Development of dryland oilseed production systems in northwestern region of the USA - Long, D. S.; Young, F. L.; Schillinger, W. F.; Reardon, C. L.; Williams, J. D.; Allen, B. L.; Pan, W. L.; Wysocki, D. J. (BioEnergy Research, 2016)
This report addresses the development of dryland oilseed crops to provide feedstock for production of biofuels in semi-arid portions of the northwestern USA. Bioenergy feedstocks derived from Brassica oilseed crops have been considered for production of hydrotreated renewable jet fuel, but crop growth and yields in the northwestern region are limited by a lack of plant available water. Based on a review of the scientific literature, several areas were identified where research could be directed to provide improvements. The current agronomic limitations for oilseed production are mainly due to seedling establishment under extreme heat, dry seedbeds at optimum planting times, survival under extreme cold, and interspecific competition with weeds. To improve emergence and stand establishment, future work should focus on developing soil management and seeding techniques that optimize plant available water, reduce heat stress, and provide a competitive advantage against weeds that are customized for specific crops, soil types, and soil and environmental conditions. Spring and winter cultivars are needed that offer increased seedling vigor, drought resistance, and cold tolerance.

Managing California black oak for tribal ecocultural restoration - Long, Jonathan W.; Goode, Ron W.; Gutteriez, Raymond J.; Lackey, Jessica J.; Anderson, M. Kat (Journal of Forestry, 2017)
Many tribes in California and Oregon value California black oak (Quercus kelloggii) as a traditional source of food and other values. Over centuries or millennia, Native Americans learned that they could enhance production of desired resources by regularly igniting low-intensity surface fires in stands of black oak. Although black oak is likely to remain widespread in the future, a warming climate, increasingly dense forests, and altered fire regimes threaten the large, full-crowned mature trees that produce crops of high-quality acorns and provide cavities for many wildlife species. To examine the effects of different kinds of burns on tribal values including associated plants, fungi, and wildlife of special cultural significance, we reviewed and synthesized scientific studies of black oak in conjunction with interviews and workshops with tribal members who use the species and recall burning by their ancestors. We conducted two exploratory analyses to understand trends in large black oaks and potential tradeoffs regarding black oak restoration. Our findings identify opportunities for reintroducing low-intensity fire, in conjunction with thinning, to restore stands that are favorable for acorn gathering. We present examples of such projects and discuss how to overcome challenges in restoring the socioecological benefits of black oak ecosystems for tribes. Management and Policy Implications Wildfires and forest densification threaten the large California black oaks that produce acorns valued by tribes for food and social well-being. Tribal members identified desired conditions including large black oaks with full crowns and low branches that produce abundant acorns free from pests and a relatively open ground surface with diverse plant communities and edible fungi near the oak trees. Tribal knowledge of using frequent, low-intensity fires and other traditional tending and gathering practices can advance strategies for promoting these conditions. Active treatments that remove competing conifer trees, reduce fuels, and reintroduce low-intensity fire are needed to support tribal values associated with gathering acorns and other plant resources associated with black oak stands. Targeting stands with large black oaks in gently sloped areas close to roads would promote tribal access while reducing the likelihood of adversely affecting sensitive wildlife such as spotted owls and fishers. Forest management plans can build on recent efforts to work with tribes in developing monitoring, forest thinning, and fire management activities to promote black oaks.
Keywords: cultural burning traditional ecological knowledge forest planning ecosystem services landscape restoration

Finding forced trends in oceanic oxygen - Long, Matthew C.; Deutsch, Curtis; Ito, Taka (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2016)
Keywords: climate variability dissolve oxygen ocean biogeochemistry 1616 Climate variability 1627 Coupled models of the climate system 4805 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling

Effects of high pCO2 on Tanner crab reproduction and early life history, Part II: carryover effects on larvae from oogenesis and embryogenesis are stronger than direct effects - Long, W. Christopher; Swiney, Katherine M.; Foy, Robert J. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2016)

Effects of ocean acidification on juvenile red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) and Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi) growth, condition, calcification, and survival - Long, William Christopher; Swiney, Katherine M.; Harris, Caitlin; Page, Heather N.; Foy, Robert J. (PLOS ONE, 2013)
Ocean acidification, a decrease in the pH in marine waters associated with rising atmospheric CO2 levels, is a serious threat to marine ecosystems. In this paper, we determine the effects of long-term exposure to near-future levels of ocean acidification on the growth, condition, calcification, and survival of juvenile red king crabs, Paralithodes camtschaticus, and Tanner crabs, Chionoecetes bairdi. Juveniles were reared in individual containers for nearly 200 days in flowing control (pH 8.0), pH 7.8, and pH 7.5 seawater at ambient temperatures (range 4.4–11.9 °C). In both species, survival decreased with pH, with 100% mortality of red king crabs occurring after 95 days in pH 7.5 water. Though the morphology of neither species was affected by acidification, both species grew slower in acidified water. At the end of the experiment, calcium concentration was measured in each crab and the dry mass and condition index of each crab were determined. Ocean acidification did not affect the calcium content of red king crab but did decrease the condition index, while it had the opposite effect on Tanner crabs, decreasing calcium content but leaving the condition index unchanged. This suggests that red king crab may be able to maintain calcification rates, but at a high energetic cost. The decrease in survival and growth of each species is likely to have a serious negative effect on their populations in the absence of evolutionary adaptation or acclimatization over the coming decades.

Transformative Adaptation: What It Is, Why It Matters & What Is Needed - Lonsdale, K.; Pringle, P.; Turner, B. L. (UK Climate Impacts Programme, University of Oxford, 2015)
SBN: 978-1-906360-11-5

Hawaii and the Pacific Islands. Status and Trends of the Nation’s Biological Resources - Loope, L.L. (U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research Center, 1998)

Resource challenges at San Juan National Historic Site - López, Felix J. (Annual Meeting of the SFC CESU, 2016)

Climate Change Adaptation in Great Lakes Cities - Lopez, Melody; Barclay, Pamela; Ramachandran, Sundeep; Stock, Ryan; Bastoni, Cara; Hassan, Masooma; Eisenhauer, David; Mekias, Leila (School for Environment and Sustainability (SEAS/SNRE), 2013)

Northeast Economic Engine: Agriculture, Forest Products and Commercial Fishing - Lopez, Rigoberto; Plesha, Nataliya; Campbell, Benjamin; Laughton, Chris (Farm Credit East, 2015)

Deterministic nonperiodic flow - Lorenz, Edward N. (Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1963)
Finite systems of deterministic ordinary nonlinear differential equations may be designed to represent forced dissipative hydrodynamic flow. Solutions of these equations can be identified with trajectories in phase space. For those systems with bounded solutions, it is found that nonperiodic solutions are ordinarily unstable with respect to small modifications, so that slightly differing initial states can evolve into considerably different states. Systems with bounded solutions are shown to possess bounded numerical solutions. A simple system representing cellular convection is solved numerically. All of the solutions are found to be unstable, and almost all of them are nonperiodic. The feasibility of very-long-range weather prediction is examined in the light of these results.

A Review of the Literature on Seed Fate in Whitebark Pine and the Life History Traits of Clark’s Nutcracker and Pine Squirrels - Lorenz, Teresa J.; Aubry, Carol; Shoal, Robin (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 2008)

“Community work” in a climate of adaptation: Responding to change in rural Alaska - Loring, Philip A.; Gerlach, S. Craig; Penn, Henry J. (Human Ecology, 2016)

International Volunteering from the United States Between 2004 and 2012 - Lough, Benjamin J. (Center for Social Development, 2013)

The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea-level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America - Love, Ryan; Milne, Glenn A.; Tarasov, Lev; Engelhart, Simon E.; Hijma, Marc P.; Latychev, Konstantin; Horton, Benjamin P.; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E. (Earth's Future, 2016)
Keywords: Sea-Level Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Projections Numerical Modeling 0545 Modeling 1641 Sea-level change 1645 Solid Earth

Supplying urban ecosystem services through multifunctional green infrastructure in the United States - Lovell, Sarah Taylor; Taylor, John R. (Landscape Ecology, 2013)
This paper summarizes a strategy for supplying ecosystem services in urban areas through a participatory planning process targeting multifunctional green infrastructure. We draw from the literature on landscape multifunctionality, which has primarily been applied to agricultural settings, and propose opportunities to develop urban green infrastructure that could contribute to the sustainable social and ecological health of the city. Thinking in terms of system resilience, strategies might focus on the potential for green infrastructure to allow for adaptation and even transformation in the face of future challenges such as climate change, food insecurity, and limited resources. Because planning for multiple functions can be difficult when many diverse stakeholders are involved, we explored decision support tools that could be applied to green infrastructure planning in the early stages, to engage the public and encourage action toward implementing a preferred solution. Several specific ecosystem services that could be relevant for evaluating current and future urban green spaces include: plant biodiversity, food production, microclimate control, soil infiltration, carbon sequestration, visual quality, recreation, and social capital. Integrating such ecosystem services into small-scale greening projects could allow for creativity and local empowerment that would inspire broader transformation of green infrastructure at the city level. Those cities committing to such an approach by supporting greening projects are likely to benefit in the long run through the value of ecosystem services for urban residents and the broader public.

Mangrove dieback during fluctuating sea levels - Lovelock, Catherine E.; Feller, Ilka C.; Reef, Ruth; Hickey, Sharyn; Ball, Marilyn C. (Scientific Reports, 2017)
Recent evidence indicates that climate change and intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has increased variation in sea level. Although widespread impacts on intertidal ecosystems are anticipated to arise from the sea level seesaw associated with climate change, none have yet been demonstrated. Intertidal ecosystems, including mangrove forests are among those ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, but they may also be vulnerable to sea level variability and extreme low sea level events. During 16 years of monitoring of a mangrove forest in Mangrove Bay in north Western Australia, we documented two forest dieback events, the most recent one being coincident with the large-scale dieback of mangroves in the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia. Diebacks in Mangrove Bay were coincident with periods of very low sea level, which were associated with increased soil salinization of 20–30% above pre-event levels, leading to canopy loss, reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and reduced recruitment. Our study indicates that an intensification of ENSO will have negative effects on some mangrove forests in parts of the Indo-Pacific that will exacerbate other pressures.

The physiology of mangrove trees with changing climate - Lovelock, Catherine E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Osland, Michael J.; Reef, Ruth; Ball, Marilyn C. (Tropical Tree Physiology: Adaptations and Responses in a Changing Environment, 2016)

Effects of air pollution on ecosystems and biological diversity in the eastern United States - Lovett, Gary M.; Tear, Timothy H.; Evers, David C.; Findlay, Stuart E. G.; Cosby, B. Jack; Dunscomb, Judy K.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Weathers, Kathleen C. (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2009)
Keywords: acid deposition sulfur nitrogen mercury ozone eastern United States forest stream lake

Gulf of Mexico Regional Action Plan to Implement the NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy - Lovett, Heidi B.; Snider, Sunny B.; Gore, Karla K.; Muñoz, Roldan C. (NOAA Southeast Fisheries Science Center, 2016)

Heatwave early warning systems and adaptation advice to reduce human health consequences of heatwaves - Lowe, Dianne; Ebi, Kristie L.; Forsberg, Bertil (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2011)

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil - Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier (eLIFE, 2016)

Psychological resilience after Hurricane Sandy: The influence of individual- and community-level factors on mental health after a large-scale natural disaster - Lowe, Sarah R.; Sampson, Laura; Gruebner, Oliver; Galea, Sandro (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Several individual-level factors are known to promote psychological resilience in the aftermath of disasters. Far less is known about the role of community-level factors in shaping postdisaster mental health. The purpose of this study was to explore the influence of both individual- and community-level factors on resilience after Hurricane Sandy. A representative sample of household residents (N = 418) from 293 New York City census tracts that were most heavily affected by the storm completed telephone interviews approximately 13–16 months postdisaster. Multilevel multivariable models explored the independent and interactive contributions of individual- and community-level factors to posttraumatic stress and depression symptoms. At the individual-level, having experienced or witnessed any lifetime traumatic event was significantly associated with higher depression and posttraumatic stress, whereas demographic characteristics (e.g., older age, non-Hispanic Black race) and more disaster-related stressors were significantly associated with higher posttraumatic stress only. At the community-level, living in an area with higher social capital was significantly associated with higher posttraumatic stress. Additionally, higher community economic development was associated with lower risk of depression only among participants who did not experience any disaster-related stressors. These results provide evidence that individual- and community-level resources and exposure operate in tandem to shape postdisaster resilience.

