Ch. 6: Climate impacts on water-related illness - Trtanj, Juli; Jantarasami, Lesley; Brunkard, Joan; Collier, Tracy; Jacobs, John; Lipp, Erin; McLellan, Sandra; Moore, Stephanie; Paerl, Hans; Ravenscroft, John; Sengco, Mario; Thurston, Jeanette (The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, 2016)

Forest health and global change - Trumbore, S.; Brando, P.; Hartmann, H. (Science, 2015)
Humans rely on healthy forests to supply energy, building materials, and food and to provide services such as storing carbon, hosting biodiversity, and regulating climate. Defining forest health integrates utilitarian and ecosystem measures of forest condition and function, implemented across a range of spatial scales. Although native forests are adapted to some level of disturbance, all forests now face novel stresses in the form of climate change, air pollution, and invasive pests. Detecting how intensification of these stresses will affect the trajectory of forests is a major scientific challenge that requires developing systems to assess the health of global forests. It is particularly critical to identify thresholds for rapid forest decline, because it can take many decades for forests to restore the services that they provide.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/349/6250/814.full.pdf

Forecasting impacts of climate change on Great Lakes surface water temperatures - Trumpickas, Justin; Shuter, Brian J.; Minns, Charles K. (Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2009)
Keywords: Climate change

EASE-Grid Sea Ice Age, Version 3 - Tschudi, M.; Fowler, C.; Maslanik, J.; Stewart, J. S.; Meier, W. (National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center, 2016)

Navajo Nation snowpack variability from 1985-2014 and implications for water resources management - Tsinnajinnie, Lani M.; Gutzler, David S.; John, Jason (Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 2018)
In the arid Southwest, snowpack in mountains plays an essential role in supplying surface water resources. Water managers from the Navajo Nation monitor snowpack at nine snow survey stations located in the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau in northern Arizona and New Mexico. We characterize these snowpack data for the period 1985-2014 and evaluate the efficacy of snowpack data collection efforts. Peak snow water equivalent occurs in early to mid-March depending on elevation. Variability in snowpack levels correlates highly among all sites (r > 0.64), but higher elevation sites in the Chuska Mountains correlate more strongly with one another compared to lower elevation sites and vice versa. Northern sites also correlate well with each other. A principal component analysis is used to create a weighted average time series of year-to-year peak snowpack variability. The first principal component showed no trend in increasing or decreasing Navajo Nation snowpack. Results from this research will provide the Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources information to help determine if any snow survey sites in the Chuska Mountains are redundant and can be discontinued to save time and money, while still providing snowpack information needed by the Navajo Nation. This summary of snowpack patterns, variability, and trends in the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau will help the Navajo Nation to understand how snowpack and water resources respond to climate change and climate variability.

Climate change and indigenous peoples: Comparative models of sovereignty - Tsosie, Rebecca (Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples: The Search for Legal Remedies, 2013)
Indigenous peoples occupy a unique niche within the climate justice movement, as many indigenous communities live subsistence lifestyles that are severely disrupted by the effects of climate change. Additionally, in many parts of the world, domestic law is applied differently to indigenous peoples than it is to their non-indigenous peers, further complicating the quest for legal remedies. The contributors to this book bring a range of expert legal perspectives to this complex discussion, offering both a comprehensive explanation of climate change-related problems faced by indigenous communities and a breakdown of various real world attempts to devise workable legal solutions. Regions covered include North and South America (Brazil, Canada, the US and the Arctic), the Pacific Islands (Fiji, Tuvalu and the Federated States of Micronesia), Australia and New Zealand, Asia (China and Nepal) and Africa (Kenya).

Navajo Nation, USA, precipitation variability from 2002 to 2015 - Tulley-Cordova, Crystal L.; Strong, Courtenay; Brady, Irving P.; Bekis, Jerome; Bowen, Gabriel J. (Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 2018)
Due to its semi-arid climate, the Navajo Nation, situated in the southwestern United States, is sensitive to small changes in precipitation. However, little information on patterns and causes of rainfall variation is available for this sparsely populated region. In order to study stability and variability over time, this study characterized hydroclimatic changes for the Navajo Nation over timescales of months to years based on data from 90 sites from 2002 to 2015. This research will help local water managers identify related precipitation areas within the region, compare Navajo Nation precipitation with climate indices to ascertain larger-scale atmospheric contributors to precipitation in the Four Corners region, and support future water planning in this understudied region. A vector quantization method, called k-means clustering, identified five sub-regions of contrasting precipitation climatology. The regions differed in the timing, magnitude, and relative importance of the winter and summer peaks comprising the bimodal precipitation regime of the area. Correlation examination of spatial and temporal trends of precipitation variability with three climate indices revealed strong winter precipitation relationships to the Pacific North American teleconnection pattern for all regions; summer precipitation teleconnections were weaker and more variable; however, modest correlations with Pacific Decadal Oscillation were observed. Climate field analysis indicates that cold-season precipitation is enhanced by intensification of the Aleutian Low with a storm trajectory into the southwest United States; warm season precipitation is enhanced by poleward shift of the North American monsoon ridge.

On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe - Turco, Marco; von Hardenberg, Jost; AghaKouchak, Amir; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Provenzale, Antonello; Trigo, Ricardo M. (Scientific Reports, 2017)
Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Climatic modulation of recent trends in ocean acidification in the California Current System - Turi, G.; Lachkar, Z.; Gruber, N.; Münnich, M. (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
We reconstruct the evolution of ocean acidification in the California Current System (CalCS) from 1979 through 2012 using hindcast simulations with an eddy-resolving ocean biogeochemical model forced with observation-based variations of wind and fluxes of heat and freshwater. We find that domain-wide pH and ##IMG## [http://ej.iop.org/images/1748-9326/11/1/014007/erlaa1041ieqn1.gif] {${{\rm{Ω }}}_{arag}$} in the top 60 m of the water column decreased significantly over these three decades by about −0.02 decade −1 and −0.12 decade −1 , respectively. In the nearshore areas of northern California and Oregon, ocean acidification is reconstructed to have progressed much more rapidly, with rates up to 30% higher than the domain-wide trends. Furthermore, ocean acidification penetrated substantially into the thermocline, causing a significant domain-wide shoaling of the aragonite saturation depth of on average −33 m decade −1 and up to −50 m decade −1 in the nearshore area of northern California. This resulted in a coast-wide increase in nearly undersaturated waters and the appearance of waters with ##IMG## [http://ej.iop.org/images/1748-9326/11/1/014007/erlaa1041ieqn2.gif] {${{\rm{Ω }}}_{arag}\lt 1$} , leading to a substantial reduction of habitat suitability. Averaged over the whole domain, the main driver of these trends is the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, recent changes in the climatic forcing have substantially modulated these trends regionally. This is particularly evident in the nearshore regions, where the total trends in pH are up to 50% larger and trends in ##IMG## [http://ej.iop.org/images/1748-9326/11/1/014007/erlaa1041ieqn3.gif] {${{\rm{Ω }}}_{arag}$} and in the aragonite saturation depth are even twice to three times larger than the purely atmospheric CO 2 -driven trends. This modulation in the nearshore regions is a result of the recent marked increase in alongshore wind stress, which brought elevated levels of dissolved inorganic carbon to the surface via upwelling. Our results demonstrate that changes in the climatic forcing need to be taken into consideration in future projections of the progression of ocean acidification in coastal upwelling regions.

