The resilience of marine ecosystems to climatic disturbances - O'Leary, Jennifer K.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Airoldi, Laura; Boch, Charles; De Leo, Giulio; Elahi, Robin; Ferretti, Francesco; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Litvin, Steven Y.; Low, Natalie H.; Lummis, Sarah; Nickols, Kerry J.; et al. (BioScience, 2017)
The intensity and frequency of climate-driven disturbances are increasing in coastal marine ecosystems. Understanding the factors that enhance or inhibit ecosystem resilience to climatic disturbance is essential. We surveyed 97 experts in six major coastal biogenic ecosystem types to identify “bright spots” of resilience in the face of climate change. We also evaluated literature that was recommended by the experts that addresses the responses of habitat-forming species to climatic disturbance. Resilience was commonly reported in the expert surveys (80% of experts). Resilience was observed in all ecosystem types and at multiple locations worldwide. The experts and literature cited remaining biogenic habitat, recruitment/connectivity, physical setting, and management of local-scale stressors as most important for resilience. These findings suggest that coastal ecosystems may still hold great potential to persist in the face of climate change and that local- to regional-scale management can help buffer global climatic impacts.

Irrigation decisions for major West Coast crops: Water scarcity and climatic determinants - Olen, Beau; Wu, JunJie; Langpap, Christian (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2016)
This article uses the 2007 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey database developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to assess the impact of water scarcity and climate on irrigation decisions for producers of specialty crops, wheat, and forage crops. We estimate an irrigation management model for major crops in the West Coast (California, Oregon, and Washington), which includes a farm-level equation of irrigated share and crop-specific equations of technology adoption and water application rate (orchard/vineyard, vegetable, wheat, alfalfa, hay, and pasture). We find that economic and physical water scarcity, climate, and extreme weather, such as frost, extreme heat, and drought, significantly impact producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers use sprinkler technologies or additional water applications to mitigate risk of crop damage from extreme weather. Water application rates are least responsive to surface water cost or groundwater well depth for producers of orchard/vineyard. Water supply institutions influence producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers who receive water from federal agencies use higher water application rates and are less likely to adopt water-saving irrigation technologies for some crops. Institutional arrangements, including access to distinct water sources (surface or ground) and whether surface water cost is fee based, also affect the responsiveness of water application rates to changes in surface water cost. The analysis provides valuable information about how producers in irrigated agricultural production systems would respond and adapt to water pricing policies and climate change.
10.1093/ajae/aav036

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 - Oleson, K. W.; Anderson, G. B.; Jones, B.; McGinnis, S. A.; Sanderson, B. (Climatic Change, 2015)
Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and a 15-member ensemble driven by RCP4.5. Significant differences are found between urban and grid cell-average heat/cold wave characteristics. Most notably, urban heat waves for 1981–2005 are more intense than grid cell-average by 2.1 °C (southeast) to 4.6 °C (southwest), while cold waves are less intense. We assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061–2080 when following the lower forcing scenario. Urban heat wave days per year increase from 6 in 1981–2005 to up to 92 (southeast) in RCP8.5. Following RCP4.5 reduces heat wave days by about 50 %. Large avoided impacts are demonstrated for individual communities; e.g., the longest heat wave for Houston in RCP4.5 is 38 days while in RCP8.5 there is one heat wave per year that is longer than a month with some lasting the entire summer. Heat waves also start later in the season in RCP4.5 (earliest are in early May) than RCP8.5 (mid-April), compared to 1981–2005 (late May). In some communities, cold wave events decrease from 2 per year for 1981–2005 to one-in-five year events in RCP4.5 and one-in-ten year events in RCP8.5.

Interactions between urbanization, heat stress, and climate change - Oleson, K. W.; Monaghan, A.; Wilhelmi, O.; Barlage, M.; Brunsell, N.; Feddema, J.; Hu, L.; Steinhoff, D. F. (Climatic Change, 2015)

Anthropogenic and natural influences on record 2016 marine heat waves - Oliver, Eric C. J.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018)

Declining resilience of ecosystem functions under biodiversity loss - Oliver, Tom H.; Isaac, Nick J. B.; August, Tom A.; Woodcock, Ben A.; Roy, David B.; Bullock, James M. (Nature Communications, 2015)

Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: The view from applied anthropology - Oliver-Smith, Anthony (Human Organization, 2013)

Ocean futures under ocean acidification, marine protection, and changing fishing pressures explored using a worldwide suite of ecosystem models - Olsen, Erik; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Ainsworth, Cameron; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Girardin, Raphael; Eide, Cecilie H.; Ihde, Thomas F.; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Johnson, Kelli F.; Savina-Rolland, Marie; et al. (Frontiers in Marine Science, 2018)
Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of the ocean considers all impacts on and uses of marine and coastal systems. In recent years, there has been a heightened interest in EBM tools that allow testing of alternative management options and help identify tradeoffs among human uses. End-to-end ecosystem modelling frameworks that consider a wide range of management options are a means to provide integrated solutions to the complex ocean management problems encountered in EBM. Here, we leverage the global advances in ecosystem modelling to explore common opportunities and challenges for ecosystem-based management, including changes in ocean acidification, spatial management, and fishing pressure across eight Atlantis (atlantis.cmar.csiro.au) end-to-end ecosystem models. These models represent marine ecosystems from the tropics to the arctic, varying in size, ecology, and management regimes, using a three-dimensional, spatially-explicit structure parametrized for each system. Results suggest stronger impacts from ocean acidification and marine protected areas than from altering fishing pressure, both in terms of guild-level (i.e., aggregations of similar species or groups) biomass and in terms of indicators of ecological and fishery structure. Effects of ocean acidification were typically negative (reducing biomass), while MPAs led to both 'winners' and 'losers' at the level of particular species (or functional groups). Changing fishing pressure (doubling or halving) had smaller effects on the species guilds or ecosystem indicators than either OA or MPAs. Compensatory effects within guilds led to weaker average effects at the guild level than the species or group level. The impacts and tradeoffs implied by these future scenarios are highly relevant as ocean governance shifts focus from single-sector objectives (e.g., sustainable levels of individual fished stocks) to taking into account competing industrial sectors' objectives (e.g., simultaneous spatial management of energy, shipping, and fishing) while at the same time grappling with compounded impacts of global climate change (e.g., ocean acidification and warming).
Keywords: ecosystem-based management,Fisheries Management,ocean acidification,marine protected areas,Atlantis ecosystem model

Adapting Infrastructure and Civil Engineering Practice to a Changing Climate - Olsen, J. Rolf (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2015)
Sponsored by the Committee on Technical Advancement of ASCE Adapting Infrastructure and Civil Engineering Practice to a Changing Climate presents an accurate discussion of the potential significance of climate change to engineering practice. Although considerable evidence indicates that the climate is changing, significant uncertainty exists regarding the location, timing, and magnitude of this change over the lifetime of infrastructure. Practicing engineers are faced with the dilemma of balancing future needs for engineered infrastructure with the risks posed by the effects of climate change on long-term engineering projects. The gap between climate science and engineering practice somehow must be bridged. This report identifies the technical requirements and civil engineering challenges raised by adaptation to a changing climate. Topics include: review of climate science for engineering practice; incorporating climate science into engineering practice; civil engineering sectors that might be affected by climate change; needs for research, development, and demonstration projects; and summary, conclusions, and recommendations. Three appendixes illustrate different engineering approaches to assessing or preparing for climate change. Practitioners, researchers, educators, and students of civil engineering, as well as government officials and allied professionals, will be fascinated by this discussion of the trade-offs between the expenses of increasing system reliability and the potential costs and consequences of failure to future generations.

Workshop on Nonstationarity, Hydrologic Frequency Analysis, and Water Management [Boulder, CO] - Olsen, J. Rolf; Kiang, Julie; Waskom, Reagan (Colorado State University, Colorado Water Institute, 2010)

Impact of levee breaches, flooding, and land scouring on soil productivity - Olson, Kenneth; Matthews, Jeffrey; Morton, Lois Wright; Sloan, John (Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2015)

Ecoregions of the conterminous United States - Omernik, James M. (Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1987)
Keywords: Key Words: ecoregions, ecosystems, cartographic analysis, resource management, regional geography

Hawaii Drought Plan: 2017 Update - One World One Water (State of Hawaii, Department of Land and Natural Resources, 2017)

Effects of Global Warming on Trout and Salmon in U.S. Streams - O'Neal, Kirkman (Defenders of Wildlife, 2002)

Icefield-to-ocean linkages across the northern Pacific coastal temperate rainforest ecosystem - O'Neel, Shad; Hood, Eran; Bidlack, Allison L.; Fleming, Sean W.; Arimitsu, Mayumi L.; Arendt, Anthony; Burgess, Evan; Sergeant, Christopher J.; Beaudreau, Anne H.; Timm, Kristin; Hayward, Gregory D.; Reynolds, Joel H.; et al. (BioScience, 2015)

Adaptation pathways: Ecoregion and land ownership influences on climate adaptation decision-making in forest management - Ontl, Todd A.; Swanston, Chris; Brandt, Leslie A.; Butler, Patricia R.; D’Amato, Anthony W.; Handler, Stephen D.; Janowiak, Maria K.; Shannon, P. Danielle (Climatic Change, 2018)
Climate adaptation planning and implementation are likely to increase rapidly within the forest sector not only as climate continues to change but also as we intentionally learn from real-world examples. We sought to better understand how adaptation is being incorporated in land management decision-making across diverse land ownership types in the Midwest by evaluating project-level adaptation plans from a suite of forest management projects developed through the Climate Change Response Framework. We used quantitative content analysis to evaluate 44 adaptation-planning documents developed through the Framework’s Adaptation Workbook within two ecoregional provinces of the Midwest. This approach was used to assess the components of adaptation planning, including the resources that adaptation actions targeted within planning documents, the climate changes and impacts of concern, and the adaptation strategies managers identified. Analyses of adaptation plans show that the most frequent climate changes and impacts of concern included alterations in the amount and timing of precipitation, increased vegetation moisture stress, and forest pest and pathogen impacts. Individual projects identified a diversity of adaptation options, rather than focusing singly on actions that aimed to resist climate impacts, enhance resilience, or transition systems. Multivariate analyses indicate that ecoregion and land ownership influenced adaptation planning, while the type of resources and the climate change impacts managers were concerned with were significantly correlated with the adaptation strategies selected during planning. This finding reinforces the idea that one-size-fits-all guidance on adaptation will be insufficient for land managers. Perceptions of relevant climate impacts differ based on regional and ownership contexts, which naturally leads to differences in preferred adaptation actions.

Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities - Oppenheimer, M.; Campos, M.; Warren, R.; Birkmann, J.; Luber, G.; O’Neill, B.; Takahashi, K. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 2014)

Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change - Oppenheimer, Michael; Little, Christopher M.; Cooke, Roger M. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Climate and Health Vulnerability Assessment - Oregon Health Authority (Oregon Climate and Health Program, 2015)

Oregon ESSENCE Hazard Report - Oregon Health Authority (Oregon Health Authority, 2018)

Heart Disease, Stroke and Diabetes in Oregon: 2013 - Oregon Heart Disease and Stroke and Diabetes Prevention Programs (Oregon Health Authority, 2014)

[Establish] Task Force on Drought Emergency Response as nonlegislative task force - Oregon Legislative Assembly (2016)

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe - O'Reilly, Catherine M.; Sharma, Sapna; Gray, Derek K.; Hampton, Stephanie E.; Read, Jordan S.; Rowley, Rex J.; Schneider, Philipp; Lenters, John D.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Straile, Dietmar; et al. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: lakes climate change temperature 0746 Lakes 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change 1807 Climate impacts 4942 Limnology

The predominance of post-wildfire erosion in the long-term denudation of the Valles Caldera, New Mexico - Orem, Caitlin A.; Pelletier, Jon D. (Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface, 2016)
Keywords: post-wildfire erosion cosmogenic isotopes Valles Caldera lidar 1824 Geomorphology: general 1815 Erosion 4302 Geological

Soil fertility limits carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems in a CO2-enriched atmosphere - Oren, Ram; Ellsworth, David S.; Johnsen, Kurt H.; Phillips, Nathan; Ewers, Brent E.; Maier, Chris; Schafer, Karina V. R.; McCarthy, Heather; Hendrey, George; McNulty, Steven G.; Katul, Gabriel G. (Nature, 2001)
10.1038/35078064

Introduction to special section: The ocean in a high‐CO2 world - Orr, James C.; Pantoja, Silvio; Pörtner, Hans‐Otto (Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2005)

Contemporary California Indians, oaks, and sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum) - Ortiz, Beverly R. (Sixth Symposium on Oak Woodlands: Today's Challenges, Tomorrow's Opportunities, 2008)
General Technical Report PSW-GTR-217

Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat? - Ortiz, R.; Sayre, K.D.; Govaerts, B.; Gupta, R.; Subbarao, G.V.; Ban, T.; Hodson, D.; Dixon, J.M.; Iván Ortiz-Monasterio, J.; Reynolds, M. (Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2008)

Assessing climate vulnerabilities and adaptive strategies for resilient beef and dairy operations in the tropics - Ortiz-Colón, Guillermo; Fain, Stephen J.; Parés, Isabel K.; Curbelo-Rodríguez, Jaime; Jiménez-Cabán, Esbal; Pagán-Morales, Melvin; Gould, William A. (Climatic Change, 2018)
Cattle ranchers and dairy farmers operating throughout many tropical regions are experiencing major challenges associated with climate change such as higher incidence of heat stress and drought. These effects can result in reduced productivity of rangeland, shortage of nutritional feed, increased heat stress on animals, and high energy costs for cooling. High temperatures and resultant heat stress reduce animal productivity and increase the proliferation and survival of parasites and disease pathogens. Warming reduces the ability of dairy cattle to produce milk and gain weight and can also lower conception rates. This paper reviews research from the Caribbean on heat tolerant traits in bovine and presents evidence that introducing a “slick hair” gene into Holstein cows by crossbreeding with Senepols may increase thermo-tolerance and productivity. As in other parts of the tropics, principal cattle breeds in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands have been largely introduced from temperate regions. Research indicates these animals may be poorly adapted to rising temperatures, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to chronic heat stress and reduced productivity. Adaptive practices have been developed in breeding and pasture management programs including selection for more heat-resistant genotypes, silvopasturing and crop diversification in forage production, and optimizing facilities and practices to reduce heat stress. Given the nature of climate vulnerability, an integrated approach to adaptation will likely have the greatest success in reducing future risk for producers.

