The role of meteorological processes in the description of uncertainty for climate change decision-making - Briley, Laura J.; Ashley, Walker S.; Rood, Richard B.; Krmenec, Andrew (Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017)
Downscaled climate data are available at fine spatial scales making them desirable to local climate change practitioners. However, without a description of their uncertainty, practitioners cannot know if they provide quality information. We pose that part of the foundation for the description of uncertainty is an assessment of the ability of the underlying climate model to represent the meteorological or weather-scale processes. Here, we demonstrate an assessment of precipitation processes for the Great Lakes region using the Bias Corrected and Spatially Downscaled (BCSD) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) projections. A major weakness of the underlying models is their inability to simulate the effects of the Great Lakes, which is an important issue for most global climate models. There is also uncertainty among the models in the timing of transition between dominant precipitation processes going from the warm to cool season and vice versa. In addition, warm-season convective precipitation processes very greatly among the models. From the assessment, we discuss how process-based uncertainties in the models are inherited by the downscaled projections and how bias correction increases uncertainty in cases where precipitation processes are not well represented. Implications of these findings are presented for three regional examples: lake-effect snow, the spring seasonal transition, and summertime lake-effect precipitation.

The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change - Brimelow, Julian C.; Burrows, William R.; Hanesiak, John M. (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Cascades of green: A review of ecosystem-based adaptation in urban areas - Brink, Ebba; Aalders, Theodor; Ádám, Dóra; Feller, Robert; Henselek, Yuki; Hoffmann, Alexander; Ibe, Karin; Matthey-Doret, Aude; Meyer, Moritz; Negrut, N. Lucian; Rau, Anna-Lena; Riewerts, Bente; et al. (Global Environmental Change, 2016)
Keywords: Disaster risk reduction Ecosystem-based management Ecosystem services cascade model Green and blue infrastructure Nature-based solutions Resilience

Arctic communities perceive climate impacts on access as a critical challenge to availability of subsistence resources - Brinkman, Todd J.; Hansen, Winslow D.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Kofinas, Gary; BurnSilver, Shauna; Rupp, T. Scott (Climatic Change, 2016)

Drought and aquatic community resilience: The role of eggs and seeds in sediments of temporary wetlands - Brock, M. A.; Nielsen, Daryl L.; Shiel, Russell J.; Green, John D.; Langley, John D. (Freshwater Biology, 2003)
Keywords: aquatic plants egg bank seed bank zooplankton

Does planning work? Testing the implementation of local environmental planning in Florida - Brody, Samuel D.; Highfield, Wesley E. (Journal of the American Planning Association, 2005)

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline - Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C. (Ecological Applications, 2015)
Keywords: abundance Arctic climate warming Cormack-Jolly-Seber demographic modeling Horvitz-Thompson mark–recapture sea ice survival Ursus maritimus

Storm surge in the San Francisco Bay/Delta and nearby coastal locations - Bromirski, Peter D.; Flick, Reinhard E. (Shore & Beach, 2008)
California’s San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (bay/delta) estuary system is subject to externally forced storm surge propagating from the open ocean. In the lower reaches of the delta, storm surge dominates water level extremes and can have a significant impact on wetlands, freshwater aquifers, levees, and ecosys- tems. The magnitude and distribution of open-ocean tide generated storm surge throughout the bay/delta are described by a network of stations within the bay/delta system and along the California coast. Correlation of non-tide water levels between stations in the network indicates that peak storm surge fluctuations propagate into the bay/delta system from outside the Golden Gate. The initial peak surge propa- gates from the open ocean inland, while a trailing (smaller amplitude) secondary peak is associated with river discharge. Extreme non-tide water levels are generally associated with extreme Sacramento-San Joaquin river flows, underscoring the po- tential impact of sea level rise on the delta levees and bay/delta ecosystem.

Storminess variability along the California coast: 1858–2000 - Bromirski, Peter D.; Flick, Reinhard E.; Cayan, Daniel R. (Journal of Climate, 2003)
The longest available hourly tide gauge record along the West Coast (U.S.) at San Francisco yields meteorologically forced nontide residuals (NTR), providing an estimate of the variation in “storminess” from 1858 to 2000. Mean monthly positive NTR (associated with low sea level pressure) show no substantial change along the central California coast since 1858 or over the last 50 years. However, in contrast, the highest 2% of extreme winter NTR levels exhibit a significant increasing trend since about 1950. Extreme winter NTR also show pronounced quasi-periodic decadal-scale variability that is relatively consistent over the last 140 years. Atmospheric sea level pressure anomalies (associated with years having high winter NTR) take the form of a distinct, large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, with intense storminess associated with a broad, southeasterly displaced, deep Aleutian low that directs storm tracks toward the California coast.

Climate-induced community relocations: Creating an adaptive governance framework based in human rights doctrine - Bronen, Robin (New York University Review of Law & Social Change, 2011)

Climate-induced community relocations: Using integrated social-ecological assessments to foster adaptation and resilience - Bronen, Robin (Ecology and Society, 2015)
Extreme weather events coupled with sea level rise and erosion will cause coastal and riverine areas where people live and maintain livelihoods to disappear permanently. Adaptation to these environmental changes, including the permanent relocation of millions of people, requires new governance tools. In the USA, local governments, often with state-level and national-level support, will be primarily responsible for protecting residents from climate-change impacts and implementing policies needed to protect their welfare. Government agencies have a variety of tools to facilitate protection in place and managed coastal retreat but have very limited tools to facilitate community relocation. In addition, no institutional mechanism currently exists to determine whether and when preventive relocation needs to occur to protect people from climate change impacts. Based on research involving four Alaska Native communities threatened by climate-induced environmental impacts, I propose the design and implementation of an adaptive governance framework to respond to the need to relocate populations. In this context, adaptive governance means the ability of institutions to dynamically respond to climate change impacts. A component of this adaptive governance framework is a social-ecological monitoring and assessment tool that can facilitate collaborative knowledge production by community residents and governance institutions to guide sustainable adaptation strategies and determine whether and when relocation needs to occur. The framework, including the monitoring and assessment tool, has not been systematically tested. However, the potential use of this tool is discussed by drawing on empirical examples of Alaskan communities faced with accelerating rates of erosion.
Keywords: adaptation climate change coastal retreat community relocation social-ecological monitoring and assessment

Adaptive governance and institutional strategies for climate-induced community relocations in Alaska - Bronen, R.; Chapin III, F. S. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
This article presents governance and institutional strategies for climate-induced community relocations. In Alaska, repeated extreme weather events coupled with climate change-induced coastal erosion impact the habitability of entire communities. Community residents and government agencies concur that relocation is the only adaptation strategy that can protect lives and infrastructure. Community relocation stretches the financial and institutional capacity of existing governance institutions. Based on a comparative analysis of three Alaskan communities, Kivalina, Newtok, and Shishmaref, which have chosen to relocate, we examine the institutional constraints to relocation in the United States. We identify policy changes and components of a toolkit that can facilitate community-based adaptation when environmental events threaten people's lives and protection in place is not possible. Policy changes include amendment of the Stafford Act to include gradual geophysical processes, such as erosion, in the statutory definition of disaster and the creation of an adaptive governance framework to allow communities a continuum of responses from protection in place to community relocation. Key components of the toolkit are local leadership and integration of social and ecological well-being into adaptation planning.
Bronen, Robin Chapin, F Stuart 3rd Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. United States Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013 Jun 4;110(23):9320-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1210508110. Epub 2013 May 20.
Keywords: Alaska Climate Change Conservation of Natural Resources/ methods Consumer Participation Emigration and Immigration/ statistics & numerical data Environmental Policy Humans Residence Characteristics

Climate change and displacement: Challenges and needs to address an imminent reality - Bronen, Robin; Maldonado, Julie; Marino, Elizabeth; Hardison, Preston (Challenging the Prevailing Paradigm of Displacement and Resettlement: Risks, Impoverishment, Legacies, Solutions, 2018)

Synergies among extinction drivers under global change - Brook, B. W.; Sodhi, N. S.; Bradshaw, C. J. A. (Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2008)

Statistical estimation of parameters in a disease transmission model: Analysis of a Cryptosporidium outbreak - Brookhart, M. Alan; Hubbard, Alan E.; van der Laan, Mark J.; Colford, John M.; Eisenberg, Joseph N. S. (Statistics in Medicine, 2002)
Keywords: mathematical model profile likelihood disease transmission Cryptosporidium outbreak

Are harmful algal blooms becoming the greatest inland water quality threat to public health and aquatic ecosystems? - Brooks, Bryan W.; Lazorchak, James M.; Howard, Meredith D.A.; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V.; Morton, Steve L.; Perkins, Dawn A.K.; Reavie, Euan D.; Scott, Geoffrey I.; Smith, Stephanie A.; Steevens, Jeffery A. (Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 2016)
In this Focus article, the authors ask a seemingly simple question: Are harmful algal blooms (HABs) becoming the greatest inland water quality threat to public health and aquatic ecosystems? When HAB events require restrictions on fisheries, recreation, and drinking water uses of inland water bodies significant economic consequences result. Unfortunately, the magnitude, frequency, and duration of HABs in inland waters are poorly understood across spatiotemporal scales and differentially engaged among states, tribes, and territories. Harmful algal bloom impacts are not as predictable as those from conventional chemical contaminants, for which water quality assessment and management programs were primarily developed, because interactions among multiple natural and anthropogenic factors determine the likelihood and severity to which a HAB will occur in a specific water body. These forcing factors can also affect toxin production. Beyond site-specific water quality degradation caused directly by HABs, the presence of HAB toxins can negatively influence routine surface water quality monitoring, assessment, and management practices. Harmful algal blooms present significant challenges for achieving water quality protection and restoration goals when these toxins confound interpretation of monitoring results and environmental quality standards implementation efforts for other chemicals and stressors. Whether HABs presently represent the greatest threat to inland water quality is debatable, though in inland waters of developed countries they typically cause more severe acute impacts to environmental quality than conventional chemical contamination events. The authors identify several timely research needs. Environmental toxicology, environmental chemistry, and risk-assessment expertise must interface with ecologists, engineers, and public health practitioners to engage the complexities of HAB assessment and management, to address the forcing factors for HAB formation, and to reduce the threats posed to inland surface water quality. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:6–13. © 2015 SETAC

Severe thunderstorms and climate change - Brooks, H. E. (Atmospheric Research, 2013)
Keywords: Severe thunderstorms Tornadoes Climate change

Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States - Brooks, Harold E.; Carbin, Gregory W.; Marsh, Patrick T. (Science, 2014)
Whether or not climate change has had an impact on the occurrence of tornadoes in the United States has become a question of high public and scientific interest, but changes in how tornadoes are reported have made it difficult to answer it convincingly. We show that, excluding the weakest tornadoes, the mean annual number of tornadoes has remained relatively constant, but their variability of occurrence has increased since the 1970s. This is due to a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes combined with an increase in days with many tornadoes, leading to greater variability on annual and monthly time scales and changes in the timing of the start of the tornado season.Will global warming cause more tornadoes? If so, that has not happened yet. Brooks et al. compiled data on the occurrence of tornadoes in the United States between 1954 and 2013 to determine if and how tornado numbers have changed. Although the authors saw no clear trend in the annual number of tornadoes, they did see more clusters of tornadoes since the 1970s. In other words, there has been a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes but an increase in the number of days with multiple tornadoes. Why this clustering effect has occurred is not clear.Science, this issue p. 349%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/346/6207/349.full.pdf

The Common Pot: The Recovery of Native Space in the Northeast - Brooks, Lisa (Indigenous Americas, 2008)

Snowpack controls on nitrogen cycling and export in seasonally snow‐covered catchments - Brooks, Paul D.; Williams, Mark W. (Hydrological Processes, 1999)
Here we provide an overview of current research activities on nitrogen (N) cycling in high‐elevation catchments of the Colorado Front Range. We then use this information to develop a conceptual model of how snow cover controls subnivial (below snowpack) microbial processes and N leachate from the snow‐soil interface to surface waters. This model is based on research that identifies subnivial processes as a major control on the leaching loss of N from soil during snowmelt. These subnivial soil processes are controlled by the development of the seasonal snow pack that insulates soil from cold air temperatures and allows heterotrophic microbial activity in the soil to immobilize N. In this model the duration of snow‐cover is divided into four snowpack regimes; zone I is characterized by shallow‐short duration snowpacks, zone II is characterized by high interannual variability in snow depth and duration, zone III is characterized by early developing, continuous snow cover, and zone IV is characterized by deep, long‐duration snow cover verging on perennial snowpacks. In zone I, soils remain frozen and there is little microbial activity and N leachate is high. In zone II, total microbial activity is highly variable and the amount of N leachate is highly variable. In zone III, total microbial activity is high and there is little N leachate. In zone IV, microbial activity is reduced because of carbon limitation and N leachate is high. This model suggests that a portion of the spatial and temporal variability observed in N export from these seasonally snow‐covered systems is due to variability in winter snow cover across landscape types and inter‐annually within a landscape type. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Miscanthus: A fast‐growing crop for biofuels and chemicals production - Brosse, Nicolas; Dufour, Anthony; Meng, Xianzhi; Sun, Qining; Ragauskas, Arthur (Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 2012)
Miscanthus represents a key candidate energy crop for use in biomass‐to‐liquid fuel‐conversion processes and biorefineries to produce a range of liquid fuels and chemicals; it has recently attracted considerable attention. Its yield, elemental composition, carbohydrate and lignin content and composition are of high importance to be reviewed for future biofuel production and development. Starting from Miscanthus, various pre‐treatment technologies have recently been developed in the literature to break down the lignin structure, disrupt the crystalline structure of cellulose, and enhance its enzyme digestibility. These technologies included chemical, physicochemical, and biological pre‐treatments. Due to its significantly lower concentrations of moisture and ash, Miscanthus also represents a key candidate crop for use in biomass‐to‐liquid conversion processes to produce a range of liquid fuels and chemicals by thermochemical conversion. The goal of this paper is to review the current status of the technology for biofuel production from this crop within a biorefinery context.

