Physical Climate Risk in Equity Portfolios - Mazzacurati, Emilie; Mallard, Daniela Vargas; Joshua Turner; Steinberg, Nik; Shaw, Colin (Four Twenty Seven for Deutsche Asset Management, 2017)

Cold-induced mortality of invasive Burmese pythons in south Florida - Mazzotti, Frank J.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Hart, Kristen M.; Snow, Ray W.; Rochford, Michael R.; Dorcas, Michael E.; Reed, Robert N. (Biological Invasions, 2011)
A recent record cold spell in southern Florida (2–11 January 2010) provided an opportunity to evaluate responses of an established population of Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) to a prolonged period of unusually cold weather. We observed behavior, characterized thermal biology, determined fate of radio-telemetered (n = 10) and non-telemetered (n = 104) Burmese pythons, and analyzed habitat and environmental conditions experienced by pythons during and after a historic cold spell. Telemetered pythons had been implanted with radio-transmitters and temperature-recording data loggers prior to the cold snap. Only one of 10 telemetered pythons survived the cold snap, whereas 59 of 99 (60%) non-telemetered pythons for which we determined fate survived. Body temperatures of eight dead telemetered pythons fluctuated regularly prior to 9 January 2010, then declined substantially during the cold period (9–11 January) and exhibited no further evidence of active thermoregulation indicating they were likely dead. Unusually cold temperatures in January 2010 were clearly associated with mortality of Burmese pythons in the Everglades. Some radio-telemetered pythons appeared to exhibit maladaptive behavior during the cold spell, including attempting to bask instead of retreating to sheltered refugia. We discuss implications of our findings for persistence and spread of introduced Burmese pythons in the United States and for maximizing their rate of removal.

Large reptiles and cold temperatures: Do extreme cold spells set distributional limits for tropical reptiles in Florida? - Mazzotti, Frank J.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Parry, Mark; Beauchamp, Jeff; Rochford, Mike; Smith, Brian; Hart, Kristen; Brandt, Laura A. (Ecosphere, 2016)
Keywords: American alligator American crocodile Burmese pythons Everglades mortality record cold spell Special Feature: Extreme Cold Spells

Blue Book 2014: Ridership and Service Statistics - MBTA (Massachusetts Bay Transit Authority (MBTA), 2014)

Environmental Guidelines - MCC (Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), 2010)

Trends and variability in snowmelt runoff in the western United States - McCabe, Gregory J.; Clark, Martyn P. (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2005)
The timing of snowmelt runoff (SMR) for 84 rivers in the western United States is examined to understand the character of SMR variability and the climate processes that may be driving changes in SMR timing. Results indicate that the timing of SMR for many rivers in the western United States has shifted to earlier in the snowmelt season. This shift occurred as a step change during the mid-1980s in conjunction with a step increase in spring and early-summer atmospheric pressures and temperatures over the western United States. The cause of the step change has not yet been determined.

Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States - McCabe, Gregory J.; Palecki, Michael A.; Betancourt, Julio L. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2004)
More than half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence possibly related to increasing Northern Hemisphere temperatures or some other unidirectional climate trend. Recent droughts with broad impacts over the conterminous U.S. (1996, 1999–2002) were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and northeastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). Much of the long-term predictability of drought frequency may reside in the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, we suggest two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s (positive PDO) and 1950s (negative PDO) drought.

Variability and Trends in Runoff Efficiency in the Conterminous United States - McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M. (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2016)
Keywords: runoff efficiency runoff climate variability climate trends

Variability of runoff-based drought conditions in the conterminous United States - McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.; Austin, Samuel H. (International Journal of Climatology, 2017)
Keywords: drought climatic change climate variability

Evidence that recent warming is reducing upper Colorado River flows - McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McAfee, Stephanie (Earth Interactions, 2017)
The upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) is one of the primary sources of water for the western United States, and increasing temperatures likely will elevate the risk of reduced water supply in the basin. Although variability in water-year precipitation explains more of the variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than water-year UCRB temperature, since the late 1980s, increases in temperature in the UCRB have caused a substantial reduction in UCRB runoff efficiency (the ratio of streamflow to precipitation). These reductions in flow because of increasing temperatures are the largest documented temperature-related reductions since record keeping began. Increases in UCRB temperature over the past three decades have resulted in a mean UCRB water-year streamflow departure of −1306 million m3 (or −7% of mean water-year streamflow). Additionally, warm-season (April through September) temperature has had a larger effect on variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than the cool-season (October through March) temperature. The greater contribution of warm-season temperature, relative to cool-season temperature, to variability of UCRB flow suggests that evaporation or snowmelt, rather than changes from snow to rain during the cool season, has driven recent reductions in UCRB flow. It is expected that as warming continues, the negative effects of temperature on water-year UCRB streamflow will become more evident and problematic.
Keywords: Hydrology,Hydrometeorology,Water budget,Climate variability

An unprecedented coastwide toxic algal bloom linked to anomalous ocean conditions - McCabe, Ryan M.; Hickey, Barbara M.; Kudela, Raphael M.; Lefebvre, Kathi A.; Adams, Nicolaus G.; Bill, Brian D.; Gulland, Frances M. D.; Thomson, Richard E.; Cochlan, William P.; Trainer, Vera L. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: harmful algal bloom Pseudo-nitzschia australis domoic acid upwelling warm anomaly toxin 1616 Climate variability 4279 Upwelling and convergences 4217 Coastal processes 4855 Phytoplankton 4815 Ecosystems, structure, dynamics, and modeling

Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change - McCain, Christy M.; King, Sarah R. B. (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Keywords: behavior elevation latitude mammal microclimate physiology thermal niches

The challenge of climate change adaptation for agriculture: An economically oriented review - McCarl, Bruce A.; Thayer, Anastasia W.; Jones, Jason P. H. (Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2016)
Climate change is occurring. Deviations from historic temperatures and precipitation plus increased frequency of extreme events are modifying agriculture systems globally. Adapting agricultural management practices offers a way to lessen the effects or exploit opportunities. Herein many aspects of the adaptation issue are discussed, including needs, strategies, observed actions, benefits, economic analysis approaches, role of public/private actors, limits, and project evaluation. We comment on the benefits and shortcomings of analytical methods and suggested economic efforts. Economists need to play a role in such diverse matters as projecting adaptation needs, designing adaptation incentives, and evaluating projects to ensure efficiency and effectiveness.
Keywords: Agriculture climate change adaptation

Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations - McCarthy, Gerard D.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Hirschi, Joël J. M.; Grist, Jeremy P.; Smeed, David A. (Nature, 2015)

Canopy leaf area constrains [CO2]-induced enhancement of productivity and partitioning among aboveground carbon pools - McCarthy, Heather R.; Oren, Ram; Finzi, Adrien C.; Johnsen, Kurt H. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2006)

Urban form and air quality in the United States - McCarty, Joshua; Kaza, Nikhil (Landscape and Urban Planning, 2015)
Keywords: Landscape metrics Air quality Urban morphology

Shifts in fishing grounds - McCay, Bonnie J. (Nature Climate Change, 2012)

Human dimensions of climate change and fisheries in a coupled system: The Atlantic surfclam case - McCay, Bonnie J.; Brandt, Sylvia; Creed, Carolyn F. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2011)
Research on changes in a coupled marine system of the Mid-Atlantic Bight, focusing on Atlantic surfclams and the associated fishery and management system, is reviewed for how the human dimensions of this coupled socio-ecological system are addressed by the researchers. Our foci are on economic modelling of spatial choices, using dynamic optimization with adjustments that reflect better the natural and socio-economic realities of the fishery and on ethnographic observations of decision processes, particularly those of the regional fishery management council, with particular emphasis on cognitive frames and management communities. These are designed to be integrated with and to complement biophysical modelling of the complex coupled socio-ecological system.

Oxygen in the Southern California Bight: Multidecadal trends and implications for demersal fisheries - McClatchie, S.; Goericke, R.; Cosgrove, R.; Auad, G.; Vetter, R. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2010)
Keywords: oxygen climate southern California rockfish fisheries 0404 Anoxic and hypoxic environments 4271 Physical and chemical properties of seawater 4215 Climate and interannual variability

Ghost reefs: Nautical charts document large spatial scale of coral reef loss over 240 years - McClenachan, Loren; O’Connor, Grace; Neal, Benjamin P.; Pandolfi, John M.; Jackson, Jeremy B. C. (Science Advances, 2017)
Massive declines in population abundances of marine animals have been documented over century-long time scales. However, analogous loss of spatial extent of habitat-forming organisms is less well known because georeferenced data are rare over long time scales, particularly in subtidal, tropical marine regions. We use high-resolution historical nautical charts to quantify changes to benthic structure over 240 years in the Florida Keys, finding an overall loss of 52% (SE, 6.4%) of the area of the seafloor occupied by corals. We find a strong spatial dimension to this decline; the spatial extent of coral in Florida Bay and nearshore declined by 87.5% (SE, 7.2%) and 68.8% (SE, 7.5%), respectively, whereas that of offshore areas of coral remained largely intact. These estimates add to finer-scale loss in live coral cover exceeding 90% in some locations in recent decades. The near-complete elimination of the spatial coverage of nearshore coral represents an underappreciated spatial component of the shifting baseline syndrome, with important lessons for other species and ecosystems. That is, modern surveys are typically designed to assess change only within the species’ known, extant range. For species ranging from corals to sea turtles, this approach may overlook spatial loss over longer time frames, resulting in both overly optimistic views of their current conservation status and underestimates of their restoration potential.

Animal water balance drives top-down effects in a riparian forest—Implications for terrestrial trophic cascades - McCluney, Kevin E.; Sabo, John L. (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2016)
Despite the clear importance of water balance to the evolution of terrestrial life, much remains unknown about the effects of animal water balance on food webs. Based on recent research suggesting animal water imbalance can increase trophic interaction strengths in cages, we hypothesized that water availability could drive top-down effects in open environments, influencing the occurrence of trophic cascades. We manipulated large spider abundance and water availability in 20 × 20 m open-air plots in a streamside forest in Arizona, USA, and measured changes in cricket and small spider abundance and leaf damage. As expected, large spiders reduced both cricket abundance and herbivory under ambient, dry conditions, but not where free water was added. When water was added (free or within moist leaves), cricket abundance was unaffected by large spiders, but spiders still altered herbivory, suggesting behavioural effects. Moreover, we found threshold-type increases in herbivory at moderately low soil moisture (between 5.5% and 7% by volume), suggesting the possibility that water balance may commonly influence top-down effects. Overall, our results point towards animal water balance as an important driver of direct and indirect species interactions and food web dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems.

Evolutionary consequences of habitat loss for Pacific anadromous salmonids - McClure, Michelle M.; Carlson, Stephanie M.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Pess, George R.; Jorgensen, Jeffrey C.; Sogard, Susan M.; Sultan, Sonia E.; Holzer, Damon M.; Travis, Joseph; Sanderson, Beth L.; Power, Mary E.; Carmichael, Richard W. (Evolutionary Applications, 2008)
Large portions of anadromous salmonid habitat in the western United States has been lost because of dams and other blockages. This loss has the potential to affect salmonid evolution through natural selection if the loss is biased, affecting certain types of habitat differentially, and if phenotypic traits correlated with those habitat types are heritable. Habitat loss can also affect salmonid evolution indirectly, by reducing genetic variation and changing its distribution within and among populations. In this paper, we compare the characteristics of lost habitats with currently accessible habitats and review the heritability of traits which show correlations with habitat/environmental gradients. We find that although there is some regional variation, inaccessible habitats tend to be higher in elevation, wetter and both warmer in the summer and colder in the winter than habitats currently available to anadromous salmonids. We present several case studies that demonstrate either a change in phenotypic or life history expression or an apparent reduction in genetic variation associated with habitat blockages. These results suggest that loss of habitat will alter evolutionary trajectories in salmonid populations and Evolutionarily Significant Units. Changes in both selective regime and standing genetic diversity might affect the ability of these taxa to respond to subsequent environmental perturbations. Both natural and anthropogenic and should be considered seriously in developing management and conservation strategies.

Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges - McCollum, David L.; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Kolp, Peter; Grubler, Arnulf; Makowski, Marek; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa (Climatic Change, 2013)
This paper assesses three key energy sustainability objectives: energy security improvement, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of air pollution and its human health impacts. We explain how the common practice of narrowly focusing on singular issues ignores potentially enormous synergies, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift toward more holistic policy approaches. Our analysis of a large ensemble of alternate energy-climate futures, developed using MESSAGE, an integrated assessment model, shows that stringent climate change policy offers a strategic entry point along the path to energy sustainability in several dimensions. Concerted decarbonization efforts can lead to improved air quality, thereby reducing energy-related health impacts worldwide: upwards of 2–32 million fewer disability-adjusted life years in 2030, depending on the aggressiveness of the air pollution policies foreseen in the baseline. At the same time, low-carbon technologies and energy-efficiency improvements can help to further the energy security goals of individual countries and regions by promoting a more dependable, resilient, and diversified energy portfolio. The cost savings of these climate policy synergies are potentially enormous: $100–600 billion annually by 2030 in reduced pollution control and energy security expenditures (0.1–0.7 % of GDP). Novel aspects of this paper include an explicit quantification of the health-related co-benefits of present and future air pollution control policies; an analysis of how future constraints on regional trade could influence energy security; a detailed assessment of energy expenditures showing where financing needs to flow in order to achieve the multiple energy sustainability objectives; and a quantification of the relationships between different fulfillment levels for energy security and air pollution goals and the probability of reaching the 2 °C climate target.