Sioux Reservation Struggling after Winter Storms - Ortman, Wayne (Associated Press wire story, 2010)

Arctic Shipping – Commercial Opportunities and Challenges - Ørts Hansen, Carsten; Grønsedt, Peter; Lindstrøm Graversen, Christian; Hendriksen, Christian (Copenhagen Business School, CBS Maritime, 2016)
ISBN 978-87-93262-03-4

Delayed coral recovery in a warming ocean - Osborne, Kate; Thompson, Angus A.; Cheal, Alistair J.; Emslie, Michael J.; Johns, Kerryn A.; Jonker, Michelle J.; Logan, Murray; Miller, Ian R.; Sweatman, Hugh P. A. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Climate change threatens coral reefs across the world. Intense bleaching has caused dramatic coral mortality in many tropical regions in recent decades, but less obvious chronic effects of temperature and other stressors can be equally threatening to the long‐term persistence of diverse coral‐dominated reef systems. Coral reefs persist if coral recovery rates equal or exceed average rates of mortality. While mortality from acute destructive events is often obvious and easy to measure, estimating recovery rates and investigating the factors that influence them requires long‐term commitment. Coastal development is increasing in many regions, and sea surface temperatures are also rising. The resulting chronic stresses have predictable, adverse effects on coral recovery, but the lack of consistent long‐term data sets has prevented measurement of how much coral recovery rates are actually changing. Using long‐term monitoring data from 47 reefs spread over 10 degrees of latitude on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we used a modified Gompertz equation to estimate coral recovery rates following disturbance. We compared coral recovery rates in two periods: 7 years before and 7 years after an acute and widespread heat stress event on the GBR in 2002. From 2003 to 2009, there were few acute disturbances in the region, allowing us to attribute the observed shortfall in coral recovery rates to residual effects of acute heat stress plus other chronic stressors. Compared with the period before 2002, the recovery of fast‐growing Acroporidae and of “Other” slower growing hard corals slowed after 2002, doubling the time taken for modest levels of recovery. If this persists, recovery times will be increasing at a time when acute disturbances are predicted to become more frequent and intense. Our study supports the need for management actions to protect reefs from locally generated stresses, as well as urgent global action to mitigate climate change.

25,000 Insured Ethiopian Farmers Receive Payments for El Niño Droughts - Osgood, Daniel (International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI): News, 2016)

Mangrove expansion and contraction at a poleward range limit: Climate extremes and land-ocean temperature gradients - Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Hall, Courtney T.; Brumfield, Marisa D.; Dugas, Jason L.; Jones, William R. (Ecology, 2017)
Keywords: Avicennia germinans climate change climate extremes coastal wetland ecological threshold freeze events Louisiana mangrove range contraction range expansion range limit temperature

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: Salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States - Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas; Day, Richard H.; Doyle, Thomas W. (Global Change Biology, 2013)
Keywords: Avicennia germinans coastal wetlands ecological thresholds extreme events foundation species mangrove forest range expansion salt marsh vulnerability assessment winter climate change

Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change - Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Gabler, Christopher A.; Stagg, Camille L.; Grace, James B. (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Keywords: climate change climate gradient coastal wetlands ecological threshold ecological transition foundation species mangrove salt flat salt marsh vulnerability assessment

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests - Osland, Michael J.; Feher, Laura C.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Grace, James B.; Rogers, Kerrylee (Ecological Monographs, 2017)
Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate–mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range-limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west-central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semiarid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate–mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global- and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.
Keywords: Rainfall Temperature climate change distribution abundance climate gradients climatic drivers climatic thresholds ecological thresholds mangrove forests range limit species richness

Characteristics of the recent warming of permafrost in Alaska - Osterkamp, T. E. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2007)
Keywords: permafrost borehole temperatures climate warming thawing thermokarst monitoring 0702 Permafrost 0706 Active layer 0708 Thermokarst 0768 Thermal regime 0774 Dynamics

Climate change and Ixodes tick-borne diseases of humans - Ostfeld, Richard S.; Brunner, Jesse L. (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2015)
The evidence that climate warming is changing the distribution of Ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit is reviewed and evaluated. The primary approaches are either phenomenological, which typically assume that climate alone limits current and future distributions, or mechanistic, asking which tick-demographic parameters are affected by specific abiotic conditions. Both approaches have promise but are severely limited when applied separately. For instance, phenomenological approaches (e.g. climate envelope models) often select abiotic variables arbitrarily and produce results that can be hard to interpret biologically. On the other hand, although laboratory studies demonstrate strict temperature and humidity thresholds for tick survival, these limits rarely apply to field situations. Similarly, no studies address the influence of abiotic conditions on more than a few life stages, transitions or demographic processes, preventing comprehensive assessments. Nevertheless, despite their divergent approaches, both mechanistic and phenomenological models suggest dramatic range expansions of Ixodes ticks and tick-borne disease as the climate warms. The predicted distributions, however, vary strongly with the models' assumptions, which are rarely tested against reasonable alternatives. These inconsistencies, limited data about key tick-demographic and climatic processes and only limited incorporation of non-climatic processes have weakened the application of this rich area of research to public health policy or actions. We urge further investigation of the influence of climate on vertebrate hosts and tick-borne pathogen dynamics. In addition, testing model assumptions and mechanisms in a range of natural contexts and comparing their relative importance as competing models in a rigorous statistical framework will significantly advance our understanding of how climate change will alter the distribution, dynamics and risk of tick-borne disease.

Estimating the mortality effect of the July 2006 California heat wave - Ostro, B.D.; Roth, L.A.; Green, R.S.; Basu, R. (Environmental Research, 2009)

Tragedy of the commons - Ostrom, Elinor (The new Palgrave dictionary of economics, 2008)

The complex relationship between climate and sugar maple health: Climate change implications in Vermont for a key northern hardwood species - Oswald, Evan M.; Pontius, Jennifer; Rayback, Shelly A.; Schaberg, Paul G.; Wilmot, Sandra H.; Dupigny-Giroux, Lesley-Ann (Forest Ecology and Management, 2018)
Keywords: Climate change Crown condition Crown health Forest decline Forest management

Methodology for integrating adaptation to climate change into the transportation planning process - Oswald, Michelle Renee; McNeil, Sue (Public Works Management & Policy, 2013)
Strong scientific evidence supports the potential for serious global impacts due to climate change. While mitigation efforts are essential to slowing the threat of climate change, adaptation practices to build resilience to and protection from environmental impacts should be accelerated. This paper presents a methodology to integrate adaptation efforts into the long range transportation planning (LRTP) process, and describes a tool, Climate Change Adaptation Tool for Transportation (CCATT) to assist planners. Using a decision theoretic approach that recognizes uncertainty, climate change scenarios are evaluated based on the LRTP timeline. Since climate change impacts vary geographically, the methodology is intended to be repeatable, relevant, and regionally applicable. A case study is developed for the Mid-Atlantic region based on a Metropolitan Planning Organization in northern Delaware. The case study results reveal the effectiveness of the methodology to a real world application and the need for transportation adaptation in response to climate change.
Keywords: transportation planning,climate change,adaptation,decision support,uncertainty

Forest Resources of the United States, 2012: A Technical Document Supporting the Forest Service 2010 Update of the RPA Assessment - Oswalt, Sonja N.; Smith, W. Brad; Miles, Patrick D.; Pugh, Scott A. (USDA, Forest Service, Washington Office, 2014)

Basin-scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) - Otero, Jaime; L'Abée-Lund, Jan Henning; Castro-Santos, Ted; Leonardsson, Kjell; Storvik, Geir O.; Jonsson, Bror; Dempson, Brian; Russell, Ian C.; Jensen, Arne J.; Baglinière, Jean-Luc; Dionne, Mélanie; Armstrong, John D.; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Keywords: Atlantic salmon freshwater conditions North Atlantic phenology sea surface temperature smolt emigration

Dawes Act and the Allotment of Indian Lands - Otis, D.S. (University of Oklahoma Press, 1973)

Flash droughts: A review and assessment of the challenges imposed by rapid onset droughts in the United States - Otkin, Jason A.; Svoboda, Mark; Hunt, Eric D.; Ford, Trent W.; Anderson, Martha C.; Hain, Christopher; Basara, Jeffrey B. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018)
The term “flash drought” is currently used in an ambiguous manner in the scientific literature. We recommend that these climate features should be identified based on how rapidly they intensify.

Responses of pink salmon to CO2-induced aquatic acidification - Ou, Michelle; Hamilton, Trevor J.; Eom, Junho; Lyall, Emily M.; Gallup, Joshua; Jiang, Amy; Lee, Jason; Close, David A.; Yun, Sang-Seon; Brauner, Colin J. (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

The Outdoor Recreation Economy - Outdoor Industry Association (Outdoor Industry Association, 2017)

Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems - Ouyang, Min (Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2014)
Keywords: Critical infrastructure systems (CISs) Interdependencies Empirical approach Agent System dynamics Economic theory Network Resilience

Resilience assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems: With a focus on joint restoration modeling and analysis - Ouyang, Min; Wang, Zhenghua (Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2015)
Keywords: Infrastructure systems Interdependencies Resilience assessment Cascading failures Restoration Genetic algorithm

Air Temperature [in Arctic Report Card 2014] - Overland, J.; Hanna, E.; Hanssen-Bauer, I.; Kim, S.-J.; Walsh, J.; Wang, M.; Bhatt, U. (2014)

Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic - Overland, James E.; Dethloff, Klaus; Francis, Jennifer A.; Hall, Richard J.; Hanna, Edward; Kim, Seong-Joong; Screen, James A.; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Vihma, Timo (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales - Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C. (Earth's Future, 2014)
Keywords: Arctic Climate Change Mitigation Sea ice 1621 Cryospheric change 1610 Atmosphere 1626 Global climate models 3349 Polar meteorology

A school-based assessment of secondary stressors and adolescent mental health 18 months post-Katrina - Overstreet, Stacy; Salloum, Alison; Badour, Christal (Journal of School Psychology, 2010)
Keywords: Disasters Secondary stressors PTSD Adolescents

The Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan - OWRB (Oklahoma Water Resources Board, 2012)

Open Spaces: 2016 Annual Report - Ozaukee Washington Land Trust (Ozaukee Washington Land Trust, 2016)

State–space mark–recapture estimates reveal a recent decline in abundance of North Atlantic right whales - Pace, Richard M.; Corkeron, Peter J.; Kraus, Scott D. (Ecology and Evolution, 2017)
North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis Müller 1776) present an interesting problem for abundance and trend estimation in marine wildlife conservation. They are long lived, individually identifiable, highly mobile, and one of the rarest of cetaceans. Individuals are annually resighted at different rates, primarily due to varying stay durations among several principal habitats within a large geographic range. To date, characterizations of abundance have been produced that use simple accounting procedures with differing assumptions about mortality. To better characterize changing abundance of North Atlantic right whales between 1990 and 2015, we adapted a state–space formulation with Jolly-Seber assumptions about population entry (birth and immigration) to individual resighting histories and fit it using empirical Bayes methodology. This hierarchical model included accommodation for the effect of the substantial individual capture heterogeneity. Estimates from this approach were only slightly higher than published accounting procedures, except for the most recent years (when recapture rates had declined substantially). North Atlantic right whales' abundance increased at about 2.8% per annum from median point estimates of 270 individuals in 1990 to 483 in 2010, and then declined to 2015, when the final estimate was 458 individuals (95% credible intervals 444–471). The probability that the population's trajectory post-2010 was a decline was estimated at 99.99%. Of special concern was the finding that reduced survival rates of adult females relative to adult males have produced diverging abundance trends between sexes. Despite constraints in recent years, both biological (whales' distribution changing) and logistical (fewer resources available to collect individual photo-identifications), it is still possible to detect this relatively recent, small change in the population's trajectory. This is thanks to the massive dataset of individual North Atlantic right whale identifications accrued over the past three decades. Photo-identification data provide biological information that allows more informed inference on the status of this species.

