Surface climate and streamflow variability in the western United States and their relationship to large-scale circulation indices - Redmond, Kelly T.; Koch, Roy W. (Water Resources Research, 1991)
Keywords: 1833 Hydroclimatology 1860 Streamflow 3309 Climatology 4215 Climate and interannual variability

Declines in pinyon pine cone production associated with regional warming - Redmond, Miranda D.; Forcella, Frank; Barger, Nichole N. (Ecosphere, 2012)
Keywords: climate change mast seeding Pinus edulis pinyon-juniper woodlands regeneration reproduction

Interacting effects of climate and landscape physiography on piñon pine growth using an individual-based approach - Redmond, Miranda D.; Kelsey, Katharine C.; Urza, Alexandra K.; Barger, Nichole N. (Ecosphere, 2017)
Keywords: climate change climate–growth responses climatic water deficit dendrochronology elevation pinyon pine plant population and community dynamics semi-arid woodland soil properties tree growth

Unique challenges facing southwestern Tribes: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation - Redsteer, M.; Hiza, Bemis; Chief, K.D.; Gautam, M.; Middleton, B.R.; Tsosie, R. (Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, 2013)

Disaster Risk Assessment Case Study: Recent Drought on the Navajo Nation, Southwestern United States. Background Paper Prepared for the 2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction - Redsteer, M. Hiza, Kelley, K.B., Francis, H. and Block, D. (UNISDR, 2010)

Monitoring and Analysis of Sand Dune Movement and Growth on the Navajo Nation, Southwestern United States. Fact Sheet Number 3085 - Redsteer, M.H.; Bogle, R.C.; Vogel, J.M. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2011)

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era - Reed, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.

Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility - Reed, Sasha C.; Coe, Kirsten K.; Sparks, Jed P.; Housman, David C.; Zelikova, Tamara J.; Belnap, Jayne (Nature Climate Change, 2012)

Biocrusts in the context of global change - Reed, Sasha C.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; Kuske, Cheryl R.; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony; Oliver, Mel; Darby, Brian; Sancho, Leopoldo G.; Sinsabaugh, Robert L.; Belnap, Jayne (Biological Soil Crusts: An Organizing Principle in Drylands, 2016)
A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.

Phenological mismatch strongly affects individual fitness but not population demography in a woodland passerine - Reed, Thomas E.; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Visser, Marcel E. (Journal of Animal Ecology, 2013)
Populations are shifting their phenology in response to climate change, but these shifts are often asynchronous among interacting species. Resulting phenological mismatches can drive simultaneous changes in natural selection and population demography, but the links between these interacting processes are poorly understood. Here we analyse 37 years of data from an individual‐based study of great tits (Parus major) in the Netherlands and use mixed‐effects models to separate the within‐ and across‐year effects of phenological mismatch between great tits and caterpillars (a key food source for developing nestlings) on components of fitness at the individual and population levels. Several components of individual fitness were affected by individual mismatch (i.e. late breeding relative to the caterpillar food peak date), including the probability of double‐brooding, fledgling success, offspring recruitment probability and the number of recruits. Together these effects contributed to an overall negative relationship between relative fitness and laying dates, that is, selection for earlier laying on average. Directional selection for earlier laying was stronger in years where birds bred on average later than the food peak, but was weak or absent in years where the phenology of birds and caterpillars matched (i.e. no population mismatch). The mean number of fledglings per female was lower in years when population mismatch was high, in part because fewer second broods were produced. Population mismatch had a weak effect on the mean number of recruits per female, and no effect on mean adult survival, after controlling for the effects of breeding density and the quality of the autumnal beech (Fagus sylvatica) crop. These findings illustrate how climate change‐induced mismatch can have strong effects on the relative fitness of phenotypes within years, but weak effects on mean demographic rates across years. We discuss various general mechanisms that influence the extent of coupling between breeding phenology, selection and population dynamics in open populations subject to strong density regulation and stochasticity.

Time to evolve? Potential evolutionary responses of Fraser River sockeye salmon to climate change and effects on persistence - Reed, Thomas E.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hague, Merran J.; Patterson, David A.; Meir, Eli; Waples, Robin S.; Hinch, Scott G. (PLOS ONE, 2011)
Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change.

Regulation of water balance in mangroves - Reef, Ruth; Lovelock, Catherine E. (Annals of Botany, 2015)
Background Mangroves are a group of highly salt-tolerant woody plants. The high water use efficiency of mangroves under saline conditions suggests that regulation of water transport is a crucial component of their salinity tolerance.Scope This review focuses on the processes that contribute to the ability of mangroves to maintain water uptake and limit water loss to the soil and the atmosphere under saline conditions, from micro to macro scales. These processes include: (1) efficient filtering of the incoming water to exclude salt; (2) maintenance of internal osmotic potentials lower than that of the rhizosphere; (3) water-saving properties; and (4) efficient exploitation of less-saline water sources when these become available.Conclusions Mangroves are inherently plastic and can change their structure at the root, leaf and stand levels in response to salinity in order to exclude salt from the xylem stream, maintain leaf hydraulic conductance, avoid cavitation and regulate water loss (e.g. suberization of roots and alterations of leaf size, succulence and angle, hydraulic anatomy and biomass partitioning). However, much is still unknown about the regulation of water uptake in mangroves, such as how they sense and respond to heterogeneity in root zone salinity, the extent to which they utilize non-stomatally derived CO2 as a water-saving measure and whether they can exploit atmospheric water sources.
10.1093/aob/mcu174

Effects of climate change on rangeland vegetation in the Northern Rockies - Reeves, Matt C.; Manning, Mary E.; DiBenedetto, Jeff P.; Palmquist, Kyle A.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R. (Climate Change and Rocky Mountain Ecosystems, 2018)
A longer growing season with climate change is expected to increase net primary productivity of many rangeland types, especially those dominated by grasses, although responses will depend on local climate and soil conditions. Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide may increase water use efficiency and productivity of some species. In many cases, increasing wildfire frequency and extent will be damaging for big sagebrush and other shrub species that are readily killed by fire. The widespread occurrence of cheatgrass and other nonnatives facilitates frequent fire through annual fuel accumulation. Shrub species that sprout following fire may be quite resilient to increased disturbance, but may be outcompeted by more drought tolerant species over time.

Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States - Reeves, Matthew C.; Moreno, Adam L.; Bagne, Karen E.; Running, Steven W. (Climatic Change, 2014)
The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO2 enrichment and nitrogen deposition were evaluated as drivers of NPP. Across all three scenarios, rangeland NPP increased by 0.26 % year−1 (7 kg C ha−1 year−1) but increases were not apparent until after 2030 and significant regional variation in NPP was revealed. The Desert Southwest and Southwest assessment regions exhibited declines in NPP of about 7 % by 2100, while the Northern and Southern Great Plains, Interior West and Eastern Prairies all experienced increases over 25 %. Grasslands dominated by warm season (C4 photosynthetic pathway) species showed the greatest response to temperature while cool season (C3 photosynthetic pathway) dominated regions responded most strongly to CO2 enrichment. Modeled NPP responses compared favorably with experimental results from CO2 manipulation experiments and to NPP estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Collectively, these results indicate significant and asymmetric changes in NPP for U.S. rangelands may be expected.

Seasonal cycle shifts in hydroclimatology over the western United States - Regonda, S.K.; Rajagopalan, B.; Clark, M.; Pitlick, J. (Journal of Climate, 2005)

Coastal risks, nature-based defenses and the economics of adaptation: An application in the Gulf of Mexico, USA - Reguero, Borja G; Bresch, David N; Beck, Mike; Calil, Juliano; Meliane, Imen (Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 2014)
The need to reduce risks from coastal storms and climate change in coastal areas has given rise to efforts to make greater use of integrated ecosystem-based approaches. Assessment of the role and cost efficiency of adaptation measures is increasingly demanded. Applying the Economics of Climate Adaptation framework in the US Gulf Coast, we compare nature-based defenses, artificial defenses, and policy measures for adaptation and risk reduction and quantify their costs and benefits under a variety of economic growth and climate change scenarios. Our analyses are spatially explicit and all models, tools and information are open source. The framework includes (i) a probabilistic assessment of hazards, (ii) estimation of damages and (iii) assessment of adaptation and risk reduction measures. We perform sensitivity analyses to understand the parameters that created the most variation in risk assessment and most influenced estimates of cost effectiveness. We find that high rates of economic growth and coastal development are likely to create greater risks in the near term than climate change, due to the increase in exposed assets. Nature-based solutions such as oyster reef and marsh restoration are particularly cost effective, but their cost-effectiveness is highly dependent on where these measures are used. As decision-makers look for the most cost effective group of measures for adaptation and risk reduction, these approaches and results should be particularly useful for informing management priorities.
Keywords: Economics Climate Adaptation Risk Nature based Defenses Ecosystem Based Adaptation

Knocking back invasions: Variable resistance and resilience to multiple cold spells in native vs. nonnative fishes - Rehage, J. S.; Blanchard, J. R.; Boucek, R. E.; Lorenz, J. J.; Robinson, M. (Ecosphere, 2016)
Keywords: Key words: climate change cold spell extreme climate events fishes nonnative species resilience resistance Special Feature: Extreme Cold Spells

North American vegetation model for land-use planning in a changing climate: A solution to large classification problems - Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Crookston, Nicholas L.; Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Campbell, Elizabeth M. (Ecological Applications, 2012)

Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States - Rehfeldt, Gerald E; Crookston, Nicholas L; Warwell, Marcus V; Evans, Jeffrey S (International Journal of Plant Sciences, 2006)

Chapter 6: Poleward expansion of the atmospheric circulation - Reichler, Thomas (Climate Change (Second Edition), 2016)
Keywords: Atmospheric circulation Hadley cell Storm tracks

Comparison of the technical potential for hydrogen, battery electric, and conventional light-duty vehicles to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum consumption in the United States - Reichmuth, David S.; Lutz, Andrew E.; Manley, Dawn K.; Keller, Jay O. (International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2013)
Keywords: Greenhouse gas emissions Biofuels Renewable hydrogen

Critical review of health impacts of wildfire smoke exposure - Reid, Colleen E.; Brauer, Michael; Johnston, Fay H.; Jerrett, Michael; Balmes, John R.; Elliott, Catherine T. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2016)

Evaluation of a heat vulnerability index on abnormally hot days: An environmental public health tracking study - Reid, Colleen E.; Mann, Jennifer K.; Alfasso, Ruth; English, Paul B.; King, Galatea C.; Lincoln, Rebecca A.; Margolis, Helene G.; Rubado, Dan J.; Sabato, Joseph E.; West, Nancy L.; Woods, Brian; Navarro, Kathleen M.; et al. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2012)

Mapping community determinants of heat vulnerability - Reid, C.E.; O’Neill, M.S.; Gronlund, C.J.; Brines, S.J.; Brown, D.G.; Diez-Roux, A.V.; Schwartz, J. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2009)

Mainstreaming community-based adaptation into national and local planning - Reid, Hannah; Huq, Saleemul (Climate and Development, 2014)

Climate Change and Conflict: An Annex to the USAID Climate-Resilient Development Framework - Reiling, Kirby; Brady, Cynthia; Furlow, John; Ackley, Mary (U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), 2015)

Cost and constructability of permafrost test sections along the Alaska Highway, Yukon. - Reimchen, Donna; Doré, Guy; Fortier, Daniel; Stanley, Bill; Walsh, Robin (2009 Annual Conference, Transportation Association of Canada, 2009)

Effects of climate change on moose populations: Exploring the response horizon through biometric and systems models - Rempel, Robert S. (Ecological Modelling, 2011)
Keywords: Climate change simulation Moose population dynamics Wolf predation Parasite Biometric model Systems model Stella

