Climate Adaptation & Transportation: Identifying Information and Assistance Needs - CCAP and EESI (Center for Clean Air Policy and Environmental and Energy Study Institute, 2012)

Delivering Transformational Change: The Implementation Plan for the CARICOM "Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change" - CCCCC (Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), 2011)

Impact Assessment and National Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan to Address Climate Change in the Tourism Sector of Saint Lucia. Volumes I and II - CCCCC (Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), 2015)

Cold Climate Housing Research Center [web site] - CCHRC (2018)

Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research - CCSP (Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1, 2006)

The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research - CCSP (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2008)

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Study, Phase I. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research - CCSP (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2008)

Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research - CCSP (Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, 2008)

Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research - CCSP (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2009)

Heat-related deaths among crop workers—United States, 1992–2006 - CDC (MMWR: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 2008)
Workers employed in outdoor occupations such as farming are exposed to hot and humid environments that put them at risk for heat-related illness or death. This report describes one such death and summarizes heat-related fatalities among crop production workers in the United States during 1992--2006. During this 15-year period, 423 workers in agricultural and nonagricultural industries were reported to have died from exposure to environmental heat; 68 (16%) of these workers were engaged in crop production or support activities for crop production. The heat-related average annual death rate for these crop workers was 0.39 per 100,000 workers, compared with 0.02 for all U.S. civilian workers. Data aggregated into 5-year periods indicated that heat-related death rates among crop workers might be increasing; however, trend analysis did not indicate a statistically significant increase. Prevention of heat-related deaths among crop workers requires educating employers and workers on the hazards of working in hot environments, including recognition of heat-related illness symptoms, and implementing appropriate heat stress management measures.
Ch9
Keywords: Adult Agriculture/*statistics & numerical data Female Heat Stress Disorders/*mortality Humans Male Middle Aged Occupational Diseases/*mortality United States/epidemiology

CDC's Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) Framework [web site] - CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2015)

Hantavirus Disease, by State of Reporting - CDC (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2017)

Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever: Statistics and Epidemiology - CDC (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2017)

Leptospirosis: Risk of Exposure - CDC (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2017)

West Nile Virus: Final Cumulative Maps & Data for 1999-2016 - CDC (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2017)

Chikungunya Virus in the United States - CDC (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2017)

Advice for People Living in or Traveling to Brownsville, Texas - CDC (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2017)

Stats of the States [web site] - CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics, 2017)

2016 Water Master Plan - CDM Smith (Honolulu Board of Water Supply, 2016)

Putting a Price on Risk: Carbon Pricing in the Corporate World - CDP (CDP North America, 2015)

CDP web site - CDP (CDP, 2017)

Projections of the effects of climate change on allergic asthma: The contribution of aerobiology - Cecchi, L.; D’Amato, G.; Ayres, J. G.; Galan, C.; Forastiere, F.; Forsberg, B.; Gerritsen, J.; Nunes, C.; Behrendt, H.; Akdis, C.; Dahl, R.; Annesi-Maesano, I. (Allergy, 2010)

A Programme for Promoting Rainwater Harvesting in the Caribbean Region - CEHI (Caribbean Environmental Health Institute (CEHI), 2006)

Rainwater: Catch It While You Can. A Handbook on Rainwater Harvesting in the Caribbean - CEHI (Caribbean Environmental Health Institute (CEHI) for the United National Envrionment Programme (UNEP), 2009)

Integrated Assessment of Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico - CENR (National Science and Technology Council, Committee on Environment and National Resources, 2000)

Scientific Assessment of Hypoxia in U.S. Coastal Waters. Interagency Working Group on Harmful Algal Blooms, Hypoxia, and Human Health of the Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology - CENR (Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, 2010)

Press release: New Census Bureau Population Estimates Reveal Metro Areas and Counties That Propelled Growth in Florida and the Nation - Census Bureau (Census Newsroom, 2015)

Press kit: County and Metro Area Population - Census Bureau (Census Newsroom, 2017)

County Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010-2016 - Census Bureau (U.S. Census Bureau, 2017)

Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) [web site] - Census Bureau (U.S. Census Bureau, 2017)

U.S. Government, Defense Resource Hub [web site] - Center for Climate & Security (Center for Climate & Security, 2017)

Economic valuation of the coral reefs of Hawai‘i - Cesar, H.S.J.; van Beukering, P.J.H. (Pacific Science, 2004)
Hawai'i's coral reef ecosystems provide many goods and services to coastal populations, such as fisheries and tourism. They also form a unique natural ecosystem, with an important biodiversity value as well as scientific and educational value. Also, coral reefs form a natural protection against wave erosion. Without even attempting to measure their intrinsic value, this paper shows that coral reefs, if properly managed, contribute enormously to the welfare of Hawai'i through a variety of quantifiable benefits. Net benefits are estimated at $360 million a year for Hawai'i's economy, and the overall asset value of the state of Hawai'i's 1660 km2 (410,000 acres) of potential reef area in the main Hawaiian Islands is estimated at nearly $10 billion.
University of Hawaii Press

Comprehensive Amendment to the U.S. Caribbean Fishery Management Plans: Application of Accountability Measures (Including draft environmental assessment, regulatory impact review, regulatory flexibility act analysis, and fishery impact statement), Version 3.1 - CFMC (Caribbean Fishery Management Council (CFMC) and NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, 2015)

An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming - Chadburn, S. E.; Burke, E. J.; Cox, P. M.; Friedlingstein, P.; Hugelius, G.; Westermann, S. (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Regulated deficit irrigation for crop production under drought stress. A review - Chai, Qiang; Gan, Yantai; Zhao, Cai; Xu, Hui-Lian; Waskom, Reagan M.; Niu, Yining; Siddique, Kadambot H. M. (Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 2015)
Agriculture consumes more than two thirds of the total freshwater of the planet. This issue causes substantial conflict in freshwater allocation between agriculture and other economic sectors. Regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) is key technology because it helps to improve water use efficiency. Nonetheless, there is a lack of understanding of the mechanisms with which plants respond to RDI. In particular, little is known about how RDI might increase crop production while reducing the amount of irrigation water in real-world agriculture. In this review, we found that RDI is largely implemented through three approaches: (1) growth stage-based deficit irrigation, (2) partial root-zone irrigation, and (3) subsurface dripper irrigation. Among these, partial root-zone irrigation is the most popular and effective because many field crops and some woody crops can save irrigation water up to 20 to 30 % without or with a minimal impact on crop yield. Improved water use efficiency with RDI is mainly due to the following: (1) enhanced guard cell signal transduction network that decreases transpiration water loss, (2) optimized stomatal control that improves the photosynthesis to transpiration ratio, and (3) decreased evaporative surface areas with partial root-zone irrigation that reduces soil evaporation. The mechanisms involved in the plant response to RDI-induced water stress include the morphological traits, e.g., increased root to shoot ratio and improved nutrient uptake and recovery; physiological traits, e.g., stomatal closure, decreased leaf respiration, and maintained photosynthesis; and biochemical traits, e.g., increased signaling molecules and enhanced antioxidation enzymatic activity.

Climate change, plant diseases and food security: An overview - Chakraborty, S.; Newton, A.C. (Plant Pathology, 2011)

A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation - Challinor, A. J.; Watson, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Howden, S. M.; Smith, D. R.; Chhetri, N. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

Evaluation of the global mean sea level budget between 1993 and 2014 - Chambers, Don P.; Cazenave, Anny; Champollion, Nicolas; Dieng, Habib; Llovel, William; Forsberg, Rene; von Schuckmann, Karina; Wada, Yoshihide (Surveys in Geophysics, 2017)
Evaluating global mean sea level (GMSL) in terms of its components—mass and steric—is useful for both quantifying the accuracy of the measurements and understanding the processes that contribute to GMSL rise. In this paper, we review the GMSL budget over two periods—1993 to 2014 and 2005 to 2014—using multiple data sets of both total GMSL and the components (mass and steric). In addition to comparing linear trends, we also compare the level of agreement of the time series. For the longer period (1993–2014), we find closure in terms of the long-term trend but not for year-to-year variations, consistent with other studies. This is due to the lack of sufficient estimates of the amount of natural water mass cycling between the oceans and hydrosphere. For the more recent period (2005–2014), we find closure in both the long-term trend and for month-to-month variations. This is also consistent with previous studies.

