Recent Arctic Ocean sea ice loss triggers novel fall phytoplankton blooms - Ardyna, Mathieu; Babin, Marcel; Gosselin, Michel; Devred, Emmanuel; Rainville, Luc; Tremblay, Jean-Éric (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Keywords: Arctic phytoplankton phenology wind sea ice climate change 1637 Regional climate change 1640 Remote sensing 4207 Arctic and Antarctic oceanography 4855 Phytoplankton

Key economic sectors and services - Arent, D. J.; Tol, R. S. J.; Faust, E.; Hella, J. P.; Kumar, S.; Strzepek, K. M.; Tóth, F. L.; Yan, D. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 2014)

Trends in stream nitrogen concentrations for forested reference catchments across the USA - Argerich, A.; Johnson, S. L.; Sebestyen, S. D.; Rhoades, C. C.; Greathouse, E.; Knoepp, J. D.; Adams, M. B.; Likens, G. E.; Campbell, J. L.; McDowell, W. H.; Scatena, F. N.; Ice, G. G. (Environmental Research Letters, 2013)
To examine whether stream nitrogen concentrations in forested reference catchments have changed over time and if patterns were consistent across the USA, we synthesized up to 44 yr of data collected from 22 catchments at seven USDA Forest Service Experimental Forests. Trends in stream nitrogen presented high spatial variability both among catchments at a site and among sites across the USA. We found both increasing and decreasing trends in monthly flow-weighted stream nitrate and ammonium concentrations. At a subset of the catchments, we found that the length and period of analysis influenced whether trends were positive, negative or non-significant. Trends also differed among neighboring catchments within several Experimental Forests, suggesting the importance of catchment-specific factors in determining nutrient exports. Over the longest time periods, trends were more consistent among catchments within sites, although there are fewer long-term records for analysis. These findings highlight the critical value of long-term, uninterrupted stream chemistry monitoring at a network of sites across the USA to elucidate patterns of change in nutrient concentrations at minimally disturbed forested sites.

Argo Float Data and Metadata - Argo (Argo Global Data Assembly Centre (GDAC), 2000)

Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change - Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Fita, Lluís; Bormann, Kathryn J. (Climate Dynamics, 2014)
This study examines the impact of future urban expansion on local near-surface temperature for Sydney (Australia) using a future climate scenario (A2). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) climates of the region at 2-km spatial resolution. The standard land use of the model was replaced with a more accurate dataset that covers the Sydney area. The future simulation incorporates the projected changes in the urban area of Sydney to account for the expected urban expansion. A comparison between areas with projected land use changes and their surroundings was conducted to evaluate how urbanization and global warming will act together and to ascertain their combined effect on the local climate. The analysis of the temperature changes revealed that future urbanization will strongly affect minimum temperature, whereas little impact was detected for maximum temperature. The minimum temperature changes will be noticeable throughout the year. However, during winter and spring these differences will be particularly large and the increases could be double the increase due to global warming alone at 2050. Results indicated that the changes were mostly due to increased heat capacity of urban structures and reduced evaporation in the city environment.

Influence of glacier runoff on ecosystem structure in Gulf of Alaska fjords - Arimitsu, Mayumi L.; Piatt, John F.; Mueter, Franz J. (Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2016)

Heat Emergency Response Plan - Arizona Department of Health Services (Arizona Department of Health Services, 2014)

Flagstaff Watershed Protection Project Cost Avoidance Study - Arizona Rural Policy Institute (Northern Arizona University, 2014)

Coastal habitats shield people and property from sea-level rise and storms - Arkema, Katie K.; Guannel, Greg; Verutes, Gregory; Wood, Spencer A.; Guerry, Anne; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Kareiva, Peter; Lacayo, Martin; Silver, Jessica M. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

Socio-ecological change in Canada's Arctic: Coping, adapting, and learning for an uncertain future - Armitage, Derek (Climate Change and the Coast: Building Resilient Communities, 2015)

Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: A review - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Beecham, S.; Pathirana, A.; Bülow Gregersen, I.; Madsen, H.; Nguyen, V.-T.-V. (Water Science and Technology, 2013)
A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of how to describe precipitation patterns in a changing climate in order to design and operate urban drainage infrastructure. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future.

Alaska: Last frontier on the front lines - Arndt, Deke (Climate.gov: Beyond the Data, 2016)

Two decades of urban climate research: A review of turbulence, exchanges of energy and water, and the urban heat island - Arnfield, A.J. (International Journal of Climatology, 2003)
Progress in urban climatology over the two decades since the first publication of the International Journal of Climatology is reviewed. It is emphasized that urban climatology during this period has benefited from conceptual advances made in microclimatology and boundary-layer climatology in general. The role of scale, heterogeneity, dynamic source areas for turbulent fluxes and the complexity introduced by the roughness sublayer over the tall, rigid roughness elements of cities is described. The diversity of urban heat islands, depending on the medium sensed and the sensing technique, is explained. The review focuses on two areas within urban climatology. First, it assesses advances in the study of selected urban climatic processes relating to urban atmospheric turbulence (including surface roughness) and exchange processes for energy and water, at scales of consideration ranging from individual facets of the urban environment, through streets and city blocks to neighbourhoods. Second, it explores the literature on the urban temperature field. The state of knowledge about urban heat islands around 1980 is described and work since then is assessed in terms of similarities to and contrasts with that situation. Finally, the main advances are summarized and recommendations for urban climate work in the future are made. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.
Keywords: urban climate; urban energy budget; urban water budget; urban heat island; urban atmospheric turbulence; urban roughness; spatial heterogeneity

Deer and invasive plant species suppress forest herbaceous communities and canopy tree regeneration - Aronson, Myla F. J.; Handel, Steven N. (Natural Areas Journal, 2011)

Impact of a shrinking Arctic ice cover on marine primary production - Arrigo, Kevin R.; van Dijken, Gert; Pabi, Sudeshna (Geophysical Research Letters, 2008)
Keywords: Arctic sea ice primary production 4207 Arctic and Antarctic oceanography 4805 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 4855 Phytoplankton

Baseline and distribution of organic pollutants and heavy metals in tidal creek sediments after Hurricane Sandy in the Meadowlands of New Jersey - Artigas, Francisco; Loh, Ji Meng; Shin, Jin Young; Grzyb, Joe; Yao, Ying (Environmental Earth Sciences, 2017)
The relatively low cost of lands along with a privileged location near an urban center attracted industry to the Meadowlands of New Jersey and the absence of regulations resulted in vast amounts of industrial waste emitted into the air and dumped to nearby estuaries and marshlands. Hurricane Sandy created an unprecedented sea surge that overtopped berms and tide gates and extensively flooded approximately 22.8 km2 of a low lying basin that includes Berry’s Creek, a tributary to the Hackensack River and well known for its legacy of high levels of contamination. The sea surge connected Berry’s Creek with eastern creeks that flow into the Hackensack River for several tidal cycles. The objectives of this study were to establish a baseline for organic pollutants and heavy metals post Superstorm Sandy, determine whether contaminants from highly contaminated areas moved to the eastern creeks during the surge and measure contaminant gradients around tide gates. Cadmium, mercury and chromium were the most abundant contaminants in sediments, and pollutants responsible for the highest ecological risk were Hg and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Concentrations of PCBs were higher in the western creeks and contrary to metals did not show concentration gradients from either side of tide gates. Massive export of contaminants from western to eastern creeks due to the surge was not apparent. The abundance of heavy metals in the vicinity of tide gates shows that they play a role in their distribution across the estuary.

Toolkit for Resilient Cities: Infrastructure, Technology and Urban Planning - Arup; Regional Plan Association; Siemens (Arup, Regional Plan Association, and Siemens, 2013)

Climate Change Adaptation Guide for Transportation Systems Management, Operations, and Maintenance - Asam, Susan; Bhat, Cassandra; Dix, Brenda; Bauer, Jocelyn; Gopalakrishna, Deepak (Federal Highway Administration, 2015)

Stormwater Management in Response to Climate Change Impacts: Lessons from the Chesapeake Bay and Great Lakes Regions - Asam, Susan; Spindler, Dana; Julius, Susan; Beierwagen, Brita (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2016)

2013 Report for Oklahoma's Infrastructure - ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2013)

2013 Report Card for Kansas' Infrastructure - ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2013)

2014 Pennsylvania Infrastructure Report Card - ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2014)

Failure to Act: Closing the Infrastructure Investment Gap For America’s Economic Future. 2017 Infrastructure Report Card - ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2016)

2017 Infrastructure Report Card: Dams - ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2017)

Report Card for Texas' Infrastructure 2017 - ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2017)

2017 Infrastructure Report Card - ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2017)

2017 Infrastructure Report Card: Levees - ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2017)

2017 Infrastructure Report Card: Energy - ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2017)

Climate change and decadal shifts in the phenology of larval fishes in the California Current ecosystem - Asch, Rebecca G. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends.

Future marine ecosystem drivers, biodiversity, and fisheries maximum catch potential in Pacific Island countries and territories under climate change - Asch, Rebecca G.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel (Marine Policy, 2018)
Keywords: Climate change Pacific Island countries and territories Marine biogeochemistry Biodiversity Maximum catch potential Marine fisheries

A level-of-service concept for planning future water supply projects under probabilistic demand and supply framework - Asefa, Tirusew; Adams, Alison; Wanakule, Nisai (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2015)
Keywords: level-of-service reliability water supply planning probabilistic supply and demand water utilities

Managing Climate Risk Using Climate-Smart Agriculture - Asfaw, Solomon; Lipper, Leslie (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2016)

[web site] - ASFPM (Association of State Floodplain Managers (ASFPM), 2017)

Tracking lags in historical plant species’ shifts in relation to regional climate change - Ash, Jeremy D.; Givnish, Thomas J.; Waller, Donald M. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: climate analog forest understory functional traits geographic centroid migratory lag

"Food Desert" American Samoa: Assessing Food Desert at School Locations - Asifoa-Lagai, Molly (American Samoa Community College, 2012)

Statement on Climate Change - ASLA (American Society of Landscape Architects (ASLA), 2008)

‘Late lessons from early warnings’—Uncertainty and precaution in policy approaches to Arctic climate change impacts - Aslaksen, Iulie; Glomsrød, Solveig; Myhr, Anne Ingeborg (Polar Geography, 2012)

Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012–2015 California drought - Asner, Gregory P.; Brodrick, Philip G.; Anderson, Christopher B.; Vaughn, Nicholas; Knapp, David E.; Martin, Roberta E. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated millennial-scale event on forest health is unknown. We used airborne laser-guided spectroscopy and satellite-based models to assess losses in canopy water content of California’s forests between 2011 and 2015. Approximately 10.6 million ha of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable loss in canopy water content during this drought period. Severe canopy water losses of greater than 30% occurred over 1 million ha, affecting up to 58 million large trees. Our measurements exclude forests affected by fire between 2011 and 2015. If drought conditions continue or reoccur, even with temporary reprieves such as El Niño, we predict substantial future forest change.

