Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) - ISU (Iowa State University (ISU), 2017)

STRIPS (Science-based Trials of Rowcrops Integrated with Prairie Strips) Project [web site] - ISU (Iowa State University (ISU), 2018)

Tribal Climate Change Profile. Fort McDowell Yavapai: Harnessing Solar Power for Energy Independence and Utilities Savings - ITEP (Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals (ITEP), Northern Arizona University, 2013)

Tribes and Climate Change Program: Tribal Profiles - ITEP (Northern Arizona University, Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals (ITEP), 2017)

Climate Change and Invasive Species: What It Means to Tribes and How We Can Adapt - ITEP (Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals (ITEP), Northern Arizona University, 2012)

The associations between daily spring pollen counts, over-the-counter allergy medication sales, and asthma syndrome emergency department visits in New York City, 2002-2012 - Ito, Kazuhiko; Weinberger, Kate R.; Robinson, Guy S.; Sheffield, Perry E.; Lall, Ramona; Mathes, Robert; Ross, Zev; Kinney, Patrick L.; Matte, Thomas D. (Environmental Health, 2015)
Many types of tree pollen trigger seasonal allergic illness, but their population-level impacts on allergy and asthma morbidity are not well established, likely due to the paucity of long records of daily pollen data that allow analysis of multi-day effects. Our objective in this study was therefore to determine the impacts of individual spring tree pollen types on over-the-counter allergy medication sales and asthma emergency department (ED) visits.

Variability of the oxygen minimum zone in the tropical North Pacific during the late twentieth century - Ito, Takamitsu; Deutsch, Curtis (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2013)
The oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) are especially sensitive to ocean deoxygenation due to the nonlinear dependence of their size on the oxygen inventory. Significant decadal variability has been observed in the extent and intensity of the tropical Pacific OMZ. Here we diagnose the physical and biogeochemical mechanisms behind the interannual and decadal variability of oxygen in the tropical Pacific thermocline using a three‐dimensional ocean biogeochemistry model that reproduces the expansion of the tropical Pacific OMZ since the 1980s. On interannual time scales, heat content and respiration rates are strongly influenced by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation cycles and the associated changes in upwelling. The resulting changes in solubility and apparent oxygen utilization tend to compensate one another, thus damping the magnitude of oxygen variability. Regional oxygen budget reveals the subtle balance between the lateral and vertical ocean circulation in controlling the physical oxygen supply to the eastern tropical Pacific. Spectral analysis shows that the tropical Pacific oxygen has a stronger variance in decadal time scales than its physical and biological drivers. Our results suggest that the physical oxygen supply and biological oxygen loss are integrated through the finite memory of thermocline waters to produce the multidecadal variability of OMZ.

Upper ocean O2 trends: 1958–2015 - Ito, Takamitsu; Minobe, Shoshiro; Long, Matthew C.; Deutsch, Curtis (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: climate change biogeochemical cycling marine chemistry global warming data analysis climate impacts 1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 1635 Oceans

Examining why trends in very heavy precipitation should not be mistaken for trends in very high river discharge - Ivancic, Timothy J.; Shaw, Stephen B. (Climatic Change, 2015)
It is firmly established in the hydrologic literature that flooding depends on both antecedent watershed wetness and precipitation. One could phrase this relationship as “heavy precipitation does not necessarily lead to high stream discharge”, but rarely do studies directly affirm this statement. We have observed several non-hydrologists mistake trends in heavy precipitation as a proxy for trends in riverine flooding. If the relationship between heavy precipitation and high discharge was more often explicitly presented, heavy precipitation may less often be misinterpreted as a proxy for discharge. In this paper, we undertake such an analysis for 390 watersheds across the contiguous U.S. We found that 99th percentile precipitation only results in 99th percentage discharge 36 % of the time. However, when conditioned on soil moisture from the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, 62 % of 99th percentile precipitation results in 99th percentile discharge during wet periods and only 13 % during dry periods. When relating trends in heavy precipitation to hydrologic response, precipitation data should, therefore, be segregated based on concurrent soil moisture. Taking this approach for climate predictions, we found that CMIP-5 atmosphere–ocean global circulation model (AOGCM) simulations for a RCP 6.0 forcing project increases in concurrence of greater than median soil wetness and extreme precipitation in the northern United States and a decrease in the south, suggesting northern regions could see an increase in very high discharges while southern regions could see decreases despite both regions having an increase in extreme precipitation. While the actual outcome is speculative given the uncertainties of the AOGCM’s, such an analysis provides a more sophisticated framework from which to evaluate the output as well as historic climate data.

Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios - Iverson, L.R.; Prasad, A.M.; Matthews, S.N.; Peters, M. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2008)
Keywords: Climate Change; CV paper

Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: Results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models - Iverson, Louis R.; Thompson, Frank R.; Matthews, Stephen; Peters, Matthew; Prasad, Anantha; Dijak, William D.; Fraser, Jacob; Wang, Wen J.; Hanberry, Brice; He, Hong; Janowiak, Maria; Butler, Patricia; et al. (Landscape Ecology, 2017)
Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Diné: A History of the Navajos - Iverson, Peter (University of New Mexico Press, 2002)

Technical Support Document: Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866 - IWGSCC (Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon (IWGSCC), 2010)

Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for forage and rangeland production - Izaurralde, R.C.; Thomson, A.M.; Morgan, J.A.; Fay, P.A.; Polley, H.W.; Hatfield, J.L. (Agronomy Journal, 2011)

Planning the resilient city: Concepts and strategies for coping with climate change and environmental risk - Jabareen, Yosef (Cities, 2013)
Keywords: Urban resilience Climate change Environmental risks Planning

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: Projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution - Jackson, J.E.; Yost, M.G.; Karr, C.; Fitzpatrick, C.; Lamb, B.K.; Chung, S.H.; Chen, J.; Avise, J.; Rosenblatt, R.A.; Fenske, R.A. (Climatic Change, 2010)

A probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and High-end scenarios - Jackson, Luke P.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana (Global and Planetary Change, 2016)
Keywords: Sea-level projection Probability Uncertainty RCP scenarios Climate change

Reaching peak emissions - Jackson, Robert B.; Canadell, Josep G.; Le Quere, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Peters, Glen P.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Responses of plant populations and communities to environmental changes of the late Quaternary - Jackson, Stephen T.; Overpeck, Jonathan T. (Paleobiology, 2000)

Vegetation and environment in Eastern North America during the Last Glacial Maximum - Jackson, Stephen T.; Webb, Robert S.; Anderson, Katharine H.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Webb III, Thompson; Williams, John W.; Hansen, Barbara C. S. (Quaternary Science Reviews, 2000)

Effect of climate change on air quality - Jacob, Daniel J.; Winner, Darrell A. (Atmospheric Environment, 2009)

Baseline land cover - Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Gon, Samuel M., III; Berkowitz, Paul (Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Storage and Carbon Fluxes in Ecosystems of Hawai‘i, 2017)
This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to improve understanding of factors influencing carbon balance in ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Ecosystem carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and carbon balance were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems on the seven main Hawaiian islands in two time periods: baseline (from 2007 through 2012) and future (projections from 2012 through 2061). The assessment incorporated observed data, remote sensing, statistical methods, and simulation models. The national assessment has been completed for the conterminous United States, using methodology described in SIR 2010-5233, with results provided in three regional reports (PP 1804, PP 1797, and PP 1897), and for Alaska, with results provided in PP 1826.

A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae - Jacobs, J.; Moore, S.K.; Kunkel, K.E.; Sun, L. (Climate Risk Management, 2015)

Recent and future outlooks for nuisance flooding impacts on roadways on the US East Coast - Jacobs, Jennifer M.; Cattaneo, Lia R.; Sweet, William; Mansfield, Theodore (Transportation Research Record, 2018)
Tidal floods (i.e., “nuisance” flooding) are occurring more often during seasonal high tides or minor wind events, and the frequency is expected to increase dramatically in the coming decades. During these flood events, coastal communities’ roads are often impassable or difficult to pass, thus impacting routine transport needs. This study identifies vulnerable roads and quantifies the risk from nuisance flooding in the Eastern United States by combining public road information from the Federal Highway Administration’s Highway Performance Monitoring System with flood frequency maps, tidal gauge historic observations, and future projections of annual minor tidal flood frequencies and durations. The results indicate that tidal nuisance flooding across the East Coast threatens 7508 miles (12,083 km) of roadways including over 400 miles (644 km) of interstate roadways. From 1996–2005 to 2006–2015, there was a 90% average increase in nuisance floods. With sea level rise, nuisance-flood frequency is projected to grow at all locations assessed. The total induced vehicle-hours of delay due to nuisance flooding currently exceed 100 million hours annually. Nearly 160 million vehicle-hours of delay across the East Coast by 2020 (85% increase from 2010); 1.2 billion vehicle-hours by 2060 (126% increase from 2010); and 3.4 billion vehicle-hours by 2100 (392% increase from 2010) are projected under an intermediate low sea-level-rise scenario. By 2056–2065, nuisance flooding could occur almost daily at sites in Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, the District of Columbia, North Carolina, and Florida under an intermediate sea-level-rise scenario.

Transportation - Jacobs, J.M.; Culp, M.; Cattaneo, L.; Chinowsky, P.; Choate, A.; DesRoches, S.; Douglass, S.; Miller, R. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Linking knowledge with action in the pursuit of sustainable water-resources management - Jacobs, Katharine; Lebel, Louis; Buizer, James; Addams, Lee; Matson, Pamela; McCullough, Ellen; Garden, Po; Saliba, George; Finan, Timothy (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Managing water for sustainable use and economic development is both a technical and a governance challenge in which knowledge production and sharing play a central role. This article evaluates and compares the role of participatory governance and scientific information in decision-making in four basins in Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, and the United States. Water management institutions in each of the basins have evolved during the last 10–20 years from a relatively centralized water-management structure at the state or national level to a decision structure that involves engaging water users within the basins and the development of participatory processes. This change is consistent with global trends in which states increasingly are expected to gain public acceptance for larger water projects and policy changes. In each case, expanded citizen engagement in identifying options and in decision-making processes has resulted in more complexity but also has expanded the culture of integrated learning. International funding for water infrastructure has been linked to requirements for participatory management processes, but, ironically, this study finds that participatory processes appear to work better in the context of decisions that are short-term and easily adjusted, such as water-allocation decisions, and do not work so well for longer-term, high-stakes decisions regarding infrastructure. A second important observation is that the costs of capacity building to allow meaningful stakeholder engagement in water-management decision processes are not widely recognized. Failure to appreciate the associated costs and complexities may contribute to the lack of successful engagement of citizens in decisions regarding infrastructure.

Assessing the San Juan Bay Estuary Program’s Vulnerabilities to Climate Change - Jacobs, Kasey R.; Pérez, Angela Isabel (San Juan Bay Estuary Program, 2013)

Environmental temperatures, physiology and behavior limit the range expansion of invasive Burmese pythons in southeastern USA - Jacobson, Elliott R.; Barker, David G.; Barker, Tracy M.; Mauldin, Richard; Avery, Michael L.; Engeman, Richard; Secor, Stephen (Integrative Zoology, 2012)
Keywords: ambient temperature Burmese python invasion snake thermal tolerance

Field estimation of a lethal oxythermal niche boundary for adult ciscoes in Minnesota lakes - Jacobson, Peter C.; Jones, Thomas S.; Rivers, Pat; Pereira, Donald L. (Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 2008)

Coldwater fish oxythermal habitat in Minnesota lakes: Influence of total phosphorus, July air temperature, and relative depth - Jacobson, Peter C.; Stefan, Heinz G.; Pereira, Donald L. (Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2010)

Ch. 27: Mitigation - Jacoby, Henry D.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Birdsey, Richard; Buizer, James; Calvin, Katherine; de la Chesnaye, Francisco; Schimel, David; Sue Wing, Ian; Detchon, Reid; Edmonds, Jae; Russell, Lynn; West, Jason (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Forcing of multiyear extreme ocean temperatures that impacted California Current living marine resources in 2016 [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective"] - Jacox, Michael G.; Alexander, Michael A.; Mantua, Nathan J.; Scott, James D .; Hervieux, Gaelle; Webb, Robert S.; Werner, Francisco E. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018)

On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability - Jacox, Michael G.; Alexander, Michael A.; Stock, Charles A.; Hervieux, Gaëlle (Climate Dynamics, 2017)
The California Current System (CCS) is a biologically productive Eastern Boundary Upwelling System that experiences considerable environmental variability on seasonal and interannual timescales. Given that this variability drives changes in ecologically and economically important living marine resources, predictive skill for regional oceanographic conditions is highly desirable. Here, we assess the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts in the CCS using output from Global Climate Forecast Systems in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), and describe mechanisms that underlie SST predictability. A simple persistence forecast provides considerable skill for lead times up to ~4 months, while skill above persistence is mostly confined to forecasts of late winter/spring and derives primarily from predictable evolution of ENSO-related variability. Specifically, anomalously weak (strong) equatorward winds are skillfully forecast during El Niño (La Niña) events, and drive negative (positive) upwelling anomalies and consequently warm (cold) temperature anomalies. This mechanism prevails during moderate to strong ENSO events, while years of ENSO-neutral conditions are not associated with significant forecast skill in the wind or significant skill above persistence in SST. We find also a strong latitudinal gradient in predictability within the CCS; SST forecast skill is highest off the Washington/Oregon coast and lowest off southern California, consistent with variable wind forcing being the dominant driver of SST predictability. These findings have direct implications for regional downscaling of seasonal forecasts and for short-term management of living marine resources.

