Mortality by cause of death during year 1 of the COVID-19 pandemic in a cohort of older adults from Baltimore Maryland who have injected drugs

Background: In 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, overdose deaths increased. However, no studies have characterized changes in mortality during the pandemic in a well-characterized cohort of people who use drugs in active follow-up at the time of pandemic onset.

Design: We compared all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the first year of the pandemic (Mar-Dec 2020) to the five years preceding (Jan 2015-Feb 2020), among participants in the AIDS Linked to the IntraVenous Experience (ALIVE) study: a community-recruited cohort of adults from Baltimore who have injected drugs. 3510 participants contributed 17,498 person-years [py] of follow-up time. Cause and dates of death were ascertained through the National Death Index. Comparisons were made for the full cohort and within subgroups with potentially differential levels of vulnerability.

Results: All-cause mortality in 2020 was 39.6 per 1000 py, as compared to 37.2 per 1000 py pre- pandemic (Adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio = 1.09, 95%: confidence interval: 0.84-1.41). Increases were mostly attributable to chronic disease deaths; injury/poisoning deaths did not increase. No pre-post differences were statistically significant.

Conclusion: In this exploratory analysis of an older cohort of urban-dwelling adults who have injected drugs, mortality changes during the first year of the pandemic differed from national trends and varied across potentially vulnerable subgroups. More research is needed to understand determinants of increased risk of mortality during the pandemic among subgroups of people who use drugs.