Water quality following extensive beetle-induced tree mortality: Interplay of aromatic carbon loading, disinfection byproducts, and hydrologic drivers - Brouillard, Brent M.; Dickenson, Eric R. V.; Mikkelson, Kristin M.; Sharp, Jonathan O. (Science of the Total Environment, 2016)
Keywords: Total organic carbon Disinfection byproducts Tree mortality Bark beetle infestation Hydrologic drivers

Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States: Methodology and Initial Results - Brown, Austin; Beiter, Philipp; Heimiller, Donna; Davidson, Carolyn; Denholm, Paul; Melius, Jennifer; Lopez, Anthony; Dylan Hettinger; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2016)

Technical Memorandum #1: Impacts of Climate Change on Honolulu Water Supplies and Planning Strategies for Mitigation—Understanding Future Climate, Demand, and Land Use Projections for the Island of Oahu - Brown and Caldwell (2016)

A decision-analytic approach to managing climate risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes - Brown, Casey; Werick, William; Leger, Wendy; Fay, David (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2011)
Keywords: climate change decision analysis risk management planning under uncertainty

Rural land-use trends in the conterminous United States, 1950-2000 - Brown, D.G.; Johnson, K.M.; Loveland, T.R.; Theobald, D.M. (Ecological Applications, 2005)
In order to understand the magnitude, direction, and geographic distribution of land-use changes, we evaluated land-use trends in U.S. counties during the latter half of the 20th century. Our paper synthesizes the dominant spatial and temporal trends in population, agriculture, and urbanized land uses, using a variety of data sources and an ecoregion classification as a frame of reference. A combination of increasing attractiveness of nonmetropolitan areas in the period 1970–2000, decreasing household size, and decreasing density of settlement has resulted in important trends in the patterns of developed land. By 2000, the area of low-density, exurban development beyond the urban fringe occupied nearly 15 times the area of higher density urbanized development. Efficiency gains, mechanization, and agglomeration of agricultural concerns has resulted in data that show cropland area to be stable throughout the Corn Belt and parts of the West between 1950 and 2000, but decreasing by about 22% east of the Mississippi River. We use a regional case study of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions to focus in more detail on the land-cover changes resulting from these dynamics. Dominating were land-cover changes associated with the timber practices in the forested plains ecoregions and urbanization in the piedmont ecoregions. Appalachian ecoregions show the slowest rates of land-cover change. The dominant trends of tremendous exurban growth, throughout the United States, and conversion and abandonment of agricultural lands, especially in the eastern United States, have important implications because they affect large areas of the country, the functioning of ecological systems, and the potential for restoration.
Keywords: agriculture,; demography,; dispersed development,; land-use change

Ch. 13: Land use and land cover change - Brown, Daniel G.; Polsky, Colin; Bolstad, Paul; Brody, Samuel D.; Hulse, David; Kroh, Roger; Loveland, Thomas R.; Thomson, Allison (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Ch. 15: Human health - Brown, H.E.; Comrie, A.; Drechsler, D.; Barker, C.M.; Basu, R.; Brown, T.; Gershunov, A.; Kilpatrick, A.M.; Reisen, W.K.; Ruddell, D.M. (Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, 2013)

Climate, windstorms, and the risk of valley fever (Coccidioidomycosis) - Brown, Heidi E.; Comrie, Andrew C.; Tamerius, James; Khan, Mohammed; A.Tabor, Joseph; Galgiani, John N. (The Influence of Global Environmental Change on Infectious Disease Dynamics, 2014)

Projection of climate change influences on U.S. West Nile virus vectors - Brown, Heidi E.; Young, Alex; Lega, Joceline; Andreadis, Theodore G.; Schurich, Jessica; Comrie, Andrew (Earth Interactions, 2015)
While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. This study describes a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vectorborne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species-specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, this study estimates mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location; however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, midsummer decreases in abundance may be offset by shorter extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.
Keywords: Ecological models,Disease,Ecological models,Local effects

Merging remote sensing data and national agricultural statistics to model change in irrigated agriculture - Brown, Jesslyn F.; Pervez, Md Shahriar (Agricultural Systems, 2014)
Keywords: Irrigated agriculture Remote sensing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index High Plains Aquifer Geospatial model

Making soil health a part of rangeland management - Brown, Joel R.; Herrick, Jeffrey E. (Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2016)

Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System - Brown, M.E.; Antle, J.M.; Backlund, P.; Carr, E.R.; Easterling, W.E.; Walsh, M.K.; Ammann, C.; Attavanich, W.; Barrett, C.B.; Bellemare, M.F.; Dancheck, V.; Funk, C.; et al. (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2015)

Do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change? - Brown, Molly E.; Carr, Edward R.; Grace, Kathryn L.; Wiebe, Keith; Funk, Christopher C.; Attavanich, Witsanu; Backlund, Peter; Buja, Lawrence (Food Policy, 2017)

Trends in U.S. surface humidity, 1930–2010 - Brown, Paula J.; DeGaetano, Arthur T. (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013)
U.S. hourly surface observations are examined at 145 stations to identify annual and seasonal changes in temperature, dewpoint, relative humidity, and specific humidity since 1930. Because of numerous systematic instrument changes that have occurred, a homogeneity assessment was performed on temperatures and dewpoints. Dewpoints contained higher breakpoint detection rates associated with instrumentation changes than did temperatures. Temperature trends were tempered by adjusting the data, whereas dewpoints were unaffected. The effects were the same whether the adjustments were based on statistically detected or fixed-year breakpoints. Average long-term trends (1930–2010) indicate that temperature has warmed but that little change has occurred in dewpoint and specific humidity. Warming is strongest in spring. There is evidence of inhomogeneity in the relative humidity record that primarily affects data from prior to 1950. Therefore, long-term decreases in relative humidity, which are strongest in winter, need to be viewed with caution. Trends since 1947 indicate that the warming of temperatures has coincided with increases in dewpoints and a moistening of specific humidity. This moistening is especially pronounced during the summer in the Midwest. For the nation, trends in relative humidity show little change for the period 1947–2010, during which these data are more homogeneous. Moistening has occurred throughout the central United States while other regions have experienced drying. Urban-related warming and drying trends are present in the data, but their effect is minimal. Regional changes in land use and moisture availability are likely influencing trends in atmospheric moisture.
Keywords: Climate change,Surface temperature,Water vapor

The response of Northern Hemisphere snow cover to a changing climate - Brown, Ross D.; Mote, Philip W. (Journal of Climate, 2009)
A snowpack model sensitivity study, observed changes of snow cover in the NOAA satellite dataset, and snow cover simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset are used to provide new insights into the climate response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover. Under conditions of warming and increasing precipitation that characterizes both observed and projected climate change over much of the NH land area with seasonal snow cover, the sensitivity analysis indicated snow cover duration (SCD) was the snow cover variable exhibiting the strongest climate sensitivity, with sensitivity varying with climate regime and elevation. The highest snow cover–climate sensitivity was found in maritime climates with extensive winter snowfall—for example, the coastal mountains of western North America (NA). Analysis of trends in snow cover duration during the 1966–2007 period of NOAA data showed the largest decreases were concentrated in a zone where seasonal mean air temperatures were in the range of −5° to +5°C that extended around the midlatitudinal coastal margins of the continents. These findings were echoed by the climate models that showed earlier and more widespread decreases in SCD than annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax), with the zone of earliest significant decrease located over the maritime margins of NA and western Europe. The lowest SCD–climate sensitivity was observed in continental interior climates with relatively cold and dry winters, where precipitation plays a greater role in snow cover variability. The sensitivity analysis suggested a potentially complex elevation response of SCD and SWEmax to increasing temperature and precipitation in mountain regions as a result of nonlinear interactions between the duration of the snow season and snow accumulation rates.
Keywords: Northern Hemisphere,Climate change,Snow cover

Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922–2010 including an assessment of uncertainty - Brown, R. D.; Robinson, D. A. (The Cryosphere, 2011)

Designing urban parks that ameliorate the effects of climate change - Brown, Robert D.; Vanos, Jennifer; Kenny, Natasha; Lenzholzer, Sanda (Landscape and Urban Planning, 2015)
Many inhabitants of cities throughout the world suffer from health problems and discomfort that are caused by overheating of urban areas, and there is compelling evidence that these problems will be exacerbated by global climate change. Most cities are not designed to ameliorate these effects although it is well-known that this is possible, especially through evidence-based climate-responsive design of urban open spaces. Urban parks and green spaces have the potential to provide thermally comfortable environments and help reduce vulnerability to heat stress. However, in order for them to provide this function, parks must be designed within the context of the prevailing climate and predicted future climates. To analyze the effects of elements that alter microclimate in parks, we used human energy budget simulations. We modelled the outdoor human energy budget in a range of warm to hot climate zones and interpreted the results in terms of thermal comfort and health vulnerability. Reduction of solar radiant input with trees had the greatest effect in all test cities. Reduction in air temperature was the second-most important component, and in some climates was nearly as important as incorporating shade. We then conducted similar modelling using predicted climates for the middle of the century, emphasizing the importance of city-level efforts for park design to assist in minimizing future climate-related urban health risks. These simulations suggested that heat waves in many climates will produce outdoor environments where people will be in extreme danger of heat stress, but that appropriately designed parks can reduce the threat.
Keywords: urban heat urban forest climate change

Physiological responses of feedlot heifers provided access to different levels of shade - Brown-Brandl, T. M.; Chitko-McKown, C. G.; Eigenberg, R. A.; Mayer, J. J.; Welsh, T. H.; Davis, J. D.; Purswell, J. L. (Animal, 2017)
Heat stress has a significant impact on all livestock and poultry species causing economic losses and animal well-being concerns. Providing shade is one heat-abatement strategy that has been studied for years. Material selected to provide shade for animals greatly influences the overall stress reduction provided by shade. A study was conducted to quantify both the environment and animal response, when cattle had no shade access during summertime exposure or were given access to shade provided by three different materials. A total of 32 Black Angus heifers were assigned to one of the four treatment pens according to weight (eight animals per pen). Each pen was assigned a shade treatment: No Shade, Snow Fence, 60% Aluminet Shade Cloth and 100% Shade Cloth. In the shaded treatment pens, the shade structure covered ~40% of the pen (7.5 m2/animal). Animals were moved to a different treatment every 2 weeks in a 4×4 Latin square design to ensure each treatment was applied to each group of animals. Both environmental parameters and physiological responses were measured during the experiment. Environmental parameters included dry-bulb temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, black globe temperature (BGT), solar radiation (SR) and feedlot surface temperature. Animal response measurements included manual respiration rate (RRm), electronic respiration rate (RRe), vaginal temperature (body temperature (BT)), complete blood count (CBC) and plasma cortisol. The environmental data demonstrated changes proportional to the quality of shade offered. However, the animal responses did not follow this same trend. Some of the data suggest that any amount of shade was beneficial to the animals. However, Snow Fence may not offer adequate protection to reduce BT. For some of the parameters (BT, CBC and cortisol), 60% Aluminet and 100% Shade Cloth offers similar protection. The 60% Aluminet lowered RRe the most during extreme conditions. When considering all parameters, environmental and physiological, 60% Aluminet Shade Cloth offered reductions of BGT, SR, feedlot surface temperature and the best (or equal to the best) overall protection for the animals (RRe, RRm, BT, blood parameters).
Keywords: body temperature cattle heat stress respiration rate shade

Water spray cooling during handling of feedlot cattle - Brown-Brandl, Tami M.; Eigenberg, Roger A.; Nienaber, John A. (International Journal of Biometeorology, 2010)
Activities involved in receiving or working (e.g., sorting, dehorning, castration, weighing, implanting, etc.) of feedlot cattle cause an increase in body temperature. During hot weather the increased body temperature may disrupt normal behaviors including eating, which can be especially detrimental to the well-being and performance of the animals. Sprinkle cooling of animals has been successfully employed within the pen; however, added moisture to the pens’ surface increases odor generation from the pen. A study was conducted to investigate the effectiveness of a single instance of wetting an animal within the working facility instead of in the pen, which could potentially provide extra evaporative cooling to offset the added heat produced by activity. Sixty-four cross-bred heifers were assigned to one of eight pens on the basis of weight. On four separate occasions during hot conditions (average temperature 28.2 ± 1.9°C, 29.1 ± 2.0°C, 28.9 ± 3.0°C, and 26.8 ± 1.6°C; with the temperature ranging from 22.6 to 32.5°C during the trials), the heifers were moved from their pens to and from the working facility (a building with a scale and squeeze chute located 160–200 m away). While in the squeeze chute, four of the pens of heifers were sprinkle cooled and the remaining four pens were worked as normal. The heifers that were treated had a body temperature that peaked sooner (31.9 ± 0.63 min compared to 37.6 ± 0.62) with a lower peak body temperature (39.55 ± 0.03°C compared to 39.74 ± 0.03°C), and recovered sooner (70.5 ± 2.4 min compared to 83.2 ± 2.4 min). The treated animals also had a lower panting score, a visual assessment of level of cattle heat stress (1.1 ± 0.2 compared to 1.16 ± 0.2). The behavior measurements that were taken did not indicate a change in behavior. It was concluded that while a single instance of wetting an animal within the working facility did not completely offset the increase in body temperature, it was beneficial to the animals without needing to add water to the pen surface, thus reducing the potential for odor generation.

