Indicators of climate change and social vulnerability in fishing dependent communities along the Eastern and Gulf Coasts of the United States - Colburn, Lisa L.; Jepson, Michael; Weng, Changhua; Seara, Tarsila; Weiss, Jeremy; Hare, Jonathan A. (Marine Policy, 2016)
Keywords: Fishing communities Social vulnerability Climate change Indicators

Negotiating Tribal Water Rights: Fullfilling Promises in the Arid West - Colby, Bonnie G.; Thorson, John E.; Britton, Sarah (University of Arizona Press, 2005)

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction - Cole, Kenneth L.; Ironside, Kirsten; Eischeid, Jon; Garfin, Gregg; Duffy, Phillip B.; Toney, Chris (Ecological Applications, 2011)
Keywords: climate change climate effects modeling extinct seed vectors Joshua tree Mohave Desert plant migration Yucca brevifolia

Household Food Security in the United States in 2015 - Coleman-Jensen, Alisha; Rabbitt, Matthew P.; Gregory, Christian A.; Singh, Anita (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 2016)

Climate Change Vulnerabilities in the Coastal Mid-Atlantic Region - Colgan, Charles S.; Calil, Juliano; Kite-Powell, Hauke; Jin, Di; Hoagland, Porter (Center for the Blue Economy of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and the Marine Policy Center of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2018)

Historical evaluation and future prediction of eastern North American and western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models during the cool season - Colle, Brian A.; Zhang, Zhenhai; Lombardo, Kelly A.; Chang, Edmund; Liu, Ping; Zhang, Minghua (Journal of Climate, 2013)
Extratropical cyclone track density, genesis frequency, deepening rate, and maximum intensity distributions over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic were analyzed for 15 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical period (1979–2004) and three future periods (2009–38, 2039–68, and 2069–98). The cyclones were identified using an automated tracking algorithm applied to sea level pressure every 6 h. The CMIP5 results for the historical period were evaluated using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The CMIP5 models were ranked given their track density, intensity, and overall performance for the historical period. It was found that six of the top seven CMIP5 models with the highest spatial resolution were ranked the best overall. These models had less underprediction of cyclone track density, more realistic distribution of intense cyclones along the U.S. East Coast, and more realistic cyclogenesis and deepening rates. The best seven models were used to determine projected future changes in cyclones, which included a 10%–30% decrease in cyclone track density and weakening of cyclones over the western Atlantic storm track, while in contrast there is a 10%–20% increase in cyclone track density over the eastern United States, including 10%–40% more intense (<980 hPa) cyclones and 20%–40% more rapid deepening rates just inland of the U.S. East Coast. Some of the reasons for these CMIP5 model differences were explored for the selected models based on model generated Eady growth rate, upper-level jet, surface baroclinicity, and precipitation.
Keywords: Extratropical cyclones,Climate models,Model comparison,Model evaluation/performance

Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America - Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bunnell, David B.; Murray, Michael W.; Kao, Yu-Chun; Feiner, Zachary S.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Höök, Tomas O.; Ludsin, Stuart A. (Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 2017)
The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.

Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility - Collins, M.; Knutti, R.; Arblaster, J.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Fichefet, T.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gao, X.; Gutowski, W.J.; Johns, T.; Krinner, G.; Shongwe, M.; Tebaldi, C.; et al. (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

Annual floods in New England (USA) and Atlantic Canada: Synoptic climatology and generating mechanisms - Collins, Mathias J.; Kirk, Johnathan P.; Pettit, Joshua; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; McCown, M. Sam; Peterson, Thomas C.; Means, Tiffany N.; Zhang, Xuebin (Physical Geography, 2014)

Extreme loss of diversity of riverine dragonflies in the northeastern US is predicted in the face of climate change - Collins, S.D.; McIntyre, N.E. (Bulletin of American Odonatology, 2017)
Access restricted for 3 years: https://www.odonatacentral.org/index.php/IssueAction.get/issue_id/573/volume_id/191

Salmon and the adaptive capacity of Nimiipuu (Nez Perce) culture to cope with change - Colombi, Benedict J. (American Indian Quarterly, 2012)

Insights on adaptive capacity: Three indigenous Pacific Northwest historical narratives - Colombi, Benedict J.; Smith, Courtland L. (Journal of Northwest Anthropology, 2014)

Sustainable Utilities in Rural Alaska: Effective Management, Maintenance and Operation of Electric, Water, Sewer, Bulk Fuel, Solid Waste - Colt, S.; Goldsmith, S.; Wiita, A. (Institute for Social and Economic Research, 2003)

Floods collide with sprawl in Louisiana’s Amite River Basin - Colten, Craig (Focus on Geography, 2017)

Social justice and mobility in coastal Louisiana, USA - Colten, Craig E.; Simms, Jessica R. Z.; Grismore, Audrey A.; Hemmerling, Scott A. (Regional Environmental Change, 2018)
Louisiana faces extensive coastal land loss which threatens the livelihoods of marginalized populations. These groups have endured extreme disruptive events in the past and have survived in the region by relying on several resilient practices, including mobility. Facing environmental changes that will be wrought by deliberate coastal restoration programs, elderly residents are resisting migration while younger residents continue a decades-long inland migration. Interviews and historical records illustrate a complex intersection of resilient practices and environmental migration. The process underway conflicts to some extent with prevailing concepts in environmental migration, most notably deviating from established migration patterns. In terms of social justice, selective out-migration of younger adults leaves a more vulnerable population behind, but also provides a supplementary source of income and social links to inland locales. Organized resistance to restoration projects represents a social justice response to programs that threaten the resource-based livelihoods of coastal residents while offering protection to safer inland urban residents.

Vulnerabilidad de las cadenas de suministros, el cambio climático y el desarrollo de estrategias de adaptación: El caso de las cadenas de suministros de alimento de Puerto Rico - Comas Pagan, Myrna (International Business Program, 2009)

The Impact of the 2011 Drought and Beyond - Combs, Susan (Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 2012)

Response to coral reef calcification: Carbonate, bicarbonate and proton flux under conditions of increasing ocean acidification - Comeau, S.; Carpenter, R. C.; Edmunds, P. J. (Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2013)

Mangrove expansion in the Gulf of Mexico with climate change: Implications for wetland health and resistance to rising sea levels - Comeaux, Rebecca S.; Allison, Mead A.; Bianchi, Thomas S. (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2012)
Keywords: mangrove swamps wetlands coastal erosion climate change sea level

Disaster recovery and community renewal: Housing approaches - Comerio, Mary C. (Coming Home after Disaster: Multiple Dimensions of Housing Recovery, 2017)

Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space - Comiso, Josefino C.; Hall, Dorothy K. (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2014)

Equity and Environment Agenda - Community Partners Steering Committee (Office of Sustainability & Environment, 2016)

Storm Hardening and Resiliency Collaborative Report - Con Edison (Consolidated Edison Company, 2013)

Con Edison Close To Completing $1 Billion In Post-Sandy Storm Protections - Con Edison (Consolidated Edison Company, 2016)

Northern Great Plains - Conant, R.T.; Kluck, D.; Anderson, M.; Badger, A.; Boustead, B.M.; Derner, J.; Farris, L.; Hayes, M.; Livneh, B.; McNeeley, S.; Peck, D.; Shulski, M.; et al. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Climate Change Strategic Plan: Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes - Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes (2013)

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment - Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (CTUIR-DOSE, 2015)

Climate and Health Perspectives: Voices of the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs [web videos] - Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs (2017)

Global land cover mapping: A review and uncertainty analysis - Congalton, Russell G.; Gu, Jianyu; Yadav, Kamini; Thenkabail, Prasad; Ozdogan, Mutlu (Remote Sensing, 2014)

Hypoxia is increasing in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea - Conley, Daniel J.; Carstensen, Jacob; Aigars, Juris; Axe, Philip; Bonsdorff, Erik; Eremina, Tatjana; Haahti, Britt-Marie; Humborg, Christoph; Jonsson, Per; Kotta, Jonne; Lännegren, Christer; Larsson, Ulf; et al. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2011)

Arctic Economics in the 21st Century: The Benefits and Costs of Cold - Conley, Heather A.; Pumphrey, David L.; Toland, Terence M.; David, Mihaela (Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2013)
ISBN: 978-1-4422-2487-2 (pb) 978-1-4422-2488-9 (eBook)

Preventing cold-related morbidity and mortality in a changing climate - Conlon, Kathryn C.; Rajkovich, Nicholas B.; White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Larsen, Larissa; O’Neill, Marie S. (Maturitas, 2011)
Ch7

Ecology of Tidal Freshwater Forested Wetlands of the Southeastern United States - Conner, William H.; Doyle, Thomas W.; Krauss, Ken W. (Springer, 2007)

Hampton Roads, Virginia and the military’s battle against sea level rise - Connolly, Matt ([Center for Climate and Security] Briefer, 2015)

The Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory: The First 100 Years, 1885–1985 - Conover, John H. (American Meteorological Society, 1990)

Foresters' perceptions of the frequency, cost, and rationale for seasonal timber harvesting restrictions in Wisconsin - Conrad IV, Joseph L.; Demchik, Michael C.; Vokoun, Melinda M.; Evans, Alexander M.; Lynch, Michael P. (Forest Science, 2017)

Climate change and migration in the Pacific: Options for Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands - Constable, Amy Louise (Regional Environmental Change, 2017)
As climate change impacts, particularly rising sea levels, manifest there is a high probability that some island populations will be faced with the need to relocate. This article discusses several discourses around migration options for people affected by climate change impacts in small island developing states. Options currently available to citizens of the Pacific nations of Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are explored, including the perspective that high levels of customary land tenure in the Pacific are a barrier to permanent movement to other Pacific countries. Migration to Pacific Rim countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the USA is complicated by strict migration eligibility criteria, which often require proof of language abilities and income, and may restrict the number of accompanying dependants. The Compact of Free Association provides visa-free entry to the USA for citizens of the Marshall Islands, but the lack of financial assistance restricts eligibility to those with existing financial resources or family networks that can provide access to capital. The difficulty of directly attributing single weather/climate events to climate change hinders the formulation of a definition of climate change-related migration. This obstacle in turn hinders the establishment of effective visa categories and migration routes for what is likely to become a growing number of people in coming decades.

A longer vernal window: The role of winter coldness and snowpack in driving spring transitions and lags - Contosta, Alexandra R.; Adolph, Alden; Burchsted, Denise; Burakowski, Elizabeth; Green, Mark; Guerra, David; Albert, Mary; Dibb, Jack; Martin, Mary; McDowell, William H.; Routhier, Michael; Wake, Cameron; et al. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: climate change energy balance lag snow soil spring stream temperature transition

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains - Cook, Benjamin I.; Ault, Toby R.; Smerdon, Jason E. (Science Advances, 2015)
In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for benchmarking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium.

