospheric predictors, including high and low temperature extremes, dry days, heavy precipitation events, and mean temperature and precipitation. Based on these relationships combined with regional climate projections, we expect climate change to increase water temperatures, decrease dissolved oxygen levels, decrease pH, increase specific conductance, and increase levels of sulfate and chloride in Texas reservoirs. Over decadal time scales, this may affect aquatic ecosystems in the reservoirs, including altering the risk of conditions conducive to algae occurrence, as well as affecting the quality of water available for human consumption and recreation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sustainable bioenergy production from marginal lands in the US Midwest - Gelfand, Ilya; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, R. Cesar; Gross, Katherine L.; Robertson, G. Philip (Nature, 2013)
Keywords: Agriculture/*methods/statistics & numerical data Biofuels/statistics & numerical data/*supply & distribution Biomass Carbon Footprint/statistics & numerical data Cellulose/metabolism Crops, Agricultural/economics/growth & development Environmental Policy Ethanol/metabolism/supply & distribution Fossil Fuels/statistics & numerical data/utilization Greenhouse Effect/prevention & control/statistics & numerical data Michigan Midwestern United States Renewable Energy/*statistics & numerical data

Climate and security: Evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda - Gemenne, François; Barnett, Jon; Adger, W. Neil; Dabelko, Geoffrey D. (Climatic Change, 2014)
There are diverse linkages between climate change and security including risks of conflict, national security concerns, critical national infrastructure, geo-political rivalries and threats to human security. We review analysis of these domains from primary research and from policy prescriptive and advocacy sources. We conclude that much analysis over-emphasises deterministic mechanisms between climate change and security. Yet the climate-security nexus is more complex than it appears and requires attention from across the social sciences. We review the robustness of present social sciences analysis in assessing the causes and consequences of climate change on human security, and identify new areas of research. These new areas include the need to analyse the absence of conflict in the face of climate risks and the need to expand the range of issues accounted for in analysis of climate and security including the impacts of mitigation response on domains of security. We argue for the necessity of robust theories that explain causality and associations, and the need to include theories of asymmetric power relations in explaining security dimensions. We also highlight the dilemmas of how observations and historical analysis of climate and security dimensions may be limited as the climate changes in ways that present regions with unprecedented climate risks.

Estimations of hazardous convective weather in the United States using dynamical downscaling - Gensini, Vittorio A.; Mote, Thomas L. (Journal of Climate, 2014)
High-resolution (4 km; hourly) regional climate modeling is utilized to resolve March–May hazardous convective weather east of the U.S. Continental Divide for a historical climate period (1980–90). A hazardous convective weather model proxy is used to depict occurrences of tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and large hail at hourly intervals during the period of record. Through dynamical downscaling, the regional climate model does an admirable job of replicating the seasonal spatial shifts of hazardous convective weather occurrence during the months examined. Additionally, the interannual variability and diurnal progression of observed severe weather reports closely mimic cycles produced by the regional model. While this methodology has been tested in previous research, this is the first study to use coarse-resolution global climate model data to force a high-resolution regional model with continuous seasonal integration in the United States for purposes of resolving severe convection. Overall, it is recommended that dynamical downscaling play an integral role in measuring climatological distributions of severe weather, both in historical and future climates.
Keywords: Deep convection,Severe storms,Tornadoes,Climate variability,Climate models

GEO Strategic Plan 2016-2025: Implementing GEOSS - GEO (Group on Earth Observations (GEO), 2015)

Ch. 3: Water resources - Georgakakos, Aris; Fleming, Paul; Dettinger, Michael; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Richmond, T.C.; Reckhow, Ken; White, Kathleen; Yates, David (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions - Georgescu, M.; Morefield, P. E.; Bierwagen, B. G.; Weaver, C. P. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014)
Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1-2 degrees C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.
Keywords: urban Adaptation Projection climate change

State and Local Adaptation Plans - Georgetown Climate Center (2018)

Preparing for Climate Change Impacts in the Transportation Sector - Georgetown Climate Center (Georgetown Climate Center, 2018)

Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA - Gergel, Diana R.; Nijssen, Bart; Abatzoglou, John T.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Stumbaugh, Matt R. (Climatic Change, 2017)
We evaluate the implications of ten twenty-first century climate scenarios for snow, soil moisture, and fuel moisture across the conterminous western USA using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. A decline in mountain snowpack, an advance in the timing of spring melt, and a reduction in snow season are projected for five mountain ranges in the region. For the southernmost range (the White Mountains), spring snow at most elevations will disappear by the end of the twenty-first century. We investigate soil and fuel moisture changes for the five mountain ranges and for six lowland regions. The accelerated depletion of mountain snowpack due to warming leads to reduced summer soil moisture across mountain environments. Similarly, warmer and drier summers lead to decreases of up to 25% in dead fuel moisture across all mountain ranges. Collective declines in spring mountain snowpack, summer soil moisture, and fuel moisture across western mountain ranges will increase fire potential in flammability-limited forested systems where fuels are not limiting. Projected changes in fire potential in predominately fuel-limited systems at lower elevations are more uncertain given the confounding signals between projected changes in soil moisture and fuel moisture.

Rebuilding northern foodsheds, sustainable food systems, community well-being, and food security - Gerlach, S. Craig; Loring, Philip A. (International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 2013)

Preparing clients for climate change - Gerrard, Michael B. (GP Solo - American Bar Association, 2016)
Keywords: added by ERG

The Law of Adaptation to Climate Change: U.S. and International Aspects - Gerrard, Michael B.; Kuh, Katrina Fischer (ABA Book Publishing, 2012)

New York's new sea level rise projections will affect land use, infrastructure - Gerrard, Michael B.; McTiernan, Edward (New York Law Journal, 2017)

The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an increasing trend - Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Iacobellis, Sam F. (Journal of Climate, 2009)

Design for Climate Change - Gething, Bill; Puckett, Katie (RIBA Publishing, 2010)

The dam called Trouble - Getschow, George; Husinger, Nathan (The Dallas Morning News, 2015)

Carbon sequestration potential of extensive green roofs - Getter, Kristin L.; Rowe, D. Bradley; Robertson, G. Philip; Cregg, Bert M.; Andresen, Jeffrey A. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2009)

GRCS [web site] - GFCS (Global Framework for Climate Services (GRCS), 2017)

Large carbon release legacy from bark beetle outbreaks across Western United States - Ghimire, Bardan; Williams, Christopher A.; Collatz, G. James; Vanderhoof, Melanie; Rogan, John; Kulakowski, Dominik; Masek, Jeffrey G. (Global Change Biology, 2015)
Warmer conditions over the past two decades have contributed to rapid expansion of bark beetle outbreaks killing millions of trees over a large fraction of western United States (US) forests. These outbreaks reduce plant productivity by killing trees and transfer carbon from live to dead pools where carbon is slowly emitted to the atmosphere via heterotrophic respiration which subsequently feeds back to climate change. Recent studies have begun to examine the local impacts of bark beetle outbreaks in individual stands, but the full regional carbon consequences remain undocumented for the western US. In this study, we quantify the regional carbon impacts of the bark beetle outbreaks taking place in western US forests. The work relies on a combination of postdisturbance forest regrowth trajectories derived from forest inventory data and a process‐based carbon cycle model tracking decomposition, as well as aerial detection survey (ADS) data documenting the regional extent and severity of recent outbreaks. We find that biomass killed by bark beetle attacks across beetle‐affected areas in western US forests from 2000 to 2009 ranges from 5 to 15 Tg C yr−1 and caused a reduction of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of about 6.1–9.3 Tg C y−1 by 2009. Uncertainties result largely from a lack of detailed surveys of the extent and severity of outbreaks, calling out a need for improved characterization across western US forests. The carbon flux legacy of 2000–2009 outbreaks will continue decades into the future (e.g., 2040–2060) as committed emissions from heterotrophic respiration of beetle‐killed biomass are balanced by forest regrowth and accumulation.

Distance to store, food prices, and obesity in urban food deserts - Ghosh-Dastidar, Bonnie; Cohen, Deborah; Hunter, Gerald; Zenk, Shannon N.; Huang, Christina; Beckman, Robin; Dubowitz, Tamara (American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2014)

Case for Green Infrastructure: Joint-Industry White Paper - GI Team (Nature Conservancy for the Green Infrastructure (GI) Team, 2013)

Online rainfall atlas of Hawai‘i - Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Chen, Qi; Frazier, Abby G.; Price, Jonathan P.; Chen, Yi-Leng; Chu, Pao-Shin; Eischeid, Jon K.; Delparte, Donna M. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2013)
Keywords: Rainfall Hawaii freshwater

National Assessment of Shoreline Change: Historical Shoreline Change Along the North Coast of Alaska, U.S.–Canadian Border to Icy Cape - Gibbs, A.E.; Richmond, B.M. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2015)

Health benefits, ecological threats of low-carbon electricity - Gibon, Thomas; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Arvesen, Anders; Singh, Bhawna; Verones, Francesca (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
Stabilizing global temperature will require a shift to renewable or nuclear power from fossil power and the large-scale deployment of CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) for remaining fossil fuel use. Non-climate co-benefits of low-carbon energy technologies, especially reduced mortalities from air pollution and decreased ecosystem damage, have been important arguments for policies to reduce CO 2 emissions. Taking into account a wide range of environmental mechanisms and the complex interactions of the supply chains of different technologies, we conducted the first life cycle assessment of potential human health and ecological impacts of a global low-carbon electricity scenario. Our assessment indicates strong human health benefits of low-carbon electricity. For ecosystem quality, there is a significant trade-off between reduced pollution and climate impacts and potentially significant ecological impacts from land use associated with increased biopower utilization. Other renewables, nuclear power and CCS show clear ecological benefits, so that the climate mitigation scenario with a relatively low share of biopower has lower ecosystem impacts than the baseline scenario. Energy policy can maximize co-benefits by supporting other renewable and nuclear power and developing biomass supply from sources with low biodiversity impact.

A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of the federally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features - Gieder, Katherina D.; Karpanty, Sarah M.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Turecek, Aaron M.; Robert Thieler, E. (Ecological Modelling, 2014)
Keywords: Bayesian network Development Habitat Piping plover Sea-level rise Shorebird

Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology - Gienapp, Phillip; Reed, Thomas E.; Visser, Marcel E. (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2014)
The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations.%U http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royprsb/281/1793/20141611.full.pdf

A seventy-two-year record of diminishing deep-water oxygen in the St. Lawrence estuary: The northwest Atlantic connection - Gilbert, Denis; Sundby, Bjorn; Gobeil, Charles; Mucci, Alfonso; Tremblay, Gilles- H. (Limnology and Oceanography, 2005)

Community Resilience Economic Decision Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems - Gilbert, Stanley W.; Butry, David T.; Helgeson, Jennifer F.; Chapman, Robert E. (National Institute of Standards and Technology, 2015)

