Climate at a Glance. Regional Time Series: Northwest Climate Region, Precipitation, July–September 2015 [web tool] - NCEI (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2018)

Climate at a Glance. Regional Time Series: Northwest Climate Region, Precipitation, January–June 2015 [web tool] - NCEI (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2018)

Climate at a Glance. Statewide Time Series: Alaska Average Temperature, 1925–2016 [web tool] - NCEI (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2018)

Soil Health Partnership [web page] - NCGA (National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), 2018)

Federal and State Recognized Tribes (Updated October 2016) - NCSL (National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), 2016)

State Renewable Portfolio Standards and Goals [web page] - NCSL (National Conference of State Legislatures, 2018)

U.S. Drought Monitor: Puerto Rico (August 11, 2015) [web image] - NDMC (National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), 2015)

National Disaster Resilience Competition (NDRC): Phase 2 Fact Sheet - NDRC (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2015)

National Disaster Resilience Competition (NDRC): Grantee Profiles - NDRC (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2016)

State of Louisiana - NDRC (National Disaster Resilience Competition (NDRC): Grantee Profiles, 2016)

Expected climate change impacts on soil erosion rates: A review - Nearing, MA; Pruski, F.F.; O'Neal, M.R. (Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2004)
Global warming is expected to lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle, including more total rainfall and more frequent high intensity rainfall events. Rainfall amounts and intensities increased on average in the United States during the 20th century, and according to climate change models they are expected to continue to increase during the 21st century. These rainfall changes, along with expected changes in temperature, solar radiation, and atmospheric C02 concentrations, will have significant impacts on soil erosion rates. The processes involved in the impact of climate change on soil erosion by water are complex, involving changes in rainfall amounts and intensities, number of days of precipitation, ratio of rain to snow, plant biomass production, plant residue decomposition rates, soil microbial activity, evapo-transpiration rates, and shifts in land use necessary to accommodate a new climatic regime. This paper reviews several recent studies conducted by the authors that address the potential effects of climate change on soil erosion rates. The results show cause for concern. Rainfall erosivity levels may be on the rise across much of the United States. Where rainfall amounts increase, erosion and runoff will increase at an even greater rate: the ratio of erosion increase to annual rainfall increase is on the order of 1.7. Even in cases where annual rainfall would decrease, system feedbacks related to decreased biomass production could lead to greater susceptibility of the soil to erode. Results also show how farmers' response to climate change can potentially exacerbate, or ameliorate, the changes in erosion rates expected.

California winter precipitation change under global warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble - Neelin, J. David; Langenbrunner, Baird; Meyerson, Joyce E.; Hall, Alex; Berg, Neil (Journal of Climate, 2013)
Projections of possible precipitation change in California under global warming have been subject to considerable uncertainty because California lies between the region anticipated to undergo increases in precipitation at mid-to-high latitudes and regions of anticipated decrease in the subtropics. Evaluation of the large-scale model experiments for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests a greater degree of agreement on the sign of the winter (December–February) precipitation change than in the previous such intercomparison, indicating a greater portion of California falling within the increased precipitation zone. While the resolution of global models should not be relied on for accurate depiction of topographic rainfall distribution within California, the precipitation changes depend substantially on large-scale shifts in the storm tracks arriving at the coast. Significant precipitation increases in the region arriving at the California coast are associated with an eastward extension of the region of strong Pacific jet stream, which appears to be a robust feature of the large-scale simulated changes. This suggests that effects of this jet extension in steering storm tracks toward the California coast constitute an important factor that should be assessed for impacts on incoming storm properties for high-resolution regional model assessments.
Keywords: North America,Climate change,Hydrology,Climate models

Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations - Neelin, J. D.; Münnich, M.; Su, H.; Meyerson, J. E.; Holloway, C. E. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2006)
Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local intermodel agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of intermodel agreement: the Caribbean/Central-American region.

Estimating climate change effects on grazing management and beef cattle production in the Pacific Northwest - Neibergs, J. Shannon; Hudson, Tipton D.; Kruger, Chad E.; Hamel-Rieken, Kaelin (Climatic Change, 2017)
Climate change studies consistently conclude that the Pacific Northwest (PNW) will increase in temperature with the greatest change occurring as hotter summer temperatures, precipitation becomes more uncertain with projections for wetter winters and drier summers, a decline in snowpack and an increase in wildfire risk. These impacts on rangeland and pastures affect forage growth and the timing of forage availability for grazing, affecting stocking rates, turn-out dates, and end of grazing gather dates. The magnitude of projected climate change will be dynamic year to year which adds significant challenges to implementing effective grazing management plans. The PNW has about 1.3 million head of beef cows that are the primary grazing resource users. Cow-calf producers’ production costs will increase to offset climate change impacts, but PNW cattle producers have an economic comparative advantage to other regions more negatively impacted by climate change such as the Southwest. The PNW is projected to have lower drought risk and the PNW’s extensive irrigation system can produce feedstuffs to offset drought-reduced grazing resources.

Flooding in western Washington: The connection to atmospheric rivers - Neiman, Paul J.; Schick, Lawrence J.; Ralph, F. Martin; Hughes, Mimi; Wick, Gary A. (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2011)
This study utilizes multiple decades of daily streamflow data gathered in four major watersheds in western Washington to determine the meteorological conditions most likely to cause flooding in those watersheds. Two are located in the Olympic Mountains and the other two in the western Cascades; and each has uniquely different topographic characteristics. The flood analysis is based on the maximum daily flow observed during each water year (WY) at each site [i.e., the annual peak daily flow (APDF)], with an initial emphasis on the 12 most recent water years between WY1998 and 2009, and then focusing on a 30-year interval between WY1980 and 2009. The shorter time period coincides with relatively complete passive microwave satellite coverage of integrated water vapor (IWV) over the Pacific basin. The combination of IWV imagery and streamflow data highlights a close link between landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) and APDFs (i.e., 46 of the 48 APDFs occurred with landfalling ARs). To complement this approach, the three-decade time series of APDFs, which correspond to the availability of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset, are examined. The APDFs occur most often, and are typically largest in magnitude, from November to January. The NARR is used to assess the composite meteorological conditions associated with the 10 largest APDFs at each site during this 30-year period. Heavy precipitation fell during the top 10 APDFs, and anomalously high composite NARR melting levels averaged ~1.9 km MSL, which is primarily above the four basins of interest. Hence, on average, mostly rain rather than snow fell within these basins, leading to enhanced runoff. The flooding on the four watersheds shared common meteorological attributes, including the presence of landfalling ARs with anomalous warmth, strong low-level water vapor fluxes, and weak static stability. There were also key differences that modulated the orographic control of precipitation. Notably, two watersheds experienced their top 10 APDFs when the low-level flow was southwesterly, while the other two basins had their largest APDFs with west–southwesterly flow. These differences arose because of the region’s complex topography, basin orientations, and related rain shadowing.
Keywords: Flood events,Rivers,Topographic effects,Satellite observations,Water vapor,Streamflow

Megapolitan America: A New Vision for Understanding America’s Metropolitan Geography - Nelson, Arthur C.; Lang, Robert E. (Routledge, 2011)

Adaptation to environmental change: Contributions of a resilience framework - Nelson, D.R.; Adger, W.N.; Brown, K. (Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2007)

Climate change’s impact on key ecosystem services and the human well-being they support in the US - Nelson, Erik J.; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Arkema, Katie; Geller, Gary; Girvetz, Evan; Goodrich, Dave; Matzek, Virginia; Pinsky, Malin; Reid, Walt; Saunders, Martin; Semmens, Darius; et al. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2013)

Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost - Nelson, Frederick E.; Anisimov, Oleg A.; Shiklomanov, Nikolay I. (Nature, 2001)

Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: Why don't the models agree - Nelson, Gerald C; Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Calvin, Katherine; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Lotze‐Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; et al. (Agricultural Economics, 2014)

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks - Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Lampe, Martin Von; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014)

Implications of incorporating air-quality co-benefits into climate change policymaking - Nemet, G.F.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P. (Environmental Research Letters, 2010)

Special Reliability Assessment: Accommodating an Increased Dependence on Natural Gas for Electric Power. Phase II: A Vulnerability and Scenario Assessment for the North American Bulk Power System - NERC (North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), 2013)

Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era - Nerem, R. S.; Beckley, B. D.; Fasullo, J. T.; Hamlington, B. D.; Masters, D.; Mitchum, G. T. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018)
Satellite altimetry has shown that global mean sea level has been rising at a rate of ∼3 ± 0.4 mm/y since 1993. Using the altimeter record coupled with careful consideration of interannual and decadal variability as well as potential instrument errors, we show that this rate is accelerating at 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y2, which agrees well with climate model projections. If sea level continues to change at this rate and acceleration, sea-level rise by 2100 (∼65 cm) will be more than double the amount if the rate was constant at 3 mm/y.Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change–driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y2. Coupled with the average climate-change–driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.

