Appendix A. Wetland losses by state in the United States, 1780s–1980s - Mitsch, William J.; Gosselink, James G. (Wetlands, 2015)

Genetic engineering for modern agriculture: Challenges and perspectives - Mittler, Ron; Blumwald, Eduardo (Annual Review of Plant Biology, 2010)
Abiotic stress conditions such as drought, heat, or salinity cause extensive losses to agricultural production worldwide. Progress in generating transgenic crops with enhanced tolerance to abiotic stresses has nevertheless been slow. The complex field environment with its heterogenic conditions, abiotic stress combinations, and global climatic changes are but a few of the challenges facing modern agriculture. A combination of approaches will likely be needed to significantly improve the abiotic stress tolerance of crops in the field. These will include mechanistic understanding and subsequent utilization of stress response and stress acclimation networks, with careful attention to field growth conditions, extensive testing in the laboratory, greenhouse, and the field; the use of innovative approaches that take into consideration the genetic background and physiology of different crops; the use of enzymes and proteins from other organisms; and the integration of QTL mapping and other genetic and breeding tools.
Keywords: abiotic stress,climate change,field conditions,global warming,stress combination,stress tolerance,transgenic crops

Dynamics of internal carbon resources during masting behavior in trees - Miyazaki, Yuko (Ecological Research, 2013)
Several proximate factors of masting have been provided. Here, I focus on the role of internal factors, especially the relationship between internal carbon resources and modular structures in trees. I summarize various studies of carbon resource allocation for reproduction during masting events in terms of the proximate factors of masting and discuss the modular structure in which trees accumulate and consume carbon resources as well as the timing when internal carbon resources affect masting since trees have complex resource dynamics among organs. The resource budget model, which provides a simple mechanistic explanation of the masting mechanism, is supported by various study lines. This model assumes decreasing levels of stored photosynthate after flowering and fruiting. According to several studies, however, carbon reserves do not decrease after fruiting in species in which the modules autonomously allocate current photosynthate for fruiting. In addition, it is important to elucidate when carbon resources affect masting events because during their long developmental processes, trees pass through various stages until they produce maturing fruits to create successful masting events. To explore the mechanisms of masting in future studies, it would be important to figure out how and when candidate factors (including nutrients other than carbon) may influence the entire reproduction process, for example, using field manipulation experiments.

Ecological goods and services of coral reef ecosystems - Moberg, Fredrik; Folke, Carl (Ecological Economics, 1999)
Keywords: Coral reefs Ecological services Management Biodiversity Resilience Valuation

Ecosystem services of the tropical seascape: Interactions, substitutions and restoration - Moberg, Fredrik; Rönnbäck, Patrik (Ocean & Coastal Management, 2003)
The tropical coastal “seascape” often includes a patchwork of mangroves, seagrass beds, and coral reefs that produces a variety of natural resources and ecosystem services. By looking into a limited number of attempts at substitution and restoration of ecosystem services (e.g. artificial reefs, aquaculture in mangroves, artificial seawalls), we address the questions: (1) To what degree can technologies substitute for ecosystem services in the seascape? (2) How can ecosystem restoration reestablish not only the functions of direct value to humans, but also the ability of the systems to cope with future disturbance? Substitutions often imply the replacement of a function provided free by a solar powered, self-repairing resilient ecosystem, with a fossil-fuel-powered, expensive, artificial substitute that needs maintenance. Further, restoration usually does not focus on large-scale processes such as the physical, biological and biogeochemical interactions between mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs. Nonetheless, restoration might be the only viable management alternative when the system is essentially locked into an undesired community state (stability domain) after a phase-shift. We conclude that ecosystem services cannot be readily replaced, restored or sustained without extensive knowledge of the dynamics, multifunctionality and interconnectedness of ecosystems.

Revisiting the "disaster and development" debate—Toward a broader understanding of macroeconomic risk and resilience - Mochizuki, Junko; Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Keating, Adriana; Williges, Keith (Climate Risk Management, 2014)
Keywords: Review Natural disasters and development Macroeconomic and statistical analysis Risk vulnerability and resilience

Total environment of change: Impacts of climate change and social transitions on subsistence fisheries in northwest Alaska - Moerlein, Katie J.; Carothers, Courtney (Ecology and Society, 2012)

Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change - Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L−1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future - Moftakhari, Hamed R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Feldman, David L.; Sweet, William; Matthew, Richard A.; Luke, Adam (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: nuisance flooding sea level rise coastal region climate change impacts socio-economic threat 1821 Floods 4217 Coastal processes 4215 Climate and interannual variability 4304 Oceanic 4556 Sea level: variations and mean

Cumulative hazard: The case of nuisance flooding - Moftakhari, Hamed R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Matthew, Richard A. (Earth's Future, 2017)
The cumulative cost of frequent events (e.g., nuisance floods) over time may exceed the costs of the extreme but infrequent events for which societies typically prepare. Here we analyze the likelihood of exceedances above mean higher high water and the corresponding property value exposure for minor, major, and extreme coastal floods. Our results suggest that, in response to sea level rise, nuisance flooding (NF) could generate property value exposure comparable to, or larger than, extreme events. Determining whether (and when) low cost, nuisance incidents aggregate into high cost impacts and deciding when to invest in preventive measures are among the most difficult decisions for policymakers. It would be unfortunate if efforts to protect societies from extreme events (e.g., 0.01 annual probability) left them exposed to a cumulative hazard with enormous costs. We propose a Cumulative Hazard Index (CHI) as a tool for framing the future cumulative impact of low cost incidents relative to infrequent extreme events. CHI suggests that in New York, NY, Washington, DC, Miami, FL, San Francisco, CA, and Seattle, WA, a careful consideration of socioeconomic impacts of NF for prioritization is crucial for sustainable coastal flood risk management.

Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding - Moftakhari, Hamed R.; Salvadori, Gianfausto; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Matthew, Richard A. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from multiple drivers (e.g., extreme coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow). Here, we propose a bivariate flood hazard assessment approach that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and we show that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects. Using copulas and bivariate dependence analysis, we also quantify the increases in failure probabilities for 2030 and 2050 caused by SLR under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, the increase in failure probability is shown to be strongly affected by compounding effects. The proposed failure probability method offers an innovative tool for assessing compounding flood hazards in a warming climate.

American Indians/Alaska Natives and cardiovascular disease: Outcomes, interventions, and areas of opportunity - Mohammed, Selina A.; Udell, Wadiya (Current Cardiovascular Risk Reports, 2017)
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a reported leading cause of death among American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) and takes a disproportionate toll on these populations. Using the electronic database PubMed, the purpose of this review is to summarize findings from CVD morbidity/mortality outcome studies, as well as CVD and CVD risk factor intervention studies among AI/ANs, published in 2014 and 2015.

Biomass and toxicity responses of poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans) to elevated atmospheric CO2 - Mohan, Jacqueline E.; Ziska, Lewis H.; Schlesinger, William H.; Thomas, Richard B.; Sicher, Richard C.; George, Kate; Clark, James S. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2006)
Contact with poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans) is one of the most widely reported ailments at poison centers in the United States, and this plant has been introduced throughout the world, where it occurs with other allergenic members of the cashew family (Anacardiaceae). Approximately 80% of humans develop dermatitis upon exposure to the carbon-based active compound, urushiol. It is not known how poison ivy might respond to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but previous work done in controlled growth chambers shows that other vines exhibit large growth enhancement from elevated CO2. Rising CO2 is potentially responsible for the increased vine abundance that is inhibiting forest regeneration and increasing tree mortality around the world. In this 6-year study at the Duke University Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiment, we show that elevated atmospheric CO2 in an intact forest ecosystem increases photosynthesis, water use efficiency, growth, and population biomass of poison ivy. The CO2 growth stimulation exceeds that of most other woody species. Furthermore, high-CO2 plants produce a more allergenic form of urushiol. Our results indicate that Toxicodendron taxa will become more abundant and more “toxic” in the future, potentially affecting global forest dynamics and human health.

Wave attenuation over coastal salt marshes under storm surge conditions - Möller, Iris; Kudella, Matthias; Rupprecht, Franziska; Spencer, Tom; Paul, Maike; van Wesenbeeck, Bregje K.; Wolters, Guido; Jensen, Kai; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Miranda-Lange, Martin; Schimmels, Stefan (Nature Geoscience, 2014)

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size - Molnár, Peter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A. (Nature Communications, 2011)

Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States - Monaghan, A.J.; Moore, S.M.; Sampson, K.M.; Beard, C.B.; Eisen, R.J. (Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases, 2015)

On the seasonal occurrence and abundance of the Zika virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in the contiguous United States - Monaghan, Andrew J.; Morin, Cory W.; Steinhoff, Daniel F.; Wilhelmi, Olga; Hayden, Mary; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Reiskind, Michael; Lloyd, Alun L; Smith, Kirk; Schmidt, Chris A.; Scalf, Paige E.; Ernst, Kacey (Plos Currents: Outbreaks, 2016)

The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti - Monaghan, Andrew J.; Sampson, K. M.; Steinhoff, D. F.; Ernst, K. C.; Ebi, K. L.; Jones, B.; Hayden, M. H. (Climatic Change, 2016)
The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever. We investigate how choosing alternate emissions and/or socioeconomic pathways may modulate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti. Occurrence patterns for Ae. aegypti for 2061–2080 are mapped globally using empirically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Population growth is quantified using gridded global population projections consistent with two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Change scenarios are compared to a 1950–2000 reference period. A global land area of 56.9 M km2 is climatically suitable for Ae. aegypti during the reference period, and is projected to increase by 8 % (RCP4.5) to 13 % (RCP8.5) by 2061–2080. The annual average number of people exposed globally to Ae. aegypti for the reference period is 3794 M, a value projected to statistically significantly increase by 298–460 M (8–12 %) by 2061–2080 if only climate change is considered, and by 4805–5084 M (127–134 %) for SSP3 and 2232–2483 M (59–65 %) for SSP5 considering both climate and population change (lower and upper values of each range represent RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively). Thus, taking the lower-emissions RCP4.5 pathway instead of RCP8.5 may mitigate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti globally, but the effect of population growth on exposure will likely be larger. Regionally, Australia, Europe and North America are projected to have the largest percentage increases in human exposure to Ae. aegypti considering only climate change.

More ‘crop per drop’: Constraints and opportunities for precision irrigation in European agriculture - Monaghan, James M; Daccache, Andre; Vickers, Laura H; Hess, Tim M; Weatherhead, E Keith; Grove, Ivan G; Knox, Jerry W (Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 2013)
Dwindling water supplies, increasing drought frequency and uncertainties associated with a changing climate mean Europe's irrigated agriculture sector needs to improve water efficiency and produce more 'crop per drop'. This paper summarizes the drivers for change, and the constraints and opportunities for improving agricultural water management through uptake of precision irrigation technologies. A multi‐disciplinary and integrated approach involving irrigation engineers, soil scientists, agronomists and plant physiologists will be needed if the potential for precision irrigation within the field crop sector is to be realized. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system - Monahan, William B.; Rosemartin, Alyssa; Gerst, Katharine L.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ault, Toby; Schwartz, Mark D.; Gross, John E.; Weltzin, Jake F. (Ecosphere, 2016)
Keywords: climate change landscape context monitoring national parks phenology protected areas Special Feature: Science for Our National Parks' Second Century spring index United States

Optimal risk-based management of coastal bridges vulnerable to hurricanes - Mondoro, Alysson; Frangopol, Dan M.; Soliman, Mohamed (Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2017)
This paper proposes an approach for developing optimal risk-based management strategies for bridges in coastal regions. Currently, bridge management strategies in these regions are designed to limit the negative effects corrosion has on bridge performance under traffic loads. However, recent large-scale hurricanes and their associated damage to bridges have demonstrated the need to consider hurricanes when making bridge management decisions. This paper aims to develop optimal risk-based management strategies that include both repair actions to address deteriorating performance under traffic loads and retrofit actions to minimize the potential for failure during hurricanes. The proposed approach considers the uncertainties associated with hazards, and the economic, social, and environmental consequences of failure under traffic loads and hurricanes. The optimal management strategies are achieved by formulating and solving a multiobjective optimization problem. The objectives of this optimization problem include minimizing the lifecycle costs accrued due to repair and retrofit actions and minimizing the maximum risk over the lifecycle of the bridge. The proposed risk-based approach is applied to a steel girder bridge located in a hurricane-prone region.

