Wasted Children and Wasted Time: A Challenge to Meeting the Nutrition Sustainable Development Goals with a High Economic Impact to Ethiopia

Despite some progress in the reduction of the prevalence of child wasting in Ethiopia, the pace of progress has been slow. Despite millions of dollars being spent on the treatment of wasting every year, the increased frequency and magnitude of environmental and anthropogenic shocks has halted progress. This study aimed to present the trends of child wasting in Ethiopia and estimate the economic losses related to the slow progress towards meeting the sustainable development goal (SDG) targets. Weather shocks and civil unrest between 2015 and 2018 have halted progress. We used a "consequence model" to apply the coefficient risk-deficit on economic losses established in the global scientific literature to the Ethiopian health, demographic, and economic data to estimate economic losses related to child wasting. The impact of wasting on the national economy of Ethiopia is estimated to be 157.8-230.2 million United States dollars (USD), annually. The greatest contributor to the economic burden (43.5-63.5% of the burden depending on the discount rate) is the cost of supplies and human resources to treat wasting. To reach the 2030 SDGs, Ethiopia should increase its annual average reduction rate (AARR) in the numbers of child (<59 months) wasting from 0.1% to 5.4%. This will avert the wasting in 7.9 million cases and prevent additional economic costs of up to 803.7 million USD over the next decade. Increasing the reach of therapeutic interventions, but also identifying and implementing wasting prevention interventions, will be critical if the SDG targets are to be met and the opportunity of the children to thrive is not to be wasted.