Optimizing multiple reliable forward contracts for reservoir allocation using multitime scale streamflow forecasts - Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu; Robertson, Andrew W.; Cook, Edward (Water Resources Research, 2017)
Keywords: market-based reliable and insurable contracts climate-informed water management hierarchical multitime scales ensemble forecasts prescribed reliability for supplies dynamic flood control storage allocation nonlinear global optimization 1880 Water management 1873 Uncertainty assessment 1918 Decision analysis

The right incentives enable ocean sustainability successes and provide hope for the future - Lubchenco, Jane; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B.; Reimer, Jessica N.; Levin, Simon A. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Healthy ocean ecosystems are needed to sustain people and livelihoods and to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Using the ocean sustainably requires overcoming many formidable challenges: overfishing, climate change, ocean acidification, and pollution. Despite gloomy forecasts, there is reason for hope. New tools, practices, and partnerships are beginning to transform local fisheries, biodiversity conservation, and marine spatial planning. The challenge is to bring them to a global scale. We dissect recent successes using a complex adaptive-systems (CAS) framework, which acknowledges the interconnectedness of social and ecological systems. Understanding how policies and practices change the feedbacks in CASs by altering the behavior of different system components is critical for building robust, sustainable states with favorable emergent properties. Our review reveals that altering incentives—either economic or social norms, or both—can achieve positive outcomes. For example, introduction of well-designed rights-based or secure-access fisheries and ecosystem service accounting shifts economic incentives to align conservation and economic benefits. Modifying social norms can create conditions that incentivize a company, country, or individual to fish sustainably, curb illegal fishing, or create large marine reserves as steps to enhance reputation or self-image. In each example, the feedbacks between individual actors and emergent system properties were altered, triggering a transition from a vicious to a virtuous cycle. We suggest that evaluating conservation tools by their ability to align incentives of actors with broader goals of sustainability is an underused approach that can provide a pathway toward scaling sustainability successes. In short, getting incentives right matters.

Climate change and extreme heat events - Luber, George; McGeehin, Michael (American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2008)

The expanding tropics: A critical assessment of the observational and modeling studies - Lucas, Christopher; Timbal, Bertrand; Nguyen, Hanh (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2014)

Climate Change, Forests, Fire, Water, and Fish: Building Resilient Landscapes, Streams, and Managers - Luce, Charles; Morgan, Penny; Dwire, Kathleen; Isaak, Daniel; Holden, Zachary; Rieman, Bruce (USDA, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2012)

Sensitivity of summer stream temperatures to climate variability in the Pacific Northwest - Luce, Charles; Staab, Brian; Kramer, Marc; Wenger, Seth; Isaak, Dan; McConnell, Callie (Water Resources Research, 2014)
Keywords: differential sensitivity climate change adaptation stream temperature 1871 Surface water quality 1807 Climate impacts

The missing mountain water: Slower westerlies decrease orographic enhancement in the Pacific Northwest USA - Luce, C. H.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Holden, Z. A. (Science, 2013)
Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on Earth's hydrological cycle, owing to changes, for example, in air temperature, weather patterns, and land surface evaporation. In the Pacific Northwest of the United States, decreases in stream flow have been attributed to increased temperatures. Luce et al. (p. 1360, published online 29 November) show that these changes in stream flow are not likely to have been caused by temperature change, however, but rather by decreasing precipitation in the mountains where the streams originate. Trends in streamflow timing and volume in the Pacific Northwest United States have been attributed to increased temperatures, because trends in precipitation at lower-elevation stations were negligible. We demonstrate that observed streamflow declines are probably associated with declines in mountain precipitation, revealing previously unexplored differential trends. Lower-troposphere winter (November to March) westerlies are strongly correlated with high-elevation precipitation but weakly correlated with low-elevation precipitation. Decreases in lower-tropospheric winter westerlies across the region from 1950 to 2012 are hypothesized to have reduced orographic precipitation enhancement, yielding differential trends in precipitation across elevations and contributing to the decline in annual streamflow. Climate projections show weakened lower-troposphere zonal flow across the region under enhanced greenhouse forcing, highlighting an additional stressor that is relevant for climate change impacts on hydrology.

Sensitivity of snowpack storage to precipitation and temperature using spatial and temporal analog models - Luce, Charles H.; Lopez-Burgos, Viviana; Holden, Zachary (Water Resources Research, 2014)
Keywords: snow hydrology local polynomial regression climate sensitivity elasticity 0736 Snow 1621 Cryospheric change 1637 Regional climate change 1833 Hydroclimatology

Contributing factors for drought in United States forest ecosystems under projected future climates and their uncertainty - Luce, Charles H.; Vose, James M.; Pederson, Neil; Campbell, John; Millar, Connie; Kormos, Patrick; Woods, Ross (Forest Ecology and Management, 2016)
Keywords: Drought Forests Climate change Projections Climate modes

Shifting species assemblages in the northeast US continental shelf large marine ecosystem - Lucey, S. M.; Nye, J. A. (Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2010)
The Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES LME) has experienced 2 major pressures: fishing and climate. The magnitude and rate of response to these pressures are species-specific and depend on each individual species' behavior, physiology and life histories. Thus, species assemblages can be expected to change as a result of the sum of each individual species' response. In previous studies, distinct species assemblages have been identified in each of the 4 subregions by which the NES LME has traditionally been assessed: Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), Southern New England (SNE), Georges Bank (GB), and Gulf of Maine (GOM). In this study, we confirm that each subregion has a distinct species assemblage, but found that those assemblages are shifting over time. The shift appears to be towards species that prefer warmer water. The result is a species assemblage within each subregion that more closely resembles the historic assemblage found in the adjacent subregion to the south. These shifts have occurred in response to a combination of both fishing and climate, and are highly nonlinear. Therefore, current reductions in fishing pressure may not be adequate to return the system to a more historic species assemblage.
674RG; Times Cited:2; Cited References Count:47
Keywords: species distribution; northeast us continental shelf large marine ecosystem; fishing pressure; climate effect; non-metric multidimensional scaling; anosim; simper; georges bank; atlantic oscillation; climate-change; community structure; fish community; variability; fisheries; responses; recovery; trends

When El Niño rages: How satellite data can help water-stressed islands - Luchetti, Nicholas T.; Sutton, Jessica R. P.; Wright, Ethan E.; Kruk, Michael C.; Marra, John J. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016)
There are over 2000 islands across Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI), where fresh water resources are heavily dependent upon rainfall. Many of the islands experience dramatic variations in precipitation during the different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Traditionally, forecasters in the region relied on ENSO climatologies based on spatially-limited in situ data to inform their seasonal precipitation outlooks. To address this gap, a unique NOAA/NASA collaborative project updated the ENSO-based rainfall climatology for the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) encompassing Hawaii and the USAPI using NOAA’s PERSIANN Climate Data Record (CDR). The PERSIANN-CDR provides a 30-year record of global daily precipitation at 0.25° resolution (~750 km2 near the equator). This project took place over a 10-week NASA DEVELOP National Program term, and resulted in a 478-page climatic reference atlas. This atlas is based on a 30-year period from 1 January 1985 through 31 December 2014 and complements station data by offering an enhanced spatial representation of rainfall averages.Regional and EEZ-specific maps throughout the atlas illustrate the percent departure from average for each season based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for different ENSO phases. To facilitate inter-comparisons across locations, this percentage-based climatology was provided to regional climatologists, forecasters, and outreach experts within the region. Anomalous wet and dry maps for each ENSO phase are used by the regional constituents to better understand precipitation patterns across their regions and to produce more accurate forecasts to inform adaptation, conservation, and mitigation options for drought and flooding events.
Keywords: drought ENSO Rainfall Hawaii Seasonal forecasting freshwater Climatology Federated States of Micronesia Palau Republic of the Marshall Islands Guam American Samoa Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

Climate change and diseases of food crops - Luck, J.; Spackman, M.; Freeman, A.; Tre˛bicki, P.; Griffiths, W.; Finlay, K.; Chakraborty, S. (Plant Pathology, 2011)
Keywords: climate change field crop diseases potato rice soybean wheat

Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways - Luderer, Gunnar; Bertram, Christoph; Calvin, Katherine; De Cian, Enrica; Kriegler, Elmar (Climatic Change, 2016)
While the international community has agreed on the long-term target of limiting global warming to no more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, only a few concrete climate policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been implemented. We use a set of three global integrated assessment models to analyze the implications of current climate policies on long-term mitigation targets. We define a weak-policy baseline scenario, which extrapolates the current policy environment by assuming that the global climate regime remains fragmented and that emission reduction efforts remain unambitious in most of the world’s regions. These scenarios clearly fall short of limiting warming to 2 °C. We investigate the cost and achievability of the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO2e by 2100, if countries follow the weak policy pathway until 2020 or 2030 before pursuing the long-term mitigation target with global cooperative action. We find that after a deferral of ambitious action the 450 ppm CO2e is only achievable with a radical up-scaling of efforts after target adoption. This has severe effects on transformation pathways and exacerbates the challenges of climate stabilization, in particular for a delay of cooperative action until 2030. Specifically, reaching the target with weak near-term action implies (a) faster and more aggressive transformations of energy systems in the medium term, (b) more stranded investments in fossil-based capacities, (c) higher long-term mitigation costs and carbon prices and (d) stronger transitional economic impacts, rendering the political feasibility of such pathways questionable.

