Background: Direct health effects of antibiotic resistance are difficult to assess. We quantified the risk of recurrent bacteremia associated with resistance.
Methods: We extracted antimicrobial susceptibility testing data on blood isolates from the Dutch surveillance system for antimicrobial resistance between 2008 and 2017. First and first recurrent (4-30 days) bacteremia episodes were categorized as susceptible, single nonsusceptible, or co-nonsusceptible to third-generation cephalosporins without or with carbapenems (Enterobacteriaceae), ceftazidime without or with carbapenems (Pseudomonas species), aminopenicillins without or with vancomycin (Enterococcus species), or as methicillin-sensitive/-resistant S. aureus (MSSA/MRSA). We calculated risks of recurrent bacteremia after nonsusceptible vs susceptible first bacteremia, estimated the crude population attributable effect of resistance for the Netherlands, and calculated risks of nonsusceptible recurrent bacteremia after a susceptible first episode.
Results: Risk ratios for recurrent bacteremia after a single- and co-nonsusceptible first episode, respectively, vs susceptible first episode, were 1.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-2.0) and 5.2 (95% CI, 2.1-12.4) for Enterobacteriaceae, 1.3 (95% CI, 0.5-3.1) and 5.0 (95% CI, 2.9-8.5) for Pseudomonas species, 1.4 (95% CI, 1.2-1.7) and 1.6 (95% CI, 0.6-4.2) for Enterococcus species, and 1.6 (95% CI, 1.1-2.4) for MRSA vs MSSA. The estimated population annual number of recurrent bacteremias associated with nonsusceptibility was 40. The risk of nonsusceptible recurrent bacteremia after a susceptible first episode was at most 0.4% (Pseudomonas species).
Conclusions: Although antibiotic nonsusceptibility was consistently associated with higher risks of recurrent bacteremia, the estimated annual number of additional recurrent episodes in the Netherlands (40) was rather limited.