Economics of adaptation - Chambwera, M.; Heal, G.; Dubeux, C.; Hallegatte, S.; Leclerc, L.; Markandya, A.; McCarl, B. A.; Mechler, R.; Neumann, J. E. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 2014)

Associations between sociodemographics and green infrastructure placement in Portland, Oregon - Chan, Alisha Y.; Hopkins, Kristina G. (Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment, 2017)
Keywords: NEW adaptation green infrastructure social vulnerability

Persistent spatial structuring of coastal ocean acidification in the California Current System - Chan, F.; Barth, J. A.; Blanchette, C. A.; Byrne, R. H.; Chavez, F.; Cheriton, O.; Feely, R. A.; Friederich, G.; Gaylord, B.; Gouhier, T.; Hacker, S.; Hill, T.; et al. (Scientific Reports, 2017)
The near-term progression of ocean acidification (OA) is projected to bring about sharp changes in the chemistry of coastal upwelling ecosystems. The distribution of OA exposure across these early-impact systems, however, is highly uncertain and limits our understanding of whether and how spatial management actions can be deployed to ameliorate future impacts. Through a novel coastal OA observing network, we have uncovered a remarkably persistent spatial mosaic in the penetration of acidified waters into ecologically-important nearshore habitats across 1,000 km of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. In the most severe exposure hotspots, suboptimal conditions for calcifying organisms encompassed up to 56% of the summer season, and were accompanied by some of the lowest and most variable pH environments known for the surface ocean. Persistent refuge areas were also found, highlighting new opportunities for local adaptation to address the global challenge of OA in productive coastal systems.

Emergence of anoxia in the California Current large marine ecosystem - Chan, F.; Barth, J.A.; Lubchenco, J.; Kirincich, A.; Weeks, H.; Peterson, W.T.; Menge, B.A. (Science, 2008)
Keywords: HYPOXIA

Food security in Nunavut, Canada: Barriers and recommendations - Chan, Hing Man; Fediuk, Karen; Hamilton, Sue; Rostas, Laura; Caughey, Amy; Kuhnlein, Harriet; Egeland, Grace; Loring, Eric (International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 2006)

The Effects of Climate on Leisure Demand: Evidence from North America - Chan, Nathan W.; Wichman, Casey J. (Resources for the Future, 2017)
There is extensive research documenting the economic consequences of climate change, yet our understanding of climate impacts on nonmarket activities remains incomplete. Here, we investigate the effect of weather on leisure demand. Using data from 27 million bicycle trips in 16 North American cities, we estimate how outdoor recreation responds to daily weather fluctuations. Combining these estimates with time-use survey data and climate projections, we project annual surplus gains of $894 million from climate-induced cycling by mid-century. Extrapolating to a broad measure of outdoor recreation, our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest climate-induced benefits of $20.7 billion per year.

A statistical modeling framework for projecting future ambient ozone and its health impact due to climate change - Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt (Atmospheric Environment, 2014)
Ch3

Advancing Past “Baseload” to a Flexible Grid: How Grid Planners and Power Markets Are Better Defining System Needs to Achieve a Cost-Effective and Reliable Supply Mix - Chang, Judy W.; Aydin, Mariko Geronimo; Pfeifenberger, Johannes; Spees, Kathleen; Pedtke, John Imon (The Brattle Group, 2017)

Impacts of the 2008 floods on railroads in Illinois and adjacent states - Changnon, Stanley (Transactions of the Illinois State Academy of Science, 2009)

Community-empowered adaptation for self-reliance - Chapin, F. S.; Knapp, C. N.; Brinkman, T. J.; Bronen, R.; Cochran, P. (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2016)

Ch. 22: Alaska - Chapin III, F. Stuart; Trainor, Sarah F.; Cochran, Patricia; Huntington, Henry; Markon, Carl; McCammon, Molly; McGuire, A. David; Serreze, Mark (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Plant adaptation to climate change—Opportunities and priorities in breeding - Chapman, Scott C.; Chakraborty, Sukumar; Dreccer, M. Fernanda; Howden, S. Mark (Crop and Pasture Science, 2012)

Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment - Chapra, Steven C.; Boehlert, Brent; Fant, Charles; Bierman, Victor J.; Henderson, Jim; Mills, David; Mas, Diane M. L.; Rennels, Lisa; Jantarasami, Lesley; Martinich, Jeremy; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Paerl, Hans W. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2017)

Miller's Reach Fire Strategic Economic Recovery Plan: Final Revised Plan - Charles E. Nash and Associates; Duffy, John (Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Department of Planning, 1997)

Understanding the October 2015 Charleston Floods: A Symposium Report - Charleston Resilience Network (Charleston Resilience Network, 2016)
Keywords: added by ERG; Charleston

Observed changes in climate and streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande basin - Chavarria, Shaleene B.; Gutzler, David S. (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2018)
Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model-based projections of 21st-Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958–2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in the April–July snowmelt runoff season. Small increases in precipitation have reduced the impact of declining snowpack on trends in streamflow. Changes in the snowpack–runoff relationship are noticeable in hydrographs of mean monthly streamflow, but are most apparent in the changing ratios of precipitation (rain + snow, and SWE) to streamflow and in the declining fraction of runoff attributable to snowpack or winter precipitation. The observed changes provide observational confirmation for model projections of decreasing runoff attributable to snowpack, and demonstrate the decreasing utility of snowpack for predicting subsequent streamflow on a seasonal basis in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.

An end-to-end assessment of extreme weather impacts on food security - Chavez, Erik; Conway, Gordon; Ghil, Michael; Sadler, Marc (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Readying California Fisheries for Climate Change - Chavez, Francisco P.; Costello, Christopher; Aseltine-Neilson, Debbie; Doremus, Holly; Field, John C.; Gaines, Steve D.; Hall-Arber, Madeleine; Mantua, Nathan J.; Pomeroy, Carrie; Sievanen, Leila; Sydeman, William; Wayne-McCovey, Barry; et al. (California Ocean Science Trust, 2017)
Broader web site: http://www.oceansciencetrust.org/projects/climate-change-and-california-fisheries/

Potential impact of climate change scenarios on whooping crane life history - Chavez-Ramirez, Felipe; Wehtje, Walter (Wetlands, 2012)
Whooping crane (Grus americana), a rare and critically endangered species, are wetland dependent throughout their life cycle. The whooping crane’s small population size, limited distribution, and wetland habitat requirements make them vulnerable to potential climate changes. Climate change predictions suggest overall temperature increases and significant changes in precipitation regimes throughout North America. At the individual level, temperature changes should have neutral to positive effects on thermoregulation and overall energy expenditure throughout the whooping crane’s range. In the breeding grounds, earlier snow melt and increasing temperatures should improve food resources. However, increased precipitation and more extreme rainfall events could impact chick survival if rainfall occurs during hatching. Increased precipitation may also alter fire regimes leading to increased woody plant abundance thus reducing nesting habitat quality. During winter, higher temperatures will lead to a northward shifting of the freeze line, which will decrease habitat quality via invasion of black mangrove. Large portions of current winter habitat may be lost if predicted sea level changes occur. Stopover wetland availability during migration may decrease due to drier conditions in the Great Plains. Current and future conservation actions should be planned in light of not only current needs but also considering future expectations.

Climate change impacts on tree ranges: Model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty - Cheaib, Alissar; Badeau, Vincent; Boe, Julien; Chuine, Isabelle; Delire, Christine; Dufrêne, Eric; François, Christophe; Gritti, Emmanuel S; Legay, Myriam; Pagé, Christian (Ecology Letters, 2012)

Robust optimization for transmission expansion planning: Minimax cost vs. minimax regret - Chen, B.; Wang, J.; Wang, L.; He, Y.; Wang, Z. (IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2014)
Keywords: minimax techniques power transmission planning climate change pressure generation expansion load growth minimax cost approach minimax regret approach policy changes power industry deregulation renewable energy penetration robust optimization paradigm transmission expansion planning trilevel optimization problems two-layer algorithm Load modeling Optimization Power generation planning Robustness Uncertainty Generation retirement minimax cost minimax regret robust optimization

Measuring the adaptation gap: A framework for evaluating climate hazards and opportunities in urban areas - Chen, Chen; Doherty, Meghan; Coffee, Joyce; Wong, Theodore; Hellmann, Jessica (Environmental Science & Policy, 2016)
Urban areas are increasingly seen as having distinct need for climate adaptation. Further, as resources are limited, it is essential to prioritize adaptation actions. At the municipal scale, we suggest that priorities be placed where there is a gap between adaption need and existing adaptation effort. Taking Seattle, USA, as an example, we present this gap in terms of four categories of adaptation options (no-regret, primary, secondary, and tertiary) for the three primary urban hazards—flooding, heat wave, and drought. To do so, we first establish current adaptation need by identifying and categorizing adaptation options. Next, we consider for each option the number of hazards addressed and benefit to and beyond climate adaptation, the projected magnitude of the hazards addressed, the projection’s uncertainty, and the required scale and irreversibility of investment. Third, we assessed Seattle’s current adaptation efforts by reviewing adaptation plans and related materials. Finally, we identify the distance or “gap” as the proportion of adaptation options not identified by existing adaptation plans. For Seattle, we categorized seven options as no-regret adaptation, five as primary, two as secondary, and three as tertiary. Each level’s adaptation gap highlights significant opportunities to take steps to reduce climate risks in key areas.
Keywords: NEW adaptation cities