Heat illness among high school athletes—United States, 2005–2009 - Gilchrist, J.; Haileyesus, T.; Murphy, M.; Comstock, R.D.; Collins, C.; McIlvain, N.; Yard, E. (MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report, 2010)
Heat illness during practice or competition is a leading cause of death and disability among U.S. high school athletes. An estimated 7.5 million students participate in high school sports annually. To examine the incidence and characteristics of heat illness among high school athletes, CDC analyzed data from the National High School Sports-Related Injury Surveillance Study for the period 2005-2009, which includes the 2005-06, 2006-07, 2007-08 and 2008-09 school years. During 2005-2009, the 100 schools sampled reported a total of 118 heat illnesses among high school athletes resulting in >or=1 days of time lost from athletic activity (i.e., time-loss heat illness), a rate of 1.6 per 100,000 athlete-exposures and an average of 29.5 time-loss heat illnesses per school year. The average corresponds to a weighted average annual estimate of 9,237 illnesses nationwide. The highest rate of time-loss heat illness was among football players, 4.5 per 100,000 athlete-exposures, a rate 10 times higher than the average rate (0.4) for the eight other sports. Time-loss heat illnesses occurred most frequently during August (66.3%) and while practicing or playing football (70.7%). No deaths were reported. Consistent with guidelines from the National Athletic Trainers' Association (NATA), to reduce the risk for heat illness, high school athletic programs should implement heat-acclimatization guidelines (e.g., set limits on summer practice duration and intensity). All athletes, coaches, athletic trainers, and parents/guardians should be aware of the risk factors for heat illness, follow recommended strategies, and be prepared to respond quickly to symptoms of illness. Coaches also should continue to stress to their athletes the importance of maintaining proper hydration before, during, and after sports activities.
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Keywords: Absenteeism Acclimatization Athletes/*statistics & numerical data Dehydration/epidemiology Female Guidelines as Topic Heat Stress Disorders/*epidemiology Hot Temperature Humans Incidence Male *Population Surveillance *Sports Students/*statistics & numerical data United States/epidemiology

City planning and population health: A global challenge - Giles-Corti, Billie; Vernez-Moudon, Anne; Reis, Rodrigo; Turrell, Gavin; Dannenberg, Andrew L.; Badland, Hannah; Foster, Sarah; Lowe, Melanie; Sallis, James F.; Stevenson, Mark; Owen, Neville (The Lancet, 2016)

Climate change and cyclic predator–prey population dynamics in the high Arctic - Gilg, Olivier; Sittler, BenoÎT; Hanski, Ilkka (Global Change Biology, 2009)
Keywords: Alopex lagopus Arctic community climate change cyclic dynamics Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Greenland Mustela erminea Nyctea scandiaca predator–prey interaction Stercorarius longicaudus

Changes in autumn senescence in northern hemisphere deciduous trees: A meta-analysis of autumn phenology studies - Gill, Allison L.; Gallinat, Amanda S.; Sanders-DeMott, Rebecca; Rigden, Angela J.; Short Gianotti, Daniel J.; Mantooth, Joshua A.; Templer, Pamela H. (Annals of Botany, 2015)
Background and Aims Many individual studies have shown that the timing of leaf senescence in boreal and temperate deciduous forests in the northern hemisphere is influenced by rising temperatures, but there is limited consensus on the magnitude, direction and spatial extent of this relationship.Methods A meta-analysis was conducted of published studies from the peer-reviewed literature that reported autumn senescence dates for deciduous trees in the northern hemisphere, encompassing 64 publications with observations ranging from 1931 to 2010.Key Results Among the meteorological measurements examined, October temperatures were the strongest predictors of date of senescence, followed by cooling degree-days, latitude, photoperiod and, lastly, total monthly precipitation, although the strength of the relationships differed between high- and low-latitude sites. Autumn leaf senescence has been significantly more delayed at low (25° to 49°N) than high (50° to 70°N) latitudes across the northern hemisphere, with senescence across high-latitude sites more sensitive to the effects of photoperiod and low-latitude sites more sensitive to the effects of temperature. Delays in leaf senescence over time were stronger in North America compared with Europe and Asia.Conclusions The results indicate that leaf senescence has been delayed over time and in response to temperature, although low-latitude sites show significantly stronger delays in senescence over time than high-latitude sites. While temperature alone may be a reasonable predictor of the date of leaf senescence when examining a broad suite of sites, it is important to consider that temperature-induced changes in senescence at high-latitude sites are likely to be constrained by the influence of photoperiod. Ecosystem-level differences in the mechanisms that control the timing of leaf senescence may affect both plant community interactions and ecosystem carbon storage as global temperatures increase over the next century.

Adapting cities for climate change: The role of the green infrastructure - Gill, S. E.; Handley, J. F.; Ennos, A. R.; Pauleit, S. (Built Environment, 2007)
The urban environment has distinctive biophysical features in relation to surrounding rural areas. These include an altered energy exchange creating an urban heat island, and changes to hydrology such as increased surface runoff of rainwater. Such changes are, in part, a result of the altered surface cover of the urban area. For example less vegetated surfaces lead to a decrease in evaporative cooling, whilst an increase in surface sealing results in increased surface runoff. Climate change will amplify these distinctive features. This paper explores the important role that the green infrastructure, i.e. the greenspace network, of a city can play in adapting for climate change. It uses the conurbation of Greater Manchester as a case study site. The paper presents output from energy exchange and hydrological models showing surface temperature and surface runoff in relation to the green infrastructure under current and future climate scenarios. The implications for an adaptation strategy to climate change in the urban environment are discussed.

Puerto Rico aid is trapped in thousands of shipping containers - Gillespie, Patrick; Romo, Rafael; Santana, Maria (CNN, 2017)

Tuna: A Key Economic Resource in the Pacific Islands - Gillett, Robert; McCoy, Mike; Rodwell, Len; Tamate, Josie (Asian Development Bank, 2001)
ISBN: 971-561-335-7

Oceanographic and biological effects of shoaling of the oxygen minimum zone - Gilly, William F.; Beman, J. Michael; Litvin, Steven Y.; Robison, Bruce H. (Annual Review of Marine Science, 2013)
Long-term declines in oxygen concentrations are evident throughout much of the ocean interior and are particularly acute in midwater oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). These regions are defined by extremely low oxygen concentrations (<20–45 μmol kg−1), cover wide expanses of the ocean, and are associated with productive oceanic and coastal regions. OMZs have expanded over the past 50 years, and this expansion is predicted to continue as the climate warms worldwide. Shoaling of the upper boundaries of the OMZs accompanies OMZ expansion, and decreased oxygen at shallower depths can affect all marine organisms through multiple direct and indirect mechanisms. Effects include altered microbial processes that produce and consume key nutrients and gases, changes in predator-prey dynamics, and shifts in the abundance and accessibility of commercially fished species. Although many species will be negatively affected by these effects, others may expand their range or exploit new niches. OMZ shoaling is thus likely to have major and far-reaching consequences.
Keywords: hypoxia,ecology,oceans,microbial,mesopelagic,fisheries

Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position - Gilman, Eric; Ellison, Joanna; Coleman, Richard (Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2006)
We predict the decadal change in position of three American Samoa mangroves from analysis of a time series of remotely sensed imagery, a geographic information system, tide gauge data, and projections for change in sea-level relative to the mangrove surface. Accurate predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem boundaries, including in response to projected relative sea-level rise, enable advanced planning to minimize and offset anticipated losses and minimize social disruption and cost of reducing threats to coastal development and human safety. The observed mean landward migration of three mangroves' seaward margins over four decades was 25, 64, and 72mma−1, 12 to 37 times the observed relative sea-level rise rate. Two of the sites had clear trends in reductions in mangrove area, where there was a highly significant correlation between the change in position of the seaward mangrove margin and change in relative sea-level. Here it can be inferred that the force of sea-level rise relative to the mangrove surface is causing landward migration. Shoreline movement was variable at a third site and not significantly correlated with changing sea-level, where it is likely that forces other than change in relative sea-level are predominant. Currently, 16.5%, 23.4%, and 68.0% of the three mangroves' landward margins are obstructed by coastal development from natural landward migration. The three mangroves could experience as high as a 50.0% reduction in area by the year 2100. A 12% reduction in mangrove area by the year 2100 is possible in the Pacific islands region.
Keywords: sea-level rise Mangrove terrestrial ecosystems American Samoa coastal Ecology Environmental Management Wetland erosion Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Monitoring/Environmental Analysis/Environmental Ecotoxicology

Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: A review - Gilman, E. L.; Ellison, J.; Duke, N. C.; Field, C. (Aquatic Botany, 2008)

Collaborative risk informed decision analysis: A water security case study in the Philippines - Gilroy, Kristin; Jeuken, Ad (Climate Services, 2018)
Keywords: Climate change adaptation Water resources planning Decision support tool Integrated water resources management Climate vulnerability assessment

Climate Trends and Projections for Guam - Gingerich, Stephen B.; Keener, Victoria; Finucane, Melissa L. (East-West Center and USGS, 2015)

Seawater-flooding events and impact on freshwater lenses of low-lying islands: Controlling factors, basic management and mitigation - Gingerich, Stephen B.; Voss, Clifford I.; Johnson, Adam G. (Journal of Hydrology, 2017)
An unprecedented set of hydrologic observations was collected after the Dec 2008 seawater-flooding event on Roi-Namur, Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands. By two days after the seawater flooding that occurred at the beginning of dry season, the observed salinity of water withdrawn by the island’s main skimming well increased to 100% seawater concentration, but by ten days later already decreased to only 10–20% of seawater fraction. However, the damaging impact on the potability of the groundwater supply (when pumped water had concentrations above 1% seawater fraction) lasted 22 months longer. The data collected make possible analyses of the hydrologic factors that control recovery and management of the groundwater-supply quality on Roi-Namur and on similar low-lying islands.With the observed data as a guide, three-dimensional numerical-model simulation analyses reveal how recovery is controlled by the island’s hydrology. These also allow evaluation of the efficacy of basic water-quality management/mitigation alternatives and elucidate how groundwater withdrawal and timing of the seawater-flooding event affect the length of recovery. Simulations show that, as might be expected, by adding surplus captured rainwater as artificial recharge, the freshwater-lens recovery period (after which potable groundwater may again be produced) can be shortened, with groundwater salinity remaining lower even during the dry season, a period during which no artificial recharge is applied. Simulations also show that the recovery period is not lengthened appreciably by groundwater withdrawals during recovery. Simulations further show that had the flooding event occurred at the start of the wet season, the recovery period would have been about 25% (5.5 months) shorter than actually occurred during the monitored flood that occurred at the dry-season start. Finally, analyses show that artificial recharge improves freshwater-lens water quality, making possible longer use of groundwater as a water supply throughout each year, even when no seawater flooding has occurred.

Adaptive planning for climate resilient long-lived infrastructures - Giordano, Thierry (Utilities Policy, 2012)
Keywords: Infrastructure Climate change Planning Uncertainties

Impact of climate change on forage availability for livestock - Giridhar, Kandalam; Samireddypalle, Anandan (Climate Change Impact on Livestock: Adaptation and Mitigation, 2015)
Climate change has the potential to impact the quantity and reliability of forage production, quality of forage, water demand for cultivation of forage crops, as well as large-scale rangeland vegetation patterns. The most visible effect of climate change will be on the primary productivity of forage crops and rangelands. Developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries because of the predominance of agriculture in their economies and their warmer baseline climates, besides their limited resources to adapt to newer technologies. In the coming decades, crops and forage plants will continue to be subjected to warmer temperatures, elevated carbon dioxide, as well as wildly fluctuating water availability due to changing precipitation patterns. The interplay among these factors will decide the actual impact on plant growth and yield. Elevated CO2 levels are likely to promote dry matter production in C3 plants more as compared to C4 plants, and the quantum of response is dependent on the interactions among the nature of crop, soil moisture, and soil nutrient availability. Due to the wide fluctuations in distribution of rainfall in growing season in several regions of the world, the forage production will be greatly impacted. As the agricultural sector is the largest user of freshwater resources, the dwindling water supplies will adversely affect the forage crop production. With proper adaptation measures ably supported by suitable policies by the governments, it is possible to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change and ensure livestock productivity through optimum forage availability.