Majuro Declaration for Climate Leadership [Annex 1 and 2 of the 44th Forum Communiqué] - Pacific Islands Forum (Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, 2013)

Survey Report: User Input for Next Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment - Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) (2016)
(Pacific RISA)

Seafood: The sustainable resource [special report] - Pacific Seafood Processors Association (Alaska Inc., 2016)

Assessing species vulnerability to climate change - Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Species’ traits influenced their response to recent climate change - Pacifici, Michela; Visconti, Piero; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Watson, James E. M.; Cassola, Francesca M; Rondinini, Carlo (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Impacts on human health in the Arctic owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling—The EU ArcRisk project policy outcome - Pacyna, Jozef M.; Cousins, Ian T.; Halsall, Crispin; Rautio, Arja; Pawlak, Janet; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Wilson, Simon; Munthe, John (Environmental Science & Policy, 2015)
Keywords: Contaminant cycling Climate change Human health effects POPs Mercury The Arctic population

Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary: February 2005 - Padgett, Gary (Australian Severe Weather, 2005)

Bridge damage and repair costs from Hurricane Katrina - Padgett, Jamie; DesRoches, Reginald; Nielson, Bryant; Yashinsky, Mark; Kwon, Oh-Sung; Burdette, Nick; Tavera, Ed (Journal of Bridge Engineering, 2008)

Why were the 2015/2016 and 1997/1998 extreme El Niños different? - Paek, Houk; Yu, Jin-Yi; Qian, Chengcheng (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: extreme El Niño 2015/2016 El Niño 1997/1998 El Niño 4522 ENSO

Mitigating harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a human- and climatically-impacted world - Paerl, Hans W. (Life, 2014)

Blooms like it hot - Paerl, H. W.; Huisman, J. (Science, 2008)
Keywords: phytoplankton communities; microcystis-aeruginosa; cyanobacteria; surface; lake; sea

Climate change: A catalyst for global expansion of harmful cyanobacterial blooms - Paerl, Hans W.; Huisman, Jef (Environmental Microbiology Reports, 2009)

Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century - Pagán, Brianna R.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kendall, Donald R.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Mei, Rui; Pal, Jeremy S. (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. Here we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble modeling approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to Southern California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift towards more rainfall, reduced cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in the frequency and the intensity of both drier conditions and flooding events. The 50 year extreme daily maximum precipitation and runoff events are 1.5–6 times more likely to occur depending on the water supply basin. Simultaneously, a clear deficit in total annual runoff over mountainous snow generating regions like the Sierra Nevada is projected. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from control reservoirs, which may potentially decrease water availability outside of the wet season. Lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with projected climate changes and population increases may leave the area in extended periods of shortages.

Island of Hawaii Whole System Project: Phase I Report - Page, Christina; Bony, Lionel; Schewel, Laura (Rocky Mountain Institute, 2007)

Predicted fire behavior in selected mountain pine beetle infested lodgepole pine - Page, Wesley G.; Jenkins, Michael J. (Forest Science, 2007)

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia - PAGES 2K Consortium (Nature Geoscience, 2013)

Abruptness of cascade failures in power grids - Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio (Scientific Reports, 2014)

Shoreline Movement along the Texas Gulf Coast, 1930’s to 2012 - Paine, Jeffrey G.; Caudle, Tiffany L.; Andrews, John R. (Bureau of Economic Geology, University of Texas, 2014)

Shoreline and sand storage dynamics from annual airborne LIDAR surveys, Texas Gulf Coast - Paine, Jeffrey G.; Caudle, Tiffany L.; Andrews, John R. (Journal of Coastal Research, 2017)
Keywords: Coastal change,sediment budget,beach profiles,storm erosion and recovery

Global threat to agriculture from invasive species - Paini, Dean R.; Sheppard, Andy W.; Cook, David C.; De Barro, Paul J.; Worner, Susan P.; Thomas, Matthew B. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
A key scientific and policy challenge relating to invasive species at the world level is to understand and predict which countries are most vulnerable to the threat of invasive species. We present an analysis of the threat from almost 1,300 agricultural invasive species to the world (124 countries). The analysis examines the global distribution of these species, international trade flows, and each country’s main agricultural production crops, to determine potential invasion and impact of these invasive species. We found the most vulnerable countries to be from Sub-Saharan Africa, while those countries representing the greatest threat to the rest of the world (given the invasive species they already contain, and their trade patterns) to be the United States and China.Invasive species present significant threats to global agriculture, although how the magnitude and distribution of the threats vary between countries and regions remains unclear. Here, we present an analysis of almost 1,300 known invasive insect pests and pathogens, calculating the total potential cost of these species invading each of 124 countries of the world, as well as determining which countries present the greatest threat to the rest of the world given their trading partners and incumbent pool of invasive species. We find that countries vary in terms of potential threat from invasive species and also their role as potential sources, with apparently similar countries sometimes varying markedly depending on specifics of agricultural commodities and trade patterns. Overall, the biggest agricultural producers (China and the United States) could experience the greatest absolute cost from further species invasions. However, developing countries, in particular, Sub-Saharan African countries, appear most vulnerable in relative terms. Furthermore, China and the United States represent the greatest potential sources of invasive species for the rest of the world. The analysis reveals considerable scope for ongoing redistribution of known invasive pests and highlights the need for international cooperation to slow their spread.

One meter topobathymetric digital elevation model for Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, 1944 to 2016 - Palaseanu-Lovejoy, M.; Poppenga, S.K.; Danielson, J.J; Tyler, D.J.; Gesch, D.B.; Kottermair, M.; Jalandoni, A.; Carlson, E.; Thatcher, C.; Barbee, M (U.S. Geological Survey, 2017)

The nature and impacts of the July 1999 heat wave in the midwestern United States: Learning from the lessons of 1995 - Palecki, M.A.; Changnon, S.A.; Kunkel, K.E. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2001)

The impact of domestic rainwater harvesting systems in storm water runoff mitigation at the urban block scale - Palla, A.; Gnecco, I.; La Barbera, P. (Journal of Environmental Management, 2017)
Keywords: Hydrologic performance SWMM Rainwater harvesting Source control Storage tank Storm water

2014 Assessment Update Report of the Gulf of Maine Atlantic Cod Stock - Palmer, Michael C. (NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service, 2014)

Separating effects of changes in atmospheric composition, climate and land-use on carbon sequestration of US Mid-Atlantic temperate forests - Pan, Y.; Birdsey, R.; Hom, J.; McCullough, K. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2009)

A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests - Pan, Y.; Birdsey, R. A.; Fang, J.; Houghton, R.; Kauppi, P. E.; Kurz, W. A.; Phillips, O. L.; Shvidenko, A.; Lewis, S. L.; Canadell, J. G.; Ciais, P.; Jackson, R. B.; et al. (Science, 2011)
Keywords: Atmosphere; Biomass; Carbon/analysis; Carbon Dioxide/analysis; *Carbon Sequestration; Climate Change; Conservation of Natural Resources; *Ecosystem; *Trees; Tropical Climate

Uncertainty in future soil carbon trends at a central US site under an ensemble of GCM scenario climates - Pan, Z.; Andrade, D.; Segal, M.; Wimberley, J.; McKinney, N.; Takle, E. (Ecological Modelling, 2010)

Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole” - Pan, Z.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Gutowski, W.J., Jr.; Anderson, C.J.; Segal, M. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2004)

Intermodel variability and mechanism attribution of central and southeastern U.S. anomalous cooling in the twentieth century as simulated by CMIP5 models - Pan, Zaitao; Liu, Xiaodong; Kumar, Sanjiv; Gao, Zhiqiu; Kinter, James (Journal of Climate, 2013)
Some parts of the United States, especially the southeastern and central portion, cooled by up to 2°C during the twentieth century, while the global mean temperature rose by 0.6°C (0.76°C from 1901 to 2006). Studies have suggested that the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) may be responsible for this cooling, termed the “warming hole” (WH), while other works reported that regional-scale processes such as the low-level jet and evapotranspiration contribute to the abnormity. In phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), only a few of the 53 simulations could reproduce the cooling. This study analyzes newly available simulations in experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 28 models, totaling 175 ensemble members. It was found that 1) only 19 out of 100 all-forcing historical ensemble members simulated negative temperature trend (cooling) over the southeast United States, with 99 members underpredicting the cooling rate in the region; 2) the missing of cooling in the models is likely due to the poor performance in simulating the spatial pattern of the cooling rather than the temporal variation, as indicated by a larger temporal correlation coefficient than spatial one between the observation and simulations; 3) the simulations with greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing only produced strong warming in the central United States that may have compensated the cooling; and 4) the all-forcing historical experiment compared with the natural-forcing-only experiment showed a well-defined WH in the central United States, suggesting that land surface processes, among others, could have contributed to the cooling in the twentieth century.
Keywords: Climate change,Climate prediction,Climate variability,Model comparison,Model evaluation/performance

Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification - Pandolfi, John M.; Connolly, Sean R.; Marshall, Dustin J.; Cohen, Anne L. (Science, 2011)
Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest. Reducing uncertainty in projecting coral reef futures requires improved understanding of past responses to rapid climate change; physiological responses to interacting factors, such as temperature, acidification, and nutrients; and the costs and constraints imposed by acclimation and adaptation.
Keywords: carbon dioxide Animals Biological Evolution global warming Conservation of Natural Resources Ecosystem Biodiversity Anthozoa Seawater Oceans and Seas Calcification, Physiologic Forecasting Hydrogen-Ion Concentration Symbiosis

Nature-based solutions to promote human resilience and wellbeing in cities during increasingly hot summers - Panno, Angelo; Carrus, Giuseppe; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Mariani, Luigi; Sanesi, Giovanni (Environmental Research, 2017)
Keywords: Nature-based solutions Global warming Cognitive resources Urban heat island Climate change Ego depletion Wellbeing

Situation awareness in power systems: Theory, challenges and applications - Panteli, Mathaios; Kirschen, Daniel S. (Electric Power Systems Research, 2015)
Keywords: Control center Decision-making Power systems Situation awareness Power System Observability Power System Operation

The grid: Stronger, bigger, smarter? Presenting a conceptual framework of power system resilience - Panteli, M.; Mancarella, P. (IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, 2015)
Keywords: critical infrastructures power grids power system reliability critical power infrastructures power grid power system resilience Electricity supply industry Meteorology Power distribution planning Resilience

Climate change, justice, and adaptation among African American communities in the Chesapeake Bay region - Paolisso, Michael; Douglas, Ellen; Enrici, Ashley; Kirshen, Paul; Watson, Chris; Ruth, Matthias (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2012)
In this paper, the authors present results from a study of climate change and community adaptation, focusing on two African American communities on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay. These two communities are representative of small, resource-poor communities that are particularly prone to increased flooding, storms, and erosion accompanying climate change. The authors frame their research within a focus on distributive and procedural justice, including considerations of the role of adaptation capacity and vulnerability. They use methods from cognitive–environmental anthropology and psychometrics to ground a participatory and multidisciplinary approach that emphasizes community participation and the sharing of scientific and program information on climate change and adaptation. Their results suggest that community members have a holistic understanding of climate change, recognize a wide range of potential community and individual impacts, face specific vulnerabilities, and are organized through their churches to engage in efforts to reduce the impacts of increased flooding and storms on their communities.
Keywords: Coastlines,Estuaries,Communications/decision making,Flood events,Local effects,Societal impacts

Climate Change Implications for the Quileute and Hoh Tribes of Washington: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Assessing Climatic Disruptions to Coastal Indigenous Communities - Papiez, Chelsie (The Evergreen State College, 2009)

Climate Change, Supply Chain Management and Enterprise Adaptation: Implications of Global Warming on the Economy - Pappis, Costas P. (IGI Global, 2010)

Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: Implications for interpreting population trends - Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J. (PLOS ONE, 2014)
Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as species experience changes in distribution in response to climate change.