Ohio's Forest Economy - McConnell, Eric (Ohio State University Extension, 2012)

Asthma in exercising children exposed to ozone: A cohort study - McConnell, Rob; Berhane, Kiros; Gilliland, Frank; London, Stephanie J.; Islam, Talat; Gauderman, W. James; Avol, Edward; Margolis, Helene G.; Peters, John M. (The Lancet, 2002)

Advancing sustainable urban transformation - McCormick, Kes; Anderberg, Stefan; Coenen, Lars; Neij, Lena (Journal of Cleaner Production, 2013)
Keywords: Sustainable urban transformation Sustainable urban development Climate change Sustainable development Governance Planning Transformative change

State of Climate Change Science in the Great Lakes Basin: A Focus on Climatological, Hydrological, and Ecological Effects - McDermid, J. L.; Dickin, S. K.; Winsborough, C. L.; Switzman, H.; Barr, S.; Gleeson, J. A.; Krantzberg, G.; Gray, P. A. (2015)
ISBN 987-1-77283-000-2

Long-term climate impacts on breeding bird phenology in Pennsylvania, USA - McDermott, Molly E.; DeGroote, Lucas W. (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Climate change is influencing bird phenology worldwide, but we still lack information on how many species are responding over long temporal periods. We assessed how climate affected passerine reproductive timing and productivity at a constant effort mist-netting station in western Pennsylvania using a model comparison approach. Several lines of evidence point to the sensitivity of 21 breeding passerines to climate change over five decades. The trends for temperature and precipitation over 53 years were slightly positive due to intraseasonal variation, with the greatest temperature increases and precipitation declines in early spring. Regardless of broodedness, migration distance, or breeding season, 13 species hatched young earlier over time with most advancing >3 days per decade. Warm springs were associated with earlier captures of juveniles for 14 species, ranging from 1- to 3-day advancement for every 1 °C increase. This timing was less likely to be influenced by spring precipitation; nevertheless, higher rainfall was usually associated with later appearance of juveniles and breeding condition in females. Temperature and precipitation were positively related to productivity for seven and eleven species, respectively, with negative relations evident for six and eight species. We found that birds fledged young earlier with increasing spring temperatures, potentially benefiting some multibrooded species. Indeed, some extended the duration of breeding in these warm years. Yet, a few species fledged fewer juveniles in warmer and wetter seasons, indicating that expected future increases could be detrimental to locally breeding populations. Although there were no clear relationships between life history traits and breeding phenology, species-specific responses to climate found in our study provide novel insights into phenological flexibility in songbirds. Our research underscores the value of long-term monitoring studies and the importance of continuing constant effort sampling in the face of climate change.

Oroville Dam highlights infrastructure risks - McDonald, Caroline (Risk Management, 2017)

Range‐Wide Population Size of the Lesser Prairie‐Chicken: 2012, 2013, and 2014 - McDonald, Lyman; Adachi, Kristen; Rintz, Troy; Gardner, Grant; Hornsby, Fawn (WEST Inc., 2014)

Two challenges for U.S. irrigation due to climate change: Increasing irrigated area in wet states and increasing irrigation rates in dry states - McDonald, Robert I.; Girvetz, Evan H. (PLOS ONE, 2013)
Agricultural irrigation practices will likely be affected by climate change. In this paper, we use a statistical model relating observed water use by U.S. producers to the moisture deficit, and then use this statistical model to project climate changes impact on both the fraction of agricultural land irrigated and the irrigation rate (m3ha−1). Data on water withdrawals for US states (1985–2005) show that both quantities are highly positively correlated with moisture deficit (precipitation – PET). If current trends hold, climate change would increase agricultural demand for irrigation in 2090 by 4.5–21.9 million ha (B1 scenario demand: 4.5–8.7 million ha, A2 scenario demand: 9.1–21.9 million ha). Much of this new irrigated area would occur in states that currently have a wet climate and a small fraction of their agricultural land currently irrigated, posing a challenge to policymakers in states with less experience with strict regulation of agriculture water use. Moreover, most of this expansion will occur in states where current agricultural production has relatively low market value per hectare, which may make installation of irrigation uneconomical without significant changes in crops or practices by producers. Without significant increases in irrigation efficiency, climate change would also increase the average irrigation rate from 7,963 to 8,400–10,415 m3ha−1 (B1 rate: 8,400–9,145 m3ha−1, A2 rate: 9,380–10,415 m3ha−1). The irrigation rate will increase the most in states that already have dry climates and large irrigation rates, posing a challenge for water supply systems in these states. Accounting for both the increase in irrigated area and irrigation rate, total withdrawals might increase by 47.7–283.4 billion m3 (B1 withdrawal: 47.7–106.0 billion m3, A2 withdrawal: 117.4–283.4 billion m3). Increases in irrigation water-use efficiency, particularly by reducing the prevalence of surface irrigation, could eliminate the increase in total irrigation withdrawals in many states.

A scalable climate health justice assessment model - McDonald, Y. J.; Grineski, S. E.; Collins, T. W.; Kim, Y. A. (Social Science & Medicine, 2015)
This paper introduces a scalable "climate health justice" model for assessing and projecting incidence, treatment costs, and sociospatial disparities for diseases with well-documented climate change linkages. The model is designed to employ low-cost secondary data, and it is rooted in a perspective that merges normative environmental justice concerns with theoretical grounding in health inequalities. Since the model employs International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) disease codes, it is transferable to other contexts, appropriate for use across spatial scales, and suitable for comparative analyses. We demonstrate the utility of the model through analysis of 2008-2010 hospitalization discharge data at state and county levels in Texas (USA). We identified several disease categories (i.e., cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, heat-related, and respiratory) associated with climate change, and then selected corresponding ICD-9 codes with the highest hospitalization counts for further analyses. Selected diseases include ischemic heart disease, diarrhea, heat exhaustion/cramps/stroke/syncope, and asthma. Cardiovascular disease ranked first among the general categories of diseases for age-adjusted hospital admission rate (5286.37 per 100,000). In terms of specific selected diseases (per 100,000 population), asthma ranked first (517.51), followed by ischemic heart disease (195.20), diarrhea (75.35), and heat exhaustion/cramps/stroke/syncope (7.81). Charges associated with the selected diseases over the 3-year period amounted to US$5.6 billion. Blacks were disproportionately burdened by the selected diseases in comparison to non-Hispanic whites, while Hispanics were not. Spatial distributions of the selected disease rates revealed geographic zones of disproportionate risk. Based upon a down-scaled regional climate-change projection model, we estimate a >5% increase in the incidence and treatment costs of asthma attributable to climate change between the baseline and 2040-2050 in Texas. Additionally, the inequalities described here will be accentuated, with blacks facing amplified health disparities in the future. These predicted trends raise both intergenerational and distributional climate health justice concerns. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: climate justice Health

Long-term ambient ozone concentration and the incidence of asthma in nonsmoking adults: The Ahsmog study - McDonnell, William F.; Abbey, David E.; Nishino, Naomi; Lebowitz, Michael D. (Environmental Research, 1999)
Keywords: asthma ozone air pollution epidemiology.

Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming - McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D. (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise - McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Multiple interacting ecosystem drivers: Toward an encompassing hypothesis of oak forest dynamics across eastern North America - McEwan, Ryan W.; Dyer, James M.; Pederson, Neil (Ecography, 2011)

Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: A multi-model comparison - McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit; Eom, Jiyon; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Schultz, Peter; et al. (Climatic Change, 2015)
The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. The present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. The increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

Impacts of climate change on coral in the coastal and marine environments of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) - McField, Melanie (CME Caribbean Marine Climate Change Report Card 2017: Science Review 2017, 2017)

Renewable Desalination Market Analysis: Oceania, South Africa, Middle East & North Africa - McGarth, Chantel (ProDes Project, 2010)

Impacts of urbanisation on hydrological and water quality dynamics, and urban water management: A review - McGrane, Scott J. (Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2016)
As urban space continues to expand to accommodate a growing global population, there remains a real need to quantify and qualify the impacts of urban space on natural processes. The expansion of global urban areas has resulted in marked alterations to natural processes, environmental quality and natural resource consumption. The urban landscape influences infiltration and evapotranspiration, complicating our capacity to quantify their dynamics across a heterogeneous landscape at contrasting scales. Impervious surfaces exacerbate runoff processes, whereas runoff from pervious areas remains uncertain owing to variable infiltration dynamics. Increasingly, the link between the natural hydrological cycle and engineered water cycle has been made, realising the contributions from leaky infrastructure to recharge and runoff rates. Urban landscapes are host to a suite of contaminants that impact on water quality, where novel contaminants continue to pose new challenges to monitoring and treatment regimes. This review seeks to assess the major advances and remaining challenges that remain within the growing field of urban hydrology.Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor E. Rozos
Keywords: urban urbanization Water

Hypsometric control on glacier mass balance sensitivity in Alaska and northwest Canada - McGrath, D.; Sass, L.; O'Neel, S.; Arendt, A.; Kienholz, C. (Earth's Future, 2017)
Keywords: glaciers hypsometry modelling mass balance 0720 Glaciers 0762 Mass balance 0798 Modeling 0772 Distribution

Regional disparities in the CO2 fertilization effect and implications for crop yields - McGrath, Justin M; Lobell, David B (Environmental Research Letters, 2013)

An updated assessment of trends and variability in total and extreme rainfall in the western Pacific - McGree, S.; Whan, K.; Jones, D.; Alexander, L. V.; Imielska, A.; Diamond, H.; Ene, E.; Finaulahi, S.; Inape, K.; Jacklick, L.; Kumar, R.; Laurent, V.; et al. (International Journal of Climatology, 2014)
Rainfall records for 23 countries and territories in the western Pacific have been collated for the purpose of examining trends in total and extreme rainfall since 1951. For some countries this is the first time that their data have been included in this type of analysis and for others the number of stations examined is more than twice that available in the current literature. Station trends in annual total and extreme rainfall for 1961–2011 are spatially heterogeneous and largely not statistically significant. This differs with the results of earlier studies that show spatially coherent trends that tended to reverse in the vicinity of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). We infer that the difference is due to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation switching to a negative phase from about 1999, largely reversing earlier rainfall changes. Trend analyses for 1981–2011 show wetter conditions in the West Pacific Monsoon (WPM) region and southwest of the mean SPCZ position. In the tropical North Pacific it has become wetter west of 160°E with the Intertropical Convergence Zone/WPM expanding northwards west of 140°E. Northeast of the SPCZ and in the central tropical Pacific east of about 160°E it has become drier. Our findings for the South Pacific subtropics are consistent with broader trends seen in parts of southern and eastern Australia towards reduced rainfall. The relationship between total and extreme rainfall and Pacific basin sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been investigated with a focus on the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We substantiate a strong relationship between ENSO and total rainfall and establish similar relationships for the threshold extreme indices. The percentile-based and absolute extreme indices are influenced by ENSO to a lesser extent and in some cases the influence is marginal. Undoubtedly, larger-scale SST variability is not the only influence on these indices.
Keywords: Pacific Islands ETCCDI SPCZ extreme climate indices IPO

Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape - McGuire, Jenny L.; Lawler, Joshua J.; McRae, Brad H.; Nuñez, Tristan A.; Theobald, David M. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
The contiguous United States contains a disconnected patchwork of natural lands. This fragmentation by human activities limits species’ ability to track suitable climates as they rapidly shift. However, most models that project species movement needs have not examined where fragmentation will limit those movements. Here, we quantify climate connectivity, the capacity of landscape configuration to allow species movement in the face of dynamically shifting climate. Using this metric, we assess to what extent habitat fragmentation will limit species movements in response to climate change. We then evaluate how creating corridors to promote climate connectivity could potentially mitigate these restrictions, and we assess where strategies to increase connectivity will be most beneficial. By analyzing fragmentation patterns across the contiguous United States, we demonstrate that only 41% of natural land area retains enough connectivity to allow plants and animals to maintain climatic parity as the climate warms. In the eastern United States, less than 2% of natural area is sufficiently connected. Introducing corridors to facilitate movement through human-dominated regions increases the percentage of climatically connected natural area to 65%, with the most impactful gains in low-elevation regions, particularly in the southeastern United States. These climate connectivity analyses allow ecologists and conservation practitioners to determine the most effective regions for increasing connectivity. More importantly, our findings demonstrate that increasing climate connectivity is critical for allowing species to track rapidly changing climates, reconfiguring habitats to promote access to suitable climates.