Forced and unforced variability of twentieth century North American droughts and pluvials - Cook, Benjamin I.; Cook, Edward R.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Seager, Richard; Miller, Ron L. (Climate Dynamics, 2011)
Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905–1917) and drought (1932–1939, 1948–1957, 1998–2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900–2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1–2), we are able to reproduce the 1948–1957 drought and 1905–1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1–2–3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998–2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932–1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932–1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998–2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932–1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

North American megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and simulations - Cook, Benjamin I.; Cook, Edward R.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Williams, A. Park; Coats, Sloan; Stahle, David W.; Díaz, José Villanueva (Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2016)
During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, suggesting they are not caused by the time history of volcanic or solar forcing. Instead, GCMs generate megadroughts through (1) internal atmospheric variability, (2) sea-surface temperatures, and (3) land surface and dust aerosol feedbacks. While no hypothesis has been definitively rejected, and no GCM has accurately reproduced all features (e.g., timing, duration, and extent) of any specific megadrought, their persistence suggests a role for processes that impart memory to the climate system (land surface and ocean dynamics). Over the 21st century, GCMs project an increase in the risk of megadrought occurrence through greenhouse gas forced reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. This drying is robust across models and multiple drought indicators, but major uncertainties still need to be resolved. These include the potential moderation of vegetation evaporative losses at higher atmospheric [CO2], variations in land surface model complexity, and decadal to multidecadal modes of natural climate variability that could delay or advance onset of aridification over the the next several decades. Because future droughts will arise from both natural variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate, improving our understanding of the natural drivers of persistent multidecadal megadroughts should be a major research priority. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:411–432. doi: 10.1002/wcc.394 This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Paleoclimate Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models

Amplification of the North American “Dust Bowl” drought through human-induced land degradation - Cook, Benjamin I.; Miller, Ron L.; Seager, Richard (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009)
The “Dust Bowl” drought of the 1930s was highly unusual for North America, deviating from the typical pattern forced by “La Nina” with the maximum drying in the central and northern Plains, warm temperature anomalies across almost the entire continent, and widespread dust storms. General circulation models (GCMs), forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the 1930s, produce a drought, but one that is centered in southwestern North America and without the warming centered in the middle of the continent. Here, we show that the inclusion of forcing from human land degradation during the period, in addition to the anomalous SSTs, is necessary to reproduce the anomalous features of the Dust Bowl drought. The degradation over the Great Plains is represented in the GCM as a reduction in vegetation cover and the addition of a soil dust aerosol source, both consequences of crop failure. As a result of land surface feedbacks, the simulation of the drought is much improved when the new dust aerosol and vegetation boundary conditions are included. Vegetation reductions explain the high temperature anomaly over the northern U.S., and the dust aerosols intensify the drought and move it northward of the purely ocean-forced drought pattern. When both factors are included in the model simulations, the precipitation and temperature anomalies are of similar magnitude and in a similar location compared with the observations. Human-induced land degradation is likely to have not only contributed to the dust storms of the 1930s but also amplified the drought, and these together turned a modest SST-forced drought into one of the worst environmental disasters the U.S. has experienced.
10.1073/pnas.0810200106

Global warming and 21st century drying - Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan (Climate Dynamics, 2014)
Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twenty-first century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman-Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of ≤−1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of ≤−1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

Hydrological variability and change - Cook, Edward R.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah; Seager, Richard; Shuman, Bryan N.; Webb, Robert S.; Williams, John W.; Woodhouse, Connie (Abrupt Climate Change. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2008)

Food insecurity is associated with adverse health outcomes among human infants and toddlers - Cook, John T.; Frank, Deborah A.; Berkowitz, Carol; Black, Maureen M.; Casey, Patrick H.; Cutts, Diana B.; Meyers, Alan F.; Zaldivar, Nieves; Skalicky, Anne; Levenson, Suzette; Heeren, Tim; Nord, Mark (Journal of Nutrition, 2004)
The U.S. Household Food Security Scale, developed with federal support for use in national surveys, is an effective research tool. This study uses these new measures to examine associations between food insecurity and health outcomes in young children. The purpose of this study was to determine whether household food insecurity is associated with adverse health outcomes in a sentinel population ages ≤ 36 mo. We conducted a multisite retrospective cohort study with cross-sectional surveys at urban medical centers in 5 states and Washington DC, August 1998–December 2001. Caregivers of 11,539 children ages ≤ 36 mo were interviewed at hospital clinics and emergency departments (ED) in central cities. Outcome measures included child’s health status, hospitalization history, whether child was admitted to hospital on day of ED visit (for subsample interviewed in EDs), and a composite growth-risk variable. In this sample, 21.4% of households were food insecure (6.8% with hunger). In a logistic regression, after adjusting for confounders, food-insecure children had odds of “fair or poor” health nearly twice as great [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.66–2.18], and odds of being hospitalized since birth almost a third larger (AOR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.16–1.48) than food-secure children. A dose-response relation appeared between fair/poor health status and severity of food insecurity. Effect modification occurred between Food Stamps and food insecurity; Food Stamps attenuated (but did not eliminate) associations between food insecurity and fair/poor health. Food insecurity is associated with health problems for young, low-income children. Ensuring food security may reduce health problems, including the need for hospitalizations.

Springtime intensification of the Great Plains low-level jet and midwest precipitation in GCM simulations of the twenty-first century - Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K.; Launer, Zachary S.; Patricola, Christina M. (Journal of Climate, 2008)
Simulations from 18 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs are analyzed to predict changes in the climatological Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) and Midwest U.S. hydrology resulting from greenhouse gas increases during the twenty-first century. To build confidence in the prediction, models are selected for analysis based on their twentieth-century simulations, and their simulations of the future are diagnosed to ensure that the response is reasonable. Confidence in the model projections is also bolstered by agreement among models, in a so-called multimodel ensemble, and by analogy with present-day interannual variability. The GCMs agree that the GPLLJ will be more intense in April, May, and June in the future. The selected models even agree on the reason for this intensification, namely, a westward extension and strengthening of the North Atlantic subtropical high (the Bermuda high) that occurs when greenhouse gas–induced warming over the continental United States exceeds that of the subtropical Atlantic in the spring. Accompanying the changes in the GPLLJ are springtime precipitation increases of 20%–40% in the upper Mississippi Valley, which are closely associated with intensified meridional moisture convergence by the jet, with decreases to the south, which results in reduced moist static stability in the region. The simulated differences in the Midwest circulation and hydrology in the spring for the twenty-first century are similar to the observed moisture balance and circulation anomalies for May and, especially, June of 1993, a year of devastating floods throughout the Mississippi Valley.
Keywords: Jet,Precipitation,North America,Coupled models

Framework for incorporating downscaled climate output into existing engineering methods: Application to precipitation frequency curves - Cook, Lauren M.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Samaras, Constantine (Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 2017)
To improve the resiliency of designs, particularly for long-lived infrastructure, current engineering practice must be updated to incorporate a range of future climate conditions that are likely to be different from the past. However, a considerable mismatch exists between climate model outputs and the data inputs needed for engineering designs. This paper provides a framework for incorporating climate trends into design standards and applications, including selecting the appropriate climate model source based on the intended application, understanding model performance and uncertainties, addressing differences in temporal and spatial scales, and interpreting results for engineering design. The framework is illustrated through an application to depth-duration-frequency curves, which are commonly used in stormwater design. A change factor method is used to update the curves in a case study of Pittsburgh. Extreme precipitation depth is expected to increase in the future for Pittsburgh for all return periods and durations examined, requiring revised standards and designs. Doubling the return period and using historical, stationary values may enable adequate design for short-duration storms; however, this method is shown to be insufficient to enable protective designs for longer-duration storms.

Water Risk Hotspots for Agriculture: The Case of the Southwest United States - Cooley, Heather; Cohen, Michael; Phurisamban, Rapichan; Gruère, Guillaume (OECD Publishing, 2016)

Anticipating ocean acidification’s economic consequences for commercial fisheries - Cooley, S. R.; Doney, S. C. (Environmental Research Letters, 2009)
Keywords: fisheries; Marine; ocean acidification

An integrated assessment model for helping the United States sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery plan ahead for ocean acidification and warming - Cooley, Sarah R.; Rheuban, Jennie E.; Hart, Deborah R.; Luu, Victoria; Glover, David M.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Doney, Scott C. (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed.

Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks - Cooper, Matthew G.; Nolin, Anne W.; Safeeq, Mohammad (Environmental Research Letters, 2016)
Record low snowpack conditions were observed at Snow Telemetry stations in the Cascades Mountains, USA during the winters of 2014 and 2015. We tested the hypothesis that these winters are analogs for the temperature sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks. In the Oregon Cascades, the 2014 and 2015 winter air temperature anomalies were approximately +2 °C and +4 °C above the climatological mean. We used a spatially distributed snowpack energy balance model to simulate the sensitivity of multiple snowpack metrics to a +2 °C and +4 °C warming and compared our modeled sensitivities to observed values during 2014 and 2015. We found that for each +1 °C warming, modeled basin-mean peak snow water equivalent (SWE) declined by 22%–30%, the date of peak SWE (DPS) advanced by 13 days, the duration of snow cover (DSC) shortened by 31–34 days, and the snow disappearance date (SDD) advanced by 22–25 days. Our hypothesis was not borne out by the observations except in the case of peak SWE; other snow metrics did not resemble predicted values based on modeled sensitivities and thus are not effective analogs of future temperature sensitivities. Rather than just temperature, it appears that the magnitude and phasing of winter precipitation events, such as large, late spring snowfall, controlled the DPS, SDD, and DSC.

Pollen and outdoor mold season update - Cooper, Stacy ([State of Alaska] Epidemiology Bulletin, 2017)

Relating coccidioidomycosis (valley fever) incidence to soil moisture conditions - Coopersmith, E. J.; Bell, J. E.; Benedict, K.; Shriber, J.; McCotter, O.; Cosh, M. H. (GeoHealth, 2017)
Keywords: coccidioidomycosis valley fever soil moisture machine learning modeling 1719 Hydrology 1866 Soil moisture 1894 Instruments and techniques: modeling 1984 Statistical methods: Descriptive 1914 Data mining

Ranching and multiyear droughts in Utah: Production impacts, risk perceptions, and changes in preparedness - Coppock, D. Layne (Rangeland Ecology & Management, 2011)
Keywords: adaptive management climate change policy range livestock risk management social-ecological systems

Ch. 29: Research needs for climate and global change assessments - Corell, Robert W.; Liverman, Diana; Dow, Kirstin; Ebi, Kristie L.; Kunkel, Kenneth; Mearns, Linda O.; Melillo, Jerry (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Promoting Human Security and Minimizing Conflict Associated with Forced-Migration in the Pacific Region - Corendea, Cosmin; Bello, Valeria; Bryar, Timothy (Pacific Policy Brief, 2015)
ISBN: 9789822020

The Coral Program's Watershed Management Activities [web site] - CoRIS (NOAA Coral Reef Information System (CoRIS), 2018)

Using social network analysis to assess communications and develop networking tools among climate change professionals across the Pacific Islands region - Corlew, Laura Kate; Keener, Victoria; Finucane, Melissa; Brewington, Laura; Nunn-Crichton, Rachel (Psychosocial Intervention, 2015)
Keywords: Vulnerability Adaptation networks policy

Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate - Cornford, S. L.; Martin, D. F.; Payne, A. J.; Ng, E. G.; Le Brocq, A. M.; Gladstone, R. M.; Edwards, T. L.; Shannon, S. R.; Agosta, C.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Hellmer, H. H.; Krinner, G.; et al. (The Cryosphere, 2015)
TC

Why climate change adaptation in cities needs customised and flexible climate services - Cortekar, Jörg; Bender, Steffen; Brune, Miriam; Groth, Markus (Climate Services, 2016)
Keywords: Adaptation Cities Climate change Climate services Prototype development Stakeholder process

The legacy of Winters v. United States and the Winters Doctrine, one hundred years later - Cosens, Barbara (The Future of Indian and Federal Reserved Water Rights: The Winters Centennial, 2012)