Colonisation, racism and indigenous health - Paradies, Yin (Journal of Population Research, 2016)
In settler-colonies such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United States, the historical impacts of colonisation on the health, social, economic and cultural experiences of Indigenous peoples are well documented. However, despite being a commonly deployed trope, there has been scant attention paid to precisely how colonial processes contribute to contemporary disparities in health between indigenous and non-indigenous peoples in these nation-states. After considering pertinent issues in defining indigeneity, this paper focuses on operationalising colonisation as a driver of indigenous health, with reference to emerging concepts such as historical trauma. Conceptualisations of coloniality vis-à-vis health and their critiques are then examined alongside the role of racism as an intersecting and overlapping phenomenon. To conclude, approaches to understanding and explaining Indigenous disadvantage are considered alongside the potential of decolonisation, before exploring ramifications for the future of settler-indigenous relations.

Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America - Paradis, A.; Elkinton, J.; Hayhoe, K.; Buonaccorsi, J. (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2008)
Keywords: Adelges tsugae; Climate change; Hemlock; Invasive species; Woolly; adelgid

Mismatch in microbial food webs: Predators but not prey perform better in their local biotic and abiotic conditions - Parain, Elodie C.; Gravel, Dominique; Rohr, Rudolf P.; Bersier, Louis-Félix; Gray, Sarah M. (Ecology and Evolution, 2016)
Keywords: Consumer-resource predator–prey reciprocal-transplant experiment Sarracenia purpurea temperature

Environmental influences on the seasonal distribution of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in the Pacific Northwest of the USA - Paranjpye, Rohinee N.; Nilsson, William B.; Liermann, Martin; Hilborn, Elizabeth D.; George, Barbara J.; Li, Quanlin; Bill, Brian D.; Trainer, Vera L.; Strom, Mark S.; Sandifer, Paul A. (FEMS Microbiology Ecology, 2015)
Populations of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in the environment can be influenced by numerous factors. We assessed the correlation of total (tl+) and potentially virulent (tdh+) V. parahaemolyticus in water with three harmful algal bloom (HAB) genera (Pseudo-nitzschia, Alexandrium and Dinophysis), the abundance of diatoms and dinoflagellates, chlorophyll-a and temperature, salinity and macronutrients at five sites in Washington State from 2008–2009. The variability in V. parahaemolyticus density was explained predominantly by strong seasonal trends where maximum densities occurred in June, 2 months prior to the highest seasonal water temperature. In spite of large geographic differences in temperature, salinity and nutrients, there was little evidence of corresponding differences in V. parahaemolyticus density. In addition, there was no evident relationship between V. parahaemolyticus and indices of HAB genera, perhaps due to a lack of significant HAB events during the sampling period. The only nutrient significantly associated with V. parahaemolyticus density after accounting for the seasonal trend was silicate. This negative relationship may be caused by a shift in cell wall structure for some diatom species to a chitinous substrate preferred by V. parahaemolyticus. Results from our study differ from those in other regions corroborating previous findings that environmental factors that trigger vibrio and HAB events may differ depending on geographic locations. Therefore caution should be used when applying results from one region to another.
10.1093/femsec/fiv121

Direct and indirect effects of episodic frost on plant growth and reproduction in subalpine wildflowers - Pardee, Gabriella L.; Inouye, David W.; Irwin, Rebecca E. (Global Change Biology, 2018)
Frost is an important episodic event that damages plant tissues through the formation of ice crystals at or below freezing temperatures. In montane regions, where climate change is expected to cause earlier snow melt but may not change the last frost‐free day of the year, plants that bud earlier might be directly impacted by frost through damage to flower buds and reproductive structures. However, the indirect effects of frost mediated through changes in plant–pollinator interactions have rarely been explored. We examined the direct and pollinator‐mediated indirect effects of frost on three wildflower species in southwestern Colorado, USA, Delphinium barbeyi (Ranunculaceae), Erigeron speciosus (Asteraceae), and Polemonium foliosissimum (Polemoniaceae), by simulating moderate (−1 to −5°C) frost events in early spring in plants in situ. Subsequently, we measured plant growth, and upon flowering measured flower morphology and phenology. Throughout the flowering season, we monitored pollinator visitation and collected seeds to measure plant reproduction. We found that frost had species‐specific direct and indirect effects. Frost had direct effects on two of the three species. Frost significantly reduced flower size, total flowers produced, and seed production of Erigeron. Furthermore, frost reduced aboveground plant survival and seed production for Polemonium. However, we found no direct effects of frost on Delphinium. When we considered the indirect impacts of frost mediated through changes in pollinator visitation, one species, Erigeron, incurred indirect, negative effects of frost on plant reproduction through changes in floral traits and pollinator visitation, along with direct effects. Overall, we found that flowering plants exhibited species‐specific direct and pollinator‐mediated indirect responses to frost, thus suggesting that frost may play an important role in affecting plant communities under climate change.

Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: Weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission - Parham, Paul E.; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K.; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J.; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E.; et al. (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2015)

Regional variations in potential plant habitat changes in response to multiple global warming scenarios - Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Jinwon (Journal of Climate, 2015)

Changes in respiratory and non-respiratory symptoms in occupants of a large office building over a period of moisture damage remediation attempts - Park, Ju-Hyeong; Cho, Sook Ja; White, Sandra K.; Cox-Ganser, Jean M. (PLOS ONE, 2018)
There is limited information on the natural history of building occupants’ health in relation to attempts to remediate moisture damage. We examined changes in respiratory and non-respiratory symptoms in 1,175 office building occupants over seven years with multiple remediation attempts. During each of four surveys, we categorized participants using a severity score: 0 = asymptomatic; 1 = mild, symptomatic in the last 12 months, but not frequently in the last 4 weeks; 2 = severe, symptomatic at least once weekly in the last 4 weeks. Building-related symptoms were defined as improving away from the building. We used random intercept models adjusted for demographics, smoking, building tenure, and microbial exposures to estimate temporal changes in the odds of building-related symptoms or severity scores independent of the effect of microbial exposures. Trend analyses of combined mild/severe symptoms showed no changes in the odds of respiratory symptoms but significant improvement in non-respiratory symptoms over time. Separate analyses showed increases in the odds of severe respiratory symptoms (odds ratio/year = 1.15‒1.16, p-values<0.05) and severity scores (0.02/year, p-values<0.05) for wheezing and shortness of breath on exertion, due to worsening of participants in the mild symptom group. For non-respiratory symptoms, we found no changes in the odds of severe symptoms but improvement in severity scores (-0.04‒-0.01/year, p-values<0.05) and the odds for mild fever and chills, excessive fatigue, headache, and throat symptoms (0.65–0.79/year, p-values<0.05). Our study suggests that after the onset of respiratory and severe non-respiratory symptoms associated with dampness/mold, remediation efforts might not be effective in improving occupants’ health.

Temporal variability in summertime bottom hypoxia in shallow areas of Mobile Bay, Alabama - Park, Kyeong; Kim, Choong-Ki; Schroeder, William W. (Estuaries and Coasts, 2007)
This paper addresses temporal variability in bottom hypoxia in broad shallow areas of Mobile Bay, Alabama. Time-series data collected in the summer of 2004 from one station (mean depth of 4 m) exhibit bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) variations associated with various time scales of hours to days. Despite a large velocity shear, stratification was strong enough to suppress vertical mixing most of the time. Bottom DO was closely related to the vertical salinity gradient (ΔS). Hypoxia seldom occurred when ΔS (over 2.5 m) was <2 psu and occurred almost all the time when ΔS was >8 psu in the absence of extreme events like hurricanes. Oxygen balance between vertical mixing and total oxygen demand was considered for bottom water from which oxygen demand and diffusive oxygen flux were estimated. The estimated decay rates at 20°C ranging between 0.175–0.322 d−1 and the corresponding oxygen consumption as large as 7.4 g O2 m−2 d−1 fall at the upper limit of previously reported ranges. The diffusive oxygen flux and the corresponding vertical diffusivity estimated for well mixed conditions range between 8.6–9.5 g O2 m−2 d−1 and 2.6–2.9 m2 d−1, respectively. Mobile Bay hypoxia is likely to be associated with a large oxygen demand, supported by both water column and sediment oxygen demands, so that oxygen supply from surface water during destratification events would be quickly exhausted to return to hypoxic conditions within a few hours to days after destratification events are terminated.

Sources of carbonaceous aerosols over the United States and implications for natural visibility - Park, Rokjin J.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Chin, Mian; Martin, Randall V. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2003)
We use a global three-dimensional model (GEOS-CHEM) to better quantify the sources of elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) aerosols in the United States through simulation of year-round observations for 1998 at a network of 45 sites (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE)). Simulation with our best a priori understanding of sources, including global satellite data to constrain fire emissions, captures most of the variance in the observations (R super 2 = 0.84 for EC, 0.67 for OC) with a low bias of 15 percent for EC and 26 percent for OC. Multiple linear regression to fit the IMPROVE data yields best estimates of 1998 U.S. sources of 0.60 Tg year super -1 EC and 0.52 Tg year super -1 OC from fossil fuel; 0.07 Tg year super -1 EC and 0.89 Tg year super -1 OC from biofuel; 0.08 Tg year super -1 EC and 0.60 Tg year super -1 OC from wildfires; and 1.10 Tg year super -1 OC from vegetation. We find that fires in Mexico and Canada contributed 40-70 percent of annual mean natural EC in the United States for 1998 and 20-30 percent of annual mean natural OC. Transpacific transport from Asian pollution sources amounted to less than 10 percent of the natural EC and less than 2 percent of the natural OC; in contrast to ozone, we find that intercontinental transport of anthropogenic carbonaceous aerosols does not enhance significantly the natural background. IMPROVE observations and model simulations for the summer of 1995 show that Canadian fire emissions can produce large events of elevated EC and OC in the southeastern United States. Our best estimates of mean natural concentrations of EC and OC in the United States, using a model simulation with climatological monthly mean fire emissions, are 2-3 times higher than the default values recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for visibility calculations, except for OC in the eastern United States (16 percent lower).

Informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories of transformation - Park, S. E.; Marshall, N. A.; Jakku, E.; Dowd, A. M.; Howden, S. M.; Mendham, E.; Fleming, A. (Global Environmental Change, 2012)
Keywords: Transition management Decision-making Resilience Adaptive capacity Adaptation Action Cycles

Changes in growing season duration and productivity of northern vegetation inferred from long-term remote sensing data - Park, Taejin; Ganguly, Sangram; Tømmervik, Hans; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Høgda, Kjell-Arild; Karlsen, Stein Rune; Brovkin, Victor; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Myneni, Ranga B. (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
Monitoring and understanding climate-induced changes in the boreal and arctic vegetation is critical to aid in prognosticating their future. We used a 33 year (1982–2014) long record of satellite observations to robustly assess changes in metrics of growing season (onset: SOS, end: EOS and length: LOS) and seasonal total gross primary productivity. Particular attention was paid to evaluating the accuracy of these metrics by comparing them to multiple independent direct and indirect growing season and productivity measures. These comparisons reveal that the derived metrics capture the spatio-temporal variations and trends with acceptable significance level (generally p  < 0.05). We find that LOS has lengthened by 2.60 d dec −1 ( p < 0.05) due to an earlier onset of SOS (−1.61 d dec −1 , p < 0.05) and a delayed EOS (0.67 d dec −1 , p < 0.1) at the circumpolar scale over the past three decades. Relatively greater rates of changes in growing season were observed in Eurasia (EA) and in boreal regions than in North America (NA) and the arctic regions. However, this tendency of earlier SOS and delayed EOS was prominent only during the earlier part of the data record (1982–1999). During the later part (2000–2014), this tendency was reversed, i.e. delayed SOS and earlier EOS. As for seasonal total productivity, we find that 42.0% of northern vegetation shows a statistically significant ( p < 0.1) greening trend over the last three decades. This greening translates to a 20.9% gain in productivity since 1982. In contrast, only 2.5% of northern vegetation shows browning, or a 1.2% loss of productivity. These trends in productivity were continuous through the period of record, unlike changes in growing season metrics. Similarly, we find relatively greater increasing rates of productivity in EA and in arctic regions than in NA and the boreal regions. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation during last three decades.

A new daily central England temperature series, 1772–1991 - Parker, D. E.; Legg, T. P.; Folland, C. K. (International Journal of Climatology, 1992)
In 1974 Manley produced a time series of monthly average temperatures representative of central England for 1659–1973. The present paper describes how a series of homogenized daily values representative of the same region has been formed. This series starts in 1772, and is consistent with Manley's monthly average values. Between 1772 and 1876 the daily series is based on a sequence of single stations whose variance has been reduced to counter the artificial increase that results from sampling single locations. For subsequent years, the series has been produced from combinations of as few stations as can reliably represent central England in the manner defined by Manley. We have used the daily series to update Manley's published monthly series in a consistent way. We have evaluated recent urban warming influences at the chosen stations by comparison with nearby rural stations, and have corrected the series from 1974 onwards. The corrections do not (yet) exceed 0.1°C. We present all the monthly data from 1974, along with averages and standard deviations for 1961–1990. We also show sequences of daily central England temperature for sample years. All the daily data are available on request.