Water-Level and Recoverable Water in Storage Changes, High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 2015 and 2013–15 - McGuire, Virginia L. (U. S. Geological Survey, 2017)

Acute salt marsh dieback in the Mississippi River deltaic plain: A drought-induced phenomenon? - McKee, Karen L.; Mendelssohn, Irving A.; D. Materne, Michael (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2004)
Keywords: Climate change disturbance Louisiana pyrite salinity sea-level soil acidification Spartina USA wetland

Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors - McKelvey, K.S.; Copeland, J.P.; Schwartz, M.K.; Littell, J.S.; Aubry, K.B.; Squires, J.R.; Parks, S.A.; Elsner, M.M.; Mauger, G.S. (Ecological Applications, 2011)

Change and evolution in the plant hardiness zones of Canada - McKenney, Daniel W.; Pedlar, John H.; Lawrence, Kevin; Papadopol, Pia; Campbell, Kathy; Hutchinson, Michael F. (BioScience, 2014)
We present 50-year updates for two plant hardiness models (maps), developed originally by Agriculture Canada and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), that are widely used for plant selection decisions in Canada. The updated maps show clear northward shifts in hardiness zones across western Canada. Shifts are less dramatic in southeastern Canada, with modest increases in zone values associated with the Canadian map but modest declines associated with the USDA approach. Species-specific climate envelope models are an alternative to generalized hardiness zones. We generated climate envelopes for 62 northern tree species over the same 50-year interval and found an average northward shift of 57 kilometers. These changes signal an increase in the productivity and diversity of plants that can be grown in Canada. However, late spring frosts and other factors discussed herein may limit the extent to which this potential is realized.
10.1093/biosci/biu016

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA? - McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy S. (Ecological Applications, 2017)
Keywords: climate change ecosections lagged response negative feedback nonstationarity water-balance deficit

Ch. 15: Global warming and stress complexes in forests of western North America - McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D.L.; Littell, J.J. (Developments in Environmental Sciences, 2008)

Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change - McKenzie, Donald; Shankar, Uma; Keane, Robert E.; Stavros, E. Natasha; Heilman, Warren E.; Fox, Douglas G.; Riebau, Allen C. (Earth's Future, 2014)
Keywords: climate change smoke transport feedbacks coupled models 0439 Ecosystems: structure and dynamics 1630 Impacts of global change

Regional temperature trends in Hawaiʻi: A century of change, 1916–2015 - McKenzie, Marie M. (Department of Geography, 2016)

Climatic regulation of the neurotoxin domoic acid - McKibben, S. Morgaine; Peterson, William; Wood, A. Michelle; Trainer, Vera L.; Hunter, Matthew; White, Angelicque E. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Domoic acid is a potent neurotoxin produced by certain marine microalgae that can accumulate in the foodweb, posing a health threat to human seafood consumers and wildlife in coastal regions worldwide. Evidence of climatic regulation of domoic acid in shellfish over the past 20 y in the Northern California Current regime is shown. The timing of elevated domoic acid is strongly related to warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Oceanic Niño Index, an indicator of El Niño events. Ocean conditions in the northeast Pacific that are associated with warm phases of these indices, including changes in prevailing currents and advection of anomalously warm water masses onto the continental shelf, are hypothesized to contribute to increases in this toxin. We present an applied domoic acid risk assessment model for the US West Coast based on combined climatic and local variables. Evidence of regional- to basin-scale controls on domoic acid has not previously been presented. Our findings have implications in coastal zones worldwide that are affected by this toxin and are particularly relevant given the increased frequency of anomalously warm ocean conditions.

Asynchronous changes in phenology of migrating Broad‐tailed Hummingbirds and their early‐season nectar resources - McKinney, Amy M.; CaraDonna, Paul J.; Inouye, David W.; Barr, Billy; Bertelsen, C. David; Waser, Nickolas M. (Ecology, 2012)
Phenological advancements driven by climate change are especially pronounced at higher latitudes, so that migrants from lower latitudes may increasingly arrive at breeding grounds after the appearance of seasonal resources. To explore this possibility, we compared dates of first arrival of Broad‐tailed Hummingbirds (Selasphorus platycercus) to dates of flowering of plants they visit for nectar. Near the southern limit of the breeding range, neither hummingbird arrival nor first flowering dates have changed significantly over the past few decades. At a nearby migration stopover site, first flowering of a major food plant has advanced, but peak flowering has not. Near the northern limit of the breeding range, first and peak flowering of early‐season food plants have shifted to earlier dates, resulting in a shorter interval between appearance of first hummingbirds and first flowers. If phenological shifts continue at current rates, hummingbirds will eventually arrive at northern breeding grounds after flowering begins, which could reduce their nesting success. These results support the prediction that migratory species may experience the greatest phenological mismatches at the poleward limits of their migration. A novel hypothesis based on these results posits that the poleward limit for some species may contract toward lower latitudes under continued warming.

Drought and Agriculture: A Study by the Washington State Department of Agriculture - McLain, Kelly; Hancock, Jaclyn; Drennan, Margaret (Washington State Academy of Sciences, 2017)

Centennial-scale reductions in nitrogen availability in temperate forests of the United States - McLauchlan, K. K.; Gerhart, L. M.; Battles, J. J.; Craine, J. M.; Elmore, A. J.; Higuera, P. E.; Mack, M. C.; McNeil, B. E.; Nelson, D. M.; Pederson, N.; Perakis, S. S. (Scientific Reports, 2017)
Forests cover 30% of the terrestrial Earth surface and are a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Humans have doubled the amount of global reactive nitrogen (N), increasing deposition of N onto forests worldwide. However, other global changes—especially climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations—are increasing demand for N, the element limiting primary productivity in temperate forests, which could be reducing N availability. To determine the long-term, integrated effects of global changes on forest N cycling, we measured stable N isotopes in wood, a proxy for N supply relative to demand, on large spatial and temporal scales across the continental U.S.A. Here, we show that forest N availability has generally declined across much of the U.S. since at least 1850 C.E. with cool, wet forests demonstrating the greatest declines. Across sites, recent trajectories of N availability were independent of recent atmospheric N deposition rates, implying a minor role for modern N deposition on the trajectory of N status of North American forests. Our results demonstrate that current trends of global changes are likely to be consistent with forest oligotrophication into the foreseeable future, further constraining forest C fixation and potentially storage.

Outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus gastroenteritis associated with Alaskan oysters - McLaughlin, J. B.; DePaola, A.; Bopp, C. A.; Martinek, K. A.; Napolilli, N. P.; Allison, C. G.; Murray, S. L.; Thompson, E. C.; Bird, M. M.; Middaugh, J. P. (The New England Journal of Medicine, 2005)

Characterization of future Caribbean rainfall and temperature extremes across rainfall zones - McLean, Natalie Melissa; Stephenson, Tannecia Sydia; Taylor, Michael Alexander; Campbell, Jayaka Danaco (Advances in Meteorology, 2015)

A blueprint for blue carbon: Toward an improved understanding of the role of vegetated coastal habitats in sequestering CO2 - Mcleod, Elizabeth; Chmura, Gail L.; Bouillon, Steven; Salm, Rodney; Björk, Mats; Duarte, Carlos M.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Schlesinger, William H.; Silliman, Brian R. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2011)

A proposed method for generating high resolution current and future climate data for Passivhaus design - McLeod, Robert S.; Hopfe, Christina J.; Rezgui, Yacine (Energy and Buildings, 2012)
Keywords: Climate change scenarios Probabilistic climate data Passivhaus PHPP Urban heat islands

Historic May rains eliminate drought - McManus, Gary (The OCS Mesonet Ticker, 2015)

Globalization, climate change, and human health - McMichael, A. J. (The New England Journal of Medicine, 2013)
McMichael, Anthony J United States N Engl J Med. 2013 Apr 4;368(14):1335-43. doi: 10.1056/NEJMra1109341.
Keywords: Climate Change Environment Health Humans Internationality Population Growth Urbanization

The future is behind us: Traditional ecological knowledge and resilience over time on Hawai‘i Island - McMillen, Heather; Ticktin, Tamara; Springer, Hannah Kihalani (Regional Environmental Change, 2017)
Local and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) systems are thought to be particularly valuable for fostering adaptation and resilience to environmental and climate change. This paper investigates the role of TEK in adaptation to social–ecological change at the community level. It is unique because it takes a longitudinal perspective and draws on historical and contemporary data. We focus on a case study from Hawai‘i where TEK, cultural identity, and their relationships to environmental stewardship are locally seen as the basis for social resilience. We describe how coping strategies and indicators of social resilience have changed over time; the role of TEK in resilience; and the implications for climate change adaptation. Our results show the relative contributions of some strategies to cope with social–ecological change have decreased (e.g., forecasting, storage, and mobility), while others have maintained but adapted (e.g., livelihood diversification, knowledge transmission and storage, communal pooling, and cultural identity), underscoring the importance of considering multiple strategies together to promote community resilience. The article argues that understanding how people responded in the past can suggest relevant and culturally appropriate ways—through specific language, values, reference points, and indicators expressed in narratives, proverbs, and songs—of situating climate change and framing adaptation planning. This research also shows that TEK is vital for adaptation to environmental change broadly and climate change in particular, for subsistence-based, indigenous, rural communities, as well as place-based communities living in mixed economies. Thus, it is relevant for the larger Pacific Islands region and other areas that represent a continuum from rural-to-urban and traditional-to-global economies and lifeways.

Lights Out? Storm Surge, Blackouts, and How Clean Energy Can Help - McNamara, Julie; Clemmer, Steven; Dahl, Kristina; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2015)

Taking stock of community-based climate-change adaptation projects in the Pacific: Climate change adaptation in the Pacific - McNamara, Karen Elizabeth (Asia Pacific Viewpoint, 2013)

Communicating climate change for adaptation in rural communities: A Pacific study - McNaught, Rebecca; Warrick, Olivia; Cooper, Andrew (Regional Environmental Change, 2014)

Sustainable climate change adaptation in Indian Country - McNeeley, Shannon M. (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2017)
Much of the academic literature and policy discussions about sustainable development and climate change adaptation focus on poor and developing nations, yet many tribal communities inside the United States include marginalized peoples and developing nations who face structural barriers to effectively adapt to climate change. There is a need to critically examine diverse climate change risks for indigenous peoples in the United States and the many structural barriers that limit their ability to adapt to climate change. This paper uses a sustainable climate adaptation framework to outline the context and the relationships of power and authority, along with different ways of knowing and meaning, to illustrate the underpinnings of some tribes’ barriers to sustainable climate adaptation. The background of those structural barriers for tribes is traced, and then the case of water rights and management at the Wind River Reservation in Wyoming is used to illustrate the interplay of policy, culture, climate, justice, and limits to adaptation. Included is a discussion about how the rulings of the Big Horn general stream adjudication have hindered tribal climate change adaptation by limiting the quantity of tribal reserved water rights, tying those rights to the sole purposes of agriculture, which undermines social and cultural connections to the land and water, and failing to recognizing tribal rights to groundwater. Future climate projections suggest increasing temperatures, and changes in the amount and timing of snowpack, along with receding glaciers, all of which impact water availability downstream. Therefore, building capacity to take control of land and water resources and preparing for climate change and drought at Wind River Reservation is of critical importance.
Keywords: Social Science,North America,Policy,Societal impacts

Wind River Reservation: Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI) Report. A Report for the Wind River Indian Reservation’s Vulnerability to the Impacts of Drought and the Development of Decision Tools to Support Drought Preparedness Project - McNeeley, Shannon M.; Beeton, Tyler A. (North Central Climate Science Center, 2017)

Drought risk and adaptation in the interior United States: Understanding the importance of local context for resource management in times of drought - McNeeley, Shannon M.; Beeton, Tyler A.; Ojima, Dennis S. (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2016)
Drought is a natural part of the historical climate variability in the northern Rocky Mountains and high plains region of the United States. However, recent drought impacts and climate change projections have increased the need for a systematized way to document and understand drought in a manner that is meaningful to public land and resource managers. The purpose of this exploratory study was to characterize the ways in which some federal and tribal natural resource managers experienced and dealt with drought on lands managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and tribes in two case site examples (northwest Colorado and southwest South Dakota) that have experienced high drought exposure in the last two decades. The authors employed a social–ecological system framework, whereby key informant interviews and local and regional drought indicator data were used characterize the social and ecological factors that contribute to drought vulnerability and the ways in which drought onset, persistence, severity, and recovery impact management. Results indicated that local differences in the timing, decisions, and specific management targets defined within the local social–ecological natural resource contexts are critical to understanding drought impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. These findings suggest that manager-defined social–ecological contexts are critically important to understand how drought is experienced across the landscape and the indices that are needed to inform adaptation and response strategies.
Keywords: Geographic location/entity,North America,Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Climatology,Applications,Ecosystem effects,Local effects,Regional effects,Societal impacts

Anatomy of an interrupted irrigation season: Micro-drought at the Wind River Indian Reservation - McNeeley, Shannon M.; Dewes, Candida F.; Stiles, Crystal J.; Beeton, Tyler A.; Rangwala, Imtiaz; Hobbins, Michael T.; Knutson, Cody L. (Climate Risk Management, 2018)
Keywords: Drought Climate vulnerability Drought preparedness Indigenous adaptation Co-production