Estimating mean sea level change from the TOPEX and Jason altimeter missions - Nerem, R. S.; Chambers, D.P.; Choe, C.; Mitchum, G.T. (Marine Geodesy, 2010)
The Jason-2 satellite altimeter mission was launched in June 2008, extending the record of precision sea level measurements that was initiated with the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992 and continued with the launch of Jason-1 in December 2001. We have used the measurements from these three missions to construct a seamless record of global mean sea level change from 1993 to the present. We present the results of our calibration activities, including data comparisons during the “tandem period” of the missions, during which we solve for biases between the missions, as well as comparisons to independent tide gauge sea level measurements. When the entire record is assembled, the average rate of sea level rise from 1993–2009 is 3.4 ± 0.4 mm/year. There is considerable interannual variation due to ENSO-related processes, which include the period of lower sea level rise over the last three years of the time series during the recent La Nina event.
Keywords: Sea level change,; satellite altimetry

Ecosystem responses of a tidal freshwater marsh experiencing saltwater intrusion and altered hydrology - Neubauer, Scott C. (Estuaries and Coasts, 2013)
Tidal freshwater marshes exist in a dynamic environment where plant productivity, subsurface biogeochemical processes, and soil elevation respond to hydrological fluctuations over tidal to multi-decadal time scales. The objective of this study was to determine ecosystem responses to elevated salinity and increased water inputs, which are likely as sea level rise accelerates and saltwater intrudes into freshwater habitats. Since June 2008, in situ manipulations in a Zizaniopsis miliacea (giant cutgrass)-dominated tidal freshwater marsh in South Carolina have raised porewater salinities from freshwater to oligohaline levels and/or subtly increased the amount of water flowing through the system. Ecosystem-level fluxes of CO2 and CH4 have been measured to quantify rates of production and respiration. During the first 20 months of the experiment, the major impact of elevated salinity was a depression of plant productivity, whereas increasing freshwater inputs had a greater effect on rates of ecosystem CO2 emissions, primarily due to changes in soil processes. Net ecosystem production, the balance between gross ecosystem production and ecosystem respiration, decreased by 55% due to elevated salinity, increased by 75% when freshwater inputs were increased, and did not change when salinity and hydrology were both manipulated. These changes in net ecosystem production may impact the ability of marshes to keep up with rising sea levels since the accumulation of organic matter is critical in allowing tidal freshwater marshes to build soil volume. Thus, it is necessary to have regional-scale predictions of saltwater intrusion and water level changes relative to the marsh surface in order to accurately forecast the long-term sustainability of tidal freshwater marshes to future environmental change.

Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: New economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy - Neumann, James E.; Emanuel, Kerry; Ravela, Sai; Ludwig, Lindsay; Kirshen, Paul; Bosma, Kirk; Martinich, Jeremy (Climatic Change, 2015)
Recent literature, the US Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment, and recent events, such as Hurricane Sandy, highlight the need to take better account of both storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in assessing coastal risks of climate change. This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and SLR for the US coast through 2100. The model is tested using multiple SLR scenarios, including those incorporating estimates of dynamic ice-sheet melting, two global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy scenarios, and multiple general circulation model climate sensitivities. The results illustrate that a large area of coastal land and property is at risk of damage from storm surge today; that land area and economic value at risk expands over time as seas rise and as storms become more intense; that adaptation is a cost-effective response to this risk, but residual impacts remain after adaptation measures are in place; that incorporating site-specific episodic storm surge increases national damage estimates by a factor of two relative to SLR-only estimates, with greater impact on the East and Gulf coasts; and that mitigation of GHGs contributes to significant lessening of damages. For a mid-range climate-sensitivity scenario that incorporates dynamic ice sheet melting, the approach yields national estimates of the impacts of storm surge and SLR of $990 billion through 2100 (net of adaptation, cumulative undiscounted 2005$); GHG mitigation policy reduces the impacts of the mid-range climate-sensitivity estimates by $84 to $100 billion.

Climate change risks to US infrastructure: Impacts on roads, bridges, coastal development, and urban drainage - Neumann, J. E.; Price, J.; Chinowsky, P.; Wright, L.; Ludwig, L.; Streeter, R.; Jones, R.; Smith, J. B.; Perkins, W.; Jantarasami, L.; Martinich, J. (Climatic Change, 2015)
Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States. Using four models that analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation, this paper estimates impacts to roads, bridges, coastal properties, and urban drainage infrastructure and investigates sensitivity to varying greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate sensitivities, and global climate models. The results suggest that the impacts of climate change in this sector could be large, especially in the second half of the 21st century as sea-level rises, temperature increases, and precipitation patterns become more extreme and affect the sustainability of long-lived infrastructure. Further, when considering sea-level rise, scenarios which incorporate dynamic ice sheet melting yield impact model results in coastal areas that are roughly 70 to 80 % higher than results that do not incorporate dynamic ice sheet melting. The potential for substantial economic impacts across all infrastructure sectors modeled, however, can be reduced by cost-effective adaptation measures. Mitigation policies also show potential to reduce impacts in the infrastructure sector - a more aggressive mitigation policy reduces impacts by 25 to 35 %, and a somewhat less aggressive policy reduces impacts by 19 to 30 %. The existing suite of models suitable for estimating these damages nonetheless covers only a small portion of expected infrastructure sector effects from climate change, so much work remains to better understand impacts on electric and telecommunications networks, rail, and air transportation systems. In addition, the effects of climate-induced extreme events are likely to be important, but are incompletely understood and remain an emerging area for research.
Keywords: Infrastructure Urban Climate change Transportation Projection

Moose research: What's in store for New Hampshire's moose? - New Hampshire Fish and Game (New Hampshire Fish and Game, 2017)

Getting to resilience: A community planning evaluation tool [web tool] - New Jersey Resilient Coastal Communities Initiative (2018)

Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR) [web site] - New York City (Office of the Mayor, 2013)

[web site] - New York Climate Change Science Clearinghouse (2018)

Community Risk and Resiliency Act (CRRA) - New York State Assembly (2014)

Staff's Responsive Proposal For Preserving Zero-Emissions Attributes - New York State Department of Public Service (New York State Department of Public Service, 2016)

Hurricane Harvey’s public-health nightmare - Newkirk II, Vann R. (The Atlantic, 2017)

Hurricanes and wildfires: Generic characteristics of community adaptive capacity - Newman, Soren; Carroll, Matthew; Jakes, Pamela; Higgins, Lorie (Environmental Hazards, 2014)

Keeping 74 Bridge Street Above Water: Lessons from the City of Newport and the Point Neighborhood on Protecting Historic Structures and Neighborhoods from the Impacts of Climate Change [exhibition booklet] - Newport Restoration Foundation (2016)

Keeping History Above Water - Newport Restoration Foundation (Newport Restoration Foundation, 2017)

