Addressing climate change in comfort standards - Kwok, Alison G.; Rajkovich, Nicholas B. (Building and Environment, 2010)
Keywords: Climate change Mitigation Adaptation Thermal comfort Energy use

Stochastic simulation model for nonstationary time series using an autoregressive wavelet decomposition: Applications to rainfall and temperature - Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Khalil, Abedalrazq F. (Water Resources Research, 2007)
Keywords: wavelet decomposition nonstationary nonlinear time series simulation autoregressive model Everglades National Park 1872 Time series analysis 1869 Stochastic hydrology 1854 Precipitation 1840 Hydrometeorology

Poleward shifts in winter ranges of North American birds - La Sorte, Frank A.; Thompson, Frank R., III (Ecology, 2007)
Keywords: abundance Christmas Bird Count common species distribution of avifauna geographical range global climate change North America temporal turnover winter range

Factors that influence administrative appeals of proposed USDA Forest Service fuels reduction actions - Laband, David N.; González-Cabán, Armando; Hussain, Anwar (Forest Science, 2006)
Using the database developed by the General Accounting Office on proposed fuels reduction actions on federal lands in 2001 and 2002, we conduct probit regression analysis to identify factors that significantly affect the likelihood of administrative appeal. The likelihood of appeal of a proposed fuels reduction action is significantly increased by (1) the size of area affected, (2) the number of proposed activities at the site, (3) when one of the stated purposes is commodity production (timber and sawlogs), (4) when one of the stated purposes is reduction of project-generated fuels, (5) implementation involves prescribed burning or mechanical thinning, and (6) the presence of at least one species of mammal at risk of extinction in the immediate vicinity of the site. Conversely, the likelihood of appeal is significantly reduced if (7) implementation is handled by Forest Service personnel or using a service contract, and (8) the proposed action is located in a Wildland–Urban Interface area. However, we also observe persistent regional effects, with fuels reduction proposals in Region 1 (3, 6, 8) characterized by a significantly higher (lower) likelihood of appeal than proposals in the other regions.
Keywords: Forest fuels reduction Healthy Forests and Restoration Act bivariate probit with sample selection forest policy

Identifying anomalously early spring onsets in the CESM large ensemble project - Labe, Zachary; Ault, Toby; Zurita-Milla, Raul (Climate Dynamics, 2017)
Seasonal transitions from winter to spring impact a wide variety of ecological and physical systems. While the effects of early springs across North America are widely documented, changes in their frequency and likelihood under the combined influences of climate change and natural variability are poorly understood. Extremely early springs, such as March 2012, can lead to severe economical losses and agricultural damage when these are followed by hard freeze events. Here we use the new Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project and Extended Spring Indices to simulate historical and future spring onsets across the United States and in the particular the Great Lakes region. We found a marked increase in the frequency of March 2012-like springs by midcentury in addition to an overall trend towards earlier spring onsets, which nearly doubles that of observational records. However, changes in the date of last freeze do not occur at the same rate, therefore, causing a potential increase in the threat of plant tissue damage. Although large-scale climate modes, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, have previously dominated decadal to multidecadal spring onset trends, our results indicate a decreased role in natural climate variability and hence a greater forced response by the end of the century for modulating trends. Without a major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, our study suggests that years like 2012 in the US could become normal by mid-century.

Introduction and overview: Enhancing the knowledge base - Laczko, Frank; Aghazarm, Christine (Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence, 2009)

Pollen production by Pinus taeda growing in elevated atmospheric CO2 - LaDeau, S. L.; Clark, J. S. (Functional Ecology, 2006)
Keywords: carbon dioxide climate change FACE fecundity Pinus taeda pollen reproductive allocation respiratory health strobili

Higher mosquito production in low-income neighborhoods of Baltimore and Washington, DC: Understanding ecological drivers and mosquito-borne disease risk in temperate cities - LaDeau, Shannon L.; Leisnham, Paul T.; Biehler, Dawn; Bodner, Danielle (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2013)
Mosquito-vectored pathogens are responsible for devastating human diseases and are (re)emerging in many urban environments. Effective mosquito control in urban landscapes relies on improved understanding of the complex interactions between the ecological and social factors that define where mosquito populations can grow. We compared the density of mosquito habitat and pupae production across economically varying neighborhoods in two temperate U.S. cities (Baltimore, MD and Washington, DC). Seven species of mosquito larvae were recorded. The invasive Aedes albopictus was the only species found in all neighborhoods. Culex pipiens, a primary vector of West Nile virus (WNV), was most abundant in Baltimore, which also had more tire habitats. Both Culex and Aedes pupae were more likely to be sampled in neighborhoods categorized as being below median income level in each city and Aedes pupae density was also greater in container habitats found in these lower income neighborhoods. We infer that lower income residents may experience greater exposure to potential disease vectors and Baltimore residents specifically, were at greater risk of exposure to the predominant WNV vector. However, we also found that resident-reported mosquito nuisance was not correlated with our measured risk index, indicating a potentially important mismatch between motivation needed to engage participation in control efforts and the relative importance of control among neighborhoods.
ijerph-10-01505[PII] 23583963[pmid] Int J Environ Res Public Health

Blowing Dust and Dust Storms: One of Arizona's Most Underrated Weather Hazards - Lader, Glenn; Raman, Aishwarya; Davis, Jeffrey T.; Waters, Ken (NOAA National Weather Service, 2016)

Projections of twenty-first-century climate extremes for Alaska via dynamical downscaling and quantile mapping - Lader, Rick; Walsh, John E.; Bhatt, Uma S.; Bieniek, Peter A. (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2017)
Climate change is expected to alter the frequencies and intensities of at least some types of extreme events. Although Alaska is already experiencing an amplified response to climate change, studies of extreme event occurrences have lagged those for other regions. Forced migration due to coastal erosion, failing infrastructure on thawing permafrost, more severe wildfire seasons, altered ocean chemistry, and an ever-shrinking season for snow and ice are among the most devastating effects, many of which are related to extreme climate events. This study uses regional dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate projected twenty-first-century changes of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Alaska. The forcing data used for the downscaling simulations include the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim; 1981–2010), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3), historical (1976–2005), and GFDL CM3 representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5; 2006–2100). Observed trends of temperature and sea ice coverage in the Arctic are large, and the present trajectory of global emissions makes a continuation of these trends plausible. The future scenario is bias adjusted using a quantile-mapping procedure. Results indicate an asymmetric warming of climate extremes; namely, cold extremes rise fastest, and the greatest changes occur in winter. Maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation amounts are projected to increase by 53% and 50%, which is larger than the corresponding increases for the contiguous United States. When compared with the historical period, the shifts in temperature and precipitation indicate unprecedented heat and rainfall across Alaska during this century.
Keywords: Arctic,Extreme events,Climate change,Societal impacts

Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model–data differences at decadal and longer periods - Laepple, Thomas; Huybers, Peter (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014)
The variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at multidecadal and longer timescales is poorly constrained, primarily because instrumental records are short and proxy records are noisy. Through applying a new noise filtering technique to a global network of late Holocene SST proxies, we estimate SST variability between annual and millennial timescales. Filtered estimates of SST variability obtained from coral, foraminifer, and alkenone records are shown to be consistent with one another and with instrumental records in the frequency bands at which they overlap. General circulation models, however, simulate SST variability that is systematically smaller than instrumental and proxy-based estimates. Discrepancies in variability are largest at low latitudes and increase with timescale, reaching two orders of magnitude for tropical variability at millennial timescales. This result implies major deficiencies in observational estimates or model simulations, or both, and has implications for the attribution of past variations and prediction of future change.

Travelling and hunting in a changing Arctic: Assessing Inuit vulnerability to sea ice change in Igloolik, Nunavut - Laidler, G.J.; Ford, J.D.; Gough, W.A.; Ikummaq, T.; Gagnon, A.S.; Kowal, S.; Qrunnut, K.; Irngaut, C. (Climatic Change, 2009)

Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century - Laidre, Kristin L.; Stern, Harry; Kovacs, Kit M.; Lowry, Lloyd; Moore, Sue E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Ferguson, Steven H.; Wiig, Øystein; Boveng, Peter; Angliss, Robyn P.; Born, Erik W.; Litovka, Dennis; et al. (Conservation Biology, 2015)
Keywords: circumpolar assessment climate change management subsistence harvest cambio climático caza para la subsistencia evaluación circumpolar manejo

Quantifying the sensitivity of Arctic marine mammals to climate-induced habitat change - Laidre, Kristin L.; Stirling, Ian; Lowry, Lloyd F.; Wiig, Øystein; Heide-Jørgensen, Mads Peter; Ferguson, Steven H. (Ecological Applications, 2008)

Fire and tribal cultural resources - Lake, Frank K.; Long, Jonathan W. (Science Synthesis to Support Socioecological Resilience in the Sierra Nevada and Southern Cascade Range, 2014)

Food-borne disease and climate change in the United Kingdom - Lake, Iain R. (Environmental Health, 2017)
This review examined the likely impact of climate change upon food-borne disease in the UK using Campylobacter and Salmonella as example organisms. Campylobacter is an important food-borne disease and an increasing public health threat. There is a reasonable evidence base that the environment and weather play a role in its transmission to humans. However, uncertainty as to the precise mechanisms through which weather affects disease, make it difficult to assess the likely impact of climate change. There are strong positive associations between Salmonella cases and ambient temperature, and a clear understanding of the mechanisms behind this. However, because the incidence of Salmonella disease is declining in the UK, any climate change increases are likely to be small. For both Salmonella and Campylobacter the disease incidence is greatest in older adults and young children. There are many pathways through which climate change may affect food but only a few of these have been rigorously examined. This provides a high degree of uncertainty as to what the impacts of climate change will be. Food is highly controlled at the National and EU level. This provides the UK with resilience to climate change as well as potential to adapt to its consequences but it is unknown whether these are sufficient in the context of a changing climate.

Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States - Lal, P.; Alavalapati, J.R.R.; Mercer, E.D. (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2011)

Sequestering carbon and increasing productivity by conservation agriculture - Lal, Rattan (Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2015)

Soil Degradation - Lal, R.; Stewart, B. A. (Advances in Soil Science 11, 1990)

Water - Lall, U.; Johnson, T.; Colohan, P.; Aghakouchak, A.; Brown, C.; McCabe, G.; Pulwarty, R.; Sankarasubramanian, A. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change - Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid (Scientific Reports, 2016)

Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the United States - Lam, Y. F.; Fu, J. S.; Wu, S.; Mickley, L. J. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2011)
ACP

Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity - Lambin, Eric F; Meyfroidt, Patrick (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011)

The causes of land-use and land-cover change: Moving beyond the myths - Lambin, Eric F; Turner, Billie L; Geist, Helmut J; Agbola, Samuel B; Angelsen, Arild; Bruce, John W; Coomes, Oliver T; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Fischer, Günther; Folke, Carl; P.S.George; Homewood, Katherine; et al. (Global Environmental Change, 2001)

An exploration of factors affecting the long term psychological impact and deterioration of mental health in flooded households - Lamond, Jessica Elizabeth; Joseph, Rotimi D.; Proverbs, David G. (Environmental Research, 2015)
Keywords: Flood memory PTSD Anxiety Frequent flooding Flood impact Mental health Flood recovery

Life history trade-offs, the intensity of competition, and coexistence in novel and evolving communities under climate change - Lancaster, Lesley T.; Morrison, Gavin; Fitt, Robert N. (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2017)
The consequences of climate change for local biodiversity are little understood in process or mechanism, but these changes are likely to reflect both changing regional species pools and changing competitive interactions. Previous empirical work largely supports the idea that competition will intensify under climate change, promoting competitive exclusions and local extinctions, while theory and conceptual work indicate that relaxed competition may in fact buffer communities from biodiversity losses that are typically witnessed at broader spatial scales. In this review, we apply life history theory to understand the conditions under which these alternative scenarios may play out in the context of a range-shifting biota undergoing rapid evolutionary and environmental change, and at both leading-edge and trailing-edge communities. We conclude that, in general, warming temperatures are likely to reduce life history variation among competitors, intensifying competition in both established and novel communities. However, longer growing seasons, severe environmental stress and increased climatic variability associated with climate change may buffer these communities against intensified competition. The role of life history plasticity and evolution has been previously underappreciated in community ecology, but may hold the key to understanding changing species interactions and local biodiversity under changing climates.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences’.

