Economic Contributions of Missouri Agriculture and Forestry - Decision Innovation Solutions (Missouri Department of Agriculture, 2016)

Economic Contributions of Minnesota's Forest Products Industry—2011 Edition - Deckard, Donald L.; Skurla, James A. (Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 2011)

Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise - DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David (Nature, 2016)
Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6–9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.

Trends and Implications of Climate Change on National and International Security - Defense Science Board (Defense Science Board (DSB), 2011)

Indirect effect of climate change: Shifts in ratsnake behavior alter intensity and timing of avian nest predation - DeGregorio, Brett A.; Westervelt, James D.; Weatherhead, Patrick J.; Sperry, Jinelle H. (Ecological Modelling, 2015)
Keywords: Activity patterns Climate change Forest edge Ratsnakes Netlogo Predator–prey interactions

Literature review: Impact of climate change on pesticide use - Delcour, Ilse; Spanoghe, Pieter; Uyttendaele, Mieke (Food Research International, 2015)

The relationship of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions to the southern California wildfires of 2003 - Delfino, R.J.; Brummel, S.; Wu, J.; Stern, H.; Ostro, B.; Lipsett, M.; Winer, A.; Street, D.H.; Zhang, L.; Tjoa, T.; Gillen, D.L. (Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 2009)

The 4Rs for cover crops and other advances in cover crop management for environmental quality - Delgado, Jorge A.; Gantzer, Clark J. (Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2015)

Conservation practices for climate change adaptation - Delgado, Jorge A.; Nearing, Mark A.; Rice, Charles W. (Advances in Agronomy, 2013)
Keywords: Adaptation Climate change Drought Extreme events Conservation practices Mitigation Soil quality Water quality

Temperature dependence of trophic interactions are driven by asymmetry of species responses and foraging strategy - Dell, Anthony I.; Pawar, Samraat; Savage, Van M. (Journal of Animal Ecology, 2014)
Keywords: climate change communities consumer–resource dynamics food webs predator–prey scaling species interactions temperature

Ch. 4: Energy supply and use - Dell, Jan; Tierney, Susan; Franco, Guido; Newell, Richard G.; Richels, Rich; Weyant, John; Wilbanks, Thomas J. (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century - Dell, Melissa; Jones, Benjamin F.; Olken, Benjamin A. (American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012)

Local foods systems and community economic development - Deller, Steven C.; Lamie, David; Stickel, Maureen (Community Development, 2017)

Power and Place: Indian Education in America - Deloria Jr., V.; Wildcat, D. (Fulcrum Publishing, 2001)

Green Infrastructure Designs: Scalable Solutions to Local Challenges - Delta Institute (Delta Institute, 2015)

The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere - Delworth, Thomas L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Yang, Xiaosong; Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Rong (Nature Geoscience, 2016)

Increasing insect reactions in Alaska: Is this related to changing climate? - Demain, J. G.; Gessner, B. D.; McLaughlin, J. B.; Sikes, D. S.; Foote, J. T. (Allergy and Asthma Proceedings, 2009)
In 2006, Fairbanks, AK, reported its first cases of fatal anaphylaxis as a result of Hymenoptera stings concurrent with an increase in insect reactions observed throughout the state. This study was designed to determine whether Alaska medical visits for insect reactions have increased. We conducted a retrospective review of three independent patient databases in Alaska to identify trends of patients seeking medical care for adverse reactions after insect-related events. For each database, an insect reaction was defined as a claim for the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition (ICD-9), codes E9053, E906.4, and 989.5. Increases in insect reactions in each region were compared with temperature changes in the same region. Each database revealed a statistically significant trend in patients seeking care for insect reactions. Fairbanks Memorial Hospital Emergency Department reported a fourfold increase in patients in 2006 compared with previous years (1992-2005). The Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology Center of Alaska reported a threefold increase in patients from 1999 to 2002 to 2003 to 2007. A retrospective review of the Alaska Medicaid database from 1999 to 2006 showed increases in medical claims for insect reactions among all regions, with the largest percentage of increases occurring in the most northern areas. Increases in insect reactions in Alaska have occurred after increases in annual and winter temperatures, and these findings may be causally related. Copyright © 2009, OceanSide Publications, Inc.
Cited By (since 1996):8 Export Date: 7 November 2013 Source: Scopus CODEN: AAPRF PubMed ID: 19549424 Language of Original Document: English Correspondence Address: Demain, J. G.; Department of Pediatrics, Allergy, Asthma and Immunology, Center of Alaska, University of Washington, Ankorage, AK, United States; email: jdemain@allergyalaska.com
Keywords: Alaska Anaphylaxis Climate change Global warming Hymenoptera Stinging insect Temperature increase Wasp Yellow jacket article controlled study emergency ward human insect allergy international classification of diseases major clinical study medical care patient care United States animal climate emergency health service factual database hypersensitivity immunology insect insect bite medical record retrospective study statistics Animals Databases, Factual Emergency Service, Hospital Humans Insect Bites and Stings Insects Medical Records Retrospective Studies

Regional climate change projections of streamflow characteristics in the Northeast and Midwest U.S - Demaria, Eleonora M. C.; Palmer, Richard N.; Roundy, Joshua K. (Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2016)
Keywords: Streamflow peaks Low flows Trend analysis Intense precipitation Base flows

The effects of climate change on seasonal snowpack and the hydrology of the Northeastern and Upper Midwest United States - Demaria, Eleonora M. C.; Roundy, Joshua K.; Wi, Sungwook; Palmer, Richard N. (Journal of Climate, 2016)
The potential effects of climate change on the snowpack of the northeastern and upper Midwest United States are assessed using statistically downscaled climate projections from an ensemble of 10 climate models and a macroscale hydrological model. Climate simulations for the region indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures and wetter conditions for the snow season (November–April) during the twenty-first century. However, despite projected increases in seasonal precipitation, statistically significant negative trends in snow water equivalent (SWE) are found for the region. Snow cover is likely to migrate northward in the future as a result of warmer-than-present air temperatures, with higher loss rates in northern latitudes and at high elevation. Decreases in future (2041–95) snow cover in early spring will likely affect the timing of maximum spring peak streamflow, with earlier peaks predicted in more than 80% of the 124 basins studied.
Keywords: Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Climate change,Hydrologic cycle,Hydrology,Snow cover,Models and modeling,Hydrologic models

Mitigating and adapting to climate change: Multi-functional and multi-scale assessment of green urban infrastructure - Demuzere, M.; Orru, K.; Heidrich, O.; Olazabal, E.; Geneletti, D.; Orru, H.; Bhave, A. G.; Mittal, N.; Feliu, E.; Faehnle, M. (Journal of Environmental Management, 2014)
Keywords: Green urban infrastructure Climate change Ecosystem services Biophysical benefit Social benefit Spatial scale

The Long Walk: The Forced Navajo Exile - Denetdale, Jennifer (Landmark Events in Native American History, 2007)

Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011 - Dennison, Philip E.; Brewer, Simon C.; Arnold, James D.; Moritz, Max A. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Keywords: wildfire climate variability remote sensing 0468 Natural hazards 0480 Remote sensing 1616 Climate variability 1632 Land cover change 1637 Regional climate change

Integrating water resources and power generation: The energy–water nexus in Illinois - DeNooyer, Tyler A.; Peschel, Joshua M.; Zhang, Zhenxing; Stillwell, Ashlynn S. (Applied Energy, 2016)
Keywords: Policy Power generation Scenario analysis Sustainability Water resources

Climate-resilient pathways: Adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development - Denton, F.; Wilbanks, T.J.; Abeysinghe, A.C.; Burton, I.; Gao, Q.; Lemos, M.C.; Masui, T.; O’Brien, K.L.; Warner, K. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 2014)

The Effects of Water Quantification on Tribal Economies: Evidence from the Western U.S. Reservations - Deol, Suhina (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2017)

Nonstationary Weather Patterns and Extreme Events: Workshop Report - Department of Defense (Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP), 2017)

Operational Group Sandy Technical Progress Report - Department of the Interior Strategic Sciences Group (U.S. Department of the Interior, Strategic Sciences Group, 2013)

Green infrastructure for urban climate adaptation: How do residents’ views on climate impacts and green infrastructure shape adaptation preferences? - Derkzen, Marthe L.; van Teeffelen, Astrid J. A.; Verburg, Peter H. (Landscape and Urban Planning, 2017)
Cities are particularly prone to the effects of climate change. One way for cities to adapt is by enhancing their green infrastructure (GI) to mitigate the impacts of heat waves and flooding. While alternative GI design options exist, there are many unknowns regarding public support for the various options. This study aims to fill this gap by performing a socio-cultural valuation of urban GI for climate adaptation that encompasses multiple dimensions: people’s notion of and concerns about climate impacts, the degree to which people acknowledge the benefits of GI to alleviate such impacts, and people’s preferences for different GI measures, including their willingness to pay (WTP). Data were collected through photo-assisted face-to-face surveys (n = 200) with residents in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and linked to GI GIS data. Respondents had a notion of and concerns about climate impacts, but did not necessarily acknowledge that GI may help tackle these issues. Yet, when residents were informed about the adaptation capacity of different GI measures, their preferences shifted towards the most effective options. There was no information effect, however, on people’s WTP for GI, which was mostly related to income and ethnicity. Our study shows that economic valuation alone would miss nuances that socio-cultural valuation as applied in this paper can reveal. The method revealed preferences for particular adaptation designs, and assists in detecting why policy for climate adaptation may be hampered. Understanding people’s views on climate impacts and adaptation options is crucial for prioritizing effective policy responses in the face of climate change.
Keywords: ecosystem services urban climate change Green infrastructure Adaptation non-US

Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate - Derner, Justin; Briske, David; Reeves, Matt; Brown-Brandl, Tami; Meehan, Miranda; Blumenthal, Dana; Travis, William; Augustine, David; Wilmer, Hailey; Scasta, Derek; Hendrickson, John; Volesky, Jerry; et al. (Climatic Change, 2018)
The Northern Great Plains (NGP) region of the USA—which comprises Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska—is a largely rural area that provides numerous ecosystem services, including livestock products, cultural services, and conservation of biological diversity. The region contains 25% of the Nation’s beef cattle and approximately one-third of the confined beef cattle, as well as the largest remaining native prairie in the US—the Northern Mixedgrass Prairie. With rising atmospheric CO2, the NGP is projected to experience warmer and longer growing seasons, greater climatic variability, and more extreme events (e.g., increased occurrence of large precipitation events). These climatic changes may affect livestock production both directly via physiological impacts on animals and indirectly via modifications to forage, invasion of undesirable plants, and increased exposure to parasites. This raises concerns about the vulnerability of grazing livestock operations and confined livestock operations to projected changes in mid- (2050) and late- (2085) twenty-first century climate. Our objectives are to (1) describe the NGP’s exposure to temperature and precipitation trends, inter-annual variability, and extreme events; (2) evaluate the sensitivity of beef cattle production to direct and indirect effects imposed by these projected climatic changes; and (3) provide a typology of adaptation strategies to minimize adverse consequences of projected changes and maximize beneficial consequences. Agricultural managers have developed considerable adaptive capacity to contend with environmental and economic variability. However, projected climatic changes, especially the increased frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, will require even greater adaptive capacity to maintain viable production systems. Consequently, regional vulnerability to projected climatic changes will be determined not only by ecological responses but also by the adaptive capacity of individual managers. Adaptive capacity in the NGP will differ from other regions, in part because projections suggest some opportunities for increased livestock production. Adaptations in both grazing and confined beef cattle systems will require enhanced decision-making skills capable of integrating biophysical, social, and economic considerations. Social learning networks that support integration of experimental and experiential knowledge—such as lessons learned from early adopters and involvement with science-based organizations—can help enhance decision-making and climate adaptation planning. Many adaptations have already been implemented by a subset of producers in this region, providing opportunities for assessment, further development, and greater adoption. Context-specific decision-making can also be enhanced through science-management partnerships, which aim to build adaptive capacity that recognizes multiple production and conservation/environmental goals.

Adaptive management for drought on rangelands - Derner, Justin D.; Augustine, David J. (Rangelands, 2016)
Keywords: enterprise flexibility grassbanking herd structure resiliency risk management risk reduction

Usable science: Soil health - Derner, Justin D.; Stanley, Charles; Ellis, Chad (Rangelands, 2016)
(Chuck)
Keywords: infiltration nutrient cycling organic matter productive capacity resiliency soil structure

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures - Deryng, Delphine; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff; Warren, Rachel (Environmental Research Letters, 2014)
Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield ( Δ Y = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half ( Δ Y = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter ( Δ Y = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity - Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Muller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Conway, Declan; Ruane, Alex C.; Gerten, Dieter; Jones, James W.; Khabarov, Nikolay; Olin, Stefan; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield - Deryng, D.; Sacks, W.J.; Barford, C.C.; Ramankutty, N. (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2011)

Sea-level rise and drought interactions accelerate forest decline on the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA - Desantis, Larisa R. G.; Bhotika, Smriti; Williams, Kimberlyn; Putz, Francis E. (Global Change Biology, 2007)
Keywords: climate change global warming Juniperus virginiana La Niña Sabal palmetto salt tolerance sea-level rise species richness stable isotopes tidal flooding

Effects of climate on emerald ash borer mortality and the potential for ash survival in North America - DeSantis, Ryan D.; Moser, W. Keith; Gormanson, Dale D.; Bartlett, Marshall G.; Vermunt, Bradley (Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2013)
Keywords: Agrilus planipennis Climate Forest Inventory and Analysis Fraxinus Temperature modeling North America

The economic impacts of climate change: Evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather - Deschênes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael (American Economic Review, 2007)

Climate change, mortality, and adaptation: Evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US - Deschênes, O.; Greenstone, M. (American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2011)

Sea surface temperature variability: Patterns and mechanisms - Deser, Clara; Alexander, Michael A.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Phillips, Adam S. (Annual Review of Marine Science, 2010)
Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on interannual and longer timescales result from a combination of atmospheric and oceanic processes. These SST anomaly patterns may be due to intrinsic modes of atmospheric circulation variability that imprint themselves upon the SST field mainly via surface energy fluxes. Examples include SST fluctuations in the Southern Ocean associated with the Southern Annular Mode, a tripolar pattern of SST anomalies in the North Atlantic associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a pan-Pacific mode known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (with additional contributions from oceanic processes). They may also result from coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the tropical Indo-Pacific, the tropical Atlantic Niño, and the cross-equatorial meridional modes in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. Finally, patterns of SST variability may arise from intrinsic oceanic modes, notably the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate - Deser, Clara; Knutti, Reto; Solomon, Susan; Phillips, Adam S. (Nature Climate Change, 2012)

Local conditions of drought-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa - Detges, Adrien (Journal of Peace Research, 2016)
Despite growing concerns about the possible security implications of extreme precipitation shortfalls in vulnerable and politically fragile regions, the particular conditions that make armed violence more or less likely in times of drought remain poorly understood. Using a spatially disaggregated research design and focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, the present analysis assesses how far violent and nonviolent outcomes in the wake of drought can be accounted for by regional differences in the provision of key infrastructures that help coping with drought and preventing violence. The results indicate that civil conflict events in connection with drought are more likely in administrative areas with poorly developed road infrastructures. Drought-related communal violence, on the other hand, is more likely in regions where an important part of the population lacks access to an improved water source. Thus, while the provision of key infrastructures seems to moderate local conflict risks in connection with drought, there are nevertheless important distinctions with regard to different types of infrastructures and forms of armed violence. However, the importance of precipitation shortfalls as a conflict-facilitating factor in sub-Saharan Africa should not be overstated, as the overall contribution of drought measures to predicting violent events is modest in all calculated models.
Keywords: armed conflict,disaggregated conflict analysis,drought,roads,sub-Saharan Africa,water infrastructures

Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California—A multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes - Dettinger, M. (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2011)

Western water and climate change - Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris (Ecological Applications, 2015)
Keywords: Centennial Paper climate change Colorado River Klamath River Rio Grande Sacramento–San Joaquin Bay Delta water resources western United States

Atmospheric rivers as drought busters on the U.S. West Coast - Dettinger, Michael D. (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2013)
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have, in recent years, been recognized as the cause of the large majority of major floods in rivers all along the U.S. West Coast and as the source of 30%–50% of all precipitation in the same region. The present study surveys the frequency with which ARs have played a critical role as a common cause of the end of droughts on the West Coast. This question was based on the observation that, in most cases, droughts end abruptly as a result of the arrival of an especially wet month or, more exactly, a few very large storms. This observation is documented using both Palmer Drought Severity Index and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index measures of drought occurrence for climate divisions across the conterminous United States from 1895 to 2010. When the individual storm sequences that contributed most to the wet months that broke historical West Coast droughts from 1950 to 2010 were evaluated, 33%–74% of droughts were broken by the arrival of landfalling AR storms. In the Pacific Northwest, 60%–74% of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by the arrival of AR storms. In California, about 33%–40% of all persistent drought endings have been brought about by landfalling AR storms, with more localized low pressure systems responsible for many of the remaining drought breaks.
Keywords: North America,Drought,Extreme events,Precipitation,Storm environments

Large-scale atmospheric forcing of recent trends toward early snowmelt runoff in California - Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R. (Journal of Climate, 1995)

Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California - Dettinger, Michael D.; Martin Ralph, F.; Hughes, Mimi; Das, Tapash; Neiman, Paul; Cox, Dale; Estes, Gary; Reynolds, David; Hartman, Robert; Cayan, Daniel; Jones, Lucy (Natural Hazards, 2012)
The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications.

Potential of intelligent transportation systems in mitigating adverse weather impacts on road mobility: A review - Dey, K. C.; Mishra, A.; Chowdhury, M. (IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2015)
Keywords: innovation management intelligent transportation systems mobile computing roads socio-economic effects weather forecasting ITS innovations ITS-based initiatives RWIS adverse weather conditions adverse weather impacts governmental weather services mobile road weather data collection proactive maintenance activities reactive maintenance activities road mobility road weather events road weather forecasting techniques road weather information system route-specific road weather conditions society economic output surface transportation system system-wide deployments Computer crashes Maintenance engineering Snow Climate change connected vehicles extreme weather events intelligent transportation systems (ITS) road weather winter road maintenance

National Healthcare Disparities Report 2013 - DHHS (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, 2014)

Regional Resiliency Assessment Program - DHS (U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), 2017)

Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data (HIFLD) [web tool] - DHS (U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), 2018)

"Thousand-year" downpour led to deadly West Virginia floods - Di Liberto, Tom (Climate.gov News & Features, 2016)

Multi-year persistence of the 2014/15 North Pacific marine heatwave - Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Mantua, Nathan (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

A potential disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet: Implications for economic analyses of climate policy - Diaz, Delavane; Keller, Klaus (American Economic Review, 2016)

Quantifying the economic risks of climate change - Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Valuing Potential Climate Impacts: A Review of Current Limitations and the Research Frontier - Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances (EPRI, 2017)

Estimating global damages from sea level rise with the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM) - Diaz, Delavane B. (Climatic Change, 2016)
Coastal sector impacts from sea level rise (SLR) are a key component of the projected economic damages of climate change, a major input to decision-making and design of climate policy. Moreover, the ultimate global costs to coastal resources will depend strongly on adaptation, society’s response to cope with the local impacts. This paper presents a new open-source optimization model to assess global coastal impacts from SLR from the perspective of economic efficiency. The Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM) determines the optimal strategy for adaptation at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments, as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006), based on their socioeconomic characteristics and the potential impacts of relative sea level rise and uncertain sea level extremes. A deterministic application of CIAM demonstrates the model’s ability to assess local impacts and direct costs, choose the least-cost adaptation, and estimate global net damages for several climate scenarios that account for both global and local components of SLR (Kopp et al. 2014). CIAM finds that there is large potential for coastal adaptation to reduce the expected impacts of SLR compared to the alternative of no adaptation, lowering global net present costs through 2100 by a factor of seven to less than $1.7 trillion, although this does not include initial transition costs to overcome an under-adapted current state. In addition to producing aggregate estimates, CIAM results can also be interpreted at the local level, where retreat (e.g., relocate inland) is often a more cost-effective adaptation strategy than protect (e.g., construct physical defenses).