Adaptive governance of water resources shared with Indigenous Peoples: The role of law - Cosens, Barbara; Chaffin, Brian (Water, 2016)

Environmental factors in cardiovascular disease - Cosselman, Kristen E.; Navas-Acien, Ana; Kaufman, Joel D. (Nature Reviews Cardiology, 2015)

Climate Change, Heat Stress and Labour Productivity: A Cost Methodology for City Economies - Costa, Hélia; Floater, Graham; Hooyberghs, Hans; Verbeke, Stijn; De Ridder, Koen (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, 2016)

Assessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern United States - Costanza, Jennifer; Beck, Scott; Pyne, Milo; Terando, Adam; Rubino, Matthew J.; White, Rickie; Collazo, Jaime (US Geological Survey, 2016)

Changes in the global value of ecosystem services - Costanza, Robert; de Groot, Rudolf; Sutton, Paul; van der Ploeg, Sander; Anderson, Sharolyn J.; Kubiszewski, Ida; Farber, Stephen; Turner, R. Kerry (Global Environmental Change, 2014)
Keywords: Ecosystem services Global value Monetary units Natural capital

Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes - Costello, Christopher; Ovando, Daniel; Clavelle, Tyler; Strauss, C. Kent; Hilborn, Ray; Melnychuk, Michael C.; Branch, Trevor A.; Gaines, Steven D.; Szuwalski, Cody S.; Cabral, Reniel B.; Rader, Douglas N.; Leland, Amanda (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016)
What would extensive fishery reform look like? In addition, what would be the benefits and trade-offs of implementing alternative approaches to fisheries management on a worldwide scale? To find out, we assembled the largest-of-its-kind database and coupled it to state-of-the-art bioeconomic models for more than 4,500 fisheries around the world. We find that, in nearly every country of the world, fishery recovery would simultaneously drive increases in food provision, fishery profits, and fish biomass in the sea. Our results suggest that a suite of approaches providing individual or communal access rights to fishery resources can align incentives across profit, food, and conservation so that few trade-offs will have to be made across these objectives in selecting effective policy interventions.Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous—the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world’s fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits.

First Nebraska state collection record of the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) - Costello, Sheryl L.; Schaupp, Willis C. (Coleopterists Bulletin, 2011)

Evolving comparative advantage and the impact of climate change in agricultural markets: Evidence from 1.7 million fields around the world - Costinot, Arnaud; Donaldson, Dave; Smith, Cory (Journal of Political Economy, 2016)
A large agronomic literature models the implications of climate change for a variety of crops and locations around the world. The goal of the present paper is to quantify the macro-level consequences of these micro-level shocks. Using an extremely rich micro-level data set that contains information about the productivity—both before and after climate change—of each of 10 crops for each of 1.7 million fields covering the surface of the earth, we find that the impact of climate change on these agricultural markets would amount to a 0.26 percent reduction in global GDP when trade and production patterns are allowed to adjust. Since the value of output in our 10 crops is equal to 1.8 percent of world GDP, this corresponds to about one-sixth of total crop value.

Long-range transport of Siberian wildfire smoke to British Columbia: Lidar observations and air quality impacts - Cottle, Paul; Strawbridge, Kevin; McKendry, Ian (Atmospheric Environment, 2014)
Keywords: Lidar Aerosols Long range transport Smoke Air quality 2012

Human Impacts on Weather and Climate - Cotton, William R.; Pielke Sr., Roger A. (Cambridge University Press, 2007)

Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States - Coulston, John W.; Wear, David N.; Vose, James M. (Scientific Reports, 2015)

Heat-Related Illness Syndrome Query: A Guidance Document for Implementing Heat-Related Illness Syndromic Surveillance in Public Health Practice - Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) (CSTE, 2016)

Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis - Council, National Research (The National Academies Press, 2013)
Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events--slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Keywords: Environment and Environmental Studies Behavioral and Social Sciences Earth Sciences Conflict and Security Issues

Drought and civil war in sub‐Saharan Africa - Couttenier, Mathieu; Soubeyran, Raphael (Economic Journal, 2014)

Green infrastructure, ecosystem services, and human health - Coutts, Christopher; Hahn, Micah (International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2015)

Land Area Change in Coastal Louisiana (1932 to 2016) - Couvillion, Brady R.; Beck, Holly; Schoolmaster, Donald; Fischer, Michelle (U. S. Geological Survey, 2017)

Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the Great Plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl - Cowan, Tim; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Colfescu, Ioana; Bollasina, Massimo; Purich, Ariaan; Boschat, Ghyslaine (Journal of Climate, 2017)
Record-breaking summer heat waves were experienced across the contiguous United States during the decade-long “Dust Bowl” drought in the 1930s. Using high-quality daily temperature observations, the Dust Bowl heat wave characteristics are assessed with metrics that describe variations in heat wave activity and intensity. Despite the sparser station coverage in the early record, there is robust evidence for the emergence of exceptional heat waves across the central Great Plains, the most extreme of which were preconditioned by anomalously dry springs. This is consistent with the entire twentieth-century record: summer heat waves over the Great Plains develop on average ~15–20 days earlier after anomalously dry springs, compared to summers following wet springs. Heat waves following dry springs are also significantly longer and hotter, indicative of the importance of land surface feedbacks in heat wave intensification. A distinctive anomalous continental-wide circulation pattern accompanied exceptional heat waves in the Great Plains, including those of the Dust Bowl decade. An anomalous broad surface pressure ridge straddling an upper-level blocking anticyclone over the western United States forced substantial subsidence and adiabatic warming over the Great Plains, and triggered anomalous southward warm advection over southern regions. This prolonged and amplified the heat waves over the central United States, which in turn gradually spread westward following heat wave emergence. The results imply that exceptional heat waves are preconditioned, triggered, and strengthened across the Great Plains through a combination of spring drought, upper-level continental-wide anticyclonic flow, and warm advection from the north.
Keywords: Atmosphere-land interaction,Feedback,Heating,Drought,Extreme events,Synoptic-scale processes

Immediate and residual effects of heat stress and restricted intake on milk protein and casein composition and energy metabolism - Cowley, F. C.; Barber, D. G.; Houlihan, A. V.; Poppi, D. P. (Journal of Dairy Science, 2015)
Keywords: heat stress milk protein restricted intake casein

Climate change in the southeastern Bering Sea: Impacts on pollock stocks and implications for the oscillating control hypothesis - Coyle, K. O.; Eisner, L. B.; Mueter, F. J.; Pinchuk, A. I.; Janout, M. A.; Cieciel, K. D.; Farley, E. V.; Andrews, A. G. (Fisheries Oceanography, 2011)
Concern about impacts of climate change in the Bering Sea prompted several research programs to elucidate mechanistic links between climate and ecosystem responses. Following a detailed literature review, Hunt et al. (2011) (Deep-Sea Res. II, 49, 2002, 5821) developed a conceptual framework, the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH), linking climate-related changes in physical oceanographic conditions to stock recruitment using walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) as a model. The OCH conceptual model treats zooplankton as a single box, with reduced zooplankton production during cold conditions, producing bottom-up control of apex predators and elevated zooplankton production during warm periods leading to top-down control by apex predators. A recent warming trend followed by rapid cooling on the Bering Sea shelf permitted testing of the OCH. During warm years (2003–06), euphausiid and Calanus marshallae populations declined, post-larval pollock diets shifted from a mixture of large zooplankton and small copepods to almost exclusively small copepods, and juvenile pollock dominated the diets of large predators. With cooling from 2006–09, populations of large zooplankton increased, post-larval pollock consumed greater proportions of C. marshallae and other large zooplankton, and juvenile pollock virtually disappeared from the diets of large pollock and salmon. These shifts in energy flow were accompanied by large declines in pollock stocks attributed to poor recruitment between 2001 and 2005. Observations presented here indicate the need for revision of the OCH to account for shifts in energy flow through differing food-web pathways due to warming and cooling on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf.

Climate change impacts on the water resources of American Indians and Alaska Natives in the U.S - Cozzetto, K.; Chief, K.; Dittmer, K.; Brubaker, M.; Gough, R.; Souza, K.; Ettawageshik, F.; Wotkyns, S.; Opitz-Stapleton, S.; Duren, S.; Chavan, P. (Climatic Change, 2013)

Supplemental material: Climate change impacts on the water resources of American Indians and Alaska Natives in the U.S - Cozzetto, K.; Chief, K.; Dittmer, K.; Brubaker, M.; Gough, R.; Souza, K.; Ettawageshik, F.; Wotkyns, S.; Opitz-Stapleton, S.; Duren, S.; Chavan, P. (Climatic Change, 2013)

Climate Change and its Impact on Infrastructure Systems in the Midwest - Craighead, Mary (Midwest Economic Policy Institute, 2017)

Climate change and cattle nutritional stress - Craine, J.M.; Elmore, A.J.; Olson, KC; Tolleson, D. (Global Change Biology, 2010)

Defining ecological drought for the twenty-first century - Crausbay, Shelley D.; Ramirez, Aaron R.; Carter, Shawn L.; Cross, Molly S.; Hall, Kimberly R.; Bathke, Deborah J.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Colt, Steve; Cravens, Amanda E.; Dalton, Melinda S.; Dunham, Jason B.; Hay, Lauren E.; et al. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2017)

Colorado air quality impacted by long-range-transported aerosol: A set of case studies during the 2015 Pacific Northwest fires - Creamean, Jessie M.; Neiman, Paul J.; Coleman, Timothy; Senff, Christoph J.; Kirgis, Guillaume; Alvarez, Raul J.; Yamamoto, Atsushi (Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2016)
ACP

Using Geographical Information Systems to Estimate Population in Special Flood Hazards Areas and Coastal Lands and Structures That Will Be Affected by Sea Level Rise in Puerto Rico - Crespo Acevedo, Wanda I.; Moyano Flores, Roberto (Estudios Técnicos, Inc., 2017)

Enhancing organizational resilience through emergency planning: Learnings from cross-sectoral lessons - Crichton, Margaret T.; Ramsay, Cameron G.; Kelly, Terence (Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 2009)

Incorporating occupational risk in heat stress vulnerability mapping - Crider, Kyle G.; Maples, Elizabeth H.; Gohlke, Julia M. (Journal of Environmental Health, 2014)
Both obesity and strenuous outdoor work are known risk factors for heat-related illness (HRI). These risk factors may be compounded by more and longer periods of extreme heat in the southeastern U.S. To quantify occupational risk and investigate the possible predictive value of a GIS-based tool, a weighted occupation-based metabolic equivalent (MET) index was created. The correlation between current MET-weighted employment rates or obesity rates and 2012 HRI report rates in Alabama were then determined. With the current dataset, results indicate occupational and obesity rates may explain some of the geographical variation seen in HRI report rates, although results are not statistically significant with this limited dataset. Mapping occupational and physiological risk factors with HRI rates may be useful for environmental and occupational health professionals to identify “hotspots” that may require special attention.
25185323[pmid] J Environ Health

Executive Summary - Crimmins, Allison; Balbus, John; Gamble, Janet L.; Beard, Charles B.; Bell, Jesse E.; Dodgen, Daniel; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Fann, Neal; Hawkins, Michelle D.; Herring, Stephanie C.; Jantarasami, Lesley; Mills, David M.; et al. (The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, 2016)

Flooding has drained Spokane County’s budget for road repairs - Criscione, Wilson (The Inlander, 2017)

Statistics of evolving populations and their relevance to flood risk - Criss, Robert E. (Journal of Earth Science, 2016)
Statistical methods are commonly used to evaluate natural populations and environmental variables, yet these must recognize temporal trends in population character to be appropriate in an evolving world. New equations presented here define the statistical measures of aggregate historical populations affected by linear changes in population means and standard deviations. These can be used to extract the statistical character of present-day populations, needed to define modern variability and risk, from tables of historical data that are dominated by measurements made when conditions were different. As an example, many factors such as climate change and in-channel structures are causing flood levels to rise, so realistic estimation of future flood levels must take such secular changes into account. The new equations provide estimates of water levels for “100-year” floods in the USA Midwest that are 0.5 to 2 m higher than official calculations that routinely assume population stationarity. These equations also show that flood levels will continue to rise by several centimeters per year. This rate is nearly ten times faster than the rise of sea level, and thus represents one of the fastest and most damaging rates of change that is documented by robust data.

