Multiple stressors in a changing world: The need for an improved perspective on physiological responses to the dynamic marine environment - Gunderson, Alex R.; Armstrong, Eric J.; Stillman, Jonathon H. (Annual Review of Marine Science, 2016)
Abiotic conditions (e.g., temperature and pH) fluctuate through time in most marine environments, sometimes passing intensity thresholds that induce physiological stress. Depending on habitat and season, the peak intensity of different abiotic stressors can occur in or out of phase with one another. Thus, some organisms are exposed to multiple stressors simultaneously, whereas others experience them sequentially. Understanding these physicochemical dynamics is critical because how organisms respond to multiple stressors depends on the magnitude and relative timing of each stressor. Here, we first discuss broad patterns of covariation between stressors in marine systems at various temporal scales. We then describe how these dynamics will influence physiological responses to multi-stressor exposures. Finally, we summarize how multi-stressor effects are currently assessed. We find that multi-stressor experiments have rarely incorporated naturalistic physicochemical variation into their designs, and emphasize the importance of doing so to make ecologically relevant inferences about physiological responses to global change.
Keywords: climate change,environmental fluctuation,intertidal,temperature,ocean acidification,multi-stressor

Coastal regime shifts: Rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover - Guo, Hongyu; Weaver, Carolyn; Charles, Sean P.; Whitt, Ashley; Dastidar, Sayantani; D'Odorico, Paolo; Fuentes, Jose D.; Kominoski, John S.; Armitage, Anna R.; Pennings, Steven C. (Ecology, 2017)
Keywords: coastal ecosystem ecosystem function foundation species mangrove regime shift salt marsh

Support vector machines for predicting distribution of Sudden Oak Death in California - Guo, Qinghua; Kelly, Maggi; Graham, Catherine H. (Ecological Modelling, 2005)
Keywords: Geographic information systems Support vector machines Potential disease spread Sudden Oak Death

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon arctic - Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G. (PLOS ONE, 2014)

Using a Bayesian Network to Predict Shore-Line Change Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of the United States - Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert (U.S. Geological Survey, 2014)

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics - Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron (Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface, 2015)
Keywords: barrier island coastal evolution Bayesian network Assateague Island skill validation 3245 Probabilistic forecasting 4217 Coastal processes 4307 Methods 4324 Spatial decision support systems

Ocean coasts - Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert (Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region, 2009)

Climate justice in rural southeastern United States: A review of climate change impacts and effects on human health - Gutierrez, Kristie; LePrevost, Catherine (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2016)

Analytical studies assessing the association between extreme precipitation or temperature and drinking water-related waterborne infections: A review - Guzman Herrador, Bernardo R.; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; MacDonald, Emily; Nichols, Gordon; Sudre, Bertrand; Vold, Line; Semenza, Jan C.; Nygård, Karin (Environmental Health, 2015)
Determining the role of weather in waterborne infections is a priority public health research issue as climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of extreme precipitation and temperature events. To document the current knowledge on this topic, we performed a literature review of analytical research studies that have combined epidemiological and meteorological data in order to analyze associations between extreme precipitation or temperature and waterborne disease.

Santa Ana winds of Southern California: Their climatology, extremes, and behavior spanning six and a half decades - Guzman-Morales, Janin; Gershunov, Alexander; Theiss, Jurgen; Li, Haiqin; Cayan, Daniel (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) are an integral feature of the regional climate of Southern California/Northern Baja California region, but their climate-scale behavior is poorly understood. In the present work, we identify SAWs in mesoscale dynamical downscaling of a global reanalysis from 1948 to 2012. Model winds are validated with anemometer observations. SAWs exhibit an organized pattern with strongest easterly winds on westward facing downwind slopes and muted magnitudes at sea and over desert lowlands. We construct hourly local and regional SAW indices and analyze elements of their behavior on daily, annual, and multidecadal timescales. SAWs occurrences peak in winter, but some of the strongest winds have occurred in fall. Finally, we observe that SAW intensity is influenced by prominent large-scale low-frequency modes of climate variability rooted in the tropical and north Pacific ocean-atmosphere system.

Ambient temperature and early delivery of singleton pregnancies - Ha, Sandie; Liu, Danping; Zhu, Yeyi; Kim, Sung Soo; Sherman, Seth; Mendola, Pauline (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2017)

The effects of heat stress and its effect modifiers on stroke hospitalizations in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania - Ha, Sandie; Talbott, Evelyn O.; Kan, Haidong; Prins, Cindy A.; Xu, Xiaohui (International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health, 2014)
Heat has been known to increase the risk of many health endpoints. However, few studies have examined its effects on stroke. The objective of this case-crossover study is to investigate the effects of high heat and its effect modifiers on the risk of stroke hospitalization in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania.

Ambient temperature and air quality in relation to small for gestational age and term low birthweight - Ha, Sandie; Zhu, Yeyi; Liu, Danping; Sherman, Seth; Mendola, Pauline (Environmental Research, 2017)
Keywords: Temperature Climate change Fetal growth Low birthweight SGA

Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world - Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Kwakkel, Jan H.; Walker, Warren E.; ter Maat, Judith (Global Environmental Change, 2013)
Keywords: Uncertainty Policymaking Adaptation pathways Adaptive policies Water management Rhine delta

Rising heat wave trends in large US cities - Habeeb, D.; Vargo, J.; Stone, B. (Natural Hazards, 2015)
Exposures to dangerously high temperatures are a public health threat expected to increase with global climate change. Heat waves exacerbate the risks associated with heat exposure, and urban residents are particularly vulnerable to threats of heat waves due to the urban heat island effect. To understand how heat waves are changing over time, we examine changes in four heat wave characteristics from 1961 to 2010, frequency, duration, intensity, and timing, in 50 large US cities. Our purpose in measuring these trends is to assess the extent to which urban populations are increasingly exposed to heat-related health hazards resulting from changing trends in extreme heat. We find each of these heat wave characteristics to be rising significantly when measured over a five-decade period, with the annual number of heat waves increasing by 0.6 heat waves per decade for the average US city. Additionally, on average, we find the length of heat waves to be increasing by a fifth of a day, the intensity to be increasing 0.1 A degrees C above local thresholds, and the length of the heat wave season (time between first and last heat wave) to be increasing by 6 days per decade. The regions most at risk due to increasing heat wave trends must plan appropriately to manage this growing threat by enhancing emergency preparedness plans and minimizing the urban heat island effect.
Keywords: heat Vulnerability UHI health urban climate change

Development of a model to simulate groundwater inundation induced by sea-level rise and high tides in Honolulu, Hawaii - Habel, Shellie; Fletcher, Charles H.; Rotzoll, Kolja; El-Kadi, Aly I. (Water Research, 2017)
Many of the world's largest cities face risk of sea-level rise (SLR) induced flooding owing to their limited elevations and proximities to the coastline. Within this century, global mean sea level is expected to reach magnitudes that will exceed the ground elevation of some built infrastructure. The concurrent rise of coastal groundwater will produce additional sources of inundation resulting from narrowing and loss of the vertical unsaturated subsurface space. This has implications for the dense network of buried and low-lying infrastructure that exists across urban coastal zones. Here, we describe a modeling approach that simulates narrowing of the unsaturated space and groundwater inundation (GWI) generated by SLR-induced lifting of coastal groundwater. The methodology combines terrain modeling, groundwater monitoring, estimation of tidal influence, and numerical groundwater-flow modeling to simulate future flood scenarios considering user-specified tide stages and magnitudes of SLR. We illustrate the value of the methodology by applying it to the heavily urbanized and low-lying Waikiki area of Honolulu, Hawaii. Results indicate that SLR of nearly 1 m generates GWI across 23% of the 13 km2 study area, threatening $5 billion of taxable real estate and 48 km of roadway. Analysis of current conditions reveals that 86% of 259 active cesspool sites in the study area are likely inundated. This suggests that cesspool effluent is currently entering coastal groundwater, which not only leads to degradation of coastal environments, but also presents a future threat to public health as GWI would introduce effluent at the ground surface.
Keywords: sea-level rise Groundwater inundation Groundwater modeling Hazard assessment Tidal flooding

An open source framework for many-objective robust decision making - Hadka, David; Herman, Jonathan; Reed, Patrick; Keller, Klaus (Environmental Modelling & Software, 2015)
Keywords: Robust decision making Deep uncertainty Threshold Scenario discovery Risk assessment Robustness

Putting WASH in the water cycle: Climate change, water resources and the future of water, sanitation and hygiene challenges in Pacific Island Countries - Hadwen, Wade L.; Powell, Bronwyn; MacDonald, Morgan C.; Elliott, Mark; Chan, Terence; Gernjak, Wolfgang; Aalbersberg, William G. L. (Journal of Water Sanitation and Hygiene for Development, 2015)
The Pacific region presents some of the lowest water and sanitation coverage figures globally, with some countries showing stagnating or even declining access to improved water and sanitation. In addition, Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries on the globe to extreme and variable climatic events and sea-level rise caused by climate change. By exploring the state of water and sanitation coverage in PICs and projected climatic variations, we add to the growing case for conserving water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions within a holistic integrated water resource management (IWRM) framework. PICs face unique challenges of increasing variability in rainfall (leading to drought and flooding), increasing temperatures, and likely higher than average sea-level rise, all of which impact on freshwater security. Add to this geographic and economic isolation, and limited human and physical resources, and the challenge of WASH provision increases dramatically. In this setting, there is a stronger case than ever for adopting a holistic systems understanding, as promoted by IWRM frameworks, to WASH interventions so that they consider past and current challenges as well as future scenarios.

Coastal flooding in Florida’s Big Bend Region with application to sea level rise based on synthetic storms analysis - Hagen, Scott C.; Bacopoulos, Peter (Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Journal, 2012)

The Economic Contributions of Winter Sports in a Changing Climate - Hagenstad, Marca; Burakowski, Elizabeth; Hill, Rebecca (Protect Our Winters and REI Co-op, 2018)

Oregon Climate and Health Profile Report - Haggerty, Brendon; York, Emily; Early-Alberts, Julie; Cude, Curtis (Oregon Health Authority, 2014)

A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations - Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, L. Ruby; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Lu, Jian; Gao, Yang (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: atmospheric rivers extreme precipitation climate change global warming moisture transport flooding 1637 Regional climate change 1622 Earth system modeling 1854 Precipitation 1821 Floods 3337 Global climate models

Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay, 1950–2001: Long-term change in relation to nutrient loading and river flow - Hagy, James D.; Boynton, Walter R.; Keefe, Carolyn W.; Wood, Kathryn V. (Estuaries, 2004)
A 52-yr record of dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay (1950–2001) and a record of nitrate (NO3 −) loading by the Susquehanna River spanning a longer period (1903, 1945–2001) were assembled to describe the long-term pattern of hypoxia and anoxia in Chesapeake Bay and its relationship to NO3 − loading. The effect of freshwater inflow on NO3 − loading and hypoxia was also examined to characterize its effect at internannual and longer time scales. Year to year variability in river flow accounted for some of the observed changes in hypoxic volume, but the long-term increase was not due to increased river flow. From 1950–2001, the volume of hypoxic water in mid summer increased substantially and at an accelerating rate. Predicted anoxic volume (DO<0.2 mg I−1) at average river flow increased from zero in 1950 to 3.6×109 m3 in 2001. Severe hypoxia (DO<1.0 mg I−1) increased from 1.6×109 to 6.5×109 m3 over the same period, while mild hypoxia (DO<2.0 mg I−1) increased from 3.4×109 to 9.2×109 m3. NO3 − concentrations in the Susquehanna River at Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, increased up to 3-fold from 1945 to a 1989 maximum and declined through 2001. On a decadal average basis, the superposition of changes in river flow on the long-term increase in NO3 − resulted in a 2-fold increase in NO3 − loading from the Susquehanna River during the 1960s to 1970s. Decadal average loads were subsequently stable through the 1990s. Hypoxia was positively correlated with NO3 − loading, but more extensive hypoxia was observed in recent years than would be expected from the observed relationship. The results suggested that the Bay may have become more susceptible to NO3 − loading. To eliminate or greatly reduce anoxia will require reducing average annual total nitrogen loading to the Maryland mainstem Bay to 50×106 kg yr−1, a reduction of 40% from recent levels.