2015 Cost of Wind Energy Review - Mone, Christopher; Hand, Maureen; Bolinger, Mark; Rand, Joseph; Heimiller, Donna; Ho, Jonathan (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2017)

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: An uncertainty analysis - Monier, Erwan; Gao, Xiang (Climatic Change, 2015)
In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model–Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.

Characterizing predictability of fire occurrence in tropical forests and grasslands: The case of Puerto Rico - Monmany, Ana Carolina; Gould, William A.; Andrade-Núñez, María José; González, Grizelle; Quiñones, Maya (Forest Ecology and Conservation, 2017)

Limits to autonomous adaptation in response to coastal erosion in Kosrae, Micronesia - Monnereau, Iris; Abraham, Simpson (International Journal of Global Warming, 2013)
Small-island developing states (SIDS) are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise and extreme weather events. Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate coastal erosion. Adaptation measures in response to this in SIDS have the potential to reduce some of the adverse impacts, yet they have limitations. This article addresses the degree to which households on the island of Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), are affected by coastal erosion, the autonomous adaptation measures they have implemented, the limitations thereof, and the loss and damage incurred as a result. This analysis is based on quantitative and qualitative data. We found that 70% of the 363 households we interviewed experienced adverse effects of coastal erosion. Of those suffering from impacts, 60% carried out adaptation measures. Yet, 92% of those respondents who carried out adaptation measures indicated that these measures were insufficient, resulting in loss and damage to livelihoods, housing and culture. This empirical case study contributes to the critical debate on the impacts of climate change beyond adaptation.

Impacts of climate change on fisheries in the coastal and marine environments of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) - Monnereau, Iris; Oxenford, Hazel A. (CME Caribbean Marine Climate Change Report Card 2017: Science Review 2017, 2017)

Climate change and Yakama Nation tribal well-being - Montag, J. M.; Swan, K.; Jenni, K.; Nieman, T.; Hatten, J.; Mesa, M.; Graves, D.; Voss, F.; Mastin, M.; Hardiman, J.; Maule, A. (Climatic Change, 2014)
The Yakima River Basin (Basin) in south-central Washington is a prime example of a place where competing water uses, coupled with over-allocation of water resources, have presented water managers with the challenge of meeting current demand, anticipating future demand, and preparing for potential impacts of climate change. We took a decision analysis approach that gathered diverse stakeholders to discuss their concerns pertaining to climate change effects on the Basin and future goals that were collectively important. One main focus was centered on how climate change may influence future salmon populations. Salmon have played a prominent role in the cultures of Basin communities, especially for tribal communities that have social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic ties to them. Stakeholders identified the need for a better understanding on how the cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic aspects of the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation could be affected by changes in salmon populations. In an attempt to understand the complexities of these potential effects, this paper proposes a conceptual model which 1) identifies cultural values and components and the interactions between those components that could influence tribal well-being, and 2) shows how federal natural resource managers could incorporate intangible tribal cultural components into decision-making processes by understanding important components of tribal well-being. Future work includes defining the parameterization of the cultural components in order for the conceptual model to be incorporated with biophysical resource models for scenario simulations.

Sex determination in southern flounder, Paralichthys lethostigma, from the Texas Gulf Coast - Montalvo, Avier J.; Faulk, Cynthia K.; Holt, G. Joan (Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 2012)
Keywords: Aromatase cytochrome P450 Sex determination

A Workplan for Drought Resilience in the Missouri Headwaters Basin. A National Demonstration Project - Montana Drought Demonstration Partners (Montana Department of Natural Resources, 2015)

Yellowstone River Fish Kill Fact Sheet—Updated Sept. 22, 2016 - Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks (Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks, 2016)

The net carbon drawdown of small scale afforestation from satellite observations - Montenegro, Alvaro; Eby, Michael; Mu, Qiaozhen; Mulligan, Mark; Weaver, Andrew J; Wiebe, Edward C; Zhao, Maosheng (Global and Planetary Change, 2009)

Water banks: What have we learnt from the international experience? - Montilla-López, Nazaret M.; Gutiérrez-Martín, Carlos; Gómez-Limón, José A. (Water, 2016)

Environmental Risks—Sovereigns: How Moody’s Assesses the Physical Effects of Climate Change on Sovereign Issuers - Moody's (Moody's Investor's Services, 2016)

Environmental Risks: Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on US State and Local Issuers - Moody's (Moody's Investor Services, 2017)

Ocean acidification: A global issue affecting a Maine oyster farm - Mook, Bill; Salisbury, Joe (Earthzine, 2015)

Watershed export events and ecosystem responses in the Mission–Aransas National Estuarine Research Reserve, South Texas - Mooney, Rae F.; McClelland, James W. (Estuaries and Coasts, 2012)
While inputs from land are recognized as important resources supporting production in estuaries, the role that storm events play in resource delivery and the response of estuarine systems to pulsed inputs are less well appreciated. Temporal variations in (1) watershed export via the Mission and Aransas rivers and (2) nutrient and organic matter dynamics in Copano Bay were examined in the Mission–Aransas National Estuarine Research Reserve, south Texas. Inorganic nutrient, dissolved organic matter (DOM), and particulate organic matter (POM) concentrations in the rivers varied substantially with discharge, as did carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios of POM. Accounting for these variations was critical for calculating robust watershed export estimates. In Copano Bay, soluble reactive phosphorus, POM, and DOM remained elevated for several months following major runoff events, whereas inorganic nitrogen was rapidly depleted. Chlorophyll-a concentrations and POC-δ13C in Copano Bay showed that increased POM concentrations were linked to enhanced in situ production.

Physical processes associated with heavy flooding rainfall in Nashville, Tennessee, and vicinity during 1–2 May 2010: The role of an atmospheric river and mesoscale convective systems - Moore, Benjamin J.; Neiman, Paul J.; Ralph, F. Martin; Barthold, Faye E. (Monthly Weather Review, 2012)
A multiscale analysis is conducted in order to examine the physical processes that resulted in prolonged heavy rainfall and devastating flash flooding across western and central Tennessee and Kentucky on 1–2 May 2010, during which Nashville, Tennessee, received 344.7 mm of rainfall and incurred 11 flood-related fatalities. On the synoptic scale, heavy rainfall was supported by a persistent corridor of strong water vapor transport rooted in the tropics that was manifested as an atmospheric river (AR). This AR developed as water vapor was extracted from the eastern tropical Pacific and the Caribbean Sea and transported into the central Mississippi Valley by a strong southerly low-level jet (LLJ) positioned between a stationary lee trough along the eastern Mexico coast and a broad, stationary subtropical ridge positioned over the southeastern United States and the subtropical Atlantic. The AR, associated with substantial water vapor content and moderate convective available potential energy, supported the successive development of two quasi-stationary mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) on 1 and 2 May, respectively. These MCSs were both linearly organized and exhibited back-building and echo-training, processes that afforded the repeated movement of convective cells over the same area of western and central Tennessee and Kentucky, resulting in a narrow band of rainfall totals of 200–400 mm. Mesoscale analyses reveal that the MCSs developed on the warm side of a slow-moving cold front and that the interaction between the southerly LLJ and convectively generated outflow boundaries was fundamental for generating convection.
Keywords: Mesoscale processes,Extreme events,Flood events,Rainfall,Moisture/moisture budget,Mesoscale forecasting

Tree mortality from an exceptional drought spanning mesic to semiarid ecoregions - Moore, Georgianne W.; Edgar, Christopher B.; Vogel, Jason G.; Washington-Allen, Robert A.; March, Rosaleen G; Zehnder, Rebekah (Ecological Applications, 2016)
Keywords: acute drought impact Central North America dead carbon pool forest structure Texas, USA tree death

Tree mortality from an exceptional drought spanning mesic to semiarid ecoregions - Moore, Georgianne W.; Edgar, Christopher B.; Vogel, Jason G.; Washington-Allen, Robert A.; March, Rosaleen G; Zehnder, Rebekah (Ecological Applications, 2016)
Keywords: acute drought impact Central North America dead carbon pool forest structure Texas, USA tree death

High River Water Creates Navigation Turmoil - Moore, Kirk (WorkBoat.com, 2016)

Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR) in marine ecosystems of the Pacific Arctic - Moore, Sue E.; Stabeno, Phyllis J. (Progress in Oceanography, 2015)

Present-day and future climate pathways affecting Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound, WA, USA - Moore, Stephanie K.; Johnstone, James A.; Banas, Neil S.; Jr., Eric P. Salathé (Harmful Algae, 2015)

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health - Moore, Stephanie K.; Trainer, Vera L.; Mantua, Nathan J.; Parker, Micaela S.; Laws, Ed A.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Fleming, Lora E. (Environmental Health, 2008)

Stormwater management and climate change: Vulnerability and capacity for adaptation in urban and suburban contexts - Moore, T. L.; Gulliver, J. S.; Stack, L.; Simpson, M. H. (Climatic Change, 2016)
Managing stormwater under climate uncertainty is a concern in both built-out communities and those continuing to undergo land use change. In this study, a suite of climate change scenarios were developed to represent a probable range of change in the 10-year recurrence interval design storm. The Environmental Protection Agency's Stormwater Management Model was used to predict flooding due to undersized drainage components within watersheds representing a traditional, built-out urban area and a developing suburban area with intact green infrastructure corridors. Despite undersized infrastructure and flooding in both study watersheds, the risk of property damage in the suburban watershed was negligible across the range of scenarios even at projected build-out, due in part to flood storage capacity of the green infrastructure network. Adaptation approaches - including pipe upsizing, underground storage, and bioinfiltration - and costs were also modeled in both watersheds. In the built-out site, bioinfiltration practices were predicted to moderate both flooding and total adaptation costs even when implemented over a relatively modest (10 %) portion of the watershed; however, a substantial upgrade to gray stormwater infrastructure (pipes and storage chambers) was also needed to mitigate impacts. In the urbanizing community, maintaining an intact green infrastructure network was surmised to be the most cost-effective approach for enhancing the resilience of urban stormwater systems to climate uncertainties and urbanization.
Moore, Trisha L. Gulliver, John S. Stack, Latham Simpson, Michael H.
Keywords: Water Urban Climate change Adaptation Green infrastructure

Urban-hazard risk analysis: Mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities - Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Gioli, Beniamino; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Toscano, Piero; Di Stefano, Valentina; Orlandini, Simone; Gensini, Gian Franco (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Background Short-term impacts of high temperatures on the elderly are well known. Even though Italy has the highest proportion of elderly citizens in Europe, there is a lack of information on spatial heat-related elderly risks. Objectives Development of high-resolution, heat-related urban risk maps regarding the elderly population (≥65). Methods A long time-series (2001–2013) of remote sensing MODIS data, averaged over the summer period for eleven major Italian cities, were downscaled to obtain high spatial resolution (100 m) daytime and night-time land surface temperatures (LST). LST was estimated pixel-wise by applying two statistical model approaches: 1) the Linear Regression Model (LRM); 2) the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). Total and elderly population density data were extracted from the Joint Research Centre population grid (100 m) from the 2001 census (Eurostat source), and processed together using “Crichton’s Risk Triangle” hazard-risk methodology for obtaining a Heat-related Elderly Risk Index (HERI). Results The GAM procedure allowed for improved daytime and night-time LST estimations compared to the LRM approach. High-resolution maps of daytime and night-time HERI levels were developed for inland and coastal cities. Urban areas with the hazardous HERI level (very high risk) were not necessarily characterized by the highest temperatures. The hazardous HERI level was generally localized to encompass the city-centre in inland cities and the inner area in coastal cities. The two most dangerous HERI levels were greater in the coastal rather than inland cities. Conclusions This study shows the great potential of combining geospatial technologies and spatial demographic characteristics within a simple and flexible framework in order to provide high-resolution urban mapping of daytime and night-time HERI. In this way, potential areas for intervention are immediately identified with up-to-street level details. This information could support public health operators and facilitate coordination for heat-related emergencies.