Notes from the field: Increase in Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections associated with consumption of Atlantic Coast shellfish—2013 - Newton, Anna E.; Garrett, Nancy; Stroika, Steven G.; Halpin, Jessica L.; Turnsek, Maryann; Mody, Rajal K. (MMWR: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 2014)
Anna E. Newton Nancy Garrett Steven G. Stroika Jessica L. Halpin Maryann Turnsek Rajal K. Mody

The stakes are rising: Lessons on engaging coastal communities on climate adaptation in Southern California - Newton Mann, Alyssa; Grifman, Phyllis; Finzi Hart, Juliette (Cities and the Environment (CATE), 2017)

Firewise USA®: Residents Reducing Wildfire Risks [web page] - NFPA (National Fire Protection Association, 2018)

Economic and environmental impacts of harmful non-indigenous species in Southeast Asia - Nghiem, Le T. P.; Soliman, Tarek; Yeo, Darren C. J.; Tan, Hugh T. W.; Evans, Theodore A.; Mumford, John D.; Keller, Reuben P.; Baker, Richard H. A.; Corlett, Richard T.; Carrasco, Luis R. (PLOS ONE, 2013)
Harmful non-indigenous species (NIS) impose great economic and environmental impacts globally, but little is known about their impacts in Southeast Asia. Lack of knowledge of the magnitude of the problem hinders the allocation of appropriate resources for NIS prevention and management. We used benefit-cost analysis embedded in a Monte-Carlo simulation model and analysed economic and environmental impacts of NIS in the region to estimate the total burden of NIS in Southeast Asia. The total annual loss caused by NIS to agriculture, human health and the environment in Southeast Asia is estimated to be US$33.5 billion (5th and 95th percentile US$25.8–39.8 billion). Losses and costs to the agricultural sector are estimated to be nearly 90% of the total (US$23.4–33.9 billion), while the annual costs associated with human health and the environment are US$1.85 billion (US$1.4–2.5 billion) and US$2.1 billion (US$0.9–3.3 billion), respectively, although these estimates are based on conservative assumptions. We demonstrate that the economic and environmental impacts of NIS in low and middle-income regions can be considerable and that further measures, such as the adoption of regional risk assessment protocols to inform decisions on prevention and control of NIS in Southeast Asia, could be beneficial.

Climate change and fetal health: The impacts of exposure to extreme temperatures in New York City - Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M. (Environmental Research, 2016)
Keywords: Climate change Fetal health Urban sustainability

Modelling infrastructure interdependencies, resiliency and sustainability - Nguyen, Tri-Dung; Cai, Ximing; Ouyang, Yanfeng; Housh, Mashor (International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2016)

Adaptation Workbook: A Climate Change Tool for Land Management and Conservation [web tool] - NIACS (Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, 2018)

Forest Adaptation Planning and Practices - NIACS (Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS))

Effect of vineyard-scale climate variability on Pinot noir phenolic composition - Nicholas, Kimberly A.; Matthews, Mark A.; Lobell, David B.; Willits, Neil H.; Field, Christopher B. (Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2011)
Keywords: Climate change Vitis vinifera Wine Climate sensitivity Anthocyanins Phenology Temperature

Climate change, climate justice, and environmental health: Implications for the nursing profession - Nicholas, Patrice K.; Breakey, Suellen (Journal of Nursing Scholarship, 2017)
Purpose Climate change is an emerging challenge linked to negative outcomes for the environment and human health. Since the 1960s, there has been a growing recognition of the need to address climate change and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions implicated in the warming of our planet. There are also deleterious health outcomes linked to complex climate changes that are emerging in the 21st century. This article addresses the social justice issues associated with climate change and human health and discussion of climate justice. Organizing Construct Discussion paper. Methods A literature search of electronic databases was conducted for articles, texts, and documents related to climate change, climate justice, and human health. Findings The literature suggests that those who contribute least to global warming are those who will disproportionately be affected by the negative health outcomes of climate change. The concept of climate justice and the role of the Mary Robinson Foundation—Climate Justice are discussed within a framework of nursing's professional responsibility and the importance of social justice for the world's people. The nursing profession must take a leadership role in engaging in policy and advocacy discussions in addressing the looming problems associated with climate change. Conclusions Nursing organizations have adopted resolutions and engaged in leadership roles to address climate change at the local, regional, national, and global level. It is essential that nurses embrace concepts related to social justice and engage in the policy debate regarding the deleterious effects on human health related to global warming and climate change. Nursing's commitment to social justice offers an opportunity to offer significant global leadership in addressing the health implications related to climate change. Clinical Relevance Recognizing the negative impacts of climate change on well‐being and the underlying socioeconomic reasons for their disproportionate and inequitable distribution can expand and optimize the profession's role in education, practice, research, and policy‐making efforts to address climate change.

Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: Changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios - Nicholls, Robert J. (Global Environmental Change, 2004)
Keywords: Climate change Coastal vulnerability Flood risk Coastal ecosystems

Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones - Nicholls, R.J.; Cazenave, A. (Science, 2010)

Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: A global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century - Nicholls, Robert J.; Tol, Richard S. J. (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2006)
Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 ‘future worlds’), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost–benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change - Nicotra, Adrienne B.; Beever, Erik A.; Robertson, Amanda L.; Hofmann, Gretchen E.; O'Leary, John (Conservation Biology, 2015)
Keywords: climate change extinction risk genetic variation phenotypic plasticity resilience vulnerability assessment cambio climático evaluación de la vulnerabilidad plasticidad fenotípica resiliencia riesgo de extinción variación genética

North American Drought Monitor - NIDIS (U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), 2017)

Extreme rainfall in Texas: Patterns and predictability - Nielsen-Gammon, John W.; Zhang, Fuqing; Odins, Andrew M.; Myoung, Boksoon (Physical Geography, 2005)

Transportation - Niemeier, Deb A.; Goodchild, Anne V.; Rowell, Maura; Walker, Joan L.; Lin, Jane; Schweitzer, Lisa (Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, 2013)

An Overview of Potential Economic Costs to Washington of a Business-As-Usual Approach to Climate Change - Niemi, Ernie; Buckley, Mark; Neculae, Cleo; Reich, Sarah (University of Oregon, Program on Climate Economics of the Climate Leadership Initiative, 2009)

Federal Firefighting Costs (Suppression Only) [table] - NIFC (National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), 2017)

Historical Wildland Fire Information: Suppression Costs (1985-2016) - NIFC (National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), 2017)

Snow occurrence changes over the central and eastern United States under future warming scenarios - Ning, Liang; Bradley, Raymond S. (Scientific Reports, 2015)

Management Plan for Caribbean Acropora Population Enhancement - NMFS (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), Southeast Regional Office, 2016)

North American Drought Monitor in June 2011 - NOAA (NOAA National Climatic Data Center)

Smoke from Canadian Wildfires Travels Over United States [image] - NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Drought: Public Fact Sheet - NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, 2008)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Information Quality Guidelines - NOAA (2014)

NOAA's Arctic Action Plan—Supporting the National Strategy for the Arctic Region - NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2014)

Storm Events Database: Drought in San Joaquin Valley, California - NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information, 2015)

State Climate Summaries [web site] - NOAA (2016)

Mean sea level trend: 9410170 San Diego, California - NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Ocean Service, 2017)

Mean sea level trend: 9414290 San Francisco, California - NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Ocean Service, 2017)

NOAA Report on the U.S. Ocean and Great Lakes Economy - NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Office of Coastal Management, 2017)

Economics: National Ocean Watch [data] - NOAA (NOAA Office of Coastal Management, 2017)

Sea Level Rise Viewer [web tool] - NOAA (NOAA Office of Coastal Management, 2017)

National Climate Report: June 2017 - NOAA (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017)

NOAA Climate Change Web Portal - NOAA (NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 2017)

National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program - NOAA (2016)

The 1992 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season - NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center, 1992)

