[A possible scenario of pandemic influenza in Italy]

Ig Sanita Pubbl. 2006 Mar-Apr;62(2):201-14.
[Article in Italian]

Abstract

An influenza pandemic is expected to occur and will require timely countermeasures. Based on analysis of past influenza epidemics, a deterministic model was developed to estimate the expected number of cases (over 12 million), medical consultations (over 5 million), hospital admissions (over 220,000) and deaths (over 43,000) in the absence of public health interventions. The adoption of available measures would reduce the number of cases by about 22%, hospitalizations by 20%, and deaths by 28%.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • English Abstract

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Disease Outbreaks* / prevention & control
  • Hospitalization
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Influenza, Human / mortality
  • Influenza, Human / prevention & control
  • Influenza, Human / therapy
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Biological
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Risk Factors
  • Vaccination