Urban sustainability in an age of enduring inequalities: Advancing theory and ecometrics for the 21st-century city - Sampson, Robert J. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Keywords: added by ERG

Evaluating the energy consumed for water use in the United States - Sanders, Kelly T.; Webber, Michael E. (Environmental Research Letters, 2012)
This letter consists of a first-order analysis of the primary energy embedded in water in the United States. Using a combination of top-down sectoral assessments of energy use together with a bottom-up allocation of energy-for-water on a component-wise and service-specific level, our analysis concludes that energy use in the residential, commercial, industrial and power sectors for direct water and steam services was approximately 12.3 ± 0.3 quadrillion BTUs or 12.6% of the 2010 annual primary energy consumption in the United States. Additional energy was used to generate steam for indirect process heating, space heating and electricity generation.

What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets? - Sanderson, Benjamin M.; O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: emissions climate targets 1622 Earth system modeling 3305 Climate change and variability 3320 Idealized model 3333 Model calibration 6309 Decision making under uncertainty

Appendix B: Model weighting strategy - Sanderson, B.M.; Wehner, M.F. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)

Prospects for Resilience: Insights from New York City's Jamaica Bay - Sanderson, Eric W.; Solecki, William D.; Waldman, John R.; Parris, Adam S. (Island Press, 2016)

Connecting stressors, ocean ecosystem services, and human health - Sandifer, Paul A.; Sutton-Grier, Ariana E. (Natural Resources Forum, 2014)
Keywords: Environmental stressors ocean and coastal ecosystems ecosystem services human health and well-being oceans

Exploring connections among nature, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human health and well-being: Opportunities to enhance health and biodiversity conservation - Sandifer, Paul A.; Sutton-Grier, Ariana E.; Ward, Bethney P. (Ecosystem Services, 2015)
Keywords: Ecosystem service Nature Biodiversity Human health Policy Conservation

Water temperature, predation, and the neglected role of physiological rate effects in rocky intertidal communities - Sanford, Eric (Integrative and Comparative Biology, 2002)
Ecologists and physiologists working on rocky shores have emphasized the effects of environmental stress on the distribution of intertidal organisms. Although consumer stress models suggest that physical extremes may often reduce predation and herbivory through negative impacts on the physiological performance of consumers, few field studies have rigorously tested how environmental variation affects feeding rates. I review and analyze field experiments that quantified per capita feeding rates of a keystone predator, the sea star Pisaster ochraceus, in relation to aerial heat stress, wave forces, and water temperature at three rocky intertidal sites on the Oregon coast. Predation rates during 14-day periods were unrelated to aerial temperature, but decreased significantly with decreasing water temperature. There was suggestive but inconclusive evidence that predation rates also declined with increasing wave forces. Data-logger records suggested that thermal stress was rare in the wave-exposed habitats that I studied; sea star body temperatures likely reached warm levels (>24°C) on only 9 dates in 3 yr. In contrast, wind-driven upwelling regularly generated 3 to 5°C fluctuations in water temperature, and field and laboratory results suggest that such changes significantly alter feeding rates of Pisaster. These physiological rate effects, near the center of an organism's thermal range, may not reduce growth or fitness, and thus are distinct from the effects of environmental stress. This study underscores the need to consider organismal responses both under “normal” conditions, as well as under extreme conditions. Examining both kinds of responses is necessary to understand how different components of environmental variation regulate physiological performance and the strength of species interactions in intertidal communities.
10.1093/icb/42.4.881

The Age of Alaskan Wildfires - Sanford, Todd; Wang, Regina; Kenwa, Alyson (Climate Central, 2015)

Estimation of evapotranspiration across the conterminous United States using a regression with climate and land-cover data - Sanford, Ward E.; Selnick, David L. (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2013)
Keywords: evapotranspiration hydrologic cycle precipitation streamflow

Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts: Short‐term water contracts in a risk management framework - Sankarasubramanian, A.; Lall, Upmanu; Souza Filho, Francisco Assis; Sharma, Ashish (Water Resources Research, 2009)
Probabilistic, seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts are becoming increasingly available as the ability to model climate teleconnections is improving. However, water managers and practitioners have been slow to adopt such products, citing concerns with forecast skill. Essentially, a management risk is perceived in “gambling” with operations using a probabilistic forecast, while a system failure upon following existing operating policies is “protected” by the official rules or guidebook. In the presence of a prescribed system of prior allocation of releases under different storage or water availability conditions, the manager has little incentive to change. Innovation in allocation and operation is hence key to improved risk management using such forecasts. A participatory water allocation process that can effectively use probabilistic forecasts as part of an adaptive management strategy is introduced here. Users can express their demand for water through statements that cover the quantity needed at a particular reliability, the temporal distribution of the “allocation,” the associated willingness to pay, and compensation in the event of contract nonperformance. The water manager then assesses feasible allocations using the probabilistic forecast that try to meet these criteria across all users. An iterative process between users and water manager could be used to formalize a set of short‐term contracts that represent the resulting prioritized water allocation strategy over the operating period for which the forecast was issued. These contracts can be used to allocate water each year/season beyond long‐term contracts that may have precedence. Thus, integrated supply and demand management can be achieved. In this paper, a single period multiuser optimization model that can support such an allocation process is presented. The application of this conceptual model is explored using data for the Jaguaribe Metropolitan Hydro System in Ceara, Brazil. The performance relative to the current allocation process is assessed in the context of whether such a model could support the proposed short‐term contract based participatory process. A synthetic forecasting example is also used to explore the relative roles of forecast skill and reservoir storage in this framework.

Synthesis of public water supply use in the United States: Spatio-temporal patterns and socio-economic controls - Sankarasubramanian, A.; Sabo, J. L.; Larson, K. L.; Seo, S. B.; Sinha, T.; Bhowmik, R.; Vidal, A. Ruhi; Kunkel, K.; Mahinthakumar, G.; Berglund, E. Z.; Kominoski, J. (Earth's Future, 2017)
Keywords: Public water supply Water-use efficiency socio-economic conditions 1884 Water supply 1880 Water management 1871 Surface water quality 4329 Sustainable development 4318 Statistical analysis

Climate, wildfire, and erosion ensemble foretells more sediment in western USA watersheds - Sankey, Joel B.; Kreitler, Jason; Hawbaker, Todd J.; McVay, Jason L.; Miller, Mary Ellen; Mueller, Erich R.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Lowe, Scott E.; Sankey, Temuulen T. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
The area burned annually by wildfires is expected to increase worldwide due to climate change. Burned areas increase soil erosion rates within watersheds, which can increase sedimentation in downstream rivers and reservoirs. However, which watersheds will be impacted by future wildfires is largely unknown. Using an ensemble of climate, fire, and erosion models, we show that postfire sedimentation is projected to increase for nearly nine tenths of watersheds by >10% and for more than one third of watersheds by >100% by the 2041 to 2050 decade in the western USA. The projected increases are statistically significant for more than eight tenths of the watersheds. In the western USA, many human communities rely on water from rivers and reservoirs that originates in watersheds where sedimentation is projected to increase. Increased sedimentation could negatively impact water supply and quality for some communities, in addition to affecting stream channel stability and aquatic ecosystems.

Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study: Task 3.1. Development of Climate-Adjusted Hydrologic Model Inputs - Sankovich, Victoria; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom; Caldwell, R. Jason (USGS Bureau of Reclamation, 2013)

Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale - Santer, B.D.; Mears, C.; Doutriaux, C.; Caldwell, P.; Gleckler, P.J.; Wigley, T.M.L; Solomon, S.; Gillett, N.P.; Ivanova, D.; Karl, T.R.; Lanzante, J. R.; Meehl, G. A.; et al. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011)
We compare global-scale changes in satellite estimates of the temperature of the lower troposphere (TLT) with model simulations of forced and unforced TLT changes. While previous work has focused on a single period of record, we select analysis timescales ranging from 10 to 32 years, and then compare all possible observed TLT trends on each timescale with corresponding multi-model distributions of forced and unforced trends. We use observed estimates of the signal component of TLT changes and model estimates of climate noise to calculate timescale-dependent signal-to-noise ratios (S/N). These ratios are small (less than 1) on the 10-year timescale, increasing to more than 3.9 for 32-year trends. This large change in S/N is primarily due to a decrease in the amplitude of internally generated variability with increasing trend length. Because of the pronounced effect of interannual noise on decadal trends, a multi-model ensemble of anthropogenically-forced simulations displays many 10-year periods with little warming. A single decade of observational TLT data is therefore inadequate for identifying a slowly evolving anthropogenic warming signal. Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.

Tropospheric warming over the past two decades - Santer, B. D.; Soloman, S.; Wentz, F. J.; Fu, Q.; Po-Chedley, S.; Mears, C.; Painter, J. F.; Bonfils, C. (Scientific Reports, 2017)

The relative influence of change in habitat and climate on elevation range limits in small mammals in Yosemite National Park, California, U.S.A - Santos, Maria J.; Smith, Adam B.; Thorne, James H.; Moritz, Craig (Climate Change Responses, 2017)
Different processes determine species’ geographic ranges, including species’ responses to changing climate, habitat, or both simultaneously. Here we ask which combination of factors best predicts shifts in the upper and lower elevation range limits and overall range of small mammal species in Yosemite National Park, California, USA across the last 100 years.

Climate Change, Migration, and the Puget Sound Region: What We Know and How We Could Learn More - Saperstein, Alison (University of Washington, Daniel J. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, 2015)

Impact of the 2002 Canadian forest fires on particulate matter air quality in Baltimore City - Sapkota, A.; Symons, J.M.; Kleissl, J.; Wang, L.; Parlange, M.B.; Ondov, J.; Breysse, P.N.; Diette, G.B.; Eggleston, P.A.; Buckley, T.J. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2005)

Thinking beyond organism energy use: A trait-based bioenergetic mechanistic approach for predictions of life history traits in marine organisms - Sarà, Gianluca; Rinaldi, Alessandro; Montalto, Valeria (Marine Ecology, 2014)
Keywords: Dynamic energy budget model functional trait-based bioenergetic approach life history traits marine ectotherms

Ch. 2: Temperature-related death and illness - Sarofim, Marcus C.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hawkins, Michelle D.; Mills, David M.; Hess, Jeremy; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick; Schwartz, Joel; St. Juliana, Alexis (The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, 2016)

Valuing the ozone-related health benefits of methane emission controls - Sarofim, Marcus C.; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Anenberg, Susan C. (Environmental and Resource Economics, 2017)
Methane is a greenhouse gas that oxidizes to form ground-level ozone, itself a greenhouse gas and a health-harmful air pollutant. Reducing methane emissions will both slow anthropogenic climate change and reduce ozone-related mortality. We estimate the benefits of reducing methane emissions anywhere in the world for ozone-related premature mortality globally and for eight geographic regions. Our methods are consistent with those used by the US Government to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC). We find that the global short- and long-term premature mortality benefits due to reduced ozone production from methane mitigation are (2011) $790 and $1775 per tonne methane, respectively. These correspond to approximately 70 and 150 % of the valuation of methane’s global climate impacts using the SCC after extrapolating from carbon dioxide to methane using global warming potential estimates. Results for monetized benefits are sensitive to a number of factors, particularly the choice of elasticity to income growth used when calculating the value of a statistical life. The benefits increase for emission years further in the future. Regionally, most of the global mortality benefits accrue in Asia, but 10 % accrue in the United States. This methodology can be used to assess the benefits of methane emission reductions anywhere in the world, including those achieved by national and multinational policies.

Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate population change for bird conservation regions - Sauer, John R.; Fallon, Jane E.; Johnson, Rex (Journal of Wildlife Management, 2003)

How resilient are southwestern ponderosa pine forests after crown fires? - Savage, Melissa; Mast, Joy Nystrom (Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2005)

Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world - Savo, V.; Lepofsky, D.; Benner, J. P.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Bailey, J.; Lertzman, K. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)
The study of climate change has been based strongly on data collected from instruments, but how local people perceive such changes remains poorly quantified. We conducted a meta-analysis of climatic changes observed by subsistence-oriented communities. Our review of 10,660 observations from 2,230 localities in 137 countries shows that increases in temperature and changes in seasonality and rainfall patterns are widespread ([ap]70% of localities across 122 countries). Observations of increased temperature show patterns consistent with simulated trends in surface air temperature taken from the ensemble average of CMIP5 models, for the period 1955-2005. Secondary impacts of climatic changes on both wild and domesticated plants and animals are extensive and threaten the food security of subsistence-oriented communities. Collectively, our results suggest that climate change is having profound disruptive effects at local levels and that local observations can make an important contribution to understanding the pervasiveness of climate change on ecosystems and societies.

Continuing challenges in transportation adaptation - Savonis, Michael J.; Potter, Joanne R.; Snow, Cassandra B. (Current Sustainable/Renewable Energy Reports, 2014)
The serious assessment of climate change impacts on transportation is just six years old. Yet considerable progress has been made in this short time. Analytical frameworks to couple decision support for transportation decision makers at the national, regional, and local levels with the leading edge of climate science have been established and tested. A better understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities facing transportation agencies has been accomplished through a growing number of assessments. But significant gaps exist, and the full integration of climate impacts in transportation planning, design, and operations has yet to be accomplished. Adaptation planning and implementation lag except where disasters have struck. Research must play a critical role over the next decade to address societal impacts, better define critical concepts and make them useful for practitioners, and integrate climate concerns more completely in the natural and built environments across all sectors, including transportation.

