Vitamin A supplementation and estimated number of averted child deaths in Ethiopia: 15 years in practice (2005-2019)

Vitamin A supplementation (VAS), started as a short-term strategy pending dietary improvements, has been implemented in Ethiopia for the last 15 years. We aimed to describe the trends in VAS coverage and estimated the associated reductions in child mortality. VAS coverage data obtained from the District Health Information System and the Demographic and Health Surveys were linked to child mortality data from the United Nations Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME). The number of child deaths averted was modelled assuming 12% and 24% reductions in all-cause mortality. From 2006 to 2011, VAS was delivered through campaigns, and coverage was above 85%. However, from 2011 onwards, VAS delivery was integrated to the routine health system, and the coverage declined to <60% with significant disparities by wealth quintile and rural-urban residence. VAS has saved between 167,563 to 376,030 child lives (2005-2019), but additional lives (>42,000) could have been saved with a universal coverage (95%). Inconsistent supply of vitamin A capsules, but more importantly, low access to health care, and the limited contact opportunities for children after 24 months may have contributed to the declining VAS coverage. Any changes in target or scale-up should thus consider these spatial and socioeconomic variations. Increasing the coverage of VAS and closing the equity gap in access to nutrition services is critical. However, with alternative programmes like vitamin A fortification being set-up, the benefits and safety of VAS need to be closely monitored, particularly in areas where there will be overlap.