How Ethiopia averted widespread famine: Resilience in the face of El Niño and a historic drought - Verdin, James P. (USDA–USAID 2016 International Food Assistance and Food Security Conference, 2016)

Navy plans to identify threat of sea level rise in Hampton Roads and how flooding affects areas around a base - Vergakis, Brock (The Virginian-Pilot, 2016)

Long-term empirical evidence of ocean warming leading to tropicalization of fish communities, increased herbivory, and loss of kelp - Vergés, Adriana; Doropoulos, Christopher; Malcolm, Hamish A.; Skye, Mathew; Garcia-Pizá, Marina; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M.; Campbell, Alexandra H.; Ballesteros, Enric; Hoey, Andrew S.; Vila-Concejo, Ana; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Steinberg, Peter D. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Most studies of the impact of global warming focus on the direct physiological impacts of climate change. However, global warming is shifting the distribution of many species and leading to novel interactions between previously separated species that have the potential to transform entire ecological communities. This study shows that an increase in the proportion of warmwater species (“tropicalization”) as oceans warm is increasing fish herbivory in kelp forests, contributing to their decline and subsequent persistence in alternate “kelp-free” states. These tropical and subtropical herbivores are increasingly impacting temperate algal communities worldwide, posing a significant threat to the long-term stability of these iconic ecosystems and the valuable services they provide.Some of the most profound effects of climate change on ecological communities are due to alterations in species interactions rather than direct physiological effects of changing environmental conditions. Empirical evidence of historical changes in species interactions within climate-impacted communities is, however, rare and difficult to obtain. Here, we demonstrate the recent disappearance of key habitat-forming kelp forests from a warming tropical–temperate transition zone in eastern Australia. Using a 10-y video dataset encompassing a 0.6 °C warming period, we show how herbivory increased as kelp gradually declined and then disappeared. Concurrently, fish communities from sites where kelp was originally abundant but subsequently disappeared became increasingly dominated by tropical herbivores. Feeding assays identified two key tropical/subtropical herbivores that consumed transplanted kelp within hours at these sites. There was also a distinct increase in the abundance of fishes that consume epilithic algae, and much higher bite rates by this group at sites without kelp, suggesting a key role for these fishes in maintaining reefs in kelp-free states by removing kelp recruits. Changes in kelp abundance showed no direct relationship to seawater temperatures over the decade and were also unrelated to other measured abiotic factors (nutrients and storms). Our results show that warming-mediated increases in fish herbivory pose a significant threat to kelp-dominated ecosystems in Australia and, potentially, globally.

The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: Climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts - Vergés, Adriana; Steinberg, Peter D.; Hay, Mark E.; Poore, Alistair G. B.; Campbell, Alexandra H.; Ballesteros, Enric; Heck, Kenneth L.; Booth, David J.; Coleman, Melinda A.; Feary, David A.; Figueira, Will; Langlois, Tim; et al. (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2014)
Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to ‘barrens’ when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs.

Arctic climate warming and sea ice declines lead to increased storm surge activity - Vermaire, Jesse C.; Pisaric, Michael F. J.; Thienpont, Joshua R.; Courtney Mustaphi, Colin J.; Kokelj, Steven V.; Smol, John P. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2013)
Keywords: paleolimnology storm surge Arctic particle size analysis diatoms coastal processes 1630 Impacts of global change 1817 Extreme events 4343 Preparedness and planning 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges 4901 Abrupt/rapid climate change

Economic impacts from geologic hazard events on Colorado Department of Transportation right-of-way - Vessely, Mark; Richrath, Scott; Weldemicael, Ermias (Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2017)
The economic impacts from geological hazards that occur within or adjacent to Colorado Department of Transportation (DOT) right-of-way can be measured in support of exposure estimation for risk-based asset and performance management. The events include rockfalls, rock slides, landslides, debris flows, and sinkholes and can be categorized as routine maintenance, regular program activities, and urgent response. The statewide economic impacts from geologic hazards were grouped into two categories: (a) direct costs for maintenance labor and equipment, engineering, and construction and (b) indirect costs, including property damage, injury or fatalities, traveler delay, lost productivity, loss of revenue to businesses and communities, and environmental impacts. Annual direct department costs from geologic hazard events average about $17 million to $20 million, which includes maintenance staff response to approximately 8,500 work orders each year. Most work orders are high-frequency events that are addressed daily by maintenance staff. Conversely, some events occur less frequently and have a larger economic impact, particularly for users and communities. In 2014, the economic impact from geologic hazards on Colorado DOT roadways was estimated to be nearly $30 million. Historical data indicate that the 2014 estimate is conservative when high-volume roadways are affected or when more large events occur in a single year. For example, the economic impact for two rockfall events on I-70 in 2004 and 2010 was estimated to be more than $40 million each, adjusted to 2015 dollars. When average Colorado DOT direct expenses are included, the economic impact in those years may have exceeded $60 million.

Native Americans: Where in environmental justice research? - Vickery, Jamie; Hunter, Lori M. (Society & Natural Resources, 2016)

Fine sediment trapping in two mangrove-fringed estuaries exposed to contrasting land-use intensity, Palau, Micronesia - Victor, S.; Golbuu, Y.; Wolanski, E.; Richmond, R. H. (Wetlands Ecology and Management, 2004)
A comparative study was undertaken of the fate of fine sediment in the Ngerikiil and Ngerdorch mangrove-fringed estuaries in Babeldaob Island, Palau, Micronesia, in 2002. The mangroves comprised 3.8% of each catchment area, and in both systems, they trapped about 30% of the riverine sediment. Mangroves are important buffers protecting fringing coral reefs from excessive sedimentation. The sediment yield was significantly higher in the Ngerikiil River catchment (150 tons km−2 yr−1) that has been extensively cleared and farmed, than in Ngerdorch River catchment (1.9 tons km−2 yr−1) that was still relatively pristine during the study period.

Climate change impacts on high elevation hydropower generation in California’s Sierra Nevada: A case study in the Upper American River - Vicuna, S.; Leonardson, R.; Hanemann, M. W.; Dale, L. L.; Dracup, J. A. (Climatic Change, 2008)
Climate change is likely to affect the generation of energy from California’s high-elevation hydropower systems. To investigate these impacts, this study formulates a linear programming model of an 11-reservoir hydroelectric system operated by the Sacramento Municipal Utility District in the Upper American River basin. Four sets of hydrologic scenarios are developed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model combined with climatic output from two general circulation models under two greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios. Power generation and revenues fall under two of the four climate change scenarios, as a consequence of drier hydrologic conditions. Energy generation is primarily limited by annual volume of streamflow, and is affected more than revenues, reflecting the ability of the system to store water when energy prices are low for use when prices are high (July through September). Power generation and revenues increase for two of the scenarios, which predict wetter hydrologic conditions. In this case, power generation increases more than revenues indicating that the system is using most of its available capacity under current hydrologic conditions. Hydroelectric systems located in basins with hydrograph centroids occuring close to summer months (July through September) are likely to be affected by the changes in hydrologic timing associated with climate change (e.g., earlier snowmelts and streamflows) if the systems lack sufficient storage capacity. High Sierra hydroelectric systems with sufficiently large storage capacity should not be affected by climate-induced changes in hydrologic timing.

Projected changes in discharge in an agricultural watershed in Iowa - Villarini, Gabriele; Scoccimarro, Enrico; White, Kathleen D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Schilling, Keith E.; Ghosh, Joyee (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2015)
Our improved capability to adapt to the future changes in discharge is linked to our capability to predict the magnitude or at least the direction of these changes. For the agricultural United States Midwest, too much or too little water has severe socioeconomic impacts. Here, we focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, Iowa, and use a statistical approach to examine projected changes in discharge. We build on statistical models using rainfall and harvested corn and soybean acreage to explain the observed discharge variability. We then use projections of these two predictors to examine the projected discharge response. Results are based on seven global climate models part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). There is not a strong signal of change in the discharge projections under the RCP 4.5. However, the results for the RCP 8.5 point to a stronger changing signal related to larger projected increases in rainfall, resulting in increased trends, in particular, in the upper part of the discharge distribution (i.e., 60th percentile and above). Examination of two hypothetical agricultural scenarios indicates that these increasing trends could be alleviated by decreasing the extent of the agricultural production. We also discuss how the methodology presented in this study represents a viable approach to move forward with the concept of return period for engineering design and management in a nonstationary world.

Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin - Villarini, Gabriele; Smith, James A.; Serinaldi, Francesco; Bales, Jerad; Bates, Paul D.; Krajewski, Witold F. (Advances in Water Resources, 2009)
Keywords: Nonstationarity Urbanization GAMLSS Flood frequency analysis

The energy-water-food nexus: Strategic analysis of technologies for transforming the urban metabolism - Villarroel Walker, R.; Beck, M. B.; Hall, J. W.; Dawson, R. J.; Heidrich, O. (Journal of Environmental Management, 2014)
Keywords: Resource recovery Decision-making Nutrients Energy Wastewater

Federal Land Ownership: Overview and Data - Vincent, Carol Hardy; Hanson, Laura A.; Argueta, Carla N. (Congressional Research Service, 2017)

Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent - Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Robock, Alan; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Walsh, John E.; Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Mitchell, John F. B.; Garrett, Donald; Zakharov, Victor F. (Science, 1999)
Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978–98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953–98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.

The mental health outcomes of drought: A systematic review and causal process diagram - Vins, Holly; Bell, Jesse; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2015)

Exploring the Role of Traditional Ecological Knowledge in Climate Change Initiatives - Vinyeta, Kirsten; Lynn, Kathy (U.S. Department of Agriculture Pacific Northwest Research Station, 2013)

Climate Change Through an Intersectional Lens: Gendered Vulnerability and Resilience in Indigenous Communities in the United States - Vinyeta, Kirsten; Powys Whyte, Kyle; Lynn, Kathy (U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 2015)

The U.S. Virgin Islands Statewide Historic Preservation Plan - Virgin Islands State Historic Preservation Office; University of Alabama Office of Archaeological Research (University of Alabama, Office of Archaeological Research, 2016)

Vision North Texas: Understanding Our Options for Growth - Vision North Texas (Vision North Texas, 2010)

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise - Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D. (Scientific Reports, 2017)
Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Can beaches survive climate change? - Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick (Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface, 2017)
Keywords: climate change sea level rise coastal change beach erosion sediment transport 1641 Sea level change 3238 Prediction 4217 Coastal processes 4558 Sediment transport

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change - Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake (Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface, 2017)
Keywords: shoreline change coastal evolution sediment transport sea level rise coastal geomorphology numerical modeling 1641 Sea level change 4217 Coastal processes 4558 Sediment transport

U.S. 2013/14 Wheat Year in Review: Smaller Supplies and Higher Exports Lower Ending Stocks - Vocke, Gary (USDA Economic Research Service, 2015)

Climate Adaptation—The State of Practice in U.S. Communities - Vogel, Jason; Carney, Karen M.; Smith, Joel B.; Herrick, Charles; Stults, Missy; O’Grady, Megan; Juliana, Alexis St.; Hosterman, Heather; Giangola, Lorine (Kresge Foundation, 2016)
Keywords: urban climate change adaptation