Modifiers of short-term effects of ozone on mortality in eastern Massachusetts—A case-crossover analysis at individual level - Ren, Cizao; Melly, Steve; Schwartz, Joel (Environmental Health, 2010)
Substantial epidemiological studies demonstrate associations between exposure to ambient ozone and mortality. A few studies simply examine the modification of this ozone effect by individual characteristics and socioeconomic status, but socioeconomic status was usually coded at the city level.
Keywords: Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Air Pollutants Air Pollutants: analysis Air Pollution Air Pollution: statistics & numerical data Cardiovascular Diseases Cardiovascular Diseases: mortality Diabetes Mellitus Diabetes Mellitus: mortality Environmental Exposure Environmental Exposure: analysis Environmental Monitoring Female Humans Male Massachusetts Massachusetts: epidemiology Middle Aged Ozone Ozone: analysis Respiration Disorders Respiration Disorders: mortality Social Class

Ozone modifies associations between temperature and cardiovascular mortality: Analysis of the NMMAPS data - Ren, C.; Williams, G. M.; Morawska, L.; Mengersen, K.; Tong, S. (Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 2008)
Both ambient ozone and temperature are associated with human health. However, few data are available on whether ozone modifies temperature effects. This study aims to explore whether ozone modified associations between maximum temperature and cardiovascular mortality in the USA.
Keywords: Adult Aged Air Pollutants Air Pollutants: analysis Air Pollutants: toxicity Cardiovascular Diseases Cardiovascular Diseases: etiology Cardiovascular Diseases: mortality Environmental Monitoring Environmental Monitoring: methods Female Hot Temperature Hot Temperature: adverse effects Humans Male Middle Aged Oxidants, Photochemical Oxidants, Photochemical: analysis Oxidants, Photochemical: toxicity Ozone Ozone: analysis Ozone: toxicity Seasons Temperature United States United States: epidemiology Urban Health Urban Health: statistics & numerical data Weather

Adaptation to hot climate and strategies to alleviate heat stress in livestock production - Renaudeau, D.; Collin, A.; Yahav, S.; de Basilio, V.; Gourdine, J. L.; Collier, R. J. (Animal, 2011)
Despite many challenges faced by animal producers, including environmental problems, diseases, economic pressure, and feed availability, it is still predicted that animal production in developing countries will continue to sustain the future growth of the world's meat production. In these areas, livestock performance is generally lower than those obtained in Western Europe and North America. Although many factors can be involved, climatic factors are among the first and crucial limiting factors of the development of animal production in warm regions. In addition, global warming will further accentuate heat stress-related problems. The objective of this paper was to review the effective strategies to alleviate heat stress in the context of tropical livestock production systems. These strategies can be classified into three groups: those increasing feed intake or decreasing metabolic heat production, those enhancing heat-loss capacities, and those involving genetic selection for heat tolerance. Under heat stress, improved production should be possible through modifications of diet composition that either promotes a higher intake or compensates the low feed consumption. In addition, altering feeding management such as a change in feeding time and/or frequency, are efficient tools to avoid excessive heat load and improve survival rate, especially in poultry. Methods to enhance heat exchange between the environment and the animal and those changing the environment to prevent or limit heat stress can be used to improve performance under hot climatic conditions. Although differences in thermal tolerance exist between livestock species (ruminants > monogastrics), there are also large differences between breeds of a species and within each breed. Consequently, the opportunity may exist to improve thermal tolerance of the animals using genetic tools. However, further research is required to quantify the genetic antagonism between adaptation and production traits to evaluate the potential selection response. With the development of molecular biotechnologies, new opportunities are available to characterize gene expression and identify key cellular responses to heat stress. These new tools will enable scientists to improve the accuracy and the efficiency of selection for heat tolerance. Epigenetic regulation of gene expression and thermal imprinting of the genome could also be an efficient method to improve thermal tolerance. Such techniques (e.g. perinatal heat acclimation) are currently being experimented in chicken.
Keywords: livestock animals heat stress nutrition cooling genetic

Risk Governance: Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World - Renn, O. (Routledge, 2008)

Risk Governance: Towards an Integrative Approach - Renn, Ortwin; Graham, Peter (International Risk Governance Council, 2005)

Temporal context affects the observed rate of climate‐driven range shifts in tree species - Renwick, Katherine M; Rocca, Monique E (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2015)

The RMI 2011 Census of Population and Housing: Summary and Highlights Only - Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) Office of the President. Economic Policy Planning and Statistics Office (2012)

Increased water deficit decreases Douglas fir growth throughout western US forests - Restaino, Christina M.; Peterson, David L.; Littell, Jeremy (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Changes in tree growth rates can affect tree mortality and forest feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. As air temperature increases, evaporative demand also increases, increasing effective drought in forest ecosystems. Using a spatially comprehensive network of Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) chronologies from 122 locations that represent distinct climate environments in the western United States, we show that increased temperature decreases growth via vapor pressure deficit (VPD) across all latitudes. Using an ensemble of global circulation models, we project an increase in both the mean VPD associated with the lowest growth extremes and the probability of exceeding these VPD values. As temperature continues to increase in future decades, we can expect deficit-related stress to increase and consequently Douglas fir growth to decrease throughout its US range.

Climate change in the oceans: Evolutionary versus phenotypically plastic responses of marine animals and plants - Reusch, Thorsten B. H. (Evolutionary Applications, 2014)
Keywords: adaptation genetic diversity ocean acidification ocean warming phenotypic buffering physiological tolerance selection

Global warming: Improve economic models of climate change - Revesz, Richard L.; Howard, Peter H.; Arrow, Kenneth; Goulder, Lawrence H.; Kopp, Robert E.; Livermore, Michael A.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Sterner, Thomas (Nature, 2014)

Urban areas - Revi, A.; Satterthwaite, D. E.; Aragón-Durand, F.; Corfee-Morlot, J.; Kiunsi, R. B. R.; Pelling, M.; Roberts, D. C.; Solecki, W. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 2014)

Elevated CO2 further lengthens growing season under warming conditions - Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; Trlica, M. J.; McMaster, Gregory S.; Andales, Allan A.; LeCain, Dan R.; Morgan, Jack A. (Nature, 2014)

Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change - Reyna, Janet L.; Chester, Mikhail V. (Nature Communications, 2017)

Predicting Sea-Level Rise Vulnerability of Terrestrial Habitat and Wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands - Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Courtot, Karen N.; Krause, Crystal M. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2012)

Will the effects of sea-level rise create ecological traps for Pacific island seabirds? - Reynolds, Michelle H.; Courtot, Karen N.; Berkowitz, Paul; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Moore, Janet; Flint, Elizabeth (PLOS ONE, 2015)
More than 18 million seabirds nest on 58 Pacific islands protected within vast U.S. Marine National Monuments (1.9 million km 2 ). However, most of these seabird colonies are on low-elevation islands and sea-level rise (SLR) and accompanying high-water perturbations are predicted to escalate with climate change. To understand how SLR may impact protected islands and insular biodiversity, we modeled inundation and wave-driven flooding of a globally important seabird rookery in the subtropical Pacific. We acquired new high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and used the Delft3D wave model and ArcGIS to model wave heights and inundation for a range of SLR scenarios (+0.5, +1.0, +1.5, and +2.0 m) at Midway Atoll. Next, we classified vegetation to delineate habitat exposure to inundation and identified how breeding phenology, colony synchrony, and life history traits affect species-specific sensitivity. We identified 3 of 13 species as highly vulnerable to SLR in the Hawaiian Islands and quantified their atoll-wide distribution (Laysan albatross, Phoebastria immutabilis ; black-footed albatross, P . nigripes ; and Bonin petrel, Pterodroma hypoleuca ). Our models of wave-driven flooding forecast nest losses up to 10% greater than passive inundation models at +1.0 m SLR. At projections of + 2.0 m SLR, approximately 60% of albatross and 44% of Bonin petrel nests were overwashed displacing more than 616,400 breeding albatrosses and petrels. Habitat loss due to passive SLR may decrease the carrying capacity of some islands to support seabird colonies, while sudden high-water events directly reduce survival and reproduction. This is the first study to simulate wave-driven flooding and the combined impacts of SLR, groundwater rise, and storm waves on seabird colonies. Our results highlight the need for early climate change planning and restoration of higher elevation seabird refugia to prevent low-lying protected islands from becoming ecological traps in the face of rising sea levels.
Keywords: Hawaii Sea level Ecosystems coastal inundation birds marine ecosystems flooding impact atolls storms biodiversity Animal sexual behavior coastal effects Ocean waves Petrels Seabirds

Observations: Ocean - Rhein, M.; Rintoul, S.R.; Aoki, S.; Campos, E.; Chambers, D.; Feely, R.A.; Gulev, S.; Johnson, G.C.; Josey, S.A.; Kostianoy, A.; Mauritzen, C.; Roemmich, D.; et al. (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

Optimizing selective withdrawal from reservoirs to manage downstream temperatures with climate warming - Rheinheimer, David E.; Null, Sarah E.; Lund, Jay R. (Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2015)

Projecting 21st century snowpack trends in western USA mountains using variable-resolution CESM - Rhoades, Alan M.; Ullrich, Paul A.; Zarzycki, Colin M. (Climate Dynamics, 2017)

Building resilient communities: Preparedness and response for health care and public health professionals - Rhodes, Jerry; Gupta, Rahul (West Virginia Medical Journal, 2016)

American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks in the United States. Prepared as input to the Risky Business Project - Rhodium Group LLC (Rhodium Group, 2014)

RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions - Riahi, Keywan; Rao, Shilpa; Krey, Volker; Cho, Cheolhung; Chirkov, Vadim; Fischer, Guenther; Kindermann, Georg; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Rafaj, Peter (Climatic Change, 2011)

Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA - Rice, Karen C.; Hong, Bo; Shen, Jian (Journal of Environmental Management, 2012)
Keywords: Sea-level rise Salinity intrusion Drinking-water supply Chesapeake Bay Model simulation

Phenological shifts in hatch timing of northern shrimp Pandalus borealis - Richards, R. A. (Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2012)
The northern shrimp Pandalus borealis reaches the southern limit of its distribution in the Gulf of Maine, USA. Previous studies have revealed geographic clines in northern shrimp population parameters (growth, maturity, longevity) which co-vary with environmental temperature, and laboratory studies have confirmed temperature effects. In this study, field data were used to investigate reproductive phenology of northern shrimp in the Gulf of Maine during 1980 to 2011 in relation to ocean temperatures. Timing of the annual shrimp hatch was estimated by sampling commercial catches during the brooding and hatching period. Hatch timing metrics were regressed against composite environmental variables derived from principal component analysis of sea surface temperature and bottom temperature anomalies. Shrimp population indices (spawner abundance and mean size) were included as covariates. Shifts have occurred in timing of hatch initiation (earlier) and completion (later), with the overall result of a longer hatch period in recent years. The midpoint of the hatch period has varied without trend. All hatch timing metrics were significantly related to temperature variables, several of which have warmed significantly during the study period. In the short term, phenological shifts in hatch timing of northern shrimp may be beneficial because they effectively increase the window of opportunity for larvae to encounter good survival conditions. The continued warming predicted for the Gulf of Maine will likely produce further changes, some of which may be in unexpected directions.

Climate change and northern shrimp recruitment variability in the Gulf of Maine - Richards, R. Anne; Fogarty, Michael J.; Mountain, David G.; Taylor, Maureen H. (Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2012)
The northern shrimp Pandalus borealis is an important prey species in North Atlantic marine systems and is the target of major fisheries. It reaches its southern limit of distribution in the western Gulf of Maine (GOM), where temperature is thought to play an important role in its stock dynamics. We examined recruitment dynamics of northern shrimp P. borealis in the GOM from 1968 to 2011 and before and after 1999, when a shift to warmer temperatures occurred (Friedland & Hare 2007). Recruitment was related to temperature during all 3 time periods and was related to the reproductive output of the population from 1968 to 2011 and 1968 to 1999 but not in the most recent period (2000 to 2011). Colder temperatures during the pelagic larval stage were associated with higher recruitment. Recruitment variability increased coincident with the 1999 temperature shift; other changes in the physical environment and lower trophic levels of the GOM have been seen as well. Whether the increase in recruitment variability signals a regime shift in the GOM is not yet clear. Increasing the reproductive potential of GOM northern shrimp through conservation measures could help compensate for increasingly unfavorable environmental conditions (warming) and increase the chances of preserving this population and its ecological role in the GOM.