Increasing risk and uncertainty of flooding in the Mississippi River basin - Criss, Robert E.; Luo, Mingming (Hydrological Processes, 2017)
Flooding in the Mississippi basin has become increasingly uncertain, and a succession of progressively higher, peak annual water levels is observed at many sites. Many record levels set in the central USA by the huge 1993 flood have already been superseded. Methodology developed elsewhere that recognizes trends of river stages is used to estimate present-day flood risk at 27 sites in the Mississippi basin that have >100 years of continuous stage record. Unlike official estimates that are fundamentally based on discharge, this methodology requires only data on river stage. A novel plot linearizes the official flood levels that are indirectly derived from the complex, discharge-based calculations and demonstrates that the neglect of trends has resulted in the effective use of undersized means and standard deviations in flood risk analysis. A severe consequence is that official “base flood” levels are underestimated by 0.4 to 2 m at many sites in the central USA.

Public safety and faulty flood statistics - Criss, Robert E.; Winston, William E. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2008)

Great Lakes Climate Change Hydrologic Impact Assessment I.J.C. Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Regulation Study - Croley II, Thomas E. (Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, 2003)

Calcifying coral abundance near low-pH springs: Implications for future ocean acidification - Crook, E. D.; Potts, D.; Rebolledo-Vieyra, M.; Hernandez, L.; Paytan, A. (Coral Reefs, 2012)
Rising atmospheric CO2 and its equilibration with surface ocean seawater is lowering both the pH and carbonate saturation state (Ω) of the oceans. Numerous calcifying organisms, including reef-building corals, may be severely impacted by declining aragonite and calcite saturation, but the fate of coral reef ecosystems in response to ocean acidification remains largely unexplored. Naturally low saturation (Ω ~ 0.5) low pH (6.70–7.30) groundwater has been discharging for millennia at localized submarine springs (called “ojos”) at Puerto Morelos, México near the Mesoamerican Reef. This ecosystem provides insights into potential long term responses of coral ecosystems to low saturation conditions. In-situ chemical and biological data indicate that both coral species richness and coral colony size decline with increasing proximity to low-saturation, low-pH waters at the ojo centers. Only three scleractinian coral species (Porites astreoides, Porites divaricata, and Siderastrea radians) occur in undersaturated waters at all ojos examined. Because these three species are rarely major contributors to Caribbean reef framework, these data may indicate that today’s more complex frame-building species may be replaced by smaller, possibly patchy, colonies of only a few species along the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef. The growth of these scleractinian coral species at undersaturated conditions illustrates that the response to ocean acidification is likely to vary across species and environments; thus, our data emphasize the need to better understand the mechanisms of calcification to more accurately predict future impacts of ocean acidification.

The association between dust storms and daily non-accidental mortality in the United States, 1993–2005 - Crooks, James Lewis; Cascio, Wayne E.; Percy, Madelyn S.; Reyes, Jeanette; Neas, Lucas M.; Hilborn, Elizabeth D. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2016)

Conservative and non-conservative variations of total alkalinity on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf - Cross, Jessica N.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Bates, Nicholas R.; Byrne, Robert H. (Marine Chemistry, 2013)
Keywords: Bering Sea Total alkalinity Carbon biogeochemistry Carbonate mineral saturation states Ocean acidification

National Coastal Population Report: Population Trends from 1970 to 2020 - Crossett, Kristen; Ache, Brent; Pacheco, Percy; Haber, Kate (NOAA Office for Coastal Management, 2013)

Regional climates: United States [in "State of the Climate in 2014"] - Crouch, Jake; Heim, Richard R.; Fenimore, Chris (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015)

Regional climates: United States [in "State of the Climate in 2015"] - Crouch, Jake; Heim, Richard R.; Fenimore, Chris (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2016)

Regional climates: United States [in "State of the Climate in 2012"] - Crouch, Jake; Heim, Richard R.; Hughes, P. E.; Fenimore, Chris (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2013)

Regional climates: United States [in "State of the Climate in 2016"] - Crouch, Jake; Smith, Adam B.; Heim, Richard R.; Fenimore, Chris (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2017)

Are there any satisfactory geologic analogs for a future greenhouse warming? - Crowley, Thomas J. (Journal of Climate, 1990)
There have been numerous attempts to propose past warm time periods as “analogs” for a future greenhouse warming. In this paper it is argued that, although paleoclimate studies may provide important insights into process operating in the climate system, there may be no warm time period that is a satisfactory past analog for future climate. The future greenhouse warming may represent a unique climate realization in earth history. This conclusion is based on the following considerations: 1 ) comparisons with Holocene (9000 BP) or Eemian climates (120 000 BP) may be inappropriate because much of the variations in these climates can be explained in terms of seasonal rather than mean-annual forcing it has yet to be demonstrated that increased warmth for these intervals involved mew annual temperature increases that were globally synchronous, 2) comparisons with older and warmer climates (ex., Pliocene, Eocene, or Cretaceous) can be misleading because these warm periods had reduced polar ice cover, whereas future air temperatures will be very warm, but ice sheets will persist because of their large thermal inertia. Due to the different time scales for the atmosphere, deep ocean, and ice sheets, this significant nonequilibrium component to the future climate response is probably very different than the long time-averaged picture representative of past warm periods. Furthermore, changes in geography have probably significantly modified the atmosphere and ocean circulation during the earlier warm periods resulting in regional climates significantly different than what might occur in the future. It is therefore suggested that future discussions on geologic analogs be restricted to study of processes operating in the climate system and that continued use of the term for past warm time periods be abandoned.

Impacts of Climate Change on Salmon of the Pacific Northwest: A Review of the Scientific Literature Published in 2015 - Crozier, Lisa (NOAA, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2016)

River Conditions, Fisheries and Fish History Drive Variation in Upstream Survival and Fallback for Upper Columbia River Spring and Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon - Crozier, Lisa; Wiesebron, Lauren; Dorfmeier, Elene; Burke, Brian (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2017)

Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change in fish - Crozier, Lisa G.; Hutchings, Jeffrey A. (Evolutionary Applications, 2014)
Keywords: adaptation climate change evolutionary theory fisheries management life-history evolution phenotypic plasticity

Using time series analysis to characterize evolutionary and plastic responses to environmental change: A case study of a shift toward earlier migration date in sockeye salmon - Crozier, L.G.; Scheuerell, M.D.; Zabel, R.W. (The American Naturalist, 2011)

Vulnerability of the oil and gas sector to climate change and extreme weather events - Cruz, Ana Maria; Krausmann, Elisabeth (Climatic Change, 2013)
A changing climate and more frequent extreme weather events pose challenges to the oil and gas sector. Identifying how these changes will affect oil and gas extraction, transportation, processing, and delivery, and how these industries can adapt to or mitigate any adverse impacts will be vital to this sector’s supply security. This work presents an overview of the sector’s vulnerability to a changing climate. It addresses the potential for Natech hazards and proposes risk reduction measures, including mitigation and adaptation options. Assessment frameworks to ensure the safety of people, the environment, and investments in the oil and gas sector in the face of climate change are presented and their limitations discussed. It is argued that a comprehensive and systemic analysis framework for risk assessment is needed. The paper concludes that climate change and extreme weather events represent a real physical threat to the oil and gas sector, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and areas exposed to extreme weather events. The sector needs to take climate change seriously, assess its own vulnerability, and take appropriate measures to prevent or mitigate any potentially negative effects.

A bottom‐up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate - Culley, S.; Noble, S.; Yates, A.; Timbs, M.; Westra, S.; Maier, H. R.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A. (Water Resources Research, 2016)
Many water resource systems have been designed assuming that the statistical characteristics of future inflows are similar to those of the historical record. This assumption is no longer valid due to large‐scale changes in the global climate, potentially causing declines in water resource system performance, or even complete system failure. Upgrading system infrastructure to cope with climate change can require substantial financial outlay, so it might be preferable to optimize existing system performance when possible. This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom‐up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes but also enables an assessment of a system's upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. By optimizing system operation under different hydrometeorological states, it is shown that the system can continue to meet its minimum performance requirements for more than three times as many states as it can under current operations. Importantly, a single management policy, no matter how robust, cannot fully utilize existing infrastructure as effectively as an ensemble of flexible management policies that are updated as the climate changes.

Mountain pine beetle host-range expansion threatens the boreal forest - Cullingham, Catherine I.; Cooke, Janice E. K.; Dang, Sophie; Davis, Corey S.; Cooke, Barry J.; Coltman, David W. (Molecular Ecology, 2011)
Keywords: host-range expansion hybrid jack pine lodgepole pine mountain pine beetle

Measuring wage inequality within and across US metropolitan areas, 2003-2013 - Cunningham, J. Chris (Monthly Labor Review, 2015)
Keywords: added by ERG

The land enriches the soul: On climatic and environmental change, affect, and emotional health and well-being in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada - Cunsolo Willox, Ashlee; Harper, Sherilee L.; Edge, Victoria L.; Landman, Karen; Houle, Karen; Ford, James D.; Rigolet Inuit Community Government (Emotion, Space and Society, 2013)
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"From this place and of this place": Climate change, sense of place, and health in Nunatsiavut, Canada - Cunsolo Willox, A.; Harper, S. L.; Ford, J. D.; Landman, K.; Houle, K.; Edge, V. L.; Rigolet Inuit Community Government (Social Science & Medicine, 2012)
As climate change impacts are felt around the globe, people are increasingly exposed to changes in weather patterns, wildlife and vegetation, and water and food quality, access and availability in their local regions. These changes can impact human health and well-being in a variety of ways: increased risk of foodborne and waterborne diseases; increased frequency and distribution of vector-borne disease; increased mortality and injury due to extreme weather events and heat waves; increased respiratory and cardiovascular disease due to changes in air quality and increased allergens in the air; and increased susceptibility to mental and emotional health challenges. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are experienced most acutely in place; as such, a sense of place, place-attachment, and place-based identities are important indicators for climate-related health and adaptation. Representing one of the first qualitative case studies to examine the connections among climate change, a changing sense of place, and health in an Inuit context, this research draws data from a multi-year community-driven case study situated in the Inuit community of Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada. Data informing this paper were drawn from the narrative analysis of 72 in-depth interviews conducted from November 2009 to October 2010, as well as from the descriptive analysis of 112 questionnaires from a survey in October 2010 (95% response rate). The findings illustrated that climate change is negatively affecting feelings of place attachment by disrupting hunting, fishing, foraging, trapping, and traveling, and changing local landscapes-changes which subsequently impact physical, mental, and emotional health and well-being. These results also highlight the need to develop context-specific climate-health planning and adaptation programs, and call for an understanding of place-attachment as a vital indicator of health and well-being and for climate change to be framed as an important determinant of health.
Cunsolo Willox, Ashlee Harper, Sherilee L Ford, James D Landman, Karen Houle, Karen Edge, Victoria L Canadian Institutes of Health Research/Canada Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't England Soc Sci Med. 2012 Aug;75(3):538-47. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.03.043. Epub 2012 Apr 26.
Keywords: Adolescent Adult Aged Climate Change Emotions Food Supply Health Status Humans Inuits/ psychology Male Mental Health/ ethnology Middle Aged Newfoundland and Labrador/epidemiology Nunavut/epidemiology Qualitative Research Young Adult

