Decomposition analysis of China's CO₂ emissions (2000-2016) and scenario analysis of its carbon intensity targets in 2020 and 2030

To address the unprecedented increase in China's CO₂ emissions over the past decades, the Chinese government has implemented many policies that are aimed at reducing carbon intensity. Applying the LMDI method, this study conducts a decomposition analysis of the drivers influencing China's CO₂ emissions by examining the details of 41 industry sub-sectors during 2000-2016; further, it predicts the carbon intensity reduction potential in 2020 and 2030 based on various official policies and documents. We conclude that energy intensity was the primary indicator that reduced CO₂ emissions, whereas the effects of carbon intensity, energy mix, and industrial structure were relatively minor. During the study period, the effect of industrial structure optimization on the change in CO₂ emissions shifted from the promotion of emissions to their suppression, with the inhibiting influence becoming greater over time. Finally, scenario analysis indicated that CO₂ intensity would decrease 21.5% by 2020 compared to the 2015 level, and the reduction target of 65% would be achieved fully in 2030 in the outlook scenario. Energy intensity is the largest contributor to the decrease in CO₂ emissions during 2016-2020, whereas industrial structure optimization shows the greatest potential for environmental improvement during 2020-2030. This paper concludes that more stringent policies are essential to reducing CO₂ emissions in the near future.