Productive engagement with agriculture essential to monarch butterfly conservation - Landis, Douglas A. (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)

Climate change impacts on freshwater fish, coral reefs, and related ecosystem services in the United States - Lane, Diana; Jones, Russell; Mills, David; Wobus, Cameron; Ready, Richard C.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; English, Eric; Martinich, Jeremy; Shouse, Kate; Hosterman, Heather (Climatic Change, 2015)
We analyzed the potential physical and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries and coral reefs in the United States, examining a reference case and two policy scenarios that limit global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We modeled shifts in suitable habitat for three freshwater fish guilds and changes in coral reef cover for three regions. We estimated resulting economic impacts from projected changes in recreational fishing and changes in recreational use of coral reefs. In general, coldwater fisheries are projected to be replaced by less desirable fisheries over the 21st century, but these impacts are reduced under the GHG mitigation scenarios. Similarly, coral cover is projected to decline over the 21st century primarily due to multiple bleaching events, but the GHG mitigation scenarios delay these declines in Hawaii (but not in South Florida or Puerto Rico). Using a benefit-transfer approach, we estimated that global policies limiting GHG emissions would provide economic benefits in the range of $10–28 billion over the 21st century through maintaining higher values for recreational services for all freshwater fisheries and coral reefs, compared to the reference scenario. These economic values are a subset of the total economic and societal benefits associated with avoiding projected future declines in freshwater fisheries and coral reef cover due to unmitigated climate change.

Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios - Lane, Diana R.; Ready, Richard C.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W. (PLOS ONE, 2013)
The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

Health effects of coastal storms and flooding in urban areas: A review and vulnerability assessment - Lane, Kathryn; Charles-Guzman, Kizzy; Wheeler, Katherine; Abid, Zaynah; Graber, Nathan; Matte, Thomas (Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2013)

Extreme heat awareness and protective behaviors in New York City - Lane, Kathryn; Wheeler, Katherine; Charles-Guzman, Kizzy; Ahmed, Munerah; Blum, Micheline; Gregory, Katherine; Graber, Nathan; Clark, Nancy; Matte, Thomas (Journal of Urban Health, 2014)
Heat waves can be lethal and routinely prompt public warnings about the dangers of heat. With climate change, extreme heat events will become more frequent and intense. However, little is known about public awareness of heat warnings or behaviors during hot weather. Awareness of heat warnings, prevention behaviors, and air conditioning (AC) prevalence and use in New York City were assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods. A random sample telephone survey was conducted in September 2011 among 719 adults and follow-up focus groups were held in winter 2012 among seniors and potential senior caregivers. During summer 2011, 79 % of adults heard or saw a heat warning. Of the 24 % who were seniors or in fair or poor health, 34 % did not own AC or never/rarely used it on hot days. Of this subgroup, 30 % were unaware of warnings, and 49 % stay home during hot weather. Reasons for not using AC during hot weather include disliking AC (29 %), not feeling hot (19 %), and a preference for fans (18 %). Seniors in the focus groups did not perceive themselves to be at risk, and often did not identify AC as an important health protection strategy. While heat warnings are received by most New Yorkers, AC cost, risk perception problems, and a preference for staying home leave many at risk during heat waves. Improving AC access and risk communications will help better protect the most vulnerable during heat waves.

The Bureau of Reclamation’s Aging Infrastructure. CRS Report for Congress - Lane, Nic (Congressional Research Service (CRS), 2008)

Geographic expansion of Lyme disease in Michigan, 2000–2014 - Lantos, Paul M.; Tsao, Jean; Nigrovic, Lise E.; Auwaerter, Paul G.; Fowler, Vance G.; Ruffin, Felicia; Foster, Erik; Hickling, Graham (Open Forum Infectious Diseases, 2017)
Most Lyme disease cases in the Midwestern United States are reported in Minnesota and Wisconsin. In recent years, however, a widening geographic extent of Lyme disease has been noted with evidence of expansion eastwards into Michigan and neighboring states with historically low incidence rates.Methods.We collected confirmed and probable cases of Lyme disease from 2000 through 2014 from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, entering them in a geographic information system. We performed spatial focal cluster analyses to characterize Lyme disease expansion. We compared the distribution of human cases with recent Ixodes scapularis tick distribution studies.Results.Lyme disease cases in both the Upper and Lower Peninsulas of Michigan expanded more than 5-fold over the study period. Although increases were seen throughout the Upper Peninsula, the Lower Peninsula particularly expanded along the Indiana border north along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. Human cases corresponded to a simultaneous expansion in established I scapularis tick populations.Conclusions.The geographic distribution of Lyme disease cases significantly expanded in Michigan between 2000 and 2014, particularly northward along the Lake Michigan shore. If such dynamic trends continue, Michigan—and possibly neighboring areas of Indiana, Ohio, and Ontario, Canada—can expect a continued increase in Lyme disease cases.

Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Direct electric system impacts and costs - Lantz, Eric; Mai, Trieu; Wiser, Ryan H.; Krishnan, Venkat (Applied Energy, 2016)
Keywords: Wind energy Wind vision Scenario modeling Wind integration Transmission

Physiological Plant Ecology: Ecophysiology and Stress Physiology of Functional Groups - Larcher, Walter (Springer, 2003)

Climate Change Impacts: Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries - Largier, John; Cheng, Brian; Higgason, Kelley (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, 2011)

Cropland expansion outpaces agricultural and biofuel policies in the United States - Lark, Tyler J.; Salmon, J. Meghan; Gibbs, Holly K. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
Cultivation of corn and soybeans in the United States reached record high levels following the biofuels boom of the late 2000s. Debate exists about whether the expansion of these crops caused conversion of grasslands and other carbon-rich ecosystems to cropland or instead replaced other crops on existing agricultural land. We tracked crop-specific expansion pathways across the conterminous US and identified the types, amount, and locations of all land converted to and from cropland, 2008–2012. We found that crop expansion resulted in substantial transformation of the landscape, including conversion of long-term unimproved grasslands and land that had not been previously used for agriculture (cropland or pasture) dating back to at least the early 1970s. Corn was the most common crop planted directly on new land, as well as the largest indirect contributor to change through its displacement of other crops. Cropland expansion occurred most rapidly on land that is less suitable for cultivation, raising concerns about adverse environmental and economic costs of conversion. Our results reveal opportunities to increase the efficacy of current federal policy conservation measures by modifying coverage of the 2014 US Farm Bill Sodsaver provision and improving enforcement of the US Renewable Fuels Standard.

What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations - Larkin, Alice; Kuriakose, Jaise; Sharmina, Maria; Anderson, Kevin (Climate Policy, 2018)

Developing a Community of Climate‐Informed Conservation Practitioners to Protect a Priority Landscape in Illinois and Wisconsin - Larsen, Angela; Derby Lewis, Abigail; Lyandres, Olga; Chen, Tingqiao; Frank, Ken (Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments (GLISA), 2014)

Surface melt dominates Alaska glacier mass balance - Larsen, C. F.; Burgess, E.; Arendt, A. A.; O'Neel, S.; Johnson, A. J.; Kienholz, C. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: Alaska glaciers tidewater glaciers mass balance Operation IceBridge 0762 Mass balance 0720 Glaciers 0774 Dynamics 0758 Remote sensing 1218 Mass balance

Polar regions - Larsen, J. N.; Anisimov, O. A.; Constable, A.; Hollowed, A. B.; Maynard, N.; Prestrud, P.; Prowse, T. D.; Stone, J. M. R. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 2014)

Arctic Human Development Report: Regional Processes and Global Linkages - Larsen, Joan Nymand; Fondahl, Gail (Nordic Council of Ministers, 2015)

Arctic Social Indicators, ASI II: Implementation - Larsen, Joan Nymand; Schweitzer, Peter; Petrov, Andrey (Nordic Council of Ministers, 2014)

Assessing the Effect of Rising Temperatures: The Cost of Climate Change to the U.S. Power Sector - Larsen, Kate; Larsen, John; Delgado, Michael; Herndon, Whitney; Mohan, Shashank (Rhodium Group, 2017)

Taking Stock 2017: Adjusting Expectations for US Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Larsen, Kate; Larsen, John; Herndon, Whitney; Mohan, Shashank; Houser, Trevor (Rhodium Group, 2017)

Urban climate and adaptation strategies - Larsen, Larissa (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2015)

Analysis of 20th century rainfall and streamflow to characterize drought and water resources in Puerto Rico - Larsen, M.C. (Physical Geography, 2000)

Projecting Future Costs to U.S. Electric Utility Customers From Power Interruptions - Larsen, Peter H.; Boehlert, Brent; Eto, Joseph H.; Hamachi-LaCommare, Kristina; Martinich, Jeremy; Rennels, Lisa (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2017)

Estimating future costs for Alaska public infrastructure at risk from climate change - Larsen, P. H.; Goldsmith, S.; Smith, O.; Wilson, M. L.; Strzepek, K.; Chinowsky, P.; Saylor, B. (Global Environmental Change, 2008)
Keywords: forestry; permafrost

Assessing Changes in the Reliability of the U.S. Electric Power System - Larsen, Peter H.; LaCommare, Kristina H.; Eto, Joseph H.; Sweeney, James L. (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2015)

Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change - Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti, Eugenia (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Keywords: allochthonous detritus ecosystem boundaries riparian zone temperature and hydrological regimes trophic mismatches

Decision-making under uncertainty for water sustainability and urban climate change adaptation - Larson, Kelli; White, Dave; Gober, Patricia; Wutich, Amber (Sustainability, 2015)
Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the complexities, uncertainties, and decision processes for water sustainability and urban adaptation to climate change in the case study region of Phoenix, Arizona. In doing so, we integrate over a decade of research conducted by Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC). DCDC is a boundary organization that conducts research in collaboration with policy makers, with the goal of informing decision-making under uncertainty. Our results highlight: the counterintuitive, non-linear, and competing relationships in human–environment dynamics; the myriad uncertainties in climatic, scientific, political, and other domains of knowledge and practice; and, the social learning that has occurred across science and policy spheres. Finally, we reflect on how our interdisciplinary research and boundary organization has evolved over time to enhance adaptive and sustainable governance in the face of complex system dynamics.
Keywords: urban water SW climate change Adaptation

Modelling climate change impacts on spring runoff for the Rocky Mountains of Montana and Alberta II: Runoff change projections using future scenarios - Larson, Robert P.; Byrne, James M.; Johnson, Dan L.; Kienzie, Stefan W.; Letts, Matthew G. (Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 2011)

Avian relationships with wildfire at two dry forest locations with different historical fire regimes - Latif, Quresh S.; Sanderlin, Jamie S.; Saab, Victoria A.; Block, William M.; Dudley, Jonathan G. (Ecosphere, 2016)
Keywords: Arizona burn severity disturbance dry conifer forests fire regimes forest bird communities habitat management Idaho multispecies occupancy models population responses species richness wildfire

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest - Latta, Gregory; Temesgen, Hailemariam; Adams, Darius; Barrett, Tara (Forest Ecology and Management, 2010)
Keywords: Mapping climate change Mean annual increment Simultaneous autoregressive model Site class

Mapping and imputing potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests using climate variables - Latta, Gregory; Temesgen, Hailemariam; Barrett, Tara M. (Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2009)

Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models - Laufkötter, C.; Vogt, M.; Gruber, N.; Aita-Noguchi, M.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Buitenhuis, E.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J.; Hashioka, T.; Hauck, J.; Hirata, T.; et al. (Biogeosciences, 2015)

