Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 - Slangen, Aimee B. A.; Church, John A.; Agosta, Cecile; Fettweis, Xavier; Marzeion, Ben; Richter, Kristin (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Detection and attribution of global mean thermosteric sea level change - Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Church, John A.; Zhang, Xuebin; Monselesan, Didier (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Keywords: sea-level change detection & attribution CMIP5 1641 Sea level change 1626 Global climate models

Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard - Slater, Louise J.; Singer, Michael Bliss; Kirchner, James W. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2015)
Keywords: flood frequency morphodynamics climate change flood hazard trends streamflow hazards 1821 Floods 1825 Geomorphology: fluvial 1860 Streamflow 1872 Time series analysis 4321 Climate impact

Recent trends in U.S. flood risk - Slater, Louise J.; Villarini, Gabriele (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: flood stage precipitation water storage basin wetness risk 1821 Floods 1833 Hydroclimatology 1854 Precipitation 4313 Extreme events 4328 Risk 8488 Volcanic hazards and risks

Projected future carbon storage and carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Hawai‘i from changes in climate, land use, and disturbance - Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin J.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Jacobi, James D.; Selmants, Paul C.; Giardina, Christian P.; Litton, Creighton M.; Hughes, R. Flint (Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Storage and Carbon Fluxes in Ecosystems of Hawaiʻi, 2017)

Land Cover and Land Use Change - Sleeter, B.M.; Loveland, T.; Domke, G.; Herold, N.; Wickham, J.; Wood, N. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Land-cover change in the conterminous United States from 1973 to 2000 - Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Auch, Roger F.; Acevedo, William; Drummond, Mark A.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Stehman, Stephen V. (Global Environmental Change, 2013)
Keywords: Land use Land cover Ecoregions Landsat Urbanization Forestry Agriculture

Utilizing Yurok Traditional Ecological Knowledge to Inform Climate Change Priorities - Sloan, Kathleen; Hostler, Joe (Yurok Tribe Environmental Program, 2014)

Rural Transportation Needs - Slone, Sean (Council of State Governments, 2011)

Trends in precipitation and streamflow in the eastern U.S.: Paradox or perception? - Small, David; Islam, Shafiqul; Vogel, Richard M. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2006)
Keywords: 1803 Anthropogenic effects 1821 Floods 1833 Hydroclimatology 1854 Precipitation 1860 Streamflow

Mangrove expansion into salt marshes alters associated faunal communities - Smee, Delbert L.; Sanchez, James A.; Diskin, Meredith; Trettin, Carl (Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 2017)
Keywords: Vegetation shift Climate change Shrimp

Swollen Midwest Rivers Bring Transportation to Standstill - Smith, Alexander; Chuck, Elizabeth; Gostanian, Ali (NBC News, 2015)

2017 U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: A historic year in context - Smith, Adam B. (Climate.gov News & Features, 2018)

U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: Data sources, trends, accuracy and biases - Smith, Adam B.; Katz, Richard W. (Natural Hazards, 2013)
Keywords: Natural disasters Losses Statistics of extreme events Data sources

The science of firescapes: Achieving fire-resilient communities - Smith, Alistair M. S.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Paveglio, Travis B.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Moritz, Max A.; Kliskey, Andrew D.; Alessa, Lilian; Hudak, Andrew T.; Hoffman, Chad M.; Lutz, James A.; Queen, Lloyd P.; et al. (BioScience, 2016)
Wildland fire management has reached a crossroads. Current perspectives are not capable of answering interdisciplinary adaptation and mitigation challenges posed by increases in wildfire risk to human populations and the need to reintegrate fire as a vital landscape process. Fire science has been, and continues to be, performed in isolated “silos,” including institutions (e.g., agencies versus universities), organizational structures (e.g., federal agency mandates versus local and state procedures for responding to fire), and research foci (e.g., physical science, natural science, and social science). These silos tend to promote research, management, and policy that focus only on targeted aspects of the “wicked” wildfire problem. In this article, we provide guiding principles to bridge diverse fire science efforts to advance an integrated agenda of wildfire research that can help overcome disciplinary silos and provide insight on how to build fire-resilient communities.

What is causing the harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie? - Smith, Douglas R.; King, Kevin W.; Williams, Mark R. (Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2015)

Yellowstone after Wolves - Smith, Douglas W.; Peterson, Rolf O.; Houston, Douglas B. (BioScience, 2003)
With gray wolves restored to Yellowstone National Park, this ecosystem once again supports the full native array of large ungulates and their attendant large carnivores. We consider the possible ecological implications of wolf restoration in the context of another national park, Isle Royale, where wolves restored themselves a half-century ago. At Isle Royale, where resident mammals are relatively few, wolves completely eliminated coyotes and went on to influence moose population dynamics, which had implications for forest growth and composition. At Yellowstone, we predict that wolf restoration will have similar effects to a degree, reducing elk and coyote density. As at Isle Royale, Yellowstone plant communities will be affected, as will mesocarnivores, but to what degree is as yet undetermined. At Yellowstone, ecosystem response to the arrival of the wolf will take decades to unfold, and we argue that comprehensive ecological research and monitoring should be an essential long-term component of the management of Yellowstone National Park.
10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0330:YAW]2.0.CO;2

Hurricanes disrupt freight sector, send rates soaring - Smith, Jennifer (Wall Street Journal, 2017)

Climate Effects on U.S. International Interests - Smith, J.B.; Muth, M.; Alpert, A.; Buizer, J.L.; Cooks, J.; Dave, A.; Furlow, J.; Preston, K.; Schultz, P.; Vaughan, L. (Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018)

Potential consequences of climate variaility and change for the western United States - Smith, Joel B.; Richels, Richard; Miller, Barbara (Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, 2001)

Potential impact of sea level rise on coastal surges in southeast Louisiana - Smith, Jane McKee; Cialone, Mary A.; Wamsley, Ty V.; McAlpin, Tate O. (Ocean Engineering, 2010)
Keywords: Hurricane Katrina Sea level rise Southeast Louisiana Storm surge Waves ADCIRC STWAVE IPET

Human health: Impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits - Smith, K. R.; Woodward, A.; Campbell-Lendrum, D.; Chadee, D. D.; Honda, Y.; Liu, Q.; Olwoch, J. M.; Revich, B.; Sauerborn, R. (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, 2014)

New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury - Smith, Laurence C.; Stephenson, Scott R. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2013)
Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.

Potential rise in iron deficiency due to future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions - Smith, M. R.; Golden, C. D.; Myers, S. S. (GeoHealth, 2017)
Keywords: iron deficiency climate change global health nutrition 4322 Health impact 4901 Abrupt/rapid climate change

Effect of erosion in Alaskan coastal villages - Smith, Nichelle; Sattineni, Anoop (52nd ASC Annual International Conference Proceedings, 2016)

REVIEW: The role of ecosystems and their management in regulating climate, and soil, water and air quality - Smith, Pete; Ashmore, Mike R.; Black, Helaina I. J.; Burgess, Paul J.; Evans, Chris D.; Quine, Timothy A.; Thomson, Amanda M.; Hicks, Kevin; Orr, Harriet G. (Journal of Applied Ecology, 2013)
Ecosystems have a critical role in regulating climate, and soil, water and air quality, but management to change an ecosystem process in support of one regulating ecosystem service can either provide co‐benefits to other services or can result in trade‐offs. We examine the role of ecosystems in delivering these regulating ecosystem services, using the UK as our case study region. We identify some of the main co‐benefits and trade‐offs of ecosystem management within, and across, the regulating services of climate regulation, and soil, water and air quality regulation, and where relevant, we also describe interactions with other ecosystem services. Our analysis clearly identifies the many important linkages between these different ecosystem services. However, soil, water and air quality regulation are often governed by different legislation or are under the jurisdiction of different regulators, which can make optimal management difficult to identify and to implement. Policies and legislation addressing air, water and soil are sometimes disconnected, with no integrated overview of how these policies interact. This can lead to conflicting messages regarding the use and management of soil, water and air. Similarly, climate change legislation is separate from that aiming to protect and enhance soil, water and air quality, leading to further potential for policy conflict. All regulating services, even if they are synergistic, may trade off against other ecosystem services. At a policy level, this may well be the biggest conflict. The fact that even individual regulating services comprise multiple and contrasting indicators (e.g. the various components of water quality such as nutrient levels, acidity, pathogens and sediments), adds to the complexity of the challenge. Synthesis and applications. We conclude that although there are some good examples of integrated ecosystem management, some aspects of ecosystem management could be better coordinated to deliver multiple ecosystem services, and that an ecosystem services framework to assess co‐benefits and trade‐offs would help regulators, policy‐makers and ecosystem managers to deliver more coherent ecosystem management strategies. In this way, an ecosystem services framework may improve the regulation of climate, and soil, water and air quality, even in the absence of economic valuation of the individual services.

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions - Smith, Pete; Davis, Steven J.; Creutzig, Felix; Fuss, Sabine; Minx, Jan; Gabrielle, Benoit; Kato, Etsushi; Jackson, Robert B.; Cowie, Annette; Kriegler, Elmar; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Rogelj, Joeri; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)
To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 [deg]C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.

Estimating the permanent loss of groundwater storage in the southern San Joaquin Valley, California - Smith, R. G.; Knight, R.; Chen, J.; Reeves, J. A.; Zebker, H. A.; Farr, T.; Liu, Z. (Water Resources Research, 2017)
Keywords: InSAR subsidence groundwater 1835 Hydrogeophysics 1829 Groundwater hydrology 1855 Remote sensing

Multi-decadal changes in salt marshes of Cape Cod, MA: Photographic analyses of vegetation loss, species shifts, and geomorphic change - Smith, Stephen M. (Northeastern Naturalist, 2009)

Vegetation change in salt marshes of Cape Cod National Seashore (Massachusetts, USA) between 1984 and 2013 - Smith, Stephen M. (Wetlands, 2015)
Vegetation patterns in salt marshes are largely based on elevation in relation to tidal flooding. In New England salt marshes, vegetation is distinctly zoned into species that occur in the high marsh (elevations above mean high tide) vs. those that reside in the low marsh (elevations below mean high tide). The extent and distribution of these species is responsive to changes in hydrology, particularly sea level rise. In this study, six salt marshes within Cape Cod National Seashore (CCNS) were analyzed using a GIS-based mapping approach that utilized aerial images from 1984 and 2013. The results indicate that there have been highly variable amounts of change among marshes. There have been substantial losses of high marsh vegetation (>190 acres in total), while low marsh vegetation has exhibited large gains in some marshes and relatively minor losses in others with a total net gain of >131 acres. Because sea level rise appears to be outpacing vertical accretion, higher water levels in the near future could result in large vegetation shifts, which would translate to significant changes in marsh structure and function.