Projected changes in cold hardiness zones and suitable overwinter ranges of perennial crops over the United States - Parker, Lauren E.; Abatzoglou, John T. (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
Average annual absolute minimum temperatures (TN n ) provide a means of delineating agriculturally relevant climate zones and are used to define cold hardiness zones (CHZ) by the United States Department of Agriculture. Projected changes in TN n , mean winter minimum temperatures, and CHZs over the conterminous United States (CONUS) were assessed using an ensemble of statistically downscaled daily climate model output through the mid 21st century (2041–2070). Warming of TN n is on average ∼40% greater than that of mean winter minimum temperatures across CONUS with an average climate velocity of 21.4 km decade −1 resulting in widespread shifts in CHZs. These changes enable a geographic expansion of thermally suitable areas for the cultivation of cold-intolerant perennial agriculture including almond, kiwi, and orange crops. Beyond these crops, warming of TN n has broad implications for food security and biotic interactions.

The U.S. Pacific Command response to Super Typhoon Haiyan - Parker, Thomas; Carroll, Sean P.; Sanders, Gregg; King, Jason E.; Chiu, Imes (Joint Force Quarterly, 2016)

Wildland fire limits subsequent fire occurrence - Parks, Sean A.; Miller, Carol; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Baggett, L. Scott; Bird, Benjamin J. (International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2016)
Several aspects of wildland fire are moderated by site- and landscape-level vegetation changes caused by previous fire, thereby creating a dynamic where one fire exerts a regulatory control on subsequent fire. For example, wildland fire has been shown to regulate the size and severity of subsequent fire. However, wildland fire has the potential to influence other properties of subsequent fire. One of those properties – the extent to which a previous wildland fire inhibits new fires from igniting and spreading within its perimeter – is the focus of our study. In four large wilderness study areas in the western United States (US), we evaluated whether or not wildland fire regulated the ignition and spread (hereafter occurrence) of subsequent fire. Results clearly indicate that wildland fire indeed regulates subsequent occurrence of fires ≥ 20 ha in all study areas. We also evaluated the longevity of the regulating effect and found that wildland fire limits subsequent fire occurrence for nine years in the warm/dry study area in the south-western US and over 20 years in the cooler/wetter study areas in the northern Rocky Mountains. Our findings expand upon our understanding of the regulating capacity of wildland fire and the importance of wildland fire in creating and maintaining resilience to future fire events.
Keywords: age-dependence, failure time analysis, fire as a fuel treatment, fire history, hazard analysis, ignition, self-limiting, self-regulation, survival analysis, wilderness.

Plants and climate change: Complexities and surprises - Parmesan, Camille; Hanley, Mick E. (Annals of Botany, 2015)
Background Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) will influence all aspects of plant biology over coming decades. Many changes in wild species have already been well-documented as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, warming climate and changing precipitation regimes. A wealth of available data has allowed the use of meta-analyses to examine plant–climate interactions on more sophisticated levels than before. These analyses have revealed major differences in plant response among groups, e.g. with respect to functional traits, taxonomy, life-history and provenance. Interestingly, these meta-analyses have also exposed unexpected mismatches between theory, experimental, and observational studies.Scope We reviewed the literature on species’ responses to ACC, finding ∼42 % of 4000 species studied globally are plants (primarily terrestrial). We review impacts on phenology, distributions, ecophysiology, regeneration biology, plant–plant and plant–herbivore interactions, and the roles of plasticity and evolution. We focused on apparent deviations from expectation, and highlighted cases where more sophisticated analyses revealed that unexpected changes were, in fact, responses to ACC.Conclusions We found that conventionally expected responses are generally well-understood, and that it is the aberrant responses that are now yielding greater insight into current and possible future impacts of ACC. We argue that inconclusive, unexpected, or counter-intuitive results should be embraced in order to understand apparent disconnects between theory, prediction, and observation. We highlight prime examples from the collection of papers in this Special Issue, as well as general literature. We found use of plant functional groupings/traits had mixed success, but that some underutilized approaches, such as Grime's C/S/R strategies, when incorporated, have improved understanding of observed responses. Despite inherent difficulties, we highlight the need for ecologists to conduct community-level experiments in systems that replicate multiple aspects of ACC. Specifically, we call for development of coordinating experiments across networks of field sites, both natural and man-made.
10.1093/aob/mcv169

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems - Parmesan, C.; Yohe, G. (Nature, 2003)
Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles ( or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Keywords: EGG-LAYING TRENDS; BRITISH BUTTERFLIES; PHENOLOGY; PLANTS; RESPONSES; BIRDS; TIME; TEMPERATURE; ABUNDANCE; MOUNTAIN

Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment - Parris, A.; Bromirski, P.; Burkett, V.; Cayan, D.; Culver, M.; Hall, J.; Horton, R.; Knuuti, K.; Moss, R.; Obeysekera, J.; Sallenger, A.; Weiss, J. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2012)

Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation - Parris, Adam S.; Garfin, Gregg M.; Dow, Kirstin; Meyer, Ryan; Close, Sarah L. (John Wiley & Sons, 2016)

Air quality progress in North American megacities: A review - Parrish, David D.; Singh, Hanwant B.; Molina, Luisa; Madronich, Sasha (Atmospheric Environment, 2011)
Keywords: Air quality Megacities Ozone Particulate matter Pollution

Traditional forest-related knowledge and climate change - Parrotta, John A.; Agnoletti, Mauro (Traditional Forest-Related Knowledge: Sustaining Communities, Ecosystems and Biocultural Diversity, 2012)
The holders and users of traditional forest-related knowledge are on the front lines of global efforts to deal with climate change and its impacts. Because of their close connection with, and high dependence on, forest ecosystems and landscapes, indigenous and local communities are among the first to witness, understand, and experience the impacts of climate change on forests and woodlands as well as on their livelihoods and cultures. The history of forest and agricultural landscape management practices of indigenous and local communities based on their traditional knowledge offer insights into principles and approaches that may be effective in coping with, and adapting to, climate change in the years ahead. Global, regional, national and local efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change, however, have not yet given adequate attention either to the forest-related knowledge and practices of traditional communities, or to the interests, needs and rights of local and indigenous communities in the formulation of policies and programmes to combat climate change. Due consideration of, and a more prominent role for, traditional forest-related knowledge and its practitioners could lead to the development of more effective and equitable approaches for facing the challenges posed by climate change while enhancing prospects for sustainable management of forest resources.

Assessing adaptive capacity and adaptation: Insights from Samoan tourism operators - Parsons, Meg; Brown, Cilla; Nalau, Johanna; Fisher, Karen (Climate and Development, 2017)

An assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change in the Alaska fire season of 2015 [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] - Partain, J. L., Jr.; Alden, S.; Bhatt, U.S.; Bieniek, P. A.; Brettschneider, B. R.; Lader, R.; Olsson, P. Q.; Rupp, T. S.; Strader, H.; Jr., R. L. Thoman; Walsh, J. E.; York, A. D.; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016)

Measuring and mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas production in the US Great Plains, 1870–2000 - Parton, William J.; Gutmann, Myron P.; Merchant, Emily R.; Hartman, Melannie D.; Adler, Paul R.; McNeal, Frederick M.; Lutz, Susan M. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
The Great Plains region of the United States is an agricultural production center for the global market and, as such, an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This article uses historical agricultural census data and ecosystem models to estimate the magnitude of annual GHG fluxes from all agricultural sources (e.g., cropping, livestock raising, irrigation, fertilizer production, tractor use) in the Great Plains from 1870 to 2000. Here, we show that carbon (C) released during the plow-out of native grasslands was the largest source of GHG emissions before 1930, whereas livestock production, direct energy use, and soil nitrous oxide emissions are currently the largest sources. Climatic factors mediate these emissions, with cool and wet weather promoting C sequestration and hot and dry weather increasing GHG release. This analysis demonstrates the long-term ecosystem consequences of both historical and current agricultural activities, but also indicates that adoption of available alternative management practices could substantially mitigate agricultural GHG fluxes, ranging from a 34% reduction with a 25% adoption rate to as much as complete elimination with possible net sequestration of C when a greater proportion of farmers adopt new agricultural practices.

Spatially Distinct Seasonal Patterns and Forcings of the U.S. Warming Hole - Partridge, T. F.; Winter, J. M.; Osterberg, E. C.; Hyndman, D. W.; Kendall, A. D.; Magilligan, F. J. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2018)
We present a novel approach to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of regional cooling across the eastern United States (commonly called the U.S. warming hole), by defining a spatially explicit boundary around the region of most persistent cooling. The warming hole emerges after a regime shift in 1958 where annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures decreased by 0.83°C and 0.46°C, respectively. The annual warming hole consists of two distinct seasonal modes, one located in the southeastern United States during winter and spring and the other in the midwestern United States during summer and autumn. A correlation analysis indicates that the seasonal modes differ in causation. Winter temperatures in the warming hole are significantly correlated with the Meridional Circulation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, the variability of ocean-atmosphere circulation modes is insufficient to explain the summer temperature patterns of the warming hole.

The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes: A review - Passeri, Davina L.; Hagen, Scott C.; Medeiros, Stephen C.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; Alizad, Karim; Wang, Dingbao (Earth’s Future, 2015)
Keywords: sea level rise hydrodynamics coastal morphology marsh ecology 1641 Sea level change 1625 Geomorphology and weathering 4235 Estuarine processes 4534 Hydrodynamic modeling

Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska - Pastick, Neal J.; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Goetz, Scott J.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Minsley, Bruke J.; Genet, Helene; Knight, Joseph F.; Swanson, David K.; Jorgenson, Janet C. (Global Change Biology, 2018)

Distribution of near-surface permafrost in Alaska: Estimates of present and future conditions - Pastick, Neal J.; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Wylie, Bruce K.; Nield, Shawn J.; Johnson, Kristofer D.; Finley, Andrew O. (Remote Sensing of Environment, 2015)
Keywords: Alaska Data mining Pedometrics Near-surface permafrost Machine learning Remote sensing

Retrospective analysis of associations between water quality and toxic blooms of golden alga (Prymnesium parvum) in Texas reservoirs: Implications for understanding dispersal mechanisms and impacts of climate change - Patiño, Reynaldo; Dawson, Dan; VanLandeghem, Matthew M. (Harmful Algae, 2014)
Keywords: Harmful algal bloom Inland waters Range expansion Salinity Water quality trends

Improved reservoir sizing utilizing observed and reconstructed streamflows within a Bayesian combination framework - Patskoski, Jason; Sankarasubramanian, A. (Water Resources Research, 2015)
Keywords: tree rings reservoir sizing sequent peak algorithm storage-reliability-yield curves ENSO 1857 Reservoirs (surface) 1860 Streamflow 4920 Dendrochronology 4922 El Nino

Reconstructed streamflow using SST and tree-ring chronologies over the southeastern United States - Patskoski, Jason; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Wang, Hui (Journal of Hydrology, 2015)
Keywords: Dendro-hydrology Streamflow reconstruction Singular spectrum analysis Principal component analysis Paleo-climate

Emergency Responses for High Plains Cattle Affected by the December 28-31, 2006, Blizzard - Paul, Bimal Kanti; Che, Deborah; Tinnon, Vicki L. (Natural Hazards Center, 2007)

Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts - Paull, Sara H.; Horton, Daniel E.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kramer, Laura D.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Kilpatrick, A. Marm (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2017)
The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. These results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.

Climate-smart soils - Paustian, Keith; Lehmann, Johannes; Ogle, Stephen; Reay, David; Robertson, G. Philip; Smith, Pete (Nature, 2016)

The nature of urban soils and their role in ecological restoration in cities - Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitchell A. (Restoration Ecology, 2008)
Keywords: added by ERG

An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5 - Payne, Ashley E.; Magnusdottir, Gudrun (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2015)
Keywords: atmospheric rivers CMIP5 evaluation North Pacific RCP 8.5 moisture transport 1610 Atmosphere 1620 Climate dynamics 1626 Global climate models 3305 Climate change and variability 4313 Extreme events

El Niño and climate change—Contributing factors in the dispersal of Zika virus in the Americas? - Paz, Shlomit; Semenza, Jan C. (The Lancet, 2016)

What mediates tree mortality during drought in the southern Sierra Nevada? - Paz‐Kagan, Tarin; Brodrick, Philip G.; Vaughn, Nicholas R.; Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Nydick, Koren R.; Asner, Gregory P. (Ecological Applications, 2017)
Severe drought has the potential to cause selective mortality within a forest, thereby inducing shifts in forest species composition. The southern Sierra Nevada foothills and mountains of California have experienced extensive forest dieback due to drought stress and insect outbreak. We used high‐fidelity imaging spectroscopy (HiFIS) and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) from the Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) to estimate the effect of forest dieback on species composition in response to drought stress in Sequoia National Park. Our aims were (1) to quantify site‐specific conditions that mediate tree mortality along an elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, (2) to assess where mortality events have a greater probability of occurring, and (3) to estimate which tree species have a greater likelihood of mortality along the elevation gradient. A series of statistical models were generated to classify species composition and identify tree mortality, and the influences of different environmental factors were spatially quantified and analyzed to assess where mortality events have a greater likelihood of occurring. A higher probability of mortality was observed in the lower portion of the elevation gradient, on southwest‐ and west‐facing slopes, in areas with shallow soils, on shallower slopes, and at greater distances from water. All of these factors are related to site water balance throughout the landscape. Our results also suggest that mortality is species‐specific along the elevation gradient, mainly affecting Pinus ponderosa and Pinus lambertiana at lower elevations. Selective mortality within the forest may drive long‐term shifts in community composition along the elevation gradient.