Climate change and West Nile virus in a highly endemic region of North America - Chen, C. C.; Jenkins, E.; Epp, T.; Waldner, C.; Curry, P. S.; Soos, C. (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2013)
The Canadian prairie provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta have reported the highest human incidence of clinical cases of West Nile virus (WNV) infection in Canada. The primary vector for WVN in this region is the mosquito Culex tarsalis. This study used constructed models and biological thresholds to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of Cx. tarsalis and WNV infection rate in the prairie provinces under a range of potential future climate and habitat conditions. We selected one median and two extreme outcome scenarios to represent future climate conditions in the 2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) time slices. In currently endemic regions, the projected WNV infection rate under the median outcome scenario in 2050 raised 17.91 times (ranged from 1.29-27.45 times for all scenarios and time slices) comparing to current climate conditions. Seasonal availability of Cx. tarsalis infected with WNV extended from June to August to include May and September. Moreover, our models predicted northward range expansion for Cx. tarsalis (1.06-2.56 times the current geographic area) and WNV (1.08-2.34 times the current geographic area). These findings predict future public and animal health risk of WNV in the Canadian prairie provinces.
Keywords: West Nile virus Culex tarsalis climate change Canadian prairies spatial and temporal distribution habitat culex-tarsalis diptera infectious-diseases vector-borne boreal forest culicidae california canada risk transmission temperature

Mangroves as a major source of soil carbon storage in adjacent seagrass meadows - Chen, Guangcheng; Azkab, Muhammad Husni; Chmura, Gail L.; Chen, Shunyang; Sastrosuwondo, Pramudji; Ma, Zhiyuan; Dharmawan, I. Wayan Eka; Yin, Xijie; Chen, Bin (Scientific Reports, 2017)

Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming - Chen, I-Ching; Hill, Jane K.; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Roy, David B.; Thomas, Chris D. (Science, 2011)

The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States - Chen, J.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E.; Mass, C.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Lamarque, J. F.; O'Neill, S.; McKenzie, D.; Larkin, N. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2009)
ACP

The role of atmospheric forcing versus ocean advection during the extreme warming of the Northeast U.S. continental shelf in 2012 - Chen, Ke; Gawarkiewicz, Glen; Kwon, Young-Oh; Zhang, Weifeng G. (Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 2015)
Keywords: extreme temperature heat budget Northeast U.S. coastal ocean numerical modeling air-sea interaction climate change 4215 Climate and interannual variability 4219 Continental shelf and slope processes 4255 Numerical modeling 4504 Air/sea interactions 4313 Extreme events

Diagnosing the warming of the northeastern U.S. coastal ocean in 2012: A linkage between the atmospheric jet stream variability and ocean response - Chen, Ke; Gawarkiewicz, Glen G.; Lentz, Steven J.; Bane, John M. (Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 2014)
Keywords: 2012 warming warm anomaly Northeastern U.S. Coastal Ocean the jet stream 4217 Coastal processes 4219 Continental shelf and slope processes 4215 Climate and interannual variability 1637 Regional climate change 4504 Air/sea interactions

Does temperature-confounding control influence the modifying effect of air temperature in ozone–mortality associations? - Chen, Kai; Wolf, Kathrin; Hampel, Regina; Stafoggia, Massimo; Breitner, Susanne; Cyrys, Josef; Samoli, Evangelia; Andersen, Zorana Jovanovic; Bero-Bedada, Getahun; Bellander, Tom; Hennig, Frauke; Jacquemin, Bénédicte; et al. (Environmental Epidemiology, 2018)
Background: Recent epidemiological studies investigating the modifying effect of air temperature in ozone–mortality associations lack consensus as how to adjust for nonlinear and lagged temperature effect in addition to including an interaction term. Methods: We evaluated the influence of temperature confounding control on temperature-stratified ozone–mortality risks in a time series setting in eight European cities and 86 US cities, respectively. To investigate potential residual confounding, we additionally incorporated next day’s ozone in models with differing temperature control. Results: Using only a categorical variable for temperature or only controlling nonlinear effect of low temperatures yielded highly significant ozone effects at high temperatures but also significant residual confounding in both regions. Adjustment for nonlinear effect of temperature, especially high temperatures, substantially reduced ozone effects at high temperatures and residual confounding. Conclusions: Inadequate control for confounding by air temperature leads to residual confounding and an overestimation of the temperature-modifying effect in studies of ozone-related mortality.
Keywords: Modifying effect Mortality Ozone Temperature confounding

Health co-benefits and risks of public health adaptation strategies to climate change: A review of current literature - Cheng, J. J.; Berry, P. (International Journal of Public Health, 2013)
OBJECTIVES: Many public health adaptation strategies have been identified in response to climate change. This report reviews current literature on health co-benefits and risks of these strategies to gain a better understanding of how they may affect health. METHODS: A literature review was conducted electronically using English language literature from January 2000 to March 2012. Of 812 articles identified, 22 peer-reviewed articles that directly addressed health co-benefits or risks of adaptation were included in the review. RESULTS: The co-benefits and risks identified in the literature most commonly relate to improvements in health associated with adaptation actions that affect social capital and urban design. Health co-benefits of improvements in social capital have positive influences on mental health, independently of other determinants. Risks included reinforcing existing misconceptions regarding health. Health co-benefits of urban design strategies included reduced obesity, cardiovascular disease and improved mental health through increased physical activity, cooling spaces (e.g., shaded areas), and social connectivity. Risks included pollen allergies with increased urban green space, and adverse health effects from heat events through the use of air conditioning. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the current limited understanding of the full impacts of the wide range of existing climate change adaptation strategies, further research should focus on both unintended positive and negative consequences of public health adaptation.
Cheng, June J Berry, Peter Review Switzerland Int J Public Health. 2013 Apr;58(2):305-11. doi: 10.1007/s00038-012-0422-5. Epub 2012 Oct 31.
Keywords: Adaptation, Physiological Climate Change Humans Public Health Risk Factors

Nonstationary precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for infrastructure design in a changing climate - Cheng, Linyin; AghaKouchak, Amir (Scientific Reports, 2014)

Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate - Cheng, Linyin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Gilleland, Eric; Katz, Richard W. (Climatic Change, 2014)
This paper introduces a framework for estimating stationary and non-stationary return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes using Bayesian inference. This framework is implemented in the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) software package, explicitly designed to facilitate analysis of extremes in the geosciences. In a Bayesian approach, NEVA estimates the extreme value parameters with a Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) approach for global optimization over the parameter space. NEVA includes posterior probability intervals (uncertainty bounds) of estimated return levels through Bayesian inference, with its inherent advantages in uncertainty quantification. The software presents the results of non-stationary extreme value analysis using various exceedance probability methods. We evaluate both stationary and non-stationary components of the package for a case study consisting of annual temperature maxima for a gridded global temperature dataset. The results show that NEVA can reliably describe extremes and their return levels.

How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk? - Cheng, Linyin; Hoerling, Martin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Livneh, Ben; Quan, Xiao-Wei; Eischeid, Jon (Journal of Climate, 2016)
The current California drought has cast a heavy burden on statewide agriculture and water resources, further exacerbated by concurrent extreme high temperatures. Furthermore, industrial-era global radiative forcing brings into question the role of long-term climate change with regard to California drought. How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk? Here, observations and model experimentation are applied to characterize this drought employing metrics that synthesize drought duration, cumulative precipitation deficit, and soil moisture depletion. The model simulations show that increases in radiative forcing since the late nineteenth century induce both increased annual precipitation and increased surface temperature over California, consistent with prior model studies and with observed long-term change. As a result, there is no material difference in the frequency of droughts defined using bivariate indicators of precipitation and near-surface (10 cm) soil moisture, because shallow soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased evaporation driven by warming, which compensates the increase in the precipitation. However, when using soil moisture within a deep root zone layer (1 m) as covariate, droughts become less frequent because deep soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased precipitation. The results illustrate the different land surface responses to anthropogenic forcing that are relevant for near-surface moisture exchange and for root zone moisture availability. The latter is especially relevant for agricultural impacts as the deep layer dictates moisture availability for plants, trees, and many crops. The results thus indicate that the net effect of climate change has made agricultural drought less likely and that the current severe impacts of drought on California’s agriculture have not been substantially caused by long-term climate changes.
Keywords: Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Climate change,Models and modeling,Climate models,Regional models

Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015 - Cheng, Lijing; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John; Boyer, Tim; Abraham, John; Zhu, Jiang (Science Advances, 2017)
Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical record (that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the data-rich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished from sampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition, OHC changes in six major oceans are reliable on decadal time scales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significant warming since 1998, with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This new look at OHC and EEI changes over time provides greater confidence than previously possible, and the data sets produced are a valuable resource for further study.