Managing Drought: Learning From Australia - Turner, Andrea; White, Stuart; Chong, Joanne; Dickinson, Mary Ann; Cooley, Heather; Donnelly, Kristina (University of Technology, Institute for Sustainable Futures, 2016)

Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860–2100: Variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution - Turner, A. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Bauer, M. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2013)
ACP

Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part II—Reservoir Operations Assessment for Reclamation Tributary Basins - Turner, Toni; Brekke, Levi (Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Regional Office, 2011)

Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan - TVA (Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), 2014)

Co-evolution of wetland landscapes, flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain - Twilley, Robert R.; Bentley, Samuel J.; Chen, Qin; Edmonds, Douglas A.; Hagen, Scott C.; Lam, Nina S.-N.; Willson, Clinton S.; Xu, Kehui; Braud, DeWitt; Hampton Peele, R.; McCall, Annabeth (Sustainability Science, 2016)
River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L)

Cook Islands and Tokelau: Tropical Cyclone Percy - U. N. Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) Team (U. N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 2005)

Electricity Data Browser [web tool] - U. S. Energy Information Administration (EIA, Independent Statistics & Analysis, 2018)

World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. Key Findings and Advance Tables - U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017)

Report on the Goals and Objectives for Arctic Research 2013-2014 - U.S. Arctic Research Commission (U.S. Arctic Research Commission, 2013)

Gross Domestic Product by State: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2016 - U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA 17-22, 2017)

Solar Energy Development in Six Southwestern States (AZ, CA, CO, NV, NM, and UT): Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement - U.S. Bureau of Land Management; U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. Department of Energy, 2012)

Reclamation: Managing Water in the West, Climate Change Adaptation Strategy - U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 2014)

Ten U.S. Cities Now Have 1 Million People or More; California and Texas Each Have Three of These Places [Release Number: CD15-89] - U.S. Census Bureau (2015)

Data: State Population Totals Tables: 2010-2016 - U.S. Census Bureau (U.S. Census Bureau, 2016)

Measuring America: Our Changing Landscape [Infographic] - U.S. Census Bureau (U.S. Census Bureau, 2016)

QuickFacts [web tool] - U.S. Census Bureau (U.S. Census Bureau, 2016)

Monthly Population Estimates for the United States: April 1, 2010 to December 1, 2017 - U.S. Census Bureau (U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017)

American Indian and Alaska Native Heritage Month: November 2017 - U.S. Census Bureau (Facts for Features, 2017)

Table A-2. Annual Inmigration, Outmigration,Net Migration and Movers from Abroad for Regions: 1981-2017 - U.S. Census Bureau (CPS Historical Migration/Geographic Mobility Tables, 2018)

Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016 - U.S. Census Bureau American FactFinder (U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017)

United States Climate Alliance: States United for Climate Action [web site] - U.S. Climate Alliance (U.S. Climate Alliance, 2018)

Guidelines for the USDA-APHIS-PPQ Weed Risk Assessment Process - U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, 2016)

Advancing clean transportation and vehicle systems and technologies (Ch.8) - U.S. Department of Energy (Quadrennial Technology Review 2015: An Assessment of Energy Technologies and Research Opportunities, 2015)

Second Biennial Report of the United States of America - U.S. Department of State (U.S. State Department, 2016)

Enduring Leadership in a Dynamic World - U.S. Department of State; USAID (U.S. State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), 2015)

FY 2018-2022 Department of State and USAID Joint Strategic Plan - U.S. Department of State; USAID (2018)

Safeguarding America’s Lands and Waters from Invasive Species: A National Framework for Early Detection and Rapid Response - U.S. Department of the Interior (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016)

The Innovation Summit: Vision + Science + Technology = Solutions - U.S. Department of the Interior (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016)

2006 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation: North Dakota - U.S. Department of the Interior Fish and Wildlife Service; U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau (U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, 2008)

2011 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation: Montana - U.S. Department of the Interior Fish and Wildlife Service; U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau (U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, 2013)

2011 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation: Nebraska - U.S. Department of the Interior Fish and Wildlife Service; U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau (U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, 2013)

2011 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation: South Dakota - U.S. Department of the Interior Fish and Wildlife Service; U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau (U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, 2014)

2011 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation: Wyoming - U.S. Department of the Interior Fish and Wildlife Service; U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau (U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, 2014)

2011 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation - U.S. Department of the Interior Fish and Wildlife Service; U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau (U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, 2014)

U.S. Department of Transportation Climate Adaptation Plan: Ensuring Transportation Infrastructure and System Resilience - U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2014)

Traffic Volume Trends: December 2015 - U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT, Office of Highway Policy Information, 2015)

Beyond Traffic: 2045 - U.S. Department of Transportation (Office of the Secretary of Transportation, 2017)

Learn more about interconnections - U.S. DOE (U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity Delivery & Energy Reliability)

Success story: Economic disaster recovery—The calm after the storm - U.S. EDA (EDA Newsroom, 2017)

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit: Environment and Natural Resources [web page] - U.S. Federal Government (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016)
Keywords: added by ERG

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit: Coastal Erosion [web page] - U.S. Federal Government (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016)
Keywords: added by ERG

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit: Quinault Indian Nation Plans for Village Relocation [web site] - U.S. Federal Government (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017)

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit: Tribal Nations [web site] - U.S. Federal Government (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017)

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit: Oyster Growers Prepare for Changing Ocean Chemistry [web page] - U.S. Federal Government (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017)

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit: A Record of Change: Science and Elder Observations on the Navajo Nation [web site] - U.S. Federal Government (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017)

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit [web site] - U.S. Federal Government (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018)

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit: Case Studies [web site] - U.S. Federal Government (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018)

Fortifying Chicago's Urban Forest [web site] - U.S. Federal Government (United States Global Change Research Program, 2018)

Endangered and threatened wildlife and plants; determination of threatened status for the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) throughout its range; Final rule - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Federal Register, 2008)

Endangered and threatened wildlife and plants; 12-month finding on a petition to list the American pika as threatened or endangered; Proposed rule - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Federal Register, 2010)

Biological Carbon Sequestration Accomplishments Report 2009-2013 - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Wildlife Refuge System, 2014)

The Rising Cost of Wildfire Operations: Effects on the Forest Service’s Non-Fire Work - U.S. Forest Service (USDA, Forest Service, 2015)

Climate Change Adaptation: DOD Can Improve Infrastructure Planning and Processes to Better Account for Potential Impacts - U.S. GAO (U. S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), 2014)

Coast Guard: Arctic Strategy Is Underway, but Agency Could Better Assess How Its Actions Mitigate Known Arctic Capability Gaps - U.S. GAO (U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2016)

Gap Analysis Program (GAP): National Land Cover, Version 2. - U.S. Geological Survey (U.S. Geological Survey, 2011)

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) [web tool] - U.S. Geological Survey (USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, 2018)

The United States Navy Arctic Roadmap for 2014 to 2030 - U.S. Navy (Navy's Task Force Climate Change, 2014)

August 14, 2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada: Causes and Recommendations. Final Report - U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force (U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force, 2004)

The Role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability - Ubilava, David (University of Sydney, School of Economics, 2016)
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts the supply and, to some extent, the demand for primary commodities. But what are the consequences of this climatic phenomenon for these commodity price dynamics? I consider monthly series of 43 primary commodity prices and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Nino3.4 region from January 1980 to December 2016. The SST anomalies serve as a proxy for ENSO, as persistent positive (negative) SST deviations from their historical mean are associated with El Nino (La Nina) events. I apply a family of time-varying smooth transition autoregressive models to account for potentially complex dynamic relationships between SST anomalies and prices. Overall, the estimated nonlinearities bring out more amplified price responses during El Nino events, and at the onset of the ENSO cycle. I find statistically significant linkages between SST anomalies and a subset of agricultural commodity prices. This in-sample fit manifests in a forecasting environment for the commodities produced in the tropics. While I also find some in-sample evidence for prices of selected nonagricultural commodities, e.g., timber and metals, the ability of SST anomalies to predict these commodity prices in an out-of-sample setting is lacking. These findings carry important welfare implications, especially for developing economies that have been historically linked to the behavior of primary commodity prices, and offer valuable insights to policy makers working in areas related to economic growth and foreign aid programs, as well as those concerned with issues of farm income and rural poverty.
Keywords: Commodity Prices El Niño Southern Oscillation Nonlinear Dynamics Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregression

The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future - Udall, Bradley; Overpeck, Jonathan (Water Resources Research, 2017)
Keywords: Colorado River Basin climate change Colorado River Compact megadrought 1807 Climate impacts 1812 Drought 1833 Hydroclimatology 1880 Water management

Potential population-level effects of increased haulout-related mortality of Pacific walrus calves - Udevitz, Mark S.; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Garlich-Miller, Joel L.; Quakenbush, Lori T.; Snyder, Jonathan A. (Polar Biology, 2013)