The cultural theory of risk for climate change adaptation - McNeeley, Shannon M.; Lazrus, Heather (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2014)
The way in which people perceive climate change risk is informed by their social interactions and cultural worldviews comprising fundamental beliefs about society and nature. Therefore, perceptions of climate change risk and vulnerability along with people’s “myths of nature”—that is, how groups of people conceptualize the way nature functions—influence the feasibility and acceptability of climate adaptation planning, policy making, and implementation. This study presents analyses of cultural worldviews that broaden the current treatments of culture and climate change mitigation and adaptation decision making in communities. The authors use insights from community-based climate research and engage the Cultural Theory of Risk conceptual framework to situate community understandings of, and responses to, climate impacts. This study looks at how the issue of climate change manifests socially in four cases in the United States and Tuvalu and how ideas about climate change are produced by the institutional cultural contexts across scales from the local to the global. This approach helps us identify local and regional priorities and support the development of new relationships for adaptation research and planning by helping to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation, assist improved communication through framing/reframing climate issues based on shared understandings and collective learning, and help move from conflict to cooperation through better negotiation of diverse worldviews.
Keywords: North America,Pacific Ocean,Planning,Policy,Risk assessment,Societal impacts

Anatomy of a closing window: Vulnerability to changing seasonality in Interior Alaska - McNeeley, Shannon M.; Shulski, Martha D. (Global Environmental Change, 2011)
Keywords: Human health

Water's Edge: The Crisis of Rising Sea Levels - McNeill, Ryan; Nelson, Deborah J.; Wilson, Duff (Thomson Reuters, 2014)

Delivering climate services: Organizational strategies and approaches for producing useful climate-science information - McNie, Elizabeth C. (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2012)

Southeast Regional Climate Hub Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies - McNulty, Steve; Weiner, Sarah; Moore Myers, Jennifer; Farahani, Hamid; Fouladbash, Lisa; Marshall, David; Steele, Rachel F. (USDA Agricultural Research Service, 2015)

Northwest Tribes: Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change - McNutt, Deborah (Evergreen State College, Northwest Indian Applied Research Institute, 2009)

Community-based research as a mechanism to reduce environmental health disparities in American Indian and Alaska Native communities - McOliver, Cynthia A.; Camper, Anne K.; Doyle, John T.; Eggers, Margaret J.; Ford, Tim E.; Lila, Mary Ann; Berner, James; Campbell, Larry; Donatuto, Jamie (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2015)

A TOGA retrospective - McPhaden, Michael J.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Anderson, David L.T. (Oceanography, 2010)

Statewide monitoring of the mesoscale environment: A technical update on the Oklahoma Mesonet - McPherson, Renee A.; Fiebrich, Christopher A.; Crawford, Kenneth C.; Kilby, James R.; Grimsley, David L.; Martinez, Janet E.; Basara, Jeffrey B.; Illston, Bradley G.; Morris, Dale A.; Kloesel, Kevin A.; Melvin, Andrea D.; Shrivastava, Himanshu; et al. (Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2007)
Established as a multipurpose network, the Oklahoma Mesonet operates more than 110 surface observing stations that send data every 5 min to an operations center for data quality assurance, product generation, and dissemination. Quality-assured data are available within 5 min of the observation time. Since 1994, the Oklahoma Mesonet has collected 3.5 billion weather and soil observations and produced millions of decision-making products for its customers.
Keywords: Quality assurance/control,Surface observations,Automatic weather station,Instrumentation,Mesoscale processes

Is there a decline in marine phytoplankton? - McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail; Reid, Philip C.; Edwards, Martin; Burkill, Peter H.; Castellani, Claudia; Batten, Sonia; Gieskes, Winfried; Beare, Doug; Bidigare, Robert R.; Head, Erica; Johnson, Rod; Kahru, Mati; et al. (Nature, 2011)

Natural Wild Rice in Minnesota - MDNR (Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 2008)

Moving toward the deliberate coproduction of climate science knowledge - Meadow, Alison M.; Ferguson, Daniel B.; Guido, Zack; Horangic, Alexandra; Owen, Gigi; Wall, Tamara (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2015)
Coproduction of knowledge is believed to be an effective way to produce usable climate science knowledge through a process of collaboration between scientists and decision makers. While the general principles of coproduction—establishing long-term relationships between scientists and stakeholders, ensuring two-way communication between both groups, and keeping the focus on the production of usable science—are well understood, the mechanisms for achieving those goals have been discussed less. It is proposed here that a more deliberate approach to building the relationships and communication channels between scientists and stakeholders will yield better outcomes. The authors present five approaches to collaborative research that can be used to structure a coproduction process that each suit different types of research or management questions, decision-making contexts, and resources and skills available to contribute to the process of engagement. By using established collaborative research approaches scientists can be more effective in learning from stakeholders, can be more confident when engaging with stakeholders because there are guideposts to follow, and can assess both the process and outcomes of collaborative projects, which will help the whole community of stakeholder-engaged climate-scientists learn about coproduction of knowledge.
Keywords: Communications/decision making,Policy,Societal impacts

Method for evaluating implications of climate change for design and performance of flexible pavements - Meagher, William; Daniel, Jo; Jacobs, Jennifer; Linder, Ernst (Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2012)
A method to assess the impacts of forecasted climate change on pavement deterioration is presented. Traditional methods of pavement design use historic climate data and assume that climate is stationary with time. Climate change challenges this assumption of stationarity (i.e., natural driving forces of engineering have a variability described by a time-invariant probability density function). Therefore, the use of historic climate data is insufficient for the prediction of climate conditions. The focus is on the preparation and the use of climate model data sets as inputs to the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) model to simulate flexible pavement performance and deterioration over time. The method is illustrated with a case study that uses future climate model temperature data from three North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program scenarios at four sites across New England. Pavement distress predicted with future temperature scenarios is compared with that from MEPDG temperature data. Application of the method demonstrates the importance of matching the overlapping periods before using climate forecast output in the MEPDG. Although the simulated impact of future temperature changes on pavement performance was negligible for alligator cracking at the four study sites, asphalt concrete rutting differences were great enough to warrant additional consideration and to suggest that climate change and variability in future climate scenarios could affect pavement design and evaluation. The proposed method can be used to evaluate the impact of other climate variables alone or in combination. The method also can readily use new climate model output and be adapted for new downscaling methods.

Sensitivity of satellite-derived tropospheric temperature trends to the diurnal cycle adjustment - Mears, Carl A.; Wentz, Frank J. (Journal of Climate, 2016)
Temperature sounding microwave radiometers flown on polar-orbiting weather satellites provide a long-term, global-scale record of upper-atmosphere temperatures, beginning in late 1978 and continuing to the present. The focus of this paper is the midtropospheric measurements made by the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 2 and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) channel 5. Previous versions of the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) dataset have used a diurnal climatology derived from general circulation model output to remove the effects of drifting local measurement time. This paper presents evidence that this previous method is not sufficiently accurate and presents several alternative methods to optimize these adjustments using information from the satellite measurements themselves. These are used to construct a number of candidate climate data records using measurements from 15 MSU and AMSU satellites. The new methods result in improved agreement between measurements made by different satellites at the same time. A method is chosen based on an optimized second harmonic adjustment to produce a new version of the RSS dataset, version 4.0. The new dataset shows substantially increased global-scale warming relative to the previous version of the dataset, particularly after 1998. The new dataset shows more warming than most other midtropospheric data records constructed from the same set of satellites. It is also shown that the new dataset is consistent with long-term changes in total column water vapor over the tropical oceans, lending support to its long-term accuracy.
Keywords: Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena,Troposphere,Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Temperature,Observational techniques and algorithms,Climate records,Microwave observations,Satellite observations

Pacific Arctic Marine Fishes - Mecklenburg, C. W.; Mecklenburg, A. T.; Sheiko, Boris A.; Steinke, D. (Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), 2016)

Fishes of Alaska - Mecklenburg, Catherine W.; Mecklenburg, T. Anthony; Thorsteinson, Lyman K. (American Fisheries Society, 2002)

Estimated effects of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations on protein intake and the risk of protein deficiency by country and region - Medek, Danielle E.; Schwartz, Joel; Myers, Samuel S. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2017)

Economic impacts of climate-related changes to California agriculture - Medellín-Azuara, J.; Howitt, R.E.; MacEwan, D.J.; Lund, J.R. (Climatic Change, 2012)

Economic Analysis of the 2016 California Drought on Agriculture - Medellín-Azuara, Josué; MacEwan, Duncan; Howitt, Richard E.; Sumner, Daniel A.; Lund, Jay R. (University of California-Davis, Center for Watershed Sciences, 2016)

Effect of climate change on Aspergillus flavus and aflatoxin B1 production - Medina, Angel; Rodriguez, Alicia; Magan, Naresh (Frontiers in Microbiology, 2014)
Ch6

Extreme temperatures and mortality: Assessing effect modification by personal characteristics and specific cause of death in a multi-city case-only analysis - Medina-Ramón, Mercedes; Zanobetti, Antonella; Cavanagh, David Paul; Schwartz, Joel (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2006)
BACKGROUND: Extremes of temperature are associated with short-term increases in daily mortality. OBJECTIVES: We set out to identify subpopulations and mortality causes with increased susceptibility to temperature extremes. METHODS: We conducted a case-only analysis using daily mortality and hourly weather data from 50 U.S. cities for the period 1989–2000, covering a total of 7,789,655 deaths. We used distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperature in each city to define extremely hot days (≥ 99th percentile) and extremely cold days (≤ 1st percentile), respectively. For each (hypothesized) effect modifier, a city-specific logistic regression model was fitted and an overall estimate calculated in a subsequent meta-analysis. RESULTS: Older subjects [odds ratio (OR) = 1.020; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.005–1.034], diabetics (OR = 1.035; 95% CI, 1.010–1.062), blacks (OR = 1.037; 95% CI, 1.016–1.059), and those dying outside a hospital (OR = 1.066; 95% CI, 1.036–1.098) were more susceptible to extreme heat, with some differences observed between those dying from a cardiovascular disease and other decedents. Cardiovascular deaths (OR = 1.053; 95% CI, 1.036–1.070), and especially cardiac arrest deaths (OR =1.137; 95% CI, 1.051–1.230), showed a greater relative increase on extremely cold days, whereas the increase in heat-related mortality was marginally higher for those with coexisting atrial fibrillation (OR = 1.059; 95% CI, 0.996–1.125). CONCLUSIONS: In this study we identified several subpopulations and mortality causes particularly susceptible to temperature extremes. This knowledge may contribute to establishing health programs that would better protect the vulnerable.
ehp0114-001331[PII] 16966084[pmid] Environ Health Perspect

Vulnerability of freshwater resources to climate change in the tropical Pacific region - Meehl, G. A. (Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific: Manila, Philippines, 15–19 January 1996, 1996)

Mechanisms contributing to the warming hole and the consequent US east–west differential of heat extremes - Meehl, G.A.; Arblaster, J.M.; Branstator, G. (Journal of Climate, 2012)

THE WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research - Meehl, Gerald A.; Covey, Curt; Taylor, Karl E.; Delworth, Thomas; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Latif, Mojib; McAvaney, Bryant; Mitchell, John F. B. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2007)
A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding our understanding of how the climate system currently works, and how it may change in the future.

US daily temperature records past, present, and future - Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Adams-Smith, Dennis (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Observed temperature extremes over the continental United States can be represented by the ratio of daily record high temperatures to daily record low minimum temperatures, and this ratio has increased to a value of about 2 to 1, averaged over the first decade of the 21st century, albeit with large interannual variability. Two different versions of a global coupled climate model (CCSM4), as well as 23 other coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, show larger values of this ratio than observations, mainly as a result of greater numbers of record highs since the 1980s compared with observations. This is partly because of the “warm 1930s” in the observations, which made it more difficult to set record highs later in the century, and partly because of a trend toward less rainfall and reduced evapotranspiration in the model versions compared with observations. We compute future projections of this ratio on the basis of its estimated dependence on mean temperature increase, which we find robustly at play in both observations and simulations. The use of this relation also has the advantage of removing dependence of a projection on a specific scenario. An empirical projection of the ratio of record highs to record lows is obtained from the nonlinear relationship in observations from 1930 to 2015, thus correcting downward the likely biased future projections of the model. For example, for a 3 °C warming in US temperatures, the ratio of record highs to lows is projected to be ∼15 ± 8 compared to the present average ratio of just over 2.