Benefits of providing shade to feedlot cattle of different breeds - Brown-Brandl, Tami M.; Eigenberg, Roger A.; Nienaber, John A. (Transactions of the ASABE, 2013)
Heat stress in cattle causes decreases in feed intake, growth, and efficiency. In extreme cases, heat stress can cause death of vulnerable animals. A simple shade can reduce the animal’s radiant heat load by 30% or more. However, for most feedlots, adding shade structures to all pens is cost-prohibitive. The objective of this study was to determine how animals, with known risk factors (color, previous cases of pneumonia, condition score, and temperament) for heat stress, respond to having access to shade. Feedlot heifers (384 animals; 128 animals year-1 for three years) of two breeds (Angus and Charolais) and two composite breeds (MARC I [¼ Charolais, ¼ Braunvieh, ¼ Limousin, ⅛ Angus, and ⅛ Hereford] and MARC III [¼ Pinzgauer, ¼ Red Poll, ¼ Hereford, and ¼ Angus]) were selected and penned on the basis of weight and breed. Heifers were weighed and scored for condition and temperament every 28 days. Heat tolerance was accessed by measurements of respiration rate taken twice daily at 08:00 and 13:00 h on a preselected group of 64 animals. It was determined that shade lowered the respiration rate of all animals. In addition, shade had a greater impact on the Angus cattle than the Charolais cattle, with the two composite breeds (with dark red and tan hides) having an intermediate response. Access to shade did not improve weight gains of any of the breeds.
Keywords: Cattle Feedlot Heat stress Respiration rate Shade.

United States indigenous populations and dementia: Is there a case for culture-based psychosocial interventions? - Browne, Colette V.; Ka’opua, Lana Sue; Jervis, Lori L.; Alboroto, Richard; Trockman, Meredith L. (The Gerontologist, 2017)
Dementia is an issue of increasing importance in indigenous populations in the United States. We begin by discussing what is known about dementia prevalence and elder family caregiving in American Indian, Alaska Native, and Native Hawaiian populations. We briefly highlight examples of culture-based programming developed to address a number of chronic diseases and conditions that disproportionately affect these communities. These programs have produced positive health outcomes in American Indian, Alaska Native, and Native Hawaiian populations and may have implications for research and practice in the dementia context of culture-based interventions. Evidence-based and culture-based psychosocial programming in dementia care for indigenous populations in the United States designed by the communities they intend to serve may offer elders and families the best potential for care that is accessible, respectful, and utilized.
10.1093/geront/gnw059

A climate-based model predicts the spatial distribution of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in the United States - Brownstein, John S.; Holford, Theodore R.; Fish, Durland (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2003)
An understanding of the spatial distribution of the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is a fundamental component in assessing human risk for Lyme disease in much of the United States. Although a county-level vector distribution map exists for the United States, its accuracy is limited by arbitrary categories of its reported presence. It is unknown whether reported positive areas can support established populations and whether negative areas are suitable for established populations. The steadily increasing range of I. scapularis in the United States suggests that all suitable habitats are not currently occupied. Therefore, we developed a spatially predictive logistic model for I. scapularis in the 48 conterminous states to improve the previous vector distribution map. We used ground-observed environmental data to predict the probability of established I. scapularis populations. The autologistic analysis showed that maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures as well as vapor pressure significantly contribute to population maintenance with an accuracy of 95% (p < 0.0001). A cutoff probability for habitat suitability was assessed by sensitivity analysis and was used to reclassify the previous distribution map. The spatially modeled relationship between I. scapularis presence and large-scale environmental data provides a robust suitability model that reveals essential environmental determinants of habitat suitability, predicts emerging areas of Lyme disease risk, and generates the future pattern of I. scapularis across the United States.

Climate Change in Noatak, Alaska: Strategies for Community Health - Brubaker, Michael; Bell, Jake; Berner, James; Black, Mike; Chaven, Raj; Smith, Jeff; Warren, John (Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, 2011)

Climate Change in Kivalina, Alaska: Strategies for Community Health - Brubaker, Michael; Berner, James; Bell, Jacob; Warren, John (Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, 2011)

Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska - Brubaker, M.; Berner, J.; Chavan, R.; Warren, J. (Global Health Action, 2011)

Climate Change in the Bering Strait Region: Observations and Lessons From Seven Communities - Brubaker, Mike; Zweifel, Kevin; Demir, Jennifer; Shannon, Anahma (Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, 2015)

Lessons from first-generation climate science integrators - Brugger, Julie; Meadow, Alison; Horangic, Alexandra (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016)
There is an increasing demand for climate science that decision-makers can readily use to address issues created by climate variability and climate change. To be usable, the science must be relevant to their context and the complex management challenges they face and credible and legitimate in their eyes. The literature on usable science provides guiding principles for its development, which indicate that climate scientists who want to participate in the process need skills in addition to their traditional disciplinary training to facilitate communicating, interacting, and developing and sustaining relationships with stakeholders outside their disciplines. However, the literature does not address questions about what specific skills are needed and how to provide climate scientists with these skills. To address these questions, this article presents insights from interviews with highly experienced and respected "first generation” climate science integrators from across the United States. The term “climate science integrator” is used to refer to climate scientists who specialize in helping decision-makers to integrate the best available climate science into their decision-making processes. The cadre of scientists who participated in the research has largely developed their methods for working successfully with stakeholders without formal training but often with the guidance of a mentor. Their collective wisdom illuminates the kinds of skills needed to be a successful science integrator and provides mentoring for aspiring science integrators. It also suggests the types of training that would cultivate these skills and indicates ways to change academic training and institutions to better encourage the next generation and to support this kind of work.

Parasite infection and decreased thermal tolerance: Impact of proliferative kidney disease on a wild salmonid fish in the context of climate change - Bruneaux, Matthieu; Visse, Marko; Gross, Riho; Pukk, Lilian; Saks, Lauri; Vasemägi, Anti (Functional Ecology, 2017)
Keywords: aerobic scope brown trout fish leucocyte formula upper thermal tolerance

Thermal stress and coral cover as drivers of coral disease outbreaks - Bruno, J.F.; Selig, E.R.; Casey, K.S.; Page, C.A.; Willis, B.L.; Harvell, C.D.; Sweatman, H.; Melendy, A.M. (PLoS Biology, 2007)

Coral reef degradation is not correlated with local human population density - Bruno, John F.; Valdivia, Abel (Scientific Reports, 2016)

Dramatic response to climate change in the Southwest: Robert Whittaker's 1963 Arizona Mountain plant transect revisited - Brusca, Richard C.; Wiens, John F.; Meyer, Wallace M.; Eble, Jeff; Franklin, Kim; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Moore, Wendy (Ecology and Evolution, 2013)
Keywords: climate change elevational shifts montane plants Southwest

Historical land use, nitrogen, and coastal eutrophication: A paleoecological perspective - Brush, Grace S. (Estuaries and Coasts, 2009)
Organisms and chemicals preserved in sediment cores from the Chesapeake estuary in mid-Atlantic USA are consistent with a precolonial landscape covered with a diversity of forests and marshes, large and small. During the past 300 years, many of the wetlands have been drained, and the landscape was converted to agricultural fields and urban and suburban development. During this time, sources of nitrogen have diversified, and loadings have increased. Since precolonial time, the mesohaline estuary has become increasingly eutrophic and anoxic. Estuaries and coastal regions throughout the world have experienced similar conditions in their recent history. These changes are recorded in Chesapeake sediment cores by increases in ragweed pollen, dry taxa, sedimentation rates, nitrogen influxes, and a major change in estuarine autotrophs from benthic to planktonic. In many areas, attempts to reverse estuarine eutrophication and anoxia have centered on restoring streams and riparian areas and reducing fertilizer use on agricultural lands. However, data from soils and historical reports and the paleoecological record suggest that to reduce the effects of modern nitrogen inputs, it may be necessary to locate and enhance denitrifying areas throughout the watershed.

Regional modeling of surface-atmosphere interactions and their impact on Great Lakes hydroclimate - Bryan, A. M.; Steiner, A. L.; Posselt, D. J. (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2015)
Keywords: land-atmosphere interactions lake feedbacks regional climate modeling Great Lakes hydroclimate 1818 Evapotranspiration 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions 3355 Regional modeling

Toxic stress in children and adolescents - Bucci, Monica; Marques, Sara Silvério; Oh, Debora; Harris, Nadine Burke (Advances in Pediatrics, 2016)

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise - Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Tebaldi, Claudia (Climatic Change, 2016)
Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections. We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions of local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. We illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.

Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes - Buchanan, Maya K.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E. (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.

Footprints of climate change in US national park visitation - Buckley, L. B.; Foushee, M. S. (International Journal of Biometeorology, 2012)
Climate change has driven many organisms to shift their seasonal timing. Are humans also shifting their weather-related behaviors such as outdoor recreation? Here we show that peak attendance in US national parks experiencing climate change has shifted 4 days earlier since 1979. Of the nine parks experiencing significant increases in mean spring temperatures, seven also exhibit shifts in the timing of peak attendance. Of the 18 parks without significant temperature changes, only 3 exhibit attendance shifts. Our analysis suggests that humans are among the organisms shifting behavior in response to climate change.
Buckley, Lauren B Foushee, Madison S Historical Article United States Int J Biometeorol. 2012 Nov;56(6):1173-7. doi: 10.1007/s00484-011-0508-4. Epub 2011 Nov 23.
Keywords: Climate Change/ history History, 20th Century History, 21st Century Humans Recreation/ history Time Factors United States

Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review - Buckley, Martha W.; Marshall, John (Reviews of Geophysics, 2016)
Keywords: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation climate variability 1620 Climate dynamics 4263 Ocean predictability and prediction 4513 Decadal ocean variability

Case study: Whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem - Buermeyer, Karl; Reinhart, Daniel; Legg, Kristin (Climate Change in Wildlands: Pioneering Approaches to Science and Management, 2016)
Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), an iconic tree species generally associated with upper subalpine ecosystems, provides an excellent case study for studying the potential impacts of climate change on a species at the landscape level and how it affects the conservation of that species. Whitebark pine is considered a keystone species in that it dominates areas where other tree species grow poorly or not at all and has broad effects on ecosystem processes. Whitebark pine canopies help regulate snowmelt, extending the length of spring runoff and reducing erosion (Tomback et al. 2001; Farnes 1990). Its large, calorie-rich seeds are a valuable food source for a variety of wildlife species, including grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis), which obtain the seeds almost exclusively by raiding red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) middens (Reinhart and Mattson 1990; Mattson, Tomback, and Reinhart 2001). Upon establishment on high-elevation slopes and other harsh sites, whitebark pine provides favorable microsites for the growth of other plant species, thus increasing ecosystem biodiversity (Keane et al. 2012).

Climate–conflict research: Some reflections on the way forward - Buhaug, Halvard (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2015)
A decade of systematic research on climate change and armed conflict has revealed a number of interesting patterns but few results that are robust across studies. This essay takes stock of the quantitative empirical literature, identifies central limitations, and presents five priorities for future research in the field. While these priorities refer to technical and operational aspects of statistical analysis, their underlying motivation, and objective, is to develop a better and more refined theoretical understanding of possible indirect and conditional connections between climatic changes and violent conflict. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:269–275. doi: 10.1002/wcc.336 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Conflict of interest: The author has declared no conflicts of interest for this article.