Reported distribution of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus in the United States, 1995-2016 (Diptera: Culicidae) - Hahn, Micah B.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Eisen, Lars; Boegler, Karen A.; Moore, Chester G.; McAllister, Janet; Savage, Harry M.; Mutebi, John-Paul (Journal of Medical Entomology, 2016)
Aedes ( Stegomyia ) aegypti (L.) and Aedes ( Stegomyia ) albopictus (Skuse) transmit arboviruses that are increasing threats to human health in the Americas, particularly dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Epidemics of the associated arboviral diseases have been limited to South and Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean in the Western Hemisphere, with only minor localized outbreaks in the United States. Nevertheless, accurate and up-to-date information for the geographical ranges of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States is urgently needed to guide surveillance and enhance control capacity for these mosquitoes. We compiled county records for presence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States from 1995-2016, presented here in map format. Records were derived from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ArboNET database, VectorMap, the published literature, and a survey of mosquito control agencies, university researchers, and state and local health departments. Between January 1995 and March 2016, 183 counties from 26 states and the District of Columbia reported occurrence of Ae. aegypti , and 1,241 counties from 40 states and the District of Columbia reported occurrence of Ae. albopictus . During the same time period, Ae. aegypti was collected in 3 or more years from 94 counties from 14 states and the District of Columbia, and Ae. albopictus was collected during 3 or more years from 514 counties in 34 states and the District of Columbia. Our findings underscore the need for systematic surveillance of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States and delineate areas with risk for the transmission of these introduced arboviruses.

Modeling the geographic distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the contiguous United States - Hahn, Micah B.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Eisen, Rebecca J. (Journal of Medical Entomology, 2016)
In addition to serving as vectors of several other human pathogens, the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, and western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, are the primary vectors of the spirochete ( Borrelia burgdorferi ) that causes Lyme disease, the most common vector-borne disease in the United States. Over the past two decades, the geographic range of I. pacificus has changed modestly while, in contrast, the I. scapularis range has expanded substantially, which likely contributes to the concurrent expansion in the distribution of human Lyme disease cases in the Northeastern, North-Central and Mid-Atlantic states. Identifying counties that contain suitable habitat for these ticks that have not yet reported established vector populations can aid in targeting limited vector surveillance resources to areas where tick invasion and potential human risk are likely to occur. We used county-level vector distribution information and ensemble modeling to map the potential distribution of I. scapularis and I. pacificus in the contiguous United States as a function of climate, elevation, and forest cover. Results show that I. pacificus is currently present within much of the range classified by our model as suitable for establishment. In contrast, environmental conditions are suitable for I. scapularis to continue expanding its range into northwestern Minnesota, central and northern Michigan, within the Ohio River Valley, and inland from the southeastern and Gulf coasts. Overall, our ensemble models show suitable habitat for I. scapularis in 441 eastern counties and for I. pacificus in 11 western counties where surveillance records have not yet supported classification of the counties as established.
10.1093/jme/tjw076

Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004–2012 - Hahn, Micah B.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Hayden, Mary H.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Delorey, Mark J.; Lindsey, Nicole P.; Nasci, Roger S.; Fischer, Marc (The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2015)
West Nile virus (WNV) is a leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Annual seasonal outbreaks vary in size and location. Predicting where and when higher than normal WNV transmission will occur can help direct limited public health resources. We developed models for the contiguous United States to identify meteorological anomalies associated with above average incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease from 2004 to 2012. We used county-level WNV data reported to ArboNET and meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. As a result of geographic differences in WNV transmission, we divided the United States into East and West, and 10 climate regions. Above average annual temperature was associated with increased likelihood of higher than normal WNV disease incidence, nationally and in most regions. Lower than average annual total precipitation was associated with higher disease incidence in the eastern United States, but the opposite was true in most western regions. Although multiple factors influence WNV transmission, these findings show that anomalies in temperature and precipitation are associated with above average WNV disease incidence. Readily accessible meteorological data may be used to develop predictive models to forecast geographic areas with elevated WNV disease risk before the coming season.

Effects of ocean acidification on temperate coastal marine ecosystems and fisheries in the Northeast Pacific - Haigh, Rowan; Ianson, Debby; Holt, Carrie A.; Neate, Holly E.; Edwards, Andrew M. (PLOS ONE, 2015)
As the oceans absorb anthropogenic CO2 they become more acidic, a problem termed ocean acidification (OA). Since this increase in CO2 is occurring rapidly, OA may have profound implications for marine ecosystems. In the temperate northeast Pacific, fisheries play key economic and cultural roles and provide significant employment, especially in rural areas. In British Columbia (BC), sport (recreational) fishing generates more income than commercial fishing (including the expanding aquaculture industry). Salmon (fished recreationally and farmed) and Pacific Halibut are responsible for the majority of fishery-related income. This region naturally has relatively acidic (low pH) waters due to ocean circulation, and so may be particularly vulnerable to OA. We have analyzed available data to provide a current description of the marine ecosystem, focusing on vertical distributions of commercially harvested groups in BC in the context of local carbon and pH conditions. We then evaluated the potential impact of OA on this temperate marine system using currently available studies. Our results highlight significant knowledge gaps. Above trophic levels 2–3 (where most local fishery-income is generated), little is known about the direct impact of OA, and more importantly about the combined impact of multi-stressors, like temperature, that are also changing as our climate changes. There is evidence that OA may have indirect negative impacts on finfish through changes at lower trophic levels and in habitats. In particular, OA may lead to increased fish-killing algal blooms that can affect the lucrative salmon aquaculture industry. On the other hand, some species of locally farmed shellfish have been well-studied and exhibit significant negative direct impacts associated with OA, especially at the larval stage. We summarize the direct and indirect impacts of OA on all groups of marine organisms in this region and provide conclusions, ordered by immediacy and certainty.

Mapping the decision points and climate information use of agricultural producers across the U.S. corn belt - Haigh, Tonya; Takle, Eugene; Andresen, Jeffrey; Widhalm, Melissa; Carlton, J. Stuart; Angel, Jim (Climate Risk Management, 2015)
Keywords: Decision calendar Maps Agriculture Climate tools

Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: Overview and implications for policy makers - Haines, Andy; McMichael, Anthony J.; Smith, Kirk R.; Roberts, Ian; Woodcock, James; Markandya, Anil; Armstrong, Ben G.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Dangour, Alan D.; Davies, Michael; Bruce, Nigel; Tonne, Cathryn; et al. (The Lancet, 2009)

Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate Normals stations - Hale, Robert C.; Gallo, Kevin P.; Owen, Timothy W.; Loveland, Thomas R. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2006)

Ch. 30: Sustained Assessment: A new vision for future U.S. assessments - Hall, John A.; Blair, Maria; Buizer, James L.; Gustafson, David I.; Holland, Brian; Moser, Susanne C.; Waple, Anne M. (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide - Hall, John A.; Gill, Stephen; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Sweet, William; Knuuti, Kevin; Marburger, John (U.S. Department of Defense, Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, 2016)

Reducing current and future risks: Using climate change scenarios to test an agricultural conservation framework - Hall, Kimberly R.; Herbert, Matthew E.; Sowa, Scott P.; Mysorekar, Sagar; Woznicki, Sean A.; Nejadhashemi, Pouyan A.; Wang, Lizhu (Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2017)
Keywords: Climate adaptation Climate change Great Lakes Fish Conservation outcomes Agricultural impacts Nutrient loading

Climate change and biodiversity in the Great Lakes Region from "fingerprints" of change to helping safeguard species - Hall, Kimberly R.; Root, Terry L. (Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Navigating an Uncertain Future, 2012)

North American tropical cyclone landfall and SST: A statistical model study - Hall, Timothy; Yonekura, Emmi (Journal of Climate, 2013)
A statistical–stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea surface temperature (SST): 1) SST averaged over the NA subtropics and the hurricane season and 2) this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropical mean SST (termed relSST). Here, the authors focus on SST by holding ENSO to a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test the significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, primarily due to a basinwide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annual major hurricane landfall probability on Texas from −2 to +2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation.
Keywords: Hurricanes/typhoons,Stochastic models,Risk assessment

Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change - Hallegatte, Stéphane (Global Environmental Change, 2009)
Keywords: Climate change Adaptation Uncertainty

Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty - Hallegatte, Stephane; Bangalore, Mook; Bonzanigo, Laura; Fay, Marianne; Kane, Tamaro; Narloch, Ulf; Rozenberg, Julie; Treguer, David; Vogt-Schilb, Adrie (World Bank, 2016)
ISBN 978-1-4648-0673-5

Investment Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: Application to Climate Change - Hallegatte, Stéphane; Shah, Ankur; Lempert, Robert; Brown, Casey; Gill, Stuart (World Bank, 2012)

Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters - Hallegatte, Stephane; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Bangalore, Mook; Rozenberg, Julie (Climate Change and Development, 2017)
ISBN: 978-1-4648-1003-9

Environmental impact of dietary change: A systematic review - Hallström, E.; Carlsson-Kanyama, A.; Börjesson, P. (Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015)
Keywords: Review LCA Diet Scenario Climate Land use

A healthier US diet could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from both the food and health care systems - Hallström, Elinor; Gee, Quentin; Scarborough, Peter; Cleveland, David A. (Climatic Change, 2017)
The standard US diet contributes to greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) from both the food system, and from the health system through its contribution to non-communicable diseases. To estimate the potential for diet change to reduce GHGE and improve public health, we analyzed the effect of adopting healthier model diets in the USA on the risk of disease, health care costs, and GHGE. We found that adoption of healthier diets reduced the relative risk of coronary heart disease, colorectal cancer, and type 2 diabetes by 20–45%, US health care costs by US$B 77–93 per year, and direct GHGE by 222–826 kg CO2e capita−1 year−1 (69–84 kg from the health care system, 153–742 kg from the food system). Emission reductions were equivalent to 6–23% of the US Climate Action Plan’s target of a 17% reduction in 2005 GHGE by 2020, and 24–134% of California’s target of 1990 GHGE levels by 2020. However, there is potential for investment of health care savings to result in rebound up to and greater than 100%, which would increase net GHGE. Given the urgency of improving public health and of mitigating GHGE over the short term, the potential contribution of diet change, and the options for reducing rebound, deserve more research in support of policy.

Developing and implementing climate change adaptation options in forest ecosystems: A case study in southwestern Oregon, USA - Halofsky, Jessica; Peterson, David; Metlen, Kerry; Myer, M.; Sample, V. (Forests, 2016)

Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach - Halofsky, Jessica E.; Hemstrom, Miles A.; Conklin, David R.; Halofsky, Joshua S.; Kerns, Becky K.; Bachelet, Dominique (Ecological Modelling, 2013)

Climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options for forest vegetation management in the northwestern USA - Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L. (Atmosphere, 2016)

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Blue Mountains - Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L. (USDA, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 2017)

Climate Change Adaptation in United States Federal Natural Resource Science and Management Agencies: A Synthesis - Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; Marcinkowski, Kailey W. (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2015)

Assessing vulnerabilities and adapting to climate change in northwestern U.S. forests - Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; Prendeville, Holly R. (Climatic Change, 2018)
Multiple climate change vulnerability assessments in the Pacific Northwest region of the USA provide the scientific information needed to begin adaptation in forested landscapes. Adaptation options developed by resource managers in conjunction with these assessments, newly summarized in the Climate Change Adaptation Library of the Western United States, provide an extensive choice of peer-reviewed climate-smart management strategies and tactics. More adaptation options are available for vegetation than for any other resource category, allowing vegetation management to be applied across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Good progress has been made in strategic development and planning for climate change adaptation in the Northwest, although on-the-ground implementation is in the early stages. However, recent regulatory mandates plus the increasing occurrence of extreme events (drought, wildfires, insect outbreaks) provide motivation to accelerate the adaptation process in planning and management on federal lands and beyond. Timely implementation of adaptation and collaboration across boundaries will help ensure the functionality of Northwest forests at broad spatial scales in a warmer climate.