Co-producing actionable science for water utilities - Vogel, Jason; McNie, Elizabeth; Behar, David (Climate Services, 2016)
Keywords: Actionable science Co-production Climate model information Water resources management Vulnerability assessment

Actionable Science in Practice: Co-producing Climate Change Information for Water Utility Vulnerability Assessments - Vogel, Jason; Smith, Joel; O'Grady, Megan; Flemming, Paul; Heyn, Kavita; Adams, Alison; Pierson, Don; Brooks, Keely; Behar, David (Water Utility Climate Alliance, 2015)

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Report for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory: May 23, 2014–June 5, 2015 - Vogel, J.M.; O'Grady, M.; Renfrow, S. (National Renewal Energy Laboratory, 2015)

Nonstationarity: Flood magnification and recurrence reduction factors in the United States - Vogel, Richard M.; Yaindl, Chad; Walter, Meghan (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2011)
It may no longer be reasonable to model streamflow as a stationary process, yet nearly all existing water resource planning methods assume that historical streamflows will remain unchanged in the future. In the few instances when trends in extreme events have been considered, most recent work has focused on the influence of climate change, alone. This study takes a different approach by exploring trends in floods in watersheds which are subject to a very broad range of anthropogenic influences, not limited to climate change. A simple statistical model is developed which can both mimic observed flood trends as well as the frequency of floods in a nonstationary world. This model is used to explore a range of flood planning issues in a nonstationary world. A decadal flood magnification factor is defined as the ratio of the T-year flood in a decade to the T-year flood today. Using historical flood data across the United States we obtain flood magnification factors in excess of 2-5 for many regions of the United States, particularly those regions with higher population densities. Similarly, we compute recurrence reduction factors which indicate that what is now considered the 100-year flood, may become much more common in many watersheds. Nonstationarity in floods can result from a variety of anthropogenic processes including changes in land use, climate, and water use, with likely interactions among those processes making it very difficult to attribute trends to a particular cause.
Keywords: land-use/land-cover change trend analysis urbanization runoff flooding rivers/streams

Cultural impacts to tribes from climate change influences on forests - Voggesser, Garrit; Lynn, Kathy; Daigle, John; Lake, Frank K.; Ranco, Darren (Climatic Change, 2013)

Hot water ahead for Hurricane Irma - Voiland, Adam (NASA Earth Observatory, 2017)

Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get? - Voisin, N.; Kintner-Meyer, M.; Skaggs, R.; Nguyen, T.; Wu, D.; Dirks, J.; Xie, Y.; Hejazi, M. (Energy, 2016)
Keywords: Electric grid Reliability Water-energy nexus Inter-annual variability Production cost model Hydro-climatology

Global Food Price Volatility and Spikes: An Overview of Costs, Causes, and Solutions - von Braun, Joachim; Tadesse, Getaw (University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF), 2012)
ISSN: 1436-9931

Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought - von Uexkull, Nina; Croicu, Mihai; Fjelde, Hanne; Buhaug, Halvard (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on the nature and significance of the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict. We argue that progress has been hampered by insufficient attention paid to the context in which droughts and other climatic extremes may increase the risk of violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, this study presents an actor-oriented analysis of the drought–conflict relationship, focusing specifically on politically relevant ethnic groups and their sensitivity to growing-season drought under various political and socioeconomic contexts. To this end, we draw on new conflict event data that cover Asia and Africa, 1989–2014, updated spatial ethnic settlement data, and remote sensing data on agricultural land use. Our procedure allows quantifying, for each ethnic group, drought conditions during the growing season of the locally dominant crop. A comprehensive set of multilevel mixed effects models that account for the groups’ livelihood, economic, and political vulnerabilities reveals that a drought under most conditions has little effect on the short-term risk that a group challenges the state by military means. However, for agriculturally dependent groups as well as politically excluded groups in very poor countries, a local drought is found to increase the likelihood of sustained violence. We interpret this as evidence of the reciprocal relationship between drought and conflict, whereby each phenomenon makes a group more vulnerable to the other.

Effects of Drought on Forests and Rangelands in the United States: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis - Vose, James; Clark, J.S.; Luce, Charlie; Patel-Weynand, Toral (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington Office, 2016)

Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Management Options: A Guide for Natural Resource Managers in Southern Forest Ecosystems - Vose, James M.; Klepzig, Kier D. (CRC Press, 2013)

Ecohydrological implications of drought for forests in the United States - Vose, James M.; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Luce, Charles H.; Asbjornsen, Heidi; Caldwell, Peter V.; Campbell, John L.; Grant, Gordon E.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Loheide Ii, Steven P.; Sun, Ge (Forest Ecology and Management, 2016)
Keywords: Transpiration Streamflow Water balance Water quality Climate change Management options

Forests - Vose, J.M.; Peterson, D.L.; Domke, G.M.; Fettig, C.J.; Joyce, L.A.; Keane, R.E.; Luce, C.H.; Prestemon, J.P.; Band, L.E.; Clark, J.S.; Cooley, N.E.; D'Amato, A.; et al. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870 - Vose, J. M.; Peterson, D.L.; Patel-Weynand, T. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 2012)

Monitoring and understanding changes in extremes: Extratropical storms, winds, and waves - Vose, Russell S.; Applequist, Scott; Bourassa, Mark A.; Pryor, Sara C.; Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Blanton, Brian; Bromirski, Peter D.; Brooks, Harold E.; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Dole, Randall M.; Easterling, David R.; Jensen, Robert E.; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2014)

An intercomparison of temperature trends in the US Historical Climatology Network and recent atmospheric reanalyses - Vose, R.S.; Applequist, S.; Menne, M.J.; Williams, C.N., Jr.; Thorne, P. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2012)
Temperature trends over 1979–2008 in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (HCN) are compared with those in six recent atmospheric reanalyses. For the conterminous United States, the trend in the adjusted HCN (0.327 °C dec−1) is generally comparable to the ensemble mean of the reanalyses (0.342 °C dec−1). It is also well within the range of the reanalysis trend estimates (0.280 to 0.437 °C dec−1). The bias adjustments play a critical role, as the raw HCN dataset displays substantially less warming than all of the reanalyses. HCN has slightly lower maximum and minimum temperature trends than those reanalyses with hourly temporal resolution, suggesting the HCN adjustments may not fully compensate for recent non-climatic artifacts at some stations. Spatially, both the adjusted HCN and all of the reanalyses indicate widespread warming across the nation during the study period. Overall, the adjusted HCN is in broad agreement with the suite of reanalyses.

NOAA’s merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis - Vose, R.S.; Arndt, D.; Banzon, V.F.; Easterling, D.R.; Gleason, B.; Huang, B.; Kearns, E.; Lawrimore, J.H.; Menne, M.J.; Peterson, T.C.; Reynolds, R.W.; Smith, T.M.; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2012)

Temperature changes in the United States - Vose, R.S.; Easterling, D.R.; Kunkel, K.E.; LeGrande, A.N.; Wehner, M.F. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

The facilitative role of Kosteletzkya pentacarpos in transitioning coastal agricultural land to wetland during sea level rise - Voutsina, Nikol; Seliskar, Denise M.; Gallagher, John L. (Estuaries and Coasts, 2015)
Rising sea level is increasing soil salinity and flooding frequency, directly impacting low-lying coastal farmlands. In response to reduced production of traditional crops, dikes may be built which will prevent inland migration of wetlands. Seashore mallow, Kosteletzkya pentacarpos, is being developed as an alternative crop for such areas. Eventually, when the crop can no longer be harvested because of flooding, we hypothesize that seashore mallow will facilitate the establishment of desirable wetland species by acting as a nurse crop through this transitional period. Four treatments were planted in flood-irrigated plots at an upland field site adjacent to a salt marsh. The control, Spartina patens, K. pentacarpos, and combined treatments were laid out in a complete randomized block design with replication. These were sampled for species percent vegetative cover, morphological traits, above-ground biomass, and leaf litter. The presence of seashore mallow enhanced S. patens and Baccharis halimifolia recruitment and did not negatively impact growth of planted S. patens. Communities established around K. pentacarpos were both productive and diverse, and leaf litter was increased by K. pentacarpos. Our findings support the use of K. pentacarpos as a low-cost nurse crop in salinized agro-ecosystems. Such a strategy would prolong agricultural function and minimize loss of ecological services by allowing gradual inland wetland migration.

Fate of water pumped from underground and contributions to sea-level rise - Wada, Yoshihide; Lo, Min-Hui; Yeh, Pat J. F.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.; Wu, Ren-Jie; Tseng, Yu-Heng (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Recent changes in land water storage and its contribution to sea level variations - Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S. (Surveys in Geophysics, 2017)
Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth’s surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability - Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C. (Conservation Biology, 2017)
Keywords: adaptive capacity bull trout CCVA Columbia River Basin Oncorhynchus mykiss Salvelinus confluentus steelhead trout uncertainty Capacidad adaptativa cuenca del Río Columbia evaluaciones de vulnerabilidad al cambio climático

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. Marine Sanctuaries Conservation - Wagner, Daniel; Polhemus, Daniel (NOAA, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, 2016)

Impacts of climate change on stream flow and hydro power generation in the Alpine region - Wagner, T.; Themeßl, M.; Schüppel, A.; Gobiet, A.; Stigler, H.; Birk, S. (Environmental Earth Sciences, 2016)
Electricity generated by hydro power is the most widely used form of renewable energy, and as such, its vulnerability to climate change is of great interest. The aim of this work is to estimate the change in river discharge characteristics in the Alpine region due to possible impacts of climate and the related changes in the power generation of run-of-river hydro power plants up to 2050. Four representative bias-corrected climate simulations from the ENSEMBLES project are chosen based on the SRES greenhouse gas emission scenario pathway A1B. Data of these simulations serve as input for a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model at a monthly time step, which is calibrated on discharge data of gauging stations along important rivers in the Alpine region. A power plant model fed with runoff data generated by the hydrological model is used to compute changes in the long-term average annual net electrical energy output of hydro power plants for the whole Alpine region; while the model for Austria is based on known technical parameters of the power plants, a more simplified approach is employed elsewhere. The general warming trend observed in all four climate scenarios causes to various degrees a seasonal shift towards earlier runoff. However, more diverse changes in precipitation for the different climate scenarios and time periods result in diverging hydrological projections. Although the annual runoff is found to decrease in some scenarios, the generally observed shift of runoff towards the winter season that typically shows higher energy consumption in the Alpine region suggests that the overall impact for the electricity sector tends to be positive rather than negative. Estimated changes in the average annual electricity generation of run-of-river plants are generally found to be within a single-digit percentage range but can be either positive or negative depending on the climate scenario. The estimated ranges reflect the diversity (uncertainty) of the climate models; the total bandwidth of possible changes in the water availability and hydro power generation in the Alpine region up to 2050 is assumed to be even higher, because of other uncertainties in the model chain that are not explicitly considered here. Nevertheless, as the general regional trends and bandwidth of changes in runoff and hydro power production strongly depend on the future changes in precipitation, the results of this work provide reasonable orders of magnitude of expected changes and are seen as a first step towards an improved understanding of climate impacts on hydro power production within the entire Alpine region.