Effect of temperature, relative humidity and moisture content on germination percentage of wheat stored in different storage structures - Sawant, Abhiman Arjun; Patil, S. C.; Kalse, S. B.; Thakor, N. J. (Agricultural Engineering International: CIGR Journal, 2012)

Groundwater depletion and sustainability of irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley - Scanlon, Bridget R.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Reedy, Robert C.; Alley, William M.; McGuire, Virginia L.; McMahon, Peter B. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2012)
Aquifer overexploitation could significantly impact crop production in the United States because 60% of irrigation relies on groundwater. Groundwater depletion in the irrigated High Plains and California Central Valley accounts for ∼50% of groundwater depletion in the United States since 1900. A newly developed High Plains recharge map shows that high recharge in the northern High Plains results in sustainable pumpage, whereas lower recharge in the central and southern High Plains has resulted in focused depletion of 330 km3 of fossil groundwater, mostly recharged during the past 13,000 y. Depletion is highly localized with about a third of depletion occurring in 4% of the High Plains land area. Extrapolation of the current depletion rate suggests that 35% of the southern High Plains will be unable to support irrigation within the next 30 y. Reducing irrigation withdrawals could extend the lifespan of the aquifer but would not result in sustainable management of this fossil groundwater. The Central Valley is a more dynamic, engineered system, with north/south diversions of surface water since the 1950s contributing to ∼7× higher recharge. However, these diversions are regulated because of impacts on endangered species. A newly developed Central Valley Hydrologic Model shows that groundwater depletion since the 1960s, totaling 80 km3, occurs mostly in the south (Tulare Basin) and primarily during droughts. Increasing water storage through artificial recharge of excess surface water in aquifers by up to 3 km3 shows promise for coping with droughts and improving sustainability of groundwater resources in the Central Valley.

Enhancing drought resilience with conjunctive use and managed aquifer recharge in California and Arizona - Scanlon, Bridget R.; Reedy, Robert C.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Pool, Donald; Uhlman, Kristine (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
Projected longer-term droughts and intense floods underscore the need to store more water to manage climate extremes. Here we show how depleted aquifers have been used to store water by substituting surface water use for groundwater pumpage (conjunctive use, CU) or recharging groundwater with surface water (managed aquifer recharge, MAR). Unique multi-decadal monitoring from thousands of wells and regional modeling datasets for the California Central Valley and central Arizona were used to assess CU and MAR. In addition to natural reservoir capacity related to deep water tables, historical groundwater depletion further expanded aquifer storage by ∼44 km 3 in the Central Valley and by ∼100 km 3 in Arizona, similar to or exceeding current surface reservoir capacity by up to three times. Local river water and imported surface water, transported through 100s of km of canals, is substituted for groundwater (≤15 km 3 yr −1 , CU) or is used to recharge groundwater (MAR, ≤1.5 km 3 yr −1 ) during wet years shifting to mostly groundwater pumpage during droughts. In the Central Valley, CU and MAR locally reversed historically declining water-level trends, which contrasts with simulated net regional groundwater depletion. In Arizona, CU and MAR also reversed historically declining groundwater level trends in active management areas. These rising trends contrast with current declining trends in irrigated areas that lack access to surface water to support CU or MAR. Use of depleted aquifers as reservoirs could expand with winter flood irrigation or capturing flood discharges to the Pacific (0–1.6 km 3 yr −1 , 2000–2014) with additional infrastructure in California. Because flexibility and expanded portfolio options translate to resilience, CU and MAR enhance drought resilience through multi-year storage, complementing shorter term surface reservoir storage, and facilitating water markets.

Impact of agroecosystems on groundwater resources in the Central High Plains, USA - Scanlon, B. R.; Reedy, R. C.; Gates, J. B.; Gowda, P. H. (Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2010)
Keywords: Groundwater recharge Irrigation sustainability Unsaturated zone hydrology Groundwater depletion Groundwater degradation Irrigated agriculture

Frequency of marine heatwaves in the North Atlantic and North Pacific since 1950 - Scannell, Hillary A.; Pershing, Andrew J.; Alexander, Michael A.; Thomas, Andrew C.; Mills, Katherine E. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: marine heatwave power law SST anomaly climate variability 1635 Oceans 1616 Climate variability 3235 Persistence, memory, correlations, clustering 4313 Extreme events 4318 Statistical analysis

Drought mitigation for grazing operations: Matching the animal to the environment - Scasta, John Derek; Lalman, David L.; Henderson, Leticia (Rangelands, 2016)
Keywords: beef climate efficiency integrated management rangeland variability

Droughts and wildfires in western U.S. rangelands - Scasta, John Derek; Weir, John R.; Stambaugh, Michael C. (Rangelands, 2016)
Keywords: climate cycles disturbance fire forest rangeland weather variability

An assessment of climate change in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico - Scatena, F. N. (Tropical Hydrology and Caribbean Water Resources: Proceedings, Third International Symposium on Tropical Hydrology and Fifth Caribbean Islands Water Resources Congress, 1998)

Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems - Scavia, Donald; Field, John C.; Boesch, Donald F.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Burkett, Virginia; Cayan, Daniel R.; Fogarty, Michael; Harwell, Mark A.; Howarth, Robert W.; Mason, Curt; Reed, Denise J.; Royer, Thomas C.; et al. (Estuaries, 2002)
Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.

Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils - Schädel, Christina; Bader, Martin K. F.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Biasi, Christina; Bracho, Rosvel; Capek, Petr; De Baets, Sarah; Diakova, Katerina; Ernakovich, Jessica; Estop-Aragones, Cristian; Graham, David E.; Hartley, Iain P.; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate - Schaefer, Kevin; Lantuit, Hugues; Vladimir, E. Romanovsky; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Witt, Ronald (Environmental Research Letters, 2014)
Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 ± 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 ± 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 ± 0.21 °C or 7.8 ± 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 °C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 °C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 °C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.

Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models - Schauberger, Bernhard; Archontoulis, Sotirios; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Müller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Rolinski, Susanne; et al. (Nature Communications, 2017)

Scaling potential evapotranspiration with greenhouse warming - Scheff, Jacob; Frierson, Dargan M. W. (Journal of Climate, 2013)
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate—of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and “business as usual” future Penman–Monteith PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 13 modern global climate models. The percentage change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models.These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET percentage change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor deficit and increasing Clausius–Clapeyron slope). This direct-warming term accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5%–6% °C−1 (related to the Clausius–Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the intermodel spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET percentage change fields.

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people - Scheffers, Brett R.; De Meester, Luc; Bridge, Tom C. L.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Pandolfi, John M.; Corlett, Richard T.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Kovacs, Kit M.; Dudgeon, David; Pacifici, Michela; Rondinini, Carlo; et al. (Science, 2016)
Anthropogenic climate change is now in full swing, our global average temperature already having increased by 1°C from preindustrial levels. Many studies have documented individual impacts of the changing climate that are particular to species or regions, but individual impacts are accumulating and being amplified more broadly. Scheffers et al. review the set of impacts that have been observed across genes, species, and ecosystems to reveal a world already undergoing substantial change. Understanding the causes, consequences, and potential mitigation of these changes will be essential as we move forward into a warming world.

Next‐generation dynamic global vegetation models: Learning from community ecology - Scheiter, Simon; Langan, Liam; Higgins, Steven I (New Phytologist, 2013)

6.6-hour inhalation of ozone concentrations from 60 to 87 parts per billion in healthy humans - Schelegle, Edward S.; Morales, Christopher A.; Walby, William F.; Marion, Susan; Allen, Roblee P. (American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, 2009)
Rationale: Identification of the minimal ozone (O3) concentration and/or dose that induces measurable lung function decrements in humans is considered in the risk assessment leading to establishing an appropriate National Ambient Air Quality Standard for O3 that protects public health.Objectives: To identify and/or predict the minimal mean O3 concentration that produces a decrement in FEV1 and symptoms in healthy individuals completing 6.6-hour exposure protocols.Methods: Pulmonary function and subjective symptoms were measured in 31 healthy adults (18–25 yr, male and female, nonsmokers) who completed five 6.6-hour chamber exposures: filtered air and four variable hourly patterns with mean O3 concentrations of 60, 70, 80, and 87 parts per billion (ppb).Measurements and Main Results: Compared with filtered air, statistically significant decrements in FEV1 and increases in total subjective symptoms scores (P < 0.05) were measured after exposure to mean concentrations of 70, 80, and 87 ppb O3. The mean percent change in FEV1 (±standard error) at the end of each protocol was 0.80 ± 0.90, −2.72 ± 1.48, −5.34 ± 1.42, −7.02 ± 1.60, and −11.42 ± 2.20% for exposure to filtered air and 60, 70, 80, and 87 ppb O3, respectively.Conclusions: Inhalation of 70 ppb O3 for 6.6 hours, a concentration below the current 8-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 75 ppb, is sufficient to induce statistically significant decrements in FEV1 in healthy young adults.
Keywords: ozone,clinical study,exposure assessment,human

Grounding line retreat of Pope, Smith, and Kohler Glaciers, West Antarctica, measured with Sentinel-1a radar interferometry data - Scheuchl, B.; Mouginot, J.; Rignot, E.; Morlighem, M.; Khazendar, A. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
We employ Sentinel-1a C band satellite radar interferometry data in Terrain Observation with Progressive Scans mode to map the grounding line and ice velocity of Pope, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, in West Antarctica, for the years 2014–2016 and compare the results with those obtained using Earth Remote Sensing Satellites (ERS-1/2) in 1992, 1996, and 2011. We observe an ongoing, rapid grounding line retreat of Smith at 2 km/yr (40 km since 1996), an 11 km retreat of Pope (0.5 km/yr), and a 2 km readvance of Kohler since 2011. The variability in glacier retreat is consistent with the distribution of basal slopes, i.e., fast along retrograde beds and slow along prograde beds. We find that several pinning points holding Dotson and Crosson ice shelves disappeared since 1996 due to ice shelf thinning, which signal the ongoing weakening of these ice shelves. Overall, the results indicate that ice shelf and glacier retreat in this sector remain unabated.
Keywords: 0720 Glaciers 0728 Ice shelves 0758 Remote sensing 0762 Mass balance 0774 Dynamics Grounding Line Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar

Harvey throws a wrench into US energy engine - Scheyder, Ernest; Seba, Erwin (Reuters, 2017)

Trends and disparities in stroke mortality by region for American Indians and Alaska Natives - Schieb, Linda J.; Ayala, Carma; Valderrama, Amy L.; Veazie, Mark A. (American Journal of Public Health, 2014)
Objectives. We evaluated trends and disparities in stroke death rates for American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) and White people by Indian Health Service region.Methods. We identified stroke deaths among AI/AN persons and Whites (adults aged 35 years or older) using National Vital Statistics System data for 1990 to 2009. We used linkages with Indian Health Service patient registration data to adjust for misclassification of race for AI/AN persons. Analyses excluded Hispanics and focused on Contract Health Service Delivery Area (CHSDA) counties.Results. Stroke death rates among AI/AN individuals were higher than among Whites for both men and women in CHSDA counties and were highest in the youngest age groups. Rates and AI/AN:White rate ratios varied by region, with the highest in Alaska and the lowest in the Southwest. Stroke death rates among AI/AN persons decreased in all regions beginning in 2001.Conclusions. Although stroke death rates among AI/AN populations have decreased over time, rates are still higher for AI/AN persons than for Whites. Interventions that address reducing stroke risk factors, increasing awareness of stroke symptoms, and increasing access to specialty care for stroke may be more successful at reducing disparities in stroke death rates.

Contemporary climate change and terrestrial invertebrates: Evolutionary versus plastic changes - Schilthuizen, Menno; Kellermann, Vanessa (Evolutionary Applications, 2014)
Keywords: adaptation Drosophila insects land snails phenotypic plasticity temperature stress

A time series analysis of associations between daily temperature and crime events in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania - Schinasi, Leah H.; Hamra, Ghassan B. (Journal of Urban Health, 2017)
Urban crime may be an important but overlooked public health impact of rising ambient temperatures. We conducted a time series analysis of associations between temperature and crimes in Philadelphia, PA, for years 2006–2015. We obtained daily crime data from the Philadelphia Police Department, and hourly temperature and dew point data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. We calculated the mean daily heat index and daily deviations from each year’s seasonal mean heat index value. We used generalized additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, adjusted for day of the week, public holiday, and long-term trends and seasonality, to estimate relative rates (RR) and 95% confidence intervals. We found that the strongest associations were with violent crime and disorderly conduct. For example, relative to the median of the distribution of mean daily heat index values, the rate of violent crimes was 9% (95% CI 6–12%) higher when the mean daily heat index was at the 99th percentile of the distribution. There was a positive, linear relationship between deviations of the daily mean heat index from the seasonal mean and rates of violent crime and disorderly conduct, especially in cold months. Overall, these analyses suggest that disorderly conduct and violent crimes are highest when temperatures are comfortable, especially during cold months. This work provides important information regarding the temporal patterns of crime activity.

Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change - Schlenker, W.; Roberts, M.J. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009)

Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors, ethnicity appears to play a prominent and almost ubiquitous role in many of them. This overall state of affairs is likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and in particular climate-related natural disasters. Ethnic divides might serve as predetermined conflict lines in case of rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. Here, we hypothesize that climate-related disaster occurrence enhances armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, we test this hypothesis based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980–2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities. Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world’s most conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides.

Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere - Schloss, C. A.; Nunez, T. A.; Lawler, J. J. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2012)
As they have in response to past climatic changes, many species will shift their distributions in response to modern climate change. However, due to the unprecedented rapidity of projected climatic changes, some species may not be able to move their ranges fast enough to track shifts in suitable climates and associated habitats. Here, we investigate the ability of 493 mammals to keep pace with projected climatic changes in the Western Hemisphere. We modeled the velocities at which species will likely need to move to keep pace with projected changes in suitable climates. We compared these velocities with the velocities at which species are able to move as a function of dispersal distances and dispersal frequencies. Across the Western Hemisphere, on average, 9.2% of mammals at a given location will likely be unable to keep pace with climate change. In some places, up to 39% of mammals may be unable to track shifts in suitable climates. Eighty-seven percent of mammalian species are expected to experience reductions in range size and 20% of these range reductions will likely be due to limited dispersal abilities as opposed to reductions in the area of suitable climate. Because climate change will likely outpace the response capacity of many mammals, mammalian vulnerability to climate change may be more extensive than previously anticipated.
Keywords: Algorithms Animals Climate Climate Change Ecosystem Geography Humans Mammals/classification/ growth & development Models, Biological North America Population Dynamics South America Species Specificity

Long-term dynamics of adaptive evolution in a globally important phytoplankton species to ocean acidification - Schlüter, Lothar; Lohbeck, Kai T.; Gröger, Joachim P.; Riebesell, Ulf; Reusch, Thorsten B. H. (Science Advances, 2016)
Marine phytoplankton may adapt to ocean change, such as acidification or warming, because of their large population sizes and short generation times. Long-term adaptation to novel environments is a dynamic process, and phenotypic change can take place thousands of generations after exposure to novel conditions. We conducted a long-term evolution experiment (4 years = 2100 generations), starting with a single clone of the abundant and widespread coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi exposed to three different CO2 levels simulating ocean acidification (OA). Growth rates as a proxy for Darwinian fitness increased only moderately under both levels of OA [+3.4% and +4.8%, respectively, at 1100 and 2200 μatm partial pressure of CO2 (Pco2)] relative to control treatments (ambient CO2, 400 μatm). Long-term adaptation to OA was complex, and initial phenotypic responses of ecologically important traits were later reverted. The biogeochemically important trait of calcification, in particular, that had initially been restored within the first year of evolution was later reduced to levels lower than the performance of nonadapted populations under OA. Calcification was not constitutively lost but returned to control treatment levels when high CO2–adapted isolates were transferred back to present-day control CO2 conditions. Selection under elevated CO2 exacerbated a general decrease of cell sizes under long-term laboratory evolution. Our results show that phytoplankton may evolve complex phenotypic plasticity that can affect biogeochemically important traits, such as calcification. Adaptive evolution may play out over longer time scales (>1 year) in an unforeseen way under future ocean conditions that cannot be predicted from initial adaptation responses.

The Impact of Global Warming on Texas - Schmandt, Jurgen; North, Gerald R.; Clarkson, Judith (University of Texas Press, 2011)

Risk characterization of hospitalizations for mental illness and/or behavioral disorders with concurrent heat-related illness - Schmeltz, Michael T.; Gamble, Janet L. (PLOS ONE, 2017)
Background Many studies have found significant associations between high ambient temperatures and increases in heat-related morbidity and mortality. Several studies have demonstrated that increases in heat-related hospitalizations are elevated among individuals with diagnosed mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders (MBD). However, there are a limited number of studies regarding risk factors associated with specific mental illnesses that contribute, at least in part, to heat-related illnesses (HRI) in the United States. Objective To identify and characterize individual and environmental risk factors associated with MBD hospitalizations with a concurrent HRI diagnosis. Methods This study uses hospitalization data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2001–2010). Descriptive analyses of primary and secondary diagnoses of MBDs with an HRI were examined. Risk ratios (RR) were calculated from multivariable models to identify risk factors for hospitalizations among patients with mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders and HRI. Results Nondependent alcohol/drug abuse, dementia, and schizophrenia were among the disorders that were associated with increased frequency of HRI hospitalizations among MBD patients. Increased risk of MBD hospitalizations with HRI was observed for Males (RR, 3.06), African Americans (RR, 1.16), Native Americans (RR, 1.70), uninsured (RR, 1.92), and those 40 years and older, compared to MBD hospitalizations alone. Conclusions Previous studies outside the U.S. have found that dementia and schizophrenia are significant risk factors for HRI hospitalizations. Our results suggest that hospitalizations among substance abusers may also be an important risk factor associated with heat morbidity. Improved understanding of these relative risks could help inform future public health strategies.

Pollen overload: Seasonal allergies in a changing climate - Schmidt, Charles W. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2016)
Keywords: Allergens/immunology Asthma/epidemiology Carbon Dioxide *Climate Change Plant Physiological Phenomena Pollen/*immunology Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology/immunology Seasons Spores, Fungal/immunology Temperature United States/epidemiology

Decline in global oceanic oxygen content during the past five decades - Schmidtko, Sunke; Stramma, Lothar; Visbeck, Martin (Nature, 2017)

Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America - Schnell, Jordan L.; Prather, Michael J. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Heat waves and air pollution episodes pose a serious threat to human health and may worsen under future climate change. In this paper, we use 15 years (1999–2013) of commensurately gridded (1° x 1°) surface observations of extended summer (April–September) surface ozone (O3), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and maximum temperature (TX) over the eastern United States and Canada to construct a climatology of the coincidence, overlap, and lag in space and time of their extremes. Extremes of each quantity are defined climatologically at each grid cell as the 50 d with the highest values in three 5-y windows (∼95th percentile). Any two extremes occur on the same day in the same grid cell more than 50% of the time in the northeastern United States, but on a domain average, co-occurrence is approximately 30%. Although not exactly co-occurring, many of these extremes show connectedness with consistent offsets in space and in time, which often defy traditional mechanistic explanations. All three extremes occur primarily in large-scale, multiday, spatially connected episodes with scales of >1,000 km and clearly coincide with large-scale meteorological features. The largest, longest-lived episodes have the highest incidence of co-occurrence and contain extreme values well above their local 95th percentile threshold, by +7 ppb for O3, +6 µg m−3 for PM2.5, and +1.7 °C for TX. Our results demonstrate the need to evaluate these extremes as synergistic costressors to accurately quantify their impacts on human health.

Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes - Schoennagel, Tania; Balch, Jennifer K.; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Dennison, Philip E.; Harvey, Brian J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Morgan, Penelope; Moritz, Max A.; Rasker, Ray; Turner, Monica G.; Whitlock, Cathy (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland–urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are (i) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; (ii) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; (iii) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and (iv) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland–urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire.

Implementation of National Fire Plan treatments near the wildland–urban interface in the western United States - Schoennagel, Tania; Nelson, Cara R.; Theobald, David M.; Carnwath, Gunnar C.; Chapman, Teresa B. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009)
Because of increasing concern about the effects of catastrophic wildland fires throughout the western United States, federal land managers have been engaged in efforts to restore historical fire behavior and mitigate wildfire risk. During the last 5 years (2004–2008), 44,000 fuels treatments were implemented across the western United States under the National Fire Plan (NFP). We assessed the extent to which these treatments were conducted in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI), where they would have the greatest potential to reduce fire risk in neighboring homes and communities. Although federal policies stipulate that significant resources should be invested in the WUI, we found that only 3% of the area treated was within the WUI, and another 8% was in an additional 2.5-km buffer around the WUI, totaling 11%. Only 17% of this buffered WUI is under federal ownership, which significantly limits the ability of federal agencies to implement fire-risk reduction treatments near communities. Although treatments far from the WUI may have some fire mitigation benefits, our findings suggest that greater priority must be given to locating treatments in and near the WUI, rather than in more remote settings, to satisfy NFP goals of reducing fire risk to communities. However, this may require shifting management and policy emphasis from public to private lands.

Mortality of sea lions along the central California coast linked to a toxic diatom bloom - Scholin, Christopher A.; Gulland, Frances; Doucette, Gregory J.; Benson, Scott; Busman, Mark; Chavez, Francisco P.; Cordaro, Joe; DeLong, Robert; De Vogelaere, Andrew; Harvey, James; Haulena, Martin; Lefebvre, Kathi; et al. (Nature, 2000)

Pursuing equity and justice in a changing climate: Assessing equity in local climate and sustainability plans in U.S. cities - Schrock, Greg; Bassett, Ellen M.; Green, Jamaal (Journal of Planning Education and Research, 2015)
Despite interest in the importance of social equity to sustainability, there is concern that equity is often left behind in practice relative to environmental and economic imperatives. We analyze recent climate and sustainability action plans from a sample of twenty-eight medium and large U.S. cities, finding that few made social equity a prominent goal of their plans, although there is a discernible trend in this direction. We present case studies of three cities that incorporated social equity goals, concluding that sustainability planning efforts provide strategic opportunities to pursue equity goals, especially where capacity exists among community-based actors to intervene and participate.
Keywords: sustainability,equity planning,climate action planning,participatory planning

Global meteorological drought: A synthesis of current understanding with a focus on SST drivers of precipitation deficits - Schubert, Siegfried D.; Stewart, Ronald E.; Wang, Hailan; Barlow, Mathew; Berbery, Ernesto H.; Cai, Wenju; Hoerling, Martin P.; Kanikicharla, Krishna K.; Koster, Randal D.; Lyon, Bradfield; Mariotti, Annarita; Mechoso, Carlos R.; et al. (Journal of Climate, 2016)
Drought affects virtually every region of the world, and potential shifts in its character in a changing climate are a major concern. This article presents a synthesis of current understanding of meteorological drought, with a focus on the large-scale controls on precipitation afforded by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land surface feedbacks, and radiative forcings. The synthesis is primarily based on regionally focused articles submitted to the Global Drought Information System (GDIS) collection together with new results from a suite of atmospheric general circulation model experiments intended to integrate those studies into a coherent view of drought worldwide. On interannual time scales, the preeminence of ENSO as a driver of meteorological drought throughout much of the Americas, eastern Asia, Australia, and the Maritime Continent is now well established, whereas in other regions (e.g., Europe, Africa, and India), the response to ENSO is more ephemeral or nonexistent. Northern Eurasia, central Europe, and central and eastern Canada stand out as regions with few SST-forced impacts on precipitation on interannual time scales. Decadal changes in SST appear to be a major factor in the occurrence of long-term drought, as highlighted by apparent impacts on precipitation of the late 1990s “climate shifts” in the Pacific and Atlantic SST. Key remaining research challenges include (i) better quantification of unforced and forced atmospheric variability as well as land–atmosphere feedbacks, (ii) better understanding of the physical basis for the leading modes of climate variability and their predictability, and (iii) quantification of the relative contributions of internal decadal SST variability and forced climate change to long-term drought.
Keywords: Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena,Drought,Precipitation,Sea surface temperature,Variability,Climate variability,Decadal variability,Interannual variability

Will an ivory ban criminalize indigenous artists’ work in Alaska? - Schuessler, Ryan (The Guardian, 2016)

Reliability and Risk: The Challenge of Managing Interconnected Infrastructures - Schulman, Paul; Roe, Emery (Stanford University Press, 2016)
High-reliability management of critical infrastructures-the safe and continued provision of electricity, natural gas, telecommunications, transportation, and water-is a social imperative. Loss of service in interconnected critical infrastructure systems (ICISs) after hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and tsunamis and their delayed large-scale recovery have turned these events into catastrophes. Reliability and Risk reveals a neglected management dimension and provides a new framework for understanding interconnected infrastructures, their potential for cascading failure, and how to improve their reliability and reduce risk of system failure. The book answers two questions: How are modern interconnected infrastructures managed and regulated for reliability? How can policy makers, analysts, managers, and citizenry better promote reliability in interconnected systems whose failures can scarcely be imagined? The current consensus is that the answers lie in better design, technology, and regulation, but the book argues that these have inevitable shortfalls and that it is dangerous to stop there. The framework developed in Reliability and Risk draws from first-of-its-kind research at the infrastructure crossroads of California, the California Delta, in the San Francisco Bay region. The book demonstrates that infrastructure reliability in an interconnected world must be managed by system professionals in real time.
Keywords: High-reliability management interconnected critical infrastructure systems risk assessment risk management infrastructure design technology regulation system failure large-scale recovery regulated reliability ER

Prairie strips improve biodiversity and the delivery of multiple ecosystem services from corn–soybean croplands - Schulte, Lisa A.; Niemi, Jarad; Helmers, Matthew J.; Liebman, Matt; Arbuckle, J. Gordon; James, David E.; Kolka, Randall K.; O’Neal, Matthew E.; Tomer, Mark D.; Tyndall, John C.; Asbjornsen, Heidi; Drobney, Pauline; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Prairie strips are a new conservation technology designed to alleviate biodiversity loss and environmental damage associated with row-crop agriculture. Results from a multiyear, catchment-scale experiment comparing corn and soybean fields with and without prairie vegetation indicated prairie strips raised pollinator and bird abundance, decreased water runoff, and increased soil and nutrient retention. These benefits accrued at levels disproportionately greater than the land area occupied by prairie strips. Social surveys revealed demand among both farm and nonfarm populations for the outcomes prairie strips produced. We estimated prairie strips could be used to improve biodiversity and ecosystem services across 3.9 million ha of cropland in Iowa and a large portion of the 69 million ha under similar management in the United States.Loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystem services from agricultural lands remain important challenges in the United States despite decades of spending on natural resource management. To date, conservation investment has emphasized engineering practices or vegetative strategies centered on monocultural plantings of nonnative plants, largely excluding native species from cropland. In a catchment-scale experiment, we quantified the multiple effects of integrating strips of native prairie species amid corn and soybean crops, with prairie strips arranged to arrest run-off on slopes. Replacing 10% of cropland with prairie strips increased biodiversity and ecosystem services with minimal impacts on crop production. Compared with catchments containing only crops, integrating prairie strips into cropland led to greater catchment-level insect taxa richness (2.6-fold), pollinator abundance (3.5-fold), native bird species richness (2.1-fold), and abundance of bird species of greatest conservation need (2.1-fold). Use of prairie strips also reduced total water runoff from catchments by 37%, resulting in retention of 20 times more soil and 4.3 times more phosphorus. Corn and soybean yields for catchments with prairie strips decreased only by the amount of the area taken out of crop production. Social survey results indicated demand among both farming and nonfarming populations for the environmental outcomes produced by prairie strips. If federal and state policies were aligned to promote prairie strips, the practice would be applicable to 3.9 million ha of cropland in Iowa alone.

