Bowel ultrasound enhances predictive value based on clinical indicators: a scoring system for moderate-to-severe endoscopic activities in patients with ulcerative colitis

Background and aim: The aim was to assess non-invasive factors among clinical features, laboratory, and bowel ultrasound (BUS) characteristics and to develop a scoring system to predict endoscopic activities for ulcerative colitis (UC) patients.

Methods: We performed a retrospective study collecting UC patients between January 2015 to September 2020. Logistic regression was performed to predict moderate-to-severe endoscopic activities, defined as endoscopic Mayo score ⩾2. Model performance was described with discrimination and calibration ability and validated by internal and external methods.

Results: A total of 103 and 29 patients were enrolled in the modeling and validation groups, respectively. Stool frequency ⩾5 times/day, hematochezia, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and colonic wall flow in BUS were included into two predictive models for endoscopic activities, both with good discrimination ability [Area under curve (AUC) 0.879 and 0.882, p < 0.001] and a sensitivity of 76.7% and specificity of 92.3%, which showed an adequate calibration ability by using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.14 and 0.07). The external validation displayed consistent results with the above mentioned. Nomograms were also established for these models.

Conclusion: We developed predictive models for endoscopic disease activities by using noninvasive factors based on stool frequency, hematochezia, ESR, and colonic wall blood flow in BUS. These models performed well in the internal and external validation.