Challenging return to play decisions: Heat stroke, exertional rhabdomyolysis, and exertional collapse associated with sickle cell trait - Asplund, Chad A.; O’Connor, Francis G. (Sports Health, 2016)
Context:Sports medicine providers frequently return athletes to play after sports-related injuries and conditions. Many of these conditions have guidelines or medical evidence to guide the decision-making process. Occasionally, however, sports medicine providers are challenged with complex medical conditions for which there is little evidence-based guidance and physicians are instructed to individualize treatment; included in this group of conditions are exertional heat stroke (EHS), exertional rhabdomyolysis (ER), and exertional collapse associated with sickle cell trait (ECAST).Evidence Acquisition:The MEDLINE (2000-2015) database was searched using the following search terms: exertional heat stroke, exertional rhabdomyolysis, and exertional collapse associated with sickle cell trait. References from consensus statements, review articles, and book chapters were also utilized.Study Design:Clinical review.Level of Evidence:Level 4.Results:These entities are unique in that they may cause organ system damage capable of leading to short- or long-term detriments to physical activity and may not lend to complete recovery, potentially putting the athlete at risk with premature return to play.Conclusion:With a better understanding of the pathophysiology of EHS, ER, and ECAST and the factors associated with recovery, better decisions regarding return to play may be made.
Keywords: return to play,heat illness,rhabdomyolysis,sickle cell trait

Executive Summary: Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation. Contribution from Grupo de Trabalho 2 (Working Group 2) to the Primeiro Relatório de Avaliação Nacional sobre Mudanças Climáticas of the Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas (GT2 RAN1 PBMC) - Assad, Eduardo Delgado; Magalhães, Antônio Rocha (COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 2013)
ISBN: 978-85-285-0207-7

Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production - Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; Reynolds, M. P.; Alderman, P. D.; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Shifting permafrost threatens Alaska village's new airport - Associated Press (CBC News, 2017)

Amtrak suspends rail service across Missouri - Associated Press (2017)

'Flesh eating bacteria’ from Harvey’s floodwaters kill a woman - Astor, Maggie (New York Times, 2017)

Flood Loss Avoidance Benefits of Green Infrastructure for Stormwater Management. Prepared for U.S. EPA - Atkins (Atkins, 2015)

Sea level rise and flooding risk in Virginia - Atkinson, Larry P.; Ezer, Tal; Smith, Elizabeth (Sea Grant Law and Policy Journal, 2013)

Effects of climate change on US grain transport - Attavanich, Witsanu; McCarl, Bruce A.; Ahmedov, Zafarbek; Fuller, Stephen W.; Vedenov, Dmitry V. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

A History of Florida Citrus Freezes - Attaway, John A. (Flordia Science Source, 1997)

Management of in-bin grain drying and storage systems for improved grain quality and prevention of mycotoxins - Atungulu, G. R. (USDA Research, Education & Economics Information System, 2017)

Predicting forest dieback in Maine, USA: A simple model based on soil frost and drought - Auclair, Allan N. D.; Heilman, Warren E.; Brinkman, Blondel (Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2010)

Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States - Auffhammer, Maximilian; Baylis, Patrick; Hausman, Catherine H. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond [Rose S, et al. (2014) Understanding the Social Cost of Carbon: A Technical Assessment]. The empirical literature has shown significant increases in climate-driven impacts on overall consumption, yet has not focused on the cost implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme events driving peak demand, which is the highest load observed in a period. We use comprehensive, high-frequency data at the level of load balancing authorities to parameterize the relationship between average or peak electricity demand and temperature for a major economy. Using statistical models, we analyze multiyear data from 166 load balancing authorities in the United States. We couple the estimated temperature response functions for total daily consumption and daily peak load with 18 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climate change-driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and heterogeneous changes in consumption, with an average increase of 2.8% by end of century. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant increases in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States, assuming today’s technology and electricity market fundamentals. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating capacity, suggesting additional peak capacity costs of up to 180 billion dollars by the end of the century under business-as-usual.

Empirical studies on agricultural impacts and adaptation - Auffhammer, Maximilian; Schlenker, Wolfram (Energy Economics, 2014)
Keywords: Climate change Adaptation Integrated assessment Reduced form studies

Elevated CO2 induces substantial and persistent declines in forage quality irrespective of warming in mixedgrass prairie - Augustine, David J.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Springer, Tim L.; LeCain, Daniel R.; Gunter, Stacey A.; Derner, Justin D. (Ecological Applications, 2018)
Increasing atmospheric [CO2] and temperature are expected to affect the productivity, species composition, biogeochemistry, and therefore the quantity and quality of forage available to herbivores in rangeland ecosystems. Both elevated CO2 (eCO2) and warming affect plant tissue chemistry through multiple direct and indirect pathways, such that the cumulative outcomes of these effects are difficult to predict. Here, we report on a 7-yr study examining effects of CO2 enrichment (to 600 ppm) and infrared warming (+1.5°C day/3°C night) under realistic field conditions on forage quality and quantity in a semiarid, mixedgrass prairie. For the three dominant forage grasses, warming effects on in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and tissue [N] were detected only in certain years, varied from negative to positive, and were relatively minor. In contrast, eCO2 substantially reduced IVDMD (two most abundant grasses) and [N] (all three dominant grass species) in most years, except the two wettest years. Furthermore, eCO2 reduced IVDMD and [N] independent of warming effects. Reduced IVDMD with eCO2 was related both to reduced [N] and increased acid detergent fiber (ADF) content of grass tissues. For the six most abundant forage species (representing 96% of total forage production), combined warming and eCO2 increased forage production by 38% and reduced forage [N] by 13% relative to ambient climate. Although the absolute magnitude of the decline in IVDMD and [N] due to combined warming and eCO2 may seem small (e.g., from 63.3 to 61.1% IVDMD and 1.25 to 1.04% [N] for Pascopyrum smithii), such shifts could have substantial consequences for the rate at which ruminants gain weight during the primary growing season in the largest remaining rangeland ecosystem in North America. With forage production increases, declining forage quality could potentially be mitigated by adaptively increasing stocking rates, and through management such as prescribed burning, fertilization at low rates, and legume interseeding to enhance forage quality.

Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data - Ault, Toby R.; Cole, Julia E.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Meko, David M. (Journal of Climate, 2014)
Projected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the U.S. Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; the analysis herein suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas. The likelihood of longer-lived events (>35 yr) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-yr megadrought is nonnegligible under the most severe warming scenario (5%–10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadrought—worse than anything seen during the last 2000 years—would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region.
Keywords: Drought,Paleoclimate,Risk assessment,General circulation models,Climate variability

The false spring of 2012, earliest in North American record - Ault, T. R.; Henebry, G. M.; de Beurs, K. M.; Schwartz, M. D.; Betancourt, J. L.; Moore, D. (Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 2013)
Keywords: phenology spring onset drought false spring 0439 Ecosystems: structure and dynamics 1616 Climate variability 1630 Impacts of global change 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions 1640 Remote sensing

Northern Hemisphere modes of variability and the timing of spring in western North America - Ault, T. R.; Macalady, A. K.; Pederson, G. T.; Betancourt, J. L.; Schwartz, M. D. (Journal of Climate, 2011)
Keywords: united-states; annular mode; extratropical circulation; geopotential; height; climate-change; part i; trends; phenology; earlier; wildfire

Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest - Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E. (Science Advances, 2016)
Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

Trends and natural variability of spring onset in the coterminous United States as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices - Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Zurita-Milla, Raul; Weltzin, Jake F.; Betancourt, Julio L. (Journal of Climate, 2015)
Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from −0.8 to −1.6 days decade−1, while first bloom index trends are between −0.4 and −1.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.
Keywords: Climate variability,Decadal variability,Interannual variability,Multidecadal variability,Spring season,Agriculture

A century of temperature variability in Lake Superior - Austin, Jay; Colman, Steve (Limnology and Oceanography, 2008)

Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback - Austin, Jay A.; Colman, Steven M. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2007)
Lake Superior summer (July-September) surface water temperatures have increased approximately 2.5°C over the interval 1979-2006, equivalent to a rate of (11 ± 6) × 10^-2°C yr^-1, significantly in excess of regional atmospheric warming. This discrepancy is caused by declining winter ice cover, which is causing the onset of the positively stratified season to occur earlier at a rate of roughly a half day per year. An earlier start of the stratified season significantly increases the period over which the lake warms during the summer months, leading to a stronger trend in mean summer temperatures than would be expected from changes in summer air temperature alone.
Keywords: Lake Superior; climate change; ice; 0746 Cryosphere: Lakes; 1630 Global Change: Impacts of global change; 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change; 1845 Hydrology: Limnology; 4239 Oceanography: General: Limnology

Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research. Volume 1: Regional Overview. Volume 2: Country Reports. - Australian Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO (2011)

Climate Variability, Extremes and Change in the Western Tropical Pacific: New Science and Updated Country Reports 2014 - Australian Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), 2014)

Multinational and large national corporations and climate adaptation: Are we asking the right questions? A review of current knowledge and a new research perspective - Averchenkova, Alina; Crick, Florence; Kocornik-Mina, Adriana; Leck, Hayley; Surminski, Swenja (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2016)

Report Development Process - Avery, C.W.; Carter, T.S.; Lewis, K.L.M.; Reeves, K.; Reidmiller, D.R. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Data Tools and Scenarios Products - Avery, C.W.; Reidmiller, D.R.; Kolian, M.; Kunkel, K.E.; Herring, D.; Sherman, R.; Sweet, W.V.; Tipton, K.; Weaver, C. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Cold weather and the potential range of invasive Burmese pythons - Avery, Michael L.; Engeman, Richard M.; Keacher, Kandy L.; Humphrey, John S.; Bruce, William E.; Mathies, Tom C.; Mauldin, Richard E. (Biological Invasions, 2010)
The Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus) is established in Everglades National Park and neighboring areas in south Florida. Beyond its substantial ecological impacts to native fauna in south Florida, concerns have been raised as to its potential to occupy other parts of the USA, even as far north as Washington, DC. During a recent period of cold weather, seven of nine captive Burmese pythons held in outdoor pens at our facility in north-central Florida died, or would have died absent our intervention. This cold-induced mortality occurred despite the presence of refugia with heat sources. Our findings cast doubt on the ability of free-ranging Burmese pythons to establish and persist beyond the subtropical environment of south Florida.

