Changes in weather and climate extremes: State of knowledge relevant to air and water quality in the United States - Peterson, Thomas C.; Karl, Thomas R.; Kossin, James P.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Lawrimore, Jay H.; McMahon, James R.; Vose, Russell S.; Yin, Xungang (Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 2014)
Ch7

Climate Variability and Change with Implications for Transportation. Commissioned paper for TRB Special report 290 - Peterson, Thomas C.; McGuirk, Marjorie; Houston, Tamara G.; Horvitz, Andrew H.; Wehner, Michael F. (Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation, 2006)

The Blob (part three): Going, going, gone? - Peterson, William; Bond, Nicholas; Robert, Marie (PICES Press, 2015)

Applied fisheries oceanography: Ecosystem indicators of ocean conditions inform fisheries management in the California Current - Peterson, William T.; Fisher, Jennifer L.; Peterson, Jay O.; Morgan, Cheryl A.; Burke, Brian J.; Fresh, Kurt L. (Oceanography, 2014)

Multiple trigger points for quantifying heat-health impacts: New evidence from a hot climate - Petitti, Diana B.; Hondula, David M.; Yang, Shuo; Harlan, Sharon L.; Chowell, Gerardo (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2016)

Climate Change Will Likely Test the Resilience of Corporates' Creditworthiness to Natural Catastrophes - Petkov, Miroslav; Wilkins, Michael; Xie, Xenia (Standard & Poor's Financial Services, 2015)

Climate change and health on the U.S. Gulf Coast: Public health adaptation is needed to address future risks - Petkova, Elisaveta; Ebi, Kristie; Culp, Derrin; Redlener, Irwin (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2015)

Heat and mortality in New York City since the beginning of the 20th century - Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Kinney, Patrick L. (Epidemiology, 2014)
Ch2

Projected heat-related mortality in the U.S. urban northeast - Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Kinney, Patrick L. (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2013)
Ch2

Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: Estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios - Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2017)
BACKGROUND:: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. OBJECTIVES:: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. METHODS:: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RESULTS:: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. CONCLUSIONS:: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

Protective factors for mental health and well-being in a changing climate: Perspectives from Inuit youth in Nunatsiavut, Labrador - Petrasek MacDonald, Joanna; Cunsolo Willox, Ashlee; Ford, James D.; Shiwak, Inez; Wood, Michele (Social Science & Medicine, 2015)
Keywords: Nunatsiavut Adaptation Climate change Inuit Mental health and wellbeing Protective factors Resilience Youth

Louisiana's 2012 coastal master plan: Overview of a science-based and publicly informed decision-making process - Peyronnin, Natalie; Green, Mandy; Richards, Carol Parsons; Owens, Alaina; Reed, Denise; Chamberlain, Joanne; Groves, David G.; Rhinehart, William K.; Belhadjali, Karim (Journal of Coastal Research, 2013)

Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise - Pfeffer, W.T.; Harper, J.T.; O'Neel, S. (Science, 2008)
On the basis of climate modeling and analogies with past conditions, the potential for multimeter increases in sea level by the end of the 21st century has been proposed. We consider glaciological conditions required for large sea- level rise to occur by 2100 and conclude that increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable. We find that a total sea- level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits. More plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to total sea- level rise by 2100 of about 0.8 meter. These roughly constrained scenarios provide a "most likely" starting point for refinements in sea- level forecasts that include ice flow dynamics.
Keywords: greenland ice-sheet; large tidewater glacier; hydrologic basis; rapid motion; discharge

Observations and modeling of aboveground tree carbon stocks and fluxes following a bark beetle outbreak in the western United States - Pfeifer, Eric M.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Meddens, Arjan J. H. (Global Change Biology, 2011)
Keywords: bark beetle carbon storage Dendroctonus ponderosae forest disturbance forest growth simulation forest vegetation simulator insect outbreak Pinus contorta

Impacts of the fall 2007 California wildfires on surface ozone: Integrating local observations with global model simulations - Pfister, G.G.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Emmons, L.K. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2008)

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Strategies - PG&E (Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), 2016)

Making it personal: Diversity and deliberation in climate adaptation planning - Phadke, Roopali; Manning, Christie; Burlager, Samantha (Climate Risk Management, 2015)
Keywords: Boundary organizations Citizen participation Climate adaptation Environmental justice Public Engagement Community-based research

Percentage of U.S. Donations Going to Various Causes [Graph 2 on web page] - Philanthropy Roundtable (Philanthropy Roundtable, 2018)

A case study: A fisher's cooperative in lower Plaquemines Parish as an avenue for integrating social equity into coastal management - Philippe, R. (Coastal Footprints: Minimizing Human Impacts, Maximizing Stewardship, 2008)

Life‐history evolution in range‐shifting populations - Phillips, Benjamin L.; Brown, Gregory P.; Shine, Richard (Ecology, 2010)
Most evolutionary theory does not deal with populations expanding or contracting in space. Invasive species, climate change, epidemics, and the breakdown of dispersal barriers, however, all create populations in this kind of spatial disequilibrium. Importantly, spatial disequilibrium can have important ecological and evolutionary outcomes. During continuous range expansion, for example, populations on the expanding front experience novel evolutionary pressures because frontal populations are assorted by dispersal ability and have a lower density of conspecifics than do core populations. These conditions favor the evolution of traits that increase rates of dispersal and reproduction. Additionally, lowered density on the expanding front eventually frees populations on the expanding edge from specialist, coevolved enemies, permitting higher investment into traits associated with dispersal and reproduction rather than defense against pathogens. As a result, the process of range expansion drives rapid life‐history evolution, and this seems to occur despite ongoing serial founder events that have complex effects on genetic diversity at the expanding front. Traits evolving on the expanding edge are smeared across the landscape as the front moves through, leaving an ephemeral signature of range expansion in the life‐history traits of a species across its newly colonized range. Recent studies suggest that such nonequilibrium processes during recent population history may have contributed to many patterns usually ascribed to evolutionary forces acting in populations at spatial equilibrium.

Lessons in leadership: How the world’s largest medical center braced for Hurricane Harvey - Phillips, Robert A.; Schwartz, Roberta L.; McKeon, William F.; Boom, Marc L. (NEJM Catalyst, 2017)

When Leaders Won’t Lead: Taking Action on Climate Change - Piacentini, R. (2017)
Keywords: added by ERG

Joint Ministerial Statement on the Effects of Drought on Schools and Agriculture - Pickersgill, Robert (Jamaica Information Service, 2014)

Habitat-specific distinctions in estuarine denitrification affect both ecosystem function and services - Piehler, M. F.; Smyth, A. R. (Ecosphere, 2011)
Resource limitation controls the base of food webs in many aquatic ecosystems. In coastal ecosystems, nitrogen (N) has been found to be the predominant limiting factor for primary producers. Due to the important role nitrogen plays in determining ecosystem function, understanding the processes that modulate its availability is critical. Shallow-water estuarine systems are highly heterogeneous. In temperate estuaries, multiple habitat types can exist in close proximity to one another, their distribution controlled primarily by physical energy, tidal elevation and geomorphology. Distinctions between these habitats such as rates of primary productivity and sediment characteristics likely affect material processing. We used membrane inlet mass spectrometry to measure changes in N2 flux (referred to here as denitrification) in multiple shallow-water estuarine habitats through an annual cycle. We found significantly higher rates of denitrification (DNF) in structured habitats such as submerged aquatic vegetation, salt marshes and oyster reefs than in intertidal and subtidal flats. Seasonal patterns were also observed, with higher DNF rates occurring in the warmer seasons. Additionally, there was an interaction between habitat type and season that we attributed to the seasonal patterns of enhanced productivity in individual habitat types. There was a strong correlation between denitrification and sediment oxygen demand (SOD) in all habitats and all seasons, suggesting the potential to utilize SOD to predict DNF. Denitrification efficiency was also higher in the structured habitats than in the flats. Nitrogen removal by these habitats was found to be an important contributor to estuarine ecosystem function. The ecosystem service of DNF in each habitat was evaluated in US dollars using rates from a regional nutrient-offset market to determine the cost to replace N through management efforts. Habitat-specific values of N removal ranged from approximately three thousand U.S. dollars per acre per year in the submerged aquatic vegetation to approximately four hundred U.S. dollars per acre per year in the subtidal flat. Because of the link between habitat type and processes such as DNF, changes in habitat area and distribution will have consequences for both ecosystem function and the delivery of ecosystem services.

Land use and climate change - Pielke, R.A., Sr. (Science, 2005)

An overview of regional land-use and land-cover impacts on rainfall - Pielke, R. A., Sr.; Adegoke, J.; BeltráN-Przekurat, A.; Hiemstra, C. A.; Lin, J.; Nair, U. S.; Niyogi, D.; Nobis, T. E. (Tellus B, 2007)

Land use/land cover changes and climate: Modeling analysis and observational evidence - Pielke Sr., Roger A; Pitman, Andy; Niyogi, Dev; Mahmood, Rezaul; McAlpine, Clive; Hossain, Faisal; Goldewijk, Kees Klein; Nair, Udaysankar; Betts, Richard; Fall, Souleymane; Reichstein, Markus; Kabat, Pavel; et al. (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2011)

Attribution of declining western US snowpack to human effects - Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Das, T.; Bonfils, C.; Santer, B.D.; Bala, G.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Mirin, A.; Wood, A. W.; Nozawa, T. (Journal of Climate, 2008)
Observations show snowpack has declined across much of the western United States over the period 1950–99. This reduction has important social and economic implications, as water retained in the snowpack from winter storms forms an important part of the hydrological cycle and water supply in the region. A formal model-based detection and attribution (D–A) study of these reductions is performed. The detection variable is the ratio of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) to water-year-to-date precipitation (P), chosen to reduce the effect of P variability on the results. Estimates of natural internal climate variability are obtained from 1600 years of two control simulations performed with fully coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models. Estimates of the SWE/P response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and some aerosols are taken from multiple-member ensembles of perturbation experiments run with two models. The D–A shows the observations and anthropogenically forced models have greater SWE/P reductions than can be explained by natural internal climate variability alone. Model-estimated effects of changes in solar and volcanic forcing likewise do not explain the SWE/P reductions. The mean model estimate is that about half of the SWE/P reductions observed in the west from 1950 to 1999 are the result of climate changes forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and aerosols.
Keywords: Snowpack,; Hydrologic cycle,; Trends,; Coupled models,; Greenhouse gases

