Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act

National Goals and Performance Management Measures

2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (U.S. Census Bureau)

Food Security Act of 1985 (1985)

Global Change Research Act of 1990 (1990)

Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (2007)

Sandy Recovery Improvement Act of 2013 (2013)

Hearing on the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (House of Representatives, Committee on Armed Services, 2014)

Hawaii Climate Adaptation Initiative Act (H.B. No. 1714) (2014)

Public hearing: The state of rural infrastructure (House Committee on Agriculture, 2017)

Commuting in America 2013 - AASHTO (American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), 2013)

Commonality among unique indigenous communities: An introduction to climate change and its impacts on Indigenous Peoples - Abate, Randall S.; Kronk Warner, Elizabeth Ann (Tulane Environmental Law Journal, 2013)

Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples: The Search for Legal Remedies - Abate, Randall S.; Kronk Warner, Elizabeth Ann (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2013)
Indigenous peoples occupy a unique niche within the climate justice movement, as many indigenous communities live subsistence lifestyles that are severely disrupted by the effects of climate change. Additionally, in many parts of the world, domestic law is applied differently to indigenous peoples than it is to their non-indigenous peers, further complicating the quest for legal remedies. The contributors to this book bring a range of expert legal perspectives to this complex discussion, offering both a comprehensive explanation of climate change-related problems faced by indigenous communities and a breakdown of various real world attempts to devise workable legal solutions. Regions covered include North and South America (Brazil, Canada, the US and the Arctic), the Pacific Islands (Fiji, Tuvalu and the Federated States of Micronesia), Australia and New Zealand, Asia (China and Nepal) and Africa (Kenya).

Influence of the PNA on declining mountain snowpack in the Western United States - Abatzoglou, John T. (International Journal of Climatology, 2011)
Keywords: climate variability climate change hydrology snow Western United States

Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States - Abatzoglou, John T.; Kolden, Crystal A. (International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2013)
Increased wildfire activity (e.g. number of starts, area burned, fire behaviour) across the western United States in recent decades has heightened interest in resolving climate–fire relationships. Macroscale climate–fire relationships were examined in forested and non-forested lands for eight Geographic Area Coordination Centers in the western United States, using area burned derived from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity dataset (1984–2010). Fire-specific biophysical variables including fire danger and water balance metrics were considered in addition to standard climate variables of monthly temperature, precipitation and drought indices to explicitly determine their optimal capacity to explain interannual variability in area burned. Biophysical variables tied to the depletion of fuel and soil moisture and prolonged periods of elevated fire-danger had stronger correlations to area burned than standard variables antecedent to or during the fire season, particularly in forested systems. Antecedent climate–fire relationships exhibited inter-region commonality with area burned in forested lands correlated with winter snow water equivalent and emergent drought in late spring. Area burned in non-forested lands correlated with moisture availability in the growing season preceding the fire year. Despite differences in the role of antecedent climate in preconditioning fuels, synchronous regional fire activity in forested and non-forested lands suggests that atmospheric conditions during the fire season unify fire activity and can compound or supersede antecedent climatic stressors. Collectively, climate–fire relationships viewed through the lens of biophysical variables provide a more direct link to fuel flammability and wildfire activity than standard climate variables, thereby narrowing the gap in incorporating top-down climatic factors between empirical and process-based fire models.
Keywords: fire danger, management, modelling.

Climatic influences on interannual variability in regional burn severity across western US forests - Abatzoglou, John T.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Williams, A. Park; Lutz, James A.; Smith, Alistair M. S. (International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2017)
Interannual variability in burn severity is assessed across forested ecoregions of the western United States to understand how it is influenced by variations in area burned and climate during 1984–2014. Strong correlations (|r| > 0.6) between annual area burned and climate metrics were found across many of the studied regions. The burn severity of individual fires and fire seasons was weakly, but significantly (P < 0.05), correlated with burned area across many regions. Interannual variability in fuel dryness evaluated with fuel aridity metrics demonstrated weak-to-moderate (|r| >0.4) relationships with regional burn severity, congruent with but weaker than those between climate and area burned for most ecoregions. These results collectively suggest that irrespective of other factors, long-term increases in fuel aridity will lead to increased burn severity in western United States forests for existing vegetation regimes.
Keywords: climate, fire effects.

Seasonal climate variability and change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States - Abatzoglou, John T.; Rupp, David E.; Mote, Philip W. (Journal of Climate, 2014)
Observed changes in climate of the U.S. Pacific Northwest since the early twentieth century were examined using four different datasets. Annual mean temperature increased by approximately 0.6°–0.8°C from 1901 to 2012, with corroborating indicators including a lengthened freeze-free season, increased temperature of the coldest night of the year, and increased growing-season potential evapotranspiration. Seasonal temperature trends over shorter time scales (<50 yr) were variable. Despite increased warming rates in most seasons over the last half century, nonsignificant cooling was observed during spring from 1980 to 2012. Observations show a long-term increase in spring precipitation; however, decreased summer and autumn precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration have resulted in larger climatic water deficits over the past four decades. A bootstrapped multiple linear regression model was used to better resolve the temporal heterogeneity of seasonal temperature and precipitation trends and to apportion trends to internal climate variability, solar variability, volcanic aerosols, and anthropogenic forcing. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific–North American pattern were the primary modulators of seasonal temperature trends on multidecadal time scales: solar and volcanic forcing were nonsignificant predictors and contributed weakly to observed trends. Anthropogenic forcing was a significant predictor of, and the leading contributor to, long-term warming; natural factors alone fail to explain the observed warming. Conversely, poor model skill for seasonal precipitation suggests that other factors need to be considered to understand the sources of seasonal precipitation trends.
Keywords: North America,Climate change,Climate variability,Time series

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests - Abatzoglou, John T.; Williams, A. Park (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Global agricultural intensification during climate change: A role for genomics - Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; Costa de Oliveira, Antonio; Cseke, Leland J.; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; et al. (Plant Biotechnology Journal, 2016)
Keywords: climate change food security sustainability

Almond Almanac 2016: Annual Report - ABC (Almond Board of California (ABC), 2016)

Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming - Abe, M.; Nozawa, T.; Ogura, T.; Takata, K. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2016)
ACP

Building resilient supply chains against natural disasters: The cases of Japan and Thailand - Abe, Masato; Ye, Linghe (Global Business Review, 2013)
Emerging global supply chains not only increased efficiency in production and delivery but also natural-disaster risks. Based on two recent major natural disasters in Japan and Thailand, this article discusses the increasing natural disaster risks due to the development of global supply chains and identifies the impact of natural disasters on global supply chains. The results indicate that the risk of natural disasters is not confined by geographical boundaries, as negative effects can spill over globally throughout the supply chains and affect all the entities involved including firms, governments, financial institutions and end consumers. The article argues that enhancing disaster resilience becomes increasingly important in this context for maintaining the competitiveness of firms and the health and strength of the whole economy. Both firms and governments need to take disaster risks into consideration in supply-chain management to avoid supply-chain disruptions and subsequent negative effects. The article proposes some strategies to build resilient supply chains against natural disasters, emphasizing collaboration between the public and private sectors.
Keywords: Natural disaster risk,global supply chain,resilience,supply chain management,disruption,Japanese firm,Thailand

Northeast warming more rapidly than most of US - Abel, David (Boston Globe, 2017)

Potential air quality benefits from increased solar photovoltaic electricity generation in the Eastern United States - Abel, David; Holloway, Tracey; Harkey, Monica; Rrushaj, Arber; Brinkman, Greg; Duran, Phillip; Janssen, Mark; Denholm, Paul (Atmospheric Environment, 2018)
Keywords: Solar energy Air quality Particulate matter PM Electricity Renewable energy Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) GridView Co-benefits Public health Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) AVoided Emissions and geneRation Tool (AVERT)

Response of power plant emissions to ambient temperature in the eastern United States - Abel, David; Holloway, Tracey; Kladar, Ryan M.; Meier, Paul; Ahl, Doug; Harkey, Monica; Patz, Jonathan (Environmental Science & Technology, 2017)

Assessing the Vulnerability of Tennessee Transportation Assets to Extreme Weather - Abkowitz, Mark; Camp, Janey; Dundon, Leah (3 Sigma Consultants for Tennessee Department of Transportation, 2015)

Evaluating the performance of land surface models - Abramowitz, Gab; Leuning, Ray; Clark, Martyn; Pitman, Andy (Journal of Climate, 2008)
This paper presents a set of analytical tools to evaluate the performance of three land surface models (LSMs) that are used in global climate models (GCMs). Predictions of the fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat, and net CO2 exchange obtained using process-based LSMs are benchmarked against two statistical models that only use incoming solar radiation, air temperature, and specific humidity as inputs to predict the fluxes. Both are then compared to measured fluxes at several flux stations located on three continents. Parameter sets used for the LSMs include default values used in GCMs for the plant functional type and soil type surrounding each flux station, locally calibrated values, and ensemble sets encompassing combinations of parameters within their respective uncertainty ranges. Performance of the LSMs is found to be generally inferior to that of the statistical models across a wide variety of performance metrics, suggesting that the LSMs underutilize the meteorological information used in their inputs and that model complexity may be hindering accurate prediction. The authors show that model evaluation is purpose specific; good performance in one metric does not guarantee good performance in others. Self-organizing maps are used to divide meteorological “‘forcing space” into distinct regions as a mechanism to identify the conditions under which model bias is greatest. These new techniques will aid modelers to identify the areas of model structure responsible for poor performance.
Keywords: Land surface,Model evaluation/performance,Climate models,Forcing,Carbon dioxide

Effect of fire prevention programs on accidental and incendiary wildfires on tribal lands in the United States - Abt, Karen L.; Butry, David T.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Scranton, Samuel (International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2015)
Humans cause more than 55% of wildfires on lands managed by the USDA Forest Service and US Department of the Interior, contributing to both suppression expenditures and damages. One means to reduce the expenditures and damages associated with these wildfires is through fire prevention activities, which can include burn permits, public service programs or announcements, outreach efforts to schools, youth groups and equipment operators, and law enforcement. Using data from 17 US Bureau of Indian Affairs tribal units, we modelled the effect of prevention programs and law enforcement on the number of human-caused ignitions. We also included weather and lagged burned area in our estimation of fixed-effects count models. The results show that prevention activities led to significant reductions in wildfires caused by escaped campfires, juveniles, fire-use (e.g. escaped debris burns) and equipment. Increased law enforcement resulted in fewer incendiary- and equipment-caused wildfires. Using average suppression expenditures by wildfire and our estimate of avoided wildfires per additional year of prevention, we estimate partial benefit–cost ratios of greater than 4.5 for all Bureau of Indian Affairs regions for the continuation of the prevention program.
Keywords: arson wildfires, instrumental variables methods, intervention analysis, law enforcement, wildfire suppression.

APC Board allocates $25 million in HMGP funding to regional flood mitigation projects - Acadiana Planning Commission (2018)

Caribbean Small States: Challenges of High Debt and Low Growth - Acevedo, Sebastian; Cebotari, Aliona; Turner-Jones, Therese (International Monetary Fund, 2013)

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment - ACIA (ACIA Secretariat and Cooperative Institute for Arctic Research, 2005)

A geographic mosaic of climate change impacts on terrestrial vegetation: Which areas are most at risk? - Ackerly, David D.; Cornwell, William K.; Weiss, Stuart B.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L. (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions.