Hurricane Sandy: The science and impacts of a superstorm - Halverson, Jeffrey B.; Rabenhorst, Thomas (Weatherwise, 2013)

International approaches to climate change and cultural heritage - Hambrecht, George; Rockman, Marcy (American Antiquity, 2017)
Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening cultural heritage; cultural resource managers, communities, and archaeologists are confronting this reality. Yet the phenomenon is happening over such a wide range of physical and sociocultural contexts that it is a problem too big for any one organization or discipline to tackle. Therefore, the sharing of best practices and examples between the communities dealing with this problem is essential. This article presents examples from communities, cultural resource managers, and archaeologists who are engaging with climate change–based threats to cultural heritage. Our presentation of these international activities follows the US National Park Service (NPS) four-pillar approach to climate-change threats to cultural heritage: science, mitigation, adaptation, and communication. We discuss this approach and then present a number of cases in which communities or institutions are attempting to manage cultural heritage threatened by climate change through these four pillars. This article restricts itself to examples that are taking place outside of the USA and concludes with some general recommendations for both archaeologists and funding entities.

Effects of urbanization and climate change on surface runoff of the Brussels Capital Region: A case study using an urban soil–vegetation–atmosphere‐transfer model - Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet; Baguis, Pierre (International Journal of Climatology, 2011)
This study describes the use of a state‐of‐the‐art urban parameterization (the Town Energy Balance scheme, TEB) to examine how the surface runoff of the Brussels Capital Region (BCR) responded to historical urbanization (1960–1999) and how it will respond in cases of climate changes and/or future urbanization. Key for this study is that both energy and water balances are resolved and interact through the evaporative term. Historical urbanization of BCR is estimated from changes in impervious surface area using remote sensing imagery and future climate is modelled using data from two members of the European project PRUDENCE. Results show that (1) a change could be detected in the annual series of cumulative surface runoff, high flow and the frequency of flood events when imperviousness exceeds 35%. (2) Climate change has a greater impact on low flows than urbanization. (3) In terms of high flow and annual cumulative runoff, historical urbanization and the precipitation increase scenario have approximately the same increasing trend. However, during summertime when floods happen frequently in the BCR, the average contribution of urbanization is four times greater than that due to the increase in precipitation in terms of the cumulative runoff ratio. (4) The assumed 10% increase in imperviousness in the BCR is able to counteract the increase in evapotranspiration due to warmer climate predictions. (5) When combining the effect of future urbanization (+20% of imperviousness) and precipitation scenario together, the increase in high flow is exacerbated. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Increased diversity of zoonotic pathogens and Borrelia burgdorferi strains in established versus incipient Ixodes scapularis populations across the Midwestern United States - Hamer, Sarah A.; Hickling, Graham J.; Walker, Edward D.; Tsao, Jean I. (Infection, Genetics and Evolution, 2014)
Keywords: American Midwest

An Arctic predator–prey system in flux: Climate change impacts on coastal space use by polar bears and ringed seals - Hamilton, Charmain D.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Ims, Rolf A.; Aars, Jon; Lydersen, Christian (Journal of Animal Ecology, 2017)
Keywords: prey-shifting Pusa hispida sea-ice declines spatial overlap Svalbard Ursus maritimus

Climate, fishery and society interactions: Observations from the North Atlantic - Hamilton, Lawrence C. (Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2007)
Keywords: Fisheries Social science Human dimensions Collapse Climate

Ski areas, weather and climate: Time series models for New England case studies - Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Brown, Cliff; Keim, Barry D. (International Journal of Climatology, 2007)
Wintertime warming trends experienced in recent decades, and predicted to increase in the future, present serious challenges for ski areas and whole regions that depend on winter tourism. Most research on this topic examines past or future climate-change impacts at yearly to decadal resolution, to obtain a perspective on climate-change impacts. We focus instead on local-scale impacts of climate variability, using detailed daily data from two individual ski areas. Our analysis fits ARMAX (autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables) time series models that predict day-to-day variations in skier attendance from a combination of mountain and urban weather, snow cover and cyclical factors. They explain half to two-thirds of the variation in these highly erratic series, with no residual autocorrelation. Substantively, model results confirm the “backyard hypothesis” that urban snow conditions significantly affect skier activity; quantify these effects alongside those of mountain snow and weather; show that previous-day conditions provide a practical time window; find no monthly effects net of weather; and underline the importance of a handful of high-attendance days in making or breaking the season. Viewed in the larger context of climate change, our findings suggest caution regarding the efficacy of artificial snowmaking as an adaptive strategy, and of smoothed yearly summaries to characterize the timing-sensitive impacts of weather (and hence, high-variance climate change) on skier activity. These results elaborate conclusions from our previous annual-level analysis. More broadly, they illustrate the potential for using ARMAX models to conduct integrated, dynamic analysis across environmental and social domains. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian arctic archipelago - Hamilton, Stephen G.; Castro de la Guardia, Laura; Derocher, Andrew E.; Sahanatien, Vicki; Tremblay, Bruno; Huard, David (PLOS ONE, 2014)
Background Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 – 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling. Principal Findings Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2–5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands. Conclusions/Significance Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

Barriers to municipal climate adaptation: Examples from coastal Massachusetts’ smaller cities and towns - Hamin, Elisabeth M.; Gurran, Nicole; Emlinger, Ana Mesquita (Journal of the American Planning Association, 2014)

Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest region of North America - Hamlet, A.F. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2011)

An overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios project: Approach, methods, and summary of key results - Hamlet, Alan F.; Elsner, Marketa McGuire; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Tohver, Ingrid; Norheim, Robert A. (Atmosphere-Ocean, 2013)

Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western United States - Hamlet, Alan F.; Mote, Philip W.; Clark, Martyn P.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (Journal of Climate, 2005)

An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level - Hamlington, B. D.; Cheon, S. H.; Thompson, P. R.; Merrifield, M. A.; Nerem, R. S.; Leben, R. R.; Kim, K. Y. (Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 2016)
Keywords: Pacific sea level ENSO PDO 1641 Sea level change 4215 Climate and interannual variability

Crop, tillage, and landscape effects on near-surface soil quality indices in Indiana - Hammac, W. Ashley; Stott, Diane E.; Karlen, Douglas L.; Cambardella, Cynthia A. (Soil Science Society of America Journal, 2016)

FEMA finalizes new requirement for state disaster plans to consider climate change impacts - Hammer, Becky (NRDC Expert Blog, 2015)

Combined Heat and Power: Enabling Resilient Energy Infrastructure for Critical Facilities - Hampson, Anne; Bourgeois, Tom; Dillingham, Gavin; Panzarella, Isaac (ICF International, 2013)

Soil compaction in cropping systems: A review of the nature, causes and possible solutions - Hamza, M. A.; Anderson, W. K. (Soil and Tillage Research, 2005)
Keywords: Soil compaction Deep ripping Axle load Gypsum controlled traffic No-tillage Animal grazing Plant roots

Urban impacts on precipitation - Han, Ji-Young; Baik, Jong-Jin; Lee, Hyunho (Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014)
Weather and climate changes caused by human activities (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and urbanization) have received much attention because of their impacts on human lives as well as scientific interests. The detection, understanding, and future projection of weather and climate changes due to urbanization are important subjects in the discipline of urban meteorology and climatology. This article reviews urban impacts on precipitation. Observational studies of changes in convective phenomena over and around cities are reviewed, with focus on precipitation enhancement downwind of cities. The proposed causative factors (urban heat island, large surface roughness, and higher aerosol concentration) and mechanisms of urban-induced and/or urban-modified precipitation are then reviewed and discussed, with focus on downwind precipitation enhancement. A universal mechanism of urban-induced precipitation is made through a thorough literature review and is as follows. The urban heat island produces updrafts on the leeward or downwind side of cities, and the urban heat island-induced updrafts initiate moist convection under favorable thermodynamic conditions, thus leading to surface precipitation. Surface precipitation is likely to further increase under higher aerosol concentrations if the air humidity is high and deep and strong convection occurs. It is not likely that larger urban surface roughness plays a major role in urbaninduced precipitation. Larger urban surface roughness can, however, disrupt or bifurcate precipitating convective systems formed outside cities while passing over the cities. Such urban-modified precipitating systems can either increase or decrease precipitation over and/or downwind of cities. Much effort is needed for in-depth or new understanding of urban precipitation anomalies, which includes local and regional modeling studies using advanced numerical models and analysis studies of long-term radar data.

What If California's Drought Continues? - Hanak, Ellen; Mount, Jeffrey; Chappelle, Caitrin; Lund, Jay; Medellín-Azuara, Josué; Myoyle, Peter; Seavy, Nathaniel E. (Public Policy Institute of California, 2015)

Minnesota Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project - Handler, Stephen; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Iverson, Louis; Peters, Emily; Scheller, Robert M.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Brandt, Leslie; Butler, Patricia; Janowiak, Maria; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Chris; Barrett, Kelly; et al. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 2014)

Michigan Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project - Handler, Stephen; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Iverson, Louis; Peters, Emily; Scheller, Robert M.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Brandt, Leslie; Butler, Patricia; Janowiak, Maria; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Chris; Eagle, Amy Clark; et al. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 2014)

Fine-grain modeling of species’ response to climate change: Holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia - Hannah, Lee; Flint, Lorraine; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Moritz, Max A.; Buckley, Lauren B.; McCullough, Ian M. (Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2014)
Keywords: holdout stepping-stone microrefugia climate change range shift conservation

Connecting past and present climate variability to the water levels of Lakes Michigan and Huron - Hanrahan, Janel L.; Kravtsov, Sergey V.; Roebber, Paul J. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2010)
Keywords: Great Lakes water levels climate variability 1616 Climate variability 1630 Impacts of global change 1807 Climate impacts 1803 Anthropogenic effects 9345 Geographic Location: Large bodies of water (e.g., lakes and inland seas)

Insights from the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem on assessing success in sustaining wildlands - Hansen, Andrew J.; Phillips, Linda B. (Climate Change in Wildlands: Pioneering Approaches to Science and Management, 2016)
An overarching question in natural resource management is, “How well are we sustaining entire ecosystems under climate and land use change?” The chapters of this book have dealt with understanding and managing landforms, tree species, and fish and vegetation communities in the face of changing climate. Application of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework is typically in the context of species, communities, or ecological processes deemed to be the most vulnerable to climate change. The effectiveness of adaptation options for vulnerable elements can be evaluated through adaptive management in which multiple treatments are implemented, monitored, and compared (chap. 13).