Examining relationships between climate change and mental health in the circumpolar North - Cunsolo Willox, Ashlee; Stephenson, Eleanor; Allen, Jim; Bourque, François; Drossos, Alexander; Elgarøy, Sigmund; Kral, Michael J.; Mauro, Ian; Moses, Joshua; Pearce, Tristan; MacDonald, Joanna Petrasek; Wexler, Lisa (Regional Environmental Change, 2015)

Estimating Flood Magnitude and Frequency at Gaged and Ungaged Sites on Streams in Alaska and Conterminous Basins in Canada, Based on Data Through Water Year 2012 - Curran, Janet H.; Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Ourso, Robert T. (U. S. Geological Survey, 2016)

What do we know about short- and long-term effects of early-life exposure to pollution? - Currie, Janet; Zivin, Joshua Graff; Mullins, Jamie; Neidell, Matthew (Annual Review of Resource Economics, 2014)
Evidence shows that pollution exposure early in life is detrimental to near-term health, and an increasing body of evidence suggests that early-childhood health influences health and human capital outcomes later in life. This article reviews the economic research that brings these two literatures together. We begin with a conceptual model that highlights the core relationships across the life cycle. We then review the literature concerned with such estimates, focusing particularly on identification strategies to mitigate concerns regarding endogenous exposure. The nascent empirical literature provides both direct and indirect evidence that early-childhood exposure to pollution significantly impacts later-life outcomes. We discuss the potential policy implications of these long-lasting effects and conclude with a number of promising avenues for future research.
Keywords: child,environment,human capital,health,latent,avoidance behavior

Response of salt marshes to wave energy provides guidance for successful living shoreline implementation - Currin, Carolyn A.; Davis, Jenny; Malhotra, Amit (Living Shorelines: The Science and Management of Nature-Based Coastal Protection, 2017)

The Science of Open Spaces: Theory and Practice for Conserving Large, Complex Systems - Curtin, Charles G. (Island Press, 2015)

Correction: Incorporating cold-air pooling into downscaled climate models increases potential refugia for snow-dependent species within the Sierra Nevada ecoregion, CA - Curtis, Jennifer A.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Hudgens, Brian; Boydston, Erin E.; Young, Julie K. (PLOS ONE, 2015)

The regularity of the spawning season of some fishes - Cushing, D. H. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 1969)
The spawning periods of four temperate or high-latitude fish species - Pacific sockeye salmon, herring, plaice and cod - have been examined. The mean date of peak spawning was established and it was found that the standard deviation of this mean date was low, often less than a week. For three species no trend of date of peak spawning was found; a trend towards later spawning was detected in the Arcto-Norwegian cod stock, about eight ays in seventy years. In contrast the Californian sardine was shown to spawn at very variable periods and it is likely that tuna in the North Pacific anticyclone spawned during most of the year. It is likely that production is continuous in the anticyclonic regions and discontinuous in the high-latitude cyclones; this would be sufficient to account for the differences found between the two groups of fish.
10.1093/icesjms/33.1.81

A Preliminary Environmental Equity Assessment Of California’s Cap-and-Trade Program - Cushing, Lara J.; Wander, Madeline; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Pastor, Manuel; Zhu, Allen; Sadd, James (USC Dornsife, 2016)

A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters - Cutter, Susan L.; Barnes, Lindsey; Berry, Melissa; Burton, Christopher; Evans, Elijah; Tate, Eric; Webb, Jennifer (Global Environmental Change, 2008)

Social vulnerability to environmental hazards - Cutter, S. L.; Boruff, B. J.; Shirley, W. L. (Social Science Quarterly, 2003)
Objective. County-level socioeconomic and demographic data were used to construct an index of social vulnerability to environmental hazards, called the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for the United States based on 1990 data. Methods. Using a factor analytic approach, 42 variables were reduced to 11 independent factors that accounted for about 76 percent of the variance. These factors were placed in an additive model to compute a score-the Social Vulnerability Index. Results. There are some distinct spatial patterns in the SoVI, with the most vulnerable counties clustered in metropolitan counties in the east, south Texas, and the Mississippi Delta region. Conclusion. Those factors that contribute to the overall score often are different for each county, underscoring the interactive nature of social vulnerability-some components increase vulnerability; others moderate the effects.
685RH; Times Cited:186; Cited References Count:63
Keywords: disasters

The long road home: Race, class, and recovery from Hurricane Katrina - Cutter, Susan L.; Emrich, Christopher T.; Mitchell, Jerry T.; Boruff, Bryan J.; Gall, Melanie; Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Burton, Christopher G.; Melton, Ginni (Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 2006)

Ch. 11: Urban systems, infrastructure, and vulnerability - Cutter, Susan L.; Solecki, William; Bragado, Nancy; Carmin, JoAnn; Fragkias, Michail; Ruth, Matthias; Wilbanks, Thomas (Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, 2014)

Linking adaptation science to action to build food secure Pacific Island communities - Cvitanovic, C.; Crimp, S.; Fleming, A.; Bell, J.; Howden, M.; Hobday, A. J.; Taylor, M.; Cunningham, R. (Climate Risk Management, 2016)
Climate change is a major threat to food security in Pacific Island countries, with declines in food production and increasing variability in food supplies already evident across the region. Such impacts have already led to observed consequences for human health, safety and economic prosperity. Enhancing the adaptive capacity of Pacific Island communities is one way to reduce vulnerability and is underpinned by the extent to which people can access, understand and use new knowledge to inform their decision-making processes. However, effective engagement of Pacific Island communities in climate adaption remains variable and is an ongoing and significant challenge. Here, we use a qualitative research approach to identify the impediments to engaging Pacific Island communities in the adaptations needed to safeguard food security. The main barriers include cultural differences between western science and cultural knowledge, a lack of trust among local communities and external scientists, inappropriate governance structures, and a lack of political and technical support. We identify the importance of adaptation science, local social networks, key actors (i.e., influential and trusted individuals), and relevant forms of knowledge exchange as being critical to overcoming these barriers. We also identify the importance of co-ordination with existing on-ground activities to effectively leverage, as opposed to duplicating, capacity.
Keywords: Adaptive capacity Climate adaptation Participation Engagement Knowledge exchange Trust

Environmental urban factors (air pollution and allergens) and the rising trends in allergic respiratory diseases - D’Amato, G. (Allergy, 2002)
Respiratory allergic diseases such as rhinitis and bronchial asthma appear to be increasing worldwide, affecting in particular subjects living in urban areas, and the reasons for this increase are still largely unknown. Although the role played by air pollution has yet to be clarified, a body of evidence suggests that urbanization, with its high levels of vehicle emissions and a westernised lifestyle are linked to the rising frequency of these diseases observed in most industrialized countries. Laboratory studies confirm the epidemiological evidence that inhalation of some pollutants, either individually or in combination, adversely affect lung function in asthmatics. Air pollutants may not only increase the frequency and intensity of symptoms in already allergic patients but may promote airway sensitization to airborne allergens in predisposed subjects. By attaching to the surface of pollen grains and of plant-derived paucimicronic particles, pollutants can modify the morphology of these antigen-carrying agents and alter their allergenic potential. In addition, by inducing airway inflammation, pollutants may overcome the mucosal barrier and so "prime" allergen-induced responses. In other words airway mucosal damage and impaired mucociliary clearance induced by air pollution may facilitate the access of inhaled allergens to the cells of the immune system.
Keywords: Air Pollutants/*adverse effects/analysis *Allergens Humans Pollen Respiratory Hypersensitivity/*epidemiology/etiology *Urban Health

Climate change, air pollution and extreme events leading to increasing prevalence of allergic respiratory diseases - D’Amato, Gennaro; Baena-Cagnani, Carlos E.; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; Nunes, Carlos; Ansotegui, Ignacio; D’Amato, Maria; Liccardi, Gennaro; Sofia, Matteo; Canonica, Walter G. (Multidisciplinary Respiratory Medicine, 2013)
The prevalence of asthma and allergic diseases has increased dramatically during the past few decades not only in industrialized countries. Urban air pollution from motor vehicles has been indicated as one of the major risk factors responsible for this increase.

Effects of climate change on environmental factors in respiratory allergic diseases - D’Amato, G.; Cecchi, L. (Clinical & Experimental Allergy, 2008)

Urban air pollution and climate change as environmental risk factors of respiratory allergy: An update - D’Amato, G.; Cecchi, L.; D’Amato, M.; Liccardi, G. (Journal of Investigational Allergology and Clinical Immunology, 2010)

The role of outdoor air pollution and climatic changes on the rising trends in respiratory allergy - D’Amato, G.; Liccardi, G.; D’Amato, M.; Cazzola, M. (Respiratory Medicine, 2001)
Evidence suggests that allergic respiratory diseases such as hay fever and bronchial asthma have become more common world-wide in the last two decades, and the reasons for this increase are still largely unknown. A major responsible factor could be outdoor air pollution, derived from cars and other vehicles. Studies have demonstrated that urbanization and high levels of vehicle emissions and westernized lifestyle is correlated with the increasing frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy. People who live in urban areas tend to be more affected by pollen-induced respiratory allergy than those from of rural areas. Pollen allergy has been one of the most frequent models used to study the interrelationship between air pollution and respiratory allergic diseases. Pollen grains or plant-derived paucimicronic components carry allergens that can produce allergic symptoms. They may also interact with air pollution (particulate matter, ozone) in producing these effects. There is evidence that air pollutants may promote airway sensitization by modulating the allergenicity of airborne allergens. Furthermore, airway mucosal damage and impaired mucociliary clearance induced by air pollution may facilitate the access of inhaled allergens to the cells of the immune system. In addition, vegetation reacts with air pollution and environmental conditions and influence the plant allergenicity. Several factors influence this interaction, including type of air pollutants, plant species, nutrient balance, climatic factors, degree of airway sensitization and hyperresponsiveness of exposed subjects.
D'Amato, G Liccardi, G D'Amato, M Cazzola, M Journal Article Review England Respir Med. 2001 Jul;95(7):606-11.
Keywords: Air Pollution/*adverse effects Allergens/adverse effects Asthma/*etiology *Climate Humans Hypersensitivity/*etiology Immunoglobulin E/immunology Pollen/adverse effects Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*etiology Urban Health