Miami Beach coastal flooding forum - Morales, Jimmy (Forum on Indicators of Coastal Flooding and Flood Impacts, 2016)

Land-use and ecosystem services costs of unconventional US oil and gas development - Moran, Matthew D.; Taylor, Nathan T.; Mullins, Tabitha F.; Sardar, Sehrish S.; McClung, Maureen R. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2017)

Functional response of U.S. grasslands to the early 21st-century drought - Moran, M. Susan; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Huete, Alfredo; McClaran, Mitchel P.; Zhang, Yongguang; Hamerlynck, Erik P.; Augustine, David J.; Gunter, Stacey A.; Kitchen, Stanley G.; Peters, Debra P. C.; Starks, Patrick J.; Hernandez, Mariano (Ecology, 2014)
Keywords: climate change desert extreme events grassland production invasive species plains precipitation variability resilience warm drought

California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014: Recommendations for Preventing and Resolving Groundwater Conflicts - Moran, Tara; Cravens, Amanda (Stanford University Water in the West, 2015)

Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models - Mordecai, Erin A.; Cohen, Jeremy M.; Evans, Michelle V.; Gudapati, Prithvi; Johnson, Leah R.; Lippi, Catherine A.; Miazgowicz, Kerri; Murdock, Courtney C.; Rohr, Jason R.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Savage, Van; Shocket, Marta S.; et al. (PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2017)
Understanding the drivers of recent Zika, dengue, and chikungunya epidemics is a major public health priority. Temperature may play an important role because it affects virus transmission by mosquitoes, through its effects on mosquito development, survival, reproduction, and biting rates as well as the rate at which mosquitoes acquire and transmit viruses. Here, we measure the impact of temperature on transmission by two of the most common mosquito vector species for these viruses, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. We integrate data from several laboratory experiments into a mathematical model of temperature-dependent transmission, and find that transmission peaks at 26–29°C and can occur between 18–34°C. Statistically comparing model predictions with recent observed human cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika across the Americas suggests an important role for temperature, and supports model predictions. Using the model, we predict that most of the tropics and subtropics are suitable for transmission in many or all months of the year, but that temperate areas like most of the United States are only suitable for transmission for a few months during the summer (even if the mosquito vector is present).

Grasslands, wetlands, and agriculture: The fate of land expiring from the Conservation Reserve Program in the Midwestern United States - Morefield, Philip E.; LeDuc, Stephen D.; Clark, Christopher M.; Iovanna, Richard (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is the largest agricultural land-retirement program in the United States, providing many environmental benefits, including wildlife habitat and improved air, water, and soil quality. Since 2007, however, CRP area has declined by over 25% nationally with much of this land returning to agriculture. Despite this trend, it is unclear what types of CRP land are being converted, to what crops, and where. All of these specific factors greatly affect environmental impacts. To answer these questions, we quantified shifts in expiring CRP parcels to five major crop-types (corn, soy, winter and spring wheat, and sorghum) in a 12-state, Midwestern region of the United States using a US Department of Agriculture (USDA), field-level CRP database and USDA’s Cropland Data Layer. For the years 2010 through 2013, we estimate almost 30%, or more than 530 000 ha, of expiring CRP land returned to the production of these five crops in our study area, with soy and corn accounting for the vast majority of these shifts. Grasslands were the largest type of CRP land converted (360 000 ha), followed by specifically designated wildlife habitat (76 000 ha), and wetland areas (53 000 ha). These wetland areas were not just wetlands themselves, but also a mix of land covers enhancing or protecting wetland ecosystem services (e.g., wetland buffers). Areas in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and southern Iowa were hotspots of change, with the highest areas of CRP land moving back to agriculture. By contrast, we estimate only a small amount (∼3%) of the expiring land shifted into similar, non-CRP land-retirement or easement programs. Reconciling needs for food, feed, fuel, and healthy ecosystems is an immense challenge for farmers, conservationists, and state and federal agencies. Reduced enrollment and the turnover of CRP land from conservation to agriculture raises questions about sustaining ecosystem services in this region.

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation - Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; et al. (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

The Climate Gap: Inequalities in How Climate Change Hurts Americans & How to Close the Gap - Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Pastor, Manuel; Sadd, James; Shonkoff, Seth B. (University of California, Berkeley, and USC Program for Environmental & Regional Equity, 2009)

Understanding the cumulative impacts of inequalities in environmental health: Implications for policy - Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zuk, Miriam; Jerrett, Michael; Shamasunder, Bhavna; Kyle, Amy D. (Health Affairs, 2011)
Racial or ethnic minority groups and low-income communities have poorer health outcomes than others. They are more frequently exposed to multiple environmental hazards and social stressors, including poverty, poor housing quality, and social inequality. Researchers are grappling with how best to characterize the cumulative effects of these hazards and stressors in order to help regulators and decision makers craft more-effective policies to address health and environmental disparities. In this article we synthesize the existing scientific evidence regarding the cumulative health implications of higher rates of exposure to environmental hazards, along with individual biological susceptibility and social vulnerability. We conclude that current environmental policy, which is focused narrowly on pollutants and their sources, should be broadened to take into account the cumulative impact of exposures and vulnerabilities encountered by people who live in neighborhoods consisting largely of racial or ethnic minorities or people of low socioeconomic status.
Keywords: Environmental Health,Minority Health,Disparities

High-altitude hunter-gatherer residential occupations in Wyoming's Wind River Range - Morgan, Christopher; Losey, Ashley; Adams, Richard (North American Archaeologist, 2012)
High Rise Village is a hunter-gatherer residential site containing at least 52 house features at a mean elevation of 3200 m in Wyoming's Wind River Range. Fifteen radiocarbon dates place site occupation(s) between 4500 and 150 cal BP. Though the 4500 cal BP dates likely result from an old wood problem, dates between 2800 and 150 BP appear more sound, particularly those between 1500 and 500 cal BP. Comparison with other high-altitude residential site radiocarbon dates shows a trend of earlier high-altitude residential occupations to the east of the Great Basin. This has important implications regarding Great Basin-Rocky Mountain culture histories, in particular by calling into question both the Numic Spread hypothesis and the relationship of the site to Rocky Mountain-High Plains hunter-gatherer residential patterns. More importantly, these data emphasize the roles medieval climate and regional population densities may have played in conditioning late Holocene high-altitude hunter-gatherer lifeways across western North America.

Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy - Morgan, M. Granger (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014)
The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making.

Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis: Including Applications in Science and Technology - Morgan, M. Granger (Cambridge University Press, 2017)
Many books instruct readers on how to use the tools of policy analysis. This book is different. Its primary focus is on helping readers to look critically at the strengths, limitations, and the underlying assumptions analysts make when they use standard tools or problem framings. Using examples, many of which involve issues in science and technology, the book exposes readers to some of the critical issues of taste, professional responsibility, ethics, and values that are associated with policy analysis and research. Topics covered include policy problems formulated in terms of utility maximization such as benefit-cost, decision, and multi-attribute analysis, issues in the valuation of intangibles, uncertainty in policy analysis, selected topics in risk analysis and communication, limitations and alternatives to the paradigm of utility maximization, issues in behavioral decision theory, issues related to organizations and multiple agents, and selected topics in policy advice and policy analysis for government.

Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change - Morin, C. W.; Comrie, A. C. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.
Keywords: disease insect ecology culex-quinquefasciatus diptera united-states change scenarios malaria transmission mosquito abundance pipiens diptera aedes-aegypti culicidae temperature model

Climate and dengue transmission: Evidence and implications - Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.; Ernst, Kacey (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2013)

The impact of albedo increase to mitigate the urban heat island in Terni (Italy) using the WRF model - Morini, Elena; Touchaei, Ali; Castellani, Beatrice; Rossi, Federico; Cotana, Franco (Sustainability, 2016)

Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA - Moritz, C.; Patton, J.L.; Conroy, C.J.; Parra, J.L.; White, G.C.; Beissinger, S.R. (Science, 2008)

Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity - Moritz, M.A.; Parisien, M.A.; Batllori, E.; Krawchuk, M.A.; Van Dorn, J.; Ganz, D.J.; Hayhoe, K. (Ecosphere, 2012)

Bark beetles as agents of change in social–ecological systems - Morris, Jesse L; Cottrell, Stuart; Fettig, Christopher J; DeRose, R Justin; Mattor, Katherine M; Carter, Vachel A; Clear, Jennifer; Clement, Jessica; Hansen, Winslow D; Hicke, Jeffrey A; Higuera, Philip E; Seddon, Alistair WR; et al. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2018)
Due to recent outbreaks of native bark beetles, forest ecosystems have experienced substantial changes in landscape structure and function, which also affect nearby human populations. As a result, land managers have been tasked with sustaining ecosystem services in impacted areas by considering the best available science, public perceptions, and monitoring data to develop strategies to suppress bark beetle epidemics, and in some cases to restore affected lands and ecosystem services. The effects of bark beetle outbreaks are often detrimental to the provision of ecosystem services, including degraded landscape aesthetics and diminished air and water quality. However, there have been instances where bark beetle outbreaks have benefited communities by, for example, improving habitat for grazing animals and enhancing real‐estate values. As a consequence of the interaction of a warming climate and susceptible forest stand conditions, the frequency, severity, and extent of bark beetle outbreaks are expected to increase and therefore will continue to challenge many social–ecological systems. We synthesize experiences from recent outbreaks to encourage knowledge transfer from previously impacted communities to potentially vulnerable locations that may be at risk from future bark beetle epidemics.