On the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO variability - Jacox, Michael G.; Alexander, Michael A.; Stock, Charles A.; Hervieux, Gaëlle (Climate Dynamics, 2017)
The California Current System (CCS) is a biologically productive Eastern Boundary Upwelling System that experiences considerable environmental variability on seasonal and interannual timescales. Given that this variability drives changes in ecologically and economically important living marine resources, predictive skill for regional oceanographic conditions is highly desirable. Here, we assess the skill of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts in the CCS using output from Global Climate Forecast Systems in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), and describe mechanisms that underlie SST predictability. A simple persistence forecast provides considerable skill for lead times up to ~4 months, while skill above persistence is mostly confined to forecasts of late winter/spring and derives primarily from predictable evolution of ENSO-related variability. Specifically, anomalously weak (strong) equatorward winds are skillfully forecast during El Niño (La Niña) events, and drive negative (positive) upwelling anomalies and consequently warm (cold) temperature anomalies. This mechanism prevails during moderate to strong ENSO events, while years of ENSO-neutral conditions are not associated with significant forecast skill in the wind or significant skill above persistence in SST. We find also a strong latitudinal gradient in predictability within the CCS; SST forecast skill is highest off the Washington/Oregon coast and lowest off southern California, consistent with variable wind forcing being the dominant driver of SST predictability. These findings have direct implications for regional downscaling of seasonal forecasts and for short-term management of living marine resources.

Impacts of the 2015–2016 El Niño on the California Current System: Early assessment and comparison to past events - Jacox, Michael G.; Hazen, Elliott L.; Zaba, Katherine D.; Rudnick, Daniel L.; Edwards, Christopher A.; Moore, Andrew M.; Bograd, Steven J. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: El Niño ENSO glider ROMS the Blob 1997–1998 4215 Climate and interannual variability 4279 Upwelling and convergences 4522 ENSO 4516 Eastern boundary currents 4855 Phytoplankton

Drought effects on damage by forest insects and pathogens: A meta-analysis - Jactel, Hervé; Petit, Jérôme; Desprez-Loustau, Marie-Laure; Delzon, Sylvain; Piou, Dominique; Battisti, Andrea; Koricheva, Julia (Global Change Biology, 2012)
Keywords: drought fungus pest risk analysis tree

Effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate - Jafarov, Elchin E.; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Genet, Helene; McGuire, Anthony David; Marchenko, Sergey S. (Environmental Research Letters, 2013)

Influence of fires on O3 concentrations in the western US - Jaffe, D.; Chand, D.; Hafner, W.; Westerling, A.; Spracklen, D. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2008)

Interannual variations in PM2.5 due to wildfires in the western United States - Jaffe, D.; Hafner, W.; Chand, D.; Westerling, A.; Spracklen, D. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2008)

Ozone production from wildfires: A critical review - Jaffe, Daniel A.; Wigder, Nicole L. (Atmospheric Environment, 2012)
Keywords: Ozone production Wildfires Air quality impacts Ozone exceedances Ozone photochemistry Fire emissions

Meteorological anomalies lead to elevated O3 in the western U.S. in June 2015 - Jaffe, D. A.; Zhang, L. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: ozone climate change 0345 Pollution: urban and regional 0365 Troposphere: composition and chemistry

Hospitalizations for heat-stress illness varies between rural and urban areas: An analysis of Illinois data, 1987–2014 - Jagai, Jyotsna S.; Grossman, Elena; Navon, Livia; Sambanis, Apostolis; Dorevitch, Samuel (Environmental Health, 2017)
The disease burden due to heat-stress illness (HSI), which can result in significant morbidity and mortality, is expected to increase as the climate continues to warm. In the United States (U.S.) much of what is known about HSI epidemiology is from analyses of urban heat waves. There is limited research addressing whether HSI hospitalization risk varies between urban and rural areas, nor is much known about additional diagnoses of patients hospitalized for HSI.

Extreme precipitation and emergency room visits for gastrointestinal illness in areas with and without combined sewer systems: An analysis of Massachusetts data, 2003-2007 - Jagai, J.S.; Li, Quanlin; Wang, Shiliang; Messier, K.P.; Wade, Timothy J.; Hilborn, Elizabeth D. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2015)

Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050 - Jaggard, K. W.; Qi, A.; Ober, E. S. (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, 2010)
By 2050, the world population is likely to be 9.1 billion, the CO(2) concentration 550 ppm, the ozone concentration 60 ppb and the climate warmer by ca 2 degrees C. In these conditions, what contribution can increased crop yield make to feeding the world? CO(2) enrichment is likely to increase yields of most crops by approximately 13 per cent but leave yields of C4 crops unchanged. It will tend to reduce water consumption by all crops, but this effect will be approximately cancelled out by the effect of the increased temperature on evaporation rates. In many places increased temperature will provide opportunities to manipulate agronomy to improve crop performance. Ozone concentration increases will decrease yields by 5 per cent or more. Plant breeders will probably be able to increase yields considerably in the CO(2)-enriched environment of the future, and most weeds and airborne pests and diseases should remain controllable, so long as policy changes do not remove too many types of crop-protection chemicals. However, soil-borne pathogens are likely to be an increasing problem when warmer weather will increase their multiplication rates; control is likely to need a transgenic approach to breeding for resistance. There is a large gap between achievable yields and those delivered by farmers, even in the most efficient agricultural systems. A gap is inevitable, but there are large differences between farmers, even between those who have used the same resources. If this gap is closed and accompanied by improvements in potential yields then there is a good prospect that crop production will increase by approximately 50 per cent or more by 2050 without extra land. However, the demands for land to produce bio-energy have not been factored into these calculations.
Keywords: Agriculture/ methods Carbon Dioxide Climate Change Crops, Agricultural/ growth & development Food Supply Humans Ozone Water

Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model® - Jaglom, Wendy S.; McFarland, James R.; Colley, Michelle F.; Mack, Charlotte B.; Venkatesh, Boddu; Miller, Rawlings L.; Haydel, Juanita; Schultz, Peter A.; Perkins, Bill; Casola, Joseph H.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Cross, Paul; et al. (Energy Policy, 2014)
Keywords: Climate change Electricity demand Electric power sector

Floods in a changing climate: Does the past represent the future? - Jain, S.; Lall, U. (Water Resources Research, 2001)
Hydrologists have traditionally assumed that the annual maximum flood process at a location is independent and identically distributed. While nonstationarities in the flood process due to land use changes have long been recognized, it is only recently becoming clear that structured interannual, interdecadal, and longer time variations in planetary climate impart the temporal structure to the flood frequency process at flood control system design and operation timescales. The influence of anthropogenic climate change on the nature of floods is also an issue of societal concern. Here we focus on (1) a diagnosis of variations in the frequency of floods that are synchronous with low‐frequency climate state and (2) an exploration of limiting flood probability distributions implied by a long simulation of a model of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Implications for flood risk analysis are discussed.

Nonstationarity in extremes and engineering design - Jakob, Dörte (Extremes in a Changing Climate: Detection, Analysis and Uncertainty, 2013)

Science Challenges and Future Directions: Climate Change Integrated Assessment Research. Report PNNL-18417 - Janetos, A.C.; Clarke, L.; Collins, B.; Ebi, K.; Edmonds, J.; Foster, I.; Jacoby, J.; Judd, K.; Leung, R.; Newell, R. (U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, 2009)

The Risks of Multiple Breadbasket Failures in the 21st Century: A Science Research Agenda - Janetos, Anthony C.; Justice, Christopher; Jahn, Molly; Obersteiner, Michael; Glauber, Jospeh; Mulhern, Willam (Pardee Center Research Report, 2017)
ISBN: 978-1-936727-14-8

Hidden climate change—Urban meteorology and the scales of real weather - Jankovic, V.; Hebbert, M. (Climatic Change, 2012)
This paper discusses the scale at which the weather is experienced and modified by human activities in urban environment. The climates of built-up areas differ from their non-urban counterparts in many aspect: wind-flows, radiation, humidity, precipitation and air quality all change in the presence of human settlement, transforming each city into a singularity within its regional weather system. Yet this pervasive category of anthropogenic climate change has always tended to be hidden and difficult to discern. The paper first describes the sequence of discovery of the urban heat island since the early nineteenth century, and the emergence and consolidation of a scientific field devoted to the climatology of cities. This is followed by a discussion of various attempts to apply knowledge of climatic factors to the design and management of settlement. We find that real-world application of urban climatology has met with limited success. However, the conclusion suggests that global climate change gives a new visibility and practical relevance to urban-scale climate science.

Vulnerability of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands to present-day rates of relative sea-level rise - Jankowski, Krista L.; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.; Fernandes, Anjali M. (Nature Communications, 2017)

New England and New York Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis - Janowiak, Maria K.; D’Amato, A.W.; Swanston, C.W.; Iverson, L.; Thompson III, F.; Dijak, W.; Matthews, S.; Peters, M.; Prasad, A.; Fraser, J.S.; Brandt, L.A.; Butler, P.R.; et al. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 2018)

Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis for Northern Wisconsin and Western Upper Michigan: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project - Janowiak, Maria K.; Iverson, Louis R.; Mladenoff, David J.; Peters, Emily; Wythers, Kirk R.; Xi, Weimin; Brandt, Leslie A.; Butler, Patricia R.; Handler, Stephen D.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Chris; Parker, Linda R.; et al. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 2014)

Climate Change and Adaptation: New England and Northern New York Forests [story map] - Janowiak, Maria K.; Nett, J.; Johnson, E.; Walker, N.; Handler, S.; Swanston, C. (USDA Forest Service, 2018)

A practical approach for translating climate change adaptation principles into forest management actions - Janowiak, Maria K.; Swanston, Christopher W.; Nagel, Linda M.; Brandt, Leslie A.; Butler, Patricia R.; Handler, Stephen D.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Iverson, Louis R.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Prasad, Anantha; Peters, Matthew P. (Journal of Forestry, 2014)
There is an ever-growing body of literature on forest management strategies for climate change adaptation; however, few frameworks have been presented for integrating these strategies with the real-world challenges of forest management. We have developed a structured approach for translating broad adaptation concepts into specific management actions and silvicultural practices for forest adaptation, as well as an associated set of resources to assist managers in using this approach. A variety of public, private, nongovernmental, and tribal natural resource managers are using this approach to develop projects that implement a diversity of adaptation actions while also meeting manager-identified goals. We describe how managers can integrate climate change information into management planning and activities and provide examples of real-world forest management projects that identify actions to help forests adapt to changing conditions.
Keywords: adaptation case study climate change forest management

Observational- and model-based trends and projections of extreme precipitation over the contiguous United States - Janssen, Emily; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Olsen, Seth C.; Goodman, Alex (Earth’s Future, 2014)
Keywords: Extreme Precipitation CMIP5 1637 Regional climate change 1610 Atmosphere 1620 Climate dynamics 1626 Global climate models 1627 Coupled models of the climate system

Institutional barriers to climate change adaptation in US national parks and forests - Jantarasami, Lesley C.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Thomas, Craig W. (Ecology and Society, 2010)

Tribes and Indigenous Peoples - Jantarasami, L.C.; Novak, R.; Delgado, R.; Marino, E; McNeeley, S.; Narducci, C.; Raymond-Yakoubian, J.; Singletary, L.; Whyte, K. Powys (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Preliminary viability assessment of Lake Mendocino forecast informed reservoir operations - Jasperse, Jay; Ralph, Marty; Anderson, Michael; Brekke, Levi D.; Dillabough, Mike; Dettinger, Michael; Haynes, Alan; Hartman, Robert; Jones, Christy; Forbis, Joe; Rutten, Patrick; Talbot, Cary; et al. (Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), 2017)

Air- and Stream-Water-Temperature Trends in the Chesapeake Bay Region, 1960–2014 - Jastram, John D.; Rice, Karen C. (Open-File Report, 2015)

Overview - Jay, A.; Reidmiller, D.R.; Avery, C.W.; Barrie, D.; DeAngelo, B.J.; Dave, A.; Dzaugis, M.; Kolian, M.; Lewis, K.L.M.; Reeves, K.; West, T.; Winner, D. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Walrus areas of use in the Chukchi Sea during sparse sea ice cover - Jay, Chadwick V.; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Kochnev, Anatoly A. (Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2012)

eMODIS: A User-Friendly Data Source - Jenkerson, Calli; Maiersperger, Thomas; Schmidt, Gail (USGS, 2010)

US protected lands mismatch biodiversity priorities - Jenkins, Clinton N.; Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Pimm, Stuart L.; Sexton, Joseph O. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
Because habitat loss is the main cause of extinction, where and how much society chooses to protect is vital for saving species. The United States is well positioned economically and politically to pursue habitat conservation should it be a societal goal. We assessed the US protected area portfolio with respect to biodiversity in the country. New synthesis maps for terrestrial vertebrates, freshwater fish, and trees permit comparison with protected areas to identify priorities for future conservation investment. Although the total area protected is substantial, its geographic configuration is nearly the opposite of patterns of endemism within the country. Most protected lands are in the West, whereas the vulnerable species are largely in the Southeast. Private land protections are significant, but they are not concentrated where the priorities are. To adequately protect the nation’s unique biodiversity, we recommend specific areas deserving additional protection, some of them including public lands, but many others requiring private investment.