Three decades of multi-dimensional change in global leaf phenology - Buitenwerf, Robert; Rose, Laura; Higgins, Steven I. (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Preparing the Nation for Change: Building a Sustained National Climate Assessment - Buizer, J.; Fleming, P.; Hays, S.L.; Dow, K.; Field, C.; Gustafson, D.; Luers, A.; Moss, R.H. (National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee, 2013)

Contesting climate justice in the city: Examining politics and practice in urban climate change experiments - Bulkeley, H.; Edwards, G. A. S.; Fuller, S. (Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 2014)
Debates about climate justice have mainly occurred at the international scale, and have focussed on the rights and responsibilities of nation-states to either be protected from the effects of climate change, or to take action to reduce emissions or support adaptation. In this paper, we argue that it is both productive and necessary to examine how climate justice is being pursued at the urban scale, which brings into focus the need for attention to issues of recognition as well as rights and responsibilities. Building on work from environmental justice, which has conceptualized justice as trivalent, we propose that climate justice can be understood as a pyramid, the faces of which are distributions, procedures, rights, responsibilities and recognition. We then apply this conceptual framework to examine climate change interventions in five cities; Bangalore, Monterrey, Hong Kong, Philadelphia and Berlin. Arguing that the politics and practices of urban climate change interventions are constantly engaging with and refracting the idea of justice, we examine how justice was articulated, practiced and contested across our cases. The perspective of recognition emerges as a particularly useful entry point through which to explore the types of rights, responsibilities, distributions and procedures required to respond justly to climate change. We conclude by reflecting on our framework, arguing that it is useful both as an analytical device to interrogate climate justice and to shape the design of climate change interventions which seek to ensure climate justice.
Keywords: Urban climate change climate justice

Understanding urban vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change - Bulkeley, Harriet; Tuts, Rafael (Local Environment, 2013)

Introduction - Bullard, R.; Wright, B. (Race, Place, and Environmental Justice After Hurricane Katrina, Struggles to Reclaim, Rebuild, and Revitalize New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, 2009)

History of Pacific Northwest heat waves: Synoptic pattern and trends - Bumbaco, Karin A.; Dello, Kathie D.; Bond, Nicholas A. (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013)
A historical record of Pacific Northwest (defined here as west of the Cascade Mountains in Washington and Oregon) heat waves is identified using the U.S. Historical Climate Network, version 2, daily data (1901–2009). Both daytime and nighttime events are examined, defining a heat wave as three consecutive days above the 99th percentile for the maximum and minimum temperature anomalies separately. Although the synoptic characteristics of the daytime and nighttime heat events are similar, they do indicate some differences between the two types of events. Most notable is a stronger influence of downslope warming over the Cascade Mountains for the daytime events versus a more important role of precipitable water content for the nighttime events, presumably through its impact on downward longwave radiative fluxes. Current research suggests that the frequency and duration of heat waves are expected to increase in much of the United States, and analysis of the heat events reveals that a significant, increasing trend in the frequency of the nighttime events is already occurring in the Pacific Northwest. A heat wave occurred in 2009 that set all-time-record maximum temperatures in many locations and ranked as the second strongest daytime event and the longest nighttime event in the record.
Keywords: Synoptic climatology,Climatology,Trends,Societal impacts

Strong fisheries management and governance positively impact ecosystem status - Bundy, Alida; Chuenpagdee, Ratana; Boldt, Jennifer L.; de Fatima Borges, Maria; Camara, Mohamed Lamine; Coll, Marta; Diallo, Ibrahima; Fox, Clive; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Gazihan, Ayse; Jarre, Astrid; Jouffre, Didier; et al. (Fish and Fisheries, 2017)
Keywords: Ecological indicator ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) expert evaluation fisheries governance quality fisheries management effectiveness socioeconomic indicators

Health and climate benefits of offshore wind facilities in the Mid-Atlantic United States - Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Luckow, Patrick; Fisher, Jeremy; Kempton, Willett; Levy, Jonathan I. (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
Electricity from fossil fuels contributes substantially to both climate change and the health burden of air pollution. Renewable energy sources are capable of displacing electricity from fossil fuels, but the quantity of health and climate benefits depend on site-specific attributes that are not often included in quantitative models. Here, we link an electrical grid simulation model to an air pollution health impact assessment model and US regulatory estimates of the impacts of carbon to estimate the health and climate benefits of offshore wind facilities of different sizes in two different locations. We find that offshore wind in the Mid-Atlantic is capable of producing health and climate benefits of between $54 and $120 per MWh of generation, with the largest simulated facility (3000 MW off the coast of New Jersey) producing approximately $690 million in benefits in 2017. The variability in benefits per unit generation is a function of differences in locations (Maryland versus New Jersey), simulated years (2012 versus 2017), and facility generation capacity, given complexities of the electrical grid and differences in which power plants are offset. This work demonstrates health and climate benefits of offshore wind, provides further evidence of the utility of geographically-refined modeling frameworks, and yields quantitative insights that would allow for inclusion of both climate and public health in benefits assessments of renewable energy.

Climate influences on whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem - Buotte, Polly C.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Raffa, Kenneth F.; Logan, Jesse A. (Ecological Applications, 2016)
Keywords: climate change Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins forest disturbance Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem logistic regression Pinus albicaulis Pinus contorta var. latifolia

Climate Impacts on the Winter Tourism Economy in the United States - Burakowski, Elizabeth; Magnusson, Matthew (Natural Resources Defense Council, 2012)

Transforming barriers into enablers of action on climate change: Insights from three municipal case studies in British Columbia, Canada - Burch, S. (Global Environmental Change, 2010)

Gross-Domestic-Product-(GDP)-by-Industry Data: Value Added 1947–2016 [data files] - Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2017)

Indian entities recognized and eligible to receive services from the United States Bureau of Indian Affairs - Bureau of Indian Affairs (Federal Register, 2017)

29th Annual Report and 2000 Annual Operating Plan for Colorado River System Reservoirs - Bureau of Reclamation (U.S. Department of the Interior, 1999)

West-Wide Climate Risk Assessment: Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment - Bureau of Reclamation (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, 2013)
URL isn't full report--appendices separate files. No common web site. See right column of https://www.usbr.gov/watersmart/wcra/

Colorado River Basin Stakeholders Moving Forward to Address Challenges Identified in the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study. Phase 1 Report - Bureau of Reclamation (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Moving Forward effort, 2015)

SECURE Water Act Section 9503(c)—Reclamation Climate Change and Water 2016. Prepared for U.S. Congress - Bureau of Reclamation (Bureau of Reclamation, Policy and Administration, 2016)

West-Wide Climate Risk Assessment: Hydroclimate Projections - Bureau of Reclamation (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center, 2016)

Lake Mead Annual High and Low Elevations (1935-2017) - Bureau of Reclamation (U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 2017)

Annual operating plan for Colorado River reservoirs 2018 - Bureau of Reclamation (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2017)

National Transportation Statistics: Chapter 1; Section D - Travel and Goods Movement - Bureau of Transportation Statistics (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2017)

Freight Facts and Figures - Bureau of Transportation Statistics (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2017)

Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: Implications for management and society - Burge, Colleen A.; Eakin, C. Mark; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Froelich, Brett; Hershberger, Paul K.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Petes, Laura E.; Prager, Katherine C.; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette L.; Ford, Susan E.; Harvell, C. Drew (Annual Review of Marine Science, 2014)
Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here we review current knowledge about how the climate drives host-pathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked for other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.
Keywords: epizootics,mass mortalities,health,oceans,ocean warming

Climate change, breeding date and nestling diet: How temperature differentially affects seasonal changes in pied flycatcher diet depending on habitat variation - Burger, Claudia; Belskii, Eugen; Eeva, Tapio; Laaksonen, Toni; Mägi, Marko; Mänd, Raivo; Qvarnström, Anna; Slagsvold, Tore; Veen, Thor; Visser, Marcel E.; Wiebe, Karen L.; Wiley, Chris; et al. (Journal of Animal Ecology, 2012)
Keywords: demography Ficedula hypoleuca food web foraging glmmPQL passerines

Perceptions of severe storms, climate change, ecological structures and resiliency three years post-hurricane Sandy in New Jersey - Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael (Urban Ecosystems, 2017)
Global warming is leading to increased frequency and severity of storms that are associated with flooding, increasing the risk to urban, coastal populations. This study examined perceptions of the relationship between severe storms, sea level rise, climate change and ecological barriers by a vulnerable environmental justice population in New Jersey. Patients using New Jersey’s Federally Qualified Health Centers were interviewed after Hurricane [Superstorm] Sandy because it is essential to understand the perceptions of uninsured, underinsured, and economically challenged people to better develop a resiliency strategy for the most vulnerable people. Patients (N = 355) using 6 centers were interviewed using a structured interview form. Patients were interviewed in the order they entered the reception area, in either English or Spanish. Respondents were asked to rate their agreement with environmental statements. Respondents 1) agreed with experts that “severe storms were due to climate change”, “storms will come more often”, and that “flooding was due to sea level rise”, 2) did not agree as strongly that “climate change was due to human activity”, 3) were neutral for statements that “Sandy damages were due to loss of dunes or salt marshes”. 4) did not differ as a function of ethnic/racial categories, and 5) showed few gender differences. It is imperative that the public understand that climate change and sea level rise are occurring so that they support community programs (and funding) to prepare for increased frequency of storms and coastal flooding. The lack of high ratings for the role of dunes and marshes in preventing flooding indicates a lack of understanding that ecological structures protect coasts, and suggests a lack of support for management actions to restore dunes as part of a coastal preparedness strategy. Perceptions that do not support a public policy of coastal zone management to protect coastlines can lead to increased flooding, extensive property damages, and injuries or loss of life.

The Status of Climate Change Litigation: A Global Review - Burger, Michael; Gundlach, Justin (U.N. Environment Programme, 2017)
ISBN: 978-92-807-3656-4

Bioinvasions in a Changing World: A Resource on Invasive Species–Climate Change Interactions for Conservation and Natural Resource Management - Burgiel, Stanley W.; Hall, Thomas (National Invasive Species Information Center (NISIC), 2014)

Massachusetts Large Whale Conservation Program: Final Report: August 1, 2011–June 31, 2012 - Burke, Erin (Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries, 2012)

Reefs at Risk Revisited - Burke, L.; Reytar, L.; Spalding, M.; Perry, A. (World Resources Institute, 2011)

Adaptation to climate change: Evidence from US agriculture - Burke, Marshall; Emerick, Kyle (American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2016)

Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa - Burke, Marshall B.; Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker; Dykema, John A.; Lobell, David B. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009)
Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.

Reaching Higher Ground: Avenues to Secure and Manage New Land for Communities Displaced by Climate Change - Burkett, Maxine; Verchick, Robert R.M.; Flores, David (Center for Progressive Reform, 2017)

Coastal Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities: A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment - Burkett, V.; Davidson, M. (Island Press, 2012)

Plant-pollinator interactions over 120 years: Loss of species, co-occurrence, and function - Burkle, Laura A.; Marlin, John C.; Knight, Tiffany M. (Science, 2013)
The majority of food crops require pollination to set fruit with the honeybee providing a pollination workhorse, with both feral and managed populations an integral component of crop management (see the Perspective by Tylianakis, published online 28 February). Garibaldi et al. (p. 1608, published online 28 February) now show that wild pollinators are also a vital part of our crop systems. In more than 40 important crops grown worldwide, wild pollinators improved pollination efficiency, increasing fruit set by twice that facilitated by honeybees. Burkle et al. (p. 1611, published online 28 February) took advantage of one of the most thorough and oldest data sets available on plant-pollinator interaction networks and recollected data on plant-pollinator interactions after more than 120 years of climate change and landscape alteration. The historical data set consists of observations collected by Charles Robertson near Carlinville, Illinois (USA), in the late 1800s on the phenology of plants and their pollinating insects, as well as information about which plants and pollinators interacted with one another. Many sites were revisited in the early 1970s and in 2009 and 2010 to collect similar plant-pollinator data. Pollinator function has declined through time, with bees showing lower visitation rates and lower fidelity to individual plant species.Using historic data sets, we quantified the degree to which global change over 120 years disrupted plant-pollinator interactions in a temperate forest understory community in Illinois, USA. We found degradation of interaction network structure and function and extirpation of 50% of bee species. Network changes can be attributed to shifts in forb and bee phenologies resulting in temporal mismatches, nonrandom species extinctions, and loss of spatial co-occurrences between extant species in modified landscapes. Quantity and quality of pollination services have declined through time. The historic network showed flexibility in response to disturbance; however, our data suggest that networks will be less resilient to future changes.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/339/6127/1611.full.pdf

Exploring the climate change, migration and conflict nexus - Burrows, Kate; Kinney, Patrick L. (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2016)
The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict.
Keywords: climate change Climate Humans migration conflict Emigration and Immigration Refugees Warfare

The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems - Burrows, Michael T.; Schoeman, David S.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Moore, Pippa; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brander, Keith M.; Brown, Chris; Bruno, John F.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V.; et al. (Science, 2011)

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity - Burrows, Michael T.; Schoeman, David S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Molinos, Jorge García; Hoffmann, Ary; Buckley, Lauren B.; Moore, Pippa J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Bruno, John F.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; et al. (Nature, 2014)

Climate science strategy of the US National Marine Fisheries Service - Busch, D. Shallin; Griffis, Roger; Link, Jason; Abrams, Karen; Baker, Jason; Brainard, Russell E.; Ford, Michael; Hare, Jonathan A.; Himes-Cornell, Amber; Hollowed, Anne; Mantua, Nathan J.; McClatchie, Sam; et al. (Marine Policy, 2016)
Keywords: Adaptation Climate policy Ecosystem-based management Fisheries management Living marine resources Marine conservation

Shell condition and survival of Puget Sound pteropods are impaired by ocean acidification conditions - Busch, D. Shallin; Maher, Michael; Thibodeau, Patricia; McElhany, Paul (PLOS ONE, 2014)
We tested whether the thecosome pteropod Limacina helicina from Puget Sound, an urbanized estuary in the northwest continental US, experiences shell dissolution and altered mortality rates when exposed to the high CO2, low aragonite saturation state (Ωa) conditions that occur in Puget Sound and the northeast Pacific Ocean. Five, week-long experiments were conducted in which we incubated pteropods collected from Puget Sound in four carbon chemistry conditions: current summer surface (∼460–500 µatm CO2, Ωa≈1.59), current deep water or surface conditions during upwelling (∼760 and ∼1600–1700 µatm CO2, Ωa≈1.17 and 0.56), and future deep water or surface conditions during upwelling (∼2800–3400 µatm CO2, Ωa≈0.28). We measured shell condition using a scoring regime of five shell characteristics that capture different aspects of shell dissolution. We characterized carbon chemistry conditions in statistical analyses with Ωa, and conducted analyses considering Ωa both as a continuous dataset and as discrete treatments. Shell dissolution increased linearly as aragonite saturation state decreased. Discrete treatment comparisons indicate that shell dissolution was greater in undersaturated treatments compared to oversaturated treatments. Survival increased linearly with aragonite saturation state, though discrete treatment comparisons indicated that survival was similar in all but the lowest saturation state treatment. These results indicate that, under starvation conditions, pteropod survival may not be greatly affected by current and expected near-future aragonite saturation state in the NE Pacific, but shell dissolution may. Given that subsurface waters in Puget Sound’s main basin are undersaturated with respect to aragonite in the winter and can be undersaturated in the summer, the condition and persistence of the species in this estuary warrants further study.