Advancing the framework for considering the effects of climate change on worker safety and health - Schulte, P. A.; Bhattacharya, A.; Butler, C. R.; Chun, H. K.; Jacklitsch, B.; Jacobs, T.; Kiefer, M.; Lincoln, J.; Pendergrass, S.; Shire, J.; Watson, J.; Wagner, G. R. (Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene, 2016)

Adapting bridge infrastructure to climate change: Institutionalizing resilience in intergovernmental transportation planning processes in the Northeastern USA - Schulz, Anna; Zia, Asim; Koliba, Christopher (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2017)
Multi-level governance networks provide both opportunities and challenges to mainstream climate change adaptation due to their routine decision-making and coordination processes. This paper explores institutionalizing resilience and adaptation to climate change in the intergovernmental transportation planning processes that address bridge infrastructure in the Northeastern United States (USA), specifically in Vermont and Maine. The research presented here relies on nine interviews with policy-makers and planners, a survey of transportation project prioritization criteria, development of a longitudinal bridge funding database, and its integration with publicly available geospatial data. It presents a novel spatial analysis methodology, a modified version of which could be adopted by transportation agencies for prioritizing scarce adaptation funds. Although transportation agencies are undertaking a variety of mitigation activities to address business-as-usual needs, climate change adaptation and resilience efforts remain underprioritized. Adaptation is a global concern, but impacts vary dramatically between regions and require localized solutions. Bridges and culverts, which are especially vulnerable to climate-induced flooding impacts, have complex maintenance and design processes and are subject to convoluted adaptation planning procedures. Critical gaps in resources and knowledge are barriers to improved adaptation planning. Restructuring the transportation project prioritization procedures used by planning organizations to explicitly include adaptation may provide a novel strategy to institutionalize resilience in transportation. These procedures must be considered in the context of the intergovernmental networks that exist to support transportation infrastructure. Although these networks will likely vary across countries, the approaches introduced here to study and address transportation infrastructure adaptation may be applied to many settings.

Characteristics of U.S. extreme rain events during 1999–2003 - Schumacher, Russ S.; Johnson, Richard H. (Weather and Forecasting, 2006)
This study examines the characteristics of a large number of extreme rain events over the eastern two-thirds of the United States. Over a 5-yr period, 184 events are identified where the 24-h precipitation total at one or more stations exceeds the 50-yr recurrence amount for that location. Over the entire region of study, these events are most common in July. In the northern United States, extreme rain events are confined almost exclusively to the warm season; in the southern part of the country, these events are distributed more evenly throughout the year. National composite radar reflectivity data are used to classify each event as a mesoscale convective system (MCS), a synoptic system, or a tropical system, and then to classify the MCS and synoptic events into subclassifications based on their organizational structures. This analysis shows that 66% of all the events and 74% of the warm-season events are associated with MCSs; nearly all of the cool-season events are caused by storms with strong synoptic forcing. Similarly, nearly all of the extreme rain events in the northern part of the country are caused by MCSs; synoptic and tropical systems play a larger role in the South and East. MCS-related events are found to most commonly begin at around 1800 local standard time (LST), produce their peak rainfall between 2100 and 2300 LST, and dissipate or move out of the affected area by 0300 LST.

Coastal Adaptation Strategies: Case Studies - Schupp, Courtney A.; Beavers, Rebecca L.; Caffrey, Maria A. (NPS 999/129700, 2015)

Mercury export from the Yukon River Basin and potential response to a changing climate - Schuster, Paul F.; Striegl, Robert G.; Aiken, George R.; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Dewild, John F.; Butler, Kenna; Kamark, Ben; Dornblaser, Mark (Environmental Science & Technology, 2011)

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback - Schuur, E. A. G.; McGuire, A. D.; Schadel, C.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J. W.; Hayes, D. J.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C. D.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; Natali, S. M.; Olefeldt, D.; et al. (Nature, 2015)

The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra - Schuur, Edward A. G.; Vogel, Jason G.; Crummer, Kathryn G.; Lee, Hanna; Sickman, James O.; Osterkamp, T. E. (Nature, 2009)

Ch. 5: Transportation - Schwartz, Henry G.; Meyer, Michael; Burbank, Cynthia J.; Kuby, Michael; Oster, Clinton; Posey, John; Russo, Edmond J.; Rypinski, Arthur (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Projections of temperature-attributable premature deaths in 209 U.S. cities using a cluster-based Poisson approach - Schwartz, J.D.; M. Lee; P.L. Kinney; S. Yang; D. Mills; M. Sarofim; R. Jones; R. Streeter; A. St. Juliana; Peers, J.; Horton, R.M. (Environmental Health, 2015)

Electricity End Uses, Energy Efficiency, and Distributed Energy Resources Baseline - Schwartz, Lisa; Wei, Max; Morrow, William; Deason, Jeff; Schiller, Steven R.; Leventis, Greg; Smith, Sarah; Leow, Woei Ling; Levin, Todd; Plotkin, Steven; Zhou, Yan; Teng, Joseph (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2017)

Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere - Schwartz, M. D.; Ahas, R.; Aasa, A. (Global Change Biology, 2006)
Keywords: climate change; freeze dates; global warming; growing season; Northern; Hemisphere; phenology; spring; surface air-temperature; growing-season length; frost-free season; united-states; climatic extremes; deciduous forest; central-europe; green-wave; phenology; trends

Managed relocation: Integrating the scientific, regulatory, and ethical challenges - Schwartz, Mark W.; Hellmann, Jessica J.; McLachlan, Jason M.; Sax, Dov F.; Borevitz, Justin O.; Brennan, Jean; Camacho, Alejandro E.; Ceballos, Gerardo; Clark, Jamie R.; Doremus, Holly; Early, Regan; Etterson, Julie R.; et al. (BioScience, 2012)

North American west coast summer low cloudiness: Broadscale variability associated with sea surface temperature - Schwartz, Rachel E.; Gershunov, Alexander; Iacobellis, Sam F.; Cayan, Daniel R. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Six decades of observations at 20 coastal airports, from Alaska to southern California, reveal coherent interannual to interdecadal variation of coastal low cloudiness (CLC) from summer to summer over this broad region. The leading mode of CLC variability represents coherent variation, accounting for nearly 40% of the total CLC variance spanning 1950–2012. This leading mode and the majority of individual airports exhibit decreased low cloudiness from the earlier to the later part of the record. Exploring climatic controls on CLC, we identify North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, largely in the form of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as well correlated with, and evidently helping to organize, the coherent patterns of summer coastal cloud variability. Links from the PDO to summer CLC appear a few months in advance of the summer. These associations hold up consistently in interannual and interdecadal frequencies.

Sweetening the Waters: The Feasibility and Efficacy of Measures to Protect Washington’s Marine Resources from Ocean Acidification - Scigliano, Eric (National Fisheries Conservation Center, 2012)

Southern Climate Impacts and Planning Program Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program 4th Annual Report: May 1, 2011–April 30, 2012: Norman, OK, and Baton Rouge, LA - SCIPP (Southern Climate Impacts and Planning Program (SCIPP), Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma and Louisiana State University, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2012)

Enhancing water governance for climate resilience: Arizona, USA—Sonora, Mexico comparative assessment of the role of reservoirs in adaptive management for water security - Scott, Christopher A.; Lutz-Ley, America N. (Increasing Resilience to Climate Variability and Change: The Roles of Infrastructure and Governance in the Context of Adaptation, 2016)
Climate variability and change exert disproportionate impacts on the water sector because water is a crosscutting resource for food production, energy generation, economic development, poverty alleviation, and ecosystem processes. Flexible surface water and groundwater storage together with adaptive water governance are increasingly recognized and deployed to strengthen climate resilience, specifically by buffering drought and flood extremes, bridging interannual variability, and providing for multiple uses of water, including environmental flows. Adaptation can be further enhanced by the following: (1) accounting for hydroclimatic and water-demand uncertainties; (2) strengthening institutional learning in relation to reservoirs (reoperations as well as mechanisms to address growing civil-society critiques of “hard-path dependence”); (3) increasing flexibility of policies for infrastructure (including readaptation to past cycles of infrastructure development); and (4) building on science-policy dialogues that link infrastructure and governance. An array of complementary adaptation tools will buttress climate resilience. Some emerging techniques include underground storage, distributed basin-wide enhancement of water retention, efficient water use (with limits on the expansion of new demands on saved water), and wastewater reclamation and reuse (with their own emerging storage and recovery techniques). Each of these techniques is directly linked to reservoirs in practical and operational terms. Conjunctive surface-water and groundwater storage must be further developed through infrastructure, institutional, and policy approaches including groundwater banking, trading and credit schemes, water swaps (substitutions and exchanges), and a robust approach to targeted water storage for climate resilience.

Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation– tourism sector - Scott, Daniel; Dawson, Jackie; Jones, Brenda (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2008)
Winter recreation is an important part of the cultural identity of the Northeast United States and is a multibillion dollar contributor to the regional economy. This study examined the vulnerability of the two largest winter recreation industries, snowmobiling and alpine skiing, to four climate change scenarios for the twenty-first century. Under all scenarios, natural snow became an increasingly scarce resource. The diminished natural snow pack had a very negative impact on the snowmobile industry. As early as 2010–2039, 4 to 6 of the 15 snowmobile study areas were projected to lose more than half of the current season. Reliable snowmobile seasons (>50 days) were virtually eliminated in the region under the A1Fi scenarios by 2070–2099. The large investment in snowmaking substantially reduced the vulnerability of the ski industry and climate change posed a risk to only 4 of the 14 ski areas in 2010–2039, where average ski seasons declined below 100 days and the probability of being open for the entire Christmas–New Year’s holiday declined below 75%. Conversely, by 2070–2099 only four ski study areas had not reached these same economic risk criteria. In order to minimize ski season losses, snowmaking requirements are projected to increase substantially, raising important uncertainties about water availability and cost. Climate change represents a notable threat to the winter recreation sector in the Northeast, and the potential economic ramifications for businesses and communities heavily invested in winter tourism and related real estate is sizeable.

Tourism and Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation - Scott, Daniel; Hall, C. Michael; Stefan, Gossling (Routledge, 2012)

Climate change adaptation in the ski industry - Scott, Daniel; McBoyle, Geoff (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2006)
Regardless of the success of climate change mitigation efforts, the international community has concluded that societies around the world will need to adapt to some magnitude of climate change in the 21st century. While some economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources and construction) have been actively engaged in climate change adaptation research for years, adaptation has received scant consideration within the tourism-recreation industry. This is particularly the case for adaptation by tourism operators (supply-side). One exception where progress on supply-side climate adaptation has been made is the ski industry. This paper provides a brief overview of the literature on the implications of climate change for the international ski industry and how adaptation by ski area operators has been treated within these studies. This is followed by an inventory of climate adaptation practices currently used by ski industry stakeholders, including the historical development of certain key adaptations and constraints to wider use. The characteristics of ski areas with higher adaptive capacity are identified. Considering the highly competitive nature of the ski industry and the generally low climate change risk appraisal within the industry, climate change adaptation is anticipated to remain individualistic and reactive for some time. With only a few exceptions, the existing climate change literature on winter tourism has not considered the wide range of adaptation options identified in this paper and has likely overestimated potential damages. An important task for future studies is to develop methodologies to incorporate adaptation so that a more accurate understanding of the vulnerability of the international ski industry can be ascertained.

Climate change and the skiing industry in southern Ontario (Canada): Exploring the importance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation - Scott, Daniel; McBoyle, Geoff; Mills, Brian (Climate Research, 2003)
The winter tourism industry has been repeatedly identified as potentially vulnerable to global climate change. Climate change impact assessments of ski areas in Australia, Europe and North America all project negative consequences for the industry. An important limitation of earlier studies has been the incomplete consideration of snowmaking as a climate adaptation strategy. Recognising that snowmaking is an integral component of the ski industry, this study examined how current and improved snowmaking capacity affects the vulnerability of the ski industry in southern Ontario (Canada) to climate variability and change. A 17 yr record of daily snow conditions and operations from a primary ski area in the region was used to calibrate a ski season simulation model that included a snowmaking module with climatic thresholds and operational decision rules based on interviews with ski area managers. Climate change scenarios (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) were developed by downscaling climate variables from 4 general circulation models (using both IS92a and SRES emission scenarios) with the LARS weather generator (parameterized to local climate stations) for input into a daily snow depth simulation model. In contrast to earlier studies, the results indicate that ski areas in the region could remain operational in a warmer climate, particularly within existing business planning and investment time horizons (into the 2020s). The economic impact of additional snowmaking requirements remains an important uncertainty. Under climate change scenarios and current snowmaking technology, the average ski season at the case study ski area was projected to reduce by 0-16% in the 2020s, 7-32% in the 2050s and 11-50% in the 2080s. Concurrent with the projected ski season losses, the estimated amount of snowmaking required increased by 36-144% in the scenarios for the 2020s. Required snowmaking amounts increased by 48-187% in the scenarios for the 2020s. The ability of individual ski areas to absorb additional snowmaking costs and remain economically viable in addition to the relative impact of climate change on other nearby ski regions (Québec, Michigan and Vermont) remain important avenues of further research. The findings reveal the importance of examining a wide range of climate change scenarios and the necessity of including snowmaking and other adaptation strategies in future climate change vulnerability assessments of the ski industry and winter tourism in other regions of the world.