Arctic shrub growth trajectories differ across soil moisture levels - Ackerman, Daniel; Griffin, Daniel; Hobbie, Sarah E.; Finlay, Jacques C. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
The circumpolar expansion of woody deciduous shrubs in arctic tundra alters key ecosystem properties including carbon balance and hydrology. However, landscape‐scale patterns and drivers of shrub expansion remain poorly understood, inhibiting accurate incorporation of shrub effects into climate models. Here, we use dendroecology to elucidate the role of soil moisture in modifying the relationship between climate and growth for a dominant deciduous shrub, Salix pulchra, on the North Slope of Alaska, USA. We improve upon previous modeling approaches by using ecological theory to guide model selection for the relationship between climate and shrub growth. Finally, we present novel dendroecology‐based estimates of shrub biomass change under a future climate regime, made possible by recently developed shrub allometry models. We find that S. pulchra growth has responded positively to mean June temperature over the past 2.5 decades at both a dry upland tundra site and an adjacent mesic riparian site. For the upland site, including a negative second‐order term in the climate–growth model significantly improved explanatory power, matching theoretical predictions of diminishing growth returns to increasing temperature. A first‐order linear model fit best at the riparian site, indicating consistent growth increases in response to sustained warming, possibly due to lack of temperature‐induced moisture limitation in mesic habitats. These contrasting results indicate that S. pulchra in mesic habitats may respond positively to a wider range of temperature increase than S. pulchra in dry habitats. Lastly, we estimate that a 2°C increase in current mean June temperature will yield a 19% increase in aboveground S. pulchra biomass at the upland site and a 36% increase at the riparian site. Our method of biomass estimation provides an important link toward incorporating dendroecology data into coupled vegetation and climate models.

Role of changes in mean temperatures versus temperature gradients in the recent widening of the Hadley circulation - Adam, Ori; Schneider, Tapio; Harnik, Nili (Journal of Climate, 2014)
The Hadley circulation (HC) has widened in recent decades, and it widens as the climate warms in simulations. But the mechanisms responsible for the widening remain unclear, and the widening in simulations is generally smaller than observed.To identify mechanisms responsible for the HC widening and for model–observation discrepancies, this study analyzes how interannual variations of tropical-mean temperatures and meridional temperature gradients influence the HC width. Changes in mean temperatures are part of any global warming signal, whereas changes in temperature gradients are primarily associated with ENSO. Within this study, 6 reanalysis datasets, 22 Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations, and 11 historical simulations from phase 5 of the Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed, covering the years 1979–2012. It is found that the HC widens as mean temperatures increase or as temperature gradients weaken in most reanalyses and climate models. On average, climate models exhibit a smaller sensitivity of HC width to changes in mean temperatures and temperature gradients than do reanalyses. However, the sensitivities differ substantially among reanalyses, rendering the HC response to mean temperatures in climate models not statistically different from that in reanalyses.While global-mean temperatures did not increase substantially between 1997 and 2012, the HC continued to widen in most reanalyses. The analysis here suggests that the HC widening from 1979 to 1997 is primarily the result of global warming, whereas the widening of the HC from 1997 to 2012 is associated with increased midlatitude temperatures and hence reduced temperature gradients during this period.
Keywords: Atmospheric circulation,Hadley circulation,Climate sensitivity,ENSO,Reanalysis data

Temperature response surfaces for mortality risk of tree species with future drought - Adams, Henry D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Minor, Rebecca L.; Gardea, Alfonso A.; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Law, Darin J.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G.; Huxman, Travis E. (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
Widespread, high levels of tree mortality, termed forest die-off, associated with drought and rising temperatures, are disrupting forests worldwide. Drought will likely become more frequent with climate change, but even without more frequent drought, higher temperatures can exacerbate tree water stress. The temperature sensitivity of drought-induced mortality of tree species has been evaluated experimentally for only single-step changes in temperature (ambient compared to ambient + increase) rather than as a response surface (multiple levels of temperature increase), which constrains our ability to relate changes in the driver with the biological response. Here we show that time-to-mortality during drought for seedlings of two western United States tree species, Pinus edulis (Engelm.) and Pinus ponderosa (Douglas ex C. Lawson), declined in continuous proportion with increasing temperature spanning a 7.7 °C increase. Although P. edulis outlived P. ponderosa at all temperatures, both species had similar relative declines in time-to-mortality as temperature increased (5.2% per °C for P. edulis ; 5.8% per °C for P. ponderosa ). When combined with the non-linear frequency distribution of drought duration—many more short droughts than long droughts—these findings point to a progressive increase in mortality events with global change due to warming alone and independent of additional changes in future drought frequency distributions. As such, dire future forest recruitment patterns are projected assuming the calculated 7–9 seedling mortality events per species by 2100 under business-as-usual warming occur, congruent with additional vulnerability predicted for adult trees from stressors like pathogens and pests. Our progressive projection for increased mortality events was driven primarily by the non-linear shape of the drought duration frequency distribution, a common climate feature of drought-affected regions. These results illustrate profound benefits for reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources and slowing warming as rapidly as possible to maximize forest persistence.

Ecohydrological consequences of drought- and infestation- triggered tree die-off: Insights and hypotheses - Adams, Henry D.; Luce, Charles H.; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Weiler, Markus; Hale, V. Cody; Smith, Alistair M. S.; Huxman, Travis E. (Ecohydrology, 2012)
Keywords: ecohydrology die-off tree mortality forest mortality evapotranspiration recharge water yield bark beetle tree pests

Ch. 2: The economic effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture - Adams, R.M.; McCarl, B.A.; Segerson, K.; Rosenzweig, C.; Bryant, K.J.; Dixon, B.L.; Conner, R.; Evenson, R.E.; Ojima, D. (The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy, 1999)

Alaska's Climate Change Strategy: Addressing Impacts in Alaska. Final Report Submitted by the Adaptation Advisory Group to the Alaska Climate Change Sub-Cabinet - Adaptation Advisory Group (Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, 2010)

[web site] - Adaptation Clearinghouse (Adaptation Clearinghouse (Georgetown Climate Center), 2017)

Adaptation Partners: Science-Management Partnerships Focused on Climate Change Adaptation in the Western United States [Web site] - Adaptation Partners (2017)

Climate Change Adaptation Library for the Western United States [web tool] - Adaptation Partners (Adaptation Partners, 2018)

UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. Synthesis Report: Priorities for the Next Five Years - Adaptation Sub-Committee (Committee on Climate Change, 2016)

The Economics of Climate Change in the Pacific - ADB (Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2013)
ISBN 978-92-9254-318-1 (Print), 978-92-9254-319-8 (PDF), 978-92-9254-328-0 (CD-ROM)

Newtok Shoreline Erosion Map - ADCCED (Alaska Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development (ADCCED), 2006)

Fuel Price Survey - ADCCED (Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development (ADCCED), 2017)

Newtok Planning Group - ADCCED (Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development (ADCCED), 2018)

Relationships among wildfire, prescribed fire, and drought in a fire-prone landscape in the south-eastern United States - Addington, Robert N.; Hudson, Stephen J.; Hiers, J. Kevin; Hurteau, Matthew D.; Hutcherson, Thomas F.; Matusick, George; Parker, James M. (International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2015)
Concern over increasing wildfire activity in the last few decades has prompted increased investment in fuels reduction treatments worldwide. Prescribed fire is a commonly used management tool for reducing fuels and modifying subsequent wildfire dynamics, yet the influence of prescribed fire on wildfire is difficult to evaluate empirically due to the often unpredictable nature of wildfire. In this study we evaluated a 30-year record of wildfire, prescribed fire and drought at Fort Benning, a 74 000-ha military training installation in west-central Georgia, USA. Annual wildfire incidence declined sharply from 1982 to 2012 as prescribed fire hectares increased. Multiple regression models including both prescribed fire and drought (assessed using the Keetch–Byram Drought Index; KBDI) explained ~80% and 54% of the variation in annual wildfire incidence and areal extent, respectively. Current- and previous-year prescribed fire were strongly inversely related to current-year wildfire, suggesting that the cumulative area burned by prescription is important in explaining current-year wildfire incidence. Wildfire activity overall (both incidence and areal extent) was highest during drought years when cumulative prescribed fire hectares were low. Our results suggest some inevitability of wildfire during drought, but also provide evidence for the positive effects of sustained landscape-scale prescribed fire in reducing wildfire activity over time.
Keywords: Fort Benning, fuels reduction, Keetch–Byram Drought Index, longleaf pine.

Alaska Water and Sewer Challenge - ADEC (Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC), 2016)

Vibrio parahaemolyticus Control Plan - ADEC (Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC), 2017)

An assessment of climate change impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) hospitals, wildfires highest priority - Adelaine, Sabrina A.; Sato, Mizuki; Jin, Yufang; Godwin, Hilary (Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 2017)
Introduction Although many studies have delineated the variety and magnitude of impacts that climate change is likely to have on health, very little is known about how well hospitals are poised to respond to these impacts. Hypothesis/Problem The hypothesis is that most modern hospitals in urban areas in the United States need to augment their current disaster planning to include climate-related impacts. Methods Using Los Angeles County (California USA) as a case study, historical data for emergency department (ED) visits and projections for extreme-heat events were used to determine how much climate change is likely to increase ED visits by mid-century for each hospital. In addition, historical data about the location of wildfires in Los Angeles County and projections for increased frequency of both wildfires and flooding related to sea-level rise were used to identify which area hospitals will have an increased risk of climate-related wildfires or flooding at mid-century. Results Only a small fraction of the total number of predicted ED visits at mid-century would likely to be due to climate change. By contrast, a significant portion of hospitals in Los Angeles County are in close proximity to very high fire hazard severity zones (VHFHSZs) and would be at greater risk to wildfire impacts as a result of climate change by mid-century. One hospital in Los Angeles County was anticipated to be at greater risk due to flooding by mid-century as a result of climate-related sea-level rise. Conclusion This analysis suggests that several Los Angeles County hospitals should focus their climate-change-related planning on building resiliency to wildfires. Adelaine SA , Sato M , Jin Y , Godwin H . An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) Hospitals, Wildfires Highest Priority. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):556–562.
Keywords: climate change hospital wildfire

Mental health & psychosocial distress sequelae of Katrina: An empirical study of survivors - Adeola, Francis O. (Human Ecology Review, 2009)
[This study focuses on mental health and psychosocial distress sequelae of Hurricane Katrina cataclysm among survivors. The purpose of this article is to: (1) assess the variation in psychosocial distress among the survivors of Katrina by socio-demographic, structural and situational factors; (2) determine if there are significant racial and gender differences in the extent of psychological stress, especially between Black and White, male and female survivors; and (3) to evaluate the influence of resource loss or financial burden imposed, social support, and perceived victimization on psychosocial distress among survivors. The Gallup/CNN/USA Today survey data collected in 2005 and 2006 from a representative (random) sample of Katrina survivors are used. Among the results, significant racial differences were found in psychological impacts including reported symptoms of sleeplessness, anxiety, depression, and worries about the future. In a series of multivariate analyses including factor analysis and OLS regression models, residency in Orleans parish prior to the storm, older age, female gender, having dependent children, unemployment, extent of property damage, and financial impacts sustained consistently predict psychological distress among the survivors. The theoretical, methodological, and applied policy implications of these findings are discussed.]