Terrestrial biosphere models need better representation of vegetation phenology: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis - Richardson, Andrew D.; Anderson, Ryan S.; Arain, M. Altaf; Barr, Alan G.; Bohrer, Gil; Chen, Guangsheng; Chen, Jing M.; Ciais, Philippe; Davis, Kenneth J.; Desai, Ankur R.; Dietze, Michael C.; Dragoni, Danilo; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2012)
Keywords: autumn senescence carbon cycle land surface model (LSM) leaf area index (LAI) model error North American Carbon Program (NACP) phenology seasonal dynamics spring onset

Climate change, phenology, and phenological control of vegetation feedbacks to the climate system - Richardson, Andrew D.; Keenan, Trevor F.; Migliavacca, Mirco; Ryu, Youngryel; Sonnentag, Oliver; Toomey, Michael (Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2013)
Keywords: Autumn senescence Biosphere–atmosphere interactions Budburst Carbon cycle Climate change Global warming Models Phenology Seasonality Spring onset

The hidden cost of wildfires: Economic valuation of health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in Southern California - Richardson, L.A.; Champ, P.A.; Loomis, J.B. (Journal of Forest Economics, 2012)

Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth - Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Hawkins, Ed; Stolpe, Martin B. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections - Ricke, K. L.; Orr, J. C.; Schneider, K.; Caldeira, K. (Environmental Research Letters, 2013)
Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We project risks to reefs in the context of three potential aragonite saturation (Ωa) thresholds. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ωa > 3.5. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), every coral reef considered will be surrounded by water with Ωa < 3 by the end of the 21st century and the reefs’ long-term fate is independent of their specific saturation threshold. However, under scenarios with significant CO 2 emissions abatement, the Ωa threshold for reefs is critical to projecting their fate. Our results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters with Ωa > 3.5 to the end of the century, very aggressive reductions in emissions are required. The spread of Ωa projections across models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, justifying a high level of confidence in these results.

Glacier status and contribution to streamflow in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, USA - Riedel, J. L.; Wilson, Steve; Baccus, William; Larrabee, Michael; Fudge, T. J.; Fountain, Andrew (Journal of Glaciology, 2015)
The Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA, currently holds 184 alpine glaciers larger than 0.01 km2 and their combined area is 30.2 ± 0.95 km2. Only four glaciers are >1 km2 and 120 of the others are <0.1 km2. This represents a loss of 82 glaciers and a 34% decrease in combined area since 1980, with the most pronounced losses occurring on south-facing aspects and in the more arid northeastern part of the range. Annual rate of loss in glacier area for seven of the largest glaciers accelerated from 0.26 km2 a−1 (1900–80) to 0.54 km2 a−1 (1980–2009). Thinning rates on four of the largest glaciers averaged nearly 1 ma−1 from 1987 to 2010, resulting in estimated volume losses of 17–24%. Combined glacial snow, firn and ice melt in the Hoh watershed is in the range 63–79 ± 7 × 106 m3, or 9–15% of total May–September streamflow. In the critical August–September period, the glacial fraction of total basin runoff increases to 18–30%, with one-third of the water directly from glacial ice (i.e. not snow and firn). Glaciers in the Elwha basin produce 12–15 ± 1.3 × 106 m3 (2.5–4.0%), while those in the Dungeness basin contribute 2.5–3.1 ± 0.28 × 106 m3 (3.0–3.8%).
Keywords: climate change glacier hydrology ice and climate mountain glaciers

Wildfire and management of forests and native fishes: Conflict or opportunity for convergent solutions? - Rieman, Bruce E.; Hessburg, Paul F.; Luce, Charles; Dare, Matthew R. (BioScience, 2010)
Wildfire is a critical land management issue in the western United States. Efforts to mitigate the effects of altered fire regimes have led to debate over ecological restoration versus species conservation framed at the conjuncture of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their respective management regimes. Fire-related management activities may disrupt watershed processes and degrade habitats of sensitive fishes. However, the restoration of forest structure, process, and functionality, including more natural fire regimes, might also benefit longer-term habitat complexity and the persistence of species and populations that are now only remnants of once-larger and more diverse habitat networks. Common language, clear communication of goals and objectives, and spatially explicit analyses of objectives will help identify conflicts and convergences of opportunities to enable more collaborative management. We explore this integration in the context of native fisheries and wildfire, but expect the approach to be relevant in other settings as well.
10.1525/bio.2010.60.6.10

Anticipated climate warming effects on bull trout habitats and populations across the interior Columbia River Basin - Rieman, Bruce E.; Isaak, Daniel; Adams, Susan; Horan, Dona; Nagel, David; Luce, Charles; Myers, Deborah (Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 2007)

Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales - Rietbroek, Roelof; Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Schröter, Jens; Dahle, Christoph (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
Dividing the sea-level budget into contributions from ice sheets and glaciers, the water cycle, steric expansion, and crustal movement is challenging, especially on regional scales. Here, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity observations and sea-level anomalies from altimetry are used in a joint inversion, ensuring a consistent decomposition of the global and regional sea-level rise budget. Over the years 2002–2014, we find a global mean steric trend of 1.38 ± 0.16 mm/y, compared with a total trend of 2.74 ± 0.58 mm/y. This is significantly larger than steric trends derived from in situ temperature/salinity profiles and models which range from 0.66 ± 0.2 to 0.94 ± 0.1 mm/y. Mass contributions from ice sheets and glaciers (1.37 ± 0.09 mm/y, accelerating with 0.03 ± 0.02 mm/y2) are offset by a negative hydrological component (−0.29 ± 0.26 mm/y). The combined mass rate (1.08 ± 0.3 mm/y) is smaller than previous GRACE estimates (up to 2 mm/y), but it is consistent with the sum of individual contributions (ice sheets, glaciers, and hydrology) found in literature. The altimetric sea-level budget is closed by coestimating a remaining component of 0.22 ± 0.26 mm/y. Well above average sea-level rise is found regionally near the Philippines (14.7 ± 4.39 mm/y) and Indonesia (8.3 ± 4.7 mm/y) which is dominated by steric components (11.2 ± 3.58 mm/y and 6.4 ± 3.18 mm/y, respectively). In contrast, in the central and Eastern part of the Pacific, negative steric trends (down to −2.8 ± 1.53 mm/y) are detected. Significant regional components are found, up to 5.3 ± 2.6 mm/y in the northwest Atlantic, which are likely due to ocean bottom pressure variations.

Rapid submarine melting of the calving faces of West Greenland glaciers - Rignot, Eric; Koppes, Michele; Velicogna, Isabella (Nature Geoscience, 2010)

Oklahoma Inter-Tribal Meeting on Climate Variability and Change: Meeting Summary Report - Riley, R.; Blanchard, P.; Peppler, R.; Bennett, T.M. Bull; Wildcat, D. (2012)

The nexus across water, energy, land and food (WELF): Potential for improved resource use efficiency? - Ringler, Claudia; Bhaduri, Anik; Lawford, Richard (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2013)

Toronto’s urban heat island—Exploring the relationship between land use and surface temperature - Rinner, Claus; Hussain, Mushtaq (Remote Sensing, 2011)

The U.S. drought of 2012 - Rippey, Bradley R. (Weather and Climate Extremes, 2015)

Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability: Bringing Together Science and Indigenous Ways of Knowing to Create Positive Solutions (Rising Voices 2 Workshop Report) - Rising Voices (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), 2014)

Pathways from Science to Action (Rising Voices 5 workshop report) - Rising Voices (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), 2017)

Attributable human-induced changes in the likelihood and magnitude of the observed extreme precipitation during Hurricane Harvey - Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)

When climate takes a village: Legal pathways toward the relocation of Alaska native villages - Ristroph, Elizaveta Barrett (Climate Law, 2017)
Keywords: adaptation indigenous peoples Alaska Native Villages relocation

Swiss needle cast in western Oregon douglas-fir plantations: 20‐Year monitoring results - Ritóková, Gabriela; Shaw, David; Filip, Greg; Kanaskie, Alan; Browning, John; Norlander, Danny (Forests, 2016)

Changes in winter conditions impact forest management in north temperate forests - Rittenhouse, Chadwick D.; Rissman, Adena R. (Journal of Environmental Management, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change impacts Forestry Adaptation Multiple stressors

The Risk Management Agency Safety Net: Market Penetration and Market Potential - RMA (USDA Risk Management Agency, 2017)

National Climate Change Policy Framework - RMI (2011)

Republic of the Marshall Islands Joint National Action Plan For Climate Change Adaptation & Disaster Risk Management 2014–2018 - RMI (2014)

Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC) Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part IV—Summary - RMJOC (Bonneville Power Administration, 2011)

Assessment of Climate and Health Impacts on Vector-Borne Diseases and Valley Fever in Arizona. Report for the Arizona Department of Health Services and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative. - Roach, M.; Brown, Heidi; Wilder, Margaret; Smith, G.; Chambers, S.; Patten, I.; Rabby, Q. (Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), 2017)

FHWA Climate Resilience Pilot Program: Washington State Department of Transportation - Roalkvam, Carol Lee; Lupes, Becky (2015)

Comparing invasive networks: Cultural and political biographies of invasive species - Robbins, Paul (Geographical Review, 2004)
Keywords: invasive species Mimosa tenuiflora Prosopis juliflora sociobiological networks

Designing net-zero energy buildings for the future climate, not for the past - Robert, Amélie; Kummert, Michaël (Building and Environment, 2012)
Keywords: Climate change Building performance simulation Net-zero energy buildings Weather data

Marine reserves can mitigate and promote adaptation to climate change - Roberts, Callum M.; O’Leary, Bethan C.; McCauley, Douglas J.; Cury, Philippe Maurice; Duarte, Carlos M.; Lubchenco, Jane; Pauly, Daniel; Sáenz-Arroyo, Andrea; Sumaila, Ussif Rashid; Wilson, Rod W.; Worm, Boris; Castilla, Juan Carlos (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Strong decreases in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the reduction trajectory resolved within the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, even these decreases will not avert serious stress and damage to life on Earth, and additional steps are needed to boost the resilience of ecosystems, safeguard their wildlife, and protect their capacity to supply vital goods and services. We discuss how well-managed marine reserves may help marine ecosystems and people adapt to five prominent impacts of climate change: acidification, sea-level rise, intensification of storms, shifts in species distribution, and decreased productivity and oxygen availability, as well as their cumulative effects. We explore the role of managed ecosystems in mitigating climate change by promoting carbon sequestration and storage and by buffering against uncertainty in management, environmental fluctuations, directional change, and extreme events. We highlight both strengths and limitations and conclude that marine reserves are a viable low-tech, cost-effective adaptation strategy that would yield multiple cobenefits from local to global scales, improving the outlook for the environment and people into the future.

Cheatgrass: Management implications in the 90's - Roberts, Thomas C. (Rangelands, 1991)

Lessons from Hurricane Katrina storm surge on bridges and buildings - Robertson, Ian N.; Riggs, H. Ronald; Yim, Solomon C.; Young, Yin Lu (Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 2007)
The storm surge associated with Hurricane Katrina caused tremendous damage along the Gulf Coast in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Similar damage was observed subsequent to the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004. In order to gain a better understanding of the performance of engineered structures subjected to coastal inundation due to tsunami or hurricane storm surge, the writers surveyed damage to bridges, buildings, and other coastal infrastructure subsequent to Hurricane Katrina. Numerous lessons were learned from analysis of the observed damage, and these are reported herein. A number of structures experienced significant structural damage due to storm surge and wave action. Structural members submerged during the inundation were subjected to significant hydrostatic uplift forces due to buoyancy, enhanced by trapped air pockets, and to hydrodynamic uplift forces due to wave action. Any floating or mobile object in the nearshore/onshore areas can become floating debris, affecting structures in two ways: impact and water damming. Foundation soils and foundation systems are at risk from shear- and liquefaction-induced scour, unless designed appropriately.

