Southwest climate gap: Poverty and environmental justice in the US Southwest - Wilder, Margaret; Liverman, Diana; Bellante, Laurel; Osborne, Tracey (Local Environment, 2016)

Exposure to heat stress in urban environments - Wilhelmi, Olga; De Sherbinin, Alex; Hayden, Mary (Ecologies and Politics of Health, 2013)

Incorporating climate change into culvert design in Washington State, USA - Wilhere, George F.; Atha, Jane B.; Quinn, Timothy; Tohver, Ingrid; Helbrecht, Lynn (Ecological Engineering, 2017)
Keywords: Climate change Fish passage Culvert Water crossing Bankfull width Environmental risk

The Implications of Climate Change for Nebraska: Summary Report of Sector-Based Roundtable Discussions - Wilhite, Donald; Morrow, Kimberly (University of Nebraska, School of Natural Resources, 2016)
ISBN: 1-56161-055-0 ISBN-13: 978-1-56161-055-6

Drought and Water Crises: Integrating Science, Management, and Policy - Wilhite, Donald A.; Pulwarty, Roger S. (Taylor & Francis Group, CRC Press, 2017)

American Indian Politics and the American Political System - Wilkins, David E.; Stark, Heidi Kiiwetinepinesiik (Spectrum Series: Race and Ethnicity in National and Global Politics, 2017)

Towards a More Resilient Caribbean After the 2017 Hurricanes. Report From Roundtable Discussions, 30 January 2018 - Wilkinson, Emily (Overseas Development Institute, 2018)

Increased vapor pressure deficit due to higher temperature leads to greater transpiration and faster mortality during drought for tree seedlings common to the forest–grassland ecotone - Will, Rodney E.; Wilson, Stuart M.; Zou, Chris B.; Hennessey, Thomas C. (New Phytologist, 2013)
Keywords: drought mortality seedlings transpiration vapor pressure deficit (VPD) water potential

Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence - Willett, K.M.; Gillett, N.P.; Jones, P.D.; Thorne, P.W. (Nature, 2007)
Water vapour is the most important contributor to the natural greenhouse effect, and the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is expected to increase under conditions of greenhouse-gas-induced warming, leading to a significant feedback on anthropogenic climate change(1-3). Theoretical and modelling studies predict that relative humidity will remain approximately constant at the global scale as the climate warms, leading to an increase in specific humidity(1,4,5). Although significant increases in surface specific humidity have been identified in several regions(6-9), and on the global scale in non-homogenized data(10), it has not been shown whether these changes are due to natural or human influences on climate. Here we use a new quality-controlled and homogenized gridded observational data set of surface humidity, with output from a coupled climate model, to identify and explore the causes of changes in surface specific humidity over the late twentieth century. We identify a significant global-scale increase in surface specific humidity that is attributable mainly to human influence. Specific humidity is found to have increased in response to rising temperatures, with relative humidity remaining approximately constant. These changes may have important implications, because atmospheric humidity is a key variable in determining the geographical distribution(11-13) and maximum intensity(14) of precipitation, the potential maximum intensity of tropical cyclones(15), and human heat stress(16), and has important effects on the biosphere(17) and surface hydrology(17,18).
Keywords: RELATIVE-HUMIDITY; WATER-VAPOR; TEMPERATURE; TRENDS; CLIMATOLOGY; MODEL; VARIABILITY; ICOADS; CYCLE

Recent advances and remaining uncertainties in resolving past and future climate effects on global fire activity - Williams, A Park; Abatzoglou, John T (Current Climate Change Reports, 2016)

Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality - Williams, A.P.; Allen, C.D.; Macalady, A.K.; Griffin, D.; Woodhouse, C.A.; Meko, D.M.; Swetnam, T.W.; Rauscher, S.A.; Seager, R.; Grissino-Mayer, H.D.; Dean, J.S.; Cook, E.R.; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States - Williams, A.P.; Allen, C.D.; Millar, C.I.; Swetnam, T.W.; Michaelsen, J.; Still, C.J.; Leavitt, S.W. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2010)

Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014 - Williams, A. Park; Seager, Richard; Abatzoglou, John T.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Edward R. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: drought California warming potential evapotranspiration climate change attribution Palmer Drought Severity Index 1630 Impacts of global change 1812 Drought 1843 Land/atmosphere interactions 1866 Soil moisture 4313 Extreme events

Causes and implications of extreme atmospheric moisture demand during the record-breaking 2011 wildfire season in the southwestern United States - Williams, A. Park; Seager, Richard; Berkelhammer, Max; Macalady, Alison K.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Trugman, Anna T.; Buenning, Nikolaus; Hryniw, Natalia; McDowell, Nate G.; Noone, David; Mora, Claudia I.; et al. (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2014)
In 2011, exceptionally low atmospheric moisture content combined with moderately high temperatures to produce a record-high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the southwestern United States (SW). These conditions combined with record-low cold-season precipitation to cause widespread drought and extreme wildfires. Although interannual VPD variability is generally dominated by temperature, high VPD in 2011 was also driven by a lack of atmospheric moisture. The May–July 2011 dewpoint in the SW was 4.5 standard deviations below the long-term mean. Lack of atmospheric moisture was promoted by already very dry soils and amplified by a strong ocean-to-continent sea level pressure gradient and upper-level convergence that drove dry northerly winds and subsidence upwind of and over the SW. Subsidence drove divergence of rapid and dry surface winds over the SW, suppressing southerly moisture imports and removing moisture from already dry soils. Model projections developed for the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggest that by the 2050s warming trends will cause mean warm-season VPD to be comparable to the record-high VPD observed in 2011. CMIP5 projections also suggest increased interannual variability of VPD, independent of trends in background mean levels, as a result of increased variability of dewpoint, temperature, vapor pressure, and saturation vapor pressure. Increased variability in VPD translates to increased probability of 2011-type VPD anomalies, which would be superimposed on ever-greater background VPD levels. Although temperature will continue to be the primary driver of interannual VPD variability, 2011 served as an important reminder that atmospheric moisture content can also drive impactful VPD anomalies.
Keywords: Atmospheric circulation,Vegetation-atmosphere interactions,Drought,Wildfires

Disturbance and the carbon balance of US forests: A quantitative review of impacts from harvests, fires, insects, and droughts - Williams, Christopher A.; Gu, Huan; MacLean, Richard; Masek, Jeffrey G.; Collatz, G. James (Global and Planetary Change, 2016)
Keywords: Forest ecology and management Carbon sequestration Climate change Global environmental change Carbon balance and management

Cold truths: How winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change - Williams, Caroline M.; Henry, Hugh A. L.; Sinclair, Brent J. (Biological Reviews, 2015)
Keywords: snow frost cold extreme events average temperatures freeze-thaw cycles sub-lethal impacts energetics hibernation

Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises - Williams, John W.; Jackson, Stephen T. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2007)

Late-quaternary vegetation dynamics in North America: Scaling from taxa to biomes - Williams, John W.; Shuman, Bryan N.; Webb, Thompson; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Leduc, Phillip L. (Ecological Monographs, 2004)
Keywords: biome maps biome reconstruction, pollen-based fossil pollen data North America, vegetation history paleoecology plant functional types Quaternary vegetation dynamics vegetation history

Sea-level rise and coastal forest retreat on the West Coast of Florida, USA - Williams, Kimberlyn; Ewel, Katherine C.; Stumpf, Richard P.; Putz, Francis E.; Workman, Thomas W. (Ecology, 1999)
Keywords: flooding stress Florida, USA, west coast forest retreat, coastal global warming and sea-level rise groundwater salinity limestone coasts relict stands Sabal palmetto sea-level rise seedling survival soil redox potential

Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Forests on the Gulf of Mexico - Williams, Kimberlyn; Pinzon, Z. S.; Stumpf, R. P.; Raabe, E. A. (U.S. Geological Survey, Center for Coastal Geology, 1999)

Culture, law, risk and governance: Contexts of traditional knowledge in climate change adaptation - Williams, Terry; Hardison, Preston (Climatic Change, 2013)
Traditional knowledge is increasingly recognized as valuable for adaptation to climate change, bringing scientists and indigenous peoples together to collaborate and exchange knowledge. These partnerships can benefit both researchers and indigenous peoples through mutual learning and mutual knowledge generation. Despite these benefits, most descriptions focus on the social contexts of exchange. The implications of the multiple cultural, legal, risk-benefit and governance contexts of knowledge exchange have been less recognized. The failure to consider these contexts of knowledge exchange can result in the promotion of benefits while failing to adequately address adverse consequences. The purpose of this article is to promote awareness of these issues to encourage their wider incorporation into research, policy, measures to implement free, prior and informed consent (FPIC) and the development of equitable adaptation partnerships between indigenous peoples and researchers.

Adaptive capacity deficits and adaptive capacity of economic systems in climate change vulnerability assessment - Williamson, Tim; Hesseln, Hayley; Johnston, Mark (Forest Policy and Economics, 2012)
Keywords: Climate change Vulnerability Economic efficiency Equity Adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity deficit Market failure Irrational behaviour Institutional failure Economic systems

Barriers to enhanced and integrated climate change adaptation and mitigation in Canadian forest management - Williamson, Tim B.; Nelson, Harry W. (Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2017)

Climate Action Through Equity - Williams-Rajee, Desiree; Evans, Taren (City of Portland and Multnomah County Climate Action Plan Project Team, 2016)

Measuring the Resilience of Energy Distribution Systems - Willis, Henry H.; Loa, Kathleen (RAND Corporation, 2015)

Viability Assessment for Pacific Salmon and Steelhead Listed Under the Endangered Species Act: Southwest - Willliams, Thomas H.; Spence, Brian C.; Boughton, David A.; Johnson, Rachel C.; Crozier, Lisa G.; Mantua, Nathan J.; O’Farrell, Michael R.; Lindley, Steven T. (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, 2016)

Modeling the effect of temperature on ozone-related mortality - Wilson, Ander; Rappold, Ana G.; Neas, Lucas M.; Reich, Brian J. (Annals of Applied Statistics, 2014)
Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of ambient ozone levels and temperatures which, in turn, may impact public health. Much research has focused on the effect of short-term ozone exposures on mortality and morbidity while controlling for temperature as a confounder, but less is known about the joint effects of ozone and temperature. The extent of the health effects of changing ozone levels and temperatures will depend on whether these effects are additive or synergistic. In this paper we propose a spatial, semi-parametric model to estimate the joint ozone-temperature risk surfaces in 95 US urban areas. Our methodology restricts the ozone-temperature risk surfaces to be monotone in ozone and allows for both nonadditive and nonlinear effects of ozone and temperature. We use data from the National Mortality and Morbidity Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) and show that the proposed model fits the data better than additive linear and nonlinear models. We then examine the synergistic effect of ozone and temperature both nationally and locally and find evidence of a nonlinear ozone effect and an ozone-temperature interaction at higher temperatures and ozone concentrations.
Keywords: Air pollution monotone regression mortality ozone-temperature interaction semi-parametric regression spatial modeling

Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone–temperature risk surfaces - Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G. (Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology, 2017)

Temporary Protected Status: Overview and Current Issues - Wilson, Jill H. (Congressional Research Service, 2018)

The politics of adaptation: Subsistence livelihoods and vulnerability to climate change in the Koyukon Athabascan Village of Ruby, Alaska - Wilson, Nicole J. (Human Ecology, 2014)

Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems in the coastal and marine environments of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) - Wilson, Rich (CME Caribbean Marine Climate Change Report Card 2017: Science Review 2017, 2017)

Future land-use related water demand in California - Wilson, Tamara S; Sleeter, Benjamin M; Cameron, D Richard (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)

Phytoplankton response to a changing climate - Winder, Monika; Sommer, Ulrich (Hydrobiologia, 2012)
Phytoplankton are at the base of aquatic food webs and of global importance for ecosystem functioning and services. The dynamics of these photosynthetic cells are linked to annual fluctuations of temperature, water column mixing, resource availability, and consumption. Climate can modify these environmental factors and alter phytoplankton structure, seasonal dynamics, and taxonomic composition. Here, we review mechanistic links between climate alterations and factors limiting primary production, and highlight studies where climate change has had a clear impact on phytoplankton processes. Climate affects phytoplankton both directly through physiology and indirectly by changing water column stratification and resource availability, mainly nutrients and light, or intensified grazing by heterotrophs. These modifications affect various phytoplankton processes, and a widespread advance in phytoplankton spring bloom timing and changing bloom magnitudes have both been observed. Climate warming also affects phytoplankton species composition and size structure, and favors species traits best adapted to changing conditions associated with climate change. Shifts in phytoplankton can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. An improved understanding of the mechanistic links between climate and phytoplankton dynamics is important for predicting climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems.

Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States - Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Smith, Andrew M.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Johnson, Kris A.; Fargione, Joseph; Morefield, Philip (Environmental Research Letters, 2018)
Past attempts to estimate rainfall-driven flood risk across the US either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30 m resolution model of the entire conterminous US with a 2D representation of flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard, which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. These flood depths are combined with exposure datasets of commensurate resolution to calculate current and future flood risk. Our data show that the total US population exposed to serious flooding is 2.6–3.1 times higher than previous estimates, and that nearly 41 million Americans live within the 1% annual exceedance probability floodplain (compared to only 13 million when calculated using FEMA flood maps). We find that population and GDP growth alone are expected to lead to significant future increases in exposure, and this change may be exacerbated in the future by climate change.

Climate Change/Extreme Weather Vulnerability and Risk Assessment For Transportation Infrastructure in Dallas and Tarrant Counties - Winguth, Arne; Lee, Jun Hak; Ko, Yekang (North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) and Federal Highway Administration, 2015)

The urban heat island of the north-central Texas region and its relation to the 2011 severe Texas drought - Winguth, A. M. E.; Kelp, B. (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013)
Hourly surface temperature differences between Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas, metropolitan and rural sites have been used to calculate the urban heat island from 2001 to 2011. The heat island peaked after sunset and was particularly strong during the drought and heat wave in July 2011, reaching a single-day instantaneous maximum value of 5.4°C and a monthly mean maximum of 3.4°C, as compared with the 2001–11 July average of 2.4°C. This severe drought caused faster warming of rural locations relative to the metropolitan area in the morning as a result of lower soil moisture content, which led to an average negative heat island in July 2011 of −2.3°C at 1100 central standard time. The ground-based assessment of canopy air temperature at screening level has been supported by a remotely sensed surface estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra satellite, highlighting a dual-peak maximum heat island in the major city centers of Dallas and Fort Worth. Both ground-based and remotely sensed spatial analyses of the maximum heat island indicate a northwest shift, the result of southeast winds in July 2011 of ~2 m s−1 on average. There was an overall positive trend in the urban heat island of 0.14°C decade−1 in the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan area from 2001 to 2011, due to rapid urbanization. Superimposed on this trend are significant interannual and decadal variations that influence the urban climate.
Keywords: North America,Climate change,In situ atmospheric observations,Remote sensing,Urban meteorology

Ogallala Aquifer—Lifeblood of the High Plains. Part I: Withdrawals Exceed Recharge - Winter, Mary; Foster, Cliff (CoBank Knowledge Exchange Division, 2014)

Report for the Urban Flooding Awareness Act - Winters, Brad A.; Angel, Jim; Ballerine, Clayton; Byard, Jennifer; Flegel, Amanda; Gambill, Daniel; Jenkins, Emily; McConkey, Sally; Markus, Momcilo; Bender, Bruce A.; O’Toole, Molly J. (Illinois Department of Natural Resources, 2015)

Understanding the Link Between Climate and Health - Wisconsin Climate and Health Program (Wisconsin Department of Health Services, 2015)

Great Lakes and Wisconsin Water Facts: Great Lakes and Fresh Water - Wisconsin Sea Grant Institute (University of Wisconsin Sea Grant Institute, 2013)

2016 Wind Technologies Market Report - Wise, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark (DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2017)

Virginia Governor declares state of emergency ahead of Hurricane Irma - Wise, Scott (WTVR (CBS Affiliate), 2017)

Scenarios For Climate Adaptation: Guidebook For Practitioners - Wiseman, John; Bigg, Che; Rickards, Lauren; Edwards, Taegen (Victoria Centre for Climate Adaptation Research (VICCAR), 2011)
ISBN: 978 0 7340 4423 5

Assessing the costs and benefits of US renewable portfolio standards - Wiser, Ryan; Mai, Trieu; Millstein, Dev; Barbose, Galen; Bird, Lori; Heeter, Jenny; Keyser, David; Krishnan, Venkat; Macknick, Jordan (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
Renewable portfolio standards (RPS) exist in 29 US states and the District of Columbia. This article summarizes the first national-level, integrated assessment of the future costs and benefits of existing RPS policies; the same metrics are evaluated under a second scenario in which widespread expansion of these policies is assumed to occur. Depending on assumptions about renewable energy technology advancement and natural gas prices, existing RPS policies increase electric system costs by as much as $31 billion, on a present-value basis over 2015−2050. The expanded renewable deployment scenario yields incremental costs that range from $23 billion to $194 billion, depending on the assumptions employed. The monetized value of improved air quality and reduced climate damages exceed these costs. Using central assumptions, existing RPS policies yield $97 billion in air-pollution health benefits and $161 billion in climate damage reductions. Under the expanded RPS case, health benefits total $558 billion and climate benefits equal $599 billion. These scenarios also yield benefits in the form of reduced water use. RPS programs are not likely to represent the most cost effective path towards achieving air quality and climate benefits. Nonetheless, the findings suggest that US RPS programs are, on a national basis, cost effective when considering externalities.

Drought & Oregon's outdoor recreation - Wisler, Emily (The Climate CIRCulator, 2016)

Impacts of Russian biomass burning on UK air quality - Witham, Claire; Manning, Alistair (Atmospheric Environment, 2007)
Keywords: Smoke Atmospheric dispersion modelling Forest fires Long-range transport Pollution

Climate change and wildland firefighter health and safety - Withen, Patrick (New Solutions: A Journal of Environmental and Occupational Health Policy, 2015)

Groundfish Species Profiles - Witherell, David; Armstrong, Jim (North Pacific Fishery Management Council, 2015)

Officials seek state help for businesses impacted by fire - Withycombe, Claire (Capital Press (The West's Ag Weekly), 2017)

Assessment for Decision-Makers: Scientific Asssessment of Ozone Depletion: 2014 - WMO (World Meteorological Organization, 2014)

Regional Climate Outlook Forum - WMO (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Global Framework for Climate Services, 2016)

World Weather & Climate Extremes Archive - WMO (World Meteorological Organization (hosted by Arizona State University), 2017)

Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States - Wobus, Cameron; Small, Eric E.; Hosterman, Heather; Mills, David; Stein, Justin; Rissing, Matthew; Jones, Russell; Duckworth, Michael; Hall, Ronald; Kolian, Michael; Creason, Jared; Martinich, Jeremy (Global Environmental Change, 2017)
Keywords: Climate change Skiing Snowmobiling Snowmaking Adaptation

Urban green space, public health, and environmental justice: The challenge of making cities "just green enough" - Wolch, Jennifer R.; Byrne, Jason; Newell, Joshua P. (Landscape and Urban Planning, 2014)
Keywords: added by ERG

Altitudinal shifts of the native and introduced flora of California in the context of 20th‐century warming - Wolf, Adam; Zimmerman, Naupaka B.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Busby, Posy E.; Christensen, Jon (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2016)
Aim The differential responses of plant species to climate change are of great interest and grave concern for scientists and conservationists. One underexploited resource for better understanding these changes are the records held by herbaria. Using these records to assess the responses of different groups of species across the entire flora of California, we sought to quantify the magnitude of species elevational shifts, to measure differences in shifts among functional groups and between native and introduced species, and to evaluate whether these shifts were related to the conservation of thermal niches. Location California. Methods To characterize these shifts in California, we used 681,609 georeferenced herbarium records to estimate mean shifts in elevational and climatic space of 4426 plant taxa. We developed and employed a statistical method to robustly analyse the data represented in these records. Results We found that 15% of all taxa in California have ranges that have shifted upward over the past century. There are significant differences between range shifts of taxa with different naturalization statuses: 12% of endemic taxa show significant upward range shifts, while a greater proportion (27%) of introduced taxa have shifted upward. We found significant differences between the proportion of significant range shifts across taxa with different seed sizes, but did not find evidence for differences in shift based on life‐form (annual versus perennial, herbaceous versus woody). Main conclusions Our analyses suggest that introduced species have disproportionately expanded their ranges upward in elevation over the past century when compared with native species. While these shifts in introduced species may not be exclusively driven by climate, they highlight the importance of considering the interacting factors of climate‐driven range shifts and invasion to understand how floras are responding in the face of anthropogenic change.

Hydrologic regime and herbivory stabilize an alternative state in Yellowstone National Park - Wolf, Evan C.; Cooper, David J.; Hobbs, N. Thompson (Ecological Applications, 2007)
A decline in the stature and abundance of willows during the 20th century occurred throughout the northern range of Yellowstone National Park, where riparian woody‐plant communities are key components in multiple‐trophic‐level interactions. The potential causes of willow decline include climate change, increased elk browsing coincident with the loss of an apex predator, the gray wolf, and an absence of habitat engineering by beavers. The goal of this study was to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of willow establishment through the 20th century and to identify causal processes. Sampled willows established from 1917 to 1999 and contained far fewer young individuals than was predicted from a modeled stable willow population, indicating reduced establishment during recent decades. Two hydrologically distinct willow establishment environments were identified: fine‐grained beaver pond sediments and coarse‐grained alluvium. Willows established on beaver pond sediment earlier in time, higher on floodplain surfaces, and farther from the current stream channel than did willows on alluvial sediment. Significant linear declines from the 1940s to the 1990s in alluvial willow establishment elevation and lateral distance from the stream channel resulted in a much reduced area of alluvial willow establishment. Willow establishment was not well correlated with climate‐driven hydrologic variables, but the trends were consistent with the effects of stream channel incision initiated in ca. 1950, 20–30 years after beaver dam abandonment. Radiocarbon dates and floodplain stratigraphy indicate that stream incision of the present magnitude may be unprecedented in the past two millennia. We propose that hydrologic changes, stemming from competitive exclusion of beaver by elk overbrowsing, caused the landscape to transition from a historical beaver‐pond and willow‐mosaic state to its current alternative stable state where active beaver dams and many willow stands are absent. Because of hydrologic changes in streams, a rapid return to the historical state may not occur by reduction of elk browsing alone. Management intervention to restore the historical hydrologic regime may be necessary to recover willows and beavers across the landscape.