Estimates of the direct effect of seawater pH on the survival rate of species groups in the California Current ecosystem - Busch, D. Shallin; McElhany, Paul (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Ocean acidification (OA) has the potential to restructure ecosystems due to variation in species sensitivity to the projected changes in ocean carbon chemistry. Ecological models can be forced with scenarios of OA to help scientists, managers, and other stakeholders understand how ecosystems might change. We present a novel methodology for developing estimates of species sensitivity to OA that are regionally specific, and applied the method to the California Current ecosystem. To do so, we built a database of all published literature on the sensitivity of temperate species to decreased pH. This database contains 393 papers on 285 species and 89 multi-species groups from temperate waters around the world. Research on urchins and oysters and on adult life stages dominates the literature. Almost a third of the temperate species studied to date occur in the California Current. However, most laboratory experiments use control pH conditions that are too high to represent average current chemistry conditions in the portion of the California Current water column where the majority of the species live. We developed estimates of sensitivity to OA for functional groups in the ecosystem, which can represent single species or taxonomically diverse groups of hundreds of species. We based these estimates on the amount of available evidence derived from published studies on species sensitivity, how well this evidence could inform species sensitivity in the California Current ecosystem, and the agreement of the available evidence for a species/species group. This approach is similar to that taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to characterize certainty when summarizing scientific findings. Most functional groups (26 of 34) responded negatively to OA conditions, but when uncertainty in sensitivity was considered, only 11 groups had relationships that were consistently negative. Thus, incorporating certainty about the sensitivity of species and functional groups to OA is an important part of developing robust scenarios for ecosystem projections.

Supply Chain Resilience Report 2016 - Business Continuity Institute (Business Continuity Institute, 2016)

"A lot of it comes from the heart": The nature and integration of ecological knowledge in tribal and nontribal forest management - Bussey, John; Davenport, Mae A.; Emery, Marla R.; Carroll, Clint (Journal of Forestry, 2016)
This article explores the generation, transmission, and nature of ecological knowledge used by tribal and nontribal natural resource management agency personnel who collectively manage a 666,542-acre forest in northern Minnesota. Using key informant interviews and an adapted grounded theory analysis, we documented the forms of knowledge participants expressed in their descriptions of the forest and forest management, including traditional and western scientific ecological knowledge. We found that study participants across agencies use multiple forms of knowledge, that this knowledge is generated and transferred in distinct ways, and that participants acknowledge several challenges and opportunities to integration of traditional and western scientific knowledge in forest management. Overall, ecological knowledge expressed by study participants revealed multiple ways of knowing the forest. Knowledge varied most distinctly in the influence of cultural identity and spiritual or metaphysical connections to the forest on knowledge generation, transmission, and content. Formalizing existing informal knowledge integration efforts with attention to power structures, institutional culture, and knowledge application is recommended. Management and Policy Implications: Forest values, beliefs, and knowledge can vary dramatically and sometimes clash among natural resource professionals involved in comanaged forests, particularly those managed by tribal and nontribal agencies. Findings from in-depth interviews with tribal and nontribal resource managers reveal both distinct and shared perspectives on a comanaged forest in northern Minnesota; most notable were the unique roles of cultural identity and spiritual or metaphysical connections in knowledge generation, transmission, and content. Resource managers interested in the integration of traditional and western scientific ecological knowledge may find success in formalizing ongoing informal activities including mutual learning or training in cross-cultural contexts, relationship building among agency and tribal leaders, cooperation in forest and cultural resource management projects, and collaborative forest planning. Still, attention to existing power structures, institutional cultural differences, and knowledge application practices will be important to these efforts.
Keywords: adaptation comanagement forest management traditional ecological knowledge western scientific ecological knowledge

Spatial and temporal patterns of range expansion of white-winged doves in the USA from 1979 to 2007 - Butcher, Jerrod A.; Collier, Bret A.; Silvy, Nova J.; Roberson, Jay A.; Mason, Corey D.; Peterson, Markus J. (Journal of Biogeography, 2014)
Keywords: Breeding Bird Survey dispersal rate introduced species invasive species North America range expansion spread white-winged doves Zenaida asiatica

Low-regrets incrementalism: Land use planning adaptation to accelerating sea level rise in Florida’s coastal communities - Butler, William H.; Deyle, Robert E.; Mutnansky, Cassidy (Journal of Planning Education and Research, 2016)
Sea level rise is one of the climate change effects most amenable to adaptation planning as the impacts are familiar and the nature of the phenomenon is unambiguous. Yet, significant uncertainties remain. Using a normative framework of adaptive management and natural hazards planning, we examine how coastal communities in Florida are planning in the face of accelerating sea level rise through analysis of planning documents and interviews with planners. We clarify that communities are taking a low-regrets incremental approach with increasingly progressive measures motivated by confidence in planning intelligence and direct experience with impacts attributable to sea level rise.
Keywords: SLR coastal SE Adaptation climate change Urban

Economic optimisation of wildfire intervention activities - Butry, David T.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Abt, Karen L.; Sutphen, Ronda (International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2010)
We describe how two important tools of wildfire management, wildfire prevention education and prescribed fire for fuels management, can be coordinated to minimise the combination of management costs and expected societal losses resulting from wildland fire. We present a long-run model that accounts for the dynamics of wildfire, the effects of fuels management on wildfire ignition risk and area burned, and the effects of wildfire prevention education on the ignition risk of human-caused, unintentional wildfires. Based on wildfire management activities in Florida from 2002 to 2007, we find that although wildfire prevention education and prescribed fire have different effects on timing and types of fires, the optimal solution is to increase both interventions. Prescribed fire affects whole landscapes and therefore reduces losses from all wildfire types (including lightning), whereas wildfire prevention education reduces only human-caused ignitions. However, prescribed fire offers a longer-term solution with little short-term flexibility. Wildfire prevention education programs, by comparison, are more flexible, both in time and space, and can respond to unexpected outbreaks, but with limited mitigation longevity. Only when used together in a coordinated effort do we find the costs and losses from unintentional wildfires are minimised.
Keywords: fire economics, hazard mitigation, wildland–urban interface, wildland fire.

An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the southeastern United States - Butterworth, Melinda K.; Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2017)

Carolinas Precipitation Patterns & Probabilities (C3P): An Atlas of Hydroclimate Extremes [web page]. Drought Indexes - C3P (Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments, 2017)

C40 Cities [web page] - C40 Cities (2017)

Climate Action in Megacities 3.0 - C40 Cities; Arup (C40 Cities-Arup Partnership, 2015)
urban climate change adaptation

State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections - Caballero, Rodrigo; Huber, Matthew (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow “Earth system” feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or “Charney” climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature.

Phylogenetic diversity promotes ecosystem stability - Cadotte, Marc W.; Dinnage, Russell; Tilman, David (Ecology, 2012)
Ecosystem stability in variable environments depends on the diversity of form and function of the constituent species. Species phenotypes and ecologies are the product of evolution, and the evolutionary history represented by co-occurring species has been shown to be an important predictor of ecosystem function. If phylogenetic distance is a surrogate for ecological differences, then greater evolutionary diversity should buffer ecosystems against environmental variation and result in greater ecosystem stability. We calculated both abundance-weighted and unweighted phylogenetic measures of plant community diversity for a long-term biodiversity–ecosystem function experiment at Cedar Creek, Minnesota, USA. We calculated a detrended measure of stability in aboveground biomass production in experimental plots and showed that phylogenetic relatedness explained variation in stability. Our results indicate that communities where species are evenly and distantly related to one another are more stable compared to communities where phylogenetic relationships are more clumped. This result could be explained by a phylogenetic sampling effect, where some lineages show greater stability in productivity compared to other lineages, and greater evolutionary distances reduce the chance of sampling only unstable groups. However, we failed to find evidence for similar stabilities among closely related species. Alternatively, we found evidence that plot biomass variance declined with increasing phylogenetic distances, and greater evolutionary distances may represent species that are ecologically different (phylogenetic complementarity). Accounting for evolutionary relationships can reveal how diversity in form and function may affect stability.

Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation - Caesar, L.; Rahmstorf, S.; Robinson, A.; Feulner, G.; Saba, V. (Nature, 2018)
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years.

Arctic Biodiversity Assessment: Status and Trends in Arctic Biodiversity - CAFF (Arctic Council, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), 2013)
ISBN: 978-9935-431-28-8

How does climate change cause extinction? - Cahill, Abigail E.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J.; Yeong Ryu, Hae; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B.; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J. (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2013)
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

Coastal wetland sustainability - Cahoon, Donald R.; Reed, Denise J.; Kolker, Alexander S.; Brinson, Mark M.; Stevenson, J.Court; Riggs, Stanley; Christian, Robert; Reyes, Enrique; Voss, Christine; Kunz, David (Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region, 2009)

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming - Cai, Wenju; Borlace, Simon; Lengaigne, Matthieu; van Rensch, Peter; Collins, Mat; Vecchi, Gabriel; Timmermann, Axel; Santoso, Agus; McPhaden, Michael J.; Wu, Lixin; England, Matthew H.; Wang, Guojian; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming - Cai, Wenju; Borlace, Simon; Lengaigne, Matthieu; van Rensch, Peter; Collins, Mat; Vecchi, Gabriel; Timmermann, Axel; Santoso, Agus; McPhaden, Michael J.; Wu, Lixin; England, Matthew H.; Wang, Guojian; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming - Cai, Wenju; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Borlace, Simon; Collins, Matthew; Cowan, Tim; McPhaden, Michael J.; Timmermann, Axel; Power, Scott; Brown, Josephine; Menkes, Christophe; Ngari, Arona; Vincent, Emmanuel M.; et al. (Nature, 2012)
The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere/'s most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western Pacific Ocean southeastward towards French Polynesia. Owing to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the position of the SPCZ causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events—such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones—experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region. The SPCZ position varies from its climatological mean location with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), moving a few degrees northward during moderate El Nino events and southward during La Nina events. During strong El Nino events, however, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing—by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the Equator—and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure with commensurately severe weather impacts. Understanding changes in the characteristics of the SPCZ in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events between the periods 1891-1990 and 1991-2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how ENSO will change. We estimate the increase in zonal SPCZ events from an aggregation of the climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. The change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial warming in the Pacific and may lead to more frequent occurrences of extreme events across the Pacific island nations most affected by zonal SPCZ events.
Keywords: drought flood extreme events ENSO Rainfall climate projections Climate science Earth sciences South Pacific Convergence Zone American Samoa Environmental science

Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming - Cai, Wenju; Wang, Guojian; Santoso, Agus; McPhaden, Michael J.; Wu, Lixin; Jin, Fei-Fei; Timmermann, Axel; Collins, Mat; Vecchi, Gabriel; Lengaigne, Matthieu; England, Matthew H.; Dommenget, Dietmar; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

Acidification of subsurface coastal waters enhanced by eutrophication - Cai, Wei-Jun; Hu, Xinping; Huang, Wei-Jen; Murrell, Michael C.; Lehrter, John C.; Lohrenz, Steven E.; Chou, Wen-Chen; Zhai, Weidong; Hollibaugh, James T.; Wang, Yongchen; Zhao, Pingsan; Guo, Xianghui; et al. (Nature Geoscience, 2011)
10.1038/ngeo1297

Assessment of simulated water balance from Noah, Noah-MP, CLM, and VIC over CONUS using the NLDAS test bed - Cai, Xitian; Yang, Zong-Liang; Xia, Youlong; Huang, Maoyi; Wei, Helin; Leung, L. Ruby; Ek, Michael B. (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2014)
Keywords: land surface model NLDAS hydrological modeling Noah-MP CLM VIC 1840 Hydrometeorology 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets 1843 Land/atmosphere interactions 1847 Modeling 3307 Boundary layer processes

Impacts of climate change on agricultural water management: A review - Cai, Ximing; Zhang, Xiao; Noël, Paul H.; Shafiee-Jood, Majid (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 2015)

Does air pollution increase the effect of aeroallergens on hospitalization for asthma? - Cakmak, Sabit; Dales, Robert E.; Coates, Frances (Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, 2012)
Ch3

California Adaptation Planning Guide - Cal EMA; CNRA (California Emergency Management Agency (Cal EMA) and California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA), 2012)

Over 129 Million Dead Trees in California Between 2010–2017 [Story map] - Cal Fire (Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire), 2018)

Guest Opinion: How Asset Level Data Can Improve the Assessment of Environmental Risk In Credit Analysis - Caldecott, Ben; Kruitwagen, Lucas (S&P Global Credit Portal, 2016)

Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication - Caldwell, Peter V.; Miniat, Chelcy F.; Elliott, Katherine J.; Swank, Wayne T.; Brantley, Steven T.; Laseter, Stephanie H. (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Keywords: climate change evapotranspiration forest hydrology mesophication streamflow water yield

Climate Change: Infrastructure Planning - California Assembly (AB 2800, 2016)

Assembly Bill No. 197 State Air Resources Board: Greenhouse gases: Regulations - California Assembly (2016)

California electrical energy generation [web site] - California Energy Commission (2018)

California Energy Commission: Tracking Progress - California Energy Commission (2018)

Impacts of extreme heat on emergency medical service calls in King County, Washington, 2007–2012: Relative risk and time series analyses of basic and advanced life support - Calkins, Miriam M.; Isaksen, Tania Busch; Stubbs, Benjamin A.; Yost, Michael G.; Fenske, Richard A. (Environmental Health, 2016)
Exposure to excessive heat kills more people than any other weather-related phenomenon, aggravates chronic diseases, and causes direct heat illness. Strong associations between extreme heat and health have been identified through increased mortality and hospitalizations and there is growing evidence demonstrating increased emergency department visits and demand for emergency medical services (EMS). The purpose of this study is to build on an existing regional assessment of mortality and hospitalizations by analyzing EMS demand associated with extreme heat, using calls as a health metric, in King County, Washington (WA), for a 6-year period.