Comparative performance of paleoclimate field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors - Wahl, Eugene R.; Smerdon, Jason E. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2012)
Keywords: climate field reconstructions index reconstructions paleoclimate proxies reconstruction skill red noise predictors 1956 Numerical algorithms 1986 Statistical methods: Inferential 3333 Model calibration 3344 Paleoclimatology 4920 Dendrochronology

Macroalgae may mitigate ocean acidification effects on mussel calcification by increasing pH and its fluctuations - Wahl, M.; Schneider Covachã, S.; Saderne, V.; Hiebenthal, C.; Müller, J. D.; Pansch, C.; Sawall, Y. (Limnology and Oceanography, 2018)
Ocean acidification (OA) is generally assumed to negatively impact calcification rates of marine organisms. At a local scale however, biological activity of macrophytes may generate pH fluctuations with rates of change that are orders of magnitude larger than the long‐term trend predicted for the open ocean. These fluctuations may in turn impact benthic calcifiers in the vicinity. Combining laboratory, mesocosm and field studies, such interactions between OA, the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus, the sea grass Zostera marina and the blue mussel Mytilus edulis were investigated at spatial scales from decimetres to 100s of meters in the western Baltic. Macrophytes increased the overall mean pH of the habitat by up to 0.3 units relative to macrophyte‐free, but otherwise similar, habitats and imposed diurnal pH fluctuations with amplitudes ranging from 0.3 to more than 1 pH unit. These amplitudes and their impact on mussel calcification tended to increase with increasing macrophyte biomass to bulk water ratio. At the laboratory and mesocosm scales, biogenic pH fluctuations allowed mussels to maintain calcification even under acidified conditions by shifting most of their calcification activity into the daytime when biogenic fluctuations caused by macrophyte activity offered temporal refuge from OA stress. In natural habitats with a low biomass to water body ratio, the impact of biogenic pH fluctuations on mean calcification rates of M. edulis was less pronounced. Thus, in dense algae or seagrass habitats, macrophytes may mitigate OA impact on mussel calcification by raising mean pH and providing temporal refuge from acidification stress.

Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities - Wahl, Thomas; Jain, Shaleen; Bender, Jens; Meyers, Steven D.; Luther, Mark E. (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Effects of climate change on Oregon coast coho salmon: Habitat and life-cycle interactions - Wainwright, Thomas C.; Weitkamp, Laurie A. (Northwest Science, 2013)

The English national cohort study of flooding and health: Cross-sectional analysis of mental health outcomes at year one - Waite, Thomas David; Chaintarli, Katerina; Beck, Charles R.; Bone, Angie; Amlôt, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Reacher, Mark; Armstrong, Ben; Leonardi, Giovanni; Rubin, G. James; Oliver, Isabel (BMC Public Health, 2017)
In winter 2013/14 there was widespread flooding in England. Previous studies have described an increased prevalence of psychological morbidity six months after flooding. Disruption to essential services may increase morbidity however there have been no studies examining whether those experiencing disruption but not directly flooded are affected.

Saturation-state sensitivity of marine bivalve larvae to ocean acidification - Waldbusser, George G.; Hales, Burke; Langdon, Chris J.; Haley, Brian A.; Schrader, Paul; Brunner, Elizabeth L.; Gray, Matthew W.; Miller, Cale A.; Gimenez, Iria (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

Ocean acidification in the coastal zone from an organism's perspective: Multiple system parameters, frequency domains, and habitats - Waldbusser, George G.; Salisbury, Joseph E. (Annual Review of Marine Science, 2014)
Keywords: carbonate chemistry,carbon dioxide,coastal-zone variability,organismal perspective,carbonate weather,carbonate climate

A handful of heuristics and some propositions for understanding resilience in social-ecological systems - Walker, B. H.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Kinzig, Ann P.; Folke, Carl; Carpenter, Steve R.; Schultz, Lisen (Ecology and Society, 2006)

Disparities and access to healthy food in the United States: A review of food deserts literature - Walker, Renee E.; Keane, Christopher R.; Burke, Jessica G. (Health & Place, 2010)
Keywords: added by ERG

Coastal ocean acidification: The other eutrophication problem - Wallace, Ryan B.; Baumann, Hannes; Grear, Jason S.; Aller, Robert C.; Gobler, Christopher J. (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2014)
Keywords: acidification pH estuary hypoxia calcium carbonate saturation respiration

The Role of Conservation Programs in Drought Risk Adaptation - Wallander, Steven; Aillery, Marcel; Hellerstein, Daniel; Hand, Michael S. (USDA, Eonomic Research Service, 2013)

South Florida continues prep for sea level rise - Wallman, Brittany (Sun Sentinel, 2017)

Public willingness to pay for recovering and downlisting threatened and endangered marine species - Wallmo, Kristy; Lew, Daniel K. (Conservation Biology, 2012)
Nonmarket valuation research has produced economic value estimates for a variety of threatened, endangered, and rare species around the world. Although over 40 value estimates exist, it is often difficult to compare values from different studies due to variations in study design, implementation, and modeling specifications. We conducted a stated‐preference choice experiment to estimate the value of recovering or downlisting 8 threatened and endangered marine species in the United States: loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta), leatherback sea turtle (Dermochelys coriacea), North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica), upper Willamette River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Puget Sound Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Hawaiian monk seals (Monachus schauinslandi), and smalltooth sawfish (Pristis pectinata). In May 2009, we surveyed a random sample of U.S. households. We collected data from 8476 households and estimated willingness to pay for recovering and downlisting the 8 species from these data. Respondents were willing to pay for recovering and downlisting threatened and endangered marine taxa. Willingness‐to‐pay values ranged from $40/household for recovering Puget Sound Chinook salmon to $73/household for recovering the North Pacific right whale. Statistical comparisons among willingness‐to‐pay values suggest that some taxa are more economically valuable than others, which suggests that the U.S. public's willingness to pay for recovery may vary by species.

Long-term changes in the distributions of larval and adult fish in the northeast U.S. shelf ecosystem - Walsh, Harvey J.; Richardson, David E.; Marancik, Katrin E.; Hare, Jonathan A. (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf). Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem with potential to impact fisheries and other ecosystem services.

Ch. 2: Our changing climate - Walsh, John; Wuebbles, Donald; Hayhoe, Katharine; Kossin, James; Kunkel, Kenneth; Stephens, Graeme; Thorne, Peter; Vose, Russell; Wehner, Michael; Willis, Josh; Anderson, David; Doney, Scott; et al. (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Appendix 4: Frequently asked questions - Walsh, John; Wuebbles, Donald; Hayhoe, Katharine; Kossin, James; Kunkel, Kenneth; Stephens, Graeme; Thorne, Peter; Vose, Russell; Wehner, Michael; Willis, Josh; Anderson, David; Kharin, Viatcheslav; et al. (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Downscaling of climate model output for Alaskan stakeholders - Walsh, John E.; Bhatt, Uma S.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Leonawicz, Matthew; Lindgren, Michael; Kurkowski, Thomas A.; Bieniek, Peter; Thoman, Richard; Gray, Stephen; Rupp, T. Scott (Environmental Modeling and Software, 2018)

The exceptionally warm winter of 2015/16 in Alaska - Walsh, John E.; Bieniek, Peter A.; Brettschneider, Brian; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Lader, Rick; Thoman, Richard L. (Journal of Climate, 2017)

Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland - Walsh, J.E.; Chapman, W.L.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Christensen, J.H.; Stendel, M. (Journal of Climate, 2008)

The high latitude marine heat wave of 2016 and its impacts on Alaska - Walsh, John E.; Thoman, Richard L.; Bhatt, Uma S.; Bieniek, Peter A.; Brettschneider, Brian; Brubaker, Michael; Danielson, Seth; Lader, Rick; Fetterer, Florence; Holderied, Kris; Iken, Katrin; Mahoney, Andy; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018)

Hurricanes and climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes - Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Elsner, James; Emanuel, Kerry; Horn, Michael; Lim, Young-Kwon; Roberts, Malcolm; Patricola, Christina; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Sobel, Adam H.; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015)
While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.

Tropical cyclones and climate change - Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McBride, John L.; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Balachandran, Sethurathinam; Camargo, Suzana J.; Holland, Greg; Knutson, Thomas R.; Kossin, James P.; Lee, Tsz-cheung; Sobel, Adam; Sugi, Masato (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2016)

Ecological stress memory and cross stress tolerance in plants in the face of climate extremes - Walter, Julia; Jentsch, Anke; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Kreyling, Juergen (Environmental and Experimental Botany, 2013)
Keywords: Global warming Ecophysiology Ecological memory Extreme events Heat stress Frost stress Drought stress

Climate change and conservation of endemic amphidromous fishes in Hawaiian streams - Walter, R. P.; Hogan, J. D.; Blum, M. J.; Gagne, R. B.; Hain, E. F.; Gilliam, J. F.; McIntyre, P. B. (Endangered Species Research, 2012)
Amphidromous fishes are important members of oceanic island freshwater communities. Although often depauperate, amphidromous fish assemblages on islands are largely composed of endemic species. Little is known about the effects of anthropogenic

Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation - Walthall, C.; Backlund, P.; Hatfield, J.; Lengnick, L.; Marshall, E.; Walsh, M.; Adkins, S.; Aillery, M.; Ainsworth, E.A.; Amman, C.; Anderson, C.J.; Bartomeus, I.; et al. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2012)

Ecological responses to recent climate change - Walther, Gian-Reto; Post, Eric; Convey, Peter; Menzel, Annette; Parmesan, Camille; Beebee, Trevor J. C.; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Bairlein, Franz (Nature, 2002)

The vulnerability of the elderly to hurricane hazards in Sarasota, Florida - Wang, Chongming; Yarnal, Brent (Natural Hazards, 2012)
Although the elderly are commonly thought to be disproportionately vulnerable to natural hazards, the elderly populations of coastal communities are continuing to grow. Because there is little to no empirical hazards work specifically addressing the vulnerable elderly in coastal communities, this paper uses Sarasota County, Florida, as a case study to analyze how vulnerable the elderly are to hurricane hazards and whether all elderly people are equally vulnerable. To explore the spatial variations in degree and composition of vulnerability among this population, the analysis maps physical exposure to hurricane storm-surge inundation and precipitation-induced flooding and creates social vulnerability indices by applying principal components analysis to census block group data in a geographic information system. The results show that elderly inhabitants of barrier islands face a considerable physical threat from hurricane-induced storm surge and flooding but are less socially vulnerable because of their wealth; the elderly living inland are far less physically vulnerable but are poorer and consequently demonstrate high socioeconomic sensitivity and limited adaptive capacity to these hurricane hazards. The paper concludes that the elderly are not equally vulnerable: there are many different types of elderly living in many different locations, and their vulnerability varies by type and over space. Effective vulnerability reduction measures should account for these differences between the elderly populations.