Building a Resilient Energy Gulf Coast: Executive Report - AWF; AEC; Entergy (America’s Wetlands Foundation (AWF) and America’s Energy Coast (AEC) and Entergy, 2010)

Buried No Longer: Confronting America’s Water Infrastructure Challenge - AWWA (American Water Works Association, 2012)

Comparison of CMIP3 and CMIP5 projected hydrologic conditions over the upper Colorado River basin - Ayers, Jessica; Ficklin, Darren L.; Stewart, Iris T.; Strunk, Meredith (International Journal of Climatology, 2016)
Keywords: CMIP3 CMIP5 SWAT Colorado River snowmelt climate change

Institutionalizing the urban governance of climate change adaptation: Results of an international survey - Aylett, Alexander (Urban Climate, 2015)
Three hundred and fifty municipalities across five continents participated in the Urban Climate Change Governance Survey (UCGS). Conducted at MIT in partnership with ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, the UCGS provides a first of its kind look at the governance networks that municipalities are creating to address climate change. Drawing from these results, this paper analyses the institutional governance structures that surround local government work on climate change adaptation. Results show an integration of adaptation and mitigation planning, and a mainstreaming of adaptation planning into other long-range and sectoral plans. Seventy-three percent of respondents stated that their local government’s are engaging with both adaptation and mitigation, and 75% are integrating adaptation into long-range or sectoral plans. However, many critical municipal agencies – including those responsible for water, waste water, health, and building codes – remain on the margins of urban adaptation efforts. Internal institutional networks of governance are inextricably linked to efforts to address a problem like adaptation, which does not fit neatly into individual institutional silos. The results of the UCGS show where these networks have so far been made, how they have been created, and which local government actors have yet to be effectively engaged.
Keywords: Cities Adaptation Governance Local government Climate change

Disturbance regimes and stressors - Ayres, Matthew P.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Kerns, Becky K.; McKenzie, Don; Littell, Jeremy S.; Band, Lawrence E.; Luce, Charles H.; Weed, Aaron S.; Raymond, Crystal L. (Climate Change and United States Forests, 2014)
The effects of climate change on insect outbreaks, wildfire, invasive species, and pathogens in forest ecosystems will greatly exceed the effects of warmer temperature on gradual changes in forest processes. Increased frequency and extent of these disturbances will lead to rapid changes in vegetation age and structure, plant species composition, productivity, carbon storage, and water yield. Insect outbreaks are the most pervasive forest disturbance in the United States, and rapid spread of bark beetles in the western United States has been attributed to a recent increase in temperature. Wildfire area burned has increased in recent decades, although frequency and severity have not changed, and is expected to greatly increase by 2050 (at least twice as much area burned annually in the West). More frequent occurrence of fire and insects will create landscapes in which regeneration of vegetation will occur in a warmer environment, possibly with new species assemblages, younger age classes, and altered forest structure. Increased fire and insects may in turn cause more erosion and landslides. Invasive plant species are already a component of all forest ecosystems, and a warmer climate will likely facilitate the spread of current and new invasives, particularly annuals that compete effectively in an environment with higher temperature and frequent disturbance. The interaction of multiple disturbances and stressors, or stress complexes, has the potential to alter the structure and function of forest ecosystems, especially when considered in the context of human land-use change. Occurring across large landscapes over time, these stress complexes will have mostly negative effects on ecosystem services, requiring costly responses to mitigate them and active management of forest ecosystems to enhance resilience.

Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens - Ayres, Matthew P.; Lombardero, Marı́a J. (Science of the Total Environment, 2000)
Keywords: Climate change Herbivory Pathogens Forest epidemiology Risk assessment Disturbance

Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics - Ayyub, Bilal M. (Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2014)

Practical resilience metrics for planning, design, and decision making - Ayyub, Bilal M. (ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 2015)

Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences - Ayyub, Bilal M.; Klir, George J. (Chapman Hall/CRC, 2006)

Adaptive climate risk control of sustainability and resilience for infrastructure systems - Ayyub, Bilal M.; Wright, Richard N. (Journal of Geography & Natural Disasters, 2016)

Resilience of infrastructure systems to sea-level rise in coastal areas: Impacts, adaptation measures, and implementation challenges - Azevedo de Almeida, Beatriz; Mostafavi, Ali (Sustainability, 2016)

Contaminated water as a source of Helicobacter pylori infection: A review - Aziz, Ramy K.; Khalifa, Mohammed M.; Sharaf, Radwa R. (Journal of Advanced Research, 2015)
Keywords: Epidemiology Infectious diseases Climate change Water crisis

A 10-Year Projection of Maritime Activity in the U.S. Arctic Region - Azzara, Alyson J.; Wang, Haifeng; Rutherford, Daniel (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2015)

The Fruit Rots of Pumpkin - Babadoost, Mohammad (University of Illinois Extension, 2012)

Impacts of climate change on animal production and quality of animal food products - Babinszky, László; Halas, Veronika; Verstegen, Martin W. A. (Climate Change—Socioeconomic Effects, 2011)

During Drought, Once-Mighty Texas Rice Belt Fades Away - Baddour, Dylan (StateImpact Texax, 2014)
Keywords: local public radio stations KUT Austin and KUHF Houston

Responses of spring phenology to climate change - Badeck, Franz- W.; Bondeau, Alberte; Böttcher, Kristin; Doktor, Daniel; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaber, Jörg; Sitch, Stephen (New Phytologist, 2004)

The transportation impacts of—and response to—the SR-530 landslide disaster (Snohomish County, Washington State) - Badger, Tom; Kramer, Casey; Antapasis, John; Cotten, Mike (TR News, 2015)

Plant Breeding and Genetics. A Paper in the Series on The Need for Agricultural Innovation to Sustainably Feed the World by 2050 - Baenziger, P. Stephen; Mumm, Rita; Bernardo, Rex; Brummer, E. Charles; Langridge, Peter; Simon, Philipp; Smith, Stephen (Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST), 2017)

Multiplex social ecological network analysis reveals how social changes affect community robustness more than resource depletion - Baggio, Jacopo A.; BurnSilver, Shauna B.; Arenas, Alex; Magdanz, James S.; Kofinas, Gary P.; De Domenico, Manlio (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)

Relative sensitivity of five Hawaiian coral species to high temperature under high-pCO2 conditions - Bahr, Keisha D.; Jokiel, Paul L.; Rodgers, Ku’ulei S. (Coral Reefs, 2016)
Coral reef ecosystems are presently undergoing decline due to anthropogenic climate change. The chief detrimental factors are increased temperature and increased pCO2. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of these two stressors operating independently and in unison on the biological response of common Hawaiian reef corals. Manipulative experiments were performed using five species (Porites compressa, Pocillopora damicornis, Fungia scutaria, Montipora capitata, and Leptastrea purpurea) in a continuous-flow mesocosm system under natural sunlight conditions. Corals were grown together as a community under treatments of high temperature (2 °C above normal maximum summer temperature), high pCO2 (twice present-day conditions), and with both factors acting in unison. Control corals were grown under present-day pCO2 and at normal summer temperatures. Leptastrea purpurea proved to be an extremely hardy coral. No change in calcification or mortality occurred under treatments of high temperature, high pCO2, or combined high temperature–high pCO2. The remaining four species showed reduced calcification in the high-temperature treatment. Two species (L. purpurea and M. capitata) showed no response to increased pCO2. Also, high pCO2 ameliorated the negative effect of high temperature on the calcification rates of P. damicornis. Mortality was driven primarily by high temperature, with a negative synergistic effect in P. compressa only in the high-pCO2–high-temperature treatment. Results support the observation that biological response to temperature and pCO2 elevation is highly species-specific, so generalizations based on response of a single species might not apply to a diverse and complex coral reef community.

Predicting future groundwater resources of coral atoll islands - Bailey, Ryan T.; Barnes, Kaitlyn; Wallace, Corey D. (Hydrological Processes, 2016)
Fresh groundwater reserves on small coral islands are under continual threat of salinization and contamination because of droughts, storm-surge overwash events, over-extraction, island community urbanization, and sea level rise. Whereas storm-surge overwash events can cause sudden groundwater salinization, long-term changes in rainfall patterns and sea level elevation have the potential of rendering these islands uninhabitable in the coming decades. This study demonstrates the use of a tested freshwater lens thickness simulator to estimate the groundwater resources of a set of atoll islands in the coming decades. The method uses ranges of projected rates of annual rainfall and sea level rise (SLR) to provide a range of probable lens thickness for each island. Projected rainfall is provided by General Circulation Models that accurately replicate the historical rainfall patterns in the geographic region of the islands. Methodology is applied to 68 atoll islands in the Federated States of Micronesia. These islands have widths that range between 150 and 1000 m, and experience annual rainfall rates of between 2.8 and 4.8 m. Results indicate that under average conditions of SLR, beach slope, and rainfall, almost half of the island will experience a 20% decrease in lens thickness by the year 2050. For worst-case scenarios (high SLR, low rainfall), average decrease in lens thickness is 55%, with almost half of the islands experiencing a decrease of greater than 75% and half of the islands having a lens thickness less than 1.0 m. Small islands (widths less than 400 m) are particularly vulnerable because of shoreline recession. Groundwater on islands in the western region is less vulnerable to SLR because of a projected increase in rainfall during the coming decades. Results indicate the vulnerability of small islands to changing climatic conditions, and can be used for water resources management and community planning. Methodology can be applied to any group of islands as a first approximation of the effect of future climate conditions on groundwater resources. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Keywords: groundwater atolls sea level rise

Structural racism and health inequities in the USA: Evidence and interventions - Bailey, Zinzi D.; Krieger, Nancy; Agénor, Madina; Graves, Jasmine; Linos, Natalia; Bassett, Mary T. (The Lancet, 2017)

Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook - Baker, Andrew C.; Glynn, Peter W.; Riegl, Bernhard (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2008)
Keywords: coral bleaching reefs zooxanthellae stress global warming conservation prediction forecast ecosystem recovery community

Contribution of regional-scale fire events to ozone and PM2.5 air quality estimated by photochemical modeling approaches - Baker, K. R.; Woody, M. C.; Tonnesen, G. S.; Hutzell, W.; Pye, H. O. T.; Beaver, M. R.; Pouliot, G.; Pierce, T. (Atmospheric Environment, 2016)
Keywords: Wild fire Prescribed fire Photochemical model Ozone Particulate matter

Reimaanlok: A national framework for conservation area planning in the Marshall Islands - Baker, Nicole; Beger, Maria; McClennen, Caleb; Ishoda, Albon; Edwards, Florence (Journal of Marine Biology, 2011)
The development of Reimaanlok, a national framework for the planning and establishment of community-based conservation areas in the Marshall Islands, is outlined. A team composed of international experts and local resource management professionals selected and modified an ecoregional planning approach, defined key concepts, selected conservation features and targets, compiled biogeographical information from scientific and local knowledge and carried out a national-level ecological gap assessment. Past development of community-based fisheries and conservation plans was reviewed and the lessons learned informed the development of a robust community-based planning process for the design and establishment of conservation areas on individual atolls, integrating ecosystem based management (EBM) theory, traditional knowledge and management, and the particular socio-economic needs of island communities. While specific geographic, historical, cultural and economic characteristics of the Marshall Islands have created a framework that is unique, several aspects of this process offer ideas for national strategic conservation planning in other Small Island Developing States where there is a paucity of scientific data, significant and increasing threats, and where decision-making about the use of natural resources occurs primarily at the local level.

