A Growing Divide? Social Determinants of the Use of Nonoperative Management of Rectal Cancer and Its Impact on Survival

Introduction: Nonoperative management (NOM) of locally advanced rectal cancer was described as early as 2004. Initial national data demonstrated increase in utilization of NOM from 1998 to 2010, but newer national utilization data are not available.

Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study using the National Cancer Database to assess utilization and 5-y overall survival (OS) of NOM of locally advanced rectal cancer. All patients had American Joint Committee on Cancer stage 2 or 3 rectal cancer, were over 40 y old, received both chemotherapy and radiation therapy, and were not being treated with palliative intent.

Results: 74,780 patients were analyzed. 64,540 (86.2%) underwent a definitive resection, 10,330 (13.8%) had NOM. Utilization of NOM steadily increased from 11.3% in 2010 to 18.6% in 2018. Multivariate regression identified the highest predictors of utilization of NOM to be uninsured status, government insurance, Black race, and treatment at a community cancer center. Multivariate regression identified NOM as the highest hazard for mortality (hazard ratio = 2.286, confidence interval 2.209-2.366). After propensity score matching, the mean estimated 5-y OS was 52.0% for those managed operatively compared to 39.8% for those managed nonoperatively.

Conclusions: From 2004 to 2018, the utilization of NOM of locally advanced rectal cancer significantly increased. However, there was a significant discrepancy in OS in comparison to surgical resection for these patients. Further study is needed to determine the long-term oncologic safety of NOM.