External validation of the CRAX2MACE model

Background: Single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion is frequently used to predict risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We performed an external validation of the CRAX2MACE score, developed to estimate 2-year risk of MACE in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD).

Methods: Patients who underwent clinically indicated SPECT with available follow-up for MACE were included (N = 2,985). The prediction performance for MACE (revascularization, myocardial infarction, or death) within 2 years for CRAX2MACE was compared with stress and ischemic total perfusion deficit (TPD) using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed with calibration plots, Brier score, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results: MACE occurred within 2 years in 243 (8.1%) patients. The AUC for CRAX2MACE (0.710, 95% CI 0.677-0.743) was significantly higher compared to stress TPD (AUC 0.669, 95% CI 0.632-0.706, P = .010) and ischemic TPD (AUC 0.664, 95% CI 0.627-0.700, P < .001). The model had acceptable goodness-of-fit (P = .103) and was well-calibrated with Brier score of 0.071.

Conclusion: CRAX2MACE had higher predictive performance for 2-year MACE than quantitative perfusion in an external population. The current model is simple to use and could be implemented to assist physicians when estimating patient risk.