Predictors of late recurrence of atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation

Background: To predict the recurrence of atrial fibrillation is important for selecting patients who will be undergoing catheter ablation, several studies respectively evaluated the risk factor of the recurrence of atrial fibrillation post-ablation.

Objective: To investigate the factors predicting the recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after catheter ablation.

Methods: 186 patients (55.12 ± 12.06 years, 123 male) including 161 paroxysmal AF and 25 non-paroxysmal AF who underwent catheter ablation were studied. Clinical datum before and during ablation were recorded, and systematic follow-up was conducted after ablation. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to determine the factors predicting late recurrence of AF (LRAF) which means AF recurrence after 3 months.

Results: There were 47(25.27%) patients who experienced LRAF. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was carried out to the parameters that P<0.10 in the univariate analysis, which includes overweight/obesity, metabolic syndrome (MetS), AF categories, duration of AF history, left atrial diameter (LAD), diabetes mellitus, ablation strategies, procedural failure and early recurrence of AF after ablation (ERAF). Ultimately, the results demonstrated that overweight/obesity (OR=4.71, 95% CI 1.71-12.98, P=0.003), MetS (OR=4.41, 95% CI 1.56-12.46, P=0.005), procedural failure (OR=58.34, 95% CI 6.83-498.34, P<0.001), and ERAF (OR=3.18, 95% CI 1.07-9.44, P=0.037) were independent predictors of AF recurrence after ablation.

Conclusion: Overweight/obesity, metabolic syndrome, procedural failure and ERAF are independent predictors of late recurrence of atrial fibrillation in this group of patients.