The alveolar fibrinolytic system is altered in acute lung injury (ALI). Levels of the fibrinolytic protease inhibitor, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1), are too low in bronchoalveolar lavage to address its prognostic significance. This study was performed to assess whether PAI-1 antigen in undiluted pulmonary edema fluid levels can identify patients with ALI and predict their outcome. PAI-1 antigen levels in both plasma and edema fluid were higher in ALI compared with hydrostatic edema, and edema fluid PAI-1 values identified those with ALI with high sensitivity and specificity. Both the high plasma and edema fluid PAI-1 antigen values were associated with a higher mortality rate and fewer days of unassisted ventilation in patients with ALI. Differences in PAI-1 activity were concordant with levels of PAI-1 antigen. Although the fibrin-derived alveolar D-dimer levels were strikingly similar in both groups, ALI patients had a higher relative proportion of D-monomer. In conclusion, PAI-1 levels in edema fluid and plasma identify those with ALI that have a poor prognosis. The data indicate that fibrin turnover in early ALI is a consequence of a rapid fibrinogen influx and fractional fibrinolytic inhibition.