The uneven response of different snow measures to human-induced climate warming - Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R. (Journal of Climate, 2013)
The effect of human-induced climate warming on different snow measures in the western United States is compared by calculating the time required to achieve a statistically significant linear trend in the different measures, using time series derived from regionally downscaled global climate models. The measures examined include the water content of the spring snowpack, total cold-season snowfall, fraction of winter precipitation that falls as snow, length of the snow season, and fraction of cold-season precipitation retained in the spring snowpack, as well as temperature and precipitation. Various stakeholders may be interested in different sets of these variables. It is found that temperature and the fraction of winter precipitation that falls as snow exhibit significant trends first, followed in 5–10 years by the fraction of cold-season precipitation retained in the spring snowpack, and later still by the water content of the spring snowpack. Change in total cold-season snowfall is least detectable of all the measures, since it is strongly linked to precipitation, which has large natural variability and only a weak anthropogenic trend in the western United States. Averaging over increasingly wider areas monotonically increases the signal-to-noise ratio of the 1950–2025 linear trend from 0.15 to 0.37, depending on the snow measure.
Keywords: Climate change,Climate sensitivity,Snow cover

Statistical downscaling using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) - Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Thrasher, Bridget L. (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2014)
A new technique for statistically downscaling climate model simulations of daily temperature and precipitation is introduced and demonstrated over the western United States. The localized constructed analogs (LOCA) method produces downscaled estimates suitable for hydrological simulations using a multiscale spatial matching scheme to pick appropriate analog days from observations. First, a pool of candidate observed analog days is chosen by matching the model field to be downscaled to observed days over the region that is positively correlated with the point being downscaled, which leads to a natural independence of the downscaling results to the extent of the domain being downscaled. Then, the one candidate analog day that best matches in the local area around the grid cell being downscaled is the single analog day used there. Most grid cells are downscaled using only the single locally selected analog day, but locations whose neighboring cells identify a different analog day use a weighted combination of the center and adjacent analog days to reduce edge discontinuities. By contrast, existing constructed analog methods typically use a weighted average of the same 30 analog days for the entire domain. By greatly reducing this averaging, LOCA produces better estimates of extreme days, constructs a more realistic depiction of the spatial coherence of the downscaled field, and reduces the problem of producing too many light-precipitation days. The LOCA method is more computationally expensive than existing constructed analog techniques, but it is still practical for downscaling numerous climate model simulations with limited computational resources.
Keywords: Hydrometeorology,Climate models,Hydrologic models,Land surface model,Atmosphere-land interaction,Regional effects

Traditional ecological knowledge: The third alternative (commentary) - Pierotti, Raymond; Wildcat, Daniel (Ecological Applications, 2000)
Keywords: belief system conservation ecology environment Indian indigenous Native American resource management Traditional Ecological Knowledge

Climate Change and Vector-Borne Disease - Piloting Climate Change Adaptation to Protect Human Health (PCCAPHH) (Workshop on Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases, 2015)

Climate changes and food supply - Pimentel, David (Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy, 1993)

Soil erosion threatens food production - Pimentel, David; Burgess, Michael (Agriculture, 2013)

Urban heat stress vulnerability in the US Southwest: The role of sociotechnical systems - Pincetl, S.; Chester, M.; Eisenman, D. (Sustainability, 2016)
Heat vulnerability of urban populations is becoming a major issue of concern with climate change, particularly in the cities of the Southwest United States. In this article we discuss the importance of understanding coupled social and technical systems, how they constitute one another, and how they form the conditions and circumstances in which people experience heat. We discuss the particular situation of Los Angeles and Maricopa Counties, their urban form and the electric grid. We show how vulnerable populations are created by virtue of the age and construction of buildings, the morphology of roads and distribution of buildings on the landscape. Further, the regulatory infrastructure of electricity generation and distribution also contributes to creating differential vulnerability. We contribute to a better understanding of the importance of sociotechnical systems. Social infrastructure includes codes, conventions, rules and regulations; technical systems are the hard systems of pipes, wires, buildings, roads, and power plants. These interact to create lock-in that is an obstacle to addressing issues such as urban heat stress in a novel and equitable manner.
Pincetl, Stephanie Chester, Mikhail Eisenman, David
Keywords: SW Vulnerability Urban Heat Infrastructure

The use and misuse of models for climate policy - Pindyck, Robert S. (Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2017)
In recent articles I have argued that integrated assessment models (IAMs) have flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory and can fool policymakers into thinking that the forecasts the models generate have some kind of scientific legitimacy. However, some economists and climate scientists have claimed that we need to use some kind of model for policy analysis and that IAMs can be structured and used in ways that correct for their shortcomings. For example, it has been argued that although we know very little about key relationships in the model, we can get around this problem by attaching probability distributions to various parameters and then simulating the model using Monte Carlo methods. I argue that this would buy us nothing and that a simpler and more transparent approach to the design of climate change policy is preferable. I briefly outline what such an approach would look like.
10.1093/reep/rew012

Lagged social–ecological responses to climate and range shifts in fisheries - Pinsky, Malin L.; Fogarty, Michael (Climatic Change, 2012)

Emerging adaptation approaches for climate-ready fisheries management - Pinsky, Malin L.; Mantua, Nathan J. (Oceanography, 2014)

Marine taxa track local climate velocities - Pinsky, Malin L.; Worm, Boris; Fogarty, Michael J.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Levin, Simon A. (Science, 2013)
Early responses of species to climate change seemed to predict a general poleward response (or upward in mountains and downward in the ocean). Pinsky et al. (p. 1239) test an alternative hypothesis that relates more to the nature of climate change than to changes in temperature. Using nearly 50 years of coastal survey data on >350 marine taxa, they found that climate velocity was a much better predictor of patterns of change than individual species' characteristics or life histories. The findings suggest that responses to climate change largely track changes in local conditions.Organisms are expected to adapt or move in response to climate change, but observed distribution shifts span a wide range of directions and rates. Explanations often emphasize biological distinctions among species, but general mechanisms have been elusive. We tested an alternative hypothesis: that differences in climate velocity—the rate and direction that climate shifts across the landscape—can explain observed species shifts. We compiled a database of coastal surveys around North America from 1968 to 2011, sampling 128 million individuals across 360 marine taxa. Climate velocity explained the magnitude and direction of shifts in latitude and depth much more effectively than did species characteristics. Our results demonstrate that marine species shift at different rates and directions because they closely track the complex mosaic of local climate velocities.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/341/6151/1239.full.pdf

Adaptation of agricultural and food systems to a changing climate and increasing urbanization - Pitesky, Maurice; Gunasekara, Amrith; Cook, Carolyn; Mitloehner, Frank (Current Sustainable/Renewable Energy Reports, 2014)
Climate change will pose risks for the world’s food supply in the coming decades; this comes at a time when the global demand for food is expected to soar based on 2050 world population estimates. It is important to recognize that climate change will necessitate temporal and geographical shifts in food production, but will most likely not result in the collapse of our food systems. However, because of differences in the severity of how climate change will affect agriculture, regional and temporal changes in production and harvest-time will challenge the existing and sometimes outdated agricultural infrastructure with respect to collection, storage, transportation, and distribution of food. Increasing regional and global urbanization will further perturb these systems. Adaptation to climate change with respect to crop and food animal production will have to occur at multiple temporal, seasonal, and geospatial levels. Other major adaptation measures will have to occur with respect to crop selection, genetics, CO2 and temperature sensitivity, and resilience of crops and food animals, water resources, and mitigation of invasive species. Technology, including sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based modeling, coupled with publically available soil and weather data that help farmers optimize production and conservation will be essential toward adaptation. Communication of this type of localized technical information to agricultural stakeholders by national, federal, and state entities is beginning to occur in order to help farmers adapt and prepare for extreme events associated with climate change. As the largest agricultural state in the USA, California has developed a robust mitigation and adaptation strategy that may be useful for other nation-states.

Importance of background climate in determining impact of land-cover change on regional climate - Pitman, A.J.; Avila, F.B.; Abramowitz, G.; Wang, Y.P.; Phipps, S.J.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. (Nature Climate Change, 2011)

The influence of declining sea ice on shipping activity in the Canadian arctic - Pizzolato, Larissa; Howell, Stephen E. L.; Dawson, Jackie; Laliberté, Frédéric; Copland, Luke (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: sea ice shipping marine transportation climate change Arctic Canada 0750 Sea ice 1621 Cryospheric change 1635 Oceans 1926 Geospatial 9315 Arctic region

Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian arctic waters between 1990 and 2012 - Pizzolato, Larissa; Howell, Stephen E. L.; Derksen, Chris; Dawson, Jackie; Copland, Luke (Climatic Change, 2014)
Declining sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic has gained significant attention with respect to the prospect of increased shipping activities. To investigate relationships between recent declines in sea ice area with Arctic maritime activity, trend and correlation analysis was performed on sea ice area data for total, first-year ice (FYI), and multi-year ice (MYI), and on a comprehensive shipping dataset of observed vessel transits through the Vessel Traffic Reporting Arctic Canada Traffic Zone (NORDREG zone) from 1990 to 2012. Links to surface air temperature (SAT) and the satellite derived melt season length were also investigated. Between 1990 and 2012, statistically significant increases in vessel traffic were observed within the NORDREG zone on monthly and annual time-scales coincident with declines in sea ice area (FYI, MYI, and total ice) during the shipping season and on a monthly basis. Similarly, the NORDREG zone is experiencing increased shoulder season shipping activity, alongside an increasing melt season length and warming surface air temperatures (SAT). Despite these trends, only weak correlations between the variables were identified, although a step increase in shipping activity is apparent following the former summer sea ice extent minimum in 2007. Other non-environmental factors have also likely contributed to the observed increase in Arctic shipping activity within the Canadian Arctic, such as tourism demand, community re-supply needs, and resource exploration trends.

Greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels’ indirect land use change are uncertain but may be much greater than previously estimated - Plevin, Richard J; O'Hare, Michael; Jones, Andrew D; Torn, Margaret S; Gibbs, Holly K (Environmental Science & Technology, 2010)

Evidence for increased monoculture cropping in the Central United States - Plourde, James D.; Pijanowski, Bryan C.; Pekin, Burak K. (Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2013)
Keywords: Cropland data layer Crop footprint changes Crop rotation

The use of traditional Hawaiian knowledge in the contemporary management of marine resources - Poepoe, Kelson K.; Bartram, Paul K.; Friedlander, Alan M. (Fisheries Centre Research Reports, 2002)
It is traditional for Hawaiians to “consult nature” so that fishing is practiced at times and places, and with gear that causes minimum disruption of natural biological and ecological processes. The Ho‘olehua Hawaiian Homestead continues this tradition in and around Mo‘omomi Bay on the northwest coast of the island of Moloka‘i. This community relies heavily on inshore marine resources for subsistence and consequently, has an intimate knowledge of these resources. The shared knowledge, beliefs, and values of the community are culturally channeled to promote proper fishing behavior. This informal system brings more knowledge, experience, and moral commitment to fishery conservation than more centralized government management.

Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling - Poff, N. LeRoy; Brown, Casey M.; Grantham, Theodore E.; Matthews, John H.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Spence, Caitlin M.; Wilby, Robert L.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mendoza, Guillermo F.; Dominique, Kathleen C.; Baeza, Andres (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Aquatic Ecosystems & Global Climate Change: Potential Impacts on Inland Freshwater and Coastal Wetland Ecosystems in the United States - Poff, N.L.R.; Brinson, M.M.; Day, J.W. (Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2002)

Pohnpei Joint State Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change - Pohnpei State (2015)

Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions - Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Pierce, David W. (Scientific Reports, 2017)
In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California’s more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes - Polade, Suraj D.; Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Gershunov, Alexander; Dettinger, Michael D. (Scientific Reports, 2014)

Leaf-out phenology of temperate woody plants: From trees to ecosystems - Polgar, Caroline A.; Primack, Richard B. (New Phytologist, 2011)
Keywords: budburst climate change leaf-out phenology temperate forests

Climate change and North American rangelands: Trends, projections, and implications - Polley, H. Wayne; Briske, David D.; Morgan, Jack A.; Wolter, Klaus; Bailey, Derek W.; Brown, Joel R. (Rangeland Ecology & Management, 2013)
Keywords: atmospheric CO atmospheric warming climate variability greenhouse gases livestock production precipitation patterns

Global imprint of climate change on marine life - Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Schoeman, David S.; Moore, Pippa J.; Brander, Keith; Bruno, John F.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

Responses of marine organisms to climate change across oceans - Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Burrows, Michael T.; Brown, Christopher J.; García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Kappel, Carrie V.; Moore, Pippa J.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J. (Frontiers in Marine Science, 2016)
Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species’ responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including poleward and deeper distributional shifts, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence of species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with much evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of marine biological impacts of climate change are of the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters) or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).
Keywords: Climate Change,Range shifts,Phenology,ocean acidification,Demography,abundance

Open ocean systems - Polovina, Jeffrey; Hobday, Alistair J.; Koslow, J. Anthony; Saba, Vincent S. (Marine Ecosystem-based Management, 2014)

Fishery-induced changes in the subtropical Pacific pelagic ecosystem size structure: Observations and theory - Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A. (PLOS ONE, 2013)
We analyzed a 16-year (1996–2011) time series of catch and effort data for 23 species with mean weights ranging from 0.8 kg to 224 kg, recorded by observers in the Hawaii-based deep-set longline fishery. Over this time period, domestic fishing effort, as numbers of hooks set in the core Hawaii-based fishing ground, has increased fourfold. The standardized aggregated annual catch rate for 9 small (<15 kg) species increased about 25% while for 14 large species (>15 kg) it decreased about 50% over the 16-year period. A size-based ecosystem model for the subtropical Pacific captures this pattern well as a response to increased fishing effort. Further, the model projects a decline in the abundance of fishes larger than 15 kg results in an increase in abundance of animals from 0.1 to 15 kg but with minimal subsequent cascade to sizes smaller than 0.1 kg. These results suggest that size-based predation plays a key role in structuring the subtropical ecosystem. These changes in ecosystem size structure show up in the fishery in various ways. The non-commercial species lancetfish (mean weight 7 kg) has now surpassed the target species, bigeye tuna, as the species with the highest annual catch rate. Based on the increase in snake mackerel (mean weight 0.8 kg) and lancetfish catches, the discards in the fishery are estimated to have increased from 30 to 40% of the total catch.
Keywords: Ecosystems Ecosystem modeling Fish physiology Fisheries science Predation Sharks Snakes Tuna

Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydroclimatic conditions - Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Moran, M. Susan; Huete, Alfredo; Zhang, Yongguang; Bresloff, Cynthia; Huxman, Travis E.; Eamus, Derek; Bosch, David D.; Buda, Anthony R.; Gunter, Stacey A.; Scalley, Tamara Heartsill; Kitchen, Stanley G.; et al. (Nature, 2013)

Design Guidelines Climate Resilience. v1.1 June 2018 - Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, Engineering Department, 2015)

A New Strategy for Understanding Giardiasis in Alaska - Porter, Kimberly; Provo, Ginger; Franklin, Tricia; Ross, Kathy ([State of Alaska] Epidemiology Bulletin, 2011)

Climate Change Impacts on Transportation in the Midwest. White Paper Prepared for the USGCRP National Climate Assessment: Midwest Technical Input Report - Posey, John (Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center, 2012)

St. Louis in the Anthropocene: Responding to Global Environmental Change - Posey, John (St. Louis Currents: The Fifth Edition, 2016)

Implications of earlier sea ice melt for phenological cascades in arctic marine food webs - Post, Eric (Food Webs, 2017)

Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline - Post, E.; Bhatt, U. S.; Bitz, C. M.; Brodie, J. F.; Fulton, T. L.; Hebblewhite, M.; Kerby, J.; Kutz, S. J.; Stirling, I.; Walker, D. A. (Science, 2013)
After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.
Post, Eric Bhatt, Uma S Bitz, Cecilia M Brodie, Jedediah F Fulton, Tara L Hebblewhite, Mark Kerby, Jeffrey Kutz, Susan J Stirling, Ian Walker, Donald A Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Review United States Science. 2013 Aug 2;341(6145):519-24. doi: 10.1126/science.1235225.
Keywords: Animals Aquatic Organisms Arctic Regions Climate Change Humans Ice Cover Invertebrates Plant Development Seawater Vertebrates

Report: More than 650K acres burned across Kansas - Post Staff (Hutch Post [KS], 2017)

Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050 - Potter, Lloyd B.; Hoque, Nazrul (Texas Office of the State Demographer, 2014)

Safeguarding pollinators and their values to human well-being - Potts, Simon G.; Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera; Ngo, Hien T.; Aizen, Marcelo A.; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.; Breeze, Thomas D.; Dicks, Lynn V.; Garibaldi, Lucas A.; Hill, Rosemary; Settele, Josef; Vanbergen, Adam J. (Nature, 2016)

A synthesis of thresholds for focal species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts: A review of research and applications - Powell, Emily J.; Tyrrell, Megan C.; Milliken, Andrew; Tirpak, John M.; Staudinger, Michelle D. (Ocean & Coastal Management, 2017)
Keywords: Sea level rise Coastal storms Flooding Inundation Coastal adaptation

The value of captains’ behavioral choices in the success of the surf clam (Spisula solidissima) fishery on the US Mid-Atlantic coast: A model evaluation - Powell, Eric N.; Klinck, John M.; Munroe, Daphne M.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Moreno, Paula; Mann, Roger (Journal Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Science, 2015)

Methods for determining minimum freshwater inflow needs of Texas bays and estuaries - Powell, Gary L.; Matsumoto, Junji; Brock, David A. (Estuaries, 2002)
In response to legislative directives beginning in 1975, the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) jointly established and currently maintain a data collection and analytical study program focused on determining the effects of and needs for freshwater inflows into the state's 10 bay and estuary systems. Study elements include hydrographic surveys, hydrodynamic modeling of circulation and salinity patterns, sediment analyses, nutrient analyses, fisheries analyses, freshwater inflow optimization modeling, and verification of needs. For determining the needs, statistical regression models are developed among freshwater inflows, salinities, and coastal fisheries. Results from the models and analyses are placed into the Texas Estuarine Mathematical Programming (TxEMP) model, along with information on salinity viability limits, nutrient budgets, fishery biomass ratios, and inflow bounds. The numerical relationships are solved within the constraints and limits, and optimized to meet state management objectives for maintenance of biological productivity and overall ecological health. Solution curves from the TxEMP model are verified by TWDB’s hydrodynamic simulation of estuarine circulation and salinity structure, which is evaluated against TPWD’s analysis of species abundance and distribution patterns in each bay and estuary system. An adequate system-wide match initially verifies the inflow solution. Long-term monitoring is recommended in order to verify that implementation of future water management strategies maintain ecological health of the estuaries and to provide an early warning of needs for adaptive management strategies.