Non-cholera vibrios: The microbial barometer of climate change - Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin; Gonzalez-Escalona, Narjol; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime (Trends in Microbiology, 2017)
Keywords: climate change heatwave infectious diseases

Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting - Bakker, P.; Schmittner, A.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Abe‐Ouchi, A.; Bi, D.; Broeke, M. R.; Chan, W. ‐L; Hu, A.; Beadling, R. L.; Marsland, S. J.; Mernild, S. H.; Saenko, O. A.; et al. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state?of?the?science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090?2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [?3%, ?34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse?gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [?15%, ?65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to ?74% [+4%, ?100%] by 2290?2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.
Keywords: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation climate change general circulation model

Anticipated effects of climate change on coastal upwelling ecosystems - Bakun, A.; Black, B. A.; Bograd, S. J.; García-Reyes, M.; Miller, A. J.; Rykaczewski, R. R.; Sydeman, W. J. (Current Climate Change Reports, 2015)
Ecosystem productivity in coastal ocean upwelling systems is threatened by climate change. Increases in spring and summer upwelling intensity, and associated increases in the rate of offshore advection, are expected. While this could counter effects of habitat warming, it could also lead to more frequent hypoxic events and lower densities of suitable-sized food particles for fish larvae. With upwelling intensification, ocean acidity will rise, affecting organisms with carbonate structures. Regardless of changes in upwelling, near-surface stratification, turbulent diffusion rates, source water origins, and perhaps thermocline depths associated with large-scale climate episodes (ENSO) maybe affected. Major impacts on pelagic fish resources appear unlikely unless couples with overfishing, although changes toward more subtropical community composition are likely. Marine mammals and seabirds that are tied to sparsely distributed nesting or resting grounds could experience difficulties in obtaining prey resources, or adaptively respond by moving to more favorable biogeographic provinces.

Precision agriculture technologies positively contributing to GHG emissions mitigation, farm productivity and economics - Balafoutis, Athanasios; Beck, Bert; Fountas, Spyros; Vangeyte, Jurgen; Wal, Tamme; Soto, Iria; Gómez-Barbero, Manuel; Barnes, Andrew; Eory, Vera (Sustainability, 2017)

Ch. 1: Introduction: Climate change and human health - Balbus, John; Crimmins, Allison; Gamble, Janet L.; Easterling, David R.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Saha, Shubhayu; Sarofim, Marcus C. (The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, 2016)

A wedge-based approach to estimating health co-benefits of climate change mitigation activities in the United States - Balbus, John M.; Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Chari, Ramya; Millstein, Dev; Ebi, Kristie L. (Climatic Change, 2014)
While it has been recognized that actions reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can have significant positive and negative impacts on human health through reductions in ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations, these impacts are rarely taken into account when analyzing specific policies. This study presents a new framework for estimating the change in health outcomes resulting from implementation of specific carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction activities, allowing comparison of different sectors and options for climate mitigation activities. Our estimates suggest that in the year 2020, the reductions in adverse health outcomes from lessened exposure to PM2.5 would yield economic benefits in the range of $6 to $30 billion (in 2008 USD), depending on the specific activity. This equates to between $40 and $198 per metric ton of CO2 in health benefits. Specific climate interventions will vary in the health co-benefits they provide as well as in potential harms that may result from their implementation. Rigorous assessment of these health impacts is essential for guiding policy decisions as efforts to reduce GHG emissions increase in scope and intensity.

Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States - Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J.; Mahood, Adam L. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal “fire niche” in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2, the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2, primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards.

Introduced annual grass increases regional fire activity across the arid western USA (1980–2009) - Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Gómez-Dans, José (Global Change Biology, 2013)
Keywords: Bromus tectorum exotic grasses fire frequency grass-fire cycle invasive species MODIS burned-area product satellite-based fire data

Global food security in 2050: The role of agricultural productivity and climate change - Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W. (Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2014)
In this paper, we examine how the complexities introduced by trends in agricultural productivity and climate change affect the future of global food security. We use a partial equilibrium model of global agriculture incorporating a food security module that links changes in the average dietary energy intake to shifts in the full caloric distribution, allowing us to compute changes in the incidence, headcount and average depth of malnutrition. After validating the model against an historical period, we implement a series of future scenarios to understand the impacts of key exogenous drivers on selected food security outcomes. Our results show improvements in global food security for the period 2006–2050. Despite growing population and increased biofuel demand, baseline income growth, coupled with projected increases in agricultural productivity lead to a 24 per cent rise in global average dietary energy intake. Consequently, the incidence of malnutrition falls by 84 per cent, lifting more than half a billion people out of extreme hunger. However, these results hinge heavily on agricultural productivity growth. Without such growth, there could be a substantial setback on food security improvements. Climate change adds uncertainty to these projections, depending critically on the crop yield impacts of increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

What About the People? The Socially Sustainable, Resilient Community and Urban Development - Baldwin, Cathy; King, Robin (Oxford Brookes University, 2017)
Keywords: added by ERG

Forest Economy Wisconsin - Ballweg, Julie (Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, 2016)

Egg deposition by Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia: Substrate utilization and comparison of natural and altered shoreline type - Balouskus, Richard G.; Targett, Timothy E. (Estuaries and Coasts, 2012)
Egg deposition by the intertidal spawning fish Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia) was compared among six shoreline types (Spartina alterniflora, Phragmites australis, sandy beach, riprap, riprap-sill, and bulkhead) and various substrates. In spring 2010, M. menidia egg density was measured daily near Roosevelt Inlet, Delaware Bay, USA. Over 3,000,000 eggs were collected during 50 sampling days. Eggs were deposited at all six shoreline types, with >93 % of eggs collected from S. alterniflora shorelines. Choice of substrate for egg attachment was similar across shoreline types with >91 % of eggs collected from filaments of the green alga Enteromorpha spp., a disproportionately high utilization rate in comparison with Enteromorpha spp.'s relative coverage. This study demonstrates that S. alterniflora shoreline, in association with Enteromorpha spp., is the preferred spawning habitat for M. menidia and that hardened shorelines and shorelines inhabited by P. australis support substantially reduced egg densities.

An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets - Bamber, J. L.; Aspinall, W. P. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

Selected Reportable Communicable Disease Summary - Bancroft, June; Byster, Leslie (Oregon Health Authority, 2017)

Disaster impact on impoverished area of US: An inter-professional mixed method study - Banks, Linda H.; Davenport, Lisa A.; Hayes, Meghan H.; McArthur, Moriah A.; Toro, Stacey N.; King, Cameron E.; Vazirani, Hazel M. (Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 2016)
Introduction In the foothills of the Cumberland Mountains, in central Appalachia (a region that spans 13 states in the US), sits an economically distressed and rural community of the United States. Once a thriving coal-mining area, this region now is reported as one of the hardest places to live in the US. Southeastern Kentucky, located in a remote, rocky, mountainous area surrounded by rivers and valleys and prone to flooding, experienced a major flood in Spring 2013 causing significant damage to homes and critical infrastructure. Purpose Aims of the study were to: (1) identify and better understand the contextual variables compounding the impact of a disaster event that occurred in Spring 2013; (2) identify ways participants managed antecedent circumstances, risk, and protective factors to cope with disaster up to 12 months post-event; and (3) further determine implications for community-focused interventions that may enhance recovery for vulnerable populations to promote greater outcomes of adaptation, wellness, and readiness. Methods Using an ethnographic mixed-methods approach, an inter-collaborative team conducted face-to-face interviews with (N=12) Appalachian residents about their disaster experience, documented observations and visual assessment of need on an observation tool, and used photography depicting structural and environmental conditions. A Health and Emergency Preparedness Assessment Survey Tool was used to collect demographic, health, housing, environment, and disaster readiness assessment data. Community stakeholders facilitated purposeful sampling through coordination of scheduled home visits. Results Triangulation of all data sources provided evidence that the community had unique coping strategies related to faith and spirituality, cultural values and heritage, and social support to manage antecedent circumstances, risk, and protective factors during times of adversity that, in turn, enhanced resilience up to 12 months post-disaster. The community was found to have an innate capacity to persevere and utilize resources to manage and transcend adversity and restore equilibrium, which reflected components of resilience that deserve greater recognition and appreciation. Conclusion Resilience is a foundational concept for disaster science. A model of resilience for the rural Appalachia community was developed to visually depict the encompassing element of community-based interventions that may enhance coping strategies, mitigate risk factors, integrate protective factors, and strengthen access. Community-based interventions are recommended to strengthen resilience, yielding improved outcomes of adaptation, health and wellness, and disaster readiness. Banks LH , Davenport LA , Hayes MH , McArthur MA , Toro SN , King CE , Vazirani HM . Disaster Impact on Impoverished Area of US: An Inter-Professional Mixed Method Study. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(6):583–592.
Keywords: disaster flooding resilience rural Appalachia vulnerability

Climate change impacts on Texas water: A white paper assessment of the past, present and future and recommendations for action - Banner, Jay L.; Jackson, Charles S.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Hayhoe, Katharine; Woodhouse, Connie; Gulden, Lindsey; Jacobs, Kathy; North, Gerald; Leung, Ruby; Washington, Warren; Jiang, Xiaoyan; Castell, Richard (Texas Water Journal, 2010)

Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries - Barange, M.; Merino, G.; Blanchard, J. L.; Scholtens, J.; Harle, J.; Allison, E. H.; Allen, J. I.; Holt, J.; Jennings, S. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

Assessment of the Pacific cod stock in the Gulf of Alaska - Barbeaux, Steven; Aydin, Kerim; Fissel, Ben; Holsman, Krirstin; Palsson, Wwyne; Shotwell, Kalei; Yang, Qiong; Zador, Stephani (NPFMC Gulf of Alaska SAFE (Stock Assessment and Fishery Evaluation) [council draft], 2017)

Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States - Barbero, R.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; Larkin, N.K.; Kolden, C.A.; Stocks, B. (International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2015)

Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing - Barbero, R.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Steel, E. A.; Larkin, Narasimhan K. (Environmental Research Letters, 2014)
Very large-fires (VLFs) have widespread impacts on ecosystems, air quality, fire suppression resources, and in many regions account for a majority of total area burned. Empirical generalized linear models of the largest fires (>5000 ha) across the contiguous United States (US) were developed at ∼60 km spatial and weekly temporal resolutions using solely atmospheric predictors. Climate−fire relationships on interannual timescales were evident, with wetter conditions than normal in the previous growing season enhancing VLFs probability in rangeland systems and with concurrent long-term drought enhancing VLFs probability in forested systems. Information at sub-seasonal timescales further refined these relationships, with short-term fire weather being a significant predictor in rangelands and fire danger indices linked to dead fuel moisture being a significant predictor in forested lands. Models demonstrated agreement in capturing the observed spatial and temporal variability including the interannual variability of VLF occurrences within most ecoregions. Furthermore the model captured the observed increase in VLF occurrences across parts of the southwestern and southeastern US from 1984 to 2010 suggesting that, irrespective of changes in fuels and land management, climatic factors have become more favorable for VLF occurrence over the past three decades in some regions. Our modeling framework provides a basis for simulations of future VLF occurrences from climate projections.