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations amplify Alternaria alternata sporulation and total antigen production - Wolf, J.; O’Neill, N.R. Rogers, C.A.; Muilenberg, M.L.; Ziska, L.H. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2010)

Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate - Wolfe, David W.; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Peck, Gregory M.; Carey, Mary; Ziska, Lewis H.; Lea-Cox, John; Kemanian, Armen R.; Hoffmann, Michael P.; Hollinger, David Y. (Climatic Change, 2018)

Phenological niches and the future of invaded ecosystems with climate change - Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cleland, Elsa E. (AoB PLANTS, 2014)
In recent years, research in invasion biology has focused increasing attention on understanding the role of phenology in shaping plant invasions. Multiple studies have found non-native species that tend to flower distinctly early or late in the growing season, advance more with warming or have shifted earlier with climate change compared with native species. This growing body of literature has focused on patterns of phenological differences, but there is a need now for mechanistic studies of how phenology contributes to invasions. To do this, however, requires understanding how phenology fits within complex functional trait relationships. Towards this goal, we review recent literature linking phenology with other functional traits, and discuss the role of phenology in mediating how plants experience disturbance and stress—via climate, herbivory and competition—across the growing season. Because climate change may alter the timing and severity of stress and disturbance in many systems, it could provide novel opportunities for invasion—depending upon the dominant climate controller of the system, the projected climate change, and the traits of native and non-native species. Based on our current understanding of plant phenological and growth strategies—especially rapid growing, early-flowering species versus later-flowering species that make slower-return investments in growth—we project optimal periods for invasions across three distinct systems under current climate change scenarios. Research on plant invasions and phenology within this predictive framework would provide a more rigorous test of what drives invader success, while at the same time testing basic plant ecological theory. Additionally, extensions could provide the basis to model how ecosystem processes may shift in the future with continued climate change.
10.1093/aobpla/plu013

Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change - Wolkovich, E. M.; Cook, B. I.; Allen, J. M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Betancourt, J. L.; Travers, S. E.; Pau, S.; Regetz, J.; Davies, T. J.; Kraft, N. J. B.; Ault, T. R.; Bolmgren, K.; et al. (Nature, 2012)

What history tells us about 2015 U.S. Daily rainfall extremes - Wolter, Klaus; Eischeid, Jon K.; Cheng, Linyin; Hoerling, Martin (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016)

American Indian and Alaska Native infant and pediatric mortality, United States, 1999–2009 - Wong, Charlene A.; Gachupin, Francine C.; Holman, Robert C.; MacDorman, Marian F.; Cheek, James E.; Holve, Steve; Singleton, Rosalyn J. (American Journal of Public Health, 2014)
OBJECTIVES: We described American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) infant and pediatric death rates and leading causes of death. METHODS: We adjusted National Vital Statistics System mortality data for AI/AN racial misclassification by linkage with Indian Health Service (IHS) registration records. We determined average annual death rates and leading causes of death for 1999 to 2009 for AI/AN versus White infants and children. We limited the analysis to IHS Contract Health Service Delivery Area counties. RESULTS: The AI/AN infant death rate was 914 (rate ratio [RR] = 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.55, 1.67). Sudden infant death syndrome, unintentional injuries, and influenza or pneumonia were more common in AI/AN versus White infants. The overall AI/AN pediatric death rates were 69.6 for ages 1 to 4 years (RR = 2.56; 95% CI = 2.38, 2.75), 28.9 for ages 5 to 9 years (RR = 2.12; 95% CI = 1.92, 2.34), 37.3 for ages 10 to 14 years (RR = 2.22; 95% CI = 2.04, 2.40), and 158.4 for ages 15 to 19 years (RR = 2.71; 95% CI = 2.60, 2.82). Unintentional injuries and suicide occurred at higher rates among AI/AN youths versus White youths. CONCLUSIONS: Death rates for AI/AN infants and children were higher than for Whites, with regional disparities. Several leading causes of death in the AI/AN pediatric population are potentially preventable.
1541-0048 Wong, Charlene A Gachupin, Francine C Holman, Robert C MacDorman, Marian F Cheek, James E Holve, Steve Singleton, Rosalyn J Journal Article United States Am J Public Health. 2014 Jun;104 Suppl 3:S320-8. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2013.301598. Epub 2014 Apr 22.
Keywords: Adolescent Alaska/epidemiology Cause of Death Child Child Mortality/*ethnology Child, Preschool Female Humans Indians, North American/*statistics & numerical data Infant Infant Mortality/*ethnology Infant, Newborn Inuits/*statistics & numerical data Male United States/epidemiology

Changes in sources and storage in a karst aquifer during a transition from drought to wet conditions - Wong, C. I.; Mahler, B. J.; Musgrove, M.; Banner, J. L. (Journal of Hydrology, 2012)
Keywords: Karst Drought Telogenetic Edwards aquifer Groundwater Texas

Abundance of urban male mosquitoes by green infrastructure types: Implications for landscape design and vector management - Wong, Gwendolyn K. L.; Jim, C. Y. (Landscape Ecology, 2018)
Urban green space (UGS) is widely espoused in sustainable urban design. Notwithstanding its ecosystem services, UGS is commonly perceived as inadvertent habitats for urban mosquitoes. Moreover, the lack of ecological understanding of mosquitoes and their urban habitats renders vector control in green spaces without reliance on chemical and bio-pesticides especially challenging.

Coastal systems and low-lying areas - Wong, P.P.; Losada, I.J.; Gattuso, J.-P.; Hinkel, J.; Khattabi, A.; McInnes, K.L.; Saito, Y.; Sallenger, A. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014)

Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense - Wong, Tony E.; Bakker, Alexander M. R.; Keller, Klaus (Climatic Change, 2017)
Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to rising global temperatures. This could potentially lead to several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. Previous studies have typically been silent on two coupled questions: (i) What are probabilistic estimates of this “fast dynamic” contribution to sea-level rise? (ii) What are the implications for strategies to manage coastal flooding risks? Here, we present probabilistic hindcasts and projections of sea-level rise to 2100. The fast dynamic mechanism is approximated by a simple parameterization, designed to allow for a careful quantification of the uncertainty in its contribution to sea-level rise. We estimate that global temperature increases ranging from 1.9 to 3.1 °C coincide with fast Antarctic disintegration, and these contributions account for sea-level rise of 21–74 cm this century (5–95% range, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We use a simple cost-benefit analysis of coastal defense to demonstrate in a didactic exercise how neglecting this mechanism and associated uncertainty can (i) lead to strategies which fall sizably short of protection targets and (ii) increase the expected net costs.

SEM-Pasifika: Socio-economic Monitoring Guidelines for Coastal Managers in Pacific Island Countries - Wongbusarakum, Supin; Pomeroy, Bob (Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme, 2008)

Phenological Synchrony and Bird Migration: Changing Climate and Seasonal Resources in North America - Wood, Eric M.; Kellermann, Jherime L. (CRC Press, 2017)

Monitoring network confirms land use change is a substantial component of the forest carbon sink in the eastern United States - Woodall, C. W.; Walters, B. F.; Coulston, J. W.; D’Amato, A. W.; Domke, G. M.; Russell, M. B.; Sowers, P. A. (Scientific Reports, 2015)

A tale of two forest carbon assessments in the eastern United States: Forest use versus cover as a metric of change - Woodall, Christopher W; Walters, Brian F; Russell, M. B; Coulston, J. W; Domke, Grant M; D’Amato, Anthony W; Sowers, P. A (Ecosystems, 2016)

Assessing the stability of tree ranges and influence of disturbance in eastern US forests - Woodall, C. W.; Zhu, K.; Westfall, J. A.; Oswalt, C. M.; D’Amato, A. W.; Walters, B. F.; Lintz, H. E. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2013)
Keywords: Canopy gaps Climate change Disturbance Tree range retreat Tree species migration Seedlings

Health impact modelling of active travel visions for England and Wales using an integrated transport and health impact modelling tool (ITHIM) - Woodcock, James; Givoni, Moshe; Morgan, Andrei Scott (PLOS ONE, 2013)
Achieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London. Methods Three scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools. Results This study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases. Conclusions Methods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to walking and cycling, and have implications for empirical and modelling research.

Tree rings and multiseason drought variability in the lower Rio Grande Basin, USA - Woodhouse, C. A.; Meko, D. M.; Griffin, D.; Castro, C. L. (Water Resources Research, 2013)
Keywords: Rio Grande basin drought impacts dendrochronology North American monsoon 1812 Drought 1833 Hydroclimatology 3335 North American Monsoon 3344 Paleoclimatology

Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow - Woodhouse, Connie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Morino, Kiyomi; McAfee, Stephanie A.; McCabe, Gregory J. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: Colorado River Basin warming temperatures water year streamflow soil moisture 1812 Drought 1860 Streamflow 1833 Hydroclimatology 3305 Climate change and variability 3354 Precipitation

Two modes of North American drought from instrumental and paleoclimatic data - Woodhouse, C. A.; Russell, J. L.; Cook, E. R. (Journal of Climate, 2009)
Droughts, which occur as a part of natural climate variability, are expected to increase in frequency and/or severity with global climate change. An improved understanding of droughts and their association with atmospheric circulation will add to the knowledge about the controls on drought, and the ways in which changes in climate may impact droughts. In this study, 1) major drought patterns across the United States have been defined, 2) the robustness of these patterns over time using tree-ring-based drought reconstructions have been evaluated, and 3) the drought patterns with respect to global atmospheric pressure patterns have been assessed. From this simple assessment, it is suggested that there are two major drought patterns across North America, which together account for about 30% of the total variance in drought patterns—one resembles the classic ENSO teleconnection, and the other displays an east–west drought dipole. The same two patterns are evident in the instrumental data and the reconstructed drought data for two different periods, 1404–2003 and 900–1350. The 500-mb circulation patterns associated with the two drought patterns suggest that the controls on drought may come from both Northern Hemisphere and tropical sources. The two drought patterns, and presumably their associated circulation patterns, vary in strength over time, indicating the combined effects of the two patterns on droughts over the past millennium.
Keywords: Drought,North America,Paleoclimate,Instrumentation/sensors,ENSO

Mangrove biogeography: The role of quaternary environmental and sea-level change - Woodroffe, Colin D.; Grindrod, John (Journal of Biogeography, 1991)

Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise - Woodroffe, C. D.; Rogers, K.; McKee, K. L.; Lovelock, C. E.; Mendelssohn, I. A.; Saintilan, N. (Annual Review of Marine Science, 2016)
Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions, related primarily to elevation and hydroperiod, influence mangrove distributions; this review considers how these distributions change over time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks, and tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas measurements made using surface elevation tables and marker horizons provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in a continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.*

Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise - Woodruff, Jonathan D.; Irish, Jennifer L.; Camargo, Suzana J. (Nature, 2013)
The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence.