Life after death in Lake Erie: Nutrient controls drive fish species richness, rehabilitation - Ludsin, Stuart A.; Kershner, Mark W.; Blocksom, Karen A.; Knight, Roger L.; Stein, Roy A. (Ecological Applications, 2001)
Keywords: detrended correspondence analysis eutrophication Great Lakes Lake Erie oligotrophication phosphorus abatement productivity resilience species diversity species richness species turnover succession

Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: A review - Luedeling, Eike (Scientia Horticulturae, 2012)
Keywords: Adaptation Chilling Hours Chill Portions Climate analogues, Dynamic Model Tree dormancy

Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees - Luedeling, E.; Girvetz, E.H.; Semenov, M.A.; Brown, P.H. (PLOS ONE, 2011)

Cartilla Del Agua Para Puerto Rico - Lugo, Ariel E.; García-Martinó, Andrés; Quiñones-Márquez, Ferdinando (Acto Cientifica, 2011)

Alaska Food Cost Survey [web tool] - Luick, Bret (University of Alaska Cooperative Extension Service, 2018)

Predicting nonstationary flood frequencies: Evidence supports an updated stationarity thesis in the United States - Luke, Adam; Vrugt, Jasper A.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Matthew, Richard; Sanders, Brett F. (Water Resources Research, 2017)
Nonstationary extreme value analysis (NEVA) can improve the statistical representation of observed flood peak distributions compared to stationary (ST) analysis, but management of flood risk relies on predictions of out-of-sample distributions for which NEVA has not been comprehensively evaluated. In this study, we apply split-sample testing to 1250 annual maximum discharge records in the United States and compare the predictive capabilities of NEVA relative to ST extreme value analysis using a log-Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution. The parameters of the LPIII distribution in the ST and nonstationary (NS) models are estimated from the first half of each record using Bayesian inference. The second half of each record is reserved to evaluate the predictions under the ST and NS models. The NS model is applied for prediction by (1) extrapolating the trend of the NS model parameters throughout the evaluation period and (2) using the NS model parameter values at the end of the fitting period to predict with an updated ST model (uST). Our analysis shows that the ST predictions are preferred, overall. NS model parameter extrapolation is rarely preferred. However, if fitting period discharges are influenced by physical changes in the watershed, for example from anthropogenic activity, the uST model is strongly preferred relative to ST and NS predictions. The uST model is therefore recommended for evaluation of current flood risk in watersheds that have undergone physical changes. Supporting information includes a MATLAB® program that estimates the (ST/NS/uST) LPIII parameters from annual peak discharge data through Bayesian inference.

Lummi Nation Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Plan: 2016–2026 - Lummi Natural Resources Department (Lummi Nation, 2016)

Lower forest density enhances snow retention in regions with warmer winters: A global framework developed from plot‐scale observations and modeling - Lundquist, Jessica D.; Dickerson‐Lange, Susan E.; Lutz, James A.; Cristea, Nicoleta C. (Water Resources Research, 2013)
Many regions of the world are dependent on snow cover for frost protection and summer water supplies. These same regions are predominantly forested, with forests highly vulnerable to change. Here we combine a meta‐analysis of observational studies across the globe with modeling to show that in regions with average December‐January‐February (DJF) temperatures greater than −1°C, forest cover reduces snow duration by 1–2 weeks compared to adjacent open areas. This occurs because the dominant effect of forest cover shifts from slowing snowmelt by shading the snow and blocking the wind to accelerating snowmelt from increasing longwave radiation. In many locations, midwinter melt removes forest snow before solar radiation is great enough for forest shading to matter, and with warming temperatures, midwinter melt is likely to become more widespread. This temperature‐effect in forest‐snow‐climate interactions must be considered in representations of the combined ecohydrological system and can be used advantageously in forest management strategies.

A model–data comparison for a multi-model ensemble of early Eocene atmosphere–ocean simulations: EoMIP - Lunt, D. J.; Dunkley Jones, T.; Heinemann, M.; Huber, M.; LeGrande, A.; Winguth, A.; Loptson, C.; Marotzke, J.; Roberts, C. D.; Tindall, J.; Valdes, P.; Winguth, C. (Climate of the Past, 2012)

Contribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies to the California drought during 2012–2015 - Luo, Lifeng; Apps, Deanna; Arcand, Samuel; Xu, Huating; Pan, Ming; Hoerling, Martin (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: drought temperature anomaly precipitation deficit snowpack

Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States - Lute, A. C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Hegewisch, K. C. (Water Resources Research, 2015)
Keywords: snow climate variability climate change extreme events 0736 Snow 1616 Climate variability 1637 Regional climate change 1817 Extreme events

Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park - Lutz, James A; van Wagtendonk, Jan W; Franklin, Jerry F (Journal of Biogeography, 2010)

Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event - Lydersen, Jamie M.; Collins, Brandon M.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Matchett, John R.; Shive, Kristen L.; Povak, Nicholas A.; Kane, Van R.; Smith, Douglas F. (Ecological Applications, 2017)
Keywords: fire progression fire severity fuels reduction fuels treatment landscape analysis mixed conifer forest Rim Fire Stanislaus National Forest thinning wildfire Yosemite National Park

Plan quality evaluation 1994–2012: Growth and contributions, limitations, and new directions - Lyles, Ward; Stevens, Mark (Journal of Planning Education and Research, 2014)
During the last twenty years, more than forty-five publications have sought to measure and evaluate the quality of plans using content analysis methods. We examine reasons for this growth in the literature and its contributions and limitations. We also examine whether the research methods described in these publications conform to recommended practices in the methodological literature on content analysis to determine whether plan quality researchers are likely to be generating reliable and reproducible plan quality data. We provide seven recommendations plan quality researchers can follow to address these weaknesses and improve the reliability and reproducibility of their data.
Keywords: plan quality,research methods,plan evaluation,content analysis

Climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages - Lynch, Abigail J.; Myers, Bonnie J. E.; Chu, Cindy; Eby, Lisa A.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Lyons, John; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E. (Fisheries, 2016)

Recent and projected annual cycles of temperature and precipitation in the northeast United States from CMIP5 - Lynch, C.; Seth, A.; Thibeault, J. (Journal of Climate, 2016)
A case study is presented using the northeast United States to evaluate information contained in the monthly mean annual cycle that has yet to be exploited. This research documents the performance and projections for the northeast United States from a suite of 16 climate models in the archive of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Analysis is performed for the late twentieth-century monthly mean annual cycle and changes in the late twenty-first century. A weak seasonality in temperature and a strong seasonality in precipitation changes are found. The seasonality of changes is distinct from the mean annual cycles, such that temperature increases are largest in midwinter (December–February) and late summer [July–September (JAS)]. Precipitation increases peak in late winter–early spring (February–April), associated with increased moisture convergence and a more active storm track, and exhibit greatest model disagreement in late summer (JAS) when the models suggest weak divergence and a westward extension of the Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. The late summer–early fall maximum in temperature and late winter–early spring maximum in precipitation changes have not been seen previously in annual or seasonal mean analyses. Yet there is model agreement in these results, indicating that there is important information in the annual cycle for understanding the changes in the physical climate system and for evaluating impacts and adaptation strategies. It is argued that improved understanding of seasonal transitions has potential to increase confidence in projections, and to provide additional information of use to the impacts and decision-maker communities.
Keywords: Geographic location/entity,North America,Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Climate change,Models and modeling,Coupled models,Variability,Seasonal cycle

The impacts of climate change on tribal traditional foods - Lynn, Kathy; Daigle, John; Hoffman, Jennie; Lake, Frank; Michelle, Natalie; Ranco, Darren; Viles, Carson; Voggesser, Garrit; Williams, Paul (Climatic Change, 2013)

Evaluation of oxythermal metrics and benchmarks for the protection of cisco (Coregonus artedi) habitat quality and quantity in Wisconsin lakes - Lyons, John; Parks, Timothy P.; Minahan, Kristi L.; Ruesch, Aaron S. (Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2017)

Monitoring in the context of structured decision-making and adaptive management - Lyons, James E.; Runge, Michael C.; Laskowski, Harold P.; Kendall, William L. (Journal of Wildlife Management, 2008)

Fundamental shifts of central hardwood forests under climate change - Ma, Wu; Liang, Jingjing; Cumming, Jonathan R.; Lee, Eungul; Welsh, Amy B.; Watson, James V.; Zhou, Mo (Ecological Modelling, 2016)
Keywords: Climate change Fire regime Matrix growth model Forest dynamics Monte Carlo simulations Appalachians

Ski areas move past poor season, cheer forecasts - Maben, Scott (The Spokesman-Review, 2015)

The rationale for accelerating regionally focused climate intervention research - MacCracken, Michael C. (Earth’s Future, 2016)
Keywords: Crutzen climate intervention climate change Arctic climate change sulfate offset geoengineering 3305 Climate change and variability 4321 Climate impact 4930 Greenhouse gases 6309 Decision making under uncertainty 6620 Science policy

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on mountain snowpack in the St. Mary River watershed, Montana - MacDonald, Ryan J.; Byrne, James M.; Kienzle, Stefan W.; Larson, Robert P. (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2011)
The St. Mary River watershed is an important international watershed that supplies irrigation water to large portions of southern Alberta, Canada, and northern Montana. The St. Mary River is fully allocated and users on both sides of the border are concerned regarding declining water supplies and increasing water demands under climate warming. Water supply in the St. Mary River is largely from snowpack in the mountainous portion of the watershed. This work assesses potential future changes in snowpack for the St. Mary River watershed under a range of general circulation model (GCM) derived future climate scenarios. The Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) input spatial hydrometeorological model is used to simulate potential changes in spring snowpack, the onset of melt, and changes in snow extent for three 30-yr periods centered around 2025, 2055, and 2085. Results suggest an earlier spring and associated earlier onset of snowmelt and probable declines in maximum annual snow water equivalent (SWE) over the St. Mary River watershed are likely under most future climate scenarios used in this study. However, results are responsive to future climate scenarios, where a scenario with substantial global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission controls shows a much lower decline in total accumulated SWE over the St. Mary River watershed. Without substantial GHG emission reductions, the study does show that there could be significant changes in snowpack over the St. Mary River watershed in the future.
Keywords: Climate change,Snowpack,Watersheds

Biodiversity and ecosystem services: A multilayered relationship - Mace, Georgina M.; Norris, Ken; Fitter, Alastair H. (Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2012)

Aquifers of the Gulf Coast of Texas - Mace, Robert E.; Davidson, Sarah C.; Angle, Edward S.; Mullican, William F., III (Texas Water Development Board, 2006)

Toward the next generation of assessment - Mach, Katharine J.; Field, Christopher B. (Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2017)
Through integrative assessment, experts evaluate the state of knowledge on complex problems relevant to societies. In this review, we take stock of recent advances and challenges, rooting our analysis in climate change assessment. In particular, we consider four priorities in assessment: (a) integrating diverse evidence including quantitative and qualitative results and understanding, (b) applying rigorous expert judgment to evidence and its uncertainties, (c) exploring widely ranging futures and their connections to ongoing choices and actions, and (d) incorporating interactions among experts and decision makers in assessment processes. Across these assessment priorities, we survey past experiences, current practices, and possibilities for future experimentation, innovation, and learning. In our current era of climate and broader global change, integrative assessment can bolster decisions about contested and uncertain futures. We consider both opportunities and pitfalls in synthesizing and encompassing evidence and perspectives. Our aim is to advance transparent assessment for a sustainable future. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources Volume 42 is October 17, 2017. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Does blending of chlorophyll data bias temporal trend? - Mackas, David L. (Nature, 2011)

Changing zooplankton seasonality in a changing ocean: Comparing time series of zooplankton phenology - Mackas, D. L.; Greve, W.; Edwards, M.; Chiba, S.; Tadokoro, K.; Eloire, D.; Mazzocchi, M. G.; Batten, S.; Richardson, A. J.; Johnson, C.; Head, E.; Conversi, A.; et al. (Progress in Oceanography, 2012)

On the simulation of Laurentian Great Lakes water levels under projections of global climate change - MacKay, M.; Seglenieks, F. (Climatic Change, 2012)

Operational water consumption and withdrawal factors for electricity generating technologies: A review of existing literature - Macknick, J.; Newmark, R.; Heath, G.; Hallett, K. C. (Environmental Research Letters, 2012)
This report provides estimates of operational water withdrawal and water consumption factors for electricity generating technologies in the United States. Estimates of water factors were collected from published primary literature and were not modified except for unit conversions. The water factors presented may be useful in modeling and policy analyses where reliable power plant level data are not available. Major findings of the report include: water withdrawal and consumption factors vary greatly across and within fuel technologies, and water factors show greater agreement when organized according to cooling technologies as opposed to fuel technologies; a transition to a less carbon-intensive electricity sector could result in either an increase or a decrease in water use, depending on the choice of technologies and cooling systems employed; concentrating solar power technologies and coal facilities with carbon capture and sequestration capabilities have the highest water consumption values when using a recirculating cooling system; and non-thermal renewables, such as photovoltaics and wind, have the lowest water consumption factors. Improved power plant data and further studies into the water requirements of energy technologies in different climatic regions would facilitate greater resolution in analyses of water impacts of future energy and economic scenarios. This report provides the foundation for conducting water use impact assessments of the power sector while also identifying gaps in data that could guide future research.