Progress and challenges in valuing coastal and marine ecosystem services - Barbier, Edward B. (Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2012)
Coastal and marine ecosystems (CMEs) generate some of the most important services to humankind, but they are endangered from overexploitation and loss. The widespread decline in CME services suggests that it is important to understand what is at stake in terms of the critical benefits and values of these services. This article examines how environmental and resource economics has contributed to our knowledge of CME services and discusses progress as well as challenges in valuing these services. The article highlights case studies in which the economic valuation of key CME services has influenced policy decisions concerning the management of CMEs. Two key features of CME benefits are also examined. First, the natural spatial variability in these systems can influence the economic value of CME services. Second, because they occur at the interface between watersheds, the coast, and open water, CMEs can produce cumulative and synergistic benefits across the entire seascape that are much more significant and unique than the services provided by any single ecosystem.
10.1093/reep/rer017

A global strategy for protecting vulnerable coastal populations - Barbier, Edward B. (Science, 2014)

The value of wetlands in protecting southeast Louisiana from hurricane storm surges - Barbier, Edward B.; Georgiou, Ioannis Y.; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J. (PLOS ONE, 2013)
The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services - Barbier, Edward B.; Hacker, Sally D.; Kennedy, Chris; Koch, Evamaria W.; Stier, Adrian C.; Silliman, Brian R. (Ecological Monographs, 2011)

Coastal ecosystem-based management with nonlinear ecological functions and values - Barbier, Edward B.; Koch, Evamaria W.; Silliman, Brian R.; Hacker, Sally D.; Wolanski, Eric; Primavera, Jurgenne; Granek, Elise F.; Polasky, Stephen; Aswani, Shankar; Cramer, Lori A.; Stoms, David M.; Kennedy, Chris J.; et al. (Science, 2008)
A common assumption is that ecosystem services respond linearly to changes in habitat size. This assumption leads frequently to an “all or none” choice of either preserving coastal habitats or converting them to human use. However, our survey of wave attenuation data from field studies of mangroves, salt marshes, seagrass beds, nearshore coral reefs, and sand dunes reveals that these relationships are rarely linear. By incorporating nonlinear wave attenuation in estimating coastal protection values of mangroves in Thailand, we show that the optimal land use option may instead be the integration of development and conservation consistent with ecosystem-based management goals. This result suggests that reconciling competing demands on coastal habitats should not always result in stark preservation-versus-conversion choices.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/319/5861/321.full.pdf

A retrospective analysis of benefits and impacts of U.S. renewable portfolio standards - Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Heeter, Jenny; Mai, Trieu; Bird, Lori; Bolinger, Mark; Carpenter, Alberta; Heath, Garvin; Keyser, David; Macknick, Jordan; Mills, Andrew; Millstein, Dev (Energy Policy, 2016)
Keywords: Renewable energy RPS Renewable portfolio standard Greenhouse gas, air pollution, water use

U.S. Renewables Portfolio Standards 2016 Annual Status Report - Barbose, Galen L. (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2016)

Tracking the Sun IX: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States - Barbose, Galen L.; Darghouth, Naïm R. (Berkeley Lab, 2016)

Climate Change Adaptation in Great Lakes Cities - Barclay, Pamela; Bastoni, Cara; Eisenhauer, David; Hassan, Masooma; Lopez, Melody; Mekias, Leila; Ramachandran, Sundeep; Stock, Ryan (Natural Resources and Environment, 2013)

Caribbean agriculture in a period of global change: Vulnerabilities and opportunities - Barker, David (Caribbean Studies, 2012)

2012 Demographic State of the State Report: Oklahoma State and County Population Projections Through 2075 - Barker, Steve (Oklahoma Department of Commerce, 2012)

Mechanisms and thresholds for pH tolerance in Palau corals - Barkley, Hannah C.; Cohen, Anne L.; McCorkle, Daniel C.; Golbuu, Yimnang (Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 2017)
In Palau, calcification rates of two reef-building coral genera (Porites and Favia) are maintained across a strong natural gradient in aragonite saturation state (Ωar) ranging from 3.7 to 2.3. This observation contrasts the strong sensitivity to decreasing Ωar that these genera demonstrate in both laboratory CO2 manipulation experiments and in field studies. Moreover, in contrast to other naturally more acidic coral reefs, benthic communities in Palau's low-Ωar (Ωar = 2.3) Rock Island reefs display ecological indices consistent with healthy communities. A laboratory CO2 manipulation experiment and a field-based reciprocal transplant were used to investigate whether the apparent lack of sensitivity to ocean acidification of Palau's Porites corals can be attributed to local adaptation to chronic acidification or to environmental factors that allow corals to thrive despite extreme pH conditions. In a two-month laboratory incubation, calcification rates of Palau Porites from both environments were insensitive to changes in Ωar over the range 1.5 to 3.0, suggestive of an adaptive, rather than environmental, mechanism for acidification tolerance. However, in the reciprocal transplant, corals transplanted between reefs at different ambient Ωar levels showed significant declines in calcification rates and high mortality, while corals returned back to their reef of origin were alive after 17 months in the field. Interpreted within the framework of the experimental result, the failure of pH/Ωar-tolerant corals to successfully transplant between different reef sites hints at local adaptation to other (non-pH) environmental factors such as light, temperature, and/or flow that co-vary with Ωar across Palau's natural acidification gradient.
Keywords: Adaptation Palau Ocean acidification Calcification Corals Reciprocal transplant

Extreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015–2016 El Niño - Barnard, Patrick L.; Hoover, Daniel; Hubbard, David M.; Snyder, Alex; Ludka, Bonnie C.; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George M.; Ruggiero, Peter; Gallien, Timu W.; Gabel, Laura; McCandless, Diana; Weiner, Heather M.; et al. (Nature Communications, 2017)

Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation - Barnard, Patrick L.; Short, Andrew D.; Harley, Mitchell D.; Splinter, Kristen D.; Vitousek, Sean; Turner, Ian L.; Allan, Jonathan; Banno, Masayuki; Bryan, Karin R.; Doria, Andre; Hansen, Jeff E.; Kato, Shigeru; et al. (Nature Geoscience, 2015)
To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Nino/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Nino and La Nina events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.

Radiative forcing over the conterminous United States due to contemporary land cover land use albedo change - Barnes, Christopher A.; Roy, David P. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2008)
Keywords: land cover land use albedo change radiative forcing United States 1637 Regional climate change 1632 Land cover change 1640 Remote sensing

Response of the midlatitude jets, and of their variability, to increased greenhouse gases in the CMIP5 models - Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Polvani, Lorenzo (Journal of Climate, 2013)
This work documents how the midlatitude, eddy-driven jets respond to climate change using model output from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The authors consider separately the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere jets. The analysis is not limited to annual-mean changes in the latitude and speed of the jets, but also explores how the variability of each jet changes with increased greenhouse gases.All jets are found to migrate poleward with climate change: the Southern Hemisphere jet shifts poleward by 2° of latitude between the historical period and the end of the twenty-first century in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, whereas both Northern Hemisphere jets shift by only 1°. In addition, the speed of the Southern Hemisphere jet is found to increase markedly (by 1.2 m s−1 between 850 and 700 hPa), while the speed remains nearly constant for both jets in the Northern Hemisphere.More importantly, it is found that the patterns of jet variability are a strong function of the jet position in all three sectors of the globe, and as the jets shift poleward the patterns of variability change. Specifically, for the Southern Hemisphere and the North Atlantic jets, the variability becomes less of a north–south wobbling and more of a pulsing (i.e., variation in jet speed). In contrast, for the North Pacific jet, the variability becomes less of a pulsing and more of a north–south wobbling. These different responses can be understood in terms of Rossby wave breaking, allowing the authors to explain most of the projected jet changes within a single dynamical framework.
Keywords: Annular mode,Rossby waves,Climate variability,Climate models,North Atlantic Oscillation,Trends

CMIP5 projections of arctic amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic circulation, and of their relationship - Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Polvani, Lorenzo M. (Journal of Climate, 2015)
Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of the Arctic region compared to the rest of the globe, will cause changes in midlatitude weather over the twenty-first century. This study exploits the recently completed phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examines 27 state-of-the-art climate models to determine if their projected changes in the midlatitude circulation are consistent with the hypothesized impact of Arctic amplification over North America and the North Atlantic.Under the largest future greenhouse forcing (RCP8.5), it is found that every model, in every season, exhibits Arctic amplification by 2100. At the same time, the projected circulation responses are either opposite in sign to those hypothesized or too widely spread among the models to discern any robust change. However, in a few seasons and for some of the circulation metrics examined, correlations are found between the model spread in Arctic amplification and the model spread in the projected circulation changes. Therefore, while the CMIP5 models offer some evidence that future Arctic warming may be able to modulate some aspects of the midlatitude circulation response in some seasons, the analysis herein leads to the conclusion that the net circulation response in the future is unlikely to be determined solely—or even primarily—by Arctic warming according to the sequence of events recently hypothesized.
Keywords: Atmospheric circulation,Blocking,Jets,Climate change,Climate models,Climate variability

Transit systems and ridership under extreme weather and climate change stress: An urban transportation agenda for hazards geography - Barnes, Mark (Geography Compass, 2015)

Dangerous climate change in the Pacific Islands: Food production and food security - Barnett, J. (Regional Environmental Change, 2011)
Keywords: Small Islands Agriculture Fisheries Development Vulnerability CORAL-REEFS ADAPTATION IMPACTS POLICY OCEAN FISH Environmental Sciences Environmental Studies Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Climate dangers and atoll countries - Barnett, Jon; Adger, W. Neil (Climatic Change, 2003)

Climate change, human security and violent conflict - Barnett, Jon; Adger, W. Neil (Political Geography, 2007)
Climate change is increasingly been called a ‘security’ problem, and there has been speculation that climate change may increase the risk of violent conflict. This paper integrates three disparate but well-founded bodies of research – on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, on livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development and peacemaking, to offer new insights into the relationships between climate change, human security, and violent conflict. It explains that climate change increasingly undermines human security in the present day, and will increasingly do so in the future, by reducing access to, and the quality of, natural resources that are important to sustain livelihoods. Climate change is also likely to undermine the capacity of states to provide the opportunities and services that help people to sustain their livelihoods. We argue that in certain circumstances these direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human security may in turn increase the risk of violent conflict. The paper then outlines the broad contours of a research programme to guide empirical investigations into the risks climate change poses to human security and peace.
Keywords: climate change Human security state functions Violent conflict