Global warming, elevational ranges and the vulnerability of tropical biota - Laurance, William F.; Carolina Useche, D.; Shoo, Luke P.; Herzog, Sebastian K.; Kessler, Michael; Escobar, Federico; Brehm, Gunnar; Axmacher, Jan C.; Chen, I. Ching; Gámez, Lucrecia Arellano; Hietz, Peter; Fiedler, Konrad; et al. (Biological Conservation, 2011)
Keywords: Africa Asia-Pacific Biodiversity Climate change Elevational range Endemism Extinction Global warming Montane areas Neotropics Thermal tolerance Tropical ecosystems

Climate change: New dimensions in disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience - Lavell, Allan; Oppenheimer, Michael; Diop, Cherif; Hess, Jeremy; Lempert, Robert; Li, Jianping; Muir-Wood, Robert; Myeong, Soojeong; Moser, Susanne; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi (Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012)

Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in CMIP5 - Lavers, David A.; Ralph, F. Martin; Waliser, Duane E.; Gershunov, Alexander; Dettinger, Michael D. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: water vapor transport CMIP5 climate change 1616 Climate variability 1627 Coupled models of the climate system 3305 Climate change and variability

Representing a new MODIS consistent land surface in the Community Land Model (CLM 3.0) - Lawrence, Peter J; Chase, Thomas N (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2007)

Predator–prey interactions in a grassland food chain vary with temperature and food quality - Laws, Angela Nardoni; Joern, Anthony (Oikos, 2013)

Dammed Indians Revisited: The Continuing History of the Pick-Sloan Plan and the Missouri River Sioux - Lawson, Michael L. (South Dakota State Historical Society, 2009)

Climatic impact of tropical lowland deforestation on nearby montane cloud forests - Lawton, R. O.; Nair, U. S.; Pielke, R. A.; Welch, R. M. (Science, 2001)
Tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) depend on predictable, frequent, and prolonged immersion in cloud. Clearing upwind lowland forest alters surface energy budgets in ways that influence dry season cloud fields and thus the TMCF environment. Landsat and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite imagery show that deforested areas of Costa Rica's Caribbean lowlands remain relatively cloud-free when forested regions have well-developed dry season cumulus cloud fields. Further, regional atmospheric simulations show that cloud base heights are higher over pasture than over tropical forest areas under reasonable dry season conditions. These results suggest that land use in tropical lowlands has serious impacts on ecosystems in adjacent mountains.

Sea change: Island communities and climate change - Lazrus, Heather (Annual Review of Anthropology, 2012)
Island communities stand to be among the first and most adversely affected by the impacts of global climate change. Rising sea levels, changing precipitation and storm patterns, and increasing air and sea-surface temperatures stress already limited island resources while climate change policies circumscribe local decision making. Anthropologists make important contributions to understanding island-based knowledge, global causes of vulnerability, local perceptions of risk, and islander agency channeled into adaptive capacity and resilience. A conceptual framework that recognizes both the complexity of the causes of island vulnerability and the constraints and opportunities available to islanders offers an analytical approach to understanding islander responses to climate change, including migration. The framework is used to show that island communities are not merely isolated, small, and impoverished but that they are often deeply globally connected in ways that reject such simple descriptions and will be essential to just and equitable climate solutions.

A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss - Le Bars, Dewi; Drijfhout, Sybren; de Vries, Hylke (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
The potential for break-up of Antarctic ice shelves by hydrofracturing and following ice cliff instability might be important for future ice dynamics. One recent study suggests that the Antarctic ice sheet could lose a lot more mass during the 21st century than previously thought. This increased mass-loss is found to strongly depend on the emission scenario and thereby on global temperature change. We investigate the impact of this new information on high-end global sea level rise projections by developing a probabilistic process-based method. It is shown that uncertainties in the projections increase when including the temperature dependence of Antarctic mass loss and the uncertainty in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. Including these new uncertainties we provide probability density functions for the high-end distribution of total global mean sea level in 2100 conditional on emission scenario. These projections provide a probabilistic context to previous extreme sea level scenarios developed for adaptation purposes.

Climate vulnerability and resilience in the most valuable North American fishery - Le Bris, Arnault; Mills, Katherine E.; Wahle, Richard A.; Chen, Yong; Alexander, Michael A.; Allyn, Andrew J.; Schuetz, Justin G.; Scott, James D.; Pershing, Andrew J. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018)
Climate change is impacting global fisheries and societies that depend on them. Identifying climate adaptation measures requires understanding how environmental changes and management policies interact in driving fishery productivity. Coincident with the recent exceptional warming of the northwest Atlantic Ocean, the American lobster has become the most valuable fishery resource in North America. Here we show that interactions between warming waters, ecosystem changes, and differences in conservation efforts led to the simultaneous collapse of lobster fishery in southern New England and record-breaking landings in the Gulf of Maine. Our results demonstrate that sound, widely adopted fishery conservation measures based on fundamental biological principles can help capitalize on gains and mitigate losses caused by global climate change.Managing natural resources in an era of increasing climate impacts requires accounting for the synergistic effects of climate, ecosystem changes, and harvesting on resource productivity. Coincident with recent exceptional warming of the northwest Atlantic Ocean and removal of large predatory fish, the American lobster has become the most valuable fishery resource in North America. Using a model that links ocean temperature, predator density, and fishing to population productivity, we show that harvester-driven conservation efforts to protect large lobsters prepared the Gulf of Maine lobster fishery to capitalize on favorable ecosystem conditions, resulting in the record-breaking landings recently observed in the region. In contrast, in the warmer southern New England region, the absence of similar conservation efforts precipitated warming-induced recruitment failure that led to the collapse of the fishery. Population projections under expected warming suggest that the American lobster fishery is vulnerable to future temperature increases, but continued efforts to preserve the stock's reproductive potential can dampen the negative impacts of warming. This study demonstrates that, even though global climate change is severely impacting marine ecosystems, widely adopted, proactive conservation measures can increase the resilience of commercial fisheries to climate change.

Modelling the effects of variation in reproductive traits on fish population resilience - Le Bris, Arnault; Pershing, Andrew J.; Hernandez, Christina M.; Mills, Katherine E.; Sherwood, Graham D. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2015)
Preserving larger fish is often advocated as a conservation measure to help fish populations buffer environmental variation and fishing pressure. The rationale is that several size- and age-dependent reproductive traits confer a higher reproductive value to larger fish. The effects of variation in these reproductive traits on the dynamics of populations under various fishing patterns are however seldom evaluated. In this study, we develop a simulation model to evaluate how variation in three reproductive traits (fecundity–mass, hatching probability, and batch spawning) impacts the capacity of a fish population to withstand and recover from high fishing pressure. Biological functions of the model were calibrated based on the Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod stock, which is currently experiencing its lowest biomass level ever estimated. Results showed that variation in the shape of the fecundity–mass relationship had the most substantial impact on population resistance and recovery. Batch spawning and variation in hatching probability had limited impacts. Furthermore, results showed that preserving larger fish by imposing a slot fishery increased the resistance of the population to high fishing pressure, because it helped preserve the population reproductive potential determined by the high fecundity of large fish. The slot fishery, however, impeded population recovery, because it distributed the fishing pressure on intermediate-size classes which potential for biomass growth is maximal. This study underlines the importance of using precise size-dependent fecundity estimates when evaluating the productivity and sustainability of fisheries, as well as the importance of identifying priority among the components of population resilience (e.g. resistance or recovery) before implementing size-selective harvest strategies.

Global carbon budget 2016 - Le Quéré, C.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Peters, G. P.; Manning, A. C.; Boden, T. A.; Tans, P. P.; Houghton, R. A.; Keeling, R. F.; Alin, S.; et al. (Earth System Science Data, 2016)

Global carbon budget 2017 - Le Quéré, C.; Andrew, R. M.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sitch, S.; Pongratz, J.; Manning, A. C.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Peters, G. P.; Canadell, J. G.; Jackson, R. B.; Boden, T. A.; Tans, P. P.; et al. (Earth System Science Data, 2018)

Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide - Le Quéré, Corinne; Raupach, Michael R.; Canadell, Josep G.; Marland, Gregg; Bopp, Laurent; Ciais, Philippe; Conway, Thomas J.; Doney, Scott C.; Feely, Richard A.; Foster, Pru; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gurney, Kevin; et al. (Nature Geoscience, 2009)

Voluntary Exposure Benefits and the Costs of Climate Change - Leard, Benjamin; Roth, Kevin (RFF Discussion Paper, 2017)

Iowa’s Forests 1999-2003 (Part A) - Leatherberry, Earl C.; Moser, W. Keith; Perry, Charles; Woodall, Christopher; Jepsen, Edward; Pennington, Steve; Flickinger, Aron. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Research Station, 2006)

Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model - Leclère, D.; Havlík, P.; Fuss, S.; Schmid, E.; Mosnier, A.; Walsh, B.; Valin, H.; Herrero, M.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M. (Environmental Research Letters, 2014)
Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.

Modeling the effects of local climate change on crop acreage - Lee, Hyunok; Sumner, Daniel A. (California Agriculture, 2016)
The impacts of climate change on agriculture depend on local conditions and crops grown. For instance, warmer winter temperatures in a given area would reduce chill hours, potentially cutting yields for some crops but extending the growing season for others. Using a century of climate data and six decades of acreage data, we established quantitative economic relationships between the evolution of local climate and acreage of 12 important crops in Yolo County. We then used the historical trend in climate change to project future crop acreages in the county. Only marginal changes in acreage in 2050 were projected for tree and vine crops there, in part because chill hours, although lower, remained above critical values. Walnuts were the most vulnerable tree crop, and the projections indicated some cultivars might be marginal in years with particularly warm winters. Processing tomato acreage might increase, due to a longer growing season, and also alfalfa acreage, if water availability and other factors remain constant.

Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets - Lee, Jung-Seok; Carabali, Mabel; Lim, Jacqueline K.; Herrera, Victor M.; Park, Il-Yeon; Villar, Luis; Farlow, Andrew (BMC Infectious Diseases, 2017)
Dengue has been prevalent in Colombia with high risk of outbreaks in various locations. While the prediction of dengue epidemics will bring significant benefits to the society, accurate forecasts have been a challenge. Given competing health demands in Colombia, it is critical to consider the effective use of the limited healthcare resources by identifying high risk areas for dengue fever.

Forage quality declines with rising temperatures, with implications for livestock production and methane emissions - Lee, M. A.; Davis, A. P.; Chagunda, M. G. G.; Manning, P. (Biogeosciences, 2017)
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Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific - Lee, Tong; McPhaden, Michael J. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2010)
Keywords: El Niño 1616 Climate variability 4231 Equatorial oceanography 4522 ENSO

Forest Products Industries’ Economic Contributions to Michigan’s Economy in 2013 - Leefers, Larry A. (Michigan Department of Natural Resources. Forest Resource Division, 2015)

Multiple stressors threaten the imperiled coastal foundation species eelgrass (Zostera marina) in Chesapeake Bay, USA - Lefcheck, Jonathan S.; Wilcox, David J.; Murphy, Rebecca R.; Marion, Scott R.; Orth, Robert J. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: climate change eutrophication global warming nutrients remote sensing seagrass

Canning River Region of Northern Alaska - Leffingwell, E., de K. (U. S. Geological Survey, 1919)

Spatial and body-size dependent response of marine pelagic communities to projected global climate change - Lefort, Stelly; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Arsouze, Thomas; Gehlen, Marion; Maury, Olivier (Global Change Biology, 2015)
Keywords: biogeochemical model body-size of organisms climate change climate scenario high trophic level model pelagic communities trophic transfer

Climate Change Adaptation by Federal Agencies: An Analysis of Plans and Issues for Congress - Leggett, Jane A. (Congressional Research Service, 2015)

Arrival and departure dates - Lehikoinen, E. S. A.; Sparks, Tim H.; Zalakevicius, Mecislovas (Advances in Ecological Research, 2004)
Keywords: Arrival Departure Bird migration Climate change Impact Temperature NAO Phenology Life history

Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation - Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Sanderson, Benjamin M. (Climatic Change, 2018)
The probability that summer temperatures in the future will exceed the hottest on record during 1920–2014 is projected to increase at all land locations with global warming. Within the BRACE project framework we investigate the sensitivity of this projected change in probability to the choice of emissions scenario using two large ensembles of simulations with the Community Earth System Model. The large ensemble size allows for a robust assessment of the probability of record-breaking temperatures. Globally, the probability that any summer during the period 2061–2081 will be warmer than the hottest on record is 80 % for RCP 8.5 and 41 % for RCP 4.5. Hence, mitigation can reduce the risk of record-breaking temperatures by 39 %. The potential for risk reduction is greatest for some of the most populated regions of the globe. In Europe, for example, a potential risk reduction of over 50 % is projected. Model biases and future changes in temperature variance have only minor effects on the results, as their contribution stays well below 10 % for almost all locations.

Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective - Lehner, Flavio; Wahl, Eugene R.; Wood, Andrew W.; Blatchford, Douglas B.; Llewellyn, Dagmar (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: runoff efficiency paleoclimate temperature climate variability streamflow Rio Grande 1616 Climate variability 1860 Streamflow 1880 Water management 3344 Paleoclimatology 9350 North America

Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries - Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Calmettes, Beatriz; Hampton, John; Nicol, Simon (Climatic Change, 2012)
IPCC-type climate models have produced simulations of the oceanic environment that can be used to drive models of upper trophic levels to explore the impact of climate change on marine resources. We use the Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics Model (SEAPODYM) to investigate the potential impact of Climate change under IPCC A2 scenario on Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis). IPCC-type models are still coarse in resolution and can produce significant anomalies, e.g., in water temperature. These limitations have direct and strong effects when modeling the dynamics of marine species. Therefore, parameter estimation experiments based on assimilation of historical fishing data are necessary to calibrate the model to these conditions before exploring the future scenarios. A new simulation based on corrected temperature fields of the A2 simulation from one climate model (IPSL-CM4) is presented. The corrected fields led to a new parameterization close to the one achieved with more realistic environment from an ocean reanalysis and satellite-derived primary production. Projected changes in skipjack population under simple fishing effort scenarios are presented. The skipjack catch and biomass is predicted to slightly increase in the Western Central Pacific Ocean until 2050 then the biomass stabilizes and starts to decrease after 2060 while the catch reaches a plateau. Both feeding and spawning habitat become progressively more favourable in the eastern Pacific Ocean and also extend to higher latitudes, while the western equatorial warm pool is predicted to become less favorable for skipjack spawning.
Keywords: climate projections Model evaluation/performance Ecosystems marine ecosystems fisheries climate scenarios ocean and marine resources

Barriers, limits and limitations to resilience - Leichenko, Robin; McDermott, Melanie; Bezborodko, Ekaterina (Journal of Extreme Events, 2015)

Climate change in suburbs: An exploration of key impacts and vulnerabilities - Leichenko, Robin M.; Solecki, William D. (Urban Climate, 2013)
Keywords: Suburbs Vulnerability Impacts New Jersey

Climate relationships to fecal bacterial densities in Maryland shellfish harvest waters - Leight, A. K.; Hood, R.; Wood, R.; Brohawn, K. (Water Research, 2016)
Keywords: Climate Fecal coliforms Sea level pressure

Impacts of climate, land use, and biological invasion on the ecology of immature Aedes mosquitoes: Implications for La Crosse emergence - Leisnham, Paul T.; Juliano, Steven A. (EcoHealth, 2012)
Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) cause many diseases worldwide and their transmission is likely to change with land use and climate changes. La Crosse virus (LACV) is historically transmitted by the native mosquito Aedes triseriatus (Say) in the upper Midwestern US, but the invasive congeners Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and A. japonicus (Theobald), which co-occur with A. triseriatus in water-holding containers, may be important accessory vectors in the Appalachian region where La Crosse encephalitis is an emerging disease. This review focuses on evidence for how climate, land use, and biological invasions may have direct abiotic and indirect community-level impacts on immature developmental stages (eggs and larvae) of Aedes mosquitoes. Because vector-borne diseases usually vary in space and time and are related to the ecology of the vector species, we propose that the ecology of its mosquito vectors, particularly at their immature stages, has played an important role in the emergence of La Crosse encephalitis in the Appalachian region and represents a model for investigating the effects of environmental changes on other vector-borne diseases. We summarize the health effects of LACV and associated socioeconomic costs that make it the most important native mosquito-borne disease in the US. We review of the transmission of LACV, and present evidence for the impacts of climate, land use, and biological invasions on Aedes mosquito communities. Finally, we discuss important questions about the ecology of LACV mosquito vectors that may improve our understanding of the impacts of environmental changes on LACV and other arboviruses.

Long-term wetland-waterfowl trends in Saskatchewan grassland - Leitch, William G.; Kaminski, Richard M. (Journal of Wildlife Management, 1985)

Linking the biological impacts of ocean acidification on oysters to changes in ecosystem services: A review - Lemasson, Anaëlle J.; Fletcher, Stephen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Knights, Antony M. (Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 2017)
Keywords: Climate change Shellfish Aquaculture Sustainability Ecosystem Approach

From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 - Lemmen, Donald S.; Warren, Fiona J.; Lacroix, Jacinthe; Bush, Elizabeth (Government of Canada, 2008)
SBN: 987-0-662-05176-3

Moving climate information off the shelf: Boundary chains and the role of RISAs as adaptive organizations - Lemos, Maria Carmen; Kirchhoff, Christine J.; Kalafatis, Scott E.; Scavia, Donald; Rood, Richard B. (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2014)
While research focusing on how boundary organizations influence the use of climate information has expanded substantially in the past few decades, there has been relatively less attention to how these organizations innovate and adapt to different environments and users. This paper investigates how one boundary organization, the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), has adapted by creating ?boundary chains? to diversify its client base while minimizing transaction costs, increasing scientific knowledge usability, and better meeting client climate information needs. In this approach, boundary organizations connect like links in a chain and together these links span the range between the production of knowledge and its use. Three main chain configurations are identified. In the key chain approach, GLISA has partnered with other organizations in a number of separate projects simultaneously, diversifying its client base without sacrificing customization. In the linked chain approach, GLISA is one of several linked boundary organizations that successively deepen the level of customization to meet particular users' needs. Finally, by partnering with multiple organizations and stakeholder groups in both configurations, GLISA may be laying the groundwork for enhancing their partners' own capacity to make climate-related decisions through a networked chain approach that facilitates cooperation among organizations and groups. Each of these approaches represents an adaptive strategy that both enhances the efficiency and effectiveness of participating boundary organizations' work and improves the provision of climate information that meets users needs.

Reducing Risks Through Adaptation Actions - Lempert, R.; Arnold, J.; Pulwarty, R.; Gordon, K.; Grieg, K.; Hawkins-Hoffman, C.; Sands, D.; Werrell, C. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Embedding (some) benefit-cost concepts into decision support processes with deep uncertainty - Lempert, Robert J. (Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2014)
Benefit-cost analysis (BCA) aims to help people make better decisions. But BCA does not always serve this role as well as intended. In particular, BCA’s aim of aggregating all attributes of concern to decision makers into a single, best-estimate metric can conflict with the differing world views and values that may be an inherent characteristic of many climate-related decisions. This paper argues that new approaches exist that can help reduce the tension between the benefits of providing useful, scientifically based information to decision makers and the costs of aggregating uncertainty and differing values into single best estimates. Enabled by new information technology, these approaches can summarize decision-relevant information in new ways. Viewed in this light, many limitations of BCA lie not in the approach itself, but with the way it is used. In particular, this paper will argue that the problem lies in a process that begins by first assigning agreed-upon values to all the relevant inputs and then using BCA to rank the desirability of alternative decision options. In contrast, BCA can be used as part of a process that begins by acknowledging a wide range of ethical and epistemological views, examines which combinations of views are most important in affecting the ranking among proposed decision options, and uses this information to identify and seek consensus on actions that are robust over a wide range of such views.
Keywords: deep uncertainty multi-attribute decision making resilient infrastructure robust decision making sea level rise

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis - Lempert, R.J.; Popper, S.W.; Bankes, S.C. (Rand Corporation, 2003)

Modeling the effects of irrigation on land surface fluxes and states over the conterminous United States: Sensitivity to input data and model parameters - Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Sacks, William J; Lei, Huimin; Leung, L Ruby (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2013)

Simulated response of conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change at different levels of fire suppression, CO2 emission rate, and growth response to CO2 - Lenihan, James M.; Bachelet, Dominique; Neilson, Ronald P.; Drapek, Raymond (Global and Planetary Change, 2008)
Keywords: climate change biogeography carbon CO2 effect fire suppression MC1 DGVM

A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century - Lenoir, J.; Gégout, J. C.; Marquet, P. A.; de Ruffray, P.; Brisse, H. (Science, 2008)
Spatial fingerprints of climate change on biotic communities are usually associated with changes in the distribution of species at their latitudinal or altitudinal extremes. By comparing the altitudinal distribution of 171 forest plant species between 1905 and 1985 and 1986 and 2005 along the entire elevation range (0 to 2600 meters above sea level) in west Europe, we show that climate warming has resulted in a significant upward shift in species optimum elevation averaging 29 meters per decade. The shift is larger for species restricted to mountain habitats and for grassy species, which are characterized by faster population turnover. Our study shows that climate change affects the spatial core of the distributional range of plant species, in addition to their distributional margins, as previously reported.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/320/5884/1768.full.pdf

Climate-related range shifts—A global multidimensional synthesis and new research directions - Lenoir, J.; Svenning, J. C. (Ecography, 2015)

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system - Lenton, Timothy M.; Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Hall, Jim W.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2008)
The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.

Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States—Approach and Methods - Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2015)

Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood - Lentz, Erika E.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Horton, Radley M.; Gesch, Dean B. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes - Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K.; Fagherazzi, Sergio (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

Ch. 23: Hawai‘i and U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands - Leong, Jo-Ann; Marra, John J.; Finucane, Melissa L.; Giambelluca, Thomas; Merrifield, Mark; Miller, Stephen E.; Polovina, Jeffrey; Shea, Eileen; Burkett, Maxine; Campbell, John; Lefale, Penehuro; Lipschultz, Fredric; et al. (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Ramps now on the "To-watch" list: Time to ramp up conservation efforts - Leopold, Susan (United Plant Savers, 2017)