Historic Hurricane Season—2015 Summary for the Central Pacific Basin [Media advisory] - NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center, 2015)

Farmers reroute water for fish: Yakima irrigators use canals to keep streams flowing in drought - NOAA Fisheries (NOAA Fisheries: West Coast Region, 2015)

Fisheries Economics of the United States, 2014 - NOAA Fisheries (NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA Fisheries), 2016)

2015 Adult Sockeye Salmon Passage Report - NOAA Fisheries (NOAA Fisheries in Collaboration with the US Army Corps of Engineers and Idaho Department of Fish and Game, 2016)

National Saltwater Recreational Fisheries Policy: West Coast Regional Implementation Plan 2016-2017 - NOAA Fisheries (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, 2016)

Fisheries Economics of the United States, 2015 - NOAA Fisheries (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Office of Science and Technology, 2017)

2016 Report to Congress on the Status of U.S. Fisheries - NOAA Fisheries (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, 2017)

Guidance for Considering the Use of Living Shorelines - NOAA Living Shorelines Workgroup (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2015)

Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters [web page] - NOAA NCEI (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2018)

Historic Flooding—October 1–5, 2015 [story map] - NOAA NWS (NOAA National Weather Service, 2015)

Describing the Ocean Economies of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico [web site] - NOAA Office for Coastal Management (NOAA Office for Coastal Management, 2016)

xmACIS2 [Applied Climate Information System online tool] - NOAA RCC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Regional Climate Centers (RCC), 2017)

Emergency Beacons - NOAA-Beacons (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking, 2017)

Commercial Fisheries Statistics - NOAA-Commercial Fisheries (NOAA Office of Science and Technology, National Marine Fisheries Service, 2015)

Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center - NOAA-River Forecast (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Weather Service, 2017)

Increasing ambient temperature reduces emotional well-being - Noelke, Clemens; McGovern, Mark; Corsi, Daniel J.; Jimenez, Marcia P.; Stern, Ari; Wing, Ian Sue; Berkman, Lisa (Environmental Research, 2016)
Keywords: Mental health Heat exposure Climate impacts Subjective well-being Social inequality

Air Quality - Nolte, C.G.; Dolwick, P.D.; Fann, N.; Horowitz, L.W.; Naik, V.; Pinder, R.W.; Spero, T.L.; Winner, D.A.; Ziska, L.H. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Traditional knowledge of the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) around St. Lawrence Island, Alaska - Noongwook, George; The Native Village of Savoonga; The Native Village of Gambell; Huntington, Henry P.; George, John C. (Arctic, 2009)
Keywords: bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, St. Lawrence Island, Bering Sea, traditional knowledge, Yupik, Alaska

CO2 enhancement of forest productivity constrained by limited nitrogen availability - Norby, Richard J.; Warren, Jeffrey M.; Iversen, Colleen M.; Medlyn, Belinda E.; McMurtrie, Ross E. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2010)
Stimulation of terrestrial plant production by rising CO2 concentration is projected to reduce the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Coupled climate–carbon cycle models are sensitive to this negative feedback on atmospheric CO2, but model projections are uncertain because of the expectation that feedbacks through the nitrogen (N) cycle will reduce this so-called CO2 fertilization effect. We assessed whether N limitation caused a reduced stimulation of net primary productivity (NPP) by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration over 11 y in a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment in a deciduous Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum) forest stand in Tennessee. During the first 6 y of the experiment, NPP was significantly enhanced in forest plots exposed to 550 ppm CO2 compared with NPP in plots in current ambient CO2, and this was a consistent and sustained response. However, the enhancement of NPP under elevated CO2 declined from 24% in 2001–2003 to 9% in 2008. Global analyses that assume a sustained CO2 fertilization effect are no longer supported by this FACE experiment. N budget analysis supports the premise that N availability was limiting to tree growth and declining over time —an expected consequence of stand development, which was exacerbated by elevated CO2. Leaf- and stand-level observations provide mechanistic evidence that declining N availability constrained the tree response to elevated CO2; these observations are consistent with stand-level model projections. This FACE experiment provides strong rationale and process understanding for incorporating N limitation and N feedback effects in ecosystem and global models used in climate change assessments.

Ecological lessons from Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) Experiments - Norby, Richard J.; Zak, Donald R. (Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 2011)
Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments have provided novel insights into the ecological mechanisms controlling the cycling and storage of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and contribute to our ability to project how ecosystems respond to increasing CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere. Important lessons emerge by evaluating a set of hypotheses that initially guided the design and longevity of forested FACE experiments. Net primary productivity is increased by elevated CO2, but the response can diminish over time. Carbon accumulation is driven by the distribution of carbon among plant and soil components with differing turnover rates and by interactions between the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Plant community structure may change, but elevated CO2 has only minor effects on microbial community structure. FACE results provide a strong foundation for next-generation experiments in unexplored ecosystems and inform coupled climate-biogeochemical models of the ecological mechanisms controlling ecosystem response to the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Keywords: elevated CO2,forests,net primary productivity,carbon cycle,nitrogen cycle,soil microbial activity,soil organic matter

Supporting local climate change adaptation: Where we are and where we need to go - Nordgren, John; Stults, Missy; Meerow, Sara (Environmental Science & Policy, 2016)
Keywords: Climate adaptation Climate services Local government Local community Adaptation resources

Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change - Nordhaus, William D. (MIT Press, 1994)

Living with shore protection structures: A review - Nordstrom, Karl F. (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2014)
Keywords: beach erosion coastal habitats human impacts landforms restoration

Norfolk: Resilience City - Norfolk 100RC Initiative (100 Resilient Cities/The Rockefeller Foundation, 2015)

The Effects of Altered Diet on the Health of the Karuk People - Norgaard, Kari Marie (Karuk Tribe of California, 2005)

The politics of fire and the social impacts of fire exclusion on the Klamath - Norgaard, Kari Marie (Humboldt Journal of Social Relations, 2014)

Karuk Tribe Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Assessing Vulnerabilities from the Increased Frequency of High Severity Fire - Norgaard, Kari Marie; Vinyeta, Kirsten; Hillman, Leaf; Tripp, Bill; Lake, Frank (Karuk Tribe, Department of Natural Resources, 2016)

Community resilience as a metaphor, theory, set of capacities, and strategy for disaster readiness - Norris, Fran H.; Stevens, Susan P.; Pfefferbaum, Betty; Wyche, Karen F.; Pfefferbaum, Rose L. (American Journal of Community Psychology, 2008)
Communities have the potential to function effectively and adapt successfully in the aftermath of disasters. Drawing upon literatures in several disciplines, we present a theory of resilience that encompasses contemporary understandings of stress, adaptation, wellness, and resource dynamics. Community resilience is a process linking a network of adaptive capacities (resources with dynamic attributes) to adaptation after a disturbance or adversity. Community adaptation is manifest in population wellness, defined as high and non-disparate levels of mental and behavioral health, functioning, and quality of life. Community resilience emerges from four primary sets of adaptive capacities—Economic Development, Social Capital, Information and Communication, and Community Competence—that together provide a strategy for disaster readiness. To build collective resilience, communities must reduce risk and resource inequities, engage local people in mitigation, create organizational linkages, boost and protect social supports, and plan for not having a plan, which requires flexibility, decision-making skills, and trusted sources of information that function in the face of unknowns.

Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record - Norris, Joel R.; Allen, Robert J.; Evan, Amato T.; Zelinka, Mark D.; O’Dell, Christopher W.; Klein, Stephen A. (Nature, 2016)

The American Indian and Alaska Native Population: 2010 - Norris, Tina; Vines, Paula L.; Hoeffel, Elizabeth M. (2010 Census Briefs, 2012)

Relationships between road slipperiness, traffic accident risk and winter road maintenance activity - Norrman, Jonas; Eriksson, Marie; Lindqvist, Sven (Climate Research, 2000)
A method for deriving quantitative relationships between road slipperiness, traffic accident risk and winter road maintenance (WRM) activity is described. The method is also applied to data from an area in southern Sweden. If a specific type of road slipperiness represents a large accident risk despite high WRM activity it is important to increase public awareness during such periods. If the type of slipperiness represents a large accident risk but is accompanied by low WRM activity, it is also important to increase the WRM to reduce the accident risk. In the method, a road slipperiness classification, based on atmospheric processes, is used to classify the road conditions at the time an accident occurred. The road condition is classified either as non-slippery or as one out of 10 types of slipperiness. Data for the slipperiness classification are taken from the Swedish Road Weather Information System (RWIS). Results from this study show that the traffic accident risk was different for different types of road slipperiness. Highest accident risk was associated with road slipperiness due to rain or sleet on a frozen road surface. When accidents occurred in these situations, there was always high WRM activity. This indicates that, in order to reduce the accident rate during these situations, public awareness must be increased by providing information to drivers. The study also demonstrates the benefits of applying a standardized road slipperiness classification to all kinds of sources of road safety information, such as a RWIS, traffic accident reports and WRM reports. With a standardized and objective classification of the road conditions and digitally stored data, all evaluations are easily conducted.

Reform forest fire management - North, M. P.; Stephens, S. L.; Collins, B. M.; Agee, J. K.; Aplet, G.; Franklin, J. F.; Fulé, P. Z. (Science, 2015)

Building Resiliency at the Rockaways [web site] - Northeast Climate Hub (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2017)

55th Northeast Regional Stock Assessment Workshop (55th SAW): Assessment Summary Report - Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) (NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service, 2013)

62nd Northeast Regional Stock Assessment Workshop (62nd SAW): Assessment Report - Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) (NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service, 2017)

WA Hunger Facts - Northwest Harvest (Northwest Harvest, 2017)

Planning for cooler cities: A framework to prioritise green infrastructure to mitigate high temperatures in urban landscapes - Norton, Briony A.; Coutts, Andrew M.; Livesley, Stephen J.; Harris, Richard J.; Hunter, Annie M.; Williams, Nicholas S. G. (Landscape and Urban Planning, 2015)
Warming associated with urban development will be exacerbated in future years by temperature increases due to climate change. The strategic implementation of urban green infrastructure (UGI) e.g. street trees, parks, green roofs and facades can help achieve temperature reductions in urban areas while delivering diverse additional benefits such as pollution reduction and biodiversity habitat. Although the greatest thermal benefits of UGI are achieved in climates with hot, dry summers, there is comparatively little information available for land managers to determine an appropriate strategy for UGI implementation under these climatic conditions. We present a framework for prioritisation and selection of UGI for cooling. The framework is supported by a review of the scientific literature examining the relationships between urban geometry, UGI and temperature mitigation which we used to develop guidelines for UGI implementation that maximises urban surface temperature cooling. We focus particularly on quantifying the cooling benefits of four types of UGI: green open spaces (primarily public parks), shade trees, green roofs, and vertical greening systems (green walls and facades) and demonstrate how the framework can be applied using a case study from Melbourne, Australia.
non-US but may apply
Keywords: Green infrastructure Adaptation Urban Climate change Heat Health

St. Louis MSD CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program - Norton, Melantha D.; Moore, Gary T. (Proceedings of the Water Environment Federation, 2017)
The Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District (MSD) is a regional Special Sewer District that provides Wastewater and Stormwater services to the City of St. Louis and most of St. Louis County, Missouri. The service area includes a Combined Sewer System (CSS) in the City and the older portions of the County. In 2011, MSD completed a Combined Sewer Overflow Long-Term Control Plan (LTCP), which was formalized in a Consent Decree (CD) with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April, 2012. MSD’s Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) control plan includes a $100 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program in the areas of the City of St. Louis that flow toward the Mississippi River CSOs. MSD spent five years conducting a $3 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Pilot Program, culminating in a CD required final report completed in December 2015. The report explains what work was completed in the GI Pilot Program and the results, and outlines MSD’s plan for full implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program control measure. This presentation will briefly review the GI Pilot Program, with the main focus to discuss the findings of the GI Pilot Program and the plan for full-implementation of the $100 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program. Included will be major components of the program, the expected reduction in CSO volume and use of an adaptive management approach to manage the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program through 2034. Implementation of green infrastructure for CSO volume reduction is one of many ways green infrastructure can be strategized for use in urban areas. As a separate entity from the City of St. Louis, MSD's plan highlights the important role that collaboration must have in the implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program. The plan for full implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program was developed with critical consideration of public-private partnerships, support of planned use areas and encouraging development and redevelopment in the City of St. Louis. Found to be effective in the GI Pilot Program, these same strategies are applicable to other communities planning and implementing green infrastructure programs.
Keywords: Adaptive Management Public-Private Partnerships Consent Decree Combined Sewer Overflows Long Term Control Plan Green Infrastructure

Trends in Annual, Seasonal, and Monthly Streamflow Characteristics at 227 Streamgages in the Missouri River Watershed, Water Years 1960–2011 - Norton, Parker A.; Anderson, Mark T.; Stamm, John F. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2014)

Overlooking the coast: Limited local planning for coastal area management along Michigan’s Great Lakes - Norton, Richard K.; David, Nina P.; Buckman, Stephen; Koman, Patricia D. (Land Use Policy, 2018)

Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples: A Synthesis of Current Impacts and Experiences - Norton-Smith, Kathryn; Lynn, Kathy; Chief, Karletta; Cozzetto, Karen; Donatuto, Jamie; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Kruger, Linda E.; Maldonado, Julie; Viles, Carson; Whyte, Kyle P. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 2016)

What is high tide flooding? - NOS (Ocean Facts, 2016)

Land use–land cover changes in the lower eastern shore watersheds and coastal bays of Maryland: 1986–2006 - Nosakhare, Osarodion K.; Aighewi, Isoken T.; Chi, Albert Y.; Ishaque, Ali B.; Mbamalu, Godwin (Journal of Coastal Research, 2012)

Forgotten Grasslands of the South: Natural History and Conservation - Noss, Reed F. (Island Press, 2012)

How global biodiversity hotspots may go unrecognized: Lessons from the North American Coastal Plain - Noss, Reed F.; Platt, William J.; Sorrie, Bruce A.; Weakley, Alan S.; Means, D. Bruce; Costanza, Jennifer; Peet, Robert K. (Diversity and Distributions, 2015)
Keywords: Biodiversity conservation planning endemism hotspot prioritization

Dynamical downscaling–based projections of Great Lakes water levels - Notaro, Michael; Bennington, Val; Lofgren, Brent (Journal of Climate, 2015)
Projections of regional climate, net basin supply (NBS), and water levels are developed for the mid- and late twenty-first century across the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Two state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) are dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RCM) interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model, and then a hydrologic routing model is forced with time series of perturbed NBS. The dynamical downscaling and coupling with a lake model to represent the Great Lakes create added value beyond the parent GCM in terms of simulated seasonal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and surface fluxes. However, limitations related to this rudimentary treatment of the Great Lakes result in warm summer biases in lake temperatures, excessive ice cover, and an abnormally early peak in lake evaporation. While the downscaling of both GCMs led to consistent projections of increases in annual air temperature, precipitation, and all NBS components (overlake precipitation, basinwide runoff, and lake evaporation), the resulting projected water level trends are opposite in sign. Clearly, it is not sufficient to correctly simulate the signs of the projected change in each NBS component; one must also account for their relative magnitudes. The potential risk of more frequent episodes of lake levels below the low water datum, a critical shipping threshold, is explored.
Keywords: Geographic location/entity,Inland seas/lakes,Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena,Freshwater,Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Climate change,Hydrology,Models and modeling,Regional models,Variability,Climate variability

Influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on regional climate - Notaro, Michael; Holman, Kathleen; Zarrin, Azar; Fluck, Elody; Vavrus, Steve; Bennington, Val (Journal of Climate, 2013)
The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on climate is assessed by comparing two decade-long simulations, with the lakes either included or excluded, using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model, version 4. The Great Lakes dampen the variability in near-surface air temperature across the surrounding region while reducing the amplitude of the diurnal cycle and annual cycle of air temperature. The impacts of the Great Lakes on the regional surface energy budget include an increase (decrease) in turbulent fluxes during the cold (warm) season and an increase in surface downward shortwave radiation flux during summer due to diminished atmospheric moisture and convective cloud amount. Changes in the hydrologic budget due to the presence of the Great Lakes include increases in evaporation and precipitation during October–March and decreases during May–August, along with springtime reductions in snowmelt-related runoff. Circulation responses consist of a regionwide decrease in sea level pressure in autumn–winter and an increase in summer, with enhanced ascent and descent in the two seasons, respectively. The most pronounced simulated impact of the Great Lakes on synoptic systems traversing the basin is a weakening of cold-season anticyclones.
Keywords: Lake effects,Regional effects,Climate models,Regional models

Twenty-first-century projections of snowfall and winter severity across central-eastern North America - Notaro, Michael; Lorenz, David; Hoving, Christopher; Schummer, Michael (Journal of Climate, 2014)
The central-eastern North American Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) to develop high-resolution projections of snowfall, snow depth, and winter severity index (WSI) by the middle and late twenty-first century. Here, projections of a cumulative WSI (CWSI) known to influence autumn–winter waterfowl migration are used to demonstrate the utility of SNOW-17 results. The application of statistically downscaled climate data and a snow model leads to a better representation of lake processes in the Great Lakes basin, topographic effects in the Appalachian Mountains, and spatial patterns of climatological snowfall, compared to the original GCMs. Annual mean snowfall is simulated to decline across the region, particularly in early winter (December–January), leading to a delay in the mean onset of the snow season. Because of a warming-induced acceleration of snowmelt, the percentage loss in snow depth exceeds that of snowfall. Across the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC and the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes LCC, daily snowfall events are projected to become less common but more intense. The greatest reductions in the number of days per year with a present snowpack are expected close to the historical position of the −5°C isotherm in December–March, around 44°N. The CWSI is projected to decline substantially during December–January, leading to increased likelihood of delays in timing and intensity of autumn–winter waterfowl migrations.

Projected vegetation changes for the American Southwest: Combined dynamic modeling and bioclimatic‐envelope approach - Notaro, Michael; Mauss, Adrien; Williams, John W (Ecological Applications, 2012)

Projected influences of changes in weather severity on autumn-winter distributions of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic flyways during the twenty-first century - Notaro, Michael; Schummer, Michael; Zhong, Yafang; Vavrus, Stephen; Van Den Elsen, Lena; Coluccy, John; Hoving, Christopher (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration is expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.

Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea-ice retreat - Notz, Dirk; Marotzke, Jochem (Geophysical Research Letters, 2012)
Keywords: anthropogenic climate change attribution measurements sea ice 0750 Sea ice 1616 Climate variability 1621 Cryospheric change

Biochars impact on soil-moisture storage in an Ultisol and two Aridisols - Novak, Jeffrey M.; Busscher, Warren J.; Watts, Donald W.; Amonette, James E.; Ippolito, James A.; Lima, Isabel M.; Gaskin, Julia; Das, K. C.; Steiner, Christoph; Ahmedna, Mohamed; Rehrah, Djaafar; Schomberg, Harry (Soil Science, 2012)
Biochar additions to soils can improve soil-water storage capability; however, there is sparse information identifying feedstocks and pyrolysis conditions that maximize this improvement. Nine biochars were pyrolyzed from five feedstocks at two temperatures, and their physical and chemical properties were characterized. Biochars were mixed at 2% wt wt−1 into a Norfolk loamy sand (Fine-loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Kandiudult), a Declo silt loam (Coarse-loamy, mixed, superactive, mesic xeric Haplocalcid), or a Warden silt loam (Coarse-silty, mixed, superactive, mesic xeric Haplocambid). Untreated soils served as controls. Soils were laboratory incubated in pots for 127 days and were leached about every 30 days with deionized water. Soil bulk densities were measured before each leaching event. For 6 days thereafter, pot-holding capacities (PHC) for water were determined gravimetrically and were used as a surrogate for soil-moisture contents. Water tension curves were also measured on the biochar-treated and untreated Norfolk soil. Biochar surface area, surface tension, ash, C, and Si contents, in general, increased when produced under higher pyrolytic temperatures (≥500°C). Both switchgrass biochars caused the most significant water PHC improvements in the Norfolk, Declo, and Warden soils compared with the controls. Norfolk soil-water tension results at 5 and 60 kPa corroborated that biochar from switchgrass caused the most significant moisture storage improvements. Significant correlation occurred between the PHC for water with soil bulk densities. In general, biochar amendments enhanced the moisture storage capacity of Ultisols and Aridisols, but the effect varied with feedstock selection and pyrolysis temperature.
Keywords: Aridisol biochar GRACEnet soil moisture Ultisol

The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes - Novick, Kimberly A.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Stoy, Paul C.; Williams, Christopher A.; Bohrer, Gil; Oishi, A. Christopher; Papuga, Shirley A.; Blanken, Peter D.; Noormets, Asko; Sulman, Benjamin N.; Scott, Russell L.; Wang, Lixin; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

The demise of fire and “mesophication” of forests in the eastern United States - Nowacki, Gregory J.; Abrams, Marc D. (BioScience, 2008)

Residential building energy conservation and avoided power plant emissions by urban and community trees in the United States - Nowak, David J.; Appleton, Nathaniel; Ellis, Alexis; Greenfield, Eric (Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 2017)
Keywords: Air quality Ecosystem services Energy use Pollutant emissions Urban forestry

Tree and impervious cover change in US cities - Nowak, D.J.; Greenfield, E.J. (Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 2012)
Keywords: added by ERG

Carbon storage and sequestration by trees in urban and community areas of the United States - Nowak, David J.; Greenfield, Eric J.; Hoehn, Robert E.; Lapoint, Elizabeth (Environmental Pollution, 2013)
Keywords: Ecosystem services Global climate change Urban forestry Tree cover Forest inventory

Tree and forest effects on air quality and human health in the United States - Nowak, David J.; Hirabayashi, Satoshi; Bodine, Allison; Greenfield, Eric (Environmental Pollution, 2014)
Keywords: Air pollution removal Air quality Ecosystem services Human mortality Urban forests

Urban Trees and Forests of the Chicago Region - Nowak, David J.; Hoehn III, Robert E.; Bodine, Allison R.; Crane, Daniel E.; Dwyer, John F.; Bonnewell, Veta; Watson, Gary (USDA, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 2013)

National Park Service Climate Change Response Strategy - NPS (U.S. National Park Service Climate Change Response Program, 2010)

Catoctin Mountain Park Resource Stewardship Strategy - NPS (U.S. Departmentt of the Interior, National Park Service (NPS), 2013)

Relocate Hurricane Sandy Damaged Maintenance Facilities to More Sustainable Locations - NPS (Environmental Assessment, 2016)

Wolf Restoration [web page] - NPS (National Park Service (NPS), 2017)

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation. Special Report 290 - NRC (Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Committee on Twenty-First Century Systems Agriculture. The National Academies Press, 2008)

Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate - NRC (National Research Council, Panel on Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. National Academies Press, 2009)

Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change. America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change - NRC (National Research Council, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Academies Press, 2010)

America’s Climate Choices - NRC (National Research Council. The National Academies Press, 2011)

Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative - NRC (National Academies Press, 2012)

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises - NRC (The National Academies Press, 2013)
Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain -- there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.
Keywords: Earth Sciences

Plant profile: Allium tricoccum Aiton ramp - NRCS (USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), 2017)

Distributed Solar PV for Electricity System Resiliency: Policy and Regulatory Considerations - NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2014)