Department Teams with Kenai Natives to Enhance Kenai Moose Habitat - ADF&G (Alaska Department of Fish and Game, 2013)

Subsistence in Alaska: A Year 2014 Update - ADFG (Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG), 2014)

2016-2017 Board of Game Proposal Book - ADFG (Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG), 2017)

Successful adaptation to climate change across scales - Adger, W. Neil; Arnell, Nigel W.; Tompkins, Emma L. (Global Environmental Change, 2005)
Keywords: Adaptation Vulnerability Scenarios Sustainability Decision making

Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation - Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Brown, Katrina; Marshall, Nadine; O'Brien, Karen (Nature Climate Change, 2012)

This must be the place: Underrepresentation of identity and meaning in climate change decision-making - Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Chapin, F. S., III; Ellemor, Heidi (Global Environmental Politics, 2011)
The dangers that future climate change poses to physical, biological, and economic systems are accounted for in analyses of risk and increasingly figure in decision-making about responses to climate change. Yet the potential cultural and social impacts of climate change have scarcely been considered. In this article we bring the risks climate change poses to cultures and social systems into consideration through a focus on places—those local material and symbolic contexts that give meaning and value to peoples' lives. By way of examples, the article reviews evidence on the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the Arctic and Pacific island atoll nations. It shows that impacts may result in the loss of many unique natural and cultural components of these places. We then argue that the risk of irreversible loss of places needs to be factored into decision-making on climate change. The article then suggests ways forward in decision-making that recognizes these non-market and non-instrumental metrics of risk, based on principles of justice and recognition of individual and community identity.

Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change? - Adger, W.N.; Dessai, S.; Goulden, M.; Hulme, M.; Lorenzoni, I.; Nelson, D.R.; Naess, L.O.; Wolf, J.; Wreford, A. (Climatic Change, 2009)

Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters - Adger, W. Neil; Hughes, Terry P.; Folke, Carl; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Rockström, Johan (Science, 2005)
Social and ecological vulnerability to disasters and outcomes of any particular extreme event are influenced by buildup or erosion of resilience both before and after disasters occur. Resilient social-ecological systems incorporate diverse mechanisms for living with, and learning from, change and unexpected shocks. Disaster management requires multilevel governance systems that can enhance the capacity to cope with uncertainty and surprise by mobilizing diverse sources of resilience.

Human security - Adger, W. N.; Pulhin, J. M.; Barnett, J.; Dabelko, G. D.; Hovelsrud, G. K.; Levy, M.; Ú. Oswald, Spring; Vogel, C. H. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 2014)

Steps to Reduce Exposure to Wildfire Smoke in Rural Alaska - ADHSS (Alaska Department of Health and Social Services (ADHSS), 2015)

The Light and the Heat: Productivity Co-benefits of Energy-Saving Technology - Adhvaryu, Achyuta; Kala, Namrata; Nyshadham, Anant (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014)

Integrating biorefinery and farm biogeochemical cycles offsets fossil energy and mitigates soil carbon losses - Adler, Paul R.; Mitchell, James G.; Pourhashem, Ghasideh; Spatari, Sabrina; Del Grosso, Stephen J.; Parton, William J. (Ecological Applications, 2015)
Crop residues are potentially significant sources of feedstock for biofuel production in the United States. However, there are concerns with maintaining the environmental functions of these residues while also serving as a feedstock for biofuel production. Maintaining soil organic carbon (SOC) along with its functional benefits is considered a greater constraint than maintaining soil erosion losses to an acceptable level. We used the biogeochemical model DayCent to evaluate the effect of residue removal, corn stover, and wheat and barley straw in three diverse locations in the USA. We evaluated residue removal with and without N replacement, along with application of a high‐lignin fermentation byproduct (HLFB), the residue by‐product comprised of lignin and small quantities of nutrients from cellulosic ethanol production. SOC always decreased with residue harvest, but the decrease was greater in colder climates when expressed on a life cycle basis. The effect of residue harvest on soil N2O emissions varied with N addition and climate. With N addition, N2O emissions always increased, but the increase was greater in colder climates. Without N addition, N2O emissions increased in Iowa, but decreased in Maryland and North Carolina with crop residue harvest. Although SOC was lower with residue harvest when HLFB was used for power production instead of being applied to land, the avoidance of fossil fuel emissions to the atmosphere by utilizing the cellulose and hemicellulose fractions of crop residue to produce ethanol (offsets) reduced the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because most of this residue carbon would normally be lost during microbial respiration. Losses of SOC and reduced N mineralization could both be mitigated with the application of HLFB to the land. Therefore, by returning the high‐lignin fraction of crop residue to the land after production of ethanol at the biorefinery, soil carbon levels could be maintained along with the functional benefit of increased mineralized N, and more GHG emissions could be offset compared to leaving the crop residues on the land.

The Impact of Climate Change and Population Growth on the National Flood Insurance Program Through 2100 - AECOM (AECOM (for FEMA), 2013)

Evaluating flood resilience strategies for coastal megacities - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Emanuel, Kerry; Lin, Ning; de Moel, Hans; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann O. (Science, 2014)
Keywords: urban climate change flooding resilience NE Projection

Water and climate: Recognize anthropogenic drought - AghaKouchak, Amir; Feldman, David; Hoerling, Martin; Huxman, Travis; Lund, Jay (Nature, 2015)

Strategic Management Plan: Newtok to Mertarvik - Agnew::Beck Consulting (Alaska Department of Commerce and Community and Economic Development (ADCCED), 2012)

Pérdidas por sector agrícola: Estimados realizados en base al SEPA (Sistema de Emergencia para la Agricultura) [Agricultural Losses by Lroduct: Preliminary Estimates Based on SEPA] - Agricultural Statistics Division (Puerto Rico Department of Agriculture, 2018)

Global climate change and children’s health - Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E. (Pediatrics, 2015)
Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children’s health.

Global climate change and children’s health - Ahdoot, Samantha; The Council on Environmental Health (Pediatrics, 2015)
Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as “climate change,” are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children’s mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge.

The Business of Pricing Carbon: How Companies Are Pricing Carbon to Mitigate Risks and Prepare for a Low-Carbon Future - Ahluwalia, Manjyot Bhan (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES), 2017)

Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble - Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Svoboda, Mark (International Journal of Climatology, 2017)
Drought is a natural hazard developing slowly and affecting large areas which may have severe consequences on society and economy. Due to the effects of climate change, drought is expected to exacerbate in various regions in future. In this study, the impact of climate change on drought characteristics is assessed, and statistical methods are employed to analyse the significance of projections. This is the first study utilizing 21 recently available downscaled global climate models generated by NASA (NEX-GDDP) to evaluate drought projections over various regions across the United States. Drought is investigated through a multi-model dual-index dual-scenario approach to probabilistically analyse drought attributes while characterizing the uncertainty in future drought projections. Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values at the seasonal scale (3 months) are used to project and analyse meteorological drought conditions from 1950 to 2099 at 0.25° spatial resolution. Two future concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are considered for this analysis. Accounting for the combined effects of precipitation and temperature variations reveals a considerable aggravation in severity and extent of future drought in the western United States and a tendency toward more frequent and intense summer droughts across the Contiguous United States.

Beyond yields: Climate change effects on specialty crop quality and agroecological management - Ahmed, Selena; Stepp, John Richard (Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2016)

2010 Washington Metropolitan Area Water Supply Reliability Study Part 2: Potential Impacts of Climate Change - Ahmed, S. N.; Bencala, K.R.; Schultz, C .L. (Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin, 2013)

Trend and variability in observed hydrological extremes in the United States - Ahn, Kuk-Hyun; Palmer, Richard N. (Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2016)

Fire History in Alaska [online map] - AICC (Alaska Interagency Coordination Center (AICC), 2015)

Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine foodwebs and fisheries - Ainsworth, C. H.; Samhouri, J. F.; Busch, D. S.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Dunne, J.; Okey, T. A. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2011)
Ainsworth, C. H., Samhouri, J. F., Busch, D. S., Cheung, W. W. L., Dunne, J., and Okey, T. A. 2011. Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine foodwebs and fisheries. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1217–1229.Although there has been considerable research on the impacts of individual changes in water temperature, carbonate chemistry, and other variables on species, cumulative impacts of these effects have rarely been studied. Here, we simulate changes in (i) primary productivity, (ii) species range shifts, (iii) zooplankton community size structure, (iv) ocean acidification, and (v) ocean deoxygenation both individually and together using five Ecopath with Ecosim models of the northeast Pacific Ocean. We used a standardized method to represent climate effects that relied on time-series forcing functions: annual multipliers of species productivity. We focused on changes in fisheries landings, biomass, and ecosystem characteristics (diversity and trophic indices). Fisheries landings generally declined in response to cumulative effects and often to a greater degree than would have been predicted based on individual climate effects, indicating possible synergies. Total biomass of fished and unfished functional groups displayed a decline, though unfished groups were affected less negatively. Some functional groups (e.g. pelagic and demersal invertebrates) were predicted to respond favourably under cumulative effects in some regions. The challenge of predicting climate change impacts must be met if we are to adapt and manage rapidly changing marine ecosystems in the 21st century.
10.1093/icesjms/fsr043

The Coastline at Risk: 2016 Update to the Estimated Insured Value of U.S. Coastal Properties - AIR Worldwide (AIR Worldwide, 2016)

Protecting the health and well-being of populations from disasters: Health and health care in the Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015-2030 - Aitsi-Selmi, Amina; Murray, Virginia (Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 2015)
The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) 2015-2030 is the first of three United Nations (UN) landmark agreements this year (the other two being the Sustainable Development Goals due in September 2015 and the climate change agreements due in December 2015). It represents a step in the direction of global policy coherence with explicit reference to health, economic development, and climate change. The multiple efforts of the health community in the policy development process, including campaigning for safe schools and hospitals, helped to put people’s mental and physical health, resilience, and well-being higher up the DRR agenda compared with its predecessor, the 2005 Hyogo Framework for Action. This report reflects on these policy developments and their implications and reviews the range of health impacts from disasters; summarizes the widened remit of DRR in the post-2015 world; and finally, presents the science and health calls of the Sendai Framework to be implemented over the next 15 years to reduce disaster losses in lives and livelihoods. Aitsi-Selmi A , Murray V . Protecting the Health and Well-being of Populations from Disasters: Health and Health Care in The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(1):74–78.
Keywords: disaster disaster risk reduction emergency response global health policy public health

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods - Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A. (Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017)
Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

Gov. Deal: 'Virtually the entire state' to be impacted by Irma - AJC Staff (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 2017)

Emission factors for open and domestic biomass burning for use in atmospheric models - Akagi, S.K.; Yokelson, R.J.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Alvarado, M.; Reid, J.; Karl, T.; Crounse, J.; Wennberg, P. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2011)

Effects of climate change on Salmonella infections - Akil, Luma; Ahmad, H. Anwar; Reddy, Remata S. (Foodborne Pathogens and Disease, 2014)
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Trends in Asthma Prevalence, Health Care Use, and Mortality in the United States, 2001–2010 - Akinbami, Lara J.; Moorman, Jeanne E.; Bailey, Cathy; Zahran, Hatice S.; King, Michael; Johnson, Carol A.; Liu, Xiang (NCHS Data Brief, 2012)