Direct impacts of recent climate warming on insect populations - Robinet, Christelle; Roques, Alain (Integrative Zoology, 2010)
Keywords: adaptation alien species climate warming phenology range distribution

Multidecadal trends in the nesting phenology of Pacific and Atlantic leatherback turtles are associated with population demography - Robinson, N. J.; Valentine, S. E.; Santidrián Tomillo, P.; Saba, V. S.; Spotila, J. R.; Paladino, F. V. (Endangered Species Research, 2014)
Knowledge of the mechanisms influencing phenology can provide insights into the adaptability of species to climate change. Here, we investigated the factors influencing multidecadal trends in the nesting phenology of the leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, in the eastern Pacific Ocean and at Sandy Point, US Virgin Islands, in the western Atlantic Ocean. Between 1993 and 2013, the median nesting date (MND) at Playa Grande occurred later, at a rate of ~0.3 d yr-1. In contrast, between 1982 and 2010, the MND at Sandy Point occurred earlier, at a rate of ~0.17 d yr-1. The opposing trends in the MND of each population were not explained by variation in the multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, North Atlantic Oscillation index, or Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index; however, the MND at Playa Grande was significantly correlated with nesting population size. We propose that changes in demography, linked to the population decline at Playa Grande, and the population recovery at Sandy Point may explain the contrasting trends in MNDs. If the observed trends in MND continue into the future, the nesting season at Playa Grande will coincide with increasingly adverse conditions for hatching success, exacerbating the already detrimental effects of climate change. Alternatively, shifts in the nesting phenology may make the Atlantic populations more resilient to climate change. Our findings highlight the increasing need for conservation efforts for eastern Pacific leatherback turtles to consider climate change mitigation practices.

Wyoming’s Big Horn general stream adjudication - Robison, Jason Anthony (Wyoming Law Review, 2015)

On-ranch grazing strategies: Context for the rotational grazing dilemma - Roche, L. M.; Cutts, B. B.; Derner, J. D.; Lubell, M. N.; Tate, K. W. (Rangeland Ecology & Management, 2015)
Keywords: attitudes conditional inference regression tree analysis decision-making grazing management practices grazing system latent class analysis prescribed grazing

Anthropogenic impacts on mosquito populations in North America over the past century - Rochlin, Ilia; Faraji, Ary; Ninivaggi, Dominick V.; Barker, Christopher M.; Kilpatrick, A. Marm (Nature Communications, 2016)

Climate change and range expansion of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) in northeastern USA: Implications for public health practitioners - Rochlin, Ilia; Ninivaggi, Dominick V.; Hutchinson, Michael L.; Farajollahi, Ary (PLOS ONE, 2013)
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse), is an invasive species with substantial biting activity, high disease vector potential, and a global distribution that continues to expand. New Jersey, southern New York, and Pennsylvania are currently the northernmost boundary of established Ae. albopictus populations in the eastern United States. Using positive geographic locations from these areas, we modeled the potential future range expansion of Ae. albopictus in northeastern USA under two climate change scenarios. The land area with environmental conditions suitable for Ae. albopictus populations is expected to increase from the current 5% to 16% in the next two decades and to 43%–49% by the end of the century. Presently, about one-third of the total human population of 55 million in northeastern USA reside in urban areas where Ae. albopictus is present. This number is predicted to double to about 60% by the end of the century, encompassing all major urban centers and placing over 30 million people under the threat of dense Ae. albopictus infestations. This mosquito species presents unique challenges to public health agencies and has already strained the resources available to mosquito control programs within its current range. As it continues to expand into areas with fewer resources and limited organized mosquito control, these challenges will be further exacerbated. Anticipating areas of potential establishment, while planning ahead and gathering sufficient resources will be the key for successful public health campaigns. A broad effort in community sanitation and education at all levels of government and the private sector will be required until new control techniques are developed that can be applied efficiently and effectively at reasonable cost to very large areas.

100 Resilient Cities - Rockerfeller Foundation (2017)

Cultural Resources Climate Change Strategy - Rockman, Marcy; Morgan, Marissa; Ziaja, Sonya; Hambrecht, George; Meadow, Alison (Cultural Resources, Partnerships, and Science and Climate Change Response Program, National Park Service, 2016)
Keywords: Climate change Cultural

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition - Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein (Population Ecology, 2012)

Climate change effects on native fauna of northeastern forests - Rodenhouse, N.L.; Christenson, L.M.; Parry, D.; Green, L.E. (Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2009)

Air pollution and hospital emergency room and admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Doña Ana County, New Mexico - Rodopoulou, Sophia; Chalbot, Marie-Cecile; Samoli, Evangelia; DuBois, David W.; San Filippo, Bruce D.; Kavouras, Ilias G. (Environmental Research, 2014)
Keywords: Particulate matter Morbidity Hospital admissions Emergency room visits Time-series regression Rural communities

Oyster reefs can outpace sea-level rise - Rodriguez, Antonio B.; Fodrie, F. Joel; Ridge, Justin T.; Lindquist, Niels L.; Theuerkauf, Ethan J.; Coleman, Sara E.; Grabowski, Jonathan H.; Brodeur, Michelle C.; Gittman, Rachel K.; Keller, Danielle A.; Kenworthy, Matthew D. (Nature Climate Change, 2014)

Centennial glacier retreat as categorical evidence of regional climate change - Roe, Gerard H.; Baker, Marcia B.; Herla, Florian (Nature Geoscience, 2017)
The near-global retreat of glaciers over the last century provides some of the most iconic imagery for communicating the reality of anthropogenic climate change to the public. Surprisingly, however, there has not been a quantitative foundation for attributing the retreats to climate change, except in the global aggregate. This gap, between public perception and scientific basis, is due to uncertainties in numerical modelling and the short length of glacier mass-balance records. Here we present a method for assessing individual glacier change based on the signal-to-noise ratio, a robust metric that is insensitive to uncertainties in glacier dynamics. Using only meteorological and glacier observations, and the characteristic decadal response time of glaciers, we demonstrate that observed retreats of individual glaciers represent some of the highest signal-to-noise ratios of climate change yet documented. Therefore, in many places, the centennial-scale retreat of the local glaciers does indeed constitute categorical evidence of climate change.

Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006 - Roemmich, Dean; Church, John; Gilson, John; Monselesan, Didier; Sutton, Philip; Wijffels, Susan (Nature Climate Change, 2015)

The Argo program: Observing the global ocean with profiling floats - Roemmich, Dean; Johnson, Gregory C.; Riser, Stephen; Davis, Russ; Gilson, John; Owens, W. Brechner; Garzoli, Silvia L.; Schmid, Claudia; Ignaszewski, Mark (Oceanography, 2009)

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C - Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2018)
The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

Vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to a loss of structural complexity - Rogers, Alice; Blanchard, Julia L.; Mumby, Peter J. (Current Biology, 2014)

Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change - Rogers, Brendan M.; Jantz, Patrick; Goetz, Scott J. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: biodiversity dispersal distribution model forecast fragmentation management migration pests and pathogens

Interaction of the onset of spring and elevated atmospheric CO2 on ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) pollen production - Rogers, C.A.; Wayne, P.M.; Macklin, E.A.; Muilenberg, M.L.; Wagner, C.J.; Epstein, P.R.; Bazzaz, F.A. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2006)

Bleaching, disease and recovery in the threatened scleractinian coral Acropora palmata in St. John, US Virgin Islands: 2003–2010 - Rogers, C. S.; Muller, E. M. (Coral Reefs, 2012)
A long-term study of the scleractinian coral Acropora palmata in the US Virgin Islands (USVI) showed that diseases, particularly white pox, are limiting the recovery of this threatened species. Colonies of A. palmata in Haulover Bay, within Virgin Islands National Park, St. John, were examined monthly in situ for signs of disease and other stressors from January 2003 through December 2009. During the study, 89.9 % of the colonies (n = 69) exhibited disease, including white pox (87 %), white band (13 %), and unknown (9 %). Monthly disease prevalence ranged from 0 to 57 %, and disease was the most significant cause of complete colony mortality (n = 17). A positive correlation was found between water temperature and disease prevalence, but not incidence. Annual average disease prevalence and incidence remained constant during the study. Colonies generally showed an increase in the estimated amount of total living tissue from growth, but 25 (36.2 %) of the colonies died. Acropora palmata bleached in the USVI for the first time during the 2005 Caribbean bleaching event. Only one of the 23 colonies that bleached appeared to die directly from bleaching. In 2005, corals that bleached had greater disease prevalence than those that did not bleach. Just over half (52 %) of the colonies incurred some physical damage. Monitoring of fragments (broken branches) that were generated by physical damage through June 2007 showed that 46.1 % died and 28.4 % remained alive; the fragments that attached to the substrate survived longer than those that did not. Recent surveys showed an increase in the total number of colonies within the reef area, formed from both asexual and sexual reproduction. Genotype analysis of 48 of the originally monitored corals indicated that 43 grew from sexual recruits supporting the conclusion that both asexual and sexual reproduction are contributing to an increase in colony density at this site.

Anthropogenic controls on overwash deposition: Evidence and consequences - Rogers, Laura J.; Moore, Laura J.; Goldstein, Evan B.; Hein, Christopher J.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge; Ashton, Andrew D. (Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface, 2015)
Keywords: human impacts sea level rise barrier island climate change impacts lidar 1630 Impacts of global change 1824 Geomorphology: general 1803 Anthropogenic effects 4217 Coastal processes 4558 Sediment transport

Statement of the Honorable Peter Rogoff, Federal Transit Administrator, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Banking Subcommittee on Housing, Transportation, and Community Development U.S. Senate Hearing on Hurricane Sandy, September 18, 2013. - Rogoff, Peter (Federal Transit Administration, 2013)

Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation - Rojas-Downing, M. Melissa; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Harrigan, Timothy; Woznicki, Sean A. (Climate Risk Management, 2017)
Keywords: Livestock Climate change Heat stress Greenhouse gas Adaptation Mitigation

The role of isohydric and anisohydric species in determining ecosystem-scale response to severe drought - Roman, D. T.; Novick, K. A.; Brzostek, E. R.; Dragoni, D.; Rahman, F.; Phillips, R. P. (Oecologia, 2015)
Ongoing shifts in the species composition of Eastern US forests necessitate the development of frameworks to explore how species-specific water-use strategies influence ecosystem-scale carbon (C) cycling during drought. Here, we develop a diagnostic framework to classify plant drought-response strategies along a continuum of isohydric to anisohydric regulation of leaf water potential (Ψ L). The framework is applied to a 3-year record of weekly leaf-level gas exchange and Ψ measurements collected in the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (Indiana, USA), where continuous observations of the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) have been ongoing since 1999. A severe drought that occurred in the middle of the study period reduced the absolute magnitude of NEE by 55 %, though species-specific responses to drought conditions varied. Oak species were characterized by anisohydric regulation of Ψ L that promoted static gas exchange throughout the study period. In contrast, Ψ L of the other canopy dominant species was more isohydric, which limited gas exchange during the drought. Ecosystem-scale estimates of NEE and gross ecosystem productivity derived by upscaling the leaf-level data agreed well with tower-based observations, and highlight how the fraction of isohydric and anisohydric species in forests can mediate net ecosystem C balance.

