Segmented polynomials for incidence rate estimation from prevalence data

Stat Med. 2017 Jan 30;36(2):334-344. doi: 10.1002/sim.7130. Epub 2016 Sep 26.

Abstract

The study considers the problem of estimating incidence of a non remissible infection (or disease) with possibly differential mortality using data from a(several) cross-sectional prevalence survey(s). Fitting segmented polynomial models is proposed to estimate the incidence as a function of age, using the maximum likelihood method. The approach allows automatic search for optimal position of knots, and model selection is performed using the Akaike information criterion. The method is applied to simulated data and to estimate HIV incidence among men in Zimbabwe using data from both the NIMH Project Accept (HPTN 043) and Zimbabwe Demographic Health Surveys (2005-2006). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Keywords: incidence rate; maximum likelihood estimation; model selection; mortality; prevalence; segmented polynomials.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Intramural

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Biostatistics
  • Computer Simulation
  • Confidence Intervals
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence*
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Male
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Prevalence*
  • Young Adult
  • Zimbabwe / epidemiology