Economic Impacts of Wildfire - Diaz, John M. (Southern Fire Exchange, 2012)

Shifting paradigms, changing waters: Transitioning to integrated urban water management in the coastal city of Dunedin, USA - Díaz, Pacia; Stanek, Paul; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Yeh, Daniel H. (Sustainable Cities and Society, 2016)
Keywords: Coastal cities Urban water cycle IUWM Urban well field Water recycling Water conservation

Spreading dead zones and consequences for marine ecosystems - Díaz, R.J.; Rosenberg, R. (Science, 2008)

Introduction to environmental and economic consequences of hypoxia - Díaz, Robert J.; Rosenberg, Rutger (International Journal of Water Resources Development, 2011)

Heat in the southeastern United States: Characteristics, trends, and potential health impact - Diem, Jeremy E.; Stauber, Christine E.; Rothenberg, Richard (PLOS ONE, 2017)
High summer temperatures in extratropical areas have an impact on the public’s health, mainly through heat stress, high air pollution concentrations, and the transmission of tropical diseases. The purpose of this study is to examine the current characteristics of heat events and future projections of summer apparent temperature (AT)–and associated health concerns–throughout the southeastern United States. Synoptic climatology was used to assess the atmospheric characteristics of extreme heat days (EHDs) from 1979–2015. Ozone concentrations also were examined during EHDs. Trends in summer-season AT over the 37-year period and correlations between AT and atmospheric circulation were determined. Mid-century estimates of summer AT were calculated using downscaled data from an ensemble of global climate models. EHDs throughout the Southeast were characterized by ridging and anticyclones over the Southeast and the presence of moist tropical air masses. Exceedingly high ozone concentrations occurred on EHDs in the Atlanta area and throughout central North Carolina. While summer ATs did not increase significantly from 1979–2015, summer ATs are projected to increase substantially by mid-century, with most the Southeast having ATs similar to that of present-day southern Florida (i.e., a tropical climate). High ozone concentrations should continue to occur during future heat events. Large urban areas are expected to be the most affected by the future warming, resulting from intensifying and expanding urban heat islands, a large increase in heat-vulnerable populations, and climate conditions that will be highly suitable for tropical-disease transmission by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This nexus of vulnerability creates the potential for heat-related morbidity and mortality, as well as the appearance of disease not previously seen in the region. These effects can be attenuated by policies that reduce urban heat (e.g., cool roofs and green roofs) and that improve infrastructure (e.g. emergency services, conditioned space).

New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach - Dieng, H. B.; Cazenave, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Ablain, M. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
We revisit the global mean sea level (GMSL) budget during the whole altimetry era (January 1993 to December 2015) using a large number of data sets. The budget approach allows quantifying the TOPEX A altimeter drift (amounting 1.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr over 1993–1998). Accounting for this correction and using ensemble means for the GMSL and components lead to closure of the sea level budget (trend of the residual time series being 0.0 ± 0.22 mm/yr). The new GMSL rate over January 1993 to December 2015 is now close to 3.0 mm/yr. An important increase of the GMSL rate, of 0.8 mm/yr, is found during the second half of the altimetry era (2004–2015) compared to the 1993–2004 time span, mostly due to Greenland mass loss increase and also to slight increase of all other components of the budget.
Keywords: Sea level 1641 Sea level change 4556 Sea level: variations and mean satellite altimetry sea level budget

From farm fields to wetlands - Dierkes, Christina (Twine Line, 2012)

Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015 - Dieter, Cheryl A.; Maupin, Molly A.; Caldwell, Rodney R.; Harris, Melissa A.; Ivahnenko, Tamara I.; Lovelace, John K.; Barber, Nancy L.; Linsey, Kristin S. (Circular, 2018)

The impact of temperature stress and pesticide exposure on mortality and disease susceptibility of endangered Pacific salmon - Dietrich, Joseph P.; Van Gaest, Ahna L.; Strickland, Stacy A.; Arkoosh, Mary R. (Chemosphere, 2014)
Keywords: Salmon Malathion Disease susceptibility Temperature Multiple stressors

Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions? - Diez, Jeffrey M.; D’Antonio, Carla M.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Grosholz, Edwin D.; Olden, Julian D.; Sorte, Cascade J. B.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Early, Regan; Ibáñez, Inés; Jones, Sierra J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; et al. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2012)

Beyond seasonal climate: Statistical estimation of phenological responses to weather - Diez, Jeffrey M.; Ibáñez, Inés; Silander, John A.; Primack, Richard; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Kobori, Hiromi; Sen, Ananda; James, Timothy Y. (Ecological Applications, 2014)
Keywords: climate daily models frost events phenology thermal forcing weather events

Influence of modern land cover on the climate of the United States - Diffenbaugh, Noah S. (Climate Dynamics, 2009)

Changes in ecologically critical terrestrial climate conditions - Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Field, C. B. (Science, 2013)
Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming over the past century, with temperatures increasing about twice as rapidly over land as over the oceans. Here, we review the likelihood of continued changes in terrestrial climate, including analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate model ensemble. Inertia toward continued emissions creates potential 21st-century global warming that is comparable in magnitude to that of the largest global changes in the past 65 million years but is orders of magnitude more rapid. The rate of warming implies a velocity of climate change and required range shifts of up to several kilometers per year, raising the prospect of daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially in the context of extensive land use and degradation, changes in frequency and severity of extreme events, and interactions with other stresses.
Keywords: Climate Change Ecology Ecosystem Forecasting Global Warming Humans Models, Theoretical Temperature

Using climate impacts indicators to evaluate climate model ensembles: Temperature suitability of premium winegrape cultivation in the United States - Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin (Climate Dynamics, 2013)
We explore the potential to improve understanding of the climate system by directly targeting climate model analyses at specific indicators of climate change impact. Using the temperature suitability of premium winegrape cultivation as a climate impacts indicator, we quantify the inter- and intra-ensemble spread in three climate model ensembles: a physically uniform multi-member ensemble consisting of the RegCM3 high-resolution climate model nested within the NCAR CCSM3 global climate model; the multi-model NARCCAP ensemble consisting of single realizations of multiple high-resolution climate models nested within multiple global climate models; and the multi-model CMIP3 ensemble consisting of realizations of multiple global climate models. We find that the temperature suitability for premium winegrape cultivation is substantially reduced throughout the high-value growing areas of California and the Columbia Valley region (eastern Oregon and Washington) in all three ensembles in response to changes in temperature projected for the mid-twenty first century period. The reductions in temperature suitability are driven primarily by projected increases in mean growing season temperature and occurrence of growing season severe hot days. The intra-ensemble spread in the simulated climate change impact is smaller in the single-model ensemble than in the multi-model ensembles, suggesting that the uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability is smaller than the uncertainty arising from climate model formulation. In addition, the intra-ensemble spread is similar in the NARCCAP nested climate model ensemble and the CMIP3 global climate model ensemble, suggesting that the uncertainty arising from the model formulation of fine-scale climate processes is not smaller than the uncertainty arising from the formulation of large-scale climate processes. Correction of climate model biases substantially reduces both the inter- and intra-ensemble spread in projected climate change impact, particularly for the multi-model ensembles, suggesting that—at least for some systems—the projected impacts of climate change could be more robust than the projected climate change. Extension of this impacts-based analysis to a larger suite of impacts indicators will deepen our understanding of future climate change uncertainty by focusing on the climate phenomena that most directly influence natural and human systems.

Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing - Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin; Trapp, Robert J. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
Although severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States, their response to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained a prominent source of uncertainty for climate change impacts assessment. We find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5, global climate model ensemble indicates robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States in response to further global warming. For spring and autumn, these robust increases emerge before mean global warming of 2 °C above the preindustrial baseline. We also find that days with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong low-level wind shear increase in occurrence, suggesting an increasing likelihood of atmospheric conditions that contribute to the most severe events, including tornadoes. In contrast, whereas expected decreases in mean wind shear have been used to argue for a negative influence of global warming on severe thunderstorms, we find that decreases in shear are in fact concentrated in days with low CAPE and therefore do not decrease the total occurrence of severe environments. Further, we find that the shift toward high CAPE is most concentrated in days with low convective inhibition, increasing the occurrence of high-CAPE/low-convective inhibition days. The fact that the projected increases in severe environments are robust across a suite of climate models, emerge in response to relatively moderate global warming, and result from robust physical changes suggests that continued increases in greenhouse forcing are likely to increase severe thunderstorm occurrence, thereby increasing the risk of thunderstorm-related damage.

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California - Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California.

Climate adaptation wedges: A case study of premium wine in the western United States - Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; White, Michael A.; Jones, Gregory V.; Ashfaq, Moetasim (Environmental Research Letters, 2011)
Design and implementation of effective climate change adaptation activities requires quantitative assessment of the impacts that are likely to occur without adaptation, as well as the fraction of impact that can be avoided through each activity. Here we present a quantitative framework inspired by the greenhouse gas stabilization wedges of Pacala and Socolow. In our proposed framework, the damage avoided by each adaptation activity creates an 'adaptation wedge' relative to the loss that would occur without that adaptation activity. We use premium winegrape suitability in the western United States as an illustrative case study, focusing on the near-term period that covers the years 2000–39. We find that the projected warming over this period results in the loss of suitable winegrape area throughout much of California, including most counties in the high-value North Coast and Central Coast regions. However, in quantifying adaptation wedges for individual high-value counties, we find that a large adaptation wedge can be captured by increasing the severe heat tolerance, including elimination of the 50% loss projected by the end of the 2030–9 period in the North Coast region, and reduction of the projected loss in the Central Coast region from 30% to less than 15%. Increased severe heat tolerance can capture an even larger adaptation wedge in the Pacific Northwest, including conversion of a projected loss of more than 30% in the Columbia Valley region of Washington to a projected gain of more than 150%. We also find that warming projected over the near-term decades has the potential to alter the quality of winegrapes produced in the western US, and we discuss potential actions that could create adaptation wedges given these potential changes in quality. While the present effort represents an initial exploration of one aspect of one industry, the climate adaptation wedge framework could be used to quantitatively evaluate the opportunities and limits of climate adaptation within and across a broad range of natural and human systems.