Designing Markets for Habitat Conservation: Lessons Learned from Agricultural Markets Research - Hansen, Kristiana; Bastian, Christopher T.; Nagler, Amy; Jones Ritten, Chian (University of Wyoming Extension, 2017)

Development of a Market-Based Conservation Program in the Upper Green River Basin of Wyoming: Feasibility Study - Hansen, Kristi; Purcell, Melanie; Paige, Ginger; MacKinnon, Anne; Lamb, Jen; Coupal, Roger (University of Wyoming Extension, 2015)

High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change - Hansen, M. C.; Potapov, P. V.; Moore, R.; Hancher, M.; Turubanova, S. A.; Tyukavina, A.; Thau, D.; Stehman, S. V.; Goetz, S. J.; Loveland, T. R.; Kommareddy, A.; Egorov, A.; et al. (Science, 2013)
Forests worldwide are in a state of flux, with accelerating losses in some regions and gains in others. Hansen et al. (p. 850) examined global Landsat data at a 30-meter spatial resolution to characterize forest extent, loss, and gain from 2000 to 2012. Globally, 2.3 million square kilometers of forest were lost during the 12-year study period and 0.8 million square kilometers of new forest were gained. The tropics exhibited both the greatest losses and the greatest gains (through regrowth and plantation), with losses outstripping gains. Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil’s well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

Population ecology of the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) as an invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and an imperiled species in Europe - Hansen, Michael J.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Slade, Jeffrey W.; Steeves, Todd B.; Almeida, Pedro R.; Quintella, Bernardo R. (Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 2016)
The sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus (Linnaeus) is both an invasive non-native species in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America and an imperiled species in much of its native range in North America and Europe. To compare and contrast how understanding of population ecology is useful for control programs in the Great Lakes and restoration programs in Europe, we review current understanding of the population ecology of the sea lamprey in its native and introduced range. Some attributes of sea lamprey population ecology are particularly useful for both control programs in the Great Lakes and restoration programs in the native range. First, traps within fish ladders are beneficial for removing sea lampreys in Great Lakes streams and passing sea lampreys in the native range. Second, attractants and repellants are suitable for luring sea lampreys into traps for control in the Great Lakes and guiding sea lamprey passage for conservation in the native range. Third, assessment methods used for targeting sea lamprey control in the Great Lakes are useful for targeting habitat protection in the native range. Last, assessment methods used to quantify numbers of all life stages of sea lampreys would be appropriate for measuring success of control in the Great Lakes and success of conservation in the native range.

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Wildland fire detection and burned area in the United States - Hao, Wei Min; Larkin, Narasimhan K (Forest Ecology and Management, 2014)

Changes in concurrent monthly precipitation and temperature extremes - Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J. (Environmental Research Letters, 2013)
While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. The joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes. The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. However, the results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.

National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts - Hapke, Cheryl J.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; List, Jeffrey H.; Thieler, E. Robert (U.S. Geological Survey, 2011)

California drought increases CO2 footprint of energy - Hardin, E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Qomi, M. J. A.; Madani, K.; Tarroja, B.; Zhou, Y.; Yang, T.; Samuelsen, S. (Sustainable Cities and Society, 2017)
Keywords: CO emissions Drought Energy Footprint

Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models - Harding, Keith J.; Snyder, Peter K.; Liess, Stefan (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2013)
Keywords: dynamical downscaling CMIP5 Great Plains WRF extreme rainfall events model evaluation 0550 Model verification and validation 1626 Global climate models 1817 Extreme events 1854 Precipitation 3355 Regional modeling

Occupational heat-related illness emergency department visits and inpatient hospitalizations in the southeast region, 2007–2011 - Harduar Morano, L.; Bunn, T. L.; Lackovic, M.; Lavender, A.; Dang, G. T. T.; Chalmers, J. J.; Li, Y.; Zhang, L.; Flammia, D. D. (American Journal of Industrial Medicine, 2015)
Keywords: heat occupational southeast hospitalization emergency department

A comprehensive evaluation of the burden of heat-related illness and death within the Florida population - Harduar Morano, Laurel; Watkins, Sharon; Kintziger, Kristina (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2016)

Social Vulnerability: Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change, Part 1 - Hardy, Dean; Lazrus, Heather; Mendez, Michael; Orlove, Ben; Rivera-Collazo, Isabel; Roberts, J. Timmons; Rockman, Marcy; Thomas, Kimberley; Warner, Benjamin P.; Winthrop, Robert (USGCRP, 2018)

The future of fisheries oceanography lies in the pursuit of multiple hypotheses - Hare, Jonathan A. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2014)
Fisheries oceanography is largely an applied discipline with a major goal of improving fisheries management and marine conservation. Johan Hjort's critical period hypothesis, and its decedents, remain a dominant theme and focuses on year-class success as mediated by prey availability and feeding. Bottom-up forcing, a related hypothesis, focuses on the sequential transfer of energy through the pelagic foodweb from primary productivity to fishery productivity. Another approach assumes that trophic interactions of adults determine abundance. Fisheries assessment and management, however, is based on the hypothesis that fishery abundance is determined by time-varying fishing and year-class success related to spawning-stock biomass. These approaches, their basic hypotheses, and underlying processes and mechanisms suggest very different dynamics for fishery populations. Other hypotheses challenge these traditional views: predation of early life stages, parental condition, shifting migration pathways, and physiological limits. Support for these other hypotheses is reviewed and the research needs are described to apply these hypotheses to fisheries assessment and management. Some of these hypotheses were identified by Hjort (e.g. parental condition hypothesis) and others are relative new (e.g. early life stage predation hypothesis). Moving into the future, we should focus on Hjort's approach: multi-hypothesis, integrative, and interdisciplinary. A range of hypotheses should be pursued with an emphasis on comparing and linking multiple hypotheses. The results then must be incorporated into fishery assessments and management decisions to support the long-term sustainability of exploited species and the conservation of threatened and endangered species.
10.1093/icesjms/fsu018

Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate–population model - Hare, Jonathan A.; Alexander, Michael A.; Fogarty, Michael J.; Williams, Erik H.; Scott, James D. (Ecological Applications, 2010)
Keywords: abundance Atlantic croaker climate change distribution East Coast USA environmental effects fishery management Micropogonias undulatus population dynamics

Northeast Regional Action Plan: NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy - Hare, Jonathan A.; Borggaard, Diane L.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Anderson, Jennifer; Burns, Peter; Chu, Kevin; Clay, Patricia M.; Collins, Mathias J.; Cooper, Peter; Fratantoni, Paula S.; Johnson, Michael R.; Manderson, John P.; et al. (NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, 2016)

A vulnerability assessment of fish and invertebrates to climate change on the northeast U.S. continental shelf - Hare, Jonathan A.; Morrison, Wendy E.; Nelson, Mark W.; Stachura, Megan M.; Teeters, Eric J.; Griffis, Roger B.; Alexander, Michael A.; Scott, James D.; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J.; Chute, Antonie S.; Curti, Kiersten L.; et al. (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.

Consequences of climatic change for water temperature and brown trout populations in Alpine rivers and streams - Hari, Renata E.; Livingstone, David M.; Siber, Rosi; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia; GÜTtinger, Herbert (Global Change Biology, 2006)
Keywords: Alpine rivers and streams altitude dependence brown trout climatic change habitat shift optimum temperature Proliferative Kidney Disease regional coherence sinusoidal regression water temperature

Ice mass loss in Greenland, the Gulf of Alaska, and the Canadian Archipelago: Seasonal cycles and decadal trends - Harig, Christopher; Simons, Frederik J. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: time-variable gravity climate Greenland Alaska ice sheets seasonality 0720 Glaciers 1217 Time variable gravity 1218 Mass balance 1240 Satellite geodesy: results

Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress - Harlan, S.L.; Brazel, A.J.; Prashad, L.; Stefanov, W.L.; Larsen, L. (Social Science & Medicine, 2006)

Neighborhood effects on heat deaths: Social and environmental predictors of vulnerability in Maricopa County, Arizona - Harlan, Sharon L.; Declet-Barreto, Juan H.; Stefanov, William L.; Petitti, Diana B. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2013)
BACKGROUND: Most heat-related deaths occur in cities, and future trends in global climate change and urbanization may amplify this trend. Understanding how neighborhoods affect heat mortality fills an important gap between studies of individual susceptibility to heat and broadly comparative studies of temperature-mortality relationships in cities. OBJECTIVES: We estimated neighborhood effects of population characteristics and built and natural environments on deaths due to heat exposure in Maricopa County, Arizona (2000-2008). METHODS: We used 2000 U.S. Census data and remotely sensed vegetation and land surface temperature to construct indicators of neighborhood vulnerability and a geographic information system to map vulnerability and residential addresses of persons who died from heat exposure in 2,081 census block groups. Binary logistic regression and spatial analysis were used to associate deaths with neighborhoods. RESULTS: Neighborhood scores on three factors-socioeconomic vulnerability, elderly/isolation, and unvegetated area-varied widely throughout the study area. The preferred model (based on fit and parsimony) for predicting the odds of one or more deaths from heat exposure within a census block group included the first two factors and surface temperature in residential neighborhoods, holding population size constant. Spatial analysis identified clusters of neighborhoods with the highest heat vulnerability scores. A large proportion of deaths occurred among people, including homeless persons, who lived in the inner cores of the largest cities and along an industrial corridor. CONCLUSIONS: Place-based indicators of vulnerability complement analyses of person-level heat risk factors. Surface temperature might be used in Maricopa County to identify the most heat-vulnerable neighborhoods, but more attention to the socioecological complexities of climate adaptation is needed.
Harlan, Sharon L Declet-Barreto, Juan H Stefanov, William L Petitti, Diana B Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. United States Environ Health Perspect. 2013 Feb;121(2):197-204. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1104625. Epub 2012 Nov 15.
Keywords: Arizona/epidemiology Female Geographic Information Systems Heat Stress Disorders/ mortality Humans Male Residence Characteristics Risk Factors Socioeconomic Factors

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems - Harley, Christopher D. G.; Randall Hughes, A.; Hultgren, Kristin M.; Miner, Benjamin G.; Sorte, Cascade J. B.; Thornber, Carol S.; Rodriguez, Laura F.; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L. (Ecology Letters, 2006)
Keywords: Anthropogenic climate change carbon dioxide (CO2) coastal oceanography community structure distributional shifts marine ecosystems ocean pH population dynamics synergistic effects temperature

Satellite sub-pixel rainfall variability - Harmsen, Eric W.; Mesa, Santa Elizabeth Gomez; Cabassa, Edvier; Ramírez-Beltran, Nazario D.; Pol, Sandra Cruz; Kuligowski, Robert J.; Vasquez, Ramón (WSEAS Transaction on Signal Processing, 2008)

Seasonal climate change impacts on evapotranspiration, precipitation deficit and crop yield in Puerto Rico - Harmsen, Eric W.; Miller, Norman L.; Schlegel, Nicole J.; Gonzalez, J. E. (Agricultural Water Management, 2009)
Keywords: Climate change Evapotranspiration Precipitation Precipitation deficit Crop yield Downscaling GCM

Climate-sensitive health priorities in Nunatsiavut, Canada - Harper, Sherilee L.; Edge, Victoria L.; Ford, James; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Wood, Michele; McEwen, Scott A. (BMC Public Health, 2015)
This exploratory study used participatory methods to identify, characterize, and rank climate-sensitive health priorities in Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada.

Changes in snowpack accumulation and ablation in the intermountain west - Harpold, Adrian; Brooks, Paul; Rajagopal, Seshadri; Heidbuchel, Ingo; Jardine, Angela; Stielstra, Clare (Water Resources Research, 2012)
Keywords: climate change snowpack sublimation water resources 0736 Snow 1807 Climate impacts 1863 Snow and ice 1880 Water management

Humidity determines snowpack ablation under a warming climate - Harpold, Adrian A.; Brooks, Paul D. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018)
Changes in the amount and timing of snowmelt have large effects on water for society and ecosystems. Using long-term records from across the western United States, we demonstrate that atmospheric humidity is a major control on how seasonal snow responds to warming temperatures. Specifically, we observe an increase in the frequency and magnitude of episodic winter melt events under higher humidity that may alter the timing of water availability. In lower-humidity regions, however, warming is associated with increased sublimation and/or evaporation from the snowpack further reducing the amount of available water in these dry regions. Management approaches to address these changes in snowmelt water resources from continued warming will require improved estimation of variable and changing atmospheric humidity.Climate change is altering historical patterns of snow accumulation and melt, threatening societal frameworks for water supply. However, decreases in spring snow water equivalent (SWE) and changes in snowmelt are not ubiquitous despite widespread warming in the western United States, highlighting the importance of latent and radiant energy fluxes in snow ablation. Here we demonstrate how atmospheric humidity and solar radiation interact with warming temperature to control snowpack ablation at 462 sites spanning a gradient in mean winter temperature from −8.9 to +2.9 °C. The most widespread response to warming was an increase in episodic, midwinter ablation events. Under humid conditions these ablation events were dominated by melt, averaging 21% (202 mm/year) of SWE. Winter ablation under dry atmospheric conditions at similar temperatures was smaller, averaging 12% (58 mm/year) of SWE and likely dominated by sublimation fluxes. These contrasting patterns result from the critical role that atmospheric humidity plays in local energy balance, with latent and longwave radiant fluxes cooling the snowpack under dry conditions and warming it under humid conditions. Similarly, spring melt rates were faster under humid conditions, yet the second most common trend was a reduction in spring melt rates associated with earlier initiation when solar radiation inputs are smaller. Our analyses demonstrate that regional differences in atmospheric humidity are a major cause of the spatial variability in snowpack response to warming. Better constraints on humidity will be critical to predicting both the amount and timing of surface water supplies under climate change.