Tradition and transition: Parasitic zoonoses of people and animals in Alaska, northern Canada, and Greenland - Jenkins, Emily J.; Castrodale, Louisa J.; de Rosemond, Simone J.C.; Dixon, Brent R.; Elmore, Stacey A.; Gesy, Karen M.; Hoberg, Eric P.; Polley, Lydden; Schurer, Janna M.; Simard, Manon; Thompson, R. C. Andrew (Advances in Parasitology, 2013)
Keywords: Alaska/epidemiology Animals Canada/epidemiology Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology/*parasitology Foodborne Diseases/epidemiology/parasitology Greenland/epidemiology Humans Incidence Infection Control/methods Parasites/classification/isolation & purification Parasitic Diseases/*epidemiology/*transmission Prevalence Zoonoses/*epidemiology/*parasitology

Interactions among the mountain pine beetle, fires, and fuels - Jenkins, Michael J.; Runyon, Justin B.; Fettig, Christopher J.; Page, Wesley G.; Bentz, Barbara J. (Forest Science, 2014)
Bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires are principal drivers of change in western North American forests, and both have increased in severity and extent in recent years. These two agents of disturbance interact in complex ways to shape forest structure and composition. For example, mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, epidemics alter forest fuels with consequences for the frequency and intensity of wildfires and, conversely, fire injury to trees can promote bark beetle attack and increase beetle populations. Given the great influence these processes have on forest ecosystems, a better understanding of how bark beetles and fires interact is needed to better manage forests and to predict and manage wildfires. Here we review current knowledge on how fire and bark beetles interact, focusing on the mountain pine beetle. We highlight research on how fuel reduction treatments and wildfires affect bark beetles and how bark beetles can affect wildfires by modifying the moisture content, chemistry, and structure of fuels. Last, we discuss the implications these findings have for fire management and firefighter safety.
10.5849/forsci.13-017

Identifying stakeholder-relevant climate change impacts: A case study in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA - Jenni, K.; Graves, D.; Hardiman, J.; Hatten, J.; Mastin, M.; Mesa, M.; Montag, J.; Nieman, T.; Voss, F.; Maule, A. (Climatic Change, 2014)
Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.

Predicting the effects of climate change on marine communities and the consequences for fisheries - Jennings, Simon; Brander, Keith (Journal of Marine Systems, 2010)
Keywords: Climate Climate changes Biological production Fisheries Size-spectra Prediction Metabolic theory

Approaching environmental health disparities and green spaces: An ecosystem services perspective - Jennings, Viniece; Johnson Gaither, Cassandra (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2015)

Inherited hypoxia: A new challenge for reoligotrophicated lakes under global warming - Jenny, Jean‐Philippe; Arnaud, Fabien; Alric, Benjamin; Dorioz, Jean‐Marcel; Sabatier, Pierre; Meybeck, Michel; Perga, Marie‐Elodie (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2014)
The Anthropocene is characterized by a worldwide spread of hypoxia, among other manifestations, which threatens aquatic ecosystem functions, services, and biodiversity. The primary cause of hypoxia onset in recent decades is human‐triggered eutrophication. Global warming has also been demonstrated to contribute to the increase of hypoxic conditions. However, the precise role of both environmental forcings on hypoxia dynamics over the long term remains mainly unknown due to a lack of historical monitoring. In this study, we used an innovative paleolimnological approach on three large European lakes to quantify past hypoxia dynamics and to hierarchies the contributions of climate and nutrients. Even for lake ecosystems that have been well oxygenated over a millennia‐long period, and regardless of past climatic fluctuations, a shift to hypoxic conditions occurred in the 1950s in response to an unprecedented rise in total phosphorus concentrations above 10 ± 5 µg P L−1. Following this shift, hypoxia never disappeared despite the fact that environmental policies succeeded in drastically reducing lake phosphorus concentrations. During that period, decadal fluctuations in hypoxic volume were great, ranging between 0.5 and 8% of the total lake volumes. We demonstrate, through statistical modeling, that these fluctuations were essentially driven by climatic factors, such as river discharge and air temperature. In lakes Geneva and Bourget, which are fed by large river systems, fluctuations in hypoxic volume were negatively correlated with river discharge. In contrast, the expansion of hypoxia has been related only to warmer air temperatures at Annecy, which is fed by small river systems. Hence, we outline a theoretical framework assuming that restored lake ecosystems have inherited hypoxia from the eutrophication period and have shifted to a new stable state with new key controls of water and ecosystem quality. We suggest that controlling river discharge may be a complementary strategy for local management of lakes fed by large river systems.

Transforming existing weather data for worldwide locations to enable energy and building performance simulation under future climates - Jentsch, Mark F.; James, Patrick A. B.; Bourikas, Leonidas; Bahaj, AbuBakr S. (Renewable Energy, 2013)
Keywords: Climate change Simulation weather data Weather data morphing Weather data generation tool

Quantile-based bias correction and uncertainty quantification of extreme event attribution statements - Jeon, Soyoung; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Wehner, Michael F. (Weather and Climate Extremes, 2016)

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California - Jeon, S.; Prabhat; Byna, S.; Gu, J.; Collins, W. D.; Wehner, M. F. (Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 2015)
ASCMO

Rain-on-snow events over North America based on two Canadian regional climate models - Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi (Climate Dynamics, 2017)
This study evaluates projected changes to rain-on-snow (ROS) characteristics (i.e., frequency, rainfall amount, and runoff) for the future 2041–2070 period with respect to the current 1976–2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Prior to assessing projected changes, the two RCMs are evaluated by comparing ERA-Interim driven RCM simulations with available observations, and results indicate that both models reproduce reasonably well the observed spatial patterns of ROS event frequency and other related features. Analysis of current and future simulations suggest general increases in ROS characteristics during the November–March period for most regions of Canada and for northwestern US for the future period, due to an increase in the rainfall frequency with warmer air temperatures in future. Future ROS runoff is often projected to increase more than future ROS rainfall amounts, particularly for northeastern North America, during snowmelt months, as ROS events usually accelerate snowmelt. The simulations show that ROS event is a primary flood generating mechanism over most of Canada and north-western and -central US for the January–May period for the current period and this is projected to continue in the future period. More focused analysis over selected basins shows decreases in future spring runoff due to decreases in both snow cover and ROS runoff. The above results highlight the need to take into consideration ROS events in water resources management adaptation strategies for future climate.

Macroscale prediction of autumn leaf coloration throughout the continental United States - Jeong, Su-Jong; Medvigy, David (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2014)
Keywords: Autumn phenology climate change deciduous trees leaf coloration phenology models scaling

Predicting changes in temperate forest budburst using continental-scale observations and models - Jeong, Su-Jong; Medvigy, David; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey (Geophysical Research Letters, 2013)
Keywords: 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions 0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 1622 Earth system modeling 1626 Global climate models 1627 Coupled models of the climate system

The racial/ethnic distribution of heat risk–related land cover in relation to residential segregation - Jesdale, Bill M.; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Cushing, Lara (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2013)
Ch9

Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850 - Jevrejeva, S.; Grinsted, A.; Moore, J. C. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2009)
Keywords: sea level rise volcanic and solar radiative forcing CO2 and other greenhouse gases 1724 Ocean sciences 1707 Cryosphere 1807 Climate impacts 4556 Sea level: variations and mean

Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 - Jevrejeva, S.; Grinsted, A.; Moore, J. C. (Environmental Research Letters, 2014)
We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated by process based models with the RCP8.5 scenario. The agreement between the methods may suggest more confidence than is warranted since large uncertainties remain due to the lack of scenario-dependent projections from ice sheet dynamical models, particularly for mass loss from marine-based fast flowing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. This leads to an intrinsically hard to quantify fat tail in the probability distribution for global mean sea level rise. Thus our low probability upper limit of sea level projections cannot be considered definitive. Nevertheless, our upper limit of 180 cm for sea level rise by 2100 is based on both expert opinion and process studies and hence indicates that other lines of evidence are needed to justify a larger sea level rise this century.

Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C - Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P.; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This “2 °C” threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.

Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices - Jewell, Jessica; Cherp, Aleh; Riahi, Keywan (Energy Policy, 2014)
Keywords: Energy security Climate change Indicators

Ocean acidification and other ocean changes - Jewett, L.; Romanou, A. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

Heat stress in crop plants: Its nature, impacts and integrated breeding strategies to improve heat tolerance - Jha, Uday Chand; Bohra, Abhishek; Singh, Narendra Pratap (Plant Breeding, 2014)
Increasing severity of high temperature worldwide presents an alarming threat to the humankind. As evident by massive yield losses in various food crops, the escalating adverse impacts of heat stress (HS) are putting the global food as well as nutritional security at great risk. Intrinsically, plants respond to high temperature stress by triggering a cascade of events and adapt by switching on numerous stress‐responsive genes. However, the complex and poorly understood mechanism of heat tolerance (HT), limited access to the precise phenotyping techniques, and above all, the substantial G × E effects offer major bottlenecks to the progress of breeding for improving HT. Therefore, focus should be given to assess the crop diversity, and targeting the adaptive/morpho‐physiological traits while making selections. Equally important is the rapid and precise introgression of the HT‐related gene(s)/QTLs to the heat‐susceptible cultivars to recover the genotypes with enhanced HT. Therefore, the progressive tailoring of the heat‐tolerant genotypes demands a rational integration of molecular breeding, functional genomics and transgenic technologies reinforced with the next‐generation phenomics facilities.

Effect modification of ozone-related mortality risks by temperature in 97 US cities - Jhun, Iny; Fann, Neal; Zanobetti, Antonella; Hubbell, Bryan (Environment International, 2014)
Ch3

Marine plankton phenology and life history in a changing climate: Current research and future directions - Ji, Rubao; Edwards, Martin; Mackas, David L.; Runge, Jeffrey A.; Thomas, Andrew C. (Journal of Plankton Research, 2010)
Increasing availability and extent of biological ocean time series (from both in situ and satellite data) have helped reveal significant phenological variability of marine plankton. The extent to which the range of this variability is modified as a result of climate change is of obvious importance. Here we summarize recent research results on phenology of both phytoplankton and zooplankton. We suggest directions to better quantify and monitor future plankton phenology shifts, including (i) examining the main mode of expected future changes (ecological shifts in timing and spatial distribution to accommodate fixed environmental niches vs. evolutionary adaptation of timing controls to maintain fixed biogeography and seasonality), (ii) broader understanding of phenology at the species and community level (e.g. for zooplankton beyond Calanus and for phytoplankton beyond chlorophyll), (iii) improving and diversifying statistical metrics for indexing timing and trophic synchrony and (iv) improved consideration of spatio-temporal scales and the Lagrangian nature of plankton assemblages to separate time from space changes.