Numerous strategies but limited implementation guidance in US local adaptation plans - Woodruff, Sierra C.; Stults, Missy (Nature Climate Change, 2016)
Adaptation planning offers a promising approach for identifying and devising solutions to address local climate change impacts. Yet there is little empirical understanding of the content and quality of these plans. We use content analysis to evaluate 44 local adaptation plans in the United States and multivariate regression to examine how plan quality varies across communities. We find that plans draw on multiple data sources to analyse future climate impacts and include a breadth of strategies. Most plans, however, fail to prioritize impacts and strategies or provide detailed implementation processes, raising concerns about whether adaptation plans will translate into on-the-ground reductions in vulnerability. Our analysis also finds that plans authored by the planning department and those that engaged elected officials in the planning process were of higher quality. The results provide important insights for practitioners, policymakers and scientists wanting to improve local climate adaptation planning and action.

The Role of U.S. Research Universities in Meeting the Global Food Security Challenge. 2016 AAAS Charles Valentine Riley Memorial Lecture - Woodson, Randy (American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2016)
View lecture at http://bcove.me/hl35imvp

Sentinel systems on the razor's edge: Effects of warming on Arctic geothermal stream ecosystems - Woodward, Guy; Dybkjær, John B.; Ólafsson, Jón S.; Gíslason, Gísli M.; Hannesdóttir, Elísabet R.; Friberg, Nikolai (Global Change Biology, 2010)
The Earth is experiencing historically unprecedented rates of warming, with surface temperatures projected to increase by 3–5°C globally, and up to 7.5°C in high latitudes, within the next century. Knowledge of how this will affect biological systems is still largely restricted to the lower levels of organization (e.g. species range shifts), rather than at the community, food web or ecosystem level, where responses cannot be predicted from studying single species in isolation. Further, many correlational studies are confounded with time and/or space, whereas experiments have been mostly confined to laboratory microcosms that cannot capture the true complexity of natural ecosystems. We used a ‘natural experiment’ in an attempt to circumvent these shortcomings, by characterizing community structure and trophic interactions in 15 geothermal Icelandic streams ranging in temperature from 5°C to 45°C. Even modest temperature increases had dramatic effects across multiple levels of organization, from changes in the mean body size of the top predators, to unimodal responses of species populations, turnover in community composition, and lengthening of food chains. Our results reveal that the rates of warming predicted for the next century have serious implications for the structure and functioning of these fragile ‘sentinel’ ecosystems across multiple levels of organization.

Adaptive flood risk management under climate change uncertainty using real options and optimization - Woodward, Michelle; Kapelan, Zoran; Gouldby, Ben (Risk Analysis, 2014)
It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex. All these elements pose severe difficulties to decisionmakers. This article describes a decision support methodology that has the capability to assess the most appropriate set of interventions to make in a flood system and the opportune time to make these interventions, given the future uncertainties. The flood risk strategies have been explicitly designed to allow for flexible adaptive measures by capturing the concepts of real options and multiobjective optimization to evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities. A state‐of‐the‐art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time and a multiobjective genetic algorithm is utilized to search for the optimal adaptive strategies. The modeling system has been applied to a reach on the Thames Estuary (London, England), and initial results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous, while the outputs provide decisionmakers with supplementary knowledge that previously has not been considered.

Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems - Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A.; Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Drazen, Jeffrey C. (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Climate change is expected to impact all aspects of marine ecosystems, including fisheries. Here, we use output from a suite of 11 earth system models to examine projected changes in two ecosystem-defining variables: temperature and food availability. In particular, we examine projected changes in epipelagic temperature and, as a proxy for food availability, zooplankton density. We find that under RCP8.5, a high business-as-usual greenhouse gas scenario, increasing temperatures may alter the spatial distribution of tuna and billfish species richness across the North Pacific basin. Furthermore, warmer waters and declining zooplankton densities may act together to lower carrying capacity for commercially valuable fish by 2 – 5% per decade over the 21st century. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the magnitude, composition, and distribution of commercial fish catch across the pelagic North Pacific. Such changes will in turn ultimately impact commercial fisheries’ economic value. Fishery managers should anticipate these climate impacts in order to ensure sustainable fishery yields and livelihoods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Keywords: CMIP5 Ecosystems CMIP Climate Change Impacts marine ecosystems impact fisheries ocean and marine resources carrying capacity commercial fisheries North Pacific pelagic habitat zooplankton

Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: Large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current - Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A.; Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Dunne, John P.; Blanchard, Julia L. (Global Change Biology, 2013)
Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size-based food web model includes linkages between two size-structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top-down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate-induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses.
Keywords: climate projections Ecosystems marine ecosystems fisheries catch ocean and marine resources North Pacific biomes ecosystem model size structure

The sensitivity of WRF downscaled precipitation in Puerto Rico to cumulus parameterization and interior grid nudging - Wootten, A.; Bowden, J. H.; Boyles, R.; Terando, A. (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2016)
The sensitivity of the precipitation over Puerto Rico that is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is evaluated using multiple combinations of cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes and interior grid nudging. The NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2) is downscaled to 2-km horizontal grid spacing both with convective-permitting simulations (CP active only in the middle and outer domains) and with CP schemes active in all domains. The results generally show lower simulated precipitation amounts than are observed, regardless of WRF configuration, but activating the CP schemes in the inner domain improves the annual cycle, intensity, and placement of rainfall relative to the convective-permitting simulations. Furthermore, the use of interior-grid-nudging techniques in the outer domains improves the placement and intensity of rainfall in the inner domain. Incorporating a CP scheme at convective-permitting scales (<4 km) and grid nudging at non-convective-permitting scales (>4 km) improves the island average correlation of precipitation by 0.05–0.2 and reduces the island average RMSE by up to 40 mm on average over relying on the explicit microphysics at convective-permitting scales with grid nudging. Projected changes in summer precipitation between 2040–42 and 1985–87 using WRF to downscale CCSM4 range from a 2.6-mm average increase to an 81.9-mm average decrease, depending on the choice of CP scheme. The differences are only associated with differences between WRF configurations, which indicates the importance of CP scheme for projected precipitation change as well as historical accuracy.
Keywords: Precipitation,Model evaluation/performance,Regional models

Heat waves: Their impact on the health of elders - Worfolk, Jean B. (Geriatric Nursing, 2000)

Flooding Delays Barge Traffic - Workboat Staff (WorkBoat.com, 2015)

Portion of Upper Mississippi River Closed Near St. Louis - Workboat Staff (2017)

Aggregation of articles documenting Mississippi River flood-related closures - Workboat Staff (WorkBoat.com)

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change. Synthesis Report - World Bank (World Bank, The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2010)

Climate and Disaster Resilience - World Bank (World Bank-Pacific Possible, 2016)

WCRP website - World Climate Research Programme (World Climate Research Programme, 2017)

The Global Risks Report 2018 - World Economic Forum (World Economic Forum, 2018)
ISBN: 978-1-944835-15-6

CAIT Climate Data Explorer [web tool] - World Resources Institute (World Resources Institute, 2018)

The Coca-Cola Company and World Wildlife Fund Expand Global Partnership, Announce New Environmental Goals - World Wildlife Federation (World Wildlife Federation, 2013)

Improving the cost-effectiveness of IRS with climate informed health surveillance systems - Worrall, Eve; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C. (Malaria Journal, 2008)
This paper examines how the cost-effectiveness of IRS varies depending on the severity of transmission and level of programme coverage and how efficiency could be improved by incorporating climate information into decision making for malaria control programmes as part of an integrated Malaria Early Warning and Response System (MEWS).

Recent declines of Populus tremuloides in North America linked to climate - Worrall, James J.; Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Hamann, Andreas; Hogg, Edward H.; Marchetti, Suzanne B.; Michaelian, Michael; Gray, Laura K. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2013)
Keywords: Decline Dieback Die-off Drought Climate envelope Climatic niche

Workshop Report - Wotkyns, Susan (Southwest Tribal Climate Change Workshop, 2011)

Limits in detecting acceleration of ice sheet mass loss due to climate variability - Wouters, B.; Bamber, J. L.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Sasgen, I. (Nature Geoscience, 2013)

Recent grassland losses are concentrated around U.S. ethanol refineries - Wright, Christopher K.; Larson, Ben; Lark, Tyler J.; Gibbs, Holly K. (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
Although the United States has pursued rapid development of corn ethanol as a matter of national biofuel policy, relatively little is known about this policy’s widespread impacts on agricultural land conversion surrounding ethanol refineries. This knowledge gap impedes policy makers’ ability to identify and mitigate potentially negative environmental impacts of ethanol production. We assessed changes to the landscape during initial implementation of the Renewable Fuel Standard v2 (RFS2) from 2008 to 2012 and found nearly 4.2 million acres of arable non-cropland converted to crops within 100 miles of refinery locations, including 3.6 million acres of converted grassland. Aggregated across all ethanol refineries, the rate of grassland conversion to cropland increased linearly with proximity to a refinery location. Despite this widespread conversion of the landscape, recent cropland expansion could have made only modest contributions to mandated increases in conventional biofuel capacity required by RFS2. Collectively, these findings demonstrate a shortcoming in the existing ‘aggregate compliance’ method for enforcing land protections in the RFS2 and suggest an alternative monitoring mechanism would be needed to appropriately capture the scale of observed land use changes.

Recent land use change in the Western Corn Belt threatens grasslands and wetlands - Wright, Christopher K.; Wimberly, Michael C. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
In the US Corn Belt, a recent doubling in commodity prices has created incentives for landowners to convert grassland to corn and soybean cropping. Here, we use land cover data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service Cropland Data Layer to assess grassland conversion from 2006 to 2011 in the Western Corn Belt (WCB): five states including North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa. Our analysis identifies areas with elevated rates of grass-to-corn/soy conversion (1.0–5.4% annually). Across the WCB, we found a net decline in grass-dominated land cover totaling nearly 530,000 ha. With respect to agronomic attributes of lands undergoing grassland conversion, corn/soy production is expanding onto marginal lands characterized by high erosion risk and vulnerability to drought. Grassland conversion is also concentrated in close proximity to wetlands, posing a threat to waterfowl breeding in the Prairie Pothole Region. Longer-term land cover trends from North Dakota and Iowa indicate that recent grassland conversion represents a persistent shift in land use rather than short-term variability in crop rotation patterns. Our results show that the WCB is rapidly moving down a pathway of increased corn and soybean cultivation. As a result, the window of opportunity for realizing the benefits of a biofuel industry based on perennial bioenergy crops, rather than corn ethanol and soy biodiesel, may be closing in the WCB.