Defining snow drought and why it matters - Harpold, Adrian A.; Dettinger, Michael; Rajagopal, Seshadri (Eos, 2017)

A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change - Harrigan, Ryan J.; Thomassen, Henri A.; Buermann, Wolfgang; Smith, Thomas B. (Global Change Biology, 2014)
Ch4

Aragonite saturation state dynamics in a coastal upwelling zone - Harris, Katherine E.; DeGrandpre, Michael D.; Hales, Burke (Geophysical Research Letters, 2013)
Keywords: aragonite saturation states coastal upwelling Oregon coast biogeochemical processes

Stroke in American Indians and Alaska Natives: A systematic review - Harris, Raymond; Nelson, Lonnie A.; Muller, Clemma; Buchwald, Dedra (American Journal of Public Health, 2015)
We conducted a systematic review of published studies on stroke epidemiology in American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs). We used MeSH terms and strict inclusion criteria to search PubMed, identifying a relevant sample of 57 refereed publications. We report a consensus view in which prevalent stroke is more common, and estimates of cerebrovascular risk factors are higher, among AI/ANs than among other US populations. Like other minority groups, AI/ANs suffer stroke at younger ages than do non-Hispanic Whites. However, data on AI/AN stroke mortality are significantly compromised by racial misclassification and nonrepresentative sampling. Studies correcting for these problems have found that stroke mortality rates among AI/ANs are among the highest of all US racial and ethnic groups. As with Black and non-Hispanic White stroke mortality, AI/AN stroke mortality varies by geographic region, with the highest rates in Alaska and the Northwest and the lowest in the Southwest. Our results underscore the need for a concerted national effort to collect accurate cross-sectional and longitudinal data on stroke in AI/ANs.

“Because you got to have heat”: The networked assemblage of energy poverty in eastern North Carolina - Harrison, Conor; Popke, Jeff (Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2011)

Linkages between biodiversity attributes and ecosystem services: A systematic review - Harrison, P. A.; Berry, P. M.; Simpson, G.; Haslett, J. R.; Blicharska, M.; Bucur, M.; Dunford, R.; Egoh, B.; Garcia-Llorente, M.; Geamănă, N.; Geertsema, W.; Lommelen, E.; et al. (Ecosystem Services, 2014)
Keywords: Biodiversity Ecosystem service Attribute Trait Ecosystem function Network analysis

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions - Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)
Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

Fire in the Earth system - Harrison, Sandy P; Marlon, Jennifer R; Bartlein, Patrick J (Changing Climates, Earth Systems and Society, 2010)

Summer and winter drought drive the initiation and spread of spruce beetle outbreak - Hart, Sarah J.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Schneider, Dominik; Molotch, Noah P. (Ecology, 2017)
This study used Landsat-based detection of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak over the years 2000–2014 across the Southern Rocky Mountain Ecoregion to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of outbreak and assess the influence of temperature, drought, forest characteristics, and previous spruce beetle activity on outbreak development. During the 1999–2013 period, time series of spruce beetle activity were highly spatially correlated (r > 0.5) at distances <5 km, but remained weakly correlated (r = 0.08) at distances >400 km. Furthermore, cluster analysis on time series of outbreak activity revealed the outbreak developed at multiple incipient locations and spread to unaffected forest, highlighting the importance of both local-scale dispersal and regional-scale drivers in synchronizing spruce beetle outbreak. Spatial overlay analysis and Random Forest modeling of outbreak development show that outbreaks initiate in areas characterized by summer, winter, and multi-year drought and that outbreak spread is strongly linked to the proximity and extent of nearby outbreak, but remains associated with drought. Notably, we find that spruce beetle outbreak is associated with low peak snow water equivalent, not just summer drought. As such, future alterations to both winter and summer precipitation regimes are likely to drive important changes in subalpine forests.

Urban Decline in Rust-Belt Cities - Hartley, Daniel (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2013)
Keywords: added by ERG

The significance of the 1976 Pacific climate shift in the climatology of Alaska - Hartmann, Brian; Wendler, Gerd (Journal of Climate, 2005)
The 1976 Pacific climate shift is examined, and its manifestations and significance in Alaskan climatology during the last half-century are demonstrated. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation index shifted in 1976 from dominantly negative values for the 25-yr time period 1951–75 to dominantly positive values for the period 1977–2001. Mean annual and seasonal temperatures for the positive phase were up to 3.1°C higher than for the negative phase. Likewise, mean cloudiness, wind speeds, and precipitation amounts increased, while mean sea level pressure and geopotential heights decreased. The pressure decrease resulted in a deepening of the Aleutian low in winter and spring. The intensification of the Aleutian low increased the advection of relatively warm and moist air to Alaska and storminess over the state during winter and spring. The regime shift is also examined for its effect on the long-term temperature trends throughout the state. The trends that have shown climatic warming are strongly biased by the sudden shift in 1976 from the cooler regime to a warmer regime. When analyzing the total time period from 1951 to 2001, warming is observed; however, the 25-yr period trend analyses before 1976 (1951–75) and thereafter (1977–2001) both display cooling, with a few exceptions. In this paper, emphasis is placed on the importance of taking into account the sudden changes that result from abrupt climatic shifts, persistent regimes, and the possibility of cyclic oscillations, such as the PDO, in the analysis of long-term climate change in Alaska.

Observations: Atmosphere and surface - Hartmann, D.L.; Klein Tank, A.M.G.; Rusticucci, M.; Alexander, L.V.; Brönnimann, S.; Charabi, Y.; Dentener, F.J.; Dlugokencky, E.J.; Easterling, D.R.; Kaplan, A.; Soden, B.J.; Thorne, P.W.; et al. (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

Substituting beans for beef as a contribution toward US climate change targets - Harwatt, Helen; Sabaté, Joan; Eshel, Gidon; Soret, Sam; Ripple, William (Climatic Change, 2017)
Shifting dietary patterns for environmental benefits has long been advocated. In relation to mitigating climate change, the debate has been more recent, with a growing interest from policy makers, academics, and society. Many researchers have highlighted the need for changes to food consumption in order to achieve the required greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions. So far, food consumption has not been anchored in climate change policy to the same extent as energy production and usage, nor has it been considered within the context of achieving GHG targets to a level where tangible outputs are available. Here, we address those issues by performing a relatively simple analysis that considers the extent to which one food exchange could contribute to achieving GHG reduction targets in the United States (US). We use the targeted reduction for 2020 as a reference and apply published Life Cycle Assessment data on GHG emissions to beans and beef consumed in the US. We calculate the difference in GHGs resulting from the replacement of beef with beans in terms of both calories and protein. Our results demonstrate that substituting one food for another, beans for beef, could achieve approximately 46 to 74% of the reductions needed to meet the 2020 GHG target for the US. In turn, this shift would free up 42% of US cropland (692,918 km2). While not currently recognized as a climate policy option, the “beans for beef” scenario offers significant climate change mitigation and other environmental benefits, illustrating the high potential of animal to plant food shifts.

Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment - Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yokohata, Tokuta; Masui, Toshihiko (Climatic Change, 2016)
This study quantified the impacts of climate change on human health through undernourishment using two economic measures. First, changes in morbidity and mortality due to nine diseases caused by being underweight as a child were analyzed using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with changes in the labor force, population, and demands for healthcare taken into consideration. Second, changes in mortality were taken from the CGE simulation and assessed economically by the value of lives lost and willingness to pay to reduce the risk. Model uncertainties in future crop yields and climate conditions were considered using future projections from six global crop models and five global climate models. We found that the economic valuation of healthy lives lost due to undernourishment under climate change was equivalent to −0.4 % to 0.0 % of global gross domestic product (GDP) and was regionally heterogeneous, ranging from −4.0 % to 0.0 % of regional GDP in 2100. In contrast, the actual economic losses associated with the effects of additional health expenditure and the decrease in the labor force due to undernourishment resulting from climate change corresponded to a − 0.1 % to 0.0 % change in GDP and a − 0.2 % to 0.0 % change in household consumption, respectively, at the global level.

USDA Midwest and Northern Forests Regional Climate Hub: Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies - Hatfield, Jerry; Swanston, Christopher; Janowiak, Maria; Steele, Rachel F.; Hempel, Jon; Bochicchio, Juliet; Hall, Wendy; Cole, Marlene; Hestvik, Sharon; Whitaker, John (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2015)

Ch. 6: Agriculture - Hatfield, Jerry; Takle, Gene; Grotjahn, Richard; Holden, Patrick; Izaurralde, R. Cesar; Mader, Terry; Marshall, Elizabeth; Liverman, Diana (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production - Hatfield, J. L.; Boote, K. J.; Kimball, B. A.; Ziska, L. H.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Ort, D.; Thomson, A. M.; Wolfe, D. (Agronomy Journal, 2011)
Changes in temperature, CO(2), and precipitation under the scenarios of climate change for the next 30 yr present a challenge to crop production. This review focuses on the impact of temperature, CO(2), and ozone on agronomic crops and the implications for crop production. Understanding these implications for agricultural crops is critical for developing cropping systems resilient to stresses induced by climate change. There is variation among crops in their response to CO(2), temperature, and precipitation changes and, with the regional differences in predicted climate, a situation is created in which the responses will be further complicated. For example, the temperature effects on soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] could potentially cause yield reductions of 2.4% in the South but an increase of 1.7% in the Midwest. The frequency of years when temperatures exceed thresholds for damage during critical growth stages is likely to increase for some crops and regions. The increase in CO(2) contributes significantly to enhanced plant growth and improved water use efficiency (WUE); however, there may be a downscaling of these positive impacts due to higher temperatures plants will experience during their growth cycle. A challenge is to understand the interactions of the changing climatic parameters because of the interactions among temperature, CO(2), and precipitation on plant growth and development and also on the biotic stresses of weeds, insects, and diseases. Agronomists will have to consider the variations in temperature and precipitation as part of the production system if they are to ensure the food security required by an ever increasing population.
Keywords: air co2 enrichment; atmospheric carbon-dioxide; water-use efficiency; phaseolus-vulgaris l.; solanum-tuberosum l.; rottboellia-cochinchinensis interference; endosperm cell-division; high-temperature stress; soybean glycine-max; long-term exposure

Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development - Hatfield, Jerry L.; Prueger, John H. (Weather and Climate Extremes, 2015)
Keywords: Temperature stress Crop production Pollination Phenology Plant growth

Meeting global food needs: Realizing the potential via genetics × environment × management interactions - Hatfield, Jerry L.; Walthall, Charles L. (Agronomy Journal, 2015)

Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies - Hatfield, J. L.; Wright-Morton, Lois; Hall, Beth (Climatic Change, 2018)
Maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) are the dominant grain crops across the Midwest and are grown on 75% of the arable land with small but economically important crops of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and oats (Avena sativa L.) but economically important crops. Historically, there have been variations in annual yields for maize and soybean related to the seasonal weather patterns. Key concerns are the impacts of future climate change on maize and soybean production and their vulnerability to future climate changes. To evaluate these, we analyzed the yield gaps as the difference between the attainable and actual yield at the county level and observed meteorological data to determine which seasonal meteorological variables were dominant in quantifying the actual/attainable yields. July maximum temperatures, August minimum temperatures, and July–August total precipitation were found to be the significant factors affecting the yield gap. These relationships were used to estimate the change in the yield gap through 2100 using both the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios for these variables for selected counties across the Midwest. Yield gaps increased with time for maize across the Midwest with the largest increases in the southern portion of the Corn Belt showing a large north-south gradient in the increase of the yield gap and minimal east-west gradient. Soybean was not as sensitive as maize because the projected temperatures do not exceed optimum temperature ranges for growth and reductions in production that are more sensitive to precipitation changes during the reproductive stages. Adaptation strategies for maize and soybean will require more innovation than simple agronomic management and require the linkage between geneticists, agronomists, and agricultural meteorologists to develop innovative strategies to preserve production in the Midwest.

Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape - Hauer, Mathew E. (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States - Hauer, Mathew E; Evans, Jason M; Mishra, Deepak R (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of ocean acidification in the California Current System - Hauri, C.; Gruber, N.; Vogt, M.; Doney, S. C.; Feely, R. A.; Lachkar, Z.; Leinweber, A.; McDonnell, A. M. P.; Munnich, M.; Plattner, G. K. (Biogeosciences, 2013)
BG

Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records - Hausfather, Zeke; Cowtan, Kevin; Clarke, David C.; Jacobs, Peter; Richardson, Mark; Rohde, Robert (Science Advances, 2017)
Sea surface temperature (SST) records are subject to potential biases due to changing instrumentation and measurement practices. Significant differences exist between commonly used composite SST reconstructions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), the Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST3), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SSTs (COBE-SST) from 2003 to the present. The update from ERSST version 3b to version 4 resulted in an increase in the operational SST trend estimate during the last 19 years from 0.07° to 0.12°C per decade, indicating a higher rate of warming in recent years. We show that ERSST version 4 trends generally agree with largely independent, near-global, and instrumentally homogeneous SST measurements from floating buoys, Argo floats, and radiometer-based satellite measurements that have been developed and deployed during the past two decades. We find a large cooling bias in ERSST version 3b and smaller but significant cooling biases in HadSST3 and COBE-SST from 2003 to the present, with respect to most series examined. These results suggest that reported rates of SST warming in recent years have been underestimated in these three data sets.

Aquatic invasive species: Challenges for the future - Havel, John E.; Kovalenko, Katya E.; Thomaz, Sidinei Magela; Amalfitano, Stefano; Kats, Lee B. (Hydrobiologia, 2015)
Humans have effectively transported thousands of species around the globe and, with accelerated trade; the rate of introductions has increased over time. Aquatic ecosystems seem at particular risk from invasive species because of threats to biodiversity and human needs for water resources. Here, we review some known aspects of aquatic invasive species (AIS) and explore several new questions. We describe impacts of AIS, factors limiting their dispersal, and the role that humans play in transporting AIS. We also review the characteristics of species that should be the greatest threat for future invasions, including those that pave the way for invasions by other species (“invasional meltdown”). Susceptible aquatic communities, such as reservoirs, may serve as stepping stones for invasions of new landscapes. Some microbes disperse long distance, infect new hosts and grow in the external aquatic medium, a process that has consequences for human health. We also discuss the interaction between species invasions and other human impacts (climate change, landscape conversion), as well as the possible connection of invasions with regime shifts in lakes. Since many invaders become permanent features of the environment, we discuss how humans live with invasive species, and conclude with questions for future research.

Crop productivity and the global livestock sector: Implications for land use change and greenhouse gas emissions - Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Mosnier, Aline; Obersteiner, Michael; Baker, Justin S.; Herrero, Mario; Rufino, Mariana C.; Schmid, Erwin (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2013)
10.1093/ajae/aas085

Vulnerabilities of southwestern U.S. rangeland-based animal agriculture to climate change - Havstad, K. M.; Brown, J. R.; Estell, R.; Elias, E.; Rango, A.; Steele, C. (Climatic Change, 2016)
The Southwestern US is a five-state region that has supported animal agriculture since the late 16th Century when European settlers crossed the Rio Grande into present day west Texas and southern New Mexico with herds of cattle, sheep, goats and horses. For the past 400 years the rangeland livestock industry, in its many forms and manifestations, has developed management strategies and conservation practices that impart resilience to the climatic extremes, especially prolonged droughts, that are common and extensive across this region. Livestock production from rangelands in the southwest (SW) is adapted to low rainfall and high ambient temperatures, but will have to continue to adapt management strategies, such as reduced stocking rates, proper grazing management practices, employing animal genetics suited to arid environments with less herbaceous production, erosion control conservation practices, and alternative forage supplies, in an increasingly arid and variable climatic environment. Even though the aging demographics of western ranchers could be a deterrent to implementing various adaptations, there are examples of creative management coalitions to cope with climatic change that are emerging in the SW that can serve as instructive examples. More importantly, there are additional opportunities for incorporation of transformative practices and technologies that can sustain animal agriculture in the SW in a warmer environment. Animal agriculture in the SW is inherently resilient, and has the capacity to adapt and transform as needed to the climatic changes that are now occurring and will continue to occur across this region. However, producers and land managers will need to thoroughly understand the vulnerabilities and sensitivities that face them as well as the ecological characteristics of their specific landscapes in order to cope with the emerging climatic changes across the SW region.

Hawaiʻi Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report - Hawai‘i Climate Commission (Hawai‘i Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission, 2017)

A Blueprint for Action: Water Security for an Uncertain Future 2016-2018 - Hawai‘i Fresh Water Initiative (Hawai‘i Community Foundation, 2015)

2015 Annual Visitor Research Report - Hawai‘i Toursim Authority (Hawai‘i Toursim Authority, 2016)
Keywords: Hawaii grey literature

Increased Food Security and Food Self-Sufficiency Strategy - Hawaii Office of Planning (Hawaii Department of Business Economic Development & Tourism, Office of Planning, 2012)

Road density and landscape pattern in relation to housing density, and ownership, land cover, and soils - Hawbaker, Todd J; Radeloff, Volker C; Hammer, Roger B; Clayton, Murray K (Landscape ecology, 2005)

Texas Rice Belt flooded by heavy rains - Hawkes, Logan (Southwest FarmPress, 2016)

The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions - Hawkins, E.; Sutton, R. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009)

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change - Hawkins, E.; Sutton, R. (Climate Dynamics, 2011)

Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise - Hay, Carling C.; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E.; Mitrovica, Jerry X. (Nature, 2015)

Watershed-scale response to climate change through the twenty-first century for selected basins across the United States - Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Ward-Garrison, Christian (Earth Interactions, 2011)

The Changing Face of Kansas [Wheat State Whirlwind Tour presentation] - Hayden, Michael (Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism, 2011)

Quantifying Key Drivers of Climate Variability and Change for Puerto Rico and the Caribbean - Hayhoe, Katharine (Texas Tech University, 2013)

Climate models, scenarios, and projections - Hayhoe, K.; Edmonds, J.; Kopp, R.E.; LeGrande, A.N.; Sanderson, B.M.; Wehner, M.F.; Wuebbles, D.J. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

Our Changing Climate - Hayhoe, K.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Easterling, D.R.; Fahey, D.W.; Doherty, S.; Kossin, J.; Sweet, W.; Vose, R.; Wehner, M. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Strong connections, loose coupling: The influence of the Bering Sea ecosystem on commercial fisheries and subsistence harvests in Alaska - Haynie, Alan C.; Huntington, Henry P. (Ecology and Society, 2016)
Human-environment connections are the subject of much study, and the details of those connections are crucial factors in effective environmental management. In a large, interdisciplinary study of the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem involving disciplines from physical oceanography to anthropology, one of the research teams examined commercial fisheries and another looked at subsistence harvests by Alaska Natives. Commercial fisheries and subsistence harvests are extensive, demonstrating strong connections between the ecosystem and the humans who use it. At the same time, however, both research teams concluded that the influence of ecosystem conditions on the outcomes of human activities was weaker than anticipated. Likely explanations of this apparently loose coupling include the ability of fishers and hunters to adjust to variable conditions, and the role of social systems and management in moderating the direct effects of changes in the ecosystem. We propose a new conceptual model for future studies that incorporates a greater range of social factors and their dynamics, in addition to similarly detailed examinations of the ecosystem itself.
Keywords: Bering Sea commercial fisheries ecosystem studies human-environment connections subsistence

Why economics matters for understanding the effects of climate change on fisheries - Haynie, Alan C.; Pfeiffer, Lisa (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2012)
Haynie, A. C., and Pfeiffer, L. 2012. Why economics matters for understanding the effects of climate change on fisheries. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: .Research attempting to predict the effect of climate change on fisheries often neglects to consider how harvesters respond to changing economic, institutional, and environmental conditions, which leads to the overly simplistic prediction of “fisheries follow fish”. However, climate effects on fisheries can be complex because they arise through physical, biological, and economic mechanisms that interact or may not be well understood. Although most researchers find it obvious to include physical and biological factors in predicting the effects of climate change on fisheries, the behaviour of fish harvesters also matters for these predictions. A general but succinct conceptual framework for investigating the effects of climate change on fisheries that incorporates the biological and economic factors that determine how fisheries operate is presented. The use of this framework will result in more complete, reliable, and relevant investigations of the effects of climate change on fisheries. The uncertainty surrounding long-term projections, however, is inherent in the complexity of the system.
10.1093/icesjms/fss021

Climatic and economic drivers of the Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) fishery: Implications for the future - Haynie, Alan C.; Pfeiffer, Lisa (Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2013)

A re-examination of the projected subtropical precipitation decline - He, Jie; Soden, Brian J. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks - Headey, Derek (Food Policy, 2011)
Keywords: World food crisis International grain trade Export restrictions Demand surges

Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change - Heald, C. L.; Henze, D. K.; Horowitz, L. W.; Feddema, J.; Lamarque, J. F.; Guenther, A.; Hess, P. G.; Vitt, F.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Goldstein, A. H.; Fung, I. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2008)
Keywords: SOA climate MEGAN 0305 Aerosols and particles 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions 0322 Constituent sources and sinks 0325 Evolution of the atmosphere 0365 Troposphere: composition and chemistry

Slope Engineering for Mountain Roads - Hearn, G. J. (Geological Society, 2011)

Climate change and the transformation of risk: Insurance matters - Hecht, Sean B. (UCLA Law Review, 2008)

Insurance - Hecht, Sean B. (The Law of Adaptation to Climate Change: U.S. and Inernational Aspects, 2012)
Also UCLA School of Law Research Paper No. 13-12

Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries - Heck, Vera; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, Wolfgang; Popp, Alexander (Nature Climate Change, 2018)
Under the Paris Agreement, 195 nations have committed to holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to strive to limit the increase to 1.5 °C (ref. 1 ). It is noted that this requires "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of the century" 1 . This either calls for zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or a balance between positive and negative emissions (NE)2,3. Roadmaps and socio-economic scenarios compatible with a 2 °C or 1.5 °C goal depend upon NE via bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to balance remaining GHG emissions4–7. However, large-scale deployment of BECCS would imply significant impacts on many Earth system components besides atmospheric CO2 concentrations8,9. Here we explore the feasibility of NE via BECCS from dedicated plantations and potential trade-offs with planetary boundaries (PBs)10,11 for multiple socio-economic pathways. We show that while large-scale BECCS is intended to lower the pressure on the PB for climate change, it would most likely steer the Earth system closer to the PB for freshwater use and lead to further transgression of the PBs for land-system change, biosphere integrity and biogeochemical flows.

