Widespread occurrence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Ontario, Canada, and predicted habitat suitability for the emerging Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans

Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungi Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, is associated with massive amphibian mortality events worldwide and with some species' extinctions. Previous ecological niche models suggest that B. dendrobatidis is not well-suited to northern, temperate climates, but these predictions have often relied on datasets in which northern latitudes are underrepresented. Recent northern detections of B. dendrobatidis suggest that these models may have underestimated the suitability of higher latitudes for this fungus. We used qPCR to test for B. dendrobatidis in 1,041 non-invasive epithelial swab samples from 18 species of amphibians collected across 735,345 km² in Ontario and Akimiski Island (Nunavut), Canada. We detected the pathogen in 113 samples (10.9%) from 11 species. Only one specimen exhibited potential clinical signs of disease. We used these data to produce six Species Distribution Models of B. dendrobatidis, which classified half of the study area as potential habitat for the fungus. We also tested each sample for B. salamandrivorans, an emerging pathogen that is causing alarming declines in European salamanders, but is not yet detected in North America. We did not detect B. salamandrivorans in any of the samples, providing a baseline for future surveillance. We assessed the potential risk of future introduction by comparing salamander richness to temperature-dependent mortality, predicted by a previous exposure study. Areas with the highest species diversity and predicted mortality risk extended 60,530 km² across southern Ontario, highlighting the potential threat B. salamandrivorans poses to northern Nearctic amphibians. Preventing initial introduction will require coordinated, transboundary regulation of trade in amphibians (including frogs that can carry and disperse B. salamandrivorans), and surveillance of the pathways of introduction (e.g., water and wildlife). Our results can inform surveillance for both pathogens and efforts to mitigate the spread of chytridiomycosis through wild populations.