Carbon stocks of trees killed by bark beetles and wildfire in the western United States - Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Meddens, Arjan J. H.; Allen, Craig D.; Kolden, Crystal A. (Environmental Research Letters, 2013)
Forests are major components of the carbon cycle, and disturbances are important influences of forest carbon. Our objective was to contribute to the understanding of forest carbon cycling by quantifying the amount of carbon in trees killed by two disturbance types, fires and bark beetles, in the western United States in recent decades. We combined existing spatial data sets of forest biomass, burn severity, and beetle-caused tree mortality to estimate the amount of aboveground and belowground carbon in killed trees across the region. We found that during 1984–2010, fires killed trees that contained 5–11 Tg C year −1 and during 1997–2010, beetles killed trees that contained 2–24 Tg C year −1 , with more trees killed since 2000 than in earlier periods. Over their periods of record, amounts of carbon in trees killed by fires and by beetle outbreaks were similar, and together these disturbances killed trees representing 9% of the total tree carbon in western forests, a similar amount to harvesting. Fires killed more trees in lower-elevation forest types such as Douglas-fir than higher-elevation forest types, whereas bark beetle outbreaks also killed trees in higher-elevation forest types such as lodgepole pine and Engelmann spruce. Over 15% of the carbon in lodgepole pine and spruce/fir forest types was in trees killed by beetle outbreaks; other forest types had 5–10% of the carbon in killed trees. Our results document the importance of these natural disturbances in the carbon budget of the western United States.

Recent tree mortality in the western United States from bark beetles and forest fires - Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Meddens, Arjan J. H.; Kolden, Crystal A. (Forest Science, 2016)
Forests are substantially influenced by disturbances, and therefore accurate information about the location, timing, and magnitude of disturbances is important for understanding effects. In the western United States, the two major disturbance agents that kill trees are wildfire and bark beetle outbreaks. Our objective was to quantify mortality area (canopy area of killed trees), which better represents impacts than affected area (by beetles) or burn perimeter area, and characterize patterns in space and time. We based our estimates on aerial surveys for bark beetles and the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database (from satellite imagery) for fires. We found that during the last three decades, bark beetle-caused mortality area was 6.6 Mha (range of estimates, 0.64‐7.8 Mha; 7.1% [0.7‐8.4%] of the forested area in the western United States) and fire-caused mortality area was 2.7‐5.9 Mha (2.9‐6.3%). Mortality area from beetles and fire was similar to recent harvest area from a national report. Although large outbreaks and fires occurred before 2000, substantially more trees were killed since then. In several forest types, mortality area exceeded 20% of the total forest type area. Our mortality area estimates allow for comparisons among disturbance types and improved assessment of the effects of tree mortality.
Keywords: Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity aerial surveys forest disturbances

Evaluating Standards for Protecting Aquatic Life in Washington’s Surface Water Quality Standards: Temperature Criteria. Draft Discussion Paper and Literature Summary - Hicks, Mark (Washington State Department of Ecology, 2000)

What a difference a species makes: A meta–analysis of dreissenid mussel impacts on freshwater ecosystems - Higgins, S. N.; Zanden, M. J. Vander (Ecological Monographs, 2010)
Keywords: benthic–pelagic coupling biological invasion cross-habitat subsidies Dreissena spp. ecosystem engineer exotic species facilitation food web disruption invasive species quagga mussel zebra mussel

Evaluating the effectiveness of local mitigation activities in reducing flood losses - Highfield, Wesley E.; Brody, Samuel D. (Natural Hazards Review, 2013)
In an effort to counteract mounting flood losses, FEMA introduced the Community Rating System (CRS) in 1990 as a way to encourage local jurisdictions to exceed the National Flood Insurance Program’s minimum standard for floodplain management. While the program has grown since its inception, there is little understanding of the degree to which mitigation activities have reduced flood-related losses to buildings and their contents over time. The effectiveness gap is addressed through the longitudinal statistical analysis of 450 CRS-participating communities. For each selected community, CRS point totals are tracked on a yearly basis over an 11-year study period from 1999 to 2009 and their impacts on insured loss claim payments based on claim type and floodplain location are tested. Results indicate that three CRS activities, freeboard requirements, open space protection, and flood protection, significantly reduce flood damage.

The changing strength and nature of fire-climate relationships in the northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008 - Higuera, Philip E.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Morgan, Penelope (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Time-varying fire-climate relationships may represent an important component of fire-regime variability, relevant for understanding the controls of fire and projecting fire activity under global-change scenarios. We used time-varying statistical models to evaluate if and how fire-climate relationships varied from 1902-2008, in one of the most flammable forested regions of the western U.S.A. Fire-danger and water-balance metrics yielded the best combination of calibration accuracy and predictive skill in modeling annual area burned. The strength of fire-climate relationships varied markedly at multi-decadal scales, with models explaining < 40% to 88% of the variation in annual area burned. The early 20th century (1902-1942) and the most recent two decades (1985-2008) exhibited strong fire-climate relationships, with weaker relationships for much of the mid 20th century (1943-1984), coincident with diminished burning, less fire-conducive climate, and the initiation of modern fire fighting. Area burned and the strength of fire-climate relationships increased sharply in the mid 1980s, associated with increased temperatures and longer potential fire seasons. Unlike decades with high burning in the early 20th century, models developed using fire-climate relationships from recent decades overpredicted area burned when applied to earlier periods. This amplified response of fire to climate is a signature of altered fire-climate-relationships, and it implicates non-climatic factors in this recent shift. Changes in fuel structure and availability following 40+ yr of unusually low fire activity, and possibly land use, may have resulted in increased fire vulnerability beyond expectations from climatic factors alone. Our results highlight the potential for non-climatic factors to alter fire-climate relationships, and the need to account for such dynamics, through adaptable statistical or processes-based models, for accurately predicting future fire activity.

Predicting thermal vulnerability of stream and river ecosystems to climate change - Hill, Ryan A.; Hawkins, Charles P.; Jin, Jiming (Climatic Change, 2014)
We use a predictive model of mean summer stream temperature to assess the vulnerability of USA streams to thermal alteration associated with climate change. The model uses air temperature and watershed features (e.g., watershed area and slope) from 569 US Geological Survey sites in the conterminous USA to predict stream temperatures. We assess the model for predicting climate-related variation in stream temperature by comparing observed and predicted historical stream temperature changes. Analysis of covariance confirms that observed and predicted changes in stream temperatures respond similarly to historical changes in air temperature. When applied to spatially-downscaled future air temperature projections (A2 emission scenario), the model predicts mean warming of 2.2 °C for the conterminous USA by 2100. Stream temperatures are most responsive to climate changes in the Cascade and Appalachian Mountains and least responsive in the southeastern USA. We then use random forests to conduct an empirical sensitivity analysis to identify those stream features most strongly associated with both observed historical and predicted future changes in summer stream temperatures. Larger changes in stream temperature are associated with warmer future air temperatures, greater air temperature changes, and larger watershed areas. Smaller changes in stream temperature are predicted for streams with high initial rates of heat loss associated with longwave radiation and evaporation, and greater base-flow index values. These models provide important insight into the potential extent of stream temperature warming at a near-continental scale and why some streams will likely be more vulnerable to climate change than others.

Coastal wetland response to sea level rise in Connecticut and New York - Hill, Troy D.; Anisfeld, Shimon C. (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2015)
Keywords: marsh accretion sediment accumulation carbon storage flooding frequency New York Connecticut

Implications of climate change for turnover in forest composition - HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Anderegg, Leander D. L.; Breckheimer, Ian; Burns, Kathleen M.; Ettinger, Ailene K.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Freund, James A.; Ford, Kevin R.; Krolss, Steve J. (Northwest Science, 2015)

Methodological framework for analysing cascading effects from flood events: The case of Sukhumvit Area, Bangkok, Thailand - Hilly, Geofrey; Vojinovic, Zoran; Weesakul, Sutat; Sanchez, Arlex; Hoang, Duc; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Chen, Albert; Evans, Barry (Water, 2018)

Neighborhood disparities in access to healthy foods and their effects on environmental justice - Hilmers, Angela; Hilmers, David C.; Dave, Jayna (American Journal of Public Health, 2012)
Environmental justice is concerned with an equitable distribution of environmental burdens. These burdens comprise immediate health hazards as well as subtle inequities, such as limited access to healthy foods.We reviewed the literature on neighborhood disparities in access to fast-food outlets and convenience stores. Low-income neighborhoods offered greater access to food sources that promote unhealthy eating. The distribution of fast-food outlets and convenience stores differed by the racial/ethnic characteristics of the neighborhood.Further research is needed to address the limitations of current studies, identify effective policy actions to achieve environmental justice, and evaluate intervention strategies to promote lifelong healthy eating habits, optimum health, and vibrant communities.

Assessing climate change vulnerability in Alaska's fishing communities - Himes-Cornell, Amber; Kasperski, Stephen (Fisheries Research, 2015)
Keywords: Adaptive capacity Alaska Climate change Fishing communities Resilience Vulnerability

Using socioeconomic and fisheries involvement indices to understand Alaska fishing community well-being - Himes-Cornell, Amber; Kasperski, Stephen (Coastal Management, 2016)

Heavy precipitation as a risk factor for shigellosis among homeless persons during an outbreak—Oregon, 2015–2016 - Hines, Jonas Z.; Jagger, Meredith A.; Jeanne, Thomas L.; West, Nicole; Winquist, Andrea; Robinson, Byron F.; Leman, Richard F.; Hedberg, Katrina (Journal of Infection, 2017)
Keywords: Disease outbreaks Homeless persons Rain, adverse effects Climate change

PROVIA Guidance on Assessing Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change - Hinkel, Jochen; Bharwani, Sukaina; Bisaro, Alexander; Carter, Timothy; Cull, Tracy; Davis, Marion; Klein, Richard; Lonsdale, Kate; Rosentrater, Lynn; Vincent, Katharine (United Nations Environment Programme, PROVIA Secretariat, 2013)

Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise - Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Perrette, Mahé; Nicholls, Robert James; Tol, Richard SJ; Marzeion, Ben; Fettweis, Xavier; Ionescu, Cezar; Levermann, Anders (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014)

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other Arctic regions - Hinzman, Larry D.; Bettez, Neil D.; Bolton, W. Robert; Chapin, F. Stuart; Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Fastie, Chris L.; Griffith, Brad; Hollister, Robert D.; Hope, Allen; Huntington, Henry P.; Jensen, Anne M.; Jia, Gensuo J.; et al. (Climatic Change, 2005)

Climate change adaptation and land use planning law - Hirokawa, Keith H.; Rosenbloom, Jonathan (Research Handbook on Climate Change Adaptation Law, 2013)

A perspective on nonstationarity and water management - Hirsch, Robert M. (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2011)
Hirsch, Robert M., 2011. A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):436‐446. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00539.x This essay offers some perspectives on climate‐related nonstationarity and water resources. Hydrologists must not lose sight of the many sources of nonstationarity, recognizing that many of them may be of much greater magnitude than those that may arise from climate change. It is paradoxical that statistical and deterministic approaches give us better insights about changes in mean conditions than about the tails of probability distributions, and yet the tails are very important to water management. Another paradox is that it is difficult to distinguish between long‐term hydrologic persistence and trend. Using very long hydrologic records is helpful in mitigating this problem, but does not guarantee success. Empirical approaches, using long‐term hydrologic records, should be an important part of the portfolio of research being applied to understand the hydrologic response to climate change. An example presented here shows very mixed results for trends in the size of the annual floods, with some strong clusters of positive trends and a strong cluster of negative trends. The potential for nonstationarity highlights the importance of the continuity of hydrologic records, the need for repeated analysis of the data as the time series grow, and the need for a well‐trained cadre of scientists and engineers, ready to interpret the data and use those analyses to help adjust the management of our water resources.

Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels? - Hirsch, R.M.; Ryberg, K.R. (Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2012)
Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85–127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes. The statistical methods applied compensate both for the inter-site correlation of flood magnitudes and the shorter-term (up to a few decades) serial correlation of floods.
Keywords: floods,; trends,; climate change,; statistics,; carbon dioxide

America's emergency care environment, a state-by-state report card - Hirshon, Jon Mark; Alson, Roy L.; Blunk, David; Brosnan, Douglas P.; Epstein, Stephen K.; Gardner, Angela F.; Lum, Donald L.; Moskovitz, Joshua B.; Richardson, Lynne D.; Stankus, Jennifer L.; Kivela, Paul D.; Wilkerson, Dean; et al. (Annals of Emergency Medicine, 2014)

The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Population: 2010 - Hixson, Lindsay; Hepler, Bradford B.; Kim, Myoung Ouk (U.S. Census Bureau, 2012)

Climate warming is predicted to reduce omega-3, long-chain, polyunsaturated fatty acid production in phytoplankton - Hixson, Stefanie M.; Arts, Michael T. (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Keywords: climate change docosahexaenoic acid eicosapentaenoic acid global warming omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids

The future role of dams in the United States of America - Ho, Michelle; Lall, Upmanu; Allaire, Maura; Devineni, Naresh; Kwon, Hyun Han; Pal, Indrani; Raff, David; Wegner, David (Water Resources Research, 2017)
Keywords: aging infrastructure economic development water storage 1808 Dams 1834 Human impacts 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets 4343 Preparedness and planning 1616 Climate variability

Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow - Ho, Michelle; Lall, Upmanu; Sun, Xun; Cook, Edward R. (Water Resources Research, 2017)
The development of paleoclimate streamflow reconstructions in the conterminous United States (CONUS) has provided water resource managers with improved insights into multidecadal and centennial scale variability that cannot be reliably detected using shorter instrumental records. Paleoclimate streamflow reconstructions have largely focused on individual catchments limiting the ability to quantify variability across the CONUS. The Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA), a spatially and temporally complete 555 year long paleoclimate record of summer drought across the CONUS, provides an opportunity to reconstruct and characterize streamflow variability at a continental scale. We explore the validity of the first paleoreconstructions of streamflow that span the CONUS informed by the LBDA targeting a set of U.S. Geological Survey streamflow sites. The reconstructions are skillful under cross validation across most of the country, but the variance explained is generally low. Spatial and temporal structures of streamflow variability are analyzed using hierarchical clustering, principal component analysis, and wavelet analyses. Nine spatially coherent clusters are identified. The reconstructions show signals of contemporary droughts such as the Dust Bowl (1930s) and 1950s droughts. Decadal-scale variability was detected in the late 1900s in the western U.S., however, similar modes of temporal variability were rarely present prior to the 1950s. The twentieth century featured longer wet spells and shorter dry spells compared with the preceding 450 years. Streamflows in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast are negatively correlated with the central U.S. suggesting the potential to mitigate some drought impacts by balancing economic activities and insurance pools across these regions during major droughts.

Managing the whole landscape: Historical, hybrid, and novel ecosystems - Hobbs, Richard J.; Higgs, Eric; Hall, Carol M.; Bridgewater, Peter; Chapin, F. Stuart; Ellis, Erle C.; Ewel, John J.; Hallett, Lauren M.; Harris, James; Hulvey, Kristen B.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Kennedy, Patricia L.; et al. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2014)

Movers and stayers: Novel assemblages in changing environments - Hobbs, Richard J.; Valentine, Leonie E.; Standish, Rachel J.; Jackson, Stephen T. (Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2018)
Keywords: novel assemblages place-based conservation range shifts species persistence

A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves - Hobday, Alistair J.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Perkins, Sarah E.; Smale, Dan A.; Straub, Sandra C.; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Burrows, Michael T.; Donat, Markus G.; Feng, Ming; Holbrook, Neil J.; Moore, Pippa J.; et al. (Progress in Oceanography, 2016)

Seasonal forecasting for decision support in marine fisheries and aquaculture - Hobday, Alistair J.; Spillman, Claire M.; Paige Eveson, J.; Hartog, Jason R. (Fisheries Oceanography, 2016)
Keywords: climate variability prawn Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia risk management salmon tuna

Traditional knowledge is science - Hobson, George (Northern Perspectives, 1992)

Flooded Bus Barns and Buckled Rails: Public Transportation and Climate Change Adaptation. FTA Report No. 0001 - Hodges, Tina (Federal Transit Administration, Office of Research, Demonstration and Innovation, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2011)

The importance of record length in estimating the magnitude of climatic changes: An example using 175 years of lake ice-out dates in New England - Hodgkins, Glenn A. (Climatic Change, 2013)
Many studies have shown that lake ice-out (break-up) dates in the Northern Hemisphere are useful indicators of late winter/early spring climate change. Trends in lake ice-out dates in New England, USA, were analyzed for 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, and 175 year periods ending in 2008. More than 100 years of ice-out data were available for 19 of the 28 lakes in this study. The magnitude of trends over time depends on the length of the period considered. For the recent 25-year period, there was a mix of earlier and later ice-out dates. Lake ice-outs during the last 50 years became earlier by 1.8 days/decade (median change for all lakes with adequate data). This is a much higher rate than for longer historical periods; ice-outs became earlier by 0.6 days/decade during the last 75 years, 0.4 days/decade during the last 100 years, and 0.6 days/decade during the last 125 years. The significance of trends was assessed under the assumption of serial independence of historical ice-out dates and under the assumption of short and long term persistence. Hypolimnion dissolved oxygen (DO) levels are an important factor in lake eutrophication and coldwater fish survival. Based on historical data available at three lakes, 32 to 46 % of the interannual variability of late summer hypolimnion DO levels was related to ice-out dates; earlier ice-outs were associated with lower DO levels.

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe - Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Wilson, Donna (Journal of Hydrology, 2017)
Keywords: Major floods Climate variability Trends AMO PDO

Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs - Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (Marine & Freshwater Research, 1999)

The impact of climate change on the world’s marine ecosystems - Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Bruno, J.F. (Science, 2010)

Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification - Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Mumby, P. J.; Hooten, A. J.; Steneck, R. S.; Greenfield, P.; Gomez, E.; Harvell, C. D.; Sale, P. F.; Edwards, A. J.; Caldeira, K.; Knowlton, N.; Eakin, C. M.; et al. (Science, 2007)

Widespread inundation of Pacific islands triggered by distant-source wind-waves - Hoeke, Ron K.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; Kruger, Jens C.; McNaught, Rebecca J.; Hunter, John R.; Smithers, Scott G. (Global and Planetary Change, 2013)
Keywords: disaster risk inundation flooding sea level El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Pacific waves storms

American Lobster Benchmark Stock Assessment and Peer Review Report - Hoenig, John; Muller, Robert; Tremblay, John (Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, 2015)

Anatomy of an extreme event - Hoerling, M.; Chen, M.; Dole, R.; Eischeid, J.; Kumar, A.; Nielsen-Gammon, J.W.; Pegion, P.; Perlwitz, J.; Quan, X.-W.; Zhang, T. (Journal of Climate, 2013)

Characterizing recent trends in U.S. heavy precipitation - Hoerling, Martin; Eischeid, Jon; Perlwitz, Judith; Quan, Xiao-Wei; Wolter, Klaus; Cheng, Linyin (Journal of Climate, 2016)
Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979–2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increases in precipitation associated with heavy daily events across the northern United States and decreases across the southern United States. Diagnosis of climate simulations (CCSM4 and CAM4) reveals that the evolution of observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was a more important factor influencing these trends than boundary condition changes linked to external radiative forcing alone. Since 1979, the latter induces widespread, but mostly weak, increases in precipitation associated with heavy daily events. The former induces a meridional pattern of northern U.S. increases and southern U.S. decreases as observed, the magnitude of which closely aligns with observed changes, especially over the south and far west. Analysis of model ensemble spread reveals that appreciable 35-yr trends in heavy daily precipitation can occur in the absence of forcing, thereby limiting detection of the weak anthropogenic influence at regional scales.Analysis of the seasonality in heavy daily precipitation trends supports physical arguments that their changes during 1979–2013 have been intimately linked to internal decadal ocean variability and less so to human-induced climate change. Most of the southern U.S. decrease has occurred during the cold season that has been dynamically driven by an atmospheric circulation reminiscent of teleconnections linked to cold tropical eastern Pacific SSTs. Most of the northeastern U.S. increase has been a warm season phenomenon, the immediate cause for which remains unresolved.
Keywords: Geographic location/entity,North America,Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Climate change,Climate variability,Variability,Trends

Understanding and Explaining Climate Extremes in the Missouri River Basin Associated with the 2011 Flooding - Hoerling, Martin; Eischeid, Jon; Webb, Robert (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, 2013)

Climate change and evolutionary adaptation - Hoffmann, Ary A.; Sgrò, Carla M. (Nature, 2011)

Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions - Hogrefe, C.; Lynn, B.; Civerolo, K.; Ku, J.‐Y.; Rosenthal, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Goldberg, R.; Gaffin, S.; Knowlton, K.; Kinney, P. L. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2004)
To simulate ozone (O3) air quality in future decades over the eastern United States, a modeling system consisting of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere‐Ocean Global Climate Model, the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale regional climate model (MM5), and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model has been applied. Estimates of future emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors are based on the A2 scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), one of the scenarios with the highest growth of CO2 among all IPCC scenarios. Simulation results for five summers in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s indicate that summertime average daily maximum 8‐hour O3 concentrations increase by 2.7, 4.2, and 5.0 ppb, respectively, as a result of regional climate change alone with respect to five summers in the 1990s. Through additional sensitivity simulations for the five summers in the 2050s the relative impact of changes in regional climate, anthropogenic emissions within the modeling domain, and changed boundary conditions approximating possible changes of global atmospheric composition was investigated. Changed boundary conditions are found to be the largest contributor to changes in predicted summertime average daily maximum 8‐hour O3 concentrations (5.0 ppb), followed by the effects of regional climate change (4.2 ppb) and the effects of increased anthropogenic emissions (1.3 ppb). However, when changes in the fourth highest summertime 8‐hour O3 concentration are considered, changes in regional climate are the most important contributor to simulated concentration changes (7.6 ppb), followed by the effect of increased anthropogenic emissions (3.9 ppb) and increased boundary conditions (2.8 ppb). Thus, while previous studies have pointed out the potentially important contribution of growing global emissions and intercontinental transport to O3 air quality in the United States for future decades, the results presented here imply that it may be equally important to consider the effects of a changing climate when planning for the future attainment of regional‐scale air quality standards such as the U.S. national ambient air quality standard that is based on the fourth highest annual daily maximum 8‐hour O3 concentration.