Mangroves, hurricanes, and lightning strikes: Assessment of Hurricane Andrew suggests an interaction across two differing scales of disturbance - Smith, Thomas J., III; Robblee, Michael B.; Wanless, Harold R.; Doyle, Thomas W. (BioScience, 1994)
10.2307/1312230

Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization - Smith, W. Kolby; Reed, Sasha C.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Wieder, William R.; Liu, Yi Y.; Running, Steven W. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)

Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector - Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A. (Biogeosciences, 2014)

SNAP Climate-Outlook Community Charts - SNAP Community Charts (Scenarios Network for Alaska + Arctic Planning (SNAP), 2017)

Decline of Arctic sea ice: Evaluation and weighting of CMIP5 projections - Snape, Thomas J.; Forster, Piers M. (Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2014)
Keywords: Arctic Ice-free CMIP5 Variability 0750 Sea ice 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change 1621 Cryospheric change 1626 Global climate models 9315 Arctic region

Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments - Snover, A.K.; Binder, L.; Lopez, J.; Willmott, E.; Kay, J.; Sims, R.; Wyman, M.; Hentschel, M.; Strickler, A. (ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability, 2007)

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Washington State: Technical Summaries for Decision Makers. State of Knowledge Report Prepared for the Washington State Department of Ecology - Snover, Amy K.; Mauger, G. S.; Whitely Binder, Lara C.; Krosby, M.; Tohver, I. (University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group, 2013)

2017 Water Resources Plan - SNWA (Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA), 2017)

Rain on small tropical islands - Sobel, A. H.; Burleyson, C. D.; Yuter, S. E. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011)
Keywords: rainfall islands tropical 1878 Water/energy interactions 1840 Hydrometeorology 3374 Tropical meteorology 3309 Climatology

Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity - Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A. (Science, 2016)
Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas–driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts - Socolar, Jacob B.; Epanchin, Peter N.; Beissinger, Steven R.; Tingley, Morgan W. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Climate warming poses two major challenges for birds: exposure to higher temperatures and disruption of the synchrony between nesting and resource emergence. To cope, birds are expected to track temperature by moving to cooler areas and to track resource emergence by breeding earlier. We show that these two responses are intertwined. Earlier breeding can substitute for range shifts by reducing temperatures during critical breeding-season life-history events. We show that early-summer temperatures affect nesting success in North American birds and that Californian birds breed ∼1 wk earlier today than a century ago. Thus, without shifting geographically, birds now nest at similar temperatures as they did a century ago, which might reshape both the need and the opportunity for range shifts.Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and other consumers are widely understood as the principal mechanism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous opportunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has been widely overlooked. Using a canonical dataset of Californian bird surveys and a detectability-based approach for quantifying phenological signal, we show that Californian bird communities advanced their breeding phenology by 5–12 d over the last century. This phenological shift might track shifting resource peaks, but it also reduces average temperatures during nesting by over 1 °C, approximately the same magnitude that average temperatures have warmed over the same period. We further show that early-summer temperature anomalies are correlated with nest success in a continental-scale database of bird nests, suggesting avian thermal niches might be broadly limited by temperatures during nesting. These findings outline an adaptation surface where geographic range and breeding phenology respond jointly to constraints imposed by temperature and resource phenology. By stabilizing temperatures during nesting, phenological shifts might mitigate the need for range shifts. Global change ecology will benefit from further exploring phenological adjustment as a potential mechanism for thermal niche tracking and vice versa.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy - Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon C.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R. (Ecological Applications, 2016)
Keywords: climate change impacts conservation planning hydrological projection Prairie Pothole Region vulnerability assessment waterfowl

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios - Sohl, Terry L; Wimberly, Michael C; Radeloff, Volker C; Theobald, David M; Sleeter, Benjamin M (Ecological Modelling, 2016)

Potential of forest thinning to mitigate drought stress: A meta-analysis - Sohn, Julia A.; Saha, Somidh; Bauhus, Jürgen (Forest Ecology and Management, 2016)
Keywords: Stand density Water stress Radial growth Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes Water potential Resilience

Global climate change impacts on forests and markets - Sohngen, Brent; Tian, Xiaohui (Forest Policy and Economics, 2016)
Keywords: Climate change Dynamic optimization Dieback Disturbance Ecosystems

Shifts in historical streamflow extremes in the Colorado River Basin - Solander, Kurt C.; Bennett, Katrina E.; Middleton, Richard S. (Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2017)
Keywords: Streamflow Extremes Mann-Kendall trend analysis Generalized Extreme Value Snowmelt Colorado River Basin

Transitions between risk management regimes in cities - Solecki, William; Pelling, Mark; Garschagen, Matthias (Ecology and Society, 2017)

City transformations in a 1.5 °C warmer world - Solecki, William; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Dhakal, Shobhakar; Roberts, Debra; Barau, Aliyu Salisu; Schultz, Seth; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana (Nature Climate Change, 2018)
Meeting the ambitions of the Paris Agreement will require rapid and massive decarbonization of cities, as well as adaptation. Capacity and requirement differs across cities, with challenges and opportunities for transformational action in both the Global North and South.

Climate change and infrastructure adaptation in coastal New York City - Solecki, W.; Rosenzweig, C.; Gornitz, V.; Horton, R.; Major, D.C.; Partrick, L.; Zimmerman, R. (Climate Change and the Coast: Building Resilient Communities, 2014)
Keywords: added by ERG

Sedimentation Survey of Lago Loíza, Puerto Rico, January 2004 - Soler-López, Luis R.; Licha-Soler, N. A. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2005)

Sedimentation Survey of Lago Loíza, Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico, July 2009 - Soler-López, Luis R.; Licha-Soler, N. A. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2012)

Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions - Solomon, S.; Plattner, G. K.; Knutti, R.; Friedlingstein, P. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009)
The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450-600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the "dust bowl'' era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4-1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6-1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding approximate to 1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.
Keywords: dangerous interference precipitation sea level rise warming greenland ice-sheet sea-level rise model co2 increase projections atmosphere ocean cycle 21st-century

What changes in the carbonate system, oxygen, and temperature portend for the northeastern Pacific Ocean: A physiological perspective - Somero, George N.; Beers, Jody M.; Chan, Francis; Hill, Tessa M.; Klinger, Terrie; Litvin, Steven Y. (BioScience, 2016)
The northeastern Pacific Ocean is undergoing changes in temperature, carbonate chemistry, and dissolved oxygen concentration in concert with global change. Each of these stressors has wide-ranging effects on physiological systems, which may differ among species and life-history stages. Simultaneous exposure to multiple stressors may lead to even stronger impacts on organisms, but interacting effects remain poorly understood. Here, we examine how single- and multiple-stressor effects on physiology may drive changes in the behavior, biogeography, and ecosystem structure in coastal marine ecosystems, with emphasis on the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. By analyzing the effects of stressors on physiological processes common to many marine taxa, we may be able to develop broadly applicable understandings of the effects of global change. This mechanistic foundation may contribute to the development of models and other decision-support tools to assist resource managers and policymakers in anticipating and addressing global change–driven alterations in marine populations and ecosystems.
10.1093/biosci/biv162

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Science overview and knowledge needs - Sommers, William T; Loehman, Rachel A; Hardy, Colin C (Forest Ecology and Management, 2014)

A comparative study of adverse drug reactions during two heat waves that occurred in France in 2003 and 2006 - Sommet, Agnès; Durrieu, Genevieve; Lapeyre-Mestre, Maryse; Montastruc, Jean-Louis (Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety, 2012)
Purpose Heat waves could reveal or aggravate several ‘serious’ adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in elderly. Thus, we wanted to describe the main characteristics of heat-related ‘serious’ ADRs occurred in patients older than 70 years during these two events in France (2003 and 2006). Methods We analysed ‘serious’ ADRs reported to the network of French pharmacovigilance centres in summer 2003 and 2006 and suspected to be heat related. ‘Serious’ ADRs occurred during summers with heat waves (2003 and 2006) were compared with ADRs occurred during the same months in the summers of 2004 and 2005 (reference period). Results Patients' characteristics and number of ‘serious’ ADRs were similar whatever the year of the study. Number of drug-related deaths seemed higher in 2003 than in 2004–2005. More ‘serious’ heat-related ADRs were reported in the summers of 2003 and 2006 (68 in 2003 and 72 in 2006). Comparing with the reference period, metabolic ADRs were less frequent during the summers of 2003 (29%, p = 0.0001) and 2006 (39%, p = 0.003). Occurrence of other ADRs was similar whatever the period. Drugs more frequently involved during heat waves were diuretics, serotonic antidepressants, angiotensin converting inhibitors and proton pump inhibitors. Differences between 2003 and 2006 were found for non-dopaminergic (atropinic) antiparkinsonians or antiepileptics (most frequently involved in 2006) and beta-blockers or proton pump inhibitors (less frequently involved in 2006). Conclusion The present study underlines the interest of a National Pharmacovigilance Database to follow each year the role of drugs in heat-related ADRs. This survey should be associated with other pharmacoepidemiological methods, such as case–control or population-based studies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Extreme precipitation events and increased risk of campylobacteriosis in Maryland, U.S.A - Soneja, Sutyajeet; Jiang, Chengsheng; Romeo Upperman, Crystal; Murtugudde, Raghu; S. Mitchell, Clifford; Blythe, David; Sapkota, Amy R.; Sapkota, Amir (Environmental Research, 2016)
Keywords: Campylobacteriosis Climate change Coastal vulnerability El Niño La Niña

Agriculture, Food, Forestry and Fishing in the Northwest U.S: An Economic Overview. Executive Summary - Sorte, Bruce; Rahe, Mallory; Lewin, Paul (Oregon State University Extension Service, and University of Idaho Extension Service, 2016)

Synergies between climate change and species invasions: Evidence from marine systems - Sorte, Cascade J. B. (Invasive species and global climate change, 2014)

Long-term declines in an intertidal foundation species parallel shifts in community composition - Sorte, Cascade J. B.; Davidson, Victoria E.; Franklin, Marcus C.; Benes, Kylla M.; Doellman, Meredith M.; Etter, Ron J.; Hannigan, Robyn E.; Lubchenco, Jane; Menge, Bruce A. (Global Change Biology, 2017)
Keywords: Atlantic benchmarks biodiversity community ecology foundation species global change historical ecology mussel Mytilus edulis population biology

Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance - Sorte, Cascade J. B.; Ibáñez, Ines; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Molinari, Nicole A.; Miller, Luke P.; Grosholz, Edwin D.; Diez, Jeffrey M.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Olden, Julian D.; Jones, Sierra J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S. (Ecology Letters, 2013)
Keywords: Climate change CO2 effect size forecasting global warming invasive species meta-analysis performance precipitation resource utilisation

Making It Count After Irma and María: Household Relief and Recovery in Puerto Rico - Sou, Gemma; Aponte-González, Felix (Universtiy of Manchester, Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute, 2017)