The water implications of generating electricity: Water use across the United States based on different electricity pathways through 2050 - Macknick, J.; Sattler, S.; Averyt, K.; Clemmer, S.; Rogers, J. (Environmental Research Letters, 2012)
The power sector withdraws more freshwater annually than any other sector in the US. The current portfolio of electricity generating technologies in the US has highly regionalized and technology-specific requirements for water. Water availability differs widely throughout the nation. As a result, assessments of water impacts from the power sector must have a high geographic resolution and consider regional, basin-level differences. The US electricity portfolio is expected to evolve in coming years, shaped by various policy and economic drivers on the international, national and regional level; that evolution will impact power sector water demands. Analysis of future electricity scenarios that incorporate technology options and constraints can provide useful insights about water impacts related to changes to the technology mix. Utilizing outputs from the regional energy deployment system (ReEDS) model, a national electricity sector capacity expansion model with high geographical resolution, we explore potential changes in water use by the US electric sector over the next four decades under various low carbon energy scenarios, nationally and regionally.

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk - Maclean, Ilya M. D.; Wilson, Robert J. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011)
Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.

The societal costs and benefits of commuter bicycling: Simulating the effects of specific policies using system dynamics modeling - Macmillan, Alexandra; Connor, Jennie; Witten, Karen; Kearns, Robin; Rees, David; Woodward, Alistair (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2014)

Adverse effects of alewives on Laurentian Great Lakes fish communities - Madenjian, Charles P.; O'Gorman, Robert; Bunnell, David B.; Argyle, Ray L.; Roseman, Edward F.; Warner, David M.; Stockwell, Jason D.; Stapanian, Martin A. (North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 2008)

Management of cattle exposed to adverse environmental conditions - Mader, Terry L.; Griffin, Dee (Veterinary Clinics: Food Animal Practice, 2015)

Feeding strategies for managing heat load in feedlot cattle - Mader, T. L.; Holt, S. M.; Hahn, G. L.; Davis, M. S.; Spiers, D. E. (Journal of Animal Science, 2002)

A comprehensive index for assessing environmental stress in animals - Mader, T. L.; Johnson, L. J.; Gaughan, J. B. (Journal of Animal Science, 2010)
Numerous models and indices exist that attempt to characterize the effect of environmental factors on the comfort of animals and humans. Heat and cold indices have been utilized to adjust ambient temperature (Ta) for the effects of relative humidity (RH) or wind speed (WS) or both for the purposes of obtaining a "feels-like" or apparent temperature. However, no model has been found that incorporates adjustments for RH, WS, and radiation (RAD) over conditions that encompass hot and cold environmental conditions. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive climate index (CCI) that has application under a wide range of environmental conditions and provides an adjustment to Ta for RH, WS, and RAD. Environmental data were compiled from 9 separate summer periods in which heat stress events occurred and from 6 different winter periods to develop and validate the CCI. The RH adjustment is derived from an exponential relationship between Ta and RH with temperature being adjusted up or down from an RH value of 30%. At 45°C, the temperature adjustment for increasing RH from 30 to 100% equals approximately 16°C, whereas at -30°C temperature adjustments due to increasing RH from 30 to 100% equal approximately -3.0°C, with greater RH values contributing to a reduced apparent temperature under cold conditions. The relationship between WS and temperature adjustments was also determined to be exponential with a logarithmic adjustment to define appropriate declines in apparent temperature as WS increases. With this index, slower WS results in the greatest change in apparent temperature per unit of WS regardless of whether hot or cold conditions exist. As WS increases, the change in apparent temperature per unit of WS becomes less. Based on existing windchill and heat indices, the effect of WS on apparent temperature is sufficiently similar to allow one equation to be utilized under hot and cold conditions. The RAD component was separated into direct solar radiation and ground surface radiation. Both of these were found to have a linear relationship with Ta. This index will be useful for further development of biological response functions, which are associated with energy exchange, and improving decision-making processes, which are weather-dependent. In addition, the defined thresholds can serve as management and environmental mitigation guidelines to protect and ensure animal comfort.

Customary Trade and Barter in Fish in the Seward Peninsula Area, Alaska - Magdanz, James S.; Tahbone, Sandra; Ahmasuk, Austin; Koster, David S.; Davis, Brian L. (Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Subsistence, 2007)

Domoic acid hurt jobs, along with clams - Magee, Mark (Chinook Observer, 2017)

Modeling oxythermal stress for cool-water fishes in lakes using a cumulative dosage approach - Magee, Madeline R.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Wu, Chin H. (Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2017)

Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry - Magee, Madeline R.; Wu, Chin H. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2017)

Effects of changing climate on ice cover in three morphometrically different lakes - Magee, Madeline R.; Wu, Chin H. (Hydrological Processes, 2017)
A one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM-WQ-I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice-on, ice-off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice-on dates and earlier ice-off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of −10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes.

Community resilience: An indicator of social sustainability - Magis, Kristen (Society & Natural Resources, 2010)

Potential effects of climate changes on aquatic systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian shield region - Magnuson, J. J.; Webster, K. E.; Assel, R. A.; Bowser, C. J.; Dillon, P. J.; Eaton, J. G.; Evans, H. E.; Fee, E. J.; Hall, R. I.; Mortsch, L. R.; Schindler, D. W.; Quinn, F. H. (Hydrological Processes, 1997)
Keywords: Laurentian Great Lakes Precambrian Shield climate change aquatic systems north temperate glacial lakes hydrology paleoclimates lake ice water level physical limnology chemical limnology phytoplankton zooplankton fish terrestrial-aquatic linkages interaction with other stresses heterogeneity in response biogeochemistry

Fulfilling the promise of "Parks to People" in a changing environment: The Gateway National Recreation Area experience - Mahan, Helen (The George Wright Forum, 2015)

Erosion of refugia in the Sierra Nevada meadows network with climate change - Maher, Sean P.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Hershey, Michelle; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Moritz, Craig; Beissinger, Steven R. (Ecosphere, 2017)
Keywords: Circuitscape climate connectivity conservation dispersal meadows refugia

Dissolved oxygen fluctuations in karst spring flow and implications for endemic species: Barton Springs, Edwards aquifer, Texas, USA - Mahler, B. J.; Bourgeais, R. (Journal of Hydrology, 2013)
Keywords: Karst spring Dissolved oxygen Endemic species Climate change Edwards aquifer

Linking climate change and karst hydrology to evaluate species vulnerability: The Edwards and Madison aquifers - Mahler, B. J.; Long, A. J.; Stamm, J. F.; Poteet, M.; Symstad, A. (American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013, 2013)

Land cover changes and their biogeophysical effects on climate - Mahmood, R.; Pielke, R.A.; Hubbard, K.G.; Niyogi, D.; Dirmeyer, P.A.; McAlpine, C.; Carleton, A.M.; Hale, R.; Gameda, S.; Beltrán-Przekurat, A.; Baker, B.; McNider, R.; et al. (International Journal of Climatology, 2014)

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making - Mahmoud, Mohammed; Liu, Yuqiong; Hartmann, Holly; Stewart, Steven; Wagener, Thorsten; Semmens, Darius; Stewart, Robert; Gupta, Hoshin; Dominguez, Damian; Dominguez, Francina; Hulse, David; Letcher, Rebecca; et al. (Environmental Modelling & Software, 2009)
Keywords: Alternative futures Decision-making Scenario analysis Scenarios Scenario planning Uncertainty

A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards - Mai, Trieu; Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen; Bird, Lori; Heeter, Jenny; Keyser, David; Krishnan, Venkat; Macknick, Jordan; Millstein, Dev (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2016)

Climate change and invasive species: double jeopardy - Mainka, Susan A.; Howard, Geoffrey W. (Integrative Zoology, 2010)
Two of the key drivers of biodiversity loss today are climate change and invasive species. Climate change is already having a measurable impact on species distributions, reproduction and behavior, and all evidence suggests that things will get worse even if we act tomorrow to mitigate any future increases in greenhouse gas emissions: temperature will increase, precipitation will change, sea level will rise and ocean chemistry will change. At the same time, biological invasions remain an important threat to biodiversity, causing species loss, changes in distribution and habitat degradation. Acting together, the impacts of each of these drivers of change are compounded and interactions between these two threats present even greater challenges to field conservationists as well as policymakers. Similarly, the social and economic impacts of climate change and invasive species, already substantial, will be magnified. Awareness of the links between the two should underpin all biodiversity management planning and policy.
Keywords: climate change Conservation of Natural Resources Biodiversity Introduced Species Public Policy

Health cobenefits and transportation-related reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the San Francisco Bay area - Maizlish, Neil; Woodcock, James; Co, Sean; Ostro, Bart; Fanai, Amir; Fairley, David (American Journal of Public Health, 2013)

Agricultural Adaptation to a Changing Climate: Economic and Environmental Implications Vary by U.S. Region. USDA-ERS Economic Research Report 136 - Malcolm, Scott; Marshall, Elizabeth; Aillery, Marcel; Heisey, Paul; Livingston, Michael; Day-Rubenstein, Kelly (U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, 2012)

Adaptation can help U.S. crop producers confront climate change - Malcolm, Scott; Marshall, Elizabeth; Heisey, Paul; Livingston, Michael (Amber Waves, 2013)

The story of Rising Voices: Facilitating collaboration between Indigenous and Western ways of knowing - Maldonado, Julie; Lazrus, Heather; Bennett, Shiloh-Kay; Chief, Karletta; Dhillon, Carla May; Gough, Bob; Kruger, Linda; Morisette, Jeff; Petrovic, Stefan; Whyte, Kyle Powys (Responses to Disasters and Climate Change: Understanding Vulnerability and Fostering Resilience, 2016)

Just Environmental and Climate Pathways: Knowledge Exchange among Community Organizers, Scholar-Activists, Citizen-Scientists and Artists - Maldonado, Julie; Powell, Dana (Society for Applied Anthropology Annual Meeting, 2017)

A multiple knowledge approach for adaptation to environmental change: Lessons learned from coastal Louisiana's tribal communities - Maldonado, Julie Koppel (Journal of Political Ecology, 2014)

Facing the Rising Tide: Co-occurring Disasters, Displacement, and Adaptation in Coastal Louisiana’s Tribal Communities - Maldonado, Julie Koppel (Anthropology, 2014)

Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples in the United States: Impacts, Experiences and Actions - Maldonado, Julie Koppel; Pandya, Rajul E.; Colombi, Benedict J. (Springer, 2014)

A community-based model for resettlement: Lessons from coastal Louisiana - Maldonado, Julie K.; Peterson, Kristina (Routledge Handbook of Environmental Displacement and Migration, 2018)