Decadal dynamics and predictability of oxygen and subsurface tracers in the California Current System - Pozo Buil, Mercedes; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: Subsurface Decadal variability California Current System Oxygen and tracers anomalies Predictability dynamics 4279 Upwelling and convergences 4283 Water masses 4513 Decadal ocean variability

North Pacific deglacial hypoxic events linked to abrupt ocean warming - Praetorius, S. K.; Mix, A. C.; Walczak, M. H.; Wolhowe, M. D.; Addison, J. A.; Prahl, F. G. (Nature, 2015)

Examining farm sector and farm household income - Prager, Daniel; Burns, Christopher; Key, Nigel (Amber Waves, 2017)

Heat stress and dairy cow: Impact on both milk yield and composition - Pragna, Prathap; Archana, P.R.; Aleena, Joy; Sejian, Veerasamy; Krishnan, Govindan; Bagath, Madiajagan; Manimaran, A.; Beena, V.; Kurien, E.K.; Varma, Girish; Bhatta, Raghavendra (International Journal of Dairy Science, 2017)

A stochastic nonparametric approach for streamflow generation combining observational and paleoreconstructed data - Prairie, James; Nowak, Kenneth; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Lall, Upmanu; Fulp, Terrance (Water Resources Research, 2008)
Keywords: simulation nonparametric Colorado River 1869 Stochastic hydrology 1807 Climate impacts 1817 Extreme events

Fiscal Year 2010 Consulting Engineer's Report for the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority - PRASA (Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA), 2011)

Fiscal Year 2013 Consulting Engineer's Report for the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority - PRASA (Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA), 2014)

Cambio Climático Plan de Adaptación–Tarea 3 [Climate Change Adaptation Plan] - PRASA (Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA), 2015)

Effects of climate-induced coral bleaching on coral-reef fishes — Ecological and economic consequences - Pratchett, Morgan S.; Munday, Philip L.; Wilson, Shaun K.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Cinner, Joshua E.; Bellwood, David R.; Jones, Geoffrey P.; Polunin, Nicholas V.C.; McClanahan, Tim R. (Oceanography and Marine Biology. An Annual Review, Volume 46, 2008)

Economic impacts of invasive alien species on African smallholder livelihoods - Pratt, Corin F.; Constantine, Kate L.; Murphy, Sean T. (Global Food Security, 2017)
Keywords: Invasive alien species Economic losses Smallholder Agriculture Eastern Africa Livelihoods

Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks - Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Robson, Craig; Glenis, Vassilis; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard (Royal Society Open Science, 2016)
Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3–22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed a far higher benefit–cost threshold than transport infrastructure investments. By capturing the value to the transport network from flood management interventions, it is possible to create new business models that provide benefits to, and enhance the resilience of, both transport and flood risk management infrastructures. Further work will develop the framework to consider other hazards and infrastructure networks.%U http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royopensci/3/5/160023.full.pdf
not US but could apply
Keywords: Infrastructure Adaptation Urban

Running dry: The U.S. Southwest's drift into a drier climate state - Prein, Andreas F.; Holland, Gregory J.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Clark, Martyn P.; Tye, Mari R. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: U.S. droughts precipitation extremes U.S. Southwest weather types 1620 Climate dynamics 1637 Regional climate change 1812 Drought 3354 Precipitation 4313 Extreme events

Analysis and out-year forecast of beetle, borer, and drought-induced tree mortality in California - Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Grulke, Nancy E.; Heath, Zachary; Smith, Sheri L. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2017)
Keywords: Bark beetle outbreak Drought Fuels reduction Forest planning Generalized additive models Predictive tool

Build Back Better: Reimagining and Strengthening the Power Grid of Puerto Rico - PRERWG (Puerto Rico Energy Resiliency Working Group (PRERWG), 2017)

An economic assessment of mountain pine beetle timber salvage in the West - Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Abt, Karen L.; Potter, Kevin M.; Koch, Frank H. (Western Journal of Applied Forestry, 2013)
The mountain pine beetle has killed lodgepole pine and other species of pines in the western United States in an ongoing epidemic. The most heavily affected states are in the interior West: Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, with smaller losses elsewhere. Timber salvage is one response to the epidemic, which could generate revenues for affected landowners and provide wood to forest product manufacturers and, potentially, energy producers. Salvage is occurring, but policymakers have advocated greater rates of such timber removals. To estimate total costs and revenues from salvage and thereby illuminate the economic dimensions of greater salvage removals, we simulated alternative salvage intensity levels on national forests and on other public and private lands where dead standing timber could be potentially recovered and entered into product markets. Data indicate that 19.7 billion cubic feet of standing dead timber are potentially available for salvage, distributed across 20.3 million acres in 12 western states. Simulations on national forests and on lands under other ownerships indicate that positive net revenues (revenues minus costs) could be produced in states with active timber markets on the West Coast and in the northern Rockies, where timber prices would be less depressed by the introduction of large salvage volumes. The central Rocky Mountain states of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, which have the largest percentage volume and acreage impacts from salvable standing dead timber, would not generate profitable timber salvage. Simulations of a hypothetical doubling of demand in Colorado and Montana leave Colorado with smaller losses and Montana with larger gains.
Keywords: epidemic insects markets spatial equilibrium wood products

Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011–60 - Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Shankar, Uma; Xiu, Aijun; Talgo, K.; Yang, D.; Dixon, Ernest; McKenzie, Donald; Abt, Karen L. (International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2016)
Future changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the south-eastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect wildfire in the coming decades. We estimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (1992–2010) based on precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, forest land use, human population and personal income. Estimated parameters from the statistical models were used to project wildfire area burned from 2011 to 2060 under nine climate realisations, using a combination of three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-based emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, B2) and three general circulation models. Monte Carlo simulation quantifies ranges in projected area burned by county by year, and in total for higher-level spatial aggregations. Projections indicated, overall in the Southeast, that median annual area burned by lightning-ignited wildfire increases by 34%, human-ignited wildfire decreases by 6%, and total wildfire increases by 4% by 2056–60 compared with 2016–20. Total wildfire changes vary widely by state (–47 to +30%) and ecoregion province (–73 to +79%). Our analyses could be used to generate projections of wildfire-generated air pollutant exposures, relevant to meeting the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.
Keywords: climate change, human-caused wildfire, land use, lightning-caused wildfire.

Local path dependence of US socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment - Preston, B. L. (Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 2013)
Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes, a process characterized by strong path dependence. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast (particularly coastal and urban counties) and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Using methods previously reported in the literature, annualized county-level losses from 1960 to 2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3-1.7 and 1.8-3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. The implications of increasing physical vulnerability to extreme weather events for investments in disaster risk management are ultimately contingent upon the normative values of societal actors. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Climate change Exposure

Climate adaptation planning in practice: An evaluation of adaptation plans from three developed nations - Preston, B.L.; Westaway, R.M.; Yuen, E.J. (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2011)

Climate change and invasion: Does a loss of ecological integrity affect the cultural expression of an indigenous culture? - Pretty Paint-Small, Valerie (Linking Culture, Ecology and Policy: The Invasion of Russian-Olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia L.) on the Crow Indian Reservation, South-Central Montana, USA, 2013)
PhD dissertation, CSU

Climate change accelerates growth of urban trees in metropolises worldwide - Pretzsch, Hans; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Dahlhausen, Jens; Schütze, Gerhard; Perkins, Diana; Rötzer, Thomas; Caldentey, Juan; Koike, Takayoshi; Con, Tran van; Chavanne, Aurélia; Toit, Ben du; et al. (Scientific Reports, 2017)
Despite the importance of urban trees, their growth reaction to climate change and to the urban heat island effect has not yet been investigated with an international scope. While we are well informed about forest growth under recent conditions, it is unclear if this knowledge can be simply transferred to urban environments. Based on tree ring analyses in ten metropolises worldwide, we show that, in general, urban trees have undergone accelerated growth since the 1960s. In addition, urban trees tend to grow more quickly than their counterparts in the rural surroundings. However, our analysis shows that climate change seems to enhance the growth of rural trees more than that of urban trees. The benefits of growing in an urban environment seem to outweigh known negative effects, however, accelerated growth may also mean more rapid ageing and shortened lifetime. Thus, city planners should adapt to the changed dynamics in order to secure the ecosystem services provided by urban trees.

The Mexican Citizens Fighting America's Fires [video] - Price-Waldman, Sam; Raff, Jeremy (Atlantic Documentaries, 2016)

Useful to usable: Developing usable climate science for agriculture - Prokopy, Linda Stalker; Carlton, J. Stuart; Haigh, Tonya; Lemos, Maria Carmen; Mase, Amber Saylor; Widhalm, Melissa (Climate Risk Management, 2017)
Keywords: Co-production Climate change Midwestern U.S. Corn producers Agricultural advisors Interdisciplinary

Vulnerability of coral reefs to bioerosion from land-based source of pollution - Prouty, Nancy G.; Cohen, Anne; Yates, Kimberly K.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Swarzenski, Peter W.; White, Darla (Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 2017)

Effects of the December 1983 and January 1985 freezing air temperatures on select aquatic poikilotherms and plant species of Merritt Island, Florida - Provancha, Mark J.; Schmalzer, Paul A.; Hall, Carlton R. (Florida Scientist, 1986)

River-ice break-up/freeze-up: A review of climatic drivers, historical trends and future predictions - Prowse, T. D.; Bonsal, B.R.; Duguay, C.R.; Lacroix, J. (Annals of Glaciology, 2007)

Climate-induced changes in erosion during the 21st century for eight U.S. locations - Pruski, F.F.; Nearing, M.A. (Water Resources Research, 2002)

Climate Change in the Midwest: Impacts, Risks, Vulnerability and Adaptation - Pryor, S.C. (Indiana University Press, 2013)

How spatially coherent and statistically robust are temporal changes in extreme precipitation in the contiguous USA? - Pryor, S. C.; Howe, J. A.; Kunkel, K. E. (International Journal of Climatology, 2009)

Obtaining tide gauge data - PSMSL (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, 2016)

Responding to coastal change: Creation of a regional approach to monitoring and management, northeastern region, U.S.A - Psuty, Norbert P.; Ames, Katherine; Habeck, Andrea; Schmelz, William (Ocean & Coastal Management, 2018)

Projection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change - Pu, Bing; Ginoux, Paul (Scientific Reports, 2017)
Climate models project rising drought risks over the southwestern and central U.S. in the twenty-first century due to increasing greenhouse gases. The projected drier regions largely overlay the major dust sources in the United States. However, whether dust activity in U.S. will increase in the future is not clear, due to the large uncertainty in dust modeling. This study found that changes of dust activity in the U.S. in the recent decade are largely associated with the variations of precipitation, soil bareness, and surface winds speed. Using multi-model output under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario, we project that climate change will increase dust activity in the southern Great Plains from spring to fall in the late half of the twenty-first century – largely due to reduced precipitation, enhanced land surface bareness, and increased surface wind speed. Over the northern Great Plains, less dusty days are expected in spring due to increased precipitation and reduced bareness. Given the large negative economic and societal consequences of severe dust storms, this study complements the multi-model projection on future dust variations and may help improve risk management and resource planning.

