Late systolic central hypertension as a predictor of incident heart failure: the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

J Am Heart Assoc. 2015 Mar 3;4(3):e001335. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.114.001335.

Abstract

Background: Experimental studies demonstrate that high aortic pressure in late systole relative to early systole causes greater myocardial remodeling and dysfunction, for any given absolute peak systolic pressure.

Methods and results: We tested the hypothesis that late systolic hypertension, defined as the ratio of late (last one third of systole) to early (first two thirds of systole) pressure-time integrals (PTI) of the aortic pressure waveform, independently predicts incident heart failure (HF) in the general population. Aortic pressure waveforms were derived from a generalized transfer function applied to the radial pressure waveform recorded noninvasively from 6124 adults. The late/early systolic PTI ratio (L/E(SPTI)) was assessed as a predictor of incident HF during median 8.5 years of follow-up. The L/E(SPTI) was predictive of incident HF (hazard ratio per 1% increase=1.22; 95% CI=1.15 to 1.29; P<0.0001) even after adjustment for established risk factors for HF (HR=1.23; 95% CI=1.14 to 1.32: P<0.0001). In a multivariate model that included brachial systolic and diastolic blood pressure and other standard risk factors of HF, L/E(SPTI) was the modifiable factor associated with the greatest improvements in model performance. A high L/E(SPTI) (>58.38%) was more predictive of HF than the presence of hypertension. After adjustment for each other and various predictors of HF, the HR associated with hypertension was 1.39 (95% CI=0.86 to 2.23; P=0.18), whereas the HR associated with a high L/E was 2.31 (95% CI=1.52 to 3.49; P<0.0001).

Conclusions: Independently of the absolute level of peak pressure, late systolic hypertension is strongly associated with incident HF in the general population.

Keywords: arterial hemodynamics; heart failure; late systolic load; left ventricular afterload.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Observational Study
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Aorta / physiopathology*
  • Arterial Pressure*
  • Brachial Artery / physiopathology
  • Diastole
  • Female
  • Heart Failure / diagnosis
  • Heart Failure / ethnology*
  • Heart Failure / physiopathology
  • Humans
  • Hypertension / diagnosis
  • Hypertension / ethnology*
  • Hypertension / physiopathology
  • Incidence
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Factors
  • Systole
  • Time Factors
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Ventricular Function, Left