Managing bark beetle impacts on ecosystems and society: Priority questions to motivate future research - Morris, Jesse L.; Cottrell, Stuart; Fettig, Christopher J.; Hansen, Winslow D.; Sherriff, Rosemary L.; Carter, Vachel A.; Clear, Jennifer L.; Clement, Jessica; DeRose, R. Justin; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Higuera, Philip E.; Mattor, Katherine M.; et al. (Journal of Applied Ecology, 2017)
Keywords: bark beetles conifer forests Dendroctonus ecosystem services forest disturbance horizon scanning Ips outbreaks resilience social–ecological systems

Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level - Morris, James T.; Sundareshwar, P. V.; Nietch, Christopher T.; Kjerfve, Björn; Cahoon, D. R. (Ecology, 2002)
Keywords: coastal wetlands optimal elevation, model salt marsh sea-level rise sediment accretion sedimentation Spartina

The emotional cost of distance: Geographic social network dispersion and post-traumatic stress among survivors of Hurricane Katrina - Morris, Katherine Ann; Deterding, Nicole M. (Social Science & Medicine, 2016)
Keywords: Mental illness Post-traumatic stress Natural disaster Social support Egocentric social networks Mixed methods Network dispersion

Climate change predicted to negatively influence surface soil organic matter of dryland cropping systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA - Morrow, Jason G.; Huggins, David R.; Reganold, John P. (Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 2017)
Soil organic matter (SOM) is a key indicator of agricultural productivity and overall soil health. Currently, dryland cropping systems of the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW) span a large gradient in mean annual temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP). These climatic drivers are major determinants of surface soil organic matter dynamics and storage characteristics. Future climate change projections through 2070 indicate significant shifts in MAT and MAP for the iPNW. We assessed surface (0 to 10 cm) soil organic C and N as well as active and recalcitrant fractions of SOM within long-term experiments representing different tillage regimes and cropping intensities across the current climatic gradient of the iPNW. We discovered that current levels of soil C and N as well as various SOM fractions were positively correlated with MAP and negatively correlated with MAT. Furthermore, these climatic drivers were more influential than either tillage regime or cropping intensity in determining SOM levels and characteristics. Soil organic C and total N as well as the hydrolyzable and non-hydrolyzable fractions were negatively correlated with the current ratio of MAT to MAP, called the climate ratio. Future climate projections (2030 and 2070) forecast an increase of the climate ratio, thus predicting declines in surface SOM and associated soil health across the iPNW.
Keywords: Climate change impacts,Soil health,soil organic matter,cropping systems,agroecosystems

Improving societal outcomes of extreme weather in a changing climate: An integrated perspective - Morss, Rebecca E.; Wilhelmi, Olga V.; Meehl, Gerald A.; Dilling, Lisa (Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2011)
Despite hazard mitigation efforts and scientific and technological advances, extreme weather events continue to cause substantial losses. The impacts of extreme weather result from complex interactions among physical and human systems across spatial and temporal scales. This article synthesizes current interdisciplinary knowledge about extreme weather, including temperature extremes (heat and cold waves), precipitation extremes (including floods and droughts), and storms and severe weather (including tropical cyclones). We discuss hydrometeorological aspects of extreme weather; projections of changes in extremes with anthropogenic climate change; and how social vulnerability, coping, and adaptation shape the societal impacts of extreme weather. We find four critical gaps where work is needed to improve outcomes of extreme weather: (a) reducing vulnerability; (b) enhancing adaptive capacity, including decision-making flexibility; (c) improving the usability of scientific information in decision making, and (d) understanding and addressing local causes of harm through participatory, community-based efforts formulated within the larger policy context.
Keywords: vulnerability,adaptive capacity,adaptation,disasters,natural hazards,uncertainty

Brazilian pepper—Its impact on people, animals and the environment - Morton, Julia F. (Economic Botany, 1978)
Native to Brazil,Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi, of the family Anacardiaceae, has been commonly cultivated in Florida for over 50 years as a dooryard ornamental. Use of its sprays of showy red fruits for Christmas decoration gave rise to the popular misnomer “Florida holly.” Too late it was found to become a large, spreading tree; aggressive seedlings began springing up near and far. Jungles ofSchinus have crowded out native vegetation over vast areas of Florida and the Bahamas, as in all the islands of Hawaii. When in bloom, the tree is a major source of respiratory difficulty and dermatitis; the fruits, in quantity, intoxicate birds and cause fatal trauma in four-footed animals. The abundant nectar yields a spicy commercial honey and beekeepers are opposed to eradication programs.

The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture - Morton, John F. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007)
Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as “subsistence” or “smallholder” farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.

Climate, Weather and Hops - Morton, Lois Wright; Gent, David; Gleason, Mark (Iowa State University, Department of Sociology, 2017)

Climate, Weather and Wine Grapes - Morton, Lois Wright; Mahaffee, Walt; Gleason, Mark (Iowa State University, Department of Sociology, 2017)

Morphological impacts of extreme storms on sandy beaches and barriers - Morton, R. A.; Sallenger Jr, A. H. (Journal of Coastal Research, 2003)

Carbon dioxide fluxes reflect plant zonation and belowground biomass in a coastal marsh - Moseman-Valtierra, Serena; Abdul-Aziz, Omar I.; Tang, Jianwu; Ishtiaq, Khandker S.; Morkeski, Kate; Mora, Jordan; Quinn, Ryan K.; Martin, Rose M.; Egan, Katharine; Brannon, Elizabeth Q.; Carey, Joanna; Kroeger, Kevin D. (Ecosphere, 2016)
Keywords: biological invasion blue carbon emissions global climate changes Juncus gerardii methane nitrous oxide sea-level rise Spartina alterniflora

Waterborne Transport, Ports and Waterways: A Review of Climate Change Drivers, Impacts, Responses and Mitigation - Moser, Hans; Hawkes, Peter J.; Arntsen, Øivind A.; Gaufres, Pierre; Mai, F. Stephan; Pauli, Gernot; White, Kathleen D. (PIANC Secretariat, EnviCom—Task Group 3, 2008)

Adaptation, mitigation, and their disharmonious discontents: An essay - Moser, S.C. (Climatic Change, 2012)

Rising to the Challenge, Together: A Review and Critical Assessment of the State of the US Climate Adaptation Field - Moser, Susanne C.; Coffee, Joyce; Seville, Aleka (Kresge Foundation, 2017)

Ch. 25: Coastal zone development and ecosystems - Moser, Susanne C.; Davidson, Margaret A.; Kirshen, Paul; Mulvaney, Peter; Murley, James F.; Neumann, James E.; Petes, Laura; Reed, Denise (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation - Moser, S.C.; Ekstrom, J.A. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2010)

Adaptation Finance Challenges: Characteristic Patterns Facing California Local Governments and Ways to Overcome Them. A Report for: California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment - Moser, Susanne C.; Ekstrom, Julia A.; Kim, Julia; Heitsch, Samantha (California Natural Resources Agency, 2018)

The long arm of climate change: Societal teleconnections and the future of climate change impacts studies - Moser, Susanne C.; Hart, Juliette A. Finzi (Climatic Change, 2015)
“Societal teleconnections” – analogous to physical teleconnections such as El Niño – are human-created linkages that link activities, trends, and disruptions across large distances, such that locations spatially separated from the locus of an event can experience a variety of impacts from it nevertheless. In the climate change context, such societal teleconnections add a layer of risk that is currently neither fully appreciated in most impacts or vulnerability assessments nor in on-the-ground adaptation planning. Conceptually, societal teleconnections arise from the interactions among actors, and the institutions that guide their actions, affecting the movement of various substances through different structures and processes. Empirically, they arise out of societal interactions, including globalization, to create, amplify, and sometimes attenuate climate change vulnerabilities and impacts in regions far from those where a climatic extreme or change occurs. This paper introduces a simple but systematic way to conceptualize societal teleconnections and then highlights and explores eight unique but interrelated types of societal teleconnections with selected examples: (1) trade and economic exchange, (2) insurance and reinsurance, (3) energy systems, (4) food systems; (5) human health, (6) population migration, (7) communication, and (8) strategic alliances and military interactions. The paper encourages further research to better understand the causal chains behind socially teleconnected impacts, and to identify ways to routinely integrate their consideration in impacts/vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning to limit the risk of costly impacts.

Aspirations and common tensions: Larger lessons from the third US national climate assessment - Moser, Susanne C.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Jacobs, Katharine L.; Moss, Richard H.; Buizer, James L. (Climatic Change, 2016)
The Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was produced by experts in response to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990. Based on lessons learned from previous domestic and international assessments, the NCA3 was designed to speak to a broad public and inform the concerns of policy- and decision-makers at different scales. The NCA3 was also intended to be the first step in an ongoing assessment process that would build the nation’s capacity to respond to climate change. This concluding paper draws larger lessons from the insights gained throughout the assessment process that are of significance to future US and international assessment designers. We bring attention to process and products delivered, communication and engagement efforts, and how they contributed to the sustained assessment. Based on areas where expectations were exceeded or not fully met, we address four common tensions that all assessment designers must confront and manage: between (1) core assessment ingredients (knowledge base, institutional set-up, principled process, and the people involved), (2) national scope and subnational adaptive management information needs, (3) scope, complexity, and manageability, and (4) deliberate evaluation and ongoing learning approaches. Managing these tensions, amidst the social and political contexts in which assessments are conducted, is critical to ensure that assessments are feasible and productive, while its outcomes are perceived as credible, salient, and legitimate.

Ch. 26: Decision support: Connecting science, risk perception, and decisions - Moss, Richard; Scarlett, P. Lynn; Kenney, Melissa A.; Kunreuther, Howard; Lempert, Robert; Manning, Jay; Williams, B. Ken; Boyd, James W.; Cloyd, Emily T.; Kaatz, Laurna; Patton, Lindene (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment - Moss, R.H.; Edmonds, J.A.; Hibbard, K.A.; Manning, M.R.; Rose, S.K.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Carter, T.R.; Emori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Kram, T.; Meehl, G.A.; Mitchell, J.F.B.; et al. (Nature, 2010)

Understanding Dynamics and Resilience in Complex Interdependent Systems: Prospects for a Multi-Model Framework and Community of Practice - Moss, Richard H.; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Delgado, Alison; Backhaus, Scott; Barrett, Christopher L.; Bhaduri, Budhendra; Kraucunas, Ian P.; Reed, Patrick M.; Rice, Jennie S.; Wing, Ian Sue; Tebaldi, Claudia (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016)

Understanding Data Needs for Vulnerability Assessment and Decision Making to Manage Vulnerability of Department of Defense Installations to Climate Change - Moss, Richard H.; Mearns, .Linda O.; Brandenberger, Jill; Delgado, Alison; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Rice, Jennie; Wang, Taiping; Yang, Zhaoqing; Bukovsky, Melissa; McCrary, Rachel; McGinnis, Seth; Blohm, Andrew; et al. (Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), 2016)

Ch. 21: Northwest - Mote, Philip; Snover, Amy K.; Capalbo, Susan; Eigenbrode, Sanford D.; Glick, Patty; Littell, Jeremy; Raymondi, Richard; Reeder, Spencer (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Declining mountain snowpack in western North America - Mote, P.W.; Hamlet, A.F.; Clark, M.P.; Lettenmaier, D.P. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2005)

Assessing the cultural effects of climate change on northwest tribes. Project summary [web site] - Mote, Philip W.; Hatfield, Samantha Chisholm (U.S. Geological Survey, National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, 2013)

Dramatic declines in snowpack in the western US - Mote, Philip W.; Li, Sihan; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Xiao, Mu; Engel, Ruth (npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2018)
Mountain snowpack stores a significant quantity of water in the western US, accumulating during the wet season and melting during the dry summers and supplying much of the water used for irrigated agriculture, and municipal and industrial uses. Updating our earlier work published in 2005, we find that with 14 additional years of data, over 90% of snow monitoring sites with long records across the western US now show declines, of which 33% are significant (vs. 5% expected by chance) and 2% are significant and positive (vs. 5% expected by chance). Declining trends are observed across all months, states, and climates, but are largest in spring, in the Pacific states, and in locations with mild winter climate. We corroborate and extend these observations using a gridded hydrology model, which also allows a robust estimate of total western snowpack and its decline. We find a large increase in the fraction of locations that posted decreasing trends, and averaged across the western US, the decline in average April 1 snow water equivalent since mid-century is roughly 15–30% or 25–50 km3, comparable in volume to the West’s largest man-made reservoir, Lake Mead.

Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States - Mote, Philip W.; Rupp, David E.; Li, Sihan; Sharp, Darrin J.; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter F.; Xiao, Mu; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Cullen, Heidi; Allen, Myles R. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: snow drought weather@home drought attribution superensemble regional climate model 0736 Snow 1630 Impacts of global change 1637 Regional climate change 1812 Drought 1863 Snow and ice

National Land Cover Database 2011 (NLCD 2011) - MRLC (Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium, 2017)

Solar Carport Initiative [web site] - MSU (Michigan State University (MSU), 2018)

MTA Climate Adaptation Task Force Resiliency Report - MTA (Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA), 2017)
Keywords: added by ERG

Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the United States: The role of socio-economic scenarios - Mu, Jianhong E.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Antle, John M. (Climatic Change, 2017)

Oregon’s 2017 Integrated Water Resources Strategy - Mucken, Alyssa; Bateman, Brenda (Oregon Water Resources Department, 2017)

Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale - Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S.I. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2012)
Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance. Hot extremes have been shown to be induced by surface moisture deficits in some regions. In this study, we assess whether such a relationship holds at the global scale. We find that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions’ hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. The occurrence probability of an above-average number of hot days is over 70% after precipitation deficits in most parts of South America as well as the Iberian Peninsula and Eastern Australia, and over 60% in most of North America and Eastern Europe, while it is below 30–40% after wet conditions in these regions. Using quantile regression analyses, we show that the impact of precipitation deficits on the number of hot days is asymmetric, i.e. extreme high numbers of hot days are most strongly influenced. This relationship also applies to the 2011 extreme event in Texas. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed.
Keywords: hot day prediction; soil moisture–temperature coupling; standardized precipitation index; temperature extremes

Impacts of warming and elevated CO2 on a semi-arid grassland are non-additive, shift with precipitation, and reverse over time - Mueller, K. E.; Blumenthal, D. M.; Pendall, E.; Carrillo, Y.; Dijkstra, F. A.; Williams, D. G.; Follett, R. F.; Morgan, J. A. (Ecology Letters, 2016)
Keywords: Artemisia frigida Bouteloua gracilis C3 grass C4 grass climate change forb nitrogen plant productivity root biomass soil moisture

TechBrief: Climate Change Adaptation For Pavements - Muench, Steve; Van Dam, Tom (Federal Highway Administration, 2015)

Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change - Mueter, F. J.; Bond, N. A.; Ianelli, J. N.; Hollowed, A. B. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2011)

Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf - Mueter, F.J.; Litzow, M.A. (Ecological Applications, 2008)

Invasive hybridization in a threatened species is accelerated by climate change - Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Jones, Leslie A.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Boyer, Matthew C.; Leary, Robb F.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Luikart, Gordon; Allendorf, Fred W. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

Potential salinity and temperature futures for the Chesapeake Bay using a statistical downscaling spatial disaggregation framework - Muhling, Barbara A.; Gaitán, Carlos F.; Stock, Charles A.; Saba, Vincent S.; Tommasi, Desiree; Dixon, Keith W. (Estuaries and Coasts, 2017)
Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO2 emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.

Global gridded crop model evaluation: Benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications - Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Phillipe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven; Iizumi, Toshichika; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; et al. (Geoscientific Model Development, 2017)
GMD

Water Problem: Climate Change and Water Policy in the United States - Mulroy, Pat (The Brookings Institution, 2017)

Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: 2017 Interim Report—An Independent Study - Multihazard Mitigation Council (National Institute of Building Sciences, 2017)

Mangroves enhance the biomass of coral reef fish communities in the Caribbean - Mumby, Peter J.; Edwards, Alasdair J.; Arias-González, J. Ernesto; Lindeman, Kenyon C.; Blackwell, Paul G.; Gall, Angela; Gorczynska, Malgosia I.; Harborne, Alastair R.; Pescod, Claire L.; Renken, Henk; Wabnitz, Colette C. C.; Llewellyn, Ghislane (Nature, 2004)
Mangrove forests are one of the world's most threatened tropical ecosystems with global loss exceeding 35% (ref. 1). Juvenile coral reef fish often inhabit mangroves, but the importance of these nurseries to reef fish population dynamics has not been quantified. Indeed, mangroves might be expected to have negligible influence on reef fish communities: juvenile fish can inhabit alternative habitats and fish populations may be regulated by other limiting factors such as larval supply or fishing. Here we show that mangroves are unexpectedly important, serving as an intermediate nursery habitat that may increase the survivorship of young fish. Mangroves in the Caribbean strongly influence the community structure of fish on neighbouring coral reefs. In addition, the biomass of several commercially important species is more than doubled when adult habitat is connected to mangroves. The largest herbivorous fish in the Atlantic, Scarus guacamaia, has a functional dependency on mangroves and has suffered local extinction after mangrove removal. Current rates of mangrove deforestation are likely to have severe deleterious consequences for the ecosystem function, fisheries productivity and resilience of reefs. Conservation efforts should protect connected corridors of mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs.
Keywords: Environment Animals Mexico Angiosperms Population Density Anthozoa Belize Biomass Caribbean Region Fishes Trees

Is there a temperate bias in our understanding of how climate change will alter plant-herbivore interactions? A meta-analysis of experimental studies - Mundim, Fabiane M.; Bruna, Emilio M. (The American Naturalist, 2016)
Climate change can drive major shifts in community composition and interactions between resident species. However, the magnitude of these changes depends on the type of interactions and the biome in which they take place. We review the existing conceptual framework for how climate change will influence tropical plant-herbivore interactions and formalize a similar framework for the temperate zone. We then conduct the first biome-specific tests of how plant-herbivore interactions change in response to climate-driven changes in temperature, precipitation, ambient CO2, and ozone. We used quantitative meta-analysis to compare predicted and observed changes in experimental studies. Empirical studies were heavily biased toward temperate systems, so testing predicted changes in tropical plant-herbivore interactions was virtually impossible. Furthermore, most studies investigated the effects of CO2 with limited plant and herbivore species. Irrespective of location, most studies manipulated only one climate change factor despite the fact that different factors can act in synergy to alter responses of plants and herbivores. Finally, studies of belowground plant-herbivore interactions were also rare; those conducted suggest that climate change could have major effects on belowground subsystems. Our results suggest that there is a disconnection between the growing literature proposing how climate change will influence plant-herbivore interactions and the studies testing these predictions. General conclusions will also be hampered without better integration of above- and belowground systems, assessing the effects of multiple climate change factors simultaneously, and using greater diversity of species in experiments.
Keywords: climate change,plant-herbivore interactions,tropical,temperate,aboveground,belowground

Environmental controls of phenology of high-latitude Chinook salmon populations of the Yukon River, North America, with application to fishery management - Mundy, P. R.; Evenson, D. F. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2011)
Keywords: native

Overview of Natural Catastrophe Figures for 2016 [web site] - Munich RE (2017)

Crop damage and epidemics associated with 1993 floods in Iowa - Munkvold, G. P.; Yang, X. B. (Plant Disease, 1995)

Could the recent Zika epidemic have been predicted? - Muñoz, Ángel G.; Thomson, Madeleine C.; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Chourio, Xandre; Nájera, Patricia; Moran, Zelda; Yang, Xiaosong (Frontiers in Microbiology, 2017)
Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower –but still of potential use to decision-makers– for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least one month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.
Keywords: Zika,Aedes-borne diseases,predictability,climate,basic reproduction number model,Dengue,Chikungunya

Effect of evacuation and displacement on the association between flooding and mental health outcomes: A cross-sectional analysis of UK survey data - Munro, Alice; Kovats, R. Sari; Rubin, G. James; Waite, Thomas David; Bone, Angie; Armstrong, Ben (The Lancet Planetary Health, 2017)

Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region - Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Belnap, Jayne; Hubbard, J.A.; Swann, Don E.; Rutman, Sue (Global Change Biology, 2012)
Keywords: arid; drought; long-term change; plant cover; southwestern United States

Chemical composition and digestibility of Trifolium exposed to elevated ozone and carbon dioxide in a free-air (FACE) fumigation system - Muntifering, R. B.; Chappelka, A. H.; Lin, J. C.; Karnosky, D. F.; Somers, G. L. (Functional Ecology, 2006)
Summary 1 Tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are significant drivers of plant growth and chemical composition. We hypothesized that exposure to elevated concentrations of O3 and CO2, singly and in combination, would modify the chemical composition of Trifolium and thus alter its digestibility and nutritive quality for ruminant herbivores. 2 We tested our hypothesis by collecting samples of Red Clover (Trifolium pratense) and White Clover (Trifolium repens) from the understoreys of Trembling Aspen (Populus tremuloides)–Sugar Maple (Acer saccharum) communities that had been exposed since 1998 to ambient air, elevated CO2, elevated O3 or elevated CO2 + O3 at the Aspen Free-Air CO2 and O3 Enrichment (FACE) site located near Rhinelander, WI, USA. Foliage samples were analysed for (1) concentrations of N, total cell wall constituents, lignin and soluble phenolics; and (2) in vitro dry-matter digestibility (IVDMD) and in vitro cell-wall digestibility (IVCWD) using batch cultures of ruminal micro-organisms. 3 Significant air-treatment effects were observed for lignin concentration, IVDMD and IVCWD, and between Red and White Clover for all dependent variables. No air treatment × clover species interactions were detected. 4 Exposure to elevated O3 resulted in increased concentration of lignin and decreased IVDMD and IVCWD compared with exposure to ambient air, and the response was similar regardless of whether plants had been coexposed to elevated CO2. Exposure to elevated CO2 alone did not affect chemical composition or in vitro digestibility, nor did it ameliorate the negative effect of elevated O3 on these determinants of nutritive quality for ruminant herbivores. 5 In contrast to recent reports of a protective effect of elevated CO2 against growth reduction in plants under O3 stress, our results indicate that elevated CO2 would not be expected to ameliorate the negative impact of elevated O3 on nutritive quality of Trifolium under projected future global climate scenarios.

Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii - Murakami, Hiroyuki; Wang, Bin; Li, Tim; Kitoh, Akio (Nature Climate Change, 2013)
Projections of the potential impacts of global warming on regional tropical cyclone activity are challenging owing to multiple sources of uncertainty in model physical schemes and different assumptions for future sea surface temperatures. A key factor in projecting climate change is to derive robust signals of future changes in tropical cyclone activity across different model physical schemes and different future patterns in sea surface temperature. A suite of future warming experiments (2075–2099), using a state-of-the-art high-resolution global climate model, robustly predicts an increase in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence around the Hawaiian Islands. A physically based empirical model analysis reveals that the substantial increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclone frequency is primarily associated with a northwestward shifting of the tropical cyclone track in the open ocean southeast of the islands. Moreover, significant and robust changes in large-scale environmental conditions strengthen in situ tropical cyclone activity in the subtropical central Pacific. These results highlight possible future increases in storm-related socio-economic and ecosystem damage for the Hawaiian Islands.
Keywords: Climate sciences

A critique of the "novel ecosystem" concept - Murcia, Carolina; Aronson, James; Kattan, Gustavo H.; Moreno-Mateos, David; Dixon, Kingsley; Simberloff, Daniel (Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2014)
Keywords: ecological restoration novel ecosystems ecological thresholds global change

Texas Coastal Bend Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment - Murdock, Meagan; Brenner, Jorge (The Nature Conservancy, 2016)

Death of a monster: Laws may finally kill Gila River adjudication - Murphy, Lindsay (American Indian Law Review, 2003)

Why have greenhouse emissions in RGGI states declined? An econometric attribution to economic, energy market, and policy factors - Murray, Brian C.; Maniloff, Peter T. (Energy Economics, 2015)
Keywords: Climate policy Cap-and-trade Policy design

Evacuation transportation modeling: An overview of research, development, and practice - Murray-Tuite, Pamela; Wolshon, Brian (Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2013)
Keywords: Evacuation planning Disaster Hurricane No-notice Demand Infrastructure use Management strategies

Slower snowmelt in a warmer world - Musselman, Keith N.; Clark, Martyn P.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Rasmussen, Roy (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Advancing preparedness and response to drought and wildfires through North American Transboundary Collaboration - Muth, Meredith; Anderson, Kerry; Brown, David; Brown, Tim; Delgado, Ed; Garfin, Gregg; Hadwen, Trevor; Murphy, Victor; Ramírez, Reynaldo Pascual; Pugh, Brad; Gutiérrez, Jesús Héctor Robles; Heim, Richard; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2017)

Climate change and global food systems: Potential impacts on food security and undernutrition - Myers, Samuel S.; Smith, Matthew R.; Guth, Sarah; Golden, Christopher D.; Vaitla, Bapu; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Dangour, Alan D.; Huybers, Peter (Annual Review of Public Health, 2017)
Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems—agriculture, fisheries, and livestock—as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.
Keywords: planetary health,global health,climate change,food security,malnutrition,global environmental change

Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: A modelling study - Myers, Samuel S.; Wessells, K. Ryan; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel (The Lancet Global Health, 2015)

Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition - Myers, Samuel S.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Kloog, Itai; Huybers, Peter; Leakey, Andrew D. B.; Bloom, Arnold J.; Carlisle, Eli; Dietterich, Lee H.; Fitzgerald, Glenn; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Holbrook, N. Michele; Nelson, Randall L.; et al. (Nature, 2014)
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Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: Dynamics, impacts and research priorities - Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Forbes, Bruce C.; Wilmking, Martin; Hallinger, Martin; Lantz, Trevor; Blok, Daan; Tape, Ken D.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Sass-Klaassen, Ute; Lévesque, Esther; Boudreau, Stéphane; Ropars, Pascale; et al. (Environmental Research Letters, 2011)
Recent research using repeat photography, long-term ecological monitoring and dendrochronology has documented shrub expansion in arctic, high-latitude and alpine tundra ecosystems. Here, we (1) synthesize these findings, (2) present a conceptual framework that identifies mechanisms and constraints on shrub increase, (3) explore causes, feedbacks and implications of the increased shrub cover in tundra ecosystems, and (4) address potential lines of investigation for future research. Satellite observations from around the circumpolar Arctic, showing increased productivity, measured as changes in ‘greenness’, have coincided with a general rise in high-latitude air temperatures and have been partly attributed to increases in shrub cover. Studies indicate that warming temperatures, changes in snow cover, altered disturbance regimes as a result of permafrost thaw, tundra fires, and anthropogenic activities or changes in herbivory intensity are all contributing to observed changes in shrub abundance. A large-scale increase in shrub cover will change the structure of tundra ecosystems and alter energy fluxes, regional climate, soil–atmosphere exchange of water, carbon and nutrients, and ecological interactions between species. In order to project future rates of shrub expansion and understand the feedbacks to ecosystem and climate processes, future research should investigate the species or trait-specific responses of shrubs to climate change including: (1) the temperature sensitivity of shrub growth, (2) factors controlling the recruitment of new individuals, and (3) the relative influence of the positive and negative feedbacks involved in shrub expansion.

Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing - Myhre, G.; Shindell, D.; Bréon, F.-M.; Collins, W.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Huang, J.; Koch, D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lee, D.; Mendoza, B.; Nakajima, T.; Robock, A.; et al. (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

Does the spatial arrangement of urban landscape matter? Examples of urban warming and cooling in Phoenix and Las Vegas - Myint, Soe Win; Zheng, Baojuan; Talen, Emily; Fan, Chao; Kaplan, Shai; Middel, Ariane; Smith, Martin; Huang, Huei-ping; Brazel, Anthony (Ecosystem Health and Sustainability, 2015)

Higher Education: Leading the Nation to a Safe and Secure Energy Future - NACUBO (National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) and Second Nature, 2012)

Adaptive silviculture for climate change: A national experiment in manager-scientist partnerships to apply an adaptation framework - Nagel, Linda M.; Palik, Brian J.; Battaglia, Michael A.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Guldin, James M.; Swanston, Christopher W.; Janowiak, Maria K.; Powers, Matthew P.; Joyce, Linda A.; Millar, Constance I.; Peterson, David L.; Ganio, Lisa M.; et al. (Journal of Forestry, 2017)
Forest managers in the United States must respond to the need for climate-adaptive strategies in the face of observed and projected climatic changes. However, there is a lack of on-the-ground forest adaptation research to indicate what adaptation measures or tactics might be effective in preparing forest ecosystems to deal with climate change. Natural resource managers in many areas are also challenged by scant locally or regionally relevant information on climate projections and potential impacts. The Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) project was designed to respond to these barriers to operationalizing climate adaptation strategies by providing a multiregion network of replicated operational-scale research sites testing ecosystem-specific climate change adaptation treatments across a gradient of adaptive approaches, and introducing conceptual tools and processes to integrate climate change considerations into management and silvicultural decisionmaking. Here we present the framework of the ASCC project, highlight the implementation process at two of the study sites, and discuss the contributions of this collaborative science-management partnership. Management and Policy Implications The shortage of scientifically robust, replicated, operational-scale research on forest adaptation to climate change has left forest and natural resource managers with little information on and few examples of on-the-ground adaptation approaches that could work for their forest ecosystems. The Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) project is establishing a national network of long-term silvicultural research sites across multiple regions and a diversity of forest types to test a range of adaptation approaches and to provide managers with the tangible demonstrations needed to inform climate-adaptive decisionmaking in their forest management. Furthermore, the ASCC project provides managers and scientists with training on integrating climate change considerations into planning processes and identifying locally appropriate adaptation approaches and tactics. The main goals of the ASCC project ultimately serve to advance understanding within the forest management community of how management can foster adaptive responses to the impacts of uncertain climate futures. The science-management partnerships built through this project help inform the relevance of the research, as well as advance communication on climate change adaptation at a national scale.
Keywords: adaptation adaptive management climate change partnerships silviculture

Global alteration of ocean ecosystem functioning due to increasing human CO2 emissions - Nagelkerken, Ivan; Connell, Sean D. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
People are not only concerned about climate change and its effects on plant and animal diversity but also about how humans are fundamentally changing the globe’s largest ecosystem that sustains economic revenue and food for many countries. We show that many species communities and ocean habitats will change from their current states. Ocean acidification and warming increase the potential for an overall simplification of ecosystem structure and function with reduced energy flow among trophic levels and little scope for species to acclimate. The future simplification of our oceans has profound consequences for our current way of life, particularly for coastal populations and those that rely on oceans for food and trade.Rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are anticipated to drive change to ocean ecosystems, but a conceptualization of biological change derived from quantitative analyses is lacking. Derived from multiple ecosystems and latitudes, our metaanalysis of 632 published experiments quantified the direction and magnitude of ecological change resulting from ocean acidification and warming to conceptualize broadly based change. Primary production by temperate noncalcifying plankton increases with elevated temperature and CO2, whereas tropical plankton decreases productivity because of acidification. Temperature increases consumption by and metabolic rates of herbivores, but this response does not translate into greater secondary production, which instead decreases with acidification in calcifying and noncalcifying species. This effect creates a mismatch with carnivores whose metabolic and foraging costs increase with temperature. Species diversity and abundances of tropical as well as temperate species decline with acidification, with shifts favoring novel community compositions dominated by noncalcifiers and microorganisms. Both warming and acidification instigate reduced calcification in tropical and temperate reef-building species. Acidification leads to a decline in dimethylsulfide production by ocean plankton, which as a climate gas, contributes to cloud formation and maintenance of the Earth’s heat budget. Analysis of responses in short- and long-term experiments and of studies at natural CO2 vents reveals little evidence of acclimation to acidification or temperature changes, except for microbes. This conceptualization of change across whole communities and their trophic linkages forecast a reduction in diversity and abundances of various key species that underpin current functioning of marine ecosystems.

Transit-oriented smart growth can reduce life-cycle environmental impacts and household costs in Los Angeles - Nahlik, Matthew J.; Chester, Mikhail V. (Transport Policy, 2014)
Keywords: Transit-oriented development Life-cycle assessment Transportation and land-use planning Los Angeles Greenhouse gas emissions Energy and air quality

Multi-model ensemble analysis of runoff extremes for climate change impact assessments - Najafi, Mohammad Reza; Moradkhani, Hamid (Journal of Hydrology, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change Extreme events Bayesian hierarchical Bayesian model averaging Multi-modeling

Weathering Uncertainty: Traditional Knowledge for Climate Change Assessment and Adaptation - Nakashima, D.J.; Galloway McLean, K.; Thulstrup, H.D.; Ramos Castillo, A.; Rubis, J.T. (UNESCO, Paris and UNU, Darwin, 2012)

IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Alcamo, Joseph; Davis, Gerald; Vries, Bert de; Fenhann, Joergen; Gaffin, Stuart; Gregory, Kenneth; Grübler, Arnulf; Jung, Tae Yong; Kram, Tom; Rovere, Emilio Lebre La; Michaelis, Laurie; et al. (Cambridge University Press, 2000)

Considerations for Climate Change and Variability Adaptation on the Navajo Nation - Nania, Julie; Cozzetto, Karen; Gillet, Nicole; Duren, Sabre; Tapp, Anne Mariah; Eitner, Michael; Baldwin, Beth (University of Colorado Law School, 2014)

Restoring Sacred Waters: A Guide to Protecting Tribal Non-Consumptive Water Uses in the Colorado River Basin - Nania, Julie; Guarino, Julia (Getches-Wilkinson Center for Natural Resources, Energy, and the Environment, 2014)

The effectiveness, costs and coastal protection benefits of natural and nature-based defences - Narayan, Siddharth; Beck, Michael W.; Reguero, Borja G.; Losada, Iñigo J.; van Wesenbeeck, Bregje; Pontee, Nigel; Sanchirico, James N.; Ingram, Jane Carter; Lange, Glenn-Marie; Burks-Copes, Kelly A. (PLOS ONE, 2016)
There is great interest in the restoration and conservation of coastal habitats for protection from flooding and erosion. This is evidenced by the growing number of analyses and reviews of the effectiveness of habitats as natural defences and increasing funding world-wide for nature-based defences–i.e. restoration projects aimed at coastal protection; yet, there is no synthetic information on what kinds of projects are effective and cost effective for this purpose. This paper addresses two issues critical for designing restoration projects for coastal protection: (i) a synthesis of the costs and benefits of projects designed for coastal protection (nature-based defences) and (ii) analyses of the effectiveness of coastal habitats (natural defences) in reducing wave heights and the biophysical parameters that influence this effectiveness. We (i) analyse data from sixty-nine field measurements in coastal habitats globally and examine measures of effectiveness of mangroves, salt-marshes, coral reefs and seagrass/kelp beds for wave height reduction; (ii) synthesise the costs and coastal protection benefits of fifty-two nature-based defence projects and; (iii) estimate the benefits of each restoration project by combining information on restoration costs with data from nearby field measurements. The analyses of field measurements show that coastal habitats have significant potential for reducing wave heights that varies by habitat and site. In general, coral reefs and salt-marshes have the highest overall potential. Habitat effectiveness is influenced by: a) the ratios of wave height-to-water depth and habitat width-to-wavelength in coral reefs; and b) the ratio of vegetation height-to-water depth in salt-marshes. The comparison of costs of nature-based defence projects and engineering structures show that salt-marshes and mangroves can be two to five times cheaper than a submerged breakwater for wave heights up to half a metre and, within their limits, become more cost effective at greater depths. Nature-based defence projects also report benefits ranging from reductions in storm damage to reductions in coastal structure costs.