Thunderstorm-asthma and pollen allergy - D’Amato, G.; Liccardi, G.; Frenguelli, G. (Allergy, 2007)
Thunderstorms have been linked to asthma epidemics, especially during the pollen seasons, and there are descriptions of asthma outbreaks associated with thunderstorms, which occurred in several cities, prevalently in Europe (Birmingham and London in the UK and Napoli in Italy) and Australia (Melbourne and Wagga Wagga). Pollen grains can be carried by thunderstorm at ground level, where pollen rupture would be increased with release of allergenic biological aerosols of paucimicronic size, derived from the cytoplasm and which can penetrate deep into lower airways. In other words, there is evidence that under wet conditions or during thunderstorms, pollen grains may, after rupture by osmotic shock, release into the atmosphere part of their content, including respirable, allergen-carrying cytoplasmic starch granules (0.5-2.5 microm) or other paucimicronic components that can reach lower airways inducing asthma reactions in pollinosis patients. The thunderstorm-asthma outbreaks are characterized, at the beginning of thunderstorms by a rapid increase of visits for asthma in general practitioner or hospital emergency departments. Subjects without asthma symptoms, but affected by seasonal rhinitis can experience an asthma attack. No unusual levels of air pollution were noted at the time of the epidemics, but there was a strong association with high atmospheric concentrations of pollen grains such as grasses or other allergenic plant species. However, subjects affected by pollen allergy should be informed about a possible risk of asthma attack at the beginning of a thunderstorm during pollen season.
D'Amato, G Liccardi, G Frenguelli, G Journal Article Review Denmark Allergy. 2007 Jan;62(1):11-6.
Keywords: Asthma/*epidemiology/etiology Disease Outbreaks Humans *Rain Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal/*epidemiology/etiology Seasons

Climate change, migration, and allergic respiratory diseases: An update for the allergist - D’Amato, G.; Rottem, M.; Dahl, R.; Blaiss, M. S.; Ridolo, E.; Cecchi, L.; Rosario, N.; Motala, C.; Ansotegui, I.; Annesi-Maesano, I. (World Allergy Organization Journal, 2011)
Local climate changes can impact on a number of factors, including air pollution, that have been shown to influence both the development and attacks of allergic respiratory diseases, and they thus represent an important consideration for the allergist. Migration involves exposure to a new set of pollutants and allergens and changes in housing conditions, diet and accessibility to medical services, all of which are likely to affect migrants' health. This review provides an update on climate change, migration, and allergy and discusses factors for consideration when making recommendations for local allergy service provision, and for assessing an individual patient's environmental exposures. Copyright © 2011 by World Allergy Organization.
Cited By (since 1996):3 Export Date: 7 November 2013 Source: Scopus Language of Original Document: English Correspondence Address: Amato, G.; Division of Respiratory Allergy, High Speciality Hospital A. Cardarelli, University of Napoli, Via Rione Sirignano, 10, 80121, Napoli, Italy; email: gdamatomail@gmail.com
Keywords: Allergic respiratory diseases Allergy Climate change Migration and allergy allergen air pollution asthma disease severity drought energy yield environmental exposure greenhouse effect greenhouse gas hospital admission human humidity migration Northern Hemisphere photosynthesis pollen pollen allergy prevalence priority journal respiratory tract allergy review Southern Hemisphere temperature urban area

Performance comparisons of co-occurring native and alien invasive plants: Implications for conservation and restoration - Daehler, Curtis C. (Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 2003)

MARCC-2014: Mongolia Second Assessment Report on Climate Change 2014 - Dagvadorj , Damdin; Batjargal, Zamba; Natsagdorj, Luvsan (Ministry of Environment and Green Development of Mongolia, 2014)

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045 - Dahl, Kristina A.; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika (PLOS ONE, 2017)
Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

Effective inundation of continental United States communities with 21st century sea level rise - Dahl, Kristina A; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika; Caldas, Astrid; Udvardy, Shana (Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2017)

Status and Trends of Wetlands in the Coastal Watersheds of the Conterminous United States 2004 to 2009 - Dahl, Thomas E.; Stedman, Susan-Marie (U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, 2013)

Extreme water quality degradation following a catastrophic forest fire - Dahm, Clifford N.; Candelaria-Ley, Roxanne I.; Reale, Chelsea S.; Reale, Justin K.; Van Horn, David J. (Freshwater Biology, 2015)
Keywords: continuous monitoring dissolved oxygen disturbance forest fire water quality

Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part I: estimates of historical drought changes - Dai, Aiguo; Zhao, Tianbao (Climatic Change, 2017)
How drought may change in the future are of great concern as global warming continues. In Part I of this study, we examine the uncertainties in estimating recent drought changes. Substantial uncertainties arise in the calculated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiraiton (PDSI_pm) due to different choices of forcing data (especially for precipitation, solar radiation and wind speed) and the calibration period. After detailed analyses, we recommend using the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) or the Global Precipitation Climatology (GPCP) datasets over other existing land precipitation products due to poor data coverage in the other datasets since the 1990s. We also recommend not to include the years after 1980 in the PDSI calibration period to avoid including the anthropogenic climate change as part of the natural variability used for calibration. Consistent with reported declines in pan evaporation, our calculated potential evapotranspiration (PET) shows negative or small trends since 1950 over the United States, China, and other regions, and no global PET trends from 1950 to 1990. Updated precipitation and streamflow data and the self-calibrated PDSI_pm all show consistent drying during 1950–2012 over most Africa, East and South Asia, southern Europe, eastern Australia, and many parts of the Americas. While these regional drying trends resulted primarily from precipitation changes related to multi-decadal oscillations in Pacific sea surface temperatures, rapid surface warming and associated increases in surface vapor pressure deficit since the 1980s have become an increasingly important cause of widespread drying over land.

The meaning of a changed environment: Initial assessment of climate change impacts in Maine—Indigenous peoples - Daigle, J.J.; Putnam, D. (Maine’s Climate Future: An Initial Assessment, 2009)

Warming and drought combine to increase pest insect fitness on urban trees - Dale, Adam G.; Frank, Steven D. (PLOS ONE, 2017)
Urban habitats are characterized by impervious surfaces, which increase temperatures and reduce water availability to plants. The effects of these conditions on herbivorous insects are not well understood, but may provide insight into future conditions. Three primary hypotheses have been proposed to explain why multiple herbivorous arthropods are more abundant and damaging in cities, and support has been found for each. First, less complex vegetation may reduce biological control of pests. Second, plant stress can increase plant quality for pests. And third, urban warming can directly increase pest fitness and abundance. These hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, and the effects of temperature and plant stress are particularly related. Thus, we test the hypothesis that urban warming and drought stress combine to increase the fitness and abundance of the scale insect, Melanaspis tenebricosa, an urban tree pest that is more abundant in urban than rural areas of the southeastern U.S. We did this by manipulating drought stress across an existing mosaic of urban warming. We found support for the additive effect of temperature and drought stress such that female embryo production and body size increased with temperature and was greater on drought-stressed than watered trees. This study provides further evidence that drivers of pest insect outbreaks act in concert, rather than independently, and calls for more research that manipulates multiple abiotic factors related to urbanization and climate change to predict their effects on ecological interactions. As cities expand and the climate changes, warmer temperatures and drought conditions may become more widespread in the native range of this pest. These changes have direct physiological benefits for M. tenebricosa, and potentially other pests, that may increase their fitness and abundance in urban and natural forests.

The relationship between land‐use change and climate change - Dale, Virginia H (Ecological Applications, 1997)

Climate change and forest disturbances: Climate change can affect forests by altering the frequency, intensity, duration, and timing of fire, drought, introduced species, insect and pathogen outbreaks, hurricanes, windstorms, ice storms, or landslides - Dale, Virginia H.; Joyce, Linda A.; McNulty, Steve; Neilson, Ronald P.; Ayres, Matthew P.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Hanson, Paul J.; Irland, Lloyd C.; Lugo, Ariel E.; Peterson, Chris J.; Simberloff, Daniel; Swanson, Frederick J.; et al. (BioScience, 2001)

Geographic, environmental and biotic sources of variation in the nutrient relations of tropical montane forests - Dalling, James W.; Heineman, Katherine; González, Grizelle; Ostertag, Rebecca (Journal of Tropical Ecology, 2016)
Tropical montane forests (TMF) are associated with a widely observed suite of characteristics encompassing forest structure, plant traits and biogeochemistry. With respect to nutrient relations, montane forests are characterized by slow decomposition of organic matter, high investment in below-ground biomass and poor litter quality, relative to tropical lowland forests. However, within TMF there is considerable variation in substrate age, parent material, disturbance and species composition. Here we emphasize that many TMFs are likely to be co-limited by multiple nutrients, and that feedback among soil properties, species traits, microbial communities and environmental conditions drive forest productivity and soil carbon storage. To date, studies of the biogeochemistry of montane forests have been restricted to a few, mostly neotropical, sites and focused mainly on trees while ignoring mycorrhizas, epiphytes and microbial community structure. Incorporating the geographic, environmental and biotic variability in TMF will lead to a greater recognition of plant–soil feedbacks that are critical to understanding constraints on productivity, both under present conditions and under future climate, nitrogen-deposition and land-use scenarios.
Keywords: altitude disturbance elevation fertilization mycorrhizas nutrient limitation plant-soil feedbacks productivity soil fertility topography

Third Oregon Climate Assessment Report - Dalton, Meghan M.; Dello, Kathie D.; Hawkins, Linnia; Mote, Philip W.; Rupp, David E. (Oregon State University, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, 2017)

Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, And Communities - Dalton, Meghan M.; Mote, Philip W.; Snover, Amy K. (Island Press, 2013)

Development of a new USDA plant hardiness zone map for the United States - Daly, C.; Widrlechner, M.P.; Halbleib, M.D.; Smith, J.I.; Gibson, W.P. (Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2012)

Warming ocean conditions relate to increased trophic requirements of threatened and endangered salmon - Daly, Elizabeth A.; Brodeur, Richard D. (PLOS ONE, 2015)
The trophic habits, size and condition of yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) caught early in their marine residence were examined during 19 survey years (1981–1985; 1998–2011). Juvenile salmon consumed distinct highly piscivorous diets in cold and warm ocean regimes with major differences between ocean regimes driven by changes in consumption of juvenile rockfishes, followed by several other fish prey, adult euphausiids and decapod larvae. Notable, Chinook salmon consumed 30% more food in the warm versus cold ocean regime in both May and June. Additionally, there were about 30% fewer empty stomachs in the warm ocean regime in May, and 10% fewer in warm June periods. The total prey energy density consumed during the warmer ocean regime was also significantly higher than in cold. Chinook salmon had lower condition factor and were smaller in fork length during the warm ocean regime, and were longer and heavier for their size during the cold ocean regime. The significant increase in foraging during the warm ocean regime occurred concurrently with lower available prey biomass. Adult return rates of juvenile Chinook salmon that entered the ocean during a warm ocean regime were lower. Notably, our long term data set contradicts the long held assertion that juvenile salmon eat less in a warm ocean regime when low growth and survival is observed, and when available prey are reduced. Comparing diet changes between decades under variable ocean conditions may assist us in understanding the effects of projected warming ocean regimes on juvenile Chinook salmon and their survival in the ocean environment. Bioenergetically, the salmon appear to require more food resources during warm ocean regimes.