Permafrost thermal state in the polar Northern Hemisphere during the international polar year 2007-2009: A synthesis - Romanovsky, V. E.; Smith, Sharon L.; Christiansen, Hanne H. (Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 2010)
The permafrost monitoring network in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere was enhanced during the International Polar Year (IPY), and new information on permafrost thermal state was collected for regions where there was little available. This augmented monitoring network is an important legacy of the IPY, as is the updated baseline of current permafrost conditions against which future changes may be measured. Within the Northern Hemisphere polar region, ground temperatures are currently being measured in about 575 boreholes in North America, the Nordic region and Russia. These show that in the discontinuous permafrost zone, permafrost temperatures fall within a narrow range, with the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at most sites being higher than −2°C. A greater range in MAGT is present within the continuous permafrost zone, from above −1°C at some locations to as low as −15°C. The latest results indicate that the permafrost warming which started two to three decades ago has generally continued into the IPY period. Warming rates are much smaller for permafrost already at temperatures close to 0°C compared with colder permafrost, especially for ice-rich permafrost where latent heat effects dominate the ground thermal regime. Colder permafrost sites are warming more rapidly. This improved knowledge about the permafrost thermal state and its dynamics is important for multidisciplinary polar research, but also for many of the 4 million people living in the Arctic. In particular, this knowledge is required for designing effective adaptation strategies for the local communities under warmer climatic conditions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Keywords: permafrost; ground temperature regime; climate change; permafrost thaw; active layer; International Polar Year; Arctic regions

[The Arctic] Terrestrial permafrost [in “State of the Climate in 2015”] - Romanovsky, V. E.; Smith, S. L.; Isaksen, K.; Shiklomanov, N. I.; Streletskiy, D. A.; Kholodov, A. L.; Christiansen, H. H.; Drozdov, D. S.; Malkova, G. V.; Marchenko, S. S. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016)

A critical knowledge pathway to low-carbon, sustainable futures: Integrated understanding of urbanization, urban areas, and carbon - Romero-Lankao, P.; Gurney, K. R.; Seto, K. C.; Chester, M.; Duren, R. M.; Hughes, S.; Hutyra, L. R.; Marcotullio, P.; Baker, L.; Grimm, N. B.; Kennedy, C.; Larson, E.; et al. (Earth's Future, 2014)
Independent lines of research on urbanization, urban areas, and carbon have advanced our understanding of some of the processes through which energy and land uses affect carbon. This synthesis integrates some of these diverse viewpoints as a first step toward a coproduced, integrated framework for understanding urbanization, urban areas, and their relationships to carbon. It suggests the need for approaches that complement and combine the plethora of existing insights into interdisciplinary explorations of how different urbanization processes, and socio-ecological and technological components of urban areas, affect the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions, differentially over time and within and across cities. It also calls for a more holistic approach to examining the carbon implications of urbanization and urban areas, based not only on demographics or income but also on other interconnected features of urban development pathways such as urban form, economic function, economic-growth policies, and other governance arrangements. It points to a wide array of uncertainties around the urbanization processes, their interactions with urban socio-institutional and built environment systems, and how these impact the exchange of carbon flows within and outside urban areas. We must also understand in turn how carbon feedbacks, including carbon impacts and potential impacts of climate change, can affect urbanization processes. Finally, the paper explores options, barriers, and limits to transitioning cities to low-carbon trajectories, and suggests the development of an end-to-end, coproduced and integrated scientific understanding that can more effectively inform the navigation of transitional journeys and the avoidance of obstacles along the way.
Keywords: Urban carbon cycle Urbanization Mitigation

The food-energy-water nexus and urban complexity - Romero-Lankao, Patricia; McPhearson, Timon; Davidson, Debra J. (Nature Climate Change, 2017)

Beach erosion under rising sea-level modulated by coastal geomorphology and sediment availability on carbonate reef-fringed island coasts - Romine, Bradley M.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, L. Neil; Anderson, Tiffany R. (Sedimentology, 2016)
This study addresses gaps in understanding the relative roles of sea-level change, coastal geomorphology and sediment availability in driving beach erosion at the scale of individual beaches. Patterns of historical shoreline change for spatial relationships to geomorphology and for temporal relationships to late-Holocene and modern sea-level change are examined. The study area shoreline on the north-east coast of Oahu, Hawaii, is characterized by a series of kilometres-long beaches with repeated headland-embayed morphology fronted by a carbonate fringing reef. The beaches are the seaward edge of a carbonate sand-rich coastal strand plain, a common morphological setting in tectonically-stable tropical island coasts. Multiple lines of geological evidence indicate that the strand plain prograded atop a fringing reef platform during a period of late Holocene sea-level fall. Analysis of historical shoreline changes indicates an overall trend of erosion (shoreline recession) along headland sections of beach and an overall trend of stable to accreting beaches along adjoining embayed sections. Eighty eight percent of headland beaches eroded over the past century at an average rate of -0.12 ± 0.03 m/yr. In contrast, 56% of embayed beaches accreted at an average rate of 0.04 ± 0.03 m/yr. Given over a century of global (and local) sea-level rise, the data indicates that embayed beaches are showing remarkable resiliency. The pattern of headland beach erosion and stable to accreting embayments suggests a shift from accretion to erosion particular to the headland beaches with the initiation of modern sea-level rise. These results emphasize the need to account for localized variations in beach erosion related to geomorphology and alongshore sediment transport in attempting to forecast future shoreline change under increasing sea-level rise. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Hawaii Sea level Oahu Adaptation coastal sea-level erosion Beach shoreline

Declining summer flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: Changing seasonal hydrology and probable impacts on floodplain forests - Rood, S.B.; Pan, J.; Gill, K.M.; Franks, C.G.; Samuelson, G.M.; Shepherd, A. (Journal of Hydrology, 2008)

Perceptions of obvious and disruptive climate change: Community-based risk assessment for two native villages in Alaska - Rosales, Jon; Chapman, Jessica (Climate, 2015)

Understanding the social cost of carbon: A model diagnostic and inter-comparison study - Rose, Steven K.; Diaz, Delavane B.; Blanford, Geoffrey J. (Climate Change Economics, 2017)

Eklutna Glacier, a source of Anchorage drinking water, is disappearing drip by drip - Rosen, Yereth (Anchorage Daily News, 2017)

Interactive effects of multiple climate change variables on trophic interactions: A meta-analysis - Rosenblatt, Adam E.; Schmitz, Oswald J. (Climate Change Responses, 2014)
Climate change is expected to simultaneously alter many of the abiotic qualities of ecosystems as well as biotic interactions, especially trophic interactions. However, research to date has mostly focused on elucidating the effects of single climate change variables on individual species. Here, we use established meta-analysis techniques to synthesize the existing literature on the interactive effects of multiple climate change variables on trophic interactions.

Interactive effects of multiple climate change variables on food web dynamics: Modeling the effects of changing temperature, CO2, and water availability on a tri-trophic food web - Rosenblatt, Adam E.; Smith-Ramesh, Lauren M.; Schmitz, Oswald J. (Food Webs, 2017)
Keywords: Additive Antagonism Carnivore Drought Herbivore Plant

Resilience indicators and monitoring: An example of climate change resiliency indicators for Jamaica Bay - Rosenzweig, Bernice; Gordon, Arnold L.; Marra, John; Chant, Robert; Zappa, Christopher .J.; Parris, Adam S. (Prospects for Resilience: Insights from New York City's Jamaica Bay, 2016)

Assessing inter-sectoral climate change risks: The role of ISIMIP - Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; van Vuuren, Detlef; et al. (Environmental Research Letters, 2017)
The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socio-economic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison - Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014)
Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

Protocols for AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessments, Version 6.1 - Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, Jim W; Antle, John; Hatfield, jerry; Ruane, Alex; McDermid, Sonali; Boote, Ken; Thorburn, Peter; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Valdivia, Roberto; Porter, Cheryl; Janssen, Sander; et al. (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), 2016)

Hurricane Sandy and adaptation pathways in New York: Lessons from a first-responder city - Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William (Global Environmental Change, 2014)
Keywords: Adaptation pathways Cities Climate change Resilience Transformation

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Introduction - Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2015)

Responding to Climate Change in New York State: The ClimAID Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation - Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William; DeGaetano, Arthur; O'Grady, Megan; Hassol, Susan; Grabhorn, Paul (New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), 2011)

ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders - Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Mehrotra, S.; Dhakal, S.; Bowman, T.; Ali Ibrahim, S. (Urban Climate Change Research Network, Columbia University, 2015)
Keywords: added by ERG

Climate Change and Cities: Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network - Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William D.; Romeo-Lankao, Patricia; Mehrotra, Shagun; Dhakal, Shobhakar; Ibrahim, Somayya Ali (Cambridge University Press, 2018)

Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change - Rosenzweig, C.; Tubiello, F.N.; Goldberg, R.; Mills, E.; Bloomfield, J. (Global Environmental Change, 2002)

Adapting to the changing climate: An assessment of local health department preparations for climate change-related health threats, 2008-2012 - Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W.; Li, Jennifer (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Background Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. Methods We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011–2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Results Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed.

Coral Bleaching Recovery Plan: Identifying Management Responses to Promote Coral Recovery in Hawaiʻi - Rosinski, Anne; Walsh, William; Oliver, Thomas A.; Williams, Ivor; Gove, Jamison; Gorospe, Kelvin; Birkeland, Charles; White, Darla; Conklin, Eric (University of Hawaii, Coral Bleaching Recovery Steering Committee, 2017)

A risk‐based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world - Rosner, Ana; Vogel, Richard M.; Kirshen, Paul H. (Water Resources Research, 2014)
Traditional approaches to flood management in a nonstationary world begin with a null hypothesis test of “no trend” and its likelihood, with little or no attention given to the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. Concluding a trend exists when it does not, or rejecting a trend when it exists are known as type I and type II errors, respectively. Decision‐makers are poorly served by statistical and/or decision methods that do not carefully consider both over‐ and under‐preparation errors, respectively. Similarly, little attention is given to how to integrate uncertainty in our ability to detect trends into a flood management decision context. We show how trend hypothesis test results can be combined with an adaptation's infrastructure costs and damages avoided to provide a rational decision approach in a nonstationary world. The criterion of expected regret is shown to be a useful metric that integrates the statistical, economic, and hydrological aspects of the flood management problem in a nonstationary world.

The relative contribution of climate to changes in lesser prairie‐chicken abundance - Ross, Beth E.; Haukos, David; Hagen, Christian; Pitman, James (Ecosphere, 2016)
Managing for species using current weather patterns fails to incorporate the uncertainty associated with future climatic conditions; without incorporating potential changes in climate into conservation strategies, management and conservation efforts may fall short or waste valuable resources. Understanding the effects of climate change on species in the Great Plains of North America is especially important, as this region is projected to experience an increased magnitude of climate change. Of particular ecological and conservation interest is the lesser prairie‐chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), which was listed as “threatened” under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in May 2014. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of extreme climatic events (extreme values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) relative to intermediate (changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation) and long‐term climate variability (changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) on trends in lesser prairie‐chicken abundance from 1981 to 2014. Our results indicate that lesser prairie‐chicken abundance on leks responded to environmental conditions of the year previous by positively responding to wet springs (high PDSI) and negatively to years with hot, dry summers (low PDSI), but had little response to variation in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Additionally, greater variation in abundance on leks was explained by variation in site relative to broad‐scale climatic indices. Consequently, lesser prairie‐chicken abundance on leks in Kansas is more strongly influenced by extreme drought events during summer than other climatic conditions, which may have negative consequences for the population as drought conditions intensify throughout the Great Plains.

Assessment of the combination of temperature and relative humidity on kidney stone presentations - Ross, Michelle E.; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Song, Lihai; Goldfarb, David S.; Pulido, Jose; Warner, Steven; Furth, Susan L.; Tasian, Gregory E. (Environmental Research, 2018)
Keywords: Temperature Kidney stone presentations Nephrolithiasis Humidity Prediction

International Water and Climate Forum, 2015. Synthesis Report - Ross Strategic (Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies, 2016)

Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: A revised picture for climatic change scenarios - Rosselló, Jaume; Santana-Gallego, Maria (Climatic Change, 2014)
This paper investigates how the role of climate in tourist destination choice has changed over the last 15 years. To this end, a demand model for international tourism is estimated, including the main classic determinants but allowing a time-varying climatic sensitivity of tourists. Moreover, a complete database considering international tourism movement between 178 countries for the period 1995 to 2010 is used. Results show how turning point temperatures in origin and destination countries have changed over the period of analysis, evidencing a loss of competitiveness for traditional warm destinations. Additionally, using data for the projected growth of Gross Domestic Product per capita and climatic conditions within A2, B1 and B2 scenarios, an updated vision of their expected impact on international tourism flows is assessed, evaluating how climate change would imply a greater loss of attractiveness for traditional warm destinations around the world but would increase attractiveness for high latitude countries.