Assessing the global threat from Zika virus - Lessler, Justin; Chaisson, Lelia H.; Kucirka, Lauren M.; Bi, Qifang; Grantz, Kyra; Salje, Henrik; Carcelen, Andrea C.; Ott, Cassandra T.; Sheffield, Jeanne S.; Ferguson, Neil M.; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; et al. (Science, 2016)
Zika virus was identified in Uganda in 1947; since then, it has enveloped the tropics, causing disease of varying severity. Lessler et al. review the historical literature to remind us that Zika's neurotropism was observed in mice even before clinical case reports in Nigeria in 1953. What determines the clinical manifestations; how local conditions, vectors, genetics, and wild hosts affect transmission and geographical spread; what the best control strategy is; and how to develop effective drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics are all critical questions that are begging for data.Science, this issue p. 663BACKGROUNDFirst discovered in 1947, Zika virus (ZIKV) received little attention until a surge in microcephaly cases was reported after a 2015 outbreak in Brazil. The size of the outbreak and the severity of associated birth defects prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 1 February 2016. In response, there has been an explosion in research and planning as the global health community has turned its attention to understanding and controlling ZIKV. Still, much of the information needed to evaluate the global health threat from ZIKV is lacking. The global threat posed by any emerging pathogen depends on its epidemiology, its clinical features, and our ability to implement effective control measures. Whether introductions of ZIKV result in epidemics depends on local ecology, population immunity, regional demographics, and, to no small degree, random chance. The same factors determine whether the virus will establish itself as an endemic disease. The burden of ZIKV spread on human health is mediated by its natural history and pathogenesis, particularly during pregnancy, and our ability to control the virus’s spread. In this Review, we examine the empirical evidence for a global threat from ZIKV through the lens of these processes, examining historic and current evidence, as well as parallel processes in closely related viruses.ADVANCESBecause ZIKV was not recognized as an important disease in humans until recently, it was little studied before the recent crisis. Nevertheless, the limited data from the decades following its discovery provide important clues into ZIKV’s epidemiology and suggest that some populations were at risk for the virus for years in the mid-20th century, although this risk may predominantly have been the result of spillover infections from a sylvatic reservoir. Recent outbreaks on Yap Island (2007) and in French Polynesia (2014) provide the only previous observations of large epidemics and are the basis for the little that we do know about ZIKV’s acute symptoms (e.g., rash, fever, conjunctivitis, and arthralgia), the risk of birth defects, such as microcephaly (estimated to be 1 per 100 in French Polynesia), and the incidence of severe neurological outcomes (e.g., Guillain-Barré is estimated to occur in approximately 2 out of every 10,000 cases). The observation of an association between ZIKV and a surge in microcephaly cases in Brazil and the subsequent declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO have rapidly accelerated research into the virus. Small, but very important, studies have begun to identify the substantial risk the virus can pose throughout a pregnancy, and careful surveillance has established that ZIKV can be transmitted sexually. Numerous modeling studies have helped to estimate the potential range of ZIKV and measured its reproductive number R0 (estimates range from 1.4 to 6.6), a key measure of transmissibility in a number of settings. Still, it remains unclear whether the recent epidemic in the Americas is the result of fundamental changes in the virus or merely a chance event.OUTLOOKZIKV research is progressing rapidly, and over the coming months and years our understanding of the virus will undoubtedly deepen considerably. Key questions about the virus’s range, its ability to persist, and its clinical severity will be answered as the current epidemic in the Americas runs its cou se. Moving forward, it is important that information on ZIKV be placed within the context of its effect on human health and that we remain cognizant of the structure of postinvasion epidemic dynamics as we respond to this emerging threat. The effect of ZIKV is a function of the local transmission regime and viral pathogenesis.(A) Many countries cannot maintain ongoing vector-mediated ZIKV transmission and are only at risk from importation by travelers and limited onward transmission (e.g., through sex). (B) If conditions are appropriate, importations can lead to postinvasion epidemics with high incidence across age ranges, after which the virus may go locally extinct or remain endemic. (C) There is evidence of ongoing ZIKV incidence in humans over years (e.g., a 1952 serosurvey in Nigeria), but it is unknown whether this is the result of ongoing circulation in humans or frequent spillover infections from a sylvatic cycle. (D) In other areas, ZIKV appears to have been maintained in animals with few human infections. (E) The majority of infections are asymptomatic, and severe outcomes, such as Guillain-Barré syndrome, are rare. (F) However, there is considerable risk of microcephaly and other fetal sequelae when infection occurs during pregnancy.First discovered in 1947, Zika virus (ZIKV) infection remained a little-known tropical disease until 2015, when its apparent association with a considerable increase in the incidence of microcephaly in Brazil raised alarms worldwide. There is limited information on the key factors that determine the extent of the global threat from ZIKV infection and resulting complications. Here, we review what is known about the epidemiology, natural history, and public health effects of ZIKV infection, the empirical basis for this knowledge, and the critical knowledge gaps that need to be filled.

The balancing of the sea-level budget - Leuliette, Eric W. (Current Climate Change Reports, 2015)
The last 5 years have seen continued progress in closing the sea-level budget, the accounting for the contributions of sea-level change, during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. Balancing the sea-level budget is critical to understanding recent and future climate change as well as balancing the Earth’s energy budget and water budget. During the last decade, advancements in the ocean observing system—satellite altimeters, hydrographic profiling floats, and space-based gravity missions—have allowed the sea-level budget to be assessed with unprecedented accuracy from direct, rather than inferred, estimates. In particular, several recent studies have used the sea-level budget to bound the rate of deep-ocean warming. Despite the fact that much of the observing system in place before the satellite era was not intended for global climate monitoring, new analyses of the historical record suggest that the twentieth century sea-level budget may be understood.

Contributions of Greenland and Antarctica to global and regional sea level change - Leuliette, Eric W.; Nerem, R. Steven (Oceanography, 2016)

Potential regional climate change and implications to U.S. air quality - Leung, L. Ruby; Gustafson, William I. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2005)
Regional climate change scenarios were generated by dynamical downscaling to assess the potential effects of climate change on U.S. air quality. Comparing the climate simulation for 2045–2055 based on the IPCC A1B scenario with the control simulation of 1995–2005, large atmospheric changes that could affect air quality were found in several regions. Analyses were based on changes in surface air temperature and downward solar radiation, precipitation frequency, stagnation events, and ventilation. Changes in the Midwest and Texas during summer are of opposite sign, suggesting negative impacts on air quality in Texas and small positive or no impact in the Midwest. During fall, large warming, increased solar radiation, reduced rainfall frequency, increased stagnation occurrence, and reduced ventilation in the western U.S. all suggest negative impacts on regional air quality. These changes are related to an anticyclonic pattern in the 500 hPa height change that is also found in other GCM projections.

Economic Impacts of Improving Hawaii's Food Self-sufficiency - Leung, Ping Sun; Loke, Matthew (University of Hawai‘i at Manoa, College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources, 2008)

Responses of deciduous forest trees to severe drought in Central Europe - Leuzinger, Sebastian; Zotz, Gerhard; Asshoff, Roman; Körner, Christian (Tree Physiology, 2005)
In 2003, Central Europe experienced the warmest summer on record combined with unusually low precipitation. We studied plant water relations and phenology in a 100-year- old mixed deciduous forest on a slope (no ground water table) near Basel using the Swiss Canopy Crane (SCC). The drought lasted from early June to mid September. We studied five deciduous tree species; half of the individuals were exposed to elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) (530 ppm) using a free-air, atmospheric CO2-enrichment system. In late July, after the first eight weeks of drought, mean predawn leaf water potential about 30 m above ground was −0.9 MPa across all trees, dropping to a mean of −1.5 MPa in mid-August when the top 1 m of the soil profile had no plant accessible moisture. Mean stomatal conductance and rates of maximum net photosynthesis decreased considerably in mid-August across all species. However, daily peak values of sap flow remained surprisingly constant over the whole period in Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl., and decreased to only about half of the early summer maxima in Fagus sylvatica L. and Carpinus betulus L. (stomatal down- regulation of flux). Although we detected no differences in most parameters between CO2-treated and control trees, predawn leaf water potential tended to be less negative in trees exposed to elevated [CO2]. Leaf longevity was greater in 2003 compared with the previous years, but the seasonal increase in stem basal area reached only about 75% of that in previous years. Our data suggest that the investigated tree species, particularly Q. petraea, did not experience severe water stress. However, an increased frequency of such exceptionally dry summers may have a more serious impact than a single event and would give Q. petraea a competitive advantage in the long run.
10.1093/treephys/25.6.641

Accelerated phenology of blacklegged ticks under climate warming - Levi, Taal; Keesing, Felicia; Oggenfuss, Kelly; Ostfeld, Richard S. (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2015)

World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010 - Levitus, S.; Antonov, J.I.; Boyer, T.P.; Baranova, O.K.; Garcia, H.E.; Locarnini, R.A.; Mishonov, A.V.; Reagan, J.R.; Seidov, D.; Yarosh, E.S.; Zweng, M. M. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2012)

Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems - Levitus, S.; Antonov, J.I.; Boyer, T.P.; Locarnini, R.A.; Garcia, H.E.; Mishonov, A.V. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2009)

Climate change, human rights, and social justice - Levy, Barry S.; Patz, Jonathan A. (Annals of Global Health, 2015)
Keywords: climate change human rights inequalities low-income countries public health

Climate change and collective violence - Levy, Barry S.; Sidel, Victor W.; Patz, Jonathan A. (Annual Review of Public Health, 2017)
Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and (c) by addressing underlying risk factors for collective violence, such as poverty and socioeconomic disparities.
Keywords: climate change,public health,collective violence,war,armed conflict

Untangling the impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases: A systematic review of relationships between diarrheal diseases and temperature, rainfall, flooding, and drought - Levy, Karen; Woster, Andrew P.; Goldstein, Rebecca S.; Carlton, Elizabeth J. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2016)

The “pause” in global warming: Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science - Lewandowsky, Stephan; Risbey, James S.; Oreskes, Naomi (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016)
There has been much recent published research about a putative “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. We show that there are frequent fluctuations in the rate of warming around a longer-term warming trend, and that there is no evidence that identifies the recent period as unique or particularly unusual. In confirmation, we show that the notion of a pause in warming is considered to be misleading in a blind expert test. Nonetheless, the most recent fluctuation about the longer-term trend has been regarded by many as an explanatory challenge that climate science must resolve. This departs from long-standing practice, insofar as scientists have long recognized that the climate fluctuates, that linear increases in CO2 do not produce linear trends in global warming, and that 15-yr (or shorter) periods are not diagnostic of long-term trends. We suggest that the repetition of the “warming has paused” message by contrarians was adopted by the scientific community in its problem-solving and answer-seeking role and has led to undue focus on, and mislabeling of, a recent fluctuation. We present an alternative framing that could have avoided inadvertently reinforcing a misleading claim.

The case of the wild onions: The impact of ramps on Cherokee rights - Lewis, Courtney (Southern Cultures, 2012)

Heat stress: The effects of temperature on production and reproduction traits - Lewis, Craig R. G.; Bunter, Kim L. (AGBU Pig Genetics Workshop, 2010)

Knowledge problems in climate change and security research - Lewis, Kirsty H.; Lenton, Timothy M. (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2015)

Information in the Fourth National Climate Assessment - Lewis, K.L.M.; Avery, C.W.; Reidmiller, D.R. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Harmful algal blooms along the North American west coast region: History, trends, causes, and impacts - Lewitus, Alan J.; Horner, Rita A.; Caron, David A.; Garcia-Mendoza, Ernesto; Hickey, Barbara M.; Hunter, Matthew; Huppert, Daniel D.; Kudela, Raphael M.; Langlois, Gregg W.; Largier, John L.; Lessard, Evelyn J.; RaLonde, Raymond; et al. (Harmful Algae, 2012)

High community turnover and dispersal limitation relative to rapid climate change - Lewthwaite, Jayme M. M.; Debinski, Diane M.; Kerr, Jeremy T. (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2017)
Aim Many competing hypotheses seek to identify the mechanisms behind species richness gradients. Yet, the determinants of species turnover over broad scales are uncertain. We test whether environmental dissimilarity predicts biotic turnover spatially and temporally across an array of environmental variables and spatial scales using recently observed climate changes as a pseudo‐experimental opportunity. Location Canada. Methods We used an extensive database of observation records of 282 Canadian butterfly species collected between 1900 and 2010 to characterize spatial and temporal turnover based on Jaccard indices. We compare relationships between spatial turnover and differences in an array of relevant environmental conditions, including aspects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, primary productivity and land cover. Measurements were taken within 100‐, 200‐ and 400‐km grid cells, respectively. We tested the relative importance of each variable in predicting spatial turnover using bootstrap analysis. Finally, we tested for effects of temperature and precipitation change on temporal turnover, including distinctly accounting for turnover under individual species’ potential dispersal limitations. Results Temperature differences between areas correlate with spatial turnover in butterfly assemblages, independently of distance, sampling differences or the spatial resolution of the analysis. Increasing temperatures are positively related to biotic turnover within quadrats through time. Limitations on species dispersal may cause observed biotic turnover to be lower than expected given the magnitude of temperature changes through time. Main conclusions Temperature differences can account for spatial trends in biotic dissimilarity and turnover through time in areas where climate is changing. Butterfly communities are changing quickly in some areas, probably reflecting the dispersal capacities of individual species. However, turnover is lower through time than expected in many areas, suggesting that further work is needed to understand the factors that limit dispersal across broad regions. Our results illustrate the large‐scale effects of climate change on biodiversity in areas with strong environmental gradients.