Health Impact Assessment of the Proposed Moʻomomi Community-Based Subsistence Fishing Area - Akutagawa, Malia; Cole, Elizabeth; Diaz, Tressa P.; Gupta, Tanaya Dutta; Gupta, Clare; Kamakaala, Shaelene; Taualii, Maile; Faʻanunu, Angela (The Kohala Center, 2016)
Hawai‘i State law provides pathways for island communities to apply for the designation of Community-Based Subsistence Fishing Areas (CBSFAs), allowing for comanagement of culturally significant and/or cologically vulnerable nearshore fisheries by the state and local communities. In the early 1990s residents of the Island of Moloka‘i expressed concern about Native Hawaiians’ rights to exercise traditional cultural fishing practices in nearshore environments. A task force report, commissioned in 1994 by then- Governor John Waihe‘e, recommended that the Mo‘omomi fishery area along the northwest coast of Moloka‘i serve as a demonstration area, in which fishing activities would be managed by the Ho‘olehua Homestead community primarily for subsistence rather than commercial use. The Hawai‘i State Legislature passed Hawai‘i Revised Statute §188-22.6 that same year, authorizing the Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) to designate CBSFAs and implement management strategies “for the purpose of reaffirming and protecting fishing practices customarily and traditionally exercised for the purposes of [N]ative Hawaiian subsistence, culture, and religion.” Fish and other marine life are prominent staples of traditional Hawaiian diets, and overfishing, commercial harvesting methods, and a gradual movement away from the Hawaiian mahele system of sharing and other ancestral practices were identified as threats to community and cultural food security. Despite the passage of legislation more than 20 years ago, the proposed Mo‘omomi CBSFA remained a pilot project. Currently Hui Mālama O Mo‘omomi, a community organization based on Moloka‘i, is in the process of advancing a formal proposal to make traditional subsistence harvesting practices legally enforceable in the designated area of Moloka‘i’s north shore. This Health Impact Assessment seeks to provide information that will help evaluate the CBSFA proposal by taking into consideration potential effects of CBSFA status on community well-being. The authors also hope that the findings and recommendations of an HIA particular to the Mo‘omomi area may also prove relevant to CBSFA proposals from other regions of the state where such co-management strategies are being considered.

Traditional & Customary Practices Report for Manaʻe (East) Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi - Akutagawa, Malia; Williams, Harmonee; Kamaka'ala, Shaelene; Native Hawaiian Rights Clinic (Office of Hawaiian Affairs, 2016)
Over the years, the people of Manaʻe (East Molokaʻi) have witnessed a notable decline in the health of their watershed. A significant part of this declining health is the degradation of the mauka (mountain) native forests, which has subsequently had a drastic effect on all of the ahupuaʻa (traditional land divisions) of Manaʻe, from mauka (mountain) to makai (sea). Ensuring the well-being of these mauka areas is essential to the preservation and perpetuation of Native Hawaiian traditional and customary practices carried out in the moku (district), given the symbiotic relationship between the people and their ʻāina. Thus, Manaʻe residents are passionate about protecting their moku and the resources that sustain them. It is their protectiveness of their island that often puts them at odds with each other in deciding how best to care for her – which is at the core of this report. In 2013, the possibility of protecting Manaʻe’s mauka rainforests with a fence was proposed to the community through the draft East Slope Watershed Start-Up Management Plan (“East Slope Management Plan”), which was prepared by the East Molokaʻi Watershed Partnership (EMoWP). That plan was based on the recognition that the degradation of these mauka areas was largely attributable to an influx of habitat altering invasive plant and animal species that have significantly impacted native forests, the life that inhabits them, and the freshwater they foster. The proposed fence has elicited strong reactions from the Manaʻe community – both for and against such a fence. It also caused some community members to call for additional planning that looks at the entire moku and all of its ahupuaʻa, from mauka to makai. In response to these strong reactions, the planning process to create this report was undertaken. The purpose of this report is to accomplish the following objectives: (1) Recognize that the people of Manaʻe (East Molokaʻi) regularly exercise Native Hawaiian traditional and customary practices, and document those practices. (2) Provide an explanation of Native Hawaiian legal protections pertinent to Manaʻe kamaʻāina’s traditional and customary practices. (3) Develop a framework for a community-based Subsistence and Ahupuaʻa Management Plan for the Manaʻe Moku, Mauka to Makai. (4) Summarize community recommendations for the East Molokaʻi Watershed Partnership’s East Slope Management Plan (January 2014 draft). The primary steps taken to reach these goals included: • Documentation of residents’ traditional and cultural practices in the moku of Manaʻe; • Gathering mana‘o (input) from key informants (kamaʻāina and other experts) regarding how best to protect these resources and practices; • Analysis of legal protections specific to Manaʻe families exercising Native Hawaiian traditional and customary practices within their moku and ahupuaʻa; • Reconciling varied perspectives and information where possible and finding common areas of agreement in manaʻo shared by Manaʻe families in terms of traditional and modern ʻāina (land) stewardship and ahupuaʻa resource management; • Identifying the recommendations that best incorporate and honor the collective manaʻo, and weaving them into a framework for a community-based Subsistence and Ahupuaʻa Management Plan for Manaʻe, Mauka to Makai. • Summarizing community recommendations for the East Slope Management Plan.

Resolution on the Importance of Sustainable Libraries - ALA (American Library Association (ALA), 2015)

Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Alaska Fish and Shellfish [web infographic] - Alaska Ocean Acidification Network (2017)

Projected carbon dioxide to increase grass pollen and allergen exposure despite higher ozone levels - Albertine, Jennifer M.; Manning, William J.; DaCosta, Michelle; Stinson, Kristina A.; Muilenberg, Michael L.; Rogers, Christine A. (PLOS ONE, 2014)
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Metropolitan land values - Albouy, David; Ehrlich, Gabriel; Shin, Minchul (The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2017)
We estimate the first cross-sectional index of transaction-based land values for every U.S. metropolitan area. The index accounts for geographic selection and incorporates novel shrinkage methods using a prior belief based on urban economic theory. Land values at the city center increase with city size, as do land-value gradients; both are highly variable across cities. Urban land values are estimated at more than two times GDP in 2006. These estimates are higher and less volatile than estimates from residual (total - structure) methods. Five urban agglomerations account for 48 percent of all urban land value in the United States. JEL Codes: C43, R1, R3

Climate amenities, climate change, and American quality of life - Albouy, David; Graf, Walter; Kellogg, Ryan; Wolff, Hendrik (Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 2016)
We present a hedonic framework to estimate US households’ preferences over local climates, using detailed weather and 2000 Census data. We find that Americans favor a daily average temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit, that they will pay more on the margin to avoid excess heat than cold, and that damages increase less than linearly over extreme cold. These preferences vary by location due to sorting or adaptation. Changes in climate amenities under business-as-usual predictions imply annual welfare losses of 1%–4% of income by 2100, holding technology and preferences constant.
Keywords: H49,I39,Q54,R10

Reversal of ocean acidification enhances net coral reef calcification - Albright, Rebecca; Caldeira, Lilian; Hosfelt, Jessica; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Maclaren, Jana K.; Mason, Benjamin M.; Nebuchina, Yana; Ninokawa, Aaron; Pongratz, Julia; Ricke, Katharine L.; Rivlin, Tanya; Schneider, Kenneth; et al. (Nature, 2016)

Stakeholder participation in building resilience to disasters in a changing climate - Aldunce, Paulina; Beilin, Ruth; Handmer, John; Howden, Mark (Environmental Hazards, 2016)

Real world headwinds for Trump climate change policy - Aldy, Joseph E. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2017)

Hurricane Maria [web site] - ALERT Worldwide (AIR Worldwide, 2017)

Freshwater vulnerabilities and resilience on the Seward Peninsula: Integrating multiple dimensions of landscape change. - Alessa, Lilian (Na'ia); Kliskey, Andrew (Anaru); Busey, Robert; Hinzman, Larry; White, Dan (Global Environmental Change, 2008)

Linking indigenous and scientific knowledge of climate change - Alexander, Clarence; Bynum, Nora; Johnson, Elizabeth; King, Ursula; Mustonen, Tero; Neofotis, Peter; Oettlé, Noel; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Sakakibara, Chie; Shadrin, Vyacheslav; Vicarelli, Marta; Waterhouse, Jon; et al. (BioScience, 2011)
We explore the connections among indigenous climate-related narratives, documented temperature changes, and climate change impact studies from the scientific literature. We then propose a framework for enhancing synthesis of these indigenous narratives of observed climate change with global assessments. Our aim is to contribute to the thoughtful and respectful integration of indigenous knowledge with scientific data and analysis, so that this rich body of knowledge can inform science and so that indigenous peoples can use the tools and methods of science for the benefit of their communities if they choose to do so. Improving ways of understanding such connections is critical as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report process proceeds.
10.1525/bio.2011.61.6.10

When climate reshuffles competitors: A call for experimental macroecology - Alexander, Jake M.; Diez, Jeffrey M.; Hart, Simon P.; Levine, Jonathan M. (Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2016)

Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans - Alexander, M. A.; Scott, J. D.; Friedland, K.; Mills, K. E.; Nye, J. A.; Pershing, A. J.; Thomas, A. C. (Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2018)

The impact of extratropical atmospheric variability on ENSO: Testing the seasonal footprinting mechanism using coupled model experiments - Alexander, Michael A.; Vimont, Daniel J.; Chang, Ping; Scott, James D. (Journal of Climate, 2010)
Previous studies suggest that extratropical atmospheric variability influences the tropics via the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM), in which fluctuations in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) impact the ocean via surface heat fluxes during winter and the resulting springtime subtropical SST anomalies alter the atmosphere–ocean system over the tropics in the following summer, fall, and winter. Here, the authors test the SFM hypothesis by imposing NPO-related surface heat flux forcing in an atmospheric GCM coupled to a reduced gravity ocean model in the tropics and a slab ocean in the extratropics. The forcing is only imposed through the first winter, and then the model is free to evolve through the following winter. The evolution of the coupled model response to the forcing is consistent with the SFM hypothesis: the NPO-driven surface fluxes cause positive SST anomalies to form in the central and eastern subtropics during winter; these anomalies propagate toward the equator along with westerly wind anomalies during spring, reach the equator in summer, and then amplify, which leads to an ENSO event in the following winter. The anomalies reach the equator through a combination of thermodynamically coupled air–sea interactions, namely, the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback and equatorial ocean dynamics. The initial off-equatorial anomaly propagates toward the equator through a relaxation of the climatological easterly winds south of the dominant SST anomalies, which leads to a reduction in upward latent heat flux. These westerly anomalies reach the equator during boreal summer, where they can excite downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves. The connection between off-equatorial variations and tropical ENSO-like conditions may also occur via the excitation of westward-propagating equatorial Rossby waves during spring, which reflect off of the western boundary as Kelvin waves, depressing the thermocline in the eastern Pacific during the following summer. NPO-related anomalies that form during the first winter in the tropical Pacific may also contribute to the development of an El Niño event in the following winter. The imposition of the NPO-related forcing caused warming in the ENSO region in ∼70% of the ensemble of 60 simulations; therefore, the response depends on the state of the tropical atmosphere–ocean system. For years where the control simulation was poised to develop into a neutral or negative ENSO event, the addition of the NPO heat fluxes tended to cause anomalous warming in the tropical Pacific in the following fall/winter; if the control was heading toward a warm ENSO event, the imposition of NPO forcing tends to reduce the amplitude of that event.
Keywords: ENSO,Extratropics,Coupled models,Sea surface temperature,Atmosphere–ocean interaction