Association of climatic factors with infectious diseases in the Arctic and subarctic region—A systematic review - Hedlund, Christina; Blomstedt, Yulia; Schumann, Barbara (Global Health Action, 2014)
Keywords: infectious diseases climatic factors Arctic subarctic region systematic reviews

Genetic rescue in Isle Royale wolves: Genetic analysis and the collapse of the population - Hedrick, Philip W.; Peterson, Rolf O.; Vucetich, Leah M.; Adams, Jennifer R.; Vucetich, John A. (Conservation Genetics, 2014)
While genetic rescue is known to benefit population viability, the duration of that benefit is poorly understood. We document what appears to be the waning benefit of genetic rescue after approximately 2–3 generations for the wolf population in Isle Royale National Park. The fitness benefit of genetic rescue declined because of inbreeding and population abundance declined when the inbred individuals exhibited low reproduction and survival. Only detailed studies of other cases will reveal what aspects of these dynamics represent general features of genetic rescue. We also present evidence indicating that numerous past immigration events have likely gone undetected. This finding is of particular significance because the Isle Royale wolf population has maintained good population viability for decades even though it was small and thought to be isolated from the mainland population of wolves. Past gene flow also suggests that human-assisted gene flow is necessary to conserve the ecosystem services associated with predation, since climate warming has reduced the frequency of ice bridges and with it the only opportunity for unassisted gene flow.

Dealing with interrelatedness and fragmentation in road infrastructure planning: An analysis of integrated approaches throughout the planning process in the Netherlands - Heeres, Niels; Tillema, Taede; Arts, Jos (Planning Theory & Practice, 2016)

Charting the Emergence of Corporate Procurement of Utility-Scale PV - Heeter, Jenny; Cook, Jeffrey J.; Bird, Lori (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2017)

Developmental origins of health and disease: Integrating environmental influences - Heindel, Jerrold J.; Balbus, John; Birnbaum, Linda; Brune-Drisse, Marie Noel; Grandjean, Philippe; Gray, Kimberly; Landrigan, Philip J.; Sly, Peter D.; Suk, William; Slechta, Deborah Cory; Thompson, Claudia; Hanson, Mark (Endocrinology, 2016)
There are now robust data supporting the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) paradigm. This includes human and animal data focusing on nutrition or environmental chemicals during development. However, the term DOHaD has not been generally accepted as the official term to be used when one is concerned with understanding the pathophysiological basis for how environmental influences acting during early development influence the risk of later noncommunicable diseases. Similarly, there is no global research or public health program built around the DOHaD paradigm that encompasses all aspects of environment. To better inform the global health efforts aimed at addressing the growing epidemic of chronic noncommunicable diseases of environmental origin, we propose a two-pronged approach: first, to make it clear that the current concept of DOHaD comprehensively includes a range of environmental factors and their relevance to disease occurrence not just throughout the life span but potentially across several generations; and second, to initiate the discussion of how adoption of DOHaD can promote a more realistic, accurate, and integrative approach to understanding environmental disruption of developmental programming and better inform clinical and policy interventions. (Endocrinology 156: 3416–3421, 2015)
10.1210/en.2015-1394

Correlation between recruitment and fall condition of age-0 pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) from the eastern Bering Sea under varying climate conditions - Heintz, Ron A.; Siddon, Elizabeth C.; Farley, Edward V.; Napp, Jeffrey M. (Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2013)
Keywords: Pollock Bering Sea Recruitment Climate change Winter Prey quality

Using Crop Genetic Resources to Help Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change: Economics and Policy - Heisey, Paul W.; Day Rubenstein, Kelly (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 2015)

21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating - Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Bramer, Lisa M.; Fortin, Daniel C.; Hathaway, John E.; Huang, Maoyi; Kyle, Page; Leung, L. Ruby; Li, Hong-Yi; Liu, Ying; Patel, Pralit L.; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate–energy–water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review - Hellberg, Rosalee S.; Chu, Eric (Critical Reviews in Microbiology, 2016)

The State of Mental Health in America: Ranking the States [web page] - Hellebuyck, Michele; Halpern, Madeline; Nguyen, Theresa; Fritze, Danielle (Mental Health America, 2018)

Interactions between water, energy, food and environment: Evolving perspectives and policy issues - Hellegers, Petra; Zilberman, David; Steduto, Pasquale; McCornick, Peter (Water Policy, 2008)
Major changes are occurring with far reaching implications for the existing equilibria or disequilibria in the water-energy-food-environment interface. The increased demand of energy worldwide will reflect directly and indirectly on water-dependent systems. Direct implications will come from higher energy prices, which make extraction and conveyance of water more costly. Indirect implications will be in the form of demand for alternative energy sources. It triggers demand for hydropower and remains a major driver—along with some environmental policies—for biofuel expansion. The key question is how these effects may alter water allocation and influence food security, rural poverty and environmental sustainability. This paper sets the background and context of this special issue by highlighting some of the major water-related policy issues related to the subject and provides an overview and synthesis of the papers in this special issue. Besides offering insight into how these papers address these questions in the practical context of few selected countries and basins, this paper also indicates some key areas for future research on the subject.%U http://wp.iwaponline.com/content/ppiwawaterpol/10/S1/1.full.pdf

Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species - Hellmann, Jessica J.; Byers, James E.; Bierwagen, Britta G.; Dukes, Jeffrey S. (Conservation Biology, 2008)
Keywords: Climate change

A call to insect scientists: Challenges and opportunities of managing insect communities under climate change - Hellmann, Jessica J.; Grundel, Ralph; Hoving, Chris; Schuurman, Gregor W. (Current Opinion in Insect Science, 2016)

Observed decreases in oxygen content of the global ocean - Helm, Kieran P.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Church, John A. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2011)
Keywords: density surfaces isopycnal overturning circulation oxygen oxygen concentration thermohaline circulation 1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 3305 Climate change and variability 4271 Physical and chemical properties of seawater 4273 Physical and biogeochemical interactions 4513 Decadal ocean variability

Opportunities in rainwater harvesting - Helmreich, B.; Horn, H. (Desalination, 2009)
Keywords: Rainwater harvesting Rainfed agriculture Rainwater treatment Solar energy Membrane filtration Sand filtration

Addressing human vulnerability to climate change: Toward a "no-regrets" approach - Heltberg, Rasmus; Siegel, Paul Bennett; Jorgensen, Steen Lau (Global Environmental Change, 2009)
Keywords: Adaptation Climate change Social risk management Vulnerability No-regrets

Report from the Workshop on Climate Downscaling and Its Application in High Hawaiian Islands, September 16–17, 2015 - Helweg, David A.; Keener, Victoria; Burgett, Jeff M. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2016)
In the subtropical and tropical Pacific islands, changing climate is predicted to influence precipitation and freshwater availability, and thus is predicted to impact ecosystems goods and services available to ecosystems and human communities. The small size of high Hawaiian Islands, plus their complex microlandscapes, require downscaling of global climate models to provide future projections of greater skill and spatial resolution. Two different climate modeling approaches (physics-based dynamical downscaling and statistics-based downscaling) have produced dissimilar projections. Because of these disparities, natural resource managers and decision makers have low confidence in using the modeling results and are therefore are unwilling to include climate-related projections in their decisions. In September 2015, the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC), the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC), and the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) program convened a 2-day facilitated workshop in which the two modeling teams, plus key model users and resource managers, were brought together for a comparison of the two approaches, culminating with a discussion of how to provide predictions that are useable by resource managers. The proceedings, discussions, and outcomes of this Workshop are summarized in this Open-File Report.

Relationships between individual-tree mortality and water-balance variables indicate positive trends in water stress-induced tree mortality across North America - Hember, Robbie A.; Kurz, Werner A.; Coops, Nicholas C. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: climate change drought drought-related tree mortality field plots forest productivity tree mortality water stress water stress-induced tree mortality

Climate change implications for tropical islands: Interpolating and interpreting statistically downscaled GCM projections for management and planning - Henareh Khalyani, Azad; Gould, William A.; Harmsen, Eric; Terando, Adam; Quinones, Maya; Collazo, Jaime A. (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2016)
The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning energy demand, and two measures of annual no-rainfall days were used as drought indices. Holdridge life zone classification was used to map the possible ecological effects of climate change. Precipitation is predicted to decline in both model ensembles, but the decrease was more severe in the “regionally consistent” models. The precipitation declines cause gradual and linear increases in drought intensity and extremes. The warming from the 1960–90 period to the 2071–99 period was 4.6°–9°C depending on the global emission scenarios and location. This warming may cause increases in CDD, and consequently increasing energy demands. Life zones may shift from wetter to drier zones with the possibility of losing most, if not all, of the subtropical rain forests and extinction risks to rain forest specialists or obligates.
Keywords: Tropics,Evapotranspiration,Classification,Interpolation schemes,Ensembles,General circulation models

Forestry in Illinois—The Impact of the Forest Products Industry on the Illinois Economy: An Input-Output Analysis - Henderson, James E.; Munn, Ian A. (Illinois Forestry Development Council, 2012)

Effects of spring onset and summer duration on fish species distribution and biomass along the Northeast United States continental shelf - Henderson, M. Elisabeth; Mills, Katherine E.; Thomas, Andrew C.; Pershing, Andrew J.; Nye, Janet A. (Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 2017)
Studies documenting distributional shifts of fishes typically rely on time series of annual sampling events with fixed seasonal timing and limited temporal range. Meanwhile, as temperatures along the Northeast continental shelf have increased, the seasonal cycle also shifted towards earlier spring warming and longer summers. Seasonal migrations of fish and macroinvertebrates on the continental shelf in the Northeast US are thought to be primarily controlled by temperature and as such likely follow the temperature phenology of the shelf. This study sought to determine whether apparent changes in fish biomass and distributions are linked to spring warming phenology and/or duration of summer, the effective growing season for most species. We hypothesized that the earlier spring thermal transition would occur earlier and would cause centers of biomass to be more poleward during the spring survey. We also expected lengthening summers, primarily a function of later fall cooling, to cause centers of biomass in the fall survey to be more poleward and for biomass on the shelf to be greater within and following longer growing seasons. We did not detect a strong effect of the timing of the spring thermal transition in sea surface temperature on the distribution or abundance for most of the 43 fish stocks that we examined. However, later fall cooling and longer summers had a strong effect on both abundance and biomass of many fish stocks. These findings suggest that more focus should be placed on the length of the growing season and population-level processes that result in distributional shifts and changes in abundance.

Three measures of forest fire smoke exposure and their associations with respiratory and cardiovascular health outcomes in a population-based cohort - Henderson, S. B.; Brauer, M.; Macnab, Y. C.; Kennedy, S. M. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2011)
BACKGROUND: During the summer of 2003 numerous fires burned in British Columbia, Canada. OBJECTIVES: We examined the associations between respiratory and cardiovascular physician visits and hospital admissions, and three measures of smoke exposure over a 92-day study period (1 July to 30 September 2003). METHODS: A population-based cohort of 281,711 residents was identified from administrative data. Spatially specific daily exposure estimates were assigned to each subject based on total measurements of particulate matter (PM) ≤ 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) from six regulatory tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) air quality monitors, smoke-related PM10 from a CALPUFF dispersion model run for the study, and a SMOKE exposure metric for plumes visible in satellite images. Logistic regression with repeated measures was used to estimate associations with each outcome. RESULTS: The mean (± SD) exposure based on TEOM-measured PM10 was 29 ± 31 μg/m3, with an interquartile range of 14-31 μg/m3. Correlations between the TEOM, smoke, and CALPUFF metrics were moderate (0.37-0.76). Odds ratios (ORs) for a 30-μg/m3 increase in TEOM-based PM10 were 1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.06] for all respiratory physician visits, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.09-1.23) for asthma-specific visits, and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.00-1.29) for respiratory hospital admissions. Associations with cardiovascular outcomes were largely null. CONCLUSIONS: Overall we found that increases in TEOM-measured PM10 were associated with increased odds of respiratory physician visits and hospital admissions, but not with cardiovascular health outcomes. Results indicating effects of fire smoke on respiratory outcomes are consistent with previous studies, as are the null results for cardiovascular outcomes. Some agreement between TEOM and the other metrics suggests that exposure assessment tools that are independent of air quality monitoring may be useful with further refinement.
Journal Article,Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Keywords: Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Air Pollutants British Columbia Cardiovascular Diseases Child Cohort Studies Environmental Monitoring Epidemiological Monitoring Female Fires Hospitalization Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Logistic Models Male Middle Aged Models, Theoretical Office Visits Particulate Matter Remote Sensing Technology Respiratory Tract Diseases Young Adult