2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean - Cheng, Lijing; Zhu, Jiang (Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018)

Climate change impacts on wave and surge processes in a Pacific Northwest (USA) estuary - Cheng, T. K.; Hill, D. F.; Beamer, J.; García-Medina, G. (Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 2015)
Keywords: hydrodynamic modeling estuarine processes climate interannual variability waves 4235 Estuarine processes 4534 Hydrodynamic modeling 4546 Nearshore processes 4560 Surface waves and tides 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges

Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding - Cheriton, Olivia M.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Rosenberger, Kurt J. (Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 2016)
Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observations captured two large wave events that had waves with maximum heights greater than 6 m with peak periods of 16 s over the fore reef. The larger event coincided with a peak spring tide, leading to energetic, highly skewed infragravity (0.04–0.004 Hz) and very low frequency (0.004–0.001 Hz) waves at the shoreline, which reached heights of 1.0 and 0.7 m, respectively. Water surface elevations, combined with wave runup, reached 3.7 m above the reef bed at the innermost reef flat adjacent to the toe of the beach, resulting in flooding of inland areas. This overwash occurred during a 3 h time window that coincided with high tide and maximum low-frequency reef flat wave heights. The relatively low-relief characteristics of this narrow reef flat may further drive shoreline amplification of low-frequency waves due to resonance modes. These results (1) demonstrate how the coupling of high offshore water levels with low-frequency reef flat wave energetics can lead to large impacts along fringing reef-lined shorelines, such as island overwash, and (2) lend support to the hypothesis that predicted higher sea levels will lead to more frequent occurrences of these extreme events, negatively impacting coastal resources and infrastructure.
Keywords: 4560 Surface waves and tides 4220 Coral reef systems 4546 Nearshore processes flooding 4321 Climate impact overwash coral reef sea level rise 4217 Coastal processes infragravity waves runup

About the Nation [web site] - Cherokee Nation (2018)

Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North - Cherry, Jessica E.; Knapp, Corrie; Trainor, Sarah; Ray, Andrea J.; Tedesche, Molly; Walker, Susan (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2017)
HESS

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Hydropower in Southeast Alaska: Planning for a Robust Energy Future - Cherry, J. E.; Walker, S.; Fresco, N.; Trainor, S.; Tidwell, A. (2010)
The useful lifespan of hydroelectric power infrastructure is 50 years or more; this is long enough that long-term climate change and shorter-term climate variability should be considered when planning new facilities and maintaining existing ones. This study examines observed historical climate variability in Southeast, Alaska, where several new and expanded hydropower facilities are proposed. Analysis suggests that climate trends in this region since the 1920s are modest, while trends since the mid-1940s are somewhat stronger. Sparse data collection increases the uncertainty associated with these trends. Variability in temperature, precipitation, snow, and discharge is largely dominated by random interannual fluctuations, as well as semi-decadal to decadal climate modes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The dominance of these modes of variability on the regional climate is useful for risk management because prediction tools exist for season-ahead forecasting. Longerterm climate trends, while smaller in magnitude, will likely lead to warmer and wetter conditions in the coming century. The persistence of a negative PDO may lead to cooler, drier conditions in the short term. Climate variability and change both have implications for shifts in the timing and magnitude of river discharge that could pose challenges to management of capacity-limited reservoir systems. An increasingly interconnected power grid in Southeast Alaska might help mediate these climate impacts, but there are still large data gaps that contribute to management risk. Enhanced monitoring of snow, temperature, runoff, and glacial melt, particularly at elevation and in the watersheds feeding hydropower reservoirs, could help operators reduce risk by eliminating some of the uncertainty about the relationships between climate and water resource availability.
Keywords: energy; Water Resources

Projecting future changes in distributions of pelagic fish species of Northeast Pacific shelf seas - Cheung, William W. L.; Brodeur, Richard D.; Okey, Thomas A.; Pauly, Daniel (Progress in Oceanography, 2015)

Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change - Cheung, William W. L.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Asch, Rebecca G.; Jones, Miranda C.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Rodgers, Keith B.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Stock, Charles; Watson, James R. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2016)
The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions.
10.1093/icesjms/fsv250

Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios - Cheung, William W.L.; Lam, Vicky W.Y.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Kearney, Kelly; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel (Fish and Fisheries, 2009)

Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change - Cheung, W.W.L.; Lam, V.W.Y.; Sarmiento, J.L.; Kearney, K.; Watson, REG; Zeller, D.; Pauly, D. (Global Change Biology, 2010)

Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target - Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Frölicher, Thomas L. (Science, 2016)
Keeping recent global agreements to limit temperature increases to 1.5° to 2°C above preindustrial levels will have benefits across terrestrial ecosystems. But what about marine ecosystems? Cheung et al. modeled the influence of temperature increases on two key measures of fishery sustainability, catch and species turnover (see the Perspective by Fulton). Limiting temperature increases to 1.5°C substantially improved catch potential and decreased turnover of harvested species. These results provide further support for meeting this important goal.Science, this issue p. 1591; see also p. 1530Translating the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial level into impact-related targets facilitates communication of the benefits of mitigating climate change to policy-makers and stakeholders. Developing ecologically relevant impact-related targets for marine ecosystem services, such as fisheries, is an important step. Here, we use maximum catch potential and species turnover as climate-risk indicators for fisheries. We project that potential catches will decrease by more than 3 million metric tons per degree Celsius of warming. Species turnover is more than halved when warming is lowered from 3.5° to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level. Regionally, changes in maximum catch potential and species turnover vary across ecosystems, with the biggest risk reduction in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic regions when the Paris Agreement target is achieved.

Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch - Cheung, William W. L.; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel (Nature, 2013)

Toward a phenological mismatch in estuarine pelagic food web? - Chevillot, Xavier; Drouineau, Hilaire; Lambert, Patrick; Carassou, Laure; Sautour, Benoit; Lobry, Jérémy (PLOS ONE, 2017)
Alterations of species phenology in response to climate change are now unquestionable. Until now, most studies have reported precocious occurrence of life cycle events as a major phenological response. Desynchronizations of biotic interactions, in particular predator-prey relationships, are however assumed to strongly impact ecosystems’ functioning, as formalized by the Match-Mismatch Hypothesis (MMH). Temporal synchronicity between juvenile fish and zooplankton in estuaries is therefore of essential interest since estuaries are major nursery grounds for many commercial fish species. The Gironde estuary (SW France) has suffered significant alterations over the last three decades, including two Abrupt Ecosystem Shifts (AES), and three contrasted intershift periods. The main objective of this study was to depict modifications in fish and zooplankton phenology among inter-shift periods and discuss the potential effects of the resulting mismatches at a community scale. A flexible Bayesian method was used to estimate and compare yearly patterns of species abundance in the estuary among the three pre-defined periods. Results highlighted (1) an earlier peak of zooplankton production and entrance of fish species in the estuary and (2) a decrease in residence time of both groups in the estuary. Such species-specific phenological changes led to changes in temporal overlap between juvenile fish and their zooplanktonic prey. This situation questions the efficiency and potentially the viability of nursery function of the Gironde estuary, with potential implications for coastal marine fisheries of the Bay of Biscay.

Mold and endotoxin levels in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: A pilot project of homes in New Orleans undergoing renovation - Chew, Ginger L.; Wilson, Jonathan; Rabito, Felicia A.; Grimsley, Faye; Iqbal, Shahed; Reponen, Tiina; Muilenberg, Michael L.; Thorne, Peter S.; Dearborn, Dorr G.; Morley, Rebecca L. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2006)
After Hurricane Katrina, many New Orleans homes remained flooded for weeks, promoting heavy microbial growth. OBJECTIVES: A small demonstration project was conducted November 2005–January 2006 aiming to recommend safe remediation techniques and safe levels of worker protection, and to characterize airborne mold and endotoxin throughout cleanup. METHODS: Three houses with floodwater lines between 0.3 and 2 m underwent intervention, including disposal of damaged furnishings and drywall, cleaning surfaces, drying remaining structure, and treatment with a biostatic agent. We measured indoor and outdoor bioaerosols before, during, and after intervention. Samples were analyzed for fungi [culture, spore analysis, polymerase chain reaction (PCR)] and endotoxin. In one house, real-time particle counts were also assessed, and respirator-efficiency testing was performed to establish workplace protection factors (WPF). RESULTS: At baseline, culturable mold ranged from 22,000 to 515,000 colony-forming units/m(3), spore counts ranged from 82,000 to 630,000 spores/m(3), and endotoxin ranged from 17 to 139 endotoxin units/m(3). Culture, spore analysis, and PCR indicated that Penicillium, Aspergillus, and Paecilomyces predominated. After intervention, levels of mold and endotoxin were generally lower (sometimes, orders of magnitude). The average WPF against fungal spores for elastomeric respirators was higher than for the N-95 respirators. CONCLUSIONS: During baseline and intervention, mold and endotoxin levels were similar to those found in agricultural environments. We strongly recommend that those entering, cleaning, and repairing flood-damaged homes wear respirators at least as protective as elastomeric respirators. Recommendations based on this demonstration will benefit those involved in the current cleanup activities and will inform efforts to respond to future disasters.