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections - Alexander, Peter; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.; Arneth, Almut; Baranzelli, Claudia; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Brown, Calum; Butler, Adam; Calvin, Katherine; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Dunford, Robert; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: cropland land cover land use model inter-comparison uncertainty

Cultivating Food Justice: Race, Class, and Sustainability - Alkon, Alison Hope; Agyeman, Julian (MIT Press, 2011)

Joint analysis of stressors and ecosystem services to enhance restoration effectiveness - Allan, J. David; McIntyre, Peter B.; Smith, Sigrid D. P.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Boyer, Gregory L.; Buchsbaum, Andy; Burton, G. A.; Campbell, Linda M.; Chadderton, W. Lindsay; Ciborowski, Jan J. H.; Doran, Patrick J.; Eder, Tim; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
With increasing pressure placed on natural systems by growing human populations, both scientists and resource managers need a better understanding of the relationships between cumulative stress from human activities and valued ecosystem services. Societies often seek to mitigate threats to these services through large-scale, costly restoration projects, such as the over one billion dollar Great Lakes Restoration Initiative currently underway. To help inform these efforts, we merged high-resolution spatial analyses of environmental stressors with mapping of ecosystem services for all five Great Lakes. Cumulative ecosystem stress is highest in near-shore habitats, but also extends offshore in Lakes Erie, Ontario, and Michigan. Variation in cumulative stress is driven largely by spatial concordance among multiple stressors, indicating the importance of considering all stressors when planning restoration activities. In addition, highly stressed areas reflect numerous different combinations of stressors rather than a single suite of problems, suggesting that a detailed understanding of the stressors needing alleviation could improve restoration planning. We also find that many important areas for fisheries and recreation are subject to high stress, indicating that ecosystem degradation could be threatening key services. Current restoration efforts have targeted high-stress sites almost exclusively, but generally without knowledge of the full range of stressors affecting these locations or differences among sites in service provisioning. Our results demonstrate that joint spatial analysis of stressors and ecosystem services can provide a critical foundation for maximizing social and ecological benefits from restoration investments.

Climate change and freshwater ecosystems - Allan, J. David; Palmer, Margaret; Poff, N. Leroy (Climate Change and Biodiversity, 2005)

Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes - Allan, Richard P.; Soden, Brian J. (Science, 2008)
Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene - Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nate G. (Ecosphere, 2015)
Keywords: carbon starvation climate change CO2 fertilization drought ESA Centennial Paper extreme events forest die-off forests hydraulic failure insect pests pathogens tree mortality woodlands

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests - Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, Alison K.; Chenchouni, Haroun; Bachelet, Dominique; McDowell, Nate; Vennetier, Michel; Kitzberger, Thomas; Rigling, Andreas; Breshears, David D.; Hogg, E. H.; Gonzalez, Patrick; Fensham, Rod; et al. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2010)
(Ted)
Keywords: Climate change; Drought effects; Forest die-off; Forest mortality; Global patterns; Tree mortality

The Characteristics of United States Hail Reports: 1955-2014 - Allen, John T.; Tippett, Michael K. (Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, 2015)
The United States hail observation dataset maintained and updated annually by the Storm Prediction Center is one of the largest currently available worldwide and spans the period 1955-present.  Despite its length, climatology of this dataset is nontrivial because of numerous characteristics that are nonmeteorological in origin.  Here, the main features and limitations of the dataset are explored, including the implications of an increasing frequency in the time series, approaches to spatial smoothing of observations, and the sources that contribute to the hail dataset.  Despite these problems, using limited temporal windows, spatial binning and judicious application of smoothing techniques reveals important characteristics of the hail dataset.  The annual and diurnal cycles are found to be sensitive to the spatial shift northwards of observations and increasing report frequency in the Southeast.  Hail days, in contrast to hail reports, show no national trend over the last 25 y.  Regional and local influences on hail reporting are identified stemming from verification procedures and contributions from local officials.  The change in the definition of severe hail size from 0.75 in (1.9 cm) to 1.00 in (2.5 cm) in 2010 has a particularly clear signature in the report statistics.  The contribution of storm chasers and source of report factors beyond population to the hail dataset is also explored, and the difficulty in removing these changes discussed.  The overall findings highlight the limitations and nonmeteorological features present in hail observations.  Adding visual and descriptive metadata has the potential to improve the hail reporting process.

Collaboration in the Borderlands: The Malpai Borderlands Group - Allen, Larry S. (Rangelands, 2006)

Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States - Allen, Melissa R.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Fu, Joshua S.; Olama, Mohammed M. (Nature Energy, 2016)

Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width - Allen, Robert J.; Norris, Joel R.; Kovilakam, Mahesh (Nature Geoscience, 2014)

Recent Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion primarily driven by black carbon and tropospheric ozone - Allen, Robert J.; Sherwood, Steven C.; Norris, Joel R.; Zender, Charles S. (Nature, 2012)

The Effect of Rising Sea Levels on Coastal Homes - Allison, Melissa (Zillow Porchlight, 2016)

Spring plant phenology and false springs in the conterminous US during the 21st century - Allstadt, Andrew J.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
The onset of spring plant growth has shifted earlier in the year over the past several decades due to rising global temperatures. Earlier spring onset may cause phenological mismatches between the availability of plant resources and dependent animals, and potentially lead to more false springs, when subsequent freezing temperatures damage new plant growth. We used the extended spring indices to project changes in spring onset, defined by leaf out and by first bloom, and predicted false springs until 2100 in the conterminous United States (US) using statistically-downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 ensemble. Averaged over our study region, the median shift in spring onset was 23 days earlier in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario with particularly large shifts in the Western US and the Great Plains. Spatial variation in phenology was due to the influence of short-term temperature changes around the time of spring onset versus season-long accumulation of warm temperatures. False spring risk increased in the Great Plains and portions of the Midwest, but remained constant or decreased elsewhere. We conclude that global climate change may have complex and spatially variable effects on spring onset and false springs, making local predictions of change difficult.

Carbon capture and utilization update - Al‐Mamoori, Ahmed; Krishnamurthy, Anirudh; Rownaghi, Ali A.; Rezaei, Fateme (Energy Technology, 2017)
In recent years, carbon capture and utilization (CCU) has been proposed as a potential technological solution to the problems of greenhouse‐gas emissions and the ever‐growing energy demand. To combat climate change and ocean acidification as a result of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, efforts have already been put forth to capture and sequester CO2 from large point sources, especially power plants; however, the utilization of CO2 as a feedstock to make valuable chemicals, materials, and transportation fuels is potentially more desirable and provides a better and long‐term solution than sequestration. The products of CO2 utilization can supplement or replace chemical feedstocks in the fine chemicals, pharmaceutical, and polymer industries. In this review, we first provide an overview of the current status of CO2‐capture technologies and their associated challenges and opportunities with respect to efficiency and economy followed by an overview of various carbon‐utilization approaches. The current status of combined CO2 capture and utilization, as a novel efficient and cost‐effective approach, is also briefly discussed. We summarize the main challenges associated with the design, development, and large‐scale deployment of CO2 capture and utilization processes to provide a perspective and roadmap for the development of new technologies and opportunities to accelerate their scale‐up in the near future.

Mangrove forests: Resilience, protection from tsunamis, and responses to global climate change - Alongi, D.M. (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2008)

Third National Communication of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Submitted to UNFCCC) - Alsarhan, Abdullah; Mohammed Zatari, Taha; Al-Asaly, Fareed S.; Ablueif, Khalid M.; Harthi, Awwad A.; Al Othman, Mohammed A.; Babiker, Mustafa H.; Khan, Ahsanullah; Saud Aljabr, Abdullah; Albuqami, Faisal H.; Khelaifi, Ali Ibrahim; Sairafi, Abdulbasit Salem; et al. (Saudi Designated National Authority, 2016)

Twentieth century regional climate change during the summer in the central United States attributed to agricultural intensification - Alter, Ross E.; Douglas, Hunter C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2018)
Both land use changes and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have significantly modified regional climate over the last century. In the central United States, for example, observational data indicate that rainfall increased, surface air temperature decreased, and surface humidity increased during the summer over the course of the twentieth century concurrently with increases in both agricultural production and global GHG emissions. However, the relative contributions of each of these forcings to the observed regional changes remain unclear. Results of both regional climate model simulations and observational analyses suggest that much of the observed rainfall increase—as well as the decrease in temperature and increase in humidity—is attributable to agricultural intensification in the central United States, with natural variability and GHG emissions playing secondary roles. Thus, we conclude that twentieth century land use changes contributed more to forcing observed regional climate change during the summer in the central United States than increasing GHG emissions.

Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change - Althor, Glenn; Watson, James E. M.; Fuller, Richard A. (Scientific Reports, 2016)

A trophic cascade triggers collapse of a salt‐marsh ecosystem with intensive recreational fishing - Altieri, Andrew H.; Bertness, Mark D.; Coverdale, Tyler C.; Herrmann, Nicholas C.; Angelini, Christine (Ecology, 2012)
Overexploitation of predators has been linked to the collapse of a growing number of shallow‐water marine ecosystems. However, salt‐marsh ecosystems are often viewed and managed as systems controlled by physical processes, despite recent evidence for herbivore‐driven die‐off of marsh vegetation. Here we use field observations, experiments, and historical records at 14 sites to examine whether the recently reported die‐off of northwestern Atlantic salt marshes is associated with the cascading effects of predator dynamics and intensive recreational fishing activity. We found that the localized depletion of top predators at sites accessible to recreational anglers has triggered the proliferation of herbivorous crabs, which in turn results in runaway consumption of marsh vegetation. This suggests that overfishing may be a general mechanism underlying the consumer‐driven die‐off of salt marshes spreading throughout the western Atlantic. Our findings support the emerging realization that consumers play a dominant role in regulating marine plant communities and can lead to ecosystem collapse when their impacts are amplified by human activities, including recreational fishing.