Drinking water treatment response following a Colorado wildfire - Hohner, Amanda K.; Cawley, Kaelin; Oropeza, Jill; Summers, R. Scott; Rosario-Ortiz, Fernando L. (Water Research, 2016)
Keywords: Wildfire Disinfection byproducts Fluorescence Coagulation Dissolved organic matter Nitrogenous DBPs

Tidal river dynamics: Implications for deltas - Hoitink, A. J. F.; Jay, D. A. (Reviews of Geophysics, 2016)
Keywords: tidal river wetlands tidal analysis delta evolution river discharge estuaries 1860 Streamflow 1872 Time series analysis 1894 Instruments and techniques: modeling 4536 Hydrography and tracers 4560 Surface waves and tides

New data systems and products at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level - Holgate, Simon J.; Matthews, Andrew; Woodworth, Philip L.; Rickards, Lesley J.; Tamisiea, Mark E.; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Foden, Peter R.; Gordon, Kathleen M.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Pugh, Jeff (Journal of Coastal Research, 2013)

Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbrae triggered by warm subsurface ocean waters - Holland, David M.; Thomas, Robert H.; de Young, Brad; Ribergaard, Mads H.; Lyberth, Bjarne (Nature Geoscience, 2008)

Charges filed in destructive Willow-area Sockeye wildfire - Hollander, Zaz (Anchorage Daily News, 2015)

Permafrost thawing in organic Arctic soils accelerated by ground heat production - Hollesen, Jørgen; Matthiesen, Henning; Møller, Anders Bjørn; Elberling, Bo (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Resilience and stability of ecological systems - Holling, C. S. (Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 1973)

Climate change risks from a building owner's perspective: Assessing future climate and energy price scenarios - Holmes, Seth H.; Reinhart, Christoph F. (Building Simulation 2011: 12th Conference of IBPSA, 2011)
Keywords: added by ERG

Dune restoration introduces genetically distinct American beachgrass, Ammophila breviligulata, into a threatened local population - Holmstrom, Rebecca M.; Etterson, Julie R.; Schimpf, David J. (Restoration Ecology, 2010)
There is mounting concern over the source and genetic history of plant propagules used for habitat restoration because introduced genotypes may destabilize remnant local populations through competition and introgression. We examined whether introduced dune grass, Ammophila breviligulata, from Michigan is genetically distinct from a threatened local Minnesota population by comparing local and nonlocal genotypes in well-established stands in the field and in experimental common gardens. Both observational and experimental studies suggest that Michigan plants differed genetically and had an advantage over local plants in terms of vegetative spread and sexual reproduction. Well-established restoration populations composed of Michigan plants produced fertile culms that were 1.8 times taller than Minnesota plants and more than twice as fecund. Introgression is unlikely, however, because Minnesota genotypes flowered on average 6.7 weeks earlier than Michigan plants and only 20% of Minnesota pollen remained viable after 4 weeks. In the common gardens, Michigan plants from two sources were larger in size, grew faster, and flowered more frequently than Minnesota plants. Plant surveys across the study area suggest that nonlocal genotypes have spread beyond documented restoration areas and into local stands, particularly in foredunes. Even if gene flow between local and nonlocal plants is limited due to differences in flowering phenology, Michigan genotypes may out-compete plants in the threatened Minnesota population through greater vegetative and sexual reproduction. The fitness consequences of this change in the genetic composition of the local population have yet to be determined.

Relative effects of climate change and wildfires on stream temperatures: A simulation modeling approach in a Rocky Mountain watershed - Holsinger, Lisa; Keane, Robert E.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Eby, Lisa; Young, Michael K. (Climatic Change, 2014)
Freshwater ecosystems are warming globally from the direct effects of climate change on air temperature and hydrology and the indirect effects on near-stream vegetation. In fire-prone landscapes, vegetative change may be especially rapid and cause significant local stream temperature increases but the importance of these increases relative to broader changes associated with air temperature and hydrology are not well understood. We linked a spatially explicit landscape fire and vegetation model (FireBGCv2) to an empirical regression equation that predicted daily stream temperatures to explore how climate change and its impacts on fire might affect stream thermal conditions across a partially forested, mountainous landscape in the western U.S. We used the model to understand the roles that wildfire and management actions such as fuel reduction and fire suppression could play in mitigating stream thermal responses to climate change. Results indicate that air temperature increases associated with future climates could account for a much larger proportion of stream temperature increases (as much as 90 % at a basin scale) than wildfire. Similarly, land management scenarios that limited wildfire prevalence had negligible effects on future stream temperature increases. These patterns emerged at broader spatial scales because wildfires typically affected only a subset of a stream’s network. However, at finer spatial and temporal scales stream temperatures were sensitive to wildfire. Although wildfires will continue to cause local, short-term effects on stream temperatures, managers of aquatic systems may need to find other solutions to cope with the larger impact from climate change on future stream warming that involves adapting to the increases while developing broad strategies for riparian vegetation restoration.

A comparison of fisheries biological reference points estimated from temperature-specific multi-species and single-species climate-enhanced stock assessment models - Holsman, Kirstin K.; Ianelli, James; Aydin, Kerim; Punt, André E.; Moffitt, Elizabeth A. (Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2016)
Keywords: Multi-species model Stock assessment Fisheries USA Alaska Bering Sea Groundfish Predator prey Bioenergetics Biological reference points

Pumping stations failed at some freeway stations - Holstege, Sean; McGlade, Caitlin; Gately, Edward (AZ Central, 2014)

Feeding strategies for grain-fed cattle in a hot environment - Holt, Simone M.; Gaughan, John. B.; Mader, Terry L. (Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 2004)
Six Bos taurus (Hereford) steers (body weight 324 ± 22 kg) were used in a 45-day study with a replicated 3 × 3 Latin-square design. Three treatments [ad libitum feeding (ADLIB); limit feeding, 85% of ad libitum (LIMIT); bunk management feeding where steers were only given access to feed from 1600 to 0800 hours the following day (BUNK)] were imposed over 3 periods, with 2 steers assigned to each treatment in each period. Cattle were managed in a temperature-controlled metabolism unit and were exposed to both thermoneutral (17.7°C–26.1°C) and hot (16.7°C–32.9°C) environmental conditions. By design, during the thermoneutral period, the ADLIB cattle displayed greater intake (P < 0.05) than the LIMIT group, with the BUNK group being intermediate. However, during the hot period, both the LIMIT and BUNK treatment groups increased feed intake 4–5%, whereas feed intake of the ADLIB treatment group declined nearly 2%. During both periods respiration rate (RR, breath/min) followed the same pattern that was observed for feed intake, with the greatest (P < 0.05) RR found in the ADLIB treatment group (81.09 and 109.55, thermoneutral and hot, respectively) and lowest (P < 0.05) RR in the LIMIT treatment group (74.47 and 102.76, thermoneutral and hot, respectively). Rectal temperature (RT) did not differ among treatments during the thermoneutral period or the first hot day, although during the thermoneutral period the ADLIB treatment group did tend to display a lower RT, possibly as a result of other physiological processes (pulse rate and RR) aiding to keep RT lower. During the hot period, differences in RT were found on Day 5, with the LIMIT cattle having lower (P < 0.10) RT (38.92°C) than the ADLIB (39.18°C) cattle, with BUNK cattle RT (39.14°C) being intermediate. However, when hourly data were examined, the ADLIB cattle had greater (P < 0.05) RT than the BUNK and LIMIT at 1800 hours and greater RT (P < 0.05) than the LIMIT group at 1400, 1500, and 1600 hours. Clearly, a change in diurnal RT pattern was obtained by using the LIMIT and BUNK feeding regimen. Both of these groups displayed a peak RT during the hot conditions, between 2100 and 2200 hours, whereas the ADLIB group displayed a peak RT between 1400 and 1500 hours, a time very close to when peak climatic stress occurs.Based on these results it is apparent that feedlot managers could alleviate the effects of adverse hot weather on cattle by utilising either a limit-feeding regimen or altering bunk management practices to prevent feed from being consumed several hours prior to the hottest portion of the day.
Keywords: beef cattle, heat stress, feedlot, feeding regimen.

National Landmarks at Risk: How Rising Seas, Floods, and Wildfires Are Threatening the United States’ Most Cherished Historic Sites - Holtz, Debra; Markham, Adam; Cell, Kate; Ekwurzel, Brenda (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014)
Keywords: added by ERG

Development of a 2001 National Land-Cover Database for the United States - Homer, Collin; Huang, Chengquan; Yang, Limin; Wylie, Bruce; Coan, Michael (Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 2007)

Completion of the 2011 National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States—Representing a decade of land cover change information - Homer, Collin G; Dewitz, Jon A; Yang, Limin; Jin, Suming; Danielson, Patrick; Xian, George; Coulston, John; Herold, Nathaniel D; Wickham, JD; Megown, Kevin (Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 2015)

Rising temperatures, human health, and the role of adaptation - Hondula, David M.; Balling, Robert C., Jr.; Vanos, J.K.; Georgescu, Matei (Current Climate Change Reports, 2015)

Fine-scale spatial variability of heat-related mortality in Philadelphia County, USA, from 1983-2008: A case-series analysis - Hondula, David M.; Davis, Robert E.; Leisten, Matthew J.; Saha, Michael V.; Veazey, Lindsay M.; Wegner, Carleigh R. (Environmental Health, 2012)
High temperature and humidity conditions are associated with short-term elevations in the mortality rate in many United States cities. Previous research has quantified this relationship in an aggregate manner over large metropolitan areas, but within these areas the response may differ based on local-scale variability in climate, population characteristics, and socio-economic factors.

Geographic dimensions of heat-related mortality in seven U.S. cities - Hondula, David M.; Davis, Robert E.; Saha, Michael V.; Wegner, Carleigh R.; Veazey, Lindsay M. (Environmental Research, 2015)
Keywords: Heat Mortality Spatial Vulnerability Urban

Assessing freshwater life-stage vulnerability of an endangered Chinook salmon population to climate change influences on stream habitat - Honea, Jon M.; McClure, Michelle M.; Jorgensen, Jeffrey C.; Scheuerell, Mark D. (Climate Research, 2016)
We linked a set of climate, hydrology, landscape, and fish population models to estimate the relative influence of freshwater habitat variables on the abundance of a population of endangered stream-type Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha responding to a warming climate. The hydrology models estimated that increases in annual air temperature and winter precipitation would lead to increases in water temperature and changes in discharge, including higher flows during the egg-incubation period and lower flows during the summer rearing period. The spatially explicit population model estimated a resulting decline of 0 to 7% in the number of spawners, with 3 of 4 global climate models estimating a decline of 4 to 7%. Increased water temperature during the summer spawning period was the most limiting among habitat variables modeled, but our modeling suggested that aggressive habitat restoration (increasing forested area and reducing impervious area) could mitigate some spawner abundance reductions. Better knowledge of the links between climate changes and habitat response, including increased streambed scour due to the larger and more frequent winter high-discharge events predicted by our hydrology models, would improve our ability to estimate climate effects on populations. Future limitation by elevated summer water temperature, and potentially egg-pocket scour, would further stress an endangered population currently limited by the percentage of fine sediment around egg pockets. Identifying such changes demonstrates the utility of models that consider climate and integrate life-stage-specific habitat influences over a species life cycle, thereby indicating restoration actions with the potential to benefit sensitive life stages.
10.3354/cr01434

Thaw settlement hazard of permafrost related to climate warming in Alaska - Hong, Eunkyoung; Perkins, Robert; Trainor, Sarah (Arctic, 2014)
Keywords: Permafrost Settlement Hazard Index, permafrost, thaw subsidence, thaw settlement, thaw settlement risk in Alaska, climate warming

