Geographic factors are associated with increased risk for out-of hospital cardiac arrests and provision of bystander cardio-pulmonary resuscitation in Singapore

Background: Bystander Cardio-Pulmonary Resuscitation (BCPR) can improve survival for Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA). This study aimed to investigate the geographic variation of BCPR provision and survival to discharge outcomes among residential OHCA cases, evaluate this variation with individual and population characteristics and identify high-risk residential areas with low relative risk (RR) of BCPR and high RR of OHCA at the development guide plan (DGP) census tract levels in Singapore.

Methods: This was a retrospective, secondary analysis of two prospectively-collected registries in Singapore from 2001 to 2011. We used Bayesian conditional autoregressive spatial models to examine predictors at the DGP level and calculate smoothed RR to identify high-risk areas. We used multi-level mixed-effects logistic regression models to examine the independent effects of individual and neighborhood factors.

Results: We found a total of 3942 OHCA with a BCPR rate of 20.3% and a survival to discharge rate of 1.9% and 3578 cases eligible for BCPR. After adjusting for age, witnessed status, presumed cardiac etiology and longer response time, the risk of BCPR provision significantly increased by 0.02% for every 1% increase in the proportion of household size 5 and above in the DGP area (odds ratio 1.02, 95%CI=1.002-1.038, p<0.026). We identified 10 high-risk residential areas with low RR of BCPR and high RR of OHCA.

Conclusion: This study informed that neighborhood household size could have played a significant role in the provision of BCPR and occurrence of high-risk areas. It demonstrates the public health potential of combining geospatial and epidemiological analysis for improving health.