Clinical and therapeutic variables may influence the association between infarct core predicted by CT perfusion and clinical outcome in acute stroke

Objectives: After an acute ischemic stroke, patients with a large CT perfusion (CTP) predicted infarct core (pIC) have poor clinical outcome. However, previous research suggests that this relationship may be relevant for subgroups of patients determined by pretreatment and treatment-related variables while negligible for others. We aimed to identify these variables.

Methods: We included a cohort of 828 patients with acute proximal carotid arterial occlusions imaged with a whole-brain CTP within 8 h from stroke onset. pIC was computed on CTP Maps (cerebral blood flow < 30%), and poor clinical outcome was defined as a 90-day modified Rankin Scale score > 2. Potential mediators of the association between pIC and clinical outcome were evaluated through first-order and advanced interaction analyses in the derivation cohort (n = 654) for obtaining a prediction model. The derived model was further validated in an independent cohort (n = 174).

Results: The volume of pIC was significantly associated with poor clinical outcome (OR = 2.19, 95% CI = 1.73 - 2.78, p < 0.001). The strength of this association depended on baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale, glucose levels, the use of thrombectomy, and the interaction of age with thrombectomy. The model combining these variables showed good discrimination for predicting clinical outcome in both the derivation cohort and validation cohorts (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.780 (95% CI = 0.746-0.815) and 0.782 (95% CI = 0.715-0.850), respectively).

Conclusions: In patients imaged within 8 h from stroke onset, the association between pIC and clinical outcome is significantly modified by baseline and therapeutic variables. These variables deserve consideration when evaluating the prognostic relevance of pIC.

Key points: •The volume of CT perfusion (CTP) predicted infarct core (pIC) is associated with poor clinical outcome in acute ischemic stroke imaged within 8 h of onset. •The relationship between pIC and clinical outcome may be modified by baseline clinical severity, glucose levels, thrombectomy use, and the interaction of age with thrombectomy. •CTP pIC should be evaluated in an individual basis for predicting clinical outcome in patients imaged within 8 h from stroke onset.