Puerto Rico’s State of the Climate 2010-2013: Assessing Puerto Rico’s Social-Ecological Vulnerabilities in a Changing Climate - Puerto Rico Climate Change Council (Puerto Rico Coastal Zone Management Program, 2013)

Working Group 2 report: Ecology and biodiversity - Puerto Rico Climate Change Council (Puerto Rico’s State of the Climate 2010-2013: Assessing Puerto Rico’s Social-Ecological Vulnerabilities in a Changing Climate, 2013)

Riesgos Costeros [Coastal Hazards] - Puerto Rico Coastal Zone Management Program (Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources (DRNA in Spanish), 2017)

Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (SCORP) for Puerto Rico 2013-2018 - Puerto Rico National Parks Company (Puerto Rico National Parks Company (CPNPR in Spanish), 2013)

Apéndice Estadístico Informe Económico al Gobernador y a la Asamblea Legislativa [Statistical Appendix of the Economic Report to the Governor and to the Legislative Assembly] 2016 - Puerto Rico Planning Board (Puerto Rico Planning Board, 2017)

Aviation Bureau Report Fiscal Year 2016 - Puerto Rico Ports Authority (2016)

Ordenes Ejecutivas [Executive Orders: Search/Buscar "OE-2016-048"] - Puerto Rico State Department (2016)

Ordenes Ejecutivas [Executive Orders: Search/Buscar "estado de emergencia"] - Puerto Rico State Department (2018)

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change - Pugh, T. A. M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A. (Nature Communications, 2016)

Adaptation challenges in complex rivers around the world: The Guadiana and the Colorado Basins - Pulwarty, Roger S.; Maia, Rodrigo (Water Resources Management, 2015)
Integrated water resources management provides an often-recommended governance framework to manage water resources in a sustainable way. The application of this framework on Transboundary Rivers brings additional challenges, which can be exacerbated due to climate changes and extremes (such as droughts). These changes affect the operation of water infrastructures and will affect water management practices. Thus, the understanding and development of adaptation measures (across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems) are critical, mainly on drought prone transboundary river basins. The paper draws on research conducted to 1) assess climatic risks in those watersheds, 2) describe the challenges in water resources management in the context of climate change, and 3) draw lessons for improving the use of research-based information. Two case studies were selected, the Colorado River Basin (North America) and the Guadiana River (Iberian Peninsula), the latter of which in the context of the five river basins shared between Portugal and Spain. Research and experience in these Basins show that several paradoxes in multistate water management and governance across borders militate against the accurate assessment of socio-economic impacts and the effective use of scientific information for meeting short-term needs in reducing longer-term vulnerabilities. Lessons drawn from both studies, but not always learned in practice, abound. These lessons include an expanded use of incentives for improving collaboration, water-use efficiency, demand management and for the development of climate services to inform water-related management as new threats arise. Recommendations are established for more effectively linking risk assessment approaches with resilience strategies that are applicable in practice and available to decision makers in a changing climate.

Caribbean islands in a changing climate - Pulwarty, Roger S.; Nurse, Leonard A.; Trotz, Ulric O. (Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 2010)

The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program: Crafting effective assessments for the long haul - Pulwarty, R. S.; Simpson, C.; Nierenberg, C. R. (Integrated Regional Assessment of Global Climate Change, 2009)

Management strategy evaluation: best practices - Punt, André E.; Butterworth, Doug S.; de Moor, Carryn L.; De Oliveira, José A. A.; Haddon, Malcolm (Fish and Fisheries, 2016)
Keywords: Fisheries management management procedure management strategy evaluation simulation stakeholders uncertainty

Effects of long-term exposure to ocean acidification conditions on future southern Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi) fisheries management - Punt, André E.; Foy, Robert J.; Dalton, Michael G.; Long, W. Christopher; Swiney, Katherine M. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2016)

Evaluating the impact of ocean acidification on fishery yields and profits: The example of red king crab in Bristol Bay - Punt, André E.; Poljak, Dusanka; Dalton, Michael G.; Foy, Robert J. (Ecological Modelling, 2014)
Keywords: MSY MEY North Pacific Ocean acidification Red king crab

Fleet behavior is responsive to a large-scale environmental disturbance: Hypoxia effects on the spatial dynamics of the northern Gulf of Mexico shrimp fishery - Purcell, Kevin M.; Craig, J. Kevin; Nance, James M.; Smith, Martin D.; Bennear, Lori S. (PLOS ONE, 2017)
The northwestern Gulf of Mexico shelf experiences one of the largest seasonal hypoxic zones in the western hemisphere. Hypoxia (dissolved oxygen, DO ≤ 2.0 mg·L-1) is most severe from May to August during the height of the Gulf shrimp fishery, but its effects on the fishery are not well known. Prior studies indicate that hypoxia alters the spatial dynamics of shrimp and other species through habitat loss and aggregation in nearby oxygenated refuge habitats. We hypothesized that hypoxia-induced changes in the distribution of shrimp also alter the spatial dynamics of the Gulf shrimp fleet. We integrated data on the geographic distribution of shrimp tows and bottom DO to evaluate the effects of hypoxia on spatial patterns in shrimping effort. Our analyses indicate that shrimping effort declines in low DO waters on both the Texas and Louisiana shelf, but that considerable effort still occurs in low DO waters off Louisiana, likely because riverine nutrients fuel both benthic production and low bottom DO in the same general regions. The response of the shrimp fleet to hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf was complex with shifts in effort inshore, offshore, westward, and eastward of the hypoxic zone, as well as to an oxygenated area between two hypoxia regimes associated with the Mississippi and the Atchafalaya River outflows. In contrast, effort on the Texas shelf mostly shifted offshore in response to low DO but also shifted inshore in some years. Spatial patterns in total shrimping effort were driven primarily by the number of shrimp tows, consistent with aggregation of the fleet outside of hypoxic waters, though tow duration also declined in low DO waters. Overall, our results demonstrate that hypoxia alters the spatial dynamics of the Gulf shrimp fishery with potential consequences for harvest interactions and the economic condition of the fishery.

Climate-induced changes in host tree–insect phenology may drive ecological state-shift in boreal forests - Pureswaran, Deepa S.; De Grandpré, Louis; Paré, David; Taylor, Anthony; Barrette, Martin; Morin, Hubert; Régnière, Jacques; Kneeshaw, Daniel D. (Ecology, 2015)
Keywords: Abies spp. boreal forest Choristoneura fumiferana climate warming forest productivity multitrophic interactions phenological synchrony Picea spp. spruce budworm outbreak

Pioneer Valley Climate Action and Clean Energy Plan - PVPC (Pioneer Valley Planning Commission (PVPC), 2014)

Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol levels in the United States - Pye, H. O. T.; Liao, H.; Wu, S.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Henze, D. K.; Seinfeld, J. H. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2009)
Keywords: Climate change aerosols global model 0305 Aerosols and particles 0365 Troposphere: composition and chemistry 0325 Evolution of the atmosphere 1610 Atmosphere 1630 Impacts of global change

Energy Poverty and Vulnerable Consumers in the Energy Sector Across the EU: Analysis of Policies and Measures - Pye, Steve; Dobbins, Audrey; Baffert, Claire; Brajković, Jurica; Grgurev, Ivana; De Miglio, Rocco; Deane, Paul (European Commission, Insight_E, 2015)

Effects of climate change on phenologies and distributions of bumble bees and the plants they visit - Pyke, Graham H.; Thomson, James D.; Inouye, David W.; Miller, Timothy J. (Ecosphere, 2016)
Surveys of bumble bees and the plants they visit, carried out in 1974 near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Colorado, were repeated in 2007, thus permitting the testing of hypotheses arising from observed climate change over the intervening 33‐yr period. As expected, given an increase in average air temperature with climate warming and a declining temperature with increasing elevation, there have been significant shifts toward higher elevation for queens or workers or both, for most bumble bee species, for bumble bee queens when species are combined, and for two focal plant species, with no significant downward shifts. However, contrary to our hypotheses, we failed to observe significant altitudinal changes for some bumble bee species and most plant species, and observed changes in elevation were often less than the upward shift of 317 m required to maintain average temperature. As expected, community flowering phenology shifted toward earlier in the season throughout our study area, but bumble bee phenology generally did not change, resulting in decreased synchrony between bees and plants. However, we were unable to confirm the narrower expectation that phenologies of bumble bee workers and community flowering coincided in 1974 but not in 2007. As expected, because of reduced synchrony between bumble bees and community flowering, bumble bee abundance was reduced in 2007 compared with 1974. Hence, climate change in our study area has apparently resulted primarily in reduced abundance and upward shift in distribution for bumble bees and shift toward earlier seasonality for plant flowering. Quantitative disagreements between climate change expectations and our observations warrant further investigation.

Modelling delay propagation within an airport network - Pyrgiotis, Nikolas; Malone, Kerry M.; Odoni, Amedeo (Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2013)
Keywords: Airport delays Network of airports Delay propagation

Increase in acidifying water in the western Arctic Ocean - Qi, Di; Chen, Liqi; Chen, Baoshan; Gao, Zhongyong; Zhong, Wenli; Feely, Richard A; Anderson, Leif G; Sun, Heng; Chen, Jianfang; Chen, Min; Zhan, Liyang; Zhang, Yuanhui; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

How fast are the tropics expanding? - Quan, Xiao-Wei; Hoerling, Martin P.; Perlwitz, Judith; Diaz, Henry F.; Xu, Taiyi (Journal of Climate, 2014)
Diagnosing the sensitivity of the tropical belt provides one framework for understanding how global precipitation patterns may change in a warming world. This paper seeks to understand boreal winter rates of subtropical dry zone expansion since 1979, and explores physical mechanisms. Various reanalysis estimates based on the latitude where zonal mean precipitation P exceeds evaporation E and the zero crossing latitude for the zonal mean meridional streamfunction yield tropical width expansion rates in each hemisphere ranging from near zero to over 1° latitude decade−1. Comparisons with 30-yr trends computed from unforced climate model simulations indicate that the range among reanalyses is nearly an order of magnitude greater than the standard deviation of internal climate variability. Furthermore, comparisons with forced climate models indicate that this range is an order of magnitude greater than the forced change signal since 1979. Rapid widening rates during 1979–2009 derived from some reanalyses are thus viewed to be unreliable.The intercomparison of models and reanalyses supports the prevailing view of a tropical widening, but the forced component of tropical widening has likely been only about 0.1°–0.2° latitude decade−1, considerably less than has generally been assumed based on inferences drawn from observations and reanalyses. Climate model diagnosis indicates that the principal mechanism for forced tropical widening since 1979 has been atmospheric sensitivity to warming oceans. The magnitude of this widening and its potential detectability has been greater in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter, in part owing to Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion.
Keywords: Hadley circulation,Forcing,Moisture/moisture budget,Ozone,Climate models,Trends