A Synthesis of Climate Adaptation Planning Needs in Alaska Native Communities - Meeker, Danielle; Kettle, Nathan (Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, 2017)

Spatial planning for multifunctional green infrastructure: Growing resilience in Detroit - Meerow, Sara; Newell, Joshua P. (Landscape and Urban Planning, 2017)
Keywords: Green infrastructure Ecosystem services Resilience Detroit Spatial planning Urban greening

Defining urban resilience: A review - Meerow, Sara; Newell, Joshua P.; Stults, Melissa (Landscape and Urban Planning, 2016)
Fostering resilience in the face of environmental, socioeconomic, and political uncertainty and risk has captured the attention of academics and decision makers across disciplines, sectors, and scales. Resilience has become an important goal for cities, particularly in the face of climate change. Urban areas house the majority of the world's population, and, in addition to functioning as nodes of resource consumption and as sites for innovation, have become laboratories for resilience, both in theory and in practice. This paper reviews the scholarly literature on urban resilience and concludes that the term has not been well defined. Existing definitions are inconsistent and underdeveloped with respect to incorporation of crucial concepts found in both resilience theory and urban theory. Based on this literature review, and aided by bibliometric analysis, the paper identifies six conceptual tensions fundamental to urban resilience: (1) definition of ‘urban’; (2) understanding of system equilibrium; (3) positive vs. neutral (or negative) conceptualizations of resilience; (4) mechanisms for system change; (5) adaptation versus general adaptability; and (6) timescale of action. To advance this burgeoning field, more conceptual clarity is needed. This paper, therefore, proposes a new definition of urban resilience. This definition takes explicit positions on these tensions, but remains inclusive and flexible enough to enable uptake by, and collaboration among, varying disciplines. The paper concludes with a discussion of how the definition might serve as a boundary object, with the acknowledgement that applying resilience in different contexts requires answering: Resilience for whom and to what? When? Where? And why?
Keywords: Adaptation Urban Resilience

Compounding impacts of human-induced water stress and climate change on water availability - Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Stewardson, Michael J.; Peel, Murray C.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Wada, Yoshihide; Ravalico, Jakin K. (Scientific Reports, 2017)
The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

Hypoxia in future climates: A model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea - Meier, H. E. M.; Andersson, H. C.; Eilola, K.; Gustafsson, B. G.; Kuznetsov, I.; Müller‐Karulis, B.; Neumann, T.; Savchuk, O. P. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2011)
Using an ensemble of coupled physical‐biogeochemical models driven with regionalized data from global climate simulations we are able to quantify the influence of changing climate upon oxygen conditions in one of the numerous coastal seas (the Baltic Sea) that suffers worldwide from eutrophication and from expanding hypoxic zones. Applying various nutrient load scenarios we show that under the impact of warming climate hypoxic and anoxic areas will very likely increase or at best only slightly decrease (in case of optimistic nutrient load reductions) compared to present conditions, regardless of the used global model and climate scenario. The projected decreased oxygen concentrations are caused by (1) enlarged nutrient loads due to increased runoff, (2) reduced oxygen flux from the atmosphere to the ocean due to increased temperature, and (3) intensified internal nutrient cycling. In future climate a similar expansion of hypoxia as projected for the Baltic Sea can be expected also for other coastal oceans worldwide.

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States - Meixner, Thomas; Manning, Andrew H.; Stonestrom, David A.; Allen, Diana M.; Ajami, Hoori; Blasch, Kyle W.; Brookfield, Andrea E.; Castro, Christopher L.; Clark, Jordan F.; Gochis, David J.; Flint, Alan L.; Neff, Kirstin L.; et al. (Journal of Hydrology, 2016)
Keywords: Groundwater recharge Recharge mechanisms Climate change Western United States

Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin - Meko, D.M.; Woodhouse, C.A.; Baisan, C.A.; Knight, T.; Lukas, J.J.; Hughes, M.K.; Salzer, M.W. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2007)

Estimates of Post Hurricane Maria Exodus From Puerto Rico - Meléndez, Edwin; Hinojosa, Jennifer (CUNY Hunter College, Center for Puerto Rican Studies (Centro), 2017)

Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes - Melia, N.; Haines, K.; Hawkins, E. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: Arctic shipping sea ice climate projections 1630 Impacts of global change 1621 Cryospheric change 1616 Climate variability 9315 Arctic region

Long-term pattern and magnitude of soil carbon feedback to the climate system in a warming world - Melillo, J. M.; Frey, S. D.; DeAngelis, K. M.; Werner, W. J.; Bernard, M. J.; Bowles, F. P.; Pold, G.; Knorr, M. A.; Grandy, A. S. (Science, 2017)
It is still not clear how global warming will affect the global carbon cycle, either in terms of the magnitude of the effect or even its sign. Help in answering that question will come from long-term field-based experiments designed to explore carbon cycle-climate feedbacks in an ecosystem context. Melillo et al. performed a 26-year soil-warming experiment in a mid-latitude hardwood forest (see the Perspective by Metcalfe). Warming has resulted in a complex pattern of net carbon loss from the soil. These results support projections of a long-term, positive carbon feedback from similar ecosystems as the world warms.Science, this issue p. 101; See also p. 41In a 26-year soil warming experiment in a mid-latitude hardwood forest, we documented changes in soil carbon cycling to investigate the potential consequences for the climate system. We found that soil warming results in a four-phase pattern of soil organic matter decay and carbon dioxide fluxes to the atmosphere, with phases of substantial soil carbon loss alternating with phases of no detectable loss. Several factors combine to affect the timing, magnitude, and thermal acclimation of soil carbon loss. These include depletion of microbially accessible carbon pools, reductions in microbial biomass, a shift in microbial carbon use efficiency, and changes in microbial community composition. Our results support projections of a long-term, self-reinforcing carbon feedback from mid-latitude forests to the climate system as the world warms.

Indirect emissions from biofuels: How important? - Melillo, J.M.; Reilly, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Gurgel, A.C.; Cronin, T.W.; Paltsev, S.; Felzer, B.S.; Wang, X.; Sokolov, A.P.; Schlosser, C.A. (Science, 2009)

Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment - Melillo, Jerry M.; Richmond, T.C.; Yohe, Gary W. (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2014)

Highlights of Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment - Melillo, Jerry M.; Richmond, T.C.; Yohe, Gary W. (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2014)

Forecasting marine invasions under climate change: Biotic interactions and demographic processes matter - Mellin, C.; Lurgi, M.; Matthews, S.; MacNeil, M. A.; Caley, M. J.; Bax, N.; Przeslawski, R.; Fordham, D. A. (Biological Conservation, 2016)
Keywords: Alien species Climate change Crown-of-thorns seastar Range shift Exotic species Marine biodiversity Metapopulation model Non-indigenous species Biotic interactions

Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases - Mellor, Jonathan E.; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; et al. (Science of the Total Environment, 2016)
Keywords: Climate change Water Health Diarrhea Complex systems Coupled systems

Fallowed Area Mapping For Drought Impact Reporting: 2015 Assessment of Conditions in the California Central Valley - Melton, Forrest; Rosevelt, Carolyn; Guzman, Alberta; Johnson, Lee; Zaragoza, Isabel; Verdin, James; Thenkabail, Prasad; Wallace, Cynthia; Mueller, Rick; Willis, Patrick; Jones, Jeanine (NASA Ames Research Center, 2015)

Designing for the next century's weather - Melton, Paula (Environmental Building News, 2013)
Keywords: added by ERG

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation - Melvin, April M.; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E.; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S.; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Marchenko, Sergey S. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Keywords: adaptation Alaska climate change damages infrastructure

Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska's changing climate. - Melvin, A. M.; Murray, J.; Boehlert, B.; Martinich, J. A.; Rennels, L.; Rupp, T. S. (Climatic Change, 2017)

2015 National Prescribed Fire Use Survey Report - Melvin, Mark A. (Coalition of Prescribed Fire Councils, 2015)

The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy - Mendelsohn, Robert; Neumann, James (Cambridge University Press, 2004)

Assessing local climate action plans for public health co-benefits in environmental justice communities - Mendez, Michael Anthony (Local Environment, 2015)

Extreme heat events in San Juan Puerto Rico: Trends and variability of unusual hot weather and its possible effects on ecology and society - Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Martínez-Sánchez, Odalys; Méndez-Tejeda, Rafael; Rodríguez, Ernesto; Morales, Ernesto; Cortijo, Natalie Schmitt (Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting, 2015)

A heat vulnerability index to improve urban public health management in San Juan, Puerto Rico - Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Muller-Karger, Frank E.; Otis, Daniel; McCarthy, Matthew J.; Rodríguez, Ernesto (International Journal of Biometeorology, 2017)
Increased frequency and length of high heat episodes are leading to more cardiovascular issues and asthmatic responses among the population of San Juan, the capital of the island of Puerto Rico, USA. An urban heat island effect, which leads to foci of higher temperatures in some urban areas, can raise heat-related mortality. The objective of this research is to map the risk of high temperature in particular locations by creating heat maps of the city of San Juan. The heat vulnerability index (HVI) maps were developed using images collected by satellite-based remote sensing combined with census data. Land surface temperature was assessed using images from the Thermal Infrared Sensor flown on Landsat 8. Social determinants (e.g., age, unemployment, education and social isolation, and health insurance coverage) were analyzed by census tract. The data were examined in the context of land cover maps generated using products from the Puerto Rico Terrestrial Gap Analysis Project (USDA Forest Service). All variables were set in order to transform the indicators expressed in different units into indices between 0 and 1, and the HVI was calculated as sum of score. The tract with highest index was considered to be the most vulnerable and the lowest to be the least vulnerable. Five vulnerability classes were mapped (very high, high, moderate, low, and very low). The hottest and the most vulnerable tracts corresponded to highly built areas, including the Luis Munoz International Airport, seaports, parking lots, and high-density residential areas. Several variables contributed to increased vulnerability, including higher rates of the population living alone, disabilities, advanced age, and lack of health insurance coverage. Coolest areas corresponded to vegetated landscapes and urban water bodies. The urban HVI map will be useful to health officers, emergency preparedness personnel, the National Weather Service, and San Juan residents, as it helps to prepare for and to mitigate the potential effects of heat-related illnesses.

Climate change, heat, and mortality in the tropical urban area of San Juan, Puerto Rico - Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo A.; Pérez-Cardona, Cynthia M.; Rodríguez, Ernesto; Martínez, Odalys; Taboas, Mariela; Bocanegra, Arelis; Méndez-Tejeda, Rafael (International Journal of Biometeorology, 2016)
Extreme heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical areas of Australia, India, and Puerto Rico. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat episodes are triggering public health issues in most mid-latitude and continental cities. With urbanization, land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly encouraging the Urban Heat Island effect with potential impacts on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations. However, this association is not completely understood in tropical islands such as Puerto Rico. The present study examines the effects of heat in two municipalities (San Juan and Bayamón) within the San Juan metropolitan area on overall and cause-specific mortality among the population between 2009 and 2013. The number of daily deaths attributed to selected causes (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, chronic lower respiratory disease, pneumonia, and kidney disease) coded and classified according to the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases was analyzed. The relations between elevated air surface temperatures on cause-specific mortality were modeled. Separate Poisson regression models were fitted to explain the total number of deaths as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, while adjusting for seasonal patterns. Results show a significant increase in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, during the summers of 2012 and 2013. Stroke (relative risk = 16.80, 95% CI 6.81–41.4) and cardiovascular diseases (relative risk = 16.63, 95% CI 10.47–26.42) were the primary causes of death most associated with elevated summer temperatures. Better understanding of how these heat events affect the health of the population will provide a useful tool for decision makers to address and mitigate the effects of the increasing temperatures on public health. The enhanced temperature forecast may be a crucial component in decision making during the National Weather Service Heat Watches, Advisories, and Warning process.

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment - Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network-daily database - Menne, Matthew J.; Durre, Imke; Vose, Russell S.; Gleason, Byron E.; Houston, Tamara G. (Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2012)
A database is described that has been designed to fulfill the need for daily climate data over global land areas. The dataset, known as Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)-Daily, was developed for a wide variety of potential applications, including climate analysis and monitoring studies that require data at a daily time resolution (e.g., assessments of the frequency of heavy rainfall, heat wave duration, etc.). The dataset contains records from over 80 000 stations in 180 countries and territories, and its processing system produces the official archive for U.S. daily data. Variables commonly include maximum and minimum temperature, total daily precipitation, snowfall, and snow depth; however, about two-thirds of the stations report precipitation only. Quality assurance checks are routinely applied to the full dataset, but the data are not homogenized to account for artifacts associated with the various eras in reporting practice at any particular station (i.e., for changes in systematic bias).Daily updates are provided for many of the station records in GHCN-Daily. The dataset is also regularly reconstructed, usually once per week, from its 20+ data source components, ensuring that the dataset is broadly synchronized with its growing list of constituent sources. The daily updates and weekly reprocessed versions of GHCN-Daily are assigned a unique version number, and the most recent dataset version is provided on the GHCN-Daily website for free public access. Each version of the dataset is also archived at the NOAA/National Climatic Data Center in perpetuity for future retrieval.