The impact of climate change on tribal communities in the US: Displacement, relocation, and human rights - Maldonado, Julie Koppel; Shearer, Christine; Bronen, Robin; Peterson, Kristina; Lazrus, Heather (Climatic Change, 2013)

Linking phytoplankton phenology to salmon productivity along a north–south gradient in the Northeast Pacific Ocean - Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.; Mueter, Franz J.; Peterman, Randall M. (Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2015)

Life stage, not climate change, explains observed tree range shifts - Máliš, František; Kopecký, Martin; Petřík, Petr; Vladovič, Jozef; Merganič, Ján; Vida, Tomáš (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Keywords: elevational range shift realized niche semipermanent plots temperate forests tree life stages tree ontogeny vegetation resurvey

The changing nature of flooding across the central United States - Mallakpour, Iman; Villarini, Gabriele (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Technical challenges and solutions in representing lakes when using WRF in downscaling applications - Mallard, M. S.; Nolte, C. G.; Spero, T. L.; Bullock, O. R.; Alapaty, K.; Herwehe, J. A.; Gula, J.; Bowden, J. H. (Geoscientific Model Development, 2015)

Impacts of upwind wildfire emissions on CO, CO2, and PM2.5 concentrations in Salt Lake City, Utah - Mallia, D. V.; Lin, J. C.; Urbanski, S.; Ehleringer, J.; Nehrkorn, T. (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2015)
Keywords: biomass burning emissions air quality land-atmosphere exchange Lagrangian particle dispersion models Weather Research and Forecasting Model trajectory modeling 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions 0305 Aerosols and particles 0345 Pollution: urban and regional 0399 General or miscellaneous 0368 Troposphere: constituent transport and chemistry

North American climate in CMIP5 experiments: Part III: Assessment of twenty-first-century projections - Maloney, Eric D.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Chang, Edmund; Colle, Brian; Fu, Rong; Geil, Kerrie L.; Hu, Qi; Jiang, Xianan; Johnson, Nathaniel; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Kinter, James; Kirtman, Benjamin; et al. (Journal of Climate, 2014)
In part III of a three-part study on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, the authors examine projections of twenty-first-century climate in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission experiments. This paper summarizes and synthesizes results from several coordinated studies by the authors. Aspects of North American climate change that are examined include changes in continental-scale temperature and the hydrologic cycle, extremes events, and storm tracks, as well as regional manifestations of these climate variables. The authors also examine changes in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and North American intraseasonal to decadal variability, including changes in teleconnections to other regions of the globe. Projected changes are generally consistent with those previously published for CMIP3, although CMIP5 model projections differ importantly from those of CMIP3 in some aspects, including CMIP5 model agreement on increased central California precipitation. The paper also highlights uncertainties and limitations based on current results as priorities for further research. Although many projected changes in North American climate are consistent across CMIP5 models, substantial intermodel disagreement exists in other aspects. Areas of disagreement include projections of changes in snow water equivalent on a regional basis, summer Arctic sea ice extent, the magnitude and sign of regional precipitation changes, extreme heat events across the northern United States, and Atlantic and east Pacific tropical cyclone activity.
Keywords: North America,Climate change,Climate prediction,Climate models

A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications - Maloney, Megan C.; Preston, Benjamin L. (Climate Risk Management, 2014)
Keywords: Climate change Storm surge Hurricane Sea-level rise Coastal vulnerability Exposure

The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a General Circulation Model - Manabe, Syukuro; Wetherald, Richard T. (Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1975)
An attempt is made to estimate the temperature changes resulting from doubling the present CO2 concentration by the use of a simplified three-dimensional general circulation model. This model contains the following simplications: a limited computational domain, an idealized topography, no beat transport by ocean currents, and fixed cloudiness. Despite these limitations, the results from this computation yield some indication of how the increase of CO2 concentration may affect the distribution of temperature in the atmosphere. It is shown that the CO2 increase raises the temperature of the model troposphere, whereas it lowers that of the model stratosphere. The tropospheric warming is somewhat larger than that expected from a radiative-convective equilibrium model. In particular, the increase of surface temperature in higher latitudes is magnified due to the recession of the snow boundary and the thermal stability of the lower troposphere which limits convective beating to the lowest layer. It is also shown that the doubling of carbon dioxide significantly increases the intensity of the hydrologic cycle of the model.

Chemical contamination of soils in the New York City area following Hurricane Sandy - Mandigo, Amy C.; DiScenza, Dana J.; Keimowitz, Alison R.; Fitzgerald, Neil (Environmental Geochemistry and Health, 2016)
This paper presents a unique data set of lead, arsenic, polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in soil samples collected from the metropolitan New York City area in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Initial samples were collected by citizen scientists recruited via social media, a relatively unusual approach for a sample collection project. Participants in the affected areas collected 63 usable samples from basements, gardens, roads, and beaches. Results indicate high levels of arsenic, lead, PCBs, and PAHs in an area approximately 800 feet south of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Superfund site at Newtown Creek. A location adjacent to the Gowanus Canal, another Superfund site, was found to have high PCB concentrations. Areas of high PAH contamination tended to be near high traffic areas or next to sites of known contamination. While contamination as a direct result of Hurricane Sandy cannot be demonstrated conclusively, the presence of high levels of contamination close to known contamination sites, evidence for co-contamination, and decrease in number of samples containing measureable amounts of semi-volatile compounds from samples collected at similar locations 9 months after the storm suggest that contaminated particles may have migrated to residential areas as a result of flooding.

South Asia's Hotspots: Impacts of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Living Standards - Mani, Muthukumara; Bandyopadhyay, Sushenjit; Chonabayashi, Shun; Markandya, Anil; Mosier, Thomas (South Asia Development Matters, 2018)

The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future - Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the

Future context for thermal comfort: Impact of a changing climate on energy demand and human thermal comfort - Mann, Bryan; Passe, Ulrike; Rabideau, Shannon; Takle, Eugene S. (7th Windsor Conference: The changing context of comfort in an unpredictable world, 2012)

Is Alaska's boreal forest now crossing a major ecological threshold? - Mann, Daniel H.; Rupp, T. Scott; Olson, Mark A.; Duffy, Paul A. (Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 2012)

Climate change and California drought in the 21st century - Mann, Michael E.; Gleick, Peter H. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)

Influence of anthropogenic climate change on planetary wave resonance and extreme weather events - Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Coumou, Dim (Scientific Reports, 2017)

Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia - Mann, M.E.; Zhang, Z.; Hughes, M.K.; Bradley, R.S.; Miller, S.K.; Rutherford, S.; Ni, F. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2008)
Following the suggestions of a recent National Research Council report [NRC (National Research Council) (2006) Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (Natl Acad Press, Washington, DC).], we reconstruct surface temperature at hemispheric and global scale for much of the last 2,000 years using a greatly expanded set of proxy data for decadal-to-centennial climate changes, recently updated instrumental data, and complementary methods that have been thoroughly tested and validated with model simulation experiments. Our results extend previous conclusions that recent Northern Hemisphere surface temperature increases are likely anomalous in a long-term context. Recent warmth appears anomalous for at least the past 1,300 years whether or not tree-ring data are used. If tree-ring data are used, the conclusion can be extended to at least the past 1,700 years, but with additional strong caveats. The reconstructed amplitude of change over past centuries is greater than hitherto reported, with somewhat greater Medieval warmth in the Northern Hemisphere, albeit still not reaching recent levels.
Keywords: climate change; global warming; TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES; MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE; FIELD RECONSTRUCTION; CLIMATE; VARIABILITY; CENTURIES; ATLANTIC; SENSITIVITY; RESOLUTION

Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California - Mann, Michael L.; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A.; Waller, Eric K.; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Dolfi, Emmalee (PLOS ONE, 2016)
The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

Defining the risk of zika and chikungunya virus transmission in human population centers of the eastern United States - Manore, Carrie A.; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Agusto, Folashade B.; Gaff, Holly; LaDeau, Shannon L. (PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2017)
Zika and chikungunya viruses are transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, including Ae. albopictus, which is abundant in many temperate cities. While disease risk is lower in temperate regions where viral amplification cannot build across years, there is significant potential for localized disease outbreaks in urban populations. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of virus from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. The model demonstrates that up to 50% of infectious travelers returning to the U.S. could initiate local transmission in temperate cities if are infectious and are exposed to high mosquito densities. This work highlights the need for high-resolution spatial data on Ae. albopictus density, biting behavior, and seasonality to better understand, predict and manage arboviral transmission risk in temperate cities.

Water bodies an urban microclimate: A review - Manteghi, Golnoosh; limit, Hasanuddin bin; Remaz, Dilshan (Modern Applied Science, 2015)

Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State - Mantua, N.; Tohver, I.; Hamlet, A. (Climatic Change, 2010)

A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production - Mantua, N.J.; Hare, S.R.; Zhang, Y.; Wallace, J.M.; Francis, R.C. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1997)

Rapid recent warming of coral reefs in the Florida Keys - Manzello, Derek P. (Scientific Reports, 2015)

Effects of global warming and ocean acidification on carbonate budgets of eastern Pacific coral reefs - Manzello, Derek P.; Mark Eakin, C.; Glynn, Peter W. (Coral Reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific: Persistence and Loss in a Dynamic Environment, 2017)
Eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) coral reefs provide a real-world example of reef growth, development, structure, and function under the high-pCO2, low aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) conditions expected for the entire tropical surface ocean with a doubling to tripling of atmospheric CO2. This provides a unique opportunity to examine various aspects of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) budgets in low-Ωarag conditions in the present day. Unlike anywhere else in the world, the ETP displays a continuum of thermal stress and CO2 inputs up to levels at which reef building is terminated and reef structures are lost. The response of coral reef CaCO3 budgets to El Niño warming across the ETP shows that reefs can be completely lost after experiencing a 2–3 °C thermal anomaly sustained in excess of two months during the warmest time of the year at Ωarag values expected for the rest of the tropics when atmospheric CO2 doubles. ETP coral reefs have persisted and shown resilience to this level of thermal stress or acidification when acting alone, but the combination of the two corresponded with the complete elimination of reef framework structures in the southern Galápagos Islands over the decade after the 1982–83 El Niño warming event. Reef carbonate degradation is exacerbated also by diverse agents of bioerosion such as sea urchins, boring bivalves, and excavating sponges, with experimental evidence demonstrating that the latter may even increase their activities during ocean warming and pH decline. This chapter reviews the CaCO3 budget of ETP coral reefs and discusses how a high-CO2 world may impact the major biotic and abiotic factors responsible for the cycling of carbonate materials. Coral reefs of the ETP serve as a model for conditions that will occur in other regions within a few decades.