Recent land-use/land-cover change in the Central California Valley - Soulard, C.E.; Wilson, T.S. (Journal of Land Use Science, 2013)

Economic Impact of Hunting, Fishing, Trapping, Boating, and Wildlife Viewing in South Dakota. Produced for South Dakota Game, Fish, and Parks - Southwick Associates (Southwick Associates, 2017)

The role of ecosystems in coastal protection: Adapting to climate change and coastal hazards - Spalding, Mark D.; Ruffo, Susan; Lacambra, Carmen; Meliane, Imèn; Hale, Lynne Zeitlin; Shepard, Christine C.; Beck, Michael W. (Ocean & Coastal Management, 2014)

The estimated impact of California’s urban water conservation mandate on electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions - Spang, Edward, S.; Holguin, Andrew J.; Loge, Frank J. (Environmental Research Letters, 2018)
In April 2015, the Governor of California mandated a 25% statewide reduction in water consumption (relative to 2013 levels) by urban water suppliers. The more than 400 public water agencies affected by the regulation were also required to report monthly progress towards the conservation goal to the State Water Resources Control Board. This paper uses the reported data to assess how the water utilities have responded to this mandate and to estimate the electricity savings and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions associated with reduced operation of urban water infrastructure systems. The results show that California succeeded in saving 524 000 million gallons (MG) of water (a 24.5% decrease relative to the 2013 baseline) over the mandate period, which translates into 1830 GWh total electricity savings, and a GHG emissions reduction of 521 000 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (MT CO 2 e). For comparison, the total electricity savings linked to water conservation are approximately 11% greater than the savings achieved by the investor-owned electricity utilities’ efficiency programs for roughly the same time period, and the GHG savings represent the equivalent of taking about 111 000 cars off the road for a year. These indirect, large-scale electricity and GHG savings were achieved at costs that were competitive with existing programs that target electricity and GHG savings directly and independently. Finally, given the breadth of the results produced, we built a companion website, called ‘H2Open’ ( https://cwee.shinyapps.io/greengov/ [http://https://cwee.shinyapps.io/greengov/] ), to this research effort that allows users to view and explore the data and results across scales, from individual water utilities to the statewide summary.

Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten U.S. East and Gulf Coast Communities over the Next 30 Years - Spanger-Siegfried, Erika; Fitzpatrick, Melanie; Dahl, Kristina (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014)

The lucky ones: Native American tribe receives $48m to flee climate change - Spanne, Autumn (The Guardian, 2016)

A case-crossover study of heat exposure and injury risk in outdoor agricultural workers - Spector, June T.; Bonauto, David K.; Sheppard, Lianne; Busch-Isaksen, Tania; Calkins, Miriam; Adams, Darrin; Lieblich, Max; Fenske, Richard A. (PLOS ONE, 2016)
Background Recent research suggests that heat exposure may increase the risk of traumatic injuries. Published heat-related epidemiological studies have relied upon exposure data from individual weather stations. Objective To evaluate the association between heat exposure and traumatic injuries in outdoor agricultural workers exposed to ambient heat and internal heat generated by physical activity using modeled ambient exposure data. Methods A case-crossover study using time-stratified referent selection among 12,213 outdoor agricultural workers with new Washington State Fund workers’ compensation traumatic injury claims between 2000 and 2012 was conducted. Maximum daily Humidex exposures, derived from modeled meteorological data, were assigned to latitudes and longitudes of injury locations on injury and referent dates. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios of injury for a priori daily maximum Humidex categories. Results The mean of within-stratum (injury day and corresponding referent days) standard deviations of daily maximum Humidex was 4.8. The traumatic injury odds ratio was 1.14 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 1.22), 1.15 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 1.25), and 1.10 (95% confidence interval 1.01, 1.20) for daily maximum Humidex of 25–29, 30–33, and ≥34, respectively, compared to < 25, adjusted for self-reported duration of employment. Stronger associations were observed during cherry harvest duties in the June and July time period, compared to all duties over the entire study period. Conclusions Agricultural workers laboring in warm conditions are at risk for heat-related traumatic injuries. Combined heat-related illness and injury prevention efforts should be considered in high-risk populations exposed to warm ambient conditions in the setting of physical exertion.

Nonstationary decision model for flood risk decision scaling - Spence, Caitlin M.; Brown, Casey M. (Water Resources Research, 2016)
Hydroclimatic stationarity is increasingly questioned as a default assumption in flood risk management (FRM), but successor methods are not yet established. Some potential successors depend on estimates of future flood quantiles, but methods for estimating future design storms are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Here we apply a Nonstationary Decision Model (NDM) to flood risk planning within the decision scaling framework. The NDM combines a nonstationary probability distribution of annual peak flow with optimal selection of flood management alternatives using robustness measures. The NDM incorporates structural and nonstructural FRM interventions and valuation of flows supporting ecosystem services to calculate expected cost of a given FRM strategy. A search for the minimum‐cost strategy under incrementally varied representative scenarios extending across the plausible range of flood trend and value of the natural flow regime discovers candidate FRM strategies that are evaluated and compared through a decision scaling analysis (DSA). The DSA selects a management strategy that is optimal or close to optimal across the broadest range of scenarios or across the set of scenarios deemed most likely to occur according to estimates of future flood hazard. We illustrate the decision framework using a stylized example flood management decision based on the Iowa City flood management system, which has experienced recent unprecedented high flow episodes. The DSA indicates a preference for combining infrastructural and nonstructural adaptation measures to manage flood risk and makes clear that options‐based approaches cannot be assumed to be “no” or “low regret.”

Case studies in co-benefits approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation - Spencer, Benjamin; Lawler, Josh; Lowe, Celia; Thompson, LuAnne; Hinckley, Tom; Kim, Soo-Hyung; Bolton, Susan; Meschke, Scott; Olden, Julian D.; Voss, Joachim (Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 2017)

Modelling spatially dependent predation mortality of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock, and its implications for stock dynamics under future climate scenarios - Spencer, Paul D.; Holsman, Kirstin K.; Zador, Stephani; Bond, Nicholas A.; Mueter, Franz J.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Ianelli, James N. (ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2016)

UAH Version 6 global satellite temperature products: Methodology and results - Spencer, Roy W.; Christy, John R.; Braswell, William D. (Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017)
Version 6 of the UAH MSU/AMSU global satellite temperature dataset represents an extensive revision of the procedures employed in previous versions of the UAH datasets. The two most significant results from an end-user perspective are (1) a decrease in the global-average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) trend from +0.14°C decade−1 to +0.11°C decade−1 (Jan. 1979 through Dec. 2015); and (2) the geographic distribution of the LT trends, including higher spatial resolution, owing to a new method for computing LT. We describe the major changes in processing strategy, including a new method for monthly gridpoint averaging which uses all of the footprint data yet eliminates the need for limb correction; a new multi-channel (rather than multi-angle) method for computing the lower tropospheric (LT) temperature product which requires an additional tropopause (TP) channel to be used; and a new empirical method for diurnal drift correction. We show results for LT, the midtroposphere (MT, from MSU2/AMSU5), and lower stratosphere (LS, from MSU4/AMSU9). A 0.03°C decade−1 reduction in the global LT trend from the Version 5.6 product is partly due to lesser sensitivity of the new LT to land surface skin temperature (est. 0.01°C decade−1), with the remainder of the reduction (0.02°C decade−1) due to the new diurnal drift adjustment, the more robust method of LT calculation, and other changes in processing procedures.

Analysis of flash flood parameters and human impacts in the US from 2006 to 2012 - Špitalar, Maruša; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Lutoff, Celine; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Brilly, Mitja; Carr, Nicholas (Journal of Hydrology, 2014)
Ch7

Biochar: A synthesis of its agronomic impact beyond carbon sequestration - Spokas, Kurt A.; Cantrell, Keri B.; Novak, Jeffrey M.; Archer, David W.; Ippolito, James A.; Collins, Harold P.; Boateng, Akwasi A.; Lima, Isabel M.; Lamb, Marshall C.; McAloon, Andrew J.; Lentz, Rodrick D.; Nichols, Kristine A. (Journal of Environmental Quality, 2012)
Biochar has been heralded as an amendment to revitalize degraded soils, improve soil carbon sequestration, increase agronomic productivity, and enter into future carbon trading markets. However, scientific and economic technicalities may limit the ability of biochar to consistently deliver on these expectations. Past research has demonstrated that biochar is part of the black carbon continuum with variable properties due to the net result of production (e.g., feedstock and pyrolysis conditions) and postproduction factors (storage or activation). Therefore, biochar is not a single entity but rather spans a wide range of black carbon forms. Biochar is black carbon, but not all black carbon is biochar. Agronomic benefits arising from biochar additions to degraded soils have been emphasized, but negligible and negative agronomic effects have also been reported. Fifty percent of the reviewed studies reported yield increases after black carbon or biochar additions, with the remainder of the studies reporting alarming decreases to no significant differences. Hardwood biochar (black carbon) produced by traditional methods (kilns or soil pits) possessed the most consistent yield increases when added to soils. The universality of this conclusion requires further evaluation due to the highly skewed feedstock preferences within existing studies. With global population expanding while the amount of arable land remains limited, restoring soil quality to nonproductive soils could be key to meeting future global food production, food security, and energy supplies; biochar may play a role in this endeavor. Biochar economics are often marginally viable and are tightly tied to the assumed duration of agronomic benefits. Further research is needed to determine the conditions under which biochar can provide economic and agronomic benefits and to elucidate the fundamental mechanisms responsible for these benefits.