Rural housing and code enforcement: Navigating between values and housing types - Rosser, Ezra (Georgetown Journal on Poverty Law & Policy, 2006)

A resilient community is one that includes and protects everyone - Roth, Marcie (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2018)

Assessment of groundwater inundation as a consequence of sea-level rise - Rotzoll, Kolja; Fletcher, Charles H. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

Indicator approach for assessing climate change vulnerability in transportation infrastructure - Rowan, Emily; Snow, Cassandra; Choate, Anne; Rodehorst, Beth; Asam, Susan; Hyman, Robert; Kafalenos, Robert; Gye, Aung (Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2014)
From installing culverts with larger safety margins to instituting more frequent training for weather emergencies, transportation agencies around the world are adapting to extreme weather and climate change. An understanding of when and how to adapt (i.e., improve infrastructure preparedness) requires evaluating existing and future vulnerabilities to climate change and prioritizing adaptation efforts. A successful vulnerability assessment lays the groundwork for adaptation by building stakeholder relationships, spurring data collection, and prioritizing needs. One barrier faced by transportation agencies in conducting vulnerability assessments is a lack of financial and staff resources. The process of collecting climate and asset data can be particularly onerous for agencies struggling to meet daily operational needs. Two recent projects piloted a cost-effective screening method for highly vulnerable assets that used indicators developed from data already being collected by many state departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations. The indicator that libraries developed during the course of these two studies is described. The results of the data-driven vulnerability screen provide transportation managers with a low-cost starting point toward understanding their system's vulnerabilities. Future research should focus on testing the indicators to identify and eliminate areas of overlap and on evaluating the prediction accuracy for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California - Rowe, Kevin C.; Rowe, Karen M. C.; Tingley, Morgan W.; Koo, Michelle S.; Patton, James L.; Conroy, Chris J.; Perrine, John D.; Beissinger, Steven R.; Moritz, Craig (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2015)
Resurveys of historical collecting localities have revealed range shifts, primarily leading edge expansions, which have been attributed to global warming. However, there have been few spatially replicated community-scale resurveys testing whether species' responses are spatially consistent. Here we repeated early twentieth century surveys of small mammals along elevational gradients in northern, central and southern regions of montane California. Of the 34 species we analysed, 25 shifted their ranges upslope or downslope in at least one region. However, two-thirds of ranges in the three regions remained stable at one or both elevational limits and none of the 22 species found in all three regions shifted both their upper and lower limits in the same direction in all regions. When shifts occurred, high-elevation species typically contracted their lower limits upslope, whereas low-elevation species had heterogeneous responses. For high-elevation species, site-specific change in temperature better predicted the direction of shifts than change in precipitation, whereas the direction of shifts by low-elevation species was unpredictable by temperature or precipitation. While our results support previous findings of primarily upslope shifts in montane species, they also highlight the degree to which the responses of individual species vary across geographically replicated landscapes.

Climate change and tribal water rights: Removing barriers to adaptation strategies - Royster, Judith V. (Tulane Environmental Law Journal, 2013)

The energy–water nexus: Are there tradeoffs between residential energy and water consumption in arid cities? - Ruddell, Darren M.; Dixon, P. Grady (International Journal of Biometeorology, 2014)
Water scarcity, energy consumption, and air temperature regulation are three critical resource and environmental challenges linked to urban population growth. While appliance efficiency continues to increase, today’s homes are larger and residents are using more energy-consuming devices. Recent research has often described the energy–water nexus as a “tradeoff” between energy and water due to reduced temperatures resulting from irrigated vegetation. Accordingly, some arid cities have implemented landscape-conversion programs that encourage homeowners to convert their yards from grass (mesic) to drought-tolerant (xeric) landscapes to help conserve water resources. We investigated these relationships in Phoenix, Arizona by examining energy and water data for the summer months of June–September 2005 while temperature variability was analyzed from a local heat wave. Results show parallel consumption patterns with energy and water use strongly correlated and newer homes using more of both. The counterintuitive findings show that “drought-resistant” models may not be beneficial for community health, environment, or economics and that this issue is further complicated by socio-economic variables.

Economic return versus crop water productivity of maize for various nitrogen rates under full irrigation, limited irrigation, and rainfed settings in south central Nebraska - Rudnick, Daran; Irmak, Suat; Ferguson, Richard; Shaver, Tim; Djaman, Koffi; Slater, Glen; Bereuter, Aaron; Ward, Nicholas; Francis, Dennis; Schmer, Marty; Wienhold, Brian; Donk, Simon Van (Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 2016)

Health in All Policies: A Guide for State and Local Government - Rudolph, Linda; Caplan, Julia; Ben-Moshe, Karen; Dillon, Lianne (American Public Health Association and Public Health Institute, 2013)

Climate Change, Health, and Equity: Opportunities For Action - Rudolph, Linda; Gould, Solange; Berko, Jeffrey (Public Health Institute, 2015)

Long-term effects of no tillage treatment on soil N availability, N uptake, and 15N-fertilizer recovery of durum wheat differ in relation to crop sequence - Ruisi, Paolo; Saia, Sergio; Badagliacca, Giuseppe; Amato, Gaetano; Frenda, Alfonso Salvatore; Giambalvo, Dario; Di Miceli, Giuseppe (Field Crops Research, 2016)
Keywords: No tillage Conventional tillage NUE NUpE NUtE N-fertilizer recovery Mediterranean environment

El Huracán María y su efecto sobre la industria lechera de Puerto Rico - Ruiz-Ramos, Mónica; Ortiz-Colón, Guillermo (SEA del Oeste, 2018)

Persistence of Calanus finmarchicus in the western Gulf of Maine during recent extreme warming - Runge, Jeffrey A.; Ji, Rubao; Thompson, Cameron R. S.; Record, Nicholas R.; Chen, Changsheng; Vandemark, Douglas C.; Salisbury, Joseph E.; Maps, Frederic (Journal of Plankton Research, 2015)
The planktonic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, resides at the southern edge of its subarctic range in the Gulf of Maine (GoM). Here we investigate the population response of C. finmarchicus to record warming in the GoM in 2012. Demographic data from two time series stations and a plankton survey conducted in early autumn 2012 show that C. finmarchicus did not produce an autumn generation as predicted, despite warm summer and overwintering temperatures. On the contrary, we observed high abundances of the overwintering stage CV in the western GoM and a new cohort in early spring 2013 likely originating from egg production during a winter phytoplankton bloom. This spring cohort was the most abundant ever recorded in the 8-year time series. To account for these observations, we hypothesize that production of females originating from the eastern GoM and Scotian Shelf, combined with growth of copepodid stages in the Maine Coastal Current and local egg production, are the primary sources of supply maintaining high abundances in Wilkinson Basin, the primary repository of C. finmarchicus in the western GoM. Predicting fluctuations in abundance or circumstances for disappearance of C. finmarchicus in the northwest Atlantic will need models that address the roles of local production and advection.
10.1093/plankt/fbu098

Mainstreaming climate adaptation: Taking stock about “what works” from empirical research worldwide - Runhaar, Hens; Wilk, Bettina; Persson, Åsa; Uittenbroek, Caroline; Wamsler, Christine (Regional Environmental Change, 2018)
Adaptation to a changing climate is unavoidable. Mainstreaming climate adaptation objectives into existing policies, as opposed to developing dedicated adaptation policy, is widely advocated for public action. However, knowledge on what makes mainstreaming effective is scarce and fragmented. Against this background, this paper takes stock of peer-reviewed empirical analyses of climate adaptation mainstreaming, in order to assess current achievements and identify the critical factors that render mainstreaming effective. The results show that although in most cases adaptation policy outputs are identified, only in a minority of cases this translates into policy outcomes. This “implementation gap” is most strongly seen in developing countries. However, when it comes to the effectiveness of outcomes, we found no difference across countries. We conclude that more explicit definitions and unified frameworks for adaptation mainstreaming research are required to allow for future research syntheses and well-informed policy recommendations.

State Climate Summaries: Rhode Island - Runkle, Jennifer; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Easterling, David; Stewart, Brooke C.; Champion, Sarah; Stevens, Laura; Frankson, Rebekah; Sweet, William (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017)

Idaho State Climate Summary - Runkle, Jennifer; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Frankson, Rebekah; Champoin, Sarah; Stevens, Laura (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017)

State Climate Summaries: West Virginia - Runkle, Jennifer; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Frankson, Rebekah; Stewart, Brooke C. (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017)

State Climate Summaries: Texas - Runkle, Jennifer; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Nielson-Gammon, John; Frankson, Rebekah; Champion, Sarah; Stewart, Brooke C.; Romolo, Luigi; Sweet, William (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017)

State Climate Summaries: Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands - Runkle, Jennifer; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Stevens, Laura; Champion, Sarah; Easterling, David; Terrando, A; Sun, L.; Stewart, Brooke C. (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017)

2014-2016 El Niño Assessment Report: An Overview of the Impacts of the 2014-16 El Niño on the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) - Rupic, Michael; Wetzell, Lauren; Marra, John J.; Salwani, Seema (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2018)

Projections of 21st century climate of the Columbia River Basin - Rupp, David E.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Mote, Philip W. (Climate Dynamics, 2017)
Simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 provide projections of 21st century climate in the Columbia River Basin under scenarios of anthropogenic activity given by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The multi-model ensemble 30-year mean annual temperature increases by 2.8 °C (5.0 °C) by late 21st century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) over the 1979–1990 baseline, with 18% (24%) more warming in summer. By late 21st century, annual precipitation increases by 5% (8%), with an 8% (14%) winter increase and a 4% (10%) summer decrease, but because some models project changes of opposite sign, confidence in these sign changes is lower than those for temperature. Four questions about temperature and precipitation changes were addressed: (1) How and why do climate projections vary seasonally? (2) Is interannual variability in seasonal temperature and precipitation projected to change? (3) What explains the large inter-model spread in the projections? (4) Do projected changes in climate depend on model skill? Changes in precipitation and temperature vary seasonally as a result of changes in large-scale circulation and regional surface energy budget, respectively. Interannual temperature variability decreases slightly during the cool seasons and increases in summer, while interannual precipitation variability increases in all seasons. The magnitude of regional warming is linked to models’ global climate sensitivity, whereas internal variability dominates the inter-model spread of precipitation changes. Lastly, GCMs that better reproduce historical climate tend to project greater warming and larger precipitation increases, though these results depend on the evaluation method.

Did human influence on climate make the 2011 Texas drought more probable? [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective”] - Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P. W.; Massey, N.; Rye, C. J.; Jones, R.; Allen, M. R. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2012)

Poverty, Climate Change and Health in Pacific Island Countries: Issues to Consider in Discussion, Debate and Policy Development - Russell, Lesley (Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of Sydney, 2011)

Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world - Russo, Simone; Dosio, Alessandro; Graversen, Rune G.; Sillmann, Jana; Carrao, Hugo; Dunbar, Martha B.; Singleton, Andrew; Montagna, Paolo; Barbola, Paulo; Vogt, Jürgen V. (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2014)
Keywords: climate indices climate extremes heat waves global models 1626 Global climate models 1610 Atmosphere 1616 Climate variability 4313 Extreme events 4318 Statistical analysis

Depletion and response of deep groundwater to climate-induced pumping variability - Russo, Tess A.; Lall, Upmanu (Nature Geoscience, 2017)
Groundwater constitutes a critical component of our water resources. Widespread groundwater level declines have occurred in the USA over recent decades, including in regions not typically considered water stressed, such as areas of the Northwest and mid-Atlantic Coast. This loss of water storage reflects extraction rates that exceed natural recharge and capture. Here, we explore recent changes in the groundwater levels of deep aquifers from wells across the USA, and their relation to indices of interannual to decadal climate variability and to annual precipitation. We show that groundwater level changes correspond to selected global climate variations. Although climate-induced variations of deep aquifer natural recharge are expected to have multi-year time lags, we find that deep groundwater levels respond to climate over timescales of less than one year. In irrigated areas, the annual response to local precipitation in the deepest wells may reflect climate-induced pumping variability. An understanding of how the human response to drought through pumping leads to deep groundwater changes is critical to manage the impacts of interannual to decadal and longer climate variability on the nation[rsquor]s water resources.