Intensification and spatial homogenization of coastal upwelling under climate change - Wang, Daiwei; Gouhier, Tarik C.; Menge, Bruce A.; Ganguly, Auroop R. (Nature, 2015)

The peak structure and future changes of the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature - Wang, Guiling; Wang, Dagang; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Erfanian, Amir; Yu, Miao; Bosilovich, Michael G; Parr, Dana T. (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010 - Wang, J.; Bai, X.; Hu, H.; Clites, A.; Colton, M.; Lofgren, B. (Journal of Climate, 2012)

A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models - Wang, Muyin; Overland, James E. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2012)
Keywords: Arctic CMIP5 climate projections sea ice 0750 Sea ice 1616 Climate variability 1621 Cryospheric change 1626 Global climate models 9315 Arctic region

Payments for ecosystem services and wealth distribution - Wang, Pu; Poe, Gregory L.; Wolf, Steven A. (Ecological Economics, 2017)
Keywords: Willingness to pay Willingness to accept Transaction cost Market-based policy instrument Inequality Poverty alleviation

Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013–2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint - Wang, S. Y.; Hipps, Lawrence; Gillies, Robert R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Keywords: California drought ENSO precursor teleconnection anthropogenic warming 0429 Climate dynamics 1616 Climate variability 4522 ENSO

Impact of climate change on corrosion and damage to concrete infrastructure in Australia - Wang, Xiaoming; Stewart, Mark G.; Nguyen, Minh (Climatic Change, 2012)
The durability of concrete is determined largely by its deterioration over time which is affected by the environment. Climate change may alter this environment, causing an acceleration of deterioration processes that will affect the safety and serviceability of concrete infrastructure in Australia, U.S., Europe, China and elsewhere. This investigation of concrete deterioration under changing climate in Australia uses Monte-Carlo simulation of results from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and considers high greenhouse gas emission scenarios representing the A1FI schemes of the IPCC. We present the implications of climate change for the durability of concrete structures, in terms of changes in probability of reinforcement corrosion initiation and corrosion induced damage at a given calendar year between 2000 and 2100 across Australia. Since the main driver to increased concrete deterioration is CO2 concentration and temperature, then increases in damage risks observed in Australia are likely to be observed in other concrete infrastructure internationally. The impact of climate change on the deterioration cannot be ignored, but can be addressed by new approaches in design. Existing concrete structures, for which design has not considered the effects of changing climate may deteriorate more rapidly than originally planned.

Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis - Wang, X.L.; Feng, Y.; Compo, G.P.; Swail, V.R.; Zwiers, F.W.; Allan, R.J.; Sardeshmukh, P.D. (Climate Dynamics, 2012)
An objective cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) 6-hourly mean sea level pressure fields for the period 1871–2010 to infer historical trends and variability in extra-tropical cyclone activity. The tracking algorithm is applied both to the ensemble-mean analyses and to each of the 56 ensemble members individually. The ensemble-mean analyses are found to be unsuitable for accurately determining cyclone statistics. However, pooled cyclone statistics obtained by averaging statistics from individual members generally agree well with statistics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses for 1951–2010, although 20CR shows somewhat weaker cyclone activity over land and stronger activity over oceans. Both reanalyses show similar cyclone trend patterns in the northern hemisphere (NH) over 1951–2010. Homogenized pooled cyclone statistics are analyzed for trends and variability. Conclusions account for identified inhomogeneities, which occurred before 1949 in the NH and between 1951 and 1985 in the southern hemisphere (SH). Cyclone activity is estimated to have increased slightly over the period 1871–2010 in the NH. More substantial increases are seen in the SH. Notable regional and seasonal variations in trends are evident, as is profound decadal or longer scale variability. For example, the NH increases occur mainly in the mid-latitude Pacific and high-latitude Atlantic regions. For the North Atlantic-European region and southeast Australia, the 20CR cyclone trends are in agreement with trends in geostrophic wind extremes derived from in-situ surface pressure observations. European trends are also consistent with trends in the mean duration of wet spells derived from rain gauge data in Europe.
Keywords: Reanalysis data; Extra-tropical cyclones; Cyclone tracking; Data homogeneity tests; Data homogenization; Trends and low frequency variability

Heat stroke admissions during heat waves in 1,916 US counties for the period from 1999 to 2010 and their effect modifiers - Wang, Yan; Bobb, Jennifer F.; Papi, Bianca; Wang, Yun; Kosheleva, Anna; Di, Qian; Schwartz, Joel D.; Dominici, Francesca (Environmental Health, 2016)
Heat stroke is a serious heat-related illness, especially among older adults. However, little is known regarding the spatiotemporal variation of heat stroke admissions during heat waves and what factors modify the adverse effects.

The marine inorganic carbon system along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the United States: Insights from a transregional coastal carbon study - Wang, Zhaohui Aleck; Wanninkhof, Rik; Cai, Wei-Jun; Byrne, Robert H.; Hu, Xinping; Peng, Tsung-Hung; Huang, Wei-Jen (Limnology and Oceanography, 2013)

Fishery‐induced evolution provides insights into adaptive responses of marine species to climate change - Waples, Robin S; Audzijonyte, Asta (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2016)
Climate change challenges marine species with seawater that is warmer, with less oxygen and lower pH. To date, most climate‐change studies have focused on organisms' acclimation or shifts in distribution; relatively little is known about the capacity of marine species to respond through evolution. We propose that important insights can be gained from recent studies of fishery‐induced evolution (FIE), which show that increased adult mortality from fishing leads to rapid changes in growth and reproduction schedules. These changes consistently involve evolution of “faster” life histories: earlier maturation at smaller sizes and shorter life spans. In the ocean, coupled effects of higher temperatures and reduced oxygen also differentially affect larger or older individuals, so expected evolutionary consequences of climate change are qualitatively similar to those of FIE. This general pattern will apply to large numbers of marine species and has important implications for conservation and management.

Economic impacts on irrigated agriculture of water conservation programs in drought - Ward, Frank A. (Journal of Hydrology, 2014)
Keywords: Irrigation Drought adaptation Salinity River basin Water conservation programs

Economic performance of irrigation capacity development to adapt to climate in the American Southwest - Ward, Frank A.; Crawford, Terry L. (Journal of Hydrology, 2016)
Keywords: Food security Climate Irrigation Institutions Policy

Reservoir performance and dynamic management under plausible assumptions of future climate over seasons to decades - Ward, M. Neil; Brown, Casey M.; Baroang, Kye M.; Kaheil, Yasir H. (Climatic Change, 2013)
An analysis procedure is developed to explore the robustness and overall productivity of reservoir management under plausible assumptions about climate fluctuation and change. Results are presented based on a stylized version of a multi-use reservoir management model adapted from Angat Dam, Philippines. Analysis focuses on October-March, during which climatological inflow declines as the dry season arrives, and reservoir management becomes critical and challenging. Inflow is assumed to be impacted by climate fluctuations representing interannual variation (white noise), decadal to multidecadal variability (MDV, here represented by a stochastic autoregressive process) and global change (GC), here represented by a systematic linear trend in seasonal inflow total over the simulation period of 2008–2047. Stochastic (Monte Carlo) simulations are undertaken to explore reservoir performance. In this way, reservoir reliability and risk of extreme persistent water deficit are assessed in the presence of different combinations and magnitudes of GC and MDV. The effectiveness of dynamic management is then explored as a possible climate change adaptation practice, focusing on reservoir performance in the presence of a 20 % downward inflow trend. In these dynamic management experiments, the October-March water allocation each year is adjusted based on seasonal forecasts and updated climate normals. The results illustrate how, in the near-term, MDV can be as significant as GC in impact for this kind of climate-related problem. The results also illustrate how dynamic management can mitigate the impacts. Overall, this type of analysis can deliver guidance on the expected benefits and risks of different management strategies and climate scenarios.

Modifying lodgepole pine stands to change susceptibility to mountain pine beetle attack - Waring, R. H.; Pitman, G. B. (Ecology, 1985)
The premise that mature lodgepole pine forests are susceptible to mountain pine beetle attack when physiologically stressed was supported experimentally by manipulating the canopy density and availability of nitrogen in a 120—yr—old forest exposed to a high population of beetles. Where canopy density was reduced, ether by us or by the insects, surviving trees significantly increased their resistance to attack over a 3—yr period. Increased resistance was reflected by changes in wood production per unit of leaf area (tree growth efficiency). Improved nitrogen nutrition hastened tree recovery but did not prevent attacks by beetles until growth efficiencies exceeded 100 g of wood production per square metre of foliage. Growth efficiency, as here defined, is an index of vigor that may reflect the relative ability of susceptible trees to produce defensive compounds following attack.

Where the rain falls: Evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity - Warner, Koko; Afifi, Tamer (Climate and Development, 2014)
Up to present, research relating environmental change to human mobility has found out that environmental factors can play a role in migration without being conclusive. Further, in the context of climate change, scholarly literature on migration ranges across a host of climatic stressors and geographies, making it difficult to date to solve the debate whether migration is a form of adaptation or an indicator of limits to adaptation. To address both of these debates, original research was undertaken to answer the question ?under what circumstances do households (HHs) use migration as a risk management strategy when facing rainfall variability and food insecurity??. This research administered a HH survey (n?=?1300) and participatory research (n?=?2000 respondents) in districts in eight countries (Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, Bangladesh, India, Thailand, and Vietnam). The findings reveal that the answer to how climatic stressors affect migration decisions and the degree to which migration improves the adaptive capacity of those HHs lie in the vulnerability of the HH and its sensitivity to climatic factors. The data reveal for the first time in a comparable global study distinct HH profiles of ?resilience? and ?vulnerability?. At the same time, the article distinguishes between ?content? migration ? rather associated with resilient HHs ? and ?erosive? migration ? rather associated with vulnerable HHs. However, the article also highlights that there are not always clear cuts but very often grey areas and overlaps among the HHs of the study when applying these typologies. Moreover, the article relates these profiles to an agent-based modelling approach applied in the Tanzania case to explore under what scenarios rainfall variability and food security have the potential to become significant drivers of human mobility in particular regions of the world in the next two to three decades.

In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement - Warner, Koko; Ehrhart, Charles; de Sherbinin, Alex; Adamo, Susana; Chai-Onn, Tricia (Cooperative for Assistance and Relief Everywhere, Inc. (CARE), 2009)

Loss and damage from climate change: Local-level evidence from nine vulnerable countries - Warner, Koko; van der Geest, Kees (International Journal of Global Warming, 2013)
Loss and damage is already a significant consequence of inadequate ability to adapt to changes in climate patterns. This paper reports on the first ever multi-country, evidence-based study on loss and damage from the perspective of affected people in least developed and other vulnerable countries. Researchers in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, the Gambia, Kenya, Micronesia, Mozambique and Nepal conducted household surveys (n=3,269) and more than a hundred focus group discussions and open interviews about loss and damage. The research reveals four loss and damage pathways. Residual impacts of climate stressors occur when: 1) existing coping/adaptation to biophysical impact is not enough; 2) measures have costs (including non-economic) that cannot be regained; 3) despite short-term merits, measures have negative effects in the longer term; or 4) no measures are adopted – or possible – at all.