Coextirpation of host-affiliate relationships in rivers: The role of climate change, water withdrawal, and host-specificity - Spooner, D. E.; Xenopoulos, M. A.; Schneider, C.; Woolnough, D. A. (Global Change Biology, 2011)
Keywords: biodiversity; climate change; discharge; extirpation; fish; functional; redundancy; habitat modeling; host-specificity; mussel; simulation; fresh-water; species richness; extinction risk; dreissena-polymorpha; mussel assemblages; aquatic ecosystem; severe drought; coastal-plain; united-states; zebra mussels

Wildfires drive interannual variability of organic carbon aerosol in the western US in summer - Spracklen, D.V.; Logan, J.A.; Mickley, L.J.; Park, R.J.; Yevich, R.; Westerling, A.L.; Jaffe, D.A. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2007)

Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States - Spracklen, D.V.; Mickley, L.J.; Logan, J.A.; Hudman, R.C.; Yevich, R.; Flannigan, M.D.; Westerling, A.L. (Journal of Geophysical Research, 2009)

Adapting to Climate Change in the Pacific: The PACC [Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change] Programme - SPREP (Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and United Nations Development Programme, 2013)
978-982-04-0501-1 (print) 978-982-04-0502-8 (ecopy)

Regional dust storm modeling for health services: The case of valley fever - Sprigg, William A.; Nickovic, Slobodan; Galgiani, John N.; Pejanovic, Goran; Petkovic, Slavko; Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Vukovic, Ana; Dacic, Milan; DiBiase, Scott; Prasad, Anup; El-Askary, Hesham (Aeolian Research, 2014)
Keywords: Airborne dust Haboob Dust storm Forecasts Valley fever Disease surveillance

Modeling the present and future geographic distribution of the Lone Star tick, Amblyomma americanum (Ixodida: Ixodidae), in the continental United States - Springer, Yuri P.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Barnett, David T.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Eisen, Rebecca J. (The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2015)

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: A modelling study - Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter (The Lancet, 2016)

Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades - Sproles, E. A.; Roth, T. R.; Nolin, A. W. (The Cryosphere, 2017)
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Toward a physically plausible upper bound of sea-level rise projections - Sriver, Ryan L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Olson, Roman; Keller, Klaus (Climatic Change, 2012)
Anthropogenic sea-level rise (SLR) causes considerable risks. Designing a sound SLR risk-management strategy requires careful consideration of decision-relevant uncertainties such as the reasonable upper bound of future SLR. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment reported a likely upper SLR bound in the year 2100 near 0.6 m (meter). More recent studies considering semi-empirical modeling approaches and kinematic constraints on glacial melting suggest a reasonable 2100 SLR upper bound of approximately 2 m. These recent studies have broken important new ground, but they largely neglect uncertainties surrounding thermal expansion (thermosteric SLR) and/or observational constraints on ocean heat uptake. Here we quantify the effects of key parametric uncertainties and observational constraints on thermosteric SLR projections using an Earth system model with a dynamic three-dimensional ocean, which provides a mechanistic representation of deep ocean processes and heat uptake. Considering these effects nearly doubles the contribution of thermosteric SLR compared to previous estimates and increases the reasonable upper bound of 2100 SLR projections by 0.25 m. As an illustrative example of the effect of overconfidence, we show how neglecting thermosteric uncertainty in projections of the SLR upper bound can considerably bias risk analysis and hence the design of adaptation strategies. For conditions close to the Port of Los Angeles, the 0.25 m increase in the reasonable upper bound can result in a flooding-risk increase by roughly three orders of magnitude. Results provide evidence that relatively minor underestimation of the upper bound of projected SLR can lead to major downward biases of future flooding risks.

Transportation Asset Climate Change Risk Assessment. Prepared For the Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization - SSFM International (2011)

Mississippi River Low Water Level Economic Impact: December 2012-January 2013 - St. Amand, David (Navigistics Consulting, 2012)

Kay Bailey Hutchison Inland desalination facility - St. Juliana, Alexis; Vogel, Jason (Climate Adaptation: The State of Practice in U.S. Communities, 2016)

Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Akwesasne - St. Regis Mohawk Tribe (Saint Regis Mohawk Tribe, 2013)

Comparison of warm and cold years on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf and some implications for the ecosystem - Stabeno, Phyllis J.; Kachel, Nancy B.; Moore, Sue E.; Napp, Jeffrey M.; Sigler, Michael; Yamaguchi, Atsushi; Zerbini, Alexandre N. (Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2012)
Keywords: Bering Sea Interannual variability Ocean currents Ecosystem Climate Zooplankton

Modeling valley fever incidence in Arizona using a satellite-derived soil moisture proxy - Stacy, Patrick K. R.; Comrie, Andrew C.; Yool, Stephen R. (GIScience & Remote Sensing, 2012)

The 50% FEMA rule appraisal - Staebler, Patricia (The Appraisal Journal, 2017)

Country life: Wetland rehabilitation effort paying off - Staff Writer (Ohio Ag Net, 2015)

Unprotected ground: The plight of vanishing island nations - Stahl, Shaina (New York International Law Review, 2010)

Historical and Projected Climate (1901–2050) and Hydrologic Response of Karst Aquifers, and Species Vulnerability in South-Central Texas and Western South Dakota - Stamm, John F.; Poteet, Mary F.; Symstad, Amy J.; Musgrove, MaryLynn; Long, Andrew J.; Mahler, Barbara J.; Norton, Parker A. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2014)

Health effects of drought: A systematic review of the evidence - Stanke, Carla; Kerac, Marko; Prudhomme, Christel; Medlock, Jolyon; Murray, Virginia (PLoS Currents: Disasters, 2013)
2013 Jun 5 . Edition 1. (In PLOS citation)
Keywords: added by ERG

Liberia Climate Change Assessment - Stanturf, John; Goodrick, Scott; Warren, Mel; Stegall, Christie; Williams, Marcus (USAID Liberia Mission, 2013)

Hawaii's Invasive Species: A Guide to Invasive Plants and Animals in the Hawaiian Islands - Staples, George W.; Cowie, Robert H. (Bishop Museum Press, 2001)

Time series analysis of forest carbon dynamics: Recovery of Pinus palustris physiology following a prescribed fire - Starr, G.; Staudhammer, C. L.; Loescher, H. W.; Mitchell, R.; Whelan, A.; Hiers, J. K.; O’Brien, J. J. (New Forests, 2015)
Frequency and intensity of fire determines the structure and regulates the function of savanna ecosystems worldwide, yet our understanding of prescribed fire impacts on carbon in these systems is rudimentary. We combined eddy covariance (EC) techniques and fuel consumption plots to examine the short-term response of longleaf pine forest carbon dynamics to one prescribed fire at the ends of an edaphic gradient (mesic and xeric sites). We also introduce novel (to the EC research community) statistical time-series approaches to quantify the drivers of carbon dynamics in these systems. We determined that our mesic site was a moderate sink of carbon (−157.7 ± 25.1 g C m−2 year−1), while the xeric site was carbon neutral (5.9 ± 32.8 g C m−2 year−1) during the study. The fire released 408 and 153 g C m−2 year−1 for the mesic and xeric sites, respectively. When loss associated with fire was combined with net ecosystem exchange rates, both sites became moderate carbon sources for the year. Analyses of assimilation and respiration parameters (e.g., maximum photosynthesis, quantum efficiency, and daytime ecosystem respiration) showed a positive trend over time pre-fire and a negative trend over time post-fire for maximum ecosystem CO2 uptake rates, and the opposite relationship for daytime ecosystem respiration rates. Within 30 days following fire, ecosystem physiological activity was statistically similar to pre-fire and appeared to be driven by the pine canopy. Our results suggest that prescribed fire (low intensity, high frequency) maintains the existing structure and function (in this case, carbon flux rates) because longleaf pine ecosystems have evolved with fire. This study, 1 year in length, provides a foundational understanding of the complex interaction between fire and carbon dynamics for longleaf pine ecosystems. Moreover, it provides a case study for applying time series analysis methods to EC data where there are complex relationships between ecosystem physiological activity and environmental drivers. However, to elicit a broader understanding of the complex interaction occurring between fire and carbon dynamics long- term studies are needed.

Field Guide to California Agriculture - Starrs, Paul; Goin, Peter (California Natural History Guides, 2010)

START [web site] - START International (START International, 2017)

California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 - State of California (California Legislative Information, 2006)

Contingency Plan for Excessive Heat Emergencies - State of California (California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, 2014)

A Proclamation of a State of Emergency [April 25, 2014] - State of California (State of California, Office of Governor, 2014)

Planning for Sea-Level Rise Database [web site] - State of California (State of California, Ocean Protection Council, 2014)

Sustainable Groundwater Management - State of California (California Department of Water Resources, 2016)

Groundwater Sustainability Plan Emergency Regulations - State of California (California Department of Water Resources, 2016)

Executive Order B-40-17 (Terminating the January 17, 2014 Drought State of Emergency in all California Counties Except Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Tuolumne) - State of California (State of California, Executive Department, 2017)

Sustainable Hawaiʻi Initiative - State of Hawaiʻi (2017)
Hawaii Governor D. Ige has set a goal of 100% increase in local agriculture production by 2020

Final Report of the Commission to Study the Effects of Coastal and Ocean Acidification and Its Existing and Potential Effects on Species That are Commercially Harvested and Grown Along the Maine Coast - State of Maine. 126th Legislature. Second Regular Session (State of Maine Legislature, 2015)

Massachusetts General Laws, Part I, Title III, Ch. 30, Section 61 - State of Massachusetts (2012)

Chances of Hitting a Deer in My State [web site] - StateFarm (StateFarm, 2017)

Biodiversity in a changing climate: A synthesis of current and projected trends in the US - Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.; Cross, Molly S.; Dubois, Natalie S.; Duffy, J. Emmett; Enquist, Carolyn; Griffis, Roger; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; O'Leary, John; Morrison, Scott A.; Sneddon, Lesley; et al. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2013)

Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services. Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment - Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2012)

Integrating Climate Change into Northeast and Midwest State Wildlife Action Plans - Staudinger, Michelle D.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Bryan, Alexander M. (DOI Northeast Climate Science Center Report, 2015)

The added complications of climate change: Understanding and managing biodiversity and ecosystems - Staudt, Amanda; Leidner, Allison K.; Howard, Jennifer; Brauman, Kate A.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Hansen, Lara J.; Paukert, Craig; Sabo, John; Solórzano, Luis A. (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2013)

Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous western USA - Stavros, E. Natasha; Abatzoglou, John; Larkin, Narasimhan K.; McKenzie, Donald; Steel, E. Ashley (International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2014)
Very large wildfires can cause significant economic and environmental damage, including destruction of homes, adverse air quality, firefighting costs and even loss of life. We examine how climate is associated with very large wildland fires (VLWFs ≥50 000 acres, or ~20 234 ha) in the western contiguous USA. We used composite records of climate and fire to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of VLWF–climatic relationships. Results showed quantifiable fire weather leading up and up to 3 weeks post VLWF discovery, thus providing predictors of the probability that VLWF occurrence in a given week. Models were created for eight National Interagency Fire Center Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs). Accuracy was good (AUC > 0.80) for all models, but significant fire weather predictors of VLWFs vary by GACC, suggesting that broad-scale ecological mechanisms associated with wildfires also vary across regions. These mechanisms are very similar to those found by previous analyses of annual area burned, but this analysis provides a means for anticipating VLWFs specifically and thereby the timing of substantial area burned within a given year, thus providing a quantifiable justification for proactive fire management practices to mitigate the risk and associated damage of VLWFs.
Keywords: AUC, GACC, logistic regression, niche space, precision, rare events, recall, wildland fire.

Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States - Stavros, E. Natasha; Abatzoglou, John T.; McKenzie, Donald; Larkin, Narasimhan K. (Climatic Change, 2014)
Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF ≥ 50,000 ac ~ 20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p ≤ 0.05) increases in VLWF probability for climate of the mid-21st century (2031–2060) relative to contemporary climate are found, for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The largest differences are in the Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest. Changes in seasonality and frequency of VLWFs d7epend on changes in the future climate space. For example, flammability-limited areas such as the Pacific Northwest show that (with high model agreement) the frequency of weeks with VLWFs in a given year is 2–2.7 more likely. However, frequency of weeks with at least one VLWF in fuel-limited systems like the Western Great Basin is 1.3 times more likely (with low model agreement). Thus, areas where fire is directly associated with hot and dry climate, as opposed to experiencing lagged effects from previous years, experience more change in the likelihood of VLWF in future projections. The results provide a quantitative foundation for management to mitigate the effects of VLWFs.

Getting from here to where? Flood frequency analysis and climate - Stedinger, Jery R.; Griffis, Veronica W. (JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2011)
Keywords: flood frequency analysis climate variability/change surface water hydrology uncertainty analysis statistics

Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region - Steen, Valerie A.; Skagen, Susan K.; Melcher, Cynthia P. (Wetlands, 2016)
The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

Climate-smart agriculture global research agenda: Scientific basis for action - Steenwerth, Kerri L.; Hodson, Amanda K.; Bloom, Arnold J.; Carter, Michael R.; Cattaneo, Andrea; Chartres, Colin J.; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Henry, Kevin; Hopmans, Jan W.; Horwath, William R.; Jenkins, Bryan M.; Kebreab, Ermias; et al. (Agriculture & Food Security, 2014)
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) addresses the challenge of meeting the growing demand for food, fibre and fuel, despite the changing climate and fewer opportunities for agricultural expansion on additional lands. CSA focuses on contributing to economic development, poverty reduction and food security; maintaining and enhancing the productivity and resilience of natural and agricultural ecosystem functions, thus building natural capital; and reducing trade-offs involved in meeting these goals. Current gaps in knowledge, work within CSA, and agendas for interdisciplinary research and science-based actions identified at the 2013 Global Science Conference on Climate-Smart Agriculture (Davis, CA, USA) are described here within three themes: (1) farm and food systems, (2) landscape and regional issues and (3) institutional and policy aspects. The first two themes comprise crop physiology and genetics, mitigation and adaptation for livestock and agriculture, barriers to adoption of CSA practices, climate risk management and energy and biofuels (theme 1); and modelling adaptation and uncertainty, achieving multifunctionality, food and fishery systems, forest biodiversity and ecosystem services, rural migration from climate change and metrics (theme 2). Theme 3 comprises designing research that bridges disciplines, integrating stakeholder input to directly link science, action and governance.

Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice - Stein, Bruce; Glick, Patty; Edelson, Naomi; Staudt, Amanda (National Wildlife Foundation, 2014)

Precious Heritage: The Status of Biodiversity in the United States - Stein, Bruce A.; Kutner, Lynn S.; Adams, Jonathan S. (Oxford University Press, 2000)

Biodiversity conservation for a climate-altered future - Stein, Bruce A.; Shaw, M. Rebecca (Successful Adaptation to Climate Change: Linking Science and Policy in a Rapidly Changing World, 2013)

Preparing for and managing change: Climate adaptation for biodiversity and ecosystems - Stein, Bruce A.; Staudt, Amanda; Cross, Molly S.; Dubois, Natalie S.; Enquist, Carolyn; Griffis, Roger; Hansen, Lara J.; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Nelson, Erik J.; Pairis, Amber (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2013)

A sea of warriors: Performing an identity of resilience and empowerment in the face of climate change in the Pacific - Steiner, Candice Elanna (The Contemporary Pacific, 2015)
It is estimated that by 2050 as many as 75 million people in the Asia-Pacific region will be forced to migrate from their homelands due to the negative impacts of climate change. While many representations of Pacific Island communities affected by climate change emphasize helplessness, Pacific Islanders have been negotiating identities of empowerment and resilience in both political and cultural arenas. This essay provides an analysis of the messages that Islander performers have chosen to convey through three performance contexts: the 2011 Water Is Rising concert tour, which featured groups from Kiribati, Tokelau, and Tuvalu; 350 Pacific’s Pacific Warrior Campaign, including both the 2013 Warrior Day of Action and the 2014 Canoe Building Day of Action; and the multimedia dramatic performance Moana: The Rising of the Sea, written and produced by Vilsoni Hereniko. Through these three campaigns, we can see that Islanders are actively shaping their identity in the face of climate change, choosing to be seen not as victims in a far and rising sea but rather as a sea of warriors with the power to rise up, work together, and make their voices heard in order to save the lands and cultures that they cherish.It is estimated that by 2050 as many as 75 million people in the Asia-Pacific region will be forced to migrate from their homelands due to the negative impacts of climate change. While many representations of Pacific Island communities affected by climate change emphasize helplessness, Pacific Islanders have been negotiating identities of empowerment and resilience in both political and cultural arenas. This essay provides an analysis of the messages that Islander performers have chosen to convey through three performance contexts: the 2011 Water Is Rising concert tour, which featured groups from Kiribati, Tokelau, and Tuvalu; 350 Pacific’s Pacific Warrior Campaign, including both the 2013 Warrior Day of Action and the 2014 Canoe Building Day of Action; and the multimedia dramatic performance Moana: The Rising of the Sea, written and produced by Vilsoni Hereniko. Through these three campaigns, we can see that Islanders are actively shaping their identity in the face of climate change, choosing to be seen not as victims in a far and rising sea but rather as a sea of warriors with the power to rise up, work together, and make their voices heard in order to save the lands and cultures that they cherish.

Vulnerability of Southern Plains agriculture to climate change - Steiner, Jean L.; Briske, David D.; Brown, David P.; Rottler, Caitlin M. (Climatic Change, 2017)
Projections of greater interannual and intrannual climate variability, including increasing temperatures, longer and more intense drought periods, and more extreme precipitation events, present growing challenges for agricultural production in the Southern Plains of the USA. We assess agricultural vulnerabilities within this region to support identification and development of adaptation strategies at regional to local scales, where many management decisions are made. Exposure to the synergistic effects of warming, such as fewer and more intense precipitation events and greater overall weather variability, will uniquely affect rain-fed and irrigated cropping, high-value specialty crops, extensive and intensive livestock production, and forestry. Although the sensitivities of various agricultural sectors to climatic stressors can be difficult to identify at regional scales, we summarize that crops irrigated from the Ogallala aquifer possess a high sensitivity; rangeland beef cattle production a low sensitivity; and rain-fed crops, forestry, and specialty crops intermediate sensitivities. Numerous adaptation strategies have been identified, including drought contingency planning, increased soil health, improved forecasts and associated decision support tools, and implementation of policies and financial instruments for risk management. However, the extent to which these strategies are adopted is variable and influenced by both biophysical and socioeconomic considerations. Inadequate local- and regional-scale climate risk and resilience information suggests that climate vulnerability research and climate adaptation approaches need to include bottom-up approaches such as learning networks and peer-to-peer communication.

Southern Plains Assessment of Vulnerability and Preliminary Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Farmers, Ranchers, and Forest Land Owners - Steiner, Jean L.; Schneider, Jeanne M.; Pope, Clay; Pope, Sarah; Ford, Paulette; Steele, Rachel F. (United States Department of Agriculture, 2015)

Evaluación de Vulnerabilidad de las Llanuras Meridionales y Estrategias Preliminares de Adaptación y Mitigación para Agricultores, Ganaderos y Propietarios de Tierras Forestales - Steiner, Jean L.; Schneider, Jeanne M.; Pope, Clay; Pope, Sarah; Ford, Paulette; Steele, Rachel F. (Departamento de Agricultura de Estados Unidos, 2015)

Can PDSI inform extreme precipitation?: An exploration with a 500 year long paleoclimate reconstruction over the U.S - Steinschneider, Scott; Ho, Michelle; Cook, Edward R.; Lall, Upmanu (Water Resources Research, 2016)
Keywords: extreme precipitation reconstruction tree rings paleoclimate ENSO 3344 Paleoclimatology 1817 Extreme events 4313 Extreme events 0473 Paleoclimatology and paleoceanography

Creation of a gilded trap by the high economic value of the Maine lobster fishery - Steneck, R. S.; Hughes, T. P.; Cinner, J. E.; Adger, W. N.; Arnold, S. N.; Berkes, F.; Boudreau, S. A.; Brown, K.; Folke, C.; Gunderson, L.; Olsson, P.; Scheffer, M.; et al. (Conservation Biology, 2011)
Unsustainable fishing simplifies food chains and, as with aquaculture, can result in reliance on a few economically valuable species. This lack of diversity may increase risks of ecological and economic disruptions. Centuries of intense fishing have extirpated most apex predators in the Gulf of Maine (United States and Canada), effectively creating an American lobster (Homarus americanus) monoculture. Over the past 20 years, the economic diversity of marine resources harvested in Maine has declined by almost 70%. Today, over 80% of the value of Maine's fish and seafood landings is from highly abundant lobsters. Inflation-corrected income from lobsters in Maine has steadily increased by nearly 400% since 1985. Fisheries managers, policy makers, and fishers view this as a success. However, such lucrative monocultures increase the social and ecological consequences of future declines in lobsters. In southern New England, disease and stresses related to increases in ocean temperature resulted in more than a 70% decline in lobster abundance, prompting managers to propose closing that fishery. A similar collapse in Maine could fundamentally disrupt the social and economic foundation of its coast. We suggest the current success of Maine's lobster fishery is a gilded trap. Gilded traps are a type of social trap in which collective actions resulting from economically attractive opportunities outweigh concerns over associated social and ecological risks or consequences. Large financial gain creates a strong reinforcing feedback that deepens the trap. Avoiding or escaping gilded traps requires managing for increased biological and economic diversity. This is difficult to do prior to a crisis while financial incentives for maintaining the status quo are large. The long-term challenge is to shift fisheries management away from single species toward integrated social-ecological approaches that diversify local ecosystems, societies, and economies.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents - Stephens, Philip A.; Mason, Lucy R.; Green, Rhys E.; Gregory, Richard D.; Sauer, John R.; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; et al. (Science, 2016)
Changes in climate can cause populations of species to decline, to increase, or to remain steady. Stephens et al. looked across species of common birds in Europe and the United States. Despite many differences between the two regions, expectations about how a species might respond to climate change did predict actual responses. Species predicted to benefit from increasing temperatures, or their associated effects, tended to increase, whereas those predicted to be negatively affected declined. Thus, even across widely varying ecological conditions and communities, climate change can be expected to alter population sizes.Science, this issue p. 84Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.%U http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/352/6281/84.full.pdf

Managing forests and fire in changing climates - Stephens, S. L.; Agee, J. K.; Fulé, P. Z.; North, M. P.; Romme, W. H.; Swetnam, T. W.; Turner, M. G. (Science, 2013)

Temperate and boreal forest mega-fires: Characteristics and challenges - Stephens, Scott L; Burrows, Neil; Buyantuyev, Alexander; Gray, Robert W; Keane, Robert E; Kubian, Rick; Liu, Shirong; Seijo, Francisco; Shu, Lifu; Tolhurst, Kevin G; van Wagtendonk, Jan W (Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2014)
Mega-fires are often defined according to their size and intensity but are more accurately described by their socioeconomic impacts. Three factors – climate change, fire exclusion, and antecedent disturbance, collectively referred to as the “mega-fire triangle” – likely contribute to today's mega-fires. Some characteristics of mega-fires may emulate historical fire regimes and can therefore sustain healthy fire-prone ecosystems, but other attributes decrease ecosystem resiliency. A good example of a program that seeks to mitigate mega-fires is located in Western Australia, where prescribed burning reduces wildfire intensity while conserving ecosystems. Crown-fire-adapted ecosystems are likely at higher risk of frequent mega-fires as a result of climate change, as compared with other ecosystems once subject to frequent less severe fires. Fire and forest managers should recognize that mega-fires will be a part of future wildland fire regimes and should develop strategies to reduce their undesired impacts.

