The aims of this study were to investigate how the Peer Assessment Rating (PAR index) predicts the perceived need for orthodontic treatment of mandibular protrusion in Japanese subjects, and to elucidate whether the perceived need for treatment was affected by the raters' orthodontic expertise. The subjects were 110 dental students and 32 orthodontists. We showed them casts of 10 untreated mandibular protrusion cases and gave them a questionnaire in which they had to describe their perceptions of the orthodontic treatment needs using a 10-point visual analog scale (VAS). The PAR index was used for cast evaluation. The PAR index scores showed significant correlations with the VAS scores. In casts with a low PAR score, there were no differences in the VAS scores between orthodontists and students. In casts with a PAR score greater than 23, the orthodontists perceived a significantly greater treatment need than did the students;for scores of 22, 28, and 29, students who had received orthodontic treatment themselves were more likely to perceive the treatment need. The PAR index is a good clinical predictor for assessing the perceived treatment needs for mandibular protrusion. Perception of the need for orthodontic treatment for mandibular protrusion depended on the degree of orthodontic expertise in Japanese subjects.