Sensitivity of lake-effect snowfall to lake ice cover and temperature in the Great Lakes region - Wright, David M.; Posselt, Derek J.; Steiner, Allison L. (Monthly Weather Review, 2013)
High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations are used to explore the sensitivity of Great Lakes lake-effect snowfall (LES) to changes in lake ice cover and surface temperature. A control simulation with observed ice cover is compared with three sensitivity tests: complete ice cover, no lake ice, and warmer lake surface temperatures. The spatial pattern of unfrozen lake surfaces determines the placement of LES, and complete ice cover eliminates it. Removal of ice cover and an increase in lake temperatures result in an expansion of the LES area both along and downwind of the lake shore, as well as an increase in snowfall amount. While lake temperatures and phase determine the amount and spatial coverage of LES, the finescale distribution of LES is strongly affected by the interaction between lake surface fluxes, the large-scale flow, and the local lake shore geography and inland topography. As a consequence, the sensitivity of LES to topography and shore geometry differs for lakes with short versus long overwater fetch. These simulations indicate that coarse-resolution models may be able to realistically reproduce the gross features of LES in future climates, but will miss the important local-scale interactions that determine the location and intensity of LES.
Keywords: Lake effects,Mesoscale processes,Snowbands,Climate change,Regional effects,Mesoscale models

Voluntary Resilience Standards: An Assessment of the Emerging Market for Resilience in the Built Environment - Wright, Kathryn; Whitehouse, Kalee; Curti, Julie (Meister Consultants Group, 2017)

Bridging the gap between climate change science and structural engineering practice - Wright, Richard N.; Ayyub, Bilal M.; Lombardo, Franklin T. (Structure Magazine, 2013)

Water treatment implications after the High Park Wildfire, Colorado - Writer, Jeffrey H.; Hohner, Amanda; Oropeza, Jill; Schmidt, Amanda; Cawley, Kaelin M.; Rosario-Ortiz, Fernando L. (Journal—American Water Works Association, 2014)

Washington Tracking Network: A Source for Environmental Public Health Data [web tool] - WSDOH (Washington State Department of Health (WSDOH), 2018)

Landslide Mitigation Action Plan - WSDOT (Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), 2014)

Creating a Resilient Transportation Network in Skagit County: Using Flood Studies to Inform Transportation Asset Management - WSDOT (Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), 2015)

Climate change impacts on mycotoxin risks in US maize - Wu, F.; Bhatnagar, D.; Bui-Klimke, T.; Carbone, I.; Hellmich, R.; Munkvold, G.; Paul, P.; Payne, G.; Takle, E. (World Mycotoxin Journal, 2011)

Rural-urban interdependence: A framework integrating regional, urban, and environmental economic insights - Wu, JunJie; Weber, Bruce A.; Partridge, Mark D. (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2017)
Economic development in rural areas affects the natural environment, which in turn affects economic growth—both rural and urban. These shared interests and feedback effects in the natural environment are increasingly recognized as important economic and political issues, and necessitate a new framework for better understanding them. This article asks why such a framework does not exist and why it should be developed. It then presents such a framework by integrating regional, urban, and environmental economic insights. The framework focuses on the interactive location decisions of firms and households and centripetal forces for concentration and centrifugal forces for decentralization. The article captures the economic and environmental consequences of rural-urban relocation and feedback effects through changes in agglomeration economies, congestion costs, natural and social amenities, and the location of economic opportunities. Results show that some feedback effects reinforce the initial forces, but others weaken them. We present two examples to demonstrate the application of the framework. The first focuses on how agglomeration economies affect the effectiveness of environmental regulation and illustrates the benefits of incorporating regional and urban economic insights into environmental policy analysis. The second example focuses on how conservation policy can create localized amenities that help resource-rich regions avoid the natural resource curse and illustrates how concepts and perspectives from resource and environmental economics can improve our understanding of regional and rural issues.

Effects of 2000–2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States - Wu, Shiliang; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Rind, David; Streets, David G. (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2008)

Water Utility Climate Alliance 2017–2021 Strategic Plan - WUCA Strategic Planning Committee (Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA), 2016)

Appendix A: Observational datasets used in climate studies - Wuebbles, D.J. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

Our globally changing climate - Wuebbles, D.J.; Easterling, D.R.; Hayhoe, K.; Knutson, T.; Kopp, R.E.; Kossin, J.P.; Kunkel, K.E.; LeGrande, A.N.; Mears, C.; Sweet, W.V.; Taylor, P.C.; Vose, R.S.; et al. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

Executive summary - Wuebbles, D.J.; Fahey, D.W.; Hibbard, K.A.; DeAngelo, B.; Doherty, S.; Hayhoe, K.; Horton, R.; Kossin, J.P.; Taylor, P.C.; Waple, A.M.; Weaver, C.P. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

Connecting knowledge with action through coproductive capacities: Adaptive governance and connectivity conservation - Wyborn, Carina A. (Ecology and Society, 2015)
Effective adaptive governance will emerge from strong relationships between science, governance, and practice. However, these relationships receive scant critical attention among adaptive governance scholarship. To address this lacuna, Jasanoff’s “idiom of coproduction” provides a lens to view the dialectical relationships between science and society. This view sees science and governance as coevolving through iterative relationships between the material, cognitive, social, and normative dimensions of a problem. This coevolution is precisely the aspiration of adaptive governance; however, the notion of coproduction must be grounded to provide practical guidance for groups aspiring to “govern adaptively.” I have drawn on three concepts, namely coproduction, bridging/boundary organizations, and adaptive capacity, to present a conceptual framework of “coproductive capacities.” Coproductive capacities are the material, cognitive, social, and normative capacities that enable groups of actors to connect knowledge with action in a cross-scale governance context. This framework was applied to two cases of connectivity conservation. Inspired by the science of conservation biology, connectivity conservation promotes collaborative, cross-scale governance to conserve biodiversity at a landscape scale. This tight coupling of science and governance in a cross-scale context makes connectivity conservation a classic case of both coproduction and adaptive governance. However, the inability of the initiatives in the cases examined to turn their visions into action highlights a critical absence of key capacities. In particular, challenges faced in connecting knowledge with action at various scales points to the importance of building relationships between actors across scales. The structures and mechanisms of governance have dominated adaptive governance scholarship, yet coproductive capacity and adaptive governance emerge from the relationships between actors seeking to connect knowledge with action. Building capacity to negotiate these relationships is a more fruitful focus for adaptive governance than design principles and diagnostics.
Keywords: adaptive capacity adaptive governance boundary organizations bridging organizations connectivity conservation coproduction coproductive capacities

Emergence of white pine needle damage in the northeastern United States is associated with changes in pathogen pressure in response to climate change - Wyka, Stephen A.; Smith, Cheryl; Munck, Isabel A.; Rock, Barrett N.; Ziniti, Beth L.; Broders, Kirk (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: climatic modeling disease complex emerging pathogens Lecanosticta acicola pathogens and climate change plant pathogen epidemiology precipitation Septorioides strobus

Race and wildfire risk perceptions among rural forestland owners in north-central Florida - Wyman, Miriam; Malone, Sparkle; Stein, Taylor; Johnson, Cassandra (Society & Natural Resources, 2012)

El Niño—The dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing - Wyrtki, K. (Journal of Physical Oceanography, 1975)

Public Service Company of Colorado: 2016 Electric Resource Plan. 2017 All Source Solicitation 30-Day Report. (Public Version) - Xcel Energy (Xcel Energy Inc., 2017)

Going with the flow: Using species–discharge relationships to forecast losses in fish biodiversity - Xenopoulos, Marguerite A.; Lodge, David M. (Ecology, 2006)
In response to the scarcity of tools to make quantitative forecasts of the loss of aquatic species from anthropogenic effects, we present a statistical model that relates fish species richness to river discharge. Fish richness increases logarithmically with discharge, an index of habitat space, similar to a species–area curve in terrestrial systems. We apply the species–discharge model as a forecasting tool to build scenarios of changes in riverine fish richness from climate change, water consumption, and other anthropogenic drivers that reduce river discharge. Using hypothetical reductions in discharges (of magnitudes that have been observed in other rivers), we predict that reductions of 20–90% in discharge would result in losses of 2–38% of the fish species in two biogeographical regions in the United States (Lower Ohio–Upper Mississippi and Southeastern). Additional data on the occurrence of specific species relative to specific discharge regimes suggests that fishes found exclusively in high discharge environments (e.g., Shovelnose sturgeon) would be most vulnerable to reductions in discharge. Lag times in species extinctions after discharge reduction provide a window of opportunity for conservation efforts. Applications of the species–discharge model can help prioritize such management efforts among species and rivers.

Continental-scale water and energy flux analysis and validation for the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2): 1. Intercomparison and application of model products - Xia, Youlong; Mitchell, Kenneth; Ek, Michael; Sheffield, Justin; Cosgrove, Brian; Wood, Eric; Luo, Lifeng; Alonge, Charles; Wei, Helin; Meng, Jesse; Livneh, Ben; Lettenmaier, Dennis; et al. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012)
Keywords: NLDAS-2 energy budget land surface modeling water budget 1620 Climate dynamics 1814 Energy budgets 1833 Hydroclimatology 1840 Hydrometeorology 1846 Model calibration

How much groundwater did California's Central Valley lose during the 2012–2016 drought? - Xiao, Mu; Koppa, Akash; Mekonnen, Zelalem; Pagán, Brianna R.; Zhan, Shengan; Cao, Qian; Aierken, Abureli; Lee, Hyongki; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: groundwater loss Central Valley water balance 1829 Groundwater hydrology 1876 Water budgets

Green-up of deciduous forest communities of northeastern North America in response to climate variation and climate change - Xie, Yingying; Ahmed, Kazi F.; Allen, Jenica M.; Wilson, Adam M.; Silander, John A. (Landscape Ecology, 2015)
Temporal shifts in phenology are important biotic indicators of climate change. Satellite-derived Land Surface Phenology (LSP) offers data for the study of vegetation phenology at landscape to global spatial scales. However, the mechanisms of plant phenological responses to temperature are rarely considered at broad spatial scales, despite the potential improvements to spatiotemporal predictions. Geographical gradients in community species composition may also affect LSP spatially and temporally. Using a modified survival analysis, we reveal how weather and climate relate to physiological chilling and heating requirements and affect deciduous forest green-up in New England, USA over 9 years (2001–2009). While warm daily temperatures lead to earlier green-up of deciduous forests, chilling temperatures had a larger influence on green-up. We also found that the effects of community composition across the landscape were as important as the effects of weather. Greater oak dominance led to later green-up, while sites with more birch tended to have earlier green-up dates. Projection into the future (2046–2065) with statistically downscaled, bias corrected climate model output suggested advanced green-up (8–48 days) driven by higher heating and chilling accumulations, but green-up in coastal areas may be delayed due to reduced chilling accumulation. This study provides an innovative statistical method combining plant physiological mechanisms, topographic spatial heterogeneity, and species composition to predict how LSP responds to climate and weather variation and makes future projections.