Conclusions on resilience to climate variability in Pacific Island countries - Barnett, Jon; Busse, Mark; Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research (Proceedings of the APN Workshop on Ethnographic Perspectives on Resilience to Climate Variability in Pacific Island Countries, Apia, Samoa, December 2001, 2002)

Islands, resettlement and adaptation - Barnett, Jon; O'Neill, Saffron J. (Nature Climate Change, 2012)
Resettlement of people living on islands in anticipation of climate impacts risks maladaptation, but some forms of population movement carry fewer risks and larger rewards in terms of adapting to climate change.
Keywords: Climate-change adaptation Climate-change impacts

Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States - Barnett, T.P.; Pierce, D.W.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Bonfils, C.; Santer, B.D.; Das, T.; Bala, G.; Wood, A.W.; Nozawa, T.; Mirin, A. A.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D. (Science, 2008)
Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high- resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate- related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human- induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.
Keywords: north-america; climate-change; trends; model; attribution; streamflow; snowpack; cycle

The effect of changing sea ice on the physical vulnerability of Arctic coasts - Barnhart, K. R.; Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S. (The Cryosphere, 2014)
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Snowmelt rate dictates streamflow - Barnhart, Theodore B.; Molotch, Noah P.; Livneh, Ben; Harpold, Adrian A.; Knowles, John F.; Schneider, Dominik (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Declining mountain snowpack and earlier snowmelt across the western United States has implications for downstream communities. We present a possible mechanism linking snowmelt rate and streamflow generation using a gridded implementation of the Budyko framework. We computed an ensemble of Budyko streamflow anomalies (BSAs) using Variable Infiltration Capacity model-simulated evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, and estimated precipitation at 1/16° resolution from 1950 to 2013. BSA was correlated with simulated baseflow efficiency (r2 = 0.64) and simulated snowmelt rate (r2 = 0.42). The strong correlation between snowmelt rate and baseflow efficiency (r2 = 0.73) links these relationships and supports a possible streamflow generation mechanism wherein greater snowmelt rates increase subsurface flow. Rapid snowmelt may thus bring the soil to field capacity, facilitating below-root zone percolation, streamflow, and a positive BSA. Previous works have shown that future increases in regional air temperature may lead to earlier, slower snowmelt and hence decreased streamflow production via the mechanism proposed by this work.

Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems - Barnosky, Anthony D.; Hadly, Elizabeth A.; Gonzalez, Patrick; Head, Jason; Polly, P. David; Lawing, A. Michelle; Eronen, Jussi T.; Ackerly, David D.; Alex, Ken; Biber, Eric; Blois, Jessica; Brashares, Justin; et al. (Science, 2017)
The current impacts of humanity on nature are rapid and destructive, but species turnover and change have occurred throughout the history of life. Although there is much debate about the best approaches to take in conservation, ultimately, we need to permit or enhance the resilience of natural systems so that they can continue to adapt and function into the future. In a Review, Barnosky et al. argue that the best way to do this is to look back at paleontological history as a way to understand how ecological resilience is maintained, even in the face of change.Science, this issue p. eaah4787BACKGROUNDThe pace and magnitude of human-caused global change has accelerated dramatically over the past 50 years, overwhelming the capacity of many ecosystems and species to maintain themselves as they have under the more stable conditions that prevailed for at least 11,000 years. The next few decades threaten even more rapid transformations because by 2050, the human population is projected to grow by 3 billion while simultaneously increasing per capita consumption. Thus, to avoid losing many species and the crucial aspects of ecosystems that we need—for both our physical and emotional well-being—new conservation paradigms and integration of information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences are required.ADVANCESRather than attempting to hold ecosystems to an idealized conception of the past, as has been the prevailing conservation paradigm until recently, maintaining vibrant ecosystems for the future now requires new approaches that use both historical and novel conservation landscapes, enhance adaptive capacity for ecosystems and organisms, facilitate connectedness, and manage ecosystems for functional integrity rather than focusing entirely on particular species. Scientific breakthroughs needed to underpin such a paradigm shift are emerging at the intersection of ecology and paleobiology, revealing (i) which species and ecosystems will need human intervention to persist; (ii) how to foster population connectivity that anticipates rapidly changing climate and land use; (iii) functional attributes that characterize ecosystems through thousands to millions of years, irrespective of the species that are involved; and (iv) the range of compositional and functional variation that ecosystems have exhibited over their long histories. Such information is necessary for recognizing which current changes foretell transitions to less robust ecological states and which changes may signal benign ecosystem shifts that will cause no substantial loss of ecosystem function or services.Conservation success will also increasingly hinge on choosing among different, sometimes mutually exclusive approaches to best achieve three conceptually distinct goals: maximizing biodiversity, maximizing ecosystem services, and preserving wilderness. These goals vary in applicability depending on whether historical or novel ecosystems are the conservation target. Tradeoffs already occur—for example, managing to maximize certain ecosystem services upon which people depend (such as food production on farm or rangelands) versus maintaining healthy populations of vulnerable species (such as wolves, lions, or elephants). In the future, the choices will be starker, likely involving decisions such as which species are candidates for managed relocation and to which areas, and whether certain areas should be off limits for intensive management, even if it means losing some species that now live there. Developing the capacity to make those choices will require conservation in both historical and novel ecosystems and effective collaboration of scientists, governmental officials, nongovernmental organizations, the legal community, and other stakeholders.OUTLOOKConservation efforts are currently in a state of transition, with active debate about the relative importance of preserving historical landscapes with minimal human impact on one end of the ideological spectrum versus manipulating novel ecosystems that result from human activities on the ther. Although the two approaches are often presented as dichotomous, in fact they are connected by a continuum of practices, and both are needed. In most landscapes, maximizing conservation success will require more integration of paleobiology and conservation biology because in a rapidly changing world, a long-term perspective (encompassing at least millennia) is necessary to specify and select appropriate conservation targets and plans. Although adding this long-term perspective will be essential to sustain biodiversity and all of the facets of nature that humans need as we continue to rapidly change the world over the next few decades, maximizing the chances of success will also require dealing with the root causes of the conservation crisis: rapid growth of the human population, increasing per capita consumption especially in developed countries, and anthropogenic climate change that is rapidly pushing habitats outside the bounds experienced by today’s species.Fewer than 900 mountain gorillas are left in the world, and their continued existence depends upon the choices humans make, exemplifying the state of many species and ecosystems.Can conservation biology save biodiversity and all the aspects of nature that people need and value as 3 billion more of us are added to the planet by 2050, while climate continues to change to states outside the bounds that most of today’s ecosystems have ever experienced?Photo: E. A. Hadly, at Volcanoes National Park, RwandaConservation of species and ecosystems is increasingly difficult because anthropogenic impacts are pervasive and accelerating. Under this rapid global change, maximizing conservation success requires a paradigm shift from maintaining ecosystems in idealized past states toward facilitating their adaptive and functional capacities, even as species ebb and flow individually. Developing effective strategies under this new paradigm will require deeper understanding of the long-term dynamics that govern ecosystem persistence and reconciliation of conflicts among approaches to conserving historical versus novel ecosystems. Integrating emerging information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences is an important step forward on the path to success. Maintaining nature in all its aspects will also entail immediately addressing the overarching threats of growing human population, overconsumption, pollution, and climate change.

The effects of climate change on cultural heritage in the polar regions - Barr, Susan (Heritage at Risk: ICOMOS World Report 2006/2007 on Monuments and Sites in Danger, 2008)

Physical, mental, and financial impacts from drought in two California counties, 2015 - Barreau, Tracy; Conway, David; Haught, Karen; Jackson, Rebecca; Kreutzer, Richard; Lockman, Andrew; Minnick, Sharon; Roisman, Rachel; Rozell, David; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Tafoya, Dana; Wilken, Jason A. (American Journal of Public Health, 2017)
Objectives. To evaluate health impacts of drought during the most severe drought in California’s recorded history with a rapid assessment method.Methods. We conducted Community Assessments for Public Health Emergency Response during October through November 2015 in Tulare County and Mariposa County to evaluate household water access, acute stressors, exacerbations of chronic diseases and behavioral health issues, and financial impacts. We evaluated pairwise associations by logistic regression with pooled data.Results. By assessment area, households reported not having running water (3%–12%); impacts on finances (25%–39%), property (39%–54%), health (10%–20%), and peace of mind (33%–61%); worsening of a chronic disease (16%–46%); acute stress (8%–26%); and considering moving (14%–34%). Impacts on finances or property were each associated with impacts on health and peace of mind, and acute stress.Conclusions. Drought-impacted households might perceive physical and mental health effects and might experience financial or property impacts related to the drought.Public Health Implications. Local jurisdictions should consider implementing drought assistance programs, including behavioral health, and consider rapid assessments to inform public health action.

Adapting to climate change: The remarkable decline in the US temperature-mortality relationship over the twentieth century - Barreca, Alan; Clay, Karen; Deschenes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael; Shapiro, Joseph S. (Journal of Political Economy, 2016)
This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 80°F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day–related fatalities. Third, using Dubin and McFadden’s discrete-continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be $85–$185 billion (2012 dollars).

Assessment of beach morphology at Puerto Rico Island - Barreto, Maritza; Narvaéz, Dariel; Marti, Laura; Díaz, Elizabeth; Santaella, Orlando; Cabrera, Nahir; Gladik, Tatiana; Alvira, Zulimar; Silva, Leticia; Reyes, Alejandro (University of Puerto Rico, Planning School, 2017)

Sensitivity to climate change for two reptiles at the Mojave–Sonoran Desert interface - Barrows, C. W. (Journal of Arid Environments, 2011)
Keywords: Chuckwalla Climate change Desert tortoise Joshua Tree National Park Mahalanobis Mojave Desert Niche modeling Sonoran Desert

Modeling impacts of climate change on Joshua trees at their southern boundary: How scale impacts predictions - Barrows, Cameron W.; Murphy-Mariscal, Michelle L. (Biological Conservation, 2012)
Keywords: Niche model Invasive species Joshua Tree National Park Mahalanobis D Scale

Seasonal variations in Greenland Ice Sheet motion: Inland extent and behaviour at higher elevations - Bartholomew, I. D.; Nienow, P.; Sole, A.; Mair, D.; Cowton, T.; King, M. A.; Palmer, S. (Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2011)
Keywords: Greenland GPS ice dynamics supraglacial lakes subglacial hydrology

Three Years Later, Kauai Tourism Still Feels the Effect of Iniki’s Blow - Bartlett, Tony (Travel Weekly, 1995)