Coastal Flood Exposure Mapper - Digital Coast (NOAA Office for Coastal Management, 2018)

What stakeholder needs tell us about enabling adaptive capacity: The intersection of context and information provision across regions in the United States - Dilling, Lisa; Lackstrom, Kirsten; Haywood, Benjamin; Dow, Kirstin; Lemos, Maria Carmen; Berggren, John; Kalafatis, Scott (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2015)
In recent years increasing attention has been focused on understanding the different resources that can support decision makers at all levels in responding to climate variability and change. This article focuses on the role that access to information and other potential constraints may play in the context of water decision making across three U.S. regions (the Intermountain West, the Great Lakes, and the Carolinas). The authors report on the degree to which climate-related needs or constraints pertinent to water resources are regionally specific. They also find that stakeholder-identified constraints or needs extended beyond the need for data/information to enabling factors such as governance arrangements and how to improve collaboration and communication. As climate information networks expand and emphasis is placed on encouraging adaptation more broadly, these constraints have implications not only for how information dissemination efforts are organized but for how those efforts need to be informed by the larger regional context in a resource-limited and fragmented landscape.
Keywords: Climate change,Climate variability,Policy,Societal impacts

Projected increases in hurricane damage in the United States: The role of climate change and coastal development - Dinan, Terry (Ecological Economics, 2017)
Keywords: Climate change Hurricane damage Sea level rise Damage elasticities Wind damage Storm surge

Clinal variation in MHC diversity with temperature: Evidence for the role of host–pathogen interaction on local adaptation in Atlantic salmon - Dionne, Mélanie; Miller, Kristina M.; Dodson, Julian J.; Caron, François; Bernatchez, Louis (Evolution, 2007)
Keywords: Coevolution genetic diversity local adaptation MHC salmon temperature

Recent changes of the mangroves of the Saloum River Estuary, Senegal - Diop, E.S.; Soumare, A.; Diallo, N.; Guisse, A. (Mangroves and Salt Marshes, 1997)
The water, soil and vegetation characteristics are presented of themangroves of the Saloum River estuary, Senegal, in 1995 and 1996. Themangroves have changed markedly due to decreasing rainfall and increasingevaporation rates, particularly in the 1980s, as well as new oceanographicconditions resulting from the breaching of a protective sand dune. Thehealth of the remaining mangrove communities depends on the localhydrological and hydrodynamic conditions, the microtopography, the humanexploitation of the forest and the clay-sand composition of the soils.

Impacts of climate change on energy consumption and peak demand in buildings: A detailed regional approach - Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John H.; Skorski, Daniel C.; Scott, Michael J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S. (Energy, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change Buildings Energy demand

Changing streamflow on Columbia basin tribal lands—Climate change and salmon - Dittmer, Kyle (Climatic Change, 2013)

Native water protection flows through self-determination: Understanding tribal water quality standards and “Treatment as a State” - Diver, Sibyl (Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 2018)
For Indigenous communities, protecting traditional lands and waters is of the utmost importance. In the U.S. context, scholars have documented an unfortunate neglect of water quality on tribal lands. Treatment as a State (TAS) provisions, adopted in the 1987 amendments to the Clean Water Act, and tribal Water Quality Standards (WQSs) programs are intended to address such problems. Importantly, tribal WQSs may be more stringent than neighboring state standards, and can be used to influence pollution levels coming from upstream, off-reservation users. Tribes can also develop WQSs that support unique tribal values, including ceremonial and cultural uses of native waters. Yet scholarly debates question whether tribal environmental self-determination strategies can fully succeed within dominant regulatory structures. Based on a synthesis of the published literature, this article examines tribal WQSs as a case of tribal environmental self-determination. The author discusses how U.S. tribes pursue WQSs under TAS, program outcomes, and why so few tribes have established WQSs to date. Because most scholarship was found within the legal literature, the author focuses on the legal and political outcomes that arise from tribal WQSs, and analyzes specific opportunities and constraints for program participants. The author also considers how some tribes use WQSs as a “third space” strategy—simultaneously working inside and outside of dominant government structures to advance tribal sovereignty (Bruyneel ). Additional research is needed to understand the diversity of tribal environmental self-determination strategies that occur through federal regulatory frameworks and under tribal law.

The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century - Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Abatzoglou, John; Swanson, Alan K.; Greenberg, Jonathan A.; Mynsberge, Alison R.; Holden, Zachary A.; Schwartz, Michael K. (Global Change Biology, 2013)
Keywords: climate change velocity climate velocity vectors climate change impacts climatic water balance

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions - Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A. (Nature Communications, 2016)

Quadrennial Defense Review - DOD (U.S. Department of Defense, 2010)

Arctic Strategy - DOD (Department of Defense, 2013)

Quadrennial Defense Review - DOD (U.S. Department of Defense, 2014)

National Security Implications of Climate-Related Risks and a Changing Climate: Submitted in Response to a Request Contained in Senate Report 113-211, Accompanying H.R. 4870, the Department of Defense Appropriations Bill, 2015 - DOD (U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), 2015)

Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience - DoD (U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), 2016)

2018 Climate-Related Risk to DoD Infrastructure Initial Vulnerability Assessment Survey (SLVAS) Report - DOD (U.S. Department of Defense, Office of Economic Adjustment, 2018)

Ch. 8: Mental health and well-being - Dodgen, Daniel; Donato, Darrin; Kelly, Nancy; La Greca, Annette; Morganstein, Joshua; Reser, Joseph; Ruzek, Josef; Schweitzer, Shulamit; Shimamoto, Mark M.; Thigpen Tart, Kimberly; Ursano, Robert (The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, 2016)

Institutional capacity, climate change adaptation and the urban poor - Dodman, D.; Satterthwaite, D. (IDS Bulletin, 2008)

U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2013)

Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower: Report to Congress - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2013)

Effect of Sea Level Rise on Energy Infrastructure in Four Major Metropolitan Areas - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy, 2014)

INFOGRAPHIC: Understanding the Grid - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy, 2014)

Climate Change and the U.S. Energy Sector: Regional Vulnerabilities and Resilience Solutions - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2015)

Transforming U.S. Energy Infrastructures in a Time of Rapid Change: The First Installment of the Quadrennial Energy Review - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2015)

An Assessment of Energy Technologies and Research Opportunities: Quadrennial Technology Review - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2015)

Tribal Energy System Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Office of Indian Energy, 2015)

Chapter 4: Northern Great Plains - DOE (Climate Change and the U.S. Energy Sector: Regional Vulnerabilities and Resilience Solutions, 2015)

Quadrennial Energy Review (QER) - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2015)

Revolution...Now: The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies—2016 Update - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2016)

Climate Change and the Electricity Sector: Guide for Climate Change Resilience Planning - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2016)

Solid-State Lighting: R&D Plan - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2016)

A Review of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Current Practices and Lessons Learned from DOE's Partnership for Energy Sector Climate Resilience - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Energy Policy and System Analysis, 2016)

Transforming the Nation’s Electricity System: The Second Installment of the QER - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2017)

Tribal energy projects database - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2017)

Staff Report to the Secretary on Electricity Markets and Reliability - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2017)

U.S. Energy and Employment Report - DOE (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2017)

Energy CO2 Emissions Impacts of Clean Energy Technology Innovation and Policy - DOE-EPSA (U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (DOE-EPSA), 2017)

Climate change in the urban environment: Advancing, measuring and achieving resiliency - Doherty, Meghan; Klima, Kelly; Hellmann, Jessica J. (Environmental Science & Policy, 2016)
Keywords: Urban adaptation Climate change

Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution: A multi-model study - Doherty, R. M.; Wild, O.; Shindell, D. T.; Zeng, G.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Collins, W. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Dentener, F. J.; Schultz, M. G.; Hess, P.; Derwent, R. G.; et al. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013)
The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes—(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission—largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 response due to climate change (R2 = 0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual-mean surface O3 response through changes in climate-sensitive O3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO-like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 change to 20% regional O3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present-day climate. The surface O3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present-day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual-mean surface O3.

Adaptive Management Implementation Policy - DOI (U.S. Department of Interior, 2008)

Great Lakes total phosphorus revisited: 1. Loading analysis and update (1994–2008) - Dolan, David M.; Chapra, Steven C. (Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2012)
Keywords: Phosphorus Loadings Eutrophication Tributary Municipal Industrial

Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: A global-scale assessment - Döll, Petra (Environmental Research Letters, 2009)
Climate change will lead to significant changes of groundwater recharge and thus renewable groundwater resources. Using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP, the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and the number of affected people was computed for four climate scenarios by two climate models. Vulnerability of humans to decreased groundwater resources depends on both the degree of decrease and the sensitivity of the human system to the decrease. For each grid cell, a sensitivity index composed of a water scarcity indicator, an indicator for dependence of water supply on groundwater and the Human Development Index was quantified. Combining per cent groundwater recharge decrease with the sensitivity index, global maps of vulnerability to the impact of decreased groundwater recharge in the 2050s were derived. In the A2 (B2) emissions scenario, 18.4–19.3% (16.1–18.1%) of the global population of 10.7 (9.1) billion would be affected by groundwater recharge decreases of at least 10%, and 4.8–5.7% (3.8–3.8%) of the global population would be in the two highest vulnerability classes. The highest vulnerabilities are found at the North African rim of the Mediterranean Sea, in southwestern Africa, in northeastern Brazil and in the central Andes, which are areas of moderate to high sensitivity. For most of the areas with high population density and high sensitivity, model results indicate that groundwater recharge is unlikely to decrease by more than 10% until the 2050s. However, a fifth to a third of the population may be affected by a groundwater recharge increase of more than 10%, with negative impacts in the case of shallow water tables. The spatial distribution of vulnerability, even at the continental scale, differs more strongly between the two climate models than between the two emissions scenarios.