Unexpected benefits of reducing aerosol cooling effects - Xing, Jia; Wang, Jiandong; Mathur, Rohit; Pleim, Jonathan; Wang, Shuxiao; Hogrefe, Christian; Gan, Chuen-Meei; Wong, David C.; Hao, Jiming (Environmental Science & Technology, 2016)

Potential effects of interaction between CO2 and temperature on forest landscape response to global warming - Xu, Chonggang; Gertner, George Z; Scheller, Robert M (Global Change Biology, 2007)

Genetic characterization of clinical and environmental Vibrio parahaemolyticus from the Northeast USA reveals emerging resident and non-indigenous pathogen lineages - Xu, Feng; Ilyas, Saba; Hall, Jeffrey A.; Jones, Stephen H.; Cooper, Vaughn S.; Whistler, Cheryl A. (Frontiers in Microbiology, 2015)
Gastric infections caused by the environmentally transmitted pathogen, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, have increased over the last two decades, including in many parts of the United States (US). However, until recently, infections linked to shellfish from the cool northeastern US waters were rare. Cases have risen in the Northeast, consistent with changes in local V. parahaemolyticus populations towards greater abundance or a shift in constituent pathogens. We examined 94 clinical isolates from a period of increasing disease in the region and compared them to 200 environmental counterparts to identify resident and non-indigenous lineages and to gain insight into the emergence of pathogenic types. Genotyping and multi-locus sequence analysis of clinical isolates collected from 2010-2013 in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine revealed their polyphyletic nature. Although 80% of the clinical isolates harbored the trh hemolysin either alone or with tdh, and were urease positive, 14% harbored neither hemolysin exposing a limitation for these traits in pathogen detection. Resident sequence type (ST) 631 strains caused seven infections, and show a relatively recent history of recombination with other clinical and environmental lineages present in the region. ST34 and ST674 strains were each linked to a single infection and these strain types were also identified from the environment as isolates harboring hemolysin genes. Forty-three ST36 isolates were identified from the clinical collection, consistent with reports that this strain type caused a rise in regional infections starting in 2012. Whole-genome phylogenies that included three ST36 outbreak isolates traced to at least two local sources demonstrated that the US Atlantic coastal population of this strain type was indeed derived from the Pacific population. This study lays the foundation for understanding dynamics within natural populations associated with emergence and invasion of pathogenic strain types in the region.
Keywords: disease ecology,emergent pathogen,MLSA,Vibriosis,population structure,pathogen evolution,hemolysin

Sensitivity to climate change of land use and management patterns optimized for efficient mitigation of nutrient pollution - Xu, Hui; Brown, Daniel G.; Steiner, Allison L. (Climatic Change, 2018)
Beginning in the mid-1990s, re-eutrophication has reemerged as severe problems in Lake Erie. Controlling non-point source (NPS) nutrient pollution from cropland, especially dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), is the key to restore water quality in Lake Erie. To address NPS pollution, previous studies have analyzed the effectiveness of alternative spatially optimal land use and management strategies (represented as agricultural conservation practices (CPs)). However, few studies considered both strategies and have analyzed and compared their sensitivity to expected changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change and increased greenhouse gas concentrations. In this study, we evaluated impacts of climatic change on the economic efficiency of these strategies for DRP abatement, using an integrated modeling approach that includes a watershed model, an economic valuation component, and a spatial optimization model. A series of climate projections representing relatively high greenhouse gas emission scenarios was developed for the western Lake Erie basin to drive the watershed model. We found that performance of solutions optimized for current climate was degraded significantly under projected future climate conditions. In terms of robustness of individual strategies, CPs alone were more robust to climate change than land use change alone or together with CPs, but relying on CPs alone fails to achieve a high (> 71%) DRP reduction target. A combination of CPs and land use changes was required to achieve policy goals for DRP reductions (targeted at ~ 78%). Our results point to the need for future spatial optimization studies and planning to consider adaptive capacity of conservation actions under a changing climate.

Climate change, water rights, and water supply: The case of irrigated agriculture in Idaho - Xu, Wenchao; Lowe, Scott E.; Adams, Richard M. (Water Resources Research, 2014)
Keywords: water supply water rights climate change Prior Appropriation Doctrine 0402 Agricultural systems 1884 Water supply 1880 Water management

Salt marsh-mangrove ecotones: Using structural gradients to investigate the effects of woody plant encroachment on plant–soil interactions and ecosystem carbon pools - Yando, Erik S.; Osland, Michael J.; Willis, Jonathan M.; Day, Richard H.; Krauss, Ken W.; Hester, Mark W. (Journal of Ecology, 2016)
Keywords: carbon storage climate change ecotone forest development mangrove forest plant–soil (below-ground) interactions range expansion salt marsh soil development woody plant encroachment

The impact analysis of water body landscape pattern on urban heat island: A case study of Wuhan City - Yang, Bohan; Meng, Fen; Ke, Xinli; Ma, Caixue (Advances in Meteorology, 2015)

Intensification and poleward shift of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate - Yang, Hu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Wei, Wei; Dima, Mihai; Ionita, Monica; Liu, Jiping (Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 2016)
Keywords: western boundary currents intensification poleward shift global warming Kuroshio Current Gulf Stream 4576 Western boundary currents 4532 General circulation 4504 Air/sea interactions 1630 Impacts of global change 1637 Regional climate change

Environmental impacts of reflective materials: Is high albedo a "silver bullet" for mitigating urban heat island? - Yang, Jiachuan; Wang, Zhi-Hua; Kaloush, Kamil E. (Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015)
Keywords: Building energy efficiency Cool roofs Reflective materials Regional hydroclimate Thermal comfort Urban heat island mitigation Urban sustainability

Recent increases in Arctic freshwater flux affects Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning circulation - Yang, Qian; Dixon, Timothy H.; Myers, Paul G.; Bonin, Jennifer; Chambers, Don; van den Broeke, M. R. (Nature Communications, 2016)

Observed surface warming induced by urbanization in east China - Yang, Xuchao; Hou, Yiling; Chen, Baode (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011)

The future nexus of the Brahmaputra River Basin: Climate, water, energy and food trajectories - Yang, Y. C. Ethan; Wi, Sungwook; Ray, Patrick A.; Brown, Casey M.; Khalil, Abedalrazq F. (Global Environmental Change, 2016)
Keywords: The Yarlung Tsangpo River The Jamuna River Water resources systems analysis Transboundary water management Ex post scenario analysis

Modelling temperature effects on milk production: A study on Holstein cows at a Japanese farm - Yano, Machiko; Shimadzu, Hideyasu; Endo, Toshiki (SpringerPlus, 2014)
Milk yield and its composition vary according to individual cows as well as to a variety of different environment conditions, such as temperature. Previous studies suggest that heat exerts considerable negative effects on milk production and its composition, especially during summer months. We investigate the production and fat composition of milk from individual dairy cows and develop a modelling framework that investigates the effect of temperature by extending a traditional lactation curve model onto a more flexible statistical modelling framework, a generalised additive model (GAM). The GAM simultaneously copes with multiple different conditions (temperature, parity, days of lactation, etc.), and, importantly, their non-linear relationships. Our analysis of retrospective data suggests that individual cows respond differently to heat; cows producing relatively high quantities of milk tend to be particularly sensitive to heat. Our model also suggests that most dairy cows studied fall into three distinct cases that underpin the variation of the milk fat ratio by different mechanisms.

Do heat events pose a greater health risk for individuals with Type 2 diabetes? - Yardley, Jane E.; Stapleton, Jill M.; Sigal, Ronald J.; Kenny, Glen P. (Diabetes Technology & Therapeutics, 2013)

Potential impacts of climate change on reservoir services and management approaches - Yasarer, Lindsey M. W.; Sturm, Belinda S. M. (Lake and Reservoir Management, 2016)

The influence of future electricity mix alternatives on southwestern US water resources - Yates, D.; Meldrum, J.; Averyt, K. (Environmental Research Letters, 2013)
A climate driven, water resource systems model of the southwestern US was used to explore the implications of growth, extended drought, and climate warming on the allocation of water among competing uses. The analysis focused on the water benefits from alternative thermoelectric generation mixes, but included other uses, namely irrigated agriculture, municipal indoor and outdoor use, and environmental and inter-state compact requirements. The model, referred to as WEAP-SW, was developed on the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform, and is scenario-based and forward projecting from 2008 to 2050. The scenario includes a southwest population that grows from about 55 million to more than 100 million, a prolonged dry period, and a long-term warming trend of 2 ° C by mid-century. In addition, the scenario assumes that water allocation under shortage conditions would prioritize thermoelectric, environmental, and inter-state compacts by shorting first irrigated agriculture, then municipal demands. We show that while thermoelectric cooling water consumption is relatively small compared with other uses, the physical realities and the legal and institutional structures of water use in the region mean that relatively small differences in regional water use across different electricity mix scenarios correspond with more substantial impacts on individual basins and water use sectors. At a region-wide level, these choices influence the buffer against further water stress afforded the region through its generous storage capacity in reservoirs.

Divergence of seafloor elevation and sea level rise in coral reef ecosystems - Yates, K. K.; Zawada, D. G.; Smiley, N. A.; Tiling-Range, G. (Biogeosciences, 2017)
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Ambient temperature and morbidity: A review of epidemiological evidence - Ye, X.; Wolff, R.; Yu, W.; Vaneckova, P.; Pan, X.; Tong, S. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2012)

Summary of salmonid rehabilitation lessons from the urbanizing Pacific Northwest - Yeakley, J. Alan; Maas-Hebner, Kathleen G.; Hughes, Robert M. (Wild Salmonids in the Urbanizing Pacific Northwest, 2014)
We return to the central question of the book: Can viable wild salmonid populations coexist with humans in urban and urbanizing areas? In the intervening chapters, we described how urbanization degrades the habitat and viability of wild salmonid populations. We also presented a variety of potential remedies, including both social and biophysical aspects of wild salmonid rehabilitation and protection in urbanizing areas. Social remedies include policy approaches, planning strategies, market-based solutions, and citizen engagement efforts. Biophysical remedies include rehabilitation approaches both at local and watershed scales. In this final chapter, we review our major conclusions about urbanization stresses on salmonids, we summarize some of the most salient aspects of the remedies that we have presented, and we conclude with our answer to the central question of the book.