Influence of climate on the growth of hybrid poplar in Michigan - Chhin, S. (Forests, 2010)

Valuing simple multiple-exercise real options in infrastructure projects - Chiara, Nicola; Garvin, Michael J.; Vecer, Jan (Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2007)

Climate Adaptation Guidebook for Municipalities in the Chicago Region - Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) (CMAP, 2013)

Email exchange between Gordon Yellowman, Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribes in Oklahoma, and Daniel Wildcat, Haskell Indian Nations University - Chief Gordon Yellowman (2017)

Indigenous experiences in the U.S. with climate change and environmental stewardship in the Anthropocene - Chief, Karletta; Daigle, John J.; Lynn, Kathy; Whyte, Kyle Powys (Forest Conservation and Management in the Anthropocene: Conference Proceedings, 2014)

Engaging southwestern tribes in sustainable water resources topics and management - Chief, Karletta; Meadow, Alison; Whyte, Kyle (Water, 2016)

Spatiotemporal analysis of heat and heat wave effects on elderly mortality in Texas, 2006–2011 - Chien, Lung-Chang; Guo, Yuming; Zhang, Kai (Science of the Total Environment, 2016)
Keywords: Heat index Mortality Distributed lagged nonlinear model Spatial heterogeneity

Colorado Climate Change Vulnerability Study - Childress, Amber; Gordon, Eric; Jedd, Theresa; Klein, Roberta; Lukas, Jeff; McKeown, Rebecca (University of Colorado Boulder and Colorado State University, 2015)

Colorado Climate Change Vulnerability Study - Childress, Amber; Gordon, Eric; Jedd, Theresa; Klein, Roberta; Lukas, Jeff; McKeown, Rebecca (University of Colorado Boulder, 2015)

Impacts of climate change on operation of the US rail network - Chinowsky, Paul; Helman, Jacob; Gulati, Sahil; Neumann, James; Martinich, Jeremy (Transport Policy, 2017)

Assessment of climate change adaptation costs for the U.S. road network - Chinowsky, Paul S.; Price, Jason C.; Neumann, James E. (Global Environmental Change, 2013)
Keywords: Infrastructure Roads Degradation Economic impact

Mismatch between marine plankton range movements and the velocity of climate change - Chivers, William J.; Walne, Anthony W.; Hays, Graeme C. (Nature Communications, 2017)

Diabetes-related mortality among American Indians and Alaska Natives, 1990–2009 - Cho, Pyone; Geiss, Linda S.; Burrows, Nilka Rios; Roberts, Diana L.; Bullock, Ann K.; Toedt, Michael E. (American Journal of Public Health, 2014)
Objectives. We assessed diabetes-related mortality for American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) and Whites.Methods. Study populations were non-Hispanic AI/AN and White persons in Indian Health Service (IHS) Contract Health Service Delivery Area counties; Hispanics were excluded. We used 1990 to 2009 death certificate data linked to IHS patient registration records to identify AI/AN decedents aged 20 years or older. We examined disparities and trends in mortality related to diabetes as an underlying cause of death (COD) and as a multiple COD.Results. After increasing between 1990 and 1999, rates of diabetes as an underlying COD and a multiple COD subsequently decreased in both groups. However, between 2000 and 2009, age-adjusted rates of diabetes as an underlying COD and a multiple COD remained 2.5 to 3.5 times higher among AI/AN persons than among Whites for all age groups (20–44, 45–54, 55–64, 65–74, and ≥ 75 years), both sexes, and every IHS region except Alaska.Conclusions. Declining trends in diabetes-related mortality in both AI/AN and White populations are consistent with recent improvements in their health status. Reducing persistent disparities in diabetes mortality will require developing effective approaches to not only control but also prevent diabetes among AI/AN populations.

Climate change influences on crop mix shifts in the United States - Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A. (Scientific Reports, 2017)

Global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought - Choat, B.; Jansen, S.; Brodribb, T.J.; Cochard, H.; Delzon, S.; Bhaskar, R.; Bucci, S.J.; Feild, T.S.; Gleason, S.M.; Hacke, U.G.; Jacobsen, A.L.; Lens, F.; et al. (Nature, 2012)

Heat stress illness hospitalizations—Environmental public health tracking program, 20 States, 2001–2010 - Choudhary, Ekta; Vaidyanathan, Ambarish (MMWR Surveillance Summaries, 2014)

Sea-level variability and change in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands: Understanding the high sea levels during 2006–2008 - Chowdhury, Md Rashed; Barnston, Anthony G.; Guard, Charles ‘Chip’; Duncan, Sarah; Schroeder, Thomas A.; Chu, P. S. (Weather, 2010)

Finding the way to the top: How the composition of oceanic mid-trophic micronekton groups determines apex predator biomass in the central North Pacific - Choy, Anela; Wabnitz, Colette; Weijerman, Mariska; Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe; Polovina, Jeffrey (Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2016)
We updated and expanded a model of the pelagic ecosystem for the area of the central North Pacific occupied by the Hawaii-based longline fishery. Specifically, results from the most recent diet studies were used to expand the representation of the lesser-known non-target fish species (e.g. lancetfish, opah, snake mackerel) and 9 mid-trophic micronekton functional groups. The model framework Ecopath with Ecosim was used to construct an ecosystem energy budget and to examine how changes in the various micronekton groups impact apex predator biomass. Model results indicate that while micronekton fishes represented approximately 54% of micronekton biomass, they accounted for only 28% of the micronekton production. By contrast, crustaceans represented 24% of the biomass and accounted for 44% of production. Simulated ecosystem changes resulting from changes to micronekton groups demonstrated that crustaceans and mollusks are the most important direct trophic pathways to the top of the food web. Other groups appear to comprise relatively inefficient pathways or ‘trophic dead-ends’ that are loosely coupled to the top of the food web (e.g. gelatinous animals), such that biomass declines in these functional groups resulted in increased biomass at the highest trophic levels by increasing energy flow through more efficient pathways. Overall, simulated declines in the micronekton groups resulted in small changes in biomass at the very top of the food web, suggesting that this ecosystem is relatively ecologically resilient with diverse food web pathways. However, further understanding of how sensitive micronekton are to changes in ocean chemistry and temperature resulting from climate change is needed to fully evaluate and predict potential ecosystem changes.

Global climate anomalies and potential infectious disease risks: 2014-2015 - Chretien, Jean-Paul; Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer; Britch, Seth; Sanchez, Jose L.; Halbach, Alaina C.; Tucker, Compton; Linthicum, Kenneth J. (PLOS Currents Outbreaks, 2015)

Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change - Christensen, J.H.; Krishna Kumar, K.; Aldrian, E.; An, S.-I.; Cavalcanti, I.F.A.; de Castro, M.; Dong, W.; Goswami, P.; Hall, A.; Kanyanga, J.K.; Kitoh, A.; Kossin, J.; et al. (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

Fire regimes in southeastern ecosystems - Christensen, Norman L. (Fire Regimes and Ecosystem Properties, 1981)
Forest Service General Technical Report WO-26

A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin - Christensen, N. S.; Lettenmaier, D. P. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2007)

Drought and pluvial dipole events within the Great Plains of the United States - Christian, Jordan; Christian, Katarina; Basara, Jeffrey B. (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2015)
The purpose of this study was to quantify dipole events (a drought year followed by a pluvial year) for various spatial scales including the nine Oklahoma climate divisions and the author-defined regions of the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP), High Plains (HP), and Northern Great Plains (NGP). Analyses revealed that, on average, over twice as many standard deviation (STDEV) dipoles existed in the latter half of the dataset (1955–2013) relative to the first half (1896–1954), suggesting that dramatic increases in precipitation from one year to the next within the Oklahoma climate divisions are increasing with time. For the larger regions within the Great Plains of the United States, the percent chance of a significant pluvial year following a significant drought year was approximately 25% of the time for the SGP and NGP and approximately 16% of the time for the HP. The STDEV dipole analyses further revealed that the frequency of dipoles was consistent between the first and second half of the dataset for the NGP and HP but was increasing with time in the SGP. The temporal periods of anomalous precipitation during relative pluvial years within the STDEV dipole events were unique for each region whereby October occurred most frequently (70%) within the SGP, September occurred most frequently (60%) within the HP, and May occurred most frequently (62%) within the NGP.
Keywords: Drought,Precipitation,Interannual variability

Maladaptation to drought: A case report from California, USA - Christian-Smith, Juliet; Levy, Morgan C.; Gleick, Peter H. (Sustainability Science, 2015)
The interactions between natural water availability and societal water demand and management are complex. In response to gaps in empirical research of the adaptive capacity of social and environmental systems to climate stresses, we provide an assessment of responses to water scarcity during a multi-year drought in California. In particular, we use Barnett and O’Neill’s (Global Environ Change 20:211–213, 2010) criteria for maladaptation to examine responses in the agricultural and energy sectors to a multi-year (2007–2009) California drought. We conclude that despite evidence in both sectors of resiliency to the impacts of the drought, some of the coping strategies adopted increased the vulnerability of other systems. These other systems include California’s aquatic ecosystems and social groups that rely on those ecosystems for their health or employment; future generations whose resources were drawn down in the near-term, where otherwise those resources would have been available at a later time; and current and future generations who were, or will be, exposed to the effects of increased greenhouse gas emissions. This case study demonstrates that California’s current strategies for dealing with long or severe droughts are less successful than previously thought when short- and long-term impacts are evaluated together. This finding is particularly relevant given projections of more frequent and severe water shortages in the future due to climate change. This study recommends a shift from crisis-driven responses to the development and enactment of long-term mitigation measures that are anticipatory and focus on comprehensive risk reduction.

Climate change and financial instability: Risk disclosure and the problematics of neoliberal governance - Christophers, Brett (Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 2017)

Changes in precipitation extremes in the Hawaiian Islands in a warming climate - Chu, Pao-Shin; Chen, Ying Ruan; Schroeder, Thomas A. (Journal of Climate, 2010)
For the first time, trends of five climate change indices related to extreme precipitation events in the Hawaiian Islands are investigated using daily observational records from the 1950s to 2007. Four indices [simple daily intensity index (SDII), total number of day with precipitation ≥25.4 mm (R25), annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount (R5d), and the fraction of annual total precipitation from events exceeding the 1961–90 95th percentile (R95p)] describe the intensity (SDII), frequency (R25), and magnitude (R5d and R95p) of precipitation extremes, and the fifth index [consecutive dry days (CDD)] describes drought conditions. The annual probability density functions (PDFs) of precipitation indices for two epochs (i.e., 1950–79 and 1980–2007) are analyzed. Since the 1980s, there has been a change in the types of precipitation intensity, resulting in more frequent light precipitation and less frequent moderate and heavy precipitation intensity. The other three precipitation-related indices (R25, R5d, and R95p) demonstrate a shift toward the left of the distribution over time, suggesting shorter annual number of days with intense precipitation and smaller consecutive 5-day precipitation amounts and smaller fraction of annual precipitation due to events exceeding the 1961–90 95th percentile in the recent epoch relative to the first epoch. The changes of PDF distribution for SDII, R25, R5d, and CDD are significant at the 5% level according to a two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. A nonparametric trend analysis is then performed for four periods, with different starting years (e.g., the 1950s, the 1960s) but the same ending year (2007). Long-term downward trends are evident for four precipitation-related indices, and long-term upward trends are observed for CDD. Geographically, Kauai and Oahu are dominated by long-term decreasing trends for four precipitation-related indices, while increasing trends play the major role over the island of Hawaii. The upward trends of drought conditions in the long run are predominant on all the major Hawaiian Islands. To investigate whether the trends are stable throughout the time, the derivatives of trends for each of the 30-yr running series are calculated (e.g., 1950–79, 1951–80, … , 1978–2007) for four precipitation-related indices at each station. For Kauai and Oahu, positive derivatives prevail for all indices in the presence of long-term negative trends, suggestive of a phase change in precipitation extremes and such extremes showing an upswing recently. For the island of Hawaii, there is also an indication of phase reversal over the last 60 yr, with negative derivatives occurring in the presence of the background positive trends. A positive relationship is found between the precipitation indices and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI), implying more precipitation extremes during La Niña years and vice versa for El Niño years. Spatial patterns of standardized anomalies of indices are presented for the La Niña/−PDO minus El Niño/+PDO composites.

Urban heat islands and cooler infrastructure—Measuring near-surface temperatures with hand-held infrared cameras - Chui, Andrew C.; Gittelson, Alexei; Sebastian, Elizabeth; Stamler, Natasha; Gaffin, Stuart R. (Urban Climate, 2018)
Keywords: Urban heat island White roofs Green infrastructure Surface temperature Air temperature Infrared thermography

Spatial statistical analysis and simulation of the urban heat island in high-density central cities - Chun, B.; Guldmann, J. M. (Landscape and Urban Planning, 2014)
Keywords: Urban heat island Remotely sensed temperatures 3-D city model Spatial regression Neighboring effects Simulation of greening strategies

Screening for social determinants of health among children and families living in poverty: A guide for clinicians - Chung, Esther K.; Siegel, Benjamin S.; Garg, Arvin; Conroy, Kathleen; Gross, Rachel S.; Long, Dayna A.; Lewis, Gena; Osman, Cynthia J.; Jo Messito, Mary; Wade, Roy; Shonna Yin, H.; Cox, Joanne; et al. (Current Problems in Pediatric and Adolescent Health Care, 2016)

Transforming America’s Power Industry: The Investment Challenge 2010-2030 - Chupka, Marc W.; Earle, Robert; Fox-Penner, Peter; Hledik, Ryan (The Edison Foundation, 2008)

Sea level change - Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; et al. (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise - Church, John A.; White, Neil J. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2006)
Keywords: 1620 Climate dynamics 1635 Oceans 4215 Climate and interannual variability 4556 Sea level: variations and mean

Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century - Church, J.A.; White, N.J. (Surveys in Geophysics, 2011)

Revisiting the Earth’s sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008 - Church, J. A.; White, N.J.; Konikow, L.F.; Domingues, C.M.; Cogley, J.G.; Rignot, E.; Gregory, J.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Monaghan, A.J.; Velicogna, I. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2011)
We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr−1) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr−1), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr−1. The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr−1), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of −0.1 mm yr−1. Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earth's energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as −0.8 ± 0.4 W m−2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity.
Keywords: aerosol; energy budget; sea level; 0720 Cryosphere: Glaciers; 0726 Cryosphere: Ice sheets; 1641 Global Change: Sea level change (1222, 1225, 4304, 4556); 4556 Oceanography: Physical: Sea level: variations and mean (1222, 1225, 1641)

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean - Chust, Guillem; Allen, J. Icarus; Bopp, Laurent; Schrum, Corinna; Holt, Jason; Tsiaras, Kostas; Zavatarelli, Marco; Chifflet, Marina; Cannaby, Heather; Dadou, Isabelle; Daewel, Ute; Wakelin, Sarah L.; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Keywords: ecosystem model food web plankton primary production sea warming trophic amplification

The World Factbook - CIA (U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 2017)

Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles - Ciais, P.; Sabine, C.; Bala, G.; Bopp, L.; Brovkin, V.; Canadell, J.; Chhabra, A.; DeFries, R.; Galloway, J.; Heimann, M.; Jones, C.; Le Quéré, C.; et al. (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes - Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Vulnerability of coastal communities to key impacts of climate change on coral reef fisheries - Cinner, J. E.; McClanahan, T. R.; Graham, N. A. J.; Daw, T. M.; Maina, J.; Stead, S. M.; Wamukota, A.; Brown, K.; Bodin, Ö (Global Environmental Change, 2012)
Keywords: Vulnerability Fisheries Coral bleaching Global climate change Social-ecological systems Resilience Coral reef

Mass loss of glaciers and ice caps from GRACE during 2002-2015 - Ciraci, Enrico; Velicogna, Isabella; Wahr, John M.; Swenson, Sean C. (2015 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting, 2015)
We use time series of time-variable gravity from the NASA/DLR GRACE mission using a mascon approach to estimate the ice mass balance of the Earth’s Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps (GICs), excluding the Antarctic and the Greenland peripheral glaciers, between January 2003 and October 2014. We estimate a total ice mass loss equal to -217 ± 33 Gt/yr, equivalent to a sea level rise of 0.6±0.09 mm/yr. The global signal is driven by a few regions, contributing to almost of 75% of the total ice mass loss. Among these areas, the main contributor is the Canadian Arctic Archipelago with a total mass loss of -75 ± 9 Gt/yr, followed by Alaska (-51 ± 10 Gt/yr), Patagonia (-26 ± 10 Gt/yr) and the High Mountains of Asia (-25 ± 13 Gt/yr). The mass loss for most of the arctic regions is not constant, but accelerates with time. The Canadian Archipelago, in particular, undergoes a strong acceleration in mass waste (-7±1 Gt/yr2). The signal acceleration is mainly driven by the northern located Queen Elisabeth Islands (-4.5 ± 0.6 Gt/yr2). A similar behavior is observed for Svalbard and the Russian Arctic. In this second case, however, we observe an enhanced mass loss starting from the second decade of the 21st century after a period of nearly stable mass balance. The observed acceleration helps reconcile regional ice mass estimates obtained for different time periods.