Integrating risks of climate change into water management - Döll, P.; Jiménez-Cisneros, B.; Oki, T.; Arnell, N. W.; Benito, G.; Cogley, J. G.; Jiang, T.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.; Mwakalila, S.; Nishijima, A. (Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2015)

Effects of climate change on factory life cycle - Dombrowski, U.; Ernst, S. (Procedia CIRP, 2014)
Keywords: Factory Life Cycle Climate Change Global Warming Factory Planning Advanced Industrial Management

Forests - Domke, G.; Williams, C.A.; Birdsey, R.; Coulston, J.; Finzi, A.; Gough, C.; Haight, B.; Hicke, J.; Janowiak, M.; de Jong, B.; Kurz, W.; Lucash, M.; et al. (Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report, 2018)

Toward inventory-based estimates of soil organic carbon in forests of the United States - Domke, G. M.; Perry, C. H.; Walters, B. F.; Nave, L. E.; Woodall, C. W.; Swanston, C. W. (Ecological Applications, 2017)
Keywords: climate Forest Inventory and Analysis greenhouse gas inventory International Soil Carbon Network modeling national forest inventory

Extraordinary heat during the 1930s US Dust Bowl and associated large-scale conditions - Donat, Markus G.; King, Andrew D.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Durre, Imke; Karoly, David J. (Climate Dynamics, 2016)
Unusually hot summer conditions occurred during the 1930s over the central United States and undoubtedly contributed to the severity of the Dust Bowl drought. We investigate local and large-scale conditions in association with the extraordinary heat and drought events, making use of novel datasets of observed climate extremes and climate reanalysis covering the past century. We show that the unprecedented summer heat during the Dust Bowl years was likely exacerbated by land-surface feedbacks associated with springtime precipitation deficits. The reanalysis results indicate that these deficits were associated with the coincidence of anomalously warm North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific surface waters and a shift in atmospheric pressure patterns leading to reduced flow of moist air into the central US. Thus, the combination of springtime ocean temperatures and atmospheric flow anomalies, leading to reduced precipitation, also holds potential for enhanced predictability of summer heat events. The results suggest that hot drought, more severe than experienced during the most recent 2011 and 2012 heat waves, is to be expected when ocean temperature anomalies like those observed in the 1930s occur in a world that has seen significant mean warming.

Whole-island carbon stocks in the tropical Pacific: Implications for mangrove conservation and upland restoration - Donato, D. C.; Kauffman, J. B.; Mackenzie, R. A.; Ainsworth, A.; Pfleeger, A. Z. (Journal of Environmental Management, 2012)
Management of forest carbon (C) stocks is an increasingly prominent land-use issue. Knowledge of carbon storage in tropical forests is improving, but regional variations are still poorly understood, and this constrains forest management and conservation efforts associated with carbon valuation mechanisms (e.g., carbon markets). This deficiency is especially pronounced in tropical islands and low-lying coastal areas where climate change impacts are expected to be among the most severe. This study presents the first field estimate of island-wide carbon storage in ecosystems of Oceania, with special attention to the regional role of coastal mangroves, which occur on islands and coastal zones throughout the tropics. On two island groups of Micronesia (Yap and Palau), we sampled all above- and belowground C pools, including soil and vegetation, in 24 sites distributed evenly among the three major vegetation structural types: mangroves, upland forests, and open savannas (generally on degraded lands formerly forested). Total C stocks were estimated to be 3.9 and 15.2 Tg C on Yap and Palau, respectively. Mangroves contained by far the largest per-hectare C pools (830–1218 Mg C ha−1), with deep organic-rich soils alone storing more C (631–754 Mg C ha−1) than all pools combined in upland systems. Despite covering just 12–13% of land area, mangroves accounted for 24–34% of total island C stocks. Savannas (156–203 Mg C ha−1) contained significantly lower C stocks than upland forests (375–437 Mg C ha−1), suggesting that reforesting savannas where appropriate has high potential for carbon-based funding to aid restoration objectives. For mangroves, these results demonstrate the key role of these systems within the broader context of C storage in island and coastal landscapes. Sustainable management of mangrove forests and their large C stocks is of high importance at the regional scale, and climate change mitigation programs such as REDD+ could play a large role in avoiding deforestation of mangroves where this is a management objective.
Keywords: Forest Deforestation Land use REDD+ Soil carbon

Mangroves among the most carbon-rich forests in the tropics - Donato, Daniel C.; Kauffman, J. Boone; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Kurnianto, Sofyan; Stidham, Melanie; Kanninen, Markku (Nature Geoscience, 2011)

Developing responsive indicators of indigenous community health - Donatuto, Jamie; Campbell, Larry; Gregory, Robin (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2016)

Indigenous community health and climate change: Integrating biophysical and social science indicators - Donatuto, Jamie; Grossman, Eric E.; Konovsky, John; Grossman, Sarah; Campbell, Larry W. (Coastal Management, 2014)
Ch9

Poisoning the body to nourish the soul: Prioritising health risks and impacts in a Native American community - Donatuto, Jamie L.; Satterfield, Terre A.; Gregory, Robin (Health, Risk & Society, 2011)
Ch5,9

Ch. 24: Oceans and marine resources - Doney, Scott; Rosenberg, Andrew A.; Alexander, Michael; Chavez, Francisco; Harvell, C. Drew; Hofmann, Gretchen; Orbach, Michael; Ruckelshaus, Mary (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Ocean acidification: The other CO2 problem - Doney, S.C.; Fabry, V.J.; Feely, R.A.; Kleypas, J.A. (Annual Review of Marine Science, 2009)

Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems - Doney, S.C.; Ruckelshaus, M.; Duffy, J.E.; Barry, J.P.; Chan, F.; English, C.A.; Galindo, H.M.; Grebmeier, J.M.; Hollowed, A.B.; Knowlton, N.; Polovina, J.; Rabalais, N.N.; et al. (Annual Review of Marine Science, 2012)

Rapid shoreward encroachment of salt marsh cordgrass in response to accelerated sea-level rise - Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Bertness, Mark D. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2001)
The distribution of New England salt marsh communities is intrinsically linked to the magnitude, frequency, and duration of tidal inundation. Cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) exclusively inhabits the frequently flooded lower elevations, whereas a mosaic of marsh hay (Spartina patens), spike grass (Distichlis spicata), and black rush (Juncus gerardi) typically dominate higher elevations. Monitoring plant zonal boundaries in two New England salt marshes revealed that low-marsh cordgrass rapidly moved landward at the expense of higher-marsh species between 1995 and 1998. Plant macrofossils from sediment cores across modern plant community boundaries provided a 2,500-year record of marsh community composition and documented the migration of cordgrass into the high marsh. Isotopic dating revealed that the initiation of cordgrass migration occurred in the late 19th century and continued through the 20th century. The timing of the initiation of cordgrass migration is coincident with an acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise recorded by the New York tide gauge. These results suggest that increased flooding associated with accelerating rates of sea-level rise has stressed high-marsh communities and promoted landward migration of cordgrass. If current rates of sea-level rise continue or increase slightly over the next century, New England salt marshes will be dominated by cordgrass. If climate warming causes sea-level rise rates to increase significantly over the next century, these cordgrass-dominated marshes will likely drown, resulting in extensive losses of coastal wetlands.

Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event - Donner, Simon D.; Knutson, Thomas R.; Oppenheimer, Michael (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007)
Episodes of mass coral bleaching around the world in recent decades have been attributed to periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures. In 2005, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic that may have contributed to the strong hurricane season caused widespread coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean. Here, we use two global climate models to evaluate the contribution of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing to the thermal stress that caused the 2005 coral bleaching event. Historical temperature data and simulations for the 1870–2000 period show that the observed warming in the region is unlikely to be due to unforced climate variability alone. Simulation of background climate variability suggests that anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of occurrence of significant thermal stress events for corals in this region by an order of magnitude. Under scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, mass coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean may become a biannual event in 20–30 years. However, if corals and their symbionts can adapt by 1–1.5°C, such mass bleaching events may not begin to recur at potentially harmful intervals until the latter half of the century. The delay could enable more time to alter the path of greenhouse gas emissions, although long-term “committed warming” even after stabilization of atmospheric CO2 levels may still represent an additional long-term threat to corals.

Including public-health benefits of trees in urban-forestry decision making - Donovan, Geoffrey H. (Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 2017)
Keywords: Crime Energy conservation Green infrastructure Storm water

Surging wildfire activity in a grassland biome - Donovan, Victoria M.; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Twidwell, Dirac (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: Great Plains biome fire season Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) wildfire pyrogeography fire regime 1630 Impacts of global change 1632 Land cover change 1817 Extreme events 4335 Disaster management 4316 Physical modeling

Transformational Resilience: How Building Human Resilience to Climate Disruption Can Safeguard Society and Increase Wellbeing - Doppelt, Bob (Greenleaf Publishing (Routledge/Taylor & Francis), 2016)

National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards: Mid-Atlantic Coast - Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sopkin, Kristin L.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2012)

Severe mammal declines coincide with proliferation of invasive Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park - Dorcas, Michael E.; Willson, John D.; Reed, Robert N.; Snow, Ray W.; Rochford, Michael R.; Miller, Melissa A.; Meshaka, Walter E.; Andreadis, Paul T.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romagosa, Christina M.; Hart, Kristen M. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2012)
Invasive species represent a significant threat to global biodiversity and a substantial economic burden. Burmese pythons, giant constricting snakes native to Asia, now are found throughout much of southern Florida, including all of Everglades National Park (ENP). Pythons have increased dramatically in both abundance and geographic range since 2000 and consume a wide variety of mammals and birds. Here we report severe apparent declines in mammal populations that coincide temporally and spatially with the proliferation of pythons in ENP. Before 2000, mammals were encountered frequently during nocturnal road surveys within ENP. In contrast, road surveys totaling 56,971 km from 2003–2011 documented a 99.3% decrease in the frequency of raccoon observations, decreases of 98.9% and 87.5% for opossum and bobcat observations, respectively, and failed to detect rabbits. Road surveys also revealed that these species are more common in areas where pythons have been discovered only recently and are most abundant outside the python's current introduced range. These findings suggest that predation by pythons has resulted in dramatic declines in mammals within ENP and that introduced apex predators, such as giant constrictors, can exert significant top-down pressure on prey populations. Severe declines in easily observed and/or common mammals, such as raccoons and bobcats, bode poorly for species of conservation concern, which often are more difficult to sample and occur at lower densities.