Using participatory modeling to enable local innovation through complexity governance - Uebelherr, Joshua; Hondula, David M.; Johnston, Erik W. (Innovation Networks for Regional Development: Concepts, Case Studies, and Agent-Based Models, 2017)
Societies are addressing increasingly complex governance challenges that necessitate collaboration between many organizations. Harnessing the emergent abilities of these collective efforts requires new administrative strategies and techniques, but if done well also provides promise for addressing important social challenges. In Maricopa County Arizona the Department of Public Health reports 632 confirmed heat-associated deaths from 2006 to 2013. In response, public health and other organizations coordinate across the County with a collection of public and private organizations and non-profit groups to provide services for heat relief as cooling centers during the summer. Here we show how participatory modeling can be used as a tool to enable this ad-hoc collaborative network to self-organize to provide more efficient service. The voluntary nature of the network imposes a structure on cooling service provision as the locations and open hours of centers are largely based on other ongoing operations. There are consequently both gaps and redundancies in spatial and temporal cooling center availability that exist when the network is examined from a system perspective. Over the last year, we engaged members of the heat relief community in central Arizona in a participatory modeling effort to help improve a simple prototype agent-based model that visualizes relevant components of the regional Heat Relief Network’s function. Through this process, the members developed systemic awareness of both the challenges and opportunities of coordination across the network. This effort helped network members begin to see cooling centers from a systems perspective, leverage their ability to see dynamic cooling center availability spatially and temporally and thus increase opportunities to align services along both dimensions. Our collaboration with the Heat Relief Network in central Arizona highlights participatory modeling as an innovative means for translating evidence to practice and facilitating knowledge dissemination, two important elements for successful applications on complexity governance.

Drinking-water treatment, climate change, and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater - Uejio, Christopher K.; Christenson, Megan; Moran, Colleen; Gorelick, Mark (Hydrogeology Journal, 2017)
This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age <5 years) from period 2046–2065 compared to 1991–2010. The northern Wisconsin (USA) study focused on municipalities distributing untreated groundwater. A time-series analysis first quantified the observed (1991–2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991–2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011–2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: ∼1.5%, range: −3.6–4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼3.0%, range: 0.2–7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼82.0%, range: 82.0–83.0%).

Intra-urban societal vulnerability to extreme heat: The role of heat exposure and the built environment, socioeconomics, and neighborhood stability - Uejio, C.K.; Wilhelmi, O.V.; Golden, J.S.; Mills, D.M.; Gulino, S.P.; Samenow, J.P. (Health & Place, 2011)

Multiple health benefits of urban tree canopy: The mounting evidence for a green prescription - Ulmer, Jared M.; Wolf, Kathleen L.; Backman, Desiree R.; Tretheway, Raymond L.; Blain, Cynthia J. A.; O’Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P. M.; Frank, Lawrence D. (Health & Place, 2016)
Keywords: Tree canopy Urban forest Built environment General health Obesity Psychosocial

The Business Case for Responsible Corporate Adaptation: Strengthening Private Sector and Community Resilience - UN Global Compact (United Nations Global Compact, 2015)

Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise - Underwood, B. Shane; Guido, Zack; Gudipudi, Padmini; Feinberg, Yarden (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Paving the Way for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Guidance for Practitioners and Planners - UNDP (United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2011)

Collaborating for Resilience—Partnerships That Builds Disaster-Resilient Communities and Economies - UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Finance Initiative, 2015)

Loss and Damage: The role of Ecosystem Services - UNEP (UN Environment Programme (UNEP), 2016)
ISBN: 9789280735529

What is intangible cultural heritage? - UNESCO (UNESCO’s Intangible Heritage Section, 2018)

Paris Agreement - UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015)

Paris Agreement—Status of ratification - UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2018)

Climate and the northern distribution limits of Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) - Ungerer, Matthew J.; Ayres, Matthew P.; Lombardero, María J. (Journal of Biogeography, 1999)
Keywords: Dendroctonus frontalis lower lethal temperature distribution southern forest Geographic Information System global change climatic variance

Urbanization and Development: Emerging Futures. World Cities report 2016 - UN-Habitat (United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), 2016)
ISBN: 978-92-1-132708-3

The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas - Union of Concerned Scientists (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2016)

Global Assessment Report (GAR) on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - UNISDR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), 2015)
ISBN: 978-92-1-132042-8

Glossary of Environmental Statistics - United Nations (United Nations, 1997)

Small Island Developing States: Small Islands Big(ger) Stakes - UN-OHRLLS (Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS), 2011)

Exposure to extreme heat events is associated with increased hay fever prevalence among nationally representative sample of US adults: 1997-2013 - Upperman, Crystal Romeo; Parker, Jennifer D.; Akinbami, Lara J.; Jiang, Chengsheng; He, Xin; Murtugudde, Raghuram; Curriero, Frank C.; Ziska, Lewis; Sapkota, Amir (Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology: In Practice, 2017)
Keywords: Allergy Allergic rhinitis Climate change Extreme heat events Extreme weather events Hay fever

The injustice of Atlantic City’s floods - Upton, John (Climate Central, 2017)

Breathing fire: Health is a causality of California’s climate-fueled blazes - Upton, John (Climate Central News, 2017)

Climate Change and Cities. Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network. Summary for City Leaders - Urban Climate Change Research Network (Columbia University, 2015)
Keywords: urban climate change

The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios - Urban, Daniel W.; Sheffield, Justin; Lobell, David B. (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO 2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO 2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century.

Accelerating extinction risk from climate change - Urban, Mark C. (Science, 2015)
There is great interest in understanding how species might respond to our changing climate, but predictions have varied greatly. Urban looked at over 130 studies to identify the level of risk that climate change poses to species and the specific traits and characteristics that contribute to risk (see the Perspective by Hille Ris Lambers). If climate changes proceed as expected, one in six species could face extinction. Several regions, including South America, Australia, and New Zealand, face the greatest risk. Understanding these patterns will help us to prepare for, and hopefully prevent, climate-related loss of biodiversity.Science, this issue p. 571; see also p. 501Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change–induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change - Urban, M. C.; Bocedi, G.; Hendry, A. P.; Mihoub, J.-B.; Pe’er, G.; Singer, A.; Bridle, J. R.; Crozier, L. G.; De Meester, L.; Godsoe, W.; Gonzalez, A.; Hellmann, J. J.; et al. (Science, 2016)
BACKGROUNDAs global climate change accelerates, one of the most urgent tasks for the coming decades is to develop accurate predictions about biological responses to guide the effective protection of biodiversity. Predictive models in biology provide a means for scientists to project changes to species and ecosystems in response to disturbances such as climate change. Most current predictive models, however, exclude important biological mechanisms such as demography, dispersal, evolution, and species interactions. These biological mechanisms have been shown to be important in mediating past and present responses to climate change. Thus, current modeling efforts do not provide sufficiently accurate predictions. Despite the many complexities involved, biologists are rapidly developing tools that include the key biological processes needed to improve predictive accuracy. The biggest obstacle to applying these more realistic models is that the data needed to inform them are almost always missing. We suggest ways to fill this growing gap between model sophistication and information to predict and prevent the most damaging aspects of climate change for life on Earth.ADVANCESOn the basis of empirical and theoretical evidence, we identify six biological mechanisms that commonly shape responses to climate change yet are too often missing from current predictive models: physiology; demography, life history, and phenology; species interactions; evolutionary potential and population differentiation; dispersal, colonization, and range dynamics; and responses to environmental variation. We prioritize the types of information needed to inform each of these mechanisms and suggest proxies for data that are missing or difficult to collect. We show that even for well-studied species, we often lack critical information that would be necessary to apply more realistic, mechanistic models. Consequently, data limitations likely override the potential gains in accuracy of more realistic models. Given the enormous challenge of collecting this detailed information on millions of species around the world, we highlight practical methods that promote the greatest gains in predictive accuracy. Trait-based approaches leverage sparse data to make more general inferences about unstudied species. Targeting species with high climate sensitivity and disproportionate ecological impact can yield important insights about future ecosystem change. Adaptive modeling schemes provide a means to target the most important data while simultaneously improving predictive accuracy.OUTLOOKStrategic collections of essential biological information will allow us to build generalizable insights that inform our broader ability to anticipate species’ responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. By increasing accuracy and making uncertainties explicit, scientists can deliver improved projections for biodiversity under climate change together with characterizations of uncertainty to support more informed decisions by policymakers and land managers. Toward this end, a globally coordinated effort to fill data gaps in advance of the growing climate-fueled biodiversity crisis offers substantial advantages in efficiency, coverage, and accuracy. Biologists can take advantage of the lessons learned from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s development, coordination, and integration of climate change projections. Climate and weather projections were greatly improved by incorporating important mechanisms and testing predictions against global weather station data. Biology can do the same. We need to adopt this meteorological approach to predicting biological responses to climate change to enhance our ability to mitigate future changes to global biodiversity and the services it provides to humans.Emerging models are beginning to incorporate six key biological mechanisms that can improve predictions of biological responses to climate change.Models that include biological mechanisms have been used to project (clockwise from top) the evolution of disease-h rboring mosquitoes, future environments and land use, physiological responses of invasive species such as cane toads, demographic responses of penguins to future climates, climate-dependent dispersal behavior in butterflies, and mismatched interactions between butterflies and their host plants. Despite these modeling advances, we seldom have the detailed data needed to build these models, necessitating new efforts to collect the relevant data to parameterize more biologically realistic predictive models.New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity - Urban, Nathan M.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Sriver, Ryan L.; Keller, Klaus (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Equilibrium climate sensitivity measures the long‐term response of surface temperature to changes in atmospheric CO2. The range of climate sensitivities in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report is unchanged from that published almost 30 years earlier in the Charney Report. We conduct perfect model experiments using an energy balance model to study the rate at which uncertainties might be reduced by observation of global temperature and ocean heat uptake. We find that a climate sensitivity of 1.5°C can be statistically distinguished from 3°C by 2030, 3°C from 4.5°C by 2040, and 4.5°C from 6°C by 2065. Learning rates are slowest in the scenarios of greatest concern (high sensitivities), due to a longer ocean response time, which may have bearing on wait‐and‐see versus precautionary mitigation policies. Learning rates are optimistic in presuming the availability of whole ocean heat data but pessimistic by using simple aggregated metrics and model physics.