How much runoff originates as snow in the western United States, and how will that change in the future? - Li, Dongyue; Wrzesien, Melissa L.; Durand, Michael; Adam, Jennifer; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Keywords: streamflow snowmelt western U.S 0740 Snowmelt 1860 Streamflow 1807 Climate impacts

Improving the practice of economic analysis of climate change adaptation - Li, Jia; Mullan, Michael; Helgeson, Jennifer (Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2014)
The development of national and sectoral climate change adaptation strategies is burgeoning in the US and elsewhere in response to damages from extreme events and projected future risks from climate change. Increasingly, decision makers are requesting information on the economic damages of climate change as well as costs, benefits, and tradeoffs of alternative actions to inform climate adaptation decisions. This paper provides a practical view of the applications of economic analysis to aid climate change adaptation decision making, with a focus on benefit-cost analysis (BCA). We review the recent developments and applications of BCA with implications for climate risk management and adaptation decision making, both in the US and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. We found that BCA is still in early stages of development for evaluating adaptation decisions, and to date is mostly being applied to investment project-based appraisals. Moreover, the best practices of economic analysis are not fully reflected in the BCAs of climate adaptation-relevant decisions. The diversity of adaptation measures and decision-making contexts suggest that evaluation of adaptation measures may require multiple analytical methods. The economic tools and information would need to be transparent, accessible, and match with the decision contexts to be effective in enhancing decision making. Based on the current evidence, a set of analytical considerations is proposed for improving economic analysis of climate adaptation that includes the need to better address uncertainty and to understand the cross-sector and general equilibrium effects of sectoral and national adaptation policy.
Keywords: benefit-cost analysis climate change adaptation economic analysis

Deficit irrigation provokes more pronounced responses of maize photosynthesis and water productivity to elevated CO2 - Li, Xiaojie; Kang, Shaozhong; Zhang, Xiaotao; Li, Fusheng; Lu, Hongna (Agricultural Water Management, 2018)
Keywords: CO concentration Deficit irrigation Photosynthesis Growth Yield Water productivity

Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations - Li, Yan; Zhao, Maosheng; Motesharrei, Safa; Mu, Qiaozhen; Kalnay, Eugenia; Li, Shuangcheng (Nature communications, 2015)

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate–wildfire interactions - Liang, Shuang; Hurteau, Matthew D.; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: carbon climate change forest community change LANDIS-II Sierra Nevada wildfire

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity - Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.

How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change - Liang, Yu; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Serra‐Diaz, Josep M.; Thompson, Jonathan R. (Global Change Biology, 2018)
Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species' ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition‐induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community composition, but the interactions among climate change, disturbance and competitive interactions to produce range shifts are poorly understood. We used a physiologically based mechanistic landscape model to study these interactions in the northeastern United States. We designed a series of disturbance scenarios to represent varied disturbance regimes in terms of both disturbance extent and intensity. We simulated forest succession by incorporating climate change under a high‐emissions future, disturbances, seed dispersal, and competition using the landscape model parameterized with forest inventory data. Tree species range boundary shifts in the next century were quantified as the change in the location of the 5th (the trailing edge) and 95th (the leading edge) percentiles of the spatial distribution of simulated species. Simulated tree species range boundary shifts in New England over the next century were far below (usually <20 km) that required to track the velocity of temperature change (usually more than 110 km over 100 years) under a high‐emissions scenario. Simulated species` ranges shifted northward at both the leading edge (northern boundary) and trailing edge (southern boundary). Disturbances may expedite species' recruitment into new sites, but they had little effect on the velocity of simulated range boundary shifts. Range shifts at the trailing edge tended to be associated with photosynthetic capacity, competitive ability for light and seed dispersal ability, whereas shifts at the leading edge were associated only with photosynthetic capacity and competition for light. This study underscores the importance of understanding the role of interspecific competition and disturbance when studying tree range shifts.

Mitigating future avian malaria threats to Hawaiian forest birds from climate change - Liao, Wei; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis A.; Samuel, Michael D. (PLOS ONE, 2017)
Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.
Keywords: Malaria avian malaria Birds Death rates Forests Infectious disease control Mosquitoes Swine

Institutional path dependence in climate adaptation: Coman's "Some UNSETTLED PROBLEMS OF IRRIGation" - Libecap, Gary D. (American Economic Review, 2011)

Green Infrastructure on Vacant Land: Achieving Social and Environmental Benefits in Legacy Cities - Lichten, Nathaniel; Nassauer, Joan Iverson; Dewar, Margaret; Sampson, Natalie R.; Webster, Noah J. (Neighborhood, Environment, and Water research collaborations for Green Infrastructure (NEW-GI), 2016)

After Hurricane Mitch: United States Agency for International Development Reconstruction and the Stockholm Principles - Lichtenstein, Joshua (Oxfam American, 2001)

Soil carbon sequestration in a pine forest after 9 years of atmospheric CO2 enrichment - Lichter, John; Billings, Sharon A.; Ziegler, Susan E.; Gaindh, Deeya; Ryals, Rebecca; Finzi, Adrien C.; Jackson, Robert B.; Stemmler, Elizabeth A.; Schlesinger, William H. (Global Change Biology, 2008)
Keywords: acid hydrolysis carbon sequestration 13C stable isotope drought effects FACE experiment forest floor ice-storm effects loblolly pine particle-size fractions progressive nitrogen limitation soil carbon sink soil organic matter

Self-reported and FEMA flood exposure assessment after Hurricane Sandy: Association with mental health outcomes - Lieberman-Cribbin, Wil; Liu, Bian; Schneider, Samantha; Schwartz, Rebecca; Taioli, Emanuela (PLOS ONE, 2017)
Hurricane Sandy caused extensive physical and economic damage; the long-term mental health consequences are unknown. Flooding is a central component of hurricane exposure, influencing mental health through multiple pathways that unfold over months after flooding recedes. Here we assess the concordance in self-reported and Federal Emergency Management (FEMA) flood exposure after Hurricane Sandy and determine the associations between flooding and anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Self-reported flood data and mental health symptoms were obtained through validated questionnaires from New York City and Long Island residents (N = 1231) following Sandy. Self-reported flood data was compared to FEMA data obtained from the FEMA Modeling Task Force Hurricane Sandy Impact Analysis. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to determine the relationship between flooding exposure and mental health outcomes. There were significant discrepancies between self-reported and FEMA flood exposure data. Self-reported dichotomous flooding was positively associated with anxiety (ORadj: 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1–1.9]), depression (ORadj: 1.7 [1.3–2.2]), and PTSD (ORadj: 2.5 [1.8–3.4]), while self-reported continuous flooding was associated with depression (ORadj: 1.1 [1.01–1.12]) and PTSD (ORadj: 1.2 [1.1–1.2]). Models with FEMA dichotomous flooding (ORadj: 2.1 [1.5–2.8]) or FEMA continuous flooding (ORadj: 1.1 [1.1–1.2]) were only significantly associated with PTSD. Associations between mental health and flooding vary according to type of flood exposure measure utilized. Future hurricane preparedness and recovery efforts must integrate micro and macro-level flood exposures in order to accurately determine flood exposure risk during storms and realize the long-term importance of flooding on these three mental health symptoms.

The study of indigenous management practices in California: An introduction - Lightfoot, Kent G.; Lopez, Valentin (California Archaeology, 2013)

Pan-Arctic ice-wedge degradation in warming permafrost and its influence on tundra hydrology - Liljedahl, Anna K.; Boike, Julia; Daanen, Ronald P.; Fedorov, Alexander N.; Frost, Gerald V.; Grosse, Guido; Hinzman, Larry D.; Iijma, Yoshihiro; Jorgenson, Janet C.; Matveyeva, Nadya; Necsoiu, Marius; Raynolds, Martha K.; et al. (Nature Geoscience, 2016)
Ice wedges are common features of the subsurface in permafrost regions. They develop by repeated frost cracking and ice vein growth over hundreds to thousands of years. Ice-wedge formation causes the archetypal polygonal patterns seen in tundra across the Arctic landscape. Here we use field and remote sensing observations to document polygon succession due to ice-wedge degradation and trough development in ten Arctic localities over sub-decadal timescales. Initial thaw drains polygon centres and forms disconnected troughs that hold isolated ponds. Continued ice-wedge melting leads to increased trough connectivity and an overall draining of the landscape. We find that melting at the tops of ice wedges over recent decades and subsequent decimetre-scale ground subsidence is a widespread Arctic phenomenon. Although permafrost temperatures have been increasing gradually, we find that ice-wedge degradation is occurring on sub-decadal timescales. Our hydrological model simulations show that advanced ice-wedge degradation can significantly alter the water balance of lowland tundra by reducing inundation and increasing runoff, in particular due to changes in snow distribution as troughs form. We predict that ice-wedge degradation and the hydrological changes associated with the resulting differential ground subsidence will expand and amplify in rapidly warming permafrost regions.

Spatial scaling in a changing climate: A hierarchical Bayesian model for non-stationary multi-site annual maximum and monthly streamflow - Lima, Carlos H. R.; Lall, Upmanu (Journal of Hydrology, 2010)
Keywords: Hierarchical Bayesian models Drainage area scaling Regionalization Streamflow spatial scaling Flood frequency analysis Flood flow regionalization

Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming - Lima, Fernando P.; Wethey, David S. (Nature Communications, 2012)

Strategies for preventing heat stress in poultry - Lin, H.; Jiao, H. C.; Buyse, J.; Decuypere, E. (World's Poultry Science Journal, 2007)
Their higher production performance and feed conversion efficiency make today's chickens more susceptible to heat stress than ever before. The increasing proportion of poultry production in tropical and subtropical regions makes it necessary to reconsider the long-term selection strategy of today's commercial breeding programmes. Also, the importance of the potential use of Naked neck and Frizzle genes is accentuated. Nutritional strategies aimed to alleviate the negative effects of heat stress by maintaining feed intake, electrolytic and water balance or by supplementing micronutrients such as Vitamins and minerals to satisfy the special needs during heat stress have been proven advantageous. To enhance the birds' thermotolerance by early heat conditioning or feed restriction seems to be one of the most promising management methods in enhancing the heat resistance of broiler chickens in the short run.
Keywords: heat stress heat tolerance naked neck gene major gene Vitamin electrolyte feeding environment

US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: Quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate - Lin, M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Payton, R.; Fiore, A. M.; Tonnesen, G. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2017)
ACP

Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change - Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.; Oppenheimer, M.; Vanmarcke, E. (Nature Climate Change, 2012)

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100 - Lin, Ning; Kopp, Robert E.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.