Biological mechanisms supporting adaptation to ocean acidification in coastal ecosystems - Hendriks, Iris E.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Olsen, Ylva S.; Steckbauer, Alexandra; Ramajo, Laura; Moore, Tommy S.; Trotter, Julie A.; McCulloch, Malcolm (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2015)
Keywords: Ocean acidification Biological interactions Calcification Homeostasis pH variability

The relationship between in-home water service and the risk of respiratory tract, skin, and gastrointestinal tract infections among rural Alaska natives - Hennessy, Thomas W.; Ritter, Troy; Holman, Robert C.; Bruden, Dana L.; Yorita, Krista L.; Bulkow, Lisa; Cheek, James E.; Singleton, Rosalyn J.; Smith, Jeff (American Journal of Public Health, 2008)
Ch9

Understanding social resilience in the Maine lobster industry - Henry, Anna M.; Johnson, Teresa R. (Marine and Coastal Fisheries, 2015)
The Maine lobster Homarus americanus fishery is considered one of the most successful fisheries in the world due in part to its unique comanagement system, the conservation ethic of the harvesters, and the ability of the industry to respond to crises and solve collective-action problems. However, recent threats raise the question whether the industry will be able to respond to future threats as successfully as it has to ones in the past or whether it is now less resilient and can no longer adequately respond to threats. Through ethnographic research and oral histories with fishermen, we examined the current level of social resilience in the lobster fishery. We concentrated on recent threats to the industry and the ways in which it has responded to them, focusing on three situations: a price drop beginning in 2008, a recovery in 2010–2011, and a second collapse of prices in 2012. In addition, we considered other environmental and regulatory concerns identified by fishermen. We found that the industry is not responding effectively to recent threats and identified factors that might explain the level of social resilience in the fishery. Received August 20, 2013; accepted October 29, 2014

The 2016 Annual Homeless Assessment Report (AHAR) to Congress: Part 1: Point-in-Time Estimates of Homelessness - Henry, Meghan; Watt, Rian; Rosenthal, Lily; Shivji, Azim (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2016)

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems - Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L. (Nature Communications, 2017)

Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity - Henson, S. A.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Dunne, J. P.; Bopp, L.; Lima, I.; Doney, S. C.; John, J.; Beaulieu, C. (Biogeosciences, 2010)

Toward the climate-resilient city: Extreme weather and urban climate adaptation policies in two Canadian provinces - Henstra, Daniel (Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 2012)

Projecting cold-water fish habitat in lakes of the glacial lakes region under changing land use and climate regimes - Herb, William R.; Johnson, Lucinda B.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Stefan, Heinz G. (Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2014)

Findings from the National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS) 2013-2014: A Demographic and Employment Profile of United States Farmworkers - Hernandez, Trish; Gabbard, Susan; Carroll, Daniel (U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Policy Development and Research, 2016)

The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies - Hernández-Delgado, E. A. (Marine Pollution Bulletin, 2015)
Climate change has significantly impacted tropical ecosystems critical for sustaining local economies and community livelihoods at global scales. Coastal ecosystems have largely declined, threatening the principal source of protein, building materials, tourism-based revenue, and the first line of defense against storm swells and sea level rise (SLR) for small tropical islands. Climate change has also impacted public health (i.e., altered distribution and increased prevalence of allergies, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases). Rapid human population growth has exacerbated pressure over coupled social-ecological systems, with concomitant non-sustainable impacts on natural resources, water availability, food security and sovereignty, public health, and quality of life, which should increase vulnerability and erode adaptation and mitigation capacity. This paper examines cumulative and synergistic impacts of climate change in the challenging context of highly vulnerable small tropical islands. Multiple adaptive strategies of coupled social-ecological ecosystems are discussed. Multi-level, multi-sectorial responses are necessary for adaptation to be successful.
Keywords: Vulnerability Humans Islands Public Health Conservation of Natural Resources Ecosystem Climate change adaptation Community livelihood Environmental decline Food Supply Quality of Life

Explaining extreme events of 2016 from a climate perspective - Herring, Stephanie C.; Christidis, Nikolaos; Hoell, Andrew; Kossin, James P.; Schreck, Carl J., III; Stott, Peter A. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018)

Explaining extreme events of 2015 from a climate perspective - Herring, Stephanie C.; Hoell, Andrew; Hoerling, Martin P.; Kossin, James P.; Schreck III, Carl J.; Stott, Peter A. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016)

Evaluating the impacts of multiple generalist fungal pathogens on temperate tree seedling survival - Hersh, Michelle H.; Vilgalys, Rytas; Clark, James S. (Ecology, 2012)
Keywords: Bayesian analysis co-infection Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA forest diversity fungi host specificity Janzen-Connell hypothesis pathogens plant–fungal interactions seedling mortality seedling recruitment

Will pre-adaptation buffer the impacts of climate change on novel species interactions? - Herstoff, Emily; Urban, Mark C. (Ecography, 2014)

Understanding the Rise in Rural Child Poverty, 2003–2014 - Hertz, Thomas; Farrigan, Tracey (USDA Economic Research Service, 2016)

An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation - Hess, Jeremy J.; Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E.; Raab, Kristin K.; George, Luber (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2014)

Integrating climate change adaptation into public health practice: Using adaptive management to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience - Hess, J.J.; McDowell, J.Z.; Luber, G. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2012)

Summertime acute heat illness in U.S. emergency departments from 2006 through 2010: Analysis of a nationally representative sample - Hess, Jeremy J.; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2014)
Ch2

Migrating adult steelhead utilize a thermal refuge during summer periods with high water temperatures - Hess, Maureen A.; Hess, Jon E.; Matala, Andrew P.; French, Rod A.; Steele, Craig A.; Lovtang, Jens C.; Narum, Shawn R. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2016)
Anadromous fishes often use various survival tactics while migrating through main stem rivers to successfully reach spawning grounds and reproduce. Mixed-stock assemblages of anadromous adult summer steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss re-enter the Columbia River from late spring through fall including the period of peak summer water temperatures, and previous studies suggest that stocks alter migratory behaviour in response to warm temperatures by seeking cool water refuges. We combined parentage-based tagging with mixed stock analyses to test whether steelhead use a non-natal tributary (Deschutes River, OR, USA) as a thermal refuge and if this migratory behaviour is associated with stock-specific run-timing. Results collected over two migration years indicated that out-of-basin fish in the Deschutes River were disproportionately from specific stocks in the Snake River (Salmon and Grande Ronde) that had migrated through the main stem Columbia River when water temperatures exceeded 21 °C. Stocks migrating through the main stem river during cooler temperature periods were either less frequent (Clearwater River), or not encountered (lower Snake River) in the Deschutes River. This study facilitates an improved understanding of stock-specific migratory characteristics associated with environmental conditions in this system. Results potentially affect fisheries management, hatchery protocols, cool-water refuge maintenance, and conservation of wild Deschutes River populations.

Restoring fire-prone Inland Pacific landscapes: Seven core principles - Hessburg, Paul F.; Churchill, Derek J.; Larson, Andrew J.; Haugo, Ryan D.; Miller, Carol; Spies, Thomas A.; North, Malcolm P.; Povak, Nicholas A.; Belote, R. Travis; Singleton, Peter H.; Gaines, William L.; Keane, Robert E.; et al. (Landscape Ecology, 2015)
More than a century of forest and fire management of Inland Pacific landscapes has transformed their successional and disturbance dynamics. Regional connectivity of many terrestrial and aquatic habitats is fragmented, flows of some ecological and physical processes have been altered in space and time, and the frequency, size and intensity of many disturbances that configure these habitats have been altered. Current efforts to address these impacts yield a small footprint in comparison to wildfires and insect outbreaks. Moreover, many current projects emphasize thinning and fuels reduction within individual forest stands, while overlooking large-scale habitat connectivity and disturbance flow issues.

Re-examining fire severity relations in pre-management era mixed conifer forests: Inferences from landscape patterns of forest structure - Hessburg, Paul F.; Salter, R. Brion; James, Kevin M. (Landscape Ecology, 2007)
For some time, ecologists have known that spatial patterns of forest structure reflected disturbance and recovery history, disturbance severity and underlying influences of environmental gradients. In spite of this awareness, historical forest structure has been little used to expand knowledge of historical fire severity. Here, we used forest structure to predict pre-management era fire severity across three biogeoclimatic zones in eastern Washington State, USA, that contained extensive mixed conifer forests. We randomly selected 10% of the subwatersheds in each zone, delineated patch boundaries, and photo-interpreted the vegetation attributes of every patch in each subwatershed using the oldest available stereo-aerial photography. We statistically reconstructed the vegetation of any patch showing evidence of early selective harvesting, and then classified them as to their most recent fire severity. Classification used published percent canopy mortality definitions and a dichotomized procedure that considered the overstory and understory canopy cover and size class attributes of a patch, and the fire tolerance of its cover type. Mixed severity fires were most prevalent, regardless of forest type. The structure of mixed conifer patches, in particular, was formed by a mix of disturbance severities. In moist mixed conifer, stand replacement effects were more widespread in patches than surface fire effects, while in dry mixed conifer, surface fire effects were more widespread by nearly 2:1. However, evidence for low severity fires as the primary influence, or of abundant old park-like patches, was lacking in both the dry and moist mixed conifer forests. The relatively low abundance of old, park-like or similar forest patches, high abundance of young and intermediate-aged patches, and widespread evidence of partial stand and stand-replacing fire suggested that variable fire severity and non-equilibrium patch dynamics were primarily at work.

Tamm Review: Management of mixed-severity fire regime forests in Oregon, Washington, and Northern California - Hessburg, Paul F.; Spies, Thomas A.; Perry, David A.; Skinner, Carl N.; Taylor, Alan H.; Brown, Peter M.; Stephens, Scott L.; Larson, Andrew J.; Churchill, Derek J.; Povak, Nicholas A.; Singleton, Peter H.; McComb, Brenda; et al. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2016)
Keywords: Forest resilience Resistance Climate change Multi-scale heterogeneity Patch size distributions Topographic controls Early successional habitats

The Melbourne thunderstorm asthma event: Can we avert another strike? - Hew, Mark; Sutherland, Michael; Thien, Francis; O'Hehir, Robyn (Internal Medicine Journal, 2017)

Historical trends, drivers, and future projections of ice phenology in small north temperate lakes in the Laurentian Great Lakes region - Hewitt, Bailey; Lopez, Lianna; Gaibisels, Katrina; Murdoch, Alyssa; Higgins, Scott; Magnuson, John; Paterson, Andrew; Rusak, James; Yao, Huaxia; Sharma, Sapna (Water, 2018)

Managing risk with climate prediction products and services - Hewitt, Chris; Silva, Viviane B. S.; Golding, Nicola; Gao, Rong; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Duell, Robyn; Pollock, Jonathan; Onogi, Kazutoshi; Secretariat, WMO (WMO Bulletin, 2015)

Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems - Hewitt, Judi E.; Ellis, Joanne I.; Thrush, Simon F. (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Keywords: benthic macrofauna freshwater discharge interactions key species rainfall regression trees southern oscillation species composition temperature wave exposure

Snow worries: Washington’s low snowfall - Heyden, Rhys (425 Magazine, 2015)

Ch. 10: Energy, water, and land use - Hibbard, Kathy; Wilson, Tom; Averyt, Kristen; Harriss, Robert; Newmark, Robin; Rose, Steven; Shevliakova, Elena; Tidwell, Vincent (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Changes in land cover and terrestrial biogeochemistry - Hibbard, K.A.; Hoffman, F.M.; Huntzinger, D.; West, T.O. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

Effects of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on wildfire - Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Johnson, Morris C.; Hayes, Jane L.; Preisler, Haiganoush K. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2012)
Keywords: Wildfire Bark beetles Fire behavior Fuels Forest disturbances