Expectant follow-up based on early repeat Papanicolaou (Pap) smear(s) is the most commonly recommended management of patients with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS). In a cervical cytology laboratory in northern Italy, a retrospective study of 1,087 ASCUS patients aged 25-64 was conducted. The primary aim was to assess the actual probability of early repeat Pap smear and associated factors. Univariate comparisons were based on the actuarial method. Multivariate associations were evaluated by Cox regression analysis. The cumulative probability of early repeat Pap smear was 0.11 at 6 mo, 0.29 at 12 mo, and 0.41 at 24 mo, with a multivariate association with screening sector (relative hazard, 3.0 for public offices and 2.8 for private offices vs. organized screening) and previous Pap smear history. Laboratory recommendation, patient age, place of birth, place of residence, marital status, and occupation exerted no independent effect. In conclusion, the probability of early repeat Pap smear was poor and independent of demographic and social factors. The frequency of follow-up failures emerged as a major problem with ASCUS management.