Integrated infrastructure planning, A new approach for the new city of Damascus, Oregon - Callaway, Emily; Green, Dave; Anderson, Mark; Yap, Anita; Gaschler, Steve (Proceedings of the Water Environment Federation, 2010)
The new City of Damascus, Oregon, was included in the Portland Metropolitan Urban Growth Boundary in 2002 and incorporated in 2004. This previously rural area is faced with significant infrastructure challenges and opportunities, as they develop plans for a new urban city for the next 50 years. The city is characterized by a lack of existing urban built infrastructure, with large parcels of undeveloped land, intact ecosystems, and significant natural resources, with a population of 9,900 people in an area of10,000 acres. This setting provides an opportunity for the city to integrate and plan for the management of water resources, ecosystem services, and water infrastructure without the constraints and segregation of traditional water infrastructure solutions. The Integrated Water Resource Management Plan (IWRMP) ties together the City's current work in developing an urban land-use plan, with ecosystem services, stormwater management, and wastewater treatment/water reuse plans into a cost-effective, integrated plan for water management.
Keywords: Integrated water management ecosystem services integrated water resources reuse sustainability urban planning urban reuse

Regional adaptation defines sensitivity to future ocean acidification - Calosi, Piero; Melatunan, Sedercor; Turner, Lucy M.; Artioli, Yuri; Davidson, Robert L.; Byrne, Jonathan J.; Viant, Mark R.; Widdicombe, Stephen; Rundle, Simon D. (Nature Communications, 2017)

Near-term limits to mitigation: Challenges arising from contrary mitigation effects from indirect land-use change and sulfur emissions - Calvin, Katherine; Wise, Marshall; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; Jones, Andrew; Thomson, Allison (Energy Economics, 2014)
Keywords: Integrated Assessment Modeling Indirect land-use change emissions

The effects of meteorology on ozone in urban areas and their use in assessing ozone trends - Camalier, Louise; Cox, William; Dolwick, Pat (Atmospheric Environment, 2007)
Ch3

Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models - Camargo, Suzana J. (Journal of Climate, 2013)
Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is analyzed in 14 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The global TC activity in the historical runs is compared with observations. The simulation of TC activity in the CMIP5 models is not as good as in higher-resolution simulations. The CMIP5 global TC frequency is much lower than observed, and there is significant deficiency in the geographical patterns of TC tracks and formation. Although all of the models underestimate the global frequency of TCs, the models present a wide range of global TC frequency. The models with the highest horizontal resolution have the highest level of global TC activity, though resolution is not the only factor that determines model TC activity. A cold SST bias could potentially contribute to the low number of TCs in the models. The models show no consensus regarding the difference of TC activity in two warming scenarios [representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5] and the historical simulation. The author examined in more detail North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific TC activity in a subset of models and found no robust changes across models in TC frequency. Therefore, there is no robust signal across the CMIP5 models in global and regional TC changes in activity for future scenarios. The future changes in various large-scale environmental fields associated with TC activity were also examined globally: genesis potential index, potential intensity, vertical wind shear, and sea level pressure. The multimodel mean changes of these variables in the CMIP5 models are consistent with the changes obtained in the CMIP3 models.
Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean,North Pacific Ocean,Tropics,Hurricanes,Climate models,Model comparison

Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation Plans: A Guide for California MPOs and RTPAs - Cambridge Systematics Inc.; ESA PWA; W & S Solutions (California Department of Transportation, 2013)

Central Texas Extreme Weather and Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Transportation Infrastructure - Cambridge Systematics Inc.; ICF International (City of Austin, Office of Sustainability, 2015)

Ecosystem management and land conservation can substantially contribute to California’s climate mitigation goals - Cameron, D. Richard; Marvin, David C.; Remucal, Jonathan M.; Passero, Michelle C. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Combatting climate change will require using all available tools, especially those that contribute to other societal and economic goals, such as natural resource protection and energy security. Conserving and managing natural and agricultural lands to retain and absorb greenhouse gasses (GHGs) are tools that have not been widely integrated into climate policy. Our analysis provides a quantification of potential climate benefits from multiple land-based activities for a jurisdiction with an emissions reduction target (up to 13.3% of the cumulative reductions needed to meet the 2050 target, or nearly three-fourths of a billion metric tons of GHGs). This approach provides a model that other jurisdictions can use to evaluate emissions reductions that might be achieved from conserving and restoring natural lands.Modeling efforts focused on future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy and other sectors in California have shown varying capacities to meet the emissions reduction targets established by the state. These efforts have not included potential reductions from changes in ecosystem management, restoration, and conservation. We examine the scale of contributions from selected activities in natural and agricultural lands and assess the degree to which these actions could help the state achieve its 2030 and 2050 climate mitigation goals under alternative implementation scenarios. By 2030, an Ambitious implementation scenario could contribute as much as 147 MMTCO2e or 17.4% of the cumulative reductions needed to meet the state’s 2030 goal, greater than the individual projected contributions of four other economic sectors, including those from the industrial and agricultural sectors. On an annual basis, the Ambitious scenario could result in reductions as high as 17.9 MMTCO2e⋅y−1 or 13.4% of the state’s 2030 reduction goal. Most reductions come from changes in forest management (61% of 2050 projected cumulative reductions under the Ambitious scenario), followed by reforestation (14%), avoided conversion (11%), compost amendments to grasslands (9%), and wetland and grassland restoration (5%). Implementation of a range of land-based emissions reduction activities can materially contribute to one of the most ambitious mitigation targets globally. This study provides a flexible, dynamic framework for estimating the reductions achievable through land conservation, ecological restoration, and changes in management regimes.

Michigan Climate and Health Profile Report 2015: Building Resilience Against Climate Effects on Michigan's Health - Cameron, Lorraine; Ferguson, Aaron; Walker, Robert; Briley, Laura; Brown, Daniel (Michigan Department of Health & Human Services, 2015)

Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015 - Caminade, Cyril; Turner, Joanne; Metelmann, Soeren; Hesson, Jenny C.; Blagrove, Marcus S. C.; Solomon, Tom; Morse, Andrew P.; Baylis, Matthew (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R0 mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two key mosquito vector species: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The model was parameterized and calibrated using the most up to date information from the available literature. It was then driven by observed gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for the period 1950–2015. We find that the transmission risk in South America in 2015 was the highest since 1950. This maximum is related to favoring temperature conditions that caused the simulated biting rates to be largest and mosquito mortality rates and extrinsic incubation periods to be smallest in 2015. This event followed the suspected introduction of ZIKV in Brazil in 2013. The ZIKV outbreak in Latin America has very likely been fueled by the 2015–2016 El Niño climate phenomenon affecting the region. The highest transmission risk globally is in South America and tropical countries where Ae. aegypti is abundant. Transmission risk is strongly seasonal in temperate regions where Ae. albopictus is present, with significant risk of ZIKV transmission in the southeastern states of the United States, in southern China, and to a lesser extent, over southern Europe during the boreal summer season.

Climate change and freight-transportation infrastructure: Current challenges for adaptation - Camp, Janey; Abkowitz, Mark; Hornberger, George; Benneyworth, Laura; Banks, James C. (Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2013)
The transportation system infrastructure in the United States is vital to sustaining the nation’s economy, safety, and well-being. In its recent special report, Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation, the National Research Council concluded that climate change will have significant impacts on transportation systems, affecting design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Furthermore, the report calls for a focus on the problem now through adaptation planning to avoid costly future investments and disruptions to operations. This begins with sharing information, resources, best practices, and lessons learned across jurisdictional lines and among different stakeholders. With this in mind, a select group of stakeholders representing the freight-transportation industry and climate science participated in a summit held at Vanderbilt University in 2011, to reach consensus on the needs and challenges that must be addressed in order for successful adaptation strategies to emerge. This paper presents a brief review of the relevant literature on this topic, shares the outcomes and findings of summit deliberations, and provides recommendations for a path forward.

Potential Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Vegetation-Management Strategies in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park - Camp, Richard J.; Berkowitz, S. Paul; Brinck, Kevin; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; Fortini, Lucas B. (USGS Pacific Islands Climate Science Center, 2018)

(Bering Sea Sub-Network), Personal communication with author, March 16, 2018 - Campbell, Iver

International relocation from Pacific island countries: Adaptation failure? - Campbell, John (International Conference on Environment, Forced Migration & Social Vulnerability, 2008)

Development, global change and traditional food security in Pacific Island countries - Campbell, John (Regional Environmental Change, 2014)
While islands have been identified in numerous discourses as being highly vulnerable, food security was a cornerstone of many traditional Pacific Island societies from inland and coastal communities in large islands with considerable natural assets to those that occupied extremely small, low-lying atolls with little or no soil and limited water resources. This was sustained through agro-ecological biodiversity, the production of surpluses which enabled food preservation and storage to be practiced and underpinned networks of exchange and mutual support that were particularly important during times of hardship such as disruptive extreme natural events, the use of resilient crops and using ‘famine’ foods. Colonisation, the introduction of new religions, the spread of capitalism, most recently in the context of globalisation, has seen many of these practices decline (some have disappeared altogether) as crop diversity has been reduced (making way for export products such as copra), food storage and preservation are now rarely practised, resilient crops have been replaced, famine foods have lost their importance in the face of disaster relief, and many traditional networks have declined. Food imports have become critical, not only in the growing urban areas, but also in rural communities. The paper concludes by addressing key challenges facing Pacific Island countries in order to revitalise those traditional elements of food security in ways that are likely to find acceptance in contemporary society and enable them to adapt to the effects of climate change.

Climate Change and Migration Issues in the Pacific - Campbell, John; Warrick, Olivia (UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Pacific Office, 2014)
ISBN 978-982-91410-3-3

Future climate of the Caribbean from a regional climate model - Campbell, Jayaka D.; Taylor, Michael A.; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Watson, Rhodene A.; Whyte, Felicia S. (International Journal of Climatology, 2011)
Keywords: climate change Caribbean scenarios rainfall temperature

Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production - Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.; Smith, S. J.; Montzka, S. A.; Launois, T.; Belviso, S.; Bopp, L.; Laine, M. (Nature, 2017)

Consequences of climate change for biogeochemical cycling in forests of northeastern North America - Campbell, John L.; Rustad, Lindsey E.; Christopher, Sheila F.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Fernandez, Ivan J.; Groffman, Peter M.; Houle, Daniel; Kiekbusch, Jana; Magill, Alison H.; Mitchell, Myron J.; Ollinger, Scott V. (Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2009)
A critical component of assessing the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems involves understanding associated changes in the biogeochemical cycling of elements. Evidence from research on northeastern North American forests shows that direct effects of climate change will evoke changes in biogeochemical cycling by altering plant physiology, forest productivity, and soil physical, chemical, and biological processes. Indirect effects, largely mediated by changes in species composition, length of growing season, and hydrology, will also be important. The case study presented here uses the quantitative biogeochemical model PnET-BGC to test assumptions about the direct and indirect effects of climate change on a northern hardwood forest ecosystem. Modeling results indicate an overall increase in net primary production due to a longer growing season, an increase in NO3- leaching due to large increases in net mineralization and nitrification, and slight declines in mineral weathering due to a reduction in soil moisture. Future research should focus on uncertainties, including the effects of (1) multiple simultaneous interactions of stressors (e.g., climate change, ozone, acidic deposition); (2) long-term atmospheric CO2 enrichment on vegetation; (3) changes in forest species composition; (4) extreme climatic events and other disturbances (e.g., ice storms, fire, invasive species); and (5) feedback mechanisms that increase or decrease change. Une composante critique de l'estimation de l'impact des changements climatiques sur les écosystèmes forestiers implique la compréhension des changements associés au cycle biogéochimique des éléments. Une recherche conduite dans les forêts du nord-est de l'Amérique du Nord montre clairement que les effets directs des changements climatiques entraîneront des changements dans le cycle biogéochimique en altérant la physiologie des plantes, la productivité forestière et les processus impliqués dans la physique, la chimie et la biologie des sols. Les effets indirects engendrés surtout par des changements dans la composition en espèces, la longueur de la saison de croissance et le régime hydrique seront aussi importants. Une étude de cas est présentée ici à l'aide du modèle quantitatif biogéochimique PnET-BGC pour tester des hypothèses au sujet des effets directs et indirects des changements climatiques sur un écosystème forestier de feuillus nordiques. Les résultats des simulations permettent d'anticiper une augmentation générale de la production primaire nette causée par l'allongement de la saison de croissance, une augmentation du lessivage de NO3- due à de fortes augmentations de la minéralisation et de la nitrification nettes ainsi qu'une légère diminution de l'altération des minéraux due à une réduction de l'humidité du sol. Les recherches futures devraient être concentrées sur les incertitudes, lesquelles incluent les effets (1) des interactions multiples et simultanées des facteurs de stress (p. ex.: les changements climatiques, l'ozone, les dépôts acides), (2) de l'enrichissement à long terme en CO2 atmosphérique sur la végétation, (3) des changements de la composition en espèces forestières, (4) des événements climatiques extrêmes et des autres perturbations (p. ex.: les verglas, le feu, les espèces invasives) et (5) des mécanismes de rétroaction qui augmentent ou diminuent ces changements.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: What are the implications for public health research and policy? - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2015)
Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups.%U http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/royptb/370/1665/20130552.full.pdf