Perils of climate change could swamp coastal real estate - Urbina, Ian (New York Times, 2016)

Technical note: Effects of adding shade and fans to a feedbunk sprinkler system for preparturient cows on health and performance - Urdaz, J. H.; Overton, M. W.; Moore, D. A.; Santos, J. E. P. (Journal of Dairy Science, 2006)

Measuring the co-benefits of climate change mitigation - Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Herrero, Sergio Tirado; Dubash, Navroz K.; Lecocq, Franck (Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2014)
Co-benefits rarely enter quantitative decision-support frameworks, often because the methodologies for their integration are lacking or not known. This review fills in this gap by providing comprehensive methodological guidance on the quantification of co-impacts and their integration into climate-related decision making based on the literature. The article first clarifies the confusion in the literature about related terms and makes a proposal for a more consistent terminological framework, then emphasizes the importance of working in a multiple-objective–multiple-impact framework. It creates a taxonomy of co-impacts and uses this to propose a methodological framework for the identification of the key co-impacts to be assessed for a given climate policy and to avoid double counting. It reviews the different methods available to quantify and monetize different co-impacts and introduces three methodological frameworks that can be used to integrate these results into decision making. On the basis of an initial assessment of selected studies, it also demonstrates that the incorporation of co-impacts can significantly change the outcome of economic assessments. Finally, the review calls for major new research and innovation toward simplified evaluation methods and streamlined tools for more widely applicable appraisals of co-impacts for decision making.
Keywords: multiple benefits,co-benefits,adverse side effects,risks,co-impacts,quantification,social cost-benefit analysis,multicriteria analysis,integrated assessment models,decision support

US Climate Variability & Predictability Program Science Plan - US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee (US CLIVAR Project Office, 2013)

Alaska Village Erosion Technical Assistance Program: An Examination of Erosion Issues in the Communities of Bethel, Dillingham, Kaktovik, Kivalina, Newtok, Shishmaref, and Unalakleet - USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Alaska District, 2006)

Revised Environmental Assessment: Finding of No Significant Impact: Newtok Evacuation Center: Mertarvik, Nelson Island, Alaska - USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Alaska District, 2008)

Section 117 Project Fact Sheet. Alaska Baseline Erosion Assessment, Erosion Information Paper - USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Alaska District, 2008)

Alaska Baseline Erosion Assessment: Study Findings and Technical Report - USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Alaska District, 2009)

Event Study: 2012 Low-Water and Mississippi River Lock 27 Closures - USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), 2013)

North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study: Resilient Adaptation to Increasing Risk - USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), North Atlantic Division, 2015)

Sea-Level Change Curve Calculator (Version 2017.55) [web tool] - USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2017)

Addressing Climate Change Impacts on Infrastructure: Preparing for Change—Overview - USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), 2012)

Building Resilience to Recurrent Crisis: USAID Policy and Program Guidance - USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development, 2012)

USG [U.S. Government] Humanitarian Assistance for Typhoon Yolanda/Haiyan - USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), 2014)

Water Security for Resilient Economic Growth and Stability (Be Secure) Project - USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), 2016)

USAID Climate Action Review: 2010-2016 - USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development, 2016)

Climate Risk Management for USAID Projects and Activities: A Mandatory Reference for ADS Chapter 201 - USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), 2017)

United States Coast Guard Arctic strategy - USCG (U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) Headquarters, 2013)

Strategic Plan: FY 2010-2015 - USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 2010)

USDA Climate Change Science Plan - USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 2010)

2012 Census of Agriculture - USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2014)

2012 Census of Agriculture: Specialty Crops - USDA (USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2015)

USDA Integrated Projections for Agriculture and Forest Sector Land Use Land-Use Change, and GHG Emissions and Removals: 2015 to 2060 - USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Office of the Chief Economist, 2016)

Climate Change: Cover Crops and Soil Health - USDA (USDA National Resources Conversation Service, 2017)

Census of Agriculture. 2012 Census Volume 1, Chapter 2: State Level Data - USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2018)

Rural Employment and Unemployment - USDA ERS (USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS), 2017)

Future of America's Forests and Rangelands: Update to the 2010 Resources Planning Act Assessment - USDA Forest Service (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 2016)

2014 Quadrennial Fire Review: Final Report - USDA Forest Service; DOI Office of Wildland Fire (Booz Allen Hamilton, 2015)

Statistics by State [web site] - USDA-NASS (USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS), 2017)

Urban Sustainability Directors Network [web site] - USDN (2018)

Texas: Transportation by the Numbers - USDOT (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2016)

The National Global Change Research Plan 2012–2021: A Strategic Plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program - USGCRP (The U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2012)

NCAnet: Building a Network of Networks to Support the National Climate Assessment - USGCRP (2013)

Technical Inputs of the Third National Climate Assessment - USGCRP (2014)

U.S. Global Change Research Program General Decisions Regarding Climate-Related Scenarios for Framing the Fourth National Climate Assessment - USGCRP (2015)

The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment - USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016)

[National Climate Assessment] Indicators - USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017)

Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I - USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017)

Regional Engagement Workshop Summary Report: Midwest Region - USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017)

The National Global Change Research Plan 2012-2021: A Triennial Update - USGCRP (2017)

Reports from the NCA4 Regional Engagement Workshops - USGCRP (2017)

Regional Engagement Workshop Summary Report: Northern Great Plains Region - USGCRP (U.S. Global Research Program, 2017)

Scenarios for Climate Assessment and Adaptation: LOCA Viewer [web tool] - USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017)

Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report - USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018)

Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II - USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018)

Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II: Report-in-Brief - USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018)

Guidelines For Determining Flood Flow Frequency: Bulletin 17B - USGS (U.S. Geological Survey, 1982)

United Tribes Technical College Report to the 4th National Climate Assessment - UTTC (United Tribes Technical College (UTTC), 2016)

Compound hazards yield Louisiana flood - Vahedifard, Farshid; AghaKouchak, Amir; Jafari, Navid H. (Science, 2016)

Drought threatens California's levees - Vahedifard, Farshid; AghaKouchak, Amir; Robinson, Joe D. (Science, 2015)

Can protracted drought undermine the structural integrity of California's earthen levees? - Vahedifard, Farshid; Robinson, Joe D.; AghaKouchak, Amir (Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2016)