Coastal Wetlands and Flood Damage Reduction: Using Risk Industry-based Models to Assess Natural Defenses in the Northeastern USA - Narayan, Siddharth; Beck, Michael W.; Wilson, Paul; Thomas, Christopher; Guerrero, Alexandra; Shepard, Christine; Reguero, Borja G.; Franco, Guillermo; Ingram, Jane Carter; Trespalacios, Dania (Lloyd’s Tercentenary Research Foundation, 2016)

The value of coastal wetlands for flood damage reduction in the northeastern USA - Narayan, Siddharth; Beck, Michael W.; Wilson, Paul; Thomas, Christopher J.; Guerrero, Alexandra; Shepard, Christine C.; Reguero, Borja G.; Franco, Guillermo; Ingram, Jane Carter; Trespalacios, Dania (Scientific Reports, 2017)
As exposure to coastal hazards increases there is growing interest in nature-based solutions for risk reduction. This study uses high-resolution flood and loss models to quantify the impacts of coastal wetlands in the northeastern USA on (i) regional flood damages by Hurricane Sandy and (ii) local annual flood losses in Barnegat Bay in Ocean County, New Jersey. Using an extensive database of property exposure, the regional study shows that wetlands avoided $625 Million in direct flood damages during Hurricane Sandy. The local study combines these models with a database of synthetic storms in Ocean County and estimates a 16% average reduction in annual flood losses by salt marshes with higher reductions at lower elevations. Together, the studies quantify the risk reduction ecosystem services of marsh wetlands. Measuring these benefits in collaboration with the risk modelling industry is crucial for assessing risk accurately and, where appropriate, aligning conservation and risk reduction goals.

Long-term dynamics in Atlantic surfclam (Spisula solidissima) populations: The role of bottom water temperature - Narváez, Diego A.; Munroe, Daphne M.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Klinck, John M.; Powell, Eric N.; Mann, Roger; Curchitser, Enrique (Journal of Marine Systems, 2015)
Keywords: Atlantic surfclam model Population dynamics Middle Atlantic Bight Ocean warming ROMS

Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration - NAS (The National Academies Press, 2015)
The signals are everywhere that our planet is experiencing significant climate change. It is clear that we need to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from our atmosphere if we want to avoid greatly increased risk of damage from climate change. Aggressively pursuing a program of emissions abatement or mitigation will show results over a timescale of many decades. How do we actively remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to make a bigger difference more quickly? As one of a two-book report, this volume of Climate Intervention discusses CDR, the carbon dioxide removal of greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere and sequestration of it in perpetuity. Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration introduces possible CDR approaches and then discusses them in depth. Land management practices, such as low-till agriculture, reforestation and afforestation, ocean iron fertilization, and land-and-ocean-based accelerated weathering, could amplify the rates of processes that are already occurring as part of the natural carbon cycle. Other CDR approaches, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration, direct air capture and sequestration, and traditional carbon capture and sequestration, seek to capture CO2 from the atmosphere and dispose of it by pumping it underground at high pressure. This book looks at the pros and cons of these options and estimates possible rates of removal and total amounts that might be removed via these methods. With whatever portfolio of technologies the transition is achieved, eliminating the carbon dioxide emissions from the global energy and transportation systems will pose an enormous technical, economic, and social challenge that will likely take decades of concerted effort to achieve. Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration will help to better understand the potential cost and performance of CDR strategies to inform debate and decision making as we work to stabilize and reduce atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide.
Keywords: Earth Sciences

Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth - NAS (The National Academies Press, 2015)
The growing problem of changing environmental conditions caused by climate destabilization is well recognized as one of the defining issues of our time. The root problem is greenhouse gas emissions, and the fundamental solution is curbing those emissions. Climate geoengineering has often been considered to be a "last-ditch" response to climate change, to be used only if climate change damage should produce extreme hardship. Although the likelihood of eventually needing to resort to these efforts grows with every year of inaction on emissions control, there is a lack of information on these ways of potentially intervening in the climate system. As one of a two-book report, this volume of Climate Intervention discusses albedo modification - changing the fraction of incoming solar radiation that reaches the surface. This approach would deliberately modify the energy budget of Earth to produce a cooling designed to compensate for some of the effects of warming associated with greenhouse gas increases. The prospect of large-scale albedo modification raises political and governance issues at national and global levels, as well as ethical concerns. Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth discusses some of the social, political, and legal issues surrounding these proposed techniques. It is far easier to modify Earth's albedo than to determine whether it should be done or what the consequences might be of such an action. One serious concern is that such an action could be unilaterally undertaken by a small nation or smaller entity for its own benefit without international sanction and regardless of international consequences. Transparency in discussing this subject is critical. In the spirit of that transparency, Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth was based on peer-reviewed literature and the judgments of the authoring committee; no new research was done as part of this study and all data and information used are from entirely open sources. By helping to bring light to this topic area, this book will help leaders to be far more knowledgeable about the consequences of albedo modification approaches before they face a decision whether or not to use them.
Keywords: Earth Sciences

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change - NAS (The National Academies Press, 2016)
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Keywords: Earth Sciences Environment and Environmental Studies

Weekly Animation of Arctic Sea Ice Age with Graph of Ice Age by Area: 1984-2016 - NASA (NASA Scientific Visualization Studio, 2016)

Global Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet. Carbon Dioxide [web page] - NASA (NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 2017)

NASA, NOAA Data Show 2016 Warmest Year on Record Globally - NASA (NASA, 2017)
Release 17-006

NASDAQ Stock Exchange - NASDAQ (2018)

The analysis of transit-oriented development (TOD) in Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metropolitan areas - Nasri, Arefeh; Zhang, Lei (Transport Policy, 2014)
Keywords: Transit-oriented development (TOD) Travel behavior Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) Multilevel modeling Transit use Transit accessibility

Farm Labor Methodology and Quality Measures - NASS (USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), 2017)

Constraints to wildlife harvesting among aboriginal communities in Alaska and Canada - Natcher, David; Shirley, Shea; Rodon, Thierry; Southcott, Chris (Food Security, 2016)
A large body of research confirms that access to wildlife resources can reduce conditions of food insecurity and health related illness among Aboriginal peoples in Canada and Alaska. Yet the procurement of wildfoods depends on the ability of Aboriginal households to overcome a range of obstacles that impede such access. Utilizing a data set collected between 2007 and 2013, this paper identifies a range of barriers that Aboriginal households in Alaska (Gwich’in), Alberta (Cree), Nunavik (Inuit), and Nunatsiavut (Inuit) encounter in accessing wildfoods. The results demonstrate that the constraints experienced by Aboriginal peoples in Canada and Alaska in accessing wildfoods are experienced differently depending on region, community, age, gender, and the political environment in which wildlife harvesting occurs. These findings underscore the diversity of factors that can influence one’s access to wildlife resources, and one’s chance of being food insecure. It is hoped that the results of this research will lead to a more informed understanding of Aboriginal food security in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic Regions of North America, and can contribute to more flexible policies that can account for the social, economic and political diversity in which Aboriginal food insecurity is experienced.

Airport Climate Adaptation and Resilience - National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (National Academies Press, 2012)
Keywords: added by ERG

Transportation Resilience: Adaptation to Climate Change - National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (National Academies Press, 2016)
Keywords: Transportation Adaptation

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change - National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (National Academies Press, 2016)
Keywords: added by ERG

Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments: Proceedings of a Workshop - National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (The National Academies Press, 2016)
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was established in 1990 to “assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”1 A key responsibility for the program is to conduct National Climate Assessments (NCAs) every 4 years.2 These assessments are intended to inform the nation about “observed changes in climate, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future.” The USGCRP hopes that government entities from federal agencies to small municipalities, citizens, communities, and businesses will rely on these assessments of climate- related risks for planning and decision-making. The third NCA (NCA3) was published in 2014 and work on the fourth is beginning. The USGCRP asked the Board on Environmental Change and Society of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to conduct a workshop to explore ways to frame the NCA4 and subsequent NCA reports in terms of risks to society. The workshop was intended to collect experienced views on how to characterize and communicate information about climate-related hazards, risks, and opportunities that will support decision makers in their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce vulnerability to likely changes in climate, and increase resilience to those changes. Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.
Keywords: Environment and Environmental Studies

Review of the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan: Report 2 - National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (The National Academies Press, 2017)
The Edwards Aquifer in south-central Texas is the primary source of water for one of the fastest growing cities in the United States, San Antonio, and it also supplies irrigation water to thousands of farmers and livestock operators. It is also is the source water for several springs and rivers, including the two largest freshwater springs in Texas that form the San Marcos and Comal Rivers. The unique habitat afforded by these spring-fed rivers has led to the development of species that are found in no other locations on Earth. Due to the potential for variations in spring flow caused by both human and natural causes, these species are continuously at risk and have been recognized as endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act(ESA). In an effort to manage the river systems and the aquifer that controls them, the Edwards Aquifer Authority and stakeholders have developed a Habitat Conservation Plan (HCP). The HCP seeks to effectively manage the river-aquifer system to ensure the viability of the ESA-listed species in the face of drought, population growth, and other threats to the aquifer. The National Research Council was asked to assist in this process by reviewing the activities around implementing the HCP. Review of the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan: Report 2 reviews the progress in implementing the recommendations from the Committee’s first report, seeking to clarify and provide additional support for implementation efforts where appropriate. The current report also reviews selected Applied Research projects and minimization and mitigation measures to help ensure their effectiveness in benefiting the listed species.
Keywords: Environment and Environmental Studies

Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide - National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (The National Academies Press, 2017)
The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive - from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems. Valuing Climate Changes examines potential approaches, along with their relative merits and challenges, for a comprehensive update to the current methodology. This publication also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities to ensure that the SC- CO2 estimates reflect the best available science.
Keywords: Environment and Environmental Studies

Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment - National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (The National Academies Press, 2018)
Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
Keywords: Earth Sciences Environment and Environmental Studies

Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment - National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine (The National Academies Press, 2018)
Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
Keywords: Earth Sciences Environment and Environmental Studies

Structural Performance of the New Orleans Hurricane Protection System During Hurricane Katrina - National Academy of Engineering; National Research Council (Letter Report, 2006)

2012 Census of Agriculture: 2013 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey - National Agricultural Statistics Service (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2014)

Tribal Infrastructure: Investing in Indian Country For a Stronger America - National Congress of American Indians (National Congress of American Indians (NCAI), 2017)

National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy - National Fish Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Partnership (Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, Council on Environmental Quality, Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2012)

National Storm Surge Hazard Maps—Version 2 - National Hurricane Center (NOAA National Weather Service, 2018)

A Framework for Establishing Critical Infrastructure Resilience Goals: Final Report and Recommendations - National Infrastructure Advisory Council (U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2010)

Implications for US National Security of Anticipated Climate Change - National Intelligence Council (National Intelligence Council, 2016)

Management Plan: 2016 - 2018 - National Invasive Species Council (NISC Secretariat, 2016)

Fisheries of the United States 2015 - National Marine Fisheries Service (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2016)