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines - Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; van Rooijen, Arnold; Cheriton, Olivia; van Dongeren, Ap (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.
Keywords: Pacific Ocean winds and waves Sea level Ecosystems coastal inundation coral reefs Republic of the Marshall Islands wave runup 4220 Coral reef systems 1641 Sea level change 4534 Hydrodynamic modeling 9355 Pacific Ocean flooding modeling infragravity waves reef morphology coastal effects

Structural vulnerability and health: Latino migrant laborers in the United States - Quesada, James; Hart, Laurie Kain; Bourgois, Philippe (Medical Anthropology, 2011)

The Behavior and Ecology of Pacific Salmon and Trout - Quinn, Thomas P. (University of Washington Press, 2005)

El Yunque National Forest Atlas - Quiñones, Maya; Parés-Ramos, Isabel K.; Gould, William A.; Gonzalez, Grizelle; McGinley, Kathleen; Ríos, Pedro (USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, 2018)

Eutrophication-driven deoxygenation in the coastal ocean - Rabalais, Nancy N.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Carstensen, Jacob; Conley, Daniel J.; Fry, Brian; Hu, Xinping; Quiñones-Rivera, Zoraida; Rosenberg, Rutger; Slomp, Caroline P.; Turner, R.Eugene; Voss, Maren; Wissel, Bjørn; et al. (Oceanography, 2014)

Dynamics and distribution of natural and human-caused hypoxia - Rabalais, N. N.; Díaz, R. J.; Levin, L. A.; Turner, R. E.; Gilbert, D.; Zhang, J. (Biogeosciences, 2010)

Hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Does the science support the plan to reduce, mitigate, and control hypoxia? - Rabalais, N. N.; Turner, R. E.; Sen Gupta, B. K.; Boesch, D. F.; Chapman, P.; Murrell, M. C. (Estuaries and Coasts, 2007)
We update and reevaluate the scientific information on the distribution, history, and causes of continental shelf hypoxia that supports the 2001 Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force 2001), incorporating data, publications, and research results produced since the 1999 integrated assessment. The metric of mid-summer hypoxic area on the LouisianaTexas shelf is an adequate and suitable measure for continued efforts to reduce nutrients loads from the Mississippi River and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico as outlined in the Action Plan. More frequent measurements of simple metrics (e.g., area and volume) from late spring through late summer would ensure that the metric is representative of the system in any given year and useful in a public discourse of conditions and causes. The long-term data on hypoxia, sources of nutrients, associated biological parameters, and paleoindicators continue to verify and strengthen the relationship between the nitratenitrogen load of the Mississippi River, the extent of hypoxia, and changes in the coastal ecosystem (eutrophication and worsening hypoxia). Multiple lines of evidence, some of them representing independent data sources, are consistent with the big picture pattern of increased eutrophication as a result of long-term nutrient increases that result in excess carbon production and accumulation and, ultimately, bottom water hypoxia. The additional findings arising since 1999 strengthen the science supporting the Action Plan that focuses on reducing nutrient loads, primarily nitrogen, through multiple actions to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming - Rabasa, Sonia G.; Granda, Elena; Benavides, Raquel; Kunstler, Georges; Espelta, Josep M.; Ogaya, Romá; Peñuelas, Josep; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Gil, Wojciech; Grodzki, Wojciech; Ambrozy, Slawomir; Bergh, Johan; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2013)
Keywords: altitudinal gradient climate change forest generalized additive models species distribution

Sensitivity of global tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations to climate change - Racherla, Pavan Nandan; Adams, Peter J. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2006)
An integrated global model of climate, tropospheric gas phase chemistry, and aerosols has been used to investigate the sensitivity of global ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations to climate change. Two simulations corresponding to present (1990s) and future (2050s) climates have been performed and compared. A future climate has been imposed using ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 scenario for the 2050s decade, resulting in an increase in the global annual average values of the surface air temperature by 1.7°C, the lower tropospheric specific humidity by 0.9 g H2O/kg air, and the precipitation by 0.15 mm d−1. Present‐day anthropogenic emissions have been used in both simulations while climate‐sensitive natural emissions were allowed to vary with the simulated climate. The tropospheric ozone burden in the future climate run decreased by 5%, and its lifetime decreased from 27.8 to 25.3 days. The tropospheric ozone change is driven primarily by increased ozone loss rates through ozone photolysis in the presence of water vapor, which on a global scale, more than compensate for the increased ozone chemical production associated with increased temperatures. At the model surface layer, over remote regions, ozone mixing ratios decreased by 1–3 ppbv, while polluted regions showed a relatively smaller decrease of 0–1 ppbv and increased by 1–5 ppbv in some cases. The global burdens and lifetimes of fine particulate matter species in the future climate run decreased by 2 to 18% because of increased wet deposition loss rates associated with increased precipitation. At the model surface layer, there are regions of decreases and increases in the concentrations of fine particulate matter species. The increased surface layer concentrations of some fine particulate matter species is primarily driven by lower regional‐scale precipitation and increased secondary production, where applicable. The robustness of the predicted regional‐scale changes for fine particulate matter species is strongly dependent upon the predicted regional‐scale precipitation changes.

Exploring alternatives to the "typical meteorological year" for incorporating climate change into building design - Radbideau, Shannon L.; Passe, Ulrike; Takle, Eugene S. (ASHRAE Transactions, 2012)

The wildland-urban interface in the United States - Radeloff, V.C.; Hammer, R.B.; Stewart, S.I.; Fried, J.S.; Holcomb, S.S.; McKeefry, J.F. (Ecological Applications, 2005)

Future changes in autumn atmospheric river events in British Columbia, Canada, as projected by CMIP5 global climate models - Radić, Valentina; Cannon, Alex J.; Menounos, Brian; Gi, Nayeob (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2015)
Keywords: atmospheric rivers global climate models model evaluation extreme precipitation events model projections 3305 Climate change and variability 3337 Global climate models 3354 Precipitation 3364 Synoptic-scale meteorology

Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise - Radić, V.; Hock, R. (Nature Geoscience, 2011)
The contribution to sea-level rise from mountain glaciers and ice caps has grown over the past decades. They are expected to remain an important component of eustatic sea-level rise for at least another century1, 2, despite indications of accelerated wastage of the ice sheets3, 4, 5. However, it is difficult to project the future contribution of these small-scale glaciers to sea-level rise on a global scale. Here, we project their volume changes due to melt in response to transient, spatially differentiated twenty-first century projections of temperature and precipitation from ten global climate models. We conduct the simulations directly on the more than 120,000 glaciers now available in the World Glacier Inventory6, and upscale the changes to 19 regions that contain all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the world (excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets). According to our multi-model mean, sea-level rise from glacier wastage by 2100 will amount to 0.124±0.037 m, with the largest contribution from glaciers in Arctic Canada, Alaska and Antarctica. Total glacier volume will be reduced by 21±6%, but some regions are projected to lose up to 75% of their present ice volume. Ice losses on such a scale may have substantial impacts on regional hydrology and water availability
Keywords: Cryospheric science; Climate science

Special report: How engineers are preparing for sea-level rise - Radtke Russell, Pam (Engineering News-Record, 2017)

A literal use of “forest health” safeguards against misuse and misapplication - Raffa, Kenneth F.; Aukema, Brian; Bentz, Barbara J.; Carroll, Allan; Erbilgin, Nadir; Herms, Daniel A.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Hofstetter, Richard W.; Katovich, Steven; Lindgren, B. Staffan; Logan, Jesse; Mattson, William; et al. (Journal of Forestry, 2009)

Cross-scale drivers of natural disturbances prone to anthropogenic amplification: The dynamics of bark beetle eruptions - Raffa, K.F.; Aukema, B.H.; Bentz, B.J.; Carroll, A.L.; Hicke, J.A.; Turner, M.G.; Romme, W.H. (BioScience, 2008)

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely - Raftery, Adrian E.; Zimmer, Alec; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Startz, Richard; Liu, Peiran (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Quantifying changes in future intensity‐duration‐frequency curves using multimodel ensemble simulations - Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir; Love, Charlotte A.; Cheng, Linyin; Vahedifard, Farshid; Lima, Carlos H. R. (Water Resources Research, 2018)
During the last century, we have observed a warming climate with more intense precipitation extremes in some regions, likely due to increases in the atmosphere's water holding capacity. Traditionally, infrastructure design and rainfall‐triggered landslide models rely on the notion of stationarity, which assumes that the statistics of extremes do not change significantly over time. However, in a warming climate, infrastructures and natural slopes will likely face more severe climatic conditions, with potential human and socioeconomical consequences. Here we outline a framework for quantifying climate change impacts based on the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events using bias corrected historical and multimodel projected precipitation extremes. The approach evaluates changes in rainfall Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency (IDF) curves and their uncertainty bounds using a nonstationary model based on Bayesian inference. We show that highly populated areas across the United States may experience extreme precipitation events up to 20% more intense and twice as frequent, relative to historical records, despite the expectation of unchanged annual mean precipitation. Since IDF curves are widely used for infrastructure design and risk assessment, the proposed framework offers an avenue for assessing resilience of infrastructure and landslide hazard in a warming climate.

The Economic Impact of Seasonal Drought Forecast Information Service in Jamaica, 2014-15 - Rahman, Tauhidur; Buizer, James; Guido, Zackry (United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 2016)

Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation - Rahmstorf, Stefan; Box, Jason E.; Feulner, Georg; Mann, Michael E.; Robinson, Alexander; Rutherford, Scott; Schaffernicht, Erik J. (Nature Climate Change, 2015)
Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.