Urban rainwater harvesting systems: Research, implementation and future perspectives - Campisano, Alberto; Butler, David; Ward, Sarah; Burns, Matthew J.; Friedler, Eran; DeBusk, Kathy; Fisher-Jeffes, Lloyd N.; Ghisi, Enedir; Rahman, Ataur; Furumai, Hiroaki; Han, Mooyoung (Water Research, 2017)
Keywords: Rainwater harvesting Stormwater management Sustainable urban water systems Water conservation Water efficiency

Principles of Climate Change Adaptation for Engineers - Canadian Engineering Qualifications Board (Engineers Canada, 2014)

Effects of Minimum Winter Temperatures on Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) Mortality on Long Island, N.Y - Cancelliere, Jessica (Department of Entomology, 2015)

Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Irma (AL112017), 30 August-12 September 2017 - Cangialosi, John P.; Latto, Andrew S.; Berg, Robbie (National Hurricane Center, 2018)

Forecasted impact of climate change on infectious disease and health security in Hawaii by 2050 - Canyon, Deon V.; Speare, Rick; Burkle, Frederick M. (Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 2016)
Climate change is expected to cause extensive shifts in the epidemiology of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Scenarios on the effects of climate change typically attribute altered distribution of communicable diseases to a rise in average temperature and altered incidence of infectious diseases to weather extremes. Methods Recent evaluations of the effects of climate change on Hawaii have not explored this link. It may be expected that Hawaii’s natural geography and robust water, sanitation, and health care infrastructure renders residents less vulnerable to many threats that are the focus on smaller, lesser developed, and more vulnerable Pacific islands. In addition, Hawaii’s communicable disease surveillance and response system can act rapidly to counter increases in any disease above baseline and to redirect resources to deal with changes, particularly outbreaks due to exotic pathogens. Results The evidence base examined in this article consistently revealed very low climate sensitivity with respect to infectious and mosquito-borne diseases. Conclusions A community resilience model is recommended to increase adaptive capacity for all possible climate change impacts rather an approach that focuses specifically on communicable diseases. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:797–804)
Keywords: infectious disease medicine emergency preparedness disease outbreaks disaster planning

The Blackfeet (Siksikaitsitapi) and Climate Change: Input from Blackfeet Community Members to Inform the 4th National Climate Assessment - Caplins, L.; Paul, K. (2016)

The role of productivity in improving the environmental sustainability of ruminant production systems - Capper, Judith L.; Bauman, Dale E. (Annual Review of Animal Biosciences, 2013)
The global livestock industry is charged with providing sufficient animal source foods to supply the global population while improving the environmental sustainability of animal production. Improved productivity within dairy and beef systems has demonstrably reduced resource use and greenhouse gas emissions per unit of food over the past century through the dilution of maintenance effect. Further environmental mitigation effects have been gained through the current use of technologies and practices that enhance milk yield or growth in ruminants; however, the social acceptability of continued intensification and use of productivity-enhancing technologies is subject to debate. As the environmental impact of food production continues to be a significant issue for all stakeholders within the field, further research is needed to ensure that comparisons among foods are made based on both environmental impact and nutritive value to truly assess the sustainability of ruminant products.
Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions,dilution of maintenance,carbon footprint,animal source foods,dairy,beef

Estimating potential productivity cobenefits for crops and trees from reduced ozone with U.S. coal power plant carbon standards - Capps, Shannon L.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Fakhraei, Habibollah; Templer, Pamela H.; Craig, Kenneth J.; Milford, Jana B.; Lambert, Kathleen F. (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2016)
Keywords: ozone cobenefits crops trees climate mitigation policy analysis 0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 0402 Agricultural systems 0426 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions

California Greenhouse Gas Emissions for 2000 to 2016: Trends of Emissions and Other Indicators - CARB (California Air Resources Board (CARB), 2018)

Social and economic impacts of climate - Carleton, Tamma A.; Hsiang, Solomon M. (Science, 2016)
For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research has begun to illuminate key linkages in the coupling of these complex natural and human systems, uncovering notable effects of climate on health, agriculture, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. ADVANCESPast scholars of climate-society interactions were limited to theorizing on the basis of anecdotal evidence; advances in computing, data availability, and study design now allow researchers to draw generalizable causal inferences tying climatic events to social outcomes. This endeavor has demonstrated that a range of climate factors have substantial influence on societies and economies, both past and present, with important implications for the future.Temperature, in particular, exerts remarkable influence over human systems at many social scales; heat induces mortality, has lasting impact on fetuses and infants, and incites aggression and violence while lowering human productivity. High temperatures also damage crops, inflate electricity demand, and may trigger population movements within and across national borders. Tropical cyclones cause mortality, damage assets, and reduce economic output for long periods. Precipitation extremes harm economies and populations predominately in agriculturally dependent settings. These effects are often quantitatively substantial; for example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields roughly 48%, warming trends since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by 11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by 0.28 percentage points year−1. Much research aims to forecast impacts of future climate change, but we point out that society may also benefit from attending to ongoing impacts of climate in the present, because current climatic conditions impose economic and social burdens on populations today that rival in magnitude the projected end-of-century impacts of climate change. For instance, we calculate that current temperature climatologies slow global economic growth roughly 0.25 percentage points year−1, comparable to the additional slowing of 0.28 percentage points year−1 projected from future warming.Both current and future losses can theoretically be avoided if populations adapt to fully insulate themselves from the climate—why this has not already occurred everywhere remains a critical open question. For example, clear patterns of adaptation in health impacts and in response to tropical cyclones contrast strongly with limited adaptation in agricultural and macroeconomic responses to temperature. Although some theories suggest these various levels of adaptation ought to be economically optimal, in the sense that costs of additional adaptive actions should exactly balance the benefits of avoided climate-related losses, there is no evidence that allows us to determine how closely observed “adaptation gaps” reflect optimal investments or constrained suboptimal adaptation that should be addressed through policy. OUTLOOKRecent findings provide insight into the historical evolution of the global economy; they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we understand the consequences of future climate changes. Although climate is clearly not the only factor that affects social and economic outcomes, new quantitative measurements reveal that it is a major factor, often with first-order consequences. Research over the coming decade will seek to understand the numerous mechanisms that drive these effects, with the hope that policy may interfere with the most damaging pathways of influence. Both current and future generations will benefit from near-term investigations. “Cracking the code” on when, where, and why adaptation is or is not successful will generate major social benefits today and in the future. In addition, calculations used to design global climate change olicies require as input “damage functions” that describe how social and economic losses accrue under different climatic conditions, essential elements that now can (and should) be calibrated to real-world relationships. Designing effective, efficient, and fair policies to manage anthropogenic climate change requires that we possess a quantitative grasp of how different investments today may affect economic and social possibilities in the future.Two globes depict two possible futures for how the climate might change and how those changes are likely to affect humanity, based on recent empirical findings.Base colors are temperature change under “Business as usual” (left, RCP 8.5) and “stringent emissions mitigation” (right, RCP 2.6). Overlaid are composite satellite images of nighttime lights with rescaled intensity reflecting changes in economic productivity in each climate scenario.For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions—such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms—influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent “adaptation gaps,” current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/353/6304/aad9837.full.pdf

A Crown Adaptation Partnership (CAP) Toolbox for the Crown of the Continent - Carlson, Anne (Crown Managers Paternship, 2016)

Stormy seas, rising risks: Assessing undisclosed risk from sea level rise and storm surge at coastal US oil refineries - Carlson, Christina; Goldman, Gretchen; Dahl, Kristina (Communicating Climate-Change and Natural Hazard Risk and Cultivating Resilience: Case Studies for a Multi-disciplinary Approach, 2016)
As the world works to build resiliency to the impacts of climate change, it is increasingly important that companies, in addition to communities, consider and manage risks from such impacts to their assets and infrastructure. Discussion of climate change as a financial risk presents opportunities to engage companies and their investors on climate-related issues. Coastal oil-refining operations, in particular, face tremendous risks from the impacts of climate change, which can damage or destroy coastal energy facilities, curtail or stop production, and inundate nearby communities. Here, five oil refineries’ risk to sea level rise, and climate change-enhanced storm surge is assessed for the present day, 2030, 2050, and 2100. Risk assessments are compared against the degree to which the five companies have publicly disclosed climate-related risk to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, as recommended. Finally, suggestions are offered for better company consideration and disclosure of climate risks.

An ecological assessment of the pandemic threat of Zika virus - Carlson, Colin J.; Dougherty, Eric R.; Getz, Wayne (PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2016)
Author A combination of media attention and the declaration of a World Health Organization state of emergency have made the pandemic expansion of Zika virus a topic of great public concern. Understanding the threat North America faces from the still-expanding viral range requires an understanding of the historical range and ecology of the disease, a topic currently difficult to study due to incomplete occurrence data. We compile the most comprehensive geospatial dataset of Zika occurrences in its native range, beginning with its discovery in 1947, and build bioclimatic models that set an outer bound on where the virus is likely to persist. Our results suggest Zika is likely far more constrained than the closely-related dengue fever, on which many projections have been based. While Zika poses a serious threat in current outbreak regions and is clearly a high-priority neglected tropical disease, our models suggest that even under an extreme climate change scenario for 2050, the disease is unlikely to become cosmopolitan in most temperate regions as a vector-borne disease, a discrepant finding from the results of non-ensemble modeling methods. Despite that, sexual transmission remains a serious public health concern, and a route by which Zika could become a severe public health emergency in temperate zones, including in the United States.

American adaptation: Social factors affecting new developments to address climate change - Carlson, K.; McCormick, S. (Global Environmental Change, 2015)
Climate change and extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in the United States. The social factors that drive cities to adapt to and/or prepare for these impacts are largely unknown. Sixty-five qualitative interviews were conducted with multi-sectoral decision-makers to assess factors driving adaptation in six cities across the United States: Tucson, Arizona; Tampa, Florida; Raleigh, North Carolina; Boston, Massachusetts; Portland, Oregon; and Los Angeles, California. We find that there are three type of factors that affect adaptation: (1) swing characteristics of or events within localities that can lead toward or away from action; (2) inhibitors ways of thinking and framing climate change available to decision-makers that slow, but do not necessarily stop change; and (3) resource catalysts types of information and moral grounding that provide a rationale for change. These factors often intersect such that swing factors are only influential in cities with some political acceptance of climate change. In cities where public acceptance of climate change is slowly shifting, resource catalysts are more influential. This is the first qualitative study of climate change adaptation in American cities. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: climate change adaptation urban

A systematic review and meta-analysis of ambient temperature and diarrhoeal diseases - Carlton, Elizabeth J.; Woster, Andrew P.; DeWitt, Peter; Goldstein, Rebecca S.; Levy, Karen (International Journal of Epidemiology, 2016)
Background: Global climate change is expected to increase the risk of diarrhoeal diseases, a leading cause of childhood mortality. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of these effects and which populations bear the greatest risks. Methods: We conducted a systematic review using defined search terms across four major databases and, additionally, examined the references of 54 review articles captured by the search. We evaluated sources of heterogeneity by pathogen taxon, exposure measure, study quality, country income level and regional climate, and estimated pooled effect estimates for the subgroups identified in the heterogeneity analysis, using meta-analysis methods. Results: We identified 26 studies with 49 estimates. Pathogen taxa were a source of heterogeneity. There was a positive association between ambient temperature and all-cause diarrhoea (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03, 1.10) and bacterial diarrhoea (IRR 1.07; 95% CI 1.04, 1.10), but not viral diarrhoea (IRR 0.96; 95% CI 0.82, 1.11). These associations were observed in low-, middle- and high-income countries. Only one study of protozoan diarrhoea was identified. Conclusions: Changes in temperature due to global climate change can and may already be affecting diarrhoeal disease incidence. The vulnerability of populations may depend, in part, on local pathogen distribution. However, evidence of publication bias and the uneven geographical distribution of studies limit the precision and generalizability of the pooled estimates.

The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes - Carlton, J. Stuart; Mase, Amber S.; Knutson, Cody L.; Lemos, Maria Carmen; Haigh, Tonya; Todey, Dennis P.; Prokopy, Linda S. (Climatic Change, 2016)
The role of extreme weather events in shaping people’s climate change beliefs and adaptation attitudes has been extensively studied and discussed in academic literature, the popular press, and policy circles. In this manuscript, we contribute to the debate by using data from pre- and post-extreme event surveys to examine the effects of the 2012 Midwestern US drought on agricultural advisors’ climate change beliefs, adaptation attitudes, and risk perceptions. We found that neither climate change beliefs nor attitudes toward adaptation changed significantly as a result of the drought. Risk perceptions did change, however, with advisors becoming more concerned about risks from drought and pests and less concerned about risks related to flooding and ponding. Though increased risk perceptions were significantly associated with more favorable adaptation attitudes, the effects were not large enough to cause an overall shift to more favorable attitudes toward adaptation. The results suggest that extreme climate events might not cause significant shifts in climate beliefs, at least not immediately. Additionally, the results caution that policy designs that rely on increasing risk perceptions to motivate action on climate change may be overestimating the effects of extreme events on feeling at risk, at least in the context of buffered systems such as large commercial agriculture in the US.