Resilience of MSE walls with marginal backfill under a changing climate: Quantitative assessment for extreme precipitation events - Vahedifard, Farshid; Tehrani, Faraz S.; Galavi, Vahid; Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir (Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2017)
Climate change is expected to alter statistics of extreme events in the future. Adapting geotechnical infrastructure to a changing climate necessitates quantitative assessment of the potential climate change impacts on the performance of infrastructure. This study numerically investigates the hydromechanical response of a mechanically stabilized earth (MSE) wall constructed with marginal backfill to extreme rainfall events under a changing climate. The need for investigating the effects of extreme precipitation on marginal backfill is more pronounced because larger matric suction can be developed in such backfills. To address this need, this paper compares the performance of an MSE wall using two sets of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, denoted as baseline and projected, for the Seattle area. The baseline IDF curves are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and currently used for design purposes, and the projected IDF curves are obtained using 20 climate model simulations of the future. The results show that use of the baseline IDFs can lead to underestimation of the wall deformation and loads carried by reinforcements. The results highlight the importance of site-specific assessments to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on the performance of current and future MSE walls. Such consideration gains even more importance considering the increasing interest in using marginal backfills in earth retaining structures due to economic and environmental considerations.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California - Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.; Ban-Weiss, G. (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling. Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using ‘cool photovoltaics’.

Assessing landscape vulnerability to wildfire in the USA - Vaillant, Nicole M.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Smith, Alistair M. S. (Current Forestry Reports, 2016)
Wildfire is an ever present, natural process shaping landscapes. Having the ability to accurately measure and predict wildfire occurrence and impacts to ecosystem goods and services, both retrospectively and prospectively, is critical for adaptive management of landscapes. Landscape vulnerability is a concept widely utilized in the ecosystem management literature that has not been explicitly defined, particularly with regard to wildfire. Vulnerability more broadly is defined by three primary components: exposure to the stressor, sensitivity to a range of stressor variability, and resilience following exposure. In this synthesis, we define vulnerability in the context of wildfire. We first identify the components of a guiding framework for a vulnerability assessment with respect to wildfire. We then address retrospective assessments of wildfire vulnerability and the data that have been developed and utilized to complete these assessments. Finally, we review the modeling efforts that allow for predictive and probabilistic assessment of future vulnerability. Throughout the synthesis, we highlight gaps in the research, data availability, and models used to complete vulnerability assessments.

How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: A focus on effects at National Parks - Val Martin, M.; Heald, C. L.; Lamarque, J. F.; Tilmes, S.; Emmons, L. K.; Schichtel, B. A. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2015)

In search of a real definition of the biological invasion phenomenon itself - Valéry, Loïc; Fritz, Hervé; Lefeuvre, Jean-Claude; Simberloff, Daniel (Biological Invasions, 2008)
The many qualifying terms attributed to invasive species reveal the lack of precision surrounding the notion of biological invasion itself. In spite of several proposed definitions, some basic disagreements persist concerning characterization of the phenomenon. These primarily arise from the lack of pertinence of both of the main current criteria—the geographic (or biogeographic) criterion and the impact criterion—to what is really intended by “invasion.” Faced with this situation, it seems preferable to adopt an ontological approach allowing a return to the basic principles of the elaboration of a definition. Starting with the nature of the phenomenon itself (i.e., its essence), we try to elucidate the notion of biological invasion and we suggest a general definition compatible with most of the ideas already expressed.

Spatial and temporal variability of sea level rise hot spots over the eastern United States - Valle-Levinson, Arnoldo; Dutton, Andrea; Martin, Jonathan B. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
Regional sea level rise (SLR) acceleration during the past few decades north of Cape Hatteras has commonly been attributed to weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, although this causal link remains debated. In contrast to this pattern, we demonstrate that SLR decelerated north of Cape Hatteras and accelerated south of the Cape to >20 mm/yr, > 3 times the global mean values from 2011 to 2015. Tide gauge records reveal comparable short-lived, rapid SLR accelerations (hot spots) that have occurred repeatedly over ~1500 km stretches of the coastline during the past 95 years, with variable latitudinal position. Our analysis indicates that the cumulative (time-integrated) effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation determine the latitudinal position of these SLR hot spots, while a cumulative El Niño index is associated with their timing. The superposition of these two ocean-atmospheric processes accounts for 87% of the variance in the spatiotemporal pattern of intradecadal sea level oscillations.

Response of the large-scale structure of the atmosphere to global warming - Vallis, Geoffrey K.; Zurita-Gotor, Pablo; Cairns, Cameron; Kidston, Joseph (Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2015)
Keywords: general circulation global warming westerlies climate change

Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change - Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; González, Grizelle; Scholl, Martha A. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2017)
ACP

Climate change and water resources in a tropical island system: Propagation of uncertainty from statistically downscaled climate models to hydrologic models - Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Gould, William A.; Terando, Adam J.; Collazo, Jaime A. (International Journal of Climatology, 2016)
Keywords: future water supply general circulation models hydrology Precipitation Runoff Modelling System Puerto Rico statistical downscaling tropical island hydrology

A regime shift in Lake Superior ice cover, evaporation, and water temperature following the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998 - Van Cleave, Katherine; Lenters, John D.; Wang, Jia; Verhamme, Edward M. (Limnology and Oceanography, 2014)

The Oklahoma Mesonet: A pilot study of environmental sensor data citations - Van der Veer Martens, Betsy; Illston, Bradley G.; Fiebrich, Christopher A. (Data Science Journal, 2017)

Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change - van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Whan, K.; Philip, S.; Vecchi, G. A.; Singh, R. K.; Arrighi, J.; Cullen, H. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2017)

The state and the threat of cascading failure across critical infrastructures: The implications of empirical evidence from media incident reports - Van Eeten, Michel; Nieuwenhuijs, Albert; Luiijf, Eric; Klaver, Marieke; Cruz, Edite (Public Administration, 2011)

The effects of trap fisheries on the populations of Caribbean spiny lobster and reef fish species at the Saba Bank - van Gerwen, Imke (Animal Sciences Group, Aquaculture and Fisheries Group, 2013)

Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement - van Hooidonk, Ruben; Maynard, Jeffrey; Tamelander, Jerker; Gove, Jamison; Ahmadia, Gabby; Raymundo, Laurie; Williams, Gareth; Heron, Scott F.; Planes, Serge (Scientific Reports, 2016)
Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited.

Surface-based convective potential in the contiguous United States in a business-as-usual future climate - Van Klooster, Sara L.; Roebber, Paul J. (Journal of Climate, 2009)
To date, neither observational studies nor direct climate model simulations have been able to document trends in the frequency or severity of deep moist convection associated with global climate change. The lack of such evidence is not unexpected as the observational record is insufficiently long and computational limitations prevent modeling at the scales necessary to simulate explicitly such phenomena. Nonetheless, severe deep moist convection represents an important aspect of regional climate, particularly in the central United States, where damage, injuries, and fatalities are a frequent result of such phenomena. Accordingly, any comprehensive assessment of the regional effects of climate change must account for these effects. In this work, the authors present a “perfect prog” approach to estimating the potential for surface-based convective initiation and severity based upon the large-scale variables well resolved by climate model simulations. This approach allows for the development of a stable estimation scheme that can be applied to any climate model simulation, presently and into the future. The scheme is applied for the contiguous United States using the output from the Parallel Climate Model, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change third assessment A2 (business as usual) as input. For this run, relative to interannual variability, the potential frequency of deep moist convection does not change, but the potential for severe convection is found to increase east of the Rocky Mountains and most notably in the “tornado alley” region of the U.S. Midwest. This increase in severe potential is mostly tied to increases in thermodynamic instability as a result of ongoing warm season surface warming and moistening. Finally, approaches toward improving such estimation methods are briefly discussed.
Keywords: Convection,Surface observations,Climate change,CAPE,Neural networks

Does prescribed fire promote resistance to drought in low elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA? - van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Caprio, Anthony C.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Das, Adrian J. (Fire Ecology: The Journal of the Association for Fire Ecology, 2016)

