Fatality rate and predictors of mortality in an Italian cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Sci Rep. 2020 Nov 26;10(1):20731. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77698-4.

Abstract

Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO2/FiO2 ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk.

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / mortality*
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • Comorbidity
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Length of Stay
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pandemics*
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction
  • Risk Factors
  • SARS-CoV-2 / genetics*
  • Sex Factors
  • Smoking
  • Survival Rate