Sea ice index - NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), 2017)

Culturally grounded responses to coastal change on islands in the Federated States of Micronesia, northwest Pacific Ocean - Nunn, Patrick D.; Runman, John; Falanruw, Margie; Kumar, Roselyn (Regional Environmental Change, 2016)
The characterization of Pacific Islands as especially vulnerable to climate change often undervalues the cultural resilience of their inhabitants. On many Micronesian islands, coastal stone-built structures are the most visible type of tangible cultural resilience and have endured for perhaps 1000 years or more. A distinction is recognized between older structures, likely built in response to sea-level rise during the Medieval Warm Period (AD 750–1250), and more recent structures that likely took advantage of the lowered sea level during the Little Ice Age (AD 1350–1800). Detailed studies of Micronesian responses to recent coastal change were undertaken in the islands of Yap (Proper). The positioning and maintenance of coastal men’s houses (faluw) reflect either pragmatic responses to unmanageable coastal change or a cultural determination to resist this. The long history of traditional responses to climate variability and coastal change for terrestrial food production on Yap is also discussed. Future adaptation pathways on Yap and other higher islands in Micronesia need to combine scientific knowledge of climate change with traditional responses to historical change, including the stonework tradition and the cultural determination to resist undesired coastal change.

Small islands - Nurse, L. A.; McLean, R. F.; Agard, J.; Briguglio, L. P.; Duvat-Magnan, V.; Pelesikoti, N.; Tompkins, E.; Webb, A. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 2014)

ʻAimalama: E Mauliauhonua—Readapting to Ancestral Knowledge for Survival - Nuuhiwa, Kalei; Lilly, Olani; Nobrega-Olivera, Malia; Huihui, Micky (LAMA & Kama‘aha Education Initiative, 2016)

Seventh Northwest Conservation and Electic Power Plan - NW Council (Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NW Council), 2016)

The Missouri/Souris River Floods of May–August 2011 - NWS (NOAA National Weather Service, 2012)

Rainfall Record San Juan: Tropical Wave Brought New Climate Records - NWS (NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), 2013)

The Historic South Carolina Floods of October 1–5, 2015 - NWS (NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), 2016)

Major Hurricane Maria - September 20, 2017 - NWS (NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), 2017)

Detailed Meteorological Summary on Hurricane Irma [web page] - NWS (NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), 2017)

NWS Forecast Office: Anchorage, AK - NWS (NOAA National Weather Service, 2017)

What Are Heating and Cooling Degree Days [web page] - NWS (NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), 2018)

Average Rainfall Statistics: San Juan, PR - NWS (NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), 2018)

2017 Summary of Hazardous Weather Fatalities, Injuries, and Damage Costs by State - NWS (NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), 2018)

Build Back Better: Reimagining and Strengthening the Power Grid of Puerto Rico - NY Power Authority; Puerto Rico Electic Power Authority; Others (2017)

Climate Resiliency Design Guidelines. Version 2.0 - NYC Mayor’s Office of Recovery and Resiliency (Mayor’s Office of Recovery and Resiliency, 2018)

Why Plant Trees? - NYC Parks (New York City Parks, 2017)

Changing spatial distribution of fish stocks in relation to climate and population size on the Northeast United States continental shelf - Nye, J.A.; Link, J.S.; Hare, J.A.; Overholtz, W.J. (Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2009)

Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990–2009 - O’Loughlin, John; Witmer, Frank D. W.; Linke, Andrew M.; Laing, Arlene; Gettelman, Andrew; Dudhia, Jimy (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2012)
Recent studies concerning the possible relationship between climate trends and the risks of violent conflict have yielded contradictory results, partly because of choices of conflict measures and modeling design. In this study, we examine climate–conflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for East Africa from 1990 to 2009. Unlike previous studies that relied exclusively on political and economic controls, we analyze the many geographical factors that have been shown to be important in understanding the distribution and causes of violence while also considering yearly and country fixed effects. For our main climate indicators at gridded 1° resolution (∼100 km), wetter deviations from the precipitation norms decrease the risk of violence, whereas drier and normal periods show no effects. The relationship between temperature and conflict shows that much warmer than normal temperatures raise the risk of violence, whereas average and cooler temperatures have no effect. These precipitation and temperature effects are statistically significant but have modest influence in terms of predictive power in a model with political, economic, and physical geographic predictors. Large variations in the climate–conflict relationships are evident between the nine countries of the study region and across time periods.

Assessing streamflow sensitivity to variations in glacier mass balance - O’Neel, Shad; Hood, Eran; Arendt, Anthony; Sass, Louis (Climatic Change, 2014)

The rise of harmful cyanobacteria blooms: The potential roles of eutrophication and climate change - O’Neil, J. M.; Davis, T. W.; Burford, M. A.; Gobler, C. J. (Harmful Algae, 2012)
Keywords: Climate change Cyanobacteria CyanoHABs Eutrophication Harmful algae blooms Toxins

A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways - O’Neill, Brian C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Ebi, Kristie L.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Carter, Timothy R.; Mathur, Ritu; van Vuuren, Detlef P. (Climatic Change, 2014)
The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.

The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis - O’Neill, Brian C.; M. Done, James; Gettelman, Andrew; Lawrence, Peter; Lehner, Flavio; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Lei; J. Monaghan, Andrew; Oleson, Keith; Ren, Xiaolin; M. Sanderson, Benjamin; Tebaldi, Claudia; et al. (Climatic Change, 2017)
Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.

Institutions, climate change and cultural theory: Towards a common analytical framework - O’Riordan, Timothy; Jordan, Andrew (Global Environmental Change, 1999)
Keywords: Institutions Cultural theory New institutionalism Climate change Policy

Performance of precision mobile drip irrigation in the Texas High Plains region - O’Shaughnessy, Susan A.; Colaizzi, Paul D. (Agronomy, 2017)

Site-specific variable-rate irrigation as a means to enhance water use efficiency - O’Shaughnessy, Susan A; Evett, Steven R.; Andrade, Alejandro; Workneh, Fekede; Price, Jacob A.; Rush, Charles M. (Transactions of the ASABE, 2016)
The majority of irrigated cropland in the U.S. is watered with sprinkler irrigation systems. These systems are inherently more efficient in distributing water than furrow or flood irrigation. Appropriate system design of sprinkler irrigation equipment, application methods, and farming practices (e.g., furrow diking) enhance crop water use efficiency (WUE) by minimizing irrigation losses and improving soil water storage. For years, the paradigm for best irrigation management practices included uniform application over an entire field, even though abiotic (soils, slope, aspect, etc.) and biotic (insect pressure, plant disease) factors often cause spatial variations in water use and yield potential. However, emerging technologies such as wireless communication coupled with soil water and plant sensors, commercially available variable-rate irrigation (VRI) equipment, and the development of algorithms for computational data processing are shifting this paradigm toward variable-rate management as a means to enhance crop WUE. This article focuses on the potential of site-specific VRI management (SS-VRIM) as a tool for enhancing WUE and the challenges encountered.
Keywords: Irrigation management Moving irrigation systems Prescription maps Sensor networks Variable-rate irrigation.