Making Climate Data Relevant to Decision Making: The Important Details of Spatial and Temporal Downscaling - Girvetz, Evan H.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Duffy, Philip B.; Ruesch, Aaron; Thrasher, Bridget; Zganjar, Chris (World Bank, 2013)

Marshes with and without sills protect estuarine shorelines from erosion better than bulkheads during a Category 1 hurricane - Gittman, Rachel K.; Popowich, Alyssa M.; Bruno, John F.; Peterson, Charles H. (Ocean & Coastal Management, 2014)
Keywords: Coastal management Marsh Erosion Estuarine shoreline protection Storm

Integrated spatial assessment of the water, energy and food dimensions of the Sustainable Development Goals - Giupponi, Carlo; Gain, Animesh Kumar (Regional Environmental Change, 2017)
Water is considered the bloodstream of the biosphere, but its management is one of the most important challenges for human development. In view of the sustainable water management, several approaches have been proposed: Integrated Water Resources Management, Adaptive Management and, more recently, Water–Energy–Food (WEF) Nexus. Considering these approaches, over the last few decades, extensive efforts have been made to develop assessment methods and tools framed within the paradigm of sustainable development. As part of a holistic assessment of water resources, the recent approach based upon the WEF Nexus narrows down the consideration of intersectoral linkages to three dimensions that are of prominent interest, in particular in developing countries. This study presents a comprehensive indicator-based approach for the assessment of water, energy and food securities, with reference to the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. The main ambition of the proposed approach is to provide a tool to monitor progresses, compare different geographical areas, highlight synergies and conflicts amongst and within the three dimensions of the WEF Nexus, and provide support for improved—more effective—management strategies to meet the goals. The proposed approach is demonstrated in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) River Basin in Asia and to the Po River Basin in Europe. The comparative analysis suggests that WEF security is currently rather low in the GBM basin compared to the other case study and other parts of the world and allows the identification of which dimensions (indicators) require special attention on the part of local and global policy makers.

Coping with a Changing Climate: Considerations for Adaptation and Mitigation in Agriculture - Glantz, Michael H.; Gommes, René; Ramasamy, Selvaraju (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2009)

A visual primer for the food and agricultural sectors - Glaser, Lewrene; Kassel, Kathleen; Morrison, Rosanna Mentzer (Amber Waves, 2013)

Associations between ozone, PM2.5, and four pollen types on emergency department pediatric asthma events during the warm season in New Jersey: A case-crossover study - Gleason, Jessie A.; Bielory, Leonard; Fagliano, Jerald A. (Environmental Research, 2014)
Keywords: Asthma Pollen Case-crossover Ozone PM

Charred forests accelerate snow albedo decay: Parameterizing the post-fire radiative forcing on snow for three years following fire - Gleason, Kelly E.; Nolin, Anne W. (Hydrological Processes, 2016)
Keywords: snow albedo forest fire snowmelt snowpack energy balance snowpack radiative forcing snow ablation

USDA conservation program and practice effects on wetland ecosystem services in the Prairie Pothole Region - Gleason, R. A.; Euliss, N. H.; Tangen, B. A.; Laubhan, M. K.; Browne, B. A. (Ecological Applications, 2011)
Implementation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) has resulted in the restoration of >2 million ha of wetland and grassland habitats in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Restoration of habitats through these programs provides diverse ecosystem services to society, but few investigators have evaluated the environmental benefits achieved by these programs. We describe changes in wetland processes, functions, and ecosystem services that occur when wetlands and adjacent uplands on agricultural lands are restored through Farm Bill conservation programs. At the scale of wetland catchments, projects have had positive impacts on water storage, reduction in sedimentation and nutrient loading, plant biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat. However, lack of information on the geographic location of restored catchments relative to landscape-level factors (e.g., watershed, proximity to rivers and lakes) limits interpretation of ecosystem services that operate at multiple scales such as floodwater retention, water quality improvement, and wildlife habitat suitability. Considerable opportunity exists for the USDA to incorporate important landscape factors to better target conservation practices and programs to optimize diverse ecosystem services. Restoration of hydrologic processes within wetlands (e.g., hydroperiod, water level dynamics) also requires a better understanding of the influence of conservation cover composition and structure, and management practices that occur in uplands surrounding wetlands. Although conservation programs have enhanced delivery of ecosystem services in the PPR, the use of programs to provide long-term critical ecosystem services is uncertain because when contracts (especially CRP) expire, economic incentives may favor conversion of land to crop production, rather than reenrollment. As demands for agricultural products (food, fiber, biofuel) increase, Farm Bill conservation programs will become increasingly important to ensure provisioning of ecosystem services to society, especially in agriculturally dominated landscapes. Thus, continued development and support for conservation programs legislated through the Farm Bill will require a more comprehensive understanding of wetland ecological services to better evaluate program achievements relative to conservation goals.

Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades - Gleckler, Peter J.; Durack, Paul J.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Johnson, Gregory C.; Forest, Chris E. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Ocean acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region 1996–2006 - Gledhill, Dwight K.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Millero, Frank J.; Eakin, Mark (Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 2008)
Keywords: Ocean acidification carbonate chemistry coral reef 1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 1635 Oceans 1640 Remote sensing 4215 Climate and interannual variability 4220 Coral reef systems

Ocean and coastal acidification off New England and Nova Scotia - Gledhill, D.K.; White, M.M.; Salisbury, J.; Thomas, H.; Mlsna, I.; Liebman, M.; Mook, B.; Grear, J.; Candelmo, A.C.; Chambers, R.C.; Gobler, C.J.; Hunt, C.W.; et al. (Oceanography, 2015)

Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict - Gleditsch, Nils Petter (Journal of Peace Research, 2012)
Until recently, most writings on the relationship between climate change and security were highly speculative. The IPCC assessment reports to date offer little if any guidance on this issue and occasionally pay excessive attention to questionable sources. The articles published in this special issue form the largest collection of peer-reviewed writings on the topic to date. The number of such studies remains small compared to those that make up the natural science base of the climate issue, and there is some confusion whether it is the effect of ‘climate’ or ‘weather’ that is being tested. The results of the studies vary, and firm conclusions cannot always be drawn. Nevertheless, research in this area has made considerable progress. More attention is being paid to the specific causal mechanisms linking climate change to conflict, such as changes in rainfall and temperature, natural disasters, and economic growth. Systematic climate data are used in most of the articles and climate projections in some. Several studies are going beyond state-based conflict to look at possible implications for other kinds of violence, such as intercommunal conflict. Overall, the research reported here offers only limited support for viewing climate change as an important influence on armed conflict. However, framing the climate issue as a security problem could possibly influence the perceptions of the actors and contribute to a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Keywords: armed conflict,climate change,security,war

Climate Change and Conflict: The Migration Link - Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Salehyan, Idean; Nordas, Ragnhild (International Peace Academy, 2007)

Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria - Gleick, Peter H. (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2014)
The devastating civil war that began in Syria in March 2011 is the result of complex interrelated factors. The focus of the conflict is regime change, but the triggers include a broad set of religious and sociopolitical factors, the erosion of the economic health of the country, a wave of political reform sweeping over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Levant region, and challenges associated with climate variability and change and the availability and use of freshwater. As described here, water and climatic conditions have played a direct role in the deterioration of Syria’s economic conditions. There is a long history of conflicts over water in these regions because of the natural water scarcity, the early development of irrigated agriculture, and complex religious and ethnic diversity. In recent years, there has been an increase in incidences of water-related violence around the world at the subnational level attributable to the role that water plays in development disputes and economic activities. Because conflicts are rarely, if ever, attributable to single causes, conflict analysis and concomitant efforts at reducing the risks of conflict must consider a multitude of complex relationships and contributing factors. This paper assesses the complicated connections between water and conflict in Syria, looks more broadly at future climate-related risks for water systems, and offers some water management strategies for reducing those risks.
Keywords: Anthropogenic effects,Climate change,Hydrology,Agriculture,Risk assessment,Societal impacts

Impacts of California’s Ongoing Drought: Hydroelectricity Generation 2015 Update - Gleick, Peter H. (Pacific Institute, 2016)
ISBN: 978-1-893790-71-1

Peak water limits to freshwater withdrawal and use - Gleick, Peter H.; Palaniappan, Meena (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2010)
Freshwater resources are fundamental for maintaining human health, agricultural production, economic activity as well as critical ecosystem functions. As populations and economies grow, new constraints on water resources are appearing, raising questions about limits to water availability. Such resource questions are not new. The specter of “peak oil”—a peaking and then decline in oil production—has long been predicted and debated. We present here a detailed assessment and definition of three concepts of “peak water”: peak renewable water, peak nonrenewable water, and peak ecological water. These concepts can help hydrologists, water managers, policy makers, and the public understand and manage different water systems more effectively and sustainably. Peak renewable water applies where flow constraints limit total water availability over time. Peak nonrenewable water is observable in groundwater systems where production rates substantially exceed natural recharge rates and where overpumping or contamination leads to a peak of production followed by a decline, similar to more traditional peak-oil curves. Peak “ecological” water is defined as the point beyond which the total costs of ecological disruptions and damages exceed the total value provided by human use of that water. Despite uncertainties in quantifying many of these costs and benefits in consistent ways, more and more watersheds appear to have already passed the point of peak water. Applying these concepts can help shift the way freshwater resources are managed toward more productive, equitable, efficient, and sustainable use.

Summarizing Hurricane Harvey’s Environmental Impacts in the Houston-Galveston Region - Glenn, Stephanie (HARC: Our Blog, 2017)

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: Projections based on model analysis - Glibert, Patricia M.; Icarus Allen, J.; Artioli, Yuri; Beusen, Arthur; Bouwman, Lex; Harle, James; Holmes, Robert; Holt, Jason (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Keywords: GCOMS-POLCOMS-ERSIM model IPCC scenarios Karenia spp nutrient stoichiometry Prorocentrum spp

Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment - Glick, P.; Stein, B.A.; Edelson, N.A. (National Wildlife Federation, 2011)

Climate Change and Resilient Communities Along the U.S.-Mexico Border: The Role of Federal Agencies - GNEB (Good Neighbor Environmental Board, 2016)

Outdoor water use as an adaptation problem: Insights from North American cities - Gober, P.; Quay, R.; Larson, K. L. (Water Resources Management, 2016)
Recent efforts to influence the efficiency and timing of urban indoor water use through education, technology, conservation, reuse, economic incentives, and regulatory mechanisms have enabled many North American cities to accommodate population growth and buffer impacts of drought. It is unlikely that this approach will be equally successful into the future because the source of conservation will shift from indoor to outdoor use. Outdoor water is climate sensitive, difficult to measure, hard to predict, linked to other components of complex and dynamic urban resource systems, imbued with behavioral and cultural dimensions, and implicated in societal conflicts about climate risk, modern lifestyles, social justice, and future growth. Outdoor water conservation is not a traditional management problem focused on the water sector, assuming a stationary climate, and set aside from public debate. Instead, outdoor water is an adaptation problem, involving complex and uncertain system dynamics, the need for cross-sector coordination, strategies for dealing with climatic uncertainty, and mechanisms for engaging stakeholders with differing goals. This paper makes the case for treating outdoor water as an adaptation problem and offers a six-point strategy for how cities can better prepare their water systems for the uncertainties of climate and societal change.
Keywords: urban water climate change Adaptation

Hypoxia and acidification in ocean ecosystems: Coupled dynamics and effects on marine life - Gobler, Christopher J.; Baumann, Hannes (Biology Letters, 2016)
There is increasing recognition that low dissolved oxygen (DO) and low pH conditions co-occur in many coastal and open ocean environments. Within temperate ecosystems, these conditions not only develop seasonally as temperatures rise and metabolic rates accelerate, but can also display strong diurnal variability, especially in shallow systems where photosynthetic rates ameliorate hypoxia and acidification by day. Despite the widespread, global co-occurrence of low pH and low DO and the likelihood that these conditions may negatively impact marine life, very few studies have actually assessed the extent to which the combination of both stressors elicits additive, synergistic or antagonistic effects in marine organisms. We review the evidence from published factorial experiments that used static and/or fluctuating pH and DO levels to examine different traits (e.g. survival, growth, metabolism), life stages and species across a broad taxonomic spectrum. Additive negative effects of combined low pH and low DO appear to be most common; however, synergistic negative effects have also been observed. Neither the occurrence nor the strength of these synergistic impacts is currently predictable, and therefore, the true threat of concurrent acidification and hypoxia to marine food webs and fisheries is still not fully understood. Addressing this knowledge gap will require an expansion of multi-stressor approaches in experimental and field studies, and the development of a predictive framework. In consideration of marine policy, we note that DO criteria in coastal waters have been developed without consideration of concurrent pH levels. Given the persistence of concurrent low pH–low DO conditions in estuaries and the increased mortality experienced by fish and bivalves under concurrent acidification and hypoxia compared with hypoxia alone, we conclude that such DO criteria may leave coastal fisheries more vulnerable to population reductions than previously anticipated.