Expanding geographical distribution of the mosquito, Culex pipiens, in Canada under climate change - Hongoh, V.; Berrang-Ford, L.; Scott, M. E.; Lindsay, L. R. (Applied Geography, 2012)
Keywords: Species distribution Range expansion Climate change Geographic information systems

The geological record of ocean acidification - Hönisch, Bärbel; Ridgwell, Andy; Schmidt, Daniela N.; Thomas, Ellen; Gibbs, Samantha J.; Sluijs, Appy; Zeebe, Richard; Kump, Lee; Martindale, Rowan C.; Greene, Sarah E.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Ries, Justin; et al. (Science, 2012)

An analysis of lake morphometric and land-use characteristics that promote persistence of Cisco in Indiana - Honsey, Andrew E.; Donabauer, Steven B.; Höök, Tomas O. (Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 2016)

Sea-level rise and coastal groundwater inundation and shoaling at select sites in California, USA - Hoover, Daniel J.; Odigie, Kingsley O.; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Barnard, Patrick (Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2017)
Keywords: Sea-level rise Groundwater Coastal aquifer Inundation projections Groundwater shoaling California

Sea-level rise and coastal groundwater inundation and shoaling at select sites in California, USA - Hoover, Daniel J.; Odigie, Kingsley O.; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Barnard, Patrick (Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2017)
Keywords: Sea-level rise Groundwater Coastal aquifer Inundation projections Groundwater shoaling California

Testing the apparent resistance of three dominant plants to chronic drought on the Colorado Plateau - Hoover, David L.; Duniway, Michael C.; Belnap, Jayne (Journal of Ecology, 2017)
Keywords: cold desert dryland ecophysiology Hierarchical Response Framework normalized difference vegetation index photosynthesis plant functional types press soil moisture dynamics

Economic impacts of carbon dioxide and methane released from thawing permafrost. - Hope, Chris; Schaefer, Kevin (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Assessing the quality of rural hazard mitigation plans in the southeastern United States - Horney, Jennifer; Nguyen, Mai; Salvesen, David; Dwyer, Caroline; Cooper, John; Berke, Philip (Journal of Planning Education and Research, 2017)
High-quality hazard mitigation plans may improve postdisaster outcomes in many ways, including establishing a community fact base and providing rationales for protective policies and actions. Hazard mitigation plans in eighty-four rural counties in the Southeastern United States were scored using an established protocol. To supplement quantitative data, twenty-one key informant interviews were conducted in a subsample of seven counties. While overall plan quality was poor, informants identified areas for improvement. Understanding potential shortcomings of rural hazard mitigation plans can help communities identify areas to direct limited resources to improve plans, particularly in communities that self-identify as highly vulnerable to disasters.
Keywords: methods,neighborhood planning,sustainability

Assessing the relationship between hazard mitigation plan quality and rural status in a cohort of 57 counties from 3 states in the southeastern U.S - Horney, Jennifer A.; Naimi, Ashley I.; Lyles, Ward; Simon, Matt; Salvesen, David; Berke, Philip (Challenges, 2012)

Resilience - Hornor, Gail (Journal of Pediatric Health Care, 2017)
Keywords: Trauma resilience stress

Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends - Horton, Daniel E.; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Singh, Deepti; Swain, Daniel L.; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (Nature, 2015)

Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events - Horton, Daniel E.; Skinner, Christopher B.; Singh, Deepti; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)
Ch3

Climate science for decision-making in the New York metropolitan region - Horton, Radley; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William; Bader, Daniel; Sohl, Linda (Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation, 2016)

Climate Change in New York State. Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information, Supplement to NYSERDA Report 11-18 - Horton, Radley H.; Bader, Daniel A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Solecki, William (New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), 2014)
ISBN: 978-1-936842-08-7

Climate hazard assessment for stakeholder adaptation planning in New York City - Horton, R.M.; Gornitz, V.; Bader, D.A.; Ruane, A.C.; Goldberg, R.; Rosenzweig, C. (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2011)

Beyond Hurricane Sandy: What might the future hold for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic? - Horton, Radley M.; Liu, Jiping (Journal of Extreme Events, 2014)

A simple method for estimating excess mortality due to heat waves, as applied to the 2006 California heat wave - Hoshiko, Sumi; English, Paul; Smith, Daniel; Trent, Roger (International Journal of Public Health, 2010)
Ch2

Climate change and alpine stream biology: Progress, challenges, and opportunities for the future - Hotaling, Scott; Finn, Debra S.; Joseph Giersch, J.; Weisrock, David W.; Jacobsen, Dean (Biological Reviews, 2017)
Keywords: lotic ecology glacier recession global change biodiversity macroinvertebrate benthic mountain microbial ecology conservation biology

The Global Precipitation Measurement mission - Hou, Arthur Y.; Kakar, Ramesh K.; Neeck, Steven; Azarbarzin, Ardeshir A.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Kojima, Masahiro; Oki, Riko; Nakamura, Kenji; Iguchi, Toshio (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2014)
Precipitation affects many aspects of our everyday life. It is the primary source of freshwater and has significant socioeconomic impacts resulting from natural hazards such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. Fundamentally, precipitation is a critical component of the global water and energy cycle that governs the weather, climate, and ecological systems. Accurate and timely knowledge of when, where, and how much it rains or snows is essential for understanding how the Earth system functions and for improving the prediction of weather, climate, freshwater resources, and natural hazard events. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is an international satellite mission specifically designed to set a new standard for the measurement of precipitation from space and to provide a new generation of global rainfall and snowfall observations in all parts of the world every 3 h. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japan Aerospace and Exploration Agency (JAXA) successfully launched the Core Observatory satellite on 28 February 2014 carrying advanced radar and radiometer systems to serve as a precipitation physics observatory. This will serve as a transfer standard for improving the accuracy and consistency of precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational satellites provided by a consortium of international partners. GPM will provide key measurements for understanding the global water and energy cycle in a changing climate as well as timely information useful for a range of regional and global societal applications such as numerical weather prediction, natural hazard monitoring, freshwater resource management, and crop forecasting.

An approach to developing local climate change environmental public health indicators in a rural district - Houghton, Adele; Austin, Jessica; Beerman, Abby; Horton, Clayton (Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2017)

Carbon flux to the atmosphere from land-use changes 1850-2005. In TRENDS: A Compendium of Data on Global Change - Houghton, Richard A. (ORNL Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (TN), 2008)

The U.S. carbon budget: Contributions from land-use change - Houghton, R. A.; Hackler, J.L.; Lawrence, K.T. (Science, 1999)

Ch. 12: Potential consequences of climate variability and change for native peoples and homelands - Houser, S.; Teller, V.; MacCracken, M.; Gough, R; Spears, P. (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: Potential Consequences of Climate Change and Variability and Change, 2001)

Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus - Houser, Trevor; Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Larsen, Kate; Delgado, Michael; Jina, Amir; Mastrandrea, Michael; Mohan, Shashank; Muir-Wood, Robert; Rasmussen, D. J.; Rising, James; Wilson, Paul (Columbia University Press, 2015)

American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks in the United States - Houser, Trevor; Kopp, Robert; Hsiang, Solomon; Delgado, Michael; Jina, Amir; Larsen, Kate; Mastrandrea, Michael; Mohan, Shashank; Muir-Wood, Robert; Rasmussen, DJ; Rising, James; Wilson, Paul (Working Paper Series, 2014)

Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: Adaptation strategies for a changing climate - Houston, Laurie; Capalbo, Susan; Seavert, Clark; Dalton, Meghan; Bryla, David; Sagili, Ramesh (Climatic Change, 2018)
Specialty fruit crops represent a substantial portion of the value of agricultural production in the Pacific Northwest. Climate change may threaten water sources, lengthen the dry season, raise temperatures during both the winter chilling period and the growing season, and facilitate the spread of fungal diseases and insects. Such changes have the potential to substantially reduce net returns due to increased input costs and altered yields and product quality. Many management strategies that are already being used to prolong growing seasons in marginal production areas and to improve production and quality in established production regions may also be useful as adaptation strategies under a changing climate. These strategies mostly involve moderating temperatures and controlling or compensating for mismatches between phenology and seasonal weather conditions.

Clarifying the role of coastal and marine systems in climate mitigation - Howard, Jennifer; Sutton-Grier, Ariana; Herr, Dorothée; Kleypas, Joan; Landis, Emily; McLeod, Elizabeth; Pidgeon, Emily; Simpson, Stefanie (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2017)

Hydrologic restoration in a dynamic subtropical mangrove-to-marsh ecotone - Howard, Rebecca J.; Day, Richard H.; Krauss, Ken W.; From, Andrew S.; Allain, Larry; Cormier, Nicole (Restoration Ecology, 2017)
Keywords: coastal marsh hydrology mangrove forest expansion plant species composition transition zone

Adapting agriculture to climate change - Howden, S.M.; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007)

Appalachian culture and environmental planning: Expanding the role of cultural sciences - Howell, Benita J. (Culture, Environment, and Conservation in the Appalachian South, 2002)

Economic Analysis of the 2015 Drought for California Agriculture - Howitt, Richard; MacEwan, Duncan; Medellín-Azuara, Josué; Lund, Jay; Sumner, Daniel (University of California-Davis, Center for Watershed Sciences, 2015)

Economic Analysis of the 2014 Drought for California Agriculture - Howitt, Richard; Medellín-Azuara, Josué; MacEwan, Duncan; Lund, Jay R.; Sumner, Daniel (University of California-Davis, Center for Watershed Sciences, 2014)

Changes in Lake Superior ice cover at Bayfield, Wisconsin - Howk, Forrest (Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2009)
Keywords: Ice Navigation Bayfield Lake Superior

Indians in American History: An Introduction - Hoxie, Frederick E.; Iverson, Peter (Wiley, 2014)

Climate change effects on livestock in the Northeast US and strategies for adaptation - Hristov, A. N.; Degaetano, A. T.; Rotz, C. A.; Hoberg, E.; Skinner, R. H.; Felix, T.; Li, H.; Patterson, P. H.; Roth, G.; Hall, M.; Ott, T. L.; Baumgard, L. H.; et al. (Climatic Change, 2017)
The livestock industries are a major contributor to the economy of the northeastern United States. Climate models predict increased average maximum temperatures, days with temperatures exceeding 25 °C, and higher annual precipitation in the Northeast. These environmental changes combined with increased atmospheric CO2 concentration are expected to either increase or decrease forage productivity depending on the crop, and may decrease protein content and forage digestibility. Winter damage to sensitive forage species may also increase. Predicted temperature increases are expected to reduce fertility in dairy cattle and heat stress-induced inflammation may limit energy available for productive functions. Additional loss in milk production due to decreased feed intake is estimated to be up to 1% of the projected annual milk production through 2100. The effects of climate change on the beef industry in the Northeast are expected to be minimal. Broiler production in the region may benefit from warmer winter and summer temperatures, but future housing will require greater insulation and ventilation fan capacity. Providing adequate housing and ventilation to offset climate changes will also be important for the layer industry and will likely increase the price of eggs. Climate change is expected to have an economic impact on the horse industry in the region through additional management of land and forage resources, building of shelters, and heat abatement at equine events. Increased temperatures and more intense storms will increase nutrient losses and gaseous emissions from animal manure. Uncertainties about how host animals, pathogens, and disease vectors will respond to climate change highlight the need for continued animal health monitoring.