Climate change and dead zones - Altieri, Andrew H.; Gedan, Keryn B. (Global Change Biology, 2015)
Keywords: dissolved oxygen ecosystem function estuaries eutrophication hypoxia ocean acidification sea-level rise temperature

Climate change and infectious diseases: From evidence to a predictive framework - Altizer, S.; Ostfeld, R. S.; Johnson, P. T.; Kutz, S.; Harvell, C. D. (Science, 2013)
Scientists have long predicted large-scale responses of infectious diseases to climate change, giving rise to a polarizing debate, especially concerning human pathogens for which socioeconomic drivers and control measures can limit the detection of climate-mediated changes. Climate change has already increased the occurrence of diseases in some natural and agricultural systems, but in many cases, outcomes depend on the form of climate change and details of the host-pathogen system. In this review, we highlight research progress and gaps that have emerged during the past decade and develop a predictive framework that integrates knowledge from ecophysiology and community ecology with modeling approaches. Future work must continue to anticipate and monitor pathogen biodiversity and disease trends in natural ecosystems and identify opportunities to mitigate the impacts of climate-driven disease emergence.
Altizer, Sonia Ostfeld, Richard S Johnson, Pieter T J Kutz, Susan Harvell, C Drew Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Review United States Science. 2013 Aug 2;341(6145):514-9. doi: 10.1126/science.1239401.
Keywords: Animals Biodiversity Climate Change Communicable Diseases/ epidemiology/transmission Extinction, Biological Health Host-Parasite Interactions Host-Pathogen Interactions Humans Prognosis

Correlating drought conservation practices and drought vulnerability in a tropical agricultural system - Álvarez-Berríos, Nora L.; Soto-Bayó, Sandra; Holupchinski, Eva; Fain, Stephen J.; Gould, William A. (Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 2018)
Recent droughts in Puerto Rico and throughout the Caribbean have emphasized the region's agricultural vulnerability to this hazard and the increasing need for adaptation mechanisms to support sustainable production. In this study, we assessed the geographic extent of agricultural conservation practices incentivized by US Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and evaluated their large-scale contribution to drought adaptability. We identified concentrations of drought-related practices (e.g. cover crops, ponds) applied between 2000 and 2016. Using information from spatial databases and interviews with experts, we assessed the spatial correlation between these practices and areas exposed to drought as identified by the US Drought Monitor. Between 2000 and 2016, Puerto Rico experienced seven drought episodes concentrated around the south, east and southeastern regions. The most profound drought occurred between 2014 and 2016 when the island experienced 80 consecutive weeks of moderate drought, 48 of severe drought and 33 of extreme drought conditions. A total of 44 drought-related conservation practices were applied at 6984 locations throughout 860 km2 of farmlands between 2000 and 2016 through the NRCS-Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP). Practices related to water availability were statistically clustered along the coasts, whereas soil and plant health practices were clustered in the mountainous region. While these concentrations strongly correlated with areas exposed to moderate drought conditions, >80% did not coincide with areas that experienced severe or extreme drought conditions, suggesting that areas highly exposed to drought conditions generally lacked drought preparedness assisted by EQIP. Climate projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of drought events, particularly in the eastern region of Puerto Rico. Our analysis highlighted the need to implement more conservation practices in these areas subject to drought intensification and exposure. Government programs intended to address vulnerabilities and enhance capacity and resilience may not be reaching areas of highest exposure. Recommendations include raising producer awareness of past and future exposure and making programs more accessible to a broader audience.
Keywords: Adaptation agricultural drought conservation programs hotspot analysis Puerto Rico

Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere - AMAP (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, 2011)

Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Region - AMAP (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), 2017)

Summary for Policy-Makers. Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost - AMAP (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), 2017)

Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) 2017 - AMAP (2017)
978-82-7971-101-8

“The heartbeat of our people”: Identifying and measuring how salmon influences Quinault tribal well-being - Amberson, Sophia; Biedenweg, Kelly; James, Justine; Christie, Patrick (Society & Natural Resources, 2016)

Executive Summary: The Scientific Basis of Climate Change. Contribution from Grupo de Trabalho 1 (Working Group 1) to the Primeiro Relatório de Avaliação Nacional sobre Mudanças Climáticas of the Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas (GT1 RAN1 PBMC) - Ambrizzi, Tercio; Araujo, Moacyr C. (COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, 2013)
ISBN: 978-85-285-0207-7

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among‐population demographic responses to climatic variation - Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Campbell, Grant Evan H.; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B.; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2018)
Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long‐term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long‐term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species‐interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.

Transit Climate Change Adaptation Assessment for the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority - Amekudzi, Adjo; Crane, Matthew; Springstead, David; Rose, David; Batac, Tiffany (Federal Transit Administration, 2013)

Where We Stand: Climate Change - American Institute of Architects
Keywords: added by ERG

Industry Statement on Resilience: Preparing to Thrive: The Building Industry Statement on Resilience - American Institute of Architects; National Institute of Building Sciences (2015)
Keywords: added by ERG

2017 Infrastructure Report Card: A Comprehensive Assessment of America’s Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2017)

Arts and Economic Prosperity 5: Economic Impact of the Nonprofit Arts & Culture Industry - Americans for the Arts (Americans for the Arts, 2017)

America's Pledge Phase 1 Report: States, Cities, and Businesses in the United States Are Stepping Up on Climate Action - America's Pledge (Bloomberg Philanthropies, 2017)

Environmental effects on pregnancy rate in beef cattle - Amundson, J. L.; Mader, T. L.; Rasby, R. J.; Hu, Q. S. (Journal of Animal Science, 2006)

Assessing climate change impacts on wildfire risk in the United States - An, Hyunjin; Gan, Jianbang; Cho, Sung (Forests, 2015)

Effects of heat waves on mortality: Effect modification and confounding by air pollutants - Analitis, A.; Michelozzi, P.; D'Ippoliti, D.; de'Donato, F.; Menne, B.; Matthies, F.; Atkinson, R.W.; Iñiguez, C.; Basagaña, X.; Schneider, A.; Lefranc, A.; Paldy, A.; et al. (Epidemiology, 2014)
Ch2

Adverse Childhood Experiences & Population Health in Washington: The Face of a Chronic Public Health Disaster. Results from the 2009 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) - Anda, Robert F.; Brown, David W. (Washington State Family Policy Council, 2010)

Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate - Anderegg, William R. L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Allen, Craig D.; Aukema, Juliann; Bentz, Barbara; Hood, Sharon; Lichstein, Jeremy W.; Macalady, Alison K.; McDowell, Nate; Pan, Yude; Raffa, Kenneth; et al. (New Phytologist, 2015)
Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate‐induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process‐based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects – bark beetles and defoliators – which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross‐biome patterns of insect‐driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree–insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models - Anderegg, W. R. L.; Schwalm, C.; Biondi, F.; Camarero, J. J.; Koch, G.; Litvak, M.; Ogle, K.; Shaw, J. D.; Shevliakova, E.; Williams, A. P.; Wolf, A.; Ziaco, E.; et al. (Science, 2015)
The response of forest ecosystems to drought is increasingly important in the context of a warming climate. Anderegg et al. studied a tree-ring database of 1338 forest sites from around the globe. They found that forests exhibit a drought “legacy effect” with 3 to 4 years' reduced growth following drought. During this postdrought delay, forests will be less able to act as a sink for carbon. Incorporating forest legacy effects into Earth system models will provide more accurate predictions of the effects of drought on the global carbon cycle.Science, this issue p. 528The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate–carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of stem growth in trees after severe drought at 1338 forest sites across the globe, comprising 49,339 site-years, and compared the results with simulated recovery in climate-vegetation models. We found pervasive and substantial “legacy effects” of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1 to 4 years after severe drought. Legacy effects were most prevalent in dry ecosystems, among Pinaceae, and among species with low hydraulic safety margins. In contrast, limited or no legacy effects after drought were simulated by current climate-vegetation models. Our results highlight hysteresis in ecosystem-level carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/349/6247/528.full.pdf

Risk assessment for invasive species - Andersen, Mark C.; Adams, Heather; Hope, Bruce; Powell, Mark (Risk Analysis, 2004)
Keywords: Invasive species risk assessment theoretical ecology

Immigrants and refugees: The importance of dispersal in mediating biotic attrition under climate change - Anderson, Alex S.; Reside, April E.; VanDerWal, Jeremy J.; Shoo, Luke P.; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E. (Global Change Biology, 2012)
Montane tropical rainforests are critically important areas for global bird diversity, but are projected to be highly vulnerable to contemporary climate change. Upslope shifts of lowland species may partially offset declines in upland species but also result in a process of lowland biotic attrition. This latter process is contingent on the absence of species adapted to novel warm climates, and isolation from pools of potential colonizers. In the Australian Wet Tropics, species distribution modelling has forecast critical declines in suitable environmental area for upland endemic birds, raising the question of the future role of both natural and assisted dispersal in species survival, but information is lacking for important neighbouring rainforest regions. Here we use expanded geographic coverage of data to model the realized distributions of 120 bird species found in north‐eastern Australian rainforest, including species from potential source locations in the north and recipient locations in the south. We reaffirm previous conclusions as to the high vulnerability of this fauna to global warming, and extend the list of species whose suitable environmental area is projected to decrease. However, we find that expansion of suitable area for some species currently restricted to northern rainforests has the potential to offset biotic attrition in lowland forest of the Australian Wet Tropics. By examining contrasting dispersal scenarios, we show that responses to climate change in this region may critically depend on dispersal limitation, as climate change shifts the suitable environmental envelopes of many species south into currently unsuitable habitats. For lowland and northern species, future change in vegetation connectivity across contemporary habitat barriers is likely to be an important mediator of climate change impacts. In contrast, upland species are projected to become increasingly isolated and restricted. Their survival is likely to be more dependent on the viability of assisted migration, and the emergence and persistence of suitable environments at recipient locations.

2015 Drought Response: Summary Report - Anderson, Barbara; Anderson, Chris; Christensen, Dave; Inman, Rebecca; Marti, Jeff (Washington State Department of Ecology, 2016)

Testing for the possible influence of unknown climate forcings upon global temperature increases from 1950 to 2000 - Anderson, Bruce T.; Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A.; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Cherchi, Annalisa (Journal of Climate, 2012)
Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century, including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures, are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000, data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numerical global climate models. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperatures—and global-mean near-surface temperatures—is provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10% of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition, they indicate that less than 25% of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements, emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century.
Keywords: Anthropogenic effects,Climate change,Energy budget/balance,Forcing,General circulation models

Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot - Anderson, Chris; Claman, David; Mantilla, Ricardo (Iowa State University, Institute for Transportation, 2015)

Initial skill assessment of the California Harmful Algae Risk Mapping (C-HARM) system - Anderson, Clarissa R.; Kudela, Raphael M.; Kahru, Mati; Chao, Yi; Rosenfeld, Leslie K.; Bahr, Frederick L.; Anderson, David M.; Norris, Tenaya A. (Harmful Algae, 2016)
Keywords: Domoic acid DINEOF Ocean color ROMS Ecological forecasting Ocean observing

Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology) - Anderson, David G.; Bissett, Thaddeus G.; Yerka, Stephen J.; Wells, Joshua J.; Kansa, Eric C.; Kansa, Sarah W.; Myers, Kelsey Noack; DeMuth, R. Carl; White, Devin A. (PLOS ONE, 2017)
The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts.

Criollo cattle: Heritage genetics for arid landscapes - Anderson, Dean M.; Estell, Rick E.; Gonzalez, Alfredo L.; Cibils, Andres F.; Torell, L. Allen (Rangelands, 2015)
Keywords: livestock dry lands foraging Mexican cattle

Effect of sea level rise and groundwater withdrawal on seawater intrusion in the Gulf Coast aquifer: Implications for agriculture - Anderson, Faye; Al-Thani, Najla (Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 2016)

Heat waves in the United States: Mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U.S. communities - Anderson, G.B.; Bell, M.L. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2011)

Lights out: Impact of the August 2003 power outage on mortality in New York, NY - Anderson, G.B.; Bell, M.L. (Epidemiology, 2012)

Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities - Anderson, G. Brooke; Oleson, Keith W.; Jones, Bryan; Peng, Roger D. (Climatic Change, 2016)
Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061–2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario—going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.

Classifying heatwaves: Developing health-based models to predict high-mortality versus moderate United States heatwaves - Anderson, G. Brooke; Oleson, Keith W.; Jones, Bryan; Peng, Roger D. (Climatic Change, 2018)
Heatwaves are divided between moderate, more common heatwaves and rare “high-mortality” heatwaves that have extremely large health effects per day, which we define as heatwaves with a 20 % or higher increase in mortality risk. Better projections of the expected frequency of and exposure to these separate types of heatwaves could help communities optimize heat mitigation and response plans and gauge the potential benefits of limiting climate change. Whether a heatwave is high-mortality or moderate could depend on multiple heatwave characteristics, including intensity, length, and timing. We created heatwave classification models using a heatwave training dataset created using recent (1987–2005) health and weather data from 82 large US urban communities. We built twenty potential classification models and used Monte Carlo cross-validations to evaluate these models. We ultimately identified several models that can adequately classify high-mortality heatwaves. These models can be used to project future trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of a changing future (e.g., climate change, population change). Further, these models are novel in the way they allow exploration of different scenarios of adaptation to heat, as they include, as predictive variables, heatwave characteristics that are measured relative to a community’s temperature distribution, allowing different adaptation scenarios to be explored by selecting alternative community temperature distributions. The three selected models have been placed on GitHub for use by other researchers, and we use them in a companion paper to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different climate, population, and adaptation scenarios.