The South Carolina Floods of October 2015 - CISA (Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA), 2016)

Climate Action Plan - City of Atlanta (Mayor's Office of Sustainability, 2015)

Resilient Atlanta: Actions to Build a More Equitable Future - City of Atlanta (100 Resilient Cities, 2017)

Boise City Opens National Precedent Setting Phosphorus Removal Facility - City of Boise (City of Boise, Public Works, 2016)

Climate Resiliency Guidance and Checklist - City of Boston (Boston Planning and Development Agency, 2017)

Sea Level Rise Strategy - City of Charleston (Mayor's Office, 2015)

Chicago Climate Action Plan: Our City. Our Future - City of Chicago (2008)

City Unveils “Greenest Street in America” in Pilsen Neighborhood - City of Chicago (City of Chicago Department of Transportation, 2012)

Green Stormwater Infrastructure Strategy - City of Chicago (2014)

Combined Sewers - City of Chicago (Department of Buildings, 2017)

Flood Preparedness [web site] - City of Chicago (Office of Emergency Management and Communications, 2018)

Upper Bee Branch Creek Restoration - City of Dubuque (2017)

Arkansans Can Take Steps to Respond to Climate Change - City of Fayetteville (2017)

2015 Climate Action Plan Framework - City of Fort Collins (2015)

One water LA [web site] - City of Los Angeles (2018)

City of Minneapolis Tree Cell Installation—Marq2 Project - City of Minneapolis (Public Works, 2009)

A Stronger, More Resilient New York - City of New York (2013)
Keywords: added by ERG

Norfolk Vision 2100 - City of Norfolk (2016)

Growing Stronger: Towards a Climate-Ready Philadelphia - City of Philadelphia (Mayor's Office of Sustainability, 2015)

Resilient Pittsburgh - City of Pittsburgh (100 Resilient Cities and Rockefeller Foundation, 2016)

ONE PGH: Pittsburgh’s Resilience Strategy - City of Pittsburgh (Department of City Planning, 2017)

Pittsburgh Climate Action Plan 3.0 - City of Pittsburgh (City Council, 2018)

Portland’s Green Infrastructure: Quantifying the Health, Energy, and Community Livability Benefits. Prepared by ENTRIX - City of Portland (City of Portland Bureau of Environmental Services, 2010)

Climate Change Preparation Strategy: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment - City of Portland and Multnomah County (City of Portland and Multnomah County, 2014)

Sea Level Rise Action Plan - City of San Francisco (City and County of San Francisco, 2016)
Broader web site: http://sf-planning.org/sea-level-rise-action-plan

Seattle 2035 Comprehensive Plan: Managing Growth to Become an Equitable and Sustainable City 2015–2035 - City of Seattle (2016)

Lessons Learned From [Hurricane] Irene: Climate Change, Federal Disaster Relief, and Barriers to Adaptive Reconstruction - Clancy, Justin B.; Grannis, Jessica (Georgetown Climate Center, 2013)

Glaciological measurements and mass balances from Sperry Glacier, Montana, USA, years 2005–2015 - Clark, A. M.; Fagre, D. B.; Peitzsch, E. H.; Reardon, B. A.; Harper, J. T. (Earth System Science Data, 2017)
ESSD

Nations and the Wealth of Cities: A New Phase in Public Policy - Clark, Greg; Clark, Greg (Centre for London, 2014)
ISBN 9780957691254

More than the sum of the parts: Forest climate response from joint species distribution models - Clark, James S.; Gelfand, Alan E.; Woodall, Christopher W.; Zhu, Kai (Ecological Applications, 2014)
Keywords: biodiversity climate change species abundance species distributions species occurrence species presence/absence zero inflation

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States - Clark, James S.; Iverson, Louis; Woodall, Christopher W.; Allen, Craig D.; Bell, David M.; Bragg, Don C.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Davis, Frank W.; Hersh, Michelle H.; Ibanez, Ines; Jackson, Stephen T.; Matthews, Stephen; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Keywords: climate change drought forest dieback forest management

Alaska Fire Management: From Hazard Fuel to Biofuel - Clark, Maureen (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2013)

The last glacial maximum - Clark, Peter U.; Dyke, Arthur S.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Carlson, Anders E.; Clark, Jorie; Wohlfarth, Barbara; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Hostetler, Steven W.; McCabe, A. Marshall (Science, 2009)
Global sea level rises and falls as ice sheets and glaciers melt and grow, providing an integrated picture of the changes in ice volume but little information about how much individual ice fields are contributing to those variations. Knowing the regional structure of ice variability during glaciations and deglaciations will clarify the mechanisms of the glacial cycle. Clark et al. (p. 710) compiled and analyzed more than 5000 radiocarbon and cosmogenic surface exposure ages in order to develop a record of maximum regional ice extent around the time of the Last Glacial Maximum. The responses of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres differed significantly, which reveals how the evolution of specific ice sheets affected sea level and provides insight into how insolation controlled the deglaciation.We used 5704 14C, 10Be, and 3He ages that span the interval from 10,000 to 50,000 years ago (10 to 50 ka) to constrain the timing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in terms of global ice-sheet and mountain-glacier extent. Growth of the ice sheets to their maximum positions occurred between 33.0 and 26.5 ka in response to climate forcing from decreases in northern summer insolation, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric CO2. Nearly all ice sheets were at their LGM positions from 26.5 ka to 19 to 20 ka, corresponding to minima in these forcings. The onset of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation 19 to 20 ka was induced by an increase in northern summer insolation, providing the source for an abrupt rise in sea level. The onset of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet occurred between 14 and 15 ka, consistent with evidence that this was the primary source for an abrupt rise in sea level ~14.5 ka.

Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change - Clark, Peter U.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Mix, Alan C.; Eby, Michael; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders; Milne, Glenn A.; Pfister, Patrik L.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Schrag, Daniel P.; Solomon, Susan; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)
Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies [mdash] not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.

From theory to practice: A Canadian case study of the utility of climate change adaptation frameworks to address health impacts - Clarke, Kaila-Lea; Berry, Peter (International Journal of Public Health, 2012)
It is now recognized that climate change affects human health. The question is how to adapt. This article examines mainstreaming climate considerations into public health programs and the utility of climate change and health adaptation frameworks, using Ontario, Canada, as a case study.

Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations—US Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1a. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 - Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Jacoby, H.; Pitcher, H.; Reilly, J; Richels, R. (U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, 2007)

Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures - Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong; Marten, Elke Hodson; Horowitz, Russell; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Mignone, Bryan K.; Mundra, Anupriya; Zhou, Yuyu (Energy Economics, 2018)
Keywords: Climate change impacts Integrated assessment Buildings energy demand

Assessing transformation pathways - Clarke, L; Jiang, K; Akimoto, K; Babiker, M; Blanford, G; Fisher-Vanden, K; Hourcade, J-C; Krey, V; Kriegler, E; Löschel, A; McCollum, D; Paltsev, S; et al. (Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014)

Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems - Clarke, L.; Nichols, L.; Vallario, R.; Hejazi, M.; Horing, J.; Janetos, A.C.; Mach, K.; Mastrandrea, M.; Orr, M.; Preston, B.L.; Reed, P.; Sands, R.D.; et al. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Defining “fishing communities”: Vulnerability and the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act - Clay, Patricia M.; Olson, Julia (Human Ecology Review, 2008)

Mental Health and Our Changing Climate: Impacts, Implications, and Guidance - Clayton, Susan; Manning, Christie; Krygsman, Kirra; Speiser, Meighen (American Psychological Association and ecoAmerica, 2017)

Beyond Storms & Droughts: The Psychological Impacts of Climate Change - Clayton, S.; Manning, C.M.; Hodge, C. (American Psychological Association and ecoAmerica, 2014)

Surviving and Thriving in the Face of Rising Seas: Building Resilience for Communities on the Front Lines of Climate Change - Cleetus, Rachel; Bueno, Ramón; Dahl, Kristina (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2015)

Managing for the Future in a Rapidly Changing Arctic: A Report to the President - Clement, Joel P.; Bengtson, John L.; Kelly, Brendan P. (Interagency Working Group on Coordination of Domestic Energy Development and Permitting in Alaska, 2013)

