Risk factors associated with COVID-19 infection: a retrospective cohort study based on contacts tracing

Emerg Microbes Infect. 2020 Dec;9(1):1546-1553. doi: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1787799.

Abstract

This study aimed to estimate the attack rates, and identify the risk factors of COVID-19 infection. Based on a retrospective cohort study, we investigated 11,580 contacts of COVID-19 cases in Guangdong Province from 10 January to 15 March 2020. All contacts were tested by RT-PCR to detect their infection of SARS-COV-2. Attack rates by characteristics were calculated. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk factors of infection for COVID-19. A total of 515 of 11,580 contacts were identified to be infected with SARS-COV-2. Compared to young adults aged 20-29 years, the infected risk was higher in children (RR: 2.59, 95%CI: 1.79-3.76), and old people aged 60-69 years (RR: 5.29, 95%CI: 3.76-7.46). Females also had higher infected risk (RR: 1.66, 95%CI: 1.39-2.00). People having close relationship with index cases encountered higher infected risk (RR for spouse: 20.68, 95%CI: 14.28-29.95; RR for non-spouse family members: 9.55, 95%CI: 6.73-13.55; RR for close relatives: 5.90, 95%CI: 4.06-8.59). Moreover, contacts exposed to index case in symptomatic period (RR: 2.15, 95%CI: 1.67-2.79), with critically severe symptoms (RR: 1.61, 95%CI: 1.00-2.57), with symptoms of dizzy (RR: 1.58, 95%CI: 1.08-2.30), myalgia (RR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.15-1.94), and chill (RR: 1.42, 95%CI: 1.05-1.92) had higher infected risks. Children, old people, females, and family members are susceptible of COVID-19 infection, while index cases in the incubation period had lower contagiousness. Our findings will be helpful for developing targeted prevention and control strategies to combat the worldwide pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; China; attack rate; close contact; risk factors.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • COVID-19
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • China
  • Cohort Studies
  • Contact Tracing*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
  • Disease Susceptibility
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission*
  • Quarantine
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Young Adult

Grants and funding

This study was supported by Key-Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province #1 under [grant number 2019B111103001]; the Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province#2 under [grant number 2018B020207006, 2019B020208005]; the National Key Research and Development Program of China#3 under [grant number 2018YFA0606200, 2018YFA0606202]; and Guangzhou Science and Technology Plan Project#4 under [grant number 201804010383].