Impacts of land-use change on hydrologic responses in the Great Lakes region - Mao, Dazhi; Cherkauer, Keith A. (Journal of Hydrology, 2009)
Keywords: Land-use change Hydrologic responses Evapotranspiration Runoff

Is climate change implicated in the 2013–2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective - Mao, Yixin; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: California drought climate change hydrologic model 1812 Drought 1807 Climate impacts 1817 Extreme events 1833 Hydroclimatology

Nonstationary temporal response of mountain hemlock growth to climatic variability in the North Cascade Range, Washington, USA - Marcinkowski, Kailey; Peterson, David L.; Ettl, Gregory J. (Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2015)

The distribution and abundance of parasites in aquatic ecosystems in a changing climate: More than just temperature - Marcogliese, David J. (Integrative and Comparative Biology, 2016)
Evaluation of the potential response of parasites of aquatic organisms to climate change illustrates the complexity of host–parasite relationships and the difficulty of making accurate predictions for these biological systems. In recent years, trematodes have proven to be a useful model to evaluate potential effects of climate change on host–parasite systems. In the first part of this article, I review and summarize results from the recent use of trematodes and specifically their early life cycle stages in testing effects of temperature and other climate-driven variables on life history traits and host–parasite interactions. However, metazoan parasites in aquatic systems respond directly to changes in temperature and also to changes in other climate-driven abiotic parameters that are mediated directly on the parasite or indirectly through changes in the distribution and abundance of their hosts. In addition, though most research to date has focused on the effects of temperature, it is imperative to explore effects of precipitation, eutrophication, acidification, water levels and flow rates, habitat loss and fragmentation, extreme weather, and other forms of anthropogenic interference on the distribution of both hosts and parasites, as these biotic and abiotic factors and stressors do not operate independently of climate. In the second part of this article, the effects of some of these factors derived from our own field studies, as well as other investigations both in the laboratory and the field, on the distribution, abundance, and community structure of parasites in aquatic ecosystems will be reviewed and discussed.
10.1093/icb/icw036

Internal variability versus anthropogenic forcing on sea level and its components - Marcos, Marta; Marzeion, Ben; Dangendorf, Sönke; Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana (Surveys in Geophysics, 2017)
In this paper we review and update detection and attribution studies in sea level and its major contributors during the past decades. Tide gauge records reveal that the observed twentieth-century global and regional sea level rise is out of the bounds of its natural variability, evidencing thus a human fingerprint in the reported trends. The signal varies regionally, and it partly depends on the magnitude of the background variability. The human fingerprint is also manifested in the contributors of sea level for which observations are available, namely ocean thermal expansion and glaciers’ mass loss, which dominated the global sea level rise over the twentieth century. Attribution studies provide evidence that the trends in both components are clearly dominated by anthropogenic forcing over the second half of the twentieth century. In the earlier decades, there is a lack of observations hampering an improved attribution of causes to the observed sea level rise. At certain locations along the coast, the human influence is exacerbated by local coastal activities that induce land subsidence and increase the risk of sea level-related hazards.

A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years - Marcott, Shaun A.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Clark, Peter U.; Mix, Alan C. (Science, 2013)
Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time. Here we provide a broader perspective by reconstructing regional and global temperature anomalies for the past 11,300 years from 73 globally distributed records. Early Holocene (10,000 to 5000 years ago) warmth is followed by ~0.7°C cooling through the middle to late Holocene (<5000 years ago), culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. This cooling is largely associated with ~2°C change in the North Atlantic. Current global temperatures of the past decade have not yet exceeded peak interglacial values but are warmer than during ~75% of the Holocene temperature history. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections for 2100 exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Forests and Regional Development: Economic Impacts of Woodland Use For Recreation and Timber in Wisconsin - Marcouiller, Dave; Mace, Terry (University of Wisconsin Cooperative Extension, 2005)

New mapping tool and techniques for visualizing sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts - Marcy, Douglas; Brooks, William; Draganov, Kyle; Hadley, Brian; Haynes, Chris; Herold, Nate; McCombs, John; Pendleton, Matt; Ryan, Sean; Schmid, Keil; Sutherland, Mike; Waters, Kirk (Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2011, 2011)

Climate change and interpersonal violence: A “global” estimate and regional inequities - Mares, Dennis M.; Moffett, Kenneth W. (Climatic Change, 2016)
This study estimates the predicted impact of climate change on levels of violence in a sample of 57 countries. We sample western and non-western countries and perform a multilevel ARFIMA regression to examine if warmer temperatures are associated with higher levels of homicide. Our results indicate that each degree Celsius increase in annual temperatures is associated with a nearly 6 % average increase in homicides. Regional variation in this predicted effect is detected, for example, with no apparent effects in former Soviet countries and far stronger effects found in Africa. Such variation indicates that climate change may acutely increase violence in areas that already are affected by higher levels of homicides and other social dislocations.

Enhancing conservation on agricultural landscapes: A new direction for the Conservation Effects Assessment Project - Maresch, Wayne; Walbridge, Mark R.; Kugler, Daniel (Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2008)

Assessing vulnerability: An integrated approach for mapping adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure - Margles Weis, Shawn W.; Agostini, Vera N.; Roth, Lynnette M.; Gilmer, Ben; Schill, Steven R.; Knowles, John English; Blyther, Ruth (Climatic Change, 2016)
Making decisions and efficiently allocating resources to reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities requires, among other things, an understanding of the factors that make a society vulnerable to climate and coastal hazards. One way of doing this is through the analysis of spatial data. We demonstrate how to apply GIS methods to spatially represent socioeconomic vulnerability in Grenada, a tropical small island developing state (SIDS) in the Eastern Caribbean. Our model combines spatial features representing variables of social sensitivity, community adaptive capacity, and community exposure to flooding in an integrated vulnerability index. We draw from the fields of climate change adaptation, disaster management, and poverty and development to select our variables enabling unique, cross sector, applications of our assessment. Mapping our results illustrates that vulnerability to flooding is not evenly distributed across the country and is not driven by the same factors in all areas of Grenada. This indicates a need for the implementation of different strategies in communities across Grenada to help effectively reduce vulnerability to climate and coastal hazards. The approach presented in this paper can be used to address national issues on climate change adaptation, disaster management, and poverty and development and more effectively utilize funds in order to reduce community vulnerability to natural hazards today and in the future.

Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico - Margolis, E. Q.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Swetnam, T. W. (Climatic Change, 2017)
Wildfire is increasingly a concern in the USA, where 10 million acres burned in 2015. Climate is a primary driver of wildfire, and understanding fire-climate relationships is crucial for informing fire management and modeling the effects of climate change on fire. In the southwestern USA, fire-climate relationships have been informed by tree-ring data that extend centuries prior to the onset of fire exclusion in the late 1800s. Variability in cool-season precipitation has been linked to fire occurrence, but the effects of the summer North American monsoon on fire are less understood, as are the effects of climate on fire seasonality. We use a new set of reconstructions for cool-season (October–April) and monsoon-season (July–August) moisture conditions along with a large new fire scar dataset to examine relationships between multi-seasonal climate variability, fire extent, and fire seasonality in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1599–1899 CE). Results suggest that large fires burning in all seasons are strongly influenced by the current year cool-season moisture, but fires burning mid-summer to fall are also influenced by monsoon moisture. Wet conditions several years prior to the fire year during the cool season, and to a lesser extent during the monsoon season, are also important for spring through late-summer fires. Persistent cool-season drought longer than 3 years may inhibit fires due to the lack of moisture to replenish surface fuels. This suggests that fuels may become increasingly limiting for fire occurrence in semi-arid regions that are projected to become drier with climate change.

Heat waves and rising temperatures: Human health impacts and the determinants of vulnerability - Margolis, Helene G. (Global Climate Change and Public Health, 2014)

Fierce Climate, Sacred Ground: An Ethnography of Climate Change in Shishmaref, Alaska - Marino, Elizabeth (University of Alaska Press, 2015)

Adaptation privilege and Voluntary Buyouts: Perspectives on ethnocentrism in sea level rise relocation and retreat policies in the US - Marino, Elizabeth (Global Environmental Change, 2018)
Keywords: Voluntary buyouts Adaptation Sea level rise Indigenous communities White privilege

Migration or forced displacement?: The complex choices of climate change and disaster migrants in Shishmaref, Alaska and Nanumea, Tuvalu - Marino, Elizabeth; Lazrus, Heather (Human Organization, 2015)
Keywords: migration,forced displacement,disasters,climate change

Building resilience against climate effects—A novel framework to facilitate climate readiness in public health agencies - Marinucci, Gino; Luber, George; Uejio, Christopher; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2014)

Acts of God, human influence and litigation - Marjanac, Sophie; Patton, Lindene; Thornton, James (Nature Geoscience, 2017)

Emerging legal and institutional responses to sea-level rise in Florida and beyond - Markell, David L (Columbia Journal of Environmental Law, 2016)

World Heritage and Tourism in a Changing Climate - Markham, Adam; Osipova, Elena; Lafrenz Samuels, Kathryn; Caldas, Astrid (UNESCO and UNEP, 2016)
ISBN UNEP: 978-92-807-3573-4 ISBN UNESCO: 978-92-3-100152-9
Keywords: added by ERG

Alaska - Markon, C.; Gray, S.; Berman, M.; Eerkes-Medrano, L.; Hennessy, T.; Huntington, H.; Littell, J.; McCammon, M.; Thoman, R.; Traino, S. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Possible effects of vaccination and environmental changes on the presence of disease in northern Spanish fish farms - Márquez, Isabel; García-Vázquez, Eva; Borrell, Yaisel J. (Aquaculture, 2014)
Keywords: Vaccinations Disease evolution

Advancing Best Practices for the Formulation of Localized Sea Level Rise/Coastal Inundation Extremes' Scenarios for Military Installations in the Pacific Islands - Marra, John; Merrifield, Mark; Sweet, William (Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), 2015)

State of Environmental Conditions in Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Under a Changing Climate: 2017 - Marra, John J.; Kruk, Michael C. (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2017)

Influences of climatic and population changes on heat-related mortality in Houston, Texas, USA - Marsha, A.; Sain, S. R.; Heaton, M. J.; Monaghan, A. J.; Wilhelmi, O.V. (Climatic Change, 2016)
Extreme heat is a significant public health challenge in urban environments that disproportionally impacts vulnerable members of society. In this research, demographic, economic and climate projections are brought together with a statistical approach linking extreme heat and mortality in Houston, Texas. The sensitivity of heat-related non-accidental mortality to future changes of demographics, income and climate is explored. We compare climate change outcomes associated with two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which describe alternate future scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations. For each RCP, we explore demographic and economic scenarios for two plausible Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Our findings suggest that non-accidental mortality in 2061–2080 may increase for all combinations of RCP and SSP scenarios compared to a historical reference period spanning 1991–2010. Notably, increased heat-related non-accidental mortality is associated with changes in the size and age of the population, but the degree of sensitivity is highly uncertain given the breadth of plausible socioeconomic scenarios. Beyond socioeconomic changes, climate change is also important. For each socioeconomic scenario, non-accidental mortality associated with the lower emissions RCP4.5 scenario is projected to be 50 % less than mortality projected under the higher emissions RCP8.5 scenario.

The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather - Marshall, Curtis H.; Pielke Sr., Roger A.; Steyaert, Louis T.; Willard, Debra A. (Monthly Weather Review, 2004)

Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Adaptation in the U.S. Fieldcrop Sector - Marshall, Elizabeth; Aillery, Marcel; Malcolm, Scott; Williams, Ryan (USDA Economic Research Service, 2015)

Stream hydrology limits recovery of riparian ecosystems after wolf reintroduction - Marshall, Kristin N.; Hobbs, N. Thompson; Cooper, David J. (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2013)
Efforts to restore ecosystems often focus on reintroducing apex predators to re-establish coevolved relationships among predators, herbivores and plants. The preponderance of evidence for indirect effects of predators on terrestrial plant communities comes from ecosystems where predators have been removed. Far less is known about the consequences of their restoration. The effects of removal and restoration are unlikely to be symmetrical because removing predators can create feedbacks that reinforce the effects of predator loss. Observational studies have suggested that the reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park initiated dramatic restoration of riparian ecosystems by releasing willows from excessive browsing by elk. Here, we present results from a decade-long experiment in Yellowstone showing that moderating browsing alone was not sufficient to restore riparian zones along small streams. Instead, restoration of willow communities depended on removing browsing and restoring hydrological conditions that prevailed before the removal of wolves. The 70-year absence of predators from the ecosystem changed the disturbance regime in a way that was not reversed by predator reintroduction. We conclude that predator restoration may not quickly repair effects of predator removal in ecosystems.

Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: Ecosystem model projections - Marshall, Kristin N.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Hodgson, Emma E.; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D. Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E.; Harvey, Chris J.; Fulton, Elizabeth A. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: California Current climate change ecosystem model fisheries ocean acidification risk assessment

Understanding social resilience to climate variability in primary enterprises and industries - Marshall, N. A. (Global Environmental Change, 2010)
Keywords: Climate change Adaptive capacity Adoption Decision-making Seasonal climate forecasts Vulnerability

Understanding variability in adaptive capacity on rangelands - Marshall, Nadine A.; Smajgl, Alex (Rangeland Ecology & Management, 2013)
Keywords: cattle industry practice change social resilience social typologies sustainable practices vulnerability

Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management - Martin, Julien; Runge, Michael C.; Nichols, James D.; Lubow, Bruce C.; Kendall, William L. (Ecological Applications, 2009)
Keywords: adaptive resource management ecological thresholds patch occupancy models stochastic dynamic programming structured decision making

Historical Annotated Review of Winter Kills of Marine Organisms in Texas Bays - Martin, Joe H.; McEachron, Lawrence W. (Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, Coastal Fisheries Division, 1996)

Focus on agriculture and forestry benefits of reducing climate change impacts - Martinich, Jeremy; Crimmins, Allison; Beach, Robert H.; Thomson, Allison; McFarland, James (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)

Reducing Risks Through Emissions Mitigation - Martinich, J.; DeAngelo, B.J.; Diaz, D.; Ekwurzel, B.; Franco, G.; Frisch, C.; McFarland, J.; O’Neill, B. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Risks of sea level rise to disadvantaged communities in the United States - Martinich, J.; Neumann, J.; Ludwig, L.; Jantarasami, L. (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2013)

Trade-offs across value-domains in ecosystem services assessment - Martín-López, Berta; Gómez-Baggethun, Erik; García-Llorente, Marina; Montes, Carlos (Ecological Indicators, 2014)
Keywords: Indicators Quantitative evaluation Social–ecological system Trade-offs Value-articulating institutions Value pluralism

Combined effects of elevated [CO2] and high temperature on leaf mineral balance in Coffea spp. plants - Martins, Lima D.; Tomaz, Marcelo A.; Lidon, Fernando C.; DaMatta, Fábio M.; Ramalho, José C. (Climatic Change, 2014)
Modelling studies predicted that climate change will have strong impacts on the coffee crop, although no information on the effective impact of elevated CO2 on this plant exists. Here, we aim at providing a first glimpse on the effect of the combined impact of enhanced [CO2] and high temperature on the leaf mineral content and balance on this important tropical crop. Potted plants from two genotypes of Coffea arabica (cv. Icatu and IPR 108) and one from C. canephora (cv. Conilon Clone 153) were grown under 380 or 700 μL CO2 L−1 air, for 1 year, after which were exposed to an stepwise increase in temperature from 25/20 °C (day/night) up to 42/34 °C, over 8 weeks. Leaf macro − (N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S) and micronutrients (B, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) concentrations were analyzed at 25/20 °C (control), 31/25 °C, 37/30 °C and 42/34 °C. At the control temperature, the 700 μL L−1 grown plants showed a moderate dilution effect (between 7 % and 25 %) in CL 153 (for N, Mg, Ca, Fe) and Icatu (for N, K and Fe), but not in IPR 108 (except for Fe) when compared to the 380 μL L−1 plants. For temperatures higher than control most nutrients tended to increase, frequently presenting maximal contents at 42/34 °C (or 37/30 °C), although the relation between [CO2] treatments did not appreciably change. Such increases offset the few dilution effects observed under high growth [CO2] at 25/20 °C. No clear species responses were found considering [CO2] and temperature impacts, although IPR 108 seemed less sensitive to [CO2]. Despite the changes promoted by [CO2] and heat, the large majority of mineral ratios were kept within a range considered adequate, suggesting that this plant can maintain mineral balances in a context of climate changes and global warming.

Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings - Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa S. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Diarrheal illness detected through syndromic surveillance after a massive power outage: New York City, August 2003 - Marx, Melissa A.; Rodriguez, Carla V.; Greenko, Jane; Das, Debjani; Heffernan, Richard; Karpati, Adam M.; Mostashari, Farzad; Balter, Sharon; Layton, Marcelle; Weiss, Don (American Journal of Public Health, 2006)
Ch6

Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes - Marzeion, Ben; Cogley, J. Graham; Richter, Kristin; Parkes, David (Science, 2014)
Humans are now the biggest cause of glacier melting. Until recently, that was not true. Glaciers take a long time—decades to centuries—to respond to the environmental changes that control their sizes. They have been retreating gradually from the peak levels they reached in the middle of the 19th century, at the end of a 500-year-long cold period called the Little Ice Age. Marzeion et al. show that that has recently changed though, as climate warming has continued: Over the past 20 or so years, the anthropogenic contribution to glacial mass loss has increased markedly (see the Perspective by Marshall).Science, this issue p. 919; see also p. 872 The ongoing global glacier retreat is affecting human societies by causing sea-level rise, changing seasonal water availability, and increasing geohazards. Melting glaciers are an icon of anthropogenic climate change. However, glacier response times are typically decades or longer, which implies that the present-day glacier retreat is a mixed response to past and current natural climate variability and current anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that only 25 ± 35% of the global glacier mass loss during the period from 1851 to 2010 is attributable to anthropogenic causes. Nevertheless, the anthropogenic signal is detectable with high confidence in glacier mass balance observations during 1991 to 2010, and the anthropogenic fraction of global glacier mass loss during that period has increased to 69 ± 24%.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/345/6199/919.full.pdf

Singapore’s Second National Climate Change Study—Phase 1 - Marzin, Charline; Rahmat, Raizan; Bernie, Dan; Bricheno, Lucy; Buonomo, Erasmo; Calvert, Daley; Cannaby, Heather; Chan, Steven; Chattopadhyay, Mohar; Cheong, Wee-Kiong; Hassim, Muhammad Eeqmal; Gohar, Laila; et al. (Meteorological Service Singapore, 2015)

Climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation behavior among midwestern U.S. crop farmers - Mase, Amber Saylor; Gramig, Benjamin M.; Prokopy, Linda Stalker (Climate Risk Management, 2017)
Keywords: Agriculture Risk management Climate change Adaptation behavior

Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes - Mason, Lacey A.; Riseng, Catherine M.; Gronewold, Andrew D.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Wang, Jia; Clites, Anne; Smith, Sigrid D. P.; McIntyre, Peter B. (Climatic Change, 2016)
The effects of climate change on north temperate freshwater ecosystems include increasing water temperatures and decreasing ice cover. Here we compare those trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes at three spatial scales to evaluate how warming varies across the surface of these massive inland water bodies. We compiled seasonal ice cover duration (1973–2013) and lake summer surface water temperatures (LSSWT; 1994–2013), and analyzed spatial patterns and trends at lake-wide, lake sub-basin, and fine spatial scales and compared those to reported lake- and basin-wide trends. At the lake-wide scale we found declining ice duration and warming LSSWT patterns consistent with previous studies. At the lake sub-basin scale, our statistical models identified distinct warming trends within each lake that included significant breakpoints in ice duration for 13 sub-basins, consistent linear declines in 11 sub-basins, and no trends in 4 sub-basins. At the finest scale, we found that the northern- and eastern-most portions of each Great Lake, especially in nearshore areas, have experienced faster rates of LSSWT warming and shortening ice duration than those previously reported from trends at the lake scale. We conclude that lake-level analyses mask significant spatial and temporal variation in warming patterns within the Laurentian Great Lakes. Recognizing spatial variability in rates of change can inform both mechanistic modeling of ecosystem responses and planning for long-term management of these large freshwater ecosystems.

StormSmart Coasts Program [web site] - Massachusetts CZM (Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM), 2018)

Climate Action Tool [web site] - Massachusetts Wildlife (University of Massachusetts Amherst, 2017)

Adapting cities to climate change: A systemic modelling approach - Masson, V.; Marchadier, C.; Adolphe, L.; Aguejdad, R.; Avner, P.; Bonhomme, M.; Bretagne, G.; Briottet, X.; Bueno, B.; de Munck, C.; Doukari, O.; Hallegatte, S.; et al. (Urban Climate, 2014)
Keywords: Systemic modelling Urban Heat Island Adaptation Cities Climate Change

Information from paleoclimate archives - Masson-Delmotte, V.; Schulz, M.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Beer, J.; Ganopolski, A.; González Rouco, J.F.; Jansen, E.; Lambeck, K.; Luterbacher, J.; Naish, T.; Osborn, T.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; et al. (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

Simulated Interaction Between Freshwater and Saltwater and Effects of Ground-Water Pumping and Sea-Level Change, Lower Cape Cod Aquifer System, Massachusetts - Masterson, John P. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2004)

Effects of sea-level rise on barrier island groundwater system dynamics—Ecohydrological implications - Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Thieler, E. Robert; Gesch, Dean B.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G. (Ecohydrology, 2014)
Keywords: groundwater barrier islands sea-level rise vadose zone salinity ecohydrology vegetation distribution

Assessment of Groundwater Availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain Aquifer System From Long Island, New York, to North Carolina - Masterson, John P.; Pope, Jason P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Monti, Jack, Jr.; Nardi, Mark R.; Finkelstein, Jason S. (US Geological Survey, 2016)
ISBN: 978-1-4113-4057-2

Changes in spring snowpack for selected basins in the United States for different climate-change scenarios - Mastin, Mark C.; Chase, Katherine J.; Dudley, R. W. (Earth Interactions, 2011)
Spring snowpack is an important water resource in many river basins in the United States in areas where snowmelt comprises a large part of the annual runoff. Increasing temperatures will likely reduce snowpacks in the future, resulting in more winter runoff and less available water during the summer low-flow season. As part of the National Climate Change Modeling Project by the U.S. Geological Survey, distributed watershed-model output was analyzed to characterize areal extent and water-equivalent volumes of spring snowpack for a warming climate. The output from seven selected watershed models from the mountainous western United States and one model from coastal Maine in the northeastern United States shows a future of declining spring snowpack. Snow-cover area (SCA) and snow-water equivalent (SWE) were used to compare the spring snowpack for current conditions (2006) with three time periods in the future (2030, 2060, and 2090) using three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios published in the 2007 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, B1, and A1B. Distributed SWE and SCA values were sorted into elevation zones in each basin. The change in spring snowpack over time was greater than the change among different emission scenarios, suggesting that, even for a globally reduced carbon emission scenario, large decreases in SWE are likely to occur. The SRES A2 scenario resulted in the greatest decrease in SWE for six of the basins, and the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios resulted in the greatest decrease in one basin each.
Keywords: Climate change,Snow-water equivalent,Watershed modeling

Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties - Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Field, Christopher B.; Stocker, Thomas F.; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frame, David J.; Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Mach, Katharine J.; Matschoss, Patrick R.; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Yohe, Gary W.; et al. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2010)

An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 W m−2 radiative forcing - Masui, Toshihiko; Matsumoto, Kenichi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Nozawa, Toru; Ishiwatari, Sawako; Kato, Etsushi; Shukla, P. R.; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Kainuma, Mikiko (Climatic Change, 2011)
Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), short-lived species, and land-use/land-cover change leading to a stabilisation of radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm−2) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years. Simulated with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), GHG emissions of RCP6 peak around 2060 and then decline through the rest of the century. The energy intensity improvement rates changes from 0.9% per year to 1.5% per year around 2060. Emissions are assumed to be reduced cost-effectively in any period through a global market for emissions permits. The exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem through photosynthesis and respiration are estimated with the ecosystem model. The regional emissions, except CO2 and N2O, are downscaled to facilitate transfer to climate models.