Effects of thinning on drought vulnerability and climate response in north temperate forest ecosystems - D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J. (Ecological Applications, 2013)
Keywords: climate change growth–climate relationships Minnesota, USA Pinus resinosa

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise - Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P.; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Keywords: tide gauges fingerprints global mean sea level vertical land motion

Impact of climate change on pavement performance: Preliminary lessons learned through the Infrastructure and Climate Network (ICNet) - Daniel, Jo Sias; Jacobs, Jennifer M.; Douglas, Ellen; Mallick, Rajib B.; Hayhoe, Katharine (Climatic Effects on Pavement and Geotechnical Infrastructure, 2014)
ISBN (print): 9780784413326

Climate change: Potential impacts on frost–thaw conditions and seasonal load restriction timing for low-volume roadways - Daniel, Jo Sias; Jacobs, Jennifer M.; Miller, Heather; Stoner, Anne; Crowley, Jillian; Khalkhali, Masoumeh; Thomas, Ashley (Road Materials and Pavement Design, 2017)

The Rise and Fall of the Pacific Northwest Log Export Market - Daniels, Jean M. (USDA, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 2005)

Making Healthy Places: Designing and Building for Health, Well-Being, and Sustainability - Dannenberg, Andrew L.; Frumkin, Howard; Jackson, Richard J. (Island Press, 2011)
Keywords: added by ERG

Evaluation of the Third NCA Production and Dissemination Processes and Products: Briefing to the Advisory Committee for the Sustained National Climate Assessment. - Dantzker Consulting LLC; New Knowledge Organization Ltd; Mimi Shah LLC; MerseCreative; Clarus Research; Strange, Elizabeth (2017)

Emergent phenomena and complexity - Darley, Vince (Artificial Life IV: Proceedings of the Fourth International Workshop on the Synthesis and Simulation of Living Systems, 1994)
ISBN: 9780262521901 (out of stock)

Structure and detectability of trends in hydrological measures over the western United States - Das, T.; Hidalgo, H. G.; Pierce, D. W.; Barnett, T. P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Cayan, D. R.; Bonfils, C.; Bala, G.; Mirin, A. (Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2009)

Increases in flood magnitudes in California under warming climates - Das, Tapash; Maurer, Edwin P.; Pierce, David W.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Cayan, Daniel R. (Journal of Hydrology, 2013)
Keywords: Climate change Statistical downscaling Flood risk Sierra Nevada

Effect of heat stress on reproductive performances of dairy cattle and buffaloes: A review - Dash, Soumya; Chakravarty, A. K.; Singh, Avtar; Upadhyay, Arpan; Singh, Manvendra; Saleem, Yousuf (Veterinary World, 2016)

Little water left as Micronesia struggles with long drought - Dateline Pacific (Radio New Zealand, 2016)

Intergenerational research on Indigenous agricultural knowledge, climate resilience, and food security in the Caribbean - David-Chavez, Dominique M. (Global Change Forum, 2018)

The effects of sampling resolution on the surface albedos of dominant land cover types in the North American boreal region - Davidson, Andrew; Wang, Shusen (Remote Sensing of Environment, 2004)

Anthropogenic nutrients and harmful algae in coastal waters - Davidson, Keith; Gowen, Richard J.; Harrison, Paul J.; Fleming, Lora E.; Hoagland, Porter; Moschonas, Grigorios (Journal of Environmental Management, 2014)
Keywords: Harmful algal blooms HABs Anthropogenic nutrients Human health Economic impact

The business case for soil - Davies, Jess (Nature, 2017)

Species interactions and the effects of climate variability on a wetland amphibian metacommunity - Davis, Courtney L.; Miller, David A. W.; Walls, Susan C.; Barichivich, William J.; Riley, Jeffrey W.; Brown, Mary E. (Ecological Applications, 2017)
Keywords: amphibian communities climate metacommunity multispecies occupancy species interactions wetland dynamics

Living shorelines: Coastal resilience with a blue carbon benefit - Davis, Jenny L.; Currin, Carolyn A.; O’Brien, Colleen; Raffenburg, Craig; Davis, Amanda (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Living shorelines are a type of estuarine shoreline erosion control that incorporates native vegetation and preserves native habitats. Because they provide the ecosystem services associated with natural coastal wetlands while also increasing shoreline resilience, living shorelines are part of the natural and hybrid infrastructure approach to coastal resiliency. Marshes created as living shorelines are typically narrow (< 30 m) fringing marshes with sandy substrates that are well flushed by tides. These characteristics distinguish living shorelines from the larger meadow marshes in which most of the current knowledge about created marshes was developed. The value of living shorelines for providing both erosion control and habitat for estuarine organisms has been documented but their capacity for carbon sequestration has not. We measured carbon sequestration rates in living shorelines and sandy transplanted Spartina alterniflora marshes in the Newport River Estuary, North Carolina. The marshes sampled here range in age from 12 to 38 years and represent a continuum of soil development. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 58 to 283 g C m-2 yr-1 and decreased with marsh age. The pattern of lower sequestration rates in older marshes is hypothesized to be the result of a relative enrichment of labile organic matter in younger sites and illustrates the importance of choosing mature marshes for determination of long-term carbon sequestration potential. The data presented here are within the range of published carbon sequestration rates for S. alterniflora marshes and suggest that wide-scale use of the living shoreline approach to shoreline management may come with a substantial carbon benefit.

Causes of accelerating sea level on the East Coast of North America - Davis, James L.; Vinogradova, Nadya T. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2017)
The tide-gauge record from the North American East Coast reveals significant accelerations in sea level starting in the late twentieth century. The estimated post-1990 accelerations range from near zero to ∼0.3 mm yr−2. We find that the observed sea level acceleration is well modeled using several processes: mass change in Greenland and Antarctica as measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites; ocean dynamic and steric variability provided by the GECCO2 ocean synthesis; and the inverted barometer effect. However, to achieve this fit requires estimation of an admittance for the dynamical and steric contribution, possibly due to the coarse resolution of this analysis or to simplifications associated with parameterization of bottom friction in the shallow coastal areas. The acceleration from ice loss alone is equivalent to a regional sea level rise in one century of 0.2 m in the north and 0.75 m in the south of this region.

Power Failure—How Climate Change Puts Our Electricity at Risk and What We Can Do - Davis, Michelle; Clemmer, Steve (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014)

Nowhere to go but up: Impacts of climate change on demographics of a short-range endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus) in the sky-islands of southwestern North America - Davis, Mark A.; Douglas, Marlis R.; Webb, Colleen T.; Collyer, Michael L.; Holycross, Andrew T.; Painter, Charles W.; Kamees, Larry K.; Douglas, Michael E. (PLOS ONE, 2015)
Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., ‘short range endemics,’ SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (Nb = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07km2) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta)], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (female<male) and life history stages (juvenile<adult) while a steadily declining population trajectory (r = -0.20±0.03) underscores the shallow predicted-time-to-extinction (17.09±2.05 years). Core habitat is receding upwards in elevation and will shift 750km NW under conservative climate estimates. While survival is significantly impacted by wildfire at upper elevations, the extinction vortex is driven by small population demographics, a situation comparable to that of the European Adder (Vipera berus), a conservation icon in southern Sweden. Genetic rescue, a management approach successfully employed in similar situations, is ill advised in this situation due to climate-driven habitat change in the sky islands. CWO is a rare organism in a unique environment, with a conserved niche and a predisposition towards extinction. It is a bellwether for the eventual climate-driven collapse of the Madrean pine-oak ecosystem, one of Earth’s three recognized megadiversity centers.

Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change - Davis, Margaret B.; Shaw, Ruth G. (Science, 2001)
Tree taxa shifted latitude or elevation range in response to changes in Quaternary climate. Because many modern trees display adaptive differentiation in relation to latitude or elevation, it is likely that ancient trees were also so differentiated, with environmental sensitivities of populations throughout the range evolving in conjunction with migrations. Rapid climate changes challenge this process by imposing stronger selection and by distancing populations from environments to which they are adapted. The unprecedented rates of climate changes anticipated to occur in the future, coupled with land use changes that impede gene flow, can be expected to disrupt the interplay of adaptation and migration, likely affecting productivity and threatening the persistence of many species.

Seasonal to multidecadal variability of the width of the tropical belt - Davis, N. A.; Birner, T. (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2013)
Keywords: general circulation climate change tropical belt Hadley circulation reanalyses GPS radio occultation 3319 General circulation 3305 Climate change and variability 3374 Tropical meteorology

Temperature observation time and type influence estimates of heat-related mortality in seven U.S. cities - Davis, Robert E.; Hondula, David M.; Patel, Anjali P. (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2016)

Using modelling to predict impacts of sea level rise and increased turbidity on seagrass distributions in estuarine embayments - Davis, Tom R.; Harasti, David; Smith, Stephen D. A.; Kelaher, Brendan P. (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2016)
Keywords: Climate change Seagrass Australia New South Wales Species distribution modelling

Differing contributions of density dependence and climate to the population dynamics of three eruptive herbivores - Davis, Thomas S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Bosque-Pérez, Nilsa A.; Halbert, Susan E.; Pike, Keith; Eigenbrode, Sanford D. (Ecological Entomology, 2014)
Keywords: Aphids biogeography climate landscape ecology spatial analysis suction trap time series

Managing for climate change in the alpine ski sector - Dawson, J.; Scott, D. (Tourism Management, 2013)
Keywords: Ski tourism Climate change Vulnerability Adaptation Management

Skier demand and behavioural adaptation to climate change in the US Northeast - Dawson, Jackie; Scott, Daniel; Havitz, Mark (Leisure/Loisir, 2013)

Understanding the meteorological drivers of U.S. particulate matter concentrations in a changing climate - Dawson, John P.; Bloomer, Bryan J.; Winner, Darrell A.; Weaver, Christopher P. (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2014)
Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a serious public health issue for the United States. While there is a growing body of evidence that climate change will partially counter the effectiveness of future precursor emission reductions to reduce ozone (O3) air pollution, the links between PM and climate change are more complex and less understood. This paper discusses what we currently understand about the potential sensitivity of PM episodes to climate-change-related shifts in air pollution meteorology, in the broader context of the emissions and atmospheric chemistry drivers of PM. For example, initial studies have focused largely on annual average concentrations of inorganic aerosol species. However, the potential for future changes in the occurrence of PM episodes, and their underlying meteorological drivers, are likely more important to understand and remain highly uncertain. In addition, a number of other poorly understood factors interact with these likely critical meteorological changes. These include changes in emissions from wildfires, as well as atmospheric processing of organic aerosol precursor chemicals. More work is needed to support the management of the health and environmental risks of climate-induced changes in PM. We suggest five priorities for the research community to address based on the current state of the literature.

Handling interdependencies in climate change risk assessment - Dawson, Richard J. (Climate, 2015)

Beyond predictions: Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate - Dawson, Terence P.; Jackson, Stephen T.; House, Joanna I.; Prentice, Iain Colin; Mace, Georgina M. (Science, 2011)
Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change, including the extent of species’ natural resilience. We introduce a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.

Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent - Day, J. J.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Abe-Ouchi, A. (Environmental Research Letters, 2012)
The observed dramatic decrease in September sea ice extent (SIE) has been widely discussed in the scientific literature. Though there is qualitative agreement between observations and ensemble members of the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), it is concerning that the observed trend (1979–2010) is not captured by any ensemble member. The potential sources of this discrepancy include: observational uncertainty, physical model limitations and vigorous natural climate variability. The latter has received less attention and is difficult to assess using the relatively short observational sea ice records. In this study multi-centennial pre-industrial control simulations with five CMIP3 climate models are used to investigate the role that the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) play in decadal sea ice variability. Further, we use the models to determine the impact that these sources of variability have had on SIE over both the era of satellite observation (1979–2010) and an extended observational record (1953–2010). There is little evidence of a relationship between the AO and SIE in the models. However, we find that both the AMO and AMOC indices are significantly correlated with SIE in all the models considered. Using sensitivity statistics derived from the models, assuming a linear relationship, we attribute 0.5–3.1%/decade of the 10.1%/decade decline in September SIE (1979–2010) to AMO driven variability.