Climate change, extreme events and increased risk of salmonellosis in Maryland, USA: Evidence for coastal vulnerability - Jiang, Chengsheng; Shaw, Kristi S.; Upperman, Crystal R.; Blythe, David; Mitchell, Clifford; Murtugudde, Raghu; Sapkota, Amy R.; Sapkota, Amir (Environment International, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change Salmonellosis Coastal vulnerability El Niño La Niña

Simulation and validation of cisco lethal conditions in Minnesota lakes under past and future climate scenarios using constant survival limits - Jiang, Liping; Fang, Xing (Water, 2016)

Oxythermal habitat parameters and identifying cisco refuge lakes in Minnesota under future climate scenarios using variable benchmark periods - Jiang, Liping; Fang, Xing; Stefan, Heinz G.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Pereira, Donald L. (Ecological Modelling, 2012)
Keywords: Cisco () Climate Climate change Fish habitat Lakes Minnesota Simulations Water quality Water temperature Dissolved oxygen

Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the twenty-first century - Jiang, Xiaoyan; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G. (Journal of Climate, 2013)

Freshwater resources - Jiménez Cisneros, B. E.; Oki, T.; Arnell, N. W.; Benito, G.; Cogley, J. G.; Döll, P.; Jiang, T.; Mwakalila, S. S. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 2014)

Modeling and solving a large-scale generation expansion planning problem under uncertainty - Jin, Shan; Ryan, Sarah M.; Watson, Jean-Paul; Woodruff, David L. (Energy Systems, 2011)
We formulate a generation expansion planning problem to determine the type and quantity of power plants to be constructed over each year of an extended planning horizon, considering uncertainty regarding future demand and fuel prices. Our model is expressed as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program, which we use to compute solutions independently minimizing the expected cost and the Conditional Value-at-Risk; i.e., the risk of significantly larger-than-expected operational costs. We introduce stochastic process models to capture demand and fuel price uncertainty, which are in turn used to generate trees that accurately represent the uncertainty space. Using a realistic problem instance based on the Midwest US, we explore two fundamental, unexplored issues that arise when solving any stochastic generation expansion model. First, we introduce and discuss the use of an algorithm for computing confidence intervals on obtained solution costs, to account for the fact that a finite sample of scenarios was used to obtain a particular solution. Second, we analyze the nature of solutions obtained under different parameterizations of this method, to assess whether the recommended solutions themselves are invariant to changes in costs. The issues are critical for decision makers who seek truly robust recommendations for generation expansion planning.

Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: Implications for economic impact and future change - Jin, Yufang; Goulden, Michael L.; Faivre, Nicolas; Veraverbeke, Sander; Sun, Fengpeng; Hall, Alex; Hand, Michael S.; Hook, Simon; Randerson, James T. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
The area burned by Southern California wildfires has increased in recent decades, with implications for human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem management. Meteorology and fuel structure are universally recognized controllers of wildfire, but their relative importance, and hence the efficacy of abatement and suppression efforts, remains controversial. Southern California’s wildfires can be partitioned by meteorology: fires typically occur either during Santa Ana winds (SA fires) in October through April, or warm and dry periods in June through September (non-SA fires). Previous work has not quantitatively distinguished between these fire regimes when assessing economic impacts or climate change influence. Here we separate five decades of fire perimeters into those coinciding with and without SA winds. The two fire types contributed almost equally to burned area, yet SA fires were responsible for 80% of cumulative 1990–2009 economic losses ($3.1 Billion). The damage disparity was driven by fire characteristics: SA fires spread three times faster, occurred closer to urban areas, and burned into areas with greater housing values. Non-SA fires were comparatively more sensitive to age-dependent fuels, often occurred in higher elevation forests, lasted for extended periods, and accounted for 70% of total suppression costs. An improved distinction of fire type has implications for future projections and management. The area burned in non-SA fires is projected to increase 77% (±43%) by the mid-21st century with warmer and drier summers, and the SA area burned is projected to increase 64% (±76%), underscoring the need to evaluate the allocation and effectiveness of suppression investments.

The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future U.S. rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2 - Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali; Archontoulis, Sotirios V.; Zobel, Zachary; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995–2004 and 2085–2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems.

Engaging supply chains in climate change - Jira, Chonnikarn; Toffel, Michael W. (Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2013)
Suppliers are increasingly being asked to share information about their vulnerability to climate change and their strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Their responses vary widely. We theorize and empirically identify several factors associated with suppliers being especially willing to share this information with buyers, focusing on attributes of the buyers seeking this information and of the suppliers being asked to provide it. We test our hypotheses using data from the Carbon Disclosure Project's Supply Chain Program, a collaboration of multinational corporations requesting such information from thousands of suppliers in 49 countries. We find evidence that suppliers are more likely to share this information when requests from buyers are more prevalent, when buyers appear committed to using the information, when suppliers belong to more profitable industries, and when suppliers are located in countries with greenhouse gas regulations. We find evidence that these factors also influence the comprehensiveness of the information suppliers share and their willingness to share the information publicly.
(Fern)
Keywords: econometric analysis,empirical research,environmental operations,sustainable operations,quality management,supply chain management,risk management

High water forces Upper Mississippi River closure - JOC (Journal of Commerce, 2013)

North American rail traffic slips - JOC (Journal of Commerce, 2013)

Biodiversidad de Puerto Rico: Vertebrados terrestres y ecosistemas - Joglar, Rafael L. (Serie de historia natural, 2005)

Drought-induced amplification of local and regional West Nile virus infection rates in New Jersey - Johnson, B. J.; Sukhdeo, M. V. K. (Journal of Medical Entomology, 2013)
Ch4, 7

Drought costs residents thousands - Johnson, Chris (The Colorado County [TX] Citizen, 2014)

Fiddler on the roof: A northern range extension for the marsh fiddler crab Uca Pugnax - Johnson, David Samuel (Journal of Crustacean Biology, 2014)
A northern range extension is presented here for the marsh fiddler crab Uca pugnax (Smith, 1870). In summer 2014, adult crabs were found as far north as Hampton, New Hampshire (42° 55′ 27″ N, 70° 49′ 13″W), which is 80 km north of its previously established northern limit determined in 2003. Thus, the mean annual northern movement of U. pugnax is currently $$7.2\,{\rm km \ year}^{-1}$$. I hypothesize that crabs recruited to the most northern sites during 2012 or 2013 when ocean temperatures were up to 1.3°C higher than the average of the previous decade. In a scenario of continued warming oceans associated with climate change, the range of U. pugnax is thus predicted to continue to extend northward. Given that fiddler crabs are ecosystem engineers affecting coastal wetland productivity, biogeochemistry and sediment structure, the introduction of this species into northern salt marshes may have consequences for marsh structure and function.

The savory swimmer swims north: A northern range extension of the blue crab Callinectes Sapidus? - Johnson, David Samuel (Journal of Crustacean Biology, 2015)
Worldwide, climate-change is shifting species distributions poleward. Here I present recent (2012-2014) observations of the blue crab, Callinectes sapidusRathbun, 1896, in the Gulf of Maine (GoM), north of its historical range of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. To test the hypothesis of a climate-driven range expansion, I examined near-surface ocean temperatures. On average, ocean temperatures in the GoM in summer 2012 and 2013 were up to $$1.3^°{\rm{C}}$$ higher than the average of the previous decade, suggesting that warmer waters may have promoted the recruitment of C. sapidus to the GoM. Previous ephemeral populations of C. sapidus in the Gulf of Maine have been reported since the 1860s. Recent observations and continued warming in the northwest Atlantic may signal a permanent poleward expansion of C. sapidus into the GoM. If so, then a key goal for ecologists and managers will be to understand the effect of C. sapidus on GoM food-webs and fisheries.
10.1163/1937240X-00002293

Nitrous oxide emission and soil carbon sequestration from herbaceous perennial biofuel feedstocks - Johnson, Jane M. F.; Barbour, Nancy W. (Soil Science Society of America Journal, 2016)
Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and big bluestem (Andropogon gerdardii Vitman) are potential bioenergy feedstocks. Perennial grasses managed as bioenergy feedstock require nitrogenous inputs, which can cause N2O emission and, thereby, alter their effectiveness to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. Few studies have measured N2O emission from perennial grasses managed as feedstock. The objectives of this study were to compare N2O flux and soil organic C (SOC) storage between (i) grasses with legume companion crops or with nitrogenous fertilizer, (ii) two grass harvest times (autumn and spring), and (iii) perennial systems and corn (Zea maize L.)–soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] (C–S) rotation, all without tillage. Nitrous oxide flux was measured from May 2009 to May 2012, and SOC was measured in 2000, 2006, and 2011. Big bluestem–clover (Dalea) and switchgrass–clover treatments had dramatically reduced annual N2O emissions and yield-scaled emissions compared with the respective grasses with urea fertilizer. Cumulative N2O emission was 14 to 40% greater in the big bluestem-spring and switchgrass-spring treatments compared with respective autumn-harvested treatments. The average cumulative emission in fertilized big bluestem and switchgrass treatments (18.5 kg N2O-N ha-1) exceeded that of the C–S rotation (12.7 kg N2O-N ha-1). The emission factor (EF) for fertilized grasses averaged 2.5%, corn averaged 1.05%, and C–S rotation averaged 1.9%. The SOC storage by perennial grasses was limited to 0 to 5 cm and thus may not be adequate to offset N2O emission. Nitrogen management refinement is recommended for herbaceous perennials to optimize biomass production and minimize N2O emission.

Crop residue mass needed to maintain soil organic carbon levels: Can it be determined? - Johnson, Jane M. F.; Novak, Jeff M.; Varvel, Gary E.; Stott, Diane E.; Osborne, Shannon L.; Karlen, Douglas L.; Lamb, John A.; Baker, John; Adler, Paul R. (BioEnergy Research, 2014)
Corn’s (Zea mays L.) stover is a potential nonfood, herbaceous bioenergy feedstock. A vital aspect of utilizing stover for bioenergy production is to establish sustainable harvest criteria that avoid exacerbating soil erosion or degrading soil organic carbon (SOC) levels. Our goal is to empirically estimate the minimum residue return rate required to sustain SOC levels at numerous locations and to identify which macroscale factors affect empirical estimates. Minimum residue return rate is conceptually useful, but only if the study is of long enough duration and a relationship between the rate of residue returned and the change in SOC can be measured. About one third of the Corn Stover Regional Partnership team (Team) sites met these criteria with a minimum residue return rate of 3.9 ± 2.18 Mg stover ha−1 yr−1, n = 6. Based on the Team and published corn-based data (n = 35), minimum residue return rate was 6.38 ± 2.19 Mg stover ha−1 yr−1, while including data from other cropping systems (n = 49), the rate averaged 5.74 ± 2.36 Mg residue ha−1 yr−1. In broad general terms, keeping about 6 Mg residue ha−1 yr−1 maybe a useful generic rate as a point of discussion; however, these analyses refute that a generic rate represents a universal target on which to base harvest recommendations at a given site. Empirical data are needed to calibrate, validate, and refine process-based models so that valid sustainable harvest rate guidelines are provided to producers, industry, and action agencies.

Dietary intake of Alaska Native people in two regions and implications for health: The Alaska Native Dietary and Subsistence Food Assessment Project - Johnson, Jennifer S.; Nobmann, Elizabeth D.; Asay, Elvin; Lanier, Anne P. (International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 2009)

Modeling streamflow and water quality sensitivity to climate change and urban development in 20 U.S. watersheds - Johnson, T.; Butcher, J.; Deb, D.; Faizullabhoy, M.; Hummel, P.; Kittle, J.; McGinnis, S.; Mearns, L. O.; Nover, D.; Parker, A.; Sarkar, S.; Srinivasan, R.; et al. (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2015)
Keywords: climate change urban and residential development streamflow water quality sensitivity assessment Soil and Water Assessment Tool

Shaktoolik, Alaska: Climate Change Adaptation for an At-Risk Community. Adaptation Plan - Johnson, Terry; Gray, Glenn (Alaska Sea Grant, 2014)

Vulnerability of northern prairie wetlands to climate change - Johnson, W. Carter; Millett, Bruce V.; Gilmanov, Tagir; Voldseth, Richard A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Naugle, David E. (BioScience, 2005)

Climate change effects on prairie pothole wetlands: Findings from a twenty-five year numerical modeling project - Johnson, W. Carter; Poiani, Karen A. (Wetlands, 2016)
This paper reviews the findings of a 25-year project (1990–2015) that has examined the potential effects of climate change on the vegetation structure, hydrologic function, and biodiversity of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America. The numerical modeling component of the project developed in phases, beginning with the building of a single basin model (WETSIM), followed by a multiple-basin model (WETLANDSCAPE-WLS), and ending with applications of a comprehensive WLS model to specific wetland issues: ecological thresholds and early detection of effects. Coincident with model development was the establishment of a long-term wetland monitoring field site (Orchid Meadows) that includes 18 years of continuous surface and groundwater data on a wetland complex. Also during the project, an intensive study of the historic climate of the PPR was conducted. Model simulations support the following conclusions: prairie wetlands are highly sensitive to climate change; a warmer climate without more precipitation will shrink the effective wetland area of the PPR and reduce waterfowl habitat; strong climatic gradients across the PPR, especially the strong east to west decline in precipitation, complicate the response of PPR wetlands to climate change and approaches to mitigation.

