A prognostic score to identify low-risk outpatients with acute deep vein thrombosis in the upper extremity

J Thromb Haemost. 2015 Jul;13(7):1274-8. doi: 10.1111/jth.13008. Epub 2015 Jun 15.

Abstract

Background: No studies have identified which patients with upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) are at low risk for adverse events within the first week of therapy.

Methods: We used data from Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica to explore in patients with upper-extremity DVT a prognostic score that correctly identified patients with lower limb DVT at low risk for pulmonary embolism, major bleeding, or death within the first week.

Results: As of December 2014, 1135 outpatients with upper-extremity DVT were recruited. Of these, 515 (45%) were treated at home. During the first week, three patients (0.26%) experienced pulmonary embolism, two (0.18%) had major bleeding, and four (0.35%) died. We assigned 1 point to patients with chronic heart failure, creatinine clearance levels 30-60 mL min(-1) , recent bleeding, abnormal platelet count, recent immobility, or cancer without metastases; 2 points to those with metastatic cancer; and 3 points to those with creatinine clearance levels < 30 mL min(-1) . Overall, 759 (67%) patients scored ≤ 1 point and were considered to be at low risk. The rate of the composite outcome within the first week was 0.26% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.004-0.87) in patients at low risk and 1.86% (95% CI 0.81-3.68) in the remaining patients. C-statistics was 0.73 (95% CI 0.57-0.88). Net reclassification improvement was 22%, and integrated discrimination improvement was 0.0055.

Conclusions: Using six easily available variables, we identified outpatients with upper-extremity DVT at low risk for adverse events within the first week. These data may help to safely treat more patients at home.

Keywords: anticoagulant therapy; deep vein thrombosis; hospital; outcome; outpatients; upper extremity.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Anticoagulants / adverse effects
  • Kanada
  • Decision Support Techniques*
  • Europa
  • Female
  • Hemorrhage / chemically induced
  • Humans
  • Israel
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Outpatients*
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Pulmonary Embolism / diagnosis
  • Pulmonary Embolism / etiology*
  • Pulmonary Embolism / mortality
  • Pulmonary Embolism / prevention & control
  • Registries
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • South America
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Upper Extremity Deep Vein Thrombosis / diagnosis
  • Upper Extremity Deep Vein Thrombosis / etiology*
  • Upper Extremity Deep Vein Thrombosis / mortality
  • Upper Extremity Deep Vein Thrombosis / therapy

Substances

  • Anticoagulants