Climate and Health Intervention Assessment: Evidence on Public Health Interventions to Prevent the Negative Health Effects of Climate Change - Anderson, Henry; Brown, Claudia; Cameron, Lorraine L.; Christenson, Megan; Conlon, Kathryn C.; Dorevitch, Samuel; Dumas, Justin; Eidson, Millicent; Ferguson, Aaron; Grossman, Elena; Hanson, Angelina; Hess, Jeremy J.; et al. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Climate and Health Program, 2017)

Analysis of bridge and stream conditions of over 300 Vermont bridges damaged in Tropical Storm Irene - Anderson, Ian; Rizzo, Donna M.; Huston, Dryver R.; Dewoolkar, Mandar M. (Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 2017)

Planning Pacific salmon and steelhead reintroductions aimed at long‐term viability and recovery - Anderson, Joseph H.; Pess, George R.; Carmichael, Richard W.; Ford, Michael J.; Cooney, Thomas D.; Baldwin, Casey M.; McClure, Michelle M. (North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 2014)
Local extirpations of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and steelhead O. mykiss, often due to dams and other stream barriers, are common throughout the western United States. Reestablishing salmonid populations in areas they historically occupied has substantial potential to assist conservation efforts, but best practices for reintroduction are not well established. In this paper, we present a framework for planning reintroductions designed to promote the recovery of salmonids listed under the Endangered Species Act. Before implementing a plan, managers should first describe the benefits, risks, and constraints of a proposed reintroduction. We define benefits as specific biological improvements towards recovery objectives. Risks are the potential negative outcomes of reintroductions that could worsen conservation status rather than improve it. Constraints are biological factors that will determine whether the reintroduction successfully establishes a self‐sustaining population. We provide guidance for selecting a recolonization strategy (natural colonization, transplanting, or hatchery releases), a source population, and a method for providing passage that will maximize the probability of conservation benefit while minimizing risks. Monitoring is necessary to determine whether the reintroduction successfully achieved the benefits and to evaluate the impacts on nontarget species or populations. Many of the benefits, especially diversity and the evolution of locally adapted population segments, are likely to accrue over decadal time scales. Thus, we view reintroduction as a long‐term approach to enhancing viability. Finally, our review of published salmonid reintroduction case studies suggests that large uncertainties remain in the success of reintroduction in establishing self‐sustaining populations, particularly for programs employing active methods. Received September 10, 2012; accepted August 30, 2013 Published online January 30, 2014

Permeable Landscapes for Climate Change - Anderson, Mark G.; Clark, Melissa; McRae, Brad H. (The Nature Conservancy, Eastern Conservation Science, 2015)

Resilient Sites for Terrestrial Conservation in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Region - Anderson, Mark G.; Clark, Melissa; Sheldon, Arlene Olivero (The Nature Conservancy, Eastern Conservation Science, 2012)

Emerging infectious diseases of plants: Pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers - Anderson, Pamela K.; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Patel, Nikkita G.; Morales, Francisco J.; Epstein, Paul R.; Daszak, Peter (Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2004)

Biophysical considerations in forestry for climate protection - Anderson, Ray G.; Canadell, Josep G.; Randerson, James T.; Jackson, Robert B.; Hungate, Bruce A.; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Ban-Weiss, George A.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Caldeira, Ken; Cao, Long; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Gurney, Kevin R.; et al. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2011)

Benefits and risks of diversification for individual fishers - Anderson, Sean C.; Ward, Eric J.; Shelton, Andrew O.; Adkison, Milo D.; Beaudreau, Anne H.; Brenner, Richard E.; Haynie, Alan C.; Shriver, Jennifer C.; Watson, Jordan T.; Williams, Benjamin C. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Individuals who rely on natural resources for their livelihoods, such as fishers, farmers, and forestry workers, face high levels of income variability. For fishers, catching multiple species has been shown to reduce revenue variability at large scales (vessels and communities), but the individual-level consequences of maintaining catch diversity are unknown. Our work demonstrates that individuals in fisheries targeting a diversity of species and individuals who participate in multiple fisheries buffer income variability compared with less diverse individuals. However, large adjustments in diversification strategies from year to year are risky and usually increase revenue variability. The most effective option to reduce revenue variability via diversification—purchasing additional permits—is also expensive, often limited by regulations, and therefore unavailable to many.Individuals relying on natural resource extraction for their livelihood face high income variability driven by a mix of environmental, biological, management, and economic factors. Key to managing these industries is identifying how regulatory actions and individual behavior affect income variability, financial risk, and, by extension, the economic stability and the sustainable use of natural resources. In commercial fisheries, communities and vessels fishing a greater diversity of species have less revenue variability than those fishing fewer species. However, it is unclear whether these benefits extend to the actions of individual fishers and how year-to-year changes in diversification affect revenue and revenue variability. Here, we evaluate two axes by which fishers in Alaska can diversify fishing activities. We show that, despite increasing specialization over the last 30 years, fishing a set of permits with higher species diversity reduces individual revenue variability, and fishing an additional permit is associated with higher revenue and lower variability. However, increasing species diversity within the constraints of existing permits has a fishery-dependent effect on revenue and is usually (87% probability) associated with increased revenue uncertainty the following year. Our results demonstrate that the most effective option for individuals to decrease revenue variability is to participate in additional or more diverse fisheries. However, this option is expensive, often limited by regulations such as catch share programs, and consequently unavailable to many individuals. With increasing climatic variability, it will be particularly important that individuals relying on natural resources for their livelihood have effective strategies to reduce financial risk.

Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment - Anderson, Thor; Beck, Charles; Gade, Kris; Olmsted, Steven (Arizona Department of Transportation, 2015)

Institutions and the wealth of Indian nations - Anderson, Terry L.; Leonard, Bryan (Unlocking the Wealth of Indian Nations, 2016)

Natural resources on American Indian Reservations: blessing or curse? - Anderson, Terry L.; Leonard, Bryan; Parker, Dominic P.; Regan, Shawn (Unlocking the Wealth of Indian Nations, 2016)

Dedicated herbaceous biomass feedstock genetics and development - Anderson, W. F.; Sarath, G.; Edme, S.; Casler, M. D.; Mitchell, R. B.; Tobias, C. M.; Hale, A. L.; Sattler, S. E.; Knoll, J. E. (BioEnergy Research, 2016)
Biofuels and bio-based products can be produced from a wide variety of herbaceous feedstocks. To supply enough biomass to meet the needs of a new bio-based economy, a suite of dedicated biomass species must be developed to accommodate a range of growing environments throughout the USA. Researchers from the US Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) and collaborators associated with the USDA Regional Biomass Research Centers have made major progress in understanding the genetics of switchgrass, sorghum, and other grass species and have begun to use this knowledge to develop new cultivars with high yields and appropriate traits for efficient conversion to bio-based products. Plant geneticists and breeders have discovered genes that reduce recalcitrance for biochemical conversion to ethanol and drop-in fuels. Progress has also been made in finding genes that improve production under biotic and abiotic stress from diseases, pests, and climatic variations.

Ocean acidification and coral reefs: Effects on breakdown, dissolution, and net ecosystem calcification - Andersson, Andreas J.; Gledhill, Dwight (Annual Review of Marine Science, 2013)
The persistence of carbonate structures on coral reefs is essential in providing habitats for a large number of species and maintaining the extraordinary biodiversity associated with these ecosystems. As a consequence of ocean acidification (OA), the ability of marine calcifiers to produce calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and their rate of CaCO3 production could decrease while rates of bioerosion and CaCO3 dissolution could increase, resulting in a transition from a condition of net accretion to one of net erosion. This would have negative consequences for the role and function of coral reefs and the eco-services they provide to dependent human communities. In this article, we review estimates of bioerosion, CaCO3 dissolution, and net ecosystem calcification (NEC) and how these processes will change in response to OA. Furthermore, we critically evaluate the observed relationships between NEC and seawater aragonite saturation state (Ωa). Finally, we propose that standardized NEC rates combined with observed changes in the ratios of dissolved inorganic carbon to total alkalinity owing to net reef metabolism may provide a biogeochemical tool to monitor the effects of OA in coral reef environments.
Keywords: CO2,CaCO3,aragonite,Mg calcite,calcification

Historical Climate and Climate Trends in the Midwestern USA. U.S. National Climate Assessment Midwest Technical Input Report - Andresen, Jeff; Hilberg, Steve; Kunkel, Ken (Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center, 2012)

Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NOx emissions in 11 major vehicle markets - Anenberg, Susan C.; Miller, Joshua; Minjares, Ray; Du, Li; Henze, Daven K.; Lacey, Forrest; Malley, Christopher S.; Emberson, Lisa; Franco, Vicente; Klimont, Zbigniew; Heyes, Chris (Nature, 2017)

Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change - Anenberg, Susan C.; Weinberger, Kate R.; Roman, Henry; Neumann, James E.; Crimmins, Allison; Fann, Neal; Martinich, Jeremy; Kinney, Patrick L. (GeoHealth, 2017)
Keywords: climate change aeroallergens asthma 1630 Impacts of global change 6304 Benefit-cost analysis 9350 North America

Dengue in the United States of America: A worsening scenario? - Añez, Germán; Rios, Maria (BioMed Research International, 2013)

Midwest - Angel, J.; Swanson, C.; Boustead, B.M.; Conlon, K.C.; Hall, K.R.; Jorns, J.L.; Kunkel, K.E.; Lemos, M.C.; Lofgren, B.; Ontl, T.A.; Posey, J.; Stone, K.; et al. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

An independent assessment of anthropogenic attribution statements for recent extreme temperature and rainfall events - Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Dáithí; Wehner, Michael; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Krishnan, Harinarayan; Collins, William (Journal of Climate, 2017)
The annual “State of the Climate” report, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has included a supplement since 2011 composed of brief analyses of the human influence on recent major extreme weather events. There are now several dozen extreme weather events examined in these supplements, but these studies have all differed in their data sources as well as their approaches to defining the events, analysing the events, and the consideration of the role of anthropogenic emissions. Here we re-examine most of these events using a single analytical approach and a single set of climate model and observational data sources. In response to recent studies recommending the importance of using multiple methods for extreme weather event attribution, we compare results from our analyses to those reported in the BAMS supplements collectively, with the aim of characterising the degree to which the lack of a common methodological framework may or may not influence overall conclusions. Results are broadly similar to those reported earlier for extreme temperature events, but disagree for a number of extreme precipitation events. Based on this, we advise that the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis in recent extreme weather attribution studies is important and should be considered when interpreting results, but as yet it has not introduced a systematic bias across these studies.