Historically unprecedented erosion from Tropical Storm Irene due to high antecedent precipitation - Yellen, Brian; Woodruff, Jonathan D.; Cook, Timothy L.; Newton, Robert M. (Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2016)
Lacustrine sediment archives indicate that flooding during Tropical Storm Irene (2011) in the north-eastern United States caused the most severe erosion of any flood in the historic record, surpassing that of events with greater precipitation and peak discharges. Compared to deposition from historic floods, Irene's event layer was more massive and more enriched in unweathered upland sediments, indicating an anomalously high incidence of mass wasting and sediment entrainment. Precipitation records indicate that neither precipitation intensity nor total accumulation distinguished Irene from less erosive historic floods. However, cumulative precipitation prior to Irene exceeded the 95th percentile of all days in the record. When allowing for non-stationarity in the twentieth century background precipitation, we find a four-fold increase in the probability of Irene-like conditions, where impacts of extreme rainfall are enhanced by high antecedent precipitation. We conclude that irrespective of increases in extreme precipitation, the risk of highly erosive flooding in the region is increasing due to the influence of wetter baseline conditions associated with a changing climate. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Oceanic control of sea level rise patterns along the East Coast of the United States - Yin, Jianjun; Goddard, Paul B. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2013)
Keywords: sea level rise U.S. East Coast dynamic sea level tide gauge and altimetry data sea level rise modeling 1641 Sea level change 1622 Earth system modeling 4556 Sea level: variations and mean

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States - Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J. (Nature Geoscience, 2009)

The impact of excess heat events in Maricopa County, Arizona: 2000–2005 - Yip, Fuyuen Y.; Flanders, W. Dana; Wolkin, Amy; Engelthaler, David; Humble, William; Neri, Antonio; Lewis, Lauren; Backer, Lorraine; Rubin, Carol (International Journal of Biometeorology, 2008)
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Injury Prevention Store - YKHC (Yukon-Kuskokwim Health Corporation (YKHC), 2017)

Colorado Front Range flood of 2013: Peak flows and flood frequencies - Yochum, Steven E. (3rd Joint Federal Interagency Conference (10th Federal Interagency Sedimentation Conference and 5th Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference), 2015)

Assessment of the potential health impacts of climate change in Alaska - Yoder, Sarah ([State of Alaska] Epidemiology Bulletin, 2018)

Mitigative capacity—The mirror image of adaptive capacity on the emissions side - Yohe, Gary W. (Climatic Change, 2001)

The Evolving Picture of Displacement in the Wake of Typhoon Haiyan: An Evidence-Based Overview - Yonetani, Michelle; Yuen, Lorelle; Sophonpanich, Wan; Navaee, Mariano; Maulit, Mark; Kyaw, Phyo (Government of the Philippines’ Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD); International Organization for Migration (IOM); Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC); SAS, 2014)

Strip-Tilled and Direct-Seeded Vegetables Integrated with Cattle Grazing: Eric Williamson. A Farmer to Farmer Case Study - Yorgey, Georgine; Borrelli, Kristy; McGuire, Andrew; Painter, Kathleen (Pacific Northwest Extension, 2018)

Flex Cropping and Precision Agriculture Technologies: Bill Jepsen. A Farmer to Farmer Case Study - Yorgey, Georgine; Kantor, Sylvia; Painter, Kate; Roe, Dennis; Davis, Hilary; Bernacchi, Leigh (Pacific Northwest Externsion, 2016)

A grower case study approach for transdisciplinary integration and technology transfer [poster] - Yorgey, G.; Painter, K.; Davis, H.; Borrelli, K.; Brooks, E.; Kruger, C. (Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Implications for Educators, Industry, and Producers, 2016)

Northwest U.S. agriculture in a changing climate: Collaboratively defined research and extension priorities - Yorgey, Georgine G.; Hall, Sonia A.; Allen, Elizabeth R.; Whitefield, Elizabeth M.; Embertson, Nichole M.; Jones, Vincent P.; Saari, Brooke R.; Rajagopalan, Kirti; Roesch-McNally, Gabrielle E.; Van Horne, Beatrice; Abatzoglou, John T.; Collins, Harold P.; et al. (Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2017)
In order for agricultural systems to successfully mitigate and adapt to climate change there is a need to coordinate and prioritize next steps for research and extension. This includes focusing on “win-win” management practices that simultaneously provide short-term benefits to farmers and improve the sustainability and resiliency of agricultural systems with respect to climate change. In the Northwest U.S., a collaborative process has been used to engage individuals spanning the research-practice continuum. This collaborative approach was utilized at a 2016 workshop titled “Agriculture in a Changing Climate,” that included a broad range of participants including university faculty and students, crop and livestock producers, and individuals representing state, tribal and federal government agencies, industry, nonprofit organizations, and conservation districts. The Northwest U.S. encompasses a range of agro-ecological systems and diverse geographic and climatic contexts. Regional research and science communication efforts for climate change and agriculture have a strong history of engaging diverse stakeholders. These features of the Northwest U.S. provide a foundation for the collaborative research and extension prioritization presented here. We focus on identifying research and extension actions that can be taken over the next five years in four areas identified as important areas by conference organizers and participants: (1) cropping systems, (2) livestock systems, (3) decision support systems to support consideration of climate change in agricultural management decisions; and (4) partnerships among researchers and stakeholders. We couple insights from the workshop and a review of current literature to articulate current scientific understanding, and priorities recommended by workshop participants that target existing knowledge gaps, challenges, and opportunities. Priorities defined at the Agriculture in a Changing Climate workshop highlight the need for ongoing investment in interdisciplinary research integrating social, economic and biophysical sciences, strategic collaborations, and knowledge sharing to develop actionable science that can support informed decision-making in the agriculture sector as the climate changes.
Keywords: Actionable science,Climate services,Knowledge coproduction,Climate Change,mitigation,adaptation,Agriculture,Stakeholders

Oregon Climate and Health Resilience Plan - York, Emily; Sifuentes, Julie (Oregon Health Authority, 2016)

Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change - Young, Adam M.; Higuera, Philip E.; Duffy, Paul A.; Hu, Feng Sheng (Ecography, 2017)

High-impact hydrologic events and atmospheric rivers in California: An investigation using the NCEI Storm Events Database - Young, Allison M.; Skelly, Klint T.; Cordeira, Jason M. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: atmospheric river flood flash flood debris flow 1840 Hydrometeorology 1821 Floods 1817 Extreme events 1854 Precipitation 3364 Synoptic-scale meteorology

Long‐term climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought - Young, Derek JN; Stevens, Jens T; Earles, J Mason; Moore, Jeffrey; Ellis, Adam; Jirka, Amy L; Latimer, Andrew M (Ecology Letters, 2017)

Knowledge synthesis to support risk assessment of climate change impacts on food and water safety: A case study of the effects of water temperature and salinity on Vibrio parahaemolyticus in raw oysters and harvest waters - Young, Ian; Gropp, Kathleen; Fazil, Aamir; Smith, Ben A. (Food Research International, 2015)
Keywords: Systematic review Meta-analysis Climate change Oysters Food safety

Altering biocrusts for an altered climate - Young, Kristina E.; Grover, Henry S.; Bowker, Matthew A. (New Phytologist, 2016)

Biogeography of the Anthropocene: Novel species assemblages - Young, Kenneth R. (Progress in Physical Geography, 2014)
Humans have altered the land cover and biogeochemical cycles of Earth, with many implications for how the study of the distributions of organisms should change. A new biogeography of the Anthropocene could help to develop additional criteria to evaluate the degree and timing of human impacts, and innovative ways to proactively manage biological diversity. Many recent studies have used paleoecological methods to evaluate no-analog conditions in the past, or modeling to evaluate possible futures. Additional approaches are needed for assessment and prediction of how new groupings of species will function ecologically under future climatic and landscape conditions, including methods for studying the effects of biotic homogenization, species extinctions, introduced species, and altered ecosystem processes.
Keywords: biodiversity,biogeography,conservation biogeography,land-cover change,no-analog climate,no-analog species assemblage,novel ecosystem,paleoecology,species extinction

Adaptive governance for a changing Arctic - Young, Oran R. (Asian Countries and the Arctic Future, 2016)

As climate shifts, so do pests: A national forum and assessment - Young, Stephen L. (Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America, 2017)

The built environment, climate change, and health: Opportunities for co-benefits - Younger, M.; Morrow-Almeida, H.R.; Vindigni, S.M.; Dannenberg, A.L. (American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2008)

Projection of wildfire activity in Southern California in the mid-twenty-first century - Yue, Xu; Mickley, Loretta J; Logan, Jennifer A (Climate Dynamics, 2014)

Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: Consequences for ozone air quality - Yue, X.; Mickley, L. J.; Logan, J. A.; Hudman, R. C.; Martin, M. V.; Yantosca, R. M. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2015)

Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century - Yue, Xu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Kaplan, Jed O. (Atmospheric Environment, 2013)
Keywords: Wildfire Ensemble projection Fuel load Aerosol concentration

Probing the past 30-year phenology trend of US deciduous forests - Yue, X.; Unger, N.; Keenan, T. F.; Zhang, X.; Vogel, C. S. (Biogeosciences, 2015)
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Lateral transport of soil carbon and land−atmosphere CO2 flux induced by water erosion in China - Yue, Yao; Ni, Jinren; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Tao; Huang, Mengtian; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Li, Tianhong; Wang, Yichu; Chappell, Adrian; Van Oost, Kristof (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Soil erosion by water impacts soil organic carbon stocks and alters CO2 fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere. The role of erosion as a net sink or source of atmospheric CO2 remains highly debated, and little information is available at scales larger than small catchments or regions. This study attempts to quantify the lateral transport of soil carbon and consequent land−atmosphere CO2 fluxes at the scale of China, where severe erosion has occurred for several decades. Based on the distribution of soil erosion rates derived from detailed national surveys and soil carbon inventories, here we show that water erosion in China displaced 180 ± 80 Mt C⋅y−1 of soil organic carbon during the last two decades, and this resulted a net land sink for atmospheric CO2 of 45 ± 25 Mt C⋅y−1, equivalent to 8–37% of the terrestrial carbon sink previously assessed in China. Interestingly, the “hotspots,” largely distributed in mountainous regions in the most intensive sink areas (>40 g C⋅m−2⋅y−1), occupy only 1.5% of the total area suffering water erosion, but contribute 19.3% to the national erosion-induced CO2 sink. The erosion-induced CO2 sink underwent a remarkable reduction of about 16% from the middle 1990s to the early 2010s, due to diminishing erosion after the implementation of large-scale soil conservation programs. These findings demonstrate the necessity of including erosion-induced CO2 in the terrestrial budget, hence reducing the level of uncertainty.

Guide to Equitable, Community-Driven Climate Preparedness Planning - Yuen, Tina; Yurkovich, Eric; Grabowski, Lauren; Atltshuler, Beth (Urban Sustainability Directors Network, 2017)

Effect of regional grid mix, driving patterns and climate on the comparative carbon footprint of gasoline and plug-in electric vehicles in the United States - Yuksel, Tugce; Tamayao, Mili-Ann M.; Hendrickson, Chris; Azevedo, Inês M. L.; Michalek, Jeremy J. (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
We compare life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from several light-duty passenger gasoline and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) across US counties by accounting for regional differences due to marginal grid mix, ambient temperature, patterns of vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and driving conditions (city versus highway). We find that PEVs can have larger or smaller carbon footprints than gasoline vehicles, depending on these regional factors and the specific vehicle models being compared. The Nissan Leaf battery electric vehicle has a smaller carbon footprint than the most efficient gasoline vehicle (the Toyota Prius) in the urban counties of California, Texas and Florida, whereas the Prius has a smaller carbon footprint in the Midwest and the South. The Leaf is lower emitting than the Mazda 3 conventional gasoline vehicle in most urban counties, but the Mazda 3 is lower emitting in rural Midwest counties. The Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid electric vehicle has a larger carbon footprint than the Prius throughout the continental US, though the Volt has a smaller carbon footprint than the Mazda 3 in many urban counties. Regional grid mix, temperature, driving conditions, and vehicle model all have substantial implications for identifying which technology has the lowest carbon footprint, whereas regional patterns of VMT have a much smaller effect. Given the variation in relative GHG implications, it is unlikely that blunt policy instruments that favor specific technology categories can ensure emission reductions universally.

