Predicting the Risk of Sleep Disorders Using a Machine Learning-Based Simple Questionnaire: Development and Validation Study

Background: Sleep disorders, such as obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), comorbid insomnia and sleep apnea (COMISA), and insomnia are common and can have serious health consequences. However, accurately diagnosing these conditions can be challenging as a result of the underrecognition of these diseases, the time-intensive nature of sleep monitoring necessary for a proper diagnosis, and patients' hesitancy to undergo demanding and costly overnight polysomnography tests.

Objective: We aim to develop a machine learning algorithm that can accurately predict the risk of OSA, COMISA, and insomnia with a simple set of questions, without the need for a polysomnography test.

Methods: We applied extreme gradient boosting to the data from 2 medical centers (n=4257 from Samsung Medical Center and n=365 from Ewha Womans University Medical Center Seoul Hospital). Features were selected based on feature importance calculated by the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method. We applied extreme gradient boosting using selected features to develop a simple questionnaire predicting sleep disorders (SLEEPS). The accuracy of the algorithm was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve.

Results: In total, 9 features were selected to construct SLEEPS. SLEEPS showed high accuracy, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of greater than 0.897 for all 3 sleep disorders, and consistent performance across both sets of data. We found that the distinction between COMISA and OSA was critical for accurate prediction. A publicly accessible website was created based on the algorithm that provides predictions for the risk of the 3 sleep disorders and shows how the risk changes with changes in weight or age.

Conclusions: SLEEPS has the potential to improve the diagnosis and treatment of sleep disorders by providing more accessibility and convenience. The creation of a publicly accessible website based on the algorithm provides a user-friendly tool for assessing the risk of OSA, COMISA, and insomnia.