Nontraditional Risk Factors for Progression Through Chronic Kidney Disease Risk Categories: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study

Background: There may be nontraditional pathways of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression that are complementary to classical pathways. Therefore, we aimed to examine nontraditional risk factors for incident CKD and its progression.

Methods: We used the generally healthy population (n = 4382) starting at age 27-41 years in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) cohort, which is an observational longitudinal study. Nontraditional risk factors included forced vital capacity, inflammation, serum urate, and serum carotenoids. CKD risk category was classified using the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) measured in 1995-1996 and repeated every 5 years for 20 years: No CKD, low risk, moderate risk, high risk, and very high risk.

Results: At baseline, 84.8% had no CKD (eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m² and UACR <10 mg/g), 10.3% were in the low risk (eGFR ≥60 and UACR 10-29), and 4.9% had CKD (eGFR <60 and/or UACR ≥ 30). Nontraditional risk factors were significantly associated with the progression of CKD to higher categories. Hazard ratios per standard deviation of the predictor for incident CKD and its progression from the No CKD and low and moderate risk into CKD were inverse for forced vital capacity and serum carotenoids and positive for serum urate, GlycA, and C-reactive protein, the first 3 even after adjustment for conventional risk factors.

Conclusion: Several nontraditional markers were significantly associated with an increased risk of progression to higher CKD categories in generally healthy young to middle-aged adults.