Quantitative real-time PCR methods are increasingly being applied for the enumeration of toxic cyanobacteria in the environment. However, to justify the use of real-time PCR quantification as a monitoring tool, significant correlations between genotype abundance and actual toxin concentrations are required. In the present study, we aimed to explain the concentrations of three structural variants of the hepatotoxin microcystin (MC) produced by the filamentous cyanobacterium Planktothrix sp., [Asp, butyric acid (Dhb)]-microcystin-RR (where RR means two arginines), [Asp, methyl-dehydro-alanine (Mdha)]-microcystin-RR, and [Asp, Dhb]-microcystin-homotyrosine-arginine (HtyR), by the abundance of the microcystin genotypes encoding their synthesis. Three genotypes of microcystin-producing cyanobacteria (denoted the Dhb, Mdha, and Hty genotypes) in 12 lakes of the Alps in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland from 2005 to 2007 were quantified by means of real-time PCR. Their absolute and relative abundances were related to the concentration of the microcystin structural variants in aliquots determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The total microcystin concentrations varied from 0 to 6.2 microg liter(-1) (mean +/- standard error [SE] of 0.6 +/- 0.1 microg liter(-1)) among the samples, in turn resulting in an average microcystin content in Planktothrix of 3.1 +/- 0.7 microg mm(-3) biovolume. Over a wide range of the population density (0.001 to 3.6 mm(3) liter(-1) Planktothrix biovolume), the Dhb genotype and [Asp, Dhb]-MC-RR were most abundant, while the Hty genotype and MC-HtyR were found to be in the lowest proportion only. In general, there was a significant linear relationship between the abundance/proportion of specific microcystin genotypes and the concentration/proportion of the respective microcystin structural variants on a logarithmic scale. We conclude that estimating the abundance of specific microcystin genotypes by quantitative real-time PCR is useful for predicting the concentration of microcystin variants in water.