Health impact in New York City during the Northeastern blackout of 2003 - Lin, S.; Fletcher, B. A.; Luo, M.; Chinery, R.; Hwang, S-. A. (Public Health Reports, 2011)
OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the health effects of the 2003 Northeastern blackout, the largest one in history, on mortality and hospital admissions due to respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal diseases in New York City (NYC), and compared the disease patterns and sociodemographic profiles of cases during the blackout with those on control days. METHOD: We investigated the effects of the blackout on health using incidence rate ratios to compare the disease on blackout days (August 14 and 15, 2003) with those on normal and comparably hot days (controls). Normal days were defined as summer days (June-August) between the 25th and 75th percentiles of maximum temperature during 1991-2004. Comparably hot days were days with maximum temperatures in the same range as that of the blackout days. We evaluated the interactive effects of demographics and the blackout using a case-only design. RESULTS: We found that mortality and respiratory hospital admissions in NYC increased significantly (two- to eightfold) during the blackout, but cardiovascular and renal hospitalizations did not. The most striking increases occurred among elderly, female, and chronic bronchitis admissions. We identified stronger effects during the blackout than on comparably hot days. In contrast to the pattern observed for comparably hot days, higher socioeconomic status groups were more likely to be hospitalized during the blackout. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that power outages may have important health impacts, even stronger than the effects of heat alone. The findings provide some direction for future emergency planning and public health preparedness.
Keywords: Climate Disaster Planning *Electricity Female Hospitalization/*statistics & numerical data Humans Male New York City/epidemiology Poisson Distribution Respiratory Tract Diseases/*epidemiology Risk Factors Seasons Socioeconomic Factors

Temperature dependence of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) recruitment in the California Current Ecosystem revisited and revised - Lindegren, Martin; Checkley, David M. (Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2012)

Improving the built environment in urban areas to control Aedes aegypti-borne diseases - Lindsay, Steve W.; Wilson, Anne; Golding, Nick; Scott, Thomas W.; Takken, Willem (Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2017)

Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management Policy and Road Map - Link, J. (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, 2016)

NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy - Link, Jason S.; Griffis, Roger; Busch, Shallin (NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-F/SPO-155, 2015)

Guidelines for incorporating fish distribution shifts into a fisheries management context - Link, Jason S.; Nye, Janet A.; Hare, Jonathan A. (Fish and Fisheries, 2011)
Keywords: Climate change decision trees distribution extended stock assessment models shifting fisheries spatially explicit models

Keeping humans in the ecosystem - Link, Jason S.; Thébaud, Olivier; Smith, David C.; Smith, Anthony D. M.; Schmidt, Jörn; Rice, Jake; Poos, Jan Jaap; Pita, Cristina; Lipton, Doug; Kraan, Marloes; Frusher, Stewart; Doyen, Luc; et al. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2017)
The World Ocean presents many opportunities, with the blue economy projected to at least double in the next two decades. However, capitalizing on these opportunities presents significant challenges and a multi-sectoral, integrated approach to managing marine socio-ecological systems will be required to achieve the full benefits projected for the blue economy. Integrated ecosystem assessments have been identified as the best means of delivering the information upon which marine resource management decisions can be made. By their nature, these assessments are inter-disciplinary, but to date have mostly focused on the natural sciences. Inclusion of human dimensions into integrated ecosystem assessments has been lagging, but is fundamental. Here we report on a Symposium, and the articles emmanating from it that are included in this Theme Set, that address how to more effectively include human dimensions into integrated ecosystem assessments. We provide an introduction to each of the main symposium topics (governance, scenarios, indicators, participatory processes, and case studies), highlight the works that emerged from the symposium, and identify key areas in which more work is required. There is still a long way to go before we see end-to-end integrated ecosystem assessments inclusive of all the major current and potential ocean use sectors that also encompass multiple aspects of human dimensions. Nonetheless, it is also clear that progress is being made and we are developing tools and approaches, including the human dimension, that can inform management and position us to take advantage of the multi-sectoral opportunities of sustainable blue growth.

Rainfall variability and violence in rural Kenya: Investigating the effects of drought and the role of local institutions with survey data - Linke, Andrew M.; O’Loughlin, John; McCabe, J. Terrence; Tir, Jaroslav; Witmer, Frank D. W. (Global Environmental Change, 2015)
Keywords: Environmental change Drought Conflict Kenya Dispute settlement Institutions

Climate teleconnections, weather extremes, and vector-borne disease outbreaks - Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Anyamba, Assaf; Britch, Seth C.; Small, Jennifer L.; Tucker, Compton J. (Global Health Impacts of Vector-Borne Diseases: Workshop Summary, 2016)

Climate-smart agriculture for food security - Lipper, Leslie; Thornton, Philip; Campbell, Bruce M.; Baedeker, Tobias; Braimoh, Ademola; Bwalya, Martin; Caron, Patrick; Cattaneo, Andrea; Garrity, Dennis; Henry, Kevin; Hottle, Ryan; Jackson, Louise; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity - Lipton, D.; Rubenstein, M.; Weiskopf, S.R.; Carter, S.; Peterson, J.; Crozier, L.; Fogarty, M.; Gaichas, S.; Hyde, K.J.W.; Morelli, T.L.; Morisette, J.; Moustahfid, H.; et al. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Current status and future prospects for the assessment of marine and coastal ecosystem services: A systematic review - Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Drakou, Evangelia G.; Gurney, Leigh; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Charef, Aymen; Egoh, Benis (PLOS ONE, 2013)
Background Research on ecosystem services has grown exponentially during the last decade. Most of the studies have focused on assessing and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services highlighting a knowledge gap on marine and coastal ecosystem services (MCES) and an urgent need to assess them. Methodology/Principal Findings We reviewed and summarized existing scientific literature related to MCES with the aim of extracting and classifying indicators used to assess and map them. We found 145 papers that specifically assessed marine and coastal ecosystem services from which we extracted 476 indicators. Food provision, in particular fisheries, was the most extensively analyzed MCES while water purification and coastal protection were the most frequently studied regulating and maintenance services. Also recreation and tourism under the cultural services was relatively well assessed. We highlight knowledge gaps regarding the availability of indicators that measure the capacity, flow or benefit derived from each ecosystem service. The majority of the case studies was found in mangroves and coastal wetlands and was mainly concentrated in Europe and North America. Our systematic review highlighted the need of an improved ecosystem service classification for marine and coastal systems, which is herein proposed with definitions and links to previous classifications. Conclusions/Significance This review summarizes the state of available information related to ecosystem services associated with marine and coastal ecosystems. The cataloging of MCES indicators and the integrated classification of MCES provided in this paper establish a background that can facilitate the planning and integration of future assessments. The final goal is to establish a consistent structure and populate it with information able to support the implementation of biodiversity conservation policies.

Historic and future extent of wildfires in the Southern Rockies ecoregion, USA - Litschert, S.E.; Brown, T.C.; Theobald, D.M. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2012)

Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003 - Littell, J.S.; McKenzie, D.; Peterson, D.L.; Westerling, A.L. (Ecological Applications, 2009)

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States - Littell, Jeremy S.; Peterson, David L.; Riley, Karin L.; Liu, Yongquiang; Luce, Charles H. (Global Change Biology, 2016)
Keywords: climate change climate variability drought ecological drought fire water balance

Uncertainty in twenty-first-century CMIP5 sea level projections - Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan (Journal of Climate, 2015)
The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.
Keywords: Sea level,Regression analysis,Climate prediction,Climate models,Risk assessment,Societal impacts

Controlling cascading failure: Understanding the vulnerabilities of interconnected infrastructures - Little, Richard G. (Journal of Urban Technology, 2002)

Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods - Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Population vulnerability to storm surge flooding in coastal Virginia, USA - Liu, Hua; Behr, Joshua G.; Diaz, Rafael (Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 2016)
Keywords: Population vulnerability Storm surge flooding Built-up conditions Health fragility

Particulate air pollution from wildfires in the Western US under climate change - Liu, Jia Coco; Mickley, Loretta J.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Dominici, Francesca; Yue, Xu; Ebisu, Keita; Anderson, Georgiana Brooke; Khan, Rafi F. A.; Bravo, Mercedes A.; Bell, Michelle L. (Climatic Change, 2016)
Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004–2009) and future (2046–2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term “Smoke Wave,” defined as ≥2 consecutive days with high wildfire-specific PM2.5, to describe episodes of high air pollution from wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high wildfire pollution events. For 2004–2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM2.5 standards, wildfires contributed an average of 71.3 % of total PM2.5. Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57 % and 31 % increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health.

Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US - Liu, Jia Coco; Mickley, Loretta J.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yue, Xu; Peng, Roger D.; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L. (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) specifically from wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046–2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county ( n = 561) from wildfire

A systematic review of the physical health impacts from non-occupational exposure to wildfire smoke - Liu, Jia C.; Pereira, Gavin; Uhl, Sarah A.; Bravo, Mercedes A.; Bell, Michelle L. (Environmental Research, 2015)

Who among the elderly is most vulnerable to exposure to and health risks of fine particulate matter from wildfire smoke? - Liu, Jia Coco; Wilson, Ander; Mickley, Loretta J.; Ebisu, Keita; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Wang, Yun; Peng, Roger D.; Yue, Xu; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L. (American Journal of Epidemiology, 2017)
Wildfires burn more than 7 million acres in the United States annually, according to the US Forest Service. Little is known about which subpopulations are more vulnerable to health risks from wildfire smoke, including those associated with fine particulate matter. We estimated exposure to fine particles specifically from wildfires, as well as the associations between the presence of wildfire-specific fine particles and the amount of hospital admissions for respiratory causes among subpopulations older than 65 years of age in the western United States (2004–2009). Compared with other populations, higher fractions of persons who were black, lived in urban counties, and lived in California were exposed to more than 1 smoke wave (high-pollution episodes from wildfire smoke). The risks of respiratory admissions on smoke-wave days compared with non–smoke-wave days increased 10.4% (95% confidence interval: 1.9, 19.6) for women and 21.7% (95% confidence interval: 0.4, 47.3) for blacks. Our findings suggest that increased risks of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke was significantly higher for women than for men (10.4% vs. 3.7%), blacks than whites (21.7% vs. 6.9%), and, although associations were not statistically different, people in lower-education counties than higher-educated counties (12.7% vs. 6.1%). Our study raised important environmental justice issues that can inform public health programs and wildfire management. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of wildfires, evidence on vulnerable subpopulations can inform disaster preparedness and the understanding of climate change consequences.

Water demands for electricity generation in the U.S.: Modeling different scenarios for the water–energy nexus - Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Patel, Pralit; Kyle, Page; Davies, Evan; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James (Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015)
Keywords: Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) Water-energy nexus Climate mitigation policy

Occurrence of bacterial spot on pumpkin and squash fruit in the north central region of the United States and bacteria associated with the spots - Liu, Qiong; Ravanlou, Abbasali; Babadoost, Mohammad (Plant Disease, 2016)

Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate - Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhu, Jiang (Science Advances, 2017)
Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection.

Future U.S. wildfire potential trends projected using a dynamically downscaled climate change scenario - Liu, Yongqiang; L. Goodrick, Scott; A. Stanturf, John (Forest Ecology and Management, 2013)
Keywords: Wildfire Climate change Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI) modified Fosberg Fire Weather Index (mFFWI) Continental U.S.

Do invasive alien plants benefit more from global environmental change than native plants? - Liu, Yanjie; Oduor, Ayub M. O.; Zhang, Zhen; Manea, Anthony; Tooth, Ifeanna M.; Leishman, Michelle R.; Xu, Xingliang; Kleunen, Mark (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Invasive alien plant species threaten native biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem functions and can cause large economic damage. Plant invasions have been predicted to further increase under ongoing global environmental change. Numerous case studies have compared the performance of invasive and native plant species in response to global environmental change components (i.e. changes in mean levels of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration or nitrogen deposition). Individually, these studies usually involve low numbers of species and therefore the results cannot be generalized. Therefore, we performed a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis to assess whether there is a general pattern of differences in invasive and native plant performance under each component of global environmental change. We compiled a database of studies that reported performance measures for 74 invasive alien plant species and 117 native plant species in response to one of the above-mentioned global environmental change components. We found that elevated temperature and CO2 enrichment increased the performance of invasive alien plants more strongly than was the case for native plants. Invasive alien plants tended to also have a slightly stronger positive response to increased N deposition and increased precipitation than native plants, but these differences were not significant (N deposition: P = 0.051; increased precipitation: P = 0.679). Invasive alien plants tended to have a slightly stronger negative response to decreased precipitation than native plants, although this difference was also not significant (P = 0.060). So while drought could potentially reduce plant invasion, increases in the four other components of global environmental change considered, particularly global warming and atmospheric CO2 enrichment, may further increase the spread of invasive plants in the future.