Equity impacts of urban land use planning for climate adaptation: Critical perspectives from the global north and south - Anguelovski, Isabelle; Shi, Linda; Chu, Eric; Gallagher, Daniel; Goh, Kian; Lamb, Zachary; Reeve, Kara; Teicher, Hannah (Journal of Planning Education and Research, 2016)
A growing number of cities are preparing for climate change impacts by developing adaptation plans. However, little is known about how these plans and their implementation affect the vulnerability of the urban poor. We critically assess initiatives in eight cities worldwide and find that land use planning for climate adaptation can exacerbate socio-spatial inequalities across diverse developmental and environmental conditions. We argue that urban adaptation injustices fall into two categories: acts of commission, when interventions negatively affect or displace poor communities, and acts of omission, when they protect and prioritize elite groups at the expense of the urban poor.
Keywords: climate change urban Adaptation climate justice Vulnerability

Understanding climate adaptation on public lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for monitoring and tracking progress - Anhalt-Depies, Christine M.; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R.; Sharp, Anthony K.; Martin, Karl J. (Environmental Management, 2016)
There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers’ experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) - Anisimov, O.A.; Vaughan, D.G.; Callaghan, T.V.; Furgal, C.; Marchant, H.; Prowse, T.D.; Vilhjálmsson, H.; Walsh, J.E. (Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007)

Center for Climate & Heatlh - ANTHC-Climate and Health (Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortuim (ANTHC), 2018)

Food Security - ANTHC-Food Security (Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (ANTHC), 2017)

Local Environmental Observer (LEO) Network - ANTHC-LEO (Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (ANTHC), 2017)

Newsletters: Northern Climate Observer - ANTHC-Newsletters (Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortuim (ANTHC), 2018)

One Health Group - ANTHC-One Health Group (Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (ANTHC), 2017)

The economic impact of substantial sea-level rise - Anthoff, David; Nicholls, Robert J.; Tol, Richard S. J. (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2010)
Using the FUND model, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2-m/century and a range of socio-economic scenarios downscaled to the national level, including the four SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) storylines. Unlike a traditional impact assessment, this analysis considers impacts after balancing the costs of retreat with the costs of protection, including the effects of coastal squeeze. While the costs of sea-level rise increase with greater rise due to growing damage and protection costs, the model suggests that an optimum response in a benefit-cost sense remains widespread protection of developed coastal areas, as identified in earlier analyses. The socio-economic scenarios are also important in terms of influencing these costs. In terms of the four components of costs considered in FUND, protection dominates, with substantial costs from wetland loss under some scenarios. The regional distribution of costs shows that a few regions experience most of the costs, especially East Asia, North America, Europe and South Asia. Importantly, this analysis suggests that protection is much more likely and rational than is widely assumed, even with a large rise in sea level. This is underpinned by the strong economic growth in all the SRES scenarios: without this growth, the benefits of protection are significantly reduced. It should also be noted that some important limitations to the analysis are discussed, which collectively suggest that protection may not be as widespread as suggested in the FUND results.

Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience - Anthony, Kenneth R. N.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Mumby, Peter J.; Marshall, Paul A.; Cao, Long; Hoegh-Guldberg, O. V. E. (Global Change Biology, 2011)
Keywords: climate change coral reefs herbivory ocean acidification resilience

Maximizing establishment and survivorship of field-collected and greenhouse-cultivated biocrusts in a semi-cold desert - Antoninka, Anita; Bowker, Matthew A.; Chuckran, Peter; Barger, Nichole N.; Reed, Sasha; Belnap, Jayne (Plant and Soil, 2018)
Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are soil-surface communities in drylands, dominated by cyanobacteria, mosses, and lichens. They provide key ecosystem functions by increasing soil stability and influencing soil hydrologic, nutrient, and carbon cycles. Because of this, methods to reestablish biocrusts in damaged drylands are needed. Here we test the reintroduction of field-collected vs. greenhouse-cultured biocrusts for rehabilitation.

Harmful Algal Bloom Information System for Kachemak Bay, Alaska - AOOS (Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS), 2017)

Resolution on Affirming Psychologists’ Role in Addressing Global Climate Change - APA Council of Representatives (American Psychological Association (APA))

Developing Climate Change–Resilient Designs for Highway Infrastructure in British Columbia - APEGBC (Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of British Columbia, 2016)

Concerning Caribbean Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Small Island Cities - Aponte-Gonzalez, Felix (Planning and Environmental Management, 2014)

An overview of occupational risks from climate change - Applebaum, Katie M.; Graham, Jay; Gray, George M.; LaPuma, Peter; McCormick, Sabrina A.; Northcross, Amanda; Perry, Melissa J. (Current Environmental Health Reports, 2016)
Changes in atmosphere and temperature are affecting multiple environmental indicators from extreme heat events to global air quality. Workers will be uniquely affected by climate change, and the occupational impacts of major shifts in atmospheric and weather conditions need greater attention. Climate change-related exposures most likely to differentially affect workers in the USA and globally include heat, ozone, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, other chemicals, pathogenic microorganisms, vector-borne diseases, violence, and wildfires. Epidemiologic evidence documents a U-, J-, or V-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Whereas heat-related morbidity and mortality risks are most evident in agriculture, many other outdoor occupational sectors are also at risk, including construction, transportation, landscaping, firefighting, and other emergency response operations. The toxicity of chemicals change under hyperthermic conditions, particularly for pesticides and ozone. Combined with climate-related changes in chemical transport and distribution, these interactions represent unique health risks specifically to workers. Links between heat and interpersonal conflict including violence require attention because they pose threats to the safety of emergency medicine, peacekeeping and humanitarian relief, and public safety professionals. Recommendations for anticipating how US workers will be most susceptible to climate change include formal monitoring systems for agricultural workers; modeling scenarios focusing on occupational impacts of extreme climate events including floods, wildfires, and chemical spills; and national research agenda setting focusing on control and mitigation of occupational susceptibility to climate change.

Evaluating the impact of future climate change on irrigated maize production in Kansas - Araya, A.; Kisekka, I.; Lin, X.; Vara Prasad, P. V.; Gowda, P. H.; Rice, C.; Andales, A. (Climate Risk Management, 2017)
Keywords: Maize Irrigation RCP GCM DSSAT-CSM Climate change

Understanding Corn Belt farmer perspectives on climate change to inform engagement strategies for adaptation and mitigation - Arbuckle, J.G.; Hobbs, J.; Loy, A.; Morton, L.W.; Prokopy, L.S.; Tyndall, J. (Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2014)
Development of extension and outreach that effectively engage farmers in climate change adaptation and/or mitigation activities can be informed by an improved understanding of farmers' perspectives on climate change and related impacts. This research employed latent class analysis (LCA) to analyze data from a survey of 4,778 farmers from 11 US Corn Belt states. The research focused on two related research questions: (1) to what degree do farmers differ on key measures of beliefs about climate change, experience with extreme weather, perceived risks to agriculture, efficacy, and level of support for public and private adaptive and mitigative action; and (2) are there potential areas of common ground among farmers? Results indicate that farmers have highly heterogeneous perspectives, and six distinct classes of farmers are identified. We label these as the following: the concerned (14%), the uneasy (25%), the uncertain (25%), the unconcerned (13%), the confident (18%), and the detached (5%). These groups of farmers differ primarily in terms of beliefs about climate change, the degree to which they had experienced extreme weather, and risk perceptions. Despite substantial differences on these variables, areas of similarity were discerned on variables measuring farmers' (1) confidence that they will be able to deal with increases in weather variability and (2) support for public and private efforts to help farmers adapt to increased weather variability. These results can inform segmented approaches to outreach that target subpopulations of farmers as well as broader engagement strategies that would reach wider populations. Further, findings suggest that strategies with specific reference to climate change might be most effective in engaging the subpopulations of farmers who believe that climate change is occurring and a threat, but that use of less charged terms such as weather variability would likely be more effective with a broader range of farmers. Outreach efforts that (1) appeal to farmers' problem solving capacity and (2) employ terms such as “weather variability” instead of more charged terms such as “climate change” are more likely to be effective with a wider farmer audience.

Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: Assessing adaptation to climate change - Arbuthnott, Katherine; Hajat, Shakoor; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris (Environmental Health, 2016)
In the context of a warming climate and increasing urbanisation (with the associated urban heat island effect), interest in understanding temperature related health effects is growing. Previous reviews have examined how the temperature-mortality relationship varies by geographical location. There have been no reviews examining the empirical evidence for changes in population susceptibility to the effects of heat and/or cold over time. The objective of this paper is to review studies which have specifically examined variations in temperature related mortality risks over the 20th and 21st centuries and determine whether population adaptation to heat and/or cold has occurred. Methods: We searched five electronic databases combining search terms for three main concepts: temperature, health outcomes and changes in vulnerability or adaptation. Studies included were those which quantified the risk of heat related mortality with changing ambient temperature in a specific location over time, or those which compared mortality outcomes between two different extreme temperature events (heatwaves) in one location. Results: The electronic searches returned 9183 titles and abstracts, of which eleven studies examining the effects of ambient temperature over time were included and six studies comparing the effect of different heatwaves at discrete time points were included. Of the eleven papers that quantified the risk of, or absolute heat related mortality over time, ten found a decrease in susceptibility over time of which five found the decrease to be significant. The magnitude of the decrease varied by location. Only two studies attempted to quantitatively attribute changes in susceptibility to specific adaptive measures and found no significant association between the risk of heat related mortality and air conditioning prevalence within or between cities over time. Four of the six papers examining effects of heatwaves found a decrease in expected mortality in later years. Five studies examined the risk of cold. In contrast to the changes in heat related mortality observed, only one found a significant decrease in cold related mortality in later time periods. Conclusions: There is evidence that across a number of different settings, population susceptibility to heat and heatwaves has been decreasing. These changes in heat related susceptibility have important implications for health impact assessments of future heat related risk. A similar decrease in cold related mortality was not shown. Adaptation to heat has implications for future planning, particularly in urban areas, with anticipated increases in temperature due to climate change.
Keywords: urban health heat climate change

Regional Snapshot: 2016 Population Estimates - ARC 33°N (Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC), 2016)

Population & Employment Forecasts - ARC (Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC), 2017)

Mission Creek Sea Level Risk Adaptation Study: Waterfront Strategies for Long-Term Urban Resiliency - Arcadis US; CallisonRTKL; Wageningen University (San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR), 2016)

Predicting climate change impacts on the amount and duration of autumn colors in a New England forest - Archetti, Marco; Richardson, Andrew D.; O'Keefe, John; Delpierre, Nicolas (PLOS ONE, 2013)
Climate change affects the phenology of many species. As temperature and precipitation are thought to control autumn color change in temperate deciduous trees, it is possible that climate change might also affect the phenology of autumn colors. Using long-term data for eight tree species in a New England hardwood forest, we show that the timing and cumulative amount of autumn color are correlated with variation in temperature and precipitation at specific times of the year. A phenological model driven by accumulated cold degree-days and photoperiod reproduces most of the interspecific and interannual variability in the timing of autumn colors. We use this process-oriented model to predict changes in the phenology of autumn colors to 2099, showing that, while responses vary among species, climate change under standard IPCC projections will lead to an overall increase in the amount of autumn colors for most species.

Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States - Archfield, S. A.; Hirsch, R. M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: floods trends climate 1616 Climate variability 1821 Floods 1860 Streamflow 1807 Climate impacts 1833 Hydroclimatology

Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009 Report - Arctic Council (Arctic Council, Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME), 2009)

Conference Statement - Arctic Observing Summit (Arctic Observing Summit (AOS), 2016)