Gov. Scott issues updates on Hurricane Irma preparedness - Scott, Rick (2017)

Impacts of the Great Lakes on regional climate conditions - Scott, Robert W.; Huff, Floyd A. (Journal of Great Lakes Research, 1996)
Keywords: Great Lakes precipitation temperature clouds vapor pressure climate impacts

Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss - Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao (Environmental Research Letters, 2015)
The decline in Arctic sea ice cover has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts locally. An emerging and highly uncertain area of scientific research, however, is whether such Arctic change has a tangible effect on weather and climate at lower latitudes. Of particular societal relevance is the open question: will continued Arctic sea ice loss make mid-latitude weather more extreme? Here we analyse idealized atmospheric general circulation model simulations, using two independent models, both forced by projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. We identify robust projected changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes arising solely due to Arctic sea ice loss. The likelihood and duration of cold extremes are projected to decrease over high latitudes and over central and eastern North America, but to increase over central Asia. Hot extremes are projected to increase in frequency and duration over high latitudes. The likelihood and severity of wet extremes are projected to increase over high latitudes, the Mediterranean and central Asia; and their intensity is projected to increase over high latitudes and central and eastern Asia. The number of dry days over mid-latitude Eurasia and dry spell duration over high latitudes are both projected to decrease. There is closer model agreement for projected changes in temperature extremes than for precipitation extremes. Overall, we find that extreme weather over central and eastern North America is more sensitive to Arctic sea ice loss than over other mid-latitude regions. Our results are useful for constraining the role of Arctic sea ice loss in shifting the odds of extreme weather, but must not be viewed as deterministic projections, as they do not account for drivers other than Arctic sea ice loss.

The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification - Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian (Nature, 2010)

Atmosphere and ocean origins of North American droughts - Seager, Richard; Hoerling, Martin (Journal of Climate, 2014)
The atmospheric and oceanic causes of North American droughts are examined using observations and ensemble climate simulations. The models indicate that oceanic forcing of annual mean precipitation variability accounts for up to 40% of total variance in northeastern Mexico, the southern Great Plains, and the Gulf Coast states but less than 10% in central and eastern Canada. Observations and models indicate robust tropical Pacific and tropical North Atlantic forcing of annual mean precipitation and soil moisture with the most heavily influenced areas being in southwestern North America and the southern Great Plains. In these regions, individual wet and dry years, droughts, and decadal variations are well reproduced in atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Oceanic forcing was important in causing multiyear droughts in the 1950s and at the turn of the twenty-first century, although a similar ocean configuration in the 1970s was not associated with drought owing to an overwhelming influence of internal atmospheric variability. Up to half of the soil moisture deficits during severe droughts in the southeast United States in 2000, Texas in 2011, and the central Great Plains in 2012 were related to SST forcing, although SST forcing was an insignificant factor for northern Great Plains drought in 1988. During the early twenty-first century, natural decadal swings in tropical Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs have contributed to a dry regime for the United States. Long-term changes caused by increasing trace gas concentrations are now contributing to a modest signal of soil moisture depletion, mainly over the U.S. Southwest, thereby prolonging the duration and severity of naturally occurring droughts.
Keywords: North America,Atmosphere-ocean interaction,Climate variability,Hydrometeorology

Causes of the 2011–14 California drought - Seager, Richard; Hoerling, Martin; Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Lyon, Bradfield; Kumar, Arun; Nakamura, Jennifer; Henderson, Naomi (Journal of Climate, 2015)
The causes of the California drought during November–April winters of 2011/12–2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Niño event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Niña event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west–cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.
Keywords: North America,Drought,Interannual variability

Do biofuel policies seek to cut emissions by cutting food? - Searchinger, Tim; Edwards, R; Mulligan, D; Heimlich, R; Plevin, R (Science, 2015)

Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change - Searchinger, Timothy; Heimlich, Ralph; Houghton, R. A.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani; Fabiosa, Jacinto; Tokgoz, Simla; Hayes, Dermot; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Science, 2008)

Climate Change Vulnerability: Assessment and Adaptation Plan - Seattle City Light (Seattle City Light, 2015)

Filing Form 20-F: Marine Harvest ASA - SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 2014)

Filing Form 10-K: Coca Cola Bottling Co. Consolidated - SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 2014)

Filing Form 10-K: The Kraft Heinz Company - SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 2016)

Filing Form 10-K: PepsiCo, Inc. - SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 2016)

Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy - SECAS (Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy (SECAS))

Second Nature Reporting Platform [web tool] - Second Nature (Second Nature Inc., 2018)

No saturation in the accumulation of alien species worldwide - Seebens, Hanno; Blackburn, Tim M.; Dyer, Ellie E.; Genovesi, Piero; Hulme, Philip E.; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Pagad, Shyama; Pyšek, Petr; Winter, Marten; Arianoutsou, Margarita; Bacher, Sven; Blasius, Bernd; et al. (Nature Communications, 2017)

The effect of global warming on severe thunderstorms in the United States - Seeley, Jacob T.; Romps, David M. (Journal of Climate, 2015)
How will warming temperatures influence thunderstorm severity? This question can be explored by using climate models to diagnose changes in large-scale convective instability (CAPE) and wind shear, conditions that are known to be conducive to the formation of severe thunderstorms. First, an ensemble of climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is evaluated on its ability to reproduce a radiosonde climatology of such storm-favorable conditions in the current climate’s spring and summer seasons, focusing on the contiguous United States (CONUS). Of the 11 climate models evaluated, a high-performing subset of four (GFDL CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, MRI-CGCM3, and NorESM1-M) is identified. Second, the twenty-first-century changes in the frequency of environments favorable to severe thunderstorms are calculated in these high-performing models as they are forced by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions pathways. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the models predict consistent CONUS-mean fractional springtime increases in the range of 50%–180% by the end of the twenty-first century; for the summer, three of the four models predict increases in the range of 40%–120% and one model predicts a small decrease. This disagreement between the models is traced to divergent projections for future CAPE and boundary layer humidity in the Great Plains. This paper also explores the sensitivity of the results to the relative weight given to wind shear in determining how “favorable” a large-scale environment is for the development of severe thunderstorms, and it is found that this weighting is not the dominant source of uncertainty in projections of future thunderstorm severity.
Keywords: Convective storms,Wind shear,CAPE,Climate change,Hail

Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoidable. Report Prepared for the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development - SEGCC (Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change, Sigma Xi and the United Nations Foundation, 2007)

REVIEW: Searching for resilience: Addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services - Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A. (Journal of Applied Ecology, 2016)
The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience‐based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long‐term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision‐making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We conclude that future work should focus on testing and implementing these pathways in different contexts to make ecosystem services provisioning more robust to changing disturbance regimes and advance our understanding of how to cope with change and uncertainty in ecosystem management.

Forest disturbances under climate change - Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2017)
Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

Evaluation of constraints to water quality improvements in the Western Lake Erie Basin - Sekaluvu, Lawrence; Zhang, Lefei; Gitau, Margaret (Journal of Environmental Management, 2018)
Keywords: Water quality Total Phosphorus Soluble Reactive Phosphorus Western Lake Erie Basin Precipitation Land management

Alkenone and boron-based Pliocene pCO2 records - Seki, Osamu; Foster, Gavin L.; Schmidt, Daniela N.; Mackensen, Andreas; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Pancost, Richard D. (Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2010)
Keywords: palaeo-pCO2 Pliocene alkenone δ13C boron isotopes ODP Site 999

Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited - Selby, Jan; Dahi, Omar S.; Fröhlich, Christiane; Hulme, Mike (Political Geography, 2017)
Keywords: Climate change Syria Drought Civil war

Diversity in thermal affinity among key piscivores buffers impacts of ocean warming on predator–prey interactions - Selden, Rebecca L.; Batt, Ryan D.; Saba, Vincent S.; Pinsky, Malin L. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: climate change functional diversity marine predator–prey spatial overlap species distribution model

Analyzing the relationship between ocean temperature anomalies and coral disease outbreaks at broad spatial scales - Selig, Elizabeth R.; Drew Harvell, C.; Bruno, John F.; Willis, Bette L.; Page, Cathie A.; Casey, Kenneth S.; Sweatman, Hugh (Coral Reefs and Climate Change: Science and Management, 2013)
Keywords: Coral reefs and islands—Environmental aspects Climatic changes—Environmental aspects

Observation of glacial isostatic adjustment in “stable” North America with GPS - Sella, Giovanni F.; Stein, Seth; Dixon, Timothy H.; Craymer, Michael; James, Thomas S.; Mazzotti, Stephane; Dokka, Roy K. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2007)
Keywords: 0726 Ice sheets 1211 Non-tectonic deformation 1221 Lunar and planetary geodesy and gravity 1236 Rheology of the lithosphere and mantle 1243 Space geodetic surveys

Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe - Semenza, Jan (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2015)

Environmental suitability of Vibrio infections in a warming climate: An early warning system - Semenza, Jan C.; Trinanes, Joaquin; Lohr, Wolfgang; Sudre, Bertrand; Löfdahl, Margareta; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime; Nichols, Gordon L.; Rocklöv, Joacim (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2017)

The Idea of Justice - Sen, Amartya (Belknap Press, 2011)

Predicting Skipjack Tuna Dynamics and Effects of Climate Change Using SEAPODYM with Fishing and Tagging Data - Senina, Inna; Lehodey, Patrick; Calmettes, Beatriz; Nicol, Simon; Caillot, Sylvain; Hampton, John; Williams, Peter (Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC), 2016)

The relative contribution of waves, tides, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels on U.S. West Coast sandy beaches - Serafin, Katherine A.; Ruggiero, Peter; Stockdon, Hilary F. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
To better understand how individual processes combine to cause flooding and erosion events, we investigate the relative contribution of tides, waves, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels (TWLs) at the shoreline of U.S. West Coast sandy beaches. Extreme TWLs, defined as the observed annual maximum event and the simulated 100 year return level event, peak in Washington, and are on average larger in Washington and Oregon than in California. The relative contribution of wave‐induced and still water levels (SWL) to the 100 year TWL event is similar to that of the annual maximum event; however, the contribution of storm surge to the SWL doubles across events. Understanding the regional variability of TWLs will lead to a better understanding of how sea level rise, changes in storminess, and possible changes in the frequency of major El Niños may impact future coastal flooding and erosion along the U.S. West Coast and elsewhere.

Non-economic Loss and Damage in the Context of Climate Change: Understanding the Challenges - Serdeczny, Olivia; Waters, Eleanor; Chan, Sander (Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik [German Development Institute], 2016)
ISBN: 978-3-88985-682-1

La Tuna Fire, city's biggest by acreage, now 80% contained, officials say - Serna, Joseph (Los Angeles Times, 2017)

The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification - Serreze, M. C.; Barrett, A. P.; Stroeve, J. C.; Kindig, D. N.; Holland, M. M. (The Cryosphere, 2009)

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting - Serreze, Mark C.; Stroeve, Julienne (Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2015)
September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability.