Ocean warming since 1982 has expanded the niche of toxic algal blooms in the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans - Gobler, Christopher J.; Doherty, Owen M.; Hattenrath-Lehmann, Theresa K.; Griffith, Andrew W.; Kang, Yoonja; Litaker, R. Wayne (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Global ocean temperatures are rising, yet the impacts of such changes on harmful algal blooms (HABs) are not fully understood. Here we used high-resolution sea-surface temperature records (1982 to 2016) and temperature-dependent growth rates of two algae that produce potent biotoxins, Alexandrium fundyense and Dinophysis acuminata, to evaluate recent changes in these HABs. For both species, potential mean annual growth rates and duration of bloom seasons significantly increased within many coastal Atlantic regions between 40°N and 60°N, where incidents of these HABs have emerged and expanded in recent decades. Widespread trends were less evident across the North Pacific, although regions were identified across the Salish Sea and along the Alaskan coastline where blooms have recently emerged, and there have been significant increases in the potential growth rates and duration of these HAB events. We conclude that increasing ocean temperature is an important factor facilitating the intensification of these, and likely other, HABs and thus contributes to an expanding human health threat.

The Great Colorado Flood of September 2013 - Gochis, David; Schumacher, Russ; Friedrich, Katja; Doesken, Nolan; Kelsch, Matt; Sun, Juanzhen; Ikeda, Kyoko; Lindsey, Daniel; Wood, Andy; Dolan, Brenda; Matrosov, Sergey; Newman, Andrew; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015)
During the second week of September 2013, a seasonally uncharacteristic weather pattern stalled over the Rocky Mountain Front Range region of northern Colorado bringing with it copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. This feed of moisture was funneled toward the east-facing mountain slopes through a series of mesoscale circulation features, resulting in several days of unusually widespread heavy rainfall over steep mountainous terrain. Catastrophic flooding ensued within several Front Range river systems that washed away highways, destroyed towns, isolated communities, necessitated days of airborne evacuations, and resulted in eight fatalities. The impacts from heavy rainfall and flooding were felt over a broad region of northern Colorado leading to 18 counties being designated as federal disaster areas and resulting in damages exceeding $2 billion (U.S. dollars). This study explores the meteorological and hydrological ingredients that led to this extreme event. After providing a basic timeline of events, synoptic and mesoscale circulation features of the event are discussed. Particular focus is placed on documenting how circulation features, embedded within the larger synoptic flow, served to funnel moist inflow into the mountain front driving several days of sustained orographic precipitation. Operational and research networks of polarimetric radar and surface instrumentation were used to evaluate the cloud structures and dominant hydrometeor characteristics. The performance of several quantitative precipitation estimates, quantitative precipitation forecasts, and hydrological forecast products are also analyzed with the intention of identifying what monitoring and prediction tools worked and where further improvements are needed.

An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010 - Goddard, Paul B.; Yin, Jianjun; Griffies, Stephen M.; Zhang, Shaoqing (Nature Communications, 2015)

Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people - Godfray, H. Charles J.; Beddington, John R.; Crute, Ian R.; Haddad, Lawrence; Lawrence, David; Muir, James F.; Pretty, Jules; Robinson, Sherman; Thomas, Sandy M.; Toulmin, Camilla (Science, 2010)
Continuing population and consumption growth will mean that the global demand for food will increase for at least another 40 years. Growing competition for land, water, and energy, in addition to the overexploitation of fisheries, will affect our ability to produce food, as will the urgent requirement to reduce the impact of the food system on the environment. The effects of climate change are a further threat. But the world can produce more food and can ensure that it is used more efficiently and equitably. A multifaceted and linked global strategy is needed to ensure sustainable and equitable food security, different components of which are explored here.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/327/5967/812.full.pdf

A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006 - Golden, Jay S.; Hartz, Donna; Brazel, Anthony; Luber, George; Phelan, Patrick (International Journal of Biometeorology, 2008)
Heat waves kill more people in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined. Recently, international attention focused on the linkages and impacts of human health vulnerability to urban climate when Western Europe experienced over 30,000 excess deaths during the heat waves of the summer of 2003—surpassing the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, that killed 739. While Europe dealt with heat waves, in the United States, Phoenix, Arizona, established a new all-time high minimum temperature for the region on July 15, 2003. The low temperature of 35.5°C (96°F) was recorded, breaking the previous all-time high minimum temperature record of 33.8°C (93°F). While an extensive literature on heat-related mortality exists, greater understanding of influences of heat-related morbidity is required due to climate change and rapid urbanization influences. We undertook an analysis of 6 years (2001–2006) of heat-related dispatches through the Phoenix Fire Department regional dispatch center to examine temporal, climatic and other non-spatial influences contributing to high-heat-related medical dispatch events. The findings identified that there were no significant variations in day-of-week dispatch events. The greatest incidence of heat-related medical dispatches occurred between the times of peak solar irradiance and maximum diurnal temperature, and during times of elevated human comfort indices (combined temperature and relative humidity).

The challenge of simulating the warmth of the mid-Miocene climatic optimum in CESM1 - Goldner, A.; Herold, N.; Huber, M. (Climate of the Past, 2014)

The State of Indigenous America Series: Earth Mother, piñons, and apple pie - Goldtooth, Tom B. K. (Wicazo Sa Review, 2010)

Balancing Risks from Climate Policy Uncertainties: The Role of Options and Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation - Golub, Alexander; Lubowski, Ruben; Piris-Cabezas, Pedro (Ecological Economics, 2017)
Keywords: Carbon market Climate policy Deforestation Emissions trading Options trading REDD+ Uncertainty

Adapting to a Changing Climate: Guide to Local Early Action Planning (LEAP) and Management Planning - Gombos, M.; Atkinson, S.; Wongbusarakum, Supin (Micronesia Conservation Trust, 2013)

Climate Change: Improved Federal Coordination Could Facilitate Use of Forward-Looking Climate Information in Design Standards, Building Codes, and Certifications - Gomez, J. Alfredo (Research Report No. GAO-17-3, 2016)
Keywords: added by ERG

Climate Change, Resilience, and Fairness: How Nonstructural Adaptation Can Protect and Empower Socially Vulnerable Communities on the Gulf Coast - Gonzalez, Carmen G.; Kaswan, Alice; Verchick, Robert; Huang, Yee; Jamhour, Nowal; Bowen, Shawn (Center for Progressive Reform, 2016)

Climate change’s pulse is in Central America and the Caribbean - González, J. E.; Georgescu, M.; Lemos, M. C.; Hosannah, N.; Niyogi, D. (Eos, Earth & Space Science News, 2017)

Aboveground live carbon stock changes of California wildland ecosystems, 2001–2010 - Gonzalez, Patrick; Battles, John J.; Collins, Brandon M.; Robards, Timothy; Saah, David S. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2015)
Keywords: Carbon Climate change Protected areas Uncertainty Wildfire

Southwest - Gonzalez, P.; Garfin, G.M.; Breshears, D.D.; Brooks, K.M.; Brown, H.E.; Elias, E.H.; Gunasekara, A.; Huntly, N.; Maldonado, J.K.; Mantua, N.J.; Margolis, H.G.; McAfee, S.; et al. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change - Gonzalez, P.; Neilson, R. P.; Lenihan, J. M.; Drapek, R. J. (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2010)

Community-Driven Climate Resilience Planning: A Framework, Version 2.0 - Gonzalez, Rosa; other contributors (National Association of Climate Resilience Planners, 2017)

Microbial and size characterization of airborne particulate matter collected on sticky tapes along US–Mexico border - González-Delgado, Amir; Shukla, Manoj K.; DuBois, David W.; Flores-Márgez, Juan P.; Hernández Escamilla, Joel A.; Olivas, Evangelina (Journal of Environmental Sciences, 2017)
Keywords: Fungal spores Sticky tape Particle size Microorganism Dust

Potential effects of climate change on streambed scour and risks to salmonid survival in snow-dominated mountain basins - Goode, Jaime R.; Buffington, John M.; Tonina, Daniele; Isaak, Daniel J.; Thurow, Russell F.; Wenger, Seth; Nagel, David; Luce, Charlie; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Soulsby, Chris (Hydrological Processes, 2013)
Keywords: climate change morphologic adjustment salmon spawning habitat streambed scour

Enhanced sediment delivery in a changing climate in semi-arid mountain basins: Implications for water resource management and aquatic habitat in the northern Rocky Mountains - Goode, Jaime R.; Luce, Charles H.; Buffington, John M. (Geomorphology, 2012)
Keywords: Sediment yield Climate change Wildfire Forest roads Aquatic habitat Idaho batholith

Burning Down to the Village - Goode, Ron W. (Eagle Eye Enterprises, 2013)

Planning for Systems Management & Operations as Part of Climate Change Adaptation - Gopalakrishna, Deepak; Schroeder, Jeremy; Huff, Amy; Thomas, Amy; Leibrand, Amy (Federal Highway Administration, 2013)

The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States : A Climate Risk Assessment for the United States - Gordon, Kate; the Risky Business Project (Risky Business Project, 2014)
Online version at https://riskybusiness.org/report/national/
Keywords: added by ERG

Human modification of global water vapor flows from the land surface - Gordon, Line J; Steffen, Will; Jönsson, Bror F; Folke, Carl; Falkenmark, Malin; Johannessen, Åse (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2005)

Novel and lost forests in the upper midwestern United States, from new estimates of settlement-era composition, stem density, and biomass - Goring, Simon J.; Mladenoff, David J.; Cogbill, Charles V.; Record, Sydne; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Dietze, Michael C.; Dawson, Andria; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; McLachlan, Jason S.; Williams, John W. (PLOS ONE, 2016)
EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types. This mapping is more robust than past efforts, using spatially varying correction factors to accommodate sampling design, azimuthal censoring, and biases in tree selection. Changes in Forest Structure We compare pre-settlement to modern forests using US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to show the prevalence of lost forests (pre-settlement forests with no current analog), and novel forests (modern forests with no past analogs). Differences between pre-settlement and modern forests are spatially structured owing to differences in land-use impacts and accompanying ecological responses. Modern forests are more homogeneous, and ecotonal gradients are more diffuse today than in the past. Novel forest assemblages represent 28% of all FIA cells, and 28% of pre-settlement forests no longer exist in a modern context. Lost forests include tamarack forests in northeastern Minnesota, hemlock and cedar dominated forests in north-central Wisconsin and along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and elm, oak, basswood and ironwood forests along the forest-prairie boundary in south central Minnesota and eastern Wisconsin. Novel FIA forest assemblages are distributed evenly across the region, but novelty shows a strong relationship to spatial distance from remnant forests in the upper Midwest, with novelty predicted at between 20 to 60km from remnants, depending on historical forest type. The spatial relationships between remnant and novel forests, shifts in ecotone structure and the loss of historic forest types point to significant challenges for land managers if landscape restoration is a priority. The spatial signals of novelty and ecological change also point to potential challenges in using modern spatial distributions of species and communities and their relationship to underlying geophysical and climatic attributes in understanding potential responses to changing climate. The signal of human settlement on modern forests is broad, spatially varying and acts to homogenize modern forests relative to their historic counterparts, with significant implications for future management.