Assessing Urban Vulnerability [web site] - HRWC (Huron River Watershed Council (HRWC), 2018)

Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States - Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Jina, Amir; Rising, James; Delgado, Michael; Mohan, Shashank; Rasmussen, D. J.; Muir-Wood, Robert; Wilson, Paul; Oppenheimer, Michael; Larsen, Kate; Houser, Trevor (Science, 2017)
Episodes of severe weather in the United States, such as the present abundance of rainfall in California, are brandished as tangible evidence of the future costs of current climate trends. Hsiang et al. collected national data documenting the responses in six economic sectors to short-term weather fluctuations. These data were integrated with probabilistic distributions from a set of global climate models and used to estimate future costs during the remainder of this century across a range of scenarios (see the Perspective by Pizer). In terms of overall effects on gross domestic product, the authors predict negative impacts in the southern United States and positive impacts in some parts of the Pacific Northwest and New England.Science, this issue p. 1362; see also p. 1330Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).

Climate, conflict, and social stability: What does the evidence say? - Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, Marshall (Climatic Change, 2014)

Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict - Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Miguel, E. (Science, 2013)
A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1sigma) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2sigma to 4sigma by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.
Hsiang, Solomon M Burke, Marshall Miguel, Edward Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. United States Science. 2013 Sep 13;341(6151):1235367. doi: 10.1126/science.1235367. Epub 2013 Aug 1.
Keywords: Climate Climate Change/ statistics & numerical data Conflict (Psychology) Crime/ statistics & numerical data Humans Literature Based Discovery Violence/statistics & numerical data

The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence from 6,700 Cyclones - Hsiang, Solomon M.; Jina, Amir S. (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014)

Intercropping maize and wheat with conservation agriculture principles improves water harvesting and reduces carbon emissions in dry areas - Hu, Falong; Gan, Yantai; Cui, Hongyan; Zhao, Cai; Feng, Fuxue; Yin, Wen; Chai, Qiang (European Journal of Agronomy, 2016)
Keywords: Conservation tillage No-till Residue management Strip intercropping Soil moisture Soil respiration C sequestration

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and intercomparisons - Huang, Boyin; Banzon, Viva F.; Freeman, Eric; Lawrimore, Jay; Liu, Wei; Peterson, Thomas C.; Smith, Thomas M.; Thorne, Peter W.; Woodruff, Scott D.; Zhang, Huai-Min (Journal of Climate, 2015)
The monthly Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset, available on global 2° × 2° grids, has been revised herein to version 4 (v4) from v3b. Major revisions include updated and substantially more complete input data from the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) release 2.5; revised empirical orthogonal teleconnections (EOTs) and EOT acceptance criterion; updated sea surface temperature (SST) quality control procedures; revised SST anomaly (SSTA) evaluation methods; updated bias adjustments of ship SSTs using the Hadley Centre Nighttime Marine Air Temperature dataset version 2 (HadNMAT2); and buoy SST bias adjustment not previously made in v3b.Tests show that the impacts of the revisions to ship SST bias adjustment in ERSST.v4 are dominant among all revisions and updates. The effect is to make SST 0.1°–0.2°C cooler north of 30°S but 0.1°–0.2°C warmer south of 30°S in ERSST.v4 than in ERSST.v3b before 1940. In comparison with the Met Office SST product [the Hadley Centre Sea Surface Temperature dataset, version 3 (HadSST3)], the ship SST bias adjustment in ERSST.v4 is 0.1°–0.2°C cooler in the tropics but 0.1°–0.2°C warmer in the midlatitude oceans both before 1940 and from 1945 to 1970. Comparisons highlight differences in long-term SST trends and SSTA variations at decadal time scales among ERSST.v4, ERSST.v3b, HadSST3, and Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SST version 2 (COBE-SST2), which is largely associated with the difference of bias adjustments in these SST products. The tests also show that, when compared with v3b, SSTAs in ERSST.v4 can substantially better represent the El Niño/La Niña behavior when observations are sparse before 1940. Comparisons indicate that SSTs in ERSST.v4 are as close to satellite-based observations as other similar SST analyses.
Keywords: Sea surface temperature,Buoy observations,Data processing,In situ oceanic observations,Ship observations,Bias

Total and extreme precipitation changes over the northeastern United States - Huang, Huanping; Winter, Jonathan M.; Osterberg, Erich C.; Horton, Radley M.; Beckage, Brian (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2017)
The northeastern United States has experienced a large increase in precipitation over recent decades. Annual and seasonal changes of total and extreme precipitation from station observations in the Northeast were assessed over multiple time periods spanning 1901–2014. Spatially averaged, both annual total and extreme precipitation across the Northeast increased significantly since 1901, with changepoints occurring in 2002 and 1996, respectively. Annual extreme precipitation experienced a larger increase than total precipitation; extreme precipitation from 1996 to 2014 is 53% higher than from 1901 to 1995. Spatially, coastal areas receive more total and extreme precipitation on average, but increases across the changepoints are distributed fairly uniformly across the domain. Increases in annual total precipitation across the 2002 changepoint are driven by significant total precipitation increases in fall and summer, while increases in annual extreme precipitation across the 1996 changepoint are driven by significant extreme precipitation increases in fall and spring. The ability of gridded observed and reanalysis precipitation data to reproduce station observations was also evaluated. Gridded observations perform well in reproducing averages and trends of annual and seasonal total precipitation, but extreme precipitation trends show significantly different spatial and domain-averaged trends than station data. The North American Regional Reanalysis generally underestimates annual and seasonal total and extreme precipitation means and trends relative to station observations, and also shows substantial differences in the spatial pattern of total and extreme precipitation trends within the Northeast.
Keywords: Climate change,Climate variability,Climatology,Hydrometeorology

Cold- and heat-related mortality: A cautionary note on current damage functions with net benefits from climate change - Huber, Veronika; Ibarreta, Dolores; Frieler, Katja (Climatic Change, 2017)
Several economic assessments of climate change build on the assumption that reductions of cold-related mortality will overcompensate increases in heat-related mortality at least for moderate levels of global warming. Due to the lack of suitable epidemiological studies with sufficient spatial coverage, many of these assessments rely on one particular dataset: projections of temperature-related mortality in 17 countries published almost 20 years ago. Here, we reanalyse this dataset with a focus on cardiovascular mortality and present evidence for two flaws in the original analysis, which would imply a significant bias towards finding net mortality benefits from climate change: (i) the combination of mortality data for all ages with data specific to the elderly and (ii) the confounding of seasonal effects with direct temperature effects on mortality. This bias appears to be further amplified in the integrated assessment models FUND and ENVISAGE, and related economic assessment tools relying on the same calibration scheme, because heat-related cardiovascular mortality is assumed to affect urban populations only in these models. In an exemplary calculation, we show that while FUND currently projects a net reduction of approximately 380,000 deaths from cardiovascular diseases globally per year at 1 °C of global warming, correcting for the two potential flaws and assuming equal vulnerability of urban and rural populations would result in a net increase of cardiovascular mortality, with approximately 150,000 net additional deaths globally per year. Our findings point to the urgent need of renewing damage functions on temperature-related mortality currently applied in some of the most widely used integrated assessment models.

Climate impact research: Beyond patchwork - Huber, V.; Schellnhuber, H. J.; Arnell, N. W.; Frieler, K.; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, D.; Haddeland, I.; Kabat, P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Lucht, W.; Parry, M.; Piontek, F.; et al. (Earth System Dynamics, 2014)
ESD

Climate Change Adaptation Plan - HUD (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), 2014)

Zoonotic infections in Alaska: Disease prevalence, potential impact of climate change and recommended actions for earlier disease detection, research, prevention and control - Hueffer, K.; Parkinson, A. J.; Gerlach, R.; Berner, J. (International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 2013)
Over the last 60 years, Alaska's mean annual temperature has increased by 1.6 degrees C, more than twice the rate of the rest of the United States. As a result, climate change impacts are more pronounced here than in other regions of the United States. Warmer temperatures may allow some infected host animals to survive winters in larger numbers, increase their population and expand their range of habitation thus increasing the opportunity for transmission of infection to humans. Subsistence hunting and gathering activities may place rural residents of Alaska at a greater risk of acquiring zoonotic infections than urban residents. Known zoonotic diseases that occur in Alaska include brucellosis, toxoplasmosis, trichinellosis, giardiasis/cryptosporidiosis, echinococcosis, rabies and tularemia. Actions for early disease detection, research and prevention and control include: (1) determining baseline levels of infection and disease in both humans and host animals; (2) conducting more research to understand the ecology of infection in the Arctic environment; (3) improving active and passive surveillance systems for infection and disease in humans and animals; (4) improving outreach, education and communication on climate-sensitive infectious diseases at the community, health and animal care provider levels; and (5) improving coordination between public health and animal health agencies, universities and tribal health organisations.
Keywords: Zoonotic infections climate change gaps in knowledge recommendations US Arctic toxoplasma-gondii echinococcus-multilocularis serologic survey molecular characterization sarcocystis-neurona marine mammals grizzly bears brucella cryptosporidium trichinella

Linking near-surface and satellite remote sensing measurements of deciduous broadleaf forest phenology - Hufkens, Koen; Friedl, Mark; Sonnentag, Oliver; Braswell, Bobby H.; Milliman, Thomas; Richardson, Andrew D. (Remote Sensing of Environment, 2012)
Keywords: MODIS PhenoCam Digital camera Vegetation indices Validation

Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps - Hugelius, G.; Strauss, J.; Zubrzycki, S.; Harden, J. W.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Ping, C. L.; Schirrmeister, L.; Grosse, G.; Michaelson, G. J.; Koven, C. D.; O'Donnell, J. A.; Elberling, B.; et al. (Biogeosciences, 2014)

The Financial Impacts of Alternative Water Project Delivery Models: A Closer Look at Nine Communities - Hughes, Jeff (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Environmental Finance Center, 2017)

The effects of eelgrass habitat loss on estuarine fish communities of southern New England - Hughes, J.E.; Deegan, L.A.; Wyda, J.C.; Weaver, M.J.; Wright, A. (Estuaries and Coasts, 2002)

A meta-analysis of urban climate change adaptation planning in the U.S - Hughes, Sara (Urban Climate, 2015)
The concentration of people, infrastructure, and ecosystem services in urban areas make them prime sites for climate change adaptation. While advances have been made in the development of frameworks for adaptation planning and in identifying both real and potential barriers to action, empirical work evaluating urban adaptation planning processes has been relatively piecemeal. Existing assessments of current experience with urban adaptation provide necessarily broad generalizations based on the available peer-reviewed literature. This paper uses a meta-analysis of U.S. cities’ current experience with urban adaptation planning drawing from 54 sources that include peer-reviewed literature, government reports, white papers, and reports published by non-governmental organizations. The analysis specifically evaluates the institutional support structures being developed for urban climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that adaptation planning is driven by a desire to reduce vulnerability and often catalyzes new collaborations and coordination mechanisms in urban governance. As a result, building capacity for urban climate change adaptation planning requires a focus not only on city governments themselves but also on the complex horizontal and vertical networks that have arisen around such efforts. Existing adaptation planning often lacks attention to equity issues, social vulnerability, and the influence of non-climatic factors on vulnerability. Engaging city governments and communities in adaptation planning – whether to initiate or expand such efforts – may require that adaptation planning is framed to capitalize on their motivation to protect assets and reduce vulnerability.
Keywords: urban Adaptation climate change

Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene - Hughes, Terry P.; Anderson, Kristen D.; Connolly, Sean R.; Heron, Scott F.; Kerry, James T.; Lough, Janice M.; Baird, Andrew H.; Baum, Julia K.; Berumen, Michael L.; Bridge, Tom C.; Claar, Danielle C.; Eakin, C. Mark; et al. (Science, 2018)
Coral bleaching occurs when stressful conditions result in the expulsion of the algal partner from the coral. Before anthropogenic climate warming, such events were relatively rare, allowing for recovery of the reef between events. Hughes et al. looked at 100 reefs globally and found that the average interval between bleaching events is now less than half what it was before. Such narrow recovery windows do not allow for full recovery. Furthermore, warming events such as El Niño are warmer than previously, as are general ocean conditions. Such changes are likely to make it more and more difficult for reefs to recover between stressful events.Science, this issue p. 80Tropical reef systems are transitioning to a new era in which the interval between recurrent bouts of coral bleaching is too short for a full recovery of mature assemblages. We analyzed bleaching records at 100 globally distributed reef locations from 1980 to 2016. The median return time between pairs of severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years. As global warming has progressed, tropical sea surface temperatures are warmer now during current La Niña conditions than they were during El Niño events three decades ago. Consequently, as we transition to the Anthropocene, coral bleaching is occurring more frequently in all El Niño–Southern Oscillation phases, increasing the likelihood of annual bleaching in the coming decades.

Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs - Hughes, T. P.; Baird, A. H.; Bellwood, D. R.; Card, M.; Connolly, S. R.; Folke, C.; Grosberg, R.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Jackson, J. B. C.; Kleypas, J.; Lough, J. M.; Marshall, P.; et al. (Science, 2003)
The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

Coral reefs in the Anthropocene - Hughes, Terry P.; Barnes, Michele L.; Bellwood, David R.; Cinner, Joshua E.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Jackson, Jeremy B. C.; Kleypas, Joanie; van de Leemput, Ingrid A.; Lough, Janice M.; Morrison, Tiffany H.; Palumbi, Stephen R.; van Nes, Egbert H.; et al. (Nature, 2017)

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals - Hughes, Terry P.; Kerry, James T.; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Anderson, Kristen D.; Baird, Andrew H.; Babcock, Russell C.; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R.; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C.; Butler, Ian R.; et al. (Nature, 2017)
During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.
Keywords: Temperature Animals global warming Conservation of Natural Resources Australia Anthozoa Chlorophyll Seawater

Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: A review of the literature - Hunt, A.; Watkiss, P. (Climatic Change, 2011)
Keywords: urban climate change Adaptation NCA3

Climate impacts on eastern Bering Sea foodwebs: A synthesis of new data and an assessment of the Oscillating Control Hypothesis - Hunt, G.L., Jr.; Coyle, K.O.; Eisner, L.B.; Farley, E.V.; Heintz, R.A.; Mueter, F.; Napp, J.M.; Overland, J.E.; Ressler, P.H.; Salo, S.; Stabeno, P.J. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2011)

Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers - Hunt, Len M.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Fulton, David C.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Smith, Jordan W.; Tunney, Tyler D.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E. (Fisheries, 2016)

How small communities respond to environmental change: Patterns from tropical to polar ecosystems - Huntington, Henry P.; Begossi, Alpina; Fox Gearheard, Shari; Kersey, Beth; Loring, Philip A.; Mustonen, Tero; Paudel, Prakash K.; Silvano, Renato A. M.; Vave, Ron (Ecology and Society, 2017)
Local communities throughout the world are experiencing extensive social, cultural, economic, environmental, and climatic changes. Rather than passively accepting the effects of such changes, many communities are responding in various ways to take advantage of opportunities and to minimize negative impacts. We review examples from 13 cases around the world to identify patterns in how communities have been able to respond to change. Communities are able to respond by making changes in the time and location of activities, by using different species, by developing or using new technologies, and by organizing themselves internally or in networks. The possible responses a community can make on its own constitute the autonomous response space. When communities work with others to respond, they are in the collaborative response space. These findings suggest that assessments concerning climate and other forms of change should include local responses as a foundation for policy recommendations, recognizing that both autonomous and collaborative responses can contribute to adaptation. Policies designed to achieve adaptation or sustainability should consider ways to expand the autonomous response space, thus freeing local initiative, while also making the collaborative response space more cooperative, thus providing support to communities rather than imposing limitations.
Keywords: climate change environmental change management policy response space social-ecological systems

Vessels, risks, and rules: Planning for safe shipping in Bering Strait - Huntington, Henry P.; Daniel, Raychelle; Hartsig, Andrew; Harun, Kevin; Heiman, Marilyn; Meehan, Rosa; Noongwook, George; Pearson, Leslie; Prior-Parks, Melissa; Robards, Martin; Stetson, George (Marine Policy, 2015)
Keywords: Bering Strait Vessel traffic Marine mammals Seabirds Subsistence Mitigation

Stakeholder perspectives - Huntington, Henry P.; Eerkes-Medrano, Laura (Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Region, 2017)

Effects of changing sea ice on marine mammals and subsistence hunters in northern Alaska from traditional knowledge interviews - Huntington, Henry P.; Quakenbush, Lori T.; Nelson, Mark (Biology Letters, 2016)

Changes in the proportion of precipitation occurring as snow in New England (1949–2000) - Huntington, Thomas G.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Keim, Barry D.; Dudley, Robert W. (Journal of Climate, 2004)
The ratio of snow to total precipitation (S/P) is a hydrologic indicator that is sensitive to climate variability and can be used to detect and monitor hydrologic responses to climatic change. Changes in S/P ratio over time could influence the magnitude and timing of spring runoff and recession to summer baseflow. The S/P ratio for 21 U.S. Historical Climatology Network sites in New England was examined. Eleven out of twenty-one sites in New England had significant decreasing annual S/P ratios from 1949 to 2000. Annual trends in S/P are predominantly a result of decreasing snowfall, and to a lesser extent, increasing rainfall. The most consistent trends were in northernmost New England where all four sites had decreasing ratios, and in the coastal and near-coastal areas where five out of eight sites had significantly decreasing ratios. The four sites in northernmost New England, which had the strongest and most coherent trends, showed an average decrease in annual S/P ratio from about 0.30 in 1949 to 0.23 in 2000. Trends in winter S/P ratio were less geographically consistent. Seven out of 21 sites had significantly decreasing winter S/P ratios. Most northern New England and coastal to near-coastal sites had statistically significant trends (p < 0.05) or weak, but not significant trends (p < 0.2). When trends in S/P were analyzed on a monthly basis for the northernmost sites, it was evident that decreasing S/P trends were significant for March and December only. Significant correlations were observed between winter S/P ratios in northern New England and the timing of spring runoff, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and the Pacific–North American (PNA) index. Significant correlations were observed between winter S/P ratios averaged for all of New England and the NAO and PNA.

Urbanization and climate change impacts on future urban flooding in Can Tho City, Vietnam - Huong, H. T. L.; Pathirana, A. (Hydrology Earth System Sciences, 2013)

Wet Weather Creates Challenges for Harvest - Hurburgh, Charles (Iowa State University, Extension and Outreach, 2016)

Kansas Statistical Abstract 2015 - Hurd, Genna M. (University of Kansas, Institute for Policy & Social Research, 2016)

Resiliency of juvenile walleye pollock to projected levels of ocean acidification - Hurst, Thomas P.; Fernandez, Elena R.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Miller, Jessica A.; Stinson, Charlotte M.; Ahgeak, Ernestine F. (Aquatic Biology, 2012)

Effects of elevated CO2 levels on eggs and larvae of a North Pacific flatfish - Hurst, Thomas P.; Laurel, Benjamin J.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Tobosa, Lauren R. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2016)

Fuel treatment effects on tree-based forest carbon storage and emissions under modeled wildfire scenarios - Hurteau, Matthew; North, Malcolm (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2009)

Quantifying the carbon balance of forest restoration and wildfire under projected climate in the fire-prone southwestern US - Hurteau, Matthew D. (PLOS ONE, 2017)
Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010–2019), mid (2050–2059), and late (2090–2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8–48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink.

Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US - Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2014)

Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100 - Hurteau, Matthew D.; Westerling, Anthony L.; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Bryant, Benjamin P. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2014)

Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands - Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Frolking, S.; Betts, R. A.; Feddema, J.; Fischer, G.; Fisk, J. P.; Hibbard, K.; Houghton, R. A.; Janetos, A.; Jones, C. D.; Kindermann, G.; et al. (Climatic Change, 2011)
In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005–2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al. 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500–2100 at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500–2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005–2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system.

Projecting the future of the U.S. carbon sink - Hurtt, G. C.; Pacala, S. W.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Caspersen, J.; Shevliakova, E.; Houghton, R. A.; Moore, B. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2002)
Atmospheric and ground-based methods agree on the presence of a carbon sink in the coterminous United States (the United States minus Alaska and Hawaii), and the primary causes for the sink recently have been identified. Projecting the future behavior of the sink is necessary for projecting future net emissions. Here we use two models, the Ecosystem Demography model and a second simpler empirically based model (Miami Land Use History), to estimate the spatio-temporal patterns of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes resulting from land-use changes and fire suppression from 1700 to 2100. Our results are compared with other historical reconstructions of ecosystem carbon fluxes and to a detailed carbon budget for the 1980s. Our projections indicate that the ecosystem recovery processes that are primarily responsible for the contemporary U.S. carbon sink will slow over the next century, resulting in a significant reduction of the sink. The projected rate of decrease depends strongly on scenarios of future land use and the long-term effectiveness of fire suppression. ED,Ecosystem Demography;Miami-LU,Miami Land Use History

A new model for global glacier change and sea-level rise - Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine (Frontiers in Earth Science, 2015)

The energy–water nexus: Managing the links between energy and water for a sustainable future - Hussey, Karen; Pittock, Jamie (Ecology and Society, 2012)
Water and energy are each recognized as indispensable inputs to modern economies. And, in recent years, driven by the three imperatives of security of supply, sustainability, and economic efficiency, the energy and water sectors have undergone rapid reform. However, it is when water and energy rely on each other that the most complex challenges are posed for policymakers. Despite the links and the urgency in both sectors for security of supply, in existing policy frameworks, energy and water policies are developed largely in isolation from one another—a degree of policy fragmentation that is seeing erroneous developments in both sectors. Examples of the trade-offs between energy and water security include: the proliferation of desalination plants and interbasin transfers to deal with water scarcity; extensive groundwater pumping for water supplies; first-generation biofuels; the proliferation of hydropower plants; decentralized water supply solutions such as rainwater tanks; and even some forms of modern irrigation techniques. Drawing on case studies from Australia, Europe, and the United States, this Special Issue attempts to develop a comprehensive understanding of the links between energy and water, to identify where better-integrated policy and management strategies and solutions are needed or available, and to understand where barriers exist to achieve that integration. In this paper we draw out some of the themes emerging from the Special Issue, and, particularly, where insights might be valuable for policymakers, practitioners, and scientists across the many relevant domains.
Keywords: energy policy energy&#8211 water nexus integrated planning policy integration water policy

Climate Change and Director's Duties - Hutley, Noel; Hartford-Davis, Sebastian (The Centre for Policy Development and the Future Business Council, 2016)

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the North-central California Coast and Ocean - Hutto, Sara V.; Higgason, Kelley D.; Kershner, Jessi M.; Reynier, Whitney A.; Gregg, Darrell S. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, 2015)