Trends in global wildfire potential in a changing climate - Liu, Yongqiang; Stanturf, John; Goodrick, Scott (Forest Ecology and Management, 2010)
The trend in global wildfire potential under the climate change due to the greenhouse effect is investigated. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is calculated using the observed maximum temperature and precipitation and projected changes at the end of this century (2070-2100) by general circulation models (GCMs) for present and future climate conditions, respectively. It is shown that future wildfire potential increases significantly in the United States, South America, central Asia, southern Europe, southern Africa, and Australia. Fire potential moves up by one level in these regions, from currently low to future moderate potential or from moderate to high potential. Relative changes are the largest and smallest in southern Europe and Australia, respectively. The period with the KBDI greater than 400 (a simple definition for fire season in this study) becomes a few months longer. The increased fire potential is mainly caused by warming in the U.S., South America, and Australia and by the combination of warming and drying in the other regions. Sensitivity analysis shows that future fire potential depends on many factors such as climate model and emission scenario used for climate change projection. The results suggest dramatic increases in wildfire potential that will require increased future resources and management efforts for disaster prevention and recovery. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Climate change and wildfire risk in an expanding wildland–urban interface: A case study from the Colorado Front Range Corridor - Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C.; Lamsal, Aashis; Sohl, Terry L.; Hawbaker, Todd J. (Landscape Ecology, 2015)
Wildfire is a particular concern in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western United States where human development occurs close to flammable natural vegetation.

U.S. national climate assessment gaps and research needs: Overview, the economy and the international context - Liverman, Diana (Climatic Change, 2016)
A number of knowledge gaps and research priorities emerged during the third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Several are also gaps in the latest IPCC WG2 report. These omissions reflect major gaps in the underlying research base from which these assessments draw. These include the challenge of estimating the costs and benefits of climate change impacts and responses to climate change and the need for research on climate impacts on important sectors such as manufacturing and services. Climate impacts also need to be assessed within an international context in an increasingly connected and globalized world. Climate change is being experienced not only through changes within a locality but also through the impacts of climate change in other regions connected through trade, prices, and commodity chains, migratory species, human mobility and networked communications. Also under-researched are the connections and tradeoffs between responses to climate change at or across different scales, especially between adaptation and mitigation or between climate responses and other environmental and social policies. This paper discusses some of these research priorities, illustrating their significance through analysis of economic and international connections and case studies of responses to climate change. It also critically reflects on the process of developing research needs as part of the assessment process.

Explaining Hydrologic Extremes in the Upper Missouri River Basin - Livneh, Ben; Hoerling, Martin (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 2016)

Deep-ocean contribution to sea level and energy budget not detectable over the past decade - Llovel, W.; Willis, J. K.; Landerer, F. W.; Fukumori, I. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)
As the dominant reservoir of heat uptake in the climate system, the world/'s oceans provide a critical measure of global climate change. Here, we infer deep-ocean warming in the context of global sea-level rise and Earth/'s energy budget between January 2005 and December 2013. Direct measurements of ocean warming above 2,000 m depth explain about 32% of the observed annual rate of global mean sea-level rise. Over the entire water column, independent estimates of ocean warming yield a contribution of 0.77 [plusmn] 0.28 mm yr-1 in sea-level rise and agree with the upper-ocean estimate to within the estimated uncertainties. Accounting for additional possible systematic uncertainties, the deep ocean (below 2,000 m) contributes -0.13 [plusmn] 0.72 mm yr-1 to global sea-level rise and -0.08 [plusmn] 0.43 W m-2 to Earth/'s energy balance. The net warming of the ocean implies an energy imbalance for the Earth of 0.64 [plusmn] 0.44 W m-2 from 2005 to 2013.

Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: Development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition - Lloyd, S.J.; Kovats, R.S.; Chalabi, Z. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2011)

Stranded Assets: The Transition to a Low Carbon Economy. Overview for the Insurance Industry - Lloyd’s of London (Lloyd's, 2017)
Keywords: added by ERG

Challenges in developing methods for quantifying the effects of weather and climate on water-associated diseases: A systematic review - Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Armstrong, Ben; Fleming, Lora E.; Elson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Nichols, Gordon L. (PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2017)
Unsafe water supplies, limited sanitation and poor hygiene are still important causes of infectious disease (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis), especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases. Therefore, scientists are continuously developing new analysis methods to investigate the impacts of weather and climate on infectious disease, and particularly, on those associated with water. As these methods are based on an imperfect representation of the real world, they are inevitably subjected to many challenges. Based on a systematic review of the literature, we identified seven important challenges for scientists who develop new analysis methods.

Personal communication with the Chief of Natural Resource Mangement at Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park National Park Service - Lo, Rhonda

Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management - Loáiciga, Hugo A. (Environmental Research Letters, 2009)
Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), prominently carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and halocarbons, have risen from fossil-fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, and industry. There is currently heated national and international debate about the consequences of such increasing concentrations of GHGs on the Earth's climate, and, ultimately, on life and society in the world as we know it. This paper reviews (i) long-term patterns of climate change, secular climatic variability, and predicted population growth and their relation to water resources management, and, specifically, to ground water resources management, (ii) means available for mitigating and adapting to trends of climatic change and climatic variability and their impacts on ground water resources. Long-term (that is, over hundreds of millions of years), global-scale, climatic fluctuations are compared with more recent (in the Holocene) patterns of the global and regional climates to shed light on the meaning of rising mean surface temperature over the last century or so, especially in regions whose historical hydroclimatic records exhibit large inter-annual variability. One example of regional ground water resources response to global warming and population growth is presented.

The velocity of climate change - Loarie, S.R.; Duffy, P.B.; Hamilton, H.; Asner, G.P.; Field, C.B.; Ackerly, D.D. (Nature, 2009)

Regional differences in the influence of irrigation on climate - Lobell, David; Bala, Govindasamy; Mirin, Art; Phillips, Thomas; Maxwell, Reed; Rotman, Doug (Journal of Climate, 2009)

Comparing estimates of climate change impacts from process-based and statistical crop models - Lobell, David B.; Asseng, Senthold (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
The potential impacts of climate change on crop productivity are of widespread interest to those concerned with addressing climate change and improving global food security. Two common approaches to assess these impacts are process-based simulation models, which attempt to represent key dynamic processes affecting crop yields, and statistical models, which estimate functional relationships between historical observations of weather and yields. Examples of both approaches are increasingly found in the scientific literature, although often published in different disciplinary journals. Here we compare published sensitivities to changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and ozone from each approach for the subset of crops, locations, and climate scenarios for which both have been applied. Despite a common perception that statistical models are more pessimistic, we find no systematic differences between the predicted sensitivities to warming from process-based and statistical models up to +2 °C, with limited evidence at higher levels of warming. For precipitation, there are many reasons why estimates could be expected to differ, but few estimates exist to develop robust comparisons, and precipitation changes are rarely the dominant factor for predicting impacts given the prominent role of temperature, CO 2 , and ozone changes. A common difference between process-based and statistical studies is that the former tend to include the effects of CO 2 increases that accompany warming, whereas statistical models typically do not. Major needs moving forward include incorporating CO 2 effects into statistical studies, improving both approaches’ treatment of ozone, and increasing the use of both methods within the same study. At the same time, those who fund or use crop model projections should understand that in the short-term, both approaches when done well are likely to provide similar estimates of warming impacts, with statistical models generally requiring fewer resources to produce robust estimates, especially when applied to crops beyond the major grains.

Climate adaptation as mitigation: The case of agricultural investments - Lobell, David B.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W. (Environmental Research Letters, 2013)
Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0.35 GtCO 2 e yr −1 while spending $15 per tonne CO 2 e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5–95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25–0.43 Gt and $11–$22 per tonne CO 2 e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161–74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price elasticity of land supply with respect to land rents, and the elasticity of substitution between land and non-land inputs. For assessing the mitigation costs, the elasticity of productivity with respect to investments in research and development is also very important. Overall, this study finds that broad-based efforts to adapt agriculture to climate change have mitigation co-benefits that, even when forced to shoulder the entire expense of adaptation, are inexpensive relative to many activities whose main purpose is mitigation. These results therefore challenge the current approach of most climate financing portfolios, which support adaptation from funds completely separate from—and often much smaller than—mitigation ones.

Global scale climate—Crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming - Lobell, David B.; Field, Christopher B. (Environmental Research Letters, 2007)

The influence of climate change on global crop productivity - Lobell, D.B.; Gourdji, S.M. (Plant Physiology, 2012)

Climate trends and global crop production since 1980 - Lobell, D.B.; Schlenker, W.; Costa-Roberts, J. (Science, 2011)

Weather whiplash in agricultural regions drives deterioration of water quality - Loecke, Terrance D.; Burgin, Amy J.; Riveros-Iregui, Diego A.; Ward, Adam S.; Thomas, Steven A.; Davis, Caroline A.; Clair, Martin A. St. (Biogeochemistry, 2017)
Excess nitrogen (N) impairs inland water quality and creates hypoxia in coastal ecosystems. Agriculture is the primary source of N; agricultural management and hydrology together control aquatic ecosystem N loading. Future N loading will be determined by how agriculture and hydrology intersect with climate change, yet the interactions between changing climate and water quality remain poorly understood. Here, we show that changing precipitation patterns, resulting from climate change, interact with agricultural land use to deteriorate water quality. We focus on the 2012–2013 Midwestern U.S. drought as a “natural experiment”. The transition from drought conditions in 2012 to a wet spring in 2013 was abrupt; the media dubbed this “weather whiplash”. We use recent (2010–2015) and historical data (1950–2015) to connect weather whiplash (drought-to-flood transitions) to increases in riverine N loads and concentrations. The drought likely created highly N-enriched soils; this excess N mobilized during heavy spring rains (2013), resulting in a 34% increase (10.5 vs. 7.8 mg N L−1) in the flow-weighted mean annual nitrate concentration compared to recent years. Furthermore, we show that climate change will likely intensify weather whiplash. Increased weather whiplash will, in part, increase the frequency of riverine N exceeding E.P.A. drinking water standards. Thus, our observations suggest increased climatic variation will amplify negative trends in water quality in a region already grappling with severe impairments.

A brief history of environmental flows in Texas - Loeffler, Cindy (World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems, 2015)

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Seeing the forest and the trees—A cross-scale assessment of wildfire and carbon dynamics in fire-prone, forested ecosystems - Loehman, Rachel A; Reinhardt, Elizabeth; Riley, Karin L (Forest Ecology and Management, 2014)

Physically plausible methods for projecting changes in Great Lakes water levels under climate change scenarios - Lofgren, Brent M.; Rouhana, Jonathan (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2016)
A method for projecting the water levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes under scenarios of human-caused climate change, used almost to the exclusion of other methods in the past, relies very heavily on the large basin runoff model (LBRM) as a component for determining the water budget for the lake system. This model uses near-surface air temperature as a primary predictor of evapotranspiration (ET); as in previous published work, it is shown here that the model’s very high sensitivity to temperature causes it to overestimate ET in a way that is greatly at variance with the fundamental principle of conservation of energy at the land surface. The traditional formulation is characterized here as being equivalent to having several suns in the virtual sky created by LBRM. More physically based methods show, relative to the traditional method, often astoundingly less potential ET and less ET, more runoff from the land and net basin supply for the lake basins, and higher lake water levels in the future. Using various methods of estimating the statistical significance, it is found that, at minimum, these discrepancies in results are significant at the 99.998% level. The lesson for the larger climate impact community is to use caution about whether an impact is forced directly by air temperature itself or is significantly forced by season or latitude independently of temperature. The results here apply only to the water levels of the Great Lakes and the hydrology of its basin and do not affect larger questions of climate change.
Keywords: Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Atmosphere-land interaction,Climate change,Energy budget/balance,Hydrometeorology,Models and modeling,Hydrologic models,Land surface model

Rising atmospheric CO2 and human nutrition: Toward globally imbalanced plant stoichiometry? - Loladze, Irakli (Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2002)
Ch6

Hidden shift of the ionome of plants exposed to elevated CO2 depletes minerals at the base of human nutrition - Loladze, Irakli (eLife, 2014)
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Analysis of Washington, DC, wind and temperature extremes with examination of climate change for engineering applications - Lombardo, Franklin T.; Ayyub, Bilal M. (ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 2015)