Association between the ambient temperature and the occurrence of human Salmonella and Campylobacter infections - Yun, Josef; Greiner, Matthias; Höller, Christiane; Messelhäusser, Ute; Rampp, Albert; Klein, Günter (Scientific Reports, 2016)

Yurok Tribe Sustainable Forest Project: Climate Action Reserve (CAR) 777 - Yurok Tribe (Yurok Tribe, 2013)

Fire council ignites long term burn plan - Yurok Wildland Fire Crew (Yorok Today: The Voice of the Yurok People, 2014)

Climate change, drought and human health in Canada - Yusa, Anna; Berry, Peter; J.Cheng, June; Ogden, Nicholas; Bonsal, Barrie; Stewart, Ronald; Waldick, Ruth (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2015)

Global agricultural land resources—A high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions - Zabel, Florian; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Mauser, Wolfram (PLOS ONE, 2014)
Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981–2010), considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071–2100 with 1981–2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

Recent changes in the trophic structure of the Black Sea - Zaitsev, Yu P. (Fisheries Oceanography, 1992)
Keywords: Black Sea eutrophication fisheries introduced species hypoxia anoxia pollution plankton

Wheat yield loss attributable to heat waves, drought and water excess at the global, national and subnational scales - Zampieri, M.; Ceglar, A.; Dentener, F.; Toreti, A. (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
Heat waves and drought are often considered the most damaging climatic stressors for wheat. In this study, we characterize and attribute the effects of these climate extremes on wheat yield anomalies (at global and national scales) from 1980 to 2010. Using a combination of up-to-date heat wave and drought indexes (the latter capturing both excessively dry and wet conditions), we have developed a composite indicator that is able to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of the underlying physical processes in the different agro-climatic regions of the world. At the global level, our diagnostic explains a significant portion (more than 40%) of the inter-annual production variability. By quantifying the contribution of national yield anomalies to global fluctuations, we have found that just two concurrent yield anomalies affecting the larger producers of the world could be responsible for more than half of the global annual fluctuations. The relative importance of heat stress and drought in determining the yield anomalies depends on the region. Moreover, in contrast to common perception, water excess affects wheat production more than drought in several countries. We have also performed the same analysis at the subnational level for France, which is the largest wheat producer of the European Union, and home to a range of climatic zones. Large subnational variability of inter-annual wheat yield is mostly captured by the heat and water stress indicators, consistently with the country-level result.

A Review of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Current Practices and Lessons Learned From the U.S. Department of Energy’s Partnership for Energy Sector Climate Resilience - Zamuda, Craig (U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis, 2016)

Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand - Zamuda, C.; Bilello, D.E.; Conzelmann, G.; Mecray, E.; Satsangi, A.; Tidwell, V.; Walker, B.J. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather - Zamuda, Craig; Mignone, Bryan; Bilello, Dan; Hallett, KC; Lee, Courtney; Macknick, Jordan; Newmark, Robin; Steinberg, Daniel (U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Policy and International Affairs, 2013)

Effects of temperature variability on community structure in a natural microbial food web - Zander, Axel; Bersier, Louis-Félix; Gray, Sarah M. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: bacterial density food web structure microcosm protist community Sarracenia purpurea successional stage temperature variation

Internet of things for smart cities - Zanella, A.; Bui, N.; Castellani, A.; Vangelista, L.; Zorzi, M. (IEEE Internet of Things Journal, 2014)
Keywords: Internet Internet of Things protocols Padova smart city project Smart City vision advanced communication technology digital services heterogeneous end systems link layer technology urban IoT system value-addedservices Business IEEE 802.15 Standards Monitoring Smart buildings Smart homes Urban areas 6lowPAN Constrained Application Protocol (CoAP) Efficient XML Interchange (EXI) Smart Cities network architecture sensor system integration service functions and management testbed and trials

Summer temperature variability and long-term survival among elderly people with chronic disease - Zanobetti, A.; O'Neill, M.S.; Gronlund, C.J.; Schwartz, J.D. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2012)

Is there adaptation in the ozone mortality relationship: A multi-city case-crossover analysis - Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel (Environmental Health, 2008)
Ozone has been associated with daily mortality, mainly in the summer period. Despite the ample literature on adaptation of inflammatory and pulmonary responses to ozone, and the link, in cohort studies, between lung function and mortality risk there has been little done to date to examine the question of adaptation in the acute mortality risk associated with ambient ozone.

Low-carbon energy generates public health savings in California - Zapata, C. B.; Yang, C.; Yeh, S.; Ogden, J.; Kleeman, M. J. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2018)
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Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years - Zeebe, Richard E.; Ridgwell, Andy; Zachos, James C. (Nature Geoscience, 2016)
Carbon release rates from anthropogenic sources reached a record high of [sim]10[thinsp]Pg C[thinsp]yr-1 in 2014. Geologic analogues from past transient climate changes could provide invaluable constraints on the response of the climate system to such perturbations, but only if the associated carbon release rates can be reliably reconstructed. The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is known at present to have the highest carbon release rates of the past 66 million years, but robust estimates of the initial rate and onset duration are hindered by uncertainties in age models. Here we introduce a new method to extract rates of change from a sedimentary record based on the relative timing of climate and carbon cycle changes, without the need for an age model. We apply this method to stable carbon and oxygen isotope records from the New Jersey shelf using time-series analysis and carbon cycle-climate modelling. We calculate that the initial carbon release during the onset of the PETM occurred over at least 4,000 years. This constrains the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate to less than 1.1[thinsp]Pg C[thinsp]yr-1. We conclude that, given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. We suggest that such a /`no-analogue[rsquor] state represents a fundamental challenge in constraining future climate projections. Also, future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.

Managing water utility financial risks through third-party index insurance contracts - Zeff, Harrison B.; Characklis, Gregory W. (Water Resources Research, 2013)
Keywords: drought management economics risk management index insurance 1880 Water management 1812 Drought 1884 Water supply

Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways - Zeff, Harrison B.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Reed, Patrick M.; Characklis, Gregory W. (Water Resources Research, 2016)
Keywords: adaptive planning water management financial risk 1880 Water management 1884 Water supply 1873 Uncertainty assessment 1872 Time series analysis

Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection - Zeigler, Sara L.; Thieler, E. Robert; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hines, Megan; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Karpanty, Sarah M. (Wildlife Society Bulletin, 2017)
Keywords: Atlantic coast barrier islands Bayesian network Charadrius melodus coastal geomorphology habitat availability iPlover nesting habitat piping plovers

Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century - Zemp, Michael; Frey, Holger; Gärtner-Roer, Isabelle; Nussbaumer, Samuel U.; Hoelzle, Martin; Paul, Frank; Haeberli, Wilfried; Denzinger, Florian; Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Anderson, Brian; Bajracharya, Samjwal; Baroni, Carlo; et al. (Journal of Glaciology, 2015)
Observations show that glaciers around the world are in retreat and losing mass. Internationally coordinated for over a century, glacier monitoring activities provide an unprecedented dataset of glacier observations from ground, air and space. Glacier studies generally select specific parts of these datasets to obtain optimal assessments of the mass-balance data relating to the impact that glaciers exercise on global sea-level fluctuations or on regional runoff. In this study we provide an overview and analysis of the main observational datasets compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). The dataset on glacier front variations (∼42 000 since 1600) delivers clear evidence that centennial glacier retreat is a global phenomenon. Intermittent readvance periods at regional and decadal scale are normally restricted to a subsample of glaciers and have not come close to achieving the maximum positions of the Little Ice Age (or Holocene). Glaciological and geodetic observations (∼5200 since 1850) show that the rates of early 21st-century mass loss are without precedent on a global scale, at least for the time period observed and probably also for recorded history, as indicated also in reconstructions from written and illustrated documents. This strong imbalance implies that glaciers in many regions will very likely suffer further ice loss, even if climate remains stable.
Keywords: GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS GLACIER MASS BALANCE MOUNTAIN GLACIERS

Sea Level Variations of the United States 1854–2006 - Zervas, Chris (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, 2009)

Extreme Water Levels of the United States 1893–2010 - Zervas, Chris (NOAA National Ocean Service, 2013)

Multi-State ZEV Task Force [web site] - ZEV (Multi-State ZEV (Zero-Emission Vehicle) Task Force, 2018)

Dynamical downscaling of the climate for the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: Projection for the late twenty-first century - Zhang, Chunxi; Wang, Yuqing; Hamilton, Kevin; Lauer, Axel (Journal of Climate, 2016)
A 20-yr simulation with a fine-resolution regional atmospheric model for projected late twenty-first-century conditions in Hawaii is presented. The pseudo-global-warming method is employed, and the boundary conditions are based on a multimodel mean of projections made with global coupled models run with a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results show that surface air temperature over land increases ~2°–4°C with the greatest warming at the highest topographic heights. A modest tendency for the warming to be larger on the leeward sides of the major islands is also apparent. Climatological rainfall is projected to change up to ~25% at many locations. The currently wet windward sides of the major islands will have more clouds and receive more rainfall, while the currently dry leeward sides will generally have even less clouds and rainfall. The average trade wind inversion–base height and the mean marine boundary layer cloud heights are projected to exhibit only small changes. However, the frequency of days with clearly defined trade wind inversions is predicted to increase substantially (~83% to ~91%). The extreme rainfall events are projected to increase significantly. An analysis of the model’s moisture budget in the lower troposphere shows that the increased mean rainfall on the windward sides of the islands is largely attributable to increased boundary layer moisture in the warmer climate. Rainfall changes attributable to mean low-level circulation changes are modest in comparison.

Impact of the 2011 heat wave on mortality and emergency department visits in Houston, Texas - Zhang, Kai; Chen, Tsun-Hsuan; Begley, Charles E. (Environmental Health, 2015)
Heat waves have been linked to increased risk of mortality and morbidity, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in a changing climate. Houston and other areas in Texas experienced an exceptional heat wave in the summer of 2011 producing the hottest August on record. This study aims to assess the health-related impact of this heat wave.

The role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges - Zhang, Keqi; Liu, Huiqing; Li, Yuepeng; Xu, Hongzhou; Shen, Jian; Rhome, Jamie; Smith, Thomas J. (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2012)
Keywords: storm surges mangroves bioshields Hurricane Wilma surge modeling

Can transit-oriented development reduce peak-hour congestion? - Zhang, Ming (Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2010)
This paper presents a study of whether transit-oriented development (TOD) helps reduce peak-hour congestion, a topic of ongoing public debate. Applying conventional four-step travel demand modeling techniques, the study simulates traffic outcomes in three TOD scenarios in the Austin, Texas, area, where a commuter rail line is under construction and TOD proposals are being developed. With TOD, the portion of congested roadway in the Austin region is estimated to decrease by nearly 770 lane miles. Daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are reduced by 10 to 12 million in the region, or by 3.5 to 4.5 person miles traveled (PMT) per person. This magnitude of congestion relief for peak-hour commuting indicates a potentially significant amount of savings in highway investments through TOD practice. No major modal shifts from driving to transit or non-motorized modes occur in the TOD scenario. Still, PMT for transit is estimated to grow significantly. TOD's role as a congestion relief strategy largely lies in the concentrated development that shortens average trip length and hence generates less VMT and PMT than low-density sprawl. The study results also reveal challenges facing TOD practice: the non-TOD area benefits more than the TOD area, although TOD improves congestion regionwide. Traffic conditions in the TOD area may actually worsen due to the TOD-based concentration of people and jobs. Promoting walking or biking to minimize local driving is thus critical for TOD to succeed.