Homogenization of temperature series via pairwise comparisons - Menne, M.J.; Williams, C.N., Jr. (Journal of Climate, 2009)
An automated homogenization algorithm based on the pairwise comparison of monthly temperature series is described. The algorithm works by forming pairwise difference series between serial monthly temperature values from a network of observing stations. Each difference series is then evaluated for undocumented shifts, and the station series responsible for such breaks is identified automatically. The algorithm also makes use of station history information, when available, to improve the identification of artificial shifts in temperature data. In addition, an evaluation is carried out to distinguish trend inhomogeneities from abrupt shifts. When the magnitude of an apparent shift attributed to a particular station can be reliably estimated, an adjustment is made for the target series. The pairwise algorithm is shown to be robust and efficient at detecting undocumented step changes under a variety of simulated scenarios with step- and trend-type inhomogeneities. Moreover, the approach is shown to yield a lower false-alarm rate for undocumented changepoint detection relative to the more common use of a reference series. Results from the algorithm are used to assess evidence for trend inhomogeneities in U.S. monthly temperature data.
Keywords: Algorithms,; Climate records,; Temperature

European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern - Menzel, Annette; Sparks, Tim H.; Estrella, Nicole; Koch, Elisabeth; Aasa, Anto; Ahas, Rein; Alm-Kübler, Kerstin; Bissolli, Peter; Braslavská, Ol'Ga; Briede, Agrita; Chmielewski, Frank M.; Crepinsek, Zalika; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2006)
Keywords: climate change Europe growing season meta analysis phenology season temperature response trend

Evaluating alternative prescribed burning policies to reduce net economic damages from wildfire - Mercer, D. Evan; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Butry, David T.; Pye, John M. (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2007)
We estimate a wildfire risk model with a new measure of wildfire output, intensity-weighted risk and use it in Monte Carlo simulations to estimate welfare changes from alternative prescribed burning policies. Using Volusia County, Florida as a case study, an annual prescribed burning rate of 13% of all forest lands maximizes net welfare; ignoring the effects on wildfire intensity may underestimate optimal rates of prescribed burning. Our estimated supply function for prescribed fire services is inelastic, suggesting that increasing contract prescribed fire services on public lands may produce rapidly escalating costs for private landowners and unintended distributional and “leakage” effects.
10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.00963.x

Oceanographic responses to climate in the northwest Atlantic - MERCINA Working Group; Pershing, Andrew J.; Greene, Charles H.; Hannah, Charles; Sameoto, Doug; Head, Erica; Mountain, David G.; Jossi, Jack W.; Benfield, Mark C.; Reid, Philip C.; Durbin, Ted G. (Oceanography, 2015)

Evolution in response to climate change: In pursuit of the missing evidence - Merilä, Juha (BioEssays, 2012)
Climate change is imposing intensified and novel selection pressures on organisms by altering abiotic and biotic environmental conditions on Earth, but studies demonstrating genetic adaptation to climate change mediated selection are still scarce. Evidence is accumulating to indicate that both genetic and ecological constrains may often limit populations' abilities to adapt to large scale effects of climate warming. These constraints may predispose many organisms to respond to climate change with range shifts and phenotypic plasticity, rather than through evolutionary adaptation. In general, broad conclusions about the role of evolutionary adaptation in mitigating climate change induced fitness loss in the wild are as yet difficult to make. Editor's suggested further reading in BioEssays: How will fish that evolved at constant sub‐zero temperatures cope with global warming?

Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: The problem and the evidence - Merilä, Juha; Hendry, Andrew P. (Evolutionary Applications, 2014)
Many studies have recorded phenotypic changes in natural populations and attributed them to climate change. However, controversy and uncertainty has arisen around three levels of inference in such studies. First, it has proven difficult to conclusively distinguish whether phenotypic changes are genetically based or the result of phenotypic plasticity. Second, whether or not the change is adaptive is usually assumed rather than tested. Third, inferences that climate change is the specific causal agent have rarely involved the testing – and exclusion – of other potential drivers. We here review the various ways in which the above inferences have been attempted, and evaluate the strength of support that each approach can provide. This methodological assessment sets the stage for 11 accompanying review articles that attempt comprehensive syntheses of what is currently known – and not known – about responses to climate change in a variety of taxa and in theory. Summarizing and relying on the results of these reviews, we arrive at the conclusion that evidence for genetic adaptation to climate change has been found in some systems, but is still relatively scarce. Most importantly, it is clear that more studies are needed – and these must employ better inferential methods – before general conclusions can be drawn. Overall, we hope that the present paper and special issue provide inspiration for future research and guidelines on best practices for its execution.

Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands - Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Wave-driven extreme water levels are examined for coastlines protected by fringing reefs using field observations obtained in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The 2% exceedence water level near the shoreline due to waves is estimated empirically for the study sites from breaking wave height at the outer reef and by combining separate contributions from setup, sea and swell, and infragravity waves, which are estimated based on breaking wave height and water level over the reef flat. Although each component exhibits a tidal dependence, they sum to yield a 2% exceedence level that does not. A hindcast based on the breaking wave height parameterization is used to assess factors leading to flooding at Roi-Namur caused by an energetic swell event during December 2008. Extreme water levels similar to December 2008 are projected to increase significantly with rising sea level as more wave and tide events combine to exceed inundation threshold levels.
Keywords: extreme events winds and waves Sea level coastal inundation Republic of the Marshall Islands 4560 Surface waves and tides 4220 Coral reef systems 4313 Extreme events 4556 Sea level: variations and mean coastal effects extreme water levels

[Global Oceans] Sea level variability and change [in “State of the Climate in 2014”] - Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P.; Leuliette, E.; Mitchum, G. T.; Chambers, D. P.; Jevrejeva, S.; Nerem, R. S.; Menéndez, M.; Sweet, W.; Hamlington, B.; Marra, J. J. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015)

A Rising Tide: The Changing Landscape of Risk - Merritt, Elizabeth (Center for the Future of Museums, 2012)
Keywords: added by ERG

Estimating heat wave-related mortality in Europe using singular spectrum analysis - Merte, Steffen (Climatic Change, 2017)
Estimating the impact of heat waves on human mortality is key when it comes to the design of effective climate change adaptation measures. As the usual approach—relying on detailed health data in form of hospital records—is not feasible for many countries, a different methodology is needed. This work presents such an approach. Based on singular spectrum analysis and using monthly mortality rates—partly ranging back to 1960—it derives excess mortality estimates for 27 European countries. Excess mortality is then regressed against a heat wave measure in order to assess the health impacts of extreme heat. The analysis demonstrates that many European countries are severely affected by heat waves: On average, 0.61%—and up to 1.14% in case of Portugal—of all deaths are caused by extreme heat events. This finding confirms the understanding that climate change is a major environmental risk to public health: In the 27 examined European countries, over 28,000 people die every year due to exposure to extreme heat.

From management to stewardship: Viewing forests as complex adaptive systems in an uncertain world - Messier, C.; Puettmann, K.; Chazdon, R.; Andersson, K.P.; Angers, V.A.; Brotons, L.; Filotas, E.; Tittler, R.; Parrott, L.; Levin, S.A. (Conservation Letters, 2015)
The world's forests and forestry sector are facing unprecedented biological, political, social, and climatic challenges. The development of appropriate, novel forest management and restoration approaches that adequately consider uncertainty and adaptability are hampered by a continuing focus on production of a few goods or objectives, strong control of forest structure and composition, and most importantly the absence of a global scientific framework and long‐term vision. Ecosystem‐based approaches represent a step in the right direction, but are limited in their ability to deal with the rapid pace of social, climatic, and environmental changes. We argue here that viewing forest ecosystems as complex adaptive system provides a better alternative for both production‐ and conservation‐oriented forests and forestry. We propose a set of broad principles and changes to increase the adaptive capacity of forests in the face of future uncertainties. These span from expanding the sustained‐yield, single‐good paradigm to developing policy incentives and interventions that promote self‐organization and integrated social‐ecological adaptation.

Rainscaping - Metropolitan Sewer District (MSD Project Clear, 2017)

Integrated Water Resources Plan: 2015 Update - Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, 2016)

Summer heat and mortality in New York City: How hot is too hot? - Metzger, Kristina B; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas D (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2010)

Hedging the financial risk from water scarcity for Great Lakes shipping - Meyer, Eliot S.; Characklis, Gregory W.; Brown, Casey; Moody, Paul (Water Resources Research, 2016)
Keywords: environmental financial risk droughts index insurance 4303 Hydrological 1812 Drought 9345 Large bodies of water (e.g., lakes and inland seas)

Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 2: Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and the Highway System: Practitioner’s Guide and Research Report - Meyer, Michael; Flood, Michael; Keller, Jake; Lennon, Justin; McVoy, Gary; Dorney, Chris; Leonard, Ken; Hyman, Robert; Smith, Joel (National Academies Press, 2014)
TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 2: Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and the Highway System: Practitioner’s Guide and Research Report provides guidance on adaptation strategies to the likely impacts of climate change through 2050 in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of infrastructure assets in the United States (and through 2100 for sea-level rise).In addition to the practitioner’s guide and research report, this project also developed the following items:• A software tool that runs in common web browsers and provides specific, region-based information on incorporating climate change adaptation into the planning and design of bridges, culverts, stormwater infrastructure, slopes, walls, and pavements.• Tables that provide the same information as the previously mentioned software tool, but in a spreadsheet format that can be printed.• Two spreadsheets that illustrate examples of the benefit-cost analysis of adaptation strategies discussed in Appendix B of Part I of NCHRP Report 750, Volume 2.These three items are available on a CD-ROM that is included with a print version of the report. The CD-ROM is also available for download from TRB’s website as an ISO image. Links to the ISO image and instructions for burning a CD-ROM from an ISO image are provided below.• Help on Burning an .ISO CD-ROM Image.• Download the .ISO CD-ROM Image(Warning: This is a large file and may take some time to download using a high-speed connection.)NCHRP Report 750, Volume 2 is the second in a series of reports being produced by NCHRP Project 20-83: Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry. Major trends affecting the future of the United States and the world will dramatically reshape transportation priorities and needs. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) established the NCHRP Project 20-83 research series to examine global and domestic long-range strategic issues and their implications for state departments of transportation (DOTs); AASHTO's aim for the research series is to help prepare the DOTs for the challenges and benefits created by these trends.Other volumes in this series currently available include:• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 1: Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 3: Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing Transportation System Performance• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 4: Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 5: Preparing State Transportation Agencies for an Uncertain Energy Future• NCHRP Report 750: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 6: The Effects of Socio-Demographics on Future Travel DemandCD-ROM Disclaimer - This software is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences or the Transportation Research Board (collectively "TRB") be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operation of this product. TRB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.
Keywords: Transportation

Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean - Meyer-Gutbrod, Erin L.; Greene, Charles H. (Global Change Biology, 2018)
Human activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions. The North Atlantic right whale population is currently the focus of conservation efforts aimed at reducing mortality rates associated with ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. Consistent monitoring of the population since 1980 has revealed evidence that climate-associated changes in prey availability have played an important role in the population's recovery. The considerable interdecadal differences observed in population growth coincide with remote Arctic and North Atlantic oceanographic processes that link to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Here, we build capture-recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on right whale demographic transitional probabilities and use a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century. Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability. This study highlights the importance of understanding the oceanographic context for observed population changes when evaluating the efficacy of conservation management plans for endangered marine species.

Globalization of land use: Distant drivers of land change and geographic displacement of land use - Meyfroidt, Patrick; Lambin, Eric F; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Hertel, Thomas W (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2013)

Recommendations For an Enhanced Capital Plan. Final Report for Resolution R-46-15 in Support of the Sea Level Risk Task Force Final Recommendation - Miami-Dade County (Miami-Dade Board of County Commissioners, 2016)

Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions - Michalak, Anna M.; Anderson, Eric J.; Beletsky, Dmitry; Boland, Steven; Bosch, Nathan S.; Bridgeman, Thomas B.; Chaffin, Justin D.; Cho, Kyunghwa; Confesor, Rem; Daloğlu, Irem; DePinto, Joseph V.; Evans, Mary Anne; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.

Optioning agricultural water rights for urban water supplies during drought - Michelsen, Ari M.; Young, Robert A. (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1993)
Option contracts for temporary use of irrigation water rights are evaluated as a less-expensive institutional arrangement for providing drought insurance for urban water agencies. Desirable option contract provisions are suggested and a framework for evaluating the economic benefits of water supply options is proposed. An integrated analytical system simulating the hydrologic, institutional, and economic relationships for a case study area in northeast Colorado is developed to evaluate the economic feasibility of water supply option contracts. Estimated present value benefits and sensitivity analyses indicate that dry year water options are economically viable over a considerable range of conditions.

Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States - Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Field, B. D.; Rind, D. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2004)
We examine the impact of future climate change on regional air pollution meteorology in the United States by conducting a transient climate change (1950–2052) simulation in a general circulation model (GCM) of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS). We include in the GCM two tracers of anthropogenic pollution, combustion carbon monoxide (COt) and black carbon (BCt). Sources of both tracers and the loss frequency of COt are held constant in time, while wet deposition of BCt responds to the changing climate. Results show that the severity and duration of summertime regional pollution episodes in the midwestern and northeastern United States increase significantly relative to present. Pollutant concentrations during these episodes increase by 5–10% and the mean episode duration increases from 2 to 3–4 days. These increases appear to be driven by a decline in the frequency of mid‐latitude cyclones tracking across southern Canada. The cold fronts associated with these cyclones are known to provide the main mechanism for ventilation of the midwestern and northeastern United States. Mid‐latitude cyclone frequency is expected to decrease in a warmer climate; such a decrease is already apparent in long‐term observations. Mixing depths over the midwest and northeast increase by 100–240 m in our future‐climate simulation, not enough to compensate for the increased stagnation resulting from reduced cyclone frequency.