Weathering the Storm: Building Business Resilience to Climate Change - Peace, Janet; Crawford, Meg; Seidel, Stephen (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES), 2013)

Weathering the Next Storm: A Closer Look at Business Resilience - Peace, Janet; Maher, Katy (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES), 2015)

The “Marine Heat Wave” off Western Australia During the Summer of 2010/11 - Pearce, Alan; Lenanton, R.; Jackson, Gary; Moore, James; Feng, Ming; Gaughan, Dan (Western Australia Fisheries and Marine Research Laboratories, 2011)

Inuit traditional ecological knowledge (TEK): Subsistence hunting and adaptation to climate change in the Canadian arctic - Pearce, Tristan; Ford, James; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Smit, Barry (Arctic, 2015)
Keywords: adaptation, Inuit, Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit (IQ), resilience, traditional ecological knowledge (TEK), subsistence hunting, vulnerability

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: Are bioclimate envelope models useful? - Pearson, Richard G.; Dawson, Terence P. (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2003)
Modelling strategies for predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of species have often focused on the characterization of a species’ bioclimate envelope. A number of recent critiques have questioned the validity of this approach by pointing to the many factors other than climate that play an important part in determining species distributions and the dynamics of distribution changes. Such factors include biotic interactions, evolutionary change and dispersal ability. This paper reviews and evaluates criticisms of bioclimate envelope models and discusses the implications of these criticisms for the different modelling strategies employed. It is proposed that, although the complexity of the natural system presents fundamental limits to predictive modelling, the bioclimate envelope approach can provide a useful first approximation as to the potentially dramatic impact of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is stressed that the spatial scale at which these models are applied is of fundamental importance, and that model results should not be interpreted without due consideration of the limitations involved. A hierarchical modelling framework is proposed through which some of these limitations can be addressed within a broader, scale-dependent context.

Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change - Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akcakaya, H. Resit (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being - Pecl, Gretta T.; Araújo, Miguel B.; Bell, Johann D.; Blanchard, Julia; Bonebrake, Timothy C.; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D.; Colwell, Robert K.; Danielsen, Finn; Evengård, Birgitta; Falconi, Lorena; Ferrier, Simon; et al. (Science, 2017)
Climate change is causing geographical redistribution of plant and animal species globally. These distributional shifts are leading to new ecosystems and ecological communities, changes that will affect human society. Pecl et al. review these current and future impacts and assess their implications for sustainable development goals.Science, this issue p. eaai9214BACKGROUNDThe success of human societies depends intimately on the living components of natural and managed systems. Although the geographical range limits of species are dynamic and fluctuate over time, climate change is impelling a universal redistribution of life on Earth. For marine, freshwater, and terrestrial species alike, the first response to changing climate is often a shift in location, to stay within preferred environmental conditions. At the cooler extremes of their distributions, species are moving poleward, whereas range limits are contracting at the warmer range edge, where temperatures are no longer tolerable. On land, species are also moving to cooler, higher elevations; in the ocean, they are moving to colder water at greater depths. Because different species respond at different rates and to varying degrees, key interactions among species are often disrupted, and new interactions develop. These idiosyncrasies can result in novel biotic communities and rapid changes in ecosystem functioning, with pervasive and sometimes unexpected consequences that propagate through and affect both biological and human communities.ADVANCESAt a time when the world is anticipating unprecedented increases in human population growth and demands, the ability of natural ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services is being challenged by the largest climate-driven global redistribution of species since the Last Glacial Maximum. We demonstrate the serious consequences of this species redistribution for economic development, livelihoods, food security, human health, and culture, and we document feedbacks on climate itself. As with other impacts of climate change, species range shifts will leave “winners” and “losers” in their wake, radically reshaping the pattern of human well-being between regions and different sectors and potentially leading to substantial conflict. The pervasive impacts of changes in species distribution transcend single systems or dimensions, with feedbacks and linkages between multiple interacting scales and through whole ecosystems, inclusive of humans. We argue that the negative effects of climate change cannot be adequately anticipated or prepared for unless species responses are explicitly included in decision-making and global strategic frameworks.OUTLOOKDespite mounting evidence for the pervasive and substantial impacts of a climate-driven redistribution of Earth’s species, current global goals, policies, and international agreements fail to account for these effects. With the predicted intensification of species movements and their diverse societal and environmental impacts, awareness of species “on the move” should be incorporated into local, regional, and global assessments as standard practice. This will raise hope that future targets—whether they be global sustainability goals, plans for regional biodiversity maintenance, or local fishing or forestry harvest strategies—can be achievable and that society is prepared for a world of universal ecological change. Human society has yet to appreciate the implications of unprecedented species redistribution for life on Earth, including for human lives. Even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped today, the responses required in human systems to adapt to the most serious effects of climate-driven species redistribution would be massive. Meeting these challenges requires governance that can anticipate and adapt to changing conditions, as well as minimize negative consequences.As the global climate changes, human well-being, ecosystem function, and even climate itself are increasingly affected by the shifting geography of life.Climate-driven changes in species distributions, or range hifts, affect human well-being both directly (for example, through emerging diseases and changes in food supply) and indirectly (by degrading ecosystem health). Some range shifts even create feedbacks (positive or negative) on the climate system, altering the pace of climate change. Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals.

Oregon CCO Housing Supports: Survey Report 2016 - Peden, Amanda; Droppers, Oliver (Oregon Health Authority, Office of Health Policy, 2016)

The impact of regional arctic sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and the NAO - Pedersen, Rasmus A.; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Langen, Peter L.; Vinther, Bo M. (Journal of Climate, 2016)
Reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover can affect the atmospheric circulation and thus impact the climate beyond the Arctic. The atmospheric response may, however, vary with the geographical location of sea ice loss. The atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss is studied using a general circulation model in a configuration that allows combination of a prescribed sea ice cover and an active mixed layer ocean. This hybrid setup makes it possible to simulate the isolated impact of sea ice loss and provides a more complete response compared to experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming, which peaks over the area of ice loss. The maximum warming is found during winter, delayed compared to the maximum sea ice reduction. The wintertime response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation shows a nonuniform sensitivity to the location of sea ice reduction. While all three scenarios exhibit decreased zonal winds related to high-latitude geopotential height increases, the magnitudes and locations of the anomalies vary between the simulations. Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation reveals a high sensitivity to the location of the ice loss. The northern center of action exhibits clear shifts in response to the different sea ice reductions. Sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic cause westward and eastward shifts, respectively.
Keywords: Geographic location/entity,Arctic,Sea ice,Circulation/ Dynamics,Atmospheric circulation,Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena,North Atlantic Oscillation,Models and modeling,General circulation models

Regional patterns and proximal causes of the recent snowpack decline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S - Pederson, Gregory T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; McCabe, Gregory J. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2013)
Keywords: snow tree rings snow model water resources paleoclimate climate change 0736 Snow 1621 Cryospheric change 1616 Climate variability 1637 Regional climate change 9350 North America

Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA - Pederson, Gregory T.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Gray, Stephen T.; Graumlich, Lisa J. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2004)
Little Ice Age (14th–19th centuries A.D.) glacial maxima and 20th century retreat have been well documented in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. However, the influence of regional and Pacific Basin driven climate variability on these events is poorly understood. We use tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial accumulation and summer ablation, respectively, over the past three centuries. These records show that the 1850's glacial maximum was likely produced by ∼70 yrs of cool/wet summers coupled with high snowpack. Post 1850, glacial retreat coincides with an extended period (>50 yr) of summer drought and low snowpack culminating in the exceptional events of 1917 to 1941 when retreat rates for some glaciers exceeded 100 m/yr. This research highlights potential local and ocean-based drivers of glacial dynamics, and difficulties in separating the effects of global climate change from regional expressions of decadal-scale climate variability.

A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend? - Pederson, Gregory T.; Graumlich, Lisa J.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Kipfer, Todd; Muhlfeld, Clint C. (Climatic Change, 2010)

Climatic controls on the snowmelt hydrology of the northern Rocky Mountains - Pederson, Gregory T.; Gray, Stephen T.; Ault, Toby; Marsh, Wendy; Fagre, Daniel B.; Bunn, Andrew G.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Graumlich, Lisa J. (Journal of Climate, 2011)
The northern Rocky Mountains (NRMs) are a critical headwaters region with the majority of water resources originating from mountain snowpack. Observations showing declines in western U.S. snowpack have implications for water resources and biophysical processes in high-mountain environments. This study investigates oceanic and atmospheric controls underlying changes in timing, variability, and trends documented across the entire hydroclimatic-monitoring system within critical NRM watersheds. Analyses were conducted using records from 25 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 148 1 April snow course records, stream gauge records from 14 relatively unimpaired rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations. Over the past four decades, midelevation SNOTEL records show a tendency toward decreased snowpack with peak snow water equivalent (SWE) arriving and melting out earlier. Temperature records show significant seasonal and annual decreases in the number of frost days (days ≤0°C) and changes in spring minimum temperatures that correspond with atmospheric circulation changes and surface–albedo feedbacks in March and April. Warmer spring temperatures coupled with increases in mean and variance of spring precipitation correspond strongly to earlier snowmeltout, an increased number of snow-free days, and observed changes in streamflow timing and discharge. The majority of the variability in peak and total annual snowpack and streamflow, however, is explained by season-dependent interannual-to-interdecadal changes in atmospheric circulation associated with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Over recent decades, increased spring precipitation appears to be buffering NRM total annual streamflow from what would otherwise be greater snow-related declines in hydrologic yield. Results have important implications for ecosystems, water resources, and long-lead-forecasting capabilities.
Keywords: Hydrology,Snowmelt/icemelt,Streamflow,Water masses/storage,Watersheds

The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American cordillera - Pederson, Gregory T.; Gray, Stephen T.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Watson, Emma; Luckman, Brian H.; Graumlich, Lisa J. (Science, 2011)
In western North America, snowpack has declined in recent decades, and further losses are projected through the 21st century. Here, we evaluate the uniqueness of recent declines using snowpack reconstructions from 66 tree-ring chronologies in key runoff-generating areas of the Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri River drainages. Over the past millennium, late 20th century snowpack reductions are almost unprecedented in magnitude across the northern Rocky Mountains and in their north-south synchrony across the cordillera. Both the snowpack declines and their synchrony result from unparalleled springtime warming that is due to positive reinforcement of the anthropogenic warming by decadal variability. The increasing role of warming on large-scale snowpack variability and trends foreshadows fundamental impacts on streamflow and water supplies across the western United States.

Climate remains an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the eastern United States - Pederson, Neil; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dyer, James M.; Foster, David R.; Goldblum, David; Hart, Justin L.; Hessl, Amy E.; Iverson, Louis R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Martin-Benito, Dario; McCarthy, Brian C.; McEwan, Ryan W.; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2015)

Climate change, migration phenology, and fisheries management interact with unanticipated consequences - Peer, A. C.; Miller, T. J. (North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 2014)

Characterizing cooling water source and usage patterns across US thermoelectric power plants: A comprehensive assessment of self-reported cooling water data - Peer, Rebecca A. M.; Sanders, Kelly T. (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)

Pelagic Fisheries of the Western Pacific Region: 2013 Annual Report - Pelagics Plan Team and Council Staff (NOAA, NMFS, Western Pacific Regional, 2015)

Taking the pulse of snowmelt: In situ sensors reveal seasonal, event and diurnal patterns of nitrate and dissolved organic matter variability in an upland forest stream - Pellerin, Brian A.; Saraceno, John Franco; Shanley, James B.; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Aiken, George R.; Wollheim, Wilfred M.; Bergamaschi, Brian A. (Biogeochemistry, 2012)
Highly resolved time series data are useful to accurately identify the timing, rate, and magnitude of solute transport in streams during hydrologically dynamic periods such as snowmelt. We used in situ optical sensors for nitrate (NO3 −) and chromophoric dissolved organic matter fluorescence (FDOM) to measure surface water concentrations at 30 min intervals over the snowmelt period (March 21–May 13, 2009) at a 40.5 hectare forested watershed at Sleepers River, Vermont. We also collected discrete samples for laboratory absorbance and fluorescence as well as δ18O–NO3 − isotopes to help interpret the drivers of variable NO3 − and FDOM concentrations measured in situ. In situ data revealed seasonal, event and diurnal patterns associated with hydrological and biogeochemical processes regulating stream NO3 − and FDOM concentrations. An observed decrease in NO3 − concentrations after peak snowmelt runoff and muted response to spring rainfall was consistent with the flushing of a limited supply of NO3 − (mainly from nitrification) from source areas in surficial soils. Stream FDOM concentrations were coupled with flow throughout the study period, suggesting a strong hydrologic control on DOM concentrations in the stream. However, higher FDOM concentrations per unit streamflow after snowmelt likely reflected a greater hydraulic connectivity of the stream to leachable DOM sources in upland soils. We also observed diurnal NO3 − variability of 1–2 μmol l−1 after snowpack ablation, presumably due to in-stream uptake prior to leafout. A comparison of NO3 − and dissolved organic carbon yields (DOC, measured by FDOM proxy) calculated from weekly discrete samples and in situ data sub-sampled daily resulted in small to moderate differences over the entire study period (−4 to 1% for NO3 − and −3 to −14% for DOC), but resulted in much larger differences for daily yields (−66 to +27% for NO3 − and −88 to +47% for DOC, respectively). Despite challenges inherent in in situ sensor deployments in harsh seasonal conditions, these data provide important insights into processes controlling NO3 − and FDOM in streams, and will be critical for evaluating the effects of climate change on snowmelt delivery to downstream ecosystems.