Prairie wetland complexes as landscape functional units in a changing climate - Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Voldseth, Richard A.; Millett, Bruce; Naugle, David E.; Tulbure, Mirela; Carroll, Rosemary W. H.; Tracy, John; Olawsky, Craig (BioScience, 2010)

Estimated global mortality attributable to smoke from landscape fires - Johnston, F.H.; Henderson, S.B.; Chen, Y.; Randerson, J.T.; Marlier, M.; DeFries, R.S.; Kinney, P.; Bowman, D.M.J.S.; Brauer, M. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2012)

Impacts and adaptation for climate change in urban forests - Johnston, M. (Fires, Storms and Pests--Crises in Our Urban Forests (6th Canadian Urban Forest Conference), 2004)
Keywords: added by ERG

Climatic context and ecological implications of summer fog decline in the coast redwood region - Johnstone, J.A.; Dawson, T.E. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2010)

Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900–2012 - Johnstone, James A.; Mantua, Nathan J. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014)
Over the last century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ∼0.5–1 °C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST, and SAT, this study investigates northeast (NE) Pacific coupled atmosphere–ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with the strongest trends observed from 1910–1920 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900–2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon, and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural internally generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012 and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.

Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013 - Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Freeborn, Patrick H.; Holden, Zachary A.; Brown, Timothy J.; Williamson, Grant J.; Bowman, David M. J. S. (Nature Communications, 2015)

Towards a more consistent treatment of land-use change within climate assessment - Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James (Impacts World 2013 : International Conference on Climate Change Effects, 2013)

Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change - Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison; Chini, Louise P.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George C.; et al. (Journal of Climate, 2013)
Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and an alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-Use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover than the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W m−2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate because of increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a twenty-first-century warming trend that is 0.5°C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W m−2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing is uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCPs but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.
Keywords: Atmosphere-land interaction,Climate change,Feedback,Forcing,Regional effects,Coupled models

Future population exposure to US heat extremes - Jones, Bryan; O’Neill, Brian C.; McDaniel, Larry; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Tebaldi, Claudia (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change - Jones, Bryan; Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian C.; Oleson, Keith; Gao, Jing (Climatic Change, 2018)
Heat waves are among the most dangerous climate-related hazards, and they are projected to increase in frequency and intensity over the coming century. Exposure to heat waves is a function of the spatial distribution of physical events and the corresponding population distribution, and future exposure will be impacted by changes in both distributions. Here, we project future exposure using ensembles of climate projections that account for the urban heat island effect, for two alternative emission scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5) and two alternative population and urbanization (SSP3/SSP5) outcomes. We characterize exposure at the global, regional, and grid-cell level; estimate the exposure that would be avoided by mitigating future levels of climate change (to RCP4.5); and quantify the dependence of exposure on population outcomes. We find that climate change is a stronger determinant of exposure than demographic change in these scenarios, with a global reduction in exposure of over 50% under a lower emissions pathway, while a slower population growth pathway leads to roughly 30% less exposure. Exposure reduction varies at the regional level, but in almost all cases, the RCP remains more influential than the SSP. Uncertainty in outcomes is dominated by inter-annual variability in heat extremes (relative to variability across initial condition ensemble members). For some regions, this variability is large enough that a reduction in annual exposure is not guaranteed in each individual year by following the lower forcing pathway. Finally, we find that explicitly considering the urban heat island effect and separate urban and rural heat extremes and populations can substantially influence results, generally increasing projected exposure.

Modern thermokarst lake dynamics in the continuous permafrost zone, northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska - Jones, B. M.; Grosse, G.; Arp, C. D.; Jones, M. C.; Walter Anthony, K. M.; Romanovsky, V. E. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011)
Keywords: Arctic carbon cycle drained basin lakes remote sensing thermokarst 0428 Carbon cycling 0708 Thermokarst 0710 Periglacial processes 0746 Lakes 0758 Remote sensing

Fire behavior, weather, and burn severity of the 2007 Anaktuvuk River tundra fire, North Slope, Alaska - Jones, Benjamin M.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Jandt, Randi; Abatzoglou, John T.; Urban, Frank; Arp, Christopher D. (Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 2009)

Climate change in the western United States growing regions - Jones, G.V. (Acta Hort. (ISHS). VII International Symposium on Grapevine Physiology and Biotechnology, 2005)

Harnessing nature to help people adapt to climate change - Jones, H.P.; Hole, D.G.; Zavaleta, E.S. (Nature Climate Change, 2012)

Umatilla River Vision - Jones, Krista L.; Poole, Geoffrey C.; Quaempts, Eric J.; O’Daniel, Scott; Beechie, Tim (Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, Department of Natural Resources (DNR), 2008)

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada - Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A. (Climatic Change, 2017)
Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier onset and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: Models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help - Jones, Michael L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Zhao, Yingming; Stockwell, Jason D. (Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2006)

Climate change impacts on freshwater recreational fishing in the United States - Jones, Russell; Travers, Constance; Rodgers, Charles; Lazar, Brian; English, Eric; Lipton, Joshua; Vogel, Jason; Strzepek, Kenneth; Martinich, Jeremy (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2013)
We estimated the biological and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries in the United States (U.S.). Changes in stream temperatures, flows, and the spatial extent of suitable thermal habitats for fish guilds were modeled for the coterminous U.S. using a range of projected changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). Based on modeled shifts in available thermal habitat for fish guilds, we estimated potential economic impacts associated with changes in freshwater recreational fishing using a national-scale economic model of recreational fishing behavior. In general, the spatial distribution of coldwater fisheries is projected to contract, being replaced by warm/cool water and high-thermally tolerant, lower recreational priority (i.e., “rough”) fisheries. Changes in thermal habitat suitability become more pronounced under higher emissions scenarios and at later time periods. Under the highest GHG emissions scenario, by year 2100 habitat for coldwater fisheries is projected to decline by roughly 50 % and be largely confined to mountainous areas in the western U.S. and very limited areas of New England and the Appalachians. The economic model projects a decline in coldwater fishing days ranging from 1.25 million in 2030 to 6.42 million by 2100 and that the total present value of national economic losses to freshwater recreational fishing from 2009 to 2100 could range from $81 million to $6.4 billion, depending on the emissions scenario and the choice of discount rate.

Climate change impacts on freshwater recreational fishing in the United States - Jones, Russell; Travers, Constance; Rodgers, Charles; Lazar, Brian; English, Eric; Lipton, Joshua; Vogel, Jason; Strzepek, Kenneth; Martinich, Jeremy (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2013)
We estimated the biological and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries in the United States (U.S.). Changes in stream temperatures, flows, and the spatial extent of suitable thermal habitats for fish guilds were modeled for the coterminous U.S. using a range of projected changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). Based on modeled shifts in available thermal habitat for fish guilds, we estimated potential economic impacts associated with changes in freshwater recreational fishing using a national-scale economic model of recreational fishing behavior. In general, the spatial distribution of coldwater fisheries is projected to contract, being replaced by warm/cool water and high-thermally tolerant, lower recreational priority (i.e., “rough”) fisheries. Changes in thermal habitat suitability become more pronounced under higher emissions scenarios and at later time periods. Under the highest GHG emissions scenario, by year 2100 habitat for coldwater fisheries is projected to decline by roughly 50 % and be largely confined to mountainous areas in the western U.S. and very limited areas of New England and the Appalachians. The economic model projects a decline in coldwater fishing days ranging from 1.25 million in 2030 to 6.42 million by 2100 and that the total present value of national economic losses to freshwater recreational fishing from 2009 to 2100 could range from $81 million to $6.4 billion, depending on the emissions scenario and the choice of discount rate.

Foundations for decision making - Jones, R. N.; Patwardhan, A.; Cohen, S. J.; Dessai, S.; Lammel, A.; Lempert, R. J.; Mirza, M. M. Q.; von Storch, H. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014)

The occurrence, abundance, phylogeny and virulence potential of pathogenic Vibrio species in New Hampshire shellfish waters - Jones, Steve; Schuster, Brian; Mahoney, Jenny; Yu, Jong; Ellis, Crystal; Cooper, Vaughn; Whistler, Cheryl (103rd Annual Meeting, National Shellfisheries Association, 2011)
Abstract in Journal of Shellfish Research, v.30, n.2, p.519

Spatial and seasonal variations in aridification across southwest North America - Jones, Shannon M.; Gutzler, David S. (Journal of Climate, 2016)
Southwestern North America (SWNA) is projected to become drier in the twenty-first century as both precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) rates change with increasing greenhouse gas concentration. The authors diagnose the relative contributions of changes in P and E to the local surface moisture balance (P − E) in cold and warm halves of the year across SWNA. Trends in P − E vary spatially between the arid southern subregion (mostly northern Mexico) and the more temperate northern subregion (southwest United States), although both subregions exhibit a negative trend in P − E (trending toward more arid conditions) in CMIP5 projections for the twenty-first century. The P − E trend is biggest in the cold season, when much of the base flow to rivers in the southwest United States is generated. The downward trend in cold season P − E across SWNA is caused primarily by increasing E in the north and decreasing P in the south. Decreasing P is the primary contributor to modest warm season drying trends in both northern and southern subregions. Also, P accounts for most of the interannual variability in SWNA P − E and is strongly correlated with modes of oceanic natural variability during the cold season. SWNA aridification is therefore most readily distinguished from the region’s large natural climate variability in the cold season in the northern subregion, where the projected temperature-driven increase in E is greater than the projected decrease in P.
Keywords: Geographic location/entity,North America,Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Climate change,Water budget,Models and modeling,Climate models,Variability,Interannual variability,Trends

Analysis of the Barriers to Renewable Energy Development on Tribal Lands - Jones, Thomas Elisha (School of Natural Resources and the Environment, 2016)

Identifying Barriers and Pathways for Success for Renewable Energy Development on American Indian Lands - Jones, Thomas Elisha; Necefer, Len Edward (Sandia National Laboratories, 2016)

Effects of the 1978 freeze on native plants of Sonora, Mexico - Jones, Warren D. (Desert Plants, 1979)

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: A multi-model analysis - Joos, F.; Roth, R.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Peters, G. P.; Enting, I. G.; von Bloh, W.; Brovkin, V.; Burke, E. J.; Eby, M.; Edwards, N. R.; Friedrich, T.; Frölicher, T. L.; et al. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2013)

Wetlands as sinks for reactive nitrogen at continental and global scales: A meta-analysis - Jordan, Stephen J.; Stoffer, Jonathan; Nestlerode, Janet A. (Ecosystems, 2011)
Wetlands support physical and ecological functions that result in valuable services to society, including removal of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from surface water and groundwater. We compiled published data from wetland studies worldwide to estimate total Nr removal and to evaluate factors that influence removal rates. Over several orders of magnitude in wetland area and Nr loading rates, there is a positive, near-linear relationship between Nr removal and Nr loading. The linear model (null hypothesis) explains the data better than either a model of declining Nr removal efficiency with increasing Nr loading, or a Michaelis–Menten (saturation) model. We estimate that total Nr removal by major classes of wetlands in the contiguous U.S. is approximately 20–21% of the total anthropogenic load of Nr to the region. Worldwide, Nr removal by wetlands is roughly 17% of anthropogenic Nr inputs. Historical loss of 50% of native wetland area suggests an equivalent loss of Nr removal capacity. Expanded protection and large-scale restoration of wetlands should be considered in strategies to re-balance the global nitrogen cycle and mitigate the negative consequences of excess Nr loading.