Urban forestry and cool roofs: Assessment of heat mitigation strategies in Phoenix residential neighborhoods - Middel, Ariane; Chhetri, Nalini; Quay, Raymond (Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change Cool roofs ENVI-met Heat mitigation Trees and shade

Fuels: Greenville rancheria - Middleton, Beth Rose (Smoke Signals, 2012)

“Just another hoop to jump through?” Using environmental laws and processes to protect indigenous rights - Middleton, Beth Rose (Environmental Management, 2013)
Protection of culturally important indigenous landscapes has become an increasingly important component of environmental management processes, for both companies and individuals striving to comply with environmental regulations, and for indigenous groups seeking stronger laws to support site protection and cultural/human rights. Given that indigenous stewardship of culturally important sites, species, and practices continues to be threatened or prohibited on lands out of indigenous ownership, this paper examines whether or not indigenous people can meaningfully apply mainstream environmental management laws and processes to achieve protection of traditional sites and associated stewardship activities. While environmental laws can provide a “back door” to protect traditional sites and practices, they are not made for this purpose, and, as such, require specific amendments to become more useful for indigenous practitioners. Acknowledging thoughtful critiques of the cultural incommensurability of environmental law with indigenous environmental stewardship of sacred sites, I interrogate the ability of four specific environmental laws and processes—the Uniform Conservation Easement Act; the National Environmental Policy Act and the California Environmental Quality Act; the Pacific Stewardship Council land divestiture process; and Senate Bill 18 (CA-2004)—to protect culturally important landscapes and practices. I offer suggestions for improving these laws and processes to make them more applicable to indigenous stewardship of traditional landscapes.

Water-quality impacts from climate-induced forest die-off - Mikkelson, Kristin M.; Dickenson, Eric R. V.; Maxwell, Reed M.; McCray, John E.; Sharp, Jonathan O. (Nature Climate Change, 2012)

Reducing urban heat wave risk in the 21st century - Milan, B. F.; Creutzig, F. (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2015)
Global warming increases the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves, particularly endangering urban populations. However, the health risks of heat waves are distributed unequally between people because of intrinsic person-specific characteristics and extrinsic factors. The confluence of forecasted urbanisation and projected heat wave increase necessitates the identification of strategies that both lower the overall health impact and narrow the gap in risk distribution within urban populations. Here, we review the literature on vulnerability to heat, highlighting the factors that affect such distribution. As a key lesson we find that the literature strands on public health, risk reduction and urban planning all contribute to the identification of alleviation options for urban heat wave health impacts, but that they are rarely jointly evaluated. On the basis of the literature review, we suggest a common framework. We also evaluate response measures in addressing total and distributed risks. We find that person-specific risk is effectively addressed by public health and risk reduction intervention, while intra-urban variations of extrinsic factors can be efficiently tackled with urban planning, both in scale and scope.
Keywords: Urban Heat Health Vulnerability

The effects of ambient temperature and heatwaves on daily Campylobacter cases in Adelaide, Australia, 1990–2012 - Milazzo, A.; Giles, L. C.; Zhang, Y.; Koehler, A. P.; Hiller, J. E.; Bi, P. (Epidemiology and Infection, 2017)
Campylobacter spp. is a commonly reported food-borne disease with major consequences for morbidity. In conjunction with predicted increases in temperature, proliferation in the survival of microorganisms in hotter environments is expected. This is likely to lead, in turn, to an increase in contamination of food and water and a rise in numbers of cases of infectious gastroenteritis. This study assessed the relationship of Campylobacter spp. with temperature and heatwaves, in Adelaide, South Australia. We estimated the effect of (i) maximum temperature and (ii) heatwaves on daily Campylobacter cases during the warm seasons (1 October to 31 March) from 1990 to 2012 using Poisson regression models. There was no evidence of a substantive effect of maximum temperature per 1 °C rise (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0·995, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0·993–0·997) nor heatwaves (IRR 0·906, 95% CI 0·800–1·026) on Campylobacter cases. In relation to heatwave intensity, which is the daily maximum temperature during a heatwave, notifications decreased by 19% within a temperature range of 39–40·9 °C (IRR 0·811, 95% CI 0·692–0·952). We found little evidence of an increase in risk and lack of association between Campylobacter cases and temperature or heatwaves in the warm seasons. Heatwave intensity may play a role in that notifications decreased with higher temperatures. Further examination of the role of behavioural and environmental factors in an effort to reduce the risk of increased Campylobacter cases is warranted.
Keywords: Campylobacter climate impact of food-borne infections infectious disease epidemiology

Elevated CO2 and defoliation effects on a shortgrass steppe: Forage quality versus quantity for ruminants - Milchunas, D. G.; Mosier, A. R.; Morgan, J. A.; LeCain, D. R.; King, J. Y.; Nelson, J. A. (Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2005)
Keywords: Compensatory regrowth Digestibility Nitrogen fertilization Grassland Herbivory Lignin

A global comparison between station air temperatures and MODIS land surface temperatures reveals the cooling role of forests - Mildrexler, David J; Zhao, Maosheng; Running, Steven W (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011)

Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance - Millar, Constance I.; Stephenson, Nathan L. (Science, 2015)
Although disturbances such as fire and native insects can contribute to natural dynamics of forest health, exceptional droughts, directly and in combination with other disturbance factors, are pushing some temperate forests beyond thresholds of sustainability. Interactions from increasing temperatures, drought, native insects and pathogens, and uncharacteristically severe wildfire are resulting in forest mortality beyond the levels of 20th-century experience. Additional anthropogenic stressors, such as atmospheric pollution and invasive species, further weaken trees in some regions. Although continuing climate change will likely drive many areas of temperate forest toward large-scale transformations, management actions can help ease transitions and minimize losses of socially valued ecosystem services.

Response of subalpine conifers in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, to 20th-century warming and decadal climate variability - Millar, C. I.; Westfall, R. D.; Delany, D. L.; King, J. C.; Graumlich, L. J. (Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 2004)

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C - Millar, Richard J.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Rogelj, Joeri; Grubb, Michael J.; Matthews, H. Damon; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Forster, Piers M.; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R. (Nature Geoscience, 2017)

Author Correction: Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C - Millar, Richard J.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Rogelj, Joeri; Grubb, Michael J.; Matthews, H. Damon; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Forster, Piers M.; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R. (Nature Geoscience, 2018)
In the version of this Article originally published, a coding error resulted in the erroneous inclusion of a subset of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations in the sets used for RCP2.6 and RCP6, respectively, leading to an incorrect depiction of the data of the latter two sets in Fig. 1b and RCP2.6 in Table 2. This coding error has now been corrected. The graphic and quantitative changes in the corrected Fig. 1b and Table 2 are contrasted with the originally published display items below. The core conclusions of the paper are not affected, but some numerical values and statements have also been updated as a result; these are listed below. All these errors have now been corrected in the online versions of this Article.

Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis - Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Island Press, 2005)

Offshore habitat preference of overwintering juvenile and adult black sea bass, Centropristis striata, and the relationship to year-class success - Miller, Alicia S.; Shepherd, Gary R.; Fratantoni, Paula S. (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Black sea bass (Centropristis striata) migrations are believed to play a role in overwinter survival and connectivity between juvenile and adult populations. This study investigated oceanographic drivers of winter habitat choice and regional differences between populations of juvenile and adult black sea bass. Trends in cohort strength, as a result of juvenile survival, were also identified. Oceanographic and fisheries survey data were analyzed using generalized additive models. Among the oceanographic variables investigated, salinity was the main driver in habitat selection with an optimal range of 33–35 practical salinity units (PSU) for both juveniles and adults. Preferred temperature ranges varied between juveniles and adults, but held a similar minimum preference of >8°C. Salinity and temperature ranges also differed by regions north and south of Hudson Canyon. Shelf water volume had less of an effect than temperature or salinity, but showed an overall negative relationship with survey catch. The effect of winter conditions on juvenile abundance was also observed across state and federal survey index trends. A lack of correlation observed among surveys in the fall paired with a strong correlation in the spring identifies the winter period as a factor determining year-class strength of new recruits to the population. A rank order analysis of spring indices identified three of the largest year classes occurring during years with reduced shelf water volumes, warmer winter shelf waters, and a 34 PSU isohaline aligned farther inshore. While greater catches of black sea bass in the northwest Atlantic Ocean remain south of Hudson Canyon, the species’ range has expanded north in recent years.

Coral disease following massive bleaching in 2005 causes 60% decline in coral cover on reefs in the US Virgin Islands - Miller, J.; Muller, E.; Rogers, C.; Waara, R.; Atkinson, A.; Whelan, K.R.T.; Patterson, M.; Witcher, B. (Coral Reefs, 2009)

Water Policy and Planning in a Variable and Changing Climate: Insights from the Western United States - Miller, Kathleen A.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Kenney, Douglas S.; Redmond, Kelly T. (CRC Press, 2016)
Keywords: added by ERG Imported by ERG

A geological perspective on sea-level rise and its impacts along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast - Miller, Kenneth G.; Kopp, Robert E.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Browning, James V.; Kemp, Andrew C. (Earth’s Future, 2013)
Keywords: Sea level Mid-Atlantic Coastal flooding Storm tide 1223 Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions 1641 Sea level change 1622 Earth system modeling 1630 Impacts of global change

Infectious disease, shifting climates, and opportunistic predators: Cumulative factors potentially impacting wild salmon declines - Miller, Kristina M.; Teffer, Amy; Tucker, Strahan; Li, Shaorong; Schulze, Angela D.; Trudel, Marc; Juanes, Francis; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H.; Ginther, Norma G.; Ming, Tobi J.; Cooke, Steven J.; et al. (Evolutionary Applications, 2014)
Keywords: climate coevolution cumulative impacts ecological impacts infectious disease microparasite predation wild salmon

Climate change enhances the negative effects of predation risk on an intermediate consumer - Miller, Luke P.; Matassa, Catherine M.; Trussell, Geoffrey C. (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Keywords: Carcinus maenas climate change foraging Nucella lapillus predation risk predator-prey species interactions temperature

Report: Alaska tourists may shift to new areas because of climate change - Miller, Matthew (KTOO Public Media, 2014)

Hampton Roads Climate Impact Quantification Initiative: Baseline Assessment of the Transportation Assets & Overview of Economic Analyses Useful in Quantifying Impacts - Miller, Rawlings; Arthur, David; Barami, Bahar; Breck, Andrew; Costa, Stephen; Lewis, Kristin; McCoy, Kevin; Morrison, Emma (Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, 2016)

Reservation "Capitalism": Economic Development in Indian Country - Miller, Robert J. (Praeger, 2012)

Indian entrepreneurship - Miller, Robert J. (Unlocking the Wealth of Indian Nations, 2016)

FHWA Climate Resilience Pilot Program: Massachusetts Department of Transportation - Miller, Steven; Lupes, Becky (2015)

The potential impact of climate change on Great Lakes international shipping - Millerd, Frank (Climatic Change, 2011)
Keywords: Climate change

The effects of phenological mismatches on demography - Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Høye, Toke Thomas; Inouye, David W.; Post, Eric (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2010)
Climate change is altering the phenology of species across the world, but what are the consequences of these phenological changes for the demography and population dynamics of species? Time-sensitive relationships, such as migration, breeding and predation, may be disrupted or altered, which may in turn alter the rates of reproduction and survival, leading some populations to decline and others to increase in abundance. However, finding evidence for disrupted relationships, or lack thereof, and their demographic effects, is difficult because the necessary detailed observational data are rare. Moreover, we do not know how sensitive species will generally be to phenological mismatches when they occur. Existing long-term studies provide preliminary data for analysing the phenology and demography of species in several locations. In many instances, though, observational protocols may need to be optimized to characterize timing-based multi-trophic interactions. As a basis for future research, we outline some of the key questions and approaches to improving our understanding of the relationships among phenology, demography and climate in a multi-trophic context. There are many challenges associated with this line of research, not the least of which is the need for detailed, long-term data on many organisms in a single system. However, we identify key questions that can be addressed with data that already exist and propose approaches that could guide future research.

Projecting age-stratified risk of exposure to inland flooding and wildfire smoke in the United States under two climate scenarios - Mills, David; Jones, Russell; Wobus, Cameron; Ekstrom, Julia; Jantarasami, Lesley; St. Juliana, Alexis; Crimmins, Allison (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2018)

Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas in the United States - Mills, David; Schwartz, Joel; Lee, Mihye; Sarofim, Marcus; Jones, Russell; Lawson, Megan; Duckworth, Michael; Deck, Leland (Climatic Change, 2015)
Ch2

An insurance perspective on U.S. electric grid disruption costs - Mills, Evan; Jones, Richard B (The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 2016)
Large yet infrequent disruptions of electrical power can impact tens of millions of people in a single event, triggering significant economic damages, portions of which are insured. Small and frequent events are also significant in the aggregate. This article explores the role that insurance claims data can play in better defining the broader economic impacts of grid disruptions in the U.S. context. We developed four case studies, using previously unpublished data for specific actual grid disruptions. The cases include the 1977 New York City blackout, the 2003 Northeast blackout, multi-year national annual lightning-related electrical damage and multi-year national line-disturbance events. Insured losses represent between 3 and 64 per cent of total loss costs across the case studies. The household sector emerges as a larger locus of costs than indicated in previous studies, and short-lived events emerge as important sources of loss costs.

