Quantifying Antibody Persistence After a Single Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine Ad26.COV2.S in Humans Using a Mechanistic Modeling and Simulation Approach

Understanding persistence of humoral immune responses elicited by vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is critical for informing the duration of protection and appropriate booster timing. We developed a mechanistic model to characterize the time course of humoral immune responses in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)-seronegative adults after primary vaccination with the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine, Ad26.COV2.S. The persistence of antibody responses was quantified through mechanistic modeling-based simulations. Two biomarkers of humoral immune responses were examined: SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies determined by wild-type virus neutralization assay (wtVNA) and spike protein-binding antibodies determined by indirect spike protein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (S-ELISA). The persistence of antibody responses was defined as the period of time during which wtVNA and S-ELISA titers remained above the lower limit of quantification. A total of 442 wtVNA and 1,185 S-ELISA titers from 82 and 220 participants, respectively, were analyzed following administration of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S (5 × 10¹⁰ viral particles). The mechanistic model adequately described the time course of observed wtVNA and S-ELISA serum titers and its associated variability up to 8 months following vaccination. Mechanistic model-based simulations show that single-dose Ad26.COV2.S elicits durable but waning antibody responses up to 24 months following immunization. Of the estimated model parameters, the production rate of memory B cells was decreased in older adults relative to younger adults, and the antibody production rate mediated by long-lived plasma cells was increased in women relative to men. A steeper waning of antibody responses was predicted in men and in older adults.