Changes in winter atmospheric rivers along the North American West Coast in CMIP5 climate models - Warner, Michael D.; Mass, Clifford F.; Salathé Jr., Eric P. (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2015)
Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with winter atmospheric river (AR) events. Global climate models have sufficient resolution to simulate synoptic features associated with AR events, such as high values of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) approaching the coast. From phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), 10 simulations are used to identify changes in ARs impacting the west coast of North America between historical (1970–99) and end-of-century (2070–99) runs, using representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The most extreme ARs are identified in both time periods by the 99th percentile of IVT days along a north–south transect offshore of the coast. Integrated water vapor (IWV) and IVT are predicted to increase, while lower-tropospheric winds change little. Winter mean precipitation along the west coast increases by 11%–18% [from 4% to 6% (°C)−1], while precipitation on extreme IVT days increases by 15%–39% [from 5% to 19% (°C)−1]. The frequency of IVT days above the historical 99th percentile threshold increases as much as 290% by the end of this century.
Keywords: North America,North Pacific Ocean,Extreme events,Flood events,Precipitation,Climate change

Canada in a Changing Climate: Sector Perspectives on Impacts and Adaptation - Warren, F.J.; Lemmen, D.S. (Government of Canada, 2014)

Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss - Warren, R.; VanDerWal, J.; Price, J.; Welbergen, J. A.; Atkinson, I.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Osborn, T. J.; Jarvis, A.; Shoo, L. P.; Williams, S. E.; Lowe, J. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

Wildfire risk and optimal investments in watershed protection - Warziniack, Travis; Thompson, Matthew (Western Economics Forum, 2013)

Outdoor Heat Exposure - Washington State Legislature (2008)

Corridor Plan—Yakima River, Jeffries Levee to Yakima Canyon, Habitat Enhancement and Flood Risk Management Plan - Watershed Science and Engineering (Kittitas County Flood Control Zone District, 2015)

A Review of the Economics of Adaptation and Climate-Resilient Development - Watkiss, Paul (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, 2015)

Costs and Benefits of Adaptation: Results from the ECONADAPT Project - Watkiss, Paul (ECONADAPT Consortium, 2015)

Food, Climate Change, and the City - Watson, Alison; Gaspard, Albane; Lebreton, Amandine (United Nations Environment Programme, 2016)
Keywords: urban climate change Vulnerability health cultural

Speed breeding is a powerful tool to accelerate crop research and breeding - Watson, Amy; Ghosh, Sreya; Williams, Matthew J.; Cuddy, William S.; Simmonds, James; Rey, María-Dolores; Asyraf Md Hatta, M.; Hinchliffe, Alison; Steed, Andrew; Reynolds, Daniel; Adamski, Nikolai M.; Breakspear, Andy; et al. (Nature Plants, 2018)
The growing human population and a changing environment have raised significant concern for global food security, with the current improvement rate of several important crops inadequate to meet future demand 1 . This slow improvement rate is attributed partly to the long generation times of crop plants. Here, we present a method called ‘speed breeding’, which greatly shortens generation time and accelerates breeding and research programmes. Speed breeding can be used to achieve up to 6 generations per year for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum), durum wheat (T. durum), barley (Hordeum vulgare), chickpea (Cicer arietinum) and pea (Pisum sativum), and 4 generations for canola (Brassica napus), instead of 2–3 under normal glasshouse conditions. We demonstrate that speed breeding in fully enclosed, controlled-environment growth chambers can accelerate plant development for research purposes, including phenotyping of adult plant traits, mutant studies and transformation. The use of supplemental lighting in a glasshouse environment allows rapid generation cycling through single seed descent (SSD) and potential for adaptation to larger-scale crop improvement programs. Cost saving through light-emitting diode (LED) supplemental lighting is also outlined. We envisage great potential for integrating speed breeding with other modern crop breeding technologies, including high-throughput genotyping, genome editing and genomic selection, accelerating the rate of crop improvement.

Sea level rise, drought and the decline of Spartina patens in New England marshes - Watson, E. B.; Szura, K.; Wigand, C.; Raposa, K. B.; Blount, K.; Cencer, M. (Biological Conservation, 2016)
Keywords: Climate change Marsh die-back Storms Precipitation Marsh organ Thin layer deposition TLD Saltmarsh sparrow

Wetland loss patterns and inundation-productivity relationships prognosticate widespread salt marsh loss for southern New England - Watson, Elizabeth Burke; Wigand, Cathleen; Davey, Earl W.; Andrews, Holly M.; Bishop, Joseph; Raposa, Kenneth B. (Estuaries and Coasts, 2017)
Tidal salt marsh is a key defense against, yet is especially vulnerable to, the effects of accelerated sea level rise. To determine whether salt marshes in southern New England will be stable given increasing inundation over the coming decades, we examined current loss patterns, inundation-productivity feedbacks, and sustaining processes. A multi-decadal analysis of salt marsh aerial extent using historic imagery and maps revealed that salt marsh vegetation loss is both widespread and accelerating, with vegetation loss rates over the past four decades summing to 17.3 %. Landward retreat of the marsh edge, widening and headward expansion of tidal channel networks, loss of marsh islands, and the development and enlargement of interior depressions found on the marsh platform contributed to vegetation loss. Inundation due to sea level rise is strongly suggested as a primary driver: vegetation loss rates were significantly negatively correlated with marsh elevation (r2 = 0.96; p = 0.0038), with marshes situated below mean high water (MHW) experiencing greater declines than marshes sitting well above MHW. Growth experiments with Spartina alterniflora, the Atlantic salt marsh ecosystem dominant, across a range of elevations and inundation regimes further established that greater inundation decreases belowground biomass production of S. alterniflora and, thus, negatively impacts organic matter accumulation. These results suggest that southern New England salt marshes are already experiencing deterioration and fragmentation in response to sea level rise and may not be stable as tidal flooding increases in the future.

Paths to resilience: Alaska pollock fleet uses multiple fishing strategies to buffer against environmental change in the Bering Sea - Watson, Jordan T.; Haynie, Alan C. (Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2018)

Drivers of the recent tropical expansion in the Southern Hemisphere: Changing SSTs or ozone depletion? - Waugh, Darryn W.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Polvani, Lorenzo M. (Journal of Climate, 2015)
Observational evidence indicates that the southern edge of the Hadley cell (HC) has shifted southward during austral summer in recent decades. However, there is no consensus on the cause of this shift, with several studies reaching opposite conclusions as to the relative role of changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and stratospheric ozone depletion in causing this shift. Here, the authors perform a meta-analysis of the extant literature on this subject and quantitatively compare the results of all published studies that have used single-forcing model integrations to isolate the role of different factors on the HC expansion during austral summer. It is shown that the weight of the evidence clearly points to stratospheric ozone depletion as the dominant driver of the tropical summertime expansion over the period in which an ozone hole was formed (1979 to late 1990s), although SST trends have contributed to trends since then. Studies that have claimed SSTs as the major driver of tropical expansion since 1979 have used prescribed ozone fields that underrepresent the observed Antarctic ozone depletion.
Keywords: Hadley circulation,Subsidence,Ozone,Trends

Accelerating loss of seagrasses across the globe threatens coastal ecosystems - Waycott, M.; Duarte, C. M.; Carruthers, T. J.; Orth, R. J.; Dennison, W. C.; Olyarnik, S.; Calladine, A.; Fourqurean, J. W.; Heck, K. L., Jr.; Hughes, A. R.; Kendrick, G. A.; Kenworthy, W. J.; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009)
Coastal ecosystems and the services they provide are adversely affected by a wide variety of human activities. In particular, seagrass meadows are negatively affected by impacts accruing from the billion or more people who live within 50 km of them. Seagrass meadows provide important ecosystem services, including an estimated $1.9 trillion per year in the form of nutrient cycling; an order of magnitude enhancement of coral reef fish productivity; a habitat for thousands of fish, bird, and invertebrate species; and a major food source for endangered dugong, manatee, and green turtle. Although individual impacts from coastal development, degraded water quality, and climate change have been documented, there has been no quantitative global assessment of seagrass loss until now. Our comprehensive global assessment of 215 studies found that seagrasses have been disappearing at a rate of 110 km(2) yr(-1) since 1980 and that 29% of the known areal extent has disappeared since seagrass areas were initially recorded in 1879. Furthermore, rates of decline have accelerated from a median of 0.9% yr(-1) before 1940 to 7% yr(-1) since 1990. Seagrass loss rates are comparable to those reported for mangroves, coral reefs, and tropical rainforests and place seagrass meadows among the most threatened ecosystems on earth.
Waycott, Michelle Duarte, Carlos M Carruthers, Tim J B Orth, Robert J Dennison, William C Olyarnik, Suzanne Calladine, Ainsley Fourqurean, James W Heck, Kenneth L Jr Hughes, A Randall Kendrick, Gary A Kenworthy, W Judson Short, Frederick T Williams, Susan L Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. United States Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Jul 28;106(30):12377-81. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0905620106. Epub 2009 Jul 8.
Keywords: Alismatidae/ growth & development Animals Conservation of Natural Resources/methods/ statistics & numerical data Ecosystem Environmental Monitoring/methods/ statistics & numerical data Humans Marine Biology Population Density Population Dynamics Seawater

Increasing flooding hazard in coastal communities due to rising sea level: Case study of Miami Beach, Florida - Wdowinski, Shimon; Bray, Ronald; Kirtman, Ben P.; Wu, Zhaohua (Ocean & Coastal Management, 2016)
Keywords: Sea level rise Flooding hazard Tide gauge record EEMD Southeast Florida

From sink to source: Regional variation in U.S. forest carbon futures - Wear, David N.; Coulston, John W. (Scientific Reports, 2015)

US forest products in the global economy - Wear, David N.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Foster, Michaela O. (Journal of Forestry, 2016)
The United States' shares of global industrial roundwood production and derivative products have declined precipitously since the 1990s. We evaluate the extent of these declines compared with those of major producing countries from 1961 to 2013. We find that the US global share of industrial roundwood peaked at 28% in 1999 but by 2013 was at 17%, with the decline attributable to a combination of cyclical factors and long-run trends. Wood products output declines are linked to low construction levels, whereas paper's decline is connected to the offshoring of US manufacturing and growth in electronic media. Prospects are for increased use of wood in construction as the housing market returns to long-run averages in the coming years. However, the paper sector is unlikely to recover to its 1990s levels of output, implying that it is unlikely that the United States will return to its historical highs in global market share of industrial roundwood production. Management and Policy Implications Several trends and cyclical changes in final wood products markets imply changes in the demand for timber and forest management in the United States. Although sawtimber demands are beginning to recover, the paper sector's demand for pulpwood from thinnings or final harvest is likely to decline somewhat steadily into the foreseeable future. The effect of the decline will be to put downward pressure on pulpwood prices and reduce returns from intensive forestry. Increased demand for pulpwood driven by the wood pellet market in the southeastern United States, especially for export to Europe, could limit or reverse expected price declines. However, the export component of this market is largely the result of supporting European Union energy policies, which are subject to change in the long run. Recovering housing markets should result in demand growth for softwood lumber and related products. Changes in building codes, allowing for taller and larger wood-frame construction, could lead to further growth in wood demand by the construction sector. Growing inventories of large diameter timber in the US South and Pacific Northwest imply that low-cost timber will be available for construction and manufacturing, which should help wood remain competitive against nonwood construction substitutes and stem the decline in global market share in the long run.
Keywords: forest sector industrial roundwood market share timber products