Metrics to monitor the status of fishing communities: An Alaska state of the state retrospective 1980–2010 - Sethi, Suresh Andrew; Riggs, William; Knapp, Gunnar (Ocean & Coastal Management, 2014)

Routledge Handbook on Urbanization and Global Environmental Change - Seto, Karen C.; Solecki, William D.; Griffith, Corrie A. (Routledge, 2016)

Indiana’s Hardwood Industry: Its Economic Impact - Settle, Jeffrey; Gonso, Chris; Seidl, Mike (Indiana State Department of Agriculture, 2016)

Regional economic impacts of climate change: A computable general equilibrium analysis for an Alaska fishery - Seung, Chang; Ianelli, James (Natural Resource Modeling, 2016)
Keywords: Sea surface temperature climate change Eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock fishery economic impacts

Arctic sea-ice decline weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation - Sévellec, Florian; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Liu, Wei (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Narrative Timeline of the Pacific Northwest 2015 Fire Season - Sexton, Tim; Perkins, Jay; Rogers, Gene; Kerr, David; Engleman, Deanna; Wall, Deana; Swedberg, Tim; Pence, Morgan; Peterson, Janice; Graw, Rick; Murphy, Kathy; Strawn, Kathryn (USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, 2016)

Economic and Financial Dimensions to a Climate Resilient Transportation Infrastructure [webinar] - Seylier, Emily; Veraart, Niek; Bartholomew, Ian; Stander, Daniel; Croope, Silvana (Transportation Research Board, 2016)

Regional Climate Action Plan 2.0 [web tool] - SFRCCC (South Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (SFRCCC), 2017)

Managing the 2011 drought: A climate services partnership - Shafer, Mark; Brown, David; McNutt, Chad (Climate in Context, 2016)
Keywords: drought climate services Southern Great Plains climate communication NIDIS

Rio Grande-Bravo Climate Outlook: A Summary of Survey Responses - Shafer, Mark; Garfin, Gregg (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program, 2014)

Potential changes in the distributions of western North America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios - Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Thompson, Robert S. (Ecosystems, 2001)

NC governor declares state of emergency ahead of 'powerful' Hurricane Irma: 'Get ready' - Shaffer, Josh; Bennett, Abbie; Bylythe, Anne (The News & Observer, 2017)

Diverse coral communities in naturally acidified waters of a Western Pacific reef - Shamberger, Kathryn E. F.; Cohen, Anne L.; Golbuu, Yimnang; McCorkle, Daniel C.; Lentz, Steven J.; Barkley, Hannah C. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Keywords: coral reefs ocean acidification carbonate chemistry diversity Palau calcification 1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 1630 Impacts of global change 4220 Coral reef systems 4271 Physical and chemical properties of seawater 4806 Carbon cycling

Toward improved public health outcomes from urban nature - Shanahan, Danielle F.; Lin, Brenda B.; Bush, Robert; Gaston, Kevin J.; Dean, Julie H.; Barber, Elizabeth; Fuller, Richard A. (American Journal of Public Health, 2015)
There is mounting concern for the health of urban populations as cities expand at an unprecedented rate. Urban green spaces provide settings for a remarkable range of physical and mental health benefits, and pioneering health policy is recognizing nature as a cost-effective tool for planning healthy cities.Despite this, limited information on how specific elements of nature deliver health outcomes restricts its use for enhancing population health. We articulate a framework for identifying direct and indirect causal pathways through which nature delivers health benefits, and highlight current evidence.We see a need for a bold new research agenda founded on testing causality that transcends disciplinary boundaries between ecology and health. This will lead to cost-effective and tailored solutions that could enhance population health and reduce health inequalities.

The realpolitik of building codes: Overcoming practical limitations to climate resilience - Shapiro, Shari (Building Research & Information, 2016)

The Edwards aquifer: A resource in conflict - Sharp Jr., John M.; Banner, Jay L. (GSA Today, 1997)

Managing agricultural phosphorus to minimize water quality impacts - Sharpley, Andrew (Scientia Agricola, 2016)

Climate change and allergic disease - Shea, K.M.; Truckner, R.T.; Weber, R.W.; Peden, D.B. (Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, 2008)

The political ecology of climate adaptation assistance: Alaska Natives, displacement, and relocation - Shearer, C. (Journal of Political Ecology, 2012)

Long-term sea surface temperature variability along the U.S. East Coast - Shearman, R. Kipp; Lentz, Steven J. (Journal of Physical Oceanography, 2010)
Sea surface temperature variations along the entire U.S. East Coast from 1875 to 2007 are characterized using a collection of historical observations from lighthouses and lightships combined with recent buoy and shore-based measurements. Long-term coastal temperature trends are warming in the Gulf of Maine [1.0° ± 0.3°C (100 yr)−1] and Middle Atlantic Bight [0.7° ± 0.3°C (100 yr)−1], whereas trends are weakly cooling or not significant in the South Atlantic Bight [−0.1° ± 0.3°C (100 yr)−1] and off Florida [−0.3° ± 0.2°C (100 yr)−1]. Over the last century, temperatures along the northeastern U.S. coast have warmed at a rate 1.8–2.5 times the regional atmospheric temperature trend but are comparable to warming rates for the Arctic and Labrador, the source of coastal ocean waters north of Cape Hatteras (36°N). South of Cape Hatteras, coastal ocean temperature trends match the regional atmospheric temperature trend. The observations and a simple model show that along-shelf transport, associated with the mean coastal current system running from Labrador to Cape Hatteras, is the mechanism controlling long-term temperature changes for this region and not the local air–sea exchange of heat.
Keywords: Sea surface temperature

Pest and allergen exposure and abatement in inner-city asthma: A Work Group Report of the American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology Indoor Allergy/Air Pollution Committee - Sheehan, William J.; Rangsithienchai, Pitud A.; Wood, Robert A.; Rivard, Don; Chinratanapisit, Sasawan Perzanowski, Matthew S.; Chew, Ginger L.; Seltzer, James M.; Matsui, Elizbeth C.; Phipatanakul, Wanda (Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, 2010)
Keywords: added by ERG

Climate change and schools: Environmental hazards and resiliency - Sheffield, Perry; Uijttewaal, Simone; Stewart, James; Galvez, Maida (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2017)

Disturbance and distributions: Avoiding exclusion in a warming world - Sheil, Douglas (Ecology and Society, 2016)
I highlight how disturbance determines species distributions and the implications for conservation practice. In particular, I describe opportunities to mitigate some of the threats to species resulting from climate change. Ecological theory shows that disturbance processes can often slow or prevent the exclusion of species by competitors and that different disturbance regimes result in different realized niches. There is much evidence of disturbance influencing where species occur. For example, disturbance can lower the high elevation treeline, thus expanding the area for high elevation vegetation that cannot otherwise persist under tree cover. The role of disturbance in influencing interspecific competition and resulting species persistence and distributions appears unjustly neglected. I identify various implications, including opportunities to achieve in situ conservation by expanding plant species ranges and reducing species vulnerability to competitive exclusion. Suitable frequencies, scales, intensities, spatial configurations, and timings of the right forms of disturbance can improve the persistence of targeted species in a wide range of contexts. Such options could reduce the extinctions likely to be associated with climate change. More generally, these mechanisms and the resulting realizable niche also offer novel insights to understanding and manipulating species distributions.
Keywords: coexistence competition-colonization trade-off competitive displacement competitive hierarchy elevation intermediate-disturbance-hypothesis source-sink dynamics succession

Highway freight transportation disruptions under an extreme environmental event: The case of Hurricane Katrina - Shen, G.; Aydin, S. G. (International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 2014)
A safe, resilient, and sustainable transportation system for efficient freight flow is critically important to a nation’s economy. A major disruption to the transportation system due to extreme natural or human disasters can significantly affect the freight movement in the system. The purpose of this research was to develop a general framework to study disruptions to freight flows under an extreme event and apply the framework to retro-analyze the impact of 2005 Hurricane Katrina to the freight movement on the US highway network using a geographical information system, assignment models, and performance measures. Freight movement dynamics prior to and after the disaster are analyzed using aggregated measures such as vehicle mile traveled and vehicle time traveled for different types of roads in urban and rural areas in the USA. This research shows that when a disaster occurs to a part of the highway transportation network, the freight flow changes are not only local, but also regional and national, indicating that applying solely distance-based methods to modeling flow disruption effects may not capture the whole picture. The research provides some insights for pre‐ and post‐disaster decision makings that help lead to a resilient freight highway transportation system.

Influence of 2000–2050 climate change on particulate matter in the United States: Results from a new statistical model - Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Murray, L. T. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2017)
ACP

Likely responses of native and invasive salmonid fishes to climate change in the Rocky Mountains and Appalachian Mountains - Shepard, Bradley B.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Koel, Todd; Kulp, Matthew A.; Hitt, Nathaniel (Climate Change in Wildlands: Pioneering Approaches to Science and Management, 2016)
Effects of climate change over the next century will have important consequences for freshwater fish distributions and abundance. A fish’s body temperature closely mirrors that of its environment. Consequently, the physiology, ontogeny, and life histories of freshwater fishes are regulated by the timing and magnitude of streamflow and temperature regimes, which are directly influenced by climatic conditions.

The protective role of coastal marshes: A systematic review and meta-analysis - Shepard, C. C.; Crain, C. M.; Beck, M. W. (PLOS ONE, 2011)
BACKGROUND: Salt marshes lie between many human communities and the coast and have been presumed to protect these communities from coastal hazards by providing important ecosystem services. However, previous characterizations of these ecosystem services have typically been based on a small number of historical studies, and the consistency and extent to which marshes provide these services has not been investigated. Here, we review the current evidence for the specific processes of wave attenuation, shoreline stabilization and floodwater attenuation to determine if and under what conditions salt marshes offer these coastal protection services. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a thorough search and synthesis of the literature with reference to these processes. Seventy-five publications met our selection criteria, and we conducted meta-analyses for publications with sufficient data available for quantitative analysis. We found that combined across all studies (n = 7), salt marsh vegetation had a significant positive effect on wave attenuation as measured by reductions in wave height per unit distance across marsh vegetation. Salt marsh vegetation also had a significant positive effect on shoreline stabilization as measured by accretion, lateral erosion reduction, and marsh surface elevation change (n = 30). Salt marsh characteristics that were positively correlated to both wave attenuation and shoreline stabilization were vegetation density, biomass production, and marsh size. Although we could not find studies quantitatively evaluating floodwater attenuation within salt marshes, there are several studies noting the negative effects of wetland alteration on water quantity regulation within coastal areas. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that salt marshes have value for coastal hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation. Because we do not yet fully understand the magnitude of this value, we propose that decision makers employ natural systems to maximize the benefits and ecosystem services provided by salt marshes and exercise caution when making decisions that erode these services.
Shepard, Christine C Crain, Caitlin M Beck, Michael W Meta-Analysis Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Review United States PLoS One. 2011;6(11):e27374. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0027374. Epub 2011 Nov 23.
Keywords: Conservation of Natural Resources Ecosystem Floods Geography Humans Internationality Publications Seawater Sodium Chloride Water Movements Wetlands

Climate justice - Shepard, Peggy M.; Corbin-Mark, Cecil (Environmental Justice, 2009)

Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty - Shepherd, John; Caldeira, Ken; Cox, Peter; Haigh, Joanna; Keith, David; Launder, Brian; Mace, Georgina; MacKerron, Gordon; Pyle, John; Rayner, Steve; Redgwell, Catherine; Watson, Andrew (The Royal Society, 2009)
ISBN: 978-0-85403-773-5

A review of current investigations of urban-induced rainfall and recommendations for the future - Shepherd, J Marshall (Earth Interactions, 2005)

Spatiotemporal trends in human vulnerability and adaptation to heat across the United States - Sheridan, Scott C.; Dixon, P. Grady (Anthropocene, 2017)
Keywords: Heat mortality Climate change Heat wave Distributed lag nonlinear model

Assessing variability in the impacts of heat on health outcomes in New York City over time, season, and heat-wave duration - Sheridan, Scott C.; Lin, Shao (EcoHealth, 2014)
While the impacts of heat upon mortality and morbidity have been frequently studied, few studies have examined the relationship between heat, morbidity, and mortality across the same events. This research assesses the relationship between heat events and morbidity and mortality in New York City for the period 1991–2004. Heat events are defined based on oppressive weather types as determined by the Spatial Synoptic Classification. Morbidity data include hospitalizations for heat-related, respiratory, and cardiovascular causes; mortality data include these subsets as well as all-cause totals. Distributed-lag models assess the relationship between heat and health outcome for a cumulative 15-day period following exposure. To further refine analysis, subset analyses assess the differences between early- and late-season events, shorter and longer events, and earlier and later years. The strongest heat–health relationships occur with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and heat-related hospital admissions. The impacts of heat are greater during longer heat events and during the middle of summer, when increased mortality is still statistically significant after accounting for mortality displacement. Early-season heat waves have increases in mortality that appear to be largely short-term displacement. The impacts of heat on mortality have decreased over time. Heat-related hospital admissions have increased during this time, especially during the earlier days of heat events. Given the trends observed, it suggests that a greater awareness of heat hazards may have led to increased short-term hospitalizations with a commensurate decrease in mortality.

