Revealing mechanisms of infectious disease spread through empirical contact networks

PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Dec 20;17(12):e1009604. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009604. eCollection 2021 Dec.

Abstract

The spread of pathogens fundamentally depends on the underlying contacts between individuals. Modeling the dynamics of infectious disease spread through contact networks, however, can be challenging due to limited knowledge of how an infectious disease spreads and its transmission rate. We developed a novel statistical tool, INoDS (Identifying contact Networks of infectious Disease Spread) that estimates the transmission rate of an infectious disease outbreak, establishes epidemiological relevance of a contact network in explaining the observed pattern of infectious disease spread and enables model comparison between different contact network hypotheses. We show that our tool is robust to incomplete data and can be easily applied to datasets where infection timings of individuals are unknown. We tested the reliability of INoDS using simulation experiments of disease spread on a synthetic contact network and find that it is robust to incomplete data and is reliable under different settings of network dynamics and disease contagiousness compared with previous approaches. We demonstrate the applicability of our method in two host-pathogen systems: Crithidia bombi in bumblebee colonies and Salmonella in wild Australian sleepy lizard populations. INoDS thus provides a novel and reliable statistical tool for identifying transmission pathways of infectious disease spread. In addition, application of INoDS extends to understanding the spread of novel or emerging infectious disease, an alternative approach to laboratory transmission experiments, and overcoming common data-collection constraints.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Animals
  • Bees / microbiology
  • Communicable Diseases / epidemiology
  • Communicable Diseases / transmission*
  • Computational Biology
  • Euglenozoa Infections / epidemiology
  • Euglenozoa Infections / transmission
  • Euglenozoa Infections / veterinary
  • Lizards / parasitology
  • Models, Biological*
  • Salmonella Infections, Animal / epidemiology
  • Salmonella Infections, Animal / transmission
  • Social Behavior

Grants and funding

SB and PS was supported by the National Science Foundation Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases Grant 1216054 (https://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=5269). STL was supported by an Australian Research Council DECRA fellowship (DE170101132, https://www.arc.gov.au/grants/discovery-program/discovery-early-career-researcher-award-decra), and an ARC grant to CM Bull (DP130100145), which funded the sleepy lizard project (https://www.arc.gov.au/grants). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.