Time-varying land subsidence detected by radar altimetry: California, Taiwan and North China - Hwang, Cheinway; Yang, Yuande; Kao, Ricky; Han, Jiancheng; Shum, C. K.; Galloway, Devin L.; Sneed, Michelle; Hung, Wei-Chia; Cheng, Yung-Sheng; Li, Fei (Scientific Reports, 2016)

Evaluating wider benefits of natural flood management strategies: An ecosystem-based adaptation perspective - Iacob, Oana; Rowan, John S.; Brown, Iain; Ellis, Chris (Hydrology Research, 2014)
Climate change is projected to alter river flows and the magnitude/frequency characteristics of floods and droughts. Ecosystem-based adaptation highlights the interdependence of human and natural systems, and the potential to buffer the impacts of climate change by maintaining functioning ecosystems that continue to provide multiple societal benefits. Natural flood management (NFM), emphasising the restoration of innate hydrological pathways, provides important regulating services in relation to both runoff rates and water quality and is heralded as a potentially important climate change adaptation strategy. This paper draws together 25 NFM schemes, providing a meta-analysis of hydrological performance along with a wider consideration of their net (dis) benefits. Increasing woodland coverage, whilst positively linked to peak flow reduction (more pronounced for low magnitude events), biodiversity and carbon storage, can adversely impact other provisioning service – especially food production. Similarly, reversing historical land drainage operations appears to have mixed impacts on flood alleviation, carbon sequestration and water quality depending on landscape setting and local catchment characteristics. Wetlands and floodplain restoration strategies typically have fewer disbenefits and provide improvements for regulating and supporting services. It is concluded that future NFM proposals should be framed as ecosystem-based assessments, with trade-offs considered on a case-by-case basis.%U http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/ppiwahydrores/45/6/774.full.pdf

The variability of California summertime marine stratus: Impacts on surface air temperatures - Iacobellis, Sam F.; Cayan, Daniel R. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013)
This study investigates the variability of clouds, primarily marine stratus clouds, and how they are associated with surface temperature anomalies over California, especially along the coastal margin. We focus on the summer months of June to September when marine stratus are the dominant cloud type. Data used include satellite cloud reflectivity (cloud albedo) measurements, hourly surface observations of cloud cover and air temperature at coastal airports, and observed values of daily surface temperature at stations throughout California and Nevada. Much of the anomalous variability of summer clouds is organized over regional patterns that affect considerable portions of the coast, often extend hundreds of kilometers to the west and southwest over the North Pacific, and are bounded to the east by coastal mountains. The occurrence of marine stratus is positively correlated with both the strength and height of the thermal inversion that caps the marine boundary layer, with inversion base height being a key factor in determining their inland penetration. Cloud cover is strongly associated with surface temperature variations. In general, increased presence of cloud (higher cloud albedo) produces cooler daytime temperatures and warmer nighttime temperatures. Summer daytime temperature fluctuations associated with cloud cover variations typically exceed 1°C. The inversion-cloud albedo-temperature associations that occur at daily timescales are also found at seasonal timescales.

Multi-model inference for incorporating trophic and climate uncertainty into stock assessments - Ianelli, James; Holsman, Kirstin K.; Punt, André E.; Aydin, Kerim (Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2016)
Keywords: Model averaging Model ensemble Multi-species model Stock assessment Fisheries USA Alaska Bering Sea Groundfish Predator prey Climate change Biological reference points Walleye Pollock Pacific cod Arrowtooth flounder

Evaluating management strategies for eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in a changing environment - Ianelli, J.N.; Hollowed, A.B.; Haynie, A.C.; Mueter, F.J.; Bond, N.A. (ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil, 2011)

Recommendations to the Governor’s Subcabinet on Climate Change - IAWG (Immediate Action Working Group (IAWG), 2009)

Smarter Cities Challenge: The Challenge - IBM (IBM, 2017)
Keywords: added by ERG

Minute 319: Interim International Cooperative Measures in the Colorado River Basin through 2017 and Extension of Minute 318 Cooperative Measures to Address the Continued Effects of the April 2010 Earthquake in the Mexicali Valley, Baja California - IBWC (International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) [United States and Mexico], 2012)

Alaskan Inuit Food Security Conceptual Framework: How to Assess the Arctic from an Inuit Perspective - ICC-Alaska (Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC) – Alaska, 2015)

An assessment of non-communicable diseases, diabetes, and related risk factors in the Republic of Palau: A systems perspective - Ichiho, Henry M.; Demei, Yorah; Kuartei, Stevenson; Aitaoto, Nia (Hawaiʻi Journal of Medicine & Public Health, 2013)
Non-communicable diseases (NCD) have been identified as a health emergency in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). This assessment, funded by the National Institutes of Health, was conducted in the Republic of Palau and describes the burden due to selected NCD (diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, chronic kidney disease); and assesses the system of service capacity and current activities for service delivery, data collection, and reporting as well as identifying the issues that need to be addressed. There has been a 7.1% increase in the population between 2000 and 2010. Significant shifts in the age groups show declines among children and young adults under 34 years of age and increases among adult residents over 45 years of age. Findings reveal that the risk factors of poor diet, lack of physical activity, and lifestyle behaviors are associated with overweight and obesity and subsequent NCD that play a significant role in the morbidity and mortality of the population. The leading causes of death include heart disease and cancer. A 2003 community household survey was conducted and 22.4% of them reported a history of diabetes in the household. A survey among Ministry of Health employees showed that 44% of the men and 47% of the women were overweight and 46% of the men and 42% of the women were obese. Other findings show significant gaps in the system of administrative, clinical, and support services to address these NCD. Priority issues and needs for the administrative and clinical systems were identified.

Request for EPA Concurrence as Exceptional Events for 2012 Wildfire Impacts on PM2.5 Monitor Values at Salmon and Pinehurst Idaho - Idaho DEQ (State of Idaho Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), 2013)

Idaho Hunger Statistics—Updated May 4, 2017 - Idaho Foodbank (Idaho Foodbank, 2017)

Research methods for exploring the links between climate change and conflict - Ide, Tobias (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2017)

Decoupling of global emissions and economic growth confirmed - IEA (International Energy Agency, 2016)

Public Law 86-121: 2015 Sanitation Facilities Construction Annual Report - IHS (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Indian Health Service (IHS), 2015)

A Balanced Diet for Lake Erie: Reducing Phosphorus Loadings and Harmful Algal Blooms - IJC (International Joint Commission (IJC), 2014)
ISBN: 978-1-927336-07-6

A century of guayule: Comprehensive genetic characterization of the guayule (Parthenium argentatum A. Gray) USDA germplasm collection - Ilut, Daniel C.; Sanchez, Paul L.; Coffelt, Terry A.; Dyer, John M.; Jenks, Matthew A.; Gore, Michael A. (bioRxiv, 2017)
The fragility of a single-source, geographically concentrated supply of natural rubber, a critical material of the modern economy, has brought guayule (Parthenium argentatum A. Gray) to the forefront as an alternative source of natural rubber. The improvement of guayule for commercial-scale production has been limited by the lack of genomic tools and well-characterized genetic resources required for genomics-assisted breeding. To address this issue, we developed nearly 50,000 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genetic markers and genotyped 69 accessions of guayule and its sister taxa mariola (Parthenium incanum Kunth), representing the entire available NALPGRU germplasm collection. We identified multiple interspecific hybrid accessions previously considered guayule, including six guayule-mariola hybrids and non-mariola interspecific hybrid accessions AZ-2 and AZ-3, two commonly used high-yielding cultivars. We dissected genetic diversity within the collection to identify a highly diverse subset of guayule accessions, and showed that wild guayule stands in Big Bend National Park, Texas, USA have the potential to provide hitherto untapped guayule genetic diversity. Together, these results provide the most thorough genetic characterization of guayule germplasm to date and lay the foundation for rapid genetic improvement of commercial guayule germplasm.

Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment. A Sectoral and Regional Analysis for 2030s - Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) (Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, 2010)

Nowhere to Run: Big Game Wildlife in a Warming World - Inkley, Doug; Price, Mary; Glick, Patty; Losoff, Tara; Stein, Bruce (National Wildlife Federation, 2013)

Assessing the economic costs of serious mental illness - Insel, Thomas R. (American Journal of Psychiatry, 2008)

Hedges and trees: Incorporating fire risk into optimal decisions in forestry using a no-arbitrage approach - Insley, Margaret; Lei, Manie (Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2007)

Hospital-Based Emergency Care: At the Breaking Point - Institute of Medicine (The National Academies Press, 2007)
Today our emergency care system faces an epidemic of crowded emergency departments, patients boarding in hallways waiting to be admitted, and daily ambulance diversions. Hospital-Based Emergency Care addresses the difficulty of balancing the roles of hospital-based emergency and trauma care, not simply urgent and lifesaving care, but also safety net care for uninsured patients, public health surveillance, disaster preparation, and adjunct care in the face of increasing patient volume and limited resources. This new book considers the multiple aspects to the emergency care system in the United States by exploring its strengths, limitations, and future challenges. The wide range of issues covered includes: &#8226 The role and impact of the emergency department within the larger hospital and health care system. &#8226 Patient flow and information technology. &#8226 Workforce issues across multiple disciplines. &#8226 Patient safety and the quality and efficiency of emergency care services. &#8226 Basic, clinical, and health services research relevant to emergency care. &#8226 Special challenges of emergency care in rural settings. Hospital-Based Emergency Care is one of three books in the Future of Emergency Care series. This book will be of particular interest to emergency care providers, professional organizations, and policy makers looking to address the deficiencies in emergency care systems.
Keywords: Health and Medicine

Medical Surge Capacity: Workshop Summary - Institute of Medicine (The National Academies Press, 2010)
During natural disasters, disease pandemics, terrorist attacks, and other public health emergencies, the health system must be prepared to accommodate a surge in the number of individuals seeking medical help. For the health community, a primary concern is how to provide care to individuals during such high demand, when the health system's resources are exhausted and there are more patients than the system can accommodate. The IOM's Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Catastrophic Events held a workshop June 10-11, 2009, to assess the capability of and tools available to federal, state, and local governments to respond to a medical surge. In addition, participants discussed strategies for the public and private sectors to improve preparedness for such a surge. The workshop brought together leaders in the medical and public health preparedness fields, including policy makers from federal agencies and state and local public health departments; providers from the health care community; and health care and hospital administrators. This document summarizes the workshop.
Keywords: Health and Medicine

Performance Standards on Environmental and Social Sustainability [web site] - International Finance Corporation (World Bank)

Lake Superior Regulation: Addressing Uncertainty in Upper Great Lakes Water Levels. Final Report to the International Joint Commission - International Joint Commission (International Upper Great Lakes Study Board, 2012)
Keywords: Climate change

Managed Relocation: Reducing the Risk of Biological Invasion - Invasive Species Advisory Committee (National Invasive Species Council Secretariat, 2017)

Transparency in Transition: A Guide to Investor Disclosure on Climate Change - Investor Group on Climate Change (Investor Group on Climate Change, 2017)

Climate Change, the Indoor Environment, and Health - IOM (Institute of Medicine. The National Academies Press, 2011)

The Assessment Report on Pollinators, Pollination and Food Production - IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), 2017)
ISBN: 978-92-807-3567-3

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (Cambridge University Press, 2000)

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (Cambridge University Press, 2007)