Climate change projection for the western tropical Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution ocean model: Implications for tuna fisheries - Matear, Richard J.; Chamberlain, M. A.; Sun, C.; Feng, Ming (Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2015)
Keywords: Pacific Ocean climate projections marine ecosystems impact fisheries circulation

Introduction to this special issue on ocean acidification: The pathway from science to policy - Mathis, Jeremy T.; Cooley, Sarah R.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Williamson, Phillip (Oceanography, 2015)

Coupling primary production and terrestrial runoff to ocean acidification and carbonate mineral suppression in the eastern Bering Sea - Mathis, J.T.; Cross, J.N.; Bates, N.R. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011)
Water column pH and carbonate mineral saturation states were calculated from dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity data collected over the eastern Bering Sea shelf in the spring and summer of 2008. The saturation states (Ω) of the two most important carbonate minerals, calcite (Ωcalcite) and aragonite (Ωaragonite) were strongly coupled to terrestrial runoff from the Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers, primary production in the surface waters, and remineralization of organic matter at depth over the shelf. In spring, before ice melt occurred, pH over the shelf was largely confined to a range of 7.9–8.1 and Ωcalcite and Ωaragonite ranged from 1.5 to 3.0 and 0.8 to 2.0, respectively. At the stations closest to river outflows, aragonite was undersaturated in the water column from the surface to the bottom. During the summer sea ice retreat, high rates of primary production consumed DIC in the mixed layer, which increased pH and Ωcalcite and Ωaragonite. However, Ωcalcite and Ωaragonite decreased by ∼0.3 in the bottom waters over the middle and outer shelf. Over the northern shelf, where export production is highest, Ωaragonite decreased by ∼0.35 and became highly undersaturated. The observed suppression and undersaturation of Ωcalcite and Ωaragonite in the eastern Bering Sea are correlated with anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake into the ocean and will likely be exacerbated under business-as-usual emission scenarios. Therefore, ocean acidification could threaten some benthic and pelagic calcifying organisms across the Bering Sea shelf in the coming decades.
Keywords: Bering Sea; ocean acidification; carbon biogeochemistry; carbonate mineral saturation states

Ocean acidification in the surface waters of the Pacific–Arctic boundary regions - Mathis, J.T.; Cross, J.N.; Evans, W.; Doney, S.C. (Oceanography, 2015)

Storm-induced upwelling of high pCO2 waters onto the continental shelf of the western Arctic Ocean and implications for carbonate mineral saturation states - Mathis, Jeremy T.; Pickart, Robert S.; Byrne, Robert H.; McNeil, Craig L.; Moore, G. W. K.; Juranek, Laurie W.; Liu, Xuewu; Ma, Jian; Easley, Regina A.; Elliot, Matthew M.; Cross, Jessica N.; Reisdorph, Stacey C.; et al. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2012)
Keywords: Arctic Ocean CO2 fluxes ocean acidification upwelling 4504 Air/sea interactions 4540 Ice mechanics and air/sea/ice exchange processes 4806 Carbon cycling 4835 Marine inorganic chemistry

Investigating the impact of climate change on New York City’s primary water supply - Matonse, Adão H.; Pierson, Donald C.; Frei, Allan; Zion, Mark S.; Anandhi, Aavudai; Schneiderman, Elliot; Wright, Ben (Climatic Change, 2013)
Future climate scenarios projected by three different General Circulation Models and a delta-change methodology are used as input to the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions – Variable Source Area (GWLF-VSA) watershed model to simulate future inflows to reservoirs that are part of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS). These inflows are in turn used as part of the NYC OASIS model designed to simulate operations for the NYCWSS. In this study future demands and operation rules are assumed stationary and future climate variability is based on historical data to which change factors were applied in order to develop the future scenarios. Our results for the West of Hudson portion of the NYCWSS suggest that future climate change will impact regional hydrology on a seasonal basis. The combined effect of projected increases in winter air temperatures, increased winter rain, and earlier snowmelt results in more runoff occurring during winter and slightly less runoff in early spring, increased spring and summer evapotranspiration, and reduction in number of days the system is under drought conditions. At subsystem level reservoir storages, water releases and spills appear to be higher and less variable during the winter months and are slightly reduced during summer. Under the projected future climate and assumptions in this study the NYC reservoir system continues to show high resilience, high annual reliability and relatively low vulnerability.

Excess mortality attributable to extreme heat in New York City, 1997-2013 - Matte, Thomas D.; Lane, Kathryn; Ito, Kazuhiko (Health Security, 2016)
Extreme heat event excess mortality has been estimated statistically to assess impacts, evaluate heat emergency response, and project climate change risks. We estimated annual excess non–external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events in New York City (NYC). Extreme heat events were defined as days meeting current National Weather Service forecast criteria for issuing heat advisories in NYC based on observed maximum daily heat index values from LaGuardia Airport. Outcomes were daily non–external-cause death counts for NYC residents from May through September from 1997 to 2013 (n = 337,162). The cumulative relative risk (CRR) of death associated with extreme heat events was estimated in a Poisson time-series model for each year using an unconstrained distributed lag for days 0-3 accommodating over dispersion, and adjusting for within-season trends and day of week. Attributable death counts were computed by year based on individual year CRRs. The pooled CRR per extreme heat event day was 1.11 (95%CI 1.08-1.14). The estimated annual excess non–external-cause deaths attributable to heat waves ranged from –14 to 358, with a median of 121. Point estimates of heat wave–attributable deaths were greater than 0 in all years but one and were correlated with the number of heat wave days (r = 0.81). Average excess non–external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events were nearly 11-fold greater than hyperthermia deaths. Estimated extreme heat event–associated excess deaths may be a useful indicator of the impact of extreme heat events, but single-year estimates are currently too imprecise to identify short-term changes in risk.

Managing for delicious ecosystem service under climate change: Can United States sugar maple (Acer saccharum) syrup production be maintained in a warming climate? - Matthews, Stephen N.; Iverson, Louis R. (International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management, 2017)

Climate Impacts Vulnerability Assessment - Mauerer, Mark; Roalkvam, Carol Lee; Salisbury, Sandra L.; Goss, Elizabeth; Gabel, Mark; Johnson, Tanya (Washington State Department of Transportation, Vulnerability Assessment Team, 2011)

Impacts of climate change on milk production in the United States - Mauger, Guillaume; Bauman, Yoram; Nennich, Tamilee; Salathé, Eric (Professional Geographer, 2015)

State of Knowledge: Climate Change in Puget Sound - Mauger, Guillaume S.; Casola, Joseph H.; Morgan, Harriet A.; Strauch, Ronda L.; Jones, Brittany; Curry, Beth; Busch Isaksen, Tania M.; Whitely Binder, Lara; Krosby, Meade B.; Snover, Amy K. (University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group, 2015)

Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2010 - Maupin, Molly A.; Kenny, Joan F.; Hutson, Susan S.; Lovelace, John K.; Barber, Nancy L.; Linsey, Kristin S. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2014)

The utility of daily large-scale climate data in the assessment of climate change impacts on daily streamflow in California - Maurer, E.P.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R. (Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences, 2010)

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Priority Wildlife Species - Mawdsley, Jonathan; Lamb, Rachel (The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment for the Navajo Nation Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2013)

Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities - Maxwell, K.; Julius, S.; Grambsch, A.; Kosmal, A.; Larson, L.; Sonti, N. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Dynamic ocean management: Defining and conceptualizing real-time management of the ocean - Maxwell, Sara M.; Hazen, Elliott L.; Lewison, Rebecca L.; Dunn, Daniel C.; Bailey, Helen; Bograd, Steven J.; Briscoe, Dana K.; Fossette, Sabrina; Hobday, Alistair J.; Bennett, Meredith; Benson, Scott; Caldwell, Margaret R.; et al. (Marine Policy, 2015)
Keywords: Adaptive management Fisheries management Marine spatial planning Mobile marine protected areas Real-time management Shipping

Northwest - May, K.; Luce, C.; Casola, J.; Chang, M.; Cuhaciyan, J.; Dalton, M.; Lowe, S.; Morishima, G.; Mote, P.; Petersen, A.; Roesch-McNally, G.; York, E. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Inequalities in dementia incidence between six racial and ethnic groups over 14 years - Mayeda, Elizabeth Rose; Glymour, M. Maria; Quesenberry, Charles P.; Whitmer, Rachel A. (Alzheimer's & Dementia, 2016)
Keywords: Dementia Race Ethnicity Disparities Cohort Epidemiology

Native Peoples–Native Homelands Climate Change Workshop II. Final Report: An Indigenous Response to Climate Change - Maynard, Nancy G. (NASA, 2014)

Increasing phenological asynchrony between spring green-up and arrival of migratory birds - Mayor, Stephen J.; Guralnick, Robert P.; Tingley, Morgan W.; Otegui, Javier; Withey, John C.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Andrew, Margaret E.; Leyk, Stefan; Pearse, Ian S.; Schneider, David C. (Scientific Reports, 2017)
Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west—where green-up typically became later—birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences.

U.S. Mayors' Report on a Decade of Global Climate Leadership: Selected Mayor Profiles - Mayors' Climate Protection Center (The United States Conference of Mayors, 2015)

The Growth of Biological Thought: Diversity, Evolution, and Inheritance - Mayr, Ernst (Belknap Press, 1982)

Extreme weather and civil war: Does drought fuel conflict in Somalia through livestock price shocks? - Maystadt, Jean-François; Ecker, Olivier (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2014)
A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within-country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.
10.1093/ajae/aau010

Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States - Mazdiyasni, Omid; AghaKouchak, Amir (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
A combination of climate events (e.g., low precipitation and high temperatures) may cause a significant impact on the ecosystem and society, although individual events involved may not be severe extremes themselves. Analyzing historical changes in concurrent climate extremes is critical to preparing for and mitigating the negative effects of climatic change and variability. This study focuses on the changes in concurrences of heatwaves and meteorological droughts from 1960 to 2010. Despite an apparent hiatus in rising temperature and no significant trend in droughts, we show a substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves across most parts of the United States, and a statistically significant shift in the distribution of concurrent extremes. Although commonly used trend analysis methods do not show any trend in concurrent droughts and heatwaves, a unique statistical approach discussed in this study exhibits a statistically significant change in the distribution of the data.

Species-specific phenological responses to winter temperature and precipitation in a water-limited ecosystem - Mazer, Susan J.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Matthews, Elizabeth R.; Evenden, Angela (Ecosphere, 2015)
Keywords: Baccharis pilularis California Phenology Project citizen science climate change Eriogonum fasciculatum first flowering date phenology phenological response phenophase Quercus lobata Sambucus nigra USA National Phenology Network