Historical changes in northeastern US bee pollinators related to shared ecological traits - Bartomeus, I.; Ascher, J. S.; Gibbs, J.; Danforth, B. N.; Wagner, D. L.; Hedtke, S. M.; Winfree, R. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
Pollinators such as bees are essential to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. However, despite concerns about a global pollinator crisis, long-term data on the status of bee species are limited. We present a long-term study of relative rates of change for an entire regional bee fauna in the northeastern United States, based on >30,000 museum records representing 438 species. Over a 140-y period, aggregate native species richness weakly decreased, but richness declines were significant only for the genus Bombus. Of 187 native species analyzed individually, only three declined steeply, all of these in the genus Bombus. However, there were large shifts in community composition, as indicated by 56% of species showing significant changes in relative abundance over time. Traits associated with a declining relative abundance include small dietary and phenological breadth and large body size. In addition, species with lower latitudinal range boundaries are increasing in relative abundance, a finding that may represent a response to climate change. We show that despite marked increases in human population density and large changes in anthropogenic land use, aggregate native species richness declines were modest outside of the genus Bombus. At the same time, we find that certain ecological traits are associated with declines in relative abundance. These results should help target conservation efforts focused on maintaining native bee abundance and diversity and therefore the important ecosystems services that they provide.
Keywords: Adaptation, Physiological Animals Bees/ physiology Biodiversity Humans Pollination Population Dynamics United States

Climate-associated phenological advances in bee pollinators and bee-pollinated plants - Bartomeus, I.; Ascher, J.S.; Wagner, D.; Danforth, B.N.; Colla, S.; Kornbluth, S.; Winfree, R. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011)

The Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, shows negative correlation to naturally elevated carbon dioxide levels: Implications for near-term ocean acidification effects - Barton, A.; Hales, B.; Waldbusser, G.G.; Langdon, C.; Feely, R.A. (Limnology and Oceanography, 2012)

Impacts of coastal acidification on the Pacific Northwest shellfish industry and adaptation strategies implemented in response - Barton, Alan; Waldbusser, George G.; Feely, Richard A.; Weisberg, Stephen B.; Newton, Jan A.; Hales, Burke; Cudd, Sue; Eudeline, Benoit; Langdon, Chris J.; Jefferds, Ian; King, Teri; Suhrbier, Andy; et al. (Oceanography, 2015)

Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities - Barton, Andrew D.; Irwin, Andrew J.; Finkel, Zoe V.; Stock, Charles A. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Phytoplankton play essential roles in marine food webs and global biogeochemical cycles, yet the responses of individual species and entire phytoplankton communities to anthropogenic climate change in the coming century remain uncertain. Here we map the biogeographies of commonly observed North Atlantic phytoplankton and compare their historical (1951–2000) and projected future ranges (2051–2100). We find that individual species and entire communities move in space, or shift, and that communities internally reassemble, or shuffle. Over the coming century, most but not all studied species shift northeastward in the basin, moving at a rate faster than previously estimated. These pronounced ecological changes are driven by dynamic changes in ocean circulation and surface conditions, rather than just warming temperatures alone.Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951–2000) and future (2051–2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec−1), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec−1. The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States - Bartos, Matthew; Chester, Mikhail; Johnson, Nathan; Gorman, Brandon; Eisenberg, Daniel; Linkov, Igor; Bates, Matthew (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
Climate change may constrain future electricity supply adequacy by reducing electric transmission capacity and increasing electricity demand. The carrying capacity of electric power cables decreases as ambient air temperatures rise; similarly, during the summer peak period, electricity loads typically increase with hotter air temperatures due to increased air conditioning usage. As atmospheric carbon concentrations increase, higher ambient air temperatures may strain power infrastructure by simultaneously reducing transmission capacity and increasing peak electricity load. We estimate the impacts of rising ambient air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak per-capita electricity load for 121 planning areas in the United States using downscaled global climate model projections. Together, these planning areas account for roughly 80% of current peak summertime load. We estimate climate-attributable capacity reductions to transmission lines by constructing thermal models of representative conductors, then forcing these models with future temperature projections to determine the percent change in rated ampacity. Next, we assess the impact of climate change on electricity load by using historical relationships between ambient temperature and utility-scale summertime peak load to estimate the extent to which climate change will incur additional peak load increases. We find that by mid-century (2040–2060), increases in ambient air temperature may reduce average summertime transmission capacity by 1.9%–5.8% relative to the 1990–2010 reference period. At the same time, peak per-capita summertime loads may rise by 4.2%–15% on average due to increases in ambient air temperature. In the absence of energy efficiency gains, demand-side management programs and transmission infrastructure upgrades, these load increases have the potential to upset current assumptions about future electricity supply adequacy.

Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the western United States - Bartos, Matthew D.; Chester, Mikhail V. (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Evaluating phenological models for the prediction of leaf-out dates in six temperate tree species across central Europe - Basler, David (Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2016)
Keywords: Bud burst Chilling Temperature Spring phenology Process-based Photoperiod

Innovation and climate action planning - Bassett, Ellen; Shandas, Vivek (Journal of the American Planning Association, 2010)

Development of Statistical Methods to Estimate Baseline and Future Low-Flow Characteristics of Ungaged Streams in Hawai‘i - Bassiouni, Maoya (USGS Pacific Islands Water Science Center, 2016)

Trends and shifts in streamflow in Hawai‘i, 1913–2008 - Bassiouni, M.; Oki, D. S. (Hydrological Processes, 2013)

Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins - Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M.; Archfield, Stacey A. (Water Resources Research, 2016)
Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.
Keywords: Hawaii freshwater climate change water elasticity 1833 Hydroclimatology 1860 Streamflow 1874 Ungaged basins low flows panel regression regional hydrology

The future of agriculture over the Ogallala Aquifer: Solutions to grow crops more efficiently with limited water - Basso, Bruno; Kendall, Anthony D.; Hyndman, David W. (Earth's Future, 2013)
Keywords: Ogallala water sustainability crops 0402 Agricultural systems 0485 Science policy 1818 Evapotranspiration 1842 Irrigation 1829 Groundwater hydrology

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? - Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam; Baron, Christian; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Keywords: [CO2] AgMIP climate maize model intercomparison simulation temperature uncertainty

High ambient temperature and mortality: A review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008 - Basu, Rupa (Environmental Health, 2009)

Examining the association between apparent temperature and mental health-related emergency room visits in California - Basu, Rupa; Gavin, Lyndsay; Pearson, Dharshani; Ebisu, Keita; Malig, Brian (American Journal of Epidemiology, 2018)
The association between ambient temperature and morbidity has been explored previously. However, the association between temperature and mental health-related outcomes, including violence and self-harm, remains relatively unexamined. For the period 2005–2013, we obtained daily counts of mental health-related emergency room visits involving injuries with an external cause for 16 California climate zones from the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development and combined them with data on mean apparent temperature, a combination of temperature and humidity. Using Poisson regression models, we estimated climate zone-level associations and then used random-effects meta-analyses to produce overall estimates. Analyses were stratified by season (warm: May–October; cold: November–April), race/ethnicity, and age. During the warm season, a 10°F (5.6°C) increase in same-day mean apparent temperature was associated with 4.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.6, 6.0), 5.8% (95% CI: 4.5, 7.1), and 7.9% (95% CI: 7.3, 8.4) increases in the risk of emergency room visits for mental health disorders, self-injury/suicide, and intentional injury/homicide, respectively. High temperatures during the cold season were also positively associated with these outcomes. Variations were observed by race/ethnicity, age group, and sex, with Hispanics, whites, persons aged 6–18 years, and females being at greatest risk for most outcomes. Increasing mean apparent temperature was found to have acute associations with mental health outcomes and intentional injuries, and these findings warrant further study in other locations.

The effect of high ambient temperature on emergency room visits - Basu, Rupa; Pearson, Dharshani; Malig, Brian; Broadwin, Rachel; Green, Rochelle (Epidemiology, 2012)
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The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States - Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J. (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species’ suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr−1, about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr−1). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species’ distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.

Detecting anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic Ocean - Bates, N. R.; Best, M. H. P.; Neely, K.; Garley, R.; Dickson, A. G.; Johnson, R. J. (Biogeosciences, 2012)
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Vulnerability of coastal communities from storm surge and flood disasters - Bathi, Jejal Reddy; Das, Himangshu S. (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2016)

Understanding and Assessing Climate Change: Implications for Nebraska - Bathke, Deborah J.; Oglesby, Robert J.; Rowe, Clinton M.; Wilhite, Donald A. (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2014)
ISBN: 1-56161-037-2 ISBN13: 978-1-56161-037-2

Gaining Ground: Wetlands, Hurricanes and the Economy: The Value of Restoring the Mississippi River Delta - Batker, David; de la Torre, Isabel; Costanza, Robert; Swedeen, Paula; Day, John; Boumans, Roelof; Bagstad, Kenneth (Earth Economics, 2010)

The use of prairie potholes by North American ducks - Batt, B.D.; Anderson, M.G.; Anderson, C.D.; Caswell, F.D. (Northern Prairie Wetlands, 1989)

Aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize in Europe increases due to climate change - Battilani, P.; Toscano, P.; Van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; Moretti, A.; Camardo Leggieri, M.; Brera, C.; Rortais, A.; Goumperis, T.; Robinson, T. (Scientific Reports, 2016)

The geography of forest diversity and community changes under future climate conditions in the eastern United States - Bauer, Adam; Farrell, Rachel; Goldblum, David (Ecoscience, 2016)

California through Native Eyes: Reclaiming History - Bauer, William J., Jr. (University of Washington Press, 2016)

Annual Revision of Gross Domestic Product by Metropolitan Area: Advance Statistics for 2015 and Revised Statistics for 2001–2014 - Baumgardner, Frank T.; Hinson, Jacob R.; Panek, Sharon D. (U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2016)

When You Can't Go Home: The Gulf Coast 10 Years after Katrina - Baussan, Danielle (Center for American Progress, 2015)

Key role of the North Pacific Oscillation–West Pacific Pattern in generating the extreme 2013/14 North American winter - Baxter, Stephen; Nigam, Sumant (Journal of Climate, 2015)
The 2013/14 boreal winter (December 2013–February 2014) brought extended periods of anomalously cold weather to central and eastern North America. The authors show that a leading pattern of extratropical variability, whose sea level pressure footprint is the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and circulation footprint the West Pacific (WP) teleconnection—together, the NPO–WP—exhibited extreme and persistent amplitude in this winter. Reconstruction of the 850-hPa temperature, 200-hPa geopotential height, and precipitation reveals that the NPO–WP was the leading contributor to the winter climate anomaly over large swaths of North America. This analysis, furthermore, indicates that NPO–WP variability explains the most variance of monthly winter temperature over central-eastern North America since, at least, 1979. Analysis of the NPO–WP related thermal advection provides physical insight on the generation of the cold temperature anomalies over North America. Although NPO–WP’s origin and development remain to be elucidated, its concurrent links to tropical SSTs are tenuous. These findings suggest that notable winter climate anomalies in the Pacific–North American sector need not originate, directly, from the tropics. More broadly, the attribution of the severe 2013/14 winter to the flexing of an extratropical variability pattern is cautionary given the propensity to implicate the tropics, following several decades of focus on El Niño–Southern Oscillation and its regional and far-field impacts.
Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics,ENSO,Teleconnections,Mathematical and statistical techniques,Principal components analysis,Variability,Climate variability,North Atlantic Oscillation,North Pacific Oscillation

