Effectiveness of the Modified Vaccinia Ankara Vaccine Against Mpox in Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis, Seattle, Washington

Background: Data on modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA) vaccine effectiveness against mpox in real-world settings are limited.

Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the association between vaccination and laboratory-confirmed mpox incidence. Study subjects included all men who have sex with men seen in a sexual health clinic in Seattle, Washington, between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2022. Subjects' receipt of vaccine and diagnosis with mpox were ascertained from public health vaccine registry and surveillance data. Analyses were adjusted for demographic factors, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, and sexual risk behaviors.

Results: The incidence of mpox per 100 person-years was 8.83 among patients with 0 doses, 3.32 among patients with 1 dose, and 0.78 among patients with 2 doses of MVA vaccine. Mpox diagnosis was significantly associated with age category 30-39 and 40-51 years, HIV positivity, syphilis diagnosis in the prior year, >10 sex partners in the last year, and having a clinic visit in the last year. In the multivariate model adjusting for these factors, vaccine effectiveness was 81% for 1 dose and 83% for 2 doses.

Conclusions: These data support the effectiveness of the MVA vaccine-including a single dose of the vaccine-in preventing mpox disease and highlight the appropriateness of risk factor-based prioritization of immunization early in the epidemic. The durability of MVA vaccine-induced immunity is unknown, and at-risk persons should receive 2 doses of MVA.