The Coastline of the United States - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (U.S. Government Printing Office, 1975)

Foundation Document: Fort Pulaski National Monument - National Park Service (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016)

A Climate-Smart Resource Stewardship Strategy for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks - National Park Service (Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, 2017)

Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy - National Research Council (The National Academies Press, 2007)
Coal will continue to provide a major portion of energy requirements in the United States for at least the next several decades. It is imperative that accurate information describing the amount, location, and quality of the coal resources and reserves be available to fulfill energy needs. It is also important that the United States extract its coal resources efficiently, safely, and in an environmentally responsible manner. A renewed focus on federal support for coal-related research, coordinated across agencies and with the active participation of the states and industrial sector, is a critical element for each of these requirements. Coal focuses on the research and development needs and priorities in the areas of coal resource and reserve assessments, coal mining and processing, transportation of coal and coal products, and coal utilization.
Keywords: Energy and Energy Conservation Industry and Labor

Nutrient Control Actions for Improving Water Quality in the Mississippi River Basin and Northern Gulf of Mexico - National Research Council (The National Academies Press, 2009)
A large area of coastal waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico experiences seasonal conditions of low levels of dissolved oxygen, a condition known as hypoxia. Excess discharge of nutrients into the Gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers causes nutrient overenrichment in the gulf's coastal waters and stimulates the growth of large algae blooms. When these algae die, the process of decomposition depletes dissolved oxygen from the water column and creates hypoxic conditions. In considering how to implement provisions of the Clean Water Act to strengthen nutrient reduction objectives across the Mississippi River basin, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requested advice from the National Research Council. This book represents the results of the committee's investigations and deliberations, and recommends that the EPA and U.S. Department of Agriculture should jointly establish a Nutrient Control Implementation Initiative to learn more about the effectiveness of actions meant to improve water quality throughout the Mississippi River basin and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Other recommendations include how to move forward on the larger process of allocating nutrient loading caps -- which entails delegating responsibilities for reducing nutrient pollutants such as nitrogen and phosphorus -- across the basin.
Keywords: Environment and Environmental Studies

Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks - National Research Council (The National Academies Press, 2009)
Detailed weather observations on local and regional levels are essential to a range of needs from forecasting tornadoes to making decisions that affect energy security, public health and safety, transportation, agriculture and all of our economic interests. As technological capabilities have become increasingly affordable, businesses, state and local governments, and individual weather enthusiasts have set up observing systems throughout the United States. However, because there is no national network tying many of these systems together, data collection methods are inconsistent and public accessibility is limited. This book identifies short-term and long-term goals for federal government sponsors and other public and private partners in establishing a coordinated nationwide "network of networks" of weather and climate observations.
Keywords: Earth Sciences Space and Aeronautics

Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change. America’s Climate Choices: Report of the Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change - National Research Council (National Academies Press, 2010)

Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change - National Research Council (The National Academies Press, 2010)
Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing. The proportion of precipitation that falls as rain rather than snow has increased across the western United States and Arctic sea ice has been reduced significantly. Sea level has been rising faster than at any time in recent history, threatening the natural and built environments on the coasts. Even if emissions of greenhouse gases were substantially reduced now, climate change and its resulting impacts would continue for some time to come. To date, decisions related to the management and protection of the nation's people, resources, and infrastructure have been based on records in the recent past, when climate was relatively stable. Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, part of the congressionally requested America's Climate Choices suite of studies, calls for a new paradigm-one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and impacts that may be well outside the realm of past experience. Adaptation requires actions from many decision makers in federal, state, tribal, and local governments; the private sector; non-governmental organizations; and community groups. However, current efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options; climate information on regional and local scales; and a lack of coordination. Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change calls for a national adaptation strategy that provides needed technical and scientific resources, incentives to begin adaptation planning, guidance across jurisdictions, shared lessons learned, and support of scientific research to expand knowledge of impacts and adaptation.
Keywords: Earth Sciences Environment and Environmental Studies

Dam and Levee Safety and Community Resilience: A Vision for Future Practice - National Research Council (The National Academies Press, 2012)
Although advances in engineering can reduce the risk of dam and levee failure, some failures will still occur. Such events cause impacts on social and physical infrastructure that extend far beyond the flood zone. Broadening dam and levee safety programs to consider community- and regional-level priorities in decision making can help reduce the risk of, and increase community resilience to, potential dam and levee failures. Collaboration between dam and levee safety professionals at all levels, persons and property owners at direct risk, members of the wider economy, and the social and environmental networks in a community would allow all stakeholders to understand risks, shared needs, and opportunities, and make more informed decisions related to dam and levee infrastructure and community resilience. Dam and Levee Safety and Community Resilience: A Vision for Future Practice explains that fundamental shifts in safety culture will be necessary to integrate the concepts of resilience into dam and levee safety programs.
Keywords: Earth Sciences

The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions - National Research Council (National Academies Press, 2014)
Once ice-bound, difficult to access, and largely ignored by the rest of the world, the Arctic is now front and center in the midst of many important questions facing the world today. Our daily weather, what we eat, and coastal flooding are all interconnected with the future of the Arctic. The year 2012 was an astounding year for Arctic change. The summer sea ice volume smashed previous records, losing approximately 75 percent of its value since 1980 and half of its areal coverage. Multiple records were also broken when 97 percent of Greenland's surface experienced melt conditions in 2012, the largest melt extent in the satellite era. Receding ice caps in Arctic Canada are now exposing land surfaces that have been continuously ice covered for more than 40,000 years. What happens in the Arctic has far-reaching implications around the world. Loss of snow and ice exacerbates climate change and is the largest contributor to expected global sea level rise during the next century. Ten percent of the world's fish catches comes from Arctic and sub-Arctic waters. The U.S. Geological Survey estimated that up to 13 percent of the world's remaining oil reserves are in the Arctic. The geologic history of the Arctic may hold vital clues about massive volcanic eruptions and the consequent release of massive amount of coal fly ash that is thought to have caused mass extinctions in the distant past. How will these changes affect the rest of Earth? What research should we invest in to best understand this previously hidden land, manage impacts of change on Arctic communities, and cooperate with researchers from other nations? The Arctic in the Anthropocene reviews research questions previously identified by Arctic researchers, and then highlights the new questions that have emerged in the wake of and expectation of further rapid Arctic change, as well as new capabilities to address them. This report is meant to guide future directions in U.S. Arctic research so that research is targeted on critical scientific and societal questions and conducted as effectively as possible. The Arctic in the Anthropocene identifies both a disciplinary and a cross-cutting research strategy for the next 10 to 20 years, and evaluates infrastructure needs and collaboration opportunities. The climate, biology, and society in the Arctic are changing in rapid, complex, and interactive ways. Understanding the Arctic system has never been more critical; thus, Arctic research has never been more important. This report will be a resource for institutions, funders, policy makers, and students. Written in an engaging style, The Arctic in the Anthropocene paints a picture of one of the last unknown places on this planet, and communicates the excitement and importance of the discoveries and challenges that lie ahead.
Keywords: Earth Sciences Environment and Environmental Studies

High water and high stakes: Cultural resources and climate change - National Trust for Historic Preservation (Forum Journal, 2015)

Climate and Culture - National Trust for Historic Preservation (National Trust for Historic Preservation, 2017)

Tyee Khunamokwst “Leading Together”: Cross-Cultural Climate Justice Leaders - Native American Youth & Family Center; Coalition of Communities of Color; OPAL Environmental Justice Oregon (2016)

Reducing the risk of heat-related decrements to physical activity in young people - Naughton, G. A.; Carlson, J. S. (Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, 2008)
Keywords: Children Heat Thermoregulation Exercise

Heat-related mortality during a 1999 heat wave in Chicago - Naughton, M. B.; Henderson, Alden; Mirabelli, Maria C.; Kaiser, Reinhard; Wilhelm, John L.; Kieszak, Stephanie M.; Rubin, Carol H.; McGeehin, Michael A. (American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2002)

Existing opportunities to adapt the Rio Grande/Bravo Basin water resources allocation framework - Nava, Luzma; Brown, Christopher; Demeter, Katalin; Lasserre, Frédéric; Milanés-Murcia, Maria; Mumme, Stephen; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel (Water, 2016)

Air-quality impacts and intake fraction of PM2.5 during the 2013 Rim Megafire - Navarro, Kathleen M.; Cisneros, Ricardo; O’Neill, Susan M.; Schweizer, Don; Larkin, Narasimhan K.; Balmes, John R. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2016)

Reforestation can sequester two petagrams of carbon in US topsoils in a century - Nave, Lucas E.; Domke, Grant M.; Hofmeister, Kathryn L.; Mishra, Umakant; Perry, Charles H.; Walters, Brian F.; Swanston, Christopher W. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018)
Forestland in the United States is a carbon (C) sink, offsetting ∼10% of annual greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change. Most of the C in forests is held in soils, and the capacity of forest soils to sequester C makes them a major component of the US forest C sink. Where reforestation is presently occurring, either through deliberate replanting after forestland is disturbed (e.g., burned), or where previously nonforested lands (e.g., cultivated) are converting to forestland, topsoils are accumulating C. However, these C accumulation rates are poorly constrained; quantifying them with empirical data are critical to accurately represent the role of reforestation in the US C budget and forecast the longevity of the US forest C sink.Soils are Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon (C) pool, and their responsiveness to land use and management make them appealing targets for strategies to enhance C sequestration. Numerous studies have identified practices that increase soil C, but their inferences are often based on limited data extrapolated over large areas. Here, we combine 15,000 observations from two national-level databases with remote sensing information to address the impacts of reforestation on the sequestration of C in topsoils (uppermost mineral soil horizons). We quantify C stocks in cultivated, reforesting, and natural forest topsoils; rates of C accumulation in reforesting topsoils; and their contribution to the US forest C sink. Our results indicate that reforestation increases topsoil C storage, and that reforesting lands, currently occupying >500,000 km2 in the United States, will sequester a cumulative 1.3–2.1 Pg C within a century (13–21 Tg C·y−1). Annually, these C gains constitute 10% of the US forest sector C sink and offset 1% of all US greenhouse gas emissions.

Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations - Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; Bowling, Laura C. (Global and Planetary Change, 2016)
Keywords: Hydroclimate change Extreme events CMIP5 RegCM4 VIC

Water floods subways, service likely to be out for days - NBC (NBC Channel 4, 2012)

Rural Hospital Closures: January 2010–Present - NC Rural Health Research Program (UNC, Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, 2017)

National Climate Assessment (NCA) Engagement Strategy - NCADAC (National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee, 2011)

Securing Our Futures - NCAI (National Congress of American Indians (NCAI), 2013)

Tribal Nations and the United States: An Introduction - NCAI (National Congress of American Indians (NCAI), 2015)

Policy Issues: Land & Natural Resources. Climate Change [web page] - NCAI (National Congress of American Indians, 2018)

Climate at a Glance. Global Time Series: Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies, 1880–2015 [web tool] - NCEI (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2016)

Climate Data Online [web tool] - NCEI (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2018)

Climate at a Glance. Regional Time Series: Northwest Climate Region, Average Temperature, January–December 2015 [web tool] - NCEI (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2018)

Climate at a Glance. Regional Time Series: Northwest Climate Region, Average Temperature, January–March 2015 [web tool] - NCEI (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2018)

Climate at a Glance. Regional Time Series: Northwest Climate Region, Precipitation, January–March 2015 [web tool] - NCEI (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2018)

Climate at a Glance. Regional Time Series: Northwest Climate Region, Precipitation, April–June 2015 [web tool] - NCEI (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2018)