Interannual patterns during spring and late summer of larvaceans and pteropods in the coastal Gulf of Alaska, and their relationship to pink salmon survival - Doubleday, Ayla J.; Hopcroft, Russell R. (Journal of Plankton Research, 2015)
Larvacean (=appendicularian) and pteropod (Limacina helicina) composition and abundance were studied with physical variables each May and late summer across 11 years (2001–2011), along a transect that crosses the continental shelf of the sub-Arctic Gulf of Alaska (GoA) and five stations within Prince William Sound (PWS). Collection with 53-µm plankton nets allowed the identification of larvaceans to species: five occurred in the study area. Temperature was the driving variable in determining larvacean community composition, yielding pronounced differences between spring and late summer, while individual species were also affected differentially by salinity and chlorophyll-a concentration. During the spring Oikopleura labradoriensis and Fritillaria borealis were most abundant, being present at all stations. Late summer had highest abundances of Oikopleura dioica at nearshore stations, while F. borealis dominated numerically at outer stations. The 53-µm plankton nets collected higher abundances of Oikopleura spp., Fritillaria spp. and L. helicina than coarser 150- and 505-µm plankton nets. Limacina helicina abundance had a significant interaction effect among years, seasons and station location. Limacina helicina abundance in nearby PWS explained 30% of the variability in pink salmon survival; however, no significant correlations existed with larvacean or L. helicina abundances from the GoA stations.
10.1093/plankt/fbu092

Mangrove range expansion rapidly increases coastal wetland carbon storage - Doughty, Cheryl L.; Langley, J. Adam; Walker, Wayne S.; Feller, Ilka C.; Schaub, Ronald; Chapman, Samantha K. (Estuaries and Coasts, 2016)
The climate change-induced expansion of mangroves into salt marshes could significantly alter the carbon (C) storage capacity of coastal wetlands, which have the highest average C storage per land area among unmanaged terrestrial ecosystems. Mangrove range expansion is occurring globally, but little is known about how these rapid climate-driven shifts may alter ecosystem C storage. Here, we quantify current C stocks in ecotonal wetlands across gradients of marsh- to mangrove-dominance, and use unique chronological maps of vegetation cover to estimate C stock changes from 2003 to 2010 in a 567-km2 wildlife refuge in the mangrove-salt marsh ecotone. We report that over the 7-yr. period, total wetland C stocks increased 22 % due to mangrove encroachment into salt marshes. Newly established mangrove stands stored twice as much C on a per area basis as salt marsh primarily due to differences in aboveground biomass, and mangrove cover increased by 69 % during this short time interval. Wetland C storage within the wildlife refuge increased at a rate of 2.7 Mg C ha−1 yr.−1, more than doubling the naturally high coastal wetland C sequestration rates. Mangrove expansion could account for a globally significant increase of terrestrial C storage, which may exert a considerable negative feedback on warming.

Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Projected Changes in Timing and Extent of Sea Ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1176 - Douglas, David C. (U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 2010)

Progress and challenges in incorporating climate change information into transportation research and design - Douglas, Ellen; Jacobs, Jennifer; Hayhoe, Katharine; Silka, Linda; Daniel, Jo; Collins, Mathias; Alipour, Alice; Anderson, Bruce; Hebson, Charles; Mecray, Ellen; Mallick, Rajib; Zou, Qingping; et al. (Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2017)
The vulnerability of our nation’s transportation infrastructure to climate change and extreme weather is now well documented and the transportation community has identified numerous strategies to potentially mitigate these vulnerabilities. The challenges to the infrastructure sector presented by climate change can only be met through collaboration between the climate science community, who evaluate what the future will likely look like, and the engineering community, who implement our societal response. To facilitate this process, the authors asked: what progress has been made and what needs to be done now in order to allow for the graceful convergence of these two disciplines? In late 2012, the Infrastructure and Climate Network (ICNet), a National Science Foundation–supported research collaboration network, was established to answer that question. This article presents examples of how the ICNet experience has shown the way toward a new generation of innovation and cross-disciplinary research, challenges that can be address by such collaboration, and specific guidance for partnerships and methods to effectively address complex questions requiring a cogeneration of knowledge.

Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Army Alaska: With Decision Support Tools Developed Through Field Work and Modeling - Douglas, Thomas A.; Jorgenson, M. T.; Brown, D. N.; Hiemstra, C. A.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Downer, C.; Pradhan, N.; Marchenko, S.; Campbell, S.; Senseman, G.; Olson, K. (U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, 2016)

Highways in the Coastal Environment: Assessing Extreme Events: Volume 2 (Hydraulic Engineering Circular No. 25–Volume 2) - Douglass, Scott L.; Webb, Bret M.; Kilgore, Roger (Federal Highway Administration, Office of Bridge Technology, 2014)

Exploring effects of climate change on Northern Plains American Indian health - Doyle, John T.; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Eggers, Margaret J. (Climatic Change, 2013)
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Sea-Level Rise Modeling Handbook: Resource Guide for Coastal Land Managers, Engineers, and Scientists - Doyle, Thomas W.; Chivoiu, Bogdan; Enwright, Nicholas M. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2015)

Modeling mangrove forest migration along the southwest coast of Florida under climate change - Doyle, Thomas W.; Girod, Garrett F.; Books, Mark A. (Integrated Assessment of the Climate Change Impacts on the Gulf Coast Region, 2003)

Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise - Doyle, T.W.; Krauss, K.W.; Conner, W.H.; From, A.S. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2010)

Wind damage effects of Hurricane Andrew on mangrove communities along the southwest coast of Florida, USA - Doyle, Thomas W.; Smith, Thomas J., III; Robblee, Michael B. (Journal of Coastal Research, 1995)

Carbon sequestration in tidal salt marshes of the northeast United States - Drake, Katherine; Halifax, Holly; Adamowicz, Susan C.; Craft, Christopher (Environmental Management, 2015)
Tidal salt marshes provide important ecological services, habitat, disturbance regulation, water quality improvement, and biodiversity, as well as accumulation and sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in vegetation and soil organic matter. Different management practices may alter their capacity to provide these ecosystem services. We examined soil properties (bulk density, percent organic C, percent N), C and N pools, C sequestration and N accumulation at four marshes managed with open marsh water management (OMWM) and four marshes that were not at U.S. Fish and Wildlife National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) on the East Coast of the United States. Soil properties (bulk density, percent organic C, percent N) exhibited no consistent differences among managed and non-OMWM marshes. Soil organic carbon pools (0–60-cm depth) also did not differ. Managed marshes contained 15.9 kg C/m2 compared to 16.2 kg C/m2 in non-OMWM marshes. Proportionately, more C (per unit volume) was stored in surface than in subsurface soils. The rate of C sequestration, based on 137Cs and 210Pb dating of soil cores, ranged from 41 to 152 g/m2/year. Because of the low emissions of CH4 from salt marshes relative to freshwater wetlands and the ability to sequester C in soil, protection and restoration of salt marshes can be a vital tool for delivering key ecosystem services, while at the same time, reducing the C footprint associated with managing these wetlands.

Association between rainfall and pediatric emergency department visits for acute gastrointestinal illness - Drayna, Patrick; McLellan, Sandra L.; Simpson, Pippa; Li, Shun-Hwa; Gorelick, Marc H. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2010)

Observations and impacts of transported Canadian wildfire smoke on ozone and aerosol air quality in the Maryland region on June 9–12, 2015 - Dreessen, Joel; Sullivan, John; Delgado, Ruben (Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 2016)

Assessing the health effects of climate change in Alaska with community-based surveillance - Driscoll, David L.; Mitchell, Erica; Barker, Rebecca; Johnston, Janet M.; Renes, Sue (Climatic Change, 2016)

Informe sobre la Sequía de 2014-2016 en Puerto Rico - DRNA (Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambientales (DRNA), División Monitoreo del Plan de Aguas, 2016)

Plan Integral de Recursos de Agua de Puerto Rico, 2016: Políticas, Proyectos, Objetivos - DRNA (Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambientales (DRNA), División Monitoreo del Plan de Aguas, 2016)

Trails to the whale: Reflections of change and choice on an Iñupiat icescape at Barrow, Alaska - Druckenmiller, Matthew L.; Eicken, Hajo; George, J. C. “Craig”; Brower, Lewis (Polar Geography, 2013)

Regional dynamics of grassland change in the western Great Plains - Drummond, Mark A. (Great Plains Research, 2007)

Land change variability and human–environment dynamics in the United States Great Plains - Drummond, Mark A.; Auch, Roger F.; Karstensen, Krista A.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Taylor, Janis L.; Loveland, Thomas R. (Land Use Policy, 2012)

Land-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover loss in the eastern United States - Drummond, Mark A.; Loveland, Thomas R. (BioScience, 2010)

Public perceptions of how long air pollution and carbon dioxide remain in the atmosphere - Dryden, Rachel; Morgan, M. Granger; Bostrom, Ann; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi (Risk Analysis, 2017)
Keywords: Air pollution atmospheric residence time carbon dioxide

Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE) [online tool] - DSIRE (NC State University, NC Clean Energy Technology Center, 2017)

Worsened physical condition due to climate change contributes to the increasing hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay - Du, Jiabi; Shen, Jian; Park, Kyeong; Wang, Ya Ping; Yu, Xin (Science of the Total Environment, 2018)
Keywords: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Physical control Temperature Vertical exchange Climate