Duration of fuels reduction following prescribed fire in coniferous forests of U.S. national parks in California and the Colorado Plateau - van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Lalemand, Laura B.; Keifer, MaryBeth; Kane, Jeffrey M. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2016)
Keywords: Fire effects Fire modeling Forest management Fuels treatments

Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States - Van Mantgem, P. J.; Stephenson, N. L.; Byrne, J. C.; Daniels, L. D.; Franklin, J. F.; Fule, P. Z.; Harmon, M. E.; Larson, A. J.; Smith, J. M.; Taylor, A. H.; Veblen, T. T. (Science, 2009)

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017 - van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; van der Wiel, Karin; Sebastian, Antonia; Singh, Roop; Arrighi, Julie; Otto, Friederike; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Vecchi, Gabriel; Cullen, Heidi (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
During August 25–30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26–28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. It was an extremely rare event: the return period of the highest observed three-day precipitation amount, 1043.4 mm 3dy −1 at Baytown, is more than 9000 years (97.5% one-sided confidence interval) and return periods exceeded 1000 yr (750 mm 3dy −1 ) over a large area in the current climate. Observations since 1880 over the region show a clear positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation of between 12% and 22%, roughly two times the increase of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere expected for 1 °C warming according to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. This would indicate that the moisture flux was increased by both the moisture content and stronger winds or updrafts driven by the heat of condensation of the moisture. We also analysed extreme rainfall in the Houston area in three ensembles of 25 km resolution models. The first also shows 2 × CC scaling, the second 1 × CC scaling and the third did not have a realistic representation of extreme rainfall on the Gulf Coast. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%–19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5–5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. And while fortifying Houston to fully withstand the impact of an event as extreme as Hurricane Harvey may not be economically feasible, it is critical that information regarding the increasing risk of extreme rainfall events in general should be part of the discussion about future improvements to Houston’s flood protection system.

Shifting paradigms in restoration of the world's coral reefs - van Oppen, Madeleine J. H.; Gates, Ruth D.; Blackall, Linda L.; Cantin, Neal; Chakravarti, Leela J.; Chan, Wing Y.; Cormick, Craig; Crean, Angela; Damjanovic, Katarina; Epstein, Hannah; Harrison, Peter L.; Jones, Thomas A.; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Many ecosystems around the world are rapidly deteriorating due to both local and global pressures, and perhaps none so precipitously as coral reefs. Management of coral reefs through maintenance (e.g., marine-protected areas, catchment management to improve water quality), restoration, as well as global and national governmental agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., the 2015 Paris Agreement) is critical for the persistence of coral reefs. Despite these initiatives, the health and abundance of corals reefs are rapidly declining and other solutions will soon be required. We have recently discussed options for using assisted evolution (i.e., selective breeding, assisted gene flow, conditioning or epigenetic programming, and the manipulation of the coral microbiome) as a means to enhance environmental stress tolerance of corals and the success of coral reef restoration efforts. The 2014-2016 global coral bleaching event has sharpened the focus on such interventionist approaches. We highlight the necessity for consideration of alternative (e.g., hybrid) ecosystem states, discuss traits of resilient corals and coral reef ecosystems, and propose a decision tree for incorporating assisted evolution into restoration initiatives to enhance climate resilience of coral reefs.
Keywords: global warming restoration assisted evolution hybrid ecosystems rehabilitation scleractinia

Emergent crowns and light-use complementarity lead to global maximum biomass and leaf area in Sequoia sempervirens forests - Van Pelt, Robert; Sillett, Stephen C.; Kruse, William A.; Freund, James A.; Kramer, Russell D. (Forest Ecology and Management, 2016)
Keywords: Old growth Forest structure Biomass LAI Leaf area Carbon sequestration LiDAR Emergent trees Heartwood Allometric equations Light-use complementarity

An introduction and overview of the Bering Sea Project: Volume IV - Van Pelt, Thomas I.; Napp, Jeffrey M.; Ashjian, Carin J.; Harvey, H. Rodger; Lomas, Michael W.; Sigler, Michael F.; Stabeno, Phyllis J. (Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2016)

Projecting Climate Effects on Birds and Reptiles of the Southwestern United States - van Riper, Charles, III; Hatten, James R.; Giermakowski, J. Tom; Mattson, David; Holmes, Jennifer A.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Nowak, Erika M.; Ironside, Kirsten; Peters, Michael; Heinrich, Paul; Cole, K. L.; Truettner, C.; et al. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2014)

Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change - van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P. (Global Environmental Change, 2016)
Keywords: Water resources Water temperature Hydropower Cooling water Climate change Global hydrological models

Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources - van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Wiberg, David; Leduc, Sylvain; Riahi, Keywan (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C - van Vuuren, D.P.; Deetman, S.; den Elzen, M.G.J.; Hof, A.; Isaac, M.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Kram, T.; Mendoza Beltran, A.; Stehfest, E.; van Vliet, J. (Climatic Change, 2011)

The representative concentration pathways: An overview - van Vuuren, D.P.; Edmonds, J.; Kainuma, M.; Riahi, K.; Thomson, A.; Hibbard, K.; Hurtt, G.C.; Kram, T.; Krey, V.; Lamarque, J.F. (Climatic Change, 2011)

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities - van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Riahi, Keywan; Moss, Richard; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Kram, Tom; Berkhout, Frans; Swart, Rob; Janetos, Anthony; Rose, Steven K.; Arnell, Nigel (Global Environmental Change, 2012)
Keywords: Climate change Scenario analysis Integrated assessment Mitigation Adaptation Climate impacts

Projected impacts of climate change on three freshwater fishes and potential novel competitive interactions - Van Zuiden, Thomas M.; Chen, Miranda M.; Stefanoff, Samantha; Lopez, Lianna; Sharma, Sapna (Diversity and Distributions, 2016)
Aim As global air temperatures continue to rise in response to climate change, environmental conditions for many freshwater fish species will change. Warming air temperatures may lead to warming lake temperatures, and subsequently, the availability of suitable thermal habitat space. Our objectives are to identify the responses of three fish species from three thermal guilds to climate change in Ontario and consequently, the potential for novel competitive interactions between two top predators. We focus on lakes in Ontario because it is a dynamic region that encapsulates the northern and southern range extents of warm and cold‐water fish species. Location Ontario, Canada. Methods Using lake morphology, water chemistry, climate and fish occurrence data for smallmouth bass (warmwater predator), walleye (coolwater predator) and cisco (cold‐water forage fish), we modelled the occurrence rates of three fish in 2050 and 2070 under 126 scenarios of climate change. We also calculated the percentage change in co‐occurrence of walleye and smallmouth bass in 2050 and 2070. Results Smallmouth bass occurrence rates were predicted to increase by ~306% (ranging between 55 and 422%) by 2070 relative to their current distributions. Walleye were projected to decline by 22% (−42 to a +6% change) and cisco by 26% (−7 to −47%) by 2070. By 2070, walleye–smallmouth bass co‐occurrence was predicted to increase by 11%, with walleye in central and northern Ontario at greatest vulnerability due to increased competition with smallmouth bass. Main conclusions These results highlight three unique responses to climate change: range expansion, northward range shift, and range contraction for warmwater, coolwater and cold‐water fish species, respectively. Alterations in distributions of these three ecologically important fish species may lead to shifts in fish community structure and novel species interactions in Ontario lakes, exacerbating the vulnerability of native coolwater predators to climate change.

Risks to pollinators and pollination from invasive alien species - Vanbergen, Adam J.; Espíndola, Anahí; Aizen, Marcelo A. (Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2018)
Invasive alien species modify pollinator biodiversity and the services they provide that underpin ecosystem function and human well-being. Building on the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) global assessment of pollinators and pollination, we synthesize current understanding of invasive alien impacts on pollinators and pollination. Invasive alien species create risks and opportunities for pollinator nutrition, re-organize species interactions to affect native pollination and community stability, and spread and select for virulent diseases. Risks are complex but substantial, and depend greatly on the ecological function and evolutionary history of both the invader and the recipient ecosystem. We highlight evolutionary implications for pollination from invasive alien species, and identify future research directions, key messages and options for decision-making.

Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms - Vancoppenolle, Martin; Bopp, Laurent; Madec, Gurvan; Dunne, John; Ilyina, Tatiana; Halloran, Paul R.; Steiner, Nadja (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2013)
Keywords: Arctic primary production nitrate sea ice 0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 0428 Carbon cycling 0466 Modeling 0750 Sea ice

Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA - Vano, J.A.; Scott, M.J.; Voisin, N.; Stöckle, C.O.; Hamlet, A.F.; Mickelson, K.E.B.; Elsner, M.M.G.; Lettenmaier, D.P. (Climatic Change, 2010)

Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflow - Vano, Julie A.; Udall, Bradley; Cayan, Daniel R.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Brekke, Levi D.; Das, Tapash; Hartmann, Holly C.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Hoerling, Martin; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morino, Kiyomi; Webb, Robert S.; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2014)
The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.

Hot playgrounds and children's health: A multiscale analysis of surface temperatures in Arizona, USA - Vanos, Jennifer K.; Middel, Ariane; McKercher, Grant R.; Kuras, Evan R.; Ruddell, Benjamin L. (Landscape and Urban Planning, 2016)
Objectives To provide novel quantification and advanced measurements of surface temperatures (Ts) in playgrounds, employing multiple scales of data, and provide insight into hot-hazard mitigation techniques and designs for improved environmental and public health. Methods We conduct an analysis of Ts in two Metro-Phoenix playgrounds at three scales: neighborhood (1 km resolution), microscale (6.8 m resolution), and touch-scale (1 cm resolution). Data were derived from two sources: airborne remote sensing (neighborhood and microscale) and in situ (playground site) infrared Ts (touch-scale). Metrics of surface-to-air temperature deltas (ΔTs–a) and scale offsets (errors) are introduced. Results Select in situ Ts in direct sunlight are shown to approach or surpass values likely to result in burns to children at touch-scales much finer than Ts resolved by airborne remote sensing. Scale offsets based on neighbourhood and microscale ground observations are 3.8 ̊C and 7.3 ̊C less than the ΔTs–a at the 1 cm touch-scale, respectively, and 6.6 ̊C and 10.1 ̊C lower than touch-scale playground equipment Ts, respectively. Hence, the coarser scales underestimate high Ts within playgrounds. Both natural (tree) and artificial (shade sail) shade types are associated with significant reductions in Ts. Conclusions A scale mismatch exists based on differing methods of urban Ts measurement. The sub-meter touch-scale is the spatial scale at which data must be collected and policies of urban landscape design and health must be executed in order to mitigate high Ts in high-contact environments such as playgrounds. Shade implementation is the most promising mitigation technique to reduce child burns, increase park usability, and mitigate urban heating.
Keywords: climate change urban health

Ch. 3: Impact of climate change factors on weeds and herbicide efficacy - Varanasi, Aruna; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Jugulam, Mithila (Advances in Agronomy, 2016)
Keywords: climate change crop–weed competition environmental factors greenhouse gases herbicide efficacy weed physiology weed management

Climate services for society: Origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework - Vaughan, Catherine; Dessai, Suraje (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2014)

Characteristics of Colorado forestry contractors and their role in current forest health issues - Vaughan, Damon; Mackes, Kurt (Forest Products Journal, 2015)

Observations: Cryosphere - Vaughan, D. G.; Comiso, J.C.; Allison, I.; Carrasco, J.; Kaser, G.; Kwok, R.; Mote, P.; Murray, T.; Paul, F.; Ren, J.; Rignot, E.; Solomina, O.; et al. (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

The role of ice cover in heavy lake-effect snowstorms over the Great Lakes Basin as simulated by RegCM4 - Vavrus, Steve; Notaro, Michael; Zarrin, Azar (Monthly Weather Review, 2013)
A 20-km regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4 (ICTP RegCM4), is employed to investigate heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) over the Great Lakes Basin and the role of ice cover in regulating these events. When coupled to a lake model and driven with atmospheric reanalysis data between 1976 and 2002, RegCM4 reproduces the major characteristics of HLES. The influence of lake ice cover on HLES is investigated through 10 case studies (2 per Great Lake), in which a simulated heavy lake-effect event is compared with a companion simulation having 100% ice cover imposed on one or all of the Great Lakes. These experiments quantify the impact of ice cover on downstream snowfall and demonstrate that Lake Superior has the strongest, most widespread influence on heavy snowfall and Lake Ontario the least. Ice cover strongly affects a wide range of atmospheric variables above and downstream of lakes during HLES, including snowfall, surface energy fluxes, wind speed, temperature, moisture, clouds, and air pressure. Averaged among the 10 events, complete ice coverage causes major reductions in lake-effect snowfall (>80%) and turbulent heat fluxes over the lakes (>90%), less low cloudiness, lower temperatures, and higher air pressure. Another important consequence is a consistent weakening (30%–40%) of lower-tropospheric winds over the lakes when completely frozen. This momentum reduction further decreases over-lake evaporation and weakens downstream wind convergence, thus mitigating lake-effect snowfall. This finding suggests a secondary, dynamical mechanism by which ice cover affects downstream snowfall during HLES events, in addition to the more widely recognized thermodynamic influence.
Keywords: Inland seas/lakes,Lake effects,Snowfall,Regional models

Interpreting climate model projections of extreme weather events - Vavrus, Stephen J.; Notaro, Michael; Lorenz, David J. (Weather and Climate Extremes, 2015)
Keywords: Climate Model Uncertainty CMIP Downscaled Extremes

Changes in North American atmospheric circulation and extreme weather: Influence of Arctic amplification and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - Vavrus, Stephen J.; Wang, Fuyao; Martin, Jonathan E.; Francis, Jennifer A.; Peings, Yannick; Cattiaux, Julien (Journal of Climate, 2017)
This study tests the hypothesis that Arctic amplification (AA) of global warming remotely affects midlatitudes by promoting a weaker, wavier atmospheric circulation conducive to extreme weather. The investigation is based on the late twenty-first century over greater North America (20°–90°N, 50°–160°W) using 40 simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, spanning 1920–2100. AA is found to promote regionally varying ridging aloft (500 hPa) with strong seasonal differences reflecting the location of the strongest surface thermal forcing. During winter, maximum increases in future geopotential heights are centered over the Arctic Ocean, in conjunction with sea ice loss, but minimum height increases (troughing) occur to the south, over the continental United States. During summer the location of maximum height inflation shifts equatorward, forming an annular band across mid-to-high latitudes of the entire Northern Hemisphere. This band spans the continents, whose enhanced surface heating is aided by antecedent snow-cover loss and reduced terrestrial heat capacity. Through the thermal wind relationship, midtropospheric winds weaken on the equatorward flank of both seasonal ridging anomalies—mainly over Canada during winter and even more over the continental United States during summer—but strengthen elsewhere to form a dipole anomaly pattern in each season. Changes in circulation waviness, expressed as sinuosity, are inversely correlated with changes in zonal wind speed at nearly all latitudes, both in the projections and as observed during recent decades. Over the central United States during summer, the weaker and wavier flow promotes drying and enhanced heating, thus favoring more intense summer weather.
Keywords: Atmosphere,Arctic,North America,Atmospheric circulation,Snow cover,Climate models

Housing improvement: A novel paradigm for urban vector-borne disease control? - Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M.; Lenhart, Audrey; Manrique-Saide, Pablo (Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2016)

Coupled heterogeneities and their impact on parasite transmission and control - Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M.; Perkins, T. Alex; Waller, Lance A.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Reiner, Robert C., Jr.; Scott, Thomas W.; Kitron, Uriel (Trends in Parasitology, 2016)

Trends and disparities in heart disease mortality among American Indians/Alaska Natives, 1990–2009 - Veazie, Mark; Ayala, Carma; Schieb, Linda; Dai, Shifan; Henderson, Jeffrey A.; Cho, Pyone (American Journal of Public Health, 2014)
Objectives. We evaluated heart disease death rates among American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) and Whites after improving identification of AI/AN populations.Methods. Indian Health Service (IHS) registration data were linked to the National Death Index for 1990 to 2009 to identify deaths among AI/AN persons aged 35 years and older with heart disease listed as the underlying cause of death (UCOD) or 1 of multiple causes of death (MCOD). We restricted analyses to IHS Contract Health Service Delivery Areas and to non-Hispanic populations.Results. Heart disease death rates were higher among AI/AN persons than Whites from 1999 to 2009 (1.21 times for UCOD, 1.30 times for MCOD). Disparities were highest in younger age groups and in the Northern Plains, but lowest in the East and Southwest. In AI/AN persons, MCOD rates were 84% higher than UCOD rates. From 1990 to 2009, UCOD rates declined among Whites, but only declined significantly among AI/AN persons after 2003.Conclusions. Analysis with improved race identification indicated that AI/AN populations experienced higher heart disease death rates than Whites. Better prevention and more effective care of heart disease is needed for AI/AN populations.