Reorganization of vegetation, hydrology and soil carbon after permafrost degradation across heterogeneous boreal landscapes - Jorgenson, M. Torre; Harden, Jennifer; Kanevskiy, Mikhail; O'Donnell, Jonathan; Wickland, Kim; Ewing, Stephanie; Manies, Kristen; Zhuang, Qianlai; Shur, Yuri; Striegl, Robert; Koch, Josh (Environmental Research Letters, 2013)

Permafrost characteristics of Alaska - Jorgenson, T.; Yoshikawa, K.; Kanevskiy, M.; Shur, Y.; Romanovsky, V.; Marchenko, S.; Grosse, G.; Brown, J.; Jones, B. (Extended Abstracts of the Ninth International Conference on Permafrost, June 29-July 3, 2008, 2008)
Keywords: forestry; permafrost

Seasonal speedup along the western flank of the Greenland Ice Sheet - Joughin, Ian; Das, Sarah B.; King, Matt A.; Smith, Ben E.; Howat, Ian M.; Moon, Twila (Science, 2008)
It has been widely hypothesized that a warmer climate in Greenland would increase the volume of lubricating surface meltwater reaching the ice-bedrock interface, accelerating ice flow and increasing mass loss. We have assembled a data set that provides a synoptic-scale view, spanning ice-sheet to outlet-glacier flow, with which to evaluate this hypothesis. On the ice sheet, these data reveal summer speedups (50 to 100%) consistent with, but somewhat larger than, earlier observations. The relative speedup of outlet glaciers, however, is far smaller (<15%). Furthermore, the dominant seasonal influence on Jakobshavn Isbrae's flow is the calving front's annual advance and retreat. With other effects producing outlet-glacier speedups an order of magnitude larger, seasonal melt's influence on ice flow is likely confined to those regions dominated by ice-sheet flow.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/320/5877/781.full.pdf

Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica - Joughin, Ian; Smith, Benjamin E.; Medley, Brooke (Science, 2014)
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is particularly vulnerable to ocean warming-induced collapse. The Thwaites Glacier of West Antarctica is one of the largest WAIS regional contributors to sea level rise, and has been considered to be potentially unstable for many years. Joughin et al. (p. 735) used a combination of a numerical model and observations of its recent geometry and movement to investigate the stability of the Thwaites Glacier. The glacier has already entered the early stages of collapse, and rapid and irreversible collapse is likely in the next 200 to 1000 years. Resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a numerical model, we investigated the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way. Our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates. Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st century but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (>1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900 years.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/344/6185/735.full.pdf

Climate change and North American rangelands: Assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies - Joyce, Linda A.; Briske, David D.; Brown, Joel R.; Polley, H. Wayne; McCarl, Bruce A.; Bailey, Derek W. (Rangeland Ecology & Management, 2013)
Keywords: carbon sequestration land change science social-ecological systems social learning sustainability transformation

Ch. 7: Forests - Joyce, Linda A.; Running, Steven W.; Breshears, David D.; Dale, Virginia H.; Malmsheimer, Robert W.; Sampson, R. Neil; Sohngen, Brent; Woodall, Christopher W. (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Long-term changes in migration timing of adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) at the southern edge of the species distribution - Juanes, Francis; Gephard, Stephen; Beland, Kenneth F. (Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2004)

Case Studies of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure in Coastal California: A Component of Identification of Natural Infrastructure Options for Adapting to Sea Level Rise (California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment) - Judge, Jenna; Newkirk, Sarah; Leo, Kelly; Heady, Walter; Hayden, Maya; Veloz, Sam; Cheng, Tiffany; Battalio, Bob; Ursell, Tara; Small, Mary (The Nature Conservancy, 2017)

Monitoring and managing responses to climate change at the retreating range edge of forest trees - Jump, Alistair S.; Cavin, Liam; Hunter, Peter D. (Journal of Environmental Monitoring, 2010)
Rising temperatures and increasing drought severity linked to global climate change are negatively impacting forest growth and function at the equatorial range edge of species distributions. Rapid dieback and range retractions are predicted to occur in many areas as temperatures continue to rise. Despite widespread negative impacts at the ecosystem level, equatorial range edges are not well studied, and their responses to climate change are poorly understood. Effective monitoring of tree responses to climate in these regions is of critical importance in order to predict and manage threats to populations. Remote sensing of impacts on forests can be combined with ground-based assessment of environmental and ecological changes to identify populations most at risk. Modelling may be useful as a 'first-filter' to identify populations of concern but, together with many remote sensing methods, often lacks adequate resolution for application at the range edge. A multidisciplinary approach, combining remote observation with targeted ground-based monitoring of local susceptible and resistant populations, is therefore required. Once at-risk regions have been identified, management can be adapted to reduce immediate risks in priority populations, and promote long-term adaptation to change. However, management to protect forest ecosystem function may be preferable where the maintenance of historical species assemblages is no longer viable.

The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species - Jump, Alistair S.; Mátyás, Csaba; Peñuelas, Josep (Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2009)

Colonization of the Beaufort coastal plain by beaver (Castor canadensis): A response to shrubification of the tundra? - Jung, Thomas S; Frandsen, Jay; Gordon, Danny C; Mossop, David H (Canadian Field-Naturalist, 2016)

Rural coastal community resilience: Assessing a framework in eastern North Carolina - Jurjonas, Matthew; Seekamp, Erin (Ocean & Coastal Management, 2018)
Keywords: Adaptive capacity Sea level rise Saltwater intrusion Natural hazards Flooding

Mesoscale structure of trade wind convection over Puerto Rico: Composite observations and numerical simulation - Jury, Mark R.; Chiao, Sen; Harmsen, Eric W. (Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 2009)
We examine the mesoscale structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), low-level circulation, and trade wind convection over the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico in mid-summer. Shallow afternoon thunderstorms are frequently seen over the western plains of the island. Observational data include automatic weather station measurements, radiosonde profiles, infrared satellite images, and mesoscale reanalysis data with a focus on the summer of 2006. Satellite microwave radar data (TRMM and CloudSat) indicate that island clouds typically extend just above the −20°C level during afternoon hours with reflectivity values reaching 50 dBz. A singular value decomposition of 3-hourly high resolution satellite rainfall maps reveals an island mode. From this a composite is constructed for a group of ten cases. With a Froude number ≈1 the trade winds pass over the mountains and standing vortices and gravity waves are trapped in the meandering wake. The Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km resolution with 51 vertical layers is used to simulate the short-lived thunderstorms for two cases: 27 June and 20 July 2006. The model correctly locates the convective cells that develop between 1400 and 1700 LST. The shallow afternoon thunderstorms are triggered by surface heat fluxes, confluent sea breezes and a mountain wake. Recommendations for enhanced observations are given.

Trends in oxygen content 1911–1984 and occurrence of benthic mortality in the northern Adriatic Sea - Justić, Dubravko; Legović, Tarzan; Rottini-Sandrini, Laura (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 1987)
Keywords: oxygen content long-term changes surface bottom regression analysis benthic organisms Adriatic Sea

Nature-based solutions to climate change adaptation in urban areas—Linkages between science, policy and practice - Kabisch, Nadja; Korn, Horst; Stadler, Jutta; Bonn, Aletta (Nature-Based Solutions to Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Areas: Linkages between Science, Policy and Practice, 2017)
Climate change presents one of the greatest challenges to society today. Effects on nature and people are first experienced in cities as cities form microcosms with extreme temperature gradients, and by now, about half of the human population globally lives in urban areas. Climate change has significant impact on ecosystem functioning and well-being of people. Climatic stress leads to a decrease in the distribution of typical native species and influences society through health-related effects and socio-economic impacts by increased numbers of heat waves, droughts and flooding events. In addition to climate change, urbanisation and the accompanying increases in the number and size of cities are impacting ecosystems with a number of interlinked pressures. These pressures include loss and degradation of natural areas, soil sealing and the densification of built-up areas, which pose additional significant challenges to ecosystem functionality, the provision of ecosystem services and human well-being in cities around the world. However, nature-based solutions have the potential to counteract these pressures. Nature-based solutions (NBS) can foster and simplify implementation actions in urban landscapes by taking into account the services provided by nature. They include provision of urban green such as parks and street trees that may ameliorate high temperature in cities or regulate air and water flows or the allocation of natural habitat space in floodplains that may buffer impacts of flood events. Architectural solutions for buildings, such as green roofs and wall installations, may reduce temperature and save energy. This book brings together experts from science, policy and practice to provide an overview of our current state of knowledge on the effectiveness and implementation of nature-based solutions and their potential to the provision of ecosystem services, for climate change adaptation and co-benefits in urban areas. Scientific evidence to climate change adaptation is presented, and a further focus is on the potential of nature-based approaches to accelerate urban sustainability transitions and create additional, multiple health and social benefits. The book discusses socio-economic implications in relation to socio-economic equity, fairness and justice considerations when implementing NBS.

Increasing flexibility in rangeland management during drought - Kachergis, Emily; Derner, Justin D.; Cutts, Bethany B.; Roche, Leslie M.; Eviner, Valerie T.; Lubell, Mark N.; Tate, Kenneth W. (Ecosphere, 2014)
Keywords: adaptive capacity agricultural policy climate variability ecosystem services fragmentation livestock production mixed-grass prairie ranchers resilience sagebrush steppe Wyoming, USA

Interaction effects of temperature and ozone on lung function and markers of systemic inflammation, coagulation, and fibrinolysis: A crossover study of healthy young volunteers - Kahle, Juliette J.; Neas, Lucas M.; Devlin, Robert B.; Case, Martin W.; Schmitt, Michael T.; Madden, Michael C.; Diaz-Sanchez, David (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2015)

Community capitals as community resilience to climate change: Conceptual connections - Kais, Shaikh Mohammad; Islam, Md Saidul (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2016)

Ecosystem restoration strengthens pollination network resilience and function - Kaiser-Bunbury, Christopher N.; Mougal, James; Whittington, Andrew E.; Valentin, Terence; Gabriel, Ronny; Olesen, Jens M.; Blüthgen, Nico (Nature, 2017)

Tourism, climate change and adaptation: a review - Kaján, Eva; Saarinen, Jarkko (Current Issues in Tourism, 2013)

Making climate science accessible in Toledo: The linked boundary chain approach - Kalafatis, Scott E.; Grace, Ashlee; Gibbons, Elizabeth (Climate Risk Management, 2015)
Keywords: Boundary organizations Boundary chains Usable science Mainstreaming climate change adaptation Policy entrepreneurs

The emergence of climate change policy entrepreneurs in urban regions - Kalafatis, Scott E.; Lemos, Maria Carmen (Regional Environmental Change, 2017)
The development of climate change policy in cities has been closely tied to the efforts of particular individuals, policy entrepreneurs. However, there is still much we do not know about the conditions underlying the emergence and spread of policy entrepreneurship both generally and in support of climate change policies specifically. In this paper, we shed light on these issues using data from 371 mid-sized cities throughout the Great Lakes region of the USA. Building upon scholarship from the public choice literature, we explore the role that fragmentation, that is, the number of independent but connected governmental units both within the city itself as well as in the city’s regional metropolitan or micropolitan area play in explaining the emergence of climate entrepreneurship. We show that not only does fragmentation at both of these levels help predict the emergence of climate change entrepreneurs in individual cities, but also exchanges between these levels could drive the rapid development of policy entrepreneurship and related policy innovations throughout urban systems.

Hydro-climatic change, conflict and security - Kallis, Giorgos; Zografos, Christos (Climatic Change, 2014)
Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of water-related hazards on human populations. This has generated security concerns and calls for urgent policy action. However, the simplified narrative that links climate change to security via water and violent conflict is wanting. First, it is not confirmed by empirical evidence. Second, it ignores the varied character and implications of hydro-climatic hazards, the multi-faceted nature of conflict and adaptive action, and crucial intricacies of security. Integrating for the first time research and findings from diverse disciplines, we provide a more nuanced picture of the climate-water-security nexus. We consider findings from the transboundary waters, armed conflict, vulnerability, and political ecology literatures and specify the implications and priorities for policy relevant research. Although the social effects of future hydro-climatic change cannot be safely predicted, there is a good understanding of the factors that aggravate risks to social wellbeing. To reduce vulnerability, pertinent democratic and social/civil security institutions should be strengthened where they exist, and promoted where they are still absent.

Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate - Kalnay, Eugenia; Cai, Ming (Nature, 2003)

Changes in the low flow regime over the eastern United States (1962–2011): Variability, trends, and attributions - Kam, Jonghun; Sheffield, Justin (Climatic Change, 2016)
We examine trends and variability in low flows over the eastern U.S. (S. Carolina to Maine) and their attribution in a changing climate. We select 149 out of 4878 USGS stations over the eastern U.S., taking into account data availability and minimal direct management. Annual 7-day low flows (Q7) are computed from the series of daily streamflow records for 1962–2011 and compared to an antecedent precipitation (AP) index calculated over the corresponding basin for each station. In general, a north–south (increasing-decreasing) dipole pattern in low flow trends is associated with trends in AP. The exception is in the southern part of the study area including Virginia and the Carolinas, where moderate increasing trends in AP may have been offset by water withdrawals and increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET) as driven by increasing temperature and vapor pressure deficit. A principal component analysis (PCA) of Q7 and AP indicates that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific North America (PNA) pattern show statistically significant correlations for Q7 at 1 and 2 month lead time, respectively, via large-scale pressure patterns. Our findings suggest that the inter-annual variability of low flows has increased due to significant anti-correlation between the NAO and PNA during recent decades, and the future risk of low flow extremes may be further enhanced with temperature driven increases in PET and persistence of the multi-decadal relationship between NAO and PNA.