Rust to Green New York Action Research Initiative [web site] - Rust2Green (Cornell University, R2G New York Action Research Initiative, 2017)

Changing Climate, Changing Forests: The Impacts of Climate Change on Forests of the Northeastern United States and Eastern Canada - Rustad, Lindsey; Campbell, John; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Huntington, Thomas; Lambert, Kathy Fallon; Mohan, Jacqueline; Rodenhouse, Nicholas (USDA, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 2012)

Impacts of organic matter amendments on carbon and nitrogen dynamics in grassland soils - Ryals, Rebecca; Kaiser, Michael; Torn, Margaret S.; Berhe, Asmeret Asefaw; Silver, Whendee L. (Soil Biology and Biochemistry, 2014)

Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change - Ryan, Sadie J.; McNally, Amy; Johnson, Leah R.; Mordecai, Erin A.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Paaijmans, Krijn; Lafferty, Kevin D. (Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, 2015)

Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States - Ryberg, Karen R.; Lin, Wei; Vecchia, Aldo V. (Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2014)
Large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present. The attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest. Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff. Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes. A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver. Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. A portion of the unexplained variability likely stems from land-use change.

Enhanced nutrient supply to the California Current Ecosystem with global warming and increased stratification in an earth system model - Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Dunne, John P. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2010)
Keywords: California Current climate change Earth system model nitrate oxygen primary productivity 0404 Anoxic and hypoxic environments 1622 Earth system modeling 4805 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling 4815 Ecosystems, structure, dynamics, and modeling 4845 Nutrients and nutrient cycling

A measured look at ocean chlorophyll trends - Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Dunne, John P. (Nature, 2011)

Understanding the sources of Caribbean precipitation biases in CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations - Ryu, Jung-Hee; Hayhoe, Katharine (Climate Dynamics, 2014)
Keywords: Caribbean precipitation North Atlantic subtropical high Caribbean low-level jet Global climate models Large-scale dynamics

Observed and CMIP5 modeled influence of large-scale circulation on summer precipitation and drought in the South-Central United States - Ryu, Jung-Hee; Hayhoe, Katharine (Climate Dynamics, 2017)
Annual precipitation in the largely agricultural South-Central United States is characterized by a primary wet season in May and June, a mid-summer dry period in July and August, and a second precipitation peak in September and October. Of the 22 CMIP5 global climate models with sufficient output available, 16 are able to reproduce this bimodal distribution (we refer to these as “BM” models), while 6 have trouble simulating the mid-summer dry period, instead producing an extended wet season (“EW” models). In BM models, the timing and amplitude of the mid-summer westward extension of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) are realistic, while the magnitude of the Great Plains Lower Level Jet (GPLLJ) tends to be overestimated, particularly in July. In EW models, temporal variations and geophysical locations of the NASH and GPLLJ appear reasonable compared to reanalysis but their magnitudes are too weak to suppress mid-summer precipitation. During warm-season droughts, however, both groups of models reproduce the observed tendency towards a stronger NASH that remains over the region through September, and an intensification and northward extension of the GPLLJ. Similarly, future simulations from both model groups under a +1 to +3 °C transient increase in global mean temperature show decreases in summer precipitation concurrent with an enhanced NASH and an intensified GPLLJ, though models differ regarding the months in which these decreases are projected to occur: early summer in the BM models, and late summer in the EW models. Overall, these results suggest that projected future decreases in summer precipitation over the South-Central region appear to be closely related to anomalous patterns of large-scale circulation already observed and modeled during historical dry years, patterns that are consistently reproduced by CMIP5 models.

Ecological consequences of mountain pine beetle outbreaks for wildlife in western North American Forests - Saab, Victoria A.; Latif, Quresh S.; Rowland, Mary M.; Johnson, Tracey N.; Chalfoun, Anna D.; Buskirk, Steven W.; Heyward, Joslin E.; Dresser, Matthew A. (Forest Science, 2014)
Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) (MPB) outbreaks are increasingly prevalent in western North America, causing considerable ecological change in pine (Pinus spp.) forests with important implications for wildlife. We reviewed studies examining wildlife responses to MPB outbreaks and postoutbreak salvage logging to inform forest management and guide future research. Our review included 16 studies describing MPB outbreak relationships with 89 bird species and 6 studies describing relationships with 11 mammalian species, but no studies of reptiles or amphibians. We included studies that compared wildlife response metrics temporally (before versus after the outbreak) and spatially (across sites that varied in severity of outbreak) in relation to beetle outbreaks. Outbreaks ranged in size from 20,600 to ≥107 ha and studies occurred 1–30 years after the peak MPB outbreak, but most studies were conducted over the short-term (i.e., ≤6 years after the peak of MPB-induced tree mortality). Birds were the only taxa studied frequently; however, high variability existed among those studies to allow many inferences, although some patterns were evident. Avian studies concluded that cavity-nesting species responded more favorably to beetle-killed forests than species with open-cup nests, and species nesting in the shrub layer favored outbreak forests compared with ground and open-cup canopy nesters that generally showed mixed relationships. Bark-drilling species as a group clearly demonstrated a positive short-term association with MPB epidemics compared with that of other foraging assemblages. Cavity-nesting birds that do not consume bark beetles (i.e., secondary cavity-nesting species and nonbark-drilling woodpeckers) also exhibited some positive responses to MPB outbreaks, although not as pronounced or consistent as those of bark-drilling woodpeckers. Mammalian responses to MPB outbreaks were mixed. Studies consistently reported negative effects of MPB outbreaks on red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). However, there is evidence that red squirrels can persist after an outbreak under some conditions, e.g., when nonhost tree species are present. For small mammal species associated with forest understories, responses may be most pronounced during the postepidemic period (>6 years after the peak of beetle-induced tree mortality) when snags fall to produce coarse woody debris. Postoutbreak salvage logging studies (n = 6) reported results that lacked consensus. Postoutbreak salvage logging may have an impact on fewer wildlife species than postfire salvage logging, probably because only host-specific tree species are removed after beetle outbreaks.
10.5849/forsci.13-022

A self-consistent method to assess air quality co-benefits from U.S. climate policies - Saari, Rebecca K.; Selin, Noelle E.; Rausch, Sebastian; Thompson, Tammy M. (Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 2015)

Enhanced warming of the northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change - Saba, Vincent S.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Anderson, Whit G.; Winton, Michael; Alexander, Michael A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Rosati, Anthony; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong (Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 2016)
Keywords: Northwest Atlantic Ocean Climate Change Gulf Stream U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf High-Resolution Global Climate Model Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 4215 Climate and interannual variability 4203 Analytical modeling and laboratory experiments 4219 Continental shelf and slope processes 4512 Currents 4562 Topographic/bathymetric interactions

The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 - Sabine, Christopher L.; Feely, Richard A.; Gruber, Nicolas; Key, Robert M.; Lee, Kitack; Bullister, John L.; Wanninkhof, Rik; Wong, C. S.; Wallace, Douglas W. R.; Tilbrook, Bronte; Millero, Frank J.; Peng, Tsung-Hung; et al. (Science, 2004)
Using inorganic carbon measurements from an international survey effort in the 1990s and a tracer-based separation technique, we estimate a global oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink for the period from 1800 to 1994 of 118 ± 19 petagrams of carbon. The oceanic sink accounts for ∼48% of the total fossil-fuel and cement-manufacturing emissions, implying that the terrestrial biosphere was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere of about 39 ± 28 petagrams of carbon for this period. The current fraction of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions stored in the ocean appears to be about one-third of the long-term potential.

Particulate matter–induced health effects: Who is susceptible? - Sacks, Jason D.; Stanek, Lindsay Wichers; Luben, Thomas J.; Johns, Douglas O.; Buckley, Barbara J.; Brown, James S.; Ross, Mary (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2011)
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Effects of global irrigation on the near-surface climate - Sacks, William J; Cook, Benjamin I; Buenning, Nikolaus; Levis, Samuel; Helkowski, Joseph H (Climate Dynamics, 2009)

Are aggregation-fisheries sustainable? Reef fish fisheries as a case study - Sadovy, Yvonne; Domeier, Michael (Coral Reefs, 2005)
Reef fish spawning aggregations are attractive and often lucrative to fish but particularly vulnerable to fishing, with many cases of declines or extirpations. While awareness of the risks of aggregation exploitation has grown substantially in the tropical western Atlantic in the last decade, the phenomenon of aggregation-spawning is little known in the vast Indo-Pacific region where few aggregations are managed or monitored, and are rarely considered in marine-protected area designations. Even in the tropical western Atlantic and Caribbean, marine-protected area planning, until recently, did not typically consider spawning aggregations. Available data and analyses of aggregation-fisheries and aggregating species strongly suggest that: (1) the majority of known aggregations that are exploited are yielding declining landings; (2) aggregating species show greatest overall declines in local fisheries when their aggregations are also exploited; (3) from an economic perspective, aggregation fishing may yield lower prices for fish, or aggregations may be more valuable unexploited, as a source of fish for local fisheries or as tourist attractions; (4) hyperstability can mask declines in aggregation-fisheries, based on fishery-dependent data; (5) monitoring of aggregation catches by either fishery-dependent or fishery-independent means is deceptively challenging. There are also possible ecosystem-level consequences of reducing or eliminating spawning aggregations. We conclude that aggregation-fisheries are likely to be sustainable only for limited subsistence-level use, that the precautionary principle should be more widely applied in aggregation-fisheries and that, despite growing interest in aggregations over the last decade, few of the key biological questions necessary for effective management have been, or are being, addressed.

Predicting landscape sensitivity to present and future floods in the Pacific Northwest, USA - Safeeq, Mohammad; Grant, Gordon E.; Lewis, Sarah L.; Staab, Brian (Hydrological Processes, 2015)
Floods are the most frequent natural disaster, causing more loss of life and property than any other in the USA. Floods also strongly influence the structure and function of watersheds, stream channels, and aquatic ecosystems. The Pacific Northwest is particularly vulnerable to climatically driven changes in flood frequency and magnitude, because snowpacks that strongly influence flood generation are near the freezing point and thus sensitive to small changes in temperature. To improve predictions of future flooding potential and inform strategies to adapt to these changes, we mapped the sensitivity of landscapes to changes in peak flows due to climate warming across Oregon and Washington. We first developed principal component-based models for predicting peak flows across a range of recurrence intervals (2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-years) based on historical instantaneous peak flow data from 1000 gauged watersheds in Oregon and Washington. Key predictors of peak flows included drainage area and principal component scores for climate, land cover, soil, and topographic metrics. We then used these regression models to predict future peak flows by perturbing the climate variables based on future climate projections (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s) for the A1B emission scenario. For each recurrence interval, peak flow sensitivities were computed as the ratio of future to current peak flow magnitudes. Our analysis suggests that temperature-induced changes in snowpack dynamics will result in large (>30–40%) increases in peak flow magnitude in some areas, principally the Cascades, Olympics, and Blue Mountains and parts of the western edge of the Rocky Mountains. Flood generation processes in lower elevation areas are less likely to be affected, but some of these areas may be impacted by floodwaters from upstream. These results can assist land, water, and infrastructure managers in identifying watersheds and resources that are particularly vulnerable to increased peak flows and developing plans to increase their resilience. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparing large-scale hydrological model predictions with observed streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: Effects of climate and groundwater - Safeeq, Mohammad; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Grant, Gordon E.; Arismendi, Ivan; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2014)
Assessing uncertainties in hydrologic models can improve accuracy in predicting future streamflow. Here, simulated streamflows using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at coarse (°) and fine (°) spatial resolutions were evaluated against observed streamflows from 217 watersheds. In particular, the adequacy of VIC simulations in groundwater- versus runoff-dominated watersheds using a range of flow metrics relevant for water supply and aquatic habitat was examined. These flow metrics were 1) total annual streamflow; 2) total fall, winter, spring, and summer season streamflows; and 3) 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th flow percentiles. The effect of climate on model performance was also evaluated by comparing the observed and simulated streamflow sensitivities to temperature and precipitation. Model performance was evaluated using four quantitative statistics: nonparametric rank correlation ρ, normalized Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency NNSE, root-mean-square error RMSE, and percent bias PBIAS. The VIC model captured the sensitivity of streamflow for temperature better than for precipitation and was in poor agreement with the corresponding temperature and precipitation sensitivities derived from observed streamflow. The model was able to capture the hydrologic behavior of the study watersheds with reasonable accuracy. Both total streamflow and flow percentiles, however, are subject to strong systematic model bias. For example, summer streamflows were underpredicted (PBIAS = −13%) in groundwater-dominated watersheds and overpredicted (PBIAS = 48%) in runoff-dominated watersheds. Similarly, the 5th flow percentile was underpredicted (PBIAS = −51%) in groundwater-dominated watersheds and overpredicted (PBIAS = 19%) in runoff-dominated watersheds. These results provide a foundation for improving model parameterization and calibration in ungauged basins.
Keywords: Hydrologic models,Model errors,Model evaluation/performance