Coccidioidomycosis dynamics in relation to climate in the southwestern United States - Gorris, M. E.; Cat, L. A.; Zender, C. S.; Treseder, K. K.; Randerson, J. T. (GeoHealth, 2018)
Valley fever is endemic to the southwestern United States. Humans contract this fungal disease by inhaling spores of Coccidioides spp. Changes in the environment can influence the abundance and dispersal of Coccidioides spp., causing fluctuations in valley fever incidence. We combined county‐level case records from state health agencies to create a regional valley fever database for the southwestern United States, including Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. We used this data set to explore how environmental factors influenced the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of valley fever incidence during 2000–2015. We compiled climate and environmental geospatial data sets from multiple sources to compare with valley fever incidence. These variables included air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, surface dust concentration, normalized difference vegetation index, and cropland area. We found that valley fever incidence was greater in areas with warmer air temperatures and drier soils. The mean annual cycle of incidence varied throughout the southwestern United States and peaked following periods of low precipitation and soil moisture. From year‐to‐year, however, autumn incidence was higher following cooler, wetter, and productive springs in the San Joaquin Valley of California. In southcentral Arizona, incidence increased significantly through time. By 2015, incidence in this region was more than double the rate in the San Joaquin Valley. Our analysis provides a framework for interpreting the influence of climate change on valley fever incidence dynamics. Our results may allow the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to improve their estimates of the spatial pattern and intensity of valley fever endemicity.

Our People, Our Planet, Our Power—Community Led Research in South Seattle - Got Green; Puget Sound Sage (2016)

Hurricane Sandy: Impact on emergency department and hospital utilization by older adults in Lower Manhattan, New York (USA) - Gotanda, Hiroshi; Fogel, Joyce; Husk, Gregg; Levine, Jeffrey M.; Peterson, Monte; Baumlin, Kevin; Habboushe, Joseph (Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 2015)
Background On October 29th, 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused a storm surge interrupting electricity with disruption to Manhattan’s (New York, USA) health care infrastructure. Beth Israel Medical Center (BIMC) was the only fully functioning major hospital in lower Manhattan during and after Hurricane Sandy. The impact on emergency department (ED) and hospital use by geriatric patients in lower Manhattan was studied. Methods The trends of ED visits and hospitalizations in the immediate post-Sandy phase (IPS) during the actual blackout (October 29 through November 4, 2012), and the extended post-Sandy phase (EPS), when neighboring hospitals were still incapacitated (November 5, 2012 through February 10, 2013), were analyzed with baseline. The analysis was broken down by age groups (18-64, 65-79, and 80+ years old) and included the reasons for ED visits and admissions. Results During the IPS, there was a significant increase in geriatric visits (from 11% to 16.5% in the 65-79 age group, and from 6.5% to 13% in the 80+ age group) as well as in hospitalizations (from 22.7% to 25.2% in the 65-79 age group, and from 17.6% to 33.8% in the 80+ age group). However, these proportions returned to baseline during the EPS. The proportions of the categories “dialysis,” “respiratory device,” “social,” and “syncope” in geriatric patients in ED visits were significantly higher than younger patients. The increases of the categories “medication,” “dialysis,” “respiratory device,” and “social” represented two-thirds of absolute increase in both ED visits and admissions for the 65-79 age group, and half of the absolute increase in ED visits for the 80+ age group. The categories “social” and “respiratory device” peaked one day after the disaster, “dialysis” peaked two days after, and “medication” peaked three days after in ED visit analysis. Conclusions There was a disproportionate increase in ED visits and hospitalizations in the geriatric population compared with the younger population during the IPS. The primary factor of the disproportionate impact on the geriatric population appears to be from indirect effects of the hurricane, mainly due to the subsequent power outages, such as “dialysis,” “respiratory device,” and “social.” Further investigation by chart review may provide more insights to better aid with future disaster preparedness. Gotanda H , Fogel J , Husk G , Levine JM , Peterson M , Baumlin K , Habboushe J . Hurricane Sandy: Impact on Emergency Department and Hospital Utilization by Older Adults in Lower Manhattan, New York (USA). Prehosp Disaster Med. 2015;30(5):496–502.
Keywords: disaster planning geriatrics public health

Reinforcing inequalities: The impact of the CDBG Program on post-Katrina rebuilding - Gotham, Kevin Fox (Housing Policy Debate, 2014)

Green Gentrification: Urban Sustainability and the Struggle for Environmental Justice - Gould, Kenneth A.; Lewis, Tammy L (Routledge Equity, Justice and the Sustainable City Series, 2017)

U.S. Caribbean - Gould, W.A.; Díaz, E.L.; (co-leads); Álvarez-Berríos, N.L.; Aponte-González, F.; Archibald, W.; Bowden, J.H.; Carrubba, L.; Crespo, W.; Fain, S.J.; González, G.; Goulbourne, A.; et al. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Caribbean Regional Climate Sub Hub Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies - Gould, William A.; Fain, Stephen J.; Pares, Isabel K.; McGinley, Kathleen; Perry, Anne; Steele, Rachel F. (USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, 2015)

Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: Historical trends and future projections - Gourdji, Sharon M.; Sibley, Adam M.; Lobell, David B. (Environmental Research Letters, 2013)
Long-term warming trends across the globe have shifted the distribution of temperature variability, such that what was once classified as extreme heat relative to local mean conditions has become more common. This is also true for agricultural regions, where exposure to extreme heat, particularly during key growth phases such as the reproductive period, can severely damage crop production in ways that are not captured by most crop models. Here, we analyze exposure of crops to physiologically critical temperatures in the reproductive stage ( T crit ), across the global harvested areas of maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Trends for the 1980–2011 period show a relatively weak correspondence ( r = 0.19) between mean growing season temperature and T crit exposure trends, emphasizing the importance of separate analyses for T crit . Increasing T crit exposure in the past few decades is apparent for wheat in Central and South Asia and South America, and for maize in many diverse locations across the globe. Maize had the highest percentage (15%) of global harvested area exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in the 2000s, although this value is somewhat sensitive to the exact temperature used for the threshold. While there was relatively little sustained exposure to reproductive days over T crit for the other crops in the past few decades, all show increases with future warming. Using projections from climate models we estimate that by the 2030s, 31, 16, and 11% respectively of maize, rice, and wheat global harvested area will be exposed to at least five reproductive days over T crit in a typical year, with soybean much less affected. Both maize and rice exhibit non-linear increases with time, with total area exposed for rice projected to grow from 8% in the 2000s to 27% by the 2050s, and maize from 15 to 44% over the same period. While faster development should lead to earlier flowering, which would reduce reproductive extreme heat exposure for wheat on a global basis, this would have little impact for the other crops. Therefore, regardless of the impact of other global change factors (such as increasing atmospheric CO 2 ), reproductive extreme heat exposure will pose risks for global crop production without adaptive measures such as changes in sowing dates, crop and variety switching, expansion of irrigation, and agricultural expansion into cooler areas.

Palau Climate Change Policy: For Climate and Disaster Resilient Low Emissions Development - Government of Palau (Office of the President, 2015)

Build Back Better: Puerto Rico. Request for Federal Assistance for Disaster Recovery - Government of Puerto Rico (Government of Puerto Rico, 2017)

Imua: Kauai Beyond Hurricane Iniki - Governor’s Economic Recovery Committee (1993)

NACP NAFD Project: Forest Disturbance History from Landsat, 1986–2010 - Goward, SN; Huang, C; Zhao, F; Schleeweis, K; Rishmawi, K; Lindsey, M; Dungan, JL; Michaelis, A (ORNL DAAC, 2015)

Agriculture and Rural Communities - Gowda, P.; Steiner, J.L.; Olson, C.; Boggess, M.; Farrigan, T.; Grusak, M.A. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

A user-friendly interactive tool for estimating reference ET using ASCE standardized Penman-Monteith equation - Gowda, Prasanna H.; Howell, Terry A.; Baumhardt, R. Louis; Porter, Dana O.; Marek, Thomas H.; Nangia, Vinay (Applied Engineering in Agriculture, 2016)
The Accurate daily reference evapotranspiration (ET) values are needed to estimate crop water demand for irrigation management and hydrologic modeling purposes. The Bushland Reference ET Calculator (BET) was developed to implement a user-friendly interface for calculating hourly and daily grass and alfalfa reference ET using the Java Programming Language. The calculator uses the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standardized Reference ET equation for calculating both grass and alfalfa reference ET at hourly and daily time steps from a single set or time series of weather data. Daily reference ET can be calculated either by calculating the hourly reference ET values and summing them up or by calculating a daily value using daily statistics of the climatic data (means, maxima, and minima). Graphing capabilities include line graph and scatter plot for quality assurance and quality control purposes. Descriptive statistics can be calculated for selected or all of the variables. Although the â€œBushland Reference ET Calculatorâ€ was designed and developed for use mainly by producers and crop consultants to manage irrigation scheduling, it can also be used in educational training, research, and other practical applications. This article demonstrates the use of the Bushland Reference ET Calculator that is available from the USDA-ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory web site to interested users at no cost.
Keywords: Irrigation scheduling Bushland Reference ET Calculator Water management.

Air quality and exercise-related health benefits from reduced car travel in the midwestern United States - Grabow, Maggie L.; Spak, Scott N.; Holloway, Tracey; Stone, Brian, Jr.; Mednick, Adam C.; Patz, Jonathan A. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2012)

Economic valuation of ecosystem services provided by oyster reefs - Grabowski, Jonathan H.; Brumbaugh, Robert D.; Conrad, Robert F.; Keeler, Andrew G.; Opaluch, James J.; Peterson, Charles H.; Piehler, Michael F.; Powers, Sean P.; Smyth, Ashley R. (BioScience, 2012)
Valuation of ecosystem services can provide evidence of the importance of sustaining and enhancing those resources and the ecosystems that provide them. Long appreciated only as a commercial source of oysters, oyster reefs are now acknowledged for the other services they provide, such as enhancing water quality and stabilizing shorelines. We develop a framework to assess the value of these services. We conservatively estimate that the economic value of oyster reef services, excluding oyster harvesting, is between $5500 and $99,000 per hectare per year and that reefs recover their median restoration costs in 2–14 years. In contrast, when oyster reefs are subjected to destructive oyster harvesting, they do not recover the costs of restoration. Shoreline stabilization is the most valuable potential service, although this value varies greatly by reef location. Quantifying the economic values of ecosystem services provides guidance about when oyster reef restoration is a good use of funds.

Kinnickinnic River Watershed Flood Management Plan: Final Report. Executive Summary - GRAEF; Hey and Associates Inc.; CDM Smith (Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District, 2017)

Temperature and the allocation of time: Implications for climate change - Graff Zivin, Joshua; Neidell, Matthew (Journal of Labor Economics, 2014)
Ch2

On the marketisation of water: Evidence from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia - Grafton, R. Quentin; Horne, James; Wheeler, Sarah Ann (Water Resources Management, 2016)
Policy makers will increasingly have to turn to water demand management in the future to respond to greater water scarcity. Water markets have long been promoted as one of the most efficient ways to reallocate water by economists, but have also been subject to much criticism due to their possible social, economic and environmental impacts. We engage with common critical perceptions of water markets by presenting first-hand evidence of their effects in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. Water markets in the MDB, as developed within an appropriate institutional framework and coupled with comprehensive water planning, have: (1) helped deliver improved environmental outcomes; (2) assisted irrigators’ adaptation responses to climate risks, such as drought; (3) increased the gross valued added of farming; and (4) been regulated in ways to meet social goals. If water markets are embedded within fair and effective meta-governance and property right structures, the potential exists for marketisation to increase efficiency, promote fairness in terms of initial water allocations, and to improve environmental outcomes.

