Preoperative Serum Calcium Level Predicts Postoperative Mortality in Older Adult Patients with Hip Fracture: A Prospective Cohort Study of 2333 Patients

Objectives: Hip fractures are a significant cause of mortality among older adults. However, predictive markers for an unfavorable prognosis are still lacking. Serum calcium is an essential element in several biochemical reactions in the body. This study investigated the role of the preoperative serum calcium level as a prognostic parameter for postoperative mortality in older adult patients with hip fractures.

Design: We conducted a prospective cohort study at the trauma center in our hospital, from January 1, 2015, to September 30, 2019. A total of 2333 older patients with hip fractures were recruited. This prospective cohort study was conducted in accordance with the criteria of STROCSS.

Setting and participants: Older adult patients with hip fractures were screened between January 2015 and September 2019 at the trauma center of our hospital.

Methods: Demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients were collected. Linear and nonlinear multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify the association between preoperative serum calcium level and all-cause mortality. All analyses were performed using EmpowerStats and the R software.

Results: A total of 2333 older adult patients with hip fractures were included in the study. The mean follow-up was 37.5 months. Overall, 770 patients (33%) died of all causes. The preoperative serum calcium concentrations were 2.18 ± 0.13 mmol/L. Linear multivariate Cox regression models showed that preoperative serum calcium levels were associated with mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.37, 95% CI 0.21-0.67; P = .0009] after adjusting for confounders. However, the linear association was unstable, and nonlinearity was identified. A preoperative serum calcium level of 2.3 mmol/L was an inflection point for prediction. When the preoperative serum calcium concentration was below 2.3 mmol/L, serum calcium concentration increased by 1 mmol/L, and mortality risk decreased by 77% (HR 0.23, 95% CI 0.13-0.43, P < .0001). In contrast, when the preoperative serum calcium concentration was more significant than 2.3 mmol/L, the mortality risk increased with serum calcium concentration (HR 6.27, 95% CI 1.65-23.74, P = .0069).

Conclusions and implications: The preoperative serum calcium level is nonlinearly associated with mortality in older adults with hip fractures, with a U-shaped association, and could be used as a potential predictor of prognosis.