About Peaches - Clemson Cooperative Extension (Clemson University, 2018)

The Cleveland Tree Plan - Cleveland (Cleveland Forest Coalition, 2015)

Exposure to air pollution and cognitive functioning across the life course—A systematic literature review - Clifford, Angela; Lang, Linda; Chen, Ruoling; Anstey, Kaarin J.; Seaton, Anthony (Environmental Research, 2016)
Keywords: Air pollution Cognition Neurodevelopment

The Age of Western Wildfires - Climate Central (Climate Central, 2012)

Canada in a Changing Climate: Assessments - Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division (CCIAD) (Natural Resources Canada, 2017)

Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) [web site] - Climate Program Office (NOAA Climate Program Office, 2018)

Climate Ready Boston: Final Report - Climate Ready Boston Steering Committee (City of Boston, 2016)

Climate Science Centers [web site] - Climate Science Centers (U.S. Geological Survey, 2018)

Investing For Resilience - ClimateWise (University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, 2016)

Climate change expands the spatial extent and duration of preferred thermal habitat for Lake Superior fishes - Cline, Timothy J.; Bennington, Val; Kitchell, James F. (PLOS ONE, 2013)
Climate change is expected to alter species distributions and habitat suitability across the globe. Understanding these shifting distributions is critical for adaptive resource management. The role of temperature in fish habitat and energetics is well established and can be used to evaluate climate change effects on habitat distributions and food web interactions. Lake Superior water temperatures are rising rapidly in response to climate change and this is likely influencing species distributions and interactions. We use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model that captures temperature changes in Lake Superior over the last 3 decades to investigate shifts in habitat size and duration of preferred temperatures for four different fishes. We evaluated habitat changes in two native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) ecotypes, siscowet and lean lake trout, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and walleye (Sander vitreus). Between 1979 and 2006, days with available preferred thermal habitat increased at a mean rate of 6, 7, and 5 days per decade for lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye, respectively. Siscowet lake trout lost 3 days per decade. Consequently, preferred habitat spatial extents increased at a rate of 579, 495 and 419 km2 per year for the lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye while siscowet lost 161 km2 per year during the modeled period. Habitat increases could lead to increased growth and production for three of the four fishes. Consequently, greater habitat overlap may intensify interguild competition and food web interactions. Loss of cold-water habitat for siscowet, having the coldest thermal preference, could forecast potential changes from continued warming. Additionally, continued warming may render more suitable conditions for some invasive species.

Climate impacts on landlocked sea lamprey: Implications for host-parasite interactions and invasive species management - Cline, Timothy J.; Kitchell, James F.; Bennington, Val; McKinley, Galen A.; Moody, Eric K.; Weidel, Brian C. (Ecosphere, 2014)
Keywords: adaptive management climate change Great Lakes host invasive species Lake Superior lake trout parasite sea lamprey

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of climate change - Cloern, J.E.; Knowles, N.; Brown, L.R.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Morgan, T.L.; Schoellhamer, D.H.; Stacey, M.T.; van der Wegen, M.; Wagner, R.W.; Jassby, A.D. (PLOS ONE, 2011)

Management of Stored Grain with Aeration [web site] - Cloud, Harold A.; Morey, R. Vance (University of Minnesota Extension, 2017)

Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: A response to recent warming - Clow, D.W. (Journal of Climate, 2010)

Crissy Field + Sea Level Rise-Up: Presentation to Community Workshop - CMG Landscape Architecture (CMG Landscape Architecture, 2016)

National Security and the Threat of Climate Change - CNA Corporation (CNA Corporation, 2007)

National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change - CNA Military Advisory Board (CNA Corporation, 2014)

Louisiana’s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast - Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana (Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana, 2017)

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems - Coates, Peter S.; Ricca, Mark A.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Kroger, Travis; Blomberg, Erik J.; Hagen, Christian A.; Casazza, Michael L. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass–fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

Winter-to-summer precipitation phasing in southwestern North America: A multicentury perspective from paleoclimatic model-data comparisons - Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I. (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2015)
Keywords: paleoclimate North American monsoon teleconnection 0429 Climate dynamics 1854 Precipitation 3344 Paleoclimatology 3335 North Amercan Monsoon 4522 ENSO

Indigenous frameworks for observing and responding to climate change in Alaska - Cochran, Patricia; Huntington, Orville H.; Pungowiyi, Caleb; Tom, Stanley; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Huntington, Henry P.; Maynard, Nancy G.; Trainor, Sarah F. (Climatic Change, 2013)

Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation - Coffel, E.; Horton, R. (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2015)
Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type, there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and to significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions, especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, it was found that the number of weight-restriction days between May and September will increase by 50%–200% at four major airports in the United States by 2050–70 under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a negative economic effect on the airline industry. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation. Planning for changes in extreme heat events will help the aviation industry to reduce its vulnerability to this aspect of climate change.
Keywords: Extreme events,Climate change,Economic value,Societal impacts

The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance - Coffel, Ethan D.; Thompson, Terence R.; Horton, Radley M. (Climatic Change, 2017)
Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10–30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high temperatures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

Assessing the effects of climate change on waterborne microorganisms: Implications for EU and U.S. water policy - Coffey, Rory; Benham, Brian; Krometis, Leigh-Anne; Wolfe, Mary Leigh; Cummins, Enda (Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 2014)

An observational analysis: Tropical relative to Arctic influence on midlatitude weather in the era of Arctic amplification - Cohen, Judah (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
The tropics, in general, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in particular are almost exclusively relied upon for seasonal forecasting. Much less considered and certainly more controversial is the idea that Arctic variability is influencing midlatitude weather. However, since the late 1980s and early 1990s, the Arctic has undergone the most rapid warming observed globally, referred to as Arctic amplification (AA), which has coincided with an observed increase in extreme weather. Analysis of observed trends in hemispheric circulation over the period of AA more closely resembles variability associated with Arctic boundary forcings than with tropical forcing. Furthermore, analysis of intraseasonal temperature variability shows that the cooling in midlatitude winter temperatures has been accompanied by an increase in temperature variability and not a decrease, popularly referred to as “weather whiplash.”

Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States - Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A. (Nature Communications, 2018)
Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather—including both cold spells and heavy snows—became more frequent in the eastern United States.

Preventing disaster: Home ignitability in the wildland-urban interface - Cohen, Jack D. (Journal of Forestry, 2000)
Wildland-urban interface (W-UI) fires are a significant concern for federal, state, and local land management and fire agencies. Research using modeling, experiments, and W-UI case studies indicates that home ignitability during wildland fires depends on the characteristics of the home and its immediate surroundings. These findings have implications for hazard assessment and risk mapping, effective mitigations, and identification of appropriate responsibility for reducing the potential for home loss caused by W-UI fires.

Energy Down the Drain: The Hidden Costs of California’s Water Supply - Cohen, Ronnie; Wolff, Gary; Nelson, Barry (Pacific Institute, Natural Resources Defense Council, 2004)

Seems like I hardly see them around anymore: Historical geographies of riparian change along the Wind River - Cohn, Teresa Cavazos; Wyckoff, William; Rinella, Matt; Eitel, Jan (Water History, 2016)
Riparian areas—and the cottonwoods, water birch, bull berry, and currants that flourish within them—hold special significance for Tribes of the Intermountain American West. These species have served ceremonial and practical purposes for generations. Yet cottonwoods have experienced well-documented declines over the past several decades, and serve as indicators of overall riparian change. Research generally attributes this shift to the development of water control infrastructure, altered flood regimes, invasive species, and grazing, and rightfully so. Less attention has been paid to the cultural and historical geographies underlying these vectors of change. This research focuses on the Wind River as a case study to examine the cultural and historical factors related to riparian change. Using remote sensing, interviews and document analysis, we specifically examine boundaries between tribal/non-tribal lands along the Wind River and (1) heterogeneous patterns of riparian change, (2) significant differences in settlement patterns and the development of water infrastructure, and (3) distinct differences in water governance and its power relationships. We conclude that riparian change is heterogeneous; differs temporally, spatially, and between cultural boundaries; and relates to a socio-ecological interplay of values, practices, and policies that underlie water control, flood regime change, and proliferation of invasive species. Ultimately this research suggests that examinations of riparian change would benefit from additional in depth analyses of cultural and historical geographies, and their temporal and spatial relationships. Furthermore, tribal sovereignty over land and water may have significant impacts on overall landscape mosaics, particularly regarding the maintenance of species that support traditional lifeways.

Social indicators of gentrification pressure in fishing communities: A context for social impact assessment - Colburn, Lisa L.; Jepson, Michael (Coastal Management, 2012)