Drought, tree mortality, and wildfire in forests adapted to frequent fire - Stephens, Scott L.; Collins, Brandon M.; Fettig, Christopher J.; Finney, Mark A.; Hoffman, Chad M.; Knapp, Eric E.; North, Malcolm P.; Safford, Hugh; Wayman, Rebecca B. (BioScience, 2018)
Massive tree mortality has occurred rapidly in frequent-fire-adapted forests of the Sierra Nevada, California. This mortality is a product of acute drought compounded by the long-established removal of a key ecosystem process: frequent, low- to moderate-intensity fire. The recent tree mortality has many implications for the future of these forests and the ecological goods and services they provide to society. Future wildfire hazard following this mortality can be generally characterized by decreased crown fire potential and increased surface fire intensity in the short to intermediate term. The scale of present tree mortality is so large that greater potential for “mass fire” exists in the coming decades, driven by the amount and continuity of dry, combustible, large woody material that could produce large, severe fires. For long-term adaptation to climate change, we highlight the importance of moving beyond triage of dead and dying trees to making “green” (live) forests more resilient.
10.1093/biosci/bix146

The effects of forest fuel-reduction treatments in the United States - Stephens, Scott L; McIver, James D; Boerner, Ralph EJ; Fettig, Christopher J; Fontaine, Joseph B; Hartsough, Bruce R; Kennedy, Patricia L; Schwilk, Dylan W (BioScience, 2012)

Wildfire impacts on California spotted owl nesting habitat in the Sierra Nevada - Stephens, Scott L.; Miller, Jay D.; Collins, Brandon M.; North, Malcolm P.; Keane, John J.; Roberts, Susan L. (Ecosphere, 2016)
Keywords: coarse filter conservation fine–filter Jeffrey pine mixed conifer forests ponderosa pine prescribed fire restoration wildfire

Fire treatment effects on vegetation structure, fuels, and potential fire severity in western U.S. forests - Stephens, Scott L.; Moghaddas, Jason J.; Edminster, Carl; Fiedler, Carl E.; Haase, Sally; Harrington, Michael; Keeley, Jon E.; Knapp, Eric E.; McIver, James D.; Metlen, Kerry; Skinner, Carl N.; Youngblood, Andrew (Ecological Applications, 2009)
Keywords: fire hazard fire policy fire suppression fire resistance fuel management fuel treatment mixed conifer ponderosa pine wildfire

Federal forest-fire policy in the United States - Stephens, Scott L.; Ruth, Lawrence W. (Ecological Applications, 2005)
Keywords: fire hazard fire suppression forest policy fuels management U.S. government policy wildfire

Effect of climate change on runoff of Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium from land to surface water - Sterk, Ankie; Schijven, Jack; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; de Nijs, Ton (Water Research, 2016)
Keywords: Climate change Pathogen transport Runoff Quantitative microbial risk analysis Lowland catchments

Culturally grounded indicators of resilience in social-ecological systems - Sterling, Eleanor; Ticktin, Tamara; Morgan, Tē Kipa Kepa; Cullman, Georgina; Alvira, Diana; Andrade, Pelika; Bergamini, Nadia; Betley, Erin; Burrows, Kate; Caillon, Sophie; Claudet, Joachim; Dacks, Rachel; et al. (Environment and Society, 2017)

Sea-ice indicators of polar bear habitat - Stern, Harry L.; Laidre, Kristin L. (The Cryosphere, 2016)

The Economics of Climate Change. The Stern Review - Stern, N. (Cambridge University Press, 2007)

The structure of economic modeling of the potential impacts of climate change: Grafting gross underestimation of risk onto already narrow science models - Stern, Nicholas (Journal of Economic Literature, 2013)

Economics: Current climate models are grossly misleading - Stern, Nicholas (Nature, 2016)

Chinese drought, bread and the Arab Spring - Sternberg, Troy (Applied Geography, 2012)
Keywords: Drought China Egypt Bread Standard precipitation index Arab spring Wheat

State Climate Summary: Hawai‘i - Stevens, Laura E.; Frankson, Rebekah; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Chu, Pao-Shin; Sweet, William (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017)
Keywords: Hawaii assessment

Resilience of a tropical sport fish population to a severe cold event varies across five estuaries in southern Florida - Stevens, P. W.; Blewett, D. A.; Boucek, R. E.; Rehage, J. S.; Winner, B. L.; Young, J. M.; Whittington, J. A.; Paperno, R. (Ecosphere, 2016)
Keywords: Centropomus undecimalis coastal areas common snook disturbance fishes Special Feature: Extreme Cold Spells

Documenting the drought: Mititgating the effects in Oregon - Stevenson, John (The Climate CIRCulator, 2016)

Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change - Stevens‐Rumann, Camille S.; Kemp, Kerry B.; Higuera, Philip E.; Harvey, Brian J.; Rother, Monica T.; Donato, Daniel C.; Morgan, Penelope; Veblen, Thomas T.; Lloret, Francisco (Ecology Letters, 2018)
Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and increased moisture stress on plants. We used a multi‐regional dataset of 1485 sites across 52 wildfires from the US Rocky Mountains to ask if and how changing climate over the last several decades impacted post‐fire tree regeneration, a key indicator of forest resilience. Results highlight significant decreases in tree regeneration in the 21st century. Annual moisture deficits were significantly greater from 2000 to 2015 as compared to 1985–1999, suggesting increasingly unfavourable post‐fire growing conditions, corresponding to significantly lower seedling densities and increased regeneration failure. Dry forests that already occur at the edge of their climatic tolerance are most prone to conversion to non‐forests after wildfires. Major climate‐induced reduction in forest density and extent has important consequences for a myriad of ecosystem services now and in the future.

The Effectiveness of State-Level Policies on Solar Market Development in Different State Contexts - Steward, Darlene; Doris, E.; Krasko, V.; Hillman, D. (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2014)

Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a "business as usual" climate change scenario - Stewart, Iris T.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D. (Climatic Change, 2004)
Spring snowmelt is the most important contribution of many rivers in western North America. If climate changes, this contribution may change. A shift in the timing of springtime snowmelt towards earlier in the year already is observed during 1948–2000 in many western rivers. Streamflow timingchanges for the 1995–2099 period are projected using regression relationsbetween observed streamflow-timing responses in each river, measured by the temporal centroid of streamflow (CT) each year, and local temperature (TI) and precipitation (PI) indices. Under 21st century warming trends predicted by the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) under business-as-usual greenhouse-gas emissions, streamflow timing trends across much of western North America suggest even earlier springtime snowmelt than observed to date. Projected CT changes are consistent with observed rates and directions of change during the past five decades, and are strongest in the Pacific Northwest, Sierra Nevada, and Rocky Mountains, where many rivers eventually run 30–40 daysearlier. The modest PI changes projected by PCM yield minimal CT changes. The responses of CT to the simultaneous effects of projected TI and PI trends are dominated by the TI changes. Regression-based CT projections agree with those from physically-based simulations of rivers in the Pacific Northwest and Sierra Nevada.

Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America - Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D. (Journal of Climate, 2005)
The highly variable timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated basins across western North America is an important consequence, and indicator, of climate fluctuations. Changes in the timing of snowmelt-derived streamflow from 1948 to 2002 were investigated in a network of 302 western North America gauges by examining the center of mass for flow, spring pulse onset dates, and seasonal fractional flows through trend and principal component analyses. Statistical analysis of the streamflow timing measures with Pacific climate indicators identified local and key large-scale processes that govern the regionally coherent parts of the changes and their relative importance.|Widespread and regionally coherent trends toward earlier onsets of springtime snowmelt and streamflow have taken place across most of western North America, affecting an area that is much larger than previously recognized. These timing changes have resulted in increasing fractions of annual flow occurring earlier in the water year by 1-4 weeks. The immediate (or proximal) forcings for the spatially coherent parts of the year-to-year fluctuations and longer-term trends of streamflow timing have been higher winter and spring temperatures. Although these temperature changes are partly controlled by the decadal-scale Pacific climate mode [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)], a separate ani significant part of the variance is associated with a springtime warming trend that spans the PDO phases.
Keywords: UNITED-STATES; CLIMATE-CHANGE; MASS-BALANCE; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; PACIFIC-NORTHWEST; SNOWMELT RUNOFF; SIERRA-NEVADA; RIVER-BASIN; VARIABILITY; PRECIPITATION

21st century increases in the likelihood of extreme hydrologic conditions for the mountainous basins of the Southwestern United States - Stewart, Iris T.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Carrillo, Carlos A.; McIntosh, Russell (Journal of Hydrology, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change Hydrology Mountain streams Extremes Stream temperature Southwestern US

Revisiting the past to foretell the future: Summer temperature and habitat area predict pika extirpations in California - Stewart, Joseph A. E.; Perrine, John D.; Nichols, Lyle B.; Thorne, James H.; Millar, Constance I.; Goehring, Kenneth E.; Massing, Cody P.; Wright, David H. (Journal of Biogeography, 2015)
Keywords: Climate change global warming historical resurvey metapopulation Ochotona princeps pika range shift species distribution modelling talus

Behavioral ecology of jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) in relation to oxygen minimum zones - Stewart, Julia S.; Field, John C.; Markaida, Unai; Gilly, William F. (Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2013)
Keywords: Deep scattering layer Diel vertical migration Diet Diving Humboldt squid Hypoxia Oxygen minimum zone Range expansion Satellite tagging

Hurricane Matthew - Stewart, Stacy R. (National Hurricane Center, 2017)

Changing climate, changing minds: How one Philippine city is preparing for a water-scarce future - Sticklor, Russell (Global Waters, 2016)

Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: Implications of global warming - Stireman, J. O.; Dyer, L. A.; Janzen, D. H.; Singer, M. S.; Lill, J. T.; Marquis, R. J.; Ricklefs, R. E.; Gentry, G. L.; Hallwachs, W.; Coley, P. D.; Barone, J. A.; Greeney, H. F.; et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2005)
Insect outbreaks are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with projected changes in global climate through direct effects of climate change on insect populations and through disruption of community interactions. Although there is much concern about mean changes in global climate, the impact of climatic variability itself on species interactions has been little explored. Here, we compare caterpillar–parasitoid interactions across a broad gradient of climatic variability and find that the combined data in 15 geographically dispersed databases show a decrease in levels of parasitism as climatic variability increases. The dominant contribution to this pattern by relatively specialized parasitoid wasps suggests that climatic variability impairs the ability of parasitoids to track host populations. Given the important role of parasitoids in regulating insect herbivore populations in natural and managed systems, we predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of herbivore outbreaks through a disruption of enemy–herbivore dynamics as climates become more variable.

Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate - Stock, C. A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G. (Biogeosciences, 2014)
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Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity - Stock, Charles A.; John, Jasmin G.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Asch, Rebecca G.; Cheung, William W. L.; Dunne, John P.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Watson, Reg A. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017)
Photosynthesis fuels marine food webs, yet differences in fish catch across globally distributed marine ecosystems far exceed differences in net primary production (NPP). We consider the hypothesis that ecosystem-level variations in pelagic and benthic energy flows from phytoplankton to fish, trophic transfer efficiencies, and fishing effort can quantitatively reconcile this contrast in an energetically consistent manner. To test this hypothesis, we enlist global fish catch data that include previously neglected contributions from small-scale fisheries, a synthesis of global fishing effort, and plankton food web energy flux estimates from a prototype high-resolution global earth system model (ESM). After removing a small number of lightly fished ecosystems, stark interregional differences in fish catch per unit area can be explained (r = 0.79) with an energy-based model that (i) considers dynamic interregional differences in benthic and pelagic energy pathways connecting phytoplankton and fish, (ii) depresses trophic transfer efficiencies in the tropics and, less critically, (iii) associates elevated trophic transfer efficiencies with benthic-predominant systems. Model catch estimates are generally within a factor of 2 of values spanning two orders of magnitude. Climate change projections show that the same macroecological patterns explaining dramatic regional catch differences in the contemporary ocean amplify catch trends, producing changes that may exceed 50% in some regions by the end of the 21st century under high-emissions scenarios. Models failing to resolve these trophodynamic patterns may significantly underestimate regional fisheries catch trends and hinder adaptation to climate change.
Keywords: fisheries catch food webs ocean productivity primary production

Seasonal sea surface temperature anomaly prediction for coastal ecosystems - Stock, Charles A.; Pegion, Kathy; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Alexander, Michael A.; Tommasi, Desiree; Bond, Nicholas A.; Fratantoni, Paula S.; Gudgel, Richard G.; Kristiansen, Trond; O’Brien, Todd D.; Xue, Yan; Yang, Xiasong (Progress in Oceanography, 2015)

Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup - Stockdon, Hilary F.; Holman, Rob A.; Howd, Peter A.; Sallenger, Asbury H., Jr. (Coastal Engineering, 2006)
Keywords: Wave runup Swash Wave setup Remote sensing

Tropical soils and food security: The next 50 years - Stocking, M. A. (Science, 2003)
An appreciation of the dynamism of the links between soil resources and society provides a platform for examining food security over the next 50 years. Interventions to reverse declining trends in food security must recognize the variable resilience and sensitivity of major tropical soil types. In most agro-ecosystems, declining crop yield is exponentially related to loss of soil quality. For the majority smallholder (subsistence) farmers, investments to reverse degradation are primarily driven by private benefit, socially or financially. “Tragedy of the commons” scenarios can be averted by pragmatic local solutions that help farmers to help themselves.

Evaluating opportunities for an increased role of winter crops as adaptation to climate change in dryland cropping systems of the U.S. Inland Pacific Northwest - Stöckle, Claudio O.; Higgins, Stewart; Nelson, Roger; Abatzoglou, John; Huggins, Dave; Pan, William; Karimi, Tina; Antle, John; Eigenbrode, Sanford D.; Brooks, Erin (Climatic Change, 2017)
The long-term sustainability of wheat-based dryland cropping systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) of the United States depends on how these systems adapt to climate change. Climate models project warming with slight increases in winter precipitation but drier summers for the IPNW. These conditions combined with elevated atmospheric CO2, which promote crop growth and improve transpiration-use efficiency, may be beneficial for cropping systems in the IPNW and may provide regional opportunities for agricultural diversification and intensification. Crop modeling simulation under future climatic conditions showed increased wheat productivity for the IPNW for most of the century. Water use by winter wheat was projected to decrease significantly in higher and intermediate precipitation zones and increase slightly in drier locations, but with winter crops utilizing significantly more water overall than spring crops. Crop diversification with inclusion of winter crops other than wheat is a possibility depending on agronomic and economic considerations, while substitution of winter for spring crops appeared feasible only in high precipitation areas. Increased weed pressure, higher pest populations, expanded ranges of biotic stressors, and agronomic, plant breeding, economic, technology, and other factors will influence what production systems eventually prevail under future climatic conditions in the region.

How access to Maine's fisheries has changed over a quarter century: The cumulative effects of licensing on resilience - Stoll, Joshua S.; Beitl, Christine M.; Wilson, James A. (Global Environmental Change, 2016)
Keywords: Access Adaptability Commercial fishing Licenses Gulf of Maine Resilience

Heat-related side-effects of neurological and non-neurological medication may increase heatwave fatalities - Stöllberger, C.; Lutz, W.; Finsterer, J. (European Journal of Neurology, 2009)

Climate change adaptation through urban heat management in Atlanta, Georgia - Stone, B.; Vargo, J.; Liu, P.; Hu, Y. T.; Russell, A. (Environmental Science & Technology, 2013)
This study explores the potential effectiveness of metropolitan land cover change as a climate change adaptation strategy for managing rising temperatures in a large and rapidly warming metropolitan region of the United States. Through the integration of a mesoscale meteorological model with estimated land cover data for the Atlanta, Georgia region in 2010, this study quantifies the influence of extensive land cover change at the periphery of a large metropolitan region on temperature within the city center. The first study to directly model a metropolitan scale heat transfer mechanism, we find both enhanced tree canopy and impervious cover hi the suburban zones of the Atlanta region to produce statistically significant cooling and warming effects in the urban core. Based on these findings, we conclude that urban heat island management both within and beyond the central developed core of large cities may provide an effective climate change adaptation strategy for large metropolitan regions.
Keywords: SE UHI Adaptation urban lULCC urbanization heat

Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities - Stone, Brian Jr.; Vargo, Jason; Liu, Peng; Habeeb, Dana; DeLucia, Anthony; Trail, Marcus; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead (PLOS ONE, 2014)
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Mortality of fishes due to cold at Sanibel Island, Florida, 1886-1936 - Storey, Margaret; Gudger, E. W. (Ecology, 1936)

Forecasting the Impact of Storm Waves and Sea-Level Rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island Within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—A Comparison of Passive Versus Dynamic Inundation Models - Storlazzi, Curt D.; Berkowitz, Paul; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Logan, Joshua B. (U.S. Geological Survey, 2013)
Keywords: Hawaii winds and waves Vulnerability Sea level Ecosystems coastal inundation marine ecosystems

Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change - Storlazzi, Curt D.; Elias, Edwin P. L.; Berkowitz, Paul (Scientific Reports, 2015)
Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world’s low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise. Here we demonstrate that sea-level rise will result in larger waves and higher wave-driven water levels along atoll islands’ shorelines than at present. Numerical model results reveal waves will synergistically interact with sea-level rise, causing twice as much land forecast to be flooded for a given value of sea-level rise than currently predicted by current models that do not take wave-driven water levels into account. Atolls with islands close to the shallow reef crest are more likely to be subjected to greater wave-induced run-up and flooding due to sea-level rise than those with deeper reef crests farther from the islands’ shorelines. It appears that many atoll islands will be flooded annually, salinizing the limited freshwater resources and thus likely forcing inhabitants to abandon their islands in decades, not centuries, as previously thought.
Keywords: Sea level coastal inundation impact atolls migration wind and waves coastal effects

Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands - Storlazzi, Curt D.; Shope, James B.; Erikson, Li H.; Hergermiller, Christine A.; Barnard, Patrick L. (2015)

The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health - Stowell, Jennifer D.; Kim, Young-min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Chang, Howard H.; Liu, Yang (Environment International, 2017)
Keywords: Ozone Climate change Predictive modeling Emissions Pollution Public health Mortality

Economic losses from heat stress by US livestock industries - St-Pierre, N. R.; Cobanov, B.; Schnitkey, G. (Journal of Dairy Science, 2003)

Ocean oxygen minima expansions and their biological impacts - Stramma, Lothar; Schmidtko, Sunke; Levin, Lisa A.; Johnson, Gregory C. (Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 2010)
Keywords: Deoxygenation Oxygen minimum zones Ecosystem changes Hypoxia Tropical ocean Tropical Atlantic Tropical Pacific

Embracing Uncertainty: A Case Study Examination of How Climate Change Is Shifting Water Utility Planning. Prepared for the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA), the American Water Works Association (AWWA), the Water Research Foundation (WRF), and the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies (AMWA) by Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, CO (Karen Raucher and Robert Raucher) and Denver Water, Denver, CO (Laurna Kaatz) - Stratus Consulting and Denver Water (Stratus Consulting, 2015)

Modeled effects of climate change and plant invasion on watershed function across a steep tropical rainfall gradient - Strauch, Ayron M.; Giardina, Christian P.; MacKenzie, Richard A.; Heider, Chris; Giambelluca, Tom W.; Salminen, Ed; Bruland, Gregory L. (Ecosystems, 2017)
Climate change is anticipated to affect freshwater resources, but baseline data on the functioning of tropical watersheds is lacking, limiting efforts that seek to predict how watershed processes, water supply, and streamflow respond to anticipated changes in climate and vegetation change, and to management. To address this data gap, we applied the distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) across 88 watersheds spanning a highly constrained, 4500 mm mean annual rainfall (MAR) gradient on Hawai‘i Island to quantify stream flow at 3-h time-steps for eight years in response to the independent and interactive effects of (1) large observed decrease in MAR; (2) projected warming and altered precipitation; and (3) four scenarios of forest invasion by the high water-demanding non-native tree species Psidium cattleianum. The model captured 62% of variability in measured flow at daily time scales, 95% at monthly time scales, and 98% at annual time scales. We found that low DHSVM modeled flow (Q90) and storm flow (Q10) responses to observed declines in rainfall dwarfed those of projected temperature increase or invasion, with flow decline positively correlated with MAR. As a percentage of streamflow, temperature and invasion reductions were negatively correlated with MAR. By comparison, warming alone had little effect on Q90 or Q10, but both decreased with increasing P. cattleianum cover, and projected effects of declining MAR were accentuated when combined with P. cattleianum and warming. Restoration mitigated some effects of climate warming by increasing stream base flows, with the relative effects of restoration being larger in drier versus wetter watersheds. We conclude that potential changes in climate in tropical environments are likely to exert significant effects on streamflow, but managing vegetation can provide mitigating benefits.