How Tillamook Weathered the Storm: A Case Study on Creating Climate Resilience on Oregon’s North Coast - ODOT; OHA (Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) and Oregon Health Authority (OHA), 2016)

The Economic Consequences of Climate Change - OECD (OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Publishing, 2015)

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - OECD; Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (OECD Publishing, 2017)

C-CAP FTP Tool: An interface for downloading land cover data - Office for Coastal Management (NOAA National Ocean Service, 2018)

2016 Columbia River Basin Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast - Office of Columbia River (Washington State Department of Ecology, 2016)

Isle de Jean Charles Resettlement Project - Office of Community Development (State of Louisiana, 2018)

Definitions of Insular Area Political Organizations [web site] - Office of Insular Affairs (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2018)

Letter to Honorable Michael R. Pence, October 4, 2017 - Office of Management and Budget (Executive Office of the President, 2017)

Preparing for Climate Change - Office of Sustainability & Environment (2017)

Effects of climate and climate change on vectors and vector-borne diseases: Ticks are different - Ogden, Nick H.; Lindsay, L. Robbin (Trends in Parasitology, 2016)

Predicting the rate of invasion of the agent of Lyme disease Borrelia burgdorferi - Ogden, Nicholas H.; Lindsay, L. Robbin; Leighton, Patrick A. (Journal of Applied Ecology, 2013)
Keywords: Borrelia burgdorferi emerging infectious disease invasion Ixodes scapularis surveillance

Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis - Ogden, Nicholas H.; Radojević, Milka; Wu, Xiaotian; Duvvuri, Venkata R.; Leighton, Patrick A.; Wu, Jianhong (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2014)
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Soil suitability index identifies potential areas for groundwater banking on agricultural lands - O'Geen, A. T.; Saal, Matthew B. B.; Dahlke, Helen E.; Doll, David A.; Elkins, Rachel B.; Fulton, Allan; Fogg, Graham E.; Harter, Thomas; Hopmans, Jan W.; Ingels, Chuck; Niederholzer, Franz J.; Sandoval Solis, Samuel; et al. (California Agriculture, 2015)
Groundwater pumping chronically exceeds natural recharge in many agricultural regions in California. A common method of recharging groundwater — when surface water is available — is to deliberately flood an open area, allowing water to percolate into an aquifer. However, open land suitable for this type of recharge is scarce. Flooding agricultural land during fallow or dormant periods has the potential to increase groundwater recharge substantially, but this approach has not been well studied. Using data on soils, topography and crop type, we developed a spatially explicit index of the suitability for groundwater recharge of land in all agricultural regions in California. We identified 3.6 million acres of agricultural land statewide as having Excellent or Good potential for groundwater recharge. The index provides preliminary guidance about the locations where groundwater recharge on agricultural land is likely to be feasible. A variety of institutional, infrastructure and other issues must also be addressed before this practice can be implemented widely.

Interannual bumble bee abundance is driven by indirect climate effects on floral resource phenology - Ogilvie, Jane E.; Griffin, Sean R.; Gezon, Zachariah J.; Inouye, Brian D.; Underwood, Nora; Inouye, David W.; Irwin, Rebecca E. (Ecology Letters, 2017)
Climate change can influence consumer populations both directly, by affecting survival and reproduction, and indirectly, by altering resources. However, little is known about the relative importance of direct and indirect effects, particularly for species important to ecosystem functioning, like pollinators. We used structural equation modelling to test the importance of direct and indirect (via floral resources) climate effects on the interannual abundance of three subalpine bumble bee species. In addition, we used long‐term data to examine how climate and floral resources have changed over time. Over 8 years, bee abundances were driven primarily by the indirect effects of climate on the temporal distribution of floral resources. Over 43 years, aspects of floral phenology changed in ways that indicate species‐specific effects on bees. Our study suggests that climate‐driven alterations in floral resource phenology can play a critical role in governing bee population responses to global change.

Oyate Omniciyé: Oglala Lakota Plan. The Official Regional Sustainable Development Plan of the Oglala Sioux Tribe - Oglala Lakota Nation (Oyate Omniciye Consortium and Steering Committee, 2012)

The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change - O'Gorman, Paul A.; Schneider, Tapio (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009)
Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change.

A scalable model for methane consumption in Arctic mineral soils - Oh, Youmi; Stackhouse, Brandon; Lau, Maggie C. Y.; Xu, Xiangtao; Trugman, Anna T.; Moch, Jonathan; Onstott, Tullis C.; Jørgensen, Christian J.; D'Imperio, Ludovica; Elberling, Bo; Emmerton, Craig A.; St. Louis, Vincent L.; et al. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: methane models arctic terrestrial methane sink high-affinity methanotrophy microbial biomass changes mineral cryosols 0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 0438 Diel, seasonal, and annual cycles 0466 Modeling 0475 Permafrost, cryosphere, and high-latitude processes 0490 Trace gases

Silviculture in an uncertain world: Utilizing multi-aged management systems to integrate disturbance - O'Hara, Kevin L.; Ramage, Benjamin S. (Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research, 2013)
Forest management faces an uncertain future with changing climates and disturbance regimes. Multi-aged forest management systems represent a promising approach for increasing resistance and resilience, thereby limiting major disruptions to timber production and other ecosystem services. Multi-aged stands inherently have greater resistance and resilience to disturbances because of the presence of several age classes and more potential pathways for post-disturbance management and recovery. The preponderance of research also indicates few differences in productivity between multi-aged and even-aged management strategies. These factors combined suggest that increased adoption of multi-aged management systems will lead to a reduction in long-term risks. We advocate a disturbance integration management strategy that encourages managers to emulate disturbance effects with management, anticipate disturbances in planning, integrate the management of residual stand structures into salvage operations and build variable treatment intervals or cutting cycles into management regimes.

When phenology matters: Age–size truncation alters population response to trophic mismatch - Ohlberger, Jan; Thackeray, Stephen J.; Winfield, Ian J.; Maberly, Stephen C.; Vøllestad, L. Asbjørn (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2014)
Climate-induced shifts in the timing of life-history events are a worldwide phenomenon, and these shifts can de-synchronize species interactions such as predator–prey relationships. In order to understand the ecological implications of altered seasonality, we need to consider how shifts in phenology interact with other agents of environmental change such as exploitation and disease spread, which commonly act to erode the demographic structure of wild populations. Using long-term observational data on the phenology and dynamics of a model predator–prey system (fish and zooplankton in Windermere, UK), we show that age–size truncation of the predator population alters the consequences of phenological mismatch for offspring survival and population abundance. Specifically, age–size truncation reduces intraspecific density regulation due to competition and cannibalism, and thereby amplifies the population sensitivity to climate-induced predator–prey asynchrony, which increases variability in predator abundance. High population variability poses major ecological and economic challenges as it can diminish sustainable harvest rates and increase the risk of population collapse. Our results stress the importance of maintaining within-population age–size diversity in order to buffer populations against phenological asynchrony, and highlight the need to consider interactive effects of environmental impacts if we are to understand and project complex ecological outcomes.

Great Plains Regional Technical Input Report - Ojima, Dennis; Steiner, Jean; McNeeley, Shannon; Cozzetto, Karen; Childress, Amber (Island Press, 2015)

Risk assessment - Ojima, Dennis S.; Iverson, Louis R.; Sohngen, Brent L.; Vose, James M.; Woodall, Christopher W.; Domke, Grant M.; Peterson, David L.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Peters, Matthew P.; Yohe, Gary W.; et al. (Climate Change and United States Forests, 2014)

Species-specific responses to climate change and community composition determine future calcification rates of Florida Keys reefs - Okazaki, Remy R.; Towle, Erica K.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Mor, Carolina; Winter, Rivah N.; Piggot, Alan M.; Cunning, Ross; Baker, Andrew C.; Klaus, James S.; Swart, Peter K.; Langdon, Chris (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: biomineralization calcification climate change coral reefs dissolution Florida Reef Tract ocean acidification precipitation scleractinia warming

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii - Oki, Delwyn S. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2004)

Hawaii - Oki, Delwyn S.; Gingerich, Stephen B.; Whitehead, R. L. (Ground Water Atlas of the United States, Segment 13, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, 1999)

Record flooding wreaks road havoc - Oklahoma Department of Transportation (ODOT: Flooding 2015, 2015)

Native American Water and Food Security Research - Oklahoma NSF EPSCoR (2016 Tribal College Conference Series on Climate Change, 2016)

Environmental Risks: Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on US State and Local Issuers - Okuji, Kelli; Wertz, Michael; Kurtz, Kenneth; Jones, Leonard (Moody's Investor Service, 2017)