Possible pathways and tensions in the food and water nexus - Grafton, R. Quentin; Williams, John; Jiang, Qiang (Earth's Future, 2017)
Keywords: food security water security irrigated agriculture rain-fed agriculture APSIM TFP 0402 Agricultural systems 1842 Irrigation

The effect of climate change on glacier ablation and baseflow support in the Nooksack River basin and implications on Pacific salmonid species protection and recovery - Grah, Oliver; Beaulieu, Jezra (Climatic Change, 2013)

Preparing for Climate Impacts: Lessons from the Front Lines - Grannis, Jessica; Arroyo, Vicki; Hoverter, Sara; Stumberg, Robert (Georgetown Climate Center, 2014)
Keywords: added by ERG

Enhanced seasonal exchange of CO2 by northern ecosystems since 1960 - Graven, H. D.; Keeling, R. F.; Piper, S. C.; Patra, P. K.; Stephens, B. B.; Wofsy, S. C.; Welp, L. R.; Sweeney, C.; Tans, P. P.; Kelley, J. J.; Daube, B. C.; Kort, E. A.; et al. (Science, 2013)
Every spring, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere decreases as terrestrial vegetation grows, and every fall, CO2 rises as vegetation dies and rots. Climate change has destabilized the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 such that Graven et al. (p. 1085, published online 8 August; see the Perspective by Fung) have found that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle has exceeded 50% at some latitudes. The only way to explain this increase is if extratropical land ecosystems are growing and shrinking more than they did half a century ago, as a result of changes in the structure and composition of northern ecosystems. Seasonal variations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Northern Hemisphere have increased since the 1950s, but sparse observations have prevented a clear assessment of the patterns of long-term change and the underlying mechanisms. We compare recent aircraft-based observations of CO2 above the North Pacific and Arctic Oceans to earlier data from 1958 to 1961 and find that the seasonal amplitude at altitudes of 3 to 6 km increased by 50% for 45° to 90°N but by less than 25% for 10° to 45°N. An increase of 30 to 60% in the seasonal exchange of CO2 by northern extratropical land ecosystems, focused on boreal forests, is implicated, substantially more than simulated by current land ecosystem models. The observations appear to signal large ecological changes in northern forests and a major shift in the global carbon cycle.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/341/6150/1085.full.pdf

A GIS Analysis of Climate Change and Snowpack on Columbia Basin Tribal Lands - Graves, David (Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, 2008)

Tree-ring based reconstructions of interannual to decadal scale precipitation variability for northeastern Utah since 1226 A.D. - Gray, Stephen T.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L. (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2004)
Keywords: drought tree rings water resources planning time-series analysis paleohydrology Uinta Basin Watershed Utah

Climate Change Impacts (Annex 9) - Great Lakes Water Quality (Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA), 2017)

Pacific Marine Arctic Regional Synthesis (PacMARS): Final Report - Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Cooper, Lee W.; Ashjian, Carin A.; Bluhm, Bodil A.; Campbell, Robert B.; Dunton, Kenneth E.; Moore, James; Okkonen, Steve; Sheffield, Gay; Trefry, John; Yamin-Pasternak, Sveta (North Pacific Research Board, 2015)

Accredited Entity: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) - Green Climate Fund (Green Climate Fund, 2015)
The Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) is a regional entity based in Samoa focused on climate change and environmental issues affecting SIDS in the Pacific. SPREP...

Climate Smart Communities Scenarios Health Impact Assessment - Green, Mandy; Hamberg, Andrea; Main, Eric; Early-Alberts, Julie; Dubuisson, Nadege; Douglas, Jae P. (Oregon Health Assessment, 2013)

Beneath the surface of global change: Impacts of climate change on groundwater - Green, Timothy R.; Taniguchi, Makoto; Kooi, Henk; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Hiscock, Kevin M.; Treidel, Holger; Aureli, Alice (Journal of Hydrology, 2011)
Keywords: Adaptation Climate change Global change Groundwater Soil water Vadose zone

Climate and the conservation biology of North Atlantic right whales: The right whale at the wrong time? - Greene, Charles H.; Pershing, Andrew J. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2004)
With the end of commercial whaling, it was thought that populations of the highly endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) would gradually recover. However, recent modeling studies have shown that the population’s growth rate increased gradually during the 1980s, but began declining in the early 1990s, when female mortality rates increased substantially. Demographic projections predict that, assuming birth and mortality rates remain comparable to those observed in the early 1990s, the population will become extinct in less than 200 years. Further extrapolations suggest that reducing mortality rates by a few female deaths per year through conservation efforts would be sufficient to support a slow recovery of the population. However, the effects of climate variability and change on calving rates may make the North Atlantic right whale even more vulnerable than previous projections have suggested. Failure to incorporate the effects of climate in demographic projections may lead us to underestimate the conservation efforts required to ensure recovery of this whale population.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Island of Saipan, CNMI - Greene, R.; Skeele, R. (Prepared for CNMI Office of the Governor, Division of Coastal Resources Management, 2014)

Impact of Hurricane Sandy on the Staten Island University Hospital Emergency Department - Greenstein, Josh; Chacko, Jerel; Ardolic, Brahim; Berwald, Nicole (Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 2016)
Introduction On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy touched down in New York City (NYC; New York USA) causing massive destruction, paralyzing the city, and destroying lives. Research has shown that considerable damage and loss of life can be averted in at-risk areas from advanced preparation in communication procedures, evacuation planning, and resource allocation. However, research is limited in describing how natural disasters of this magnitude affect emergency departments (EDs). Hypothesis/Problem The aim of this study was to identify and describe trends in patient volume and demographics, and types of conditions treated, as a result of Hurricane Sandy at Staten Island University Hospital North (SIUH-N; Staten Island, New York USA) site ED. Methods A retrospective chart review of patients presenting to SIUH-N in the days surrounding the storm, October 26, 2012 through November 2, 2012, was completed. Data were compared to the same week of the year prior, October 28, 2011 through November 4, 2011. Daily census, patient age, gender, admission rates, mode of arrival, and diagnoses in the days surrounding the storm were observed. Results A significant decline in patient volume was found in all age ranges on the day of landfall (Day 0) with a census of 114; -55% compared to 2011. The daily volume exhibited a precipitous drop on the days preceding the storm followed by a return to usual volumes shortly after. A notably larger percentage of patients were seen for medication refills in 2012; 5.8% versus 0.4% (PPP A large decline in admissions was observed in the days prior to the storm, with a nadir on Day +1 at five percent (-22%). Review of admitted patients revealed atypical admissions for home care service such as need for supplemental oxygen or ventilator. In addition, a drop in Emergency Medical Services (EMS) utilization was seen on Days 0 and +1. The SIUH-N typically sees 18% of patients arriving via EMS. On Day +1, only two percent of patients arrived by ambulance. Conclusion The daily ED census saw a significant decline in the days preceding the storm. In addition, the type of conditions treated varied from baseline, and a considerable drop in hospital admissions was seen. Data such as these presented here can help make predictions for future scenarios. Greenstein J , Chacko J , Ardolic B , Berwald N . Impact of Hurricane Sandy on the Staten Island University Hospital Emergency Department. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):335–339.
Keywords: disaster medicine emergency department emergency preparedness hurricane

Hawaiian Islands Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Synthesis - Gregg, Rachel M. (EcoAdapt, 2018)

State of Climate Adaptation in Water Resources Management: Southeastern United States and U.S. Caribbean - Gregg, Rachel M.; Reynier, Whitney A.; Score, Alessandra; Hilberg, Laura (EcoAdapt, 2017)

Values‐based measures of impacts to indigenous health - Gregory, Robin; Easterling, Doug; Kaechele, Nicole; Trousdale, William (Risk Analysis, 2016)
Values‐based indicators of risks to Indigenous health have the potential to improve the accuracy and quality of a wide range of decisions affecting Native lands and cultures. Current health impact assessment approaches often omit important health priorities rooted in the history, social structures, and cultural context of Indigenous communities. Insights and methods from the decision sciences can be used to develop more culturally appropriate and context‐relevant health indicators that can articulate and track changes to important dimensions of Indigenous health. Identifying and addressing priority cultural, social, economic, and environmental contributors to the health of Indigenous communities will help to generate better project alternatives and foster more responsive choices.

Structuring environmental management choices - Gregory, Robin; Failing, Lee; Harstone, Michael; Long, Graham; McDaniels, Tim; Ohlson, Dan (Structured Decision Making: A Practical Guide to Environmental Management Choices, 2012)

Decision aiding, not dispute resolution: Creating insights through structured environmental decisions - Gregory, R.; McDaniels, T.; Fields, D. (Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2001)

Range expansion of the invasive lionfish in the Northwest Atlantic with climate change - Grieve, Brian D.; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R. (Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2016)
Growing populations of invasive lionfishes Pterois volitans and P. miles have had detrimental impacts on native marine fish communities and transformed many of the reef ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. Over the last 3 decades, suitable environmental conditions and lack of natural biological controls have allowed lionfish populations to expand into areas ranging from the tropical waters of the Caribbean to the northern portions of the shelf break along the Southeast United States Continental Shelf (SEUSCS) during all months of the year. Under current climate conditions, continued expansion to waters further north or inshore from the shelf break is unlikely, given the physiological thermal tolerance of lionfish and the cooler temperatures of these waters. However, the geographic range of suitable environments may expand in the future with climate change. Here, we develop a conceptual model of the physical climate niche of lionfish and use projections of future ocean temperatures and salinities to explore potential lionfish habitat through the year 2100 under conditions of anthropogenic climate change. Without successful culling efforts or implementation of climate-change mitigation strategies, the spatial extent of suitable year-round lionfish habitat is expected to increase 45% on the SEUSCS during the 21st century, covering 90% of the region. Establishment of resident populations north of Cape Hatteras is unlikely. Nevertheless, in the coming decades, the potential impact of continued lionfish invasion on the valuable marine ecosystems of the SEUSCS is cause for concern.

Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf - Grieve, Brian D.; Hare, Jon A.; Saba, Vincent S. (Scientific Reports, 2017)
Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.

How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought? - Griffin, Daniel; Anchukaitis, Kevin J. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Keywords: drought tree rings paleoclimate 1637 Regional climate change 1812 Drought 1884 Water supply 3344 Paleoclimatology 4920 Dendrochronology

Landscape trends in mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States ecoregions - Griffith, Jerry A.; Stehman, Stephen V.; Loveland, Thomas R. (Environmental Management, 2003)
Landscape pattern and composition metrics are potential indicators for broad-scale monitoring of change and for relating change to human and ecological processes. We used a probability sample of 20-km × 20-km sampling blocks to characterize landscape composition and pattern in five US ecoregions: the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain, Southeastern Plains, Northern Piedmont, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge Mountains. Land use/land cover (LULC) data for five dates between 1972 and 2000 were obtained for each sample block. Analyses focused on quantifying trends in selected landscape pattern metrics by ecoregion and comparing trends in land cover proportions and pattern metrics among ecoregions. Repeated measures analysis of the landscape pattern documented a statistically significant trend in all five ecoregions towards a more fine-grained landscape from the early 1970s through 2000. The ecologically important forest cover class also became more fine-grained with time (i.e., more numerous and smaller forest patches). Trends in LULC, forest edge, and forest percent like adjacencies differed among ecoregions. These results suggest that ecoregions provide a geographically coherent way to regionalize the story of national land use and land cover change in the United States. This study provides new information on LULC change in the southeast United States. Previous studies of the region from the 1930s to the 1980s showed a decrease in landscape fragmentation and an increase in percent forest, while this study showed an increase in forest fragmentation and a loss of forest cover.

Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study for the City of Los Angeles - Grifman, Phyllis; Hart, Juliette; Ladwig, Jill; Mann, Alyssa Newton; Schulhof, Marika (University of Southern California Sea Grant Program, 2013)

Effects of extensive forest management on soil productivity - Grigal, David F. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2000)
Keywords: Soil productivity Forest harvest Nutrient depletion Soil physical properties

Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science - Griggs, Gary; Árvai, Joseph; Cayan, Dan; DeConto, Robert; Fox, Jenn; Fricker, Helen Amanda; Kopp, Robert E.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Whiteman, Elizabeth A. (California Ocean Science Trust, 2017)

The effects of armoring shorelines—The California experience - Griggs, Gary B. (Puget Sound Shorelines and the Impacts of Armoring— Proceedings of a State of the Science Workshop, 2009)
USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2010–5254

The impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function - Grimm, Nancy B.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Bierwagen, Britta; Gonzalez, Patrick; Groffman, Peter M.; Luo, Yiqi; Melton, Forrest; Nadelhoffer, Knute; Pairis, Amber; Raymond, Peter A.; Schimel, Josh; Williamson, Craig E. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2013)

Global change and the ecology of cities - Grimm, Nancy B.; Faeth, Stanley H.; Golubiewski, Nancy E.; Redman, Charles L.; Wu, Jianguo; Bai, Xuemei; Briggs, John M. (Science, 2008)
Urban areas are hot spots that drive environmental change at multiple scales. Material demands of production and human consumption alter land use and cover, biodiversity, and hydrosystems locally to regionally, and urban waste discharge affects local to global biogeochemical cycles and climate. For urbanites, however, global environmental changes are swamped by dramatic changes in the local environment. Urban ecology integrates natural and social sciences to study these radically altered local environments and their regional and global effects. Cities themselves present both the problems and solutions to sustainability challenges of an increasingly urbanized world.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/319/5864/756.full.pdf

Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5 - Grinsted, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Riva, R. E. M.; Dahl-Jensen, D. (Climate Research, 2015)
Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the British Isles, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea. The input to the regional sea level projection is a probabilistic projection of the major components of the global sea level budget. Local sea level rise is partly compensated by vertical land movement from glacial isostatic adjustment. We explore the uncertainties beyond the likely range provided by the IPCC, including the risk and potential rate of marine ice sheet collapse. Our median 21st century relative sea level rise projection is 0.8 m near London and Hamburg, with a relative sea level drop of 0.1 m in the Bay of Bothnia (near Oulu, Finland). Considerable uncertainties remain in both the sea level budget and in the regional expression of sea level rise. The greatest uncertainties are associated with Antarctic ice loss, and uncertainties are skewed towards higher values, with the 95th percentile being characterized by an additional 0.9 m sea level rise above median projections.

Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures - Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity are hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here, we relate a homogeneous record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges to changes in global temperature patterns. We examine 10 competing hypotheses using nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis with different predictors (North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Sahel rainfall, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, radiative forcing, Main Development Region temperatures and its anomaly, global temperatures, and gridded temperatures). We find that gridded temperatures, Main Development Region, and global average temperature explain the observations best. The most extreme events are especially sensitive to temperature changes, and we estimate a doubling of Katrina magnitude events associated with the warming over the 20th century. The increased risk depends on the spatial distribution of the temperature rise with highest sensitivity from tropical Atlantic, Central America, and the Indian Ocean. Statistically downscaling 21st century warming patterns from six climate models results in a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature (using BNU-ESM, BCC-CSM-1.1, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, and NorESM1-M).

Natural climate solutions - Griscom, Bronson W.; Adams, Justin; Ellis, Peter W.; Houghton, Richard A.; Lomax, Guy; Miteva, Daniela A.; Schlesinger, William H.; Shoch, David; Siikamäki, Juha V.; Smith, Pete; Woodbury, Peter; Zganjar, Chris; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize warming to below 2 °C. Alongside aggressive fossil fuel emissions reductions, NCS offer a powerful set of options for nations to deliver on the Paris Climate Agreement while improving soil productivity, cleaning our air and water, and maintaining biodiversity.Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters - Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, Dawn M.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R. (PLOS ONE, 2013)
The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

Ecological homogenization of urban USA - Groffman, Peter M.; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Bettez, Neil D.; Grove, J. Morgan; Hall, Sharon J.; Heffernan, James B.; Hobbie, Sarah E.; Larson, Kelli L.; Morse, Jennifer L.; Neill, Christopher; Nelson, Kristen; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath; et al. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2014)

Ch. 8: Ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services - Groffman, Peter M.; Kareiva, Peter; Carter, Shawn; Grimm, Nancy B.; Lawler, Josh; Mack, Michelle; Matzek, Virginia; Tallis, Heather (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Long-term integrated studies show complex and surprising effects of climate change in the northern hardwood forest - Groffman, P.M.; Rustad, L.E.; Templer, P.H.; Campbell, J.L.; Christenson, L.M.; Lany, N.K.; Socci, A.M.; Vadeboncouer, M.A.; Schaberg, P.G.; Wilson, G.F.; Driscoll, C.T.; Fahey, Timothy J.; et al. (BioScience, 2012)

Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record - Groisman, Pavel Ya.; Knight, Richard W.; Easterling, David R.; Karl, Thomas R.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Razuvaev, Vyacheslav N. (Journal of Climate, 2005)
Observed changes in intense precipitation (e.g., the frequency of very heavy precipitation or the upper 0.3% of daily precipitation events) have been analyzed for over half of the land area of the globe. These changes have been linked to changes in intense precipitation for three transient climate model simulations, all with greenhouse gas concentrations increasing during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and doubling in the later part of the twenty-first century. It was found that both the empirical evidence from the period of instrumental observations and model projections of a greenhouse-enriched atmosphere indicate an increasing probability of intense precipitation events for many extratropical regions including the United States. Although there can be ambiguity as to the impact of more frequent heavy precipitation events, the thresholds of the definitions of these events were raised here, such that they are likely to be disruptive. Unfortunately, reliable assertions of very heavy and extreme precipitation changes are possible only for regions with dense networks due to the small radius of correlation for many intense precipitation events.

Heavy precipitation and high streamflow in the contiguous United States: Trends in the twentieth century - Groisman, Pavel Ya.; Knight, Richard W.; Karl, Thomas R. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2001)
Changes in several components of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States have been documented during the twentieth century: an increase of precipitation, especially heavy and very heavy precipitation, and a significant retreat in spring snow cover extent over western regions during the last few decades. These changes have affected streamflow, including the probability of high flow. In the eastern half of the United States a significant relationship is found between the frequency of heavy precipitation and high streamflow events both annually and during the months of maximum streamflow. Two factors contributed to finding such a relation: 1) the relatively small contribution of snowmelt to heavy runoff in the eastern United States (compared to the west), and 2) the presence of a sufficiently dense network of streamflow and precipitation gauges available for analysis. An increase of spring heavy precipitation events over the eastern United States indicates with high probability that during the twentieth century an increase of high streamflow conditions has also occurred. In the West, a statistically significant reduction of snow cover extent has complicated the relation between heavy precipitation and streamflow. Increases in peak stream flow have not been observed here, despite increases in heavy precipitation events, and less extensive snow cover is the likely cause.

Changes in intense precipitation over the central United States - Groisman, P.Y.; Knight, R.W.; Karl, T.R. (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2012)
In examining intense precipitation over the central United States, the authors consider only days with precipitation when the daily total is above 12.7 mm and focus only on these days and multiday events constructed from such consecutive precipitation days. Analyses show that over the central United States, a statistically significant redistribution in the spectra of intense precipitation days/events during the past decades has occurred. Moderately heavy precipitation events (within a 12.7–25.4 mm day−1 range) became less frequent compared to days and events with precipitation totals above 25.4 mm. During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948–78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of “very heavy” (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events. Tropical cyclones associated with extreme precipitation do not significantly contribute to the changes reported in this study. With time, the internal precipitation structure (e.g., mean and maximum hourly precipitation rates within each preselected range of daily or multiday event totals) did not noticeably change. Several possible causes of observed changes in intense precipitation over the central United States are discussed and/or tested.
Keywords: North America,; Hydrologic cycle,; Extreme events,; Precipitation,; In situ observations

Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations - Groisman, P.Y.; Knight, R.W.; Karl, T.R.; Easterling, D.R.; Sun, B.; Lawrimore, J.H. (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2004)
Over the contiguous United States, precipitation, temperature, streamflow, and heavy and very heavy precipitation have increased during the twentieth century. In the east, high streamflow has increased as well. Soil wetness (as described by the Keetch–Byram Drought index) has increased over the northern and eastern regions of the United States, but in the southwestern quadrant of the country soil dryness has increased, making the region more susceptible to forest fires. In addition to these changes during the past 50 yr, increases in evaporation, near-surface humidity, total cloud cover, and low stratiform and cumulonimbus clouds have been observed. Snow cover has diminished earlier in the year in the west, and a decrease in near-surface wind speed has also occurred in many areas. Much of the increase in heavy and very heavy precipitation has occurred during the past three decades.

Water Levels Surge on Great Lakes - Gronewold, Andrew D.; Clites, Anne H.; Bruxer, Jacob; Kompoltowicz, Keith W.; Smith, Joeseph P.; Hunter, Timothy S.; Wong, Cary (Eos, Earth & Space Science News, 2015)

Vulnerability to extreme heat by socio-demographic characteristics and area green space among the elderly in Michigan, 1990-2007 - Gronlund, Carina J.; Berrocal, Veronica J.; White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Conlon, Kathryn C.; O'Neill, Marie S. (Environmental Research, 2015)
OBJECTIVES: We examined how individual and area socio-demographic characteristics independently modified the extreme heat (EH)-mortality association among elderly residents of 8 Michigan cities, May-September, 1990-2007. METHODS: In a time-stratified case-crossover design, we regressed cause-specific mortality against EH (indicator for 4-day mean, minimum, maximum or apparent temperature above 97th or 99th percentiles). We examined effect modification with interactions between EH and personal marital status, age, race, sex and education and ZIP-code percent “non-green space” (National Land Cover Dataset), age, race, income, education, living alone, and housing age (U.S. Census). RESULTS: In models including multiple effect modifiers, the odds of cardiovascular mortality during EH (99(th) percentile threshold) vs. non-EH were higher among non-married individuals (1.21, 95% CI = 1.14-1.28 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.90-1.07 among married individuals) and individuals in ZIP codes with high (91%) non-green space (1.17, 95% CI = 1.06-1.29 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.89-1.07 among individuals in ZIP codes with low (39%) non-green space). Results suggested that housing age may also be an effect modifier. For the EH-respiratory mortality association, the results were inconsistent between temperature metrics and percentile thresholds of EH but largely insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Green space, housing and social isolation may independently enhance elderly peoples’ heat-related cardiovascular mortality vulnerability. Local adaptation efforts should target areas and populations at greater risk.

Vulnerability to renal, heat and respiratory hospitalizations during extreme heat among U.S. elderly - Gronlund, Carina J.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Wellenius, Gregory A.; Schwartz, Joel D.; O’Neill, Marie S. (Climatic Change, 2016)
Extreme heat (EH) is a growing concern with climate change, and protecting human health requires knowledge of vulnerability factors. We evaluated whether associations between EH (maximum temperature > 97th percentile) and hospitalization for renal, heat and respiratory diseases among people > 65 years differed by individual and area-level characteristics. We used Medicare billing records, airport weather data, U.S. Census data and satellite land cover imagery in 109 US cities, May-September, 1992-2006, in a time-stratified case-crossover design. Interaction terms between EH and individual (> 78 years, black race, sex) and home ZIP-code (percentages of non-green space, high school education, housing built before 1940) characteristics were incorporated in a single model. Next, we pooled city-specific effect estimates or regressed them on quartiles of air conditioning prevalence (ACP) in a multivariate random effects meta-analysis. EH and combined renal/heat/respiratory hospitalization associations were stronger among blacks, the very old, in ZIP codes with lower educational attainment or older housing and in cities with lower ACP. For example, for EH versus non-heat days, we found a 15% (95% CI 11%-19%) increase in renal/heat/respiratory hospitalizations among individuals in ZIP codes with higher percent of older homes in contrast to a 9% (95% CI 6%-12%) increase in hospitalizations in ZIP codes with lower percent older homes. Vulnerability to EH-associated hospitalization may be influenced by age, educational attainment, housing age and ACP.