Climate change–related water disasters’ impact on population health - Veenema, Tener Goodwin; Thornton, Clifton P.; Lavin, Roberta Proffitt; Bender, Annah K.; Seal, Stella; Corley, Andrew (Journal of Nursing Scholarship, 2017)
Purpose Rising global temperatures have resulted in an increased frequency and severity of cyclones, hurricanes, and flooding in many parts of the world. These climate change–related water disasters (CCRWDs) have a devastating impact on communities and the health of residents. Clinicians and policymakers require a substantive body of evidence on which to base planning, prevention, and disaster response to these events. The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the literature concerning the impact of CCRWDs on public health in order to identify factors in these events that are amenable to preparedness and mitigation. Ultimately, this evidence could be used by nurses to advocate for greater preparedness initiatives and inform national and international disaster policy. Design and Methods A systematic literature review of publications identified through a comprehensive search of five relevant databases (PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature [CINAHL], Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science) was conducted using a modified Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach in January 2017 to describe major themes and associated factors of the impact of CCRWDs on population health. Findings Three major themes emerged: environmental disruption resulting in exposure to toxins, population susceptibility, and health systems infrastructure (failure to plan-prepare-mitigate, inadequate response, and lack of infrastructure). Direct health impact was characterized by four major categories: weather-related morbidity and mortality, waterborne diseases/water-related illness, vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, and psychiatric/mental health effects. Scope and duration of the event are factors that exacerbate the impact of CCRWDs. Discussion of specific factors amenable to mitigation was limited. Flooding as an event was overrepresented in this analysis (60%), and the majority of the research reviewed was conducted in high-income or upper middle-/high-income countries (62%), despite the fact that low-income countries bear a disproportionate share of the burden on morbidity and mortality from CCRWDs. Conclusions Empirical evidence related to CCRWDs is predominately descriptive in nature, characterizing the cascade of climatic shifts leading to major environmental disruption and exposure to toxins, and their resultant morbidity and mortality. There is inadequate representation of research exploring potentially modifiable factors associated with CCRWDs and their impact on population health. This review lays the foundation for a wide array of further areas of analysis to explore the negative health impacts of CCRWDs and for nurses to take a leadership role in identifying and advocating for evidence-based policies to plan, prevent, or mitigate these effects. Clinical Relevance Nurses comprise the largest global healthcare workforce and are in a position to advocate for disaster preparedness for CCRWDs, develop more robust environmental health policies, and work towards mitigating exposure to environmental toxins that may threaten human health.

U.S. Produced Water Volumes and Management Practices in 2012 - Veil, John (Groundwater Protection Council, 2015)

Microbial nursery production of high-quality biological soil crust biomass for restoration of degraded dryland soils - Velasco Ayuso, Sergio; Giraldo Silva, Ana; Nelson, Corey; Barger, Nichole N.; Garcia-Pichel, Ferran (Applied and Environmental Microbiology, 2017)
Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are slow-growing, phototroph-based microbial assemblages that develop on the topsoils of drylands. Biocrusts help maintain soil fertility and reduce erosion. Because their loss through human activities has negative ecological and environmental health consequences, biocrust restoration is of interest. Active soil inoculation with biocrust microorganisms can be an important tool in this endeavor. We present a culture-independent, two-step process to grow multispecies biocrusts in open greenhouse nursery facilities, based on the inoculation of local soils with local biocrust remnants and incubation under seminatural conditions that maintain the essence of the habitat but lessen its harshness. In each of four U.S. Southwest sites, we tested and deployed combinations of factors that maximized growth (gauged as chlorophyll a content) while minimizing microbial community shifts (assessed by 16S rRNA sequencing and bioinformatics), particularly for crust-forming cyanobacteria. Generally, doubling the frequency of natural wetting events, a 60% reduction in sunlight, and inoculation by slurry were optimal. Nutrient addition effects were site specific. In 4 months, our approach yielded crusts of high inoculum quality reared on local soil exposed to locally matched climates, acclimated to desiccation, and containing communities minimally shifted in composition from local ones. Our inoculum contained abundant crust-forming cyanobacteria and no significant numbers of allochthonous phototrophs, and it was sufficient to treat ca. 6,000 m2 of degraded dryland soils at 1 to 5% of the typical crust biomass concentration, having started from a natural crust remnant as small as 6 to 30 cm2.IMPORTANCE Soil surface crusts can protect dryland soils from erosion, but they are often negatively impacted by human activities. Their degradation causes a loss of fertility, increased production of fugitive dust and intensity of dust storms with associated traffic problems, and provokes general public health hazards. Our results constitute an advance in the quest to actively restore biological soil covers by providing a means to obtain high-quality inoculum within a reasonable time (a few months), thereby allowing land managers to recover essential, but damaged, ecosystem services in a sustainable, self-perpetuating way as provided by biocrust communities.

Salt marsh denitrification provides a significant nitrogen sink in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey - Velinsky, David J.; Paudel, Bhanu; Quirk, Tracy; Piehler, Michael; Smyth, Ashley (Journal of Coastal Research, 2017)
Keywords: Dentrification,wetland,tidal marsh,sediment oxygen demand

Risk Nexus: What Can Be Learned from the Columbia and Charleston Floods 2015? - Venkateswaran, Kanmani; MacClune, Karen; Gladfelter, Sierra; Szönyi, Michael (Post event review capability (PERC) report, 2015)
Keywords: added by ERG

Multiple driving factors explain spatial and temporal variability in coral calcification rates on the Bermuda platform - Venti, A.; Andersson, A.; Langdon, C. (Coral Reefs, 2014)
Experimental studies have shown that coral calcification rates are dependent on light, nutrients, food availability, temperature, and seawater aragonite saturation (Ω arag), but the relative importance of each parameter in natural settings remains uncertain. In this study, we applied Calcein fluorescent dyes as time indicators within the skeleton of coral colonies (n = 3) of Porites astreoides and Diploria strigosa at three study sites distributed across the northern Bermuda coral reef platform. We evaluated the correlation between seasonal average growth rates based on coral density and extension rates with average temperature, light, and seawater Ω arag in an effort to decipher the relative importance of each parameter. The results show significant seasonal differences among coral calcification rates ranging from summer maximums of 243 ± 58 and 274 ± 57 mmol CaCO3 m−2 d−1 to winter minimums of 135 ± 39 and 101 ± 34 mmol CaCO3 m−2 d−1 for P. astreoides and D. strigosa, respectively. We also placed small coral colonies (n = 10) in transparent chambers and measured the instantaneous rate of calcification under light and dark treatments at the same study sites. The results showed that the skeletal growth of D. strigosa and P. astreoides, whether hourly or seasonal, was highly sensitive to Ω arag. We believe this high sensitivity, however, is misleading, due to covariance between light and Ω arag, with the former being the strongest driver of calcification variability. For the seasonal data, we assessed the impact that the observed seasonal differences in temperature (4.0 °C), light (5.1 mol photons m−2 d−1), and Ω arag (0.16 units) would have on coral growth rates based on established relationships derived from laboratory studies and found that they could account for approximately 44, 52, and 5 %, respectively, of the observed seasonal change of 81 ± 14 mmol CaCO3 m−2 d−1. Using short-term light and dark incubations, we show how the covariance of light and Ω arag can lead to the false conclusion that calcification is more sensitive to Ω arag than it really is.

Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies - Verburg, Peter H; Neumann, Kathleen; Nol, Linda (Global Change Biology, 2011)

Seeking water while avoiding predators: Moisture gradients can affect predator–prey interactions - Verdeny-Vilalta, Oriol; Moya-Laraño, Jordi (Animal Behaviour, 2014)
Keywords: animal mobility encounter rate predator–prey interaction soil water distribution