The distributional history and ecology of mangrove vegetation along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastal region - Sherrod, C.L.; McMillan, C. (Contributions in Marine Science, 1985)

Nutrient dynamics in an alpine headwater stream: Use of continuous water quality sensors to examine responses to wildfire and precipitation events - Sherson, Lauren R.; Van Horn, David J.; Gomez-Velez, Jesus D.; Crossey, Laura J.; Dahm, Clifford N. (Hydrological Processes, 2015)
Keywords: nutrient dynamics continuous monitoring wildfire monsoonal storms water quality headwater streams

Explaining progress in climate adaptation planning across 156 U.S. municipalities - Shi, Linda; Chu, Eric; Debats, Jessica (Journal of the American Planning Association, 2015)
Problem, research strategy, and findings: Cities are increasingly experiencing the effects of climate change and taking steps to adapt to current and future natural hazard risks. Research on these efforts has identified numerous barriers to climate adaptation planning, but has not yet systematically evaluated the relative importance of different constraints for a large number of diverse cities. We draw on responses from 156 U.S. cities that participated in a 2011 global survey on local adaptation planning, 60% of which are planning for climate change. We use logistic regression analysis to assess the significance of 13 indicators measuring political leadership, fiscal and administrative resources, ability to obtain and communicate climate information, and state policies in predicting the status of adaptation planning. In keeping with the literature, we find that greater local elected officials? commitment, higher municipal expenditures per capita, and an awareness that the climate is already changing are associated with cities engaging in adaptation planning. The presence of state policies on climate adaptation is surprisingly not a statistically significant predictor, suggesting that current policies are not yet strong enough to increase local adaptation planning. However, the model's sampling bias toward larger and more environmentally progressive cities may mask the predictive power of state policies and other indicators.Takeaway for practice: State governments have an opportunity to increase local political commitment by integrating requirements for climate-risk evaluations into existing funding streams and investment plans. Regional planning entities also can help overcome the lack of local fiscal capacity and political support by facilitating the exchange of information, pooling and channeling resources, and providing technical assistance to local planners.
Keywords: Urban Adaptation

Roadmap towards justice in urban climate adaptation research - Shi, L. D.; Chu, E.; Anguelovski, I.; Aylett, A.; Debats, J.; Goh, K.; Schenk, T.; Seto, K. C.; Dodman, D.; Roberts, D.; Roberts, J. T.; VanDeveer, S. D. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)
The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21) highlighted the importance of cities to climate action, as well as the unjust burdens borne by the world's most disadvantaged peoples in addressing climate impacts. Few studies have documented the barriers to redressing the drivers of social vulnerability as part of urban local climate change adaptation efforts, or evaluated how emerging adaptation plans impact marginalized groups. Here, we present a roadmap to reorient research on the social dimensions of urban climate adaptation around four issues of equity and justice: (1) broadening participation in adaptation planning; (2) expanding adaptation to rapidly growing cities and those with low financial or institutional capacity; (3) adopting a multilevel and multi-scalar approach to adaptation planning; and (4) integrating justice into infrastructure and urban design processes. Responding to these empirical and theoretical research needs is the first step towards identifying pathways to more transformative adaptation policies.
Keywords: Urban Adaptation Climate justice

Future Forests of the Northern United States - Shifley, Stephen R.; Moser, W. Keith (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 2016)

Impact of weather on downhill ski lift ticket sales - Shih, Charles; Nicholls, Sarah; Holecek, Donald F. (Journal of Travel Research, 2009)
Skiing heavily relies on specific weather and environmental conditions to make participation both feasible and enjoyable. The lack of published research on the relationships among ski activity, weather, and climate is, therefore, surprising, especially in light of mounting evidence regarding climate change. The analyses of the influence of daily weather variations on daily ski lift ticket sales at two Michigan ski resorts presented here appear to be the first of their kind. Results suggest that weather variables such as minimum and maximum temperature, snow depth, and wind chill do indeed have a statistically significant impact on downhill ski lift ticket sales. The regression models developed could be used by outdoor recreation and tourism providers for both short-term decision making and longer-term planning and management activities, in particular those involving consideration of climate change and potential adaptation strategies.
Keywords: weather variability,climate change,skiing,Michigan

Northern Hemisphere component of the global Circumpolar Active Layer Monitory (CALM) program - Shiklomanov, N.E.; Streletskiy, D.A.; Nelson, F.E. (Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Permafrost, 2012)

California Tribes Fish-Use: Final Report - Shilling, Fraser; Negrette, April; Biondini, Lori; Cardenas, Susana (University of California-Davis, 2014)

Contaminated fish consumption in California’s Central Valley Delta - Shilling, Fraser; White, Aubrey; Lippert, Lucas; Lubell, Mark (Environmental Research, 2010)
Keywords: Fish contamination Mercury Fish consumption Subsistence fishing TMDL Clean Water Act

The role of health in urban climate adaptation: An analysis of six U.S. cities - Shimamoto, Mark M.; McCormick, Sabrina (Weather, Climate, and Society, 2017)
Climate change threatens the health of urban residents in many ways. This qualitative study aims to understand how six U.S. cities are considering health adaptation when responding to climate change; 65 semistructured interviews were conducted with salient stakeholders across six U.S. cities (Boston, Massachusetts; Los Angeles, California; Portland, Oregon; Raleigh, North Carolina; Tampa, Florida; and Tucson, Arizona), and transcripts were analyzed to identify common themes. Each city’s (or county’s) most recent climate action plan was also analyzed. This study found that interviewees’ ability to understand the connection between climate and health was a major determinant for health adaptation implementation. In addition, institutional fragmentation in governance made it difficult to incorporate health concerns into broader climate planning. However, cross-sectoral collaborations and considerations of health cobenefits were shown to help overcome these barriers. These findings offer valuable insight regarding how policy makers and practitioners can safeguard public health from the effects of climate change.
Keywords: Social Science,Disease,Emergency preparedness,Flood events,Heat islands,Societal impacts

Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions - Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Seltzer, Karl; Shindell, Cary (Nature Climate Change, 2018)
Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions 1 . Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations 2 . A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits3,4. However, 2 °C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 °C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a ‘standard’ 2 °C scenario to 1.5 °C or could achieve 2 °C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 ± 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with ~40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security - Shindell, Drew; Kuylenstierna, Johan C. I.; Vignati, Elizabeth; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Markus; Klimont, Zbigniew; Anenberg, Susan C.; Muller, Nicholas; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Raes, Frank; Schwartz, Joel; Faluvegi, Greg; et al. (Science, 2012)
Keywords: black carbon; hydrological cycle; air-quality; emissions; ozone; impacts; projections; mortality; aerosols; monsoon

The social cost of methane: Theory and applications - Shindell, D. T.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Collins, W. J. (Faraday Discussions, 2017)
Methane emissions contribute to global warming, damage public health and reduce the yield of agricultural and forest ecosystems. Quantifying these damages to the planetary commons by calculating the social cost of methane (SCM) facilitates more comprehensive cost-benefit analyses of methane emissions control measures and is the first step to potentially incorporating them into the marketplace. Use of a broad measure of social welfare is also an attractive alternative or supplement to emission metrics focused on a temperature target in a given year as it incentivizes action to provide benefits over a broader range of impacts and timescales. Calculating the SCM using consistent temporal treatment of physical and economic processes and incorporating climate- and air quality-related impacts, we find large SCM values, e.g. [similar]$2400 per ton and [similar]$3600 per ton with 5% and 3% discount rates respectively. These values are [similar]100 and 50 times greater than corresponding social costs for carbon dioxide. Our results suggest that [similar]110 of 140 Mt of identified methane abatement via scaling up existing technology and policy options provide societal benefits that outweigh implementation costs. Within the energy sector, renewables compare far better against use of natural gas in electricity generation when incorporating these social costs for methane. In the agricultural sector, changes in livestock management practices, promoting healthy diets including reduced beef and dairy consumption, and reductions in food waste have been promoted as ways to mitigate emissions, and these are shown here to indeed have the potential to provide large societal benefits ([similar]$50-150 billion per year). Examining recent trends in methane and carbon dioxide, we find that increases in methane emissions may have offset much of the societal benefits from a slowdown in the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions. The results indicate that efforts to reduce methane emissions via policies spanning a wide range of technical, regulatory and behavioural options provide benefits at little or negative net cost. Recognition of the full SCM, which has typically been undervalued, may help catalyze actions to reduce emissions and thereby provide a broad set of societal benefits.

No sticks in my bundle: Rethinking the Indian land tenure problem - Shoemaker, Jessica A. (University of Kansas Law Review, 2015)

Complexity's shadow: American Indian property, sovereignty, and the future - Shoemaker, Jessica A. (Michigan Law Review, 2017)

Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the western tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability - Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie A. (Global and Planetary Change, 2016)
Keywords: Tropical Pacific Extreme waves Swell Climate change Pacific Islands Extratropical cyclones

Overview of the El Paso Kay Bailey Hutchison Desalination Plant - Shubert, R. Alan (El Paso Water Utilities, Public Service Board, 2015)

Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California - Shukla, Shraddhanand; Safeeq, Mohammad; AghaKouchak, Amir; Guan, Kaiyu; Funk, Chris (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: California drought drought predictability 1812 Drought 1922 Forecasting

Annual drought in California: Association with monthly precipitation and climate phases - Shukla, Shraddhanand; Steinemann, Anne; Iacobellis, Sam F.; Cayan, Daniel R. (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2015)
Annual precipitation in California is more variable than in any other state and is highly influenced by precipitation in winter months. A primary question among stakeholders is whether low precipitation in certain months is a harbinger of annual drought in California. Historical precipitation data from 1895 to 2013 are investigated to identify leading monthly indicators of annual drought in each of the seven climate divisions (CDs) as well as statewide. For this study, drought conditions are defined as monthly/annual (October–September) precipitation below the 20th/30th percentile, and a leading indicator is defined as a monthly drought preceding or during an annual drought that has the strongest association (i.e., joint probability of occurrence) with a statewide annual drought. Monthly precipitation variability and contributions to annual precipitation, along with joint probabilities of drought among the winter months, are first analyzed. Then the probabilities of annual drought and the variability in leading indicators are analyzed according to different climate phases and CDs. This study identified December within a water year as being the leading indicator that is most frequently associated with annual drought statewide (56%) and in most of the CDs (the highest was CD2 at 65%). Associated with its leading-indicator status, December drought was most frequently associated with drought in other winter months (joint probability > 30%). Results from this study can help stakeholders to understand and assess the likelihood of annual drought events given monthly precipitation preceding or early in the water year.
Keywords: Drought,Precipitation,Climate variability,Emergency preparedness,Risk assessment

Risks, health consequences, and response challenges for small-island-based populations: Observations from the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season - Shultz, James M.; Kossin, James P.; Shepherd, J. Marshall; Ransdell, Justine M.; Walshe, Rory; Kelman, Ilan; Galea, Sandro (Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 2018)
The intensely active 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season provided an opportunity to examine how climate drivers, including warming oceans and rising seas, exacerbated tropical cyclone hazards. The season also highlighted the unique vulnerabilities of populations residing on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to the catastrophic potential of these storms. During 2017, 22 of the 29 Caribbean SIDS were affected by at least one named storm, and multiple SIDS experienced extreme damage. This paper aims to review the multiplicity of storm impacts on Caribbean SIDS throughout the 2017 season, to explicate the influences of climate drivers on storm formation and intensity, to explore the propensity of SIDS to sustain severe damage and prolonged disruption of essential services, to document the spectrum of public health consequences, and to delineate the daunting hurdles that challenged emergency response and recovery operations for island-based, disaster-affected populations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 13)
Keywords: climate change climate driver disaster disaster response hazard health consequences hurricane risk Small Island Developing States tropical cyclone tropical storm vulnerability

Prenatal ambient air pollution exposure and the risk of stillbirth: Systematic review and meta-analysis of the empirical evidence - Siddika, Nazeeba; Balogun, Hamudat A; Amegah, Adeladza K; Jaakkola, Jouni J K (Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 2016)
Background Individual studies on the relations between ambient air pollution and the risk of stillbirth have provided contradictory results. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise the existing evidence.Methods We conducted a systematic search of three databases: PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science, from their time of inception to mid-April, 2015. Original studies of any epidemiological design were included. Data from eligible studies were extracted by two investigators. To calculate the effect estimates (EE), the random effects model was used with their corresponding 95% CI.Results 13 studies met the inclusion criteria. Although not reaching statistical significance, all the effect estimates for the risk of stillbirth were systematically elevated in relation to mean prenatal exposure to NO2 per 10 ppb (EE=1.066, 95% CI 0.965 to 1.178, n=3), CO per 0.4 ppm (EE=1.025, 95% CI 0.985 to 1.066, n=3), SO2 per 3 ppb (EE=1.022, 95% CI 0.984 to 1.062, n=3,), PM2.5 per 4 μg/m3 (EE=1.021, 95% CI 0.996 to 1.046, n=2) and PM10 per 10 μg/m3 (EE=1.014, 95% CI 0.948 to 1.085, n=2). The effect estimates for SO2, CO, PM10 and O3 were highest for the third trimester exposure. Two time series studies used a lag term of not more than 6 days preceding stillbirth, and both found increased effect estimates for some pollutants.Conclusions The body of evidence suggests that exposure to ambient air pollution increases the risk of stillbirth. Further studies are needed to strengthen the evidence.

Resilient incoherence—Seeking common language for climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable development - Siders, Anne (The Role of International Environmental Law in Disaster Risk Reduction, 2016)

Groundwater use for irrigation—A global inventory - Siebert, S.; Burke, J.; Faures, J. M.; Frenken, K.; Hoogeveen, J.; Döll, P.; Portmann, F. T. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2010)
HESS

Seasonal and interannual oxygen variability on the Washington and Oregon continental shelves - Siedlecki, S. A.; Banas, N. S.; Davis, K. A.; Giddings, S.; Hickey, B. M.; MacCready, P.; Connolly, T.; Geier, S. (Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 2015)
Keywords: hypoxia oxygen respiration upwelling 4834 Hypoxic environments 0466 Modeling 1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 4279 Upwelling and convergences 4219 Continental shelf and slope processes

Experiments with seasonal forecasts of ocean conditions for the northern region of the California Current upwelling system - Siedlecki, Samantha A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Hermann, Albert J.; Nguyen, Thanh Tam; Bond, Nicholas A.; Newton, Jan A.; Williams, Gregory D.; Peterson, William T.; Alin, Simone R.; Feely, Richard A. (Scientific Reports, 2016)

The importance of freshwater to spatial variability of aragonite saturation state in the Gulf of Alaska - Siedlecki, Samantha A.; Pilcher, Darren J.; Hermann, Albert J.; Coyle, Ken; Mathis, Jeremy (Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2017)
High-latitude and subpolar regions like the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) are more vulnerable than equatorial regions to rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, in part due to local processes that amplify the global signal. Recent field observations have shown that the shelf of the GOA is currently experiencing seasonal corrosive events (carbonate mineral saturation states Ω, Ω < 1), including suppressed Ω in response to ocean acidification as well as local processes like increased low-alkalinity glacial meltwater discharge. While the glacial discharge mainly influences the inner shelf, on the outer shelf, upwelling brings corrosive waters from the deep GOA. In this work, we develop a high-resolution model for carbon dynamics in the GOA, identify regions of high variability of Ω, and test the sensitivity of those regions to changes in the chemistry of glacial meltwater discharge. Results indicate the importance of this climatically sensitive and relatively unconstrained regional freshwater forcing for Ω variability in the nearshore. The increase was nearly linear at 0.002 Ω per 100 µmol/kg increase in alkalinity in the freshwater runoff. We find that the local winds, biological processes, and freshwater forcing all contribute to the spatial distribution of Ω and identify which of these three is highly correlated to the variability in Ω. Given that the timing and magnitude of these processes will likely change during the next few decades, it is critical to elucidate the effect of local processes on the background ocean acidification signal using robust models, such as the one described here.