Health impacts from cyanobacteria harmful algae blooms: Implications for the North American Great Lakes - Carmichael, Wayne W.; Boyer, Gregory L. (Harmful Algae, 2016)
Keywords: Harmful algal blooms Cyanobacteria Cyanotoxins Drinking/recreational water guidelines Human and animal health

Adaptive capacity and traps - Carpenter, S.R.; Brock, W.A. (Ecology and Society, 2008)

State of the world's freshwater ecosystems: Physical, chemical, and biological changes - Carpenter, Stephen R.; Stanley, Emily H.; Zanden, M. Jake Vander (Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2011)
Surface freshwaters—lakes, reservoirs, and rivers—are among the most extensively altered ecosystems on Earth. Transformations include changes in the morphology of rivers and lakes, hydrology, biogeochemistry of nutrients and toxic substances, ecosystem metabolism and the storage of carbon (C), loss of native species, expansion of invasive species, and disease emergence. Drivers are climate change, hydrologic flow modification, land-use change, chemical inputs, aquatic invasive species, and harvest. Drivers and responses interact, and their relationships must be disentangled to understand the causes and consequences of change as well as the correctives for adverse change in any given watershed. Beyond its importance in terms of drinking water, freshwater supports human well-being in many ways related to food and fiber production, hydration of other ecosystems used by humans, dilution and degradation of pollutants, and cultural values. A natural capital framework can be used to assess freshwater ecosystem services, competing uses for freshwaters, and the processes that underpin the long-term maintenance of freshwaters. Upper limits for human consumption of freshwaters have been proposed, and consumptive use may approach these limits by the mid-century.
Keywords: aquatic invasive species,climate change,ecosystem services,freshwater biogeochemistry,land-use change,natural capital

Does size matter? - Carreras, B. A.; Newman, D. E.; Dobson, Ian (Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2014)

Biotic and climatic velocity identify contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change - Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.

Climate Change and Insurance - Carroll, Christina M.; Evans, J. Randolph; Patton, Lindene Elise; Zimolzak, Joanne Lydia (American Bar Association Book Publishing, 2012)
Keywords: added by ERG

Deoxygenation of the Baltic Sea during the last century - Carstensen, Jacob; Andersen, Jesper H.; Gustafsson, Bo G.; Conley, Daniel J. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014)
Oxygen-deficient waters are expanding globally in response to warming and coastal eutrophication. Coastal ecosystems provide valuable services to humans, but these services are severely reduced with decreasing oxygen conditions. In the Baltic Sea, oxygen-deficient waters have expanded from 5,000 to over 60,000 km2 with large decadal fluctuations over the last century, reducing the potential fish yield and favoring noxious algal blooms. This increase is due to the imbalance between oxygen supply from physical processes and oxygen demand from consumption of organic material, enhanced by nutrient inputs and temperature increases. Further nutrient reductions will be necessary to restore a healthier Baltic Sea and counteract effects from warming.Deoxygenation is a global problem in coastal and open regions of the ocean, and has led to expanding areas of oxygen minimum zones and coastal hypoxia. The recent expansion of hypoxia in coastal ecosystems has been primarily attributed to global warming and enhanced nutrient input from land and atmosphere. The largest anthropogenically induced hypoxic area in the world is the Baltic Sea, where the relative importance of physical forcing versus eutrophication is still debated. We have analyzed water column oxygen and salinity profiles to reconstruct oxygen and stratification conditions over the last 115 y and compare the influence of both climate and anthropogenic forcing on hypoxia. We report a 10-fold increase of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and show that this is primarily linked to increased inputs of nutrients from land, although increased respiration from higher temperatures during the last two decades has contributed to worsening oxygen conditions. Although shifts in climate and physical circulation are important factors modulating the extent of hypoxia, further nutrient reductions in the Baltic Sea will be necessary to reduce the ecosystems impacts of deoxygenation.

Two decades of Pacific anthropogenic carbon storage and ocean acidification along Global Ocean Ship-based Hydrographic Investigations Program sections P16 and P02 - Carter, B. R.; Feely, R. A.; Mecking, S.; Cross, J. N.; Macdonald, A. M.; Siedlecki, S. A.; Talley, L. D.; Sabine, C. L.; Millero, F. J.; Swift, J. H.; Dickson, A. G.; Rodgers, K. B. (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2017)
Keywords: anthropogenic carbon P02 and P16 ocean acidification eMLR repeat hydrography decadal variability 1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 4215 Climate and interannual variability 4806 Carbon cycling 4808 Chemical tracers

Southeast - Carter, L.; Terando, A.; Dow, K.; Hiers, K.; Kunkel, K.E.; Lascurain, A.; Marcy, D.; Osland, M.; Schramm, P. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Ch. 17: Southeast and the Caribbean - Carter, Lynne M.; Jones, James W.; Berry, Leonard; Burkett, Virginia; Murley, James F.; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Schramm, Paul J.; Wear, David (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Insular Ecosystems of the Southeastern United States: A Regional Synthesis to Support Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate - Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Wolfe, William J. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2016)

Climate change, rice crops, and violence - Caruso, Raul; Petrarca, Ilaria; Ricciuti, Roberto (Journal of Peace Research, 2016)
This article contributes to the literature on the nexus between climate change and violence by focusing on Indonesia over the period 1993–2003. Rice is the staple food in Indonesia and we investigate whether its scarcity can be blamed for fueling violence. Following insights from the natural science literature, which claims that increases in minimum temperature reduce rice yields, we maintain that increases in minimum temperature reduce food availability in many provinces, which in turn raises the emergence of actual violence. We adopt an instrumental variable approach and select the instruments taking into account the rice growing calendar. Results show that an increase of the minimum temperature during the core month of the rice growing season, that is, December, determines an increase in violence stimulated by the reduction in future rice production per capita. Results are robust across a number of different functional specifications and estimation methods. From a methodological point of view, we claim that the inconclusive results obtained in this literature may be caused by an overlook of the correct bundle crop/temperature. Studies concentrating on several countries with different crops and using variations of average temperature as a measure of climate change missed the biological mechanism behind the relationship between climate change and violence.
Keywords: climate change,food availability,Indonesia,minimum temperature,paddy rice,rainfall,rice crops,routine violence

Birding in the United States: A Demographic and Economic Analysis. Addendum to the 2011 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation - Carver, Erin (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2013)

Wildland fire smoke and human health - Cascio, Wayne E. (Science of the Total Environment, 2018)
Keywords: Wildfire emissions Smoke Health effects Air pollution Particulate matter, PM

Relative sensitivity to climate change of species in northwestern North America - Case, Michael J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Tomasevic, Jorge A. (Biological Conservation, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change Sensitivity Vulnerability Pacific Northwest

Climate change in the Caribbean: The water management implications - Cashman, Adrian; Nurse, Leonard; John, Charlery (Journal of Environment & Development, 2010)
Concerns over the status of freshwater availability in the Caribbean region and in particular the eastern Caribbean states have been expressed for at least the past 30 years. There is a growing realization that availability will be vulnerable to extremes of climate behavior and increasing demand for water. Climate modeling for the Caribbean region under a range of scenarios suggests a continuation of a warming in average temperatures, a lengthening of seasonal dry periods, and increases in frequency of occurrence of drought conditions. Using information from the most recent IPCC report and regional downscaling, the authors suggest what some of the macrolevel changes in temperature and rainfall might be and the implications for water resources availability. This article evaluates the existing availability of water resources, the implications of the most recent climate change modeling for the Caribbean region, and the impact of on existing service provision strategies.
Keywords: climate change,water resources,water management,scarcity,vulnerability,social impacts

Connectivity, Complexity and Catastrophe in Large-scale Systems - Casti, John L. (International Series on Applied Systems Analysis, 1979)

Groundwater depletion during drought threatens future water security of the Colorado River Basin - Castle, Stephanie L.; Thomas, Brian F.; Reager, John T.; Rodell, Matthew; Swenson, Sean C.; Famiglietti, James S. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Keywords: Colorado River Basin drought GRACE groundwater water management groundwater depletion 1217 Time variable gravity 1884 Water supply 1829 Groundwater hydrology 1857 Reservoirs (surface) 1876 Water budgets

Epizootic shell disease in American lobsters Homarus americanus in southern New England: Past, present and future - Castro, K. M.; Cobb, J. S.; Gomez-Chiarri, M.; Tlusty, M. (Diseases of Aquatic Organisms, 2012)
The emergence of epizootic shell disease in American lobsters Homarus americanus in the southern New England area, USA, has presented many new challenges to understanding the interface between disease and fisheries management. This paper examines past knowledge of shell disease, supplements this with the new knowledge generated through a special New England Lobster Shell Disease Initiative completed in 2011, and suggests how epidemiological tools can be used to elucidate the interactions between fisheries management and disease.

Assessing real-time Zika risk in the United States - Castro, Lauren A.; Fox, Spencer J.; Chen, Xi; Liu, Kai; Bellan, Steven E.; Dimitrov, Nedialko B.; Galvani, Alison P.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel (BMC Infectious Diseases, 2017)
Confirmed local transmission of Zika Virus (ZIKV) in Texas and Florida have heightened the need for early and accurate indicators of self-sustaining transmission in high risk areas across the southern United States. Given ZIKV’s low reporting rates and the geographic variability in suitable conditions, a cluster of reported cases may reflect diverse scenarios, ranging from independent introductions to a self-sustaining local epidemic.

Paralytic shellfish poisoning — Alaska, 1993–2014 - Castrodale, Louisa ([State of Alaska] Epidemiology Bulletin, 2015)

Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events - Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Kellner, James R.; Forde, Alexander J.; Gruner, Daniel S.; Parker, John D.; Rodriguez, Wilfrid; Feller, Ilka C. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014)
Regional warming associated with climate change is linked with altered range and abundance of species and ecosystems worldwide. However, the ecological impacts of changes in the frequency of extreme events have not been as well documented, especially for coastal and marine environments. We used 28 y of satellite imagery to demonstrate that the area of mangrove forests has doubled at the northern end of their historic range on the east coast of Florida. This expansion is associated with a reduction in the frequency of “extreme” cold events (days colder than −4 °C), but uncorrelated with changes in mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and land use. Our analyses provide evidence for a threshold response, with declining frequency of severe cold winter events allowing for poleward expansion of mangroves. Future warming may result in increases in mangrove cover beyond current latitudinal limits of mangrove forests, thereby altering the structure and function of these important coastal ecosystems.

Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species’ range expansion - Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Parker, John D.; Cook-Patton, Susan C.; Feller, Ilka C.; Williams, A. Park; Kellner, James R. (Global Change Biology, 2015)
Keywords: Avicennia germinans climate change ecological thresholds freeze tolerance Laguncularia racemosa range expansion Rhizophora mangle species distribution modeling

Biological impacts of the 2013–2015 warm-water anomaly in the northeast Pacific: Winners, losers, and the future - Cavole, Leticia M.; Demko, Alyssa M.; Diner, Rachel E.; Giddings, Ashlyn; Koester, Irina; Pagniello, Camille M.L.S.; Paulsen, Mat-Linn; Ramirez-Valdez, Arturo; Schwenck, Sarah M.; Yen, Nicole K.; Zill, Michelle E.; Franks, Peter J.S. (Oceanography, 2016)

California at a crossroads: Climate change science informing policy - Cayan, Daniel; Luers, Amy; Franco, Guido; Hanemann, Michael; Croes, Bart; Vine, Edward (Climatic Change, 2008)

Scenarios of Climate Change in California: An Overview - Cayan, Dan; Luers, Amy Lynd; Hanemann, Michael; Franco, Guido; Croes, Bart (A report from: California Climate Change Center, 2006)

Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast - Cayan, D.R.; Bromirski, P.D.; Hayhoe, K.; Tyree, M.; Dettinger, M.D.; Flick, R.E. (Climatic Change, 2008)
California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience rising sea levels over the next century. During the last several decades, the upward historical trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have been approximately 20 cm/century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. In the next several decades, warming produced by climate model simulations indicates that sea level rise (SLR) could substantially exceed the rate experienced during modern human development along the California coast and estuaries. A range of future SLR is estimated from a set of climate simulations governed by lower (B1), middle–upper (A2), and higher (A1fi) GHG emission scenarios. Projecting SLR from the ocean warming in GCMs, observational evidence of SLR, and separate calculations using a simple climate model yields a range of potential sea level increases, from 11 to 72 cm, by the 2070–2099 period. The combination of predicted astronomical tides with projected weather forcing, El Niño related variability, and secular SLR, gives a series of hourly sea level projections for 2005–2100. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides, surge and waves resulting from storms, and also freshwater floods from Sierra and coastal mountain catchments. The occurrence of extreme sea levels is pronounced when these factors coincide. The frequency and magnitude of extreme events, relative to current levels, follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases.
Keywords: Earth and Environmental Science

California Climate Scenarios Assessment - Cayan, Daniel R.; Moser, Susanne; Franco, Guido; Hanemann, Michael; Jones, Myoung-Ae (Springer Atmospheric Sciences, 2013)

Sea level rise and its coastal impacts - Cazenave, Anny; Cozannet, Gonéri Le (Earth's Future, 2014)
Keywords: Ocean warming land ice melt sea level rise regional variability coastal impacts shoreline erosion 1641 Sea level change 1630 Impacts of global change 1807 Climate impacts 4217 Coastal processes 4556 Sea level: variations and mean

Public Spending on Transportation and Water Infrastructure, 1956 to 2014 - CBO (Congressional Budget Office, 2015)

Potential Increases in Hurricane Damage in the United States: Implications for the Federal Budget - CBO (Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 2016)
Keywords: added by ERG