Considering the energy, water and food nexus: Towards an integrated modelling approach - Bazilian, Morgan; Rogner, Holger; Howells, Mark; Hermann, Sebastian; Arent, Douglas; Gielen, Dolf; Steduto, Pasquale; Mueller, Alexander; Komor, Paul; Tol, Richard S. J.; Yumkella, Kandeh K. (Energy Policy, 2011)
Keywords: Energy policy Energy, water and food Access to basic services

The changing epidemiology of waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States: Implications for system infrastructure and future planning - Beach, Michael J.; Roy, Sharon; Brunkard, Joan; Yoder, Jonathan; Hlavsa, Michele C. (Global Issues in Water, Sanitation, and Health: Workshop Summary, 2009)
As the human population grows--tripling in the past century while, simultaneously, quadrupling its demand for water--Earth's finite freshwater supplies are increasingly strained, and also increasingly contaminated by domestic, agricultural, and industrial wastes. Today, approximately one-third of the world's population lives in areas with scarce water resources. Nearly one billion people currently lack access to an adequate water supply, and more than twice as many lack access to basic sanitation services. It is projected that by 2025 water scarcity will affect nearly two-thirds of all people on the planet. Recognizing that water availability, water quality, and sanitation are fundamental issues underlying infectious disease emergence and spread, the Institute of Medicine held a two-day public workshop, summarized in this volume. Through invited presentations and discussions, participants explored global and local connections between water, sanitation, and health; the spectrum of water-related disease transmission processes as they inform intervention design; lessons learned from water-related disease outbreaks; vulnerabilities in water and sanitation infrastructure in both industrialized and developing countries; and opportunities to improve water and sanitation infrastructure so as to reduce the risk of water-related infectious disease.
Keywords: Health and Medicine Earth Sciences

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: Benefits of global climate stabilization - Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; et al. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015–2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

STORMTOOLS [web tool] - Beach SAMP (Rhode Island Shoreline Change Special Area Management Plan (Beach SAMP), 2018)

High-resolution modeling of coastal freshwater discharge and glacier mass balance in the Gulf of Alaska watershed - Beamer, J. P.; Hill, D. F.; Arendt, A.; Liston, G. E. (Water Resources Research, 2016)
Keywords: computational hydrology energy balance snow and ice streamflow 1840 Hydrometeorology 1863 Snow and ice 1876 Water budgets 1847 Modeling 1860 Streamflow

Ch. 5: Vector-borne diseases - Beard, Charles B.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Barker, Christopher M.; Garofalo, Jada F.; Hahn, Micah; Hayden, Mary; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Ogden, Nicholas H.; Schramm, Paul J. (The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, 2016)

Fort Tilden Historical Bulkhead Assessment - Bearmore, Bethany; Ozolin, Brett; Sacks, Patricia (Ports 2016: Port Planning and Development, 2016)
The overall purpose of the Fort Tilden project is to understand the potential impacts from future storms on existing natural and cultural resources, infrastructure, and safety of surrounding communities, and to use this as a guide for siting and designing future coastal protection measures. One existing protection measure that was exposed from the storm is the existing timber bulkhead. This paper assesses the bulkhead and groin system functions by utilizing a shoreline structure assessment and determines what coastal protection measures, if any, the bulkhead is providing currently or in the future. Beyond the condition assessment, a range of treatment options and initial costs were generated as an initial step in evaluation and recommendation of treatment for the bulkhead in the Fort Tilden Beach Environmental Assessment. This alternative analysis was performed to ascertain what defense measures are necessary to achieve the desired natural and cultural resource protection conditions for the site.

Hydrological effects of forest transpiration loss in bark beetle-impacted watersheds - Bearup, Lindsay A.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Clow, David W.; McCray, John E. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

Blackout of 2003: Health effects and emergency responses - Beatty, Mark E.; Phelps, Scot; Rohner, Chris; Weisfuse, Isaac (Public Health Reports, 2006)

Weather conditions and outdoor recreation: A study of New England ski areas - Beaudin, Laura; Huang, Ju-Chin (Ecological Economics, 2014)
Keywords: Discrete time survival analysis Market structure Climate change Weather conditions Tourism

Food insecurity among Inuit women exacerbated by socio-economic stresses and climate change - Beaumier, M.; Ford, J. D. (Canadian Journal of Public Health, 2010)
Objectives: To identify and characterize the determinants of food insecurity among Inuit women. Methods: A community-based study in Igloolik, Nunavut, using semi-structured interviews (n=36) and focus groups (n=5) with Inuit women, and key informants interviews with health professionals (n=13). Results: There is a high prevalence of food insecurity among Inuit females in Igloolik, with women in the study reporting skipping meals and reducing food intake on a regular basis. Food insecurity is largely transitory in nature and influenced by food affordability and budgeting; food knowledge; education and preferences; food quality and availability; absence of a full-time hunter in the household; cost of harvesting; poverty; and addiction. These determinants are operating in the context of changing livelihoods and climate-related stresses. Conclusion: Inuit women’s food insecurity in Igloolik is the outcome of multiple determinants operating at different spatial-temporal scales. Climate change and external socio-economic stresses are exacerbating difficulties in obtaining sufficient food. Coping strategies currently utilized to manage food insecurity are largely reactive and short-term in nature, and could increase food system vulnerability to future stresses. Intervention by local, territorial and federal governments is required to implement, coordinate and monitor strategies to enhance women’s food security, strengthen the food system, and reduce vulnerability to future stressors. Key words: Food security; food insecurity; Inuit; women; Nunavut; climate change; social determinants of health
Keywords: Food security, Inuit, women, Nunavut, climate change, socio-economic determinant

U.S. International Border: Brief Facts - Beaver, Janice Cheryl (Congressional Research Service, 2006)

Coastal Adaptation Strategies Handbook - Beavers, Rebecca; Babson, Amanda; Schupp, Courtney (U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service, 2016)

Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world - Bebber, Daniel P.; Ramotowski, Mark A. T.; Gurr, Sarah J. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

Effects of ocean acidification on early life stages of shrimp (Pandalus borealis) and mussel (Mytilus edulis) - Bechmann, Renée Katrin; Taban, Ingrid Christina; Westerlund, Stig; Godal, Brit Fjone; Arnberg, Maj; Vingen, Sjur; Ingvarsdottir, Anna; Baussant, Thierry (Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A, 2011)

Northern Cheyenne Tribe Drought Mitigation Plan - Beck Consulting (Prepared by Beck Consulting for Northern Cheyenne Tribe, 2007)

On water security, sustainability, and the water-food-energy-climate nexus - Beck, Michael Bruce; Villarroel Walker, Rodrigo (Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering, 2013)
The role of water security in sustainable development and in the nexus of water, food, energy and climate interactions is examined from the starting point of the definition of water security offered by Grey and Sadoff. Much about the notion of security has to do with the presumption of scarcity in the resources required to meet human needs. The treatment of scarcity in mainstream economics is in turn examined, therefore, in relation to how each of us as individuals reconciles means with ends, a procedure at the core of the idea of sustainable development. According to the Grey-Sadoff definition, attaining water security amounts to achieving basic, single-sector water development as a precursor of more general, self-sustaining, multi-sectoral development. This is consistent with the way in which water is treated as “first among equals”, i.e. privileged, in thinking about what is key in achieving security around the nexus of water, food, energy and climate. Cities, of course, are locations where demands for these multiple resource-energy flows are increasingly being generated. The paper discusses two important facets of security, i.e., diversity of access to resources and services (such as sanitation) and resilience in the behavior of coupled human-built-natural systems. Eight quasi-operational principles, by which to gauge nexus security with respect to city buildings and infrastructure, are developed.

The identification, conservation, and management of estuarine and marine nurseries for fish and invertebrates: A better understanding of the habitats that serve as nurseries for marine species and the factors that create site-specific variability in nursery quality will improve conservation and management of these areas - Beck, Michael W.; Heck, Kenneth L.; Able, Kenneth W.; Childers, Daniel L.; Eggleston, David B.; Gillanders, Bronwyn M.; Halpern, Benjamin; Hays, Cynthia G.; Hoshino, Kaho; Minello, Thomas J.; Orth, Robert J.; Sheridan, Peter F.; et al. (BioScience, 2001)
10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0633:TICAMO]2.0.CO;2

Cost and materials required to retrofit US seaports in response to sea level rise: A thought exercise for climate response - Becker, Austin; Hippe, Ariel; Mclean, Elizabeth (Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 2017)

Climate change impacts on international seaports: Knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators - Becker, A.; Inoue, S.; Fischer, M.; Schwegler, B. (Climatic Change, 2012)

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: A challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society - Becker, Austin H.; Acciaro, Michele; Asariotis, Regina; Cabrera, Edgard; Cretegny, Laurent; Crist, Philippe; Esteban, Miguel; Mather, Andrew; Messner, Steve; Naruse, Susumu; Ng, Adolf K. Y.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; et al. (Climatic Change, 2013)
With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.

Towards seaport resilience for climate change adaptation: Stakeholder perceptions of hurricane impacts in Gulfport (MS) and Providence (RI) - Becker, Austin Howard; Matson, Pamela; Fischer, Martin; Mastrandrea, Michael D. (Progress in Planning, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change Adaptation Resilience Disasters Seaports Stakeholder analysis Impact assessment

June 2016 ENSO Discussion: The New Neutral - Becker, Emily (Climate.gov ENSO Discussion, 2016)

Tidal marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary are not keeping up with sea-level rise - Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S. (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and in much of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mm yr-1 due to regional subsidence. Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, and may exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In one of the first studies to examine elevation dynamics across an estuarine salinity gradient, we installed 15 surface elevation tables (SET) and accretion marker-horizon plots (MH) in tidal freshwater, oligohaline, and brackish marshes across a Chesapeake Bay subestuary. Over the course of four years, wetlands across the subestuary decreased 1.8 ± 2.7 mm yr-1 in elevation on average, at least 5 mm yr-1 below that needed to keep pace with global sea-level rise. Elevation change rates did not significantly differ among the marshes studied, and ranged from -9.8 ± 6.9 to 4.5 ± 4.3 mm yr-1. Surface accretion of deposited mineral and organic matter was uniformly high across the estuary (~9–15 mm yr-1), indicating that elevation loss was not due to lack of accretionary input. Position in the estuary and associated salinity regime were not related to elevation change or surface matter accretion. Previous studies have focused on surface elevation change in marshes of uniform salinity (e.g., salt marshes); however, our findings highlight the need for elevation studies in marshes of all salinity regimes and different geomorphic positions, and warn that brackish, oligohaline, and freshwater tidal wetlands may be at similarly high risk of submergence in some estuaries.