Restoration of the Mississippi Delta: Lessons from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita - Day, J. W., Jr.; Boesch, D. F.; Clairain, E. J.; Kemp, G. P.; Laska, S. B.; Mitsch, W. J.; Orth, K.; Mashriqui, H.; Reed, D. J.; Shabman, L.; Simenstad, C. A.; Streever, B. J.; et al. (Science, 2007)
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita showed the vulnerability of coastal communities and how human activities that caused deterioration of the Mississippi Deltaic Plain (MDP) exacerbated this vulnerability. The MDP formed by dynamic interactions between river and coast at various temporal and spatial scales, and human activity has reduced these interactions at all scales. Restoration efforts aim to re-establish this dynamic interaction, with emphasis on reconnecting the river to the deltaic plain. Science must guide MDP restoration, which will provide insights into delta restoration elsewhere and generally into coasts facing climate change in times of resource scarcity.
Day, John W Jr Boesch, Donald F Clairain, Ellis J Kemp, G Paul Laska, Shirley B Mitsch, William J Orth, Kenneth Mashriqui, Hassan Reed, Denise J Shabman, Leonard Simenstad, Charles A Streever, Bill J Twilley, Robert R Watson, Chester C Wells, John T Whigham, Dennis F Review United States Science. 2007 Mar 23;315(5819):1679-84.
Keywords: Disasters Ecosystem Engineering Environment Geography Geologic Sediments Humans Louisiana Mississippi Rivers Soil Wetlands

Toward an understanding of community resilience and the potential effects of enrichments to the benthos at McMurdo Sound, Antarctica - Dayton, Paul K. (Proceedings of the Colloquium on Conservation Problems in Antarctica, 1972)

Clean Rivers Project [web site] - DC Water (DC Water, 2018)

Improving the usability of integrated assessment for adaptation practice: Insights from the U.S. southeast energy sector - de Bremond, Ariane; Preston, Benjamin L.; Rice, Jennie (Environmental Science & Policy, 2014)
Keywords: Climate change Energy Adaptation Integrated assessment Decision-making

The role of drought and climate change in the Syrian uprising: Untangling the triggers of the revolution - De Châtel, Francesca (Middle Eastern Studies, 2014)

Linking wetland ecosystem services to vector-borne disease: Dengue fever in the San Juan Bay Estuary, Puerto Rico - De Jesús Crespo, Rebeca; Méndez Lázaro, Pablo; Yee, Susan H. (Wetlands, 2018)
Mosquito-borne diseases are an increasingly important health concern, which pose great challenges for safe and sustainable control and eradication. This reality calls for management approaches that consider multiple aspects of the transmission cycle from a landscape and vector ecology perspective, to socio-economic elements that may increase exposure. This study seeks to better understand these pathways using dengue fever in the San Juan Bay Estuary (SJBE), Puerto Rico. Dengue is transmitted by Aedes aegypti, a species that thrives in cities. Here we ask which elements within the urban landscape could be managed to help prevent dengue outbreaks. We studied the potential of coastal wetlands in the SJBE to buffer vector proliferation, hypothesizing that wetland ecosystem services lead to lower dengue occurrence. We test this hypothesis using census-block level dengue data from 2010-13, including the largest epidemic in Puerto Rican history. Our analytical model includes socio-economic factors and environmental controls that may also affect dengue dynamics. Results from beta-binomial regressions and model averaging indicated that dengue occurrence was lower in neighborhoods with higher wetland cover even after controlling for population density and other socio-economic aspects. Our models suggest that heat hazard mitigation is partly responsible for the association between wetlands and dengue.

Debris flows and road damage following a wildfire in 2014 on the Klamath National Forest, Northern California, near the community of Seiad, CA - De La Fuente, Juan A.; Mikulovsky, Ryan P. (AGU Fall Meeting, 2016)

Incoming! Association of landscape features with dispersing mountain pine beetle populations during a range expansion event in western Canada - De la Giroday, Honey-Marie C.; Carroll, Allan L.; Lindgren, B. Staffan; Aukema, Brian H. (Landscape Ecology, 2011)
Mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is a forest insect that undergoes intermittent population eruptions, causing landscape-level mortality to mature pines. Currently, an outbreak covers over 16.3 million ha of British Columbia and Alberta in western Canada. Recent incursion into the jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) of northwestern Alberta threatens further range expansion through the boreal forest to central and eastern Canada. The spread from British Columbia into northwestern Alberta has been facilitated by above-canopy dispersal of the insect by meso-scale atmospheric currents. At these scales, dispersing D. ponderosae may behave like inert particles, causing terrain-induced tropospheric convective and advective currents to influence population dispersal and establishment. We use spatial point process regression models to examine the association of meso-scale variables, including landscape features and their orientations, habitat suitability, elevation and treatment efforts, with occurrence of D. ponderosae infestations in 2004, 2005, and 2006. Infestations of D. ponderosae primarily established in canyons and valleys, before moving into more open-sloped areas. Southwestern slopes of midslope ridges and small hills, southwest facing open slopes, and valleys that run in a northeast–southwest cardinal direction were positively associated with higher intensities of infestation. This study provides insight into the influences of complex terrain on landscape disturbance by a forest insect, and can be used to prioritize areas for potential management.

Bottom trawling and oxygen minimum zone influences on continental slope benthic community structure off Vancouver Island (NE Pacific) - De Leo, Fabio C.; Gauthier, Maéva; Nephin, Jessica; Mihály, Steven; Juniper, S. Kim (Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2017)
Keywords: Bottom trawling Dissolved oxygen Benthic megafauna Continental slope Northeast Pacific

Agricultural engineering in development: Post-harvest operations and management of foodgrains - De Lucia, M.; Assennato, D. (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1994)

Flexibility in Engineering Design - De Neufville, Richard; Scholtes, Stefan (Engineering Systems, 2011)

Determining robust impacts of land-use-induced land cover changes on surface climate over North America and Eurasia: Results from the first set of LUCID experiments - De Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Pitman, Andy; Bonan, G. B.; Brovkin, V.; Cruz, Faye; Delire, C.; Gayler, V.; Hurk, B. J. J. M. van den; Lawrence, P. J.; Molen, M. K. van der; Müller, C.; et al. (Journal of Climate, 2012)
The project Land-Use and Climate, Identification of Robust Impacts (LUCID) was conceived to address the robustness of biogeophysical impacts of historical land use–land cover change (LULCC). LUCID used seven atmosphere–land models with a common experimental design to explore those impacts of LULCC that are robust and consistent across the climate models. The biogeophysical impacts of LULCC were also compared to the impact of elevated greenhouse gases and resulting changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent (CO2SST). Focusing the analysis on Eurasia and North America, this study shows that for a number of variables LULCC has an impact of similar magnitude but of an opposite sign, to increased greenhouse gases and warmer oceans. However, the variability among the individual models’ response to LULCC is larger than that found from the increase in CO2SST. The results of the study show that although the dispersion among the models’ response to LULCC is large, there are a number of robust common features shared by all models: the amount of available energy used for turbulent fluxes is consistent between the models and the changes in response to LULCC depend almost linearly on the amount of trees removed. However, less encouraging is the conclusion that there is no consistency among the various models regarding how LULCC affects the partitioning of available energy between latent and sensible heat fluxes at a specific time. The results therefore highlight the urgent need to evaluate land surface models more thoroughly, particularly how they respond to a perturbation in addition to how they simulate an observed average state.
Keywords: Atmosphere-land interaction,Biosphere-atmosphere interaction,Climate change,Surface fluxes,Climate models,Land surface model

Seasonal heat stress: Clinical implications and hormone treatments for the fertility of dairy cows - De Rensis, F.; Garcia-Ispierto, I.; López-Gatius, F. (Theriogenology, 2015)
Keywords: Bovine Estrus Pregnancy Breeding protocol

Phenological synchronization disrupts trophic interactions between Kodiak brown bears and salmon - Deacy, William W.; Armstrong, Jonathan B.; Leacock, William B.; Robbins, Charles T.; Gustine, David D.; Ward, Eric J.; Erlenbach, Joy A.; Stanford, Jack A. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Climate change is altering the seasonal timing of life cycle events in organisms across the planet, but the magnitude of change often varies among taxa [Thackeray SJ, et al. (2016) Nature 535:241–245]. This can cause the temporal relationships among species to change, altering the strength of interaction. A large body of work has explored what happens when coevolved species shift out of sync, but virtually no studies have documented the effects of climate-induced synchronization, which could remove temporal barriers between species and create novel interactions. We explored how a predator, the Kodiak brown bear (Ursus arctos middendorffi), responded to asymmetric phenological shifts between its primary trophic resources, sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) and red elderberry (Sambucus racemosa). In years with anomalously high spring air temperatures, elderberry fruited several weeks earlier and became available during the period when salmon spawned in tributary streams. Bears departed salmon spawning streams, where they typically kill 25–75% of the salmon [Quinn TP, Cunningham CJ, Wirsing AJ (2016) Oecologia 183:415–429], to forage on berries on adjacent hillsides. This prey switching behavior attenuated an iconic predator–prey interaction and likely altered the many ecological functions that result from bears foraging on salmon [Helfield JM, Naiman RJ (2006) Ecosystems 9:167–180]. We document how climate-induced shifts in resource phenology can alter food webs through a mechanism other than trophic mismatch. The current emphasis on singular consumer-resource interactions fails to capture how climate-altered phenologies reschedule resource availability and alter how energy flows through ecosystems.

Deal declares state of emergency ahead of Hurricane Irma - Deal, Nathan (Office of the Governor, 2017)

Ecosystem services to enhance sustainable forest management in the US: Moving from forest service national programmes to local projects in the Pacific Northwest - Deal, Robert L.; Smith, Nikola; Gates, Joe (Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research, 2017)
Ecosystem services are increasingly recognized as a way of framing and describing the broad suite of benefits that people receive from forests. The USDA Forest Service has been exploring use of an ecosystem services framework to describe forest values provided by federal lands and to attract and build partnerships with stakeholders to implement projects. Recently, the agency has sought placed-based applications of the ecosystem services framework to national forest management to better illustrate the concept for policymakers, managers and forest stakeholders. This framework includes describing the ecosystem services provided by forest landscapes, examining the potential trade-offs among services associated with proposed management activities, and attracting and building partnerships with stakeholders who benefit from particular services forests provide. Projects that describe objectives and outcomes using an ecosystem services framework are quickly gaining respect and could provide an optimal method of managing forests to better serve the needs of people. We describe how project-scale guidelines can be designed to address commonly recognized products such as timber and clean water, as well as critical regulating, supporting and cultural services. We present results from national programmes to forest plan assessments to project-scale applications that enhance the provision of ecosystem services and sustainable forest management at broad to local scales.
10.1093/forestry/cpx025

Evidence of enhanced precipitation due to irrigation over the Great Plains of the United States - DeAngelis, A.; Dominguez, F.; Fan, Y.; Robock, A.; Kustu, M.D.; Robinson, D. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2010)

Perspectives on climate change mitigation - DeAngelo, B.; Edmonds, J.; Fahey, D.W.; Sanderson, B.M. (Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017)