Observed and projected impacts of climate change on marine fisheries, aquaculture, coastal tourism, and human health: An update - Weatherdon, Lauren V.; Magnan, Alexandre K.; Rogers, Alex D.; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Cheung, William W. L. (Frontiers in Marine Science, 2016)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) states that climate change and ocean acidification are altering the oceans at a rate that is unprecedented compared with the recent past, leading to multifaceted impacts on marine ecosystems, associated goods and services, and human societies. AR5 underlined key uncertainties that remain regarding how synergistic changes in the ocean are likely to affect human systems, and how humans are likely to respond to these events. As climate change research has accelerated rapidly following AR5, an updated synthesis of available knowledge is necessary to identify emerging evidence, and to thereby better inform policy discussions. This paper reviews the literature to capture corroborating, conflicting, and novel findings published following the cut-off date for contribution to AR5. Specifically, we highlight key scientific developments on the impacts of climate-induced changes in the ocean on key socioeconomic sectors, including fisheries, aquaculture and tourism. New evidence continues to support a climate-induced redistribution of benefits and losses at multiple scales and across coastal and marine socio-ecological systems, partly resulting from species and ecosystem range shifts and changes in primary productivity. New efforts have been made to characterize and value ecosystem services in the context of climate change, with specific relevance to ecosystem-based adaptation. Recent studies have also explored synergistic interactions between climatic drivers, and have found strong variability between impacts on species at different life stages. Although climate change may improve conditions for some types of freshwater aquaculture, potentially providing alternative opportunities to adapt to impacts on wild capture fisheries, ocean acidification poses a risk to shellfish fisheries and aquaculture. The risk of increased prevalence of disease under warmer temperatures is uncertain, and may detrimentally affect human health. Climate change may also induce changes in tourism flows, leading to substantial geospatial shifts in economic costs and benefits associated with tourism revenue and coastal infrastructure protection and repairs. While promising, ecosystem-based coastal adaptation approaches are still emerging, and require an improved understanding of key ecosystem services and values for coastal communities in order to assess risk, aid coastal development planning, and build decision support systems.
Keywords: Climate change impacts,Fisheries,Aquaculture,Coastal Tourism,Human health,Food security,ecosystem-based adaptation,ocean impacts

Projected scenarios for coastal First Nations’ fisheries catch potential under climate change: Management challenges and opportunities - Weatherdon, Lauren V.; Ota, Yoshitaka; Jones, Miranda C.; Close, David A.; Cheung, William W. L. (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade-1 by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations’ territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers’ knowledge.

Changes in weather persistence: Insight from Inuit knowledge - Weatherhead, E.; Gearheard, S.; Barry, R. G. (Global Environmental Change, 2010)
Keywords: Climate change Arctic Persistence Inuit Temperature

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: Recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment - Weaver, Christopher; Moss, Richard; Ebi, Kristie; Gleick, Peter; Stern, Paul; Tebaldi, Claudia; Wilson, Robyn; Arvai, Joseph (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)

A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations - Weaver, C.P.; Cooter, E.; Gilliam, R.; Gilliland, A.; Grambsch, A.; Grano, D.; Hemming, B.; Hunt, S.W.; Nolte, C.; Winner, D. A.; Liang, X-Z.; Zhu, J.; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009)

Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: The value and demands of robust decision frameworks - Weaver, Christopher P.; Lempert, Robert J.; Brown, Casey; Hall, John A.; Revell, David; Sarewitz, Daniel (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2013)

Consequences of climate change for biotic disturbances in North American forests - Weed, Aaron S.; Ayres, Matthew P.; Hicke, Jeffrey A. (Ecological Monographs, 2013)
Keywords: atmospheric drivers bark beetles defoliators economic impact ecosystem interactions forest health management greenhouses gases outbreak pathogens

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a tree-killing beetle and its predator - Weed, Aaron S.; Ayres, Matthew P.; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Billings, Ronald F. (Ecography, 2017)

Climate change scenario planning: A tool for managing parks into uncertain futures - Weeks, D.; Malone, P.; Welling, L. (Park Science, 2011)

Report - Weerasinghe, Sanjula; Martin, Susan; Türk, Volker; Riera, José; Franck, Marine; McAdam, Jane; Ferris, Elizabeth (Planned Relocation, Disasters and Climate Change: Consolidating Good Practices and Preparing for the Future, 2014)

Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: Model performance and projections - Wehner, M.F. (Climate Dynamics, 2013)
Seasonal extreme daily precipitation is analyzed in the ensemble of NARCAPP regional climate models. Significant variation in these models’ abilities to reproduce observed precipitation extremes over the contiguous United States is found. Model performance metrics are introduced to characterize overall biases, seasonality, spatial extent and the shape of the precipitation distribution. Comparison of the models to gridded observations that include an elevation correction is found to be better than to gridded observations without this correction. A complicated model weighting scheme based on model performance in simulating observations is found to cause significant improvements in ensemble mean skill only if some of the models are poorly performing outliers. The effect of lateral boundary conditions are explored by comparing the integrations driven by reanalysis to those driven by global climate models. Projected mid-century future changes in seasonal precipitation means and extremes are presented and discussions of the sources of uncertainty and the mechanisms causing these changes are presented.
Keywords: Extreme precipitation; Climate models; Return value; Uncertainty; High resolution

Droughts, floods, and wildfires - Wehner, M.F.; Arnold, J.R.; Knutson, T.; Kunkel, K.E.; LeGrande, A.N. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols - Wehner, M. F.; Reed, K. A.; Loring, B.; Stone, D.; Krishnan, H. (Earth System Dynamics, 2018)
ESD

Global pattern of soil carbon losses due to the conversion of forests to agricultural land - Wei, Xiaorong; Shao, Mingan; Gale, William; Li, Linhai (Scientific Reports, 2014)

How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs - Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Janssen, Annette B. G.; Kuiper, Jan J.; Leemans, Rik; Robson, Barbara J.; van de Leemput, Ingrid A.; Mooij, Wolf M. (Progress in Oceanography, 2015)

Bathymetric shift in the distribution of Atlantic surfclams: Response to warmer ocean temperature - Weinberg, James R. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2005)
Standard research vessel surveys during the 1980s and early 1990s demonstrated that Atlantic surfclams ( Spisula solidissima solidissima ) were common in the southern portion of their range (37–38°N) along the east coast of North America in the Delmarva region. Based on data from these surveys, the probability of capturing surfclams in shallow water (i.e. 20 m) tows of the Delmarva region was 75–85% in 1994 and 1997. In 1999 and 2002, this probability declined to 40–55%. The probability of capturing surfclams in survey tows from deeper waters (40–50 m) also declined, but this change was relatively small compared with that in shallower water. These changes were not the result of commercial clam fishing. Unusually warm water, which induces thermal stress in S. s. solidissima , was prevalent within the period from 1999 to 2002 over the Delmarva continental shelf during fall when annual bottom temperature was peaking. The combined effects of poor physiological condition and thermal stress likely resulted in mortality of Atlantic surfclams in shallow water habitats in the Delmarva region. This resulted in a shift in the bathymetric distribution of the population to deeper water. Between 1982 and 1997, most of the surfclams in the Delmarva region occurred at depths between 25 and 35 m, whereas in 1999 and 2002, most of the Delmarva population occurred at 35–40 m.

Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios - Weinberger, Kate R.; Haykin, Leah; Eliot, Melissa N.; Schwartz, Joel D.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Wellenius, Gregory A. (Environment International, 2017)
Keywords: Climate change Ambient temperature Health impacts United States

Looking Abroad: How Other Nations Approach a National Climate Assessment - Weingartner, K.; Dave, A.; Reidmiller, D.R. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Social and cultural issues raised by climate change in Pacific Island countries: An overview - Weir, Tony; Dovey, Liz; Orcherton, Dan (Regional Environmental Change, 2017)
Climate-related disasters such as tropical cyclones, floods and droughts are not new to Pacific Islanders, who have developed customary or ‘traditional’ practices to enable communities to adapt and recover from such hazards. Some of these practices have been degraded and some assisted by modernisation. Through their effects on the island environment, these hazards have a range of socio-economic impacts on food (fisheries and crops) and water supply, tourism, and coastal buildings and infrastructure. The varied impacts of climate change not only exacerbate those hazards but also raise new threats, such as sea level rise and ocean acidification, that have no precedent in the past 500 years, and for which there are therefore no traditional adaptations, although Pacific innate ingenuity and resilience remains strong. These issues are particularly acute for the low-lying atoll countries whose continued existence is threatened by sea level rise, but also affect those that live on higher islands in coastal settlements, where most of their population is concentrated. Climate change thus sharpens social and cultural issues of equity (reflecting disparities in location, income, education, gender, health and age), made even more acute by increased levels of voluntary or forced migration within, and even more so beyond, island country boundaries. Consequently, many islanders see climate change as a moral challenge to the richer countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions that are causing the problem.

Heat-related morbidity and mortality in New England: Evidence for local policy - Wellenius, Gregory A.; Eliot, Melissa N.; Bush, Kathleen F.; Holt, Dennis; Lincoln, Rebecca A.; Smith, Andy E.; Gold, Julia (Environmental Research, 2017)

State of the California Current 2016-2017: Still anything but “normal” in the north - Wells, Brian K.; Schroeder, Isaac D.; Bograd, Steven J.; Hazen, Elliott L.; Jacox, Michael G.; Leising, Andrew; Mantua, Nathan; Santora, Jarrod A.; Fisher, Jennifer; Peterson, William.T.; Bjorkstedt, Eric; Robertson, Roxanne R.; et al. (CalCOFI Reports, 2017)

Strong temperature increase and shrinking sea ice in Arctic Alaska - Wendler, Gerd; Moore, Blake; Galloway, Kevin (The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2014)

Invasive pneumococcal disease in Alaskan children: Impact of the seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and the role of water supply - Wenger, Jay D.; Zulz, Tammy; Bruden, Dana; Singleton, Rosalyn; Bruce, Michael G.; Bulkow, Lisa; Parks, Debbie; Rudolph, Karen; Hurlburt, Debby; Ritter, Troy; Klejka, Joseph; Hennessy, Thomas (Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 2010)
Keywords: Alaska/epidemiology Child, Preschool Female Hand Disinfection Heptavalent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Male Pneumococcal Infections/*epidemiology Pneumococcal Vaccines/*administration & dosage/*immunology Serotyping Socioeconomic Factors Streptococcus pneumoniae/*classification/immunology/*isolation & purification *Water Microbiology *Water Supply