Adapting transportation to climate change on federal lands in Washington State, U.S.A - Strauch, R. L.; Raymond, C. L.; Rochefort, R. M.; Hamlet, A. F.; Lauver, C. (Climatic Change, 2015)
Research scientists collaborated with federal land managers of two national parks and two national forests to conduct a climate change vulnerability assessment and to identify adaptation strategies for a transportation network covering 28,900 km of roads and trails in north-central Washington, U.S.A. The assessment employed observations of sensitivity and response to climatic variability, downscaled climate projections, literature reviews, current management policies and practices, expert knowledge, and stakeholder engagement. Primary pathways for climate impacts focused on projected increases in extreme high flows and flooding, elevated winter soil moisture and landslide hazards, and loss of snowpack. The biggest impacts to roads and trails are expected from temperature-induced changes in hydrologic regimes that enhance autumn flooding and reduce spring snowpack. Projected higher winter soil moisture caused by changes in seasonal precipitation and snow accumulation could reduce slope stability. Earlier snowmelt may lengthen the snow-free season for visitor use and agency operations. Infrastructure age, design, maintenance, location, use, and limited redundancy along with funding policies and management, influence the sensitivities of the transportation system. Vulnerabilities were identified based on when and where these sensitivities to changes in climate may emerge. Adaptation strategies and tactics identified to address these vulnerabilities included: upgrading stream crossing and drainage design, changing use and maintenance, relocating or closing roads and trails, modifying funding policies, and expanding pubic engagement. Many adaptation options are “no regrets” approaches to changes in climate projected for the 2040s and 2080s that can be applied to other resource sectors and mountainous regions.

Texas and the Surging Sea: A Vulnerability Assessment with Projections for Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Risk - Strauss, Ben; Tebaldi, Claudia; Kulp, Scott; Cutter, Susan; Emrich, Chris; Rizza, Daniel; Yawitz, Daniel (Climate Central, 2014)

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level - Strauss, Benjamin H.; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015)
Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3–9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185–1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.

Tidally adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States - Strauss, B.H.; Ziemlinski, R.; Weiss, J.L.; Overpeck, J.T. (Environmental Research Letters, 2012)
Because sea level could rise 1 m or more during the next century, it is important to understand what land, communities and assets may be most at risk from increased flooding and eventual submersion. Employing a recent high-resolution edition of the National Elevation Dataset and using VDatum, a newly available tidal model covering the contiguous US, together with data from the 2010 Census, we quantify low-lying coastal land, housing and population relative to local mean high tide levels, which range from ~0 to 3 m in elevation (North American Vertical Datum of 1988). Previous work at regional to national scales has sometimes equated elevation with the amount of sea level rise, leading to underestimated risk anywhere where the mean high tide elevation exceeds 0 m, and compromising comparisons across regions with different tidal levels. Using our tidally adjusted approach, we estimate the contiguous US population living on land within 1 m of high tide to be 3.7 million. In 544 municipalities and 38 counties, we find that over 10% of the population lives below this line; all told, some 2150 towns and cities have some degree of exposure. At the state level, Florida, Louisiana, California, New York and New Jersey have the largest sub-meter populations. We assess topographic susceptibility of land, housing and population to sea level rise for all coastal states, counties and municipalities, from 0 to 6 m above mean high tide, and find important threat levels for widely distributed communities of every size. We estimate that over 22.9 million Americans live on land within 6 m of local mean high tide.

Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness - Stroeve, J.; Barrett, A.; Serreze, M.; Schweiger, A. (The Cryosphere, 2014)

Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast - Stroeve, Julienne; Holland, Marika M.; Meier, Walt; Scambos, Ted; Serreze, Mark (Geophysical Research Letters, 2007)
Keywords: changing snow and ice dynamics; Marine

Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models - Stroeve, Julienne; Notz, Dirk (Global and Planetary Change, 2015)
Keywords: Arctic sea ice Future climate change Sea ice predictability

Changes in Arctic melt season and implications for sea ice loss - Stroeve, J. C.; Markus, T.; Boisvert, L.; Miller, J.; Barrett, A. (Geophysical Research Letters, 2014)
Keywords: Arctic sea ice 0750 Sea ice 0758 Remote sensing 0766 Thermodynamics

Thermal biases and vulnerability to warming in the world’s marine fauna - Stuart-Smith, Rick D.; Edgar, Graham J.; Barrett, Neville S.; Kininmonth, Stuart J.; Bates, Amanda E. (Nature, 2015)

Professional Societies and Climate Change - Stults, Missy; Meerow, Sara (The Kresge Foundation, 2017)

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Plan: 1854 Ceded Territory Including the Bois Forte, Fond du Lac, and Grand Portage Reservations - Stults, M.; Petersen, S.; Bell, J.; Baule, W.; Nasser, E.; Gibbons, E.; Fougerat, M. (1854 Treaty Authority, 2016)

Looking under the hood of local adaptation plans: Shedding light on the actions prioritized to build local resilience to climate change - Stults, Missy; Woodruff, Sierra C. (Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2017)
In the face of a changing climate, many United States (US) local governments are creating plans to prepare. These plans layout how a community is vulnerable to existing and future changes in climate as well as what actions they propose taking to prepare. The actions included in these plans provide insight into what local governments feel they have the ability to undertake, as well as what actions they believe are important to building resilience. To date, little to no analysis has been conducted on the content of these plans, leaving researchers, practitioners, and those supporting communities with limited understanding of what gaps need to be filled or how best to support locally prioritized climate action. This paper analyzes the content of 43 stand alone climate adaptation plans from US local communities to identify the types of actions proposed and how those actions compare to what researchers indicate the communities should be prioritizing based on regional climate projections. The results indicate that local communities include numerous and varied actions in their adaptation plans and that the majority of communities are selecting actions that are theoretically appropriate given projected changes in regional climate. Yet some types of actions, such as building codes and advocacy, are not being widely used. These results contrast with previous studies, which found that local communities focus primarily on capacity building approaches. Findings also demonstrate that plans rarely contain significant details about how actions will be implemented, raising questions about whether plans will translate into real-world projects.

Using an option pricing approach to evaluate strategic decisions in a rapidly changing climate: Black–Scholes and climate change - Sturm, Matthew; Goldstein, Michael A.; Huntington, Henry; Douglas, Thomas A. (Climatic Change, 2017)

Climate change and forest diseases - Sturrock, R. N.; Frankel, S. J.; Brown, A. V.; Hennon, P. E.; Kliejunas, J. T.; Lewis, K. J.; Worrall, J. J.; Woods, A. J. (Plant Pathology, 2011)
Keywords: forest management forest pathogens plant disease management plant pathogens sudden aspen decline yellow-cedar decline

Identification of effects of regulatory actions on air quality in goods movement corridors in California - Su, Jason G.; Meng, Ying-Ying; Pickett, Melissa; Seto, Edmund; Ritz, Beate; Jerrett, Michael (Environmental Science & Technology, 2016)

Investigating the Environmental and Socioeconomic Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the Galveston Bay, Texas Region [poster] - Subedee, Mukesh; Dotson, Marissa; Gibeaut, James (Harte Research Institute, Texas A&M University, 2016)

Relationships between maximum temperature and heat-related illness across North Carolina, USA - Sugg, Margaret M.; Konrad, Charles E.; Fuhrmann, Christopher M. (International Journal of Biometeorology, 2016)
Heat kills more people than any other weather-related event in the USA, resulting in hundreds of fatalities each year. In North Carolina, heat-related illness accounts for over 2,000 yearly emergency department admissions. In this study, data on emergency department (ED) visits for heat-related illness (HRI) were obtained from the North Carolina Disease Event Tracking and Epidemiologic Collection Tool to identify spatiotemporal relationships between temperature and morbidity across six warm seasons (May–September) from 2007 to 2012. Spatiotemporal relationships are explored across different regions (e.g., coastal plain, rural) and demographics (e.g., gender, age) to determine the differential impact of heat stress on populations. This research reveals that most cases of HRI occur on days with climatologically normal temperatures (e.g., 31 to 35 °C); however, HRI rates increase substantially on days with abnormally high daily maximum temperatures (e.g., 31 to 38 °C). HRI ED visits decreased on days with extreme heat (e.g., greater than 38 °C), suggesting that populations are taking preventative measures during extreme heat and therefore mitigating heat-related illness.

High temporal resolution modeling of the impact of rain, tides, and sea level rise on water table flooding in the Arch Creek basin, Miami-Dade County Florida USA - Sukop, Michael C.; Rogers, Martina; Guannel, Greg; Infanti, Johnna M.; Hagemann, Katherine (Science of the Total Environment, 2018)
Keywords: Groundwater Sea level rise Tides Sunny-day flooding Coastal flooding Repetitive loss flooding

A Risk-Based Flood-Planning Strategy for Vermont’s Roadway Network - Sullivan, James L.; Novak, David C. (University of Vermont Transportation Research Center, 2015)

Predicting the Response of Electricity Load to Climate Change - Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Kalendra, Eric (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2015)

Regional Surface Climate Conditions in CMIP3 and CMIP5 for the United States: Differences, Similarities, and Implications for the U.S. National Climate Assessment - Sun, Liqiang; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Stevens, Laura E.; Buddenberg, Andrew; Dobson, J. Greg; Easterling, David R. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, 2015)

Century-scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans - Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; AghaKouchak, Amir; Duan, Qingyun (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)
Keywords: drought El Niño–Southern Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation 1812 Drought 1833 Hydroclimatology 3305 Climate change and variability 4550 Ocean influence of Earth rotation

The association between fine particulate matter exposure during pregnancy and preterm birth: A meta-analysis - Sun, Xiaoli; Luo, Xiping; Zhao, Chunmei; Chung Ng, Rachel Wai; Lim, Chi Eung Danforn; Zhang, Bo; Liu, Tao (BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 2015)
Although several previous studies have assessed the association of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure during pregnancy with preterm birth, the results have been inconsistent and remain controversial. This meta-analysis aims to quantitatively summarize the association between maternal PM2.5 exposure and preterm birth and to further explore the sources of heterogeneity in findings on this association.

Ocean acidification can mediate biodiversity shifts by changing biogenic habitat - Sunday, Jennifer M.; Fabricius, Katharina E.; Kroeker, Kristy J.; Anderson, Kathryn M.; Brown, Norah E.; Barry, James P.; Connell, Sean D.; Dupont, Sam; Gaylord, Brian; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Klinger, Terrie; Milazzo, Marco; et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)