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Politics latest: Starmer offers biggest clue so far on which taxes might rise in 'painful' October budget

Sir Keir Starmer has given a major Downing Street speech about his plans for government ahead of parliament's return from recess next week, warning of "unpopular decisions" to come in a "painful" budget in October.

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Only 100 spaces left in male prisons

By Tim Baker, political reporter

Just 100 male prison places are left, Sky News understands.

The Labour government has repeatedly accused the Conservatives of neglecting the justice system, leaving prisons at risk of overflowing.

Last month, Sir Keir Starmer green-lit plans for some prisoners to be released after serving 40% of their sentence - rather than the usual 50%.

But arrests in the wake of the recent riots as well as bank holiday events like the Notting Hill carnival, music festivals and football matches have pushed capacity even closer to a maximum.

PM: I can't build a prison by Saturday

Speaking in Downing Street this morning, the prime minister said: "I can't tell you how shocked I was when I discovered the full extent of what [the Conservatives have] done with our prisons.

"And it's going to take time to fix it. I can't build a prison by Saturday.

"We will fix it, we've already taken the measures that are necessary to make sure we can get through the disorder.

"But I shouldn't be sitting in the COBRA room with a list of prison places across the country on a day by day basis, trying to work out how we deal with disorder.

"But that's the position I was put in, and it's frankly not good enough."

Tory party chair denies they left a mess

Sir Keir Starmer has laid a host of charges at the feet of the previous Conservative governments - from breaking the economy and leaving jails with hardly any space, to fuelling populism that fuelled the riots.

Those accusations have just been put to the interim chairman of the now opposition party, Richard Fuller.

"I don't think that's right," he said of the prime minister's claim the Tories had left a ÂŁ22bn "black hole" of unfunded spending promises.

"Obviously, halfway through any financial year, they'll be overspend in some areas, under spends, and others there'll be tax receipts that might be above expectations or not. 

"That's not quite the same as going around desperately trying to find an excuse to have to tax working people in the October budget."

'Nonsense' to say Tories fuelled populism

It was put to him that one of the ways Labour are looking to save cash, scrapping the winter fuel payment for most pensioners, was previously under consideration by the Tories.

He said it would have been a "good policy in the summer time" - not when the energy price cap is about to go up.

And on the Tories fuelling populism, he described that as "nonsense", suggesting the PM was trying to "politicise acts of vandalism".

Mr Fuller did acknowledge a problem with prison places - the Tories were indeed committed to releasing prisoners early too, as Sir Keir chastised Rishi Sunak about at PMQs in May.

Working people bound to be hit by tax rises, says think tank

Despite pledging not to raise income tax, national insurance, and VAT, Labour's budget this autumn will still likely hit working people, an economic think tank has said.

The Institute of Economic Affairs said the prime minister's speech this morning was "softening voters up" for tax rises in the October budget, which could include things like higher taxes on businesses and savings.

'Workers usually lose out'

Sir Keir Starmer hinted earlier that those "with the broadest shoulders" would carry the burden of any tax rises.

Tom Clougherty, executive director at the Institute of Economic Affairs, said: "It is important to remember the incidence of a tax doesn't always fall on the person who pays it. 

"Workers usually lose out when corporation tax is increased, for example. 

"Significant tax increases that don't affect 'working people' are a fantasy." 

Deputy PM visits scene of tower block fire

Firefighters rescued 20 people from a burning tower block in Dagenham, east London, on Monday after it was engulfed in flames.

More than 200 firefighters took part in a "significant search and rescue operation" which involved more than 80 people, including children, being evacuated from their homes.

A further 20 people were said to have been rescued by firefighters after what they described as a "significant building failure".

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, who is also the housing secretary, has visited the scene of the blaze this afternoon.

A fire enforcement notice was issued regarding the building in April 2023.

Among the five issues highlighted was a "failure to provide and/or maintain adequate and clearly indicated emergency routes and exits".

It isn't clear whether it was complied with.

Electoral Dysfunction: Is the chancellor telling us everything?

The speech from the prime minister this morning painted a gloomy picture about the state of the economy.

It follows similar bleak commentary from his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, which most expect mean tax rises are coming in the October budget.

But does the government's narrative stack up?

Ruth Davidson and Beth Rigby are once again joined by the former Labour MP and ex-shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire on the latest episode of Electoral Dysfunction - and the messaging on the economy comes up as they answer listener questions.

👉Click here to follow Electoral Dysfunction wherever you get your podcasts👈

For more information on dates and tickets for our tour, go to https://www.aegpresents.co.uk/event/electoral-dysfunction-live/

Email us at [email protected], post on X to @BethRigby, or send a WhatsApp voice note on 07934 200 444.

Is the government right to profess such gloom?

Tax rises and spending cuts are expected in the budget as the government continues to claim it's been left a "dire inheritance" from the Tories.

But do those claims stack up?

Sky's Ed Conway assesses if Labour are correct to profess such gloom.

No plans for public inquiry into riots

A final line we'll bring you from the prime minister's spokesperson's briefing with journalists this lunchtime.

They were asked about the recent riots and what's being done to address the cause - something our political reporter Serena Barker-Singh suggested the government would need to do earlier.

But Sir Keir Starmer's spokesperson said there was "clearly no reason for these violent scenes".

They said the disorder had "exposed a societal black hole" and that a "long-term agenda" was needed to "fix society".

There are no plans for a public inquiry into the riots, they added.

Sir Keir has characterised the disorder as violence by far-right thugs, pointing to attacks on mosques and migrant hotels, and noting there were rioters who made Nazi salutes and showcased swastikas.

Right to increase public sector pay to end strikes, says No 10

The prime minister might be laying the groundwork for tax rises and spending cuts to "fix" the public finances, but his government has shown it's willing to give pay rises to junior doctors and train drivers.

His spokesperson has said it's the right move to increase public sector pay because it had been "neglected" under the Tories.

Subsequent strikes and problems recruiting staff "costs the economy", said the spokesperson - who also pointed to the fact that any pay increases are recommended by an independent body.

For junior doctors, the government offered a pay rise backdated to the 2023/24 financial year, continuing into 2024/25.

It is structured to equate to an average 22.3% rise over the two years.

For train drivers, it's also backdated. It would mean a 5% rise for 2022/23, 4.75% rise for 2023/24, and 4.5% increase for 2024/25.

The full story on PM's gloomy speech

Speaking from the rose garden in Downing Street this morning, the prime minister gave the biggest hint yet that taxes would be raised in his government's first budget on 30 October. 

He did, however, repeat his election promise that taxes would not go up for "working people".

For our full report on Sir Keir Starmer's speech, read more below from political reporter Tim Baker:

No 10 asked about plans for announcing Larry the cat's death

Larry the cat has been a fixture of 10 Downing Street for years now, outlasting several prime ministers in the process.

He's regularly seen patrolling outside the famous black door, accepting strokes and affection from passers-by, and has been a beacon of stability during some tumultuous times.

'Larry bridges'

A report in The Times said government officials know full well how popular the chief mouser has become - and have drawn up plans for a media blitz to announce his eventual demise.

There's no indication he's unwell, but the tabby is now 17.

The newspaper said officials will say "Larry bridges" when he dies, evoking the plan for when Queen Elizabeth II passed away dubbed Operation London Bridge.

One source said it would have to be handled "sensitively".

The prime minister's spokesperson has now been asked about it, and wasn't giving anything away.

"More details about Larry?" they were asked.

"Don't comment on Larry," was the blunt reply.