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change - Wenger, Seth J.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Luce, Charles H.; Neville, Helen M.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Dunham, Jason B.; Dauwalter, Daniel C.; Young, Michael K.; Elsner, Marketa M.; Rieman, Bruce E.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Williams, Jack E. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011)

Planning for the effects of climate change on natural resources - Wentz, Jessica (Environmental Law Reporter, 2017)

Assessing the impacts of climate change on the built environment: A framework for environmental reviews - Wentz, Jessica A. (Environmental Law Reporter, 2015)

Projected land photosynthesis constrained by changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 - Wenzel, Sabrina; Cox, Peter M.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre (Nature, 2016)

Community epistemic capacity - Werkheiser, Ian (Social Epistemology, 2016)

Reliability and resiliency in New Jersey - Wernsing, Richard (IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, 2014)

Did we see it coming? State fragility, climate vulnerability, and the uprisings in Syria and Egypt - Werrell, Caitlin E.; Femia, Francesco; Sternberg, Troy (SAIS Review of International Affairs, 2015)

Impacts of warming revealed by linking resource growth rates with consumer functional responses - West, Derek C.; Post, David M. (Journal of Animal Ecology, 2016)
Keywords: climate change consumer–resource dynamics Daphnia growth rate phytoplankton temperature

Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health - West, J. Jason; Smith, Steven J.; Silva, Raquel A.; Naik, Vaishali; Zhang, Yuqiang; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M.; Anenberg, Susan; Horowitz, Larry W.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

Human mortality effects of future concentrations of tropospheric ozone - West, J. Jason; Szopa, Sophie; Hauglustaine, Didier A. (Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 2007)
Keywords: Ozone Air pollution Human mortality Atmospheric modeling Health effects Future scenarios Tropospheric chemistry Pollution de l’air Mortalité humaine Modélisation atmosphérique Effets sur la santé Scénarios futurs Chimie troposphérique

Carbon cycle science in support of decision making - West, T.O.; Gurwick, N.; Brown, M.E.; Duren, R.; Mooney, S.; Paustian, K.; McGlynn, E.; Malone, E.; Rosenblatt, A.; Hultman, N.; Ocko, I. (Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report, 2018)

Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: Sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring - Westerling, Anthony LeRoy (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2016)

Correction to "‘Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring" - Westerling, Anthony LeRoy (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2016)

Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire - Westerling, A.L.; Bryant, B.P.; Preisler, H.K.; Holmes, T.P.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Das, T.; Shrestha, S.R. (Climatic Change, 2011)

Climate, Santa Ana Winds and autumn wildfires in southern California - Westerling, Anthony L.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Brown, Timothy J.; Hall, Beth L.; Riddle, Laurence G. (Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 2004)
Wildfires periodically burn large areas of chaparral and adjacent woodlands in autumn and winter in southern California. These fires often occur in conjunction with Santa Ana weather events, which combine high winds and low humidity, and tend to follow a wet winter rainy season. Because conditions fostering large fall and winter wildfires in California are the result of large-scale patterns in atmospheric circulation, the same dangerous conditions are likely to occur over a wide area at the same time. Furthermore, over a century of watershed reserve management and fire suppression have promoted fuel accumulations, helping to shape one of the most conflagration-prone environments in the world [Pyne, 1997]. Combined with a complex topography and a large human population, southern Californian ecology and climate pose a considerable physical and societal challenge to fire management.

Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity - Westerling, A.L.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Cayan, D.R.; Swetnam, T.W. (Science, 2006)
Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.
Keywords: PONDEROSA PINE FORESTS; UNITED-STATES; VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION; CLIMATE-CHANGE; FIRE REGIMES; VARIABILITY; PERSPECTIVE; ECOSYSTEMS; ENSO

Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century - Westerling, Anthony L.; Turner, Monica G.; Smithwick, Erica A. H.; Romme, William H.; Ryan, Michael G. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011)
Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972–1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated and then used with downscaled (∼12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to <30 y from the historical 100–300 y for most of the GYE. Years without large fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire–climate–vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and may indicate similar changes for other subalpine forests.

Quantifying PM2.5-meteorology sensitivities in a global climate model - Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L. (Atmospheric Environment, 2016)
Keywords: PM Climate change Climate model Sensitivity

Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation - Westra, Seth; Alexander, Lisa V.; Zwiers, Francis W. (Journal of Climate, 2013)
This study investigates the presence of trends in annual maximum daily precipitation time series obtained from a global dataset of 8326 high-quality land-based observing stations with more than 30 years of record over the period from 1900 to 2009. Two complementary statistical techniques were adopted to evaluate the possible nonstationary behavior of these precipitation data. The first was a Mann–Kendall nonparametric trend test, and it was used to evaluate the existence of monotonic trends. The second was a nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis, and it was used to determine the strength of association between the precipitation extremes and globally averaged near-surface temperature. The outcomes are that statistically significant increasing trends can be detected at the global scale, with close to two-thirds of stations showing increases. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant association with globally averaged near-surface temperature, with the median intensity of extreme precipitation changing in proportion with changes in global mean temperature at a rate of between 5.9% and 7.7% K−1, depending on the method of analysis. This ratio was robust irrespective of record length or time period considered and was not strongly biased by the uneven global coverage of precipitation data. Finally, there is a distinct meridional variation, with the greatest sensitivity occurring in the tropics and higher latitudes and the minima around 13°S and 11°N. The greatest uncertainty was near the equator because of the limited number of sufficiently long precipitation records, and there remains an urgent need to improve data collection in this region to better constrain future changes in tropical precipitation.
Keywords: Rainfall,Climate change,Climate sensitivity,Trends

Some contributions of integrated assessment models of global climate change - Weyant, John (Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2017)
This article reviews the use of integrated assessment models (IAMs) in climate policy and research at the global scale. Two different types of IAMs are discussed. First, there are models that focus on climate change mitigation options and climate change impacts in some detail without necessarily valuing or aggregating all possible impacts into a single measure of projected climate damages. Here they are called detailed process (DP) IAMs. A second class of IAMs are much more highly aggregated and focus on calculating carbon emissions trajectories and carbon prices that maximize global welfare. Here these models are referred to as aggregate benefit–cost analysis (BCA) IAMs.Early IAMs of both types were introduced about 30 years ago and by now have been applied to many important policy and research design issues. Continual advancements in physical and economic system understanding, modeling techniques, and computational power should continue to open up many additional opportunities for using these models to provide relevant information to decision makers. While the models can be improved in many areas, much of the uncertainty that exists reflects a lack of complete scientific understanding of the systems involved rather than limitations of one or another approach to model construction and use.
10.1093/reep/rew018

Model Code of Practice: Principles of Climate Change Adaptation for Engineers - WFEO Committee on Engineering and the Environment (World Federation of Engineering Organizations (WFEO), 2015)

R4: Rural Resilience Initiative. Annual Report - WFP; Oxfam America (World Food Programme (WFP) and Oxfam America, 2016)

Assessing the relative effects of emissions, climate means, and variability on large water supply systems - Whateley, Sarah; Brown, Casey (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: climate change natural variability adaptation water supply 1807 Climate impacts 1873 Uncertainty assessment 1880 Water management 1884 Water supply 3305 Climate change and variability

A climate change range‐based method for estimating robustness for water resources supply - Whateley, Sarah; Steinschneider, Scott; Brown, Casey (Water Resources Research, 2014)
Many water planning and operation decisions are affected by climate uncertainty. Given concerns about the effects of uncertainty on the outcomes of long‐term decisions, many water planners seek adaptation alternatives that are robust given a wide range of possible climate futures. However, there is no standardized paradigm for quantifying robustness in the water sector. This study uses a new framework for assessing the impact of future climate change and uncertainty on water supply systems and defines and demonstrates a new metric for quantifying climate robustness. The metric is based on the range of climate change space over which an alternative provides acceptable performance. The metric is independent of assumptions regarding future climate; however, GCM‐based (or other) climate projections can be used to create a “climate‐informed” version of the metric. The method is demonstrated for a water supply system in the northeast United States to evaluate the additional robustness that can be attained through optimal operational changes, by comparing optimal reservoir operations with current reservoir operations. Results show the additional robustness gained through adaptation. They also reveal the additional insight regarding robust adaptation gained from the decision‐scaling approach that would not be discerned using a GCM projection‐based analysis.

Climate change impacts on global food security - Wheeler, T.; von Braun, J. (Science, 2013)
Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.
Wheeler, Tim von Braun, Joachim Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Review United States Science. 2013 Aug 2;341(6145):508-13. doi: 10.1126/science.1239402.
Keywords: Climate Change Crops, Agricultural Decision Making Food Supply Humans Hunger

Southeastern Connecticut Regional Resilience Guidebook - White, Cary; Whelche, Adam W. (The Nature Conservancy, Community Resilience Building Initiative, 2017)

Stakeholder analysis for the food-energy-water nexus in Phoenix, Arizona: Implications for nexus governance - White, Dave; Jones, J.; Maciejewski, Ross; Aggarwal, Rimjhim; Mascaro, Giuseppe (Sustainability, 2017)

Food and water security in a changing arctic climate - White, Daniel M.; Gerlach, S. Craig; Loring, Philip; Tidwell, Amy C.; Chambers, Molly C. (Environmental Research Letters, 2007)
In the Arctic, permafrost extends up to 500 m below the ground surface, and it is generally just the top metre that thaws in summer. Lakes, rivers, and wetlands on the arctic landscape are normally not connected with groundwater in the same way that they are in temperate regions. When the surface is frozen in winter, only lakes deeper than 2 m and rivers with significant flow retain liquid water. Surface water is largely abundant in summer, when it serves as a breeding ground for fish, birds, and mammals. In winter, many mammals and birds are forced to migrate out of the Arctic. Fish must seek out lakes or rivers deep enough to provide good overwintering habitat. Humans in the Arctic rely on surface water in many ways. Surface water meets domestic needs such as drinking, cooking, and cleaning as well as subsistence and industrial demands. Indigenous communities depend on sea ice and waterways for transportation across the landscape and access to traditional country foods. The minerals, mining, and oil and gas industries also use large quantities of surface water during winter to build ice roads and maintain infrastructure. As demand for this limited, but heavily-relied-upon resource continues to increase, it is now more critical than ever to understand the impacts of climate change on food and water security in the Arctic.