Investing in Water: Comparing Utility Finances and Economic Concerns Across U.S. Cities - Kane, Joseph (Brookings Institution, 2016)

Improving yield potential in crops under elevated CO2: Integrating the photosynthetic and nitrogen utilization efficiencies - Kant, Surya; Seneweera, Saman; Rodin, Joakim; Materne, Michael; Burch, David; Rothstein, Steven; Spangenberg, German (Frontiers in Plant Science, 2012)
Increasing crop productivity to meet burgeoning human food demand is challenging under changing environmental conditions. Since industrial revolution atmospheric CO2 levels have linearly increased. Developing crop varieties with increased utilisation of CO2 for photosynthesis is an urgent requirement to cope with the irreversible rise of atmospheric CO2 and achieve higher food production. The primary effects of elevated CO2 levels in most crop plants, particularly C3 plants include increased biomass accumulation, although initial stimulation of net photosynthesis rate is only temporal and plants fail to sustain the maximal stimulation, a phenomenon known as photosynthesis acclimation. Despite this acclimation, grain yield is known to marginally increase under elevated CO2. The yield potential of C3 crops is limited by their capacity to exploit sufficient carbon. The “C fertilization” through elevated CO2 levels could potentially be used for substantial yield increase. Rubisco is the rate-limiting enzyme in photosynthesis and its activity is largely affected by atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen availability. In addition, maintenance of the C/N ratio is pivotal for various growth and development processes in plants governing yield and seed quality. For maximising the benefits of elevated CO2, raising plant nitrogen pools will be necessary as part of maintaining an optimal C/N balance. In this review, we discuss potential causes for the stagnation in yield increases under elevated CO2 levels and explore possibilities to overcome this limitation by improved photosynthetic capacity and enhanced nitrogen use efficiency. Opportunities of engineering nitrogen uptake, assimilatory, and responsive genes are also discussed that could ensure optimal nitrogen allocation towards expanding source and sink tissues. This might avert photosynthetic acclimation partially or completely and drive for improved crop production under elevated CO2 levels.
Keywords: Photosynthesis,nitrogen use efficiency,Rubisco,Carbon,elevated CO2,yield

Transforming the Nation's Electricity System: The Second Installment of the Quadrennial Energy Review (QER 1.2) - Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Naz, Bibi S.; Martínez, Rocio Uría; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; Jager, Yetta; Samu, Nicole M.; Sale, Michael J. (U.S. Department of Energy. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2016)

Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron - Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie (Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2015)
Keywords: Bioenergetics model Climate change Great Lakes Yellow perch Lake whitefish Thermal guild

Houston’s Floodwaters are tainted, testing shows - Kaplan, Sheila; Healy, Jack (New York Times, 2017)

Can Sustainable Hospitals Help Bend the Health Care Cost Curve - Kaplan, Susan; Sadler, Blair; Little, Kevin; Franz, Calvin; Orris, Peter (The Commonwealth Fund, 2012)

Ocean pH time-series and drivers of variability along the northern Channel Islands, California, USA - Kapsenberg, Lydia; Hofmann, Gretchen E. (Limnology and Oceanography, 2016)

An indigenous people's right to environmental self-determination: Native Hawaiians and the struggle against climate change devastation - Kapua‘ala Sproat, D. (Stanford Environmental Law Journal, 2016)

Disaster preparedness and resilience for rural communities - Kapucu, Naim; Hawkins, Christopher V.; Rivera, Fernando I. (Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy, 2013)
Keywords: emergency management rural communities capacity building sustainability networks disaster resilience

Subsidence along the Atlantic Coast of North America: Insights from GPS and late Holocene relative sea level data - Karegar, Makan A.; Dixon, Timothy H.; Engelhart, Simon E. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: Holocene relative sea level GPS glacial isostatic adjustment Atlantic Coast of North America groundwater depletion 1240 Satellite geodesy: results 1641 Sea level change 1829 Groundwater hydrology 4217 Coastal processes 9350 North America

Climate change and dryland wheat systems in the US Pacific Northwest - Karimi, T.; Stöckle, C. O.; Higgins, S.; Nelson, R. (Agricultural Systems, 2018)
Keywords: Global climate model Representative concentration pathway Agroecological zone

Ecosystem structure and dynamics in the North Pacific subtropical gyre: New views of an old ocean - Karl, David M.; Church, Matthew J. (Ecosystems, 2017)
The North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) is one of the largest biomes on Earth. It has a semi-enclosed surface area of about 2 × 107 km2 and mean depth of nearly 5 km and includes a broad range of habitats from warm, light-saturated, nutrient-starved surface waters to the cold, nutrient-rich abyss. Microorganisms are found throughout the water column and are vertically stratified by their genetically determined metabolic capabilities that establish physiological tolerances to temperature, light, pressure, as well as organic and inorganic growth substrates. Despite the global significance of the NPSG for energy and matter transformations and its role in the oceanic carbon cycle, it is grossly undersampled and not well characterized with respect to ecosystem structure and dynamics. Since October 1988, interdisciplinary teams of scientists from the University of Hawaii and around the world have been investigating the NPSG ecosystem at Station ALOHA (A Long-term Oligotrophic Habitat Assessment), a site chosen to be representative of this expansive oligotrophic habitat, with a focus on microbial processes and biogeochemistry. At the start of this comprehensive field study, the NPSG was thought to be a “Climax” community with a relatively stable plankton community structure and relatively low variability in key microbiological rates and processes. Now, after nearly three decades of observations and experimentation we present a new view of this old ocean, one that highlights temporal variability in ecosystem processes across a broad range of scales from diel to decadal and beyond. Our revised paradigm is built on the strength of high-quality time-series observations, on insights from the application of state-of-the-art –omics techniques (genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics) and, more recently, the discoveries of novel microorganisms and metabolic processes. Collectively, these efforts have led to a new understanding of trophic dynamics and population interactions in the NPSG. A comprehensive understanding of the environmental controls on microbial rates and processes, from genomes to biomes, will be required to inform the scientific community and the public at large about the potential impacts of human-induced climate change. The pace of new discovery, and the importance of integrating this new knowledge into conceptual paradigms and predictive models, is an enormous contemporary challenge with great scientific and societal relevance.

Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus - Karl, Thomas R.; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H.; McMahon, James R.; Menne, Matthew J.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Vose, Russell S.; Zhang, Huai-Min (Science, 2015)
Previous analyses of global temperature trends during the first decade of the 21st century seemed to indicate that warming had stalled. This allowed critics of the idea of global warming to claim that concern about climate change was misplaced. Karl et al. now show that temperatures did not plateau as thought and that the supposed warming “hiatus” is just an artifact of earlier analyses. Warming has continued at a pace similar to that of the last half of the 20th century, and the slowdown was just an illusion.Science, this issue p. 1469Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming “hiatus.” Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a “slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/348/6242/1469.full.pdf

U.S. temperature and drought: Recent anomalies and trends - Karl, T.R.; Gleason, B.E.; Menne, M.J.; McMahon, J.R.; Heim, R.R., Jr.; Brewer, M.J.; Kunkel, K.E.; Arndt, D.S.; Privette, J.L.; Bates, J.J.; Groisman, P.Y.; Easterling, D.R. (Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 2012)

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States - Karl, T.R.; Melillo, J.T.; Peterson, T.C. (Cambridge University Press, 2009)

Balancing energy, conservation, and soil health requirements for plant biomass - Karlen, D.L.; Beeler, L.W.; Ong, R.G.; Dale, B.E. (Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2015)

Multilocation corn stover harvest effects on crop yields and nutrient removal - Karlen, Douglas L.; Birrell, Stuart J.; Johnson, Jane M. F.; Osborne, Shannon L.; Schumacher, Thomas E.; Varvel, Gary E.; Ferguson, Richard B.; Novak, Jeff M.; Fredrick, James R.; Baker, John M.; Lamb, John A.; Adler, Paul R.; et al. (BioEnergy Research, 2014)
Corn (Zea mays L.) stover was identified as an important feedstock for cellulosic bioenergy production because of the extensive area upon which the crop is already grown. This report summarizes 239 site-years of field research examining effects of zero, moderate, and high stover removal rates at 36 sites in seven different states. Grain and stover yields from all sites as well as N, P, and K removal from 28 sites are summarized for nine longitude and six latitude bands, two tillage practices (conventional vs no tillage), two stover-harvest methods (machine vs calculated), and two crop rotations {continuous corn (maize) vs corn/soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.]}. Mean grain yields ranged from 5.0 to 12.0 Mg ha−1 (80 to 192 bu ac−1). Harvesting an average of 3.9 or 7.2 Mg ha−1 (1.7 or 3.2 tons ac−1) of the corn stover resulted in a slight increase in grain yield at 57 and 51 % of the sites, respectively. Average no-till grain yields were significantly lower than with conventional tillage when stover was not harvested, but not when it was collected. Plant samples collected between physiological maturity and combine harvest showed that compared to not harvesting stover, N, P, and K removal was increased by 24, 2.7, and 31 kg ha−1, respectively, with moderate (3.9 Mg ha−1) harvest and by 47, 5.5, and 62 kg ha−1, respectively, with high (7.2 Mg ha−1) removal. This data will be useful for verifying simulation models and available corn stover feedstock projections, but is too variable for planning site-specific stover harvest.

Consequences of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for regional temperature and precipitation changes in the contiguous United States - Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S. (PLOS ONE, 2017)
The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is negligible throughout the twenty-first century compared to uncertainties associated with internal variability and model diversity.

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean - Karmalkar, A. V.; Taylor, M. A.; Campbell, J.; Stephenson, T.; New, M.; Centella, A.; Benzanilla, A.; Charlery, J. (Atmósfera, 2013)
Keywords: Climate change Caribbean islands impacts CMIP3 RCM

On the dynamics of the Hadley circulation and subtropical drying - Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C. (Climate Dynamics, 2014)
Changes in subtropical precipitation and the Hadley circulation (HC) are inextricably linked. The original Halley–Hadley model cannot explain certain aspects of the Earth’s meridional circulation in the tropics and is of limited use in understanding regional changes in precipitation. Here, we expand on previous work on the regional and seasonal aspects of the HC, in particular how land–sea temperature contrasts contribute to the strength and width of the HC. We show that the Earth’s HC is well described by three regionally distinct cells along the eastern edges of the major ocean basins with opposite circulations elsewhere. Moreover, comparable summertime hemisphere cells emerge in each region. While it has been recognized that continents modify the meridional pressure gradient, we demonstrate that a substantial part of the Earth’s HC is driven by zonal pressure gradients (ZPGs) that only exist due to continental heating and air–sea interaction. Projected changes in land–sea temperature contrasts in a warming climate due to the relatively low thermal capacity of land will also affect ZPGs and thus HC strength and width, with implications for extremes in hydroclimate and freshwater resources across the increasingly vulnerable subtropics.

A feathered perspective: The influence of sea ice on Arctic marine birds - Karnovsky, Nina J.; Gavrilo, Maria V. (Sea Ice, 2016)
The Arctic marine avifauna is made up of a diverse assemblage of seabirds and sea ducks whose life history traits, foraging strategies and physical adaptations have been wholly shaped by the regular seasonal development of sea ice. During the breeding season, sea ice located close to breeding colonies provides dependable access to energy rich prey at a time when seabirds need to find food locally for themselves and their growing chicks, within a short amount of time. The community of fish and crustaceans associated with sea ice are key prey for many seabirds. Sea ice fosters a productive benthos on which many sea ducks depend. Seabirds and sea ducks also use sea ice as a place to rest while digesting. Changes in the timing of the development of sea ice and shifts in the spatial extent of sea ice can cause a mismatch between prey availability and when seabirds need these prey. In addition, too much sea ice or sea ice in the wrong place can block access to seabird and sea duck prey and can allow mammalian predators access to breeding colonies where they prey on adults, chicks and eggs. Therefore the predictable development of openings in sea ice (polynyas) is critical for seabirds and sea ducks. In some areas of the Arctic, losses of sea ice have caused shifts in seabird and sea duck diets to smaller, less energy rich prey, longer foraging trip lengths, lower reproductive success, and shifts in breeding locations. Ice obligate species such as the Ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea) have suffered population declines. Furthermore, loss of sea ice is having the indirect impact of allowing higher levels of shipping, tourism and resource extraction in areas where seabirds breed and forage. Seabirds and sea ducks are vulnerable to disturbance at their colonies and the potential for oil spills is increasing with losses of sea ice.