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (Cambridge University Press, 2007)

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (Cambridge University Press, 2012)

Summary for policymakers - IPCC (Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012)

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (Cambridge University Press, 2013)

Annex I: Atlas of global and regional climate projections - IPCC (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (Cambridge University Press, 2014)

Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (Cambridge University Press, 2014)

Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014)

Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)] - IPCC (Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014)

Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (Cambridge University Press, 2014)

Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (2014)

The Power to Change: Solar and Wind Cost Reduction Potential to 2025 - IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2016)
ISBN: 9789295111974 (PDF)

Nebraska Agricultural Water Management Demonstration Network (NAWMDN): Integrating research and extension/outreach - Irmak, Suat; Rees, Jennifer M.; Zoubek, Gary L.; van DeWalle, Brandy S.; Rathje, William R.; DeBuhr, Rodney; Leininger, Dan; Siekman, Darrel D.; Schneider, James W.; Christiansen, Andrew P. (Applied Engineering in Agriculture, 2010)
. Maximizing the net benefits of irrigated plant production through appropriately designed agricultural water management programs is of growing importance in Nebraska, and other western and Midwestern states, because many areas are involved in management and policy changes to conserve irrigation water. In Nebraska, farmers are being challenged to practice conservation methods and use water resources more efficiently while meeting plant water requirements and maintaining high yields. Another challenge Nebraska experiences in it's approximately 3.5-million-ha irrigated lands is limited adoption of newer technologies/tools to help farmers better manage irrigation, conserve water and energy, and increase plant water use efficiency. In 2005, the Nebraska Agricultural Water Management Demonstration Network (NAWMDN or Network) was formed from an interdisciplinary team of partners including the Natural Resources Districts (NRD); USDA-NRCS; farmers from south central, northeast, west central, and western Nebraska; crop consultants; and University of Nebraska-Lincoln faculty. The main goal of the Network is to enable the transfer of high quality research-based information to Nebraskans through a series of demonstration projects established in farmers' fields and implement newer tools and technologies to address and enhance plant water use efficiency, water conservation, and reduce energy consumption for irrigation. The demonstration projects are supported by the scientifically-based field research and evaluation projects conducted at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, South Central Agricultural Laboratory located near Clay Center, Nebraska. The Network was formed with only 15 farmers as collaborators in only one of the 23 NRDs in 2005. As of late 2009, the number of active collaborators has increased to over 300 in 12 NRDs and 35 of 93 counties. The Network is impacting both water and energy conservation due to farmers adopting information and newer technologies for irrigation management. The NAWMDN is helping participants to improve irrigation management and efficiency by monitoring plant growth stages and development, soil moisture, and crop evapotranspiration. As a result, they are reducing irrigation water application amounts and associated energy savings is leading to greater profitability to participating farmers. For example, surveys of 300 NAWMDN participants in 2008 estimated water conservation at an average of 66 mm for maize and 55 mm for soybean on 114,000 ha (58,000 ha of maize and about 56,000 ha of soybean). With 2008 diesel fuel prices, this water conservation was an equivalent of $2,814,000 and $2,270,000 for maize and soybean, respectively, in energy costs saved for the land area represented. Since the beginning of the NAWMDN, over 8,650 producers, crop consultants, and agricultural industry personnel have been reached and educated at over 231 meetings. This article describes the goals and objectives of the Network, technical and educational components, operational functions, and procedures used in the NAWMDN. The quantitative impacts in terms of water and energy conservation are reported.
Keywords: Water conservation Irrigation management Reference evapotranspiration Crop evapotranspiration Soil moisture

Douglas‐fir plantations in Europe: A retrospective test of assisted migration to address climate change - Isaac‐Renton, Miriam G.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas; Spiecker, Heinrich (Global Change Biology, 2014)
We evaluate genetic test plantations of North American Douglas‐fir provenances in Europe to quantify how tree populations respond when subjected to climate regime shifts, and we examined whether bioclimate envelope models developed for North America to guide assisted migration under climate change can retrospectively predict the success of these provenance transfers to Europe. The meta‐analysis is based on long‐term growth data of 2800 provenances transferred to 120 European test sites. The model was generally well suited to predict the best performing provenances along north–south gradients in Western Europe, but failed to predict superior performance of coastal North American populations under continental climate conditions in Eastern Europe. However, model projections appear appropriate when considering additional information regarding adaptation of Douglas‐fir provenances to withstand frost and drought, even though the model partially fails in a validation against growth traits alone. We conclude by applying the partially validated model to climate change scenarios for Europe, demonstrating that climate trends observed over the last three decades warrant changes to current use of Douglas‐fir provenances in plantation forestry throughout Western and Central Europe.

Global warming of salmon and trout rivers in the northwestern U.S.: Road to ruin or path through purgatory? - Isaak, Daniel J.; Luce, Charles H.; Horan, Dona L.; Chandler, Gwynne L.; Wollrab, Sherry P.; Nagel, David E. (Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 2018)
Large rivers constitute small portions of drainage networks but provide important migratory habitats and fisheries for salmon and trout when and where temperatures are sufficiently cold. Management and conservation of coldwater fishes in the current era of rapid climate change require knowing how riverine thermal environments are evolving and the potential for detrimental biological impacts. Robust estimates of warming rates, however, are lacking due to limited long‐term temperature monitoring, so we compiled the best available multidecadal records and estimated trends at 391 sites in the 56,500‐km river network of the northwestern USA. Warming trends were prevalent during summer and early fall months in recent 20‐ and 40‐year periods (0.18–0.35°C per decade during 1996–2015 and 0.14–0.27°C per decade during 1976–2015), paralleled air temperature trends, and were mediated by discharge trends at regional and local levels. To illustrate the biological consequences of warming later in this century, trend estimates were used to inform selection of river temperature scenarios and assess changes in thermal exposure of adult Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka migrating to four population areas as well as thermal habitat shifts for resident Brown Trout Salmo trutta and Rainbow Trout O. mykiss populations throughout the region. Future warming of 1–3°C would increase Sockeye Salmon exposure by 5–16% (3–143 degree‐days) and reduce thermally suitable riverine trout habitats by 8–31% while causing their upstream shift. Effects of those changes on population persistence and fisheries are likely to be context dependent, and strategic habitat restoration or adaptation strategies could ameliorate some biological impairments, but effectiveness will be tempered by the size of rivers, high costs, and pervasiveness of thermal effects. Most salmon and trout rivers will continue to provide suitable habitats for the foreseeable future, but it also appears inevitable that some river reaches will gradually become too warm to provide traditional habitats.

Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network - Isaak, Daniel J.; Luce, Charles H.; Rieman, Bruce E.; Nagel, David E.; Peterson, Erin E.; Horan, Dona L.; Parkes, Sharon; Chandler, Gwynne L. (Ecological Applications, 2010)
Keywords: Boise River basin Idaho USA bull trout climate change global warming Oncorhynchus mykiss patch rainbow trout Salvelinus confluentus spatial statistical model stream temperature thermal habitat wildfire

Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest US from 1980–2009 and implications for salmonid fishes - Isaak, D.J.; Wollrab, S.; Horan, D.; Chandler, G. (Climatic Change, 2012)

Slow climate velocities of mountain streams portend their role as refugia for cold-water biodiversity - Isaak, Daniel J.; Young, Michael K.; Luce, Charles H.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Wenger, Seth J.; Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Groce, Matthew C.; Horan, Dona L.; Nagel, David E. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
The imminent demise of montane species is a recurrent theme in the climate change literature, particularly for aquatic species that are constrained to networks and elevational rather than latitudinal retreat as temperatures increase. Predictions of widespread species losses, however, have yet to be fulfilled despite decades of climate change, suggesting that trends are much weaker than anticipated and may be too subtle for detection given the widespread use of sparse water temperature datasets or imprecise surrogates like elevation and air temperature. Through application of large water-temperature databases evaluated for sensitivity to historical air-temperature variability and computationally interpolated to provide high-resolution thermal habitat information for a 222,000-km network, we estimate a less dire thermal plight for cold-water species within mountains of the northwestern United States. Stream warming rates and climate velocities were both relatively low for 1968–2011 (average warming rate = 0.101 °C/decade; median velocity = 1.07 km/decade) when air temperatures warmed at 0.21 °C/decade. Many cold-water vertebrate species occurred in a subset of the network characterized by low climate velocities, and three native species of conservation concern occurred in extremely cold, slow velocity environments (0.33–0.48 km/decade). Examination of aggressive warming scenarios indicated that although network climate velocities could increase, they remain low in headwaters because of strong local temperature gradients associated with topographic controls. Better information about changing hydrology and disturbance regimes is needed to complement these results, but rather than being climatic cul-de-sacs, many mountain streams appear poised to be redoubts for cold-water biodiversity this century.

The cold-water climate shield: Delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century - Isaak, Daniel J.; Young, Michael K.; Nagel, David E.; Horan, Dona L.; Groce, Matthew C. (Global Change Biology, 2015)
Keywords: bull trout climate change cutthroat trout invasive species refugia salmonid species distribution stream temperature

The cold‐water climate shield: Delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century - Isaak, Daniel J.; Young, Michael K.; Nagel, David E.; Horan, Dona L.; Groce, Matthew C. (Global Change Biology, 2015)
The distribution and future fate of ectothermic organisms in a warming world will be dictated by thermalscapes across landscapes. That is particularly true for stream fishes and cold‐water species like trout, salmon, and char that are already constrained to high elevations and latitudes. The extreme climates in those environments also preclude invasions by most non‐native species, so identifying especially cold habitats capable of absorbing future climate change while still supporting native populations would highlight important refugia. By coupling crowd‐sourced biological datasets with high‐resolution stream temperature scenarios, we delineate network refugia across >250 000 stream km in the Northern Rocky Mountains for two native salmonids—bull trout (BT) and cutthroat trout (CT). Under both moderate and extreme climate change scenarios, refugia with high probabilities of trout population occupancy (>0.9) were predicted to exist (33–68 BT refugia; 917–1425 CT refugia). Most refugia are on public lands (>90%) where few currently have protected status in National Parks or Wilderness Areas (<15%). Forecasts of refuge locations could enable protection of key watersheds and provide a foundation for climate smart planning of conservation networks. Using cold water as a ‘climate shield’ is generalizable to other species and geographic areas because it has a strong physiological basis, relies on nationally available geospatial data, and mines existing biological datasets. Importantly, the approach creates a framework to integrate data contributed by many individuals and resource agencies, and a process that strengthens the collaborative and social networks needed to preserve many cold‐water fish populations through the 21st century.

Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980–2010 - Isaksen, Tania Busch; Fenske, Richard A.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Yost, Michael G. (International Journal of Biometeorology, 2016)
Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980–2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10 % (1.10 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69 % (95 % CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0 °C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat’s intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45–64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks.

Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990–2010 - Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost Michael, G.; Hom Elizabeth, K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Fenske Richard, A. (Reviews on Environmental Health, 2015)

Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario framework for climate change research - Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi (Environmental Research Letters, 2014)
This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ∼ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study.

Bounce Forward: Urban Resilience in the Era of Climate Change - Island Press (Island Press and the Kresge Foundation, 2015)

Bienvenue, Aiokpanchi, Welcome to Isle de Jean Charles [web site] - Isle de Jean Charles Tribe (2017)

Impact of soil erosion and degradation on water quality: A review - Issaka, Sakinatu; Ashraf, Muhammad Aqeel (Geology, Ecology, and Landscapes, 2017)