The impact of climate change on marine recreational fishing with implications for the social cost of carbon - Whitehead, John; Willard, Daniel (Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics, 2016)

A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality - Whitehead, P. G.; Wilby, R. L.; Battarbee, R. W.; Kernan, M.; Wade, A. J. (Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2009)
It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.
Keywords: climate change water quality rivers catchments lakes estuaries ecology hydrochemistry high-mountain lakes dissolved organic-carbon multiple source assessment weser estuary region organochlorine compounds nitrogen model upland stream river kennet urban areas episodic acidification

Genetic rescue to the rescue - Whiteley, Andrew R.; Fitzpatrick, Sarah W.; Funk, W. Chris; Tallmon, David A. (Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2015)
Keywords: genetic rescue inbreeding depression outbreeding depression heterosis adaptive evolution endangered species evolutionary rescue

The Winds of Change? Exploring Climate Change-Driven Migration and Related Impacts in the Pacific Northwest - Whitely Binder, Lara C.; Jurjevich, Jason R. (University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group and Portland State University Population Research Center, 2016)

Strategies to reduce the harmful effects of extreme heat events: A four-city study - White-Newsome, Jalonne; McCormick, Sabrina; Sampson, Natalie; Buxton, Miatta; O'Neill, Marie; Gronlund, Carina; Catalano, Linda; Conlon, Kathryn; Parker, Edith (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2014)

A policy approach toward climate justice - White-Newsome, Jalonne Lynay (The Black Scholar, 2016)

The integrated transport and health impact modeling tool in Nashville, Tennessee, USA: Implementation steps and lessons learned - Whitfield, Geoffrey P.; Meehan, Leslie A.; Maizlish, Neil; Wendel, Arthur M. (Journal of Transport & Health, 2017)

Floods in future climates: A review - Whitfield, P. H. (Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2012)
Keywords: Climate change floods land use modelling

The 2017 Montana climate assessment: Stakeholder driven, science informed - Whitlock, Cathy; Cross, Wyatt F.; Maxwell, Bruce; Silverman, Nick; Wade, Alisa A. (Montana State University, Montana Institute on Ecosystems, 2017)

The role of climate and vegetation change in shaping past and future fire regimes in the northwestern US and the implications for ecosystem management - Whitlock, Cathy; Shafer, Sarah L.; Marlon, Jennifer (Forest Ecology and Management, 2003)
Keywords: Fire history Charcoal records Holocene climate change Future fire conditions Western US

Consecutive wildfires affect stream biota in cold- and warmwater dryland river networks - Whitney, James E.; Gido, Keith B.; Pilger, Tyler J.; Propst, David L.; Turner, Thomas F. (Freshwater Science, 2015)
Climate change and fire suppression have altered fire regimes globally, leading to larger, more frequent, and more severe wildfires. Responses of coldwater stream biota to single wildfires are well studied, but measured responses to consecutive wildfires in warmwater systems that often include mixed assemblages of native and nonnative taxa are lacking. We quantified changes in physical habitat, resource availability, and biomass of cold- and warmwater oligochaetes, insects, crayfish, fishes, and tadpoles following consecutive megafires (covering >100 km2) in the upper Gila River, New Mexico, USA. We were particularly interested in comparing responses of native and nonnative fishes that might have evolved under different disturbance regimes. Changes in habitat and resource availability were related to cumulative fire effects, fire size, and postfire precipitation. The 2nd of 2 consecutive wildfires in the basin was larger and, coupled with moderate postfire discharge, resulted in increased siltation and decreased algal biomass. Several insect taxa responded to these fires with reduced biomass, whereas oligochaete biomass was unaffected. Biomass of 6 of 7 native fish species decreased after the fires, and decreases were associated with site proximity to fire. Nonnative fish decreases after fire were most pronounced for coldwater salmonids, and warmwater nonnative fishes exhibited limited responses. All crayfish and tadpoles collected were nonnative and were unresponsive to fire disturbance. More pronounced responses of native insects and fishes to fires indicate that increasing fire size and frequency threatens the persistence of native fauna and suggests that management activities promoting ecosystem resilience might help ameliorate wildfire effects.
Keywords: mega-fire,native fish,invasive species,macroinvertebrates,warmwater stream,disturbance, ash flows

Ambient Air Pollution: A Global Assessment of Exposure and Burden of Disease - WHO (World Health Organization (WHO), 2016)
9789241511353

Review of Evidence on Health Aspects of Air Pollution—REVIHAAP Project: Final Technical Report - WHO/Europe (World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, 2013)

Alaska Energy Authority: End Use Study - WHPacific (WHPacific, 2012)

Justice forward: Tribes, climate adaptation and responsibility - Whyte, Kyle Powys (Climatic Change, 2013)

A concern about shifting interactions between indigenous and non-indigenous parties in US climate adaptation contexts - Whyte, Kyle Powys (Interdisciplinary Environmental Review, 2014)

Why the Native American pipeline resistance in North Dakota is about climate justice - Whyte, Kyle Powys (The Conversation US: Environment + Energy, 2016)

Is it colonial déjà vu? Indigenous Peoples and climate injustice - Whyte, Kyle Powys (Humanities for the Environment: Integrating Knowledge, Forging New Constellations of Practice, 2017)

Combining NLCD and MODIS to create a land cover-albedo database for the continental United States - Wickham, J; Barnes, CA; Nash, MS; Wade, TG (Remote Sensing of Environment, 2015)

Effect of land cover change on snow free surface albedo across the continental United States - Wickham, J; Nash, MS; Barnes, Christopher A (Global and Planetary Change, 2016)

An isoline separating relatively warm from relatively cool wintertime forest surface temperatures for the southeastern United States - Wickham, J; Wade, TG; Riitters, KH (Global and Planetary Change, 2014)

Comparison of cropland and forest surface temperatures across the conterminous United States - Wickham, James D; Wade, Timothy G; Riitters, Kurt H (Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2012)

Empirical analysis of the influence of forest extent on annual and seasonal surface temperatures for the continental United States - Wickham, James D; Wade, Timothy G; Riitters, Kurt H (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2013)

Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific - Widlansky, Matthew J.; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju (Science Advances, 2015)
Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño–related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise. Using climate models forced by increasing greenhouse gases, we find a doubling in extreme sea levels in the tropical Pacific. Using climate models forced by increasing greenhouse gases, we find a doubling in extreme sea levels in the tropical Pacific.
Keywords: ENSO Pacific Ocean climate projections Sea level

Linking Land Quality, Agricultural Productivity, and Food Security - Wiebe, Keith (USDA Economic Research Service, 2003)

Future productivity and carbon storage limited by terrestrial nutrient availability - Wieder, William R.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Smith, W. Kolby; Todd-Brown, Katherine (Nature Geoscience, 2015)

Prescribed fire as a means of reducing forest carbon emissions in the western United States - Wiedinmyer, Christine; Hurteau, Matthew D. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2010)

Vulnerability of crops and croplands in the US Northern Plains to predicted climate change - Wienhold, Brian J.; Vigil, Merle F.; Hendrickson, John R.; Derner, Justin D. (Climatic Change, 2018)
The states of Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming comprise the Northern Great Plains region of the USA. The soil and water resources contained in this region have historically supported highly diverse and productive agriculture enterprises that provide a significant proportion of the food, feed, and oilseed for the nation. The region also provides ecological services that influence air, water, and soil quality along with biological diversity. Combined with livestock production and a biofuel industry, crop production forms an integrated system that can offer producers flexibility in management decisions. Projected climatic changes for this region include increasing atmospheric CO2, a longer, warmer growing season, and increased precipitation, likely received in more frequent extreme events. These changes will impact soil and water resources in the region and create opportunities and challenges for land managers. The objectives of this paper are to describe anticipated impacts of projected mid-(2050) and late-(2085) climatic changes on crop production systems in the Northern Great Plains and provide adaptation strategies that should be developed to take advantage of positive and mitigate negative changes. Projected climatic changes will influence agricultural productivity directly as well as indirectly due to changes in weed pressure, insect populations, and diseases. A warmer, longer growing season will change the crops and distribution of those crops grown within the region. An increase in the number of extreme temperature events (high daytime highs or nighttime lows) will decrease crop yields due to increased plant stress during critical pollination and grain fill periods. Adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of soil and water resources to projected climatic changes include increasing cropping intensity, reducing tillage intensity, and use of cover crops to provide surface cover to reduce erosion potential and improve nutrient and water use efficiency. Increased use of perennial forages, crop residue, and failed crops in integrated crop-livestock systems will add biological diversity and provide options for converting vegetation biomass into animal protein. Socio-economic changes will need to be incorporated into adaptation strategies planning to insure that sustaining ecosystem services and meeting desired production and conservation goals is accomplished. Education and extension services will be needed to transfer adaptive knowledge in a timely manner to producers in the field.

Biofuels and biodiversity - Wiens, John; Fargione, Joseph; Hill, Jason (Ecological Applications, 2011)
Keywords: biodiversity biofuels Conservation Reserve Program corn ethanol Henslow's Sparrow land use

Climate-related local extinctions are already widespread among plant and animal species - Wiens, John J. (PLOS Biology, 2016)
Climate change is an important threat to the world’s plant and animal species, including species on which humans depend. However, predicting how species will respond to future climate change is very difficult. In this study, I analyze the extinctions caused by the climate change that has already occurred. Numerous studies find that species are shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, typically moving to higher elevations and latitudes. These studies also contain valuable data on local extinctions, as they document the loss of populations at the “warm edge” of species’ ranges (lower elevations and latitudes). Here, I use these data to show that recent local extinctions related to climate change have already occurred in hundreds of species around the world. Specifically, among 976 species surveyed, local extinctions occurred in 47%. These extinctions are common across climatic zones, habitats, and groups of organisms but are especially common in tropical regions (which contain most of Earth’s species), in animals (relative to plants), and in freshwater habitats. In summary, this study reveals local extinctions in hundreds of species related to the limited global warming that has already occurred. These extinctions will almost certainly increase as global climate continues to warm in the coming decades.

A climate change adaptation strategy for management of coastal marsh systems - Wigand, Cathleen; Ardito, Thomas; Chaffee, Caitlin; Ferguson, Wenley; Paton, Suzanne; Raposa, Kenneth; Vandemoer, Charles; Watson, Elizabeth (Estuaries and Coasts, 2017)
Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coastal systems faced with deteriorating habitat, accelerated sea level rise, and changes in precipitation and storm patterns.

2016 Water Innovations for Healthy Arctic Homes (WIHAH) Conference - WIHAH (Arctic Council, 2017)

Climate Change and Energy Supply and Use. Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment - Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Bilello, D.; Schmalzer, D.; Scott, M. (Island Press, 2014)

Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities - Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Fernandez, Steven (Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Quantifying threats to imperiled species in the United States: Assessing the relative importance of habitat destruction, alien species, pollution, overexploitation, and disease - Wilcove, David S.; Rothstein, David; Dubow, Jason; Phillips, Ali; Losos, Elizabeth (BioScience, 1998)

Red Alert!: Saving the Planet with Indigenous Knowledge - Wildcat, D.R. (Fulcrum Publishing, 2009)

Introduction: Climate change and indigenous peoples of the USA - Wildcat, Daniel R. (Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples in the United States: Impacts, Experiences and Actions, 2014)
This special issue of Climatic Change, dedicated to the examination of impacts of climate change on indigenous peoples and their homelands, and proposed strategies of adaptation, constitutes a compelling and timely report on what is happening in Native homelands and communities. Indigenous peoples and marginalized populations are particularly exposed and sensitive to climate change impacts due to their resource-based livelihoods and the location of their homes in vulnerable environments.

Climate change and U.S.-Mexico border communities - Wilder, M.; Garfin, G.; Ganster, P.; Eakin, H.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Lara-Valencia, F.; Cortez-Lara, A. A.; Mumme, S.; Neri, C.; Muñoz-Arriola, F. (Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, 2013)