The structure of Caribbean coral reef communities has been altered by numerous anthropogenic and natural stressors. Demographic studies of key functional groups have furthered efforts to describe and understand these changes. Little is known, however, about the demographics of sponges on coral reefs, despite their abundance and the important functions they perform (e.g., increased habitat complexity, water filtration). We have monitored permanent plots on reefs off Key Largo, Florida, USA, to study the demography of a particularly important species, the giant barrel sponge, Xestospongia muta. From 2000 to 2006, population densities of X. muta significantly increased at sites on Conch Reef by a mean of 46% (range = 16-108%) and on Pickles Reef by a mean of 33%. In 2006, densities of X. muta on Conch Reef ranged from 0.134 to 0.277 sponges/m2, and mean sponge volume was 1488 cm3/m2, with the largest size class of sponges constituting 75% of the total volume. Increased population density resulted from a significant increase in the number of sponges in the smallest size class. Recruit survival did not significantly change through time; however, a significant interaction between season and year on recruitment suggests that large recruitment pulses are driving population increases. Mean yearly recruitment rates ranged from 0.011 to 0.025 recruits x m(-2) x yr(-1), with pulses as high as 0.036 recruits/m2. To explore the demographic processes behind the population increase and determine future population growth of X. muta under present reef conditions, a stage-based matrix modeling approach was used. Variable recruitment pulses and mortality events were hypothesized to be large determinants of the demographic patterns observed for X. muta. Elasticity and life table response analysis revealed that survival of individuals in the largest size class has the greatest effect on population growth. Projections indicate that populations of X. muta will continue to increase under present conditions; however population growth may be negatively affected by continued mortality of the largest individuals from a recently described pathogenic syndrome.