Department of Natural Resources Eco-Cultural Resource Management Plan - Karuk Tribe (Karuk Tribe of California, Department of Natural Resources, 2010)

Planning for climate adaptation: Evaluating the changing patterns of social vulnerability and adaptation challenges in three coastal cities - Kashem, Shakil Bin; Wilson, Bev; Van Zandt, Shannon (Journal of Planning Education and Research, 2016)
While recent research has recognized the importance of considering social vulnerability, the changing patterns of social vulnerability within cities and the climate adaptation challenges these shifts pose have yet to receive much attention. In this article, we evaluate the changing patterns of social vulnerability in three coastal cities (Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa) over a thirty-year time period (1980–2010) and integrate neighborhood change theories with theories of social vulnerability to explain those patterns. Through this analysis, we highlight emerging dimensions of vulnerability that warrant attention in the future adaptation efforts of these cities.
Keywords: social vulnerability,climate change adaptation,land use planning,neighborhood change

Income diversification and risk for fishermen - Kasperski, Stephen; Holland, Daniel S. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
Catches and prices from many fisheries exhibit high interannual variability, leading to variability in the income derived by fishery participants. The economic risk posed by this may be mitigated in some cases if individuals participate in several different fisheries, particularly if revenues from those fisheries are uncorrelated or vary asynchronously. We construct indices of gross income diversification from fisheries at the level of individual vessels and find that the income of the current fleet of vessels on the US West Coast and in Alaska is less diverse than at any point in the past 30 y. We also find a dome-shaped relationship between the variability of individuals' income and income diversification, which implies that a small amount of diversification does not reduce income risk but that higher levels of diversification can substantially reduce the variability of income from fishing. Moving from a single fishery strategy to a 50-25-25 split in revenues reduces the expected coefficient of variation of gross revenues between 24% and 65% for the vessels included in this study. The increasing access restrictions in many marine fisheries through license reductions and moratoriums have the potential to limit fishermen's ability to diversify their income risk across multiple fisheries. Catch share programs often result in consolidation initially and may reduce diversification. However, catch share programs also make it feasible for fishermen to build a portfolio of harvest privileges and potentially reduce their income risk. Therefore, catch share programs create both threats and opportunities for fishermen wishing to maintain diversified fishing strategies.

Selected Charts From Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials - Kassel, Kathleen; Melton, Alex; Morrison, Rosanna Mentzer (USDA Economic Research Service, 2017)

Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient - Kates, R.W.; Travis, W.R.; Wilbanks, T.J. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2012)

Effects of natural flooding and manual trapping on the facilitation of invasive crayfish–native amphibian coexistence in a semi-arid perennial stream - Kats, Lee B.; Bucciarelli, Gary; Vandergon, Thomas L.; Honeycutt, Rodney L.; Mattiasen, Evan; Sanders, Arthur; Riley, Seth P. D.; Kerby, Jacob L.; Fisher, Robert N. (Journal of Arid Environments, 2013)
Keywords: Amphibians Conservation Flooding Invasive species Southern California

Impacts of invasive alien marine species on ecosystem services and biodiversity: A pan-European review - Katsanevakis, Stelios; Wallentinus, Inger; Zenetos, Argyro; Leppäkoski, Erkki; Çinar, Melih Ertan; Oztürk, Bayram; Grabowski, Michal; Golani, Daniel; Cardoso, Ana Cristina (Aquatic Invasions, 2014)

Does the novel ecosystem concept provide a framework for practical applications and a path forward? A reply to Miller and Bestelmeyer - Kattan, Gustavo H.; Aronson, James; Murcia, Carolina (Restoration Ecology, 2016)
Keywords: contagion phenomenon ecological restoration emerging ecosystems novelty, prescriptive concepts

Staying afloat: How federal recognition as a Native American tribe will save the residents of Isle de Jean Charles, Louisiana - Katz, Marisa (Loyola Journal of Public Interest Law, 2003)

Statistics of extremes in climate change - Katz, Richard W. (Climatic Change, 2010)
This editorial essay concerns the use (or lack thereof) of the statistics of extremes in climate change research. So far, the statistical theory of extreme values has been primarily applied to climate under the assumption of stationarity. How this theory can be applied in the context of climate change, including implications for the analysis of the economic impacts of extremes, is described. Future research challenges include the statistical modeling of complex extreme events, such as heat waves, and taking into account spatial dependence in the statistical modeling of extremes for fields of climate observations or of numerical model output. Addressing these challenges will require increased collaboration between climate scientists and statisticians.

Statistics of extremes in hydrology - Katz, Richard W.; Parlange, Marc B.; Naveau, Philippe (Advances in Water Resources, 2002)
Keywords: Climate change Covariates Maximum likelihood Statistical downscaling

Are wolves saving Yellowstone's aspen? A landscape‐level test of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade - Kauffman, Matthew J.; Brodie, Jedediah F.; Jules, Erik S. (Ecology, 2010)
Behaviorally mediated trophic cascades (BMTCs) occur when the fear of predation among herbivores enhances plant productivity. Based primarily on systems involving small‐bodied predators, BMTCs have been proposed as both strong and ubiquitous in natural ecosystems. Recently, however, synthetic work has suggested that the existence of BMTCs may be mediated by predator hunting mode, whereby passive (sit‐and‐wait) predators have much stronger effects than active (coursing) predators. One BMTC that has been proposed for a wide‐ranging active predator system involves the reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park, USA, which is thought to be leading to a recovery of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) by causing elk (Cervus elaphus) to avoid foraging in risky areas. Although this BMTC has been generally accepted and highly popularized, it has never been adequately tested. We assessed whether wolves influence aspen by obtaining detailed demographic data on aspen stands using tree rings and by monitoring browsing levels in experimental elk exclosures arrayed across a gradient of predation risk for three years. Our study demonstrates that the historical failure of aspen to regenerate varied widely among stands (last recruitment year ranged from 1892 to 1956), and our data do not indicate an abrupt cessation of recruitment. This pattern of recruitment failure appears more consistent with a gradual increase in elk numbers rather than a rapid behavioral shift in elk foraging following wolf extirpation. In addition, our estimates of relative survivorship of young browsable aspen indicate that aspen are not currently recovering in Yellowstone, even in the presence of a large wolf population. Finally, in an experimental test of the BMTC hypothesis we found that the impacts of elk browsing on aspen demography are not diminished in sites where elk are at higher risk of predation by wolves. These findings suggest the need to further evaluate how trophic cascades are mediated by predator–prey life history and ecological context.

Transportation During and After Hurricane Sandy - Kaufman, Sarah; Qing, Carson; Levenson, Nolan; Hanson, Melinda (NYU Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, Rudin Center for Transportation, 2012)

Agro-ecological class stability decreases in response to climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest, USA - Kaur, Harsimran; Huggins, David R.; Rupp, Richard A.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Reganold, John P. (Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 2017)
Climate change will impact bioclimatic drivers that regulate the geospatial distribution of dryland agro-ecological classes (AECs). Characterizing the geospatial relationship between present AECs and their bioclimatic controls will provide insights into potential future shifts in AECs as climate changes. The major objectives of this study are to quantify empirical relationships between bioclimatic variables and the current geospatial distribution of six dryland AECs of the inland Pacific Northwest of the United States; and apply bioclimatic projections from downscaled climate models to assess geospatial shifts of AECs under current production practices. Two Random Forest variable selection algorithms, VarSelRF and Boruta, were used to identify relevant bioclimatic variables. Three bioclimatic variables were identified by VarSelRF as useful for predictive Random Forest modeling of six AECs: (1) Holdridge evapotranspiration index; (2) spring precipitation (March, April and May); and (3) precipitation of the warmest four-month season (June, July, August and September). Super-imposing future climate scenarios onto current agricultural production systems resulted in significant geospatial shifts in AECs. The Random Forest model projected a 58% and 63% increase in area under dynamic annual crop-fallow-transition (AC-T) and dynamic grain-fallow (GF) AECs, respectively. By contrast, a 46% decrease in area was projected for stable AC-T and dynamic annual crop (AC) AECs across all future time periods for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. For the same scenarios, the stable AC and GF AECs showed the least declines in area (8% and 13%, respectively), compared to other AECs. Future spatial shifts from stable to dynamic AECs, particularly to dynamic AC-T and dynamic GF AECs would result in more use of fallow, a greater hazard for soil erosion, greater cropping system uncertainty, and potentially less cropping system flexibility. These projections are counter to cropping system goals of increasing intensification, diversification, and productivity.
Keywords: Climate Change,Bioclimatic variables,cropping systems,Fallow,Agro-ecosystems

Interaction between urbanization and climate variability amplifies watershed nitrate export in Maryland - Kaushal, Sujay S.; Groffman, Peter M.; Band, Lawrence E.; Shields, Catherine A.; Morgan, Raymond P.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Belt, Kenneth T.; Swan, Christopher M.; Findlay, Stuart E. G.; Fisher, Gary T. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2008)

Rising stream and river temperatures in the United States - Kaushal, S. S.; Likens, G. E.; Jaworski, N. A.; Pace, M. L.; Sides, A. M.; Seekell, D.; Belt, K. T.; Secor, D. H.; Wingate, R. L. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2010)
Water temperatures are increasing in many streams and rivers throughout the US. We analyzed historical records from 40 sites and found that 20 major streams and rivers have shown statistically significant, long-term warming. Annual mean water temperatures increased by 0.009-0.077 degrees C yr(-1), and rates of warming were most rapid in, but not confined to, urbanizing areas. Long-term increases in stream water temperatures were typically correlated with increases in air temperatures. If stream temperatures were to continue to increase at current rates, due to global warming and urbanization, this could have important effects on eutrophication, ecosystem processes such as biological productivity and stream metabolism, contaminant toxicity, and loss of aquatic biodiversity.
679KG; Times Cited:14; Cited References Count:21
Keywords: long-term water; climate-change; land-use; trends; urbanization; impact

Particulate dust emission factors from unpaved roads in the U.S.–Mexico border semi-arid region - Kavouras, I. G.; DuBois, D. W.; Nikolich, G.; Corral Avittia, A. Y.; Etyemezian, V. (Journal of Arid Environments, 2016)
Keywords: PM Road dust Mineral particles Air pollution Climate

Inter-annual to multi-decadal Arctic sea ice extent trends in a warming world - Kay, J.E.; Holland, M.M.; Jahn, A. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2011)
A climate model (CCSM4) is used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing on late 20th century and early 21st century Arctic sea ice extent trends. On all timescales examined (2–50+ years), the most extreme negative observed late 20th century trends cannot be explained by modeled natural variability alone. Modeled late 20th century ice extent loss also cannot be explained by natural causes alone, but the six available CCSM4 ensemble members exhibit a large spread in their late 20th century ice extent loss. Comparing trends from the CCSM4 ensemble to observed trends suggests that internal variability explains approximately half of the observed 1979–2005 September Arctic sea ice extent loss. In a warming world, CCSM4 shows that multi-decadal negative trends increase in frequency and magnitude, and that trend variability on 2–10 year timescales increases. Furthermore, when internal variability counteracts anthropogenic forcing, positive trends on 2–20 year timescales occur until the middle of the 21st century.

Using cover crops to mitigate and adapt to climate change. A review - Kaye, Jason P.; Quemada, Miguel (Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 2017)
Cover crops have long been touted for their ability to reduce erosion, fix atmospheric nitrogen, reduce nitrogen leaching, and improve soil health. In recent decades, there has been resurgence in cover crop adoption that is synchronous with a heightened awareness of climate change. Climate change mitigation and adaptation may be additional, important ecosystem services provided by cover crops, but they lie outside of the traditional list of cover cropping benefits. Here, we review the potential for cover crops to mitigate climate change by tallying all of the positive and negative impacts of cover crops on the net global warming potential of agricultural fields. Then, we use lessons learned from two contrasting regions to evaluate how cover crops affect adaptive management for precipitation and temperature change. Three key outcomes from this synthesis are (1) Cover crop effects on greenhouse gas fluxes typically mitigate warming by ~100 to 150 g CO2 e/m2/year, which is higher than mitigation from transitioning to no-till. The most important terms in the budget are soil carbon sequestration and reduced fertilizer use after legume cover crops. (2) The surface albedo change due to cover cropping, calculated for the first time here using case study sites in central Spain and Pennsylvania, USA, may mitigate 12 to 46 g CO2 e/m2/year over a 100-year time horizon. And (3) Cover crop management can also enable climate change adaptation at these case study sites, especially through reduced vulnerability to erosion from extreme rain events, increased soil water management options during droughts or periods of soil saturation, and retention of nitrogen mineralized due to warming. Overall, we found very few tradeoffs between cover cropping and climate change mitigation and adaptation, suggesting that ecosystem services that are traditionally expected from cover cropping can be promoted synergistically with services related to climate change.