Expanded benefits for humanity from the International Space Station - Rai, Amelia; Robinson, Julie A.; Tate-Brown, Judy; Buckley, Nicole; Zell, Martin; Tasaki, Kazuyuki; Karabadzhak, Georgy; Sorokin, Igor V.; Pignataro, Salvatore (Acta Astronautica, 2016)

Impacts of near-term regional climate change on irrigation demands and crop yields in the Columbia River Basin - Rajagopalan, K.; Chinayakanahalli, K.; Stockle, C.O.; Nelson, R.L.; Kruger, C.E.; Brady, M.P.; Malek, K.; Dinesh, S.T.; Barber, M.E.; Hamlet, A.F.; Yorgey, G.G.; Adam, J.C. (Water Resources Research, 2018)

A system of professions approach to reducing heat exposure in Cuyahoga County, Ohio - Rajkovich, Nicholas B. (Michigan Journal of Sustainability, 2016)

The devil is in the details: An investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa - Raleigh, Clionadh; Choi, Hyun Jin; Kniveton, Dominic (Global Environmental Change, 2015)
Keywords: Conflict Food price Rainfall Climate change Africa Simultaneous equations model

Flooding on California's Russian River: Role of atmospheric rivers - Ralph, F. Martin; Neiman, Paul J.; Wick, Gary A.; Gutman, Seth I.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Cayan, Daniel R.; White, Allen B. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2006)
Keywords: 1817 Extreme events 1821 Floods 1840 Hydrometeorology 1854 Precipitation

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change - Ralston, Joel; DeLuca, William V.; Feldman, Richard E.; King, David I. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: birds Breeding Bird Survey change-point analysis climate niche Grinellian niche

Analysis of combined data sets yields trend estimates for vulnerable spruce-fir birds in northern United States - Ralston, Joel; King, David I.; DeLuca, William V.; Niemi, Gerald J.; Glennon, Michale J.; Scarl, Judith C.; Lambert, J. Daniel (Biological Conservation, 2015)
Keywords: Spruce-fir Boreal birds Trends Point counts Ecological monitoring

Food supply confers calcifiers resistance to ocean acidification - Ramajo, Laura; Pérez-León, Elia; Hendriks, Iris E.; Marbà, Núria; Krause-Jensen, Dorte; Sejr, Mikael K.; Blicher, Martin E.; Lagos, Nelson A.; Olsen, Ylva S.; Duarte, Carlos M. (Scientific Reports, 2016)

Inter-annual variability in urban heat island intensity over 10 major cities in the United States - Ramamurthy, Prathap; Sangobanwo, Michael (Sustainable Cities and Society, 2016)
Keywords: Urban heat island Heatwaves Urban climate Cities Climate change

Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992 - Ramankutty, Navin; Foley, Jonathan A. (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 1999)
Keywords: 1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 1640 Remote sensing

Meta-principles for developing smart, sustainable, and healthy cities - Ramaswami, Anu; Russell, Armistead G.; Culligan, Patricia J.; Sharma, Karnamadakala Rahul; Kumar, Emani (Science, 2016)
Policy directives in several nations are focusing on the development of smart cities, linking innovations in the data sciences with the goal of advancing human well-being and sustainability on a highly urbanized planet. To achieve this goal, smart initiatives must move beyond city-level data to a higher-order understanding of cities as transboundary, multisectoral, multiscalar, social-ecological-infrastructural systems with diverse actors, priorities, and solutions. We identify five key dimensions of cities and present eight principles to focus attention on the systems-level decisions that society faces to transition toward a smart, sustainable, and healthy urban future.

Kosrae Shoreline Management Plan: Repositioning for Resilience, Executive Summary - Ramsay, Doug; Webb, Arthur; Abraham, Simpson; Jackson, Robert; Charley, Blair (National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA), 2000)

Forest health in a changing world: Effects of globalization and climate change on forest insect and pathogen impacts - Ramsfield, T. D.; Bentz, B. J.; Faccoli, M.; Jactel, H.; Brockerhoff, E. G. (Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research, 2016)
Forests and trees throughout the world are increasingly affected by factors related to global change. Expanding international trade has facilitated invasions of numerous insects and pathogens into new regions. Many of these invasions have caused substantial forest damage, economic impacts and losses of ecosystem goods and services provided by trees. Climate change is already affecting the geographic distribution of host trees and their associated insects and pathogens, with anticipated increases in pest impacts by both native and invasive pests. Although climate change will benefit many forest insects, changes in thermal conditions may disrupt evolved life history traits and cause phenological mismatches. Individually, the threats posed to forest ecosystems by invasive pests and climate change are serious. Although interactions between these two drivers and their outcomes are poorly understood and hence difficult to predict, it is clear that the cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems will be exacerbated. Here we introduce and synthesize the information in this special issue of Forestry with articles that illustrate the impacts of invasions of insects and pathogens, climate change, forest management and their interactions, as well as methods to predict, assess and mitigate these impacts. Most of these contributions were presented at the XXIV IUFRO World Congress in 2014.

Environmental justice, American Indians and the cultural dilemma: Developing environmental management for tribal health and well-being - Ranco, Darren J.; O'Neill, Catherine A.; Donatuto, Jamie; Harper, Barbara L. (Environmental Justice, 2011)

Contemporary white-band disease in Caribbean corals driven by climate change - Randall, C. J.; van Woesik, R. (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

High-resolution climate modeling for regional adaptation - Rangwala, Imtiaz; Dewes, Candida; Barsugli, Joseph (Eos, 2016)

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Losses - Ranson, Matthew; Tarquinio, Tina; Lew, Audrey (NCEE Working Paper Series, 2016)
Keywords: added by ERG

Climate change and housing: Will a rising tide sink all homes? - Rao, Krishna (Zillow Research, 2017)

Technology and engineering of the water-energy nexus - Rao, Prakash; Kostecki, Robert; Dale, Larry; Gadgil, Ashok (Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2017)
The global demand for water and energy is projected to grow, but there likely will be significant constraints in our ability to keep meeting it. These constraints will be imposed partly by the interdependence between water, energy, and climate change. If left unchecked, these connections can exacerbate water and energy shortages and aggravate climate change impacts: Energy is used to supply and treat water; moreover, emissions from energy generation contribute to climate change, which affects water supplies and increases the demand for energy to sustain Earth’s growing population and economy. The linkage between water and energy can offer opportunities for better meeting expected demand while minimizing damage from shortages of either. This article focuses on the technological and engineering aspects of various connections in the water-energy nexus where advancements can enable greater supply of one or both. It also outlines the benefits and challenges associated with each connection. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources Volume 42 is October 17, 2017. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality - Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; et al. (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Beyond a warming fingerprint: Individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California - Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P.; Schneider, Adam C.; Hammond, Talisin T.; Jabis, Meredith D.; Walsh, Rachel E.; Iknayan, Kelly J.; Walden, Genevieve K.; Oldfather, Meagan F.; Ackerly, David D.; Beissinger, Steven R. (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Keywords: biogeographic responses California climate change climatic water balance elevation fingerprint range shifts temperature

Assessing tidal marsh resilience to sea-level rise at broad geographic scales with multi-metric indices - Raposa, Kenneth B.; Wasson, Kerstin; Smith, Erik; Crooks, Jeffrey A.; Delgado, Patricia; Fernald, Sarah H.; Ferner, Matthew C.; Helms, Alicia; Hice, Lyndie A.; Mora, Jordan W.; Puckett, Brandon; Sanger, Denise; et al. (Biological Conservation, 2016)
Keywords: Assessment Index Marsh National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) Resilience Sea-level rise

Vegetation dynamics in Rhode Island salt marshes during a period of accelerating sea level rise and extreme sea level events - Raposa, Kenneth B.; Weber, Robin L. J.; Ekberg, Marci Cole; Ferguson, Wenley (Estuaries and Coasts, 2017)
Sea level rise is a major stressor on many salt marshes, and its impacts include creek widening, ponding, vegetation dieback, and drowning. Marsh vegetation changes have been associated with sea level rise across southern New England, but most of these studies pre-date the current period of rapidly accelerating sea level rise coupled with episodic events of extreme increases in water levels. Here, we combine data from two salt marsh monitoring and assessment programs in Rhode Island that were designed to assess marsh responses to sea level rise and use these data to document temporal and spatial patterns in marsh vegetation during the current period of extreme water level increases. Vegetation monitoring at two Narragansett Bay salt marshes confirms the ongoing decline of the salt meadow species Spartina patens during this period as it becomes replaced by Spartina alterniflora. Bare ground resulting from vegetation dieback was significantly related to mean high water levels and led to the rapid conversion of mixed Spartina assemblages to S. alterniflora monocultures. A broader spatial assessment of RI marshes shows that S. alterniflora dominance increases at lower elevation marshes toward the mouth of Narraganset Bay. Our data provide additional evidence that S. patens continues to decline in southern New England marshes and show that losses can accelerate during periods of extreme high water levels. Unless adaptive management actions are taken, we predict that marshes throughout RI will continue to lose salt meadow habitat and eventually resemble lower elevation marshes that are already dominated by S. alterniflora monocultures.

Maple syrup in a changing climate - Rapp, Joshua; Ahmed, Selena; Lutz, David; Huish, Ryan; Dufour, Boris; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Stinson, Kristina (Northeast Climate Science Center's Regional Science Meeting: Incorporating Climate Science in the Management of Natural and Cultural Resources in the Midwest and Northeast, 2017)

(Re)expansion of the maple syrup industry in New England: Projecting where the taps will be in a changing environment - Rapp, Joshua; Duveneck, Matthew; Thompson, Jonathan (Harvard Forest Symposium 2016, 2016)

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America - Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; Wu, JunJie; Voldseth, Richard A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Werner, Brett; Johnson, W. Carter (Regional Environmental Change, 2016)
Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.

Subsistence over symbolism: The role of transnational municipal networks on cities’ climate policy innovation and adoption - Rashidi, Kaveh; Patt, Anthony (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2018)
Urban areas account for the majority of global greenhouse gas emissions, and increasingly, it is city governments that are adopting and implementing climate mitigation policies. Many municipal governments have joined two different global city networks that aim to promote climate policy development at the urban scale, and there is qualitative evidence that such networks play an important role in motivating cities to adopt climate policies and helping them to implement them. Our study objective is to test this proposition quantitatively, making use of a global database on cities’ environmental policy adoption, and also taking into account a large number of other factors that could play a role in climate policy adoption. Controlling for these other factors, we find that network membership does make a significant difference in the number of different measures that city governments adopt. We also find that there are significant differences between the two different networks, suggesting that the nature of the services that such networks offer their members can play an important role. Our findings lead to the provision of a set of global mitigation strategies: First of all, joining the city networks can lead to a generation of global strategies which can result into climate mitigation benefits. However, cities are required to select the network which provides proper tailor made policies. Second, in the absence of concrete international commitments at the local level, city networks lay the ground for global governance and enable cities to adopt policies independently and proactively. Third, consideration of co-benefits of climate policies can optimize the development of global strategies.