Fisheries management in a changing climate: Lessons from the 2012 ocean heat wave in the northwest Atlantic - Mills, K.E.; Pershing, A.J.; Brown, C.J.; Chen, Y.; Chiang, F.-S.; Holland, D.S.; Lehuta, S.; Nye, J.A.; Sun, J.C.; Thomas, A.C.; Wahle, R.A. (Oceanography, 2013)

Forecasting the seasonal timing of Maine's lobster fishery - Mills, Katherine E.; Pershing, Andrew J.; Hernández, Christina M. (Frontiers in Marine Science, 2017)
The fishery for American lobster is currently the highest-valued commercial fishery in the United States, worth over US$620 million in dockside value in 2015. During a marine heat wave in 2012, the fishery was disrupted by the early warming of spring ocean temperatures and subsequent influx of lobster landings. This situation resulted in a price collapse, as the supply chain was not prepared for the early and abundant landings of lobsters. Motivated by this series of events, we have developed a forecast of when the Maine (USA) lobster fishery will shift into its high volume summer landings period. The forecast uses a regression approach to relate spring ocean temperatures derived from four NERACOOS buoys along the coast of Maine to the start day of the high landings period of the fishery. Tested against conditions in past years, the forecast is able to predict the start day to within one week of the actual start, and the forecast can be issued 3-4 months prior to the onset of the high-landings period, providing valuable lead-time for the fishery and its associated supply chain to prepare for the upcoming season. Forecast results are conveyed in a probabilistic manner and are updated weekly over a 6-week forecasting period so that users can assess the certainty and consistency of the forecast and factor the uncertainty into their use of the information in a given year. By focusing on the timing of events, this type of seasonal forecast provides climate-relevant information to users at time scales that are meaningful for operational decisions. As climate change alters seasonal phenology and reduces the reliability of past experience as a guide for future expectations, this type of forecast can enable fishing industry participants to better adjust to and prepare for operating in the context of climate change.
Keywords: Seasonal forecast,temperature,fishery landings,lobster fishery,climate variability

Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations - Mills, Katherine E.; Pershing, Andrew J.; Sheehan, Timothy F.; Mountain, David (Global Change Biology, 2013)
North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations.

Camouflage mismatch in seasonal coat color due to decreased snow duration - Mills, L. Scott; Zimova, Marketa; Oyler, Jared; Running, Steven; Abatzoglou, John T.; Lukacs, Paul M. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
Most examples of seasonal mismatches in phenology span multiple trophic levels, with timing of animal reproduction, hibernation, or migration becoming detached from peak food supply. The consequences of such mismatches are difficult to link to specific future climate change scenarios because the responses across trophic levels have complex underlying climate drivers often confounded by other stressors. In contrast, seasonal coat color polyphenism creating camouflage against snow is a direct and potentially severe type of seasonal mismatch if crypsis becomes compromised by the animal being white when snow is absent. It is unknown whether plasticity in the initiation or rate of coat color change will be able to reduce mismatch between the seasonal coat color and an increasingly snow-free background. We find that natural populations of snowshoe hares exposed to 3 y of widely varying snowpack have plasticity in the rate of the spring white-to-brown molt, but not in either the initiation dates of color change or the rate of the fall brown-to-white molt. Using an ensemble of locally downscaled climate projections, we also show that annual average duration of snowpack is forecast to decrease by 29–35 d by midcentury and 40–69 d by the end of the century. Without evolution in coat color phenology, the reduced snow duration will increase the number of days that white hares will be mismatched on a snowless background by four- to eightfold by the end of the century. This novel and visually compelling climate change-induced stressor likely applies to >9 widely distributed mammals with seasonal coat color.

Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? - Milly, P. C. D.; Betancourt, Julio; Falkenmark, Malin; Hirsch, Robert M.; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Stouffer, Ronald J. (Science, 2008)

Mental health impacts of flooding: A controlled interrupted time series analysis of prescribing data in England - Milojevic, Ai; Armstrong, Ben; Wilkinson, Paul (Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 2017)
Background There is emerging evidence that people affected by flooding suffer adverse impacts on their mental well-being, mostly based on self-reports.Methods We examined prescription records for drugs used in the management of common mental disorder among primary care practices located in the vicinity of recent large flood events in England, 2011–2014. A controlled interrupted time series analysis was conducted of the number of prescribing items for antidepressant drugs in the year before and after the flood onset. Pre–post changes were compared by distance of the practice from the inundated boundaries among 930 practices located within 10 km of a flood.Results After control for deprivation and population density, there was an increase of 0.59% (95% CI 0.24 to 0.94) prescriptions in the postflood year among practices located within 1 km of a flood over and above the change observed in the furthest distance band. The increase was greater in more deprived areas.Conclusions This study suggests an increase in prescribed antidepressant drugs in the year after flooding in primary care practices close to recent major floods in England. The degree to which the increase is actually concentrated in those flooded can only be determined by more detailed linkage studies.

NOAA Fisheries mobilizes to gauge unprecedented West Coast toxic algal bloom - Milstein, Michael (NOAA Fisheries News & Events, 2015)

Ch. 16: Small islands - Mimura, N.; Nurse, L.; McLean, R.F.; Agard, J.; Briguglio, L.; Lefale, P.; Payet, R.; Sem, G.; Agricole, W.; Ebi, K.; Forbes, D.; Hay, J.; et al. (Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007)

Adaptation planning and implementation - Mimura, N.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Duc, D. M.; Elshinnawy, I.; Redsteer, M. H.; Huang, H. Q.; Nkem, J. N.; Rodriguez, R. A. Sanchez (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 2014)

Human-induced Arctic moistening - Min, Seung-Ki; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis (Science, 2008)
The Arctic and northern subpolar regions are critical for climate change. Ice-albedo feedback amplifies warming in the Arctic, and fluctuations of regional fresh water inflow to the Arctic Ocean modulate the deep ocean circulation and thus exert a strong global influence. By comparing observations to simulations from 22 coupled climate models, we find influence from anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in the space-time pattern of precipitation change over high-latitude land areas north of 55°N during the second half of the 20th century. The human-induced Arctic moistening is consistent with observed increases in Arctic river discharge and freshening of Arctic water masses. This result provides new evidence that human activity has contributed to Arctic hydrological change.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/320/5875/518.full.pdf

Minnesota Climate and Health Profile Report 2015: An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Health & Well-Being of Minnesotans - Minnesota Department of Health (Minnesota Department of Health, 2015)

Climate change and food safety: An emerging issue with special focus on Europe - Miraglia, M.; Marvin, H. J. P.; Kleter, G. A.; Battilani, P.; Brera, C.; Coni, E.; Cubadda, F.; Croci, L.; De Santis, B.; Dekkers, S.; Filippi, L.; Hutjes, R. W. A.; et al. (Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009)

Recent challenges in modeling of urban heat island - Mirzaei, Parham A. (Sustainable Cities and Society, 2015)
Keywords: Urban heat island Modeling Review

Changing thermal dynamics of lakes in the Great Lakes region: Role of ice cover feedbacks - Mishra, Vimal; Cherkauer, Keith A.; Bowling, Laura C. (Global and Planetary Change, 2011)
Keywords: lakes VIC model climate variability climate change heat storage ice cover feedback

A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States - Mishra, Vimal; Cherkauer, Keith A.; Niyogi, Dev; Lei, Ming; Pijanowski, Bryan C.; Ray, Deepak K.; Bowling, Laura C.; Yang, Guoxiang (International Journal of Climatology, 2010)
Keywords: Land cover change land-use change climate change land surface response sensitivity analysis water and energy cycle deforestation/reforestation urbanization VIC IPCC

Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas - Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R.; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
Climate extremes have profound implications for urban infrastructure and human society, but studies of observed changes in climate extremes over the global urban areas are few, even though more than half of the global population now resides in urban areas. Here, using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases ( p -value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973–2012, while the frequency of cold waves has declined. Almost half of the urban areas experienced significant increases in the number of extreme hot days, while almost 2/3 showed significant increases in the frequency of extreme hot nights. Extreme windy days declined substantially during the last four decades with statistically significant declines in about 60% in the urban areas. Significant increases ( p -value <0.05) in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes and in annual maximum precipitation occurred at smaller fractions (17 and 10% respectively) of the total urban areas, with about half as many urban areas showing statistically significant downtrends as uptrends. Changes in temperature and wind extremes, estimated as the result of a 40 year linear trend, differed for urban and non-urban pairs, while changes in indices of extreme precipitation showed no clear differentiation for urban and selected non-urban stations.

Traveler Information Report [web site] - Missouri Department of Transportation (2017)

Traveler Information Report [web site] - Missouri Department of Transportation (2017)

Integrated water resource management, institutional arrangements, and land-use planning - Mitchell, Bruce (Environment and Planning A, 2005)
A systems, holistic, or ecosystem approach is often advocated for water management, and has led to the emergence of integrated water resource management, or IWRM. Such an approach can be interpreted as ‘comprehensive’ or ‘integrated’, and analysts, planners, and managers need to understand the difference. Edge or boundary problems always are encountered when applying a holistic approach, and design of institutional arrangements cannot eliminate these problems but can minimize them. IWRM often does not have a statutory basis, which can lead to implementation challenges. By linking IWRM to land-use planning and official plans at the local level, IWRM can be given credibility, as well as be systematically connected to land-based issues.

Marsh persistence under sea-level rise is controlled by multiple, geologically variable stressors - Mitchell, M.; Herman, J.; Bilkovic, D. M.; Hershner, C. (Ecosystem Health and Sustainability, 2017)

Dedicated energy crops and crop residues for bioenergy feedstocks in the central and eastern USA - Mitchell, R. B.; Schmer, M. R.; Anderson, W. F.; Jin, V.; Balkcom, K. S.; Kiniry, J.; Coffin, A.; White, P. (BioEnergy Research, 2016)
Dedicated energy crops and crop residues will meet herbaceous feedstock demands for the new bioeconomy in the Central and Eastern USA. Perennial warm-season grasses and corn stover are well-suited to the eastern half of the USA and provide opportunities for expanding agricultural operations in the region. A suite of warm-season grasses and associated management practices have been developed by researchers from the Agricultural Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and collaborators associated with USDA Regional Biomass Research Centers. Second generation biofuel feedstocks provide an opportunity to increase the production of transportation fuels from recently fixed plant carbon rather than from fossil fuels. Although there is no “one-size-fits-all” bioenergy feedstock, crop residues like corn (Zea mays L.) stover are the most readily available bioenergy feedstocks. However, on marginally productive cropland, perennial grasses provide a feedstock supply while enhancing ecosystem services. Twenty-five years of research has demonstrated that perennial grasses like switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) are profitable and environmentally sustainable on marginally productive cropland in the western Corn Belt and Southeastern USA.

Patterns and controls of ecosystem function in longleaf pine-wiregrass savannas. I. Aboveground net primary productivity - Mitchell, Robert J.; Kirkman, L. Katherine; Pecot, Stephen D.; Wilson, Carlos A.; Palik, Brian J.; Boring, Lindsay R. (Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 1999)

Future climate and fire interactions in the southeastern region of the United States - Mitchell, Robert J.; Liu, Yongqiang; O’Brien, Joseph J.; Elliott, Katherine J.; Starr, Gregory; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Hiers, J. Kevin (Forest Ecology and Management, 2014)
Keywords: Biodiversity Carbon sequestration Climate change Ecological services Prescribed fire Wildland fire

Sea Level Changes in the Southeastern United States: Past, Present and Future - Mitchum, G. T. (Florida Climate Institute, 2011)

On the robustness of predictions of sea level fingerprints - Mitrovica, J. X.; Gomez, N.; Morrow, E.; Hay, C.; Latychev, K.; Tamisiea, M. E. (Geophysical Journal International, 2011)
The rapid melting of the Earth′s ice reservoirs will produce geographically distinct patterns of sea level change that have come to be known as sea level fingerprints. A basic, gravitationally self-consistent theory for computing these patterns appeared in the 1970s; however, recent, highly discrepant fingerprint calculations have led to suggestions that the algorithms and/or theoretical implementation adopted in many previous predictions is not robust. We present a suite of numerical predictions, including benchmark comparisons with analytic results, that counter this argument and demonstrate the accuracy of most published predictions. Moreover, we show that small differences apparent in calculations published by some groups can be accounted for by subtle differences in the underlying physics. The paper concludes with two sensitivity analyses: (1) we present the first-ever calculation of sea level fingerprints on earth models with 3-D variations in elastic structure and density, and conclude that this added complexity has a negligible effect on the predictions; (2) we compare fingerprints of polar ice sheet mass flux computed under the (very common) assumption of a uniform melt distribution to fingerprints calculated using melt geometries constrained by analysing recent trends in GRACE gravity data. Predictions in the near field of the ice sheets are sensitive to the assumed melt geometry; however, this sensitivity also extends to the far field, particularly in the case of Antarctic mass changes, because of the strong dependence of the rotational feedback signal on the melt geometry. We conclude that inferences of ice sheet mass flux based on modern sea level constraints should consider these more realistic melt geometries.

Wetlands - Mitsch, William J.; Gosselink, James G. (Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1993)

Wetlands - Mitsch, William J.; Gosselink, James G. (Wiley, 2007)