Alaska Regional Action Plan for the Southeastern Bering Sea: NOAA Fisheries Climate Science Strategy - Sigler, M.; Hollowed, A.; Holsman, K.; Zador, S.; Haynie, A.; Himes-Cornell, A.; Stabeno, P. (NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 2016)

Variation in annual production of copepods, euphausiids, and juvenile walleye pollock in the southeastern Bering Sea - Sigler, Michael F.; Napp, Jeffrey M.; Stabeno, Phyllis J.; Heintz, Ronald A.; Lomas, Michael W.; Hunt Jr, George L. (Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2016)
Keywords: Climate Sea ice Productivity Zooplankton Walleye pollock Bering Sea Match-mismatch

Drought, snails, and large-scale die-off of southern U.S. salt marshes - Silliman, Brian R.; van de Koppel, Johan; Bertness, Mark D.; Stanton, Lee E.; Mendelssohn, Irving A. (Science, 2005)
Salt marshes in the southeastern United States have recently experienced massive die-off, one of many examples of widespread degradation in marine and coastal ecosystems. Although intense drought is thought to be the primary cause of this die-off, we found snail grazing to be a major contributing factor. Survey of marsh die-off areas in three states revealed high-density fronts of snails on die-off edges at 11 of 12 sites. Exclusion experiments demonstrated that snails actively converted marshes to exposed mudflats. Salt addition and comparative field studies suggest that drought-induced stress and grazers acted synergistically and to varying degrees to cause initial plant death. After these disturbances, snail fronts formed on die-off edges and subsequently propagated through healthy marsh, leading to cascading vegetation loss. These results, combined with model analyses, reveal strong interactions between increasing climatic stress and grazer pressure, both potentially related to human environmental impacts, which amplify the likelihood and intensity of runaway collapse in these coastal systems.

Trees at Work: Economic Accounting For Forest Ecosystem Services in the U.S. South - Sills, Erin O.; Moore, Susan E.; Cubbage, Frederick W.; McCarter, Kelley D.; Holmes, Thomas P.; Mercer, D. Evan (U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 2017)

Do mountain pine beetle outbreaks change the probability of active crown fire in lodgepole pine forests? - Simard, Martin; Romme, William H.; Griffin, Jacob M.; Turner, Monica G. (Ecological Monographs, 2011)
Disturbance interactions have received growing interest in ecological research in the last decade. Fire and bark beetle outbreaks have recently increased in severity and extent across western North America, raising concerns about their possible interactions. Although it is often presumed that bark beetle outbreaks increase probability of active crown fire by producing high loads of surface and canopy dead fuels, empirical data are scarce and results are ambivalent. We combined field measurements and modeling to address the following question: How do fuel characteristics, microclimate, and potential fire behavior change with time since a severe mountain pine beetle outbreak in Pinus contorta forests of Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, USA)? We measured surface and canopy fuels, and soil surface temperature in a time‐since‐beetle‐outbreak chronosequence (n = 35 sites) from undisturbed to 36 years post‐outbreak, including stands in red‐ and gray‐needle stages (respectively, 1–2 and 3–5 years post‐outbreak). Field data were used to parameterize the fire behavior model NEXUS and predict potential fire behavior at each site. Dead surface fuel loads of all size categories did not differ among undisturbed, red, and gray‐stage stands. Compared to undisturbed sites, red and gray‐stage sites had on average 53% lower canopy bulk density, 42% lower canopy fuel load, and 29% lower canopy moisture content, but had similar canopy base heights (3.1 m). In subsequent decades, coarse wood loads doubled and canopy base height declined to 0 m. Modeling results suggested that undisturbed, red, and gray‐stage stands were unlikely to exhibit transition of surface fires to tree crowns (torching), and that the likelihood of sustaining an active crown fire (crowning) decreased from undisturbed to gray‐stage stands. Simulated fire behavior was little affected by beetle disturbance when wind speed was either below 40 km/h or above 60 km/h, but at intermediate wind speeds, probability of crowning in red‐ and gray‐stage stands was lower than in undisturbed stands, and old post‐outbreak stands were predicted to have passive crown fires. Results were consistent across a range of fuel moisture scenarios. Our results suggest that mountain pine beetle outbreaks in Greater Yellowstone may reduce the probability of active crown fire in the short term by thinning lodgepole pine canopies.

Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979–2008 - Simmonds, Ian; Keay, Kevin (Geophysical Research Letters, 2009)
Keywords: Arctic climate Arctic storms climate change 0750 Sea ice 1620 Climate dynamics 1616 Climate variability 3305 Climate change and variability 3349 Polar meteorology

Economic Effectiveness of Implementing a Statewide Building Code: The Case of Florida - Simmons, Kevin M.; Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Done, James (SSRN, 2017)

Ozone trends across the United States over a period of decreasing NOx and VOC emissions - Simon, Heather; Reff, Adam; Wells, Benjamin; Xing, Jia; Frank, Neil (Environmental Science & Technology, 2015)

Can there be a science of complex systems? - Simon, Herbert A. (Proceedings from the International Conference on Complex Systems on Unifying Themes in Complex Systems, 2000)

A web-based tool for the development of Intensity Duration Frequency curves under changing climate - Simonovic, Slobodan P.; Schardong, Andre; Sandink, Dan; Srivastav, Roshan (Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016)
Keywords: Intensity-duration-frequency curve Climate change Decision support system Canada

Optimal timing of salvage harvest in response to a stochastic infestation - Sims, Charles (Natural Resource Modeling, 2011)
Keywords: Forest disturbance salvage harvest real options Brownian motion mountain pine beetle

Increasing Amb a 1 content in common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) pollen as a function of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration - Singer, Ben D.; Ziska, Lewis H.; Frenz, David A.; Gebhard, Dennis E.; Straka, James G. (Functional Plant Biology, 2005)
Ch3,6

Results of an assessment to identify potential barriers to sustainable agriculture on American Indian reservations in the Western United States - Singletary, Loretta; Emm, Staci; Brummer, Fara Ann; Hill, George C.; Lewis, Steve; Hebb, Vicki (The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension, 2016)

Collaborative modeling to assess drought resiliency of snow‐fed river dependent communities in the western United States: A case study in the Truckee‐Carson River System - Singletary, Loretta; Sterle, Kelley (Water, 2017)

Eutrophication will increase during the 21st century as a result of precipitation changes - Sinha, E.; Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V. (Science, 2017)
Nitrogen input from river runoff is a major cause of eutrophication in estuaries and coastal waters. This is a serious problem that is widely expected to intensify as climate change strengthens the hydrological cycle. To address the current lack of adequate analysis, Sinha et al. present estimates of riverine nitrogen loading for the continental United States, based on projections of precipitation derived from climate models (see the Perspective by Seitzinger and Phillips). Anticipated changes in precipitation patterns are forecast to cause large and robust increases in nitrogen fluxes by the end of the century.Science, this issue p. 405; see also p. 350Eutrophication, or excessive nutrient enrichment, threatens water resources across the globe. We show that climate change–induced precipitation changes alone will substantially increase (19 ± 14%) riverine total nitrogen loading within the continental United States by the end of the century for the “business-as-usual” scenario. The impacts, driven by projected increases in both total and extreme precipitation, will be especially strong for the Northeast and the corn belt of the United States. Offsetting this increase would require a 33 ± 24% reduction in nitrogen inputs, representing a massive management challenge. Globally, changes in precipitation are especially likely to also exacerbate eutrophication in India, China, and Southeast Asia. It is therefore imperative that water quality management strategies account for the impact of projected future changes in precipitation on nitrogen loading.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/357/6349/405.full.pdf

The Value of Climate Amenities: Evidence from US Migration Decisions - Sinha, Paramita; Cropper, Maureen L. (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2013)

Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions. Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment. PNNL-21185 - Skaggs, R.; Hibbard, K.; Frumhoff, Peter; Lowry, Thomas; Middleton, Richard; Pate, Ron; Tidwell, Vince; Arnold, Jeffrey; Avert, Kristen; Janetos, Anthony; Izaurralde, Cesar; Rice, Jennie; et al. (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 2012)

Bayesian Inference of Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves For Infrastructure Design - Skahill, Brian E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Cheng, Linyin; Byrd, Aaron; Kanney, Joseph (Army Engineer Research and Development Center, 2016)

Climate Change Adaptation Actions and Food Security in Rural Alaska - Skean, Vanessa W. (Green Mountain College, 2016)

Ecosystem processes are rarely included in tactical fisheries management - Skern‐Mauritzen, Mette; Ottersen, Geir; Handegard, Nils Olav; Huse, Geir; Dingsør, Gjert E; Stenseth, Nils C; Kjesbu, Olav S (Fish and Fisheries, 2016)
Fish stock productivity, and thereby sensitivity to harvesting, depends on physical (e.g. ocean climate) and biological (e.g. prey availability, competition and predation) processes in the ecosystem. The combined impacts of such ecosystem processes and fisheries have lead to stock collapses across the world. While traditional fisheries management focuses on harvest rates and stock biomass, incorporating the impacts of such ecosystem processes are one of the main pillars of the ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM). Although EAFM has been formally adopted widely since the 1990s, little is currently known to what extent ecosystem drivers of fish stock productivity are actually implemented in fisheries management. Based on worldwide review of more than 1200 marine fish stocks, we found that such ecosystem drivers were implemented in the tactical management of only 24 stocks. Most of these cases were in the North Atlantic and north‐east Pacific, where the scientific support is strong. However, the diversity of ecosystem drivers implemented, and in the approaches taken, suggests that implementation is largely a bottom‐up process driven by a few dedicated experts. Our results demonstrate that tactical fisheries management is still predominantly single‐species oriented taking little account of ecosystem processes, implicitly ignoring that fish stock production is dependent on the physical and biological conditions of the ecosystem. Thus, while the ecosystem approach is highlighted in policy, key aspects of it tend yet not to be implemented in actual fisheries management.

Implications of twenty-first century climate change on Northeastern United States maple syrup production: Impacts and adaptations - Skinner, Christopher B.; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Chabot, Brian F. (Climatic Change, 2010)
Previous research on the impacts of maple syrup production in the Northeastern United States has been based on correlative relationships between syrup production and average temperature. Here a simple biologically and physically-based model of sapflow potential is used to assess observed changes in sapflow across the Northeastern US from 1980 to 2006; document the correspondence between these observations and independent downscaled atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of conditions during this period; and quantify changes in sapflow potential through 2100. The sapflow model is able to capture the spatial and temporal (in terms of the start date of sapflow) variations of sapflow that are observed across the Northeast. Likewise the AOGCM simulations reflect the mean number of sapflow days and the timing of sapflow during the 1980–2006 overlap period. Through the twenty-first century, warming winter temperatures will result in a decline in the number of sapflow days if traditional sap collection schedules are maintained. Under the A1fi emissions scenario the number of sapflow days decreases by up to 14 days. However, the changes in climate also translate the optimal timing of sap collection to earlier in the year. Across the region, the time period that maximizes the number of sapflows days becomes as much as 30 days earlier by 2100 under the A1fi emissions scenario. Provided this change is accounted for by modifying the start of the traditional sap collection schedule, there is essentially no net loss of sapflow days across the majority of the region, with a net increase of sapflow days indicated in the extreme north.

Waterfowl production from winter wheat fields in North and South Dakota - Skone, Brandi R.; Rotella, Jay J.; Walker, Johann (The Journal of Wildlife Management, 2016)
The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America produces more than 50% of North America's upland-nesting ducks. With the recent increase in economic value of some cash-crops and the potential to lose productive nesting habitat enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), there has been interest in evaluating the efficacy of alternative farming practices to provide additional breeding habitat for waterfowl. We evaluated and compared daily survival rates (DSR) of duck nests (Anas spp.) in winter wheat with those in perennial cover. We also examined the number of hatched nests/ha in each habitat and compared them to estimates in spring wheat to put habitat-specific estimates of nest survival in perspective. We monitored 1,195 nests in winter wheat and 3,147 in perennial cover in North and South Dakota on 13–19, 10.36-km2 sites each year from 2010 to 2012. In 2010, we also monitored 75 nests in spring wheat. We used an information-theoretic approach to develop and evaluate a set of competing models based on plausible and previously established covariates affecting nest survival. Across all species, nest survival was at least as high in winter wheat as in perennial cover, and for northern pintails and mallards, estimated nest survival rates were greater in winter wheat. Nest survival also varied by year and study area, was positively related to nest age, and was negatively related to the number of wetland basins, the proportion of cropland in the landscape, and vegetation density. Density of hatched nests in perennial cover (0.14/ha) was on average twice as high as nests in winter wheat fields (0.07/ha), which was in turn 4 times higher than estimates for spring wheat fields (0.02/ha). Our results provide evidence that winter wheat could be a useful tool for wildlife managers seeking to add productive nesting habitat in landscapes under intensive crop production. © 2015 The Wildlife Society.

Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes - Slangen, A. B. A.; Carson, M.; Katsman, C. A.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L. L. A.; Stammer, D. (Climatic Change, 2014)
We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty.