Development and future deployment of a 5 years allograft survival model for kidney transplantation

Aim: Identifying kidney transplant patients at highest risk for graft loss prior to loss may allow for effective interventions to improve 5 years survival.

Methods: We performed a 10 years retrospective cohort study of adult kidney transplant recipients (n = 1747). We acquired data from electronic health records, United Network of Organ Sharing, social determinants of health, natural language processing data extraction, and real-time capture of dynamically evolving clinical data obtained within 1 year of transplant; from which we developed a 5 years graft survival model.

Results: Total of 1439 met eligibility; 265 (18.4%) of them experienced graft loss by 5 years. Graft loss patients were characterized by: older age, being African-American, diabetic, unemployed, smokers, having marginal donor kidneys and cardiovascular comorbidities. Predictive dynamic variables included: low mean blood pressure, higher pulse pressures, higher heart rate, anaemia, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate peak, increased tacrolimus variability, rejection and readmissions. This Big Data analysis generated a 5 years graft loss model with an 82% predictive capacity, versus 66% using baseline United Network of Organ Sharing data alone.

Conclusion: Our analysis yielded a 5 years graft loss model demonstrating superior predictive capacity compared with United Network of Organ Sharing data alone, allowing post-transplant individualized risk-assessed care prior to transitioning back to community care.