SAGE in action: Living shoreline project in the City of Norfolk - SAGE (The SAGE Report, 2016)

Economic Contributions of the Yellowstone River to Park County, Montana - Sage, Jeremy L. (Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research, 2016)

Sea level rise and South Florida coastal forests - Saha, Amartya K.; Saha, Sonali; Sadle, Jimi; Jiang, Jiang; Ross, Michael S.; Price, René M.; Sternberg, Leonel S. L. O.; Wendelberger, Kristie S. (Climatic Change, 2011)
Coastal ecosystems lie at the forefront of sea level rise. We posit that before the onset of actual inundation, sea level rise will influence the species composition of coastal hardwood hammocks and buttonwood (Conocarpus erectus L.) forests of the Everglades National Park based on tolerance to drought and salinity. Precipitation is the major water source in coastal hammocks and is stored in the soil vadose zone, but vadose water will diminish with the rising water table as a consequence of sea level rise, thereby subjecting plants to salt water stress. A model is used to demonstrate that the constraining effect of salinity on transpiration limits the distribution of freshwater-dependent communities. Field data collected in hardwood hammocks and coastal buttonwood forests over 11 years show that halophytes have replaced glycophytes. We establish that sea level rise threatens 21 rare coastal species in Everglades National Park and estimate the relative risk to each species using basic life history and population traits. We review salinity conditions in the estuarine region over 1999–2009 and associate wide variability in the extent of the annual seawater intrusion to variation in freshwater inflows and precipitation. We also examine species composition in coastal and inland hammocks in connection with distance from the coast, depth to water table, and groundwater salinity. Though this study focuses on coastal forests and rare species of South Florida, it has implications for coastal forests threatened by saltwater intrusion across the globe.

Mortality displacement as a function of heat event strength in 7 US cities - Saha, Michael V.; Davis, Robert E.; Hondula, David M. (American Journal of Epidemiology, 2014)
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Spatial variation in hyperthermia emergency department visits among those with employer-based insurance in the United States – a case-crossover analysis - Saha, Shubhayu; Brock, John W.; Vaidyanathan, Ambarish; Easterling, David R.; Luber, George (Environmental Health, 2015)
Predictions of intense heat waves across the United States will lead to localized health impacts, most of which are preventable. There is a need to better understand the spatial variation in the morbidity impacts associated with extreme heat across the country to prevent such adverse health outcomes.

Risks of summertime extreme thermal conditions in buildings as a result of climate change and exacerbation of urban heat islands - Sailor, David J. (Building and Environment, 2014)
Keywords: Urban heat islands Heat waves Climate change Infiltration Thermal comfort

Frost Survival of Plants: Responses and Adaptation to Freezing Stress - Sakai, Akira; Larcher, Walter (1987)

Kiavallakkikput Agviq (Into the whaling cycle): Cetaceousness and climate change among the Iñupiat of Arctic Alaska - Sakakibara, Chie (Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2010)

A standard lexicon for biodiversity conservation: Unified classifications of threats and actions - Salafsky, Nick; Salzer, Daniel; Stattersfield, Alison J.; Hilton‐Taylor, Craig; Neugarten, Rachel; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Collen, Ben; Cox, Neil; Master, Lawrence L.; O'Connor, Sheila; Wilkie, David (Conservation Biology, 2008)
An essential foundation of any science is a standard lexicon. Any given conservation project can be described in terms of the biodiversity targets, direct threats, contributing factors at the project site, and the conservation actions that the project team is employing to change the situation. These common elements can be linked in a causal chain, which represents a theory of change about how the conservation actions are intended to bring about desired project outcomes. If project teams want to describe and share their work and learn from one another, they need a standard and precise lexicon to specifically describe each node along this chain. To date, there have been several independent efforts to develop standard classifications for the direct threats that affect biodiversity and the conservation actions required to counteract these threats. Recognizing that it is far more effective to have only one accepted global scheme, we merged these separate efforts into unified classifications of threats and actions, which we present here. Each classification is a hierarchical listing of terms and associated definitions. The classifications are comprehensive and exclusive at the upper levels of the hierarchy, expandable at the lower levels, and simple, consistent, and scalable at all levels. We tested these classifications by applying them post hoc to 1191 threatened bird species and 737 conservation projects. Almost all threats and actions could be assigned to the new classification systems, save for some cases lacking detailed information. Furthermore, the new classification systems provided an improved way of analyzing and comparing information across projects when compared with earlier systems. We believe that widespread adoption of these classifications will help practitioners more systematically identify threats and appropriate actions, managers to more efficiently set priorities and allocate resources, and most important, facilitate cross‐project learning and the development of a systematic science of conservation.

Revisiting the Concepts of Return Period and Risk for Nonstationary Hydrologic Extreme Events - Salas, Jose D.; Obeysekera, Jayantha (Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2014)
Current practice using probabilistic methods applied for designing hydraulic structures generally assume that extreme events are stationary. However, many studies in the past decades have shown that hydrological records exhibit some type of nonstationarity such as trends and shifts. Human intervention in river basins (e.g., urbanization), the effect of low-frequency climatic variability (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation), and climate change due to increased greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere have been suggested to be the leading causes of changes in the hydrologic cycle of river basins in addition to changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme floods and extreme sea levels. To tackle nonstationarity in hydrologic extremes, several approaches have been proposed in the literature such as frequency analysis, in which the parameters of a given model vary in accordance with time. The aim of this paper is to show that some basic concepts and methods used in designing flood-related hydraulic structures assuming a stationary world can be extended into a nonstationary framework. In particular, the concepts of return period and risk are formulated by extending the geometric distribution to allow for changing exceeding probabilities over time. Building on previous developments suggested in the statistical and climate change literature, the writers present a simple and unified framework to estimate the return period and risk for nonstationary hydrologic events along with examples and applications so that it can be accessible to a broad audience in the field. The applications demonstrate that the return period and risk estimates for nonstationary situations can be quite different than those corresponding to stationary conditions. They also suggest that the nonstationary analysis can be helpful in making an appropriate assessment of the risk of a hydraulic structure during the planned project-life.

Estimates of twenty-first-century flood risk in the Pacific Northwest based on regional climate model simulations - Salathé Jr., Eric P.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Mass, Clifford F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Stumbaugh, Matt; Steed, Richard (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2014)
Results from a regional climate model simulation show substantial increases in future flood risk (2040–69) in many Pacific Northwest river basins in the early fall. Two primary causes are identified: 1) more extreme and earlier storms and 2) warming temperatures that shift precipitation from snow to rain dominance over regional terrain. The simulations also show a wide range of uncertainty among different basins stemming from localized storm characteristics. While previous research using statistical downscaling suggests that many areas in the Pacific Northwest are likely to experience substantial increases in flooding in response to global climate change, these initial estimates do not adequately represent the effects of changes in heavy precipitation. Unlike statistical downscaling techniques applied to global climate model scenarios, the regional model provides an explicit, physically based simulation of the seasonality, size, location, and intensity of historical and future extreme storms, including atmospheric rivers. This paper presents climate projections from the ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) global climate model dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model implemented at 12-km resolution for the period 1970–2069. The resulting daily precipitation and temperature data are bias corrected and used as input to a physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. From the daily time step simulations of streamflow produced by the hydrologic model, probability distributions are fit to the extreme events extracted from each water year and flood statistics for various return intervals are estimated.
Keywords: Climate change,Mesoscale systems,Regional models,Flood events,Societal impacts

Land use and land cover change impacts on the regional climate of non-Amazonian South America: A review - Salazar, Alvaro; Baldi, Germán; Hirota, Marina; Syktus, Jozef; McAlpine, Clive (Global and Planetary Change, 2015)

The role of nature-based infrastructure (NBI) in coastal resiliency planning: A literature review - Saleh, F.; Weinstein, M. P. (Journal of Environmental Management, 2016)
The use of nature-based infrastructure (NBI) has attracted increasing attention in the context of protection against coastal flooding. This review is focused on NBI approaches to improve coastal resilience in the face of extreme storm events, including hurricanes. We not only consider the role of NBI as a measure to protect people and property but also in the context of other ecological goods and services provided by tidal wetlands including production of fish and shellfish. Although the results of many studies suggest that populated areas protected by coastal marshes were less likely to experience damage when exposed to the full force of storm surge, it was absolutely critical to place the role of coastal wetlands into perspective by noting that while tidal marshes can reduce wave energy from low-to-moderate-energy storms, their capacity to substantially reduce storm surge remains poorly quantified. Moreover, although tidal marshes can reduce storm surge from fast moving storms, very large expanses of habitat are needed to be most effective, and for most urban settings, there is insufficient space to rely on nature based risk reduction strategies alone. The success of a given NBI method is also context dependent on local conditions, with,potentially confounding influences from substrate characteristics, topography, near shore bathymetry, distance from the shore and other physical factors and human drivers such as development patterns. Furthermore, it is important to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of newly developed NBI projects through rigorous evaluations and characterize the local specificities of the particular built and natural environments surrounding these coastal areas. In order for the relevant science to better inform policy, and assist in land-use challenges, scientists must clearly state the likelihood of success in a particular circumstance and set of conditions. We conclude that "caution is advised" before selecting a particular NBI method as there is no "one size fits all" solution to address site specific conditions. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Saleh, Firas Weinstein, Michael P. 3
Keywords: Adaptation Coastal nature-based solutions

Climate change and conflict: Making sense of disparate findings - Salehyan, Idean (Political Geography, 2014)
Keywords: Climate change Conflict Measurement Weather War

Climate shocks and political violence - Salehyan, Idean; Hendrix, Cullen S. (Global Environmental Change, 2014)
Keywords: Climate change Conflict Environmental security Political violence Drought

Coastal acidification by rivers: A threat to shellfish? - Salisbury, Joseph; Green, Mark; Hunt, Chris; Campbell, Janet (Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 2008)
Keywords: 4825 Geochemistry 4858 Population dynamics and ecology

Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America - Sallenger, Asbury H.; Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A. (Nature Climate Change, 2012)

Preseason Report I: Stock Abundance Analysis and Environmental Assessment Part 1 for 2017 Ocean Salmon Fishery Regulations. Regulation Identifier Number 0648-BG59 - Salmon Technical Team (STT) (Pacific Fishery Management Council, 2017)

Review of 2016 Ocean Salmon Fisheries. Stock Assessment and Fishery Evaluation (SAFE) document - Salmon Technical Team (STT) (Pacific Fishery Management Council, 2017)

Review of 2017 Ocean Salmon Fisheries. Stock Assessment and Fishery Evaluation (SAFE) document - Salmon Technical Team (STT) (Pacific Fishery Management Council, 2018)

Challenges in quantifying Pliocene terrestrial warming revealed by data-model discord - Salzmann, Ulrich; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Voss, Jochen; Hill, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Bragg, Frances J.; Chandler, Mark A.; Contoux, Camille; Dowsett, Harry J.; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2013)

Engaging marina and harbor operators in climate adaptation - Samples, Amy (Michigan Journal of Sustainability, 2015)