Commodity price shocks and civil conflict: Evidence from Colombia - Dube, Oeindrila; Vargas, Juan F. (The Review of Economic Studies, 2013)
How do income shocks affect armed conflict? Theory suggests two opposite effects. If labour is used to appropriate resources violently, higher wages may lower conflict by reducing labour supplied to appropriation. This is the opportunity cost effect. Alternatively, a rise in contestable income may increase violence by raising gains from appropriation. This is the rapacity effect. Our article exploits exogenous price shocks in international commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in Colombia to assess how different income shocks affect conflict. We examine changes in the price of agricultural goods (which are labour intensive) as well as natural resources (which are not). We focus on Colombia's two largest exports, coffee and oil. We find that a sharp fall in coffee prices during the 1990s lowered wages and increased violence differentially in municipalities cultivating more coffee. This is consistent with the coffee shock inducing an opportunity cost effect. In contrast, a rise in oil prices increased both municipal revenue and violence differentially in the oil region. This is consistent with the oil shock inducing a rapacity effect. We also show that this pattern holds in six other agricultural and natural resource sectors, providing evidence that price shocks affect conflict in different directions depending on the type of the commodity.
10.1093/restud/rdt009

Healthy food access for urban food desert residents: Examination of the food environment, food purchasing practices, diet and BMI - Dubowitz, Tamara; Zenk, Shannon N.; Ghosh-Dastidar, Bonnie; Cohen, Deborah A.; Beckman, Robin; Hunter, Gerald; Steiner, Elizabeth D.; Collins, Rebecca L. (Public Health Nutrition, 2015)
Objective To provide a richer understanding of food access and purchasing practices among US urban food desert residents and their association with diet and BMI. Design Data on food purchasing practices, dietary intake, height and weight from the primary food shopper in randomly selected households (n 1372) were collected. Audits of all neighbourhood food stores (n 24) and the most-frequented stores outside the neighbourhood (n 16) were conducted. Aspects of food access and purchasing practices and relationships among them were examined and tests of their associations with dietary quality and BMI were conducted. Setting Two low-income, predominantly African-American neighbourhoods with limited access to healthy food in Pittsburgh, PA, USA. Subjects Household food shoppers. Results Only one neighbourhood outlet sold fresh produce; nearly all respondents did major food shopping outside the neighbourhood. Although the nearest full-service supermarket was an average of 2·6 km from their home, respondents shopped an average of 6·0 km from home. The average trip was by car, took approximately 2 h for the round trip, and occurred two to four times per month. Respondents spent approximately $US 37 per person per week on food. Those who made longer trips had access to cars, shopped less often and spent less money per person. Those who travelled further when they shopped had higher BMI, but most residents already shopped where healthy foods were available, and physical distance from full-service supermarkets was unrelated to weight or dietary quality. Conclusions Improved access to healthy foods is the target of current policies meant to improve health. However, distance to the closest supermarket might not be as important as previously thought, and thus policy and interventions that focus merely on improving access may not be effective.
Keywords: Food desert Food purchasing practices Dietary quality BMI

Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors - Duchesne, Louis; Houle, Daniel (PeerJ, 2014)
Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada) and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter), the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions.
Keywords: Maple syrup Sugar maple Climate Cold hardiness Acer saccharum Freeze–thaw events Yield statistics

Missouri State Conservation Report - Ducks Unlimited (Ducks Unlimited Great Lakes/Atlantic Region, 2016)

Trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing in the conterminous United States - Dudley, R. W.; Hodgkins, G. A.; McHale, M. R.; Kolian, M. J.; Renard, B. (Journal of Hydrology, 2017)
Keywords: Snowmelt Streamflow Trends Climate Hydrology

Southern pine beetle regional outbreaks modeled on landscape, climate and infestation history - Duehl, Adrian J.; Koch, Frank H.; Hain, Fred P. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2011)
Keywords: Classification and Regression Tree Insect infestation Logistic regression

Biodiversity effects in the wild are common and as strong as key drivers of productivity - Duffy, J. Emmett; Godwin, Casey M.; Cardinale, Bradley J. (Nature, 2017)

Large-scale dieback of mangroves in Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria: A severe ecosystem response, coincidental with an unusually extreme weather event - Duke, Norman C.; Kovacs, John M.; Griffiths, Anthony D.; Preece, Luke; Hill, Duncan J. E.; van Oosterzee, Penny; Mackenzie, Jock; Morning, Hailey S.; Burrows, Damien (Marine & Freshwater Research, 2017)
This study records and documents the most severe and notable instance ever reported of sudden and widespread dieback of mangrove vegetation. Between late 2015 and early 2016, extensive areas of mangrove tidal wetland vegetation died back along 1000 km of the shoreline of Australia’s remote Gulf of Carpentaria. The cause is not fully explained, but the timing was coincident with an extreme weather event; notably one of high temperatures and low precipitation lacking storm winds. The dieback was severe and widespread, affecting more than 7400 ha or 6% of mangrove vegetation in the affected area from Roper River estuary in the Northern Territory, east to Karumba in Queensland. At the time, there was an unusually lengthy period of severe drought conditions, unprecedented high temperatures and a temporary drop in sea level. Although consequential moisture stress appears to have contributed to the cause, this occurrence was further coincidental with heat-stressed coral bleaching. This article describes the effect and diagnostic features of this severe dieback event in the Gulf, and considers potential causal factors.
Keywords: mangrove forests, plant–climate interactions, tidal wetlands.

Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: A biotic indicator of warming seas - Dulvy, N.K.; Rogers, S.I.; Jennings, S.; Stelzenmüller, V.; Dye, S.R.; Skjoldal, H.R. (Journal of Applied Ecology, 2008)

Projected future distribution of Tsuga canadensis across alternative climate scenarios in Maine, U.S - Dunckel, Kathleen; Weiskittel, Aaron; Fiske, Greg (Forests, 2017)

Public–Private Partnerships are no silver bullet: An expanded governance model for Critical Infrastructure Protection - Dunn-Cavelty, Myriam; Suter, Manuel (International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, 2009)
Keywords: Critical infrastructure protection Public–Private Partnerships Governance theory Meta-governance

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming - Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

Shifts in the flowering phenology of the Northern Great Plains: Patterns over 100 years - Dunnell, K. L.; Travers, S. E. (American Journal of Botany, 2011)
Keywords: climate change; flowering; Minnesota; North Dakota; phenology; prairie; climate-change; spring phenology; plant phenology; eastern china; global; change; abundance; frost; responses; impacts; time

Towards characterizing and planning for drought in vermont-part I: A climatological perspective - Dupigny-Giroux, Lesley-Ann (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2001)
Keywords: drought mitigation drought indices climatology agriculture water resources Vermont

Northeast - Dupigny-Giroux, L.A.; Mecray, E.L.; Lemcke-Stampone, M.D.; Hodgkins, G.A.; Lentz, E.E.; Mills, K.E.; Lane, E.D.; Miller, R.; Hollinger, D.Y.; Solecki, W.D.; Wellenius, G.A.; Sheffield, P.E.; et al. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

High water closes river near St. Louis - DuPont, Dale K. (WorkBoat.com, 2013)

First evidence of altered sensory quality in a shellfish exposed to decreased pH relevant to ocean acidification - Dupont, Sam; Hall, Emilie; Calosi, Piero; Lundve, Bengt (Journal of Shellfish Research, 2014)

New records of ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) from dogs, cats, humans, and some wild vertebrates in Alaska: Invasion potential - Durden, Lance A.; Beckmen, Kimberlee B.; Gerlach, Robert F. (Journal of Medical Entomology, 2016)

Climate change influences on environment as a determinant of Indigenous health: Relationships to place, sea ice, and health in an Inuit community - Durkalec, Agata; Furgal, Chris; Skinner, Mark W.; Sheldon, Tom (Social Science & Medicine, 2015)
Keywords: Canada Inuit health Indigenous health Environment Place Sea ice Climate change Environmental dispossession

Impact of ocean acidification on the structure of future phytoplankton communities - Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Morris, J. Jeffrey; Follows, Michael J.; Scott, Jeffery; Levitan, Orly; Dyhrman, Sonya T.; Berman-Frank, Ilana (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods - Dutton, A.; Carlson, A. E.; Long, A. J.; Milne, G. A.; Clark, P. U.; DeConto, R.; Horton, B. P.; Rahmstorf, S.; Raymo, M. E. (Science, 2015)
We know that the sea level will rise as climate warms. Nevertheless, accurate projections of how much sea-level rise will occur are difficult to make based solely on modern observations. Determining how ice sheets and sea level have varied in past warm periods can help us better understand how sensitive ice sheets are to higher temperatures. Dutton et al. review recent interdisciplinary progress in understanding this issue, based on data from four different warm intervals over the past 3 million years. Their synthesis provides a clear picture of the progress we have made and the hurdles that still exist.Science, this issue 10.1126/science.aaa4019BACKGROUNDAlthough thermal expansion of seawater and melting of mountain glaciers have dominated global mean sea level (GMSL) rise over the last century, mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions to GMSL rise under future warming. To better constrain polar ice-sheet response to warmer temperatures, we draw on evidence from interglacial periods in the geologic record that experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher GMSLs than present. Coastal records of sea level from these previous warm periods demonstrate geographic variability because of the influence of several geophysical processes that operate across a range of magnitudes and time scales. Inferring GMSL and ice-volume changes from these reconstructions is nontrivial and generally requires the use of geophysical models.ADVANCESInterdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise. Advances in our understanding of polar ice-sheet response to warmer climates have been made through an increase in the number and geographic distribution of sea-level reconstructions, better ice-sheet constraints, and the recognition that several geophysical processes cause spatially complex patterns in sea level. In particular, accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to decipher spatial variability in coastal sea-level records and has reconciled a number of site-specific sea-level reconstructions for warm periods that have occurred within the past several hundred thousand years. This enables us to infer that during recent interglacial periods, small increases in global mean temperature and just a few degrees of polar warming relative to the preindustrial period resulted in ≥6 m of GMSL rise. Mantle-driven dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, affecting reconstructions for time periods such as the Pliocene (~3 million years ago), when atmospheric CO2 was ~400 parts per million (ppm), similar to that of the present. Both modeling and field evidence suggest that polar ice sheets were smaller during this time period, but because dynamic topography can cause tens of meters of vertical displacement at Earth’s surface on million-year time scales and uncertainty in model predictions of this signal are large, it is currently not possible to make a precise estimate of peak GMSL during the Pliocene.OUTLOOKOur present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, but a number of challenges remain to further constrain ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change using paleo–sea level records. Improving our understanding of rates of GMSL rise due to polar ice-mass loss is perhaps the most societally relevant information the paleorecord can provide, yet robust estimates of rates of GMSL rise associated with polar ice-sheet retreat and/or collapse remain a weakness in existing sea-level reconstructions. Improving existing magnitudes, rates, and sources of GMSL rise will require a better (global) distribution of sea-level reconstructions with high temporal resolution and precise elevations and should include sites close to present and former ice sheets. Translating such sea-level data into a robust GMSL signal demands integration with geophysical models, which in turn can be tested through improved spatial and temporal sampling of co stal records.Further development is needed to refine estimates of past sea level from geochemical proxies. In particular, paired oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data are currently unable to provide confident, quantitative estimates of peak sea level during these past warm periods. In some GMSL reconstructions, polar ice-sheet retreat is inferred from the total GMSL budget, but identifying the specific ice-sheet sources is currently hindered by limited field evidence at high latitudes. Given the paucity of such data, emerging geochemical and geophysical techniques show promise for identifying the sectors of the ice sheets that were most vulnerable to collapse in the past and perhaps will be again in the future.Peak global mean temperature, atmospheric CO2, maximum global mean sea level (GMSL), and source(s) of meltwater.Light blue shading indicates uncertainty of GMSL maximum. Red pie charts over Greenland and Antarctica denote fraction (not location) of ice retreat.Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo–sea level records.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/349/6244/aaa4019.full.pdf

Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity - Duveneck, Matthew J.; Scheller, Robert M.; White, Mark A.; Handler, Stephen D.; Ravenscroft, Catherine (Ecosphere, 2014)
Keywords: biodiversity climate change forest management forest simulation model LANDIS-II Michigan, USA Minnesota, USA

Frequently Asked Questions - Dzaugis, M.; Avery, C.W.; Crimmins, A.; Dahlman, L.; Easterling, D.R.; Gaal, R.; Greenhalgh, E.; Herring, D.; Kunkel, K.E.; Lindsey, R.; Maycock, T.K.; Molar, R.; et al. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Global coral bleaching 2014-2017: Status and an appeal for observations - Eakin, C. Mark; Liu, Gang; Gomez, Andrea M.; De La Cour, Jacqueline L.; Heron, Scott F.; Skirving, William J.; Geiger, Erick F.; Tirak, Kyle V.; Strong, Alan E. (Reef Encounter, 2016)

Caribbean corals in crisis: Record thermal stress, bleaching, and mortality in 2005 - Eakin, C.M.; Morgan, J.A.; Heron, S.F.; Smith, T.B.; Liu, G.; Alvarez-Filip, L.; Baca, B.; Bartels, E.; Bastidas, C.; Bouchon, C.; Brandt, M.; Bruckner, A.W.; et al. (PLOS ONE, 2010)

Transboundary Water Management and the Climate Change Debate - Earle, Anton; Cascao, Ana Elisa; Hansson, Stina; Jägerskog, Anders; Swain, Ashok; Öjendal, Joakim (Routledge, 2015)

Traditional Aboringinal Diets and Health - Earle, Lynda (National Collaborating Centre for Aboriginal Health, 2011)

Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities - Early, Regan; Bradley, Bethany A.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Olden, Julian D.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Gonzalez, Patrick; Grosholz, Edwin D.; Ibañez, Ines; Miller, Luke P.; Sorte, Cascade J. B.; Tatem, Andrew J. (Nature Communications, 2016)

Analysis of climate paths reveals potential limitations on species range shifts - Early, Regan; Sax, Dov F. (Ecology Letters, 2011)
Forecasts of species endangerment under climate change usually ignore the processes by which species ranges shift. By analysing the ‘climate paths’ that range shifts might follow, and two key range‐shift processes – dispersal and population persistence – we show that short‐term climatic and population characteristics have dramatic effects on range‐shift forecasts. By employing this approach with 15 amphibian species in the western USA, we make unexpected predictions. First, inter‐decadal variability in climate change can prevent range shifts by causing gaps in climate paths, even in the absence of geographic barriers. Second, the hitherto unappreciated trait of persistence during unfavourable climatic conditions is critical to species range shifts. Third, climatic fluctuations and low persistence could lead to endangerment even if the future potential range size is large. These considerations may render habitat corridors ineffectual for some species, and conservationists may need to consider managed relocation and augmentation of in situ populations.

Negative Emissions Technologies: What Role in Meeting Paris Agreement Targets? - EASAC (European Academies' Science Advisory Council (EASAC), 2018)
ISBN: 978-3-8047-3841-6

Precipitation change in the United States - Easterling, D.R.; Kunkel, K.E.; Arnold, J.R.; Knutson, T.; LeGrande, A.N.; Leung, L.R.; Vose, R.S.; Waliser, D.E.; Wehner, M.F. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

A new method for detecting undocumented discontinuities in climatological time series - Easterling, David R.; Peterson, Thomas C. (International Journal of Climatology, 1995)
The development of homogeneous climatological time series is a crucial step in examining climate fluctuations and change. We review and test methods that have been proposed previously for detecting inhomogeneities, and introduce a new method we have developed. This method is based on a combination of regression analysis and non‐parametric statistics. After evaluation against other techniques, using both simulated and observed data, our technique appears to have the best overall performance.

On the development and use of homogenized climate datasets - Easterling, David R.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Karl, Thomas R. (Journal of Climate, 1996)
At the National Climatic Data Center, two basic approaches to making homogeneity adjustments to climate data have been developed. The first is based on the use of metadata (station history files) and is used in the adjustments made to the U.S. Historical Climatology Network monthly dataset. The second approach is non-metadata based and was developed for use with the Global Historical Climatology Network dataset, since there are not extensive station history files for most stations in the dataset. In this paper the two methodologies are reviewed and the adjustments made using each are compared, then the results are discussed. Last, some brief guidelines on the limitations and uses of these data are provided.

Is the climate warming or cooling? - Easterling, D.R.; Wehner, M.F. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2009)
Numerous websites, blogs and articles in the media have claimed that the climate is no longer warming, and is now cooling. Here we show that periods of no trend or even cooling of the globally averaged surface air temperature are found in the last 34 years of the observed record, and in climate model simulations of the 20th and 21st century forced with increasing greenhouse gases. We show that the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface air temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer‐term warming.
Keywords: global warming; climate change; 3305 Atmospheric Processes: Climate change and variability; 3337 Atmospheric Processes: Global climate models; 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics; 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere

The effects of road culverts on nekton in New England salt marshes: Implications for tidal restoration - Eberhardt, Alyson L.; Burdick, David M.; Dionne, Michele (Restoration Ecology, 2011)
Keywords: culvert hydrology nekton restoration salt marsh tidal restriction

Human Health - Ebi, K.L.; Balbus, J.M.; Luber, G.; Bole, A.; Crimmins, A.; Glass, G.; Saha, S.; Shimamoto, M.M.; Trtanj, J.; White-Newsome, J.L. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Using uncertain climate and development information in health adaptation planning - Ebi, Kristie L.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Isaksen, Tania Busch (Current Environmental Health Reports, 2016)
To aid health adaptation decision-making, there are increasing efforts to provide climate projections at finer temporal and spatial scales. Relying solely on projected climate changes for longer-term decisions makes the implicit assumption that sources of vulnerability other than climate change will remain the same, which is not very probable. Over longer time horizons, this approach likely over estimates the extent to which climate change could alter the magnitude and pattern of health outcomes, introducing systematic bias into health management decisions. To balance this potential bias, decision-makers also need projections of other drivers of health outcomes that are, like climate change, recognized determinants of some disease burdens. Incorporating projections via an iterative process that allows for regular updates based on new knowledge and experience has the potential to improve the utility of fine-scale climate projections in health system adaptation to climate change.

Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts - Ebi, Kristie L.; McGregor, Glenn (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2008)

Dengue in a changing climate - Ebi, Kristie L.; Nealon, Joshua (Environmental Research, 2016)
Keywords: Climate change Dengue Vector control Dengue vaccine

Heat watch/warning systems save lives: Estimated costs and benefits for Philadelphia 1995–98 - Ebi, Kristie L.; Teisberg, Thomas J.; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Robinson, Lawrence; Weiher, Rodney F. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2004)
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Environmental impacts of the U.S. health care system and effects on public health - Eckelman, Matthew J.; Sherman, Jodi (PLOS ONE, 2016)
The U.S. health care sector is highly interconnected with industrial activities that emit much of the nation’s pollution to air, water, and soils. We estimate emissions directly and indirectly attributable to the health care sector, and potential harmful effects on public health. Negative environmental and public health outcomes were estimated through economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIOLCA) modeling using National Health Expenditures (NHE) for the decade 2003–2013 and compared to national totals. In 2013, the health care sector was also responsible for significant fractions of national air pollution emissions and impacts, including acid rain (12%), greenhouse gas emissions (10%), smog formation (10%) criteria air pollutants (9%), stratospheric ozone depletion (1%), and carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic air toxics (1–2%). The largest contributors to impacts are discussed from both the supply side (EIOLCA economic sectors) and demand side (NHE categories), as are trends over the study period. Health damages from these pollutants are estimated at 470,000 DALYs lost from pollution-related disease, or 405,000 DALYs when adjusted for recent shifts in power generation sector emissions. These indirect health burdens are commensurate with the 44,000–98,000 people who die in hospitals each year in the U.S. as a result of preventable medical errors, but are currently not attributed to our health system. Concerted efforts to improve environmental performance of health care could reduce expenditures directly through waste reduction and energy savings, and indirectly through reducing pollution burden on public health, and ought to be included in efforts to improve health care quality and safety.