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains - Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Talbert, Marian; Chang, Tony; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T. (Climate Change in Wildlands: Pioneering Approaches to Science and Management, 2016)
Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

Asserting Native Resilience: Pacific Rim Indigenous Nations Face the Climate Crisis - Grossman, Z.; Parker, A.; Frank, B. (Oregon State University Press, 2012)

PROV-Overview: An Overview of the PROV Family of Documents: W3C Working Group Note 30 April 2013 - Groth, Paul; Moreau, Luc, Eds. (2013)

Developing Key Indicators for Adaptive Water Planning - Groves, David G.; Bloom, Evan; Lempert, Robert J.; Fischbach, Jordan R.; Nevills, Jennifer; Goshi, Brandon (Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2015)
With hard-to-predict changes in future demand, climate, supply options, technological opportunities, and budgetary constraints, water agency plans should be flexible and robust, designed to meet agency goals over a wide range of plausible future conditions. But current state-of-the-art approaches to water planning make it difficult to craft flexible and robust plans to guide resource allocation and facilitate discussions with the agency’s constituents and ratepayers. This paper describes an innovative effort by one agency, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (termed Metropolitan), to begin to address these challenges. Metropolitan’s year 2010 integrated resources plan (IRP) update specifies resource allocations over 25 years and calls for an adaptive management approach to revisit these allocations over time. Using a quantitative decision support approach called robust decision-making (RDM), an enhanced version of Metropolitan’s main planning model was run, over many thousands of cases representing different combinations of assumptions about future demand, conditions in the bay/delta, climate conditions, local resource yields, and implementation challenges. Statistical cluster analysis on the resulting database of model runs identifies scenarios that succinctly summarize the types of future conditions in which the IRP core resources strategy does and does not meet its goals. These scenarios inform early warning indicators that can guide the adaptive management component of the IRP. The robust decision methods presented in this paper should prove broadly useful for Metropolitan in addition to other water agencies seeking to develop robust and adaptive plans in the face of uncertain future conditions.

Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of Zika virus into the United States - Grubaugh, Nathan D.; Ladner, Jason T.; Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Dudas, Gytis; Tan, Amanda L.; Gangavarapu, Karthik; Wiley, Michael R.; White, Stephen; Thézé, Julien; Magnani, Diogo M.; Prieto, Karla; Reyes, Daniel; et al. (Nature, 2017)

Rapid progression of ocean acidification in the California Current System - Gruber, N.; Hauri, C.; Lachkar, Z.; Loher, D.; Frölicher, T.L.; Plattner, G.K. (Science, 2012)

Tribal Climate Change Principles: Responding to Federal Policies and Actions to Address Climate Change. [Unpulished report on file with TCCP] - Gruenig, Bob; Lynn, Kathy; Voggesser, Garrit; Whyte, Kyle Powys (Tribal Climate Change Project (TCCP), 2015)

The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? - Gu, Lianhong; Hanson, Paul J.; Post, W. Mac; Kaiser, Dale P.; Yang, Bai; Nemani, Ramakrishna; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Meyers, Tilden (BioScience, 2008)
Plant ecologists have long been concerned with a seemingly paradoxical scenario in the relationship between plant growth and climate change: warming may actually increase the risk of plant frost damage. The underlying hypothesis is that mild winters and warm, early springs, which are expected to occur as the climate warms, may induce premature plant development, resulting in exposure of vulnerable plant tissues and organs to subsequent late-season frosts. The 2007 spring freeze in the eastern United States provides an excellent opportunity to evaluate this hypothesis and assess its large-scale consequences. In this article, we contrast the rapid prefreeze phenological advancement caused by unusually warm conditions with the dramatic postfreeze setback, and report complicated patterns of freeze damage to plants. The widespread devastation of crops and natural vegetation occasioned by this event demonstrates the need to consider large fluctuations in spring temperatures a real threat to terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning in a warming climate.
10.1641/B580311

Extreme snowfall events linked to atmospheric rivers and surface air temperature via satellite measurements - Guan, Bin; Molotch, Noah P.; Waliser, Duane E.; Fetzer, Eric J.; Neiman, Paul J. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2010)
Keywords: extreme snowfall Sierra Nevada atmospheric river snow water equivalent surface air temperature 1817 Extreme events 1840 Hydrometeorology 1807 Climate impacts

Decreased streamflow in semi-arid basins following drought-induced tree die-off: A counter-intuitive and indirect climate impact on hydrology - Guardiola-Claramonte, M.; Troch, Peter A.; Breshears, David D.; Huxman, Travis E.; Switanek, Matthew B.; Durcik, Matej; Cobb, Neil S. (Journal of Hydrology, 2011)
Keywords: Die-off Piñon pine () Water yield Runoff coefficient Drought Southwestern USA

Protecting traditional water resources: Legal options for preserving tribal non-consumptive water use - Guarino, Julia (Public Land and Resources Law Review, 2016)

Characterizing occupational heat-related mortality in the United States, 2000–2010: An analysis using the census of fatal occupational injuries database - Gubernot, Diane M.; Anderson, G. Brooke; Hunting, Katherine L. (American Journal of Industrial Medicine, 2015)
Keywords: heat exposure occupational health workplace health and safety climate change

Dengue hemorrhagic fever—U.S.-Mexico border, 2005 - Gubler, D.J.; Ramirez, J.; Burton, R. (MMWR: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 2007)

Climate variability and change in the United States: Potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases - Gubler, Duane J.; Reiter, Paul; Ebi, Kristie L.; Yap, Wendy; Nasci, Roger; Patz, Jonathan A. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2001)
Ch4,9

Primary Protection: Enhancing Health Care Resilience for a Changing Climate - Guenther, Robin; Balbus, John (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2014)

The Impact of the Beef Industry in the Southern Ogallala Region - Guerrero, Bridget; Amosson, Steve; McCollum, Ted (Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, 2013)

Connecting climate information producers and users: Boundary organization, knowledge networks, and information brokers at Caribbean Climate Outlook forums - Guido, Zack; Rountree, Valerie; Greene, Christina; Gerlak, Andrea; Trotman, Adrian (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2016)
Boundary organizations, knowledge networks, and information brokers have been suggested as mechanisms that help integrate information into decision-making and enhance interactions between the producers and users of climate information. While these mechanisms have been discussed in many studies in disparate fields of research, there has been little empirical research describing how they relate and support each other within studies on climate services. In this paper, two Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forums (CariCOFs) convened in 2014 are studied. CariCOFs facilitate the production of regional seasonal climate information and the dissemination of it to a diverse climate and socioeconomic region. Network analysis, key informant interviews, and small group discussions were used to answer two questions: 1) what are the barriers to using seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) by CariCOF participants and 2) what are the iterative processes of information exchange that address these barriers? The barriers to using SCF include difficulty in demonstrating the value of the forecast to potential users, difficulty in interpreting and explaining the forecast to others, and challenges associated with the scientific language used in the information. To address these constraints, the convener of the CariCOF acts as a boundary organization by enabling interactions between participants representing diverse sectoral and geographic settings. This develops a network that helps build shared scientific understanding and knowledge about how different sectors experience climate risk. These interactions guide information brokering activities that help individuals communicate and translate climate information to facilitate understanding at local levels.
Keywords: Forecasting,Seasonal forecasting,Applications,Communications/decision making,Societal impacts

Impacts of projected climate change over the Lake Champlain basin in Vermont - Guilbert, Justin; Beckage, Brian; Winter, Jonathan M.; Horton, Radley M.; Perkins, Timothy; Bomblies, Arne (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2014)
The Lake Champlain basin is a critical ecological and socioeconomic resource of the northeastern United States and southern Quebec, Canada. While general circulation models (GCMs) provide an overview of climate change in the region, they lack the spatial and temporal resolution necessary to fully anticipate the effects of rising global temperatures associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Observed trends in precipitation and temperature were assessed across the Lake Champlain basin to bridge the gap between global climate change and local impacts. Future shifts in precipitation and temperature were evaluated as well as derived indices, including maple syrup production, days above 32.2°C (90°F), and snowfall, relevant to managing the natural and human environments in the region. Four statistically downscaled, bias-corrected GCM simulations were evaluated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to sample the uncertainty in future climate simulations. Precipitation is projected to increase by between 9.1 and 12.8 mm yr−1 decade−1 during the twenty-first century while daily temperatures are projected to increase between 0.43° and 0.49°C decade−1. Annual snowfall at six major ski resorts in the region is projected to decrease between 46.9% and 52.4% by the late twenty-first century. In the month of July, the number of days above 32.2°C in Burlington, Vermont, is projected to increase by over 10 days during the twenty-first century.
Keywords: North America,Climate change,Climate prediction,Climate records,Climate models,Societal impacts

Characterization of increased persistence and intensity of precipitation in the northeastern United States - Guilbert, Justin; Betts, Alan K.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Beckage, Brian; Bomblies, Arne (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: precipitation climate change persistent precipitation intense precipitation 1637 Regional climate change 1616 Climate variability 1719 Hydrology 1807 Climate impacts 1817 Extreme events

Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US - Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Pierce, David W. (Climate Dynamics, 2018)
Analyses of observed non-Gaussian daily minimum and maximum temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs) in the Southwest US highlight the importance of variance and warm tail length in determining future heat wave probability. Even if no PDF shape change occurs with climate change, locations with shorter warm tails and/or smaller variance will see a greater increase in heat wave probability, defined as exceedances above the historical 95th percentile threshold, than will long tailed/larger variance distributions. Projections from ten downscaled CMIP5 models show important geospatial differences in the amount of warming expected for a location. However, changes in heat wave probability do not directly follow changes in background warming. Projected changes in heat wave probability are largely explained by a rigid shift of the daily temperature distribution. In some locations where there is more warming, future heat wave probability is buffered somewhat by longer warm tails. In other parts of the Southwest where there is less warming, heat wave probability is relatively enhanced because of shorter tailed PDFs. Effects of PDF shape changes are generally small by comparison to those from a rigid shift, and fall within the range of uncertainty among models in the amount of warming expected by the end of the century.

The impact of recent heat waves on human health in California - Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Tardy, Alexander; Basu, Rupa (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2014)
This study examines the health impacts of recent heat waves statewide and for six subregions of California: the north and south coasts, the Central Valley, the Mojave Desert, southern deserts, and northern forests. By using canonical correlation analysis applied to daily maximum temperatures and morbidity data in the form of unscheduled hospitalizations from 1999 to 2009, 19 heat waves spanning 3?15 days in duration that had a significant impact on health were identified. On average, hospital admissions were found to increase by 7% on the peak heat-wave day, with a significant impact seen for several disease categories, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, dehydration, acute renal failure, heat illness, and mental health. Statewide, there were 11 000 excess hospitalizations that were due to extreme heat over the period, yet the majority of impactful events were not accompanied by a heat advisory or warning from the National Weather Service. On a regional basis, the strongest health impacts are seen in the Central Valley and the north and south coasts. The north coast contributes disproportionately to the statewide health impact during heat waves, with a 10.5% increase in daily morbidity at heat-wave peak as compared with 8.1% for the Central Valley and 5.6% for the south coast. The temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by subregion and timing within the season. These results suggest that heat-warning criteria should consider local percentile thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatological conditions as well as the seasonal timing of a forecast heat wave.

Conservation Planning Atlas [web tool] - Gulf Coast Prairie Landscape Conservation Cooperative (Conservation Biology Institute, 2018)