Climate-driven change in plant–insect interactions along elevation gradients - Rasmann, Sergio; Pellissier, Loïc; Defossez, Emmanuel; Jactel, Hervé; Kunstler, Georges (Functional Ecology, 2014)
Keywords: community ecology ecological gradients flavonoids herbivory leaf toughness plant defences predators

The ozone–climate penalty: Past, present, and future - Rasmussen, D. J.; Hu, Jianlin; Mahmud, Abdullah; Kleeman, Michael J. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2013)

Adaptation by stealth: Climate information use in the Great Lakes region across scales - Rasmussen, Laura Vang; Kirchhoff, Christine J.; Lemos, Maria Carmen (Climatic Change, 2017)
While there has been considerable focus on understanding barriers to climate information use associated with the character of climate knowledge, individuals’ negative perception of its usability and constraints of decision-contexts, less attention has been paid to understanding how different scales of decision-making influence information use. In this study, we explore how water and resource managers’ scales of decision-making and scope of decision responsibilities influence climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information remains low. Reasons include (a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky, (b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, (c) problems with the information itself, and (d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that (1) scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have willingness and authority to use climate information; (2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g., state), it is unlikely that climate information use will accelerate significantly; and (3) the trend towards characterizing climate specific actions within a broader concept of sustainability practices, or “adaptation by stealth,” should be supported as a component of the climate adaptation repertoire.

Climate change impacts on the water balance of the Colorado Headwaters: High-resolution regional climate model simulations - Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Liu, Changhai; Gochis, David; Clark, Martyn; Dai, Aiguo; Gutmann, Ethan; Dudhia, Jimy; Chen, Fei; Barlage, Mike; Yates, David; Zhang, Guo (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2014)
A high-resolution climate model (4-km horizontal grid spacing) is used to examine the following question: How will long-term changes in climate impact the partitioning of annual precipitation between evapotranspiration and runoff in the Colorado Headwaters?This question is examined using a climate sensitivity approach in which eight years of current climate is compared to a future climate created by modifying the current climate signal with perturbation from the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), model forced by the A1B scenario for greenhouse gases out to 2050. The current climate period is shown to agree well with Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) surface observations of precipitation (P) and snowpack, as well as streamflow and AmeriFlux evapotranspiration (ET) observations. The results show that the annual evaporative fraction (ET/P) for the Colorado Headwaters is 0.81 for the current climate and 0.83 for the future climate, indicating increasing aridity in the future despite a positive increase of precipitation. Runoff decreased by an average of 6%, reflecting the increased aridity.Precipitation increased in the future winter by 12%, but decreased in the summer as a result of increased low-level inhibition to convection. The fraction of precipitation that fell as snow decreased from 0.83 in the current climate to 0.74 in the future. Future snowpack did not change significantly until January. From January to March the snowpack increased above ~3000 m MSL and decreased below that level. Snowpack decreased at all elevations in the future from April to July. The peak snowpack and runoff over the headwaters occurred 2–3 weeks earlier in the future simulation, in agreement with previous studies.
Keywords: Climate change,Hydrology,Hydrometeorology,Water budget,Model evaluation/performance,Regional models

Crop Protection Contributions Toward Agricultural Productivity. A Paper in the Series on The Need for Agricultural Innovation to Sustainably Feed the World by 2050 - Ratcliffe, Susan; Baur, Matthew; Beckie, Hugh; Giesler, Loren; Leppla, Norman; Schroeder, Jill (Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST), 2017)

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation at the local level - Rauken, Trude; Mydske, Per Kristen; Winsvold, Marte (Local Environment, 2015)

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions - Raupach, Michael R.; Marland, Gregg; Ciais, Philippe; Le Quéré, Corinne; Canadell, Josep G.; Klepper, Gernot; Field, Christopher B. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007)
CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y−1 for 1990–1999 to >3% y−1 for 2000–2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world's population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.

Access to energy in Indian Country: The difficulties of self-determination in renewable energy development - Ravotti, Nicholas M. (American Indian Law Review, 2017)

Erosion-induced community displacement in Newtok, Alaska and the need to modify FEMA and NEPA to establish a relocation framework for a warming world - Rawlings, Ashley (Seattle Journal of Environmental Law, 2015)

From planning to action: Implementation of state climate change adaptation plans - Ray, Aaron D.; Grannis, Jessica (Michigan Journal of Sustainability, 2015)

Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability - Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C. (Nature Communications, 2015)

Dry season clouds and rainfall in northern Central America: Implications for the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor - Ray, Deepak K.; Welch, Ronald M.; Lawton, Robert O.; Nair, Udaysankar S. (Global and Planetary Change, 2006)
Keywords: Mesoamerican Biological Corridor rainfall clouds deforestation Mesoamerica

Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design: The Decision Tree Framework - Ray, Patrick A.; Brown, Casey M. (World Bank Group, 2015)
Keywords: added by ERG

Seattle City Light Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Plan - Raymond, Crystal L. (Seattle City Light, 2015)

“Always Taught Not to Waste”: Traditional Knowledge and Norton Sound/Bering Strait Salmon Populations - Raymond-Yakoubian, Brenden; Raymond-Yakoubian, Julie (Kawerak, Inc., 2015)

"When the Fish Come, We Go Fishing": Local Ecological Knowledge of Non-salmon Fish Used For Subsistence in the Bering Strait Region - Raymond-Yakoubian, Julie (Kawerak, Inc, 2013)

Anomalous temperatures and extreme tides: Guam staghorn Acropora succumb to a double threat - Raymundo, L. J.; Burdick, D.; Lapacek, V. A.; Miller, R.; Brown, V. (Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2017)
Anomalously warm sea surface temperature events are increasing in frequency, generating global concern regarding the adaptive and acclimatizing capacities of corals. Staghorn Acropora corals, important ecologically as habitat structurers, are particularly vulnerable to temperature-related bleaching. Here, we report a catastrophic mass mortality event that affected shallow staghorn communities in Guam, Micronesia. Mortality began in conjunction with a mass bleaching event in late 2013, initiated by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures and doldrum winds over a 4 mo period. A second warming event followed less than 8 mo later, concurrent with a period of extreme low tides resulting in repeated periods of subaerial exposure of shallow corals. This combination of stressors acted synergistically to trigger an extended mass mortality event. In 2015, we conducted rapid assessment surveys of 7 species in 21 previously mapped populations to determine mortality extent and pattern. Mortality from these combined environmental stressors resulted in a 53 ± 10% reduction in Guam’s staghorn population, covering an estimated 17.5 ha of coral communities. Greater water circulation appeared to be associated with higher survival during both warm temperature periods and extreme low tides; populations in slightly deeper water, closer to well-flushed reef margins, showed lower mortality. A better understanding of the environmental drivers of the mortality patterns we observed is currently being applied to developing strategies to restore and manage remaining populations.

Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century - Rayner, N. A.; Parker, D. E.; Horton, E. B.; Folland, C. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Rowell, D. P.; Kent, E. C.; Kaplan, A. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2003)
We present the Met Office Hadley Centre's sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data set, HadISST1, and the nighttime marine air temperature (NMAT) data set, HadMAT1. HadISST1 replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1° latitude-longitude grid from 1871. The companion HadMAT1 runs monthly from 1856 on a 5° latitude-longitude grid and incorporates new corrections for the effect on NMAT of increasing deck (and hence measurement) heights. HadISST1 and HadMAT1 temperatures are reconstructed using a two-stage reduced-space optimal interpolation procedure, followed by superposition of quality-improved gridded observations onto the reconstructions to restore local detail. The sea ice fields are made more homogeneous by compensating satellite microwave-based sea ice concentrations for the impact of surface melt effects on retrievals in the Arctic and for algorithm deficiencies in the Antarctic and by making the historical in situ concentrations consistent with the satellite data. SSTs near sea ice are estimated using statistical relationships between SST and sea ice concentration. HadISST1 compares well with other published analyses, capturing trends in global, hemispheric, and regional SST well, containing SST fields with more uniform variance through time and better month-to-month persistence than those in GISST. HadMAT1 is more consistent with SST and with collocated land surface air temperatures than previous NMAT data sets.

Cumulative geoecological effects of 62 years of infrastructure and climate change in ice-rich permafrost landscapes, Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska - Raynolds, Martha K.; Walker, Donald A.; Ambrosius, Kenneth J.; Brown, Jerry; Everett, Kaye R.; Kanevskiy, Mikhail; Kofinas, Gary P.; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Shur, Yuri; Webber, Patrick J. (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Keywords: Arctic climate change cumulative impacts geoecological mapping ice-rich permafrost ice-wedge polygons infrastructure photo-interpretation thermokarst tundra

A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology - Reager, J. T.; Gardner, A. S.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Wiese, D. N.; Eicker, A.; Lo, M.-H. (Science, 2016)
How much of an effect does terrestrial groundwater storage have on sea-level rise? Reager et al. used gravity measurements made between 2002 and 2014 by NASA's Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites to quantify variations in groundwater storage. Combining those data with estimates of mass loss by glaciers revealed groundwater's impact on sea-level change. Net groundwater storage has been increasing, and the greatest regional changes, both positive and negative, are associated with climate-driven variability in precipitation. Thus, groundwater storage has slowed the rate of recent sea-level rise by roughly 15%.Science, this issue p. 699Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/351/6274/699.full.pdf

[web site] - Rebuild by Design (100 Resilient Cities, 2017)

Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study. Study Report. December 2012. Prepared by the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Team - Reclamation (U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 2012)

Hood River Basin Study - Reclamation (Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region, 2015)

Henrys Fork Basin Study - Reclamation (Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region and Idaho Water Resource Board, 2015)

Infrastructure Investment Strategy - Reclamation (U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 2015)

Columbia River Basin Impacts Assessment - Reclamation (Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Regional Office, 2016)

Yakima River Basin Study. Volume 1: Proposed Integrated Water Resource Management Plan - Reclamation and Ecology (Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region and Washington Department of Ecology, 2011)

Habitat Conservation Plan - RECON Environmental Inc.; Hicks & Company; ZARA Environmental LLC; BIO-WEST (Edwards Aquifer Recovery Implementation Program, 2012)