Adaptation to Climate Change: From Resilience to Transformation - Pelling, Mark (Routledge, 2010)

Adaptation and transformation - Pelling, Mark; O’Brien, Karen; Matyas, David (Climatic Change, 2015)
Transformation as an adaptive response to climate change opens a range of novel policy options. Used to describe responses that produce non-linear changes in systems or their host social and ecological environments, transformation also raises distinct ethical and procedural questions for decision-makers. Expanding adaptation to include transformation foregrounds questions of power and preference that have so far been underdeveloped in adaptation theory and practice. We build on David Harvey’s notion of activity space to derive a framework and research agenda for climate change adaptation seen as a political decision-point and as an opportunity for transformation, incremental adjustment or resistance to change in development pathway. Decision-making is unpacked through the notion of the activity space into seven coevolving sites: the individual, technology, livelihoods, discourse, behaviour, the environment and institutions. The framework is tested against practitioner priorities to define an agenda that can make coherent advances in research and practice on climate change adaptation.

Past climate‐driven range shifts and population genetic diversity in arctic plants - Pellissier, Loïc; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Ehrich, Dorothee; Descombes, Patrice; Schönswetter, Peter; Tribsch, Andreas; Westergaard, Kristine Bakke; Alvarez, Nadir; Guisan, Antoine; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Normand, Signe; Vittoz, Pascal; et al. (Journal of Biogeography, 2016)
Aim High intra‐specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and extant population genetic diversity across multiple plant species to understand variability in species responses. Location The circumpolar Arctic and northern temperate alpine ranges. Methods We estimated the climatic niches of 30 cold‐adapted plant species using range maps coupled with species distribution models and hindcasted species suitable areas to reconstructions of the mid‐Holocene and LGM climates. We computed the species‐specific migration distances from the species glacial refugia to their current distribution and correlated distances to extant genetic diversity in 1295 populations. Differential responses among species were related to life‐history traits. Results We found a negative association between inferred migration distances from refugia and genetic diversities in 25 species, but only 11 had statistically significant negative slopes. The relationships between inferred distance and population genetic diversity were steeper for insect‐pollinated species than wind‐pollinated species, but the difference among pollination system was marginally independent from phylogenetic autocorrelation. Main conclusion The relationships between inferred migration distances and genetic diversities in 11 species, independent from current isolation, indicate that past range shifts were associated with a genetic bottleneck effect with an average of 21% loss of genetic diversity per 1000 km−1. In contrast, the absence of relationship in many species also indicates that the response is species specific and may be modulated by plant pollination strategies or result from more complex historical contingencies than those modelled here.

[Global climate] Alpine glaciers [in “State of the Climate in 2014”] - Pelto, M. S. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015)

Coral reefs and people in a high-CO2 world: Where can science make a difference to people? - Pendleton, Linwood; Comte, Adrien; Langdon, Chris; Ekstrom, Julia A.; Cooley, Sarah R.; Suatoni, Lisa; Beck, Michael W.; Brander, Luke M.; Burke, Lauretta; Cinner, Josh E.; Doherty, Carolyn; Edwards, Peter E. T.; et al. (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Reefs and People at Risk Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people’s lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science. An Indicator Approach Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO2-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO2 world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO2 world.

Coral reefs and people in a high-CO2 world: Where can science make a difference to people? - Pendleton, Linwood; Comte, Adrien; Langdon, Chris; Ekstrom, Julia A.; Cooley, Sarah R.; Suatoni, Lisa; Beck, Michael W.; Brander, Luke M.; Burke, Lauretta; Cinner, Josh E.; Doherty, Carolyn; Edwards, Peter E. T.; et al. (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Reefs and People at Risk Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people’s lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science. An Indicator Approach Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO2-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO2 world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO2 world.

Multiple stressors and ecological complexity require a new approach to coral reef research - Pendleton, Linwood H.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Langdon, Chris; Comte, Adrien (Frontiers in Marine Science, 2016)
Ocean acidification, climate change, and other environmental stressors threaten coral reef ecosystems and the people who depend upon them. New science reveals that these multiple stressors interact and may affect a multitude of physiological and ecological processes in complex ways. The interaction of multiple stressors and ecological complexity may mean that the negative effects on coral reef ecosystems will happen sooner and be more severe than previously thought. Yet, most research on the effects of global change on coral reefs focus on one or few stressors and pathways or outcomes (e.g. bleaching). Based on a critical review of the literature, we call for a regionally targeted strategy of mesocosm-level research that addresses this complexity and provides more realistic projections about coral reef impacts in the face of global environmental change. We believe similar approaches are needed for other ecosystems that face global environmental change.
Keywords: coral reefs,multiple stressors,mesocosm-level research,Climate Change,ocean acidification

Corrosion and capacity prediction of marine steel infrastructure under a changing environment - Peng, Lizhengli; Stewart, Mark G.; Melchers, Robert E. (Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2017)

Rapid and sustained surface ocean acidification during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum - Penman, Donald E.; Hönisch, Bärbel; Zeebe, Richard E.; Thomas, Ellen; Zachos, James C. (Paleoceanography, 2014)
Keywords: ocean acidification PETM boron isotopes climate change 1041 Stable isotope geochemistry 1009 Geochemical modeling 4806 Carbon cycling 4948 Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum 4901 Abrupt/rapid climate change

Seasons of stress: Understanding the dynamic nature of people’s ability to respond to change and surprise - Penn, Henry J. F.; Gerlach, S. Craig; Loring, Philip A. (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2016)

Penobscot Nation Water Quality Standards - Penobscot Indian Nation (Department of Natural Resources, 2014)

Multiple threats to child health from fossil fuel combustion: Impacts of air pollution and climate change - Perera, Frederica P. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2017)

Thermal trouble in the tropics - Perez, Timothy M.; Stroud, James T.; Feeley, Kenneth J. (Science, 2016)

Precipitation-Frequency Atlas of the United States. Volume 9 Version 2.0: Southeastern States (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi) - Perica, Sanja; Martin, Deborah; Pavlovic, Sandra; Roy, Ishani; Laurent, Michael St.; Trypaluk, Carl; Unruh, Dale; Yekta, Michael; Bonnin, Geoffrey (NOAA National Weather Service, 2013)

Groundwater declines are linked to changes in Great Plains stream fish assemblages - Perkin, Joshuah S.; Gido, Keith B.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Crockett, Harry; Johnson, Eric R.; Sanderson, John (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Groundwater pumping for agriculture is a major driver causing declines of global freshwater ecosystems, yet the ecological consequences for stream fish assemblages are rarely quantified. We combined retrospective (1950–2010) and prospective (2011–2060) modeling approaches within a multiscale framework to predict change in Great Plains stream fish assemblages associated with groundwater pumping from the United States High Plains Aquifer. We modeled the relationship between the length of stream receiving water from the High Plains Aquifer and the occurrence of fishes characteristic of small and large streams in the western Great Plains at a regional scale and for six subwatersheds nested within the region. Water development at the regional scale was associated with construction of 154 barriers that fragment stream habitats, increased depth to groundwater and loss of 558 km of stream, and transformation of fish assemblage structure from dominance by large-stream to small-stream fishes. Scaling down to subwatersheds revealed consistent transformations in fish assemblage structure among western subwatersheds with increasing depths to groundwater. Although transformations occurred in the absence of barriers, barriers along mainstem rivers isolate depauperate western fish assemblages from relatively intact eastern fish assemblages. Projections to 2060 indicate loss of an additional 286 km of stream across the region, as well as continued replacement of large-stream fishes by small-stream fishes where groundwater pumping has increased depth to groundwater. Our work illustrates the shrinking of streams and homogenization of Great Plains stream fish assemblages related to groundwater pumping, and we predict similar transformations worldwide where local and regional aquifer depletions occur.

Screening Analysis Report for the Proposed Generic Issue on Flooding of Nuclear Power Plant Sites Following Upstream Dam Failures - Perkins, Richard H.; Bensi, Michelle T.; Philip, Jacob; Sancaktar, Selim (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 2011)

Grassland birds and rotational-grazing in the northeast: Breeding ecology, survival and management opportunities - Perlut, Noah G.; Strong, Allan M. (Journal of Wildlife Management, 2011)
Keywords: apparent survival bobolink dolichonyx oryzivorus grassland birds northeastern United States Passerculus sandwichensis pasture management reproduction rotational-grazing savannah sparrow

A model for integrating wildlife science and agri-environmental policy in the conservation of declining species - Perlut, Noah G.; Strong, Allan M.; Alexander, Toby J. (Journal of Wildlife Management, 2011)
Keywords: agri-environmental policy bobolink Dolichonyx oryzivorus eastern meadowlark Grassland Bird Conservation Incentive hayland management Passerculus sandwichensis Savannah sparrow Sturnella magna wildlife friendly farming

Arctic tropospheric warming: Causes and linkages to lower latitudes - Perlwitz, Judith; Hoerling, Martin; Dole, Randall (Journal of Climate, 2015)
Arctic temperatures have risen dramatically relative to those of lower latitudes in recent decades, with a common supposition being that sea ice declines are primarily responsible for amplified Arctic tropospheric warming. This conjecture is central to a hypothesis in which Arctic sea ice loss forms the beginning link of a causal chain that includes weaker westerlies in midlatitudes, more persistent and amplified midlatitude waves, and more extreme weather. Through model experimentation, the first step in this chain is examined by quantifying contributions of various physical factors to October–December (OND) mean Arctic tropospheric warming since 1979. The results indicate that the main factors responsible for Arctic tropospheric warming are recent decadal fluctuations and long-term changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), both located outside the Arctic. Arctic sea ice decline is the largest contributor to near-surface Arctic temperature increases, but it accounts for only about 20% of the magnitude of 1000–500-hPa warming. These findings thus disconfirm the hypothesis that deep tropospheric warming in the Arctic during OND has resulted substantially from sea ice loss. Contributions of the same factors to recent midlatitude climate trends are then examined. It is found that pronounced circulation changes over the North Atlantic and North Pacific result mainly from recent decadal ocean fluctuations and internal atmospheric variability, while the effects of sea ice declines are very small. Therefore, a hypothesized causal chain of hemisphere-wide connections originating from Arctic sea ice loss is not supported.
Keywords: Arctic,Sea ice,Troposphere,Climate variability,Temperature,General circulation models

Large-scale circulation and climate variability - Perlwitz, J.; Knutson, T.; Kossin, J.P.; LeGrande, A.N. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

Sea ice [in Arctic Report Card 2016] - Perovich, D.; Meier, W.; Tschudi, M.; Farrell, S.; Gerland, S.; Hendricks, S.; Krumpen, T.; Hass, C. (2016)

Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies - Perrow, Charles (Princeton University Press, 2011)

Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes - Perry, Allison L.; Low, Paula J.; Ellis, Jim R.; Reynolds, John D. (Science, 2005)

Caribbean-wide decline in carbonate production threatens coral reef growth - Perry, Chris T.; Murphy, Gary N.; Kench, Paul S.; Smithers, Scott G.; Edinger, Evan N.; Steneck, Robert S.; Mumby, Peter J. (Nature Communications, 2013)

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design - Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B. (Ecohydrology, 2015)
Keywords: climate adaptation global change hydrology ecological restoration riparian ecosystems river management streamflow

Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery - Pershing, Andrew J.; Alexander, Michael A.; Hernandez, Christina M.; Kerr, Lisa A.; Le Bris, Arnault; Mills, Katherine E.; Nye, Janet A.; Record, Nicholas R.; Scannell, Hillary A.; Scott, James D.; Sherwood, Graham D.; Thomas, Andrew C. (Science, 2015)
Several studies have documented fish populations changing in response to long-term warming. Over the past decade, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Maine increased faster than 99% of the global ocean. The warming, which was related to a northward shift in the Gulf Stream and to changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, led to reduced recruitment and increased mortality in the region’s Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock. Failure to recognize the impact of warming on cod contributed to overfishing. Recovery of this fishery depends on sound management, but the size of the stock depends on future temperature conditions. The experience in the Gulf of Maine highlights the need to incorporate environmental factors into resource management.In the best of worlds, exploited fish stocks are monitored so that harvest quotas protect the reproductive ability of the population. Climate change is likely to complicate this process substantially. Pershing et al. found that cod stocks declined continuously during intense warming in the North Atlantic. Fisheries quotas, even though they were responsibly set and followed by fishers, decreased the reproductive rate. Thus, managing fisheries in a warming world is going to be increasingly problematic.

Response to Comments on “Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery” - Pershing, Andrew J.; Alexander, Michael A.; Hernandez, Christina M.; Kerr, Lisa A.; Le Bris, Arnault; Mills, Katherine E.; Nye, Janet A.; Record, Nicholas R.; Scannell, Hillary A.; Scott, James D.; Sherwood, Graham D.; Thomas, Andrew C. (Science, 2016)
Palmer et al. and Swain et al. suggest that our “extra mortality” time series is spurious. In response, we show that including temperature-dependent mortality improves abundance estimates and that warming waters reduce growth rates in Gulf of Maine cod. Far from being spurious, temperature effects on this stock are clear, and continuing to ignore them puts the stock in jeopardy.

Oceans and Marine Resources - Pershing, A.J.; Griffis, R.B.; Jewett, E.B.; Armstrong, C.T.; Bruno, J.F.; Busch, D.S.; Haynie, A.C.; Siedlecki, S.A.; Tommasi, D. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Monitoring changes in salinity and metal concentrations in New Jersey (USA) coastal ecosystems Post-Hurricane Sandy - Personna, Yves Robert; Geng, Xiaolong; Saleh, Firas; Shu, Zhan; Jackson, Nancy; Weinstein, Michael P.; Boufadel, Michel C. (Environmental Earth Sciences, 2015)
Temporal changes in pore-water salinity and metal concentrations were investigated in soils from two sites (residential and wetland areas) located in the Old Bridge Township, NJ, after Hurricane Sandy hit the Northeast of the United States of America. Core and surface soil samples were collected in both the residential and wetland sites and then analyzed by field portable X-ray fluorescence (NITON XL3t-600 series FP-XRF). Pore-water salinity was determined from continuous measurements (every 10 min) of conductivity in a single sampling well installed in the wetland site. One month after Hurricane Sandy, pore-salinity was as high as 27 g/L, but gradually decreased to 15 g/L in approximately 3 months. Then, it increased gradually to 26 g/L 3 months later. High metal concentrations (lead, arsenic, copper, chromium, and iron) were measured in the surface and top 2-cm soil layer in both residential and wetland sites, often exceeding background levels within weeks of Hurricane Sandy. These metal contaminations were interpreted as being associated with storm surge from Hurricane Sandy that caused substantial flooding of the coastal areas by large amounts of seawater, loaded with dissolved metal and adsorbed metals to suspended sediments from the Raritan Bay Slag Superfund site. The changes in salinity in wetland areas indicated the intrusion of seawater, thus providing evidence for metal-contaminated seawater altering the wetland’s geochemistry. The transport and deposition of metal contaminants in the coastal areas by Hurricane Sandy increased the risk of human exposure to these contaminants.

Institutionalization or wither away? Twenty-five years of environmental policy integration under shifting governance models in Sweden - Persson, Åsa; Eckerberg, Katarina; Nilsson, Måns (Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 2016)
Snapshot views of environmental policy integration (EPI) practices fail to consider the stability of EPI over time – both as aspiration and performance. This paper reviews the evolution of EPI over more than two decades at the national level in the agriculture and energy sectors in Sweden – an EPI pioneer. We study how the extent of EPI stability can be explained partly by shifting political priorities by governments and partly by underlying governance models (actors and organizational landscape and policy instruments used). Comparing the two sectors, the institutionalization of EPI appears to be stronger in the energy sector. In the agricultural sector, the current reform of the Common Agricultural Policy seems to imply decreasing prominence of EPI – due to shrinking budgets for environmental targets along with greater policy goals complexity. Overall, observed shifts in governance have been mildly conducive to EPI by providing an infrastructure, but further enhancements require clear political priority awarded to the environment.
Keywords: environmental policy,governance,integration,agriculture,energy

Population status of North American grassland birds from the North American Breeding Bird Survey - Peterjohn, B.; Sauer, J. R. (Ecology and Conservation of Grassland Birds of the Western Hemisphere, 1999)

Increased particulate air pollution and the triggering of myocardial infarction - Peters, Annette; Dockery, Douglas W.; Muller, James E.; Mittleman, Murray A. (Circulation, 2001)
Background—Elevated concentrations of ambient particulate air pollution have been associated with increased hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease. Whether high concentrations of ambient particles can trigger the onset of acute myocardial infarction (MI), however, remains unknown. Methods and Results—We interviewed 772 patients with MI in the greater Boston area between January 1995 and May 1996 as part of the Determinants of Myocardial Infarction Onset Study. Hourly concentrations of particle mass <2.5 μm (PM2.5), carbon black, and gaseous air pollutants were measured. A case-crossover approach was used to analyze the data for evidence of triggering. The risk of MI onset increased in association with elevated concentrations of fine particles in the previous 2-hour period. In addition, a delayed response associated with 24-hour average exposure 1 day before the onset of symptoms was observed. Multivariate analyses considering both time windows jointly revealed an estimated odds ratio of 1.48 associated with an increase of 25 μg/m3 PM2.5 during a 2-hour period before the onset and an odds ratio of 1.69 for an increase of 20 μg/m3 PM2.5 in the 24-hour period 1 day before the onset (95% CIs 1.09, 2.02 and 1.13, 2.34, respectively). Conclusions—The present study suggests that elevated concentrations of fine particles in the air may transiently elevate the risk of MIs within a few hours and 1 day after exposure. Further studies in other locations are needed to clarify the importance of this potentially preventable trigger of MI.

Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement - Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Fuss, Sabine; Jackson, Robert B.; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Le Quéré, Corinne; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions - Peters, Glen P.; Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jackson, Robert B.; Joos, Fortunat; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; McKinley, Galen A.; Sitch, Stephen; Tans, Pieter (Nature Climate Change, 2017)
The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability.

Research articles: In their own words: Perceptions of climate change adaptation from the Great Lakes region's resource management community - Petersen, Brian; Hall, Kimberly R.; Kahl, Katherine; Doran, Patrick J. (Environmental Practice, 2013)

Observed changes in false springs over the contiguous United States - Peterson, Alexander G.; Abatzoglou, John T. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Keywords: phenology spring freeze biosphere-atmosphere interaction false springs sensitivity analysis climate change 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions 1637 Regional climate change 1630 Impacts of global change 1843 Land/atmosphere interactions 3305 Climate change and variability

Managing and adapting to changing fire regimes in a warmer climate - Peterson, David L.; Halofsky, Jessica E.; Johnson, Morris C. (The Landscape Ecology of Fire, 2011)

Forest Structure and Fire Hazard in Dry Forests of the Western United States - Peterson, David L.; Johnson, Morris C.; Agee, James K.; Jain, Theresa B.; McKenzie, Donald; Reinhardt, Elizabeth D. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 2005)

Responding to Climate Change on National Forests: A Guidebook For Developing Adaptation Options - Peterson, D.L.; Millar, C.I.; Joyce, L.A.; Furniss, M.J.; Halofsky, J.E.; Neilson, R.P.; Morelli, T.L. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Forest Service, 2011)

Scenario planning: A tool for conservation in an uncertain world - Peterson, Garry D.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Carpenter, Stephen R. (Conservation Biology, 2003)
Conservation decisions about how, when, and where to act are typically based on our expectations for the future. When the world is highly unpredictable and we are working from a limited range of expectations, however, our expectations will frequently be proved wrong. Scenario planning offers a framework for developing more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. A scenario in this context is an account of a plausible future. Scenario planning consists of using a few contrasting scenarios to explore the uncertainty surrounding the future consequences of a decision. Ideally, scenarios should be constructed by a diverse group of people for a single, stated purpose. Scenario planning can incorporate a variety of quantitative and qualitative information in the decision‐making process. Often, consideration of this diverse information in a systemic way leads to better decisions. Furthermore, the participation of a diverse group of people in a systemic process of collecting, discussing, and analyzing scenarios builds shared understanding. The robustness provided by the consideration of multiple possible futures has served several groups well; we present examples from business, government, and conservation planning that illustrate the value of scenario planning. For conservation, major benefits of using scenario planning are (1) increased understanding of key uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, and (3) greater resilience of decisions to surprise.

Weather Ready Nation Ambassadors Program at the Bureau of Indian Affairs - Peterson, Harold; McGhee, Chester; Blackhair, Johnna; Rawlings, Leonard; Kelley, Marlene; Bluecloud, Keith; Harjo, Rheta; Ruth, Andrew; Saunders, David; Gordon, Latonya; Maytubby, Bruce (Fourth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation's Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events, 2016)

When adaptation is not enough: “Between now and then” of community-led resettlement - Peterson, Kristina; Maldonado, Julie Koppel (Anthropology and Climate Change: From Encounters to Actions, 2016)

Refining the process of science support for communities around extreme weather events and climate impacts - Peterson, Kristina J.; Laska, Shirley B.; Philippe, Rosina; Porter, Olivia Burchett; Krajeski, Richard L.; Steinberg, Sheila Lakshmi; Sprigg, William A. (Extreme Weather, Health, and Communities: Interdisciplinary Engagement Strategies, 2016)
Native American communities along the Gulf of Mexico, separated in significant ways from contemporary tools and technology, experience and cope with weather extremes in unique and largely unknown ways. From one generation to the next there has been little communication between science, where advanced tools of warning and survival can be derived, and community, where lessons of “living off the land” can inform science of the most pressing needs and the most practical and useful technologies to fill them. This chapter describes a successful and ongoing science/community relationship to address immediate pressures of extreme weather and the resilience to confront potential threats from forces extant, including climate variability and human exploitation of natural resources. Lessons learned here, particularly those of communication and collaboration, apply around the world where both global science and self-supporting communities have become isolated from one another.

Trophic cascades in a multicausal world: Isle Royale and Yellowstone - Peterson, Rolf O.; Vucetich, John A.; Bump, Joseph M.; Smith, Douglas W. (Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 2014)
Questions of whether trophic cascades occur in Isle Royale National Park (IRNP) or Yellowstone National Park's northern range (NR) cannot lead to simple, precise, or definitive answers. Such answers are limited especially by multicausality in the NR and by complex temporal variation in IRNP. Spatial heterogeneity, contingency, and nonequilibrium dynamics also work against simple answers in IRNP and NR. The existence of a trophic cascade in IRNP and NR also depends greatly on how it is defined. For example, some conceive of trophic cascades as entailing essentially any indirect effect of predation. This may be fine, but the primary intellectual value of such a conception may be to assess an important view in community ecology that most species are connected to most other species in a food web through a network of complicated, albeit weak, indirect effects. These circumstances that work against simple answers likely apply to many ecosystems. Despite the challenges of assessing the existence of trophic cascades in IRNP and NR, such assessments result in considerable insights about a more fundamental question: What causes population abundance to fluctuate?
Keywords: moose,elk,wolf,predation,herbivory,ecosystem

The myth of the 1970s global cooling scientific consensus - Peterson, Thomas C.; Connolley, William M.; Fleck, John (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2008)
Climate science as we know it today did not exist in the 1960s and 1970s. The integrated enterprise embodied in the Nobel Prizewinning work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change existed then as separate threads of research pursued by isolated groups of scientists. Atmospheric chemists and modelers grappled with the measurement of changes in carbon dioxide and atmospheric gases, and the changes in climate that might result. Meanwhile, geologists and paleoclimate researchers tried to understand when Earth slipped into and out of ice ages, and why. An enduring popular myth suggests that in the 1970s the climate science community was predicting “global cooling” and an “imminent” ice age, an observation frequently used by those who would undermine what climate scientists say today about the prospect of global warming. A review of the literature suggests that, on the contrary, greenhouse warming even then dominated scientists' thinking as being one of the most important forces shaping Earth's climate on human time scales. More importantly than showing the falsehood of the myth, this review describes how scientists of the time built the foundation on which the cohesive enterprise of modern climate science now rests.

Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge - Peterson, T. C.; Heim, R. R.; Hirsch, R.; Kaiser, D. P.; Brooks, H.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Dole, R. M.; Giovannettone, J. P.; Guirguis, K.; Karl, T. R.; Katz, Richard W.; Kunkel, K.; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2013)

Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective - Peterson, Thomas